26/11/2015

:00:09. > :00:13.Hello, it's 9.15, I'm Julian Worricker, welcome to the programme.

:00:14. > :00:21.David Cameron is going to set out his case to MPs for

:00:22. > :00:24.the UK to launch air strikes against so called Islamic State in Syria.

:00:25. > :00:26.What has changed since the last time the Commons

:00:27. > :00:30.As the Chancellor promises to give a hand to families hoping to get

:00:31. > :00:33.a foot on the housing ladder, we'll be finding out what some of

:00:34. > :00:35.those prospective home owners make of the measures revealed yesterday.

:00:36. > :00:38.Why are prisons in their worst state for ten years?

:00:39. > :00:44.We are talking exclusively to the man in charge

:00:45. > :00:58.Hello, welcome to the programme, we're on BBC Two and the BBC News

:00:59. > :01:06.David Cameron is to set out his reasons for Britain expanding

:01:07. > :01:08.its air strikes to Syria later this morning.

:01:09. > :01:12.We've heard this before, so what is different this time?

:01:13. > :01:15.We will look at the arguments for and against, and what has

:01:16. > :01:17.changed, and we'll bring you that statement from the Prime Minister

:01:18. > :01:24.Prisons are in their worst state for ten years, and violence

:01:25. > :01:29.We'll talk to the Chief Inspector of Prisons to find out what is

:01:30. > :01:32.And, as ever, we will keep you up to date with all

:01:33. > :01:40.Your contributions to this programme and your expertise really is key

:01:41. > :01:42.- texts will be charged at the standard network rate.

:01:43. > :01:45.And, of course, you can watch the programme online wherever you

:01:46. > :01:49.are, via the bbc news app or our website bbc.co.uk/victoria

:01:50. > :01:54.and you can also subscribe to all our features on the news app,

:01:55. > :02:02.by going to add topics and searching "Victoria Derbyshire".

:02:03. > :02:14.Air strikes against the terror group in Syria, Islamic State. David

:02:15. > :02:16.Cameron says they would be part of a compromise of strategy, partly in

:02:17. > :02:22.response to the murderous attacks in Paris two weeks ago. We already

:02:23. > :02:25.bombing in Iraq, but MPs voted against a Syria campaign two years

:02:26. > :02:34.ago, that would have been against the Asad regime. We can have a look

:02:35. > :02:42.back at the developments since 2013. -- temp Assad.

:02:43. > :02:44.The use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime is unacceptable,

:02:45. > :02:50.and the world cannot stand by in the face of that.

:02:51. > :02:52.The ayes to the right, 272, the nos to the left, 285.

:02:53. > :03:23.And when we have the unique capabilities

:03:24. > :03:26.to help avert a massacre, I believe the United States

:03:27. > :03:40.That means that a terrorist attack is highly likely.

:03:41. > :03:52.But there is no intelligence to suggest that an attack is imminent.

:03:53. > :05:20.Well, in order to convince MPs that the UK should commit to air strikes,

:05:21. > :05:23.David Cameron will have to answer a series of questions

:05:24. > :05:33.Our political guru Normal Smith can tell us more.

:05:34. > :05:40.Welcome to a bright and the sharp Westminster and what is a big day

:05:41. > :05:47.because today is the day when David Cameron has to convince MPs of the

:05:48. > :05:52.case for bombing IS in Syria, we know his big argument, we can't just

:05:53. > :05:57.leave it to the French or the Americans, we have got to take

:05:58. > :06:01.responsibility ourselves. In order to win over MPs, he has got to

:06:02. > :06:05.answer questions raised by the foreign affairs select committee

:06:06. > :06:09.which is a conservative dominated committee, which wrote a report

:06:10. > :06:17.recently, saying, we cannot go to walk but we cannot bomb in Syria

:06:18. > :06:23.unless these questions are answered. How will David Cameron respond? Here

:06:24. > :06:26.he is, sitting down at his desk in Downing Street, where he will have

:06:27. > :06:34.to write out his answers and present them to MPs. The first question,

:06:35. > :06:44.would UK involvement make any difference? His answer is likely to

:06:45. > :06:46.be that if British planes are involved, there will be fewer

:06:47. > :06:53.Katsidis, our pilots are better and we have more accurate weapons. --

:06:54. > :06:57.there will be fewer casualties. The second question, would it be legal?

:06:58. > :07:02.His answer would be, it is self defence can we are acting to defend

:07:03. > :07:08.our citizens and by the way we have a UN resolution, as well. The third

:07:09. > :07:15.question, what is the diplomatic plan? Is their diplomatic support?

:07:16. > :07:17.David Cameron will answer that the Russians are now getting involved

:07:18. > :07:21.and the regional players are becoming involved and we have

:07:22. > :07:26.something known as the Vienna process which provides a diplomatic

:07:27. > :07:33.route to try and resolve this. Those are the easy questions, he faces two

:07:34. > :07:37.much tougher questions. The first one, who is going to provide the

:07:38. > :07:44.troops? Who is actually going to fight and defeat Isis on the ground

:07:45. > :07:48.in Syria? That is a much harder question, we know it will not be

:07:49. > :07:53.British troops, American troops, French troops, we are not getting

:07:54. > :07:56.involved on the ground, but who is Westwood David Cameron will probably

:07:57. > :08:08.say maybe the Syrians -- but who is? May be the Free Syrian Army,

:08:09. > :08:12.maybe the Kurdish Peshmerga will do it, that is a tough question. The

:08:13. > :08:16.second question, what happens afterwards? The doubt surrounds

:08:17. > :08:21.President Assad, the Russians have said he is going nowhere, he must

:08:22. > :08:25.remain in post, but Britain and the rest of the West say no way, he is

:08:26. > :08:31.part of the problem, he has got to go. There is no deal over Assad, and

:08:32. > :08:36.that means it is much harder to see how David Cameron answers that

:08:37. > :08:40.question. There are three easy questions, and two pretty tough

:08:41. > :08:42.questions. Norman, thanks for joining us.

:08:43. > :08:45.So, how likely is it that David Cameron will gain

:08:46. > :08:49.the backing of not just Conservative MPs, but Labour ones, too.

:08:50. > :08:52.Joining us in the studio is Colonel Bob Stewart,

:08:53. > :08:57.a Conservative MP who's a former British army officers, and Labour

:08:58. > :09:08.Those questions raised by Norman, are they broadly accurate in terms

:09:09. > :09:13.of what they pose and the relative difficulties of them? Yes,

:09:14. > :09:17.absolutely, those big questions at the end, they are the big ones, who

:09:18. > :09:21.is going to do the business on the ground? Anyone who thinks about it,

:09:22. > :09:27.they know that air power alone will not win anything, but funnily

:09:28. > :09:32.enough, air power alone stopped them in their tracks early and it might

:09:33. > :09:38.well keep them in control, in the area it is for the moment, and stop

:09:39. > :09:42.expanding more. We all know that someone has got to go in on the

:09:43. > :09:47.ground, and at the moment the government's view is that it cannot

:09:48. > :09:50.be British troops, American troops, French, and that the Arab world

:09:51. > :09:56.should sort itself out. You agree with that? I would, but in the end,

:09:57. > :10:00.if the threat to our country is so great but we may well have to

:10:01. > :10:10.consider doing some sort of operation on the ground. We are not

:10:11. > :10:17.there yet. How much difference, realistically, could UK air strikes

:10:18. > :10:21.makeover Syria? We are very accurate, and when people say we

:10:22. > :10:25.don't want civilian casualties, a la weapons systems are so accurate they

:10:26. > :10:31.can take out one house and leave the 1 beside it standing -- a la

:10:32. > :10:34.weapons. People in the house might be innocent, people say, but I would

:10:35. > :10:39.say our targeting is pretty good, as well, and the people in that house,

:10:40. > :10:42.if they are something to do with Da'ish, they support the killing of

:10:43. > :10:47.our people, so they are not innocent. What would you want to

:10:48. > :10:52.hear from the Prime Minister? I want to know what they are going to do

:10:53. > :10:55.about Russia, we have already had in a very crowded conflicted Essbase,

:10:56. > :11:03.overlapping people flying, we have already seen one Russian plane shot

:11:04. > :11:09.down. Russia was not attacking Da'ish. Russia had been involved in

:11:10. > :11:14.bombing refugee camps, 70% of their attacks have been and what we called

:11:15. > :11:19.the moderate opposition, many of whom are anything but moderate -- on

:11:20. > :11:23.what we call. We have got into a conflict there, but my concern is

:11:24. > :11:29.that we will be sending our planes into an already conflicted Essbase

:11:30. > :11:39.without any agreement with the Russians -- air space. We could get

:11:40. > :11:43.into a dogfight. There are plenty of tasks to do in Iraq, the problems in

:11:44. > :11:48.Iraq have not gone away, while Syria has risen on the agenda. We can take

:11:49. > :11:52.a burden from the French, from the Americans, and we can continue.

:11:53. > :11:58.There is a moral obligation to do that, some would argue. There is,

:11:59. > :12:01.but we also have a situation where we were actually asked in by the

:12:02. > :12:06.Iraq is and we are doing a task which we were asked to undertake and

:12:07. > :12:09.we can carry on doing that, we can increase our capability there, and

:12:10. > :12:15.if we were worried about why have we not done that? There is the UN

:12:16. > :12:20.resolution, so the issue over who asked who to do what, that is to

:12:21. > :12:26.some extent their significant as a result of what the French resolution

:12:27. > :12:31.said at the UN? The problem with that, it does not address the issue

:12:32. > :12:36.of the Russians. The Russians are not attacking the same people as we

:12:37. > :12:41.want to attack. Let's deal with the Russia question, what would you say

:12:42. > :12:45.in response to her concerns? She is right, we have got to deal with the

:12:46. > :12:49.Russians, we need agreement, political agreement, we have got to

:12:50. > :12:54.be very careful about any aircraft flying in Syrian airspace. The fact

:12:55. > :13:00.of the matter is, we have French aircraft, American aircraft, Syrian

:13:01. > :13:04.aircraft, Russian aircraft, so I'm amazed that these aircraft are

:13:05. > :13:08.flying into that country and there is not some kind of coordination,

:13:09. > :13:11.and there must be. There must be political agreement on the

:13:12. > :13:15.coordination, even if we don't agree on everything, we have got to

:13:16. > :13:22.coordinate these fast jets flying at incredible speed over a relatively

:13:23. > :13:27.limited area. I have a few comments from people who are already getting

:13:28. > :13:32.in touch. Chris says, bombing Syria is the answer, we should be acting

:13:33. > :13:36.and not talking, we should be acting like the rest of the Allies, because

:13:37. > :13:42.he says these people are pure evil. How do you respond? Absolutely,

:13:43. > :13:48.these people are pure evil, but you have got to look at what the

:13:49. > :13:58.military capability is. The Russians in response to the downing of the

:13:59. > :14:03.jet by the Turks has been to move in their surface-to-air missiles, and

:14:04. > :14:10.there has to be some agreement about our planes not being taken down by

:14:11. > :14:13.those Ed offence -- air defences. There is a great reluctance to agree

:14:14. > :14:21.anything with the Russians, because there is not much trust. I sense

:14:22. > :14:25.brought agreement regarding that, but what about what happens

:14:26. > :14:35.afterwards which Mark afterwards we have got to be prepared to stay.

:14:36. > :14:38.What does that mean in practice? You cannot just win and leave, because

:14:39. > :14:44.we made that mistake many times before. We have also made the

:14:45. > :14:50.mistake of removing strongmen and leaving chaos. One of the lessons of

:14:51. > :14:58.the last ten, 12 years, has been removed a dictator and chaos

:14:59. > :15:05.follows. -- removed. One other point from a viewer, and

:15:06. > :15:09.follows. -- removed. One other point David Cameron -- one person says,

:15:10. > :15:16.why does David Cameron want to bomb Syria when as he says, most of

:15:17. > :15:19.Islamic State are already here? Because the catalyst for ataxia,

:15:20. > :15:23.Islamic State are already here? centre is in Syria, that is where

:15:24. > :15:28.the inspiration is coming from -- the catalyst for a tax here. We have

:15:29. > :15:36.got to deal with misguided people in this country, as well, but we have

:15:37. > :15:41.got to go to the eye of the octopus, which is in Syria.

:15:42. > :15:50.The great recruiting Sergeant is President Assad, because he is what

:15:51. > :15:56.people want to oppose. We have not even mentioned him, that is another

:15:57. > :16:02.issue. Who do we replace him with? He is a figurehead, the head of a

:16:03. > :16:06.regime. Take him out, OK, but you still have the regime. Unless you

:16:07. > :16:11.replace that with something that will be less corrupt, oppressive,

:16:12. > :16:16.that will give the youth unemployment a chance for the

:16:17. > :16:20.country they can help build, we are wasting our time, and we have never

:16:21. > :16:25.yet been good at doing that. Thank you both very much indeed. We shall

:16:26. > :16:27.await David Cameron later. Thanks for joining us today -

:16:28. > :16:29.still to come. Turkey releases

:16:30. > :16:32.an audio recording of what it says were warnings to a Russian warplane

:16:33. > :16:36.before it was shot down. Drugs, gangs and bullying,

:16:37. > :16:38.just some of the problems affecting We'll be asking the man in charge

:16:39. > :17:04.of inspections why they are for the UK to join and strikes

:17:05. > :17:09.against the Islamic terror group in Syria,

:17:10. > :17:12.against the Islamic terror group in not be allowed to become more

:17:13. > :17:16.dangerous and bombing would be part of a conference of strategy.

:17:17. > :17:20.Turkey has released a recording of warnings it says it gave a Russian

:17:21. > :17:30.fighter jet before it shut it down, prompting period from Moscow.

:17:31. > :17:37.The aircraft was downed on Tuesday after claims that it violated

:17:38. > :17:41.Turkish airspace. The Russian President Vladimir Putin is holding

:17:42. > :17:47.talks with the French president today in Moscow to discuss the fight

:17:48. > :17:51.against Islamic State in Syria. George Osborne has defended his

:17:52. > :17:55.decision to abandon tax credits in his spending review. He said it was

:17:56. > :17:57.not a weakness to listen and that the improved economy have made it

:17:58. > :18:08.possible to reverse the policy. I do not think it is a weakness to

:18:09. > :18:12.listen when people raise points. Because our country is fundamentally

:18:13. > :18:14.stronger, our finances are better than people expected, I could help

:18:15. > :18:17.people in the transition to this lower welfare, higher wage economy

:18:18. > :18:20.that we all want to build. Talks are due to begin

:18:21. > :18:24.at the conciliation service Acas in an effort to avert industrial

:18:25. > :18:26.action by junior doctors. The first of three planned walkouts

:18:27. > :18:40.is scheduled for next Tuesday, in Members of the rock group who

:18:41. > :18:42.survived the Paris terror attack say they are determined to return to the

:18:43. > :18:51.venue. The Eagles of Death Metal were on stage when gunmen burst in.

:18:52. > :18:56.Pope Francis has been holding a mass at the University of Nairobi in

:18:57. > :18:59.front of thousands. He met both Christian and Muslim leaders, it is

:19:00. > :19:01.his first visit to Africa, security is tight.

:19:02. > :19:03.Let's catch up with all the sport now.

:19:04. > :19:06.Let's join Hugh, and a frustrating night for the Manchester sides

:19:07. > :19:12.Another night of Champions League action last night, and it wasn't

:19:13. > :19:16.City were beaten by Italian giants Juventus, and

:19:17. > :19:20.although Manchester United shared a goalless draw with PSV Eindhoven,

:19:21. > :19:24.they've drawn plenty of criticism for the manner of their display.

:19:25. > :19:27.The reaction from fans on Radio 5 Live after was vitriolic,

:19:28. > :19:30.manager Louis van Gaal was accused of betraying the DNA

:19:31. > :19:33.of the club and their philosophy of attacking football.

:19:34. > :19:37.It's now five goals in seven matches for United.

:19:38. > :19:39.It isn't a great spectacle right now and

:19:40. > :19:42.there were fans last night bemoaning the price of their tickets.

:19:43. > :19:45.Well, we'll be talking about the price of tickets as the Premier

:19:46. > :19:48.League launches a new campaign today to warn football fans of

:19:49. > :19:54.And you might remember yesterday we met a 16-year-old weightlifter

:19:55. > :19:56.taking part in her first senior competition at the World

:19:57. > :20:00.Championships, we are going to tell you how the Rio hopeful got on.

:20:01. > :20:12.All that and more coming up just after 10am.

:20:13. > :20:19.Breaking news about net migration to the UK, it has hit a new all-time

:20:20. > :20:22.high, according to the ONS. That is the difference between the number of

:20:23. > :20:31.people coming to live in Britain and those emigrating, the figure is

:20:32. > :20:35.336,000, 82,000 more than the previous year, the Government has

:20:36. > :20:38.slipped further away from hitting its target of getting net migration

:20:39. > :20:40.down to the tens of thousands by 2020. More on that from our

:20:41. > :20:51.correspondent shortly. What looked like a deepening

:20:52. > :20:54.international cohesion after the Paris terror attacks started to look

:20:55. > :20:59.shaky after Turkey shot down that Russian jet. The French and Russian

:21:00. > :21:00.presidents are holding talks in Moscow to discuss the fight against

:21:01. > :21:02.iOS in Syria. Both countries are already carrying

:21:03. > :21:07.out airstrikes in the country. But after Turkey shot down a Russian

:21:08. > :21:10.warplane earlier this week, Turkey has released what it says is

:21:11. > :21:35.some of the radio traffic Talk to us a bit more about what

:21:36. > :21:38.these talks might produce. Francois Hollande is going to Russia to try

:21:39. > :21:45.to win concessions from Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, over

:21:46. > :21:54.the fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, but also to win

:21:55. > :22:01.concessions, to press Vladimir Putin over a political solution in Syria.

:22:02. > :22:09.In a marathon week of diplomacy, Francois Lond has been trying to

:22:10. > :22:14.build a grand coalition, his initial cause for a big coalition, including

:22:15. > :22:18.Russia and the US, is being played down now here, especially after the

:22:19. > :22:23.incident of the downing of the Russian jet by Turkey, which clearly

:22:24. > :22:29.shows that all of these countries involved in the campaign of air

:22:30. > :22:34.strikes have a common enemy, but still have many different interests.

:22:35. > :22:39.At best, French officials are hoping that Francois Hollande will be able

:22:40. > :22:45.to get action that is better coordinated against Islamic State,

:22:46. > :22:53.with Russia, as we are quite far from a joint military command.

:22:54. > :23:02.More comments coming in in light of what the Government may recommend,

:23:03. > :23:07.Mark says, we need to help our allies and protect our own. Trevor

:23:08. > :23:11.says, we have a Ministry of Defence and not a Ministry of War, we must

:23:12. > :23:17.defend ourselves and not put our service personnel deliberately in

:23:18. > :23:22.harm 's way. Paul says, what has changed since the last vote, who

:23:23. > :23:28.will be bomb? Eight-week says, start loving, enjoy life. Iraq escapee

:23:29. > :23:36.highlighted reasons to destroy is a mixed, N strikes are needed. Plenty

:23:37. > :23:42.more of those through the programme. Barclays Bank has been fined ?72

:23:43. > :23:45.million for failing to carry out enough

:23:46. > :23:48.checks on ultra-wealthy customers. Our business correspondent

:23:49. > :23:57.Theo Leggett is here - They set up a deal to invest money

:23:58. > :24:03.on the of very rich people who were also what were described as

:24:04. > :24:07.politically exposed persons, in positions of Government or sensitive

:24:08. > :24:11.industries, possibly abroad, where there may be issues. They did not

:24:12. > :24:15.carry out enough checks to check that those people were not involved

:24:16. > :24:23.in money-laundering or financial crime of any sort. Normally, banks

:24:24. > :24:26.are under a requirement to carry out checks in a rigorous way, but what

:24:27. > :24:32.seems to have happened is that Barclays was so keen to land and

:24:33. > :24:35.elephant deal, it was discussed internally as the deal of the

:24:36. > :24:41.century, that would make the bank a lot of money, they are allowed some

:24:42. > :24:44.of those checks to be avoided. They signed a confidential letter

:24:45. > :24:48.agreement with the people concerned, and did not do what they should have

:24:49. > :24:53.done. Senior management were too keen to get the deal done, and that

:24:54. > :24:56.is what they have been fined for. There is no suggestion there was a

:24:57. > :25:03.financial crime or wrong doing, but they did not check carefully enough.

:25:04. > :25:06.How damaging is it? Barclays Bank has been involved in a number of

:25:07. > :25:14.scandals, the foreign exchange edge marking scandal, very conjugated

:25:15. > :25:20.things, -- complicated things, in this case the fine is smaller, but

:25:21. > :25:23.it is an harassment. It does not look or when Barclays' logo is

:25:24. > :25:28.splashed over the news because it did not check carefully enough. It

:25:29. > :25:30.is Anna Barris meant, about reputation, but they can afford the

:25:31. > :25:33.fine. Prisons in England and Wales are

:25:34. > :25:36.in their worst state for ten years, with violence on the increase,

:25:37. > :25:39.according to the chief inspector The Government itself says too many

:25:40. > :25:43.institutions are ageing and ineffective and far too many

:25:44. > :25:59.inmates commit crimes almost The Government has promised nine new

:26:00. > :26:02.prisons in England and Wales, to sell Victorian jails for housing.

:26:03. > :26:03.So what's going wrong with our prison system

:26:04. > :26:07.and can it be easily fixed at a time when budgets are being cut back?

:26:08. > :26:09.The current chief inspector Nick Hardwick will step down

:26:10. > :26:12.in January, after turning down the chance to reapply for the role.

:26:13. > :26:14.We'll speak to him in a few minutes' time.

:26:15. > :26:16.First, though, we wanted to find out what people

:26:17. > :26:19.working in the system and people serving time felt about conditions

:26:20. > :26:22.We asked people to write us anonymous letters

:26:23. > :26:45.Their words have been voiced by actors.

:26:46. > :26:48.The staff here are stretched to the limit on a daily basis.

:26:49. > :26:51.There are some who go above and beyond to help,

:26:52. > :26:54.but you have to feel sorry when one lone female is left to contain 90 or

:26:55. > :27:16.more male prisoners, sometimes, it is for long jury shins.

:27:17. > :27:19.It wouldn't surprise me if there was a major incident here,

:27:20. > :27:41.because I believe the authorities lost control some time ago.

:27:42. > :27:43.Conditions in prisons are not something that the general

:27:44. > :27:50.Yes, you do get to see documentaries on TV, but they only show what the

:27:51. > :27:54.With the staffing situation as it is now,

:27:55. > :28:08.We are very short of experienced prison officers.

:28:09. > :28:11.That is a different type of prison officer on a much lower pay scale.

:28:12. > :28:14.They are meant to have minimal contact with the prisoners.

:28:15. > :28:46.In reality, it is 100% contact all the time.

:28:47. > :28:49.Education is so important because we have to cut reoffending rates.

:28:50. > :28:52.Michael Gove says 20 to 30% of prisoners have learning

:28:53. > :28:58.In my experience, it is more like 50%.

:28:59. > :29:09.A grown man is not going to walk in and say he cannot read or write.

:29:10. > :29:12.At the moment, nothing changes, year after year.

:29:13. > :29:51.I believe that prison is a much more dangerous place now than

:29:52. > :29:54.It really does feel like we have gone backwards.

:29:55. > :29:58.Prisoners are spending more time locked up, due to staff shortages,

:29:59. > :30:07.It is not just that prisons are crowded.

:30:08. > :30:19.In the last jail I was in, I witnessed bullying on a daily basis.

:30:20. > :30:22.Most of it was drug-related, and because of staff cuts,

:30:23. > :31:18.the guards were too intimidated to do much about it.

:31:19. > :31:41.the guards were too intimidated to charge of inspections? There

:31:42. > :31:41.the guards were too intimidated to the job, they are more

:31:42. > :31:41.the guards were too intimidated to enough has been done to stop them

:31:42. > :31:50.committing more crime. Why enough has been done to stop them

:31:51. > :31:50.of all, too many prisoners, not enough has been done to stop them

:31:51. > :32:09.enough star, the men there are enough has been done to stop them

:32:10. > :32:18.spice, and that leads to bullying and debt. That has created

:32:19. > :32:24.highs, that is a concern you have raised in recent times, how do they

:32:25. > :32:24.get knew exactly we could stop it, but

:32:25. > :32:29.it depends on the sort knew exactly we could stop it, but

:32:30. > :32:40.perimeter, men are going backwards and forwards to work,

:32:41. > :32:41.perimeter, men are going backwards catapult it in. They can use drones

:32:42. > :32:54.almost. In local catapult it in. They can use drones

:32:55. > :33:03.themselves can bring it in, maybe it catapult it in. They can use drones

:33:04. > :33:09.staff are corrupt. When you catapult it in. They can use drones

:33:10. > :33:19.who are clearly under the influence? catapult it in. They can use drones

:33:20. > :33:25.influence, it is dangerous, it catapult it in. They can use drones

:33:26. > :33:46.less badly affected, they were catapult it in. They can use drones

:33:47. > :33:46.aren't the staff to deal catapult it in. They can use drones

:33:47. > :33:52.things. I would go onto catapult it in. They can use drones

:33:53. > :34:12.staff, and you cannot find one to talk

:34:13. > :34:14.staff, and you cannot find one to staff reductions, a growing

:34:15. > :34:16.population, and more difficult population and those things together

:34:17. > :34:40.a really stretch the system. It is worth reiterating, the

:34:41. > :34:47.Ministry of Justice statement that we saw at the end of that film, too

:34:48. > :34:51.many prisoners are ageing and ineffective, and that is why we are

:34:52. > :34:54.investing in a modern prison, where governors are in power to run

:34:55. > :34:57.prisons in the way they think best and prisoners are given a chance to

:34:58. > :35:02.work or learn and quite a lot has been made of the fact that new

:35:03. > :35:05.prisons are about to be built. The 1 thing I feel positive about as I

:35:06. > :35:10.come to the end of my term, the government seems to be listening to

:35:11. > :35:16.what we are saying, and what Michael Gove is saying he is going to do is

:35:17. > :35:20.spot on. He has made a difference? He has not made a difference yet,

:35:21. > :35:23.and inspectors can we believe it when we see it, rather than the

:35:24. > :35:28.policies. You are sensing a different tone? He has a different

:35:29. > :35:33.tone. What he's encouraging people to do. The prison system is a

:35:34. > :35:37.disciplined service, if they get a very clear steer from the top about

:35:38. > :35:41.what is wanted, we want more guys into education, so they are more

:35:42. > :35:45.likely to get a job when they leave and stay out of trouble, they will

:35:46. > :35:49.try and deliver that. If they get the message that is not important,

:35:50. > :35:51.they will do something else, and so I think the tone is important,

:35:52. > :35:55.they will do something else, and so the key thing, replacing the

:35:56. > :35:58.Victorian ruins we keep people in with new modern buildings,

:35:59. > :36:04.emphasising education, doing something about the boys who are in

:36:05. > :36:07.custody, tried to do something about youth justice, that is very

:36:08. > :36:14.important, but he has got to deliver it. Talking about rehabilitation,

:36:15. > :36:17.the government also talks about this, you are aware there is a

:36:18. > :36:21.concern out there, that there is too great an emphasis on that, and

:36:22. > :36:26.people start to think it will be too soft and comfortable, the element of

:36:27. > :36:31.punishment, of making people realise they have done something seriously

:36:32. > :36:36.wrong, that has gone away? Punishment is an important part.

:36:37. > :36:40.That is an important part of the prison system. I've been doing this

:36:41. > :36:47.job six years and I've yet to find any holiday camps. I'm surprised

:36:48. > :36:53.personally about how grim prisons are, and how pleased I am to get out

:36:54. > :36:58.at the end of the day, I got keys, I can leave any time I want, and for

:36:59. > :37:03.people who are stuck who are held, rightly so at times, even the best

:37:04. > :37:10.prison with the best staff, it is a very severe punishment indeed. We

:37:11. > :37:18.don't need to think of ways of making it worse. Do you argue that

:37:19. > :37:25.there are actually... They are more effective ways of punishing the more

:37:26. > :37:28.serious offenders in prisons? Undoubtedly, there are some men in

:37:29. > :37:32.prison who have committed such serious offences, they still a

:37:33. > :37:36.threat or the only proper way to punish them is with a prison

:37:37. > :37:40.sentence, but there will be other people, who I think, we can punish

:37:41. > :37:47.them but also reformed them in other ways which will also be cheaper.

:37:48. > :37:50.Such as? Community service type punishments, that people have

:37:51. > :37:54.confidence in, and I think there is the technology to make sure that

:37:55. > :37:57.people can actually do community sentences.

:37:58. > :38:03.people can actually do community across the political spectrum, is

:38:04. > :38:09.prisons are a good use of taxpayers money? Do we want to spend money on

:38:10. > :38:15.prison places or soldiers or nurses? You can't exempt prisons from the

:38:16. > :38:24.spending decisions that every other bit of the state is now facing. The

:38:25. > :38:30.money could be used more wisely? Yes, but it leaves prisoners in no

:38:31. > :38:36.doubt, that if they have committed an offence, they are being punished,

:38:37. > :38:40.but that is about more reforming people, and if they go back into the

:38:41. > :38:44.Trinity, they are less likely to create the havoc and

:38:45. > :38:50.Trinity, they are less likely to which often happens -- if they go

:38:51. > :38:54.back into the community. Why did you want to do this job? I wanted to

:38:55. > :39:00.tell politicians what I found, and how it was, they did not like that

:39:01. > :39:06.message at times. They probably knew it was coming. They probably thought

:39:07. > :39:13.I would soften the message, but I said I wasn't going to do this. With

:39:14. > :39:18.these kind of jobs, you ought to do it properly, speak truth to power,

:39:19. > :39:21.and then say, it's been a privilege to have the opportunity to do this

:39:22. > :39:26.job, but now I will do something hours, I will not be dependent on

:39:27. > :39:32.anybody what I do it. -- something else. Rose on Facebook says it was a

:39:33. > :39:40.horrible place to be, regardless of how good... 128, our prison system

:39:41. > :39:45.is in dire need of more funding and resources to better rehabilitate

:39:46. > :39:51.criminals -- we have one tweak here. Another one says, prison should be a

:39:52. > :39:55.deterrent. Another person says, maybe there should be two layers in

:39:56. > :40:03.two different establishments, nasty and nice. We have that, if you have

:40:04. > :40:07.a very serious offender, they will be in a high security prison where

:40:08. > :40:08.the regime will be very tough. If you want people to

:40:09. > :40:10.the regime will be very tough. If prison, I don't mind that, but if

:40:11. > :40:16.you are frightened you are not going prison, I don't mind that, but if

:40:17. > :40:21.reading and writing so that you can get and hold down a job.

:40:22. > :40:26.frightened beforehand, you might not commit the crime that

:40:27. > :40:27.frightened beforehand, you might not there? People in prison are often

:40:28. > :40:30.there because they do not think there? People in prison are often

:40:31. > :40:33.things through they would not be there in the first place, and I

:40:34. > :40:36.think prison is a severe there in the first place, and I

:40:37. > :40:39.and once they are there, I think we need to have a greater focus on

:40:40. > :40:46.making sure that they don't come back. That is not just good for

:40:47. > :40:47.them, but good for all of us out in the community, that is what

:40:48. > :40:51.them, but good for all of us out in make our families safer and yours.

:40:52. > :40:54.them, but good for all of us out in One final thing. Michael

:40:55. > :40:57.them, but good for all of us out in made clear who he would prefer, and

:40:58. > :41:03.you have said before, the idea that you are appointed by the same

:41:04. > :41:04.element of government that you will potentially criticise,

:41:05. > :41:10.element of government that you will comfortable with stop we are falling

:41:11. > :41:14.behind how other Western countries are doing this, I think jobs like

:41:15. > :41:18.mine, and schools inspectors, where part of the job might be criticising

:41:19. > :41:20.politicians who are running the services, I don't think you can be

:41:21. > :41:26.appointed and services, I don't think you can be

:41:27. > :41:29.people. That needs to change. That is something I pressed for during my

:41:30. > :41:36.term and I hope it will happen. Thanks for joining us. We have

:41:37. > :41:39.brought you that breaking News, about the net immigration, it has

:41:40. > :41:42.brought you that breaking News, hit a new high, according to the

:41:43. > :41:46.Office for National Statistics. If figure stands at 336,000 in the year

:41:47. > :41:51.to June, that is a jump figure stands at 336,000 in the year

:41:52. > :41:57.last year, and that means the government's targets are slipping

:41:58. > :42:00.even further away. -- on last year. Our home affairs correspondent has

:42:01. > :42:04.more, these figures will not be very welcome to the government? No, they

:42:05. > :42:08.won't be welcome news to the government, they have a target to

:42:09. > :42:14.get net migration down to the tens of thousands, below 100,000 in other

:42:15. > :42:18.words, by 2020, the target they had before the election, which they

:42:19. > :42:23.failed to hit them. They are failing to hit it now, according to these

:42:24. > :42:30.new figures, 336,000, that is up slightly in the last few months. But

:42:31. > :42:33.up considerably over the past year. The good news for the government,

:42:34. > :42:37.that increase in net migration appears to be slowing, and that is

:42:38. > :42:43.the 1 ray of light. The difficulty for the government, that net

:42:44. > :42:48.migration increase is driven by two factors, immigration, up slightly,

:42:49. > :42:49.around 20,000, they don't have much control about people leaving the UK,

:42:50. > :42:56.and immigration, and the immigration control about people leaving the UK,

:42:57. > :43:01.rise is principally driven by people coming from other EU countries to

:43:02. > :43:04.work in Britain. Presumably some of those people are arriving because of

:43:05. > :43:08.Britain's relatively buoyant economy, and that is the kind of

:43:09. > :43:11.flip side of the good economic news that we were hearing about

:43:12. > :43:15.yesterday, people are coming here to find jobs, but that is driving

:43:16. > :43:19.immigration up. Danny, thanks for joining us.

:43:20. > :43:29.The Prime Minister has said it is time to extend the air strike

:43:30. > :43:34.campaign against Islamic State, into Syria. He said the threats to our

:43:35. > :43:39.people are such that we cannot afford to stand aside. He will make

:43:40. > :43:47.the case to MPs very shortly and we will be discussing the possible

:43:48. > :43:50.impact later on. It is late November, don't get your hopes up,

:43:51. > :43:55.but it is time for the weather forecast.

:43:56. > :44:02.You are looking lovely today, I have to say. Thank you. We are going to

:44:03. > :44:08.start by looking at what is happening in America, we do have

:44:09. > :44:14.unusually a great big hurricane and yesterday this hurricane was a

:44:15. > :44:17.category one and today it is a category four, is running parallel

:44:18. > :44:22.with the coastline and it will turn and head towards north-west Mexico,

:44:23. > :44:27.and that will be late tomorrow. As it does, it will lose its hurricane

:44:28. > :44:31.status, it is being ripped apart by the winds aloft, it will be a

:44:32. > :44:35.tropical storm, and it will still be windy, but the rain will be a real

:44:36. > :44:39.feature, there will be torrential rain in a short amount of time which

:44:40. > :44:46.could lead to flooding. It is Thanksgiving in America today, and

:44:47. > :44:49.we have got more wet weather, see this line here, what is happening,

:44:50. > :44:56.this is what we call a convergence zone, we are dragging in this air,

:44:57. > :45:00.and the Gulf of Mexico is around 27 Celsius, and it is clashing with

:45:01. > :45:04.this cold air coming down from the Rockies, we have this big line of

:45:05. > :45:10.torrential rain, thunderstorms, and the northern edge, and also some

:45:11. > :45:14.snow. That could lead to disruption. It is Thanksgiving, Black Friday, a

:45:15. > :45:19.big shopping day in America tomorrow leading into the weekend. Some

:45:20. > :45:30.parts, from Texas to Michigan, they could have as much of as three days

:45:31. > :45:33.of this flooding. It makes our weather look quite nice by

:45:34. > :45:38.comparison, although it is not very nice. It is lovely to see you. What

:45:39. > :45:45.we're looking at, in the UK, something more unsubtle,

:45:46. > :45:48.temperatures in America, 13 Celsius, but we could top the New York

:45:49. > :45:52.temperature in Aberdeen, we could see 15 degrees. We have had a cold

:45:53. > :45:56.start to the day in the East, but for the rest of us it has been a

:45:57. > :46:04.mild start, also fairly cloudy. Some brighter breaks. We still have

:46:05. > :46:08.some, eastern parts of Scotland and eastern England, but for others the

:46:09. > :46:14.breaks will fill in. Plenty of cloud this morning, across the north and

:46:15. > :46:17.west, we have low cloud and dank conditions, and also hill fog, and

:46:18. > :46:23.showery outbreaks of rain and drizzle moving to the East. Through

:46:24. > :46:25.the day we have more rain, across Northern Ireland and western

:46:26. > :46:29.Scotland and into western parts of England and Wales. This is the

:46:30. > :46:35.afternoon picture, more rain, and all of this rain across Scotland,

:46:36. > :46:41.further east, that is pretty good, we could hit 15 degrees, but we hang

:46:42. > :46:48.on the mist and Merck across western England, Wales, even the South of

:46:49. > :46:51.England. 11 and 12, not very windy, just a light breeze, and for the

:46:52. > :46:58.Midlands and into the South East, just showers and drizzle, but here

:46:59. > :47:02.and there we will have sunny spells. Into the evening and overnight, it

:47:03. > :47:06.is a murky picture, plenty of cloud around, and again hill fog and a

:47:07. > :47:10.band of more persistent rain coming our way with strengthening winds

:47:11. > :47:15.across the North West. As a result, it will not be very cold overnight,

:47:16. > :47:20.and we start tomorrow and the note once again, a lot of cloud, murky

:47:21. > :47:25.conditions, especially in the West but not exclusively. And then the

:47:26. > :47:31.heavy and persistent rain sinking South, it will be accompanied by

:47:32. > :47:37.squally wins, sudden gusts of strong winds, and ahead of this,

:47:38. > :47:41.comparatively mild -- squally winds. Although behind the band of rain,

:47:42. > :47:45.for Scotland and Northern Ireland, we returned to sunshine and showers,

:47:46. > :47:49.increasingly they will be wintry, especially over the hills and also

:47:50. > :47:53.the mountains. As we go in through Friday night, some of that will get

:47:54. > :47:56.down to lower levels, but by Saturday it will retreat back into

:47:57. > :48:02.the hills and mountains. Picking up the band of rain, the cold weather

:48:03. > :48:06.front, it continues to Friday into Saturday, to move down to the

:48:07. > :48:09.south-east, eventually clearing. Opening the gates for more windy

:48:10. > :48:13.conditions, as you can see from the proximity of the isobars, and an

:48:14. > :48:20.array of Atlanta fronts coming our way. -- Atlantique. We have a clue

:48:21. > :48:25.weekend, it will also be windy, for much of the weekend, some with

:48:26. > :48:30.gales, even severe gales with exposure, and there will be rain,

:48:31. > :48:35.but also sunny spells. Unsettled, probably sums it up quite nicely.

:48:36. > :48:39.Hello, welcome to the programme if you've just joined us.

:48:40. > :48:47.David Cameron will attempt to persuade MPs that

:48:48. > :48:50.the UK should join in with air strikes against the Islamic State

:48:51. > :49:04.terror group in Syria, but what's the military case for action?

:49:05. > :49:13.We will bring you his statement live in about half an hour.

:49:14. > :49:16.As the Chancellor promises to give a hand to families hoping to get

:49:17. > :49:19.a foot on the housing ladder, we'll find out what some

:49:20. > :49:21.of those prospective homeowners make of the measures revealed yesterday.

:49:22. > :49:26.David Cameron is to set out his case for the UK to join air

:49:27. > :49:35.strikes against the Islamic State terror group in Syria.

:49:36. > :49:41.He has warned that British interests are under threat, he will outline

:49:42. > :49:47.his case to join a strikes in the next half an hour or so.

:49:48. > :49:54.Francois Hollande is in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin full talks

:49:55. > :49:59.about the fight against the so-called Islamic. Tensions are high

:50:00. > :50:02.after Turkey shot down a Russian plane earlier this week.

:50:03. > :50:05.Turkey has released an audio recording of the warnings it says it

:50:06. > :50:08.gave a Russian fighter jet before it shot it down by the Syrian

:50:09. > :50:13.The aircraft was downed on Tuesday after claims it violated Turkish

:50:14. > :50:18.The Russian President Vladimir Putin is holding talks with the French

:50:19. > :50:20.President Francois Hollande today in Moscow, to discuss the fight

:50:21. > :50:27.The Chancellor George Osborne has defended his decision to abandon tax

:50:28. > :50:32.He said it was not a weakness to listen,

:50:33. > :50:42.and the improved economy had made it possible to reverse the policy.

:50:43. > :50:50.Britain needs to move to the lower welfare, higher wage economy, it is

:50:51. > :50:54.the right thing for our country. We can help families in the transition

:50:55. > :50:55.to that economy and use the improvement in the public finances

:50:56. > :51:08.to do that. Net immigration has hit a new high,

:51:09. > :51:12.336,000 in the 12 months to the end of June, a jump of 82,000. The

:51:13. > :51:14.Government target is tens of thousands by 2020.

:51:15. > :51:16.Talks are due to begin at the conciliation service Acas

:51:17. > :51:19.in an effort to avert industrial action by junior doctors.

:51:20. > :51:22.The first of three planned walkouts is scheduled for next Tuesday, in

:51:23. > :51:28.Members of the rock group who survived the Paris terror attack

:51:29. > :51:32.during their gig at the Bataclan concert hall say they are determined

:51:33. > :51:37.The Eagles of Death Metal were on stage in the Bataclan theatre

:51:38. > :51:44.Let's catch up with all the sport now and join Hugh,

:51:45. > :51:49.and there's some unhappy Manchester United fans this morning.

:51:50. > :51:51.A disappointing night for both the Manchester sides

:51:52. > :51:57.Boos reverberated around Old Trafford after a goalless draw

:51:58. > :52:01.against PSV Eindhoven left their chances of qualifying from

:52:02. > :52:07.United created few goal-scoring opportunities during the match,

:52:08. > :52:10.Jesse Lingard missed the best of them.

:52:11. > :52:20.Manager Louis van Gaal called it the performance disappointing.

:52:21. > :52:29.They now have to beat Wolfsburg to guarantee a place in the last 16.

:52:30. > :52:32.Instead, Mario Mandzukic's first-half strike secured

:52:33. > :52:35.the three points for the Italians as City went down 1-0 in Turin.

:52:36. > :52:42.Worryingly, goalkeeper Joe Hart went off with a

:52:43. > :52:45.Well, watching the elite football teams in the country can

:52:46. > :52:49.be difficult and costly, driving fans to look for tickets online.

:52:50. > :52:53.The Premier League claim a reported ?8 million worth

:52:54. > :52:56.of unofficial Manchester United tickets were on sale last season.

:52:57. > :52:59.We're going to speak to Cathy Long about the issue, she's the Premier

:53:00. > :53:05.What's the message of your new campaign and what can the Premier

:53:06. > :53:16.The key message is for people not to get tricked by unofficial and fake

:53:17. > :53:19.tickets, we want to make sure people are buying from official sources to

:53:20. > :53:21.make sure they are getting a real ticket.

:53:22. > :53:23.Fans will say the tickets are expensive,

:53:24. > :53:30.do clubs have a duty to make sure fans don't need to look elsewhere

:53:31. > :53:38.The clubs are working hard, they want to make sure people can buy

:53:39. > :53:42.them efficiently. 96% of tickets are sold out, so people are looking

:53:43. > :53:44.them efficiently. 96% of tickets are where they can. Clubs are setting up

:53:45. > :53:51.ticket exchanges so they can buy at face value. Do you feel it is the

:53:52. > :53:57.Premier League's responsibility to do something to stop the touts?

:53:58. > :54:01.Outside games, for example? We want to make sure people not having to

:54:02. > :54:06.buy from touts, the only way they can guarantee getting in properly is

:54:07. > :54:12.through the official club channels and not to buy tickets from

:54:13. > :54:14.unofficial sites, because people are buying fake tickets, people are

:54:15. > :54:19.being sold a reservation number online, turning up and going away

:54:20. > :54:21.disappointed, not getting into the game.

:54:22. > :54:23.Now, you may remember yesterday we told

:54:24. > :54:26.you about 16-year-old Rebekah Tiler, the weightlifter from Keighley who

:54:27. > :54:30.was competing for the first time as a senior last night in the World

:54:31. > :54:40.She finished 13th overall, this one of her snatch lifts of 93 kilograms.

:54:41. > :54:43.Fellow Briton Zoe Smith broke two British records at the event

:54:44. > :54:47.as she came ninth, that's the best result for a British lifter at

:54:48. > :54:52.So, congratulations to Zoe, much more to come, I'm sure.

:54:53. > :55:01.Thank you for joining us this morning,

:55:02. > :55:05.welcome to the programme if you've just joined us, we're on BBC Two and

:55:06. > :55:11.Your contributions to this programme and your expertise really is key,

:55:12. > :55:16.Texts will be charged at the standard network rate.

:55:17. > :55:19.And of course you can watch the programme online wherever you

:55:20. > :55:36.are, via the BBC News app or our website, bbc.co.uk/victoria.

:55:37. > :55:39.In the next hour, Prime Minister David Cameron is to set out the case

:55:40. > :55:41.all by going to Add Topics app and searching Victoria Derbyshire.

:55:42. > :55:44.for joining air strikes against Islamic State militants in Syria.

:55:45. > :55:47.But as it stands, just how many air strikes are being carried out by

:55:48. > :55:50.coalition forces against so-called Islamic State targets so far?

:55:51. > :55:53.And how does this compare to air strikes carried out

:55:54. > :56:29.The US led coalition is bombing Islamic State around the clock.

:56:30. > :56:32.Each beat represents one hour,

:56:33. > :56:34.and each blip represents one sortie, one combat mission.

:56:35. > :56:37.So every time you hear a blip, a coalition aircraft is taking

:56:38. > :56:44.A little over two sorties every hour of every day

:56:45. > :56:52.If that sounds relentless, listen to what Serbia faced during

:56:53. > :57:08.More than five combat sorties every hour of every day.

:57:09. > :57:15.Here is the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

:57:16. > :57:21.40 combat missions an hour, for weeks.

:57:22. > :57:44.The US alone flew 70 combat missions in almost four years.

:57:45. > :58:03.Again, the effort against Islamic State.

:58:04. > :58:13.More comments from you, John says, where are the German, Belgian and

:58:14. > :58:17.other EU countries in this campaign, or are we just USA puppet again?

:58:18. > :58:24.Lawrence says, let the people decide, not those at Westminster,

:58:25. > :58:31.like Jeremy Corbyn or the SNP, we would vote to bomb to save the UK

:58:32. > :58:33.people. Mel says, we must defend our country, what amazes me is that

:58:34. > :58:38.there are so many countries involved in S strikes and they cannot

:58:39. > :58:44.eradicate them, is it time for boots on the ground? Chris says, President

:58:45. > :58:48.Assad is running his country with the firm hand it needs, we should

:58:49. > :58:52.learn the lesson from Iraq when it comes to deposing those who do not

:58:53. > :58:59.fit nicely into our apparent ethical ideal. Plenty more comments from you

:59:00. > :59:06.in the next little while. That go to Norman Smith. We await the Prime

:59:07. > :59:11.Minister's statement later, but hints as to what he is going to

:59:12. > :59:18.say? I have here his written statement, that he wants MPs to

:59:19. > :59:21.read. He has released it ahead of him getting to his feet in 15

:59:22. > :59:27.minutes, so they can begin to digestive. It is not a token press

:59:28. > :59:37.release or a quick cut-and-paste, it is 36 pages, detailed argument by Mr

:59:38. > :59:43.Cameron, setting out his case for why we should go for war, why we

:59:44. > :59:46.should bomb Islamic State in Syria. When we were talking earlier, I was

:59:47. > :59:49.flagging up some of the questions he would have to answer, suggesting

:59:50. > :59:54.there were two difficult questions he would have to answer, who is

:59:55. > :59:58.going to provide the ground troops to destroy IS and what happens

:59:59. > :00:04.afterwards with President Assad, going through the report, Mr Cameron

:00:05. > :00:13.struggling with answers to these questions. On ground troops, he says

:00:14. > :00:18.that getting other regional powers involved is going to be difficult,

:00:19. > :00:24.and, in his words, could risk inflaming the conflict. I will give

:00:25. > :00:28.you the full quote, it will be difficult in Syria, because

:00:29. > :00:31.President Assad's forces are still fighting against the moderate

:00:32. > :00:37.opposition, there is no prospect of intervention by an external ground

:00:38. > :00:42.force, any ground force could risk inflaming the conflict rather than

:00:43. > :00:45.contributing to a settlement. The judgment that answering the question

:00:46. > :00:49.on ground troops is still very difficult. The second tough question

:00:50. > :00:55.was on what happens afterwards, what do we do about President Assad? He

:00:56. > :01:00.says, and orderly political transition is not possible for as

:01:01. > :01:06.long as President Assad remains in power. That points to the sort of

:01:07. > :01:13.gridlock between us and the Russians, because the Russians, they

:01:14. > :01:16.game plan seems to be to prop up President Assad, our view is he has

:01:17. > :01:21.to go if there is to be any sort of diplomatic solution. The Prime

:01:22. > :01:22.Minister seems to be acknowledging there are some tough answers that he

:01:23. > :01:36.will have to find. Norman, thanks. Our security expert

:01:37. > :01:41.is so, can you help us through this? Sure, we can boil this down to

:01:42. > :01:44.basics. Britain is already at war with so-called Islamic State, this

:01:45. > :01:49.is very different from two years ago, when MPs were presented a very

:01:50. > :01:54.weak case in Parliament as to whether or not Britain should start

:01:55. > :01:57.a military conflict with President Assad's forces to punish it for his

:01:58. > :02:03.perceived role in gassing his own people. At the last minute, that was

:02:04. > :02:07.voted down, and even America did not do it in the end. This is different,

:02:08. > :02:12.Britain is all free at war with them in Iraq, they have already carried

:02:13. > :02:16.out several attempted plots in this country, and so the government's

:02:17. > :02:22.logic is it is ridiculous to be confined to only half of the soccer

:02:23. > :02:25.pitch when they have the gamut across Syria and Iraq, the entire

:02:26. > :02:28.soccer pitch, and they want to extend across that pretty much

:02:29. > :02:34.nonexistent border between Syria and Iraq. They also looking ahead to a

:02:35. > :02:38.time when Mosul will be retake on and what is left of Isis will flood

:02:39. > :02:42.back across the Syrian border and they need to be able to hit them

:02:43. > :02:46.there. We should be under no illusion of two things, firstly, if

:02:47. > :02:52.he wins this vote and Britain starts military action against so-called

:02:53. > :03:00.Isis in Syria, that is not going to end them. Almost nothing will change

:03:01. > :03:03.overnight. It will make a small difference, Britain's Brimstone

:03:04. > :03:06.missiles are more accurate than the Americans, but that will not end

:03:07. > :03:11.Islamic State will stop the other thing, it will make Britain more of

:03:12. > :03:15.a target than we are already for terrorism, but we are already a

:03:16. > :03:20.target, but it will increase it. People should have no illusions by

:03:21. > :03:22.that, they will because for revenge in the way that they have done with

:03:23. > :03:28.the French. Frank, thanks for joining us. David Cameron's address

:03:29. > :03:31.to MPs in the House of Commons comes after the Foreign Affairs Committee

:03:32. > :03:38.report which said the UK should not join Allied bombing in Syria without

:03:39. > :03:40.a coherent international strategy and IS, but what is the right

:03:41. > :03:53.strategy? -- on IS. With us are two senior figures with

:03:54. > :03:55.differing viewpoints, the UK's former ambassador to

:03:56. > :04:04.Syria Peter Ford and former What would you like to hear from

:04:05. > :04:10.David Cameron? Peter Ford. First of all, Frank understated the security

:04:11. > :04:16.risks to the people in this country,... I made it very clear.

:04:17. > :04:18.risks to the people in this think you understated it, if

:04:19. > :04:27.me expand. We do not necessarily me expand. We do not necessarily

:04:28. > :04:32.they react to actions, and me expand. We do not necessarily

:04:33. > :04:33.why the British tourists were killed in Tunisia, because we were bombing

:04:34. > :04:36.in Iraq. David Cameron has in Tunisia, because we were bombing

:04:37. > :04:44.to the number of attempted attacks. in Tunisia, because we were bombing

:04:45. > :04:47.were actually IS. He in Tunisia, because we were bombing

:04:48. > :04:54.us, and anyway, maybe some of these were in preparation for what will

:04:55. > :04:59.follow after the vote. I'm confident that if we vote to go to war the

:05:00. > :05:06.people of Britain must prepare for carnage on our streets. That is a

:05:07. > :05:12.serious warning. We have doubts on my left and on my right. I will come

:05:13. > :05:18.to you in a moment. What you say that David Cameron should say

:05:19. > :05:22.instead of attacking IS in Syria? There is a good plan on the table

:05:23. > :05:27.known as the Vienna process, led by the Russians, to arrange a ceasefire

:05:28. > :05:34.between the Syrian government and willing parties. Such as? This is

:05:35. > :05:39.for definition by the West, the West have been handed the task of

:05:40. > :05:45.defining who are the so-called moderates, who do not exist anyway.

:05:46. > :05:49.They did initially. Hopefully, there will be a C five between these

:05:50. > :05:56.parties, and these parties will attack IS -- there will be a

:05:57. > :05:58.ceasefire between. This is a plausible strategy which would

:05:59. > :06:06.deliver boots on the ground, but without that, David Cameron's

:06:07. > :06:10.strategy will not work. Lord West, what should the prime ministers say?

:06:11. > :06:14.In a strange way, the issue of bombing in Syria is a side issue,

:06:15. > :06:20.the important thing is we do need to destroy Isil. We are at risk anyway

:06:21. > :06:27.and we know from the websites, they are encouraging people to attack us

:06:28. > :06:30.on a daily basis, and if you look at Isil, I first came across them in

:06:31. > :06:34.2003, in Jordan, they are similar to Al-Qaeda, and we were attacked

:06:35. > :06:41.before we bombed anyone like that, and able keep attacking us. We are

:06:42. > :06:44.already bombing them in Iraq, to think that this will add to the

:06:45. > :06:50.threat to us, that is wrong, we are already under threat. I do believe

:06:51. > :06:53.David Cameron and the government have been semi-detached from this

:06:54. > :06:56.until recently, it is of the Russians getting involved, we have

:06:57. > :07:01.not had an overarching strategy of how to defeat Isil and stop the War

:07:02. > :07:06.in Syria, and what we should have done is made huge pressure to get a

:07:07. > :07:12.contact group formed, the work that has been done in Vienna, to talk to

:07:13. > :07:17.Iran, for example, and to talk to Assad, he's a fact on the ground. He

:07:18. > :07:22.is there. You might be a butcher, but we have got to talk to him. What

:07:23. > :07:25.have we got to say? We need to get him into the diplomatic arena, to

:07:26. > :07:29.look at what happens in the future, and then we need to think about

:07:30. > :07:34.massive input into stopping money flows, massive input into stopping

:07:35. > :07:38.oil, even if we have to destroy oil wells, to stop the oil flows, we

:07:39. > :07:43.need a massive propaganda battle against them, we can win that. We

:07:44. > :07:51.have good people in that area. We need to increase the military tempo,

:07:52. > :07:54.armed the Peshmerga properly. And the sequential campaign, we defeat

:07:55. > :07:59.them in Iraq first of all, we have the Iraqi army which is looking

:08:00. > :08:07.better, we need to turn the Sunni tribes onto our site, they helped us

:08:08. > :08:13.defeat Al-Qaeda in Iraq. -- side. We need... The bombing, in a sense is a

:08:14. > :08:20.marginal issue. I want to get to a position of clarity, you clearly

:08:21. > :08:28.both regard IS, Da'ish, as the principal aim, so you both agree on

:08:29. > :08:31.that? It is a question of how you get to the point where they are no

:08:32. > :08:40.longer as effective as you would argue they are at the moment

:08:41. > :08:43.question not Peter Ford. I agree there are many things we could be

:08:44. > :08:49.doing, stopping the money flows, stopping the oil, going to Turkey,

:08:50. > :08:52.by the way, one of our allies, they need to put pressure on Saudi Arabia

:08:53. > :08:59.and Turkey, to stop them funnelling billions into the conflict. Would

:09:00. > :09:05.you argue with that? Turkey are part of the Sunni Shia issue, to be

:09:06. > :09:10.honest. There is a Sunni agenda and that is a problem. We can do these

:09:11. > :09:16.good things, stopping the oil, the money, without bombing, bombing will

:09:17. > :09:21.add nothing militarily, nothing significant, even the government

:09:22. > :09:25.admits it will not be a game changer, but the proposition is that

:09:26. > :09:34.we indulge in some recreational bombing of Raqqa. You say that is

:09:35. > :09:39.not a game changer. Can I just say this, hundreds of people's lives

:09:40. > :09:42.will be put at risk I can see the body parts being picked up, we have

:09:43. > :09:48.got to approach this in all seriousness, this is not a game. It

:09:49. > :09:54.is not recreational bombing, there was a need for air strikes when it

:09:55. > :09:57.Isil were beginning to do it to me when in Iraq, that did stop them,

:09:58. > :10:01.and I think using air power, and when we have finished the Iraqi bit,

:10:02. > :10:04.we will need air power, and when we have finished the Iraqi bit, we will

:10:05. > :10:07.need airpower and special forces and also using troops on the ground,

:10:08. > :10:11.people like Assad, some of the democratic force on our side, I

:10:12. > :10:15.would like to see the UN more involved and I would like to see

:10:16. > :10:23.Syria partitioned and have a UN mandate of eastern Syria, Egyptian,

:10:24. > :10:27.Jordanian, maybe, nonsectarian, something like that, but very

:10:28. > :10:32.difficult to do. Frank, picked up where we are. Much of this is about

:10:33. > :10:37.perception in the Middle East and the way things are perceived,

:10:38. > :10:43.because this is a very public vote which will be held, very public case

:10:44. > :10:46.being made, this will be picked up definitely by Isis and they will be

:10:47. > :10:50.watching the way this goes, and they will probably put together videos

:10:51. > :10:53.that take excerpts from the debate in the House of Commons, they will

:10:54. > :10:58.look at statements which are made and they will use that for

:10:59. > :11:03.propaganda purposes. I still maintain that there will be a step

:11:04. > :11:06.up in terrorist threat, and I think there is already a terrorist threat

:11:07. > :11:14.from so-called Islamic State, they are linked to the last seventh

:11:15. > :11:17.thwarted attacks, we are lucky it has not happened, but they will see

:11:18. > :11:20.what is going on in the Commons and they will see the debate in Britain

:11:21. > :11:27.and they will use it for propaganda purposes. We have a few common,

:11:28. > :11:34.bombing alone will not work, says one, we have agreed on that. Another

:11:35. > :11:40.one says, they cannot beat Da'ish in Iraq, when they have the backing of

:11:41. > :11:44.Iraqis. What about that? I do think there needs to be a military part of

:11:45. > :11:49.this campaign, we are already bombing Isil in Iraq, it makes no

:11:50. > :11:53.sense to not do the same in Syria. The addition of our aircraft is not

:11:54. > :12:04.immense, we are part of a coalition of 60 aircraft. So it won't make an

:12:05. > :12:11.enormous difference Britain not instantly, -- enormous difference?

:12:12. > :12:17.Not initially, but we are better at this, we are more accurate. Do you

:12:18. > :12:21.agree? After the vote, and whether or not we are ready to bomb, this

:12:22. > :12:24.country will not be put on a higher state of alert, because if we are,

:12:25. > :12:30.that proves the point we are walking towards a higher threat and we are

:12:31. > :12:35.walking eyes wide shut, and if we are not going to raise the alert, it

:12:36. > :12:39.is criminally negligent. We are at a state of severe, it is great that we

:12:40. > :12:43.continue our lives as we do, severe means we are highly likely to have

:12:44. > :12:46.an attack. If you went to a heart doctor and he said you are highly

:12:47. > :12:52.likely to die, you would be pretty focused. The only next step up is

:12:53. > :12:56.one which means there is an imminent attack, and to go to that you have

:12:57. > :13:00.to have specific evidence of an attack which is being formulated and

:13:01. > :13:04.pull together, and if there is one, they would deal with it, but at the

:13:05. > :13:07.moment we are basically still likely to have an attack, and every day

:13:08. > :13:16.they are asking their followers to kill us. Go to their websites. Look

:13:17. > :13:19.at the map, Lord West made the reference that there is still a

:13:20. > :13:26.border between Syria and Iraq, but no one near the border pays any

:13:27. > :13:32.attention to it. So there is a lack of logic, if you like, if you bomb

:13:33. > :13:37.on one side, and not the other. This is superficial, the difference is

:13:38. > :13:42.between Iraq and Syria, the differences are great, Syria is a

:13:43. > :13:48.tile baby, you pick it up and you will get heart, you are getting

:13:49. > :13:55.sucked into the mire. -- you will get heart. We heard people early on

:13:56. > :14:01.the programme lusting after getting British boots on the ground, this is

:14:02. > :14:03.where we are headed. He was talking about boots from somewhere, not

:14:04. > :14:09.British boots, and you would argue that will be inevitable, the

:14:10. > :14:14.endgame? Once you have destroyed Isil, that is the first in, we have

:14:15. > :14:18.got to try and stop the war, and that will involve Assad and others

:14:19. > :14:22.and it will be a messy business, but we need a contact group, and we need

:14:23. > :14:29.to establish that, I think something like split into two big zones with

:14:30. > :14:33.the UN involved, that will not be easy, but we have got to use

:14:34. > :14:35.military power against Isil, and part of that is bombing, and I

:14:36. > :14:41.believe the UK should play its part. We are under great threat now.

:14:42. > :14:46.They're with me, we are about to cross to the Commons, but thanks for

:14:47. > :14:50.spotting the debate which will no doubt continue in the House of

:14:51. > :14:52.Commons. Norman Smith is there for us at Westminster as we await David

:14:53. > :15:02.Cameron, what is happening? It is packed inside the chamber,

:15:03. > :15:08.this is a big moment. What is interesting, over the weekend there

:15:09. > :15:12.were various briefings suggesting Mr Cameron was going to say, do we want

:15:13. > :15:18.to be like Churchill or Neville Chamberlain, and emotive argument. I

:15:19. > :15:24.think he wants to take some of the emotion out of it and make a much

:15:25. > :15:28.more level-headed argument, I Russian opposition. That was the

:15:29. > :15:32.impression I got reading that 36 page document which he has prepared

:15:33. > :15:38.for MPs so they can read it when they go into the chamber. It is

:15:39. > :15:43.detailed, closely argued, the case for why we should be involved in

:15:44. > :15:48.bombing, there is not much rhetoric in it. Actually, at the end of the

:15:49. > :15:53.day, that may be more effective if he wants to persuade MPs to back

:15:54. > :15:59.bombing. Let's cross into the chamber, because he is speaking.

:16:00. > :16:04.The report on extending British military operations to Syria. I have

:16:05. > :16:07.done so in copies -- and copies of my response have been available. The

:16:08. > :16:13.committee produced a comprehensive report which asked a series of

:16:14. > :16:16.important questions. I have tried to listen very carefully to the

:16:17. > :16:21.questions and views expressed by members on all sides of the house. I

:16:22. > :16:24.want to try and answer all of the relevant questions today. There are

:16:25. > :16:30.different ways of putting them, but they boil down to this, why, why

:16:31. > :16:36.ask, why now, is what we are contemplating legal, where are the

:16:37. > :16:39.ground troops to help us meet our objectives, what is the strategy

:16:40. > :16:45.that brings together everything that we are doing, especially in Syria,

:16:46. > :16:49.is there an end to this conflict, and is there a plan for what

:16:50. > :16:55.follows? Let me deal with each question as directly as

:16:56. > :17:00.follows? Let me deal with each First, why. The reason for acting is

:17:01. > :17:02.follows? Let me deal with each the very direct threat that Isil

:17:03. > :17:06.poses to our country and way of life, they have attacked Ankara,

:17:07. > :17:08.Beirut and Paris, as well as the likely blowing up of a Russian plane

:17:09. > :17:14.with 224 people on board. They likely blowing up of a Russian plane

:17:15. > :17:16.already taken the lives of British hostages and inspired the worst

:17:17. > :17:22.terrorist attack against British people since the 7th of July on the

:17:23. > :17:28.beaches of Tunisia. They have repeatedly tried to attack us right

:17:29. > :17:32.here in Britain. In the last 12 months, we have disrupted no fewer

:17:33. > :17:37.than seven terrorist plots to attack the UK. Every one of which was

:17:38. > :17:43.either linked to Isil or inspired by their propaganda. I am in no doubt

:17:44. > :17:48.that it is in our national interest for action to be taken to stop

:17:49. > :17:51.them. Stopping them means taking action in Syria, because it is rack

:17:52. > :17:58.that is their headquarters. White is? My first responsibility as Prime

:17:59. > :18:02.Minister and our first job in this house is to keep the British people

:18:03. > :18:08.safe. We have the assets to do that, and we can significantly

:18:09. > :18:12.extend the capabilities of the international coalition forces. That

:18:13. > :18:19.is one reason why members of the international coalition, including

:18:20. > :18:23.in the DOTMAC and Francois Armand, one Briton to stand with them in

:18:24. > :18:29.joining air strikes in Syria as well as Iraq. These are our closest

:18:30. > :18:32.allies and they want our help. Partly this is about our

:18:33. > :18:38.capabilities, as we are showing in Iraq the RAF can carry out what is

:18:39. > :18:42.called dynamic targeting, our pilots can strike the most difficult

:18:43. > :18:46.targets at a rapid pace and with extraordinary precision and provide

:18:47. > :18:50.vital battle winning close as support to local forces on the

:18:51. > :18:54.ground. We have the brimstone precision missile system which

:18:55. > :18:59.enables us to strike accurately with minimum collateral damage, something

:19:00. > :19:02.that even the Americans do not have. The raptor pod on our Tornado

:19:03. > :19:08.aircraft has no rival, currently gathering 60% of the coalition's

:19:09. > :19:12.entire tactical reconnaissance in Iraq while being equipped for

:19:13. > :19:17.strikes. Our repercussions are providing up to 30% of the

:19:18. > :19:23.intelligence in Syria, they are not currently able to use their missile

:19:24. > :19:27.systems. We also have the proven ability to sustain our operations,

:19:28. > :19:32.not just for weeks, but, if necessary, for months. Of course we

:19:33. > :19:36.have these capabilities, but the most important answer to the

:19:37. > :19:42.question, why us, is I believe even more fundamental, and it is this, we

:19:43. > :19:46.should not be content with outsourcing our security to our

:19:47. > :19:51.allies. If we believe that action can help protect us, with our allies

:19:52. > :19:57.we should be part of that action, not standing aside from it. From

:19:58. > :20:01.this moral point comes a fundamental question, if we will not act now

:20:02. > :20:06.when our friend and ally France has been struck in this way, our allies

:20:07. > :20:12.in the world can be forgiven for asking, if not now, when? That leads

:20:13. > :20:20.to the next question, why now? The first answer is because of the great

:20:21. > :20:24.danger that Isil poses to our security, which has clearly

:20:25. > :20:27.intensified in recent weeks. There are additional reasons why action

:20:28. > :20:33.now is so important. Look at what has changed not just the attack in

:20:34. > :20:37.Paris, but the world has come together and agreed a UN Security

:20:38. > :20:41.Council resolution. There is a real political process underway. This

:20:42. > :20:46.could lead to a new Government in Syria, with whom we can work to

:20:47. > :20:50.defeat Isil for good. As I explained yesterday, we can not wait for that

:20:51. > :20:56.to be complete before we begin acting to degrade Isil and reducing

:20:57. > :21:01.their capability to attack us. Let's be clear about the military

:21:02. > :21:05.objectives that we are pursuing. We want to defeat the terrorists by

:21:06. > :21:09.dismantling their networks, stopping their funding, targeting their

:21:10. > :21:13.training camps and taking out those plotting terror attacks against the

:21:14. > :21:18.UK, that there is a broader objective, for as long as Isil can

:21:19. > :21:22.peddle the myth of a so-called caliphate in Iraq and Syria, it will

:21:23. > :21:28.be a rallying call for Islamist extremist all around the world, and

:21:29. > :21:32.that makes us less safe. Just as we have reduced the scale and size of

:21:33. > :21:36.the so-called caliphate in Iraq, increasingly pushing it out of

:21:37. > :21:43.Iraq, so we need to do the same thing in Syria. Indeed, another

:21:44. > :21:47.reason for action now is that the success in Iraq in squeezing the

:21:48. > :21:53.so-called caliphate is put at risk I our failure to act in Syria. This

:21:54. > :21:55.border is not recognised by Isil, and we hamper our efforts if we stop

:21:56. > :22:01.acting when we reached the Syrian border. When we come to the

:22:02. > :22:04.question, why now, we have to ask ourselves whether the risks of

:22:05. > :22:11.inaction are greater than the risks of taking action. Every day we fail

:22:12. > :22:15.to act is a day when temporary macro can go stronger and more plots can

:22:16. > :22:21.be undertaken. That is why all the advice I have received, the military

:22:22. > :22:27.advice, diplomatic advice, security advice, all says, yes, the risks of

:22:28. > :22:31.inaction are greater. Some of our specifically -- some have asked if

:22:32. > :22:35.taking action could make us more of a target for attacks. Let me tell

:22:36. > :22:39.the house the judgment of the director-general of the security

:22:40. > :22:43.service and the chairman of the joint intelligence committee is that

:22:44. > :22:48.the UK is already in the top tier of countries that Isil is targeting. I

:22:49. > :22:54.am clear the only way to deal with that reality is to address the

:22:55. > :23:00.threat we face and to do so now. Let me turn to the question of legality.

:23:01. > :23:04.It is a long-standing constitutional convention that we do not publish

:23:05. > :23:08.our formal legal advice, but the document I published today shows in

:23:09. > :23:13.some detail the clear legal basis for military action against Isil in

:23:14. > :23:18.Syria. It is founded on the right of self defence as recognised in

:23:19. > :23:22.Article 51 of the UN Charter. The right of self defence may be

:23:23. > :23:27.exercised individually, where it is necessary to the UK's own defence,

:23:28. > :23:32.and collectively, in the defence of our friends and allies. The main

:23:33. > :23:37.basis of the global coalition's actions against Isil in Syria is the

:23:38. > :23:42.collective self defence of Iraq, Iraq has a legitimate Government,

:23:43. > :23:45.which we support and help. There is a solid basis of evidence on which

:23:46. > :23:50.to conclude that there is a direct link between the present and

:23:51. > :23:55.activities of Isil in Syria and their ongoing attack in Iraq, and

:23:56. > :24:00.that the President Assad regime is unwilling and or unable to take

:24:01. > :24:05.action necessary to prevent Isil's continued attack on Iraq or attacks

:24:06. > :24:10.on us. It is clear that Isil's campaign against the UK and our

:24:11. > :24:14.allies has reached the level of an armed attack, such that force may

:24:15. > :24:20.lawfully be used in self defence to prevent further atrocities being

:24:21. > :24:23.committed by Isil. This is further underscored by the unanimous

:24:24. > :24:28.adoption of UN Security Council resolution to 249. We shall be clear

:24:29. > :24:34.about what this means and what it says. The whole world came

:24:35. > :24:37.together, including all five members of the security council, to agree

:24:38. > :24:42.this resolution unanimously. The resolution states that Isil

:24:43. > :24:47.constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to

:24:48. > :24:53.international peace and security. It calls for member states to take, I

:24:54. > :24:57.quote, all necessary measures to prevent and suppress terrorist acts

:24:58. > :25:03.committed specifically by Isil. Crucially, it says we should, I

:25:04. > :25:08.quote, eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant

:25:09. > :25:13.parts of Iraq and Syria. Turning to the question of which ground forces

:25:14. > :25:18.will assist us, in Iraq, the answer is clear, we have the Iraqi security

:25:19. > :25:23.forces and the Kurdish patch murder. In Syria, it is more complicated,

:25:24. > :25:28.but as the report I am publishing shows, we believe there are around

:25:29. > :25:32.70,000 Syrian opposition fighters are principally the Free Syrian

:25:33. > :25:37.Army, who do not belong to extremist groups, and with whom we can

:25:38. > :25:39.coordinate attacks on Isil. There are the Kurdish armed groups who

:25:40. > :25:46.also have shown themselves capable of taking territory, holding

:25:47. > :25:49.territory and administering it, and releasing the suffering that the

:25:50. > :25:55.civilian population had endured under Isil control. The Syrian Kurds

:25:56. > :26:02.have successfully defended Kurdish areas in northern Syria and retaken

:26:03. > :26:04.territory around the city of -- the city. Moderate Sunni Arabs have

:26:05. > :26:09.defended territory north of Aleppo and they have stopped Isil attempts

:26:10. > :26:15.to capture the main border crossing with Turkey and sweeping into it led

:26:16. > :26:19.province. In the South, the southern front of the Free Syrian Army has

:26:20. > :26:23.consolidated its control over significant areas and has worked to

:26:24. > :26:28.prevent terrorists from operating. These people I have talked about our

:26:29. > :26:33.ground troops, they need our help, when they get it, they succeed, so

:26:34. > :26:37.we should do more to help them from the air. Those who ask questions

:26:38. > :26:42.about ground troops are right to do so. The full answer cannot be

:26:43. > :26:47.achieved until there is a new Syrian Government that represents all the

:26:48. > :26:52.Syrian people are not just Sunni, Shia and Alan White, but Christians

:26:53. > :26:55.and others. It is this new Government who will be the natural

:26:56. > :27:00.partners for our forces in defeating Isil for good.

:27:01. > :27:04.partners for our forces in defeating simply from the air or purely

:27:05. > :27:04.partners for our forces in defeating military action alone. It requires a

:27:05. > :27:07.full political settlement. military action alone. It requires a

:27:08. > :27:09.question is, can we military action alone. It requires a

:27:10. > :27:15.settlement before we take action? Again, my answer is, no, we can't.

:27:16. > :27:26.On the Again, my answer is, no, we can't.

:27:27. > :27:30.have a comprehensive plan to prevent Again, my answer is, no, we can't.

:27:31. > :27:33.and foil plots at home and also to address the poisonous extremist

:27:34. > :27:38.ideology that is the root cause of the threat that we face, our support

:27:39. > :27:45.for the diplomatic and political process. That is the second point,

:27:46. > :27:49.many cross this house said how vital it is to have all of the key

:27:50. > :27:54.regional players around the table, including Iran and Russia. We are

:27:55. > :28:00.now seeing Iran and Saudi Arabia sitting down around the same table

:28:01. > :28:04.with America and Russia, as well as France, Turkey and Britain. All of

:28:05. > :28:09.us working towards the transition to a new Government in Syria. The third

:28:10. > :28:15.pillar of the military action I am describing to degrade Isil and

:28:16. > :28:19.reduce the threat they pose. It is working in Iraq and I believe it can

:28:20. > :28:23.work in Syria. The fourth pillar is immediate humanitarian support, but

:28:24. > :28:28.even more crucially, longer term stabilisation. Of course this house

:28:29. > :28:34.has heard many times that Britain has so far given over ?1.1 billion,

:28:35. > :28:38.by far the largest commitment of any European country, second only to the

:28:39. > :28:42.USA, this is helping to reduce the need for Syrians to attempt the

:28:43. > :28:47.perilous journey to Europe. The donor conference I am posting in

:28:48. > :28:52.February, I believe that will help further. The house is rightly also

:28:53. > :28:59.asking more questions about whether there will be a proper post-conflict

:29:00. > :29:02.reconstruction effort to support a new Syrian Government when it

:29:03. > :29:07.emerges. Britain's answer is absolutely, yes. I can tell the

:29:08. > :29:12.house that Britain will be prepared to contribute at least another ?1

:29:13. > :29:16.billion for this task. All these elements, counterterrorism,

:29:17. > :29:19.political and diplomatic, monetary and humanitarian, they need to

:29:20. > :29:25.happen together to achieve a long-term solution in Syria. We know

:29:26. > :29:29.that peace is a process, not an event. It is clear that it cannot be

:29:30. > :29:34.achieved through a military assault on Raqqa alone, it also requires the

:29:35. > :29:39.removal of President Assad through a political transition, but I am also

:29:40. > :29:47.clear of the sequencing. This is an Isil first strategy. What of the end

:29:48. > :29:52.goal? The initial objective is to damage Isil and reduce its capacity

:29:53. > :29:56.to do us harm. I believe this can in time lead to its eradication. No one

:29:57. > :30:01.predicted their rise, we should not accept that it is somehow impossible

:30:02. > :30:04.to bring them to an end. They are not what the people of Iraq and

:30:05. > :30:08.Syria want, they do not represent the true religion of Islam, they are

:30:09. > :30:16.losing ground in Iraq following losses will stop we are not naive to

:30:17. > :30:19.the complicity of the task. It will require patience and persistence.

:30:20. > :30:24.Our work will not be complete until we have reached our true end goal,

:30:25. > :30:28.having governments in both Iraq and Syria which can command the

:30:29. > :30:34.confidence of all their peoples. In Syria, that means a Government

:30:35. > :30:37.without President Assad. As Ban Ki-Moon has said, a missile can kill

:30:38. > :30:39.a terrorist, but only good governance can kill terrorism. This

:30:40. > :30:57.applies to both Iraq and Syria. Terrible mistakes were made in the

:30:58. > :30:59.aftermath of the Iraq war, in dismantling the state and the

:31:00. > :31:03.institutions of that country, and we must never make those mistakes

:31:04. > :31:06.again. The political process in Syria will deliver new leadership

:31:07. > :31:11.and that is the transition we must support. We are not in the business

:31:12. > :31:16.of dismantling the Syrian state or its institutions, and in Libya the

:31:17. > :31:20.state and its institutions have been hollowed out after 40 years of

:31:21. > :31:25.dictatorship. When the dictatorship when, the institutions collapsed,

:31:26. > :31:29.but the big difference between Libya and Syria, in Syria this time we

:31:30. > :31:33.have firm international commitment from all the backers of a future

:31:34. > :31:37.Syrian government, around the table at the Vienna talks, and the

:31:38. > :31:41.commitment is clear, to preserve and develop the state in Syria and allow

:31:42. > :31:47.a new representative government to govern for everyone. Mr Speaker, I

:31:48. > :31:54.have attempted to answer the main question is, why, why now, why us,

:31:55. > :31:58.is it legal, what are the ground forces, is there a strategy, what is

:31:59. > :32:03.the end point, and what is the plan for reconstruction? I know this is a

:32:04. > :32:06.very complex situation and I know members on all sides will have other

:32:07. > :32:11.questions which I look forward to trying to answer this morning. One

:32:12. > :32:15.will be about the confused and confusing situation in Syria

:32:16. > :32:19.regarding Russia's intervention, and let me reassure the house, the

:32:20. > :32:21.American led combined air operations Centre has a memorandum of

:32:22. > :32:27.understanding with the Russians, this enables daily contact and

:32:28. > :32:29.pragmatic military planning to make sure that all coalition forces are

:32:30. > :32:35.safe and this would include our brave RAF pilots. Another question

:32:36. > :32:41.will be about whether we are taking sides in a Sunni versus Shia

:32:42. > :32:48.conflict, this is not the case. Isil is a predominant Lee's Sunni

:32:49. > :32:54.organisation, but they are killing Sunni and Shia people like --

:32:55. > :32:56.predominantly. Our vision is one government in all the interests of

:32:57. > :33:03.the people, and we welcome the presence of states with both Sunni

:33:04. > :33:05.and Shia people, and their support for international action, against

:33:06. > :33:11.City, and towards a diplomatic solution in Syria. -- against Isil.

:33:12. > :33:18.Regarding the financing of Isil, the document sets it out, it mentions

:33:19. > :33:24.ceiling borders, and enforcing sanctions to stop people trading

:33:25. > :33:27.with City, but they are able to generate income through control of

:33:28. > :33:32.territory -- people trading with Isil. We will try to squeeze their

:33:33. > :33:35.finances wherever we can, but it is the rolling back of their territory

:33:36. > :33:42.which will cut off their finances. The complex questions, two of the

:33:43. > :33:47.most, are these, first, will acting against Isil actually help to bring

:33:48. > :33:50.about transition? I believe the answer is yes, not least because

:33:51. > :33:54.there can't be genuine transition without maintaining the territorial

:33:55. > :33:59.integrity of Syria, and Isil completely deny their current action

:34:00. > :34:04.this integrity. Destroying Isil destroys the moderate forces and

:34:05. > :34:10.they will be crucial to the future of Syria, second, our view is that

:34:11. > :34:14.Assad must go, and help in the fight against Isil, or as some have

:34:15. > :34:19.claimed, does this confuse the picture? The expert advice is clear,

:34:20. > :34:28.we will not beat Isil if we waver in our view that Assad must go. We

:34:29. > :34:32.cannot get Sunni opinion if we were to suddenly change our position, and

:34:33. > :34:38.in the end it comes back to this one main question. Should we take

:34:39. > :34:43.action? Or those that say that we need a diplomatic solution, and a

:34:44. > :34:48.transition to a new government in Syria, they are right -- all those.

:34:49. > :34:51.Working with a new representative government is the way to eradicate

:34:52. > :34:55.Isil in Syria in the long term, but can we wait for that to happen

:34:56. > :35:01.before we take military action? I say we can't. Let me be clear, there

:35:02. > :35:06.will not be a vote in this house unless there is a clear majority for

:35:07. > :35:12.action, because we will not hand a publicity coup to Isil. I'm also

:35:13. > :35:15.clear that any motion we bring before this House will explicitly

:35:16. > :35:20.recognise that military action is not the whole answer. Proud as I am

:35:21. > :35:26.of our incredible services, I will not pretend or overstate the

:35:27. > :35:28.significance of our potential contribution, and I will not

:35:29. > :35:35.understate the complexity of this issue. Nor the risks that are

:35:36. > :35:40.inevitably involved in any military action, but we do face a fundamental

:35:41. > :35:43.threat to our security. We cannot wait for a political transition, we

:35:44. > :35:47.have got to hit these terrorists in their heartlands right now. And we

:35:48. > :35:53.must not shirk our responsibility for security or hand it to others.

:35:54. > :35:58.Throughout our history, the United Kingdom has stood up to defend our

:35:59. > :36:05.values and our way of life, and we can and we must do so again. And I

:36:06. > :36:12.commend this statement to the House. Mr Jeremy Corbyn. I would like to

:36:13. > :36:15.thank the Prime Minister for providing in advance copy of his

:36:16. > :36:22.statement, which I got earlier today -- an. After the despicable attacks

:36:23. > :36:25.in Paris a fortnight ago, the whole House will agree that our first

:36:26. > :36:31.priority has to be the security of people in this country in the

:36:32. > :36:35.future. When we consider the Prime Minister's case for military action

:36:36. > :36:37.the issue of whether what he proposes strengthens or undermines

:36:38. > :36:42.our security must be front and centre stage of our minds. There's

:36:43. > :36:46.no doubt that the so-called Islamic State group has imposed a reign

:36:47. > :36:52.terror and millions in Iraq, Syria, and now in Libya. -- on millions.

:36:53. > :36:57.Everything they stand for his country to everything -- everything

:36:58. > :37:02.they stand for is contrary to everything we have fought for. The

:37:03. > :37:06.question is now whether extending the UK bombing from Iraq to Syria is

:37:07. > :37:12.likely to reduce or increase that threat. And whether it will counter

:37:13. > :37:16.or spread the terror campaign Isil is waging in the Middle East. With

:37:17. > :37:21.that in mind, I would like to put seven questions to the Prime

:37:22. > :37:24.Minister. First, does the Prime Minister believed that extending air

:37:25. > :37:27.strikes to Syria, which is already being bombed by the United States,

:37:28. > :37:32.France and Russia and other powers, will make a significant military

:37:33. > :37:37.impact on the ground, which are so far seen City as lose territory?

:37:38. > :37:48.Does he expect it will be a war winning strategy -- Isil win as well

:37:49. > :37:52.as lose territory? Some other states have halted that the dissipation,

:37:53. > :37:56.like Canada. Is it the view of the Prime Minister, that the campaign

:37:57. > :37:58.against Isil held areas can be successful without ground forces? If

:37:59. > :38:03.not, does he successful without ground forces? If

:38:04. > :38:07.Kurdish forces or the relatively marginal Free Syrian Army would be

:38:08. > :38:07.Kurdish forces or the relatively in itching to back-up Isil held

:38:08. > :38:16.territory to in itching to back-up Isil held

:38:17. > :38:21.the campaign was successful question mark is it more likely that the

:38:22. > :38:25.jihadist forces would take over. Third, without credible or

:38:26. > :38:29.acceptable ground forces, isn't the logic of an intensified air campaign

:38:30. > :38:34.mission creep and western boots on the ground? Can he rule out the

:38:35. > :38:40.deployment of British ground forces to Syria? Fourth, does the Prime

:38:41. > :38:46.Minister believed that the United Nations security resolution, two to

:38:47. > :38:52.49, gives clear and unambiguous authorisation for UK air strikes?

:38:53. > :38:57.What co-ordinated action with other United Nations member states has

:38:58. > :39:04.there been under the terms of the resolution, to cut off funding, oil

:39:05. > :39:11.revenues, and arms supplies from Isil into the territory it currently

:39:12. > :39:15.holds? In the absence of any co-ordinated UN strategy, does he

:39:16. > :39:19.believe that more monetary force in Syria could increase the risks of

:39:20. > :39:25.dangerous incidents such as the shooting down of a Russian aircraft

:39:26. > :39:31.by Turkish forces this week? -- military force. There, how does the

:39:32. > :39:33.prime is to think the extension of UK bombing would contribute to a

:39:34. > :39:38.comprehensive political settlement of the Syrian Civil War which is

:39:39. > :39:43.widely believed to be the only way to make sure the defeat of Isil in

:39:44. > :39:47.the country? The Vienna conference was a good step forward last

:39:48. > :39:51.weekend, but it has some way to go. What assessment has the Prime

:39:52. > :39:55.Minister being given about the likely impact of British air strikes

:39:56. > :40:01.in Syria and the threat of terrorist attacks in Britain? -- on the

:40:02. > :40:07.threat. What impact does he believe an intensified air campaign will

:40:08. > :40:12.have on civilian casualties in the ice is held territory and the wider

:40:13. > :40:15.Syria refugee crisis which is so enormous and so appalling? -- Isis

:40:16. > :40:20.held. In the light enormous and so appalling? -- Isis

:40:21. > :40:25.military intervention from the West in recent years, including

:40:26. > :40:26.military intervention from the West Prime Minister accept that UK

:40:27. > :40:31.bombing of Syria could Prime Minister accept that UK

:40:32. > :40:35.what President Obama calls unintended consequences? And the

:40:36. > :40:39.lasting defeat of Isil can unintended consequences? And the

:40:40. > :40:47.secured by Syrians and their forces within the region. Can I thank

:40:48. > :40:50.right honourable gentleman for his questions and let me say, I very

:40:51. > :40:53.right honourable gentleman for his much respect his

:40:54. > :40:57.right honourable gentleman for his about these issues and his quite

:40:58. > :41:00.correct caution before committing to any of these actions, but I do

:41:01. > :41:04.believe there is a good answer any of these actions, but I do

:41:05. > :41:10.the seven absolutely rig questions he has asked. First of all, in terms

:41:11. > :41:13.of extending air strikes, would there be a significant military

:41:14. > :41:14.of extending air strikes, would impact? I try to give a flavour of

:41:15. > :41:18.the things we think we would be able impact? I try to give a flavour of

:41:19. > :41:22.to do, but in many ways it is worth listening to our closest allies, to

:41:23. > :41:27.the Americans and the French, who want us to take part, not just for

:41:28. > :41:30.the cover that provides, but because of the capabilities that we bring,

:41:31. > :41:34.and I think it is worth listening very closely to what they say. My

:41:35. > :41:38.answer, yes, we would make a military difference. Second, he is

:41:39. > :41:44.right to raise the issue of ground forces, and I tried to tackle this

:41:45. > :41:49.in my statement. I would guide the House that there are many who want

:41:50. > :41:53.to play down the existence and the role of the Free Syrian Army, but

:41:54. > :41:58.our information and intelligence is that there are at least 70,000

:41:59. > :41:59.moderate Sunni forces that are able to help, and we can see the help

:42:00. > :42:04.they have been to help, and we can see the help

:42:05. > :42:08.examples I gave it my statement. He asked about boots on the ground, we

:42:09. > :42:11.are not deploying British combat forces and we are not going to

:42:12. > :42:17.deploy combat forces, and we think the presence of western boots on the

:42:18. > :42:21.ground in that way would be counter-productive, that is one of

:42:22. > :42:24.the things we have all collectively across the House learned from

:42:25. > :42:27.previous conflicts, and we don't want to make that mistake again. And

:42:28. > :42:29.we don't want to make that mistake again. And we don't want to make

:42:30. > :42:33.that mistake again. Whether the England resolution is unambiguous, I

:42:34. > :42:37.believe it is, the language is very clear and that is why I quoted it in

:42:38. > :42:43.some detail -- whether the UN resolution. He mentioned the

:42:44. > :42:46.sanctions and embargoes and squeezing the finances of Isil,

:42:47. > :42:49.there was a resolution in January and we will continue to support

:42:50. > :42:54.those measures. He asked about dangerous incidents and the

:42:55. > :42:58.potential for those, and as I explained, there is a beacon

:42:59. > :43:03.friction between what Russia is doing and what the coalition is

:43:04. > :43:07.doing. Obviously, what happened in Turkey, we have got to get to the

:43:08. > :43:12.bottom of that, but we have permission to overfly Turkish

:43:13. > :43:17.airspace and Turkey is our ally in this conflict. He asked a crucial

:43:18. > :43:20.question about whether what we are planning will help with transition,

:43:21. > :43:29.and I think the answer is a very strong yes. The existence of Isil or

:43:30. > :43:32.Da'ish, with their so-called caliphate, is to deny the

:43:33. > :43:36.territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria, so we cannot have a future

:43:37. > :43:40.Syria with the existence of this caliphate taking over such a large

:43:41. > :43:43.amount of its territory, and I'd also say that when we look to the

:43:44. > :43:47.future Syria, it will need the involvement of moderate Sunni people

:43:48. > :43:53.in the future of the country, and the more we can help them, the

:43:54. > :43:57.better the chance of transition is. He asked the important question

:43:58. > :44:00.about the impact of action and the threat level to this country, and

:44:01. > :44:04.that is why I quoted and I had their permission to do so, I cleared my

:44:05. > :44:08.statement with them, the chairman of the joint intelligence committee and

:44:09. > :44:12.the head of MI5, their view is that we are already at the very highest

:44:13. > :44:19.level we could be in service of threats from Isil. -- we could be in

:44:20. > :44:23.terms of. This is about learning the lessons of Iraq, we have this

:44:24. > :44:26.architecture of a joint intelligence committee chaired by a senior

:44:27. > :44:32.official who has the independent view and I cleared every word of my

:44:33. > :44:36.statement with them. On the issue of civilian casualties, which is

:44:37. > :44:39.important, I believe the truth of the matter is this, the British

:44:40. > :44:44.capabilities are one of the best ways to reduce civilian casualties,

:44:45. > :44:48.and in a year and three months of the action we have taken in Iraq,

:44:49. > :44:51.there have been no reports of civilian casualties and we believe

:44:52. > :44:57.we have some of the most accurate weapons known to man. Extending our

:44:58. > :45:09.activities into Syria is likely to riches civilian -- reduce civilian

:45:10. > :45:12.caddies. Finally he asked about unintended consequences, we can have

:45:13. > :45:15.a debate about the action we have taken around the world in recent

:45:16. > :45:21.years, but in my view we have got to recognise that this poisonous

:45:22. > :45:22.narrative of Islamist extremism is a battle for