:00:31. > :00:34.Good afternoon and welcome to the BBC's election Centre. In the next
:00:34. > :00:40.couple of hours, we are expecting the bulk of the local election
:00:40. > :00:46.results, 20 declared now, with 50 to go. The contest was yesterday. 34
:00:46. > :00:52.councils in England, one in Wales, the biggest electoral test of the
:00:52. > :00:57.year. The biggest celebration so far has been in the UKIP camp. Their
:00:57. > :01:03.leader, Nigel Farage, has been celebrating in his usual style.
:01:03. > :01:08.There was a big surge in UKIP support. Dozens of games. Most of
:01:08. > :01:15.the councils have yet to declare, and we have 15 to go. What about the
:01:15. > :01:19.Conservatives? David Cameron was on a visit to Oxford University today,
:01:19. > :01:24.but he is due to respond to the results within the next hour or so.
:01:24. > :01:30.He will have something to say about the Conservative performance and may
:01:30. > :01:33.be about the other parties, too. But the Conservatives lost overall
:01:33. > :01:39.control of several councils. At the moment, six of them. They are
:01:39. > :01:45.hanging on to 11. That was South Shields last night, the
:01:45. > :01:48.Parliamentary by-election, which Labour retained. But UKIP took
:01:48. > :01:58.second place, with a strong performance. Labour's share of the
:01:58. > :02:00.
:02:00. > :02:05.vote was coming -- constant, but there vote was halved. And Lib the
:02:05. > :02:14.Lib Dems did badly in South Shields. All parties were affected by the
:02:15. > :02:24.UKIP search. Nick Robinson is with me, the BBC
:02:25. > :02:27.
:02:27. > :02:31.political editor. More analysis to come. We now have a rush of results.
:02:31. > :02:35.With no further ado, here is a news update.
:02:35. > :02:39.The leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage, has claimed
:02:39. > :02:42.that the results of yesterday's local elections have sent a
:02:42. > :02:47.shockwave through the establishment. Many votes have yet to be counted,
:02:47. > :02:51.but so far, UKIP is winning about a quarter of the vote in the wards
:02:51. > :02:54.where it has candidates standing. The party also pushed the
:02:54. > :03:00.Conservatives into third place in the South Shields Parliamentary
:03:00. > :03:06.by-election, which was held by Labour.
:03:06. > :03:10.They don't have any MPs. They don't run any big councils, but this is a
:03:10. > :03:16.big moment for UKIP. So far, they have won around one in every four
:03:17. > :03:22.votes cast, making them impossible to ignore. The campaign has flowed
:03:22. > :03:26.for the party once described by the prime minister as loonies,
:03:26. > :03:29.fruitcakes and closet racists. have been abused by the
:03:29. > :03:34.establishment, and now they are shocked and stunned that we are
:03:34. > :03:39.getting over 25% of the vote everywhere we stand. This is a real
:03:40. > :03:43.sea change British politics. Labour did hold the one Parliamentary seat
:03:43. > :03:48.up for election, a seat they have held for generations, South Shields.
:03:48. > :03:53.Labour won here as well north Tyneside, where their campaign for
:03:53. > :03:58.mayor beat the Conservatives, but both victories were most wins.
:03:58. > :04:03.Overall, the party's performance has been mixed. Some who have not voted
:04:03. > :04:06.before have come out and voted UKIP, but it is a party of protest, not a
:04:06. > :04:12.party of government. The Conservatives lost control of
:04:12. > :04:16.Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire of UKIP's gains, posing questions for
:04:16. > :04:23.the Tory leadership. We hear you, we get what you are saying. We
:04:23. > :04:28.understand that people are impatient for change. We appreciate that
:04:28. > :04:33.people are anxious to see problems fixed in this country. All the big
:04:33. > :04:40.parties now have to decide how to face up to the UKIP threat. Already,
:04:40. > :04:44.the insults have gone. There is unease about how politics is done in
:04:44. > :04:48.this country. Nigel Farage, in a way that Boris Johnson does as well,
:04:48. > :04:53.connects with some of that unease. These elections will be remembered
:04:53. > :05:00.for UKIP's breakthrough, as small as the party still remains. The Nigel
:05:00. > :05:04.Farage, there has only ever been one way to celebrate.
:05:04. > :05:08.Now the rest of the day's stories. The jury in the trial of Mark
:05:08. > :05:14.Bridger, accused of murdering five-year-old April Jones, have been
:05:14. > :05:17.shown CCTV footage of his movements around the time sheets of bid. Mark
:05:17. > :05:21.Bridger is shown buying alcohol in a Spar store and his Land Rover is
:05:21. > :05:23.seen outside his home and being driven around the area. He denies
:05:23. > :05:29.murdering April Jones, who disappeared in October in north
:05:29. > :05:33.Wales. The Royal Bank of Scotland returned to profit in the first
:05:33. > :05:40.quarter of this year. The bank, more than 80% owned by the
:05:40. > :05:45.taxpayer, made a pre-tax profit of �826 million. That compares with a
:05:45. > :05:48.�1.5 billion loss in the same period last. The chairman of RBS says the
:05:48. > :05:53.bank should be ready for a return to the private sector by the middle of
:05:53. > :05:56.2014. A man who provided security
:05:56. > :06:01.protection for Rebekah Brooks, the former chief executive of News
:06:01. > :06:06.International, is being charged with conspiracy to pervert the course of
:06:06. > :06:09.justice. David Johnson is accused of concealing a computer and other
:06:09. > :06:13.items and will appear before Westminster magistrates next
:06:13. > :06:18.Wednesday. The charge comes as Scotland Yard continues its
:06:18. > :06:21.investigations into phone hacking and payments to public officials.
:06:21. > :06:27.The special prosecutor in Pakistan investigating the murder of the
:06:27. > :06:33.former prime minister has been shot dead in Islamabad. Men on motorbikes
:06:33. > :06:37.attacked him in front of his home. He died later in hospital. He was
:06:37. > :06:45.also the main lawyer in a case related to the terrorist attacks in
:06:45. > :06:55.Mumbai in 2008. Now let's return to the team at
:06:55. > :07:03.
:07:03. > :07:10.Westminster. We will have more news later. In the
:07:10. > :07:15.past hour, we have had a flow of results after a slow morning. We had
:07:15. > :07:20.a few overnight and a couple this morning, but suddenly, we have had a
:07:20. > :07:29.flow of results. Let's go to Emily for the latest. Yes, they are coming
:07:29. > :07:34.in thick and fast. These are the places where we have had results.
:07:34. > :07:38.This is the most dramatic result. Norfolk has been taken out of
:07:38. > :07:45.Conservative control. No overall control is shown by this grey.
:07:46. > :07:55.Lancashire has gone into no overall control as well. So has East Sussex.
:07:55. > :08:01.Derbyshire is the first take in red for Labour from no overall control.
:08:01. > :08:09.The others have stayed within Conservative control. Let me show
:08:09. > :08:14.you the result in Norfolk. They have not quite finished the final
:08:14. > :08:24.counting in the wards, so bear with us. We do know that it cannot be
:08:24. > :08:26.
:08:26. > :08:34.taken by the Conservatives. UKIP are in second place, as we saw in
:08:34. > :08:43.Lincolnshire. Norfolk has been held by the Conservatives for nine out of
:08:43. > :08:48.the last ten elections, so it is a real shock to see them out. Let me
:08:48. > :08:56.show you the share of the vote. This is not the number of seats, because
:08:56. > :09:02.it has a first past the post system, but it shows you how it breaks up.
:09:03. > :09:12.The Conservatives are still ahead in terms of share. Let me show you the
:09:13. > :09:38.
:09:38. > :09:44.result of the result of a Parliamentary marginals here. Plenty
:09:44. > :09:48.more results coming in. Well, we certainly want to talk
:09:48. > :09:52.about Norfolk, as that is very significant. Lancashire, too,
:09:52. > :10:02.because that opens up a couple of other arguments for us. Let's go to
:10:02. > :10:03.
:10:03. > :10:11.Preston for a live update. What has happened there? It is a good result
:10:11. > :10:17.for Labour, but not as good as they were hoping for. Labour are now on
:10:17. > :10:21.39 seats. The Tories have 35. That means Labour gained 23 seats in this
:10:21. > :10:26.county council election. A lot of games from a very low base, but not
:10:26. > :10:32.the magic 26 they needed for control. They are three seats away
:10:32. > :10:37.from control, leaving the Liberal Democrats and others with the
:10:37. > :10:40.balance of power. And we are hearing from the Conservatives that they are
:10:40. > :10:44.not conceding. They are hoping they will remain in control in
:10:44. > :10:50.Lancashire, so there will be some political horsetrading going on over
:10:50. > :10:54.the weekend, with news emerging of whoever will lead Lancashire.
:10:54. > :11:04.Since we were on air earlier, we have also had results from Devon
:11:04. > :11:05.
:11:05. > :11:10.among other places, let talk to our political editor in the south-west.
:11:10. > :11:15.In Devon, the Tories, who controlled the council, stayed in control. They
:11:15. > :11:20.have not just held off the challenge from their traditional rivals, the
:11:20. > :11:24.Lib Dems. The Lib Dems have had their worst showing since the 1970s.
:11:24. > :11:30.But UKIP were the big story. They are second in terms of vote share
:11:30. > :11:34.and they have ended up with four councillors. Doesn't sound much, but
:11:34. > :11:39.compared to the flatlining they have done in these local elections
:11:39. > :11:43.previously, it is a significant breakthrough. When we look at the
:11:43. > :11:48.balance of the other parties, go through a couple of the performances
:11:48. > :11:54.for us. Who is happy and who is disappointed? Labour have done
:11:54. > :12:04.reasonably well. Traditionally, their support ends to be focused in
:12:04. > :12:07.a number of small areas in Devon. A Green councillor was elected. A
:12:07. > :12:11.Green councillor was also elected last time, but she defected to
:12:11. > :12:20.Labour. So clearly, it was a Green vote rather than a personal vote
:12:20. > :12:25.which held an in that area. Nick is with me and my guests are in
:12:25. > :12:31.the studio as well. Michael Gove, so far, you are hanging on to 13. You
:12:31. > :12:34.lost control of six. But Norfolk is one of the most notable ones that we
:12:34. > :12:37.need to talk about. We have to remember that these are local
:12:37. > :12:43.elections and there were specific local factors in Norfolk which may
:12:43. > :12:51.have had an impact. But it is striking that while UKIP are picking
:12:51. > :12:55.up votes across the country, they seem to be the beneficiary of the
:12:55. > :13:00.anxiety and discontent that voters feel in the middle of a coalition
:13:00. > :13:03.government's term, and not the Labour Party. I was struck that
:13:03. > :13:08.Labour were not winning in Lancashire or Cumbria. When Michael
:13:08. > :13:13.Foot was opposition leader in 1981, these were councils that Labour took
:13:13. > :13:18.control of. So it is striking that Labour are not doing as well as they
:13:18. > :13:23.did when Michael Foot was their leader. There are Conservative
:13:23. > :13:27.supporters who probably would like to vote for you, but they feel that
:13:27. > :13:32.UKIP are offering what Mr Farage told us was a more direct option.
:13:32. > :13:36.You don't recognise that? There are a host of reasons why people have
:13:36. > :13:40.chosen to vote for UKIP, and we respect the choices that individuals
:13:40. > :13:44.make. We have to make an effort to understand what led people who in
:13:44. > :13:49.many cases might have voted Conservative in the past and might
:13:49. > :13:57.in the future, not to support as now. It is too simple to say there
:13:57. > :14:00.is one explanation for UKIP's popularity. Do you think it is now
:14:00. > :14:04.time for the prime minister to apologise and say they are not
:14:04. > :14:08.loonies, fruitcakes or closet racists? We will be hearing shortly
:14:08. > :14:15.from the prime minister and I don't want to pre-empt what he will say. I
:14:15. > :14:25.think you just have! I think he may un-say some of the things he has
:14:25. > :14:28.previously said. Tom Watson, what do you think so far? Labour made some
:14:28. > :14:36.gains and there will be people celebrating in some parts, but it is
:14:36. > :14:43.nowhere near the level, not even back to 2005. So if you are looking
:14:43. > :14:49.to 2015 on the basis of some of these results, it is not great.
:14:49. > :14:52.have not had all the results in yet, but in these areas where we were
:14:52. > :14:59.challenging, 80% returned Conservative MPs in 2010, so these
:14:59. > :15:03.are the deepest and parklands in the cycle of elections. For me, I am
:15:03. > :15:09.looking at whether battleground seats are, so I have not seen the
:15:09. > :15:13.re-dash-mac results for Norfolk yet. But in Norwich, we have two strong
:15:13. > :15:16.Parliamentary candidates who are leading a renaissance in our
:15:16. > :15:20.campaigning. I have looked at our results in Hastings and the south
:15:20. > :15:24.coast and some of the Lancashire seats that we need to win back.
:15:24. > :15:28.These are the building blocks of a general election victory. We have
:15:28. > :15:32.done well in those areas despite the overall results in the shires, and
:15:32. > :15:40.that is because of the work of our members, who have worked hard and
:15:40. > :15:46.are up for the fight in 2015. disappointed I used that
:15:46. > :15:51.Northumberland has come through as a hung council? We wind -- wanted to
:15:51. > :15:56.win all the Shire elections, even in deepest booking. We won a seat
:15:57. > :16:01.there, which is nice to see and won a seat in Whitney Central, which is
:16:01. > :16:05.nice to see. We have to be realistic as a party about where our
:16:05. > :16:08.strongholds are. We were very ambitious in our targets. When we
:16:08. > :16:14.have had time to reflect on the figures, we will be quietly
:16:14. > :16:16.satisfied about the gains we have made in those battleground seats.
:16:16. > :16:22.The most shocking result, the Conservatives have held onto sorry,
:16:22. > :16:29.you will be glad to know! Yellow beanie to the reassurance. One thing
:16:29. > :16:33.that might be less reassuring, a Labour Party member has been elected
:16:33. > :16:38.in the Prime Minister's hometown of Whitney. The Conservatives came
:16:38. > :16:44.third. May be the prime Minister will say something about that as
:16:44. > :16:49.well. You are hearing labour and to a certain extent the Liberal
:16:49. > :16:54.Democrats redefine the test and it is how we are doing in Parliamentary
:16:54. > :16:57.constituencies. It is clearly true that really, if you are in Labour
:16:57. > :17:02.HQ, if you work for Ed Miliband, that is what you want to know, how
:17:02. > :17:07.close are you getting to a winning margin but there are places like
:17:07. > :17:15.Lancashire that they have controlled for year after year and they have
:17:15. > :17:19.not quite managed to pull it off. am going to go to Mark Denton,
:17:19. > :17:26.because Mark is in Northumberland for us. He has the latest on the
:17:26. > :17:30.result that flashed on the screen just now. Tell us about it? Since
:17:30. > :17:33.2008, Huw, Northumberland county council has been with Lib Dems as
:17:33. > :17:38.the largest party, just short of an overall majority. They have been
:17:38. > :17:41.running the council, putting them policies into operation. What has
:17:41. > :17:48.happened in the last half an hour, it has been confirmed that Labour
:17:48. > :17:52.are the largest party. They are just agonisingly short of a majority,
:17:52. > :17:58.just two seats short of an overall majority but what a turnaround. The
:17:58. > :18:02.Lib Dems, who were the largest party, 25 seats, reduced to 11 seats
:18:02. > :18:06.and reduced to the third party on the council. The Conservatives will
:18:06. > :18:11.be the official opposition with 21 seats. Swathes of Lib Dem seats lost
:18:11. > :18:18.on this council, but surprisingly in that context the Lib Dem leader
:18:18. > :18:21.here, Jeff Reed, did survive, just. He is a very relieved man today.
:18:21. > :18:26.Thanks for the update in Northumberland. Lord Newby, that
:18:26. > :18:35.clearly is quite a blow, taking 14 seats away from your tally in
:18:35. > :18:37.Northumberland. Some other areas not looking too healthy for you? It is a
:18:37. > :18:40.mixed picture. Northumberland is slightly unusual for the Lib Dems,
:18:40. > :18:45.because in a lot of the seats we were facing the Labour party. Last
:18:45. > :18:48.time, we were the party picking up protest votes against a Labour
:18:49. > :18:52.government. We are not picking up protest votes now. In somewhere like
:18:52. > :18:56.the Southern Northumberland seats, that is why we have lost there. The
:18:56. > :18:59.key thing for us, getting back to the earlier point you made, those
:18:59. > :19:04.seats in the county elections which form part of our Parliamentary
:19:04. > :19:12.constituencies, we have tended to do very well and we have picked up
:19:12. > :19:14.additional feeds in some of our parliamentary constituencies.
:19:14. > :19:17.Obviously, doing well in parliamentary constituencies is not
:19:17. > :19:22.the only thing that matters to us. It is very important as we look
:19:22. > :19:26.forward to the next election. joined by John Redwood. What is your
:19:26. > :19:31.reading of white your party has been quite vulnerable over night and
:19:31. > :19:34.yesterday to UKIP's campaign? are a very large number of those who
:19:34. > :19:38.feel we cannot govern the country any more because Europe simply has
:19:38. > :19:42.far too much power and many others resent the way in which our
:19:42. > :19:45.government can't decide who to extradite, if there are people who
:19:45. > :19:49.ought to stand trial somewhere else, can't decide the welfare benefits
:19:49. > :19:52.because the European Court of Justice thinks it knows better,
:19:52. > :19:56.can't decide our energy prices and energy policy, cannot decide quite a
:19:57. > :20:00.lot of our criminal justice and borders policy, cannot control
:20:00. > :20:03.migration, and some others carry on voting Conservative because we
:20:03. > :20:07.accept the Prime Minister wishes a new relationship with the European
:20:07. > :20:11.Union, but others are very impatient. They are saying we want
:20:11. > :20:16.the borders sorted out now, energy sorted out now, the economic
:20:16. > :20:19.recovery now. You are not able to deliver it, any of you three big
:20:19. > :20:24.parties, because you are not renegotiating this dreadful
:20:24. > :20:31.relationship with the European Union. What is the answer to that,
:20:31. > :20:34.Michael Gove? To elect Michael Comer at -- to elect Cameron as the
:20:34. > :20:38.election leader next election and put the choice to the people in a
:20:38. > :20:43.referendum. Were that the David Cameron who is pushing forward with
:20:43. > :20:47.the policies as opposed to someone under pressure from some corners of
:20:47. > :20:55.the party to adjust significantly? I assume -- assuming you would like
:20:55. > :20:59.today to signal that he is listening and changing, not? I want him to go
:20:59. > :21:03.further and faster on this issue and I still do. The fact that a lot of
:21:03. > :21:09.people agree with me, some of them have voted Conservative some have
:21:09. > :21:12.voted UKIP, is a reinforcement of that message. I am glad more of them
:21:12. > :21:15.voted Conservative than UKIP, but a lot of people are so frustrated
:21:15. > :21:20.because they know that our government ministers in many
:21:20. > :21:25.departments are simply unable now to do what they might wish to do and
:21:25. > :21:28.what the public want them to do. It is high time we sorted out this
:21:28. > :21:31.deeply unsatisfactory relationship, at a time when our partners are
:21:31. > :21:36.renegotiating, to take even more power to Brussels and do even more
:21:36. > :21:39.things that British people would object to and fight deeply damaging.
:21:39. > :21:43.Is this the time for the Conservatives, if they can, to
:21:43. > :21:51.engineer a vote in the House of Commons on a future EU referendum,
:21:51. > :21:54.or receive and that too much like kicking it into the long grass for
:21:54. > :21:56.you? We have done that once already and not enough of our colleagues
:21:56. > :22:00.decided to vote with us. We are looking for the Prime Minister to
:22:00. > :22:03.make a proposal. I think a majority of Conservative MPs want faster
:22:03. > :22:10.progress on the new relationship with the EU. We were pleased with
:22:10. > :22:13.the words of the Bloomberg speech that he made not so long ago. He
:22:13. > :22:15.said in terms for the first time that the country needs a new
:22:16. > :22:20.relationship with the EU. That is what Conservative and UKIP voters
:22:20. > :22:23.are trying to get across in these elections. We are saying please, now
:22:23. > :22:27.the elections are out of the way, let's go further and faster. Let's
:22:27. > :22:32.get on with it and if the Liberal Democrats don't like it, they will
:22:32. > :22:35.have to vote against. That is the question following, there is an
:22:35. > :22:39.obvious obstacle or restriction which is the coalition partners. I
:22:39. > :22:44.will ask Lord Newby and a second. You are saying that approach needs
:22:44. > :22:47.to be more brutal? I think it has to be modified. I think the Labour
:22:47. > :22:51.Party, facing the disappointing results they are facing today as
:22:51. > :22:55.well and hearing the same message with their voters going off to UKIP
:22:55. > :22:59.in some cases, will want to stand against us. I think if we had that
:22:59. > :23:01.mandate referendum to start the renegotiation, if ministers started
:23:01. > :23:11.the renegotiation from the Conservative side, I think the
:23:11. > :23:14.Labour Party would have to go along with that. Your thought on that, Mr
:23:14. > :23:16.Gove? The most effective way we can ensure that David Cameron is in a
:23:16. > :23:22.position to negotiate a better position for Britain, is to win the
:23:22. > :23:25.next elections. We have the case where Conservatives cannot get
:23:25. > :23:30.everything they want and we need to make sure that the position at the
:23:30. > :23:35.next election is clear and I hope and expect that David Cameron will
:23:35. > :23:38.secure the majority necessary to make the changes we want to see.
:23:38. > :23:42.political difficulty is this, there may be people watching this
:23:42. > :23:46.programme who voted UKIP who say the best way to harden up Tory policy is
:23:47. > :23:51.not to vote Tory, it is to vote for UKIP. After all, he did not make
:23:51. > :23:55.that promise until there was the prospect of UKIP doing well. We hear
:23:55. > :23:59.Conservatives pushing to go further and there may be many Conservatives
:23:59. > :24:06.who may not switch back to the Tories but carry on voting for UKIP
:24:06. > :24:09.because it puts the heat verities wanted. Even Nigel Farage concedes
:24:09. > :24:13.he is not going to be the prime minister. It will be either Ed
:24:13. > :24:17.Miliband or David Cameron. Therefore, the choice for anyone who
:24:17. > :24:20.puts Europe at the top of their list of issues is whom would you rather
:24:20. > :24:24.have standing up for Britain in Europe? Ed Miliband, who has been
:24:24. > :24:28.weak in the face of European integration in the past, or David
:24:28. > :24:31.Cameron, who has been strong. A related point is that as I mentioned
:24:31. > :24:35.earlier, there are a host of people why people will have voted UKIP.
:24:35. > :24:45.Some will be concerned about the pace and nature of European
:24:45. > :24:47.
:24:47. > :24:51.integration, but others will have had concerns that we need to take
:24:51. > :24:55.into account. We will hear from UKIP in a moment. You mentioned further
:24:55. > :25:00.and faster, but spell it out. In policy terms and promises as you
:25:01. > :25:05.approach the next election, the next European election which is equally
:25:05. > :25:08.relevant, what do you want? I want the Prime Minister to say in terms
:25:08. > :25:12.what he does want future ministers to have the power to settle our
:25:12. > :25:16.borders, to settle our immigration policy, to decide our welfare
:25:16. > :25:21.policy, to decide our tax and energy policy and our current relationship
:25:21. > :25:25.with Europe prevents all of those things. I hope he will say to all
:25:25. > :25:29.the people who voted UKIP that he wants them as part of his coalition,
:25:29. > :25:33.part of his army, because we need to unite to fight the European Union
:25:33. > :25:38.and we need to unite to fight the Federalist party is, so David
:25:38. > :25:42.Cameron I hope will be reaching out all voters who feel very strongly
:25:42. > :25:46.that the things they want on immigration, on tax, on benefits, on
:25:46. > :25:53.the kind of country they want to live in, are being thwarted by the
:25:53. > :25:59.European Union. Mr Redwood, and Cuba joining us. John Redwood, in Oxford.
:25:59. > :26:02.24 councils declared, 11th to come. We talked about UKIP, we talked
:26:02. > :26:06.about the Conservatives. We will come back to Labour in a moment. I
:26:06. > :26:10.want to think about the Lib Dems, because we haven't discussed their
:26:10. > :26:14.particular case for a while. Let's rejoin Jeremy, who will take us
:26:14. > :26:20.through the Lib Dem performance. Have a look at them at first because
:26:20. > :26:30.it is getting busier. We are seeing the blue that we started with being
:26:30. > :26:33.
:26:33. > :26:39.washed away and we have saw the show stunning result. We are looking at
:26:39. > :26:42.the Liberal Democrats and listening to the conversation in the studio is
:26:43. > :26:46.-- it is apparent that the Lib Dems' defence of their performances
:26:47. > :26:51.to say they have not dropped that many seats so far. Let's see if
:26:51. > :26:56.there is truth in that. If I put up on the graphics behind us, let me
:26:56. > :27:00.show you if I can change in key wards on 2009. We are talking about
:27:00. > :27:06.percentages, looking at the drop for the coalition parties particularly
:27:06. > :27:12.here. You can see that the Conservatives are down 9%. You have
:27:12. > :27:17.discussed the amazing rise for UKIP, up 17%. Labour up 8%. The
:27:17. > :27:21.Liberal Democrats, down 11%. In terms of the coalition partners
:27:21. > :27:26.here, the Conservatives getting punished a little bit less than the
:27:27. > :27:30.Liberal Democrats, down 11. The Greens are down one, others, -4.
:27:30. > :27:33.When you look at the sure it is not good for the Liberal Democrats but
:27:33. > :27:43.there is a line of defence. If you look at the number of seats they
:27:43. > :27:47.have lost, it is a different story. This is not coming in in a logical
:27:47. > :27:55.way, but Conservatives down 173. That will change as we go through
:27:55. > :27:58.the day. Labour up 149, the Lib Dems down minus 60. Far fewer Lib Dem
:27:58. > :28:02.seats shed so far than conservative, even though their drop in terms of
:28:02. > :28:06.their percentage of the vote is greater. What is the reason for
:28:06. > :28:11.that? Let's look at the Lib Dem seats and focus on the political
:28:11. > :28:16.make-up, how the parties are arranged. If you look at the Lib
:28:16. > :28:21.Dems, you see one thing absolutely clearly, which is this. In nearly
:28:21. > :28:24.all of their seats, 80%, the Conservatives are in second place in
:28:25. > :28:29.those Lib Dem seats. What has happened here is that in lots of Lib
:28:29. > :28:33.Dem seats, the Lib Dems have been weakened, they have been vulnerable,
:28:33. > :28:37.but nearly all times it is a Conservative who has challenged and
:28:37. > :28:39.these coalition partners are both hurting at this election. The
:28:39. > :28:44.Conservatives are putting up a less effective challenge and in some
:28:44. > :28:49.cases the Lib Dems are not losing the seat. That is why they are able
:28:49. > :28:59.to say the percentage has gone down but so far, our count of seats is
:28:59. > :29:04.
:29:04. > :29:08.looking more robust than you might who say the Lib Dems will be wiped
:29:08. > :29:12.out as a result of this, it is not the case. They are not going to be
:29:12. > :29:17.wiped out in local government or Westminster. What we are learning is
:29:17. > :29:21.that they can hold on to members of Parliament and councillors with far
:29:21. > :29:26.fewer votes in the country as a whole. That has implications. If
:29:26. > :29:31.they are seen as the fourth party of British politics rather than third,
:29:31. > :29:36.UKIP will compete for attention, they will compete for the claim to
:29:36. > :29:40.be a national party as well. It depends if you think the glass is
:29:40. > :29:45.half full or half empty. If you dream of the Liberal Democrats
:29:45. > :29:48.becoming the fourth in British politics which would replace Labour
:29:48. > :29:53.on the centre-left, it is not going to happen, but if you had a
:29:53. > :29:59.nightmare going into government is not -- is done to destroy you, it is
:29:59. > :30:06.clear it is not. Most Liberal Democrats are natural optimists.
:30:06. > :30:12.When I look at the UKIP vote share, remember a huge number of votes that
:30:12. > :30:17.the SDP and the Alliance racked up and one -- and one is virtually no
:30:17. > :30:19.seats. British politics is a cruel business and the key question in
:30:19. > :30:23.Westminster is can you have concentration of votes that enable
:30:23. > :30:28.you to win seats and I think on the basis of these results, we are
:30:28. > :30:35.pretty confident we will be doing reasonably well compared to where we
:30:35. > :30:39.start off in terms of seats at the next election. First past the post,
:30:39. > :30:44.it would be a disaster if you had proportional representing --
:30:44. > :30:54.representation. We would not have quite as many. Result the Isle of
:30:54. > :30:58.
:30:58. > :31:05.Wight. Look at the arrangements of the parties. The independents are
:31:05. > :31:11.the largest party. We don't know if that is a group of independents, or
:31:11. > :31:15.if they are different people who have to work together. UKIP fielded
:31:15. > :31:23.29 candidates and have picked up two. Let's look at what happened
:31:24. > :31:33.overnight. I am sure we will find out more about these ten
:31:34. > :31:34.
:31:34. > :31:37.independents later. The Lib Dems have also taken a hit. That is
:31:38. > :31:42.strange, because the Lib Dems used to dominate in this part of the
:31:42. > :31:46.world. They had 70% of the councillors in the Isle of Wight not
:31:46. > :31:53.long ago. That result will need a bit more unpicking. Michael Gove,
:31:53. > :31:57.what do you think of that? I don't know the Isle of Wight in the detail
:31:57. > :32:02.that that beautiful part of England deserves, so I don't know what the
:32:02. > :32:06.independents who have won have as their visible issue. I suspect there
:32:06. > :32:11.are factors there. It is not great for the Lib Dems either. You have
:32:11. > :32:14.traditionally been strong in the Isle of Wight. We have. The
:32:14. > :32:21.independents have clearly done very well against us. But like all
:32:21. > :32:31.islands, it is a very particular ecology. Nick, we will be talking
:32:31. > :32:32.
:32:32. > :32:38.more in a minute or two. But at this stage, what are we now looking out
:32:38. > :32:42.for? With ten to go, we are moving towards people making firmer
:32:42. > :32:46.conclusions that we were making this morning, because we are well over
:32:46. > :32:51.half way now. Are we certain that the Lib Dem performance has been
:32:51. > :32:57.disappointing? Yes, but it is a glass half full or glass half empty
:32:57. > :33:02.question. Certainly disappointing, because the pain does go on. They
:33:02. > :33:05.are losing, but not at the same speed that they were last year or
:33:05. > :33:14.the year before. For Labour, the news looks rosier than it did
:33:14. > :33:19.overnight. The results we were just talking about in knocking on show --
:33:19. > :33:26.Nottinghamshire and Lancashire, they are not quite there, these are
:33:26. > :33:30.places where they did better in 2005. Tony Blair, opposed the Iraq
:33:30. > :33:33.war, struggled to win that general election and they are still not
:33:33. > :33:37.matching up performance. On the other hand, it was terrible under
:33:37. > :33:40.Gordon Brown and they have taken shrines in those areas. But they
:33:40. > :33:46.will worry about the parts of the country like Lincolnshire and Essex
:33:46. > :33:50.where we have synagogue in the Labour vote. Actually, in Essex and
:33:50. > :33:59.Lincolnshire, yes we have not won the county, but we have done well in
:33:59. > :34:05.Harlow and Lincoln. So you need to go below the surface to see how
:34:05. > :34:13.these results matter for Westminster. The test we set
:34:13. > :34:17.ourselves was 200 gains in the 45 battle seats. I hope we have made
:34:17. > :34:23.progress in most of those. Let's bring in the Conservative MP Adam
:34:23. > :34:33.are free. You have been critical in some ways in the weather Cameron
:34:33. > :34:39.government is run -- the way the camera government is run. Does that
:34:39. > :34:43.impact on things like this? I have been looking at the future of our
:34:43. > :34:47.country and the future nature of government, because government is
:34:47. > :34:53.too big. But overall today, I have a feeling of sadness because we have
:34:53. > :34:57.lost councillors and the activists have worked hard. And more than
:34:57. > :35:01.that, the British people will have Labour run councils and councils
:35:01. > :35:07.with no overall control, which means that council tax will go up and
:35:07. > :35:12.services will go down. Why has your party been so vulnerable to UKIP
:35:12. > :35:17.appeal? There is no getting away from this. People are just fed up
:35:17. > :35:20.with the political class. And so am I, to a certain degree. There is a
:35:20. > :35:26.Westminster bubble. Everything sounds the same, and people do not
:35:26. > :35:30.feel that what is said is credible. In coalition government, we need to
:35:30. > :35:35.take action so that people go actually, they didn't just say that,
:35:35. > :35:39.they did it. What is David Cameron saying that is not credible? This is
:35:39. > :35:44.not about David Cameron, it is a plague on all our houses, if you
:35:44. > :35:48.like. In Italy, people were so desperate that they voted for a
:35:48. > :35:52.comedian. So in the UK, it is not surprising that when the political
:35:52. > :35:56.class has not connected with the public, we are suffering in this
:35:56. > :36:00.way. It is not the Conservative politicians who will suffer, it is
:36:00. > :36:06.the British people, because without a holy Conservative government, we
:36:06. > :36:10.will not get the Britain we want. am not clear on what that means in
:36:10. > :36:15.terms of practical changes? We have some great immigration policies. We
:36:15. > :36:19.have a brilliant position on the European Union which says we will
:36:19. > :36:23.renegotiate and then give people a say. But even when we say those
:36:23. > :36:27.things, people think, whatever. I have been on the ground around the
:36:27. > :36:33.country, and people don't really believe what the political elite are
:36:33. > :36:35.saying. So we have to reconnect. In some ways, you have to get rid of
:36:35. > :36:44.the spin doctors and talk to people directly. Does that make sense,
:36:44. > :36:49.Michael Gove? Adam is right to say the Conservative position on
:36:49. > :36:52.immigration is effective. We reduced immigration by a third. He is also
:36:52. > :37:01.right that David Cameron has been effective on the European stage. And
:37:01. > :37:03.a third point which is well made is that the political classes do
:37:03. > :37:09.sometimes seem like pasteurised cheese on the cheese board, and UKIP
:37:09. > :37:17.is the rich more ripe, stinking alternative. And people think they
:37:17. > :37:20.would not mind a slice of that! is the stink that may bother people.
:37:20. > :37:27.That is sometimes how I like my cheese, although it is not good for
:37:27. > :37:30.my waistline. The thing is, Nigel Farage is a very effective and
:37:30. > :37:36.charismatic figure. He can articulate the anxieties that people
:37:36. > :37:39.feel and their exasperation with the political parties. What Adam says
:37:39. > :37:49.has a lot of merit. Let's bring in the former leader of Lancashire
:37:49. > :37:54.Council. I am still the leader of Lancashire Council! That is a very
:37:54. > :38:00.important correction which I am happy to go along with. Tell us what
:38:00. > :38:08.happened. How did your party for? lost overall control, but no party
:38:08. > :38:14.has overall control. And why did that happen? Because the voters in
:38:14. > :38:17.Lancashire voted more for other parties than my party. Yes, thank
:38:17. > :38:25.you very much for pointing that out. I just wonder whether you have any
:38:25. > :38:29.thoughts on why that might have happened? I have answered the
:38:29. > :38:35.question. There can't be any more straightforward answer. What are you
:38:35. > :38:39.trying to get me to say? I am not trying to get you to say anything.
:38:39. > :38:44.Why were people not voting for you this time who were not voting for
:38:44. > :38:51.you before? What are they telling you? That is a different question
:38:51. > :38:56.from what you asked before. I can answer that. We fought a campaign on
:38:56. > :39:00.our local record as to what we have achieved over the last four years.
:39:00. > :39:03.But I suspect that many voters in Lancashire have looked wider than
:39:03. > :39:08.what has been happening in Lancashire when they decided how to
:39:08. > :39:11.vote. That gets us into an interesting area. So if I can ask
:39:11. > :39:18.the question in a different way, what are the factors which were an
:39:18. > :39:25.helpful to you in this election? don't know the answer to that. You
:39:25. > :39:35.need to ask people who voted as to why they voted the way they did. I
:39:35. > :39:35.
:39:35. > :39:45.can only tell you what we campaigned on. Thank you very much. Do we have
:39:45. > :39:47.
:39:47. > :39:51.some more results in, Emily? We do. The ones which have just slipped in
:39:51. > :39:54.our Oxfordshire, which has gone into no overall control from the
:39:54. > :40:00.Conservatives, and we also understand that West Sussex has some
:40:00. > :40:08.interesting results. We can't go into the full result for Oxfordshire
:40:08. > :40:18.yet. For now, let me bring you this one. They are still counting, but we
:40:18. > :40:21.
:40:21. > :40:25.know that it has been safely held by the Conservatives. It is a big
:40:25. > :40:35.result for UKIP here. They did not have any representation here last
:40:35. > :40:35.
:40:35. > :40:45.time round. This was a place where the coalition partners were fighting
:40:45. > :40:51.
:40:51. > :40:56.it out, and the Lib Dems came off considerably worse. Remember, we are
:40:56. > :41:03.a first past the post system, so this does not have much resonance in
:41:03. > :41:10.seats, but look at this, UKIP pushing the Lib Dems and Labour into
:41:10. > :41:15.third place. That is a dramatic result for UKIP in a part of the
:41:15. > :41:19.world where they have not previously been. We have talked a lot about the
:41:19. > :41:23.UKIP surge today. We should also talk about a party who in the past
:41:23. > :41:29.have been in a position where they have been threatening lots of the
:41:29. > :41:33.others. And they picked up one or two macro seats as well. We are
:41:33. > :41:37.talking about the Greens, of course. Natalie Bennett became
:41:37. > :41:43.leader of the Green party about six months ago. How have you done?
:41:43. > :41:48.have had a very good day. We have a net gain of 11 seats. We won our
:41:48. > :41:52.first two macro seats in Warwickshire and two macro seats in
:41:52. > :41:56.Worcestershire. Two macro seats on Essex county council, our first seat
:41:56. > :42:02.in Kent. We have doubled are present nation on Bristol Council. And I
:42:02. > :42:06.have just heard we have our first set on Surrey county council. Our
:42:06. > :42:11.aim was to spread around the country and reach out beyond our heartland
:42:11. > :42:14.areas like Brighton Pavilion, where we hold the parliament receipt.
:42:14. > :42:19.Oxford and Norwich are our traditional strongholds, and we have
:42:19. > :42:22.spread around the country. So for viewers wondering whether you have
:42:22. > :42:26.achieved your goals and performed according to your expectations, what
:42:26. > :42:31.would you say? You could look at the tape of me on the Daily Politics a
:42:31. > :42:36.few days ago saying that I was expecting gains of double figures,
:42:36. > :42:40.so gains of 11 fits what we expected. What happened in Norfolk,
:42:40. > :42:50.where you lost three seats? I have not looked at the detail, but we
:42:50. > :42:56.have seen a very varied picture in different parts of Norfolk. Local
:42:56. > :43:00.issues may have arisen. Which result were you most proud of? I would have
:43:00. > :43:05.to put the West Midlands together. Two years ago, we had three
:43:05. > :43:12.councillors in the West Midlands. I think we are now up to 19
:43:12. > :43:17.councillors on seven councils. It is very much a growth area for us.
:43:17. > :43:20.old enough to go back to 1989, when there was talk of the Greens really
:43:20. > :43:25.becoming a major force in politics in Britain in terms of
:43:25. > :43:30.representation. In the European elections, there was certainly a
:43:30. > :43:37.surge that. It has not quite happened since then. Now that UKIP
:43:37. > :43:41.are on the march, has that chance for you to step in disappeared?
:43:41. > :43:45.much not. We have seen a breakup of the traditional two macro or three
:43:46. > :43:52.party system in Britain. Fewer and fewer people regard themselves as a
:43:52. > :43:56.lifetime Tory, Labour or Lib Dem supporter. People are looking at the
:43:56. > :44:01.policies and voting that way. That will throw into at question our
:44:01. > :44:09.first past the post electoral system. That is another topic
:44:09. > :44:12.altogether. Thank you for joining With me is down James, -- Diane
:44:12. > :44:20.Jones, who stood for UKIP in Eastleigh. You have been
:44:20. > :44:24.celebrating? Phenomenal result. A lot of people are very tired. I am
:44:24. > :44:30.sure that applies to other party activists as well. But at the
:44:30. > :44:34.moment, it is just positive after positive. The Conservatives lost in
:44:34. > :44:38.Cambridgeshire. I will ask Emily about that in a moment. One of the
:44:38. > :44:45.issues today which Mr Farage was discussing earlier with us is to do
:44:45. > :44:49.with credibility and policy. People are possibly, after this result,
:44:49. > :44:55.going to be even more keen to take a magnifying glass to some of the
:44:55. > :44:58.things you are talking about, like immigration policy. Are you ready to
:44:58. > :45:04.be offering the kind of comprehensive list the platform that
:45:04. > :45:08.can withstand the kind of scrutiny that these parties are used to?
:45:08. > :45:12.Firstly, it will be a two-way street. We have been subjected to a
:45:12. > :45:18.huge amount of Puccini over the last few weeks, along with all the
:45:18. > :45:22.insults. But we have been the only party to issue a fresh national
:45:22. > :45:26.manifesto. That is obviously in development and we are happy to keep
:45:26. > :45:30.looking at that. All of our candidates were then able to use
:45:30. > :45:35.that manifesto and translated into a local one, and the results speak for
:45:35. > :45:45.themselves. That is why the candidates have won on a local
:45:45. > :45:50.basis. Why is your party saying UKIP have a black hole in their plans?
:45:50. > :45:57.Well, as Diane said, there is increased scrutiny of UKIP's
:45:57. > :46:00.platform, and UKIP have been saying they want to increase spending on
:46:00. > :46:05.defence and also lower taxation. Initial scrutiny of the UKIP
:46:05. > :46:09.position is that it didn't add up. But of course, as Diane says, when
:46:09. > :46:12.we come to the election, it will have its policy platform refined and
:46:12. > :46:20.they will come under greater scrutiny and we will debate with
:46:20. > :46:23.Diane as we do in a civilised fashion. We will pause there for a
:46:23. > :46:27.second. This is an important moment for us where we imagine that these
:46:27. > :46:33.elections have been taking place in all areas, because that will really
:46:33. > :46:36.give us a sense of where these shares are. Yes, a big moment now,
:46:36. > :46:46.where we are ready, with the map looking a lot busier than a few
:46:46. > :46:47.
:46:47. > :46:50.share, the share we believe our parties would have got, had the
:46:50. > :46:54.local elections in certain areas been spread out across the whole
:46:54. > :47:04.country. This is what we believe the parties would have got in the BBC's
:47:04. > :47:11.
:47:11. > :47:15.to go back to 1997, a period of Labour opposition to see them
:47:15. > :47:20.scoring around there but even then they were not that low. The
:47:20. > :47:25.Conservatives on 25% of the worst ever Conservative share in a local
:47:25. > :47:30.election since we started doing projected national share, which was
:47:30. > :47:35.1982. UKIP, the first time they have had a column in this projected
:47:35. > :47:40.national share, showing here, so the purple column is 23%. You have
:47:40. > :47:44.talked about how sensational that is. Here, we have the Liberal
:47:44. > :47:46.Democrats on 14%. This showing for the Liberal Democrats
:47:46. > :47:51.notwithstanding the reasons we discussed why they have held onto
:47:51. > :47:57.some of their council seats where they were threatened, this showing
:47:57. > :48:04.of 40% is the worst Liberal Democrat showing ever in a local election. --
:48:04. > :48:09.14%. Those are the percentages if it was to be held across the country,
:48:09. > :48:13.29% for Labour, poor. 25% for the Conservatives, record low
:48:13. > :48:18.territory. 23% for UKIP, a stunning arrival in the top four for them.
:48:18. > :48:25.Pushed into fourth place, 14% for the Liberal Democrats. You will
:48:25. > :48:28.notice have we ever had, we can't remember a time when the three main
:48:28. > :48:33.parties were pushed, all of them, below 30% in a local election. I
:48:33. > :48:37.will give you some history, so we get a sense of how this fits into
:48:37. > :48:41.previous local election performances. We have UKIP out of
:48:41. > :48:45.this because they do not have a back story and these local elections. It
:48:45. > :48:52.is not possible to do a graph for them. Just with the Conservatives,
:48:52. > :48:57.Labour and Lib Dems. In 2006, Labour had won their third election.
:48:57. > :49:00.Conservatives, 36%, this is in local elections. Lib Dems, 10% behind and
:49:00. > :49:09.Labour starting to show a lot of the attrition that you get in local
:49:09. > :49:12.government if you have won three elections, 24%. Then, we go to the
:49:12. > :49:16.year these county seats and council seats were last fought, 2009. Very
:49:16. > :49:20.significant, Gordon Brown scored only 20% in those elections and the
:49:20. > :49:25.Conservatives lead on 35%. This is the comparison year for the purposes
:49:25. > :49:30.of these council elections. Let's follow the sequence. You see under
:49:30. > :49:34.Ed Miliband the recovery starting for Labour and you can see 38%, 31%,
:49:34. > :49:39.Labour with a substantial lead over the Conservatives and the Liberal
:49:39. > :49:43.Democrats starting to grind away a bit down at the bottom because of
:49:43. > :49:47.the presume that -- should be because of the fallout from
:49:47. > :49:51.coalition government. Look at the extraordinary effect when I input
:49:51. > :49:56.the results from these local elections. All the main parties are
:49:56. > :50:01.given below 30%. Labour are leading, they will cling to that but only by
:50:01. > :50:05.4% over the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are having as I mentioned
:50:05. > :50:11.earlier a very poor night and day, driven lower than they ever have
:50:11. > :50:17.been as the Liberal Democrats. We will untangle as the hours and days
:50:17. > :50:21.go on, work out exactly how much voters have been taken from which
:50:21. > :50:25.party by UKIP, but this extraordinary election has seen the
:50:25. > :50:35.pattern of the poll change. Labour are still in the lead, not by much
:50:35. > :50:37.
:50:37. > :50:43.John Curtice, who has been crunching the numbers all day for us to come
:50:43. > :50:46.up with this. First of all, Jeremy there stressing what a startling
:50:47. > :50:52.range of figures there is an obviously within the context of UKIP
:50:52. > :50:57.was Mac performance, by the way Staffordshire has come in, the
:50:57. > :51:02.Conservatives are holding onto that. Talk is through, that is
:51:02. > :51:06.remarkable, we will come to it. John, your thoughts on that share?
:51:06. > :51:10.think in a sense it underlines the story we have been telling the story
:51:10. > :51:14.since one o'clock in the morning, that is that UKIP are putting in a
:51:14. > :51:17.remarkable performance and inevitably, given that UKIP are in
:51:18. > :51:23.our projected national share at around 23%, it was going to be very
:51:23. > :51:27.difficult for any party to pass the 30% mark. The fascinating question
:51:27. > :51:31.is, will this proved to be a blip, an exception, or do we have to
:51:31. > :51:34.accept that the days of 2-party politics in Britain which arguably
:51:34. > :51:38.were already beginning to look a bit thin now that we have a coalition in
:51:38. > :51:41.charge at Westminster rather than a single party government, do we now
:51:41. > :51:46.have to accept those days are over and that we are now looking at a
:51:46. > :51:56.very different kind of politics for the future of Britain than we saw in
:51:56. > :51:58.
:51:58. > :52:01.the past? As Nick has emphasised, we don't know the answer to that
:52:01. > :52:04.question yet but we are very clear it is a central question to be asked
:52:04. > :52:10.about what happens in the weeks and months ahead. What is your take,
:52:10. > :52:15.Nick? It is for party politics. We are likely to get for party politics
:52:15. > :52:19.when the European elections happen, UKIP have done impressively. We
:52:19. > :52:25.simply do not know whether that will feed through to a general election.
:52:25. > :52:29.Clearly, the system makes that very hard for UKIP. Much as the Liberal
:52:29. > :52:34.party as old used to be, much as the SDP, much as the Liberal Democrats
:52:34. > :52:39.have been over the years, if you spread your support thin as UKIP are
:52:39. > :52:43.doing, roughly evenly right across the country, you can get hundreds,
:52:43. > :52:47.thousands of votes and still get no seats at all in a Westminster
:52:47. > :52:52.election but what this result will signal is a desperate search from
:52:52. > :52:57.other political leaders of the established parties for the formula
:52:57. > :53:03.that reconnects with those people, reconnects with UKIP supporters, who
:53:03. > :53:08.have given them all a bloody nose. Here in the studio, Lord Newby, I
:53:08. > :53:14.will start at the bottom of that table. 14%, Jeremy really underlined
:53:14. > :53:18.how dire that was. Do you accept the figure? I accept the figure. That is
:53:18. > :53:21.the figure. It is clear what has happened to our vote. It has
:53:21. > :53:26.happened since we went into government. We have stopped being
:53:26. > :53:30.the party of protest. That is reflected in the polls and reflected
:53:31. > :53:35.here. What can you do about that? What we are doing is we are digging
:53:35. > :53:39.in where we have got MPs, where we have got counsellors, working very
:53:39. > :53:42.hard. What we are going to be doing as we get towards the general
:53:42. > :53:46.election is working very hard to explain what we have been able to
:53:46. > :53:49.achieve in government, raising the tax threshold, the pupil premium,
:53:49. > :53:55.the whole raft of things that have benefited ordinary people because
:53:55. > :53:58.the Lib Dems are in government. That is the job of all politicians, to
:53:58. > :54:03.explain their policies, like they are effective and why we have been
:54:03. > :54:07.effective. We have a vast number of votes as Liberal Democrats from
:54:07. > :54:11.people who were fed up with Tony Blair about the Iraq war, we got
:54:11. > :54:16.people who were fed up with Gordon Brown because they thought he was
:54:16. > :54:20.lacklustre. Those reasons that have gone. We have got to make our case
:54:20. > :54:24.is a party of government and we are in the process of doing it. It was
:54:24. > :54:28.inevitably going to take time and be hard going. You have a couple of
:54:28. > :54:35.years to make the case in a better way? Absolutely, we are focused on
:54:35. > :54:38.that. It will be on the basis of specific things that we can say to
:54:39. > :54:41.people we have achieved this would not have happened without the
:54:41. > :54:46.Liberal Democrats and if you vote for us next time you will get more
:54:46. > :54:51.than that. 29% of the national share, Tom, you are not at the kind
:54:51. > :54:58.of level, anything near it, where you can look with confidence to
:54:58. > :55:01.2015? Take success when we can bank on it. We have got the highest
:55:01. > :55:04.national share. There was a discussion amongst some of the
:55:04. > :55:10.academics before polling day about whether this set of elections would
:55:10. > :55:13.give is that projection, but we have to accept as soon as they're four
:55:14. > :55:17.parties in, everybody's share is going to go down. I am not sure that
:55:17. > :55:22.is a useful tool of projecting what will happen that in the future. I
:55:22. > :55:28.imagine the results at a general election will be different to that.
:55:28. > :55:33.It is an interesting message and... A snapshot, not a forecast or
:55:33. > :55:39.prediction. Michael Gove, 25% on that projected share. What does that
:55:39. > :55:42.tell you? It is an interesting arithmetical exercise and it gives
:55:42. > :55:47.Professor John Curtice and lots of clever professors a chance to
:55:47. > :55:51.speculate, but the surprising thing is I agree with Tom. Look at the
:55:51. > :55:56.results on the ground. Just before we had this discussion about future
:55:56. > :56:00.projections, we had a real result from Staffordshire. Earlier this
:56:00. > :56:03.week I went to Newcastle under Lyme, so did Ed Miliband. It was going to
:56:03. > :56:07.be the battleground area that Labour were expecting to win. The
:56:07. > :56:10.Conservatives have held it with seats still to declare. The truth
:56:10. > :56:16.is, the Conservatives and the coalition parties, have been
:56:16. > :56:20.surprisingly resilient and there has been no roof towards Labour. I
:56:20. > :56:24.mentioned just after two o'clock, Michael foot. When he was leader of
:56:24. > :56:29.the opposition in 1981, Labour won Staffordshire, Cumbria and
:56:29. > :56:32.Lancashire. They are not winning them now. If people are voting UKIP
:56:32. > :56:37.because they express a sense of exasperation with the government, I
:56:37. > :56:39.can understand that but what is really striking is that no one is
:56:39. > :56:44.voting for Labour in anything like the numbers they need to have in
:56:44. > :56:50.order to be on course for government. Tom is a fighter and put
:56:50. > :56:58.a good spin on it, I am sure, but he must be disappointed. We are into
:56:59. > :57:02.the spin. When Michael foot was leader, we had not got the unitary
:57:02. > :57:06.authorities so it is a bogus comparison. In Staffordshire, we
:57:06. > :57:10.knew it would be hard going for us to win Staffordshire. We wanted to
:57:10. > :57:14.win it but if you drill down into those figures again, look at cannot,
:57:14. > :57:20.where there is 11% swing from the Conservatives to Labour that would
:57:20. > :57:24.deliver a Labour MP in 2015, so Newcastle under Lyme already has a
:57:24. > :57:30.Labour MP, so let's hope... Here's a nice guy, I am afraid he is not
:57:30. > :57:35.going to be a Labour MP at the next election. The Conservatives are
:57:35. > :57:40.doing so well in Staffordshire. you are banking on defeating him at
:57:40. > :57:46.the next election you need another argument. If I can just override,
:57:46. > :57:51.look at the UKIP result, 23%. I came in with just short of 20% in
:57:51. > :57:56.Eastleigh, South Shields last night just short of 20% -- 24%, Corby,
:57:56. > :58:02.22%, we are doing very well and that is reflecting what will happen in
:58:02. > :58:05.2015. Nigel made a very good point, which is we have yet to find --
:58:05. > :58:08.fight true marginal and when that happens that sort of result and if
:58:08. > :58:12.we take the result from the local council elections, that really does
:58:12. > :58:16.give us a chance. No one is saying that UKIP is necessarily going to
:58:16. > :58:22.field the next full government but what we are is now a very, very
:58:22. > :58:25.major player. Men are going to pause. Who do you think would be a
:58:25. > :58:32.better prime ministers standing up for Great Britain, Ed Miliband or
:58:32. > :58:41.David Cameron? Neither, unfortunately. You have to choose
:58:41. > :58:46.one. No.Nigel gives a straight answer to a straight question.
:58:46. > :58:50.Neither is the answer. We are going to pause and take a break. If you