:00:31. > :00:35.Well, hello. Very good evening. It's 5.00pm, and welcome back to
:00:35. > :00:39.the BBC's election centre. We have had nearly all the results in. We
:00:39. > :00:43.have had 32 councils declared with just three to go. It's the biggest
:00:43. > :00:47.electoral test of the year, no question, and the biggest smiles
:00:47. > :00:51.have been in the UKIP cap for obvious reasons, given the gains
:00:51. > :00:56.they've enjoyed. Their leader Nigel Farage has been celebrating with a
:00:56. > :00:59.big surge in UKIP support, over 130 new councilors, the last count, and
:00:59. > :01:03.he said his party will be changing the face of British politics -
:01:03. > :01:09.that's the claim, anyway. UKIP's surge has been largely at the
:01:09. > :01:13.expense of the Conservatives. They have lost over 300 councillors, and
:01:13. > :01:17.they fail to retain control of ten councils, but they have held onto
:01:17. > :01:20.17 other councils, so by all means not bad news for them. David
:01:20. > :01:23.Cameron has said today that he'll be working hard to win voters back
:01:24. > :01:28.after this result. The day started very well for
:01:28. > :01:31.Labour with a win in the South Shields parliamentary by-election,
:01:31. > :01:36.and they have had other successes in council elections in Derbyshire,
:01:36. > :01:40.but like everyone else, they too have been hit by UKIP's surge in
:01:40. > :01:46.popularity. They're up, but the experts say by perhaps less than
:01:46. > :01:50.they'd hoped. Well, now, it seems a good moment
:01:50. > :01:54.for us to have a look at the counts that are still going on because,
:01:54. > :01:59.believe it or not, even at this late stage in the day, there are
:01:59. > :02:03.still things which are unresolved, and one of them is the one election
:02:03. > :02:08.taking place outside England, and that is in Anglesey in North Wales
:02:08. > :02:11.where there is an election taking place there for very special
:02:11. > :02:15.reasons because they have been in special measures. They have been
:02:15. > :02:19.run by basically commissioners set up from Government in Cardiff. Why?
:02:19. > :02:22.Because that council has been in a mess, and there has been lots of
:02:22. > :02:25.in-fighting and a bit of gridlock. They're having this election -
:02:25. > :02:29.should have been last year, but the election taking place this year.
:02:29. > :02:34.That is still not fully done, so we'll be keeping tabs on Anglesey.
:02:34. > :02:38.Also still going on - well, although actually they do look as
:02:38. > :02:41.though their business is done in Doncaster, don't they? But that is
:02:42. > :02:45.the second of the mayoral contest we were talking about. We have
:02:45. > :02:49.already had North Tyneside declared overnight, but Doncaster there -
:02:49. > :02:53.they seem to be taking a break, and I think their work is probably done,
:02:53. > :03:00.so hopefully, fingers crossed, after eight hours, I think, of
:03:00. > :03:04.counting in Doncaster, after the second round run-off between the
:03:04. > :03:08.Labour candidate, mayor Peter Davis standing as an independent, we may
:03:08. > :03:12.get a result in that Doncaster mayoral contest, so stay with us
:03:12. > :03:16.for that. With me - we have had a bit of a change in the studio again.
:03:16. > :03:22.Nick Robinson is back with us. Good to have you with us. Chris Grayling
:03:22. > :03:25.for the Conservatives and we have Ed Davey from the Lib Dems. Thank
:03:25. > :03:29.you very much indeed for coming in. We'll be back in a second because
:03:29. > :03:32.we want a quick update of the news with Jane.
:03:32. > :03:36.Thanks, good afternoon, again. David Cameron says the
:03:36. > :03:42.Conservatives must show respect for voters backing UKIP, whose members
:03:42. > :03:45.he wants dismissed as fruit cakes. The UK Independence Party has
:03:45. > :03:51.enjoyed unprecedented success in local elections, gaining more than
:03:51. > :03:56.130 seat social security far - that mainly at the expense of the Tories,
:03:56. > :03:59.who are down 320 and were pushed into fifth place in the South
:03:59. > :04:02.Shields by-election. The latest details come from our political
:04:02. > :04:05.correspondent, Ian Watson. CHEERING AND APPLAUSE
:04:06. > :04:08.They still don't control a single council, yet UKIP were poping the
:04:08. > :04:13.corks. This is why - local authorities can't bring Britain out
:04:13. > :04:18.of the EU, so with around a quarter of the vote and more than a hundred
:04:18. > :04:21.councillors, they say this is proof that they have broadened their
:04:21. > :04:28.appeal. We have been abused by everybody, the entire establishment.
:04:28. > :04:37.Know they're shocked and stunned we're getting over 25% of the vote.
:04:37. > :04:41.That is real change in British politics. They're now the official
:04:41. > :04:45.opposition in Lincolnshire and Norfolk. Today David Cameron's tone
:04:45. > :04:49.towards UKIP was less hostil. no good insulting a political party
:04:49. > :04:53.people have chosen to vote for. Of course they should be subject - and
:04:53. > :04:56.they will be subject to proper scrutiny of their policies and
:04:56. > :05:00.plans, but we need to show respect for people who have taken the
:05:00. > :05:05.choice to support this party, and we're going to work really hard to
:05:05. > :05:09.win them back. The Conservatives were braced for big losses at these
:05:09. > :05:13.election, but given the strict choice, they'd rather lose out to
:05:13. > :05:19.UKIP than Labour. Ed Miliband's party easily held the parliamentary
:05:19. > :05:22.seat of South Shields and won the mayoral contest in nearby North
:05:23. > :05:26.Tyneside but despite some victories in less traditional territory too,
:05:26. > :05:32.Labour weren't performing as well as they did in the County Council
:05:32. > :05:36.elections than they did in 2005 when they won the general election.
:05:36. > :05:40.The Labour leader was in Hastings today to take his battle to the
:05:40. > :05:43.south. I recognise going around during this campaign the vote for
:05:43. > :05:49.UKIP - the two-thirds who didn't vote - there are still lots of
:05:49. > :05:55.people saying can anyone turn this country around? I believe we can.
:05:55. > :05:58.The leader sees UKIP as a passing party of protest. People might be
:05:58. > :06:01.attracted to the simple answers the UK Independence Party is offering
:06:01. > :06:08.to deal with this country's complex problem, but I don't think they
:06:08. > :06:12.have the answers to the dilemmas we face as a country. I believe the
:06:12. > :06:16.Liberal Democrats do. UKIP were recently described by senior
:06:16. > :06:19.Conservatives as clowns but today Nigel Farage was able to celebrate
:06:19. > :06:23.being taken more seriously all- around.
:06:23. > :06:28.In other news, the jury in the trial of Mark Bridger, who is
:06:28. > :06:31.accused of murdering April Jones, has heard a statement from the
:06:31. > :06:35.five-year-old's mother. Coral Jones Coral said she initially didn't let
:06:35. > :06:40.her daughter play outside on the night she went missing but relented
:06:40. > :06:46.after April had a little tantrum. Mark Bridger denies abduction and
:06:46. > :06:51.murder. Our correspondent is following the case at Mould Crown
:06:51. > :06:55.Court. Bring us up to date with everything the jury has heard and
:06:55. > :06:59.seen today. The raw emotion of the statement from April's mother
:06:59. > :07:04.really came through even though it was just words read out by a lawyer.
:07:04. > :07:09.She spoke of her panic when April disappeared, how she searched
:07:09. > :07:13.everwhere, even in the bins. The jury were shown CCTV footage. We
:07:13. > :07:17.can show you some of that now. This is an image of April taken from the
:07:17. > :07:21.leisure centre just less than two hours before she disappeared. It's
:07:21. > :07:26.one of the last images ever recorded of her. The jury were also
:07:26. > :07:29.shown some footage of Mark Bridger the day after April had disappeared
:07:29. > :07:33.walking his dog. This is taken from a police helicopter. The
:07:33. > :07:36.prosecution say it's strange that he didn't look up at that
:07:36. > :07:39.helicopter when everyone in the town was looking for April. He
:07:40. > :07:43.seemed to have other matters on his mind, they say. This case will
:07:43. > :07:46.resume on Tuesday with evidence from the child that was playing
:07:46. > :07:52.with April when she was allegedly abducted. Jane?
:07:52. > :07:57.John, thank you. The Royal Bank of Scotland returned
:07:57. > :08:02.to profit in the first quarter of this year. RBS, which is more than
:08:03. > :08:07.80% owned by the taxpayer, made a pretax profit of �826 million. That
:08:07. > :08:10.compares to a loss of �1.5 billion in the same period last year. The
:08:10. > :08:19.chairman of RBS, Sir Phillip Hampton, says the bank should be
:08:19. > :08:24.ready for a return to the private Those are some of the main stories
:08:24. > :08:34.today. Now let's return to the team at Westminster for the latest on
:08:34. > :08:38.
:08:39. > :08:41.Well, thank you very much, Jane, and welcome back to our election
:08:41. > :08:47.studio here in Westminster where we have been monitoring these events
:08:47. > :08:49.coming in all day. Some of them, of course, took place overnight. We
:08:49. > :08:53.were discussing them this morning. We have had a flood of results this
:08:53. > :08:58.afternoon. We've got three to come in, and at this point I am going to
:08:58. > :09:01.ask Nick for his take on where we are. What would you say? What has
:09:01. > :09:03.changed I think as a result of these elections is how most people
:09:03. > :09:08.will look at UKIP. Before today there were plenty of people who
:09:08. > :09:11.said, look, it's a pressure group. It's not a political party. It's
:09:11. > :09:14.now putting down roots in communities throughout England, not
:09:14. > :09:19.the UK. We're largely getting elections in England today. They
:09:19. > :09:22.said it was merely a temporary home for disgruntled Tories. We know
:09:22. > :09:26.they're willing votes not just from ex-Tories but from Labour and
:09:26. > :09:29.Liberal Democrats too. They said they only matter in European
:09:29. > :09:34.elections. This is a local election, and they sure as hell matter today.
:09:34. > :09:39.What we don't know is how durable it is. Nobody can possibly know
:09:39. > :09:44.that but we now know the gentlemen in front of us who represent the
:09:44. > :09:47.three big established parties are now having to look at how life in a
:09:47. > :09:51.four-party electoral world might mean. I think you'll see instant
:09:51. > :09:53.reactions from all of them. The Prime Minister in the Queen's
:09:54. > :09:57.Speech will react. The focus, I am told, will be immigration I think
:09:57. > :10:01.the Labour Party will focus on how they reconnect. The Liberal
:10:01. > :10:04.Democrats too will have to angst away at how they reconnect with the
:10:04. > :10:08.sort of protest vote as they once naturally got. Interesting. We'll
:10:08. > :10:12.discuss that in a second with our guests, but I think it's a good
:10:12. > :10:14.moment for Emily to take us through what we have had and are still
:10:14. > :10:18.waiting for. We'll still got two councils to
:10:18. > :10:21.hear from, but if you have just joined us, let me show you the
:10:21. > :10:24.scoreboard picture of the day so far. Most of these are comfortable
:10:24. > :10:29.Conservative areas of the country, the south, the south-west. It's not
:10:29. > :10:33.surprising to see that most of the councillors remain Conservative -
:10:33. > :10:37.1,076, but here are the losses. They have taken a hit of 320
:10:37. > :10:42.tonight. Labour pushing forward in second place with 433. They've made
:10:42. > :10:45.gains of 260. Some will say that's not the gains that they were really
:10:45. > :10:49.looking for. They failed to take back a couple of key targets they
:10:49. > :10:54.would have liked to see. The Lib Dems - don't forget, now a party of
:10:54. > :10:59.Government with the Conservatives on 338 - they have taken a hit too
:10:59. > :11:04.tonight - maybe not as bad as the one they have taken at local level
:11:04. > :11:07.last year, but still 106. UKIP, the big story of the night, now sitting
:11:07. > :11:11.on 144. That's probably three times what they imagined at one stage
:11:12. > :11:17.they could ever take here - gains of 136. A good night for the Greens
:11:17. > :11:22.who have added on more modest gains, but still on 22. In others I can
:11:22. > :11:26.just show you briefly - you'll see some of the residents and so on.
:11:26. > :11:30.The BNP have lost the three seats they held in 2009. What does that
:11:30. > :11:35.mean for councils themselves? The Conservatives sitting on 17, but
:11:35. > :11:38.they have lost ten. They have lost control of ten councils tonight.
:11:38. > :11:42.Two of those have gone Labour, and eight of those have gone into no
:11:42. > :11:50.overall control. Let's have a look at the gains and losses - just
:11:50. > :11:55.losses for the Conservatives. These cities all into no overall control.
:11:55. > :12:02.This is the one council that the Labour Party have taken from the
:12:02. > :12:06.Conservatives. And let me just show you that as gains Nottinghamshire,
:12:06. > :12:09.Derbyshire - places Labour really expected and wanted to take back
:12:09. > :12:13.tonight - there's a couple of others still to come in. Perhaps
:12:14. > :12:17.the stir of the night is best exemplified if I show you this one,
:12:17. > :12:21.which just compares a few of the results in different parts of the
:12:22. > :12:29.country, and you can see here the kind of inroads that the UKIP party
:12:29. > :12:33.is making in terms of that share. The change in share - UKIP up 24%,
:12:33. > :12:37.up 21% in Lincolnshire, and in Kent 20% as well. They gained 17 seats
:12:37. > :12:40.in Kent. They gained 16 in Lincolnshire. Let's have a look and
:12:40. > :12:44.see what that's done to the political landscape of this council.
:12:44. > :12:48.It's pushed it into no overall control. It's taken the nierst that
:12:48. > :12:52.little slip of blue. That tells us the Conservative Party no longer
:12:52. > :12:56.control it. Here you go, then. They're the largest party, but you
:12:56. > :12:59.can really start to see the way that UKIP vote is eating into what
:12:59. > :13:02.might have been Labour gains and what might have been at least a
:13:02. > :13:07.Conservative hold. If I show you that as a percentage, again, you
:13:07. > :13:12.start to see the picture - UKIP moving into second place, so that,
:13:12. > :13:15.as Nick was saying, starting to become quite an important factor in
:13:15. > :13:19.English politics, at least. Emily, thank you very much for
:13:19. > :13:23.setting the scene for us. Lots of you I know will have been joining
:13:23. > :13:28.us for the first time. We'll recap on lots of the developments for you.
:13:28. > :13:33.Emily there with some of the hard facts, if you like. I am going to
:13:33. > :13:38.go to John Hess in hottinghamshire because he can talk to us about the
:13:38. > :13:43.two Labour gains there. For those viewers who are just joining us in
:13:43. > :13:47.the early evening like this just underline for us what's gone on in
:13:47. > :13:54.your region? Huw, this is significant. This is the River
:13:54. > :14:00.Trent. On this side is Nottingham city council, have been much a
:14:00. > :14:03.Labour fortress until an hour ago. The County of Nottinghamshire was a
:14:03. > :14:06.Conservative-controlled authority. The Conservatives have controlled
:14:06. > :14:16.the authority for the last four years. It looked touch and go at
:14:16. > :14:19.
:14:19. > :14:23.some stages whether Labour would be - the last handful of wards
:14:23. > :14:29.declared in parliamentary terms is they fall into the Nottingham
:14:29. > :14:32.suburbs in those swing seats like Broxto, which at the moment is held
:14:32. > :14:35.by the Health Minister - constituencies like Sherwood, the
:14:35. > :14:39.outskirts of this city where there was a straight fight between Tory
:14:39. > :14:42.and Labour, where UKIP, although they polled well, weren't really a
:14:42. > :14:46.factor, and Labour have pull an awful lot of effort into those
:14:46. > :14:50.wards, and this evening it looks as though it's turned up the goods, so
:14:50. > :14:54.Labour, which, you know, at one stage, it looked as though they
:14:54. > :14:57.would be the largest party, but wouldn't have overall control -
:14:57. > :14:59.tonight are celebrating because they've just made it. They have
:14:59. > :15:07.that majority that they wanted. The Conservatives - they're
:15:07. > :15:11.But - and this is the key thing - they believe they might be able to
:15:11. > :15:16.cut some deals with the Liberal Democrats who didn't do nearly as
:15:16. > :15:20.badly in Nottinghamshire as was feared and with a handful of
:15:20. > :15:23.independents. There will be tough spending decisions to be made here
:15:23. > :15:27.over the next few months or so, and the Conservative opposition, which
:15:27. > :15:30.it is now, believe Labour won't be able to have it their own way, but
:15:31. > :15:35.certainly tonight Labour are celebrating, as they're celebrating
:15:35. > :15:41.in neighbouring Derbyshire. The Labour leader Ed Miliband is on his
:15:41. > :15:50.way to ill friston in Derbyshire, but very close to Nottinghamshire
:15:50. > :15:53.to thank party workers and join in the celebrations. Exen -- when you
:15:53. > :15:59.compare the Labour performance in Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:15:59. > :16:04.what are the key points? The key thing is a lot of the suburban vote
:16:04. > :16:06.that's disappeared has started to come back to Labour. There is
:16:06. > :16:11.evidence in the old coal field areas, some of the support has come
:16:11. > :16:14.back to Labour, not completely. The Independents in places like
:16:14. > :16:19.Mansfield have been able to send back their candidates and their
:16:19. > :16:22.councillor, but there is evidence that across Nottinghamshire,
:16:23. > :16:32.especially in North Nottinghamshire where the Labour vote disappeared,
:16:33. > :16:37.
:16:37. > :16:40.We should mention the by-election in South Shields yesterday, in
:16:40. > :16:46.which Labour held on with a reduced majority but maintaining their
:16:46. > :16:52.share of the vote. A big difference in the result from 2010 was the
:16:52. > :16:55.surge in UKIP. Let's talk to Richard Moss from BBC north-east.
:16:55. > :17:02.For the benefit of those viewers who may not have been with us
:17:02. > :17:06.during the day, underline how this by-election panned out. In a way,
:17:06. > :17:11.this was a predictable result and a surprising one. Predictable in
:17:11. > :17:15.terms of the Labour victory, a seat the party has held since 1935. It
:17:15. > :17:21.is a real heartland. David Miliband left here, his successor with a
:17:21. > :17:25.majority of 11,000. The majority came down to 6000. Labour were
:17:25. > :17:30.satisfied if not ecstatic. But the change was the surge in votes for
:17:30. > :17:34.the UK Independence Party. They did not have a candidate in the 2010
:17:34. > :17:38.general election but scored 24 last night and came a clear second. They
:17:38. > :17:41.seemed to benefit from collapse in support for the coalition parties.
:17:41. > :17:45.The Conservatives slipped to third, halving their boat from the general
:17:45. > :17:51.election, but the biggest collapse was for the Liberal Democrats. They
:17:51. > :17:54.came 7th out of nine, polling 1.4%, the lowest share they have ever
:17:54. > :17:58.polled in a by-election, and they lost their deposit. Those that
:17:58. > :18:01.finished below them were the Monster Raving Loony Party and an
:18:01. > :18:08.eccentric candidate he believes he is the true king of the British
:18:09. > :18:12.people. Thank you. Chris Grayling, when we listen to
:18:12. > :18:16.that, I suppose you have to confront again at the end of the
:18:16. > :18:20.day, we have been at it for hours, but basically discussing different
:18:20. > :18:24.aspects of the way you respond as a Government, certainly as a
:18:24. > :18:29.Conservative Party, to the threat UKIP clearly poses in some
:18:29. > :18:34.sensitive areas. What is the nature of your response this evening?
:18:34. > :18:37.course, if you lose seats in a mid- term set of local elections, it is
:18:37. > :18:42.a wake-up call. The party has to take a step back and think, what
:18:42. > :18:46.else do we need to do to reach out to people whose support we will
:18:46. > :18:49.need come the general election? At the same time, it would be a huge
:18:49. > :18:52.mistake for us to be blown off track with the strategies we are
:18:52. > :18:55.pursuing on dealing with the deficit, tackling problems with
:18:55. > :18:59.welfare and education, because these are changed as the country
:18:59. > :19:02.needs. Yes, we are taking some difficult decisions, but if we
:19:02. > :19:06.allow ourselves by one set of disappointing results to be blown
:19:06. > :19:09.off course, that will say that as a Government we are not clear in the
:19:09. > :19:13.direction we are following and not trying to do the right thing for
:19:13. > :19:17.the country. We must be responsive and thoughtful to this, but also
:19:17. > :19:20.careful not to over-react. That is the balance which lots of viewers
:19:20. > :19:23.may find difficult to understand, you are not going to be blown off
:19:23. > :19:28.course but you need to do things to show you are responding to what
:19:28. > :19:32.happened. Where do those changes happen? If you look at what UKIP is
:19:32. > :19:36.arguing, and some of our supporters, if we want to sort out problems
:19:36. > :19:40.with the Human Rights Act, we want to address our issue of - but where
:19:40. > :19:43.the issue of our relationship with the European Union. The other
:19:43. > :19:47.parties outnumber us in the House of Commons. Bright or wrongly, they
:19:47. > :19:50.are entitled to their views, but Labour and the Lib Dems do not want
:19:50. > :19:53.to address those issues in this Parliament. So we cannot do some of
:19:53. > :19:57.the things our supporters want us to do. We have to be open about
:19:57. > :20:01.that and have clear plans for our next manifesto and demonstrate
:20:01. > :20:05.commitment to those changes. But we are clear that there are
:20:05. > :20:09.limitations in coalition to what we are able to deliver. The Queen's
:20:09. > :20:14.Speech, is that likely to have elements within it which will be
:20:14. > :20:18.seen as a response partly to what we had seen on the night? There
:20:18. > :20:23.will not be a great change to the Queen's Speech of the back of these
:20:23. > :20:27.local elections. At this stage it is being written somewhere in the
:20:27. > :20:30.wilds of craftsmen England. There will not be a great reaction where
:20:30. > :20:33.it is torn up and rewritten. What there should be in the Queen's
:20:33. > :20:36.Speech and there will be is a sensible balance of proposals
:20:36. > :20:42.across the spectrum which deliver some of the solutions to the
:20:42. > :20:45.problems Britain faces. The centre of that, I am told, will be
:20:45. > :20:49.measures on immigration. In a sense, you have seen a pre-emptive
:20:49. > :20:54.response to this from the Government. Chris Grayling himself,
:20:54. > :20:57.as Justice Secretary, had a tougher prison regime coming in the last
:20:57. > :21:00.week. From the Prime Minister, the promise of tougher measures on
:21:00. > :21:05.immigration, the promise of an EU referendum if the Conservatives
:21:05. > :21:08.were in power on their own. In a sense, we have had a lot of the
:21:08. > :21:12.promises. The intriguing thing Chris Grayling is suggesting, I
:21:12. > :21:15.think, is that we will have to have a twin approach from the
:21:15. > :21:18.Conservative Party. Here is what they would do in Government, and
:21:18. > :21:21.here is what they are, advertising what they would do if they were not
:21:22. > :21:25.in government that the Liberal Democrats. And they will not wait
:21:25. > :21:28.until the manifesto to do that but they will tell us over the next two
:21:28. > :21:38.years, we would like to give a referendum but we cannot, we would
:21:38. > :21:38.
:21:38. > :21:44.like to rip up the Human Rights Act, but we cannot. Third.? Coalition is
:21:44. > :21:48.a compromise. The �10,000 tax-free allowance is something we want. The
:21:48. > :21:52.people have begun to realise that that is benefiting them, but not
:21:52. > :21:55.enough people I hearing that message. So part of the message for
:21:55. > :21:59.the Liberal Democrats is to get our successes in the coalition
:21:59. > :22:03.government over to people. We are in government for the first time in
:22:03. > :22:07.many years and is delivering on our policies, making a fairer society.
:22:07. > :22:12.We have also got to expose some of the UKIP policies more. Look at
:22:12. > :22:15.what they are saying. They are talking about massive cuts in tax
:22:15. > :22:23.for the richest people in the land. The Liberal Democrats are against
:22:23. > :22:26.that. You are the ones who left of the richest. Under Liberal Democrat
:22:26. > :22:29.and Conservative coalition the richest in the land will pay more
:22:29. > :22:33.in tax in every year of the coalition than in any year of
:22:33. > :22:37.Labour, who had a very bad record on taxing the rich. UKIP want to
:22:37. > :22:41.reduce the tax on the rich, the opposite of the Liberal Democrats,
:22:41. > :22:47.wanting to take the Bourrust out of tax. We need to get our message
:22:47. > :22:50.over but also to expose UKIP for some of its weird policies. We will
:22:50. > :22:55.be joined by Nigel Farage for the second time today in a moment. He
:22:55. > :22:57.will come in a couple of minutes and we can put those points to him.
:22:58. > :23:06.On the Green, John Barron, Conservative MP for Basildon and
:23:06. > :23:10.Billericay. On the EU context, what are you hoping for in light of what
:23:10. > :23:16.has happened? I hope the party leadership will listen and learn
:23:16. > :23:20.from two key errors. The first is that we must take UKIP seriously.
:23:20. > :23:24.It is not simply a protest party. And I'm afraid Europe does feature
:23:24. > :23:27.in that and we need to address that issue. Secondly, the party
:23:27. > :23:31.leadership needs to accept there is deep public mistrust when the
:23:31. > :23:35.public hear politicians making promises about European issues. Too
:23:35. > :23:38.many have been broken in the past which is why 100 Conservative
:23:38. > :23:41.backbenchers have come together and are trying to urge the Government
:23:42. > :23:45.to bring forward the legislation into this Parliament for the
:23:45. > :23:49.referendum in the next. That would show serious intent and would
:23:49. > :23:55.address some of the key concerns where, certainly in Essex and I am
:23:55. > :24:00.sure up nationally, many natural Conservative supporters are voting
:24:00. > :24:04.UKIP because of the issue of Europe. Is he likely to be satisfied by the
:24:04. > :24:10.events in the months ahead, or not? David Cameron has talked about the
:24:10. > :24:12.need to ensure that our supporters, and those who we need to win back,
:24:12. > :24:16.have the comfort of knowing that a Conservative government would
:24:16. > :24:20.deliver in Europe. I think we both know that the party is sufficiently
:24:20. > :24:26.united on this issue, that it is inconceivable that we could back
:24:26. > :24:30.away from this promise. What do you make of that? That is only half the
:24:30. > :24:34.argument. We have always said, we raised this issue a year ago, that
:24:34. > :24:38.the commitment has to be credible and believable. Well, it is
:24:38. > :24:42.credible, because we haven't out option as part of the referendum in
:24:42. > :24:46.the next Parliament, but it is not yet believable. What would make it
:24:46. > :24:50.more believable is if there was support for legislation in this
:24:50. > :24:55.Parliament. Rather than simply an election manifesto promise. To many
:24:55. > :24:57.of those have been broken in the past. Make a serious attempt in
:24:58. > :25:01.this Parliament to pass the legislation enabling the referendum
:25:01. > :25:05.in the next Parliament, and I think that would address many people's
:25:05. > :25:10.concerns that you simply cannot trust politicians, because they had
:25:10. > :25:14.so does before and nothing has come of it. Legislation in this
:25:14. > :25:17.parliament would address that point. I think, and many think likewise on
:25:17. > :25:22.the Conservative backbenchers, it would take a central plank of
:25:22. > :25:27.support away from UKIP. Why bother voting For UKIP when you have a
:25:27. > :25:32.mainstream party offering you an in-out referendum and are serious
:25:32. > :25:35.about that offer? Are you saying the Prime Minister should pick a
:25:35. > :25:39.fight he is bound to lose because you do not have the votes to get a
:25:39. > :25:42.referendum in the House of Commons, and he should try to get a
:25:42. > :25:47.government these of legislation despite the fact that his coalition
:25:47. > :25:52.partners will say, no, we are not doing it? I do not think it is
:25:52. > :25:55.quite obvious that he would lose. I know of Labour backbenchers and one
:25:55. > :26:00.or two liberals who would support the legislation, who have argued
:26:00. > :26:04.for a very long time that we need an in-out referendum on Europe
:26:04. > :26:09.because the EU has fundamentally changed since we first joined it
:26:09. > :26:12.and last consulted the people on it in the mid- 1970s. As you well know,
:26:12. > :26:16.Nick, it does not have to be a government piece of legislation. I
:26:16. > :26:20.would like that to be the case. If the Prime Minister cannot go that
:26:20. > :26:24.far, he could certainly support a Private Member's Bill, if we could
:26:25. > :26:28.bring it forward into the house, and make clear to everyone that it
:26:28. > :26:32.has conservative backing. That would be an interesting situation
:26:32. > :26:37.and I think he could succeed. But even if he failed, put this to you,
:26:37. > :26:41.at least people would understand that he was serious in his intent.
:26:41. > :26:45.Win or lose, I think there is no downside from pushing for it from
:26:45. > :26:49.the government's point of view. Would that not highlight his
:26:49. > :26:52.weakness, with the phrase in office but not in power coming to mind, if
:26:52. > :26:57.you say we will try to pass legislation but do not blame me if
:26:57. > :27:01.it does not go through because I am only the Prime Minister? Not if he
:27:01. > :27:06.is genuine in trying to get it through. If it is a ploy to knock
:27:06. > :27:11.it into the long grass, I agreed. But if he is serious in his attempt
:27:11. > :27:17.to get this through, as long as you are bold heart and you push these
:27:17. > :27:20.things through, I do not think it matters if you fail as long as you
:27:20. > :27:23.have failed for the right reasons. In other words, you have given it
:27:23. > :27:27.your best and people will understand that. The idea that you
:27:27. > :27:33.do not put a piece of legislation into parliament because you are
:27:33. > :27:38.worried about losing, I think is a nonsense, frankly. Let him try,
:27:38. > :27:40.really push it hard, and people would know he is serious. I do not
:27:40. > :27:45.see there being any political downside to losing but I think it
:27:45. > :27:49.would be far closer than you think, Nick. I know Labour and Liberal MPs
:27:50. > :27:54.who would support this. Have you discussed this with David Cameron?
:27:54. > :27:59.We have, last year, but we were focusing on getting the referendum.
:27:59. > :28:03.When we first put the letter in an garnered the backbench support, we
:28:03. > :28:07.were focusing on the referendum in the next Parliament. It is not the
:28:07. > :28:11.ideal situation but senior Tory backbenchers have to come on TV to
:28:11. > :28:17.negotiate with the Prime Minister about how to deal with an election
:28:17. > :28:22.setback. We have negotiated a meeting. Both we have been having
:28:22. > :28:26.trouble getting out of Number 10. - - we have been trouble getting out
:28:26. > :28:29.of Number 10 the details of that meeting. All that I am saying to
:28:29. > :28:33.you is what I have said to him briefly in the division lobbies
:28:33. > :28:36.there was hoping to put to him in a constructive meeting. But I think
:28:36. > :28:41.he has got the message already. These election results show that he
:28:41. > :28:44.has to start taking UKIP seriously. The best way to show that he is
:28:44. > :28:48.serious about this issue is to support legislation in this
:28:48. > :28:56.Parliament for that referendum in the next. If he did that, it begs
:28:56. > :28:58.the question, why bother voting UKIP? Clearly, he basically said
:28:58. > :29:01.the Prime Minister is not taking them seriously and that has been
:29:02. > :29:06.the whole problem, the reason you are confronted with these gains
:29:06. > :29:11.today, he is not taking them seriously. I do not think that is
:29:11. > :29:14.right. I have great respect for his views. In the last month the Prime
:29:14. > :29:18.Minister spent a lot of time on the campaign trail. There will be a lot
:29:18. > :29:22.of thinking now. We have two years until the general election, one
:29:22. > :29:26.year until the European elections. The Prime Minister has said we have
:29:26. > :29:30.to consider these things carefully. One thing is clear, we cannot go
:29:30. > :29:34.into the next election with the electric having any doubt about our
:29:34. > :29:38.commitment to renegotiating the membership and Anyon-out referendum
:29:38. > :29:45.for the UK population to say, are we happy with the deal to be done
:29:45. > :29:48.or do we want to leave? Both basically, at any plan to bring
:29:48. > :29:52.legislation forward on this basis is something you are simply not
:29:53. > :29:56.going to play with. It was not in the coalition agreement and Nick
:29:56. > :30:02.Clegg has made clear he will not countenance this. I do not think it
:30:03. > :30:08.is a runner. What would you do if it happens? Listening to Chris and
:30:08. > :30:11.John talking... What would your attitude be? We do not think it is
:30:11. > :30:15.the right thing to do. Huge uncertainty for business. Nothing
:30:15. > :30:18.would deter foreign direct investment more. Listening to them,
:30:18. > :30:23.I am reminded of the John Major government and the Maastricht
:30:24. > :30:26.rebels. I do not deny the EU is an important issue, but if the
:30:26. > :30:31.Conservative Party seeks to enter into a bidding war and see who can
:30:31. > :30:34.have the most right-wing policies, they will lose. I am sitting here,
:30:34. > :30:39.flanked by Cabinet ministers, and not once have we heard the words
:30:39. > :30:44.growth and jobs. That is the number one priority for people. I was at
:30:44. > :30:47.my Jobcentre Plus office this morning, and I have seen long-term
:30:47. > :30:52.unemployment go up by 20%. The number one concern right now is
:30:52. > :30:55.that people want more jobs, better pay and the cost of living rises
:30:55. > :30:59.addressed. They had seen a situation where under this
:30:59. > :31:03.government we have seen pay packets drop by �1,700 on average and they
:31:03. > :31:13.have not said anything about it. We have spent five minutes talking
:31:13. > :31:25.
:31:25. > :31:30.Chris actually talked about - Chris talked about... Millions of pounds
:31:30. > :31:35.- a hundred thousand-pound tax cut. You're wrong. We are focusing on
:31:35. > :31:39.this. What we're seeing the more private sector jobs created, a
:31:39. > :31:44.million more. You talk to the economists, and what you'll find is
:31:44. > :31:46.economists are saying they're surprised... People are earning
:31:46. > :31:50.less money. Rather than interrupting all the time, let's
:31:50. > :31:54.listen to the facts. The facts are from independent economists they're
:31:54. > :31:57.surprised we're managing to create so many jobs despite the growth
:31:57. > :32:02.difficulties. We're doing that because we're focusing on helping
:32:02. > :32:05.the unemployed. That is the right thing to do - employ young people,
:32:05. > :32:10.unemployed people. Labour fail to doso. Stop. We have another result
:32:10. > :32:13.in. I was telling you about Doncaster where the mayoral contest
:32:13. > :32:18.was taking place. That result is in. I think they were counting for
:32:18. > :32:22.eight hours at least but they have it. It is a Labour gain, and Peter
:32:22. > :32:25.Davies, who was standing as an Independent, a English Democrat,
:32:25. > :32:33.has just been pipped at the post, really, and if you look at the
:32:33. > :32:36.share of the vote, you'll see that 51%, 49%, and then that was in the
:32:36. > :32:39.second round, of course, because there were other candidates there
:32:39. > :32:44.too. It's that supplementary vote system, so they went into the
:32:44. > :32:49.second round. That's why it took so long. What we're going to do now is
:32:49. > :32:53.think about the landscape at the end of today, and Jeremy Vine is
:32:53. > :32:57.going to tread through the landscape for us. It's quite a good
:32:57. > :33:01.way to just visualise the map, isn't it, Huw, and see exactly how
:33:01. > :33:05.it's changed, so we start here with the way it looked at the start of
:33:05. > :33:09.this extraordinary 24 hours. I am just reminded here how much blue
:33:09. > :33:14.there is, Conservative blue. These were very much elections held on
:33:14. > :33:18.the Conservatives' home territory, a patch of red up there, but bits
:33:18. > :33:21.of grey, not too much - grey meaning no overall control - mainly
:33:22. > :33:26.blue. These were areas where the Conservatives were strong. Now,
:33:26. > :33:30.well, they have been dislodged in lots of places - Cumbria goes to no
:33:30. > :33:34.overall control, Lancashire no, overall control. You heard earlier
:33:34. > :33:39.from Nottinghamshire - it goes into Labour red, Derbyshire, Labour red,
:33:39. > :33:43.Warwickshire no, overall control, Gloucestershire, no overall control,
:33:43. > :33:47.East Sussex no, overall control. There are lots of places where the
:33:47. > :33:50.blue has been swept away by grey, and the question now is what the
:33:50. > :34:00.parties make of these results with this extraordinary intervention of
:34:00. > :34:03.UKIP and a vote for UKIP the like national share, bring it on here -
:34:03. > :34:06.and remind us what the parties have done. So these are the shares of
:34:06. > :34:09.the votes we think the parties would have had had this election
:34:09. > :34:14.have been held not just in these mainly Conservative areas, but
:34:14. > :34:18.across the whole country. We have Labour first on 29% - a big proviso
:34:18. > :34:26.with this figure is it's actually lower than Labour scored in any
:34:26. > :34:30.local election in all their years of opposition between 1979 and 1997.
:34:30. > :34:34.Then we come to the Conservatives - 25%. We have been doing these
:34:34. > :34:38.projected national shares - the BBC has - for a long time, since the
:34:38. > :34:41.early '80s. We have never seen the Conservatives down that low in
:34:41. > :34:44.local elections on projected national share. It's a very low
:34:44. > :34:48.result for them. This is the extraordinary one that's driven all
:34:48. > :34:53.the debate in the studio and all the analysis - UKIP have suddenly
:34:53. > :34:58.not only got this 23%, they're now in our histogram. They're appearing
:34:58. > :35:01.as a bar in our graph for the first time. We have four main parties for
:35:01. > :35:07.the purposes of this election. They're on 23%, extraordinary. The
:35:07. > :35:14.Lib Dems have never scored as low as 14%, and there they are in
:35:14. > :35:19.fourth place. The others, by the way, on 9%. Now we look at a big of
:35:19. > :35:23.context and look back at how the three main tarties if I can still
:35:23. > :35:27.call them that, have done in previous elections going back to
:35:27. > :35:30.2005. Bear in mind the seats we're talking about here were last fought
:35:30. > :35:35.in 2009. The time before that was 2005, the same day as the general
:35:35. > :35:39.election, so as you would expect, the Labour were ahead, only just,
:35:39. > :35:42.in the equivalent parallel local elections, so Labour 33,
:35:42. > :35:48.Conservatives 31. Labour won in a general election that day. Their
:35:48. > :35:50.fortunes then were reversed, and they come down to 20% here. That's
:35:50. > :35:53.the absolute dash days of Gordon Brown with the Lib Dems on 26 and a
:35:53. > :35:56.pretty good result for the Conservatives, 35%, who are
:35:56. > :36:02.beginning to get the centre of power, as indeed they then manage
:36:02. > :36:06.to get that power - 2010 election - not an out-right majority for them,
:36:06. > :36:10.but they're in Number Ten along with the Liberal Democrats, because
:36:10. > :36:14.then all the complications start and the problems of the coalition
:36:14. > :36:21.Government mount, and you can see the Lib Dems seem to be taking the
:36:21. > :36:24.biggest hit here - 16% last year, 31% the Conservatives - there we
:36:24. > :36:27.leave - that's a trajectory that makes perfect sense, doesn't it?
:36:27. > :36:31.The coalition Government comes in. Labour rebound under Ed Miliband
:36:31. > :36:34.and both the Conservatives and more so the Lib Dems start the lose.
:36:34. > :36:38.Then we have this result. Labour then come down to 29. The
:36:38. > :36:41.Conservatives come down to 25, and the Lib Dems come down to 14, and
:36:42. > :36:47.we're seeing the three main parties, if I can call them that - sounds
:36:47. > :36:50.like a bit of an unfairness to UKIP to call them that today - they're
:36:50. > :36:53.all under 30%. That's how extraordinary this election has
:36:53. > :36:56.been. We're still going to be digesting who has lost their votes
:36:56. > :37:01.to UKIP. We assume it's the Conservatives usually, but it might
:37:01. > :37:04.be a much more complicated picture than that and it's given us an
:37:04. > :37:08.amazing election result in midterm. Certainly has. Thank you very much.
:37:08. > :37:13.Jeremy Vine there. Let me just reinforce those figures from that
:37:13. > :37:19.projected national share, and Professor John Curtice, our
:37:19. > :37:22.resident number cruncher, numbers expert, is send me a few pointers
:37:22. > :37:26.about this, saying the first time all the three main parties have
:37:27. > :37:29.been below 30%. Anglesey is now through as a hung council despite
:37:29. > :37:35.those Plaid Cymru gains - it's still there as no overall control.
:37:35. > :37:38.That count has been going on for most of the day. Back to the PN,
:37:38. > :37:42.the equal lowest figure ever for the Conservatives - the lowest ever
:37:42. > :37:45.figure for the Lib Dems and Labour's performance, says
:37:45. > :37:49.Professor John Curtice is worse in the last two years, though better
:37:49. > :37:53.than at the end of Gordon Brown's Government at the end of 2010. Just
:37:53. > :37:57.the figures once again for you of this projected national share - a
:37:57. > :38:01.very quick sentence on what that is - it's a projection - it's not a
:38:01. > :38:05.forecast or prediction, OK? It's a projection of what might have been
:38:05. > :38:15.the picture had these elections been taking place everwhere, which
:38:15. > :38:15.
:38:15. > :38:19.they haven't, obviously, it has Nigel Farage has joined us in the
:38:19. > :38:24.studio - looking quite bright and breezy, actually, given you were
:38:24. > :38:26.here, what, eight, nine hours ago? Yes, it has been a long, but
:38:26. > :38:29.interesting day for us, a fascinating day for British
:38:29. > :38:35.politics. Something has changed here, and I know that everybody
:38:35. > :38:38.would like to say it's a little shorm-term stamp your feet protest.
:38:38. > :38:41.It isn't. Something fundamental has happened here, and people have had
:38:42. > :38:45.enough of three main parties. They're called mainstream - I am
:38:45. > :38:49.not sure why, but three parties that increasingly resemble each
:38:49. > :38:52.other. The differences between them are very narrow. They don't even
:38:52. > :38:55.speak the same language that ordinary folk out there who are
:38:55. > :39:00.struggling for housing and jobs speak. I think this is really
:39:00. > :39:03.interesting and gives us a position on which we can build. For UKIP,
:39:03. > :39:07.the first-past-the-post system is a nightmare because we draw Tory
:39:07. > :39:12.votes, Labour and Lib Dem votes - we're spread across the country.
:39:12. > :39:16.What we have seen in the first time in places like Yarmouth, Thanet,
:39:16. > :39:20.Boston is UKIP winning majoritys in some of these towns and possibly
:39:20. > :39:24.following on from the model of the Lib Dems in the '80 and '90s - we
:39:24. > :39:27.won our target on these resources. I think today is a game changer.
:39:27. > :39:31.Were you looking for a form of constitutional reform given what
:39:31. > :39:37.you have just said in terms of how your votes are evenly spread? Do
:39:37. > :39:42.you want to see a more proportional voting issue? I was astonished with
:39:42. > :39:46.the Lib Dems campaigning for 30-40 years for proportional
:39:46. > :39:51.representation, but Clegg sold out to the Conservatives to have a
:39:51. > :39:56.referendum on AV. It was not even proportionate. What do you want?
:39:56. > :40:00.think we can learn about the German. They have the AV plus system. It
:40:00. > :40:04.means you have two votes and keep the benefits of this system. The
:40:04. > :40:08.member representing the town or the suburban area, but you also get a
:40:08. > :40:11.second ballot paper where you can express an opinion. We're using it
:40:11. > :40:15.in a sense already in the Scottish Parliament. We're using it in the
:40:15. > :40:18.Welsh Assembly. We're using it in London. That is what I would like
:40:18. > :40:21.to see, then any significant minority view would get a say in
:40:21. > :40:26.Westminster, and our democracy would be healthier and our turnouts
:40:26. > :40:30.I think would go up. What do you do with power if you get it? It's a
:40:30. > :40:34.long way off for UKIP, so that's a premature question. What we have
:40:34. > :40:38.done overnight and today is we have taken our first substantial step
:40:38. > :40:41.towards being a party that credibly could win seats at Westminster. I
:40:41. > :40:45.think power is some way off but I would argue when it comes to power,
:40:45. > :40:48.we haven't got much. We have transferred most of our power
:40:48. > :40:53.across the English Channel to the institution of the European Union,
:40:53. > :40:57.and the British Government are really like lapdogs most of the
:40:57. > :41:01.time, impotent really on so many issues, so today the ultimate
:41:01. > :41:05.debate of power is where is it? Is it here in London or somewhere
:41:05. > :41:09.else? Where is it? My question to Nigel - and he's clearly made good
:41:09. > :41:11.gains today but if come the general election UKIP supporters cost the
:41:11. > :41:16.Conservative Party seats in parts of the country where we have
:41:16. > :41:20.currently got representation, and if UKIP don't take those seats,
:41:20. > :41:25.that's - we are the only party committed to an in-out referendum -
:41:25. > :41:29.in a sense the danger for UKIP is they end up helping Labour into
:41:29. > :41:32.power and end up with no referendum. To be honest, Ed Miliband is going
:41:32. > :41:37.to promise a referendum before the election. Of course he is it's
:41:37. > :41:40.become almost a tradition now, since '97 that at every election
:41:40. > :41:43.all three parties promise a referendum and none of them deliver.
:41:43. > :41:47.Even if it was just David Cameron, if he was still your leader that
:41:47. > :41:51.promised it, the problem I would have with it is he did all this
:41:51. > :42:00.before - the cast-iron guarantee, really staked his reputation. You
:42:00. > :42:06.won the Euro election in '09 on the back of this cast-iron guarantee.
:42:06. > :42:12.Your literature said it, and he never meant it. Thes by Bonn treaty
:42:12. > :42:15.was ratified by the time we got to power. Weasel, weasel! Bit of the
:42:15. > :42:18.Lisbon treaty have been ratified and come into place since this
:42:18. > :42:22.coalition Government took power. If you've got the political will, you
:42:22. > :42:29.can do what you like, and Harold Wilson in '75 held a retrospective
:42:29. > :42:33.referendum. OK? He did it on the Treaty of Rome. You could have done
:42:33. > :42:36.that, but your man actually to gain vote and try to win an election
:42:36. > :42:40.basically made a promise he never intended to key. That's my problem
:42:40. > :42:45.with your leader. Do you think most of your supporters and your voters
:42:45. > :42:52.vote for you over Europe? Or is your impression they're voting for
:42:52. > :42:57.you for a number of reasons? think that Euro-scepticism, which
:42:57. > :43:06.used to be - often Labour too, but when the Maastricht division - was
:43:06. > :43:09.led by Tory MPs who thought if we told the British public the
:43:09. > :43:13.legislation that is absolutely fundamental to this country, we'll
:43:13. > :43:18.wake them up and storm the barricade - hang on. Let me finish
:43:18. > :43:21.- we don't talk about Article 136 but the consequences of Europe on
:43:21. > :43:27.people's everyday lives and in particular what has been the game-
:43:28. > :43:30.changer in many, many ways over the European debate has been open-door
:43:30. > :43:33.immigration policies to poor European countries since 2004.
:43:33. > :43:36.There's hell of outrage out there particularly from unskilled people
:43:36. > :43:39.who can't find jobs and are beginning to feel discriminated
:43:39. > :43:43.against their own country, so we fought this local election campaign
:43:43. > :43:47.says to people local councils provide services. I went to Boston
:43:47. > :43:50.- do you know the average waiting time at A&E there is nine hours
:43:50. > :43:55.because the population has exploded and the infrastructure isn't there
:43:55. > :43:58.to meet it. I am saying to all three of you that I really think -
:43:59. > :44:01.and this is not a prejudicial comment in any way at all - but I
:44:02. > :44:06.really think it is irresponsible given a million unemployed young
:44:06. > :44:10.people for us to open our doors to Romania and Bulgaria
:44:10. > :44:15.unconditionally on January the 1st. Everyone is asking Nigel a question
:44:15. > :44:18.and he has a reputation of being a straight talker and doesn't mess
:44:18. > :44:22.around and gives a straight election. How many seats are you
:44:22. > :44:28.going to win in the next election? I haven't got a clue. I am not a
:44:28. > :44:32.politician like you. I haven't got a clue. 50? I couldn't give a damn,
:44:32. > :44:35.actually, about elections and career and position. What I care
:44:35. > :44:39.about is getting our country back after what I think has been an act
:44:39. > :44:43.of great betrayal. Can you answer my question? I think that's a
:44:43. > :44:47.little bit arrogant and not like you... I asked you a question. Do
:44:47. > :44:51.you think it is right to open the door to Bulgaria and Romania next
:44:51. > :44:54.year? Answer that. We have a treaty only gay, as you know, and we don't
:44:54. > :44:57.want to break the law. You would be able to do that because you would
:44:57. > :45:00.pull Britain out of the EU and therefore not have those
:45:00. > :45:05.obligations. I understand that's your position. But of course, other
:45:05. > :45:10.EU countries might react. We have more British citizens living in
:45:10. > :45:13.other EU countries than there are EU citizens living in Britain, and
:45:13. > :45:16.if other EU countries said you're not allowing your people to come
:45:16. > :45:19.here - we're sending all your British citizens back, we'd have
:45:19. > :45:25.more people coming into the UK than would leave. Sometimes you don't
:45:25. > :45:32.tell the full story, do you? every one Briton... Is it true you
:45:32. > :45:37.don't tell both side of the story? For every one Briton working inside
:45:37. > :45:40.the European Union there are now five EU citizens working in Britain.
:45:40. > :45:43.A lot of the British citizens living in other EU countries are
:45:43. > :45:47.retired there, so if they send them back, they wouldn't be able to work
:45:47. > :45:51.here because they're retired. What you're suggesting is people leave -
:45:51. > :45:54.forced out of Britain to other EU countries, the working people, and
:45:54. > :45:58.retired British people are forced back here. Do you tell that story
:45:58. > :46:02.when you talk about Romania and Bulgaria? It doesn't strike me you
:46:02. > :46:09.do. That's the problem. Your straight talking... We have never
:46:09. > :46:13.in history - have we had a mollsy - in history never have we had an
:46:13. > :46:18.uncontrolled open border to poor countries, and we do that when we
:46:18. > :46:23.have a problem with our labour market, not just unemployment but
:46:23. > :46:27.wages for the unemployed broken down... Your situation would make
:46:27. > :46:31.it worse. I suggest to you given where we are, it's a silly,
:46:31. > :46:38.irresponsible thing to do. Nick Robinson is with us in a few yards
:46:38. > :46:48.away - actually, in a different studio. I am delighted you're with
:46:48. > :46:53.
:46:53. > :46:58.What does it tell us about the emotions today and the concerns of
:46:58. > :47:01.these gentlemen about what this chap has done? It tells of the
:47:01. > :47:06.frustrations of the three other parties. They feel that with Nigel
:47:06. > :47:12.Farage, who makes them smile, they feel they are trying to grab a Teba
:47:12. > :47:17.of soap which is awfully slippery. -- grab at a bar of soap. I tried
:47:17. > :47:21.earlier with one of his deputies and oval tray again, on the issue
:47:21. > :47:26.of immigration. If you keep stressing immigration, what is
:47:26. > :47:31.UKIP's view of an acceptable number of people coming into the country?
:47:31. > :47:39.50,000 a year would be acceptable, and roughly what we had from 1950
:47:39. > :47:43.until 1977. But business is saying 100,000 is a better figure.
:47:43. > :47:49.Immigration or work permits, which are two different things. One of
:47:49. > :47:51.the problems is that they have become merged. When I looked on the
:47:51. > :47:56.website a discover that this most important policy for your party is
:47:56. > :48:01.under review and being rewritten. All policies for all parties
:48:01. > :48:05.between elections are under review. Our stated policy was to aim, once
:48:05. > :48:08.the message has been sorted out, for net migration of a maximum of
:48:08. > :48:15.50,000 a year and work permits on a flexible basis where they are
:48:15. > :48:23.needed with absolutely no rights to social security benefits. Do you
:48:23. > :48:26.count students in that? No. If you take out the students and work
:48:26. > :48:32.permits, migration is not far different to what you are talking
:48:32. > :48:36.about. It probably is. We had one good year last year, but the 10
:48:36. > :48:40.years prior to that have been a disaster and from next year it will
:48:40. > :48:47.start rising rapidly. We are joined by someone else who will want to
:48:47. > :48:51.have his say, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander,
:48:51. > :48:56.who is in Inverness. Yes, far away from the studio and the elections.
:48:56. > :49:02.It is good to have you with us. Your sense of what the Lib Dems
:49:02. > :49:06.have done, because it has been pretty patchy for you. We have been
:49:06. > :49:09.strong where it matters, in the context of 2015 and the general
:49:09. > :49:14.election. In the Liberal Democrat constituencies where we have
:49:14. > :49:18.members of parliament, Taunton, Cheltenham, Berwick-upon-Tweed,
:49:18. > :49:23.Cumbria, we have done very well and we have picked up seats in other
:49:23. > :49:27.counties, like Wiltshire, for example, where we have a member of
:49:27. > :49:31.parliament. In a sense, the Liberal Democrats are a party of government
:49:31. > :49:36.now, and we are part of the coalition government. Parties of
:49:36. > :49:40.government get squeezed during mid- term elections. That has always
:49:40. > :49:43.happened and it has happened again today. What is more significant is
:49:43. > :49:48.that these elections suggest that Labour cannot win. They have not
:49:48. > :49:51.made the progress they hoped, but the Conservatives can lose. If you
:49:51. > :49:56.look from a Liberal Democrat perspective, both of those things
:49:56. > :50:01.are optimistic for 2015. What is the message for you, not just as
:50:01. > :50:05.Lib Dems, but as a coalition government, from the surge that
:50:05. > :50:09.UKIP have achieved? For Liberal Democrats, as Ed Davey said, the
:50:09. > :50:13.lesson is that we have to communicate even more strongly the
:50:13. > :50:17.successes we have had as part of the coalition government. The
:50:17. > :50:20.income tax policies, for example, the big income tax cuts we are
:50:20. > :50:23.delivering for 25 million working people this year. The fact that
:50:23. > :50:28.that message is getting across where we have Liberal-Democrat MPs
:50:28. > :50:33.shows it is a palpable message for and we need to work harder to get
:50:33. > :50:36.it across in other parts of the country, too. It is inevitable that,
:50:36. > :50:38.as a coalition government has come together to take some of the most
:50:38. > :50:43.difficult economic decisions any government has had to take for
:50:43. > :50:46.decades, that some people, and I completely understand this and it
:50:46. > :50:53.is completely wrong to belittle voters who have made this choice,
:50:53. > :50:56.have chosen to cast a protest vote for UKIP. I understand that. We
:50:56. > :51:01.have to continue to explain what we are doing, why we are doing it and
:51:01. > :51:05.why it is in the best interests of the country as we go forward to the
:51:05. > :51:09.general election in 2015. Straight over to Emily because we have had
:51:09. > :51:13.another result. Durham has been held by Labour. No
:51:14. > :51:18.big surprise because it is Labour heartland. They won it last time
:51:18. > :51:24.around. It is near South Shields, where they kept their share. Let's
:51:24. > :51:28.have a look at the changed overnight. Labour, up 24. They will
:51:28. > :51:32.be pleased with those gains. The Independent losing. The Lib Dems
:51:32. > :51:36.have taken a hit, more than double what they are partners in
:51:36. > :51:41.government, the Conservatives, have taken. That is the result in Durham.
:51:41. > :51:46.Let me take you, because we have one more to go, just waiting for
:51:46. > :51:53.Northamptonshire, this is how debt counsellors tally is looking. The
:51:53. > :52:02.Conservatives have lost 327, Labour have made gains of 284. The Lib
:52:02. > :52:07.Dems, down 122. UKIP have made an astonishing gains of 144 seats. 136
:52:07. > :52:12.games. A good day for the Green Party, adding five to their tally.
:52:12. > :52:16.What does it do in terms of the Council make-up? The Conservatives
:52:16. > :52:21.on 18, the vast majority in comfortable Tory shires. They have
:52:21. > :52:26.lost 10. Two of those to Labour, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire.
:52:26. > :52:31.Eight have gone to no overall control. The astonishing ones we
:52:31. > :52:35.have put towards the top - Norfolk, no overall control, Lincolnshire,
:52:35. > :52:42.no overall control, both areas where the UKIP vote played into the
:52:42. > :52:45.Conservative vote and deprived them of control of the council.
:52:45. > :52:50.What will they be saying on the front pages and the inside pages
:52:50. > :52:54.tomorrow, because the comment is, of course, important? We have Ian
:52:54. > :52:58.Martin of the Telegraph and Kevin Maguire of the Daily Mirror on the
:52:58. > :53:02.green. Your thoughts. It is an extraordinary political event,
:53:02. > :53:07.really. You look at the numbers you ran through earlier. If it turns
:53:07. > :53:12.out to be the case, what you are projecting, all of the main parties
:53:12. > :53:16.below 30%, that is a potentially incredibly significant political
:53:16. > :53:20.moment. It suggests that the long, slow fragmentation of the British
:53:20. > :53:27.political system has gone up a gear in terms of speed. And that
:53:28. > :53:32.something significant has happened. Kevin. The ground has shaken. Is it
:53:32. > :53:36.an earthquake, or will it died down later? It is trying to work out the
:53:36. > :53:40.impact on the other parties. I would have thought Nick Clegg is
:53:40. > :53:45.terrified, David Cameron worried, and Ed Miliband will have concerns,
:53:45. > :53:48.although he can be quietly pleased that, if UKIP continued its surge,
:53:49. > :53:53.it will split the right-wing vote and he could enter Downing Street
:53:53. > :53:59.by the back door in a couple of years. He does not really have to
:53:59. > :54:03.increase the Labour vote, if UKIP serves as the SDP did to Labour in
:54:03. > :54:09.the 1980s. It could split the vote and the person who will be damaged
:54:09. > :54:12.his David Cameron. But it is a big moment. UKIP will now always be
:54:12. > :54:18.there with its own name when we count the seats. We are running out
:54:18. > :54:23.of time but good to talk to you both. Emily, are we in a position
:54:23. > :54:29.to say that we have them all in, or not? I am wondering whether
:54:29. > :54:33.Northamptonshire has come. Am I wrong? We do not have the count for
:54:33. > :54:38.Northamptonshire. They are still finishing. What we do know is that,
:54:38. > :54:42.essentially, it has been held by the Conservatives. Pretty safe to
:54:42. > :54:49.say it has been held by the Conservatives. I have just heard in
:54:49. > :54:56.the last second, I think we can show you now. A majority of 15, the
:54:56. > :55:00.Conservatives on 36. You can see the pattern. Good gains for Labour,
:55:00. > :55:05.a bad night for the Conservatives. UKIP on three, the Lib Dems taking
:55:05. > :55:08.one hit, but essentially the Conservatives have held on there.
:55:08. > :55:13.That is all of them in. We just have a couple of minutes, so I am
:55:13. > :55:16.really just wanting to get a sense, in a sentence, and I mean that,
:55:16. > :55:21.starting with you, Ed Davey, where you see things this evening, given
:55:21. > :55:24.that we have the final figures. From our perspective, we have seen
:55:24. > :55:28.some good councillors lose their seats, and that is always something
:55:28. > :55:32.to feel sorry for because some of them work hard in their communities.
:55:32. > :55:36.We have made gains in other areas. It is not as bad as it was this
:55:36. > :55:39.time last year, and in the seats that matter for the next general
:55:39. > :55:45.election we are polling above what we have done previously. This is
:55:45. > :55:49.not a bad platform for 2015 for the Liberal Democrats. We approach to
:55:49. > :55:56.these elections with humility, and I am pleased we are seeing progress.
:55:57. > :56:00.We got our two bid targets, and we got 270, 284 games, which were very
:56:00. > :56:04.pleased with. Does it mean everything is sorted, no, but we
:56:04. > :56:07.have made progress in the key marginal areas in the south where
:56:07. > :56:11.we need to win back support to get a majority. The key thing is we
:56:11. > :56:15.have to demonstrate we have the answers on growth and jobs. That is
:56:15. > :56:21.what we have been fundamentally focused on, which is why I think we
:56:21. > :56:24.have made progress. Feeling bruised, as Conservatives? Every party in
:56:24. > :56:28.power goes through difficult times when it comes to local elections.
:56:28. > :56:32.We have to not be blown off track in doing what we think is right for
:56:32. > :56:35.the country. Nigel and I clearly agree that we need to do all we
:56:35. > :56:39.think is right, and we will carry on doing that will stop I think
:56:39. > :56:43.Kevin Maguire's comments were revealing. The reality is that
:56:43. > :56:46.Labour are unfit to take over governing the country again. It is
:56:46. > :56:50.only 2.5 years since they were last in power and we know what happened
:56:50. > :56:54.then. I would hate to think that the people lining up behind UKIP
:56:54. > :57:00.today will do something in two years and end up with Ed Miliband
:57:00. > :57:04.in power and no European referendum. Nigel Farage, the final word.
:57:04. > :57:09.have taken British politics, throw it up into the air, taken votes
:57:09. > :57:12.from across the board. The result of this, none of us can foresee. I
:57:12. > :57:16.would say that if the Government and the opposition do not respond
:57:16. > :57:20.to our major concerns of open-door immigration from Europe, in 2015,
:57:20. > :57:25.who knows what might happen? One thing is certain, nothing will ever
:57:25. > :57:32.be quite the same again. Emily, a few seconds to show us the scores
:57:32. > :57:40.at the end of the day. The Conservatives on 335 losses,
:57:40. > :57:46.Labour on 291. The Lib Dems losing 123, UKIP with a surge of 139 News
:57:46. > :57:50.seats. The Green Party up five. And now we have all of them in, the
:57:50. > :57:54.Conservatives have held 18 and lost 10. Labour have gained two. The Lib
:57:54. > :57:59.Dems have not picked up those that they lost to the Conservatives last
:57:59. > :58:03.time round. The story of the night is that eight have gone into no
:58:03. > :58:06.overall control. Thank you to Emily Maitlis and to
:58:06. > :58:11.Jeremy Vine, who was with us for so much of the day with his analysis.
:58:11. > :58:15.It has been a long night and day long day. From all of the team, of
:58:15. > :58:23.course we hope you have enjoyed our coverage of the elections. My
:58:23. > :58:31.thanks to everyone here. And especially to Emily, who has been
:58:31. > :58:37.stalked throughout the day, constantly updating the results. --
:58:37. > :58:41.store water. BBC News at 6pm will be getting under way in a few
:58:41. > :58:45.seconds on BBC One and on the BBC News Channel. Of course, do not