:00:29. > :00:35.The afternoon. It is election day, plus one. Welcome to the BBC's
:00:35. > :00:38.election Centre, where we are monitoring the results of 35 cars or
:00:38. > :00:41.contests, a Parliamentary by-election, two mayoral battles,
:00:42. > :00:45.voting yesterday, lots of the results today, the biggest electoral
:00:45. > :00:49.test of the year, and there are high stakes for all of the parties and
:00:49. > :00:55.their leaders, with just two years before the general election. Let's
:00:55. > :00:59.talk about Nigel Farage. He is celebrating this morning. He says it
:01:00. > :01:04.has been a remarkable night for his party, as UKIP's performance
:01:04. > :01:08.exceeded all predictions. He has already gained more than 40
:01:09. > :01:13.councillors, including 16 in Lincolnshire. He says it marks a sea
:01:13. > :01:18.change in British politics. We shall see. So far for David Cameron, there
:01:18. > :01:21.has been a loss of dozens of council seats for the Conservatives. Seats
:01:21. > :01:25.in Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire have passed from the Conservatives
:01:25. > :01:33.to no overall control. Labour and UKIP have made some gains in these
:01:33. > :01:35.areas. But that has been some good news for the Tories in Essex and
:01:35. > :01:39.Dorset. And Labour? They held onto the Parliamentary seat in South
:01:39. > :01:43.Shields, that was the by-election caused by the resignation of David
:01:43. > :01:48.Miliband. It has been Labour since the 1930s, very safe seat, but the
:01:48. > :01:52.majority was reduced by nearly 5000 votes, did -- although they did
:01:52. > :01:55.maintain their share of the vote. The Lib Dems finished seventh in
:01:55. > :02:02.South Shields and lost their deposit, so not the best of
:02:02. > :02:07.outcomes, but they made gains elsewhere in the local authorities.
:02:07. > :02:13.As I was saying, we have had a few result in. Eight local authorities
:02:13. > :02:17.have declared. But 27 to go. Those who have declared stayed up late
:02:17. > :02:24.overnight, work hard and got the results in. Lots of counting is
:02:24. > :02:29.going on this morning and into the afternoon. This is Norfolk. We were
:02:29. > :02:36.talking to one of our correspondence earlier about the surge that the
:02:36. > :02:40.Greens have experienced in some areas of the East of England. But it
:02:40. > :02:46.has been a strong conservative area for many years. The latest from
:02:46. > :02:50.Norfolk is coming up soon. We will also be in Northumberland again.
:02:50. > :02:58.Some of the depth orations are being made but we will be looking at the
:02:58. > :03:03.outcome in Northumberland between one o'clock and two o'clock, when it
:03:03. > :03:11.is a little more final. There have been a lot of boundary changes
:03:11. > :03:15.there, so it is difficult to make a comparison. And then why don't we
:03:15. > :03:22.also look at the one local authority outside England that is counting
:03:22. > :03:25.today, Anglesey. Special circumstances here, where the local
:03:25. > :03:32.authority was put into special measures by the Welsh government
:03:32. > :03:37.because of a decade or more of political infighting and a bit of
:03:37. > :03:42.deadlock. A bit of a scandal in terms of Anglesey's local government
:03:42. > :03:46.track record. That election was meant to have happened last year,
:03:46. > :03:52.but is happening this year. It is the one Welsh local authority that
:03:52. > :03:55.is being contested. Monster come, so stay with us. First, an update on
:03:55. > :03:59.the news. The Conservatives say people who vote for the UK
:03:59. > :04:06.Independence Party, which is enjoying unprecedented local
:04:06. > :04:09.election success, must be listened UKIP has taken more than 40 seats so
:04:09. > :04:12.far and pushed the Conservatives into third place in the South
:04:12. > :04:16.Shields Parliamentary by-election. UKIP's leader Nigel Farage is
:04:16. > :04:24.claiming a sea change in British politics. Around two dozen councils
:04:24. > :04:29.have yet to return results. They don't have any MPs, they don't
:04:29. > :04:33.run any councils. But this is a big moment for UKIP. So far, they have
:04:33. > :04:42.won around one in every four votes cast, making them impossible to
:04:42. > :04:46.ignore. So the champagne has flowed for the party in what is described
:04:46. > :04:49.by the prime minister as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists.
:04:49. > :04:53.have been abused by the entire establishment, and now they are
:04:53. > :04:58.shocked and stunned that we are getting over 25% of the vote
:04:58. > :05:01.everywhere across the country. This is a sea change in British politics.
:05:01. > :05:06.Labour did hold the one Parliamentary seat up for election,
:05:06. > :05:10.a seat they have held for generations, South Shields. Labour
:05:10. > :05:14.also won on both Tyneside, whereas candidate for mayor beat the
:05:14. > :05:18.Conservatives, but both of these victories were must wins. Overall,
:05:18. > :05:23.the party's performance has been mixed. Some who have not voted
:05:23. > :05:27.before have come out and voted UKIP, but it is a party of protest, not a
:05:27. > :05:29.party of government. The Conservatives lost control of
:05:29. > :05:35.Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire because of UKIP's games, posing
:05:35. > :05:44.questions for the Tory leadership. We hear you, we understand that
:05:44. > :05:49.people want to see change. They are impatient. We appreciate that people
:05:49. > :05:53.are anxious to see problems fixed in this country. The Liberal Democrats
:05:53. > :05:57.insist that they are encouraged by how they have performed in areas
:05:57. > :06:00.where they have MPs, but in the South Shields by-election, they
:06:00. > :06:04.finished seventh, only narrowly beating the monster raving loony
:06:04. > :06:10.party. All over the country, people have been arguing for Liberal
:06:10. > :06:15.Democrat policies against the Tories', and in many cases like in
:06:15. > :06:21.Gloucestershire, where we have gained seats, showing that we are
:06:21. > :06:26.not complacent. As small as UKIP still remains, it is a breakthrough
:06:26. > :06:30.for them. There are still eight tussle to come for Labour and the
:06:30. > :06:34.Conservatives in counties like Staffordshire, just as important in
:06:34. > :06:39.gauging the relative appeal of the two biggest parties in Westminster.
:06:39. > :06:42.In other news, the jury in the trial of Mark Bridger, accused of
:06:42. > :06:47.murdering five-year-old April Jones, has been shown CCTV footage
:06:47. > :06:51.of his movements around the time she disappeared. Mr Bridger is shown
:06:51. > :06:56.buying alcohol in a Spar store and his Land Rover is seen outside his
:06:56. > :06:59.home and being driven locally. He denies murdering April last October.
:06:59. > :07:03.The Royal Bank of Scotland returned to profit in the first quarter of
:07:03. > :07:08.the year. The bank, more than 80% owned by the
:07:08. > :07:14.taxpayer, made a pre-tax profit of �826 million, compared to a �1.5
:07:14. > :07:17.billion loss in the same period last year. The RBS chairman says the bank
:07:17. > :07:21.should be ready for a return to the private sector by the middle of next
:07:21. > :07:24.year. A security man who worked for the
:07:24. > :07:27.former News International Chief Executive Rebekah Brooks is being
:07:27. > :07:33.charged with conspiracy to pervert the course of justice. David Johnson
:07:33. > :07:37.is accused of concealing a computer and other items and will appear
:07:37. > :07:39.before Westminster magistrates next Wednesday. The charge comes as
:07:39. > :07:45.Scotland Yard continues its investigations into phone hacking
:07:45. > :07:55.and payments to public officials. Now back to that at Westminster for
:07:55. > :08:00.
:08:00. > :08:05.the latest on the local election Welcome back to the BBC's election
:08:05. > :08:09.studio, where we are expecting a flood of results in the next couple
:08:09. > :08:16.of hours. We are a quarter of the way through, eight councils
:08:16. > :08:19.declared, 27 to go. Time for me to introduce the panel here. Grant
:08:19. > :08:23.Shapps, Conservative Party chairman, Sadek Khan for Labour and the
:08:23. > :08:31.Business Secretary for the Lib Dems, Vince cable. Nick Robinson is back
:08:32. > :08:38.with me. Nick, where are we? We have sent for the clowns. That is what
:08:38. > :08:42.has happened. The man referred to by Kenneth Clarke as the clowns, UKIP,
:08:42. > :08:45.they are the ones laughing today. It is clear not just in that
:08:45. > :08:51.by-election, where they came second, but got a quarter of the vote, but
:08:51. > :08:55.right across England, where they are getting a quarter of the vote in
:08:55. > :08:58.many places. This is their day. It is not their day in the sense that
:08:59. > :09:03.they are running large parts of England - they are not. They will
:09:03. > :09:07.not run any council at the end of this. They are not even winning huge
:09:07. > :09:11.numbers of council seats. They are way off the sort of total is the
:09:11. > :09:15.Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour have won. But they are
:09:15. > :09:20.dictating the political weather. In party headquarters throughout
:09:20. > :09:30.Westminster, they are thinking, what do we say about Nigel Farage? What
:09:30. > :09:52.
:09:52. > :09:55.do we do about him? They are trying to comfort themselves. The
:09:55. > :09:57.Conservatives are saying, this is not a great, but maybe it is not
:09:57. > :10:00.good enough for Ed Miliband to get to number ten. Ed Miliband's party
:10:00. > :10:03.are saying it is bad for the Conservatives. And the Lib Dems are
:10:03. > :10:06.saying, at least we are hanging onto some seats. The honest answer is
:10:06. > :10:08.that we don't know whether this is a 1-off, massive protest vote to UKIP,
:10:08. > :10:11.or the beginning of a new political force, putting down roots in local
:10:11. > :10:13.communities throughout England which will then go on and win. The fact
:10:13. > :10:15.that we don't know makes it more interesting. Indeed it does. The
:10:15. > :10:18.tone was set in South Shields with the Parliamentary by-election. It is
:10:18. > :10:22.worth having a quick look at the figures. They were quite startling
:10:22. > :10:26.in some ways. We can see that UKIP surged into second place in a very
:10:26. > :10:36.safe Labour seat. Labour maintained their share of the vote at around
:10:36. > :10:37.
:10:37. > :10:41.50%. David Miliband's share was a couple of points above that. You
:10:41. > :10:46.kept came second from a standing start. They were not even in the
:10:46. > :10:56.contest last time. Before Vince Cable has a go at me, the Lib Dems
:10:56. > :10:56.
:10:56. > :11:03.did so badly that they are in with the others at 1.4%. Are people right
:11:03. > :11:08.to say, Nigel Farage said they are not just talking about local issues
:11:08. > :11:14.here, but that result in South Shields tells you that they will
:11:14. > :11:19.begin changes in 2015? I don't think it proves that. It does prove what
:11:19. > :11:25.UKIP are saying, which is that this is no longer a few disgruntled Tory
:11:25. > :11:28.voters swapping to another party. Clearly, UKIP can amass huge numbers
:11:28. > :11:34.of votes with almost no organisation, even in Labour
:11:34. > :11:38.strongholds, even in the north of England. It tells you that yes, this
:11:38. > :11:42.is a national reaction. But to me, it seems to say that there is a
:11:42. > :11:45.large portion of the British electorate, about a quarter,
:11:45. > :11:49.certainly in England, who are looking for the person who will kick
:11:49. > :11:54.the establishment hardest. And at the moment, they have alighted on
:11:54. > :11:58.Nigel Farage. Curious - public schoolboy, son of a stockbroker,
:11:58. > :12:02.from Kent, member of the East India club. Not a natural
:12:02. > :12:06.antiestablishment figure in many ways, but he has become that figure.
:12:06. > :12:14.We have seen that sort of figure throughout Western Europe since the
:12:14. > :12:18.banking crisis of 2008, and it is a question whether he can now get down
:12:18. > :12:23.and make himself an electoral force in Westminster elections. He
:12:23. > :12:28.certainly can in Europe. But can he do it in Westminster? And if he
:12:28. > :12:32.does, how do these established parties react? One last thought -
:12:32. > :12:39.how they react will shape the future of the coalition government, because
:12:39. > :12:44.if the Conservative Party emphasises core messages like immigration etc,
:12:44. > :12:49.you will increasingly see the Liberal Democrat side of the
:12:49. > :12:54.coalition say, hold on, this is not the coalition we signed up to.
:12:54. > :12:59.will ask the panel for their views on that in a second. Before then,
:12:59. > :13:05.let's remind ourselves of where we are.
:13:05. > :13:10.Let me take you through the results we have had so far. The majority of
:13:10. > :13:15.these results have been in Tory heartlands, so don't be surprised to
:13:16. > :13:24.see the Conservatives at the top. The Lib Dems are often in second
:13:24. > :13:30.place on the councils themselves. Interestingly, Labour have made the
:13:30. > :13:39.same number of games that UKIP made from a standing start. The Green
:13:39. > :13:44.party, not a lot of movement. This is what that means in terms of the
:13:44. > :13:53.councils themselves. Here is where it gets more interesting. The
:13:53. > :13:57.Conservatives have lost two, which go into no overall control.
:13:57. > :14:02.Lincolnshire, a very Tory part of the world, although you could say
:14:02. > :14:06.quite a Euro-sceptic part, too, if I show you what has happened here
:14:06. > :14:16.today, the Conservatives have lost overall control. They remain the
:14:16. > :14:18.
:14:18. > :14:25.largest party, but look at this insurgence of UKIP. If I show you
:14:25. > :14:29.overnight what happened, you get the picture. Labour lost 15 councillors
:14:29. > :14:33.here last time round. They have not made them all back. We don't know
:14:33. > :14:37.whether the UKIP vote has cut into the labour vote as well as the
:14:37. > :14:40.Conservative vote at this stage, but we do know that the Conservatives
:14:40. > :14:45.were not expecting to lose Lincolnshire. Let me show you
:14:45. > :14:55.Gloucestershire, which was a bit more safe in Conservative terms. The
:14:55. > :14:55.
:14:55. > :15:01.Conservatives have lost control. Overnight, there were gains here for
:15:01. > :15:06.the Lib Dems and Labour and for the first time in Gloucestershire for
:15:06. > :15:14.UKIP, the Conservatives taking the big hit here. One other comparison
:15:14. > :15:17.tells an interesting story. In each of these three places, when we do it
:15:17. > :15:23.as a share of the vote throughout the Council, UKIP is coming in
:15:23. > :15:30.second place. Away behind the Conservatives in Dorset, but second
:15:30. > :15:36.place here, second in Hampshire, second in Essex. This is where it
:15:36. > :15:40.gets interesting. UKIP, Labour and the Lib Dems are all on nine seats
:15:40. > :15:50.here, a come at a grizzled for what now looks to be equal second place
:15:50. > :15:53.here. Remember is to? UKIP came second to the Lib Dems here. Many of
:15:53. > :16:03.the seats here are in that Eastleigh constituency, so they have started
:16:03. > :16:03.
:16:03. > :16:07.to make gains. And one more which is quite interesting. Before -- because
:16:07. > :16:13.we have a first past the post system, this does not equal out when
:16:13. > :16:20.you look at the seats. UKIP got just one seat, but 22% of the share,
:16:20. > :16:23.putting them nominally in second place.
:16:23. > :16:27.Important developments in Derbyshire, certainly, that is a key
:16:27. > :16:34.battleground, so I am going to go there next and speak to Matthew. He
:16:34. > :16:38.will give us the latest. Labour have just taken Derbyshire, 64
:16:38. > :16:42.councillors, the magic number was 33 and they have just hit that in the
:16:42. > :16:45.last few minutes. So the Conservatives taking Derbyshire in
:16:45. > :16:51.2009, Labour have just taken it back. With me is the transport
:16:51. > :16:54.secretary, Patrick MacLachlan, thanks to being with me on a
:16:54. > :16:58.difficult night for the Conservatives. It was a difficult
:16:58. > :17:02.day, we won this county council four years ago and we had controlled it
:17:02. > :17:08.for 28 years before that, this was Labour 's number one target, so not
:17:08. > :17:13.a great surprise. Has the political landscape changed version strong
:17:13. > :17:18.showings for UKIP as well, no seats won, but strong showing. Has the
:17:19. > :17:23.landscaped changed and is it a danger for the Tories -- landscape?
:17:23. > :17:27.Like any elections, you take note of the results. We are in very
:17:27. > :17:31.difficult economic circumstances and it is not surprising that people
:17:31. > :17:35.want to see changes and results but what is not lost on me, as a member
:17:35. > :17:38.of the government, it is not lost on the rest of the government. Grant
:17:38. > :17:42.Schapps were saying you have got the message and went on quickly to say
:17:42. > :17:47.what they need to do is accelerate the strategy. Is that getting the
:17:47. > :17:50.message or ignoring the message? think it is getting the message, it
:17:50. > :17:54.is showing people what we are doing as far as welfare is concerned, as
:17:54. > :17:57.far as the economy is concerned and cutting immigration. You haven't
:17:57. > :18:01.taken time to look at what the voters have said and actually
:18:01. > :18:07.digestive before you have said you know what they are saying --
:18:07. > :18:12.digestive net. We have listened to the voters. Why did you not a dust
:18:12. > :18:15.-- are just your strategy question mark you can't do it overnight, we
:18:15. > :18:18.will take note of the elections, but we are addressing very difficult
:18:18. > :18:23.issues. Nobody likes reforming the welfare system but it is essential
:18:23. > :18:29.that we do it. How do you go forward? In a sense, you have three
:18:29. > :18:33.ways to look you shift to the right, how do you take on Labour and how do
:18:33. > :18:38.you keep the Liberal Democrat vote? We lost one seat here to the Labour
:18:38. > :18:44.Party. We show we are listening, we carry on as we are as reforming the
:18:44. > :18:49.welfare system is. So no change? Of course we will listen and take note,
:18:49. > :18:53.but it is also seeing that change coming into operation. A lot of the
:18:53. > :18:57.changes we are being asked our legislation we have been pursuing
:18:57. > :19:03.over the last two years and are now coming to fruition. Thank you for
:19:03. > :19:07.your time. Matthew, thank you for that with that news from Derbyshire
:19:07. > :19:11.which is that, all though the full figures are not in, but his
:19:12. > :19:14.information is that Labour have actually taken control of
:19:14. > :19:21.Derbyshire. City can't, you are already smiling. It is great news
:19:21. > :19:28.will stop it bodes well for the general election that it is great
:19:28. > :19:33.news. We lost badly four years ago. We need members and we need members
:19:33. > :19:36.to be active, willing to stand for council and canvassing, and when you
:19:36. > :19:42.become a counsellor, you need to be proactive and win Parliamentary
:19:42. > :19:46.seats. We lost extremely badly in 2009, we got hammered. We got
:19:46. > :19:51.hammered again in 2010, losing thousands of members over those two
:19:51. > :19:55.years and to bounce back in one term is fantastic and I congratulate all
:19:55. > :19:59.of the councillors, the activist, the members, the supporters and the
:19:59. > :20:06.voters for having the trust, in just three years, to vote Labour again,
:20:06. > :20:14.when they deserted at in droves, I am very pleased. Grant Schapps?
:20:14. > :20:19.First of all, I think it was an overall control Council. It was a
:20:19. > :20:26.hung council, yes. That is because there was a defection from the
:20:26. > :20:31.Tories to UKIP and we treated like it was going into the elections.
:20:31. > :20:40.Anyhow, this was the seat that all experts agreed Labour would
:20:40. > :20:44.definitely win. This is what you have the nickname you have, give
:20:44. > :20:48.credit where it is due. We bounced back after one term. Let me
:20:48. > :20:54.respond, from overall control, I'm trying to make the point, not hugely
:20:54. > :20:57.political, but just saying that John Kirchner said this was one of the
:20:57. > :21:00.counties Labour was absolutely certain to win and that was a fact,
:21:00. > :21:06.and congratulations, you have won it, but that doesn't make the kind
:21:06. > :21:10.of progress that Ed Miliband would be wanting to make it he was on the
:21:10. > :21:16.road to number ten. That is the fundamental question of today. This
:21:16. > :21:20.is not a surprising result. Vince Cable, how do you see things?
:21:20. > :21:25.our point of view, there are two stories. One was the by-election was
:21:25. > :21:29.absolutely dreadful, and a similarly awful result in Rotherham and the
:21:29. > :21:36.by-election a few weeks later in Eastleigh, we won, that is the story
:21:36. > :21:40.of government. In local government, the recent history we have been
:21:40. > :21:45.given is a pen picture of what happens everywhere, you can get
:21:45. > :21:50.hammered locally and people doing great work in local councils are not
:21:50. > :21:53.rewarded, but in opposition you tend to recover. It is disappointing but
:21:53. > :21:56.that is the story, we are in government and in the past, we would
:21:56. > :22:01.have taken some of those opposition protest vote and we have not because
:22:01. > :22:05.we are in government, but where we have been head-to-head with the
:22:05. > :22:10.Tories in Parliamentary seats where we hold, we have gained ground,
:22:10. > :22:13.places like Cheltenham, Eastbourne, Dorset, so given that the next
:22:13. > :22:18.general election, we will be holding our Parliamentary seats, it is
:22:18. > :22:23.encouraging. Are you surprised in any way by the views of some of our
:22:23. > :22:28.experts earlier, saying that people expect UKIP to be taking most of
:22:28. > :22:32.their votes from Conservative supporters, but actually Labour and
:22:32. > :22:41.the Lib Dems are also affected by this search in support? I have taken
:22:41. > :22:45.this, but we have to take the UKIP phenomenon seriously. Nick
:22:45. > :22:49.Robinson's analysis was spot on, we don't know if it is temporarily or
:22:49. > :22:52.permanent and we have to think about how we deal with it. There is a
:22:52. > :22:57.general protest but it is added to the fact that we are in a major
:22:57. > :23:01.economic crisis. It is a bit like the phenomenon you have seen in
:23:01. > :23:07.Italy, a new party coming from nowhere, not apparently standing for
:23:07. > :23:12.much with a sense of humour, not nasty fascists, but very much the
:23:12. > :23:20.populist right. My view is that we have to respect the fact that a
:23:20. > :23:28.quarter of the electorate voted the UKIP. The policies are very vague
:23:28. > :23:31.and that is a challenge for us. When it becomes there is -- apparent
:23:32. > :23:35.there is not much behind it, we have to deal with it. That is the
:23:35. > :23:39.question, what does engaging with them really mean? We already know
:23:39. > :23:44.what the Conservatives think it means because the priming is to try
:23:44. > :23:51.to pre-emptively deal with the UKIP threat, that is why in part we saw a
:23:51. > :23:54.speech on a possible referendum on EU membership. Last week he said
:23:54. > :23:58.Parliament needs to have a vote on that in the next few months before
:23:58. > :24:02.the general election. That is why we had, I suspect, a rather tougher
:24:02. > :24:07.message on things like the prison regime, immigration, and we will see
:24:07. > :24:14.that next week when we get the Queens speech, and we are not quite
:24:14. > :24:17.clear about how the other parties will react to this new threat.
:24:17. > :24:23.have been able to write things in their manifesto, I was looking at
:24:23. > :24:27.their transport manifesto and it ten said they were in favour of three
:24:27. > :24:30.high-speed rail lines. They are now campaigning against the one that
:24:30. > :24:39.Parliament has legislated for. Nobody says that is completely at
:24:39. > :24:42.odds with what we saw in your manifesto. Normally, parties have
:24:42. > :24:48.two deal with their manifestoes and a lot more scrutiny, and today's
:24:48. > :24:55.results suggest that is a reasonable expectation for UKIP. We will come
:24:55. > :24:58.back to that, because we hope to speak to you on policy point. I'm
:24:58. > :25:04.going to join Jeremy for some analysis once again. Yes, just
:25:04. > :25:08.really looking at where we are at this point and if we go to the map
:25:08. > :25:09.on the floor, this was the shape of the county councils as we went into
:25:10. > :25:11.the county councils as we went into the elections, the unitary
:25:11. > :25:13.the elections, the unitary authorities, and you can see the
:25:13. > :25:19.the elections, the unitary authorities, and you can This is how
:25:19. > :25:26.they were left pretty much in 2009, and this is what we have got so far.
:25:26. > :25:28.It is flashing where we have got a change. You can see Gloucestershire
:25:28. > :25:32.and Lincolnshire, no overall control. And Derbyshire will
:25:32. > :25:40.control. And Derbyshire will eventually go read. So, where are
:25:40. > :25:44.the parties in terms of their share in key wards? We have around 1400
:25:44. > :25:47.wards we are looking up, we are not even halfway to what we have been,
:25:47. > :25:53.but we can give you some figures. The Conservatives in first place on
:25:53. > :25:58.35%. Air in mind, this is very much Conservative territory, so 35% is
:25:58. > :26:01.where we have them at the moment in key wards. The figure everyone is
:26:01. > :26:07.talking about is this second one, talking about is this second one,
:26:07. > :26:11.UKIP on 22%. Pushing Labour into third on 20%. And the Liberal
:26:11. > :26:16.Democrats are now in fourth on 14%. Again, key wards, this figure will
:26:17. > :26:22.possibly change as the day goes on, it could stabilise, it could stay
:26:22. > :26:28.the same. That is where we are at the moment. B show you, if I can,
:26:28. > :26:32.the change in shares and 2009 and see what has been happening here. We
:26:32. > :26:39.will have a look for the UKIP column and see how much their boat has gone
:26:39. > :26:44.up. The purple column is the key, what has happened? We have got them
:26:44. > :26:49.up by 17% since 2009. You are looking at what were pretty good
:26:49. > :26:52.elections for the Conservatives four years ago, they are now down by 9%,
:26:52. > :26:58.so very much hurting. Their coalition partners, however, are
:26:58. > :27:05.down a touch more, the Liberal Democrats are down by 11%. And also,
:27:05. > :27:12.we see here with Labour, up 7% on 2009 but 2011 was a terrible year
:27:12. > :27:15.for Labour under Gordon Brown, 20% of the vote share, so plus 7% does
:27:15. > :27:21.of the vote share, so plus 7% does not represent any dramatic recovery.
:27:21. > :27:26.So again, all eyes are on this UKIP figure, 17% up in our analysis of
:27:26. > :27:29.the key wards. Thank you very much, and that is very useful, because we
:27:29. > :27:33.want to talk a little more about that UKIP performance in the context
:27:33. > :27:37.of the other parties. And whether progress has been made, because some
:27:37. > :27:42.of the progress has been more spectacular in some areas than
:27:42. > :27:46.others, it has not been a uniform performance. We can go to
:27:46. > :27:52.Doncaster, we can speak to my colleague there, who is also keeping
:27:52. > :27:55.an eye on areas like Lincolnshire. What can you tell us? Here in
:27:55. > :28:00.Doncaster, this is the election that Labour has been pulling out all of
:28:00. > :28:05.the stops to win, it is Ed Miliband's backyard and all of the
:28:05. > :28:08.local MPs are Labour. Two thirds of the councillors are Labour. But
:28:08. > :28:17.English Democrats Peter Davies squeaked in four years ago and is
:28:17. > :28:20.standing again to defend, and we are getting very close to the result of
:28:20. > :28:28.the first preference votes. Here, it may all elections, people get to
:28:28. > :28:31.vote. If nobody has 50% come you go to a run-off of the top two
:28:31. > :28:35.candidates. You can see the first preference votes, it is so close
:28:35. > :28:38.between Labour and Peter Davies, now standing as an independent, that
:28:38. > :28:41.they will go through to the run-off and that is when it gets
:28:41. > :28:46.interesting, because the other eight candidates in this big field, their
:28:46. > :28:50.second preference votes will go to those two candidates. Most of them,
:28:50. > :28:54.frankly, are no friends of labour, so Labour is going to have to be
:28:54. > :29:00.quite a way ahead in that first cant if it has a chance of winning in the
:29:00. > :29:06.second run-off. -- first cant. going to be very tight. We will keep
:29:06. > :29:09.an eye on that but a word before you go, not just about the Maher, but
:29:09. > :29:12.about the interesting results overnight, and Lincolnshire is
:29:12. > :29:20.clearly one of the most interesting results for lots of reasons. What
:29:20. > :29:24.was your take? " Astonishing" was the word that I got from UKIP
:29:24. > :29:28.supporters. I was talking to them just a couple of days ago and they
:29:28. > :29:33.were suggesting they would win four or five. 16 was beyond their wildest
:29:33. > :29:38.dreams. Remember, this is a council that for 20 odd years has been run
:29:38. > :29:40.by the Conservatives. We never thought UKIP would be the
:29:40. > :29:46.second-largest party and not the Conservatives off their, but it is
:29:46. > :29:51.an area that is fertile ground for UKIP because there has been a big
:29:51. > :29:56.influx of agricultural workers from Eastern Europe, and there have been
:29:56. > :30:00.a few demonstrations in the past, not set up by UKIP but by local
:30:00. > :30:04.people who are worried about whether or not there are enough educational
:30:04. > :30:07.and health facilities to cope with it. So, as I say, that was fertile
:30:07. > :30:17.ground for UKIP but maybe even they are surprised at just how successful
:30:17. > :30:18.
:30:18. > :30:24.they have been. Let me stay on the theme of where UKIP has made some
:30:24. > :30:28.games, and in a few minutes, we may be able to talk to UKIP's City of
:30:28. > :30:37.London spokesman. With that in mind, I will talk to my colleague in
:30:37. > :30:43.Taunton about Gloucester. Paul, you are in Gloucester, aren't you?
:30:43. > :30:45.but I can talk to you about Taunton as well. Both the counties of
:30:45. > :30:49.Somerset and Gloucestershire were fruitful for the United Kingdom
:30:49. > :30:54.Independence party last night. We gathered the votes in and counted
:30:54. > :30:56.till the small hours, and the net result was three games to the UK
:30:56. > :31:02.Independence Party in Gloucestershire, three games down
:31:02. > :31:06.the road in Somerset. In Somerset's case, it was not enough to knock the
:31:06. > :31:10.Tories off their perch. They remain the largest party by a whisker, so
:31:10. > :31:16.they keep control in Somerset. In Gloucestershire, it has gone to no
:31:16. > :31:23.overall control. The counsellor is no longer the council leader. He is
:31:23. > :31:27.still the leader of the largest group, but now this council is up
:31:27. > :31:33.for negotiation. The talking starts now. It is not that the other
:31:33. > :31:37.parties did not do reasonably well. Labour went up to nine. And the Lib
:31:37. > :31:42.Dems did better than they have in most other areas. But it was
:31:42. > :31:45.undoubtedly UKIP who have caused a bit of a tremor in the political
:31:45. > :31:52.landscape around here. A short distance from where we are standing
:31:52. > :31:55.in the Forest of Dean, they picked up no less than three seats. They
:31:55. > :32:00.also won a straight race against the Conservatives in a by-election for
:32:00. > :32:03.the district council, so it is all up for grabs now. One other thing
:32:03. > :32:09.which is salient to what politicians here are discussing today dash it
:32:10. > :32:14.was all done on a very low turnout. 31% of people voted in
:32:14. > :32:22.Gloucestershire. The previous lowest level for a county council election
:32:22. > :32:25.he had been 41%. In Cheltenham, it got as low as 19% in a couple of
:32:25. > :32:35.wards. It was not a good day for democracy, but it has been a good
:32:35. > :32:35.
:32:36. > :32:41.day for the UK Independence Party. So now that we have seen the areas
:32:41. > :32:48.where some of those UKIP games have been made, let's talk to UKIP's City
:32:48. > :32:52.of London spokesman. We had Mr Farage in earlier, telling us this
:32:52. > :32:56.was all about sending a message to the three gentlemen sitting next to
:32:56. > :33:01.me and representing their parties, because in his view, they are not
:33:01. > :33:06.listening and UKIP is listening. Is that the secret? Yes, it is. You
:33:06. > :33:09.have seen today, from the result in Lincolnshire, the hard work that our
:33:09. > :33:13.members and those who have won council seats have undertaken over
:33:13. > :33:18.the past two to three years. We have been knocking on doors and listening
:33:18. > :33:21.to the small businessman and the families taking their children to
:33:21. > :33:27.school and asking them, what are their concerns? When they have told
:33:27. > :33:31.us, we have started to put that into our policies and we have created the
:33:32. > :33:36.policies they want to have enacted. Unfortunately, the three political
:33:36. > :33:42.parties are not listening. There were lots of size in the studio when
:33:42. > :33:47.you were talking there. People next to me maybe suggesting that your
:33:47. > :33:53.policies don't stack up. What were you saying earlier, Grant Shapps?
:33:53. > :33:57.was pointing out that now that UKIP have done well, congratulations, by
:33:57. > :34:01.the way, it means the party will be subject to the kind of scrutiny the
:34:01. > :34:05.other parties are. And where you don't have policies that don't stack
:34:05. > :34:08.up, like campaigning against high-speed rail to in some
:34:08. > :34:12.constituencies, but when you go back to their previous manifesto, they
:34:12. > :34:17.were campaigning for three high-speed lines, these are the
:34:17. > :34:23.types of things which will now come under greater scrutiny. Nick, what
:34:23. > :34:27.do you think? For example, an immigration, can you clear up for
:34:27. > :34:30.us, when you say there will be a five-year freeze on permanent
:34:30. > :34:34.settlement, are you saying that no French, Spanish or German people
:34:34. > :34:40.will be able to move to the UK if UKIP had the immigration policy it
:34:40. > :34:45.once and that presumably British people also could not move to Spain,
:34:45. > :34:48.Germany, front and elsewhere? there is a misunderstanding of the
:34:49. > :34:54.five-year freeze. We have said immigration should be controlled
:34:54. > :34:57.both from within the European Union and outside the European Union. With
:34:57. > :35:03.our five-year freeze, we are saying you don't get the rights of
:35:03. > :35:06.residents. Therefore, you don't have automatic access to benefits or free
:35:06. > :35:14.healthcare, for example. We are not here to stop people of talent or
:35:14. > :35:16.skill coming to the UK. That is why we want a controlled system. But if
:35:16. > :35:19.Romanian sunned Bulgarians did want to move in the numbers that your
:35:19. > :35:22.parties might, they would be free to do it, but they would not have
:35:22. > :35:26.access to some of the services you said? They would only be free to do
:35:26. > :35:32.it if they were able to pass the visa points system that is part of
:35:32. > :35:36.our policy. The system already in place under the government you
:35:36. > :35:42.oppose? Under the current system, anybody from the European Union can
:35:42. > :35:45.come in. We all know that. There is little those three parties can do to
:35:45. > :35:48.stop the uncontrolled immigration coming in from remaining and
:35:48. > :35:55.Bulgaria. But what would you do to stop the immigration from Romania
:35:55. > :36:00.and Bulgaria? We want to withdraw from the new European Union. That is
:36:00. > :36:03.why I asked whether you would remove the right of European citizens to
:36:03. > :36:09.come here, and presumably, they would remove the right of which are
:36:09. > :36:12.citizens to move to the EU? They will not have the right under the
:36:12. > :36:16.European Union to come here freely without having to comply with the
:36:16. > :36:21.rules we will put in place. They will still have a right to apply to
:36:21. > :36:24.come to the UK, as would anybody from Africa, China or India. We want
:36:24. > :36:30.to create a fairer immigration system that is applicable to
:36:30. > :36:34.everybody will stop we need global talent, not just from a part of the
:36:34. > :36:38.world in Europe which is declining and often just brings us low skilled
:36:38. > :36:41.workers. The reason I push you on it is that when you go on it is that
:36:41. > :36:46.when you go onto the UKIP website, and this is arguably the most
:36:46. > :36:50.important policy UKIP has in terms of driving voters, it describes your
:36:50. > :36:56.immigration policy as currently under review. All the political
:36:56. > :37:00.parties are having to review the policies which were enacted for the
:37:00. > :37:06.2010 general election. We have had to consider the changes that have
:37:06. > :37:11.occurred over the past few years, including the economy collapsing the
:37:11. > :37:21.way it is. So like any sensible political party, we have to review
:37:21. > :37:21.
:37:21. > :37:25.our policies. But an immigration, it means that if a voter were to say to
:37:25. > :37:33.you, would there be fewer immigrants, you can't give a blanket
:37:33. > :37:37.answer as to how, or the numbers, or when. We would like to set a limit
:37:37. > :37:40.of 50,000 a year, although our policymakers are looking at this.
:37:40. > :37:50.Businesses have said that number is possibly too low. Hence the reason
:37:50. > :37:53.
:37:53. > :37:55.for the review. There was a physical number for you. Would we stop
:37:55. > :37:58.immigration from the European Union? Yes, but only for those who have
:37:58. > :38:01.opened or immigration at the moment. They would have to apply. It is very
:38:01. > :38:03.clear. But many of the people who have come to you have come to you
:38:03. > :38:06.because they think the established parties have broken their promises,
:38:06. > :38:09.and you have just told us the manifesto you ran on at the last
:38:09. > :38:14.election said there would be 50,000 coming in, but now you are doubly
:38:14. > :38:17.that a 100,000 as a result of a review. Are you not liable to the
:38:17. > :38:27.same problem the established parties have, which is that when people look
:38:27. > :38:35.
:38:35. > :38:37.at the detail, it is not what they thought it would be not say we would
:38:37. > :38:40.doubling it. I said businesses have suggested that we ought to double
:38:40. > :38:42.it. Any sensible party considering policy that is important to building
:38:42. > :38:45.the economic role of this party must do so. Sadly can't, UKIP are making
:38:45. > :38:48.inroads into areas where Labour have traditionally been strong because
:38:48. > :38:53.Labour, as they put it, made a hash of immigration when they were in
:38:53. > :38:57.power. They lost control, in the phrase used by UKIP any times. Is
:38:57. > :39:03.that something you have found when campaigning? That is one of your
:39:03. > :39:07.vulnerabilities. Let me begin by congratulating UKIP on their results
:39:07. > :39:12.last night. Secondly, UKIP have taken votes from all three of the
:39:12. > :39:19.main parties. You have been doing numbercrunching and it is more from
:39:19. > :39:22.the Tories, but we must not be complacent. It is arrogant when you
:39:22. > :39:27.call the supporters of the party picking up a quarter of the votes
:39:27. > :39:32.clowns. It is disparaging. For those who have voted UKIP, what sort of
:39:32. > :39:36.usage does it send? Vince has alluded to the politics and the
:39:36. > :39:39.talent around Europe. Our challenge is to persuade people to vote for
:39:39. > :39:45.one of our parties. You are right, we have to confess that in an
:39:45. > :39:50.government, we got some of our immigration policy wrong. We should
:39:50. > :39:53.have had different arrangements for the accession countries. For
:39:54. > :39:59.Bulgaria and Romania, we did the maximum possible for those
:39:59. > :40:03.countries. Next year will pose also is of challenges for us. But it is
:40:03. > :40:11.important to start by congratulating UKIP for their results and by saying
:40:11. > :40:17.to their voters, we will do our best to persuade you to trust our party.
:40:17. > :40:21.Vince Cable, do you have a sense of whether the UKIP surge is driven
:40:21. > :40:25.specifically by the immigration question, or is it more general
:40:25. > :40:31.unhappiness, unease and disgruntlement with economic
:40:31. > :40:34.conditions and the rest of it? a bit of each. Clearly, if you are
:40:34. > :40:38.in difficult economic conditions, which we have been in since the
:40:38. > :40:42.collapse of the banking system, immigration becomes a more acute
:40:42. > :40:47.issue because people are worried about jobs and general insecurity. I
:40:47. > :40:50.thought the exchange between Nick Robinson and the UKIP spokesman was
:40:50. > :40:56.revealing, because it makes it clear that in order to deal with this
:40:56. > :41:00.visceral issue which UKIP have exploited, you cannot deal with it
:41:00. > :41:05.unless you control migration within the European Union. To do that, you
:41:05. > :41:13.have to leave the European Union and the European economic area. So this
:41:13. > :41:17.idea that you have some sort of comfortable free trade area is a
:41:17. > :41:21.chimera. It is not something they could deliver. But there is a clear
:41:21. > :41:25.choice - you either stay within the European Union and try to reform it,
:41:25. > :41:29.or you get out completely, with all the uncertainty and cost involved.
:41:29. > :41:39.You will just have seen on the screen the latest result we have
:41:39. > :41:42.
:41:42. > :41:52.in. Emily, any more details? This is how it looks. 24th for the
:41:52. > :41:53.
:41:53. > :41:59.Conservatives, Labour an 18. We have not had the final count in. I can
:41:59. > :42:02.show you what happened overnight. It was a big hit for the Conservatives.
:42:02. > :42:08.Labour lost the same number they lost last time, so they will be
:42:08. > :42:14.pleased to have seen -- Labour gained the number they lost last
:42:14. > :42:19.time, so they will be pleased. The Greens took the scalp of the
:42:19. > :42:22.Conservative council leader here, but it is a council that has often
:42:22. > :42:28.been in the overall control, so it is not a massive surprise that it
:42:28. > :42:37.was not taken out right by Labour. They have never had it. As things
:42:37. > :42:42.stand, no overall control. Labour will be feeling pretty positive
:42:42. > :42:48.about this, even though it has not been an outright take. We have
:42:48. > :42:53.talked about it being a mixed picture around the country. The last
:42:53. > :42:56.I heard was that Labour's vote had gone up by 16% in Warwickshire, so
:42:56. > :43:01.it does show that there are parts of the country which Ed Miliband will
:43:01. > :43:08.want to visit and show how well they are doing. There are other parts
:43:08. > :43:11.where Labour are clearly failing to meet their targets. They dropped 7%
:43:11. > :43:18.against Gordon Brown's performance in Essex. They are doing well in
:43:18. > :43:26.Staffordshire. In those parts of the country where we are doing well,
:43:26. > :43:30.those are constituencies we have won back from the Conservatives. --
:43:30. > :43:37.constituencies we have to win back from the Conservatives. Let's bring
:43:37. > :43:41.in the former children's Minister. What do you make of it so far?
:43:41. > :43:46.a kick in the pants, mostly by UKIP, but it is a kick in the pants for
:43:46. > :43:51.everybody, not just us. Listening to your UKIP spokesman, they have done
:43:51. > :43:54.very well. There is no denying it. You have just hate -- had a
:43:54. > :43:59.discussion with him about immigration and he started throwing
:43:59. > :44:03.around figures with a 100% error margin, but immigration is nothing
:44:03. > :44:07.to do with the county council, and yesterday we had county council
:44:07. > :44:14.elections. UKIP are much more of a threat in other parts of the
:44:14. > :44:17.country. We may lose some seats to UKIP, but they have been campaigning
:44:17. > :44:22.on Europe, immigration and international aid. But they are
:44:22. > :44:26.against all of those things. We don't know what they are for. I
:44:26. > :44:30.struggled a lot with UKIP people to say, what are your policies? What
:44:30. > :44:34.will you do locally? What is your education policy? That is what
:44:34. > :44:38.county council elections are about, and they had no answer. So they will
:44:38. > :44:44.come under scrutiny now as to what people think they are about if they
:44:44. > :44:50.are to be taken seriously. I am just going to put to you a quote from a
:44:50. > :44:54.defeated Conservative councillor in Hampshire, Alexis McEvoy, writing
:44:54. > :44:58.for the Daily Telegraph, saying "I lost my seat in the UKIP surge
:44:58. > :45:00.because David Cameron has ditched our core values and no one believes
:45:00. > :45:10.he will give us a referendum on Europe". How widespread is that
:45:10. > :45:28.
:45:28. > :45:33.view? We are going through unprecedented economic times, but
:45:33. > :45:36.people are having their patience stretched. On subjects like Europe,
:45:36. > :45:40.David Cameron in January went further than any Conservative
:45:40. > :45:46.leader, even Mrs Thatcher, in promising a straightforward in-out
:45:46. > :45:50.referendum on our continued membership of Europe. If you are
:45:50. > :45:54.around my age, you have never had the opportunity to vote on
:45:54. > :45:58.membership in Europe, it is very different in 1975 when there was a
:45:58. > :46:02.referendum. We are going to have that referendum if there is a
:46:02. > :46:05.Conservative government. There is no question about that. Voting UKIP
:46:05. > :46:10.rather than conservative is going to make that referendum less likely at
:46:10. > :46:16.the next election, so do Europe really want to see a referendum on
:46:16. > :46:20.Europe where they can urge people to vote against -- UKIP. Or are they
:46:20. > :46:24.just posturing. Under a Conservative government, you will have a
:46:24. > :46:28.referendum on our future relationship with Europe, something
:46:28. > :46:35.David Cameron has promised. There are other things that have been
:46:35. > :46:39.mentioned, things we stand for and are in the manifesto, we have
:46:39. > :46:42.promised. We are taking a long time to deliver and we must deliver and
:46:42. > :46:47.that is why people are saying they are a bit disappointed, because some
:46:47. > :46:51.of the things that they look to Conservatives to do, that David
:46:51. > :46:57.Cameron and the manifesto promised, we are yet to see, and that is the
:46:57. > :47:05.real message, get on with it. you the joining us. The former
:47:05. > :47:11.children's minister. I enjoyed in the studio by professor Vernon
:47:11. > :47:15.Bogdanor, contemporary Dutch professor of contemporary history --
:47:15. > :47:19.professor of contemporary history at odds of university. Is this a blip
:47:19. > :47:24.or a change of landscape? It is a remarkable day in British politics.
:47:24. > :47:27.You normally expect the Government to do badly in these elections and
:47:27. > :47:32.the opposition to do well and it doesn't have much national asset, it
:47:32. > :47:36.is the bottom rapidly, but here, the voters are using local elections to
:47:36. > :47:40.send a message to the politicians at Westminster, because after all,
:47:40. > :47:43.UKIP's made policy plank is that Britain should leave the European
:47:43. > :47:48.Union. All of the opinion polls that we have show at least a very large
:47:48. > :47:52.when oratory of the voters and in some polls, the majority, share that
:47:52. > :47:57.view, but not of the party leaders believe that we ought to leave the
:47:57. > :48:02.European Union. And even more important issue in the minds of many
:48:02. > :48:07.voters is immigration from the EU member states, and where the feeling
:48:07. > :48:12.is strong, as in Lincolnshire UKIP have done well, and this is also a
:48:12. > :48:16.problem for all of the main parties, because of course, you cannot limit
:48:16. > :48:19.immigration from the EU countries while you remain in the European
:48:19. > :48:24.Union, the Treaty of Rome insists on free movement of people, so that
:48:24. > :48:28.powerful message being sent by the voters is that they are not being
:48:28. > :48:32.listened to by the party leaders, and I think it will have a very
:48:32. > :48:39.great effect. We may even see it in the Queens speech next week, it is
:48:39. > :48:41.possible David Cameron might produce a bill providing for a referendum, a
:48:41. > :48:44.binding referendum, before the general election, so that no future
:48:44. > :48:49.government can really get out of it without considerable embarrassment.
:48:49. > :48:54.So we may see changes as soon as next week. Commitment on a
:48:54. > :48:58.referendum, not the legislated one, it has been there for awhile, so in
:48:58. > :49:01.that case, what is the issue? Why are people still not registering the
:49:01. > :49:08.fact that if I do actually want a referendum on whether or not we stay
:49:08. > :49:15.in EU, David Cameron is offering me that, I'm still going over to UKIP.
:49:15. > :49:19.What is the people here? -- what is the issue. I would imagine that
:49:19. > :49:24.Nigel Farage would say that David Cameron promised a referendum on the
:49:24. > :49:28.Treaty of Lisbon but didn't. When he came to power, it had already been
:49:28. > :49:34.ratified but that did not affect the memory that people have not been
:49:34. > :49:38.asked their views on Europe since 1975, so it is a serious problem.
:49:38. > :49:41.Another problem is the coalition. David Cameron hinted he would be
:49:41. > :49:45.satisfied with parliament voting on the issue of the EU referendum, but
:49:45. > :49:48.there are two problems. If he had such a vote, he would lose it
:49:48. > :49:52.because Labour and the Liberal Democrats would combine and voted
:49:52. > :49:55.down and secondly, this is a coalition government and the
:49:55. > :50:00.coalition controls what proposals are put in the Queens speech. If the
:50:00. > :50:06.prime Minster tensed in the lead, his deputy, and says I would like a
:50:06. > :50:11.bill in the speech next week to have a referendum on the EU dash to Nick
:50:11. > :50:18.Clegg. I'm just going to predict to you that he will say no. A further
:50:18. > :50:20.consequence of what is happening today is putting more strain on the
:50:20. > :50:26.coalition government between a broadly Euro-sceptic Conservative
:50:26. > :50:30.hearty and a pro-European Liberal Democrat party. Mister Farage has
:50:30. > :50:34.had time to have a little bit of refreshment before having a rest,
:50:34. > :50:43.and there he was earlier, just around the corner in Westminster. A
:50:43. > :50:48.bit of a photo opportunity. He is having a nice time, clearly. It is
:50:48. > :50:51.worth knowing, for people who don't know Westminster, Nigel Farage has
:50:51. > :50:57.just been circling within about half a mile, probably less, of the studio
:50:57. > :51:02.since about eight o'clock this morning. He has been following the
:51:02. > :51:05.cameras, he talks to us, he talks to competitor television stations,
:51:05. > :51:10.people abroad, he goes to the pub. Normally, political leaders at this
:51:10. > :51:13.stage, they head off to a place and take cameras with them. I don't
:51:13. > :51:19.think you will see Nigel Farage leave this area. He has taken the
:51:19. > :51:27.time to spoke -- speak to every BBC local radio station, which we often
:51:27. > :51:30.find hard to get party leaders to do. He is milking his success.
:51:30. > :51:34.speak to two of our prominent political commentators, they are on
:51:34. > :51:40.the Green. I am assuming they haven't been to the pub. What is
:51:40. > :51:44.your take so far? We have had nine declarations in, 26 to go. The bulk
:51:44. > :51:47.of these results will come this afternoon, but so far, what do you
:51:48. > :51:53.make of it? The direction of travel does look quite clear, even if some
:51:53. > :51:57.of the details change later on. This has been Nigel Farage's night and
:51:57. > :52:00.the problem he has left is it makes David Cameron look like someone who
:52:00. > :52:04.tried to move his party to the centre but he does not control the
:52:04. > :52:07.centre ground. Labour have not done too badly, and Mr Cameron is
:52:07. > :52:11.therefore fighting the centre ground against a lot of competition and his
:52:11. > :52:19.right flank looks like it has been eaten away remorselessly by UKIP.
:52:19. > :52:22.Steve? I think this has been the ultimate anti-politics election. And
:52:22. > :52:25.I don't support this anti-politics mood in the country, I think voters
:52:25. > :52:31.are wrong to feel so alienated by the mainstream political parties,
:52:31. > :52:37.but they do. And this presents them all with a big problem, but
:52:37. > :52:41.specifically the Conservatives. We know what happens when a vote on
:52:41. > :52:46.1-party political spectrum is fractured, we saw it with the SDP
:52:46. > :52:50.and labour in the 80s. Although UKIP has appealed in some Labour areas,
:52:50. > :52:57.it is more to the Conservatives that this is a threat, and there's not
:52:57. > :53:03.much that Kamran do to stop it or that David Cameron can do to stop
:53:03. > :53:09.it. It is out there, Nigel Farage having a drink and I think it will
:53:09. > :53:16.be around at the time of the general election. You are not totally
:53:16. > :53:19.convinced? I don't think it is an anti-politics vote, it is a vote for
:53:19. > :53:25.certain policies that UKIP stands for, rightly or wrongly. A greater
:53:25. > :53:28.degree of Euro scepticism, leaving Europe and stronger control of
:53:28. > :53:31.immigration. It would be fair to say that some of the votes for the
:53:31. > :53:35.Liberal Democrats in the past were protest votes. Although they had a
:53:35. > :53:39.wide range of policies, they didn't have one specifically clear policy
:53:39. > :53:43.in the way that UKIP does, and if you say it is an anti-politics
:53:43. > :53:46.vote, you have to explain why it has gone to UKIP rather than to any of
:53:47. > :53:50.the other minor parties. It is a clear message going to the
:53:50. > :53:56.Westminster politicians and I think they would be foolish to ignore it.
:53:56. > :54:00.I'm going to disagree, to be fair. I will give you one fascinating little
:54:00. > :54:05.detail from the other day, when there was an opinion poll done, bear
:54:05. > :54:13.with me, on the measles epidemic. It discovered that five times more UKIP
:54:13. > :54:17.voters feared the MMR jab than other voters. What does it tell you? You
:54:17. > :54:24.may say nothing at all, but you may say that it tells you that the
:54:24. > :54:28.mindset of the UKIP voter is antiestablishment, it is suspicious
:54:28. > :54:32.of the messages they are told by the men in suits. They reject what they
:54:32. > :54:35.are getting from people who they think have a chance to run the
:54:35. > :54:41.country, whatever their political colour, and haven't done it very
:54:41. > :54:47.badly. So in that sense, I think Steve Richards is right. I will go
:54:47. > :54:54.back to and and Steve. What does this mean for conservative strategy
:54:54. > :55:00.in particular, and partly Labour, heading into 2015? There is an anvil
:55:00. > :55:03.is going past. It means that David Cameron has the think quite quickly
:55:03. > :55:08.about this referendum offer, he made it after the last election on
:55:08. > :55:13.Europe, but it has not been good enough. The Tory response to UKIP
:55:13. > :55:16.has been lamentable, certainly Ken Clarke going out like a blunderbuss
:55:16. > :55:20.saying that you're a closet racist or stupid if you are thinking of
:55:20. > :55:24.voting for them, it caused an immense backlash, so they have to go
:55:24. > :55:28.back to basics and will have to try and co-opt UKIP voters. That is very
:55:28. > :55:32.difficult for a leader who has set himself up as a moderniser who
:55:32. > :55:37.wanted to colonise the centre ground. Does he try and get a
:55:37. > :55:42.referendum through before the next election? Can he get it through the
:55:42. > :55:46.Commons? If it looks like he has lost momentum, and I partly agree
:55:46. > :55:51.with Steve, but it is about the EU and immigration and unless he moves
:55:51. > :56:01.on those issues, I think UKIP will do him serious damage. Steve, do you
:56:01. > :56:02.
:56:02. > :56:06.agree? I do, and I think it explains why David Cameron hasn't got a fully
:56:06. > :56:11.developed public voice. He is a talented politician so why has he
:56:11. > :56:16.not resonated more? He cannot decide if he wants to be centre ground, he
:56:16. > :56:20.used the word "progressive" when he was in opposition, or whether he has
:56:20. > :56:24.do somehow or another will those going over to UKIP, he has got to
:56:24. > :56:28.get those boats back. How he does that and have a credible, coherent
:56:28. > :56:33.political voice, I don't know the answer. And in different ways, Ed
:56:33. > :56:40.Miliband has served -- similar sorts of dilemmas as to his public page
:56:40. > :56:42.and we are in a period where these national leaders are themselves
:56:42. > :56:48.confused that the moment as to have a win that general election, and the
:56:48. > :56:52.UKIP phenomenon will reinforce that. To some extent, David Cameron, in
:56:52. > :56:55.policy terms, has tried to address the concerns of these UKIP voters on
:56:55. > :57:00.immigration and Europe and they are not listening to him. This is a real
:57:00. > :57:05.problem. Thank you very much. We have had a result in from Cumbria,
:57:05. > :57:08.Emily. I suspect this will be disappointing for Labour, it has
:57:08. > :57:16.remained in overall control. This was one of their hopes for the
:57:16. > :57:20.night, they lost 15 seeds last time around and if I show you what
:57:20. > :57:21.happened overnight, they may well get back two thirds of those losses,
:57:21. > :57:25.but they haven't done enough to take control. The Conservatives have
:57:25. > :57:35.taken a hit, they are down 12 councillors. The Liberal Democrats
:57:35. > :57:35.
:57:35. > :57:38.gaining a seat. There are important battles around that area but it
:57:38. > :57:43.remains in overall control. Nick Robinson, we will be stopping for
:57:43. > :57:47.the News at one soon, and taking a little break, but going through the
:57:47. > :57:51.afternoon, we have 25 results to wait for. There is a lot to wait for
:57:51. > :57:54.and as we are finding, there isn't a common pattern. You are seeing
:57:54. > :57:58.different results in different parts of the country and what you are
:57:58. > :58:02.hearing from the political parties is what their number crunchers are
:58:03. > :58:06.doing, what does that mean for marginal seats, so these numbers
:58:06. > :58:10.exist at a number of different levels. Who runs your town hall, but
:58:10. > :58:17.also, who will win that seat in two years' time and we way off from
:58:17. > :58:22.where we should be? I am re-sorry, we are out of time, but it was good
:58:22. > :58:26.of you to join us. We will pick it up after the news and Nick, we will
:58:26. > :58:31.be talking to you and Emily and Jeremy. We will take a pause, the
:58:32. > :58:36.news is coming up on BBC One and on the BBC News Channel and we will be
:58:36. > :58:41.back at two o'clock with all of the very latest results. As I say, 25
:58:41. > :58:46.local authorities yet to declare. At the moment, the Conservatives are