:00:23. > :00:30.Hello, and welcome to This Week's World. Is the party over? Wilbur
:00:31. > :00:33.will never get rich "Mac or hear from the former US Treasury
:00:34. > :00:37.Secretary things global growth has gone for good. The meat of the
:00:38. > :00:41.Brazilians who bet on a boom, now their town is bust. The developers
:00:42. > :00:48.programme to one big idea, that everything would get back to normal
:00:49. > :00:52.after the crash, what if that is wrong? We will chat from a few of
:00:53. > :00:57.the stories making waves. My city of the week is Berlin, the German
:00:58. > :01:03.capital has passed a law banning air B from operating there because the
:01:04. > :01:07.authorities say the firm, which encourages people to let out their
:01:08. > :01:13.homes, is making Germany's housing shortage worse. Being German, they
:01:14. > :01:22.even have a word for the new law. It is... You can read that yourself!
:01:23. > :01:29.Nice to have you both here. We will kick off with close encounter of the
:01:30. > :01:35.week. This was a much awaited encounter between making Kelly and
:01:36. > :01:41.Donald Trump in America. You will remember last August during the
:01:42. > :01:46.presidential Bates, making Kelly asked for Trump a difficult
:01:47. > :01:54.question. You have called woman you don't like slabs and disgusting
:01:55. > :01:57.animals. She has been chasing him for an interview, and this week,
:01:58. > :02:02.there was this famous broadcast. What was weird about it is it is
:02:03. > :02:05.obvious double trap is going after the female bird can he has a big
:02:06. > :02:13.problem, Hillary Clinton is well ahead. -- the no vote. But this was
:02:14. > :02:17.a different kind of Donald Trump, a soft, more emotional Donald Trump,
:02:18. > :02:22.he was asked "What he had retweeted the assertion that she was a bimbo
:02:23. > :02:30.and he played dumb. He said, was that many? Did I do that? This is
:02:31. > :02:37.the evolution of Donald Trump from candidate to serious presidential
:02:38. > :02:41.contender. This is probably the week where we have to start saying, this
:02:42. > :02:45.guy is series. All around the world we have seen big machismo characters
:02:46. > :02:50.coming to power, we may need to start thinking they were when.
:02:51. > :02:56.That's a thought and a half! Will Collier was conspiracy of the week.
:02:57. > :03:04.It is incredibly disaster to come out of Iran. In recent weeks there
:03:05. > :03:08.has been a crackdown of Instagram models and fashion photographers,
:03:09. > :03:11.designers, and a few of them have been arrested in the last couple of
:03:12. > :03:18.days. The reason the standout is it is the first time they have actively
:03:19. > :03:22.sought after influential people online -- the reason this stands
:03:23. > :03:27.out. So Instagram stars have been targeted, but the bizarre turn in
:03:28. > :03:32.the last day or so that has stood out is the Iranian authorities are
:03:33. > :03:41.now saying that Kim Kardashian is part of some plot with Instagram to
:03:42. > :03:45.influence the culture in Iran, and going against essentially what they
:03:46. > :03:53.want. Is that of fear, tangible fear? It's unlike anything that has
:03:54. > :03:57.ever happened before. People are very critical of popular culture and
:03:58. > :04:00.Kim Kardashian that this is the first time a government is actively
:04:01. > :04:07.says, she is a threat to our society. One of the most
:04:08. > :04:11.extraordinary story of the week, long overdue rescue of the week, is
:04:12. > :04:17.what happened in Nigeria. A couple of years ago, there was a widely
:04:18. > :04:20.reported incident where Boko Haram, and nasty Islamist radical group,
:04:21. > :04:27.waiting to school and kidnapped nearly 300 girls, 219 were taken
:04:28. > :04:30.into hiding and as far as we know treated appallingly, raped and
:04:31. > :04:33.tortured. This week there was a wonderful story of one of the girls
:04:34. > :04:38.escaping, they don't quite know how exactly that is the first sign of
:04:39. > :04:43.the vulnerability of Boko Haram, that one of them might be able to
:04:44. > :04:47.get away. She has met this week with the new president of Nigeria,
:04:48. > :04:53.Bihari, and he came to power last year succeeding Goodluck Jonathan,
:04:54. > :04:58.who was widely succeeded as weak and ineffective, all around this world,
:04:59. > :05:03.we are seeing people looking for strong leadership to hold countries
:05:04. > :05:12.together, and Nigeria is one of the most important countries in Africa,
:05:13. > :05:17.it is kind of December integrating. The -- disintegrating. The president
:05:18. > :05:25.is going to use this interview, this meeting he had with one of the girls
:05:26. > :05:28.from Chibok, as a way to try and mobilise popular support and say,
:05:29. > :05:32.let's take the fight to Boko Haram. You are going to tell us about the
:05:33. > :05:39.sharp elbow of the week! That's one way of putting it! Just intruder,
:05:40. > :05:50.Canadian Prime Minister, who in the public eye, no last year or so, has
:05:51. > :05:53.shut out of nowhere. -- Justin Trudeau. He recently kicked up a
:05:54. > :05:59.fuss because in Parliament, he was rushing over age, and he claims he
:06:00. > :06:05.accidentally knocked a female politician with his elbow. He said
:06:06. > :06:08.he was trying to grab this other person in Parliament to drag him
:06:09. > :06:14.over to another part of parliament, and it kicked up a fuss, where
:06:15. > :06:17.people caught out on Twitter and was saying, this completely
:06:18. > :06:22.unacceptable. Does it feel like the honeymoon is over? There are a lot
:06:23. > :06:28.of people who want to knocking down a peg or two, he is a guy, glamorous
:06:29. > :06:33.family, poses naked, all that kind of thing, a lot of people are out to
:06:34. > :06:37.get him. He's one of the few politicians around the world who is
:06:38. > :06:41.notably centre-left. The centre-left is having a bad time around the
:06:42. > :06:46.world so there are a lot of people who want to take him down. The
:06:47. > :06:52.apology he gave this week, he looked like he was about to cry. Apologise
:06:53. > :06:59.to the member and to all parliamentarians. He said, I am so
:07:00. > :07:03.sorry, if I have impacted anyone, I am so, so sorry. There is a
:07:04. > :07:10.vulnerability there that may Donald Trump take note of. On today's big
:07:11. > :07:14.idea, you may not have heard the phrase secular stagnation, we hadn't
:07:15. > :07:18.until this programme but it is the than some economists are using to
:07:19. > :07:20.describe the fact that however hard you work, you may barely get any
:07:21. > :07:30.richer. For decades now politicians have
:07:31. > :07:38.been able to tell us we are getting richer. A world becoming homeowners,
:07:39. > :07:42.car owners, holiday-makers. They have been able to promise this
:07:43. > :07:46.because globally, the economic growth rate seemed to be on an ever
:07:47. > :07:52.upward trajectory. Everything the world powers did after the 2008
:07:53. > :07:54.crash, the bailouts, the stimulus, quantitative easing, were based on
:07:55. > :08:03.the assumption that growth would return. Extra growth, extra jobs. A
:08:04. > :08:06.new and ocean for growth. Eight years on, the rate of growth
:08:07. > :08:11.continues to disappoint, falling well below what our politicians told
:08:12. > :08:15.us to expect. Many fear that something has permanently shifted in
:08:16. > :08:22.the underlying economy. But what could that be?
:08:23. > :08:29.Front man is associated with that phrase secular stagnation was on
:08:30. > :08:31.anyone else, he is Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary who
:08:32. > :08:39.worked for Bill Clinton, and advised Obama. Secular in this sense means
:08:40. > :08:43.permanent or chronic said think the world economy has fundamentally
:08:44. > :08:47.changed? Globally we have had for some substantial time a chronic
:08:48. > :08:54.excess of desired saving over desired investment. That means more
:08:55. > :08:58.funds being supplied them are demanded, that means extremely low
:08:59. > :09:02.interest rates, it means a tendency towards a slow growth, it means
:09:03. > :09:06.those periods where the economy grows reasonably well are periods of
:09:07. > :09:10.very large credit expansion, supported by low interest rates,
:09:11. > :09:17.that raise challenges for financial stability down the road. Secular
:09:18. > :09:22.essentially, in this context means ongoing or permanent. How long do
:09:23. > :09:27.you think this will last? I think this is with us for the foreseeable
:09:28. > :09:33.future. And there has been consistent disappointment about the
:09:34. > :09:38.recovery, and quite a long time globally since we have had good
:09:39. > :09:45.growth with a sustainable and sound foundation. Do you feel that the US
:09:46. > :09:48.is close to recession again? Now, I think that would be too strong a
:09:49. > :09:52.statement but I do think the odds are better than 50-50 that the US
:09:53. > :09:56.will have a recession within the next three years and I think when
:09:57. > :10:03.that happens, if that happens, there won't be anything like normal
:10:04. > :10:09.capacity for monetary response. Traditionally in recessions, it is
:10:10. > :10:13.unlikely that they will be anything like that much room to bring down
:10:14. > :10:18.just rates, that means we're going to have to do things in a different
:10:19. > :10:22.way. If I asked you for the chances when you're talking about the UK or
:10:23. > :10:29.Europe, would you put it roughly the same? In the same general rage, I
:10:30. > :10:33.don't want to assign a specific ability but what we have to keep in
:10:34. > :10:40.mind is that not a single recession has been forecast a year in advance
:10:41. > :10:46.by much of anybody, not the IMF, not the US Federal reserve, but the Bank
:10:47. > :10:49.of England. So the fact that we don't see recession forecasts right
:10:50. > :10:57.now doesn't mean that they isn't a reasonable chance of recession. And
:10:58. > :11:03.is there anything in the kind of politics we are seeing in the US
:11:04. > :11:06.right now that proves your point? I think the slowdown and the
:11:07. > :11:09.frustration, the lack of opportunities that a weak economy
:11:10. > :11:15.has for a large number of people is striding politics in many places,
:11:16. > :11:22.driving the Brexit movement in the UK, driving the rise of Mr left in
:11:23. > :11:26.France, and I think it has a lot to do with the ascendancy of double
:11:27. > :11:33.Trump in the Republican party in the US. We have tried quantitative
:11:34. > :11:37.easing, low interest rates, neither has done the trick entirely, do we
:11:38. > :11:46.need a new tool to kick-start the economy? I think we need more rights
:11:47. > :11:49.and recognition of the role of fiscal policy in economic
:11:50. > :11:51.stabilisation. That means a willingness particularly in
:11:52. > :11:58.countries like mine, where public investment has lagged badly, to
:11:59. > :12:02.invest substantially in maintaining the existing infrastructure and
:12:03. > :12:06.creating new infrastructure, that puts people to work in the short
:12:07. > :12:12.run, that expands capacity in the medium run, and it removes the
:12:13. > :12:17.terrible deficit burden that is presented by deferred maintenance.
:12:18. > :12:20.But we have seen massive stimulus packages under the Obama
:12:21. > :12:23.administration, we know that when you spend money, you get countries
:12:24. > :12:28.into higher debt, that can't be the solution. You say that, but in fact
:12:29. > :12:32.if you look, the Obama Administration to engage in
:12:33. > :12:36.large-scale spending in the last to back her first two years and you saw
:12:37. > :12:43.the sharpest move from contraction to expansion in the postwar history
:12:44. > :12:49.of the US. Then on the congressional pressure, there was a shift back to
:12:50. > :12:56.austerity in 2011, at which point results in the economy became very
:12:57. > :13:01.substantially mediocre. Thank you. So in Economist explained by looking
:13:02. > :13:05.at saving and investment but what of their an even more radical idea?
:13:06. > :13:10.Haven't given up on evolution by not having enough babies? The rate of
:13:11. > :13:15.publishing growth has slowed dramatically. Is the workforce now
:13:16. > :14:37.becoming too small? -- the rate of population growth.
:14:38. > :14:47.After the crash of 2008, the developed world looked towards the
:14:48. > :14:53.new kids on the block, the so-called Brix economies. We hope they would
:14:54. > :14:57.bring the world but perhaps the opposite has happened. We have been
:14:58. > :15:03.to Itaborai, outside Rio. At one saw itself as the heart of Brazil's
:15:04. > :19:36.economic revolution, and looked one -- and look what happened.
:19:37. > :19:48.Lets get the view of the Brics and of Europe about the idea that growth
:19:49. > :19:50.has slowed for good. With me as a representative of the European
:19:51. > :19:54.Central Bank, who managed to keep the bank afloat during the crisis,
:19:55. > :19:58.and the man responsible for rebuilding the South African economy
:19:59. > :20:02.after apartheid. Thank you for joining us. Do you agree with Larry
:20:03. > :20:08.Summers that we are now in an ear of permanent low growth? I partly agree
:20:09. > :20:13.and partly disagree. I consider that it is true that the ageing of the
:20:14. > :20:16.population all over the world, and particularly in the advanced
:20:17. > :20:22.economy, is a factor which is adverse in terms of growth. Very
:20:23. > :20:28.adverse, I would say. On the other hand, it is also true that the kind
:20:29. > :20:33.of growth that we had during the previous period, before the crisis,
:20:34. > :20:38.was partly artificial and partly based on a very high level of
:20:39. > :20:42.overindebtedness. And that is the reason why we have the greatest. So
:20:43. > :20:48.if you take those two elements, you can explain why we should expect
:20:49. > :20:53.medium and long-term growth inferior to what we had observed in this
:20:54. > :20:57.bright period before the crisis. Is that right now, that essentially we
:20:58. > :21:01.have to wave goodbye to this idea of ever coming back to precrisis
:21:02. > :21:07.levels? In the first instance, I don't agree that there is anything
:21:08. > :21:14.permanent about the current low growth, low inflation, low interest
:21:15. > :21:18.rate environment. But I think the idea that central banks are the only
:21:19. > :21:23.ones who are capable of uplifting the global economy once again is
:21:24. > :21:30.wrong. I think we must now put the responsibility squarely on the part
:21:31. > :21:34.of governments to do their bit in terms of structural reforms, which
:21:35. > :21:41.are necessary to get us from where we are now, and no longer rely on
:21:42. > :21:45.central banks and cheap money. And I think if the governments of Europe,
:21:46. > :21:48.in particular, and the United States take on structural reforms, we could
:21:49. > :21:54.get out of this situation much sooner than we think. What do you
:21:55. > :21:58.say to that, that the central banks can't manage this problem? In a way,
:21:59. > :22:04.I fully agree that if we could embark on active reforms, we would
:22:05. > :22:10.certainly elevate the growth potential. Also, I have to say I am
:22:11. > :22:16.convinced that IT, science and the and the advances that we are making
:22:17. > :22:21.at the moment are something which is positive for total productivity and
:22:22. > :22:26.I'm sure that we will see this materialising in the years to come.
:22:27. > :22:32.So, as you see, I am much more optimistic than Larry, still
:22:33. > :22:38.depending on the structural reforms and Tito has a point. Do you think
:22:39. > :22:43.that increasing the supply of money is working? There was a period
:22:44. > :22:50.during which the quantitative easing strategies were working for a while.
:22:51. > :22:55.Now we are getting to negative banking rates. That is very
:22:56. > :22:58.dangerous, because it is going to bring about new structural
:22:59. > :23:04.impediments within the banking systems. The point has been made
:23:05. > :23:09.that one thing that started as an extraordinary measure it now seems
:23:10. > :23:14.commonplace. Do you think that authorities have run out of tools?
:23:15. > :23:19.That none of the ordinary tools are working any more, to kick-start the
:23:20. > :23:25.economy? First of all, we have to recognise that the measures that are
:23:26. > :23:32.taken and maintained today are absolutely extraordinary. But that
:23:33. > :23:35.doesn't mean that they are wrong. The counterfactual would probably be
:23:36. > :23:39.that the situation would probably be much worse. Do you sense, for
:23:40. > :23:46.example in Europe, that Brexit would make any difference to your's
:23:47. > :23:49.growth? I think it would make Anna Norris -- make an enormous
:23:50. > :23:53.difference for the UK because the losses gigantic if the UK decides to
:23:54. > :23:58.leave, not only economically and financially but more so even
:23:59. > :24:04.politically because perhaps part of the UK would decide to leave. So,
:24:05. > :24:09.again, I'm in full agreement with Mark Carney, with Gordon Brown, with
:24:10. > :24:15.the UK Prime Minister, when they say that we must stay, we must stay. You
:24:16. > :24:21.don't think it is wrong for a central banker like Mark Carney to
:24:22. > :24:27.step into a political row? No, I think that central banks, as I said,
:24:28. > :24:31.have to tell what they see. They should not, and are not,
:24:32. > :24:36.substituting governments, parliaments, and the private sector,
:24:37. > :24:40.but there is an obligation, it seems to me, in the present situation,
:24:41. > :24:46.which is extremely grave, in all advanced economies and in the global
:24:47. > :24:51.economy as a whole, for the central bank to say candidly what they see.
:24:52. > :24:56.We talked a little bit about Europe. When you look at what is happening
:24:57. > :25:00.in Brazil and the Brics, do you think that that era of growth, that
:25:01. > :25:05.expectation that was placed on the Brics countries, is now over except
:25:06. > :25:10.for China? I don't think it's over yet and I think that there is a lot
:25:11. > :25:16.that the Brics countries can offer. They need to focus in particular on
:25:17. > :25:19.major infrastructure development programmes that will facilitate
:25:20. > :25:25.further economic movement and development in their countries. They
:25:26. > :25:28.also must engage in structural reforms, labour reforms
:25:29. > :25:34.particularly, as well as reforms in the education system is, that must
:25:35. > :25:41.tie in with the new demands. So I have not given up yet on growth
:25:42. > :25:46.coming from the Brics countries. In fact, as part of our work in the
:25:47. > :25:53.Brics bank, about which I am a director, we try and push very much
:25:54. > :25:57.the development of these economies investing in renewable energies and
:25:58. > :26:00.so forth. Let me mention one thing that is very important in the
:26:01. > :26:05.conversation about structural reforms. One of the major structural
:26:06. > :26:08.reforms that must be undertaken and concluded is the world trade
:26:09. > :26:14.negotiations. Those negotiations must conclude. They are important
:26:15. > :26:22.part of the structural overhang in the global economy. Lastly, do you
:26:23. > :26:28.think, if we don't see growth return to the eurozone in a big way, do you
:26:29. > :26:33.feel, as some commentators do, that the euro itself is in trouble? First
:26:34. > :26:39.of all, my working assumption is that growth is proceeding in Europe.
:26:40. > :26:46.Second, you might remember that in the first quarter of this year, we
:26:47. > :26:53.boasted 0.5%, which was annualised a little more than what is given by
:26:54. > :26:58.the various financial institutions. So I take it that growth will
:26:59. > :27:02.progressively materialised. That depends on the structural reform.
:27:03. > :27:08.That depends on appropriate management, appropriate governance,
:27:09. > :27:12.and I am, of course, calling permanently myself or more to be
:27:13. > :27:15.done this respect. Thank you both. That's it from This Week's World but
:27:16. > :27:19.this week the actor Robin Wright revealed she had threatened to go
:27:20. > :27:25.public about being paid less than Kevin Spacey in House Of Cards. It
:27:26. > :27:29.worked, they are now both paid the same. We caught up with another
:27:30. > :27:34.woman who talked about a pay gap tax.
:27:35. > :27:41.All around the world, women are still getting paid less than men. I
:27:42. > :27:46.got paid what? It is naturally quite simple, I think. We introduce the
:27:47. > :27:51.pay gap tax. The pay gap tax is a tax that is paid to all the women in
:27:52. > :27:54.your company. By looking at the average amount that a man gets paid
:27:55. > :27:59.and the average amount woman gets paid, that difference is page to all
:28:00. > :28:03.the women in the company, regardless of performance, regardless of
:28:04. > :28:08.position to top it gives companies and incentive to really solve the
:28:09. > :28:17.deeper issues that are at the heart, to do with gender and diversity in
:28:18. > :28:23.the workplace. But this is unfair on men, isn't it? I definitely don't
:28:24. > :28:27.think it is unfair on men. Women have been facing issues for
:28:28. > :28:30.centuries. It is only now that people are starting to talk about
:28:31. > :28:32.how we can make the workplace and much more equal and safe and happy
:28:33. > :28:35.place.