:00:24. > :00:28.Hello and welcome to This Week's World. Today we tackled the
:00:29. > :00:33.programme of Islamic extremism head-on. Where does it come from?
:00:34. > :00:36.Where will it all end up? We hear from somebody close to the Muslim
:00:37. > :00:44.Brotherhood and we talk to Tony Blair. I have real humility about
:00:45. > :00:47.the decisions I took and the issues around them. I was trying to deal
:00:48. > :00:54.with this in the aftermath of 9/11 and it was very difficult. What is
:00:55. > :00:59.the legacy of the decisions he took? We are on the ground in rack. We are
:01:00. > :01:07.asking if Vladimir Putin is trying to break up the EU. Before that we
:01:08. > :01:11.ask our panel. We start with the number 1238, the number of delegates
:01:12. > :01:15.Donald Trump secured midweek to get him over the line to be the
:01:16. > :01:20.Republican presidential candidate. $6, that is the amount TV chef
:01:21. > :01:31.Anthony Boyd and spent on dinner for President Obama in Hanoi street
:01:32. > :01:36.cafe. The President's visited yet known and lifted a long-standing
:01:37. > :01:40.arms embargo. 8% is the amount Venezuela's economy is expected to
:01:41. > :01:44.shrink by in the next year amid a devastating food and energy
:01:45. > :01:52.shortage. As the company continues to fall apart, Venezuelans are
:01:53. > :01:56.sourcing the basics like medicine, bread and toilet paper. 51 degrees
:01:57. > :02:03.is the highest temperature that has been recorded in India. The heat
:02:04. > :02:06.wave has struck as the country is dealing with a major drought and
:02:07. > :02:16.water shortages that have affected 300 million people. Now we are
:02:17. > :02:22.joined by a banker turned journalist. You have picked out a
:02:23. > :02:27.female fighter pilot. There is a Ukrainian female fighter pilot who
:02:28. > :02:31.has been released from prison in Russia and swapped back for a couple
:02:32. > :02:37.of Russian prisoners. In a world where no one is able to land a glove
:02:38. > :02:42.on Vladimir Putin and his regime she has been lighting it up in prison in
:02:43. > :02:46.Russia. She has sworn at the judge, she has shouted in front of TV
:02:47. > :02:50.cameras, she has made fun of Vladimir Putin and she has managed
:02:51. > :02:55.to get release from prison without asking for clemency to the extent
:02:56. > :02:59.that Putin had to pretend that the families of the alleged victims of
:03:00. > :03:04.this woman had themselves asked for clemency for her to save face. She
:03:05. > :03:13.landed in the Ukraine a couple of days ago and she thanked those who
:03:14. > :03:22.supported her, those who did not. And she flipped Putin a bird. She
:03:23. > :03:27.did. Another strong female voice is coming through in your pick. You
:03:28. > :03:34.call it the hot drink of the week. Being Iranian the hot drink of the
:03:35. > :03:40.week must be a cup of tea. This is an cup of tea that one of the
:03:41. > :03:49.founders of the Iranian revolution, one of the closest disciples of
:03:50. > :03:59.Ayatollah Khamenei, and of the largest minority in Iran and are
:04:00. > :04:02.these people who are denied many citizens' writes. When I worked in
:04:03. > :04:09.Iran I could not discuss many issues, they called them red lines.
:04:10. > :04:16.For the daughter of a founder of the Iranian revolution meeting the
:04:17. > :04:20.leader is revolutionary. That was the hot drink that shook Iran. I am
:04:21. > :04:28.going to go to something slightly more muscular. This is the smack
:04:29. > :04:42.down of the week. Hulk Hogan, the wrestler, sued Gorka by leaking a
:04:43. > :04:48.video tape of him. It is a gossip website yes, it is a celebrity
:04:49. > :04:53.website that reveals a lot about celebrity sex lives and outs a lot
:04:54. > :04:56.of popular people as gay. He took them to court and he won and he got
:04:57. > :05:03.a huge settlement. Gorka is struggling to pay. It is a very
:05:04. > :05:09.popular site because it is unsavoury and plays quite dirty. But what has
:05:10. > :05:12.galvanised the media establishment against Hogan unexpectedly in
:05:13. > :05:19.support of Gorka is it has been revealed as silicon valley
:05:20. > :05:23.billionaire has financed Hulk Hogan's campaign against Gorka in
:05:24. > :05:28.order to bankrupt them because Gorka outed him as a four years ago. It
:05:29. > :05:33.set off this counterintuitive alignment of interests because
:05:34. > :05:36.people who are not fans of Gorka are supporting it because they feel
:05:37. > :05:39.private interests should not have the right to destroy media
:05:40. > :05:46.establishment because they can afford to. I get the last word to
:05:47. > :05:53.you. We could go with a poem of the week or organ of the week? Stories
:05:54. > :06:01.about this Burmese poet who wrote a five line poem and in the poem he
:06:02. > :06:07.says that he has a tattoo of the President on his penis. Can I say
:06:08. > :06:13.penis on television? You just have. So he has that tattoo and he just
:06:14. > :06:19.got married and his newlywed saw the tattoo and she is horrified,
:06:20. > :06:25.inconsolably horrified. Because of that he went to prison. The wider
:06:26. > :06:30.point is this is happening in Burma when you think things have started
:06:31. > :06:34.to change. And that is what surprised them, but there are many
:06:35. > :06:39.similarities between Iran and Burma in the sense that even though there
:06:40. > :06:44.are forces for reform in the executive branch, the judiciary, the
:06:45. > :06:48.courts, are still in the hands of a very small clique of people. In Iran
:06:49. > :06:56.you have the clerics who are holding the key to the courts. I have served
:06:57. > :07:02.time in an Iranian jail, I was arrested because of an article I
:07:03. > :07:08.wrote. This man, he was sent to jail by courts which are in the hands of
:07:09. > :07:14.the military in Burma. It is very interesting. We have to finish on a
:07:15. > :07:21.high note. He said that the Government of Burma if it wants to
:07:22. > :07:24.be an efficient and good Government, it has to understand poetry. With
:07:25. > :07:30.much of the Middle East involved in bitter conflict programmer will be
:07:31. > :07:34.taking a look at new ideas about how to fight violent extremists at
:07:35. > :07:41.Islamic State. We will hear from Tony Blair and his critics. What can
:07:42. > :07:45.be done to end the brutality done in Islam's name. Islamist is a
:07:46. > :07:50.controversial term, it is meant to describe something different to the
:07:51. > :07:55.faith. It is a set of political ideologies tied to religious
:07:56. > :07:58.principles. The 20th century saw various peaceful Muslim parties
:07:59. > :08:04.emerge. They believed the state should be based on sharia law and
:08:05. > :08:09.principles. From 1979, small but ever more violent splinter group
:08:10. > :08:15.spun off from them. Sunni extremist groups supported jihad, a holy war,
:08:16. > :08:20.against Russia in Afghanistan. That year the Shah of Iran was
:08:21. > :08:23.overthrown. As British Prime Minister Tony Blair was part of the
:08:24. > :08:28.global response which began with the war aiming to root out extremists in
:08:29. > :08:36.Afghanistan. Then there is 2003 and rack. Previously secular, the
:08:37. > :08:41.country became a magnet for foreign jihadis and they took swathes of
:08:42. > :08:46.territory. Until last year, Tony Blair was Middle East peace envoy,
:08:47. > :08:51.nobody is arguing for a new approach. Not just fighting a small
:08:52. > :08:52.group of violent fanatics, but countering the broader ideologies of
:08:53. > :09:10.Islamism. I think the ideology of Islamism
:09:11. > :09:13.and the idea that you have a view of religion that governs politics,
:09:14. > :09:15.society, the economy, the way people live, work and think,
:09:16. > :09:19.I think it is certainly in its more extreme forms the single biggest
:09:20. > :09:21.threat that we face today. And how many people do you think
:09:22. > :09:24.share that ideology? The numbers of people
:09:25. > :09:26.who engage in fanaticism, who engage in the terrorist
:09:27. > :09:28.activities, are relatively small. You can number those
:09:29. > :09:30.in tens of thousands. The numbers who believe significant
:09:31. > :09:32.parts of the ideology I think In some of these radical clerics
:09:33. > :09:47.they will have Twitter followings The Muslim Brotherhood, and not all
:09:48. > :09:52.parts of them think the same, but many parts of the Muslim Brotherhood
:09:53. > :09:58.who share a pretty extreme view of the world, their membership goes
:09:59. > :10:03.into many millions. You would describe those people as extremists?
:10:04. > :10:10.The Queen's speech spoke of counter extremism measures. Would you try to
:10:11. > :10:14.clamp down on what they believe? You cannot stop people believing what
:10:15. > :10:19.they believe, but you can count on it because it is important, and you
:10:20. > :10:27.can make sure that young people are educated to a way of thinking about
:10:28. > :10:30.others. We need to come together in a global commitment on education
:10:31. > :10:34.where countries agree that within their education systems they will
:10:35. > :10:39.promote cultural tolerance and we doubt prejudice. They should do that
:10:40. > :10:44.with systems that are formal and informal. If you end up polluting
:10:45. > :10:49.the mind of young people in your country, in today's world where the
:10:50. > :10:52.boundaries come down and there is more migration and integration, that
:10:53. > :10:57.is a problem not just for your country, but it is a problem for all
:10:58. > :11:00.of us. You have stressed how important it is that countries
:11:01. > :11:04.around the world in the Middle East get to choose their own leaders. You
:11:05. > :11:11.side with the democratic process that elected the Muslim Brotherhood
:11:12. > :11:14.in Egypt? I signed up with the democratic process. The Muslim
:11:15. > :11:18.Brotherhood were a real problem for Egypt and the reason why you had
:11:19. > :11:22.that popular revolt were millions of people came out on the street is
:11:23. > :11:28.that having experienced that Government and seeing how they were
:11:29. > :11:31.effectively taking the basic norms of society away and distorting them,
:11:32. > :11:38.I also supported the counter revolution that removed them. Isn't
:11:39. > :11:44.it that we like democracy until it throws up the wrong answer? I do not
:11:45. > :11:49.think that is fair. There are a lot of democratic results we do not
:11:50. > :11:52.agree with. If you get people who are democratically elected, and the
:11:53. > :11:57.Muslim Brotherhood is a very good example of this in Egypt, but then
:11:58. > :12:04.they are systematically taking away the institutions of the country so
:12:05. > :12:09.that if you like it is this election we are going to win, but by the time
:12:10. > :12:13.you get to the next election the rules have significantly changed,
:12:14. > :12:17.then you have a different problem. But ultimately the real question is
:12:18. > :12:22.do you want an economy that is rule-based and a society that is
:12:23. > :12:26.religiously tolerant? Those are the two things that are as important as
:12:27. > :12:33.simply whether you have the vote or do not. Where does a Saudi
:12:34. > :12:38.dictatorship fit into that pattern? It seems that the argument for
:12:39. > :12:43.democracy runs out there. They are a friend, an ally, in your words.
:12:44. > :12:47.Saudi is a classic case where you want it to evolve over time. There
:12:48. > :12:56.are deep-seated challenges economically and socially. I do you
:12:57. > :13:01.agree with democracy or you say let it evolve. But if it is not evolving
:13:02. > :13:05.it is possibly better to let it evolve which preserves the stability
:13:06. > :13:10.of the country and the region. You will be aware that there will be
:13:11. > :13:14.people screaming at their TV screens right now that this man is the
:13:15. > :13:20.problem, the cause, not the solution. But people have to come to
:13:21. > :13:26.their senses on this. You have to track this back over decades. 9/11
:13:27. > :13:33.came before anyone had intervene anywhere. Let's not kid ourselves
:13:34. > :13:37.about this. The problem is when you have these radical Islamist elements
:13:38. > :13:42.stepping into a situation where you have a vacuum of power, then it is
:13:43. > :13:48.so much harder to get the country on its feet and moving forward. That
:13:49. > :13:55.vacuum of power was aided, was created, by the invasion of rack and
:13:56. > :13:59.the removal of the infrastructure? You can save the removal of Saddam
:14:00. > :14:04.created a situation where you had to supply it with a different form of
:14:05. > :14:08.Government. But the people of rack were desperate for change and
:14:09. > :14:11.welcome the fact they had a new Government. What happened there is
:14:12. > :14:15.that into that process of change have come people whose desire has
:14:16. > :14:22.been specifically to disrupt it by terrorism. But the disbanding of the
:14:23. > :14:27.Iraqi army was pointed out as one of the biggest mistakes of the time, do
:14:28. > :14:33.you agree? In retrospect it should not have happened and I understand
:14:34. > :14:37.why people say it. But I say to you that those of us who were there at
:14:38. > :14:42.the time it was a much tougher set of decisions because people were
:14:43. > :14:46.saying, we do not want these people who have been brutalising us over
:14:47. > :14:52.the years to be in charge of us. It is not the root of the problem.
:14:53. > :15:00.Let's take this further. This man is British Iraqi, a hostage negotiator
:15:01. > :15:05.whose father led the Muslim Brotherhood in Iraq. And a former
:15:06. > :15:10.Al-Qaeda operative who for nearly a decade was an agent for the UK
:15:11. > :15:16.Government. Nice to have you both on This Week's World. Tony Blair said
:15:17. > :15:23.Islam is in its extreme form is the biggest single threat we face today.
:15:24. > :15:29.-- Islamism. You see yourself as an Islamist? What does that mean? I
:15:30. > :15:33.have no idea. One of the marks of Tony Blair's interview is the fact
:15:34. > :15:38.that he has listed his thesis with terms that we have no firm
:15:39. > :15:43.definition of. You are correct, I am often described as an Islamist, it
:15:44. > :15:47.was not my choice, I don't know what it means. You would like to see
:15:48. > :15:55.Islam as a central tenet to any state. Then the answer would be no.
:15:56. > :15:58.But that is the problem. I have no platform, apart from this programme,
:15:59. > :16:02.to say, listen, we need to talk about these terms. The way in which
:16:03. > :16:09.this very reductionist, simplistic division of a region, housing
:16:10. > :16:16.hundreds of millions of people of a particular culture, a particular
:16:17. > :16:24.religion, a particular creed... A multitude of races and ethnic uses.
:16:25. > :16:29.-- ethnicities. It is problematic. There is a myriad of elements that
:16:30. > :16:32.make up the region. What is reductionist about saying we need a
:16:33. > :16:39.global interpretation of the values of open-mindedness? It is the fact
:16:40. > :16:43.that according to Tony Blair, history started with 9/11, that is
:16:44. > :16:48.entirely problematic. The fact is this region has had these same
:16:49. > :16:54.people, the same culture and religion, for 14 centuries. And
:16:55. > :16:56.never have we seen the level of violence, the complexity of
:16:57. > :17:03.violence, the sophistication of violence, the advantage of violence
:17:04. > :17:07.as we have seen since 2003. Tony Blair has said that these Islamist
:17:08. > :17:14.ideas are widespread, in the millions. Do you agree? Yes, of
:17:15. > :17:18.course. At the end of the day, I agree that the problem did not start
:17:19. > :17:25.with 9/11, the problem started with 1979, I would say. The year when the
:17:26. > :17:32.great Muslim Civil War, if I could describe it this way, started. The
:17:33. > :17:37.Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Saddam took power in Iraq. Ayatollah
:17:38. > :17:43.Khomeini seized power in Iran. The forces of fundamentalist Muslims,
:17:44. > :17:49.what habits, in Saudi Arabia took over the grand mask briefly. All of
:17:50. > :17:56.these events together paved the way for the rise of the ideology of
:17:57. > :18:02.jihad. -- grandma sew. In order to achieve change on the ground. A
:18:03. > :18:10.problem that is 37 years in the making. US about that ideology of
:18:11. > :18:16.jihad for a time. You were with Al-Qaeda. -- you espoused that
:18:17. > :18:21.ideology. What made you leave? I started to realise we were heading
:18:22. > :18:27.towards a clash of civilisations. That we cannot win. No one will win.
:18:28. > :18:33.Everyone will lose. And this is the realisation that I more or less came
:18:34. > :18:37.to embrace in 1998, after the East Africa bombings in Nairobi and
:18:38. > :18:47.Tanzania. I realised we were heading on a dangerous path. Initial is the
:18:48. > :18:53.can win... I partly agree, with him, but I disagree that he starts with
:18:54. > :19:00.1979. Part of the problem with what Tony Blair is saying is the West is
:19:01. > :19:03.washing its hands of generations, propping up regimes which have
:19:04. > :19:10.brutalised and oppressed. And ultimately led to people thinking
:19:11. > :19:14.there is no way out. Do you mean the West should be washing their hands
:19:15. > :19:19.or not? Do you want intervention or not? I would rather there was no
:19:20. > :19:23.intervention. But I agree with Tony Blair that we live in a global
:19:24. > :19:27.village. We can't say, you know what, you can do as you wish and I
:19:28. > :19:32.will not be affected. We have seen that doesn't work. But at the same
:19:33. > :19:36.time, to say that, listen, all this has nothing to do with me...
:19:37. > :19:40.Everything the West is doing in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, that has
:19:41. > :19:48.nothing to do with me, I have done my bit to help you, and I have clean
:19:49. > :19:51.in terms of my conscience, and all this is upon you... To be fair, he
:19:52. > :19:55.says he is coming back with a solution, which is education. Do you
:19:56. > :20:00.think you can come back and say, we need to re-educate? Of course
:20:01. > :20:04.education is important, but before education you need some peace in the
:20:05. > :20:13.region. Within Muslim factions. Militant Shia is 's are fighting
:20:14. > :20:16.Sunni Islam. People who espouse a political framework, the Muslim
:20:17. > :20:20.Brotherhood, in conflict with the Arab monarchies in the region.
:20:21. > :20:24.Before you can re-educate people, you need to bring them together to
:20:25. > :20:31.have some sort of peace, at least a ceasefire. The forces of
:20:32. > :20:35.sectarianism and fundamentalism, bring the region back from the
:20:36. > :20:41.brink. Unfortunately, we don't see that at all. Gentlemen, thank you.
:20:42. > :20:46.We will hear more from Tony Blair on his legacy later. First, with so
:20:47. > :20:50.much of the critique of him centring around Iraq, what of life on the
:20:51. > :20:57.ground now? Jim Muir has followed the story for decades.
:20:58. > :21:03.Life does still go on here, and sometimes it can
:21:04. > :21:14.But this is not a normal, peaceful country.
:21:15. > :21:18.It's a place of concrete blast walls and barbed wire.
:21:19. > :21:26.A place where people who go shopping in markets get blown to pieces.
:21:27. > :21:28.Where Shia militias, created by Iran, are battling
:21:29. > :21:36.Where government is paralysed by factional rifts.
:21:37. > :21:45.The blitzkrieg unleashed in March 2003 did a lot more than remove
:21:46. > :21:53.130,000 US troops and nearly 30,000 British occupied the country.
:21:54. > :21:56.They found no weapons of mass destruction.
:21:57. > :21:59.But they dissolved every structure in a tightly
:22:00. > :22:02.controlled dictatorship - the ruling Baath Party,
:22:03. > :22:20.the security apparatus and, crucially, the Iraqi army.
:22:21. > :22:24.Adnan Janabi is one of the few politicians who was an MP under
:22:25. > :22:29.The people and the army were not only disbanded, they were cut off.
:22:30. > :22:33.Not only the army, the military industry people, some of whom
:22:34. > :22:35.are now making bombs for Daesh, and before that,
:22:36. > :22:38.Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, linked to Al-Qaeda, moved into Iraq
:22:39. > :22:41.almost as soon as the invasion happened.
:22:42. > :22:43.Within just a few months, the UN compound in Baghdad
:22:44. > :22:46.was demolished by a massive bomb attack carried out
:22:47. > :22:50.by Sunni extremists and disgruntled Baathists.
:22:51. > :22:53.Ten days later, a similar outrage killed a revered Shia cleric,
:22:54. > :22:57.Ayatollah Hakim, setting a pattern of sectarian provocation
:22:58. > :23:06.Hisham al-Hashimi was a political prisoner under Saddam Hussein.
:23:07. > :23:12.Many others perished under his repressive rule.
:23:13. > :23:14.But even he agrees that people were more secure and safe
:23:15. > :23:42.The bitter grievances felt by Saddam Hussein's minority Sunni
:23:43. > :23:45.community provided absolutely perfect soil
:23:46. > :23:56.It was in Iraq's second city, Mosul, that the leader of IS,
:23:57. > :23:58.Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, proclaimed his caliphate
:23:59. > :24:04.But the invasion of 2003 was a godsend to another power
:24:05. > :24:12.If anybody was dedicated to containing Iranian influence,
:24:13. > :24:18.In 1980, he sent his troops into mainly Shia Iran,
:24:19. > :24:22.looking to puncture the Iranian Islamic revolution.
:24:23. > :24:25.That started a war that lasted eight years and claimed
:24:26. > :24:34.Even before the 2003 invasion, Iran was already moving.
:24:35. > :24:37.I watched the Shia Iraqi militia, the Badr Organisation,
:24:38. > :24:41.parading after it crossed the border into Iraq just before the invasion.
:24:42. > :24:45.It was formed, armed, trained and commanded by the Iranians.
:24:46. > :24:48.Fast forward 13 full years, and this is still the Badr
:24:49. > :24:53.They've been through the sectarian blood-letting
:24:54. > :24:59.And now here they are as part of this huge force that's attacking
:25:00. > :25:03.towards Fallujah in the very Sunni Anbar province as part
:25:04. > :25:06.of a big campaign to get rid of the militants,
:25:07. > :25:10.the Sunni militants, of Islamic State.
:25:11. > :25:13.The battle for Fallujah is part of a struggle that
:25:14. > :25:18.Turned more than three million Iraqis into refugees and beggars
:25:19. > :25:29.Almost every day, there are terrible suicide bombs that kill dozens.
:25:30. > :25:32.At the centre, politics is deadlocked
:25:33. > :25:37.Parliament and government, unable even to meet.
:25:38. > :25:40.At this stage, nobody even knows if Iraq is going to stick
:25:41. > :25:53.All this is the legacy of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
:25:54. > :26:00.Jim Muir. After seven years and around 2 million words, John
:26:01. > :26:04.Chilcott's report on the invasion and its aftermath will finally
:26:05. > :26:06.emerge on July 6th. I asked the former Prime Minister for his
:26:07. > :26:11.reflections before the report's application.
:26:12. > :26:13.I have a real humility about the decisions I took
:26:14. > :26:18.I was trying to deal with this in the aftermath of 9/11
:26:19. > :26:20.and it was very tough, it was very difficult.
:26:21. > :26:24.I think it is important that we also have humility about the next phase
:26:25. > :26:27.of policy-making so we try and learn the lessons of the whole
:26:28. > :26:31.I think if we do that and we have an exchange that isn't
:26:32. > :26:35.a trading of barbs and insults, but is an attempt really
:26:36. > :26:38.to understand what we are dealing with, then we can confront this
:26:39. > :26:44.But my anxiety at the moment is we are still lost in the West
:26:45. > :26:51.We are not seeing this issue in its broader dimensional.
:26:52. > :26:56.How we deal with it, you can have strong disagreements about,
:26:57. > :27:00.but the roots of it are deep and we need to get to those roots.
:27:01. > :27:03.That debate is going to come to a head in six weeks' time.
:27:04. > :27:06.Are you worried that findings from the inquiry may inflame
:27:07. > :27:14.Well, I can't comment on it because I don't know, but I don't
:27:15. > :27:19.think it is going to come to a head in six weeks and I don't
:27:20. > :27:22.think it's going to be resolved in six weeks.
:27:23. > :27:28.This is a specific inquiry into a specific event.
:27:29. > :27:31.This problem pre-dated it, post-dated it and it is going to be
:27:32. > :27:34.with us for a long time, so, sure, we will have that debate
:27:35. > :27:37.when the report is published and I am not going to comment on it
:27:38. > :27:40.before then, but whatever people think about that, you have got
:27:41. > :27:47.If we don't do that, we are going to store up an even
:27:48. > :28:01.This is a different threat from anything we have faced before. It
:28:02. > :28:07.requires a different type of policy response. And it requires a
:28:08. > :28:10.different rhythm of thinking, where we understand this is a generation
:28:11. > :28:16.fight, not a fight that's going to be resolved in two years or even
:28:17. > :28:20.ten. You accept that your understanding of the Middle East is
:28:21. > :28:24.much deeper today than it was as Prime Minister. Is it possible,
:28:25. > :28:29.then, that everything, the whole invasion was based on a
:28:30. > :28:35.misunderstanding of the region? No, I think in the end there will have
:28:36. > :28:41.to be change. Sometimes regimes will only ever go when they are removed,
:28:42. > :28:46.as it were. But I do think if you look back in these last years, and
:28:47. > :28:51.you don't just learn the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, but also the
:28:52. > :28:55.lessons of the Arab Spring, then I think the combination of economic,
:28:56. > :28:59.social and religious factors is such that if you can manage a process of
:29:00. > :29:04.change over time, that is the better way to go. You have spent so much
:29:05. > :29:09.time thinking about this now, and a log of your time in the Middle East.
:29:10. > :29:15.When you come back home, the vilification of Tony Blair goes on.
:29:16. > :29:20.I wonder if that is hard? It's the way it is. Look, obviously you have
:29:21. > :29:24.to understand, there are people who disagree with me for reasons that
:29:25. > :29:28.they say to do with Iraq, but actually are to do with the fact
:29:29. > :29:34.that I won free elections for the Labour Party and they like it. Do
:29:35. > :29:40.you think that Corbyn is your child, the result of...? I think it's the
:29:41. > :29:44.product of the way the world works. It's a big challenge. When I'm not
:29:45. > :29:48.thinking about the Middle East, I'm thinking about this. Because I do
:29:49. > :29:52.think, by the way, it would be a very dangerous experiment for a
:29:53. > :29:59.major Western country to get gripped by this type of populist policy
:30:00. > :30:04.making. Left or right. Tony Blair, thank you. That thought of winning
:30:05. > :30:08.elections, bear this in mind, and perhaps practice saying the words
:30:09. > :30:13.President Donald Trump. Perhaps one day you might need to. So here is a
:30:14. > :30:15.radical thought. What if he emerged as the most moderate Republican
:30:16. > :30:19.candidate for decades? They are bringing drugs.
:30:20. > :30:21.Extremism. They are rapists.
:30:22. > :30:24.And then there's Isis. Let me say that again -
:30:25. > :30:29.Donald Trump is a moderate. His style might be a little crass,
:30:30. > :30:32.and he says things that some say A total and complete
:30:33. > :30:36.shutdown of Muslims So we get the impression that voters
:30:37. > :30:41.have picked the most right-wing But in many policy areas,
:30:42. > :30:47.he is actually the most moderate Take government spending.
:30:48. > :30:51.He is no conservative. In fact, he's a big spender.
:30:52. > :31:01.As you may have noticed. And he wants to protect
:31:02. > :31:07.American jobs with tariffs. On foreign policy, he said that
:31:08. > :31:09.9/11 was Bush's fault He wouldn't have gone into Libya
:31:10. > :31:15.and he'd be happy to talk to Russia. So if you're worried about his
:31:16. > :31:20.finger on the nuclear button, don't. Trump is running on
:31:21. > :31:23.an anti-war platform. Our military dominance must
:31:24. > :31:27.be unquestioned. So what's going on?
:31:28. > :31:32.Is Trump a secret Democrat? No - the truth is he's just making
:31:33. > :31:36.it up as he goes along. But his instincts are far to the
:31:37. > :31:39.left of the modern Republican Party. So maybe that's
:31:40. > :31:42.Trump's secret weapon. As his party becomes more
:31:43. > :31:45.ideologically conservative, And if his ideological flexibility
:31:46. > :31:51.has taken him this far, who knows, maybe it will take him
:31:52. > :31:54.a little further? And after November, we'll
:31:55. > :32:12.all have to get used Talking of secret weapons, is Russia
:32:13. > :32:19.waging a new kind of warfare on the EU to break up the union? Would a
:32:20. > :32:24.Brexit be in Russia's best interests as David Cameron suggested.? The EU
:32:25. > :32:28.has started its own task force to counter what it says is Russian
:32:29. > :32:32.disinformation. I have a paranoid or do they have a point? Tim Whewell
:32:33. > :32:37.has been watching Moscow for 30 years.
:32:38. > :32:42.Is Vladimir Putin using hybrid warfare to destabilise the EU?
:32:43. > :32:47.Hybrid warfare can refer to any form of aggression short of open
:32:48. > :32:52.invasion. His critics say it is his way to force Europe to drop its
:32:53. > :32:58.sanctions against Russia. Russia's interest in breaking up Europe is
:32:59. > :33:02.clear and it uses a variety of means, everything it can do possible
:33:03. > :33:11.to achieve this break-up. So what is Putin accused of? This information.
:33:12. > :33:16.The EU is so worried about information warfare that it has set
:33:17. > :33:21.up a unit to combat it. Russia spends millions spreading its
:33:22. > :33:24.version of reality in Europe, including fabricators, like the
:33:25. > :33:29.story of a 13-year-old Russian girl living in Germany after she vanished
:33:30. > :33:33.for a day last January. Russian media quoted her family saying she
:33:34. > :33:39.had been raped by migrants. German police were covering it up. That led
:33:40. > :33:43.to anti-government protests in Germany and a diplomatic spat after
:33:44. > :33:48.Russia accused Berlin of whitewashing reality with political
:33:49. > :33:53.correctness. But it turned out Lisa, the girl, was never raped. Was the
:33:54. > :34:01.story the Kremlin weapon against Angela Merkel? Moscow says it is
:34:02. > :34:05.absurd. Cyber warfare. For a few terrifying hours in 2007 cyber
:34:06. > :34:11.attacks almost shut down Estonia. Even supermarket checkouts did not
:34:12. > :34:16.work. Many blamed the Kremlin. Investigations failed to prove it.
:34:17. > :34:21.Last year, cyber attacks were reported on the German parliament
:34:22. > :34:24.and Bulgarian state websites with Russia widely suspected, but again
:34:25. > :34:32.there was no proof. Political warfare. Does Russia fund anti-EU
:34:33. > :34:40.political parties? US intelligence is now investigating that. The
:34:41. > :34:43.National Front in France approved Russia's takeover of Crimea and a
:34:44. > :34:52.Russian bank lent it millions of euros. Is Germany's AFD party and
:34:53. > :34:56.hungry's far right party taking Kremlin cash? Some say yes, but they
:34:57. > :35:03.deny it and there is no evidence yet. In any case the Kremlin says
:35:04. > :35:08.both sides play the same game. Europe has long tried to spread its
:35:09. > :35:12.use in Russia and other former Soviet states. The West calls its
:35:13. > :35:17.soft power. How does it differ from what Russia does in Europe? The West
:35:18. > :35:23.does not have the kind of tools that Russia has and the West is not able
:35:24. > :35:26.to organise all the tools of the state against Russia the way Russia
:35:27. > :35:34.uses them against the West. No comparison then. Russia's critics
:35:35. > :35:39.say the warfare is a reality. If they cannot prove that Putin is
:35:40. > :35:45.waging it, that is because by definition hybrid warfare cannot be
:35:46. > :35:49.proved. I am joined by the Russian ambassador to the EU from our studio
:35:50. > :35:56.in Brussels. What do you make of this allegation of hybrid warfare?
:35:57. > :35:59.First of all, to recognise the allegation one needs to have a clear
:36:00. > :36:08.picture of what the term hybrid warfare is all about. If you stretch
:36:09. > :36:16.it into history, you might end up with elements of hybrid warfare
:36:17. > :36:20.during the empire or ancient Greece or medieval conflicts across Europe
:36:21. > :36:29.and the rest of the world. It is not a denial exactly? Hybrid warfare, it
:36:30. > :36:34.depends on what you mean. Well, I put to you in the report some of
:36:35. > :36:41.those allegations that Russia is trying to infiltrate or, if you
:36:42. > :36:49.like, influence EU politics. Why would Russia want that or need that?
:36:50. > :36:54.I would say there is a misperception very widely spread, not only in the
:36:55. > :37:02.European Union, but beyond, that Russia is ostensibly tried to split
:37:03. > :37:06.the European Union, trying to drive wedges between individual member
:37:07. > :37:12.states of the EU and primarily between the EU as an entity and its
:37:13. > :37:17.member states. All those allegations are totally wrong. Would Brexit make
:37:18. > :37:23.a difference? There would be fewer EU countries if that happens. Is
:37:24. > :37:28.that a good thing for Russia or a bad thing? British and Russian
:37:29. > :37:32.relations will not stop and Russian and European relations will not
:37:33. > :37:39.stop, but it is not our show in any way. What are we to make of these
:37:40. > :37:42.strong financial links between Russia and arch Eurosceptics in
:37:43. > :37:54.France like Marine Le Pen? Does Putin want the National Front to
:37:55. > :38:02.succeed? I assume you mean a certain loan that the National Front in
:38:03. > :38:11.France got from a Czechoslovakian bag. From a Russian back? It is
:38:12. > :38:16.linked to a Russian bank. The US are investigating this link, so
:38:17. > :38:23.presumably they see it as coming from Russia and Russia's Government.
:38:24. > :38:27.They are free to investigate whatever they like, but the Russian
:38:28. > :38:33.Government has nothing to do with it. Thank you for joining us. That
:38:34. > :38:38.is all from This Week's World. Before we go, there are a couple of
:38:39. > :38:44.questions that had Tony Blair stumped. One was my fault. Do you
:38:45. > :38:50.think you why the air to call them? I am the air to Corbyn? Donald Trump
:38:51. > :38:57.predicted last week that Chilcott would be terrible for you. Donald
:38:58. > :38:59.Trump! Is there anything in that sentence that you would like to
:39:00. > :39:02.undertake? The biggest and bloodiest
:39:03. > :39:04.naval battle... You've got to be able to
:39:05. > :39:11.hit that target before it hits you. In its centenary year,
:39:12. > :39:14.join Dan Snow... ..as we remember
:39:15. > :39:19.the Battle of Jutland.