Europe

:00:19. > :00:22.in Belfast. Up to now we have had the details of who is going to

:00:23. > :00:26.represent us in the 11 new super councils. Today we get the big

:00:27. > :00:30.picture of who will be representing us in Europe. You can see all the

:00:31. > :00:35.counting going on in the background there.

:00:36. > :00:38.We are here for the afternoon to see if the three outgoing MEPs will be

:00:39. > :00:42.returning to Brussels. We will hear from them and from the other

:00:43. > :00:45.candidates and of course we will be pouring over the facts and figures

:00:46. > :00:48.with our expert analysts. Down here on the floor alongside

:00:49. > :00:52.where the ballot papers are being sorted we will drill down into those

:00:53. > :00:56.figures and we will hear from party members on where it went right and

:00:57. > :01:02.where it went wrong. Now joining me on our special

:01:03. > :01:05.election set is our political editor Mark Davenport. We also have Connor

:01:06. > :01:08.Murphy and Arlene Foster from Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. You

:01:09. > :01:11.are all welcome to the programme. Politicians will be coming and

:01:12. > :01:16.going, we will hear your thoughts in a second. I want to have a word with

:01:17. > :01:19.you, Mark, to see where we are at the moment for the benefit of people

:01:20. > :01:24.at home who perhaps thought they were going to hear who the three

:01:25. > :01:28.MEPs were, we should have a health warning that's probably sometime

:01:29. > :01:30.off. It's sometime distant, I think. They're churning at quite a rate

:01:31. > :01:33.off. It's sometime distant, I think. They're churning at quite a through

:01:34. > :01:39.the different boxes, all the boxes have been opened, they're counting

:01:40. > :01:43.them council area by come area -- by council area. We haven't got a

:01:44. > :01:46.precise time from the staff as to when it will be. What we are

:01:47. > :01:51.resorting to is depending on the parties who are going in and making

:01:52. > :01:55.unofficial tallies, what happens is that the votes get put in little

:01:56. > :01:59.cages and put into a cabinet on the side of one of these walls behind me

:02:00. > :02:04.and you can count the number of votes and get a broad estimatation.

:02:05. > :02:08.We have to put a health warning on it, because that's obviously not the

:02:09. > :02:13.proper count, it gives you a sense of the running order. As would be

:02:14. > :02:20.predicted, we have Sinn Fein and the DUP at the top, some tallies putting

:02:21. > :02:23.them around the 25% mark, although more recent figures show there is a

:02:24. > :02:29.gap between Sinn Fein and the DUP with Martina Anderson in the lead.

:02:30. > :02:33.Then we think that Jim Nicholson is fairly safely comfortably in third

:02:34. > :02:38.position, again one tally there putting him at about 14% clearly

:02:39. > :02:44.ahead of the SDLP at 12%. That figure may move but it doesn't look

:02:45. > :02:48.like Alex Attwood can pull off this statistical long shot and knock him

:02:49. > :02:54.out of the pack. The other person whose vote we will be watching

:02:55. > :03:01.closely is that of Jim Allister, around 11% or so. One unofficial

:03:02. > :03:08.tally that I have put him on about 27,000 votes. But again not enough

:03:09. > :03:12.necessarily to lift him ahead of Jim Nicholson. I would put my money on

:03:13. > :03:18.this stage on getting the same three again. It looks like Alliance might

:03:19. > :03:24.have done OK. I have one suggestion here of about 8%. It's early days

:03:25. > :03:27.and I suppose the margin of error is an issue when you get down to that

:03:28. > :03:31.level. If that was the case that would be a good result for the

:03:32. > :03:36.Alliance Party. They would be reasonably satisfied in the sense

:03:37. > :03:39.it's an increase on what they got their previous candidate got - a

:03:40. > :03:43.couple of percentage points below that. If they raise, they'll be

:03:44. > :03:47.happy. Obviously they would have thought that with the more

:03:48. > :03:54.high-profile candidate in Anna Lo they should have attracted more

:03:55. > :03:59.votes. Most put them and ornd 21,000 votes -- around 21,000 votes but

:04:00. > :04:03.it's still going on. UKIP, NI21, Greens and Conservatives, small

:04:04. > :04:11.numbers, we think? Most of the tally figures I have seen, the Greens and

:04:12. > :04:18.Conservatives down Greens maybe 1%, Conservatives not even showing. NI21

:04:19. > :04:23.maybe around 2%, 3,000 votes. Tina McKenzie has just arrived. At one

:04:24. > :04:26.stage we thought she was so disillusioned with what's going on

:04:27. > :04:31.she wouldn't arrive at all. She has come in. Again they probably haven't

:04:32. > :04:37.made the kind of mark they would have wanted to. UKIP maybe on about

:04:38. > :04:44.3% of the vote. Henry Reilly about 8,000 votes. If the SDLP did firm up

:04:45. > :04:48.that figure of 12% that would be disappointing for the party,

:04:49. > :04:54.wouldn't it? Last time it was 16. 16.2%. That would be a significant

:04:55. > :04:58.drop. Yeah. One thing they may point out is that it looks like the

:04:59. > :05:01.nationalist vote is down as an overall proportion of the vote.

:05:02. > :05:05.There's been some talk the nationalist vote amounting to about

:05:06. > :05:09.38% of the votes cast. Obviously that may have played some sort of

:05:10. > :05:13.part. But all they were talking about during the campaign, the

:05:14. > :05:16.possibility of some splitting of the unionist vote and Alex Attwood

:05:17. > :05:19.squeezing through, none of that has come to pass. If there is a

:05:20. > :05:23.fragmentation of the unionist vote they haven't done well enough to

:05:24. > :05:27.benefit. Arlene and Connor, we will hear your thoughts now. We have to

:05:28. > :05:31.say this is nothing more than informed speculation. I am sure you

:05:32. > :05:33.have been talking to your tallymen and women yourselves and party

:05:34. > :05:39.activists and trying to work out how many votes there are in the various

:05:40. > :05:41.cages as Mark has suggested. Arlene, anything you disagree with so far?

:05:42. > :05:45.Does that tie in with what you are hearing? Well, it's too early to

:05:46. > :05:48.talk about percentages, as yet. We are pleased with what we are seeing.

:05:49. > :05:52.We are pleased with the way in which the tally is going. It's too early

:05:53. > :05:58.to talk about percentages as yet. We do hope that we will be up from our

:05:59. > :06:01.percentage the last time around. If it was 25%, if it was 25% that would

:06:02. > :06:05.be a significant increase because you were on over 18% the last time.

:06:06. > :06:10.You don't want to talk that one up too much. As I say, we can't say

:06:11. > :06:14.that as yet. Diane ran a very good campaign. She has been a

:06:15. > :06:19.hard-working MEP. I think that will be reflected in her vote. Connor

:06:20. > :06:23.Murphy, your thoughts at this early stage with all the health warnings

:06:24. > :06:27.that we have already made clear? At the risk of agreeing totally with

:06:28. > :06:33.Arlene for the first time... Probably! We are in early stages.

:06:34. > :06:36.It's very difficult at this stage to say definitively, if we go for one

:06:37. > :06:40.figure and it turns out not to be the case, you thought you were

:06:41. > :06:48.getting that, well, you must be disappointed. I wouldn't hold it to

:06:49. > :06:51.you! In the same position we have been doing excellently across the

:06:52. > :06:56.island, we are in line to get four MEPs, it's a huge achievement on the

:06:57. > :07:00.back of a successful local Government election. We are in a

:07:01. > :07:04.good place. You go into this election with the purpose of getting

:07:05. > :07:09.your candidate elected and I think we are on course to do that. What

:07:10. > :07:15.the final percentage point is, that's still a little bit of a grey

:07:16. > :07:18.area. I think we, I suppose like Arlene, are pleased with the way the

:07:19. > :07:24.count is going here. We are pleased with the way it's going across

:07:25. > :07:27.Ireland today. I suppose you probably wouldn't be terribly

:07:28. > :07:31.surprised to hear the SDLP might not be doing as well as the SDLP thought

:07:32. > :07:35.that it was going to do, because some. Your party colleagues have

:07:36. > :07:38.made it clear if Sinn Fein believed there were two nationalist seats in

:07:39. > :07:42.Northern Ireland you would have put forward two candidates. You will not

:07:43. > :07:48.be hugely surprised if Alex Attwood is disappointed by the end of today?

:07:49. > :07:50.That's a matter for the SDLP. Every party enters according to how they

:07:51. > :07:54.think they're going to do. If we thought there were enough votes to

:07:55. > :07:58.elect two people from Sinn Fein we would have put two people from Sinn

:07:59. > :08:01.Fein into the race. The DUP discussed having the same position,

:08:02. > :08:04.as well. Other parties put forward candidates and give it their best

:08:05. > :08:07.shot, that's what we all do. We are interested in trying to get our

:08:08. > :08:11.candidates elected. It's up to the SDLP to mount a campaign to get

:08:12. > :08:14.their candidate elected. If they're disappointed at the end that's a

:08:15. > :08:18.matter that I am sure that party will consider rment we hope to be

:08:19. > :08:20.pleased at the end of this campaign and certainly indications across

:08:21. > :08:25.Ireland today are that we should be pleased. Absolutely determined on

:08:26. > :08:28.Sinn Fein's part not to do anything to help fellow nationalists,

:08:29. > :08:31.certainly not in Northern Ireland, your party leader was clear when he

:08:32. > :08:35.spoke to me I think on Saturday, when he said we don't have any

:08:36. > :08:38.confidence in the SDLP. We want people to vote for Sinn Fein and

:08:39. > :08:42.that's pretty much it. And that's what every party - the position they

:08:43. > :08:47.adopt. It isn't the position every party adopts. Can I say we have had

:08:48. > :08:51.a situation in the past where we have sought to have an electoral

:08:52. > :08:54.arrangement with the SDLP and they've declared themselves not

:08:55. > :08:56.interested. That's different. An electoral arrangement is different

:08:57. > :09:00.from asking or suggesting people might transfer down the ballot

:09:01. > :09:02.paper. It's not the same thing. I have never heard the SDLP suggesting

:09:03. > :09:06.anyone transfer to Sinn Fein. If they wanted us to get to that type

:09:07. > :09:10.of arrangement where we suggested that our second preferences go to

:09:11. > :09:14.each other's candidates I am sure we would be open to discuss that. They

:09:15. > :09:19.never did. We get accused of not helping the SDLP. The SDLP have been

:09:20. > :09:22.attacking ourselves and attacking the executive generally, although

:09:23. > :09:25.they're members of the executive, for the last number of years as if

:09:26. > :09:31.they're not part of it. When it comes to an election they want a

:09:32. > :09:42.handout from Sinn Fein. We saw Mike Nesbitt engaging in a little bit of

:09:43. > :09:47.selfie-taking! I think it's photo-bombing. He told me nothing

:09:48. > :09:52.was going to wipe the smile off his face after the elections. Arlene, a

:09:53. > :09:55.lot of politicians and journalists and analysts, photographers, party

:09:56. > :10:01.workers milling around. What are they doing? All trying to pick up

:10:02. > :10:05.the gossip. All trying to pick up the gossip and see if they can work

:10:06. > :10:09.out how many are in those piles. To reflect back on your point about the

:10:10. > :10:12.nationalist vote going down in terms of its percentage share, I think the

:10:13. > :10:16.important thing from this election from our point of view, from a

:10:17. > :10:19.unionist point of view is the percentage of unionists coming out

:10:20. > :10:24.to vote has risen. That's a very good news story from the from this

:10:25. > :10:29.election and one we will be looking at closely as to why that's the

:10:30. > :10:32.case. Could be because of the smaller unionist parties you were

:10:33. > :10:35.accusing of fragmenting the vote. We will be looking at the registration

:10:36. > :10:40.and the fact more people registered this time around. That's a good news

:10:41. > :10:44.story. If there is more unionists voting, regardless of what you

:10:45. > :10:52.think, Mark, I am pleased about and our party will be pleased. We saw a

:10:53. > :10:55.shot there of the DUP encampment. It look it's like -- looked like

:10:56. > :10:59.Jonathan Bell and Gregory Campbell were doing the number crunching. Are

:11:00. > :11:03.they good at sums Gregory is very good at sums. He is very much our

:11:04. > :11:07.statistics man. If you want to know anything, ask Gregory. Right. There

:11:08. > :11:12.are lots of people with spread sheets and calculators, Mark. Yeah.

:11:13. > :11:15.I mean, the problem is jumping to conclusions. We put in that caveat,

:11:16. > :11:18.I busily got hold of a load of figures and worked out percentages

:11:19. > :11:30.to realise one candidate was missing and this was entirely eronerous. We

:11:31. > :11:34.might be looking at certain constituencies and there might be

:11:35. > :11:39.geographical reasons why one party is down. Jim Nicholson just - that

:11:40. > :11:44.was a live shot of him walking around the base of our studio set

:11:45. > :11:52.there. I can just see him. Mark, we can all see him. I think he is going

:11:53. > :11:57.to talk to Wendy on the extended Talkback coverage. Jim Nicholson I

:11:58. > :12:00.think will be a happy man on the basis of the figures we have so far.

:12:01. > :12:05.Looks like he will get back in. That really was to be expected, given

:12:06. > :12:09.what we saw as the strengthening of the Ulster Unionist vote in the

:12:10. > :12:14.local elections. Cheesy grin as far as he is concerned and for Mike

:12:15. > :12:17.Nesbitt, this was Mike Nesbitt's first election and it could have

:12:18. > :12:23.gone worse for him. He is happy so far. Let's see when we get the final

:12:24. > :12:25.scores, as far as Jim Allister is concerned if his grin was as wide as

:12:26. > :12:31.yesterday. Thank you for your thoughts for now. Let's go down to

:12:32. > :12:35.the count floor and talk to Tara. She's been joined by Nicolas White

:12:36. > :12:40.who's been taking a detailed look at some figures.

:12:41. > :12:43.Yes, after a rest after his marathon on Friday and Saturday, I am pleased

:12:44. > :12:48.to say he is back with us now. What are you hearing? I am hearing that

:12:49. > :12:52.the two top candidates, Martina Anderson and Diane Dodds are quite

:12:53. > :12:57.close to the quota, possibly Martina Anderson a little above it. So Sinn

:12:58. > :13:01.Fein very likely to get elected on the first count. DUP likely to be

:13:02. > :13:08.nearly on the first count and perhaps a little bit of space to

:13:09. > :13:10.make up. After that, I hear that the Ulster Unionist vote has more or

:13:11. > :13:14.less held up at roughly the same level as last time and roughly as it

:13:15. > :13:18.was on Friday. The SDLP on the other hand, sounds like it's not been a

:13:19. > :13:22.good election for them. The result in the local Government elections

:13:23. > :13:28.last week, 13. 6%, was their second worst result ever. The worst was 13.

:13:29. > :13:33.3% in 1973 local elections. We are looking like that record may be

:13:34. > :13:37.broken today. Jim Allister, something more than 10%, maybe 11%,

:13:38. > :13:40.not likely to get elected but his transfers will be sufficient to

:13:41. > :13:46.elected Jim Nicholson on the last count. Below that Anna Lo of the

:13:47. > :13:49.Alliance Party, 7, 8%. It will be the best election results the

:13:50. > :13:54.Alliance Party has had for European elections. They'll be able to hold

:13:55. > :13:59.their heads high? Yes. They will not get elected which is what is nice,

:14:00. > :14:03.getting the seats at the end of the day but an encouraging result. What

:14:04. > :14:13.about this SDLP situation, bad news for them? Bad news for them. I think

:14:14. > :14:18.we will see that vote slipping quite significantly compared to the last

:14:19. > :14:21.European election. There's been a lot of discussion of democratic

:14:22. > :14:25.determinism, differential turnout. I think basically we are now seeing

:14:26. > :14:30.that nationalists are not voting in the same proportion that Unionists

:14:31. > :14:33.are not voting. Everybody is succumbing to the same degree of

:14:34. > :14:37.apathy no matter what their community background. Some of the

:14:38. > :14:42.predictions before the election, Alex Attwood could be within 1000

:14:43. > :14:48.votes of being elected wide off the mark? I don't think this is a good

:14:49. > :14:52.year for the SDLP. What about Jim Allister? There were suggestions

:14:53. > :14:55.earlier, these things are always open to speculation and people say

:14:56. > :14:59.what they want us to say on the airwaves, but there were some

:15:00. > :15:03.suggestions that the DUP were worried. Let's be clear, Jim

:15:04. > :15:11.Allister eats into their traditional vote very badly. It looks now like

:15:12. > :15:15.that situation has been somewhat redressed, but only somewhat. It was

:15:16. > :15:19.clear that the TUV votes last week in the local elections was coming at

:15:20. > :15:24.least as much from the DUP as new voters. If anything, slightly more.

:15:25. > :15:27.This plateauing of the Sinn Fein vote is interesting when you look

:15:28. > :15:31.south of the border, when that is clearly not been the case. There's a

:15:32. > :15:35.theory that they weren't really trying appear, that the energies

:15:36. > :15:41.were being directed into the southern campaign where they work

:15:42. > :15:43.really wanting to make gains. This is a party that's very good about

:15:44. > :15:46.using its resources efficiently. What sort of timescale are you

:15:47. > :15:50.expecting the first preference votes to be finished? You told me it might

:15:51. > :15:53.happen by 2pm but it hasn't happened yet. Sometime in the next hour, ask

:15:54. > :16:05.me again in an hour! There's a few members of the DUP

:16:06. > :16:13.apparently arriving, Edwin Poots among them there, the Health

:16:14. > :16:16.Minister. You can see the television cameras and journalists, taking

:16:17. > :16:19.photographs of anything that moves at the moment. There are all kinds

:16:20. > :16:23.of interesting conversations and the parties have come together in their

:16:24. > :16:25.groups, but then you do spot different members of different

:16:26. > :16:29.parties may be having a cup of coffee together and a chat. That

:16:30. > :16:33.happens around Stormont from time to time, but occasionally the parties

:16:34. > :16:38.sit in their different groups for their breaks. They are all looking

:16:39. > :16:43.to see exactly what the figure is. To one extent this is a time when

:16:44. > :16:46.all the parties united, which is basically to try and get the raw

:16:47. > :16:50.statistics and try to find what they will do with them. A lot of those

:16:51. > :16:55.conversations are, what are you hearing, does that match what I've

:16:56. > :16:59.gleaned and what my colleagues have gleaned? This is Northern Ireland

:17:00. > :17:04.united as never before. We were just talking about the fact that at the

:17:05. > :17:07.last election you could see through the European ballot papers, so you

:17:08. > :17:10.got an idea when the verification was going on. At this time around

:17:11. > :17:14.the paper must be a lot thicker, so you couldn't see through. When the

:17:15. > :17:18.verification happened on Friday morning, we had no idea as to how

:17:19. > :17:23.the candidates were going to do in Europe. We always like to know as

:17:24. > :17:26.quickly as we can and that wasn't possible. Another thing we

:17:27. > :17:31.journalists are missing, we used to have a balcony and we used to be

:17:32. > :17:34.able to look town on the piles of votes and work-out from that.

:17:35. > :17:40.Instead, we are dependent on people having to go in and look for us. We

:17:41. > :17:46.can't get a vantage point on that. The other issue which is quite

:17:47. > :17:54.intriguing is the turnout is up. It is 51.8%, it was 43% in the last

:17:55. > :17:59.elections, which were in 2009. The reason for that is, presumably,

:18:00. > :18:02.because these were tied into the local elections. I'd like to think

:18:03. > :18:05.it's been our exciting election coverage during the course of the

:18:06. > :18:09.campaign that has turned people on to politics as never before, but the

:18:10. > :18:13.truth of the matter is the reason it was so much lower beforehand is you

:18:14. > :18:17.have the European elections on their own. What tends to happen is if you

:18:18. > :18:22.put them together with an assembly election or a council election,

:18:23. > :18:28.election will, because people mark both papers at the same time. It is

:18:29. > :18:33.not necessarily to be unexpected. I think it was about 55% when they

:18:34. > :18:37.were together with the Assembly elections previously. Now at about

:18:38. > :18:41.52% when they are together with the council elections. In terms of the

:18:42. > :18:47.raw numbers, that is likely to be good news for your candidate. It

:18:48. > :18:51.will not affect percentages, that issue in itself won't, but the raw

:18:52. > :18:57.data, the actual number of votes should be up, shouldn't they? It

:18:58. > :19:00.seems so. I think that's good. One of the reasons they coincided with

:19:01. > :19:05.the council poll as well, but there is a greater sense now that people

:19:06. > :19:09.have of the involvement of Europe in domestic politics, the decisions

:19:10. > :19:12.that are taken, particularly relating to austerity and the

:19:13. > :19:16.influence of Europe in that. I think there's a greater sense that people

:19:17. > :19:20.have a connect now between the MEPs and what they do in Europe and

:19:21. > :19:25.European politics generally of the institutions. There perhaps is more

:19:26. > :19:28.of an interest now. Europe was traditionally a very low turnout

:19:29. > :19:32.because people basically thought they elected MEPs to go off and

:19:33. > :19:36.disappear for four years. Now I think there's a greater

:19:37. > :19:40.understanding about what they do and a greater connect between the MEPs

:19:41. > :19:45.back to hear and the electorate. Let's go back to Tara, who has been

:19:46. > :19:51.joined live by the NI21 candidate, Tina McKenzie.

:19:52. > :19:56.We were misinformed then that you weren't going to come, is that

:19:57. > :19:59.right? I was in two minds. I didn't know whether I wanted to come and

:20:00. > :20:02.faced the media scrum, but it's my campaign and I see other people are

:20:03. > :20:05.here and I wanted to come and support all the people that

:20:06. > :20:12.supported me. I'm really glad I came. What are the early indications

:20:13. > :20:15.you are hearing about your vote? I hear that we are above the Northern

:20:16. > :20:24.Ireland Conservative Party and the Green Party. I'm not sure where we

:20:25. > :20:27.are going to end up, but it's looking OK so far. Bearing in mind

:20:28. > :20:30.the contacts and the week we've had. Are you in or out of politics now? I

:20:31. > :20:34.never really thought I was in politics in a career way. I have a

:20:35. > :20:39.full-time job. You are standing for Europe. This is a movement for us,

:20:40. > :20:42.this is about people gathering together. It's not like a normal

:20:43. > :20:46.political party. We gathered together because we want change in

:20:47. > :20:52.Northern Ireland. We still believe there is more in Northern Ireland. I

:20:53. > :20:55.know that looking at the votes that we are probably in the status quo

:20:56. > :20:59.that we ever were, but I believe we have rocked things up a bit. We have

:21:00. > :21:04.certainly made people question how people are labelled, that we are all

:21:05. > :21:09.in some sort of way in one box or the other. I think we've done some

:21:10. > :21:13.very good things. But the designation row really crucified you

:21:14. > :21:20.at the end. A lot of things damaged us last week. I don't just think

:21:21. > :21:23.that was about designation. On polling day it was. You may think

:21:24. > :21:27.that but I think there were other things that affected the polling as

:21:28. > :21:31.well. I think that the designation question, it's been a challenge for

:21:32. > :21:35.us internally since the inception of the party. I will not shy away from

:21:36. > :21:39.the fact that I've always been very convinced there should be cross

:21:40. > :21:43.community. And therefore to be cross community we need to designate

:21:44. > :21:47.others. We do believe that Northern Ireland, for a lot of reasons,

:21:48. > :21:52.actually sits better within the UK at this point, there's no doubt

:21:53. > :21:56.about it, economically and on a whole host of other areas. We think

:21:57. > :22:00.you can still believe that but you can shake off the shackles of

:22:01. > :22:05.unionism and nationalism. But you are going to leave it for now, you

:22:06. > :22:09.are not going to take an active role? I won't be taking any

:22:10. > :22:14.leadership role. I'm going to step back. I've given a year to the

:22:15. > :22:17.party, I'm going to step back, take stock, spent some time with my

:22:18. > :22:24.lovely babies and husband and see where I go from there. But I'm still

:22:25. > :22:26.bogus dash back I'm still focused on my business career. Some people

:22:27. > :22:29.might say you have bailed out, you've left early, you should stay

:22:30. > :22:34.on and take an active role. You were the face a big European campaign,

:22:35. > :22:39.why would you not stay on? Well, it's been a very difficult time. I

:22:40. > :22:47.have had an experience in politics that I wouldn't want anyone else to

:22:48. > :22:51.have, to be frank. If we were only fighting the orange and green of the

:22:52. > :22:54.last century we might have stood a chance. But there are so many other

:22:55. > :23:02.things in this political world that I wasn't really equipped for all

:23:03. > :23:06.expecting. So I think it's a lot for public representatives to stand up.

:23:07. > :23:10.I've certainly got a respect for a lot of the politicians because I see

:23:11. > :23:15.the world that they are in. It is not a lovely world, it is not all

:23:16. > :23:22.the razzle-dazzle that some people might think. Is NI21 as a project

:23:23. > :23:25.finished? I would hope not. You saw me surrounded by the candidates

:23:26. > :23:30.earlier. They've got that passion, as have I, but we have to wait and

:23:31. > :23:37.see what the next weeks bring out. I will support those candidates and do

:23:38. > :23:41.what I can to help but I've certainly lead and done a lot of

:23:42. > :23:46.work up until now. Thank you very much.

:23:47. > :23:53.Tina McKenzie, the NI21 candidate, who said, we've certainly rocked

:23:54. > :23:58.things up a bit. Depending on how you look at it, a bit of an

:23:59. > :24:03.understatement! Certainly provided a lot of copy for us journalists, not

:24:04. > :24:06.all of the most savoury. In terms of rocking up the political scene, they

:24:07. > :24:11.don't seem to have done that. We were looking at about 3000 votes for

:24:12. > :24:14.them, no doubt they will go up before we've got all the votes

:24:15. > :24:18.counted, but if it ends up being about 2%, that's not what they would

:24:19. > :24:22.have wanted. They will no doubt try and get their act together but we

:24:23. > :24:24.just heard Tina McKenzie say she still believes that controversial

:24:25. > :24:29.decision on dropping the Unionist label was the right want to make. As

:24:30. > :24:33.a postmortem that this very small party still has to have, quite apart

:24:34. > :24:36.from all the other issues, there is still a divide their between those

:24:37. > :24:42.who think they got it wrong and those who got it right on that. I've

:24:43. > :24:45.just seen John McAllister walking past, he was going in a different

:24:46. > :24:49.direction from the way Tina McKenzie was going. I've also heard that

:24:50. > :24:53.Basil McCrea is due to be here. It will be interesting to see if

:24:54. > :24:55.there's a conversation between Basil McCrea and John McAllister. I gather

:24:56. > :24:59.that they spoke to each other for the first time in several days on

:25:00. > :25:06.Saturday night. I gather that was cordial conversation, but Basil has

:25:07. > :25:10.not taken up John's invitation for him to stand aside. I was talking to

:25:11. > :25:12.some of the local government candidates earlier, and they were

:25:13. > :25:17.saying they really don't know where they stand at all. It will be very

:25:18. > :25:20.interesting if there is a conversation between the two men in

:25:21. > :25:24.this area, with the camera crews and so on. It's not a very private place

:25:25. > :25:29.to sit down and resolve your differences. I suspect it Basil

:25:30. > :25:32.McCrea arrives, we will see the camera crews and so on. It's not a

:25:33. > :25:34.very private place to sit down and resolve your differences. I suspect

:25:35. > :25:36.it Basil McCrea arrives, we will see the cameras gathering round quickly.

:25:37. > :25:38.Arlene, there is one way of interpreting some of the figures,

:25:39. > :25:43.certainly the draft because we are getting, and also the figures we saw

:25:44. > :25:47.at the weekend for the locals. Unionists shifted to the right did

:25:48. > :25:52.better than unionists who stayed in the centre or were rather more

:25:53. > :25:55.towards the left, is that a fair interpretation of things? I don't

:25:56. > :26:00.think we can make any assessment until we see what the figure is for

:26:01. > :26:04.the European election. Diane fought a very good campaign, very much

:26:05. > :26:06.putting forward the whole agenda of standing up for Northern Ireland,

:26:07. > :26:10.moving Northern Ireland forward within the UK and Europe. A very

:26:11. > :26:13.interesting view, when you look across Europe and say the way in

:26:14. > :26:18.which the parties have shifted to the right. In the main, I accept

:26:19. > :26:21.that in Greece it is the anti-austerity party that is moving

:26:22. > :26:26.ahead there. But if you look at firms, that has been a very dramatic

:26:27. > :26:30.shift to the right. I think a lot of countries now are looking to their

:26:31. > :26:34.national identity and seeing Europe as a threat to their national

:26:35. > :26:40.independence. That is going to be the dialogue that takes place in

:26:41. > :26:41.Europe after these elections. Back-in Northern Ireland

:26:42. > :26:47.specifically, Mike Nesbitt, for example, he was leading his party

:26:48. > :26:51.into an election for the first time. He's got about ten councillors more

:26:52. > :26:54.than he had been expecting to have. Many people are saying that because

:26:55. > :26:58.he took the party to the right, towards the DUP, rather than stating

:26:59. > :27:02.precisely where he was in the middle. I use the word liberal with

:27:03. > :27:07.him the other day and he said, I don't really like the word liberal.

:27:08. > :27:13.It's not a dramatic turn out for them. They had a good election, if

:27:14. > :27:17.you take 0.9%... He thinks it's dramatic but he has ten extra

:27:18. > :27:21.counsellors, that's very good for them. What we need to focus on is

:27:22. > :27:26.how we can now work together to make Northern Ireland a better place for

:27:27. > :27:29.everybody and to move forward in a way that is conducive to everyone

:27:30. > :27:34.living here. Whether we go right, left or centre, what is important is

:27:35. > :27:37.we can articulate for the people of Northern Ireland in Europe and

:27:38. > :27:42.Westminster, and that is something we pride ourselves on in the

:27:43. > :27:45.Democratic Unionist Party. It is important you are linked back to

:27:46. > :27:50.Westminster and to Stormont, so that we can make those connections. If

:27:51. > :27:53.you take the Presbyterian Mutual Society, which was a very big issue

:27:54. > :27:58.in Northern Ireland, I was able to work with Diane to make that

:27:59. > :28:04.solution come about, and that was through working through Europe. I'd

:28:05. > :28:07.be interested to find out what the vote within unionism, which I do

:28:08. > :28:12.think has rewarded those who are either moving towards the right or

:28:13. > :28:15.however you want to determine it, a more hardline agenda, what impact

:28:16. > :28:21.that has on any efforts to resuscitate those issues in the

:28:22. > :28:26.House talks. I think that has been postponed, maybe whilst some of the

:28:27. > :28:29.parties cogitate on these figures. I don't think it is particularly

:28:30. > :28:33.helpful from the point of view from any kind of compromise from the

:28:34. > :28:38.parties on those tough issues. I'm sure the DUP will think, yeah, we

:28:39. > :28:42.made the right decision there and we might have suffered more of a

:28:43. > :28:46.decrease if we hadn't made that decision. , maybe, to look at your

:28:47. > :28:49.situation as far as the local elections are concerned, was there a

:28:50. > :28:55.bit of uncharacteristic mismanagement of the Sinn Fein vote?

:28:56. > :29:01.You lost a couple of seats in your area that maybe you'd hope to get.

:29:02. > :29:06.West Belfast, a seat went to people before profit Alliance. Donnelly, a

:29:07. > :29:10.critic of the Sinn Fein strategy, picked up a seat there, an

:29:11. > :29:18.independent Republican. You may be pleased with how it went but it

:29:19. > :29:22.could have done better. We were in new boundaries in a lot of cases

:29:23. > :29:26.with new candidates, four out of our five candidates in South Armagh were

:29:27. > :29:31.standing for the first time. We were trying to divide what was previously

:29:32. > :29:34.two DEA into one and trying to shape the results across five candidates

:29:35. > :29:39.which is a big challenge. Similarly in the Armagh district, as well.

:29:40. > :29:43.People Before Profit candidate stood in a by-election and got 1700 votes.

:29:44. > :29:48.I don't think there was any real surprise there. But of course every

:29:49. > :29:52.party will be generally pleased. At a local level in certain areas,

:29:53. > :29:55.certainly in my own area, we will have felt that we had a good

:29:56. > :29:58.election. But there were improvements that could be made. I

:29:59. > :30:02.think we will do what we always do, go back and learn lessons from that

:30:03. > :30:05.and come back better the next time. Connor, I was wondering, we were

:30:06. > :30:10.talking about whether there could be an impact in the election result on

:30:11. > :30:14.a Haas deal with the unionists, equally on your side when you see

:30:15. > :30:17.some independents doing well is that something you have to bear in mind

:30:18. > :30:20.when you think about issues like welfare reform? Potentially one

:30:21. > :30:22.could have said there is an opportunity immediately you have the

:30:23. > :30:25.election over to try and work out a deal on welfare reform but you have

:30:26. > :30:29.to bear them in mind? We have to bear in mind is the impact that

:30:30. > :30:32.issues like welfare reform have on people. It's not a political

:30:33. > :30:38.consideration. It's a consideration of the conconstitute yepts that are

:30:39. > :30:42.suffering -- constituents that are suffering as a result of the

:30:43. > :30:49.austerity measures. That's our primary concern. But there are

:30:50. > :30:53.certain issues that we obviously want to see satisfied. It isn't just

:30:54. > :30:57.about worrying about a single councillor in a single constituency.

:30:58. > :31:01.It's actually about worrying about the impact that those decisions will

:31:02. > :31:06.have on a vast number of people across all constituencies. In terms

:31:07. > :31:10.of the narrative around Haas, as well, Haas has gone. We are now in a

:31:11. > :31:16.different scenario. We should name it as such, because we are not on

:31:17. > :31:21.that agenda any more. You come up with a better name. I will give you

:31:22. > :31:25.one. We will look at the picture elsewhere. Thank you very much for

:31:26. > :31:27.now. We are dominated by the picture here in Northern Ireland this

:31:28. > :31:31.afternoon, but we will be hearing how that fits in with the rest of

:31:32. > :31:36.the UK and the Repebble throughout our time on air. -- Republic

:31:37. > :31:42.throughout our time on air. Some of the big parties reeling at

:31:43. > :31:48.Westminster, the Liberal Democrats have a solicitor tree representative

:31:49. > :31:52.-- solidarity representative. I am joined by our correspondent. You

:31:53. > :31:57.have been looking at the picture developing there for us. I suppose

:31:58. > :32:02.the big story has to be that at the top of the leader board it's UKIP.

:32:03. > :32:05.Of course. An amazing result for Nigel Farage and UKIP. Everybody

:32:06. > :32:09.thought that UKIP would do well. I don't think people thought they

:32:10. > :32:13.would do as well as they've done. They've topped the poll, and this

:32:14. > :32:18.afternoon they took an MEP out of Scotland. A great night for Nigel

:32:19. > :32:22.Farage. He is the politician with the biggest smile today. Obviously

:32:23. > :32:25.Labour are in second place. The Tories pushed into third place,

:32:26. > :32:30.that's a position they're not used to. The Lib Dems all the way down in

:32:31. > :32:36.6th place with just one MEP. At one stage last night we thought the Lib

:32:37. > :32:40.Dems wouldn't get anybody but they've got one MEP. A great night

:32:41. > :32:44.for UKIP and a terrible night for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems. He has

:32:45. > :32:49.some serious questions to answer now, doesn't he? Can he survive?

:32:50. > :33:03.Well, I think he can survive for the time being. He has quite a lot of

:33:04. > :33:10.allies, Menzies Campbell and Paddy Ashdown have been offering support.

:33:11. > :33:14.One Liverpool MP likened the situation to Generals at the Somme.

:33:15. > :33:18.Nick Clegg says he is not going to stand down. He is going to tough it

:33:19. > :33:22.out, although there are lots of postmortems taking place at the

:33:23. > :33:27.moment behind closed doors, at Lib HQ, Tory HQ and Liberal HQ,

:33:28. > :33:29.naturally. Two things are going to happen, people will read the results

:33:30. > :33:35.to the Westminster election in less than 12 months' time and I suppose

:33:36. > :33:38.the other issue is it puts the issue of the referendum again - not that

:33:39. > :33:42.it's been away from the top of the agenda, but it's back there in

:33:43. > :33:45.capital letters, isn't it? Let's deal with both those points. The

:33:46. > :33:50.referendum, you are right, we are going to hear this time and time

:33:51. > :33:54.again, we heard it a lot today. David Cameron has talked about this

:33:55. > :33:58.referendum in 2017 although he is coming under pressure to bring that

:33:59. > :34:02.forward. There is pressure also on Ed Miliband, people are saying why

:34:03. > :34:05.can't Labour come out and support a referendum? That's going to be a

:34:06. > :34:08.buzzword in British politics. Looking to the general election,

:34:09. > :34:13.which is just a year away, you have to be very careful. These results

:34:14. > :34:17.come with a health warning. People vote at European elections in

:34:18. > :34:21.different ways at general elections. All right, thank you very much for

:34:22. > :34:28.that summary of the situation across the UK. Let's look at some pictures

:34:29. > :34:34.now. Basil McCrea is arriving at the count centre here at the King's Hall

:34:35. > :34:42.in Balmoral. That I believe is him checking his accreditation to make

:34:43. > :34:47.sure - yes, I think it is. When you arrive you are given a wristband and

:34:48. > :34:49.there is the band. A lot of photographers taking photographs, a

:34:50. > :34:57.lot of flash photography there. Basil McCrea, like the rest of us,

:34:58. > :35:04.is wearing his wristband. He gets a pink one.

:35:05. > :35:07.Martin McGuinness, the Deputy First Minister, arrived with Martina

:35:08. > :35:15.Anderson, the Sinn Fein candidate a few moments ago. These are pictures

:35:16. > :35:19.we recorded a short time ago. They had to go through the same process

:35:20. > :35:26.of accreditation. They've got the wristbands on, as well. Politicians

:35:27. > :35:31.- Arlene Foster is waving her pink band. Connor Murphy? I slipped in

:35:32. > :35:36.under the tent. I hope it's still there, yes. Mark and I have fetching

:35:37. > :35:40.purple. UKIP colours. Somebody pointed out they match my socks.

:35:41. > :35:44.That was not by choice, that was purely by accident. You can read

:35:45. > :35:50.nothing into the colour of my socks, I can assure you. The media were

:35:51. > :35:54.court in between, Martin McGuinness and Martina Anderson arrived and

:35:55. > :36:02.Basil McCrea in quick succession and the cameramen didn't know where to

:36:03. > :36:08.turn. You can see over the shoulder what's going on. Trying to see

:36:09. > :36:13.what's happening. He has gone now. We should explain politicians with

:36:14. > :36:17.their fancy pink wristbands go further behind the crash barriers

:36:18. > :36:25.then we do. They get into a sort of VIP area. I wouldn't call it VIP!

:36:26. > :36:33.It's very plush in there, Arlene. Not! He is there with Johnny

:36:34. > :36:35.McCarthy, the newly elected councillor, they're making their way

:36:36. > :36:42.to the count area. Several other candidates there, the chap with the

:36:43. > :36:51.beard and the glasses is Ian Dixon who stood in East Belfast. He was on

:36:52. > :37:00.The View on Thursday night. Trendy spectacles, you are right. You have

:37:01. > :37:03.to say that Bass Bass -- ska -- Basil McCrea, whatever happens in

:37:04. > :37:07.regards to allegations, he has turned up here, others may have

:37:08. > :37:11.shied away. He is never somebody to shy away into a corner. He is

:37:12. > :37:16.deciding to continue with his sort of role in public life, which I

:37:17. > :37:19.suppose people may have been asking questions about during the week. We

:37:20. > :37:22.will see if he is going to do any interviews with the media. Maybe he

:37:23. > :37:30.will join us on our election set. Maybe he will talk to Tara. We, no

:37:31. > :37:38.doubt, will be endeavouring to have a word in his ear. Just a quick word

:37:39. > :37:41.about the broader UK picture. You didn't hear what Stephen Walker was

:37:42. > :37:45.saying there, I think, you will know the situation is that UKIP are at

:37:46. > :37:48.the top of that league table across the water. There are serious issues

:37:49. > :37:51.for the Conservatives and for Labour, not topping the table for

:37:52. > :37:55.the first time in an election in the UK for a very long time, but real

:37:56. > :37:58.problems for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems, aren't there? Absolutely. I

:37:59. > :38:03.think Nick Clegg's going to be under a lot of pressure, just as Eamon

:38:04. > :38:07.Gilmore is under pressure in Dublin. It seems to be a career problem with

:38:08. > :38:11.being the junior partner in a coalition. Yes, that's going to

:38:12. > :38:14.cause problems. In terms of how it might affect the situation here,

:38:15. > :38:18.it's less obviously easy to say but if things are more in the pelting

:38:19. > :38:22.pot come the Westminster election of next year it could well be that

:38:23. > :38:25.brings Arlene and her colleagues in the DUP into the mix because if we

:38:26. > :38:30.are getting into a period where there is a number of parties trying

:38:31. > :38:36.to work together to make administrations or arrangements it

:38:37. > :38:41.could feature the DUP which often the London pundits don't consider.

:38:42. > :38:47.Could this be a factor in the Scottish referendum? The SNP was

:38:48. > :38:51.fighting UKIP. UKIP did get an MEP in Scotland but the SNP maybe in

:38:52. > :38:55.their independence referendum may deploy the argument, if you want to

:38:56. > :38:57.stay in Europe, go for an independent Scotland because what's

:38:58. > :39:01.going to happen south of the border with all these UKIP people? Nigel

:39:02. > :39:05.Farage, of course, I don't know how you feel about this, Arlene, he is

:39:06. > :39:10.saying that his big pitch for the Westminster election is that he

:39:11. > :39:14.would hold the balance of power in any Westminster situation in 12

:39:15. > :39:19.months' time. They topped the table, 23 MEPs. That's a very significant

:39:20. > :39:24.increase on last time around. 23 out of 73 I think. He is a formidable

:39:25. > :39:27.force at the moment, could that translate to Westminster, do you

:39:28. > :39:30.think? Well, just looking at the national papers this morning,

:39:31. > :39:33.they're saying they don't think it's going to translate into very many

:39:34. > :39:38.MPs but it will be interesting to see the by-election that's coming up

:39:39. > :39:41.now where UKIP are standing, a very credible candidate, to see if he can

:39:42. > :39:45.take that seat and to see what happens after that. I do think in

:39:46. > :39:48.terms of Alex Salmond's point about vote for us, because we are

:39:49. > :39:52.pro-European, they're going to have to get into that discussion about

:39:53. > :39:57.negotiating to get back into Europe if it were the case that the rest of

:39:58. > :40:01.Great Britain left. OK. We need to leave it there, thank you very much.

:40:02. > :40:06.Tara has been joined, I gather, by Basil McCrea.

:40:07. > :40:10.Yes, Basil McCrea is giving some support here to his winning

:40:11. > :40:15.candidate. Yes, indeed. There was some suggestion you wouldn't come

:40:16. > :40:19.today. Why ever not? I mean, what I want to say at the start is that I

:40:20. > :40:23.am really pleased, really proud of all the people that fought this

:40:24. > :40:26.campaign, all of the candidates, all of the people that supported them,

:40:27. > :40:33.all of the people that voted for them. That's been great. Where do

:40:34. > :40:38.you stand now, John McCallister has called on you to step aside while an

:40:39. > :40:42.-- while an investigation takes place? You know I would love to talk

:40:43. > :40:48.about this, I am not shy about talking about things, but I have to

:40:49. > :40:52.tell you this, I cannot say anything because I am instigating legal

:40:53. > :40:55.action and my lawyers have said to me, you cannot speak. It's an

:40:56. > :40:58.instruction. So those matters will be dealt with through the proper

:40:59. > :41:02.channels at some stage in the future. That's all I really want to

:41:03. > :41:06.say on the matter. Legal action against whom, you can tell us that.

:41:07. > :41:10.I have made my position quite clear. I have come here to support the

:41:11. > :41:14.candidates, to look at the vote, to give thanks to the people that

:41:15. > :41:19.supported us, with regard to the other matters you have raised - I

:41:20. > :41:24.would love to sit and talk to you all about - there are things that

:41:25. > :41:28.need to be said. But because I have instigated legal action on the

:41:29. > :41:31.advice, on the instruction of my lawyers, I cannot talk about that

:41:32. > :41:35.issue. You are still the leader of NI21? I think we have just finished

:41:36. > :41:48.now and I am going to have a cup of tea with my friends.

:41:49. > :41:51.Basil perhaps not as forthcoming as he normally is, Mark. People at home

:41:52. > :41:55.will have caught that. We were listening, as well. Just to be

:41:56. > :41:58.clear, he says there is much he would like to be able to say but he

:41:59. > :42:02.can't at the moment because on the advice of his solicitor he has been

:42:03. > :42:05.asked not to say anything because he is instigating legal action at some

:42:06. > :42:09.stage in future. When he was asked against whom or what organisation he

:42:10. > :42:16.wouldn't specify. Yeah, that's left us guessing a little bit. We do know

:42:17. > :42:19.that his deputy leader - these allegations about inappropriate

:42:20. > :42:26.behaviour made by a former NI21 staff member to an outside agency

:42:27. > :42:30.called Care Call, but that I wouldn't think you could term would

:42:31. > :42:36.be legal action. They're an agency that deals with employment and

:42:37. > :42:40.mediation issues. I am not clear about from what Basil McCrea was

:42:41. > :42:43.saying is whether he is going to instigate some defamation action

:42:44. > :42:47.which I suppose it will be open to him to do or whether there is some

:42:48. > :42:52.other proceedings or some complaint that's been made against him. It

:42:53. > :42:55.continues, that's our colleague there who I think is probably doing

:42:56. > :43:02.an interview for radio at the moment. I suspect so. Our camera is

:43:03. > :43:07.listening in but it's not easy to hear what he is say, it may be he is

:43:08. > :43:13.repeating what he said to us a few moments ago. You can see huge

:43:14. > :43:17.interest. I can see there a reporter, for example, from the

:43:18. > :43:21.Irish Times on the right. All the newspapers there, all the other

:43:22. > :43:26.media outlets. They're keen to hear what he has to say. It's puzzling as

:43:27. > :43:30.to what's going on here in the election count centre, it's almost

:43:31. > :43:34.like we are seeing a sort of vying for the mantle of NI21, whatever is

:43:35. > :43:40.left of it, between the two different wings. You have Basil

:43:41. > :43:45.McCrea wanting to be seen alongside their one victorious candidate. You

:43:46. > :43:49.had John McCallister also wanting to be seen. You have two different

:43:50. > :43:55.wings of the party. We are trying to see, not just which reporters are

:43:56. > :43:59.huddled around the politicians, but which activists are. His caravan has

:44:00. > :44:03.stopped about three yards on and he is doing another series of

:44:04. > :44:07.interviews for other media outlets. I am glad we got in first. The one

:44:08. > :44:14.elected representative who they have had on the NI21 ticket is not

:44:15. > :44:18.distancing himself in any way. Arlene is pointing out there are at

:44:19. > :44:25.least six or seven candidates there, maybe a couple more than that who

:44:26. > :44:35.are part of that moving caravan with Basil. Some of the candidates,

:44:36. > :44:40.whatever happens in relation to these allegations, they felt that

:44:41. > :44:44.John McAllister had betrayed them by going public on the way he did on

:44:45. > :44:49.the eve of poll, about the whole reason -- the whole redesignation.

:44:50. > :44:53.Maybe you have these different wings with very strong views on this rift.

:44:54. > :45:00.Let's go back to Tara, who has now been joined by the leader of the

:45:01. > :45:08.Alliance Party, David Ford. What are you hearing about the vote

:45:09. > :45:14.here today? They are still piling up papers. It's a mug's game to predict

:45:15. > :45:18.it at this stage. Anna Lo's vote is holding up very well. I suspect we

:45:19. > :45:24.will see a modest increase on last time, but it is a mug's game to

:45:25. > :45:27.predict too much. We were told in east Belfast that the word long was

:45:28. > :45:33.toxic, Michael Long topped a poll. We were told that that because of

:45:34. > :45:39.various remarks that Anna had made that she was toxic and that didn't

:45:40. > :45:43.work either. Do you think you could have done better? When you say you

:45:44. > :45:47.are a party for everyone with people from all sorts of backgrounds,

:45:48. > :45:52.someone expressing a view is hardly controversial because that is not

:45:53. > :45:55.what defines alliance. It's a commitment to building a united

:45:56. > :45:58.community shared future for all of us. It seems to me that Anna has

:45:59. > :46:02.polled well across Northern Ireland, as our council candidates

:46:03. > :46:13.polled generally well. What would you like to see her come out with

:46:14. > :46:16.this time? I'm not going to predict anything at this stage. We were

:46:17. > :46:18.starting from 5.5% last time. I think we will see a modest increase

:46:19. > :46:24.on that. What happens next for the Alliance party, where are we

:46:25. > :46:28.actually going? I thought the DUP started a hullabaloo about east

:46:29. > :46:31.Belfast before we even started finishing council -- to the council

:46:32. > :46:36.votes. My colleagues will continue to do what they do, Naomi at

:46:37. > :46:40.Westminster, Stephen, the departments we have responsibility

:46:41. > :46:45.for and councillors in the old and new councils. We are about

:46:46. > :46:48.representing people, bringing things together and promoting the community

:46:49. > :46:51.that the society needs. I'm not sure whether we will see serious

:46:52. > :46:54.engagement by the leaders of the five parties in the immediate

:46:55. > :46:57.future. I'm not sure that Mike Nesbitt is going to come back to the

:46:58. > :47:01.talks that he walked away from. But we badly need to resolve those

:47:02. > :47:05.issues of the past, parades and flags. Those hit issues have to be

:47:06. > :47:13.resolved if we are to make society better for us. I'm committed to

:47:14. > :47:15.going into those talks whenever it may happen. But it looks as though

:47:16. > :47:18.we will not be having those talks tomorrow. We need to get other

:47:19. > :47:20.parties around the table and engaging seriously. Do you think

:47:21. > :47:24.that is likely given that another election is only 12 months away? If

:47:25. > :47:27.we can't have the talks now than we won't have them for the next 12

:47:28. > :47:30.months after that because there is only 12 months away? If we can't

:47:31. > :47:35.have the talks now than we won't have them for the next 12 months

:47:36. > :47:41.after that because issues on parades and flags. Those who are victims of

:47:42. > :47:46.the past can't wait for a piecemeal solution to the occasional inquest

:47:47. > :47:49.to some of the work. We need to get some of those structures which were

:47:50. > :47:54.proposed by emus Bradley or the victims commissioners or by Richard

:47:55. > :47:56.Haass into play, because we have a huge moral obligation as well as a

:47:57. > :47:59.legal obligation to deal with those matters. For people to simply play

:48:00. > :48:05.politics at this stage because they are worried about an election 12

:48:06. > :48:07.months away would be reprehensible. What about that election? They are

:48:08. > :48:14.worried about an election 12 months away would be reprehensible. What

:48:15. > :48:24.about that election? Naomi pact in east Belfast? I can only go on what

:48:25. > :48:27.Naomi heard Gavin Robinson say when he was pleading with other people to

:48:28. > :48:29.stand aside for him. She won the election fair and square last time.

:48:30. > :48:34.People voted for her on her record on public service in Council and as

:48:35. > :48:39.LM -- MLA. Do try to extrapolate, as the DUP have pretended to do, the

:48:40. > :48:44.four election areas aren't actually east Belfast. Secondly, we all know

:48:45. > :48:47.that smaller parties pick up votes in an SDLP election when it probably

:48:48. > :48:52.don't stand candidates in the full election. We note because of what we

:48:53. > :48:57.saw in Leicestershire, when there is a Long on the ballot paper there is

:48:58. > :49:01.an extremely strong Alliance vote. Where you encouraged by the comments

:49:02. > :49:04.that if there was going to be an electoral pact it would be more

:49:05. > :49:07.likely it would be an Ulster Unionist candidates that would

:49:08. > :49:11.stand, which would suggest there won't be won? I also heard him say

:49:12. > :49:19.they had their best election result for 25 years. I think Mike needs to

:49:20. > :49:21.get a slight reality check, just the same as the DUP need to get a

:49:22. > :49:31.reality check. All kinds of things happening up

:49:32. > :49:38.here, but still no sign of any figures. We've got an interesting

:49:39. > :49:45.shot for you to look at here. Martin McGuinness having a bit of a chat

:49:46. > :49:51.with David McNary from UKIP. They are not coming to closely together

:49:52. > :50:00.there. There is clear, blue air between them. It looks like David

:50:01. > :50:04.McNary is giving Maarten a bit of a talking to there. It was congenial

:50:05. > :50:11.at the end. There's a lot of that going on. Of course, all the public

:50:12. > :50:15.fighting has been done, all the policy arguments, we are all now in

:50:16. > :50:19.the same boat in that we are essentially waiting upon the result.

:50:20. > :50:25.People are courteous to each other. That is the best way that politics

:50:26. > :50:28.can be done. We probably disagree on quite a lot of issues and have very

:50:29. > :50:34.opposing viewpoints, but that doesn't stop you being courteous to

:50:35. > :50:38.people. The starting gun has been fired now for the election cycle.

:50:39. > :50:43.These elections are done and dusted, and we are going to get the

:50:44. > :50:48.figures for the Euro elections this afternoon. But it's back to business

:50:49. > :50:51.at Stormont tomorrow, back to business in Westminster. You don't

:50:52. > :50:55.take your seat but you are over there and take part in meetings and

:50:56. > :50:58.so forth. We are less than 12 months away from the Westminster election.

:50:59. > :51:02.Can serious business be done politically here in Northern Ireland

:51:03. > :51:05.between the parties, or is it inevitable, not just for the next 12

:51:06. > :51:09.months but for the next 24 months until we get the next Assembly

:51:10. > :51:15.elections out of the way, that all parties will be looking over their

:51:16. > :51:20.shoulders? If that is the case, it will be doing a great disservice to

:51:21. > :51:25.the people elected. I know a party leader meeting is scheduled

:51:26. > :51:32.tomorrow, to discuss the Richard Haass process... Is that going

:51:33. > :51:37.ahead? It was scheduled but whether it happens tomorrow or not... There

:51:38. > :51:41.was a lot of speculation it wasn't happening. If it's not, we should be

:51:42. > :51:45.getting down to those types of discussion quickly. The issues are

:51:46. > :51:48.in the past, parading and cultural issues, should have been dealt with

:51:49. > :51:52.at Christmas. There's nothing stopping us dealing with them in the

:51:53. > :51:57.run-up to the election. We should be getting back down to them. Whatever

:51:58. > :52:01.political parties and the cycle of elections we are in, the people that

:52:02. > :52:06.we represent are facing these issues daily. We have a responsibility to

:52:07. > :52:10.try and get them resolved. Should be getting back down to it this week,

:52:11. > :52:16.says our Sinn Fein panellist. You are keen to make the post we are in

:52:17. > :52:19.a post-Richard Haass scenario. Is there any sense of urgency on the

:52:20. > :52:25.part of the Unionist family to get this matter resolved once and for

:52:26. > :52:29.all before we have 11 new super councils fighting over flags? It's

:52:30. > :52:33.very important we do move on. We were in paralysis coming up to these

:52:34. > :52:37.elections because we didn't deal with big issues like welfare reform.

:52:38. > :52:42.We have to deal with those issues. Is it easier to do that now? We must

:52:43. > :52:45.grasp that opportunity now. The electorate will not forgive us if we

:52:46. > :52:48.don't. I'm not sure how big the window is, but we need to get

:52:49. > :53:02.dealing with these issues before the end of the year. You are right, once

:53:03. > :53:04.the turn of the year comes, we are then into Westminster election

:53:05. > :53:06.campaigns. We need to deal with this, particularly on welfare reform

:53:07. > :53:09.because it has such massive impact all about budgets within the

:53:10. > :53:16.executive. I'm getting word in my ear, the turnout is almost 10% up on

:53:17. > :53:23.2009, extra votes this time around. The figure that we had was 51 point

:53:24. > :53:31.84%. It was 43 the last time. That does explain, at least in part, why

:53:32. > :53:36.the counting is so slow. It is coming up to 3:10 p.m.. I'm being

:53:37. > :53:42.told 4pm before we see any white smoke. They've got more pieces of

:53:43. > :53:47.paper to work their way through. As I said earlier, it's not because

:53:48. > :53:51.there have been some huge new interest in Europe, I don't quite

:53:52. > :53:54.see it as anyway parallel with what happened with UKIP in England and

:53:55. > :53:57.them being able to put the whole European issue on the table. I think

:53:58. > :54:01.it's probably more to do with the fact we've got a combined election

:54:02. > :54:06.this time. If you weren't ready to come out on the European issue, you

:54:07. > :54:10.might come out to help the council down the road. Very fortuitously,

:54:11. > :54:15.Tara has just been joined by someone who maybe can give us a bit of an

:54:16. > :54:20.idea of what to expect. She's talking to Graeme Sheils, the chief

:54:21. > :54:26.electoral officer. With some news on turnout. We have

:54:27. > :54:30.somewhere in the region of 630,000 votes here today to process will

:54:31. > :54:39.stop that is well up on the figures from 2009. It was 480,000 or

:54:40. > :54:49.thereabouts. Around 10%? Maybe a bit over. It is turnout today. Compared

:54:50. > :54:52.to just over 42% in 2009. Just explained that those who don't know

:54:53. > :54:56.why that would then take a bit longer. There's a substantial

:54:57. > :54:59.additional volume of paper and boats to count and process, so that has

:55:00. > :55:03.obviously contributed to the extended time it has taken to

:55:04. > :55:07.complete the first stage of the count. The fact we are quite busy at

:55:08. > :55:17.this end of the hall is significant. It still means there some way to go,

:55:18. > :55:19.is that right? There is the accent will move further down the room as

:55:20. > :55:22.things progress. We are coming to the end of the stage behind us here.

:55:23. > :55:24.Then there will be calculation is done, hopefully somewhere between

:55:25. > :55:29.4pm and 4:30pm we should be in a position to give some more

:55:30. > :55:33.information. Is that a confident prediction considering that when we

:55:34. > :55:39.arrived today it was 2:30pm we would get the first preference votes? Will

:55:40. > :55:43.that slip a bit more? Hopefully not. I never said between 2pm and 2:30

:55:44. > :55:47.p.m.. It takes as long as it takes to get the thing done accurately.

:55:48. > :55:50.Everyone can see the staff have worked hard and consistently put the

:55:51. > :55:55.effort required for doing the thing properly. It's important we get this

:55:56. > :55:59.right. Any idea how many candidates will be excluded in the first stage,

:56:00. > :56:07.once the first preference votes are counted? Daily it's not possible to

:56:08. > :56:10.say yet. When will you know that? Hopefully by 4pm or so, I should be

:56:11. > :56:14.in a position to have more information. If someone reaches the

:56:15. > :56:23.quota there will be a declaration of a candidate at 4pm to 4:30pm. That's

:56:24. > :56:26.not guaranteed either, is it? Nothing is guaranteed until

:56:27. > :56:29.everything is finalised. That is why I'm reticent about giving a

:56:30. > :56:32.cast-iron guarantee. But our best estimate at this stage is somewhat

:56:33. > :56:43.between 4pm and 4:30 p.m.. Very interesting to hear what he had

:56:44. > :56:48.to say there. We are in no great rush, it seems, folks. We will have

:56:49. > :56:52.to top up on coffee and a cup of tea in the moment so. The story in the

:56:53. > :56:58.Republic is very much of the success and rise of Sinn Fein, both at local

:56:59. > :57:04.councils and in Europe. Last night, the party's candidate in Dublin,

:57:05. > :57:08.Lynn Doyle, became the first MEP to be elected. I'm joined by our Dublin

:57:09. > :57:15.correspondent. An interesting situation unfolding. There is. There

:57:16. > :57:20.is growing speculation, unconfirmed, that Eamon Gilmore, the

:57:21. > :57:24.deputy Prime Minister and Minister of foreign affairs and leader of the

:57:25. > :57:29.Labour Party, may be about to resign within the next hour. Labour had a

:57:30. > :57:34.particularly bad local and European election campaign. Its vote in the

:57:35. > :57:39.2011 general election was around 19%. It slumped to 7% in the local

:57:40. > :57:44.elections and lost all three of its MEPs. There is speculation that Mr

:57:45. > :57:49.Gilmour may be about to resign full stop in terms of facts, although

:57:50. > :57:56.there is a recount in Dublin and it began at around 2:20pm, Lynn Boylan,

:57:57. > :57:58.the Sinn Fein candidate, is almost certainly going to be re-elected,

:57:59. > :58:04.her seat isn't in any danger. There are three seats in Dublin. She

:58:05. > :58:07.topped the poll late last night and was quickly elected as an MEP in the

:58:08. > :58:14.early hours of this morning. The recount is happening because the

:58:15. > :58:20.Green leader and candidate narrowly missed out on a seat. He finished

:58:21. > :58:24.about 1100 votes behind an independent. She was only 500 votes

:58:25. > :58:28.ahead of him. The recount was ordered, but the Sinn Fein 's seat

:58:29. > :58:32.is safe. The only other result we have is in the South constituency,

:58:33. > :58:40.Munster and South Leinster, where there has been an MEP elected, that

:58:41. > :58:43.is Brian Crowley. A phenomenal vote-getter who is in a wheelchair.

:58:44. > :58:48.He topped the poll and his boat has now been redistributed. In that

:58:49. > :58:54.constituency, Sinn Fein are almost certain to get elected and the

:58:55. > :58:57.party's Matkowski, in the Midlands, North and West constituency, is

:58:58. > :59:02.almost certainly going to get elected there. Perhaps the big story

:59:03. > :59:09.in that constituency will be the first count votes and probable

:59:10. > :59:12.election of the leftist campaigner, Luke Flanagan. He was probably

:59:13. > :59:17.better known as the legalise cannabis campaigner and a turf

:59:18. > :59:22.cutter champion. Like many people elected in the European Parliament

:59:23. > :59:27.over the last weekend, he is very critical of Brussels, believing that

:59:28. > :59:30.it sides too much with big business against ordinary people,

:59:31. > :59:35.particularly with what happened in Ireland with regard to the banking

:59:36. > :59:39.crisis in mind. That's a potential earthquake as far as politics in the

:59:40. > :59:42.South are concerned it Eamon Gilmore goes, he's the leader of the Labour

:59:43. > :59:46.Party, he is the Minister for foreign affairs and he is the

:59:47. > :59:52.tallest. That would be a very significant development. It would be

:59:53. > :59:56.a huge development. Questions have been raised throughout the day about

:59:57. > :00:00.his continuing leadership by various TDs. The rules of the Labour Party

:00:01. > :00:05.would make it very difficult for anybody to remove him but if he

:00:06. > :00:09.decides to fall on his sword, that's a very different matter. Already

:00:10. > :00:14.there is speculation about who might replace him. Will it be, for

:00:15. > :00:20.example, Brendan Howland from the old Labour Party? Eamon Gilmore will

:00:21. > :00:23.be seen by many as being on the Workers' Party, democratic left-wing

:00:24. > :00:28.of the party. The other name mentioned is Joan Bruton, the

:00:29. > :00:32.Minister for Social Responsibility. Both of those people are quite old

:00:33. > :00:38.and there is a move amongst TDs who want to see a much younger, fresher

:00:39. > :00:43.looking Labour leader and many of the current Labour Ministers

:00:44. > :00:48.voluntarily to resign so the party has a fresher look. Other people say

:00:49. > :00:54.Labour's problems go much deeper than changing the leader. Indeed, as

:00:55. > :00:58.one Labour Minister said at the weekend, if John The Baptist had

:00:59. > :01:04.been leading the Labour Party it wouldn't have made any difference,

:01:05. > :01:08.which was of course an unfortunate phrase or metaphor, because John The

:01:09. > :01:12.Baptist lost his head and it looks as though Eamon Gilmore might be

:01:13. > :01:17.about to surrender his head. Before we let you go, there is a lot

:01:18. > :01:22.happening there, what about Enda Kenny and the future for the

:01:23. > :01:28.coalition. Michael Martin may have had a reasonable enough campaign,

:01:29. > :01:30.Enda Kenny's results not good if the junior partner in the coalition is

:01:31. > :01:34.under pressure could we be looking at a general election sooner rather

:01:35. > :01:38.than we had expected, do you think in the Republic? Well, most of the

:01:39. > :01:44.attention has focussed on the Labour Party and in a sense a blind eye has

:01:45. > :01:48.been turned to how badly Fine Gael did. They dropped 12 percentage

:01:49. > :01:52.points on the last general election. Labour is going to be a much more

:01:53. > :01:58.needy party over the next two years. The general election was pencilled

:01:59. > :02:00.in for 2016, the centenary of the 1916 uprising. The Government still

:02:01. > :02:06.is in a very difficult position financially. It has to two 2 billion

:02:07. > :02:09.euro out of the economy with a Labour Party that's going to be a

:02:10. > :02:12.little bit more critical, more looking towards the future. For the

:02:13. > :02:16.first time questions are being asked about the stability of this

:02:17. > :02:20.coalition Government. The Labour Party probably has no other choice

:02:21. > :02:26.other than to stay in Government. Fascinating to hear from you, thank

:02:27. > :02:31.you very much. Let's come back to my guests here at

:02:32. > :02:37.the King's Hall in Belfast, just to chew that over a little bit. Connor

:02:38. > :02:40.Murphy, seismic changes potentially in the Republic at the moment, if

:02:41. > :02:45.Eamon Gilmore goes and that's informed speculation that he may

:02:46. > :02:52.fall on his sword, he is there the leader of the Labour Party, the

:02:53. > :02:57.Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Tanaiste, what impact will that have

:02:58. > :03:01.on domestic politics if he goes, it's speculative? I think it will

:03:02. > :03:04.have a significant impact and may have an impact on the future of the

:03:05. > :03:09.coalition and whether it's an able to run its course to 2016. Labour

:03:10. > :03:12.have had a disastrous election primarily because they've had a

:03:13. > :03:15.disastrous three years in Government. They made a series of

:03:16. > :03:21.promises going into the last general election in the south and proceeded

:03:22. > :03:24.to abandon them in Government with Fine Gael and seemed to have no

:03:25. > :03:29.compassion or understanding for the impact austerity policies were

:03:30. > :03:34.having on the broad public right across the south. In a way I am not

:03:35. > :03:38.surprised Labour's got the reaction it got. Lib Dems are getting a

:03:39. > :03:42.similar reaction in Britain. The junior partner in a coalition often

:03:43. > :03:46.bears the brunt of an unpopular Government from the people in

:03:47. > :03:50.mid-term elections and that's what's happening to Labour. It certainly

:03:51. > :03:55.will cause a significant rethink in Labour in relation to the policies,

:03:56. > :03:58.in terms of medical cards, water charges, and generally the austerity

:03:59. > :04:07.policies charges, and generally the austerity

:04:08. > :04:11.pushing through. What about the success in Dublin for Lynne Dolan.

:04:12. > :04:15.The recount is because the Green candidate thinks he may have taken a

:04:16. > :04:18.seat. There is a recount happening but she will be confirmed, there is

:04:19. > :04:26.no doubt about that, but I was following last night a lot of

:04:27. > :04:31.activity on Twitter and BBC's coverage of what was happening

:04:32. > :04:34.across the water and RTE's coverage. It's a huge result for her and I

:04:35. > :04:38.congratulate her, it's been an excellent result for her. She's not

:04:39. > :04:43.a person who had a high profile before that. She certainly is now.

:04:44. > :04:49.Absolutely and very able and capable candidate and April and capable MEP.

:04:50. > :04:54.It reflects growth at local Government level in Dublin, Dublin

:04:55. > :04:58.City Council and Sinn Fein has become a very significant player

:04:59. > :05:03.across the city of Dublin and people in the south will tell you that

:05:04. > :05:06.Dublin is really the cockpit for any general election going forward,

:05:07. > :05:10.that's where the bulk of the TDs can make or break who forms a

:05:11. > :05:13.Government. I think it's very encouraging for us to be in the

:05:14. > :05:18.capital city to be the largest party. I want to go down and hear

:05:19. > :05:21.more from Tara who has a few more numbers which we might find

:05:22. > :05:26.interesting. Back to the figures, yes. Nicolas,

:05:27. > :05:31.what can you tell us about this turnout and we are the top of a

:05:32. > :05:34.league apparently? That's true. 51% turnout in Northern Ireland is

:05:35. > :05:42.considerably better than the 33% from the UK as a whole. It's

:05:43. > :05:46.actually better than the 44% average turnout across the European Union.

:05:47. > :05:54.That was up the merest tick from last time, 44. 1 compared to 44. 0.

:05:55. > :05:59.Diane Dodds arriving with her husband, Nigel Dodds. Interesting to

:06:00. > :06:05.see how the DUP vote shapes up here. It is. My sense is that she will do

:06:06. > :06:11.better than on her first outing last time. The latest tallies I have been

:06:12. > :06:15.getting with DUP around 23%, Sinn Fein 28%. So DUP second but not as

:06:16. > :06:19.far behind as they had been previously. Perhaps she was a bit

:06:20. > :06:23.more of an unknown quantity the last time but she's made a big play this

:06:24. > :06:26.time about being one of the most hard-working MEPs and one of the

:06:27. > :06:32.best attenders in the whole of Europe. I would say all three of the

:06:33. > :06:35.MEPs are pretty hard-working and diligent in their attention to

:06:36. > :06:39.duties, I wouldn't want to split hairs between them on that basis. In

:06:40. > :06:43.terms of her campaign she made a big play of that in her electoral

:06:44. > :06:47.broadcast. And reasonably so. When it comes to what's happening here,

:06:48. > :06:51.just describe why there's still so much activity at this end and what

:06:52. > :06:54.happens once we get closer to getting a candidate elected. It's

:06:55. > :06:58.important to make sure every vote is counted and is counted accurately in

:06:59. > :07:02.an election like this. What we have here to the left - to my left, your

:07:03. > :07:05.right, these people in blue are sorting out the votes according to

:07:06. > :07:10.who the first preference is for. Then you will see people in red

:07:11. > :07:13.wandering up and down the other side and each of them will be collecting

:07:14. > :07:17.votes for one particular candidate. Once they're collected from here

:07:18. > :07:20.they go over to those wire frames against the wall over there and you

:07:21. > :07:23.will see that each of those wire frames has got a name on top and

:07:24. > :07:28.that will be the name of the candidate whose votes are stacked

:07:29. > :07:31.there. You and I are not of high enough degree to get in there and

:07:32. > :07:36.actually do the counting, but there are many people around here who are

:07:37. > :07:39.and I have been asking them small favours to just go and keep an eye

:07:40. > :07:50.on how the votes are falling at the moment. What's the latest? As I said

:07:51. > :07:59.- I will get it from the phone, Sinn Fein 28%, DUP 23%, Ulster Unionists

:08:00. > :08:04.16%, SDLP, 12%, TUV, 10%, Alliance 7%, UKIP 13% and others difficult to

:08:05. > :08:12.tell, because they're below the radar. We will see hopefully before

:08:13. > :08:16.teatime. It's a strong factor in politics, never discount teatime!

:08:17. > :08:25.Thank you very much indeed. There is a bit of a changeover in our guests.

:08:26. > :08:31.We have been joined by Mike Nesbitt and Martin McGuinness and they're

:08:32. > :08:37.having a good chat. Don't let me interrupt! Are we on air? Yes, we

:08:38. > :08:43.are. You should know, the red light is on the camera! You should

:08:44. > :08:49.remember that. Were they secret discussions about a pact? They were,

:08:50. > :08:54.indeed, yes. Did you just shake hands there We have shaken hands

:08:55. > :09:02.many times. You want me to shake hands? Politicians meeting and

:09:03. > :09:06.greeting and sharing a coffee. David McNarry, we saw you talking earlier,

:09:07. > :09:11.he looked as if he was giving off about something. What were you

:09:12. > :09:14.talking about? Transfers? He wasn't giving off at all, he was telling me

:09:15. > :09:19.about a young relation of his who lives in the south who at the time

:09:20. > :09:23.of the presidential elections actually thought that her

:09:24. > :09:29.grandfather and myself looked very alike! It amused me no end. There

:09:30. > :09:33.are, if you have seen on Twitter and various media, pictures of you side

:09:34. > :09:36.by side and you look on occasions in a certain light interchangeable.

:09:37. > :09:41.There you are. No harm in that. Physically, not politically, I

:09:42. > :09:46.suspect. Mark, you were able to hear a little better than I was Nicolas's

:09:47. > :09:51.figures there, for the benefit of our guests just remind us of what he

:09:52. > :09:55.was suggesting. He was running through his official tallies,

:09:56. > :09:59.unofficial tallies, I should say. Basically confirming the pecking

:10:00. > :10:03.order that we gave earlier. He reckoned Sinn Fein currently were on

:10:04. > :10:10.about 28% of the vote. On track to top the poll. The DUP on 23%. Ulster

:10:11. > :10:15.Unionists on about 16% of the vote. The SDLP on 12% of the vote. That's

:10:16. > :10:22.significant in as much as it shows if it does work out that way the

:10:23. > :10:25.SDLP has no chance of this supposed catching up Jim Nicholson so we get

:10:26. > :10:32.the same three returned. The TUV on 10% of the vote, Alliance on 7% and

:10:33. > :10:37.it dwindled away then. If that was the case it would be a slight

:10:38. > :10:42.improvement in Sinn Fein's position. An improvement actually in the DUP's

:10:43. > :10:47.position, Diane Dodds had a big slab taken out of her vote previously. A

:10:48. > :10:52.slight decrease in the Ulster Unionist position. A bigger increase

:10:53. > :10:56.in the SDLP position. A decrease in the TUV position and slight

:10:57. > :10:59.improvement on part of the Alliance. That said, we put in loads of

:11:00. > :11:02.caveats at the start of the programme and those have to be

:11:03. > :11:07.repeated, which is that this is incomplete. Votes are still being

:11:08. > :11:11.counted. It's affected by all sorts of geographic factors. The best way

:11:12. > :11:15.to use these kind of tallies and unofficial figures is to give you an

:11:16. > :11:20.idea of the pecking order. We can call the outcome of the election,

:11:21. > :11:25.but to call percentages and movements is premature. Mike Nesbitt

:11:26. > :11:31.over the past few days you have been absolutely delighted with being up

:11:32. > :11:36.just under 1%. How disappointed would you be... What's funny? That's

:11:37. > :11:40.true. We are up something like 12% in terms of council seats. Share of

:11:41. > :11:43.the vote. Share of the vote is important but the most important

:11:44. > :11:48.thing is the number of councillors you have, 78 would have been status

:11:49. > :11:52.quo from 2011. We have 88, that's up 12%. In terms of today, Mark, let me

:11:53. > :11:57.tell you, the only important statistic and percentage is this,

:11:58. > :12:03.Jim Nicholson started the day 100% an MEP and he is going to finish the

:12:04. > :12:08.day 100% an MEP and the rest is for you and Mark and whoever else is

:12:09. > :12:13.interested, I ain't bothered. If he is an MEP, he is an MEP. We are on

:12:14. > :12:17.our way back. You wouldn't be disappointed then if you were down

:12:18. > :12:21.1% because you were pleased about being up 1%, I am asking would be be

:12:22. > :12:26.disappointed if you were down I was pleased we were up 12% in terms of

:12:27. > :12:30.seats on the super councils. That's a new figure somebody gave you

:12:31. > :12:34.overnight. The first time I heard you mention that this was this

:12:35. > :12:40.morning. I mentioned 78 and 88 yesterday. You didn't use the figure

:12:41. > :12:48.of 12%. You were too busy telling Gregory Campbell he was minus 4%.

:12:49. > :12:52.You were 0. 9%. I said that made him minus 4%. If we were grow that much

:12:53. > :12:57.think of what we are going to do next time. I think this is not

:12:58. > :13:02.really engaining our other guest, is it? -- engaging our other guest.

:13:03. > :13:05.Remember you are the politician, not the presenter any more! My decision

:13:06. > :13:08.when we move on, thank you very much. Deputy First Minister, thank

:13:09. > :13:13.you for joining us. Tell us what you make of those figures and they come

:13:14. > :13:19.with a considerable health warning as Mark has been reminding us, and

:13:20. > :13:22.as Nicolas said himself. Up a little for Sinn Fein if the figures that

:13:23. > :13:26.Nicolas is suggesting are correct. Well, I have a lot of faith in

:13:27. > :13:30.Nicolas. I think he has shown himself to be an expert on figures

:13:31. > :13:36.over the course of the years. But we will have to wait and see how this

:13:37. > :13:40.pans out. And see if those percentages hold up. Certainly from

:13:41. > :13:45.our perspective these elections this week all over the island of Ireland

:13:46. > :13:49.have been a stunning success. In many ways this is a watershed

:13:50. > :13:52.election with the political landscape of politics going to

:13:53. > :13:58.change on this island over the next number of years. In relation to the

:13:59. > :14:04.count here today, hasn't come as any surprise to me at all that the three

:14:05. > :14:08.outgoing MEPs would be returned, that was always my assessment of the

:14:09. > :14:14.way the vote would break down. I suppose at the end of all of that

:14:15. > :14:21.it's more an interest around whether or not people's vote held up or not.

:14:22. > :14:25.And how other parties did. Martina Anderson should match, should match,

:14:26. > :14:36.well she is bound to match, in fact, bound to beat if 28 is right, the

:14:37. > :14:39.fact in 2009. Do you think the turnout tells us anything apart from

:14:40. > :14:43.the fact that because the elections were tied in with the locals more

:14:44. > :14:53.people might have been inclined to vote? Generally there is a greater

:14:54. > :14:56.engagement? We are always hoping for greater engagement, and there are

:14:57. > :15:05.encouraging signs that more people have turned out to vote. I got that

:15:06. > :15:09.very late last night. I watched the BBC for a short while before I went

:15:10. > :15:14.to bed at home. Looking at the results coming in from England.

:15:15. > :15:20.There wasn't one of the constituencies went over 35%

:15:21. > :15:28.turnout. Given our turnout, in my own constituency of the mid-Ulster

:15:29. > :15:36.constituency, there was a turnout of almost 60%. We are always hoping

:15:37. > :15:38.that more and more people would recognise the importance of

:15:39. > :15:44.elections and how significant elections are for their lives, in

:15:45. > :15:49.terms of decisions taken. Nicholas was saying 33% is the average UK

:15:50. > :15:53.turnout. We are sitting at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if

:15:54. > :15:57.the figure in Scotland was much the same. That is interesting, given

:15:58. > :16:04.what's happening in Scotland with the run-up to the referendum in

:16:05. > :16:07.September of this year. One of the impact of elections, apart from

:16:08. > :16:10.these interesting figures, is they do tend to concentrate the minds of

:16:11. > :16:14.politicians on the next election that is coming. Do you think there's

:16:15. > :16:17.an opportunity on the other side of elections to work on the various

:16:18. > :16:22.issues that are facing the Stormont parties, be they Arlene Foster

:16:23. > :16:27.objecting to the use of Richard Haass as a term, because she says

:16:28. > :16:34.he's no longer around be they the past, parades, flags are well fed

:16:35. > :16:38.reforms which separate you? I personally hope that the window of

:16:39. > :16:42.opportunity, and I think it is a window of opportunity because I have

:16:43. > :16:45.a very clear view that if we don't find a way forward on parades, the

:16:46. > :16:47.past and the whole issue of identity, then the course of that

:16:48. > :16:50.short window identity, then the course of that

:16:51. > :16:54.very little likelihood of progress being made on those issues before

:16:55. > :16:59.the next Westminster or even the next assembly elections. I think it

:17:00. > :17:03.would be a failure of leadership if we don't crunch this, find a way

:17:04. > :17:09.forward and put that before the people in a way that will gain the

:17:10. > :17:13.maximum support. What about welfare reform? All of these issues will

:17:14. > :17:17.have to be tied up in the time ahead. The most immediate crisis we

:17:18. > :17:23.are facing is around what's happening in Ardoyne. And whether or

:17:24. > :17:29.not we can get a solution which would reduce the tension in that

:17:30. > :17:32.area. I think we've obviously discussed this between ourselves,

:17:33. > :17:37.and I think there is a general agreement among the powers that be

:17:38. > :17:43.that there is a short window of opportunity which will only last

:17:44. > :17:49.maybe five or six weeks. Do you buy into the window of opportunity now?

:17:50. > :17:53.And very encouraged about the most pressing need being parades. My view

:17:54. > :17:57.would be if we decoupled these big three blocks, which are incredibly

:17:58. > :18:01.challenging in their own right, which we've lumped together, which

:18:02. > :18:08.makes them are very high bar we are trying to clear, when all three are

:18:09. > :18:11.on the agenda. If we decoupled them and went for Parade's End protest

:18:12. > :18:15.and got something over the line over the summer, that would be a

:18:16. > :18:18.tremendous win. I understand in saying that it might sound its that

:18:19. > :18:23.easy to just decoupled, that might give you a huge problem. But if we

:18:24. > :18:26.could do it on parades, it would be great in its own right. It also

:18:27. > :18:31.gives us the momentum which is currently lacking from what was

:18:32. > :18:37.Richard Haass and then became party leaders after that. Were you in that

:18:38. > :18:40.-- where are you in that process? We are not in the process at the

:18:41. > :18:43.moment. We will not be back with the three on the agenda at least until

:18:44. > :18:51.we've seen the results of the various enquiries into the on the

:18:52. > :18:55.runs administrative scheme. Here is the Deputy First Minister making

:18:56. > :18:59.overtures to you today, other parties are saying they think

:19:00. > :19:02.there's a window of opportunity and you have caused a difficulty for

:19:03. > :19:07.yourself by walking away. You can't get back into the room again without

:19:08. > :19:11.having to back down. I could go back into the room if I wanted to. If we

:19:12. > :19:17.decoupled them I could certainly go back in the room and work hard to

:19:18. > :19:21.sort out parades and protests. Isn't your responsibility to get into the

:19:22. > :19:25.room and do difficult talking? I will do the right thing. At the

:19:26. > :19:29.moment, the right thing is not to be in the room because it was bad faith

:19:30. > :19:33.demonstrated by Martin McGuinness and Sinn Fein. How will you persuade

:19:34. > :19:38.Mike Nesbitt to come back into the room, without it looking like he has

:19:39. > :19:43.completely climbed down? I think there will be a very intense effort

:19:44. > :19:46.made to persuade people to get into the room. Whether or not they come

:19:47. > :19:51.into the room is a matter for themselves. He's just accused you of

:19:52. > :19:57.bad faith. I'm not going to get into a slanging match. My credibility

:19:58. > :20:03.within the process and the efforts that I have made and my party has

:20:04. > :20:06.made, for example, whenever the Richard Haass proposals came out, we

:20:07. > :20:10.were the party that was most wholehearted about it, even though

:20:11. > :20:14.we compromised on the main issues. At my sense of it is that if there

:20:15. > :20:17.is going to be a huge effort made. I think it's going to be by more than

:20:18. > :20:21.just the parties to get everybody into the room over the course of the

:20:22. > :20:24.next while. If people don't come into the room then the challenges

:20:25. > :20:28.for those people who are prepared to go into the room, as to whether or

:20:29. > :20:32.not they are prepared to forge an agreement and move the process

:20:33. > :20:42.forward, I hope that is what we will do. You both mentioned parades...

:20:43. > :20:45.Mike did address the issue of decoupling the issue of parades from

:20:46. > :20:52.the past. That isn't going to happen. Why not? Because there are

:20:53. > :20:58.three very difficult issues. We all agree this is a challenge. That's

:20:59. > :21:01.why we asked Richard Haass and O'Sullivan to come from the United

:21:02. > :21:04.States of America. I think we would be negligent in our duty if we only

:21:05. > :21:08.attempted to address one of those issues. The issue of the past is the

:21:09. > :21:11.one we made the most progress on. It's incumbent upon all of us to try

:21:12. > :21:16.and find a way forward on the three issues. You remember the first

:21:17. > :21:20.meeting when Richard Haass and O'Sullivan sat with us at the

:21:21. > :21:24.executive table. He said he felt that dealing with the past was

:21:25. > :21:26.qualitatively different from parades and flags because they were

:21:27. > :21:31.tangibles and there were only so many ways to cut them. I have no

:21:32. > :21:34.doubt that you and I felt at that point that if we got a success it

:21:35. > :21:39.would be on parades and flags, but I'm dealing with the past the best I

:21:40. > :21:43.would hope for is agreeing some sort of mechanism for taking it forward

:21:44. > :21:47.maybe this year. It all changed during the process. I see no reason

:21:48. > :21:51.why we shouldn't sit down and say on parades and protests, here is the

:21:52. > :21:56.deal, because we are very close and we have been for months. The big

:21:57. > :22:00.difficulty about that is people out there in the community would say you

:22:01. > :22:04.are cherry picking what needs to be done. And you are cherry picking an

:22:05. > :22:11.issue of concern only to the Orange Order. Also a major concern to

:22:12. > :22:15.residents. What we have to do is be very honest. We have to recognise

:22:16. > :22:18.that huge progress was made in relation to the past. More progress

:22:19. > :22:23.was made on that issue than any other issue. And the challenge for

:22:24. > :22:27.all of us now is recognising that these elections are over. It comes

:22:28. > :22:30.down to whether or not people are prepared to show positive

:22:31. > :22:33.leadership, whether or not there is a role to tackle these issues and

:22:34. > :22:39.give leadership, which I think people out on the streets are crying

:22:40. > :22:42.for. We are up for that. Would it not make sense to try to get

:22:43. > :22:45.whatever agreement you can run any of these difficult issues as a

:22:46. > :22:48.confidence building measure restaurant if you were able to agree

:22:49. > :22:52.parades ahead of the marching season, would that not then send out

:22:53. > :22:55.a message that might allow people a little bit of wriggle room to

:22:56. > :23:00.dealing with more difficult issues a few months down the line? Look at

:23:01. > :23:03.your home city, the city of Derry, the way in which it dealt with the

:23:04. > :23:08.parading issue. It is now held up by many people as a model for

:23:09. > :23:14.elsewhere. And how did we do that? We didn't acquire a convoluted

:23:15. > :23:17.process to resolve that. It came down to the willingness of the

:23:18. > :23:24.residents association, the involvement of the business

:23:25. > :23:27.community... The overarching system is complicated. Take the bait out we

:23:28. > :23:34.can agree, agree it and then see where we go. But the difficulty is

:23:35. > :23:40.the big differences in the place where I come from, the loyal orders

:23:41. > :23:48.-- orders were prepared to engage in a good-faith way with a view to

:23:49. > :23:53.resolving those issues. You didn't have the past and those negotiations

:23:54. > :23:57.or flags. Let me finish what I'm saying. I've said this privately and

:23:58. > :24:01.also publicly. In relation to the resolution of these issues of the

:24:02. > :24:08.loyal orders in Belfast are light years behind the loyal orders in

:24:09. > :24:13.Derry, where I come from. But you telling them that isn't going to

:24:14. > :24:17.help them. Lets face reality. If you look at this process from the

:24:18. > :24:21.beginning, it is 16 or 17 years since the Good Friday agreement. The

:24:22. > :24:25.Orange Order have never, of all the major organisations within our

:24:26. > :24:29.society, they are the only really major organisation that have never

:24:30. > :24:35.expressed any support whatsoever for the outcome of the agreement.

:24:36. > :24:38.Power-sharing, North-South institutions, East-West

:24:39. > :24:41.institutions. On the issue of parades in Belfast, what we've seen

:24:42. > :24:44.over the course of the last couple of years, it is a very close

:24:45. > :24:49.alignment between elements of the UVF in Belfast on the Orange Order.

:24:50. > :24:56.Some people are in denial about that. And a lot of people take issue

:24:57. > :24:59.with you suggesting that. I want to put part of what Martin McGuinness

:25:00. > :25:02.is saying to you. If you now have done as well as you say you've done

:25:03. > :25:05.over the locals and you are going to do well today as far as Jim

:25:06. > :25:09.Nicholson is concerned, if politics and elections are about results and

:25:10. > :25:13.mandates, then your hand is strengthened, if what you say is

:25:14. > :25:16.correct, and you have a bigger mandate now to give leadership on

:25:17. > :25:22.these issues. So you can stand up and actually suggest things to the

:25:23. > :25:28.community that perhaps might have been difficult for you to suggest

:25:29. > :25:33.last week or last month. Yes, there's an element of that. Are you

:25:34. > :25:37.going to do that? I've been a party leader for two years but I haven't

:25:38. > :25:40.led us through an election. To that extent you are not a proper party

:25:41. > :25:45.leader, there's something missing. I have a mandate now that I didn't

:25:46. > :25:49.have. What are you going to do with that mandate? I'm going to give

:25:50. > :25:54.positive leadership. That means doing the right thing. It sometimes

:25:55. > :25:57.means saying no. You asked me a question on Saturday, when you were

:25:58. > :26:02.talking about some people thought you were going to be liberal and

:26:03. > :26:08.were being a bit more right wing or whatever. You balked at the word

:26:09. > :26:13.liberal. In that context. I want to achieve things that are fair. To be

:26:14. > :26:16.fair, sometimes you are going to have to be seen to be hard-line.

:26:17. > :26:21.Other times you might be seen to be soft. Not as capable as being

:26:22. > :26:25.interpreted as liberal or conservative. Those are

:26:26. > :26:29.old-fashioned terms. Being fair, doing the right thing is the

:26:30. > :26:33.important thing. But when Martin McGuinness says to you the loyal

:26:34. > :26:36.orders in Belfast are light years behind the loyal orders in his home

:26:37. > :26:40.city, are you going to offer leadership, are you going to save

:26:41. > :26:44.things to the loyal orders in Belfast that they might not want to

:26:45. > :26:47.hear, but stand toe to toe to them and say, listen, guys, you may have

:26:48. > :26:52.got this wrong because I think now you may have got this wrong because

:26:53. > :26:56.I think now Unionism follow my leadership and I have an enhanced

:26:57. > :27:00.mandate? I'm not going to say have an enhanced mandate, but I'm going

:27:01. > :27:03.to do the right thing. If that means saying things they don't want to

:27:04. > :27:07.hear, I will do it. That doesn't mean I haven't done that already, by

:27:08. > :27:11.the way. But I do need to do is get a better knowledge of the loyal

:27:12. > :27:14.orders, because Martin McGuinness is saying they are one thing

:27:15. > :27:19.Londonderry and another thing in Belfast. That's not news to you. I'm

:27:20. > :27:23.not a member and have never been looking to join. I need to do a bit

:27:24. > :27:26.more work on those things. But some of the accusations about the UVF and

:27:27. > :27:32.the Belfast loyal order being one and the same thing was ridiculous.

:27:33. > :27:38.Reg Empey is a member of the loyal orders in Belfast. You are going to

:27:39. > :27:46.tell me he is in the UVF? Please! I don't think anybody is suggesting

:27:47. > :27:49.that. Let me tell you one point that Mike said. Positive leadership isn't

:27:50. > :27:56.about saying no. Positive leadership is about five doing solutions and

:27:57. > :28:00.saying yes. That is what I have done throughout this peace process for

:28:01. > :28:07.over 20 years. About finding a way forward on things like the agreement

:28:08. > :28:13.itself, in 1998. Our decision to take our seats in Stormont. The

:28:14. > :28:20.decision of the IRA to put their weapons beyond use. The decision of

:28:21. > :28:23.Sinn Fein to sign up for policing and into government with the DUP.

:28:24. > :28:26.This was all about finding solutions to move the situation forward. So

:28:27. > :28:33.positive leadership isn't about saying no. It's about finding

:28:34. > :28:38.solutions and saying yes. What I'm saying to you... You said it is

:28:39. > :28:47.sometimes about saying no. I disagree. Those three issues all

:28:48. > :28:52.lumped together, it's not working. I just want to roll you back to the

:28:53. > :28:56.question I was going to la --, about positive leadership. Were you

:28:57. > :28:59.hinting, when you both were talking about North Belfast, that even if we

:29:00. > :29:05.don't get an overarching group, something to change on the ground

:29:06. > :29:10.there within the next short time? I think that would be very useful for

:29:11. > :29:15.both communities. Is that a realistic possibility? I don't see

:29:16. > :29:18.why not. The secret in success in resolving the issue of parades is

:29:19. > :29:23.engagement between local communities and the loyal orders. It worked when

:29:24. > :29:27.I come from, I can't see why it wouldn't work in Belfast. Dialogue

:29:28. > :29:33.is critical. We will continue shortly. I want to cross back to

:29:34. > :29:45.Tara, who is sampling the views of the SDLP. She has Mark Durkan with

:29:46. > :29:50.her. Some suggestions of a drop of about 4%, what are you hearing? It's

:29:51. > :29:53.hard to fully say at this stage because we still don't know exactly

:29:54. > :29:57.which votes are still to come through but where we had been hoping

:29:58. > :30:01.to pitch in, somewhere 15% or over, looks as though we are falling short

:30:02. > :30:05.of that. Now that may slightly change, I don't know. As it stands

:30:06. > :30:10.at the moment, we would be disappointed in our share of the

:30:11. > :30:15.vote at this stage. Alex Attwood was a very good candidate, he ran a very

:30:16. > :30:18.good campaign and a very positive campaign in that sense. In

:30:19. > :30:23.circumstances we are hearing people all over the place have been voting

:30:24. > :30:28.for change, people here in the north have chosen to vote essentially for

:30:29. > :30:31.the same slate of MEPs. There are lots of different interpretations.

:30:32. > :30:34.One thing that a couple of commentators have said that your

:30:35. > :30:37.comments on Saturday's programme were a criticism or Friday's

:30:38. > :30:42.programme were a criticism of the leadership in Belfast compared to

:30:43. > :30:49.how the party's getting on in you are in -- you are in neck of the

:30:50. > :30:55.woods. I don't know what comments were meant to be a criticism of the

:30:56. > :30:57.party. The party clearly had a difficult election in Derry where we

:30:58. > :31:01.didn't make the number of seats that we wanted to make. We know why that

:31:02. > :31:05.is in terms of some local issues. Yes, there was some turbulence

:31:06. > :31:11.during the campaign itself in the last few days but we know in terms

:31:12. > :31:13.of some of those issues that benefitted strong independent

:31:14. > :31:18.candidates, we know what factors are there. We also know we still held up

:31:19. > :31:22.a healthy enough mandate in Derry, even in those circumstances. But we

:31:23. > :31:25.have to work harder and we have to do better, not just in Derry, but

:31:26. > :31:29.right across. We have thinking and talking to do. We listened during

:31:30. > :31:33.the campaign, we have to reflect on a lot of what we heard on a lot of

:31:34. > :31:36.those issues, because people want to hear us, not talking about our

:31:37. > :31:39.problems, people want to hear us talking about their problems and the

:31:40. > :31:43.sooner the SDLP can get into a position where we are seen to be

:31:44. > :31:46.talking about the issues, rather than ourselves as inissue the

:31:47. > :31:49.healthier we will find ourselves. The difficulty is while the polls

:31:50. > :31:58.are not doing well in your corner, that's going to be very difficult.

:31:59. > :32:01.What about the leadership then, this was Alasdair McConnell's first

:32:02. > :32:10.election in charge, what message does it send to him -- McDonnell.

:32:11. > :32:15.The party - if it's asked about leadership and this isn't the first

:32:16. > :32:18.election where that has arisen, let's not try to pretend it is. That

:32:19. > :32:21.creates a difficult problem for the party to try to break through of

:32:22. > :32:24.that, because the party is constantly being asked to talk about

:32:25. > :32:27.itself. And talk about trying to explain itself and explain problems

:32:28. > :32:31.and issues. What you need to be doing in politics is talk being the

:32:32. > :32:35.issues that affect people and matter to people, the problems that are

:32:36. > :32:39.facing firps and families still here for all -- firms and families still

:32:40. > :32:42.here for all the talk of recovery. Many families and firms still need

:32:43. > :32:45.better than they're getting out of Stormont. Devolution needs to be

:32:46. > :32:49.delivering better, the new councils are going to have a tall order of

:32:50. > :32:52.delivery. People need to see that we are focussed on that agenda as well

:32:53. > :32:57.as sorting out whatever issues we have to sort out for ourselves.

:32:58. > :32:59.First and foremost about the issues that matter to people in terms of

:33:00. > :33:02.the economy and our community. You have said that throughout the

:33:03. > :33:06.campaign and the other analysts have said that the Catholic vote is

:33:07. > :33:08.staying at home, particularly the middle-class vote that would perhaps

:33:09. > :33:14.traditionally have voted for the SDLP. Yes, there is a stay at home

:33:15. > :33:17.factor and people were telling us again on the doorsteps, some were

:33:18. > :33:21.telling us clearly they thought they were not going to vote. They gave us

:33:22. > :33:25.different reasons for that. In some cases it's because they didn't think

:33:26. > :33:28.enough was happening, they're fed up and frustrated. There's nobody more

:33:29. > :33:31.fed up and frustrated with the lack of delivery and falseness of some of

:33:32. > :33:36.the policy stances at Stormont than the SDLP. We need a mandate to help

:33:37. > :33:40.to unlock that. Some people are deciding no, unlock that first and

:33:41. > :33:43.we will come back and vote for you. Some people are punishing the SDLP

:33:44. > :33:47.almost as a way of punishing the lack of delivery on the executive,

:33:48. > :33:51.even somebody saying to me, oh, until you lead a cavalcade up to

:33:52. > :33:55.Stormont to expose the fact they're not delivering things, why should I

:33:56. > :33:59.vote for you? I am saying, we need a mandate, how do you expect us to

:34:00. > :34:04.deliver differently out of Stormont if we don't get mandates and deliver

:34:05. > :34:08.better in the councils if you don't give us a mandate? The pressure is

:34:09. > :34:13.on you now really in the next 12 months, the focus will go to the

:34:14. > :34:20.Foyle seat to see if you can retain it. Foyle has always been a tough

:34:21. > :34:24.fight. I have never been complacent about that. People will know in

:34:25. > :34:28.Foyle at the next election that the choice is going to be between

:34:29. > :34:31.whether or not they have an active purposeful SDLP MP speaking up in

:34:32. > :34:34.parliament and using that platform or whether they have someone who

:34:35. > :34:38.just wants to claim the seat to issue press releases. Thank you very

:34:39. > :34:42.much. Back to you, Mark. Thank you very much, Tara.

:34:43. > :34:48.Interesting fact that's come my way, only Northern Ireland and the Baltic

:34:49. > :34:52.States are continuing to count their first preferences. We are not alone

:34:53. > :34:59.if you want to be positive. If you want to be negative we are at the

:35:00. > :35:02.rump of the count. Let's hear from Stephen Walker in Westminster for us

:35:03. > :35:06.and following developments. First of all, the Scottish result was pretty

:35:07. > :35:11.interesting. It was, Mark, because UKIP now have their first ever MEP

:35:12. > :35:15.in Scotland and that gives you an indication of how strong the UKIP

:35:16. > :35:20.vote is, not only are they polling well in places like the north-east

:35:21. > :35:24.of England, south-west of England and Wales where the vote went up

:35:25. > :35:27.15%, but the fact they've taken a seat in Scotland. The SNP got two

:35:28. > :35:31.seats. Labour got a seat and the Tories. The misery continued for the

:35:32. > :35:35.Lib Dems, they lost a seat. The SNP were hopeful of three seats in

:35:36. > :35:40.Scotland. But they got two. They did top the poll. What about the wider

:35:41. > :35:43.political fallout, what pressures are the other parties under? Well,

:35:44. > :35:48.there's lots of pressure on all of them. There's pressure on David

:35:49. > :35:51.Cameron to try and bring this 2017 referendum forward. There's a lot of

:35:52. > :35:58.debate going on within his party and a lot of pressure from Eurosceptics.

:35:59. > :36:01.Again there is pressure on Ed Miliband, people are asking that

:36:02. > :36:05.Labour should back a referendum and people are saying that whilst it was

:36:06. > :36:10.a good result, it's still not good enough. Obviously enormous pressure

:36:11. > :36:15.on Nick Clegg. Before the European election campaign he had 12 MEPs. He

:36:16. > :36:19.is down to a single MEP and there are voices, not many of them at the

:36:20. > :36:25.moment, and he is get ago lot of support from party grandeees, but

:36:26. > :36:31.there is pressure on Nick Clegg. Finally, the by-election, Nigel

:36:32. > :36:37.Farage, the UKIP leader, has been talking about that today. He has, he

:36:38. > :36:41.has warned David Cameron that if the Tories lose the by-election then

:36:42. > :36:53.David Cameron and the Tories face a long, hot summer.

:36:54. > :37:00.I couldn't hear Stephen there. But he was telling us - Mike Nesbitt and

:37:01. > :37:05.Martin McGuinness are still with us, let's talk about some issues. First

:37:06. > :37:11.of all, Scotland. UKIP have taken a seat in Scotland. It's not just

:37:12. > :37:16.England and Wales. They're performing well in Scotland. A lot

:37:17. > :37:21.of pressure for David Cameron to bring that 2017 referendum that he

:37:22. > :37:24.has promised, if he is re-elected next May, forward to this

:37:25. > :37:30.parliament. What's pressure like that starts it can build up quickly,

:37:31. > :37:37.can't it? You can see that there will be the Eurosceptics within his

:37:38. > :37:41.own party saying we can't staunch this UKIP rise by saying we might

:37:42. > :37:45.hold a referendum in 2017 after renegotiation when there is no

:37:46. > :37:53.promise that the other European countries will renegotiate the terms

:37:54. > :37:59.of the UK membership. That's why they were hit by UKIP. I think we

:38:00. > :38:02.are facing into a referendum in Scotland coming up in the course of

:38:03. > :38:07.the autumn and this election might well have some impact there. It

:38:08. > :38:13.could have a knock-on effect here. Mike Nesbitt, your party candidate

:38:14. > :38:18.had the three Rs as his mantra, renegotiate, reform... Review first

:38:19. > :38:23.of all. It's under way. I would encourage people to look at the

:38:24. > :38:28.Foreign and Commonwealth Office website. They're going through every

:38:29. > :38:33.bit of relationship between the UK and Europe and once we know exactly

:38:34. > :38:37.what Europe does and what powers and influence it has, then we do want to

:38:38. > :38:42.renegotiate and after that put it to the people in a referendum. Do not

:38:43. > :38:47.let UKIP force through an early referendum. That would be a disaster

:38:48. > :38:51.and the reason why is I think people would then vote emotionally and I

:38:52. > :38:58.fear the emotional reaction would shall let's get out of here. --

:38:59. > :39:02.would be, let's get out of here. Northern Ireland voted to stay in by

:39:03. > :39:05.less than 2% before. I imagine if we had a referendum in Northern Ireland

:39:06. > :39:09.on membership tomorrow we would probably vote to come out without

:39:10. > :39:15.considering all the facts. There is a lot of talk about what it costs us

:39:16. > :39:22.to be in and Jim Allister was clever to bring it down to ?1 million an

:39:23. > :39:28.hour that sounds shocking. Is is he right? I do not think anybody can

:39:29. > :39:33.tell you what we get out in Northern Ireland for every pound that we put

:39:34. > :39:38.in because it is so complicated. On certain programmes you can certainly

:39:39. > :39:44.do that but the other issue is what would it cost us to come out? A

:39:45. > :39:49.leading local economist asked me the question which country per head pays

:39:50. > :39:55.most to be in the common market that is now the EU? The answer, he said,

:39:56. > :39:59.is Norway and Norway is not a member. To gain access to that

:40:00. > :40:03.market they're paying more per head than we are. So to come out would be

:40:04. > :40:07.an incredibly expensive thing. Martin McGuinness, what do you make

:40:08. > :40:13.of review, renegotiate and referendum, the three Rs? Could you

:40:14. > :40:22.sign up to that? We are totally and absolutely opposed to withdrawing

:40:23. > :40:27.from the European Union. That's a - that's their agenda. There are

:40:28. > :40:31.people who don't share UKIP's view? . Absolutely. I don't agree if there

:40:32. > :40:35.was a referendum here tomorrow that people in the north would vote to

:40:36. > :40:38.pull out. That wouldn't be my assessment. I think being part of

:40:39. > :40:44.the European Union has been good for us in so many different ways. But

:40:45. > :40:48.look at it from another perspective, whenever Peter Robinson and I go to

:40:49. > :40:54.the United States of America and we have been hugely successful over the

:40:55. > :40:57.course of recent times in attracting foreign and direct investment, at

:40:58. > :41:01.nearly every meeting we have involved in with executives of

:41:02. > :41:04.companies they ask us about David Cameron's strategy in relation to

:41:05. > :41:09.Europe and I would say that would have a very profound impact on our

:41:10. > :41:14.ability to attract investment if there was any prospect whatsoever of

:41:15. > :41:19.withdrawal from Europe. This isn't just about the farmers. It's about

:41:20. > :41:23.providing jobs for our young people, jobs for graduates, and attracting

:41:24. > :41:29.foreign and direct investment on the basis that we are in the European

:41:30. > :41:35.Union. So this is a huge issue. I think that the danger is that David

:41:36. > :41:38.Cameron is walking - sleep-walking effectively into an out vote and

:41:39. > :41:43.that would be a huge mistake for us here in the north. I should say we

:41:44. > :41:48.are expecting there may be developments in Dublin in a few

:41:49. > :41:52.minutes around 4.00pm, surrounding Eamon Gilmore. There's been

:41:53. > :41:56.speculation that he may be about to resign as the leader of the Labour

:41:57. > :42:00.Party. He is also the Minister for Foreign Affairs, he leads the junior

:42:01. > :42:03.partner in the coalition. He is the Tanaiste, as well. We may cross over

:42:04. > :42:07.to Dublin quickly and at short notice just to see what's happening

:42:08. > :42:13.there, if there is an official announcement. In the meantime,

:42:14. > :42:17.picking up on the conversation here about Europe, Mark, there are a lot

:42:18. > :42:28.of different parties in Northern Ireland who take Minley different

:42:29. > :42:32.positions on -- Minamisanrikul -- on minutely different positions.

:42:33. > :42:36.Northern Ireland does well because of the agricultural sector and

:42:37. > :42:41.dependence on the common agricultural policy... Although Jim

:42:42. > :42:45.Allister refutes that. I think it's in relation to the UK as a whole.

:42:46. > :42:50.Because he would say if you take the UK as a whole it's paying in double

:42:51. > :42:55.what it's getting out. But then that's because the south-east of

:42:56. > :43:02.England, those biggishen areas aren't getting so much -- those big

:43:03. > :43:06.urban areas aren't getting so much out. We have quite an awry of

:43:07. > :43:13.Eurosceptic politicians and UKIP, whatever they come out with here, I

:43:14. > :43:17.am sure they put on gains in terms of numbers of councillors and I am

:43:18. > :43:22.sure they'll say their performsance will be creditworthy. It's not going

:43:23. > :43:26.to cut through, partly because they're swimming in the same pond as

:43:27. > :43:30.the TUV and DUP who are both for basically taking the UK out of

:43:31. > :43:34.Europe, so, it's a very sort of crowded field. Sinn Fein at one

:43:35. > :43:40.point were very keen on the European Union, I think I am right in saying,

:43:41. > :43:44.from your Irish nationalist perspective but have now moved to a

:43:45. > :43:49.euro critical policy, they would be in the yes camp even though they

:43:50. > :43:51.want changes and then we have Mike Nesbitt and the Ulster Unionists,

:43:52. > :43:58.similar to the approach of David Cameron in terms of renegotiation.

:43:59. > :44:02.But it will be fascinating in terms of the interplay with the Scottish

:44:03. > :44:05.referendum. In Scotland, Scottish nationalists might be saying to

:44:06. > :44:08.their people the best way to stay in Europe is have an independent

:44:09. > :44:14.Scotland and that would tilt the scales then in England against

:44:15. > :44:17.Europe. Martin McGuinness, when you look at what's happening in Dublin

:44:18. > :44:20.as far as the junior partner there is concerned, when you look at

:44:21. > :44:23.what's happening in Westminster as far as the junior partner in

:44:24. > :44:28.coalition is concerned, you wouldn't be rushing headlong into any kind of

:44:29. > :44:32.deal to find yourselves in Government in Leinster House next

:44:33. > :44:46.time if you are to look at the experiences of Nick Clegg and Eamon

:44:47. > :44:51.Gilmore in Dublin, would you? Absolutely. I have a very long

:44:52. > :44:56.membri of Dicks brings' participation in the government and

:44:57. > :45:01.how that ended in tears. This Administration has also seemingly

:45:02. > :45:03.ended in tears. We can't pre-empt the outcome of whatever Eamon

:45:04. > :45:07.Gilmore is going to say in the course of the next very short while,

:45:08. > :45:12.but we're not rushing headlong into anything. We are faced up to what

:45:13. > :45:20.will be a general election in the south, either before 2016 or 2016.

:45:21. > :45:24.There can be no doubt that we are going to make very substantial gains

:45:25. > :45:28.on the foot of the results of this weekend. These have been astonishing

:45:29. > :45:36.results for Sinn Fein, where Sinn Fein is now the largest number of

:45:37. > :45:42.councillors in Dublin City Council. Huge gains in Cork, Galway, all over

:45:43. > :45:46.the island of Ireland. There are people now in council positions and

:45:47. > :45:51.all of those councils who will become TDEs in the not too distant

:45:52. > :45:55.future. Before we get to that, you obviously have to get the people

:45:56. > :45:58.elected. I think we will make huge gains. You will also have to

:45:59. > :46:02.consider what the political landscape is going to be in relation

:46:03. > :46:06.to the strengths of the other parties and the other side of that

:46:07. > :46:09.election. There's a lot of speculation you could hold the

:46:10. > :46:13.balance of power, you could be a very important part of the political

:46:14. > :46:16.landscape come the next general election in Dublin. But it could

:46:17. > :46:24.also maybe not materialise because maybe this is a protest vote for

:46:25. > :46:27.Sinn Fein against the two main parties, which have been around for

:46:28. > :46:29.a long time and both, for different reasons, are having big problems. I

:46:30. > :46:34.read a very thoughtful article by Martina Devlin this morning, where

:46:35. > :46:39.she totally pooh-poohed the notion that this was a protest vote. As far

:46:40. > :46:43.as she was concerned, and many other experts, and it was interesting

:46:44. > :46:49.listening to someone saying that the formation would be between whatever

:46:50. > :46:54.fine Gael could cobble together or whatever Sinn Fein could cobble

:46:55. > :46:57.together. All sorts of experts are working on the basis that this isn't

:46:58. > :47:01.a protest vote, this is a fundamental change of the political

:47:02. > :47:05.landscape. That will have very dramatic implications for the

:47:06. > :47:09.formation of the next government in Dublin. We formed a government here

:47:10. > :47:13.in the north on the basis of putting together a programme for government.

:47:14. > :47:17.If we can't put together a programme for government, if our party decides

:47:18. > :47:23.to go into such a coalition which meets our needs, then we will not be

:47:24. > :47:26.going into government. The fortunes of these junior partners in Dublin

:47:27. > :47:31.and London do have significance for what we have up at Stormont, where

:47:32. > :47:34.we have the five party coalition. Where we, as Ulster Unionist, a

:47:35. > :47:38.junior partners to Sinn Fein and the DUP, because you want at certain

:47:39. > :47:45.times to criticise but then you get right back in your face, around the

:47:46. > :47:51.executive table. It is difficult. It won't stop us criticising. The other

:47:52. > :47:56.issue... I would be very sad if Eamon Gilmore is going. I thought he

:47:57. > :47:59.made a very considered speech at the British Irish last September in

:48:00. > :48:04.Cambridge. I didn't agree with all a bit but it was a very concerted,

:48:05. > :48:07.thoughtful speech, clearly paving the way for the visit of President

:48:08. > :48:11.Higgins, and looking ahead to 2016, where he said he would be inviting

:48:12. > :48:17.the Queen and Unionist leaders to Dublin. And he's been very involved

:48:18. > :48:22.in outreach to unionists in Northern Ireland. I've interviewed him twice

:48:23. > :48:26.on Remembrance Sunday the year passed on the year before week,

:48:27. > :48:31.where he took part on both occasions. And I had no difficulty

:48:32. > :48:36.in saying all things being equal, because the devil is in the detail,

:48:37. > :48:40.but if I was still leader of Ulster Unionism in Easter 2016, I will go

:48:41. > :48:44.to Dublin, I will pay my respects. I will try and learn from the example

:48:45. > :48:48.of the Queen's visit to the Republic, which I think was a

:48:49. > :48:56.fantastic act of leadership, and Michael Higgins' is it to England,

:48:57. > :49:02.equally a fantastic occasion. One of the moments for me, if we have time

:49:03. > :49:06.for this, was the concert in the Albert Hall. When President Higgins

:49:07. > :49:10.came in and most of that audience were basically Irish people who had

:49:11. > :49:27.been living in England for ten, 20, 30, 40 years. And for them to look

:49:28. > :49:44.around and to see their president walking into the Royal box at the

:49:45. > :49:44.Royal Albert Hall was a moment that maybe even five years ago they would

:49:45. > :49:45.never have thought was possible. I think that was a fantastic moment in

:49:46. > :49:46.British Irish relations. Do you think President Higgins should be

:49:47. > :49:47.invited to Stormont any time soon? Wii if there is a reason for it.

:49:48. > :49:47.Once we get to being a mature democracy, I would have no

:49:48. > :49:48.difficulty with President Higgins coming up Prince of Wales Avenue

:49:49. > :49:58.with the Union flag for that occasion. What does that mean, once

:49:59. > :50:03.we become a mature democracy? We are certainly not where I think we need

:50:04. > :50:07.to be. At the minute you wouldn't support his invitation to Stormont?

:50:08. > :50:12.Why would he be coming to Stormont? I'm not saying no. There is

:50:13. > :50:21.speculation that there may be an invitation. You will know more than

:50:22. > :50:23.I do. There are discussions taking place and I would obviously very

:50:24. > :50:37.much support President Higgins coming to Belfast and... Even though

:50:38. > :50:44.he beat you in that election? I'm a huge fan of his. Let's go straight

:50:45. > :50:49.over to Dublin. This is Eamon Gilmore, we are looking at live

:50:50. > :50:50.pictures there. The leader of the Labour Party, let's hear what he has

:50:51. > :51:08.to say. There is some speculation he may

:51:09. > :51:17.resign as Labour leader but remain as Tanaiste until July. We were

:51:18. > :51:18.talking about this earlier. Let's see what he has to say. There will

:51:19. > :51:27.be some flash photography over the next few moments.

:51:28. > :51:44.And our general secretary. At 10:30am this morning, I informed the

:51:45. > :51:47.general secretary of the Labour Party that I intend to stand down as

:51:48. > :51:49.leader of the party, with the fact from the election of my successor. I

:51:50. > :51:51.have asked that the executive board of the party immediately make

:51:52. > :51:55.arrangements for the election of a new leader of the Labour Party

:51:56. > :52:01.before the end of this term. I have had the honour and privilege to meet

:52:02. > :52:06.the Labour Party -- to lead the Labour Party for seven years. In

:52:07. > :52:10.2011, following our most successful ever general election, I asked the

:52:11. > :52:13.party to take on the responsibility of government during the worst

:52:14. > :52:21.economic crisis in the history of the state. I did so because I

:52:22. > :52:25.believed then, as I do now, that as citizens and as a party we had a

:52:26. > :52:31.duty to put the country first. To address the crisis, to get out of

:52:32. > :52:38.the bailout, two refers the loss of employment, to get the economy to

:52:39. > :52:42.recover and to do so in a fair, just a manner as humanly possible. I

:52:43. > :52:45.still believe that that was the right decision, and I am proud of

:52:46. > :52:51.the progress we have made in achieving those objectives. But it

:52:52. > :52:57.was a course which carried a high political risk, and Labour has paid

:52:58. > :53:03.the price for that in the local and European elections. I deeply regret

:53:04. > :53:05.the loss of good public representatives and the defeat of

:53:06. > :53:11.outstanding Labour candidates last Friday. I have already spoken of the

:53:12. > :53:18.necessity for renewal. The party and the government must move on to a new

:53:19. > :53:22.phase and look to the future. Where we have had successes we must build

:53:23. > :53:27.on them. Where we have fallen short, we must do better. When you

:53:28. > :53:33.problems are arising, we must find solutions for them. We must and we

:53:34. > :53:40.will continue to put the country and the needs of the Irish people first.

:53:41. > :53:45.And in doing so, we must hear, heed and act on the clear message we

:53:46. > :53:50.received on Friday. There is work to do and I intend to be part of it,

:53:51. > :53:55.but I believe that the work of renewing the party is best done

:53:56. > :54:00.under new leadership. I want to thank all the members of the party,

:54:01. > :54:04.all of our public representatives and candidates, the party staff and

:54:05. > :54:10.especially my own staff, who have worked so hard with me over the past

:54:11. > :54:14.seven years. As I have said many times, I am immensely proud of the

:54:15. > :54:20.courage shown by those members of the Labour Party who, over the past

:54:21. > :54:26.three years, put their country first. Who recognised that real

:54:27. > :54:29.politics is about finding real solutions, and to put loyalty and

:54:30. > :54:33.country before everything else. It has been an honour to lead them and

:54:34. > :54:39.I look forward to working with them for a very long time to come.

:54:40. > :54:54.There you have it, Eamon Gilmore residing as -- signing as leader of

:54:55. > :54:58.the Labour Party after seven years in charge. There will now be an

:54:59. > :55:01.election for his successor. He says the party has paid a high price for

:55:02. > :55:05.its involvement in the bailout. He deeply regrets the loss of good

:55:06. > :55:09.public representatives and says the party needs a new phase, to look to

:55:10. > :55:14.the future that needs to be done under new leadership. He says that

:55:15. > :55:20.his party has heard and acted on the clear message we received last

:55:21. > :55:25.Friday. Mark, your thoughts on that? It's a bit of an earthquake.

:55:26. > :55:29.It is, it's the fate of a junior coalition partner. It has been tough

:55:30. > :55:34.for them because Sinn Fein and some of the other parties on the left

:55:35. > :55:38.wing have undercut their traditional base of support. Instead, Labour has

:55:39. > :55:43.been seen as being one of the parties having to administer the

:55:44. > :55:47.austerity programme which followed the bailout. They have lost some of

:55:48. > :55:52.their natural constituency to Sinn Fein and other parties. The question

:55:53. > :55:56.is whether the coalition government will continue now. Eamon Gilmore

:55:57. > :56:00.seemed to be saying that the government and the party must go on,

:56:01. > :56:04.so one would assume that if another Labour politician is then elected as

:56:05. > :56:10.leader, B Joe Burton or whoever, that they will take over in the

:56:11. > :56:14.role. One other aspect of this was there was a lobby within the Irish

:56:15. > :56:17.Labour Party saying that whoever is that Irish Labour leader should hold

:56:18. > :56:20.an economic brief rather than be Foreign Minister, because it was

:56:21. > :56:23.felt they weren't seen to be tackling those economic issues of

:56:24. > :56:27.great concern to the electorate. It will be interesting to see of Labour

:56:28. > :56:31.holds the foreign affairs brief, which at the moment still controls

:56:32. > :56:38.the policy of Dublin towards Northern Ireland. Martin McGuinness,

:56:39. > :56:43.you are the Deputy First Minister in Belfast, he is Deputy First Minister

:56:44. > :56:50.in Dublin. As Tanaiste, he was an arch critic at times of Sinn Fein.

:56:51. > :56:55.Are you really sorry to see him go? You are sorry to see any political

:56:56. > :56:59.career ended this way. Eamon Gilmore, despite our political

:57:00. > :57:04.differences, was the Tanaiste come so he was involved in an awful lot

:57:05. > :57:07.of work with us at the different ministerial council levels, the

:57:08. > :57:11.different meetings that took place between us, the quadrilateral is

:57:12. > :57:15.that took place between Theresa Villiers, himself, Peter Robinson

:57:16. > :57:20.and myself. From a personal point of view, we have to be civilised about

:57:21. > :57:25.this. It is not nice to see a career end in a way that this career has

:57:26. > :57:28.ended. I think that the reason this has happened is because there has

:57:29. > :57:34.been a massive kick back against austerity in the South. The

:57:35. > :57:39.withdrawal of medical care from disabled children, the imposition of

:57:40. > :57:42.household charges. People have been taxed to the hilt, where they

:57:43. > :57:46.haven't got any more money to spend. I think there's been a kickback

:57:47. > :57:49.against austerity, and that's why he has found himself in this

:57:50. > :57:55.predicament. A much more important issue arises out of this now, and

:57:56. > :57:59.that is... Obviously, we can't pre-empt the outcome of a leadership

:58:00. > :58:03.election, but all of the suggestions down south are that if Eamon Gilmore

:58:04. > :58:07.went that the probability is that John Burton would take over as

:58:08. > :58:10.leader of the party. I don't know if that will happen or even if he is

:58:11. > :58:14.favourite at this stage, but it raises the question that this

:58:15. > :58:21.government will go the full term to 2016. I think the prospects of them

:58:22. > :58:30.not going the full term are probably accelerated now by this decision. We

:58:31. > :58:35.fancy our chances tomorrow if there was an election. Given the way in

:58:36. > :58:39.which political landscape has changed over the course of the last

:58:40. > :58:43.number of days, as a result of the elections in the south, both in

:58:44. > :58:49.European and local government level, that the sooner an election happens

:58:50. > :58:54.the better. As Tanaiste and Minister for foreign affairs, did Eamon

:58:55. > :58:58.Gilmore engage in the politics of the North or Northern Ireland as

:58:59. > :59:56.much as he should have done? I don't think so. I don't think either the I

:59:57. > :59:59.found him to be knowledgeable and to be understanding and sympathetic to

:00:00. > :00:04.the unionist cause and to the fact that what we need to do is ensure

:00:05. > :00:08.that everything we do is fair, not fair for unionists, but fair for

:00:09. > :00:13.everybody and on occasions we are coming up a little bit short of the

:00:14. > :00:18.mark but then all governments do. OK, let's hear from my colleague

:00:19. > :00:23.Shane Harrison in Dublin. He joins us now. Shane, certainly politics

:00:24. > :00:28.moving on apace this afternoon in Dublin. Is there any huge surprise

:00:29. > :00:33.that Eamon Gilmore has fallen on his sword? I have to say there is a bit

:00:34. > :00:36.of surprise, yes, because as recently as the weekend he was

:00:37. > :00:41.saying he had no intention of resigning. Since then, and

:00:42. > :00:45.particularly today, a number of Labour backbenchers, people of a

:00:46. > :00:49.younger generation than the Labour Cabinet Ministers at the moment,

:00:50. > :00:52.have been making it perfectly clear they had little confidence in him

:00:53. > :00:58.and indeed in some of their Cabinet members. So this could well be a

:00:59. > :01:02.generational thing. The question is will he remain as Tanaiste? It's my

:01:03. > :01:08.understanding that he will remain as Tanaiste until there is the Cabinet

:01:09. > :01:14.reshuffle and he is replaced as leader. It will be the new leader

:01:15. > :01:20.who will have to decide with Enda Kenny who will be in the Cabinet and

:01:21. > :01:23.what portfolios they have after these elections and that could well

:01:24. > :01:28.take sometime because the Labour Party rules, as I understand it,

:01:29. > :01:34.mean that there are 45 days before nominations for a new leader close.

:01:35. > :01:38.If it's the case there is an agreed leader, then things will obviously

:01:39. > :01:43.change and we could move to a Cabinet reshuffle more quickly. We

:01:44. > :01:48.were hearing speculation there from my guests that Joan Burton is

:01:49. > :01:52.probably the likely successor, does that make sense from where you are,

:01:53. > :01:56.Shane? Well, in the Labour Party there have always historically over

:01:57. > :02:06.the last ten, 15 years or so, been two factions. The faction in which

:02:07. > :02:14.Eamon Gilmore - what might be called the sticky faction, the Workers

:02:15. > :02:18.Party, Democratic Elect and old Labour Party. Joan Burton is the

:02:19. > :02:24.deputy leader of the Labour Party. She has in the past, in a kind of

:02:25. > :02:30.sly way, been critical of Eamon Gilmore. But she's in her 60s, as

:02:31. > :02:34.well. The young generation may want to go for somebody who is a little

:02:35. > :02:38.bit younger. They will be looking for more Cabinet replacements. I

:02:39. > :02:42.would say she will probably start off as favourite but whether she

:02:43. > :02:45.remains as favourite is another question. Can you talk us through

:02:46. > :02:51.how you think things are going to unfold over the next few weeks and

:02:52. > :02:57.months? Am I right in understanding that while he is resigned as Labour

:02:58. > :03:02.leader, during that election campaign to find a successor, he

:03:03. > :03:06.would remain as Tanaiste? Yeah, that's my understanding of what's

:03:07. > :03:10.going to happen. The Labour Party rules allow for 45 days for

:03:11. > :03:16.nominations for a new leader before they're closed. If it so happens and

:03:17. > :03:19.emerges that it's clear there is an agreed candidate, at this stage that

:03:20. > :03:23.would appear unlikely, but if that's the case they may have the Cabinet

:03:24. > :03:27.reshuffle a lot quicker because the new Labour leader is going to have

:03:28. > :03:31.to get together with Enda Kenny and decide on the Cabinet reshuffle and

:03:32. > :03:35.whether or not there's going to be a change, for example, in Government

:03:36. > :03:38.policies. There has been talk about whether or not this could hasten a

:03:39. > :03:43.general election, given the stability and the fact that Labour's

:03:44. > :03:46.going to be a lot more needy because two billion euro at the current

:03:47. > :03:50.estimate are going to have to be taken out of the economy in terms of

:03:51. > :03:54.tax rises and spending cuts in the next budget. The Government says

:03:55. > :03:58.that will be the last of austerity. The way I would see it is that the

:03:59. > :04:02.Labour Party is unlikely to want a general election any time soon,

:04:03. > :04:05.especially with what happened over the weekend and with Sinn Fein

:04:06. > :04:10.breathing down the party's neck and the party will know from the lessons

:04:11. > :04:13.from the SDLP, that once Sinn Fein gets into particular territories,

:04:14. > :04:18.it's difficult to remove the party from them. And large swathes of

:04:19. > :04:22.Dublin, particularly the more poor, the more deprived, working-class

:04:23. > :04:27.areas, they've gone en masse in local and European elections over to

:04:28. > :04:32.Sinn Fein and it's difficult to see Sinn Fein giving up that territory

:04:33. > :04:39.easily. Thank you very much for that. Let's come back to my studio

:04:40. > :04:42.guests, Mike Nesbitt and Martin McGuinness and our political editor.

:04:43. > :04:48.I feel left out, you have been passing a phone around there and

:04:49. > :04:55.smiling. Let me in on the secret? Tell him nothing! It was Danny

:04:56. > :05:01.Morrison causing mischief. He was noting that Joan Burton appeared to

:05:02. > :05:04.be in a side room when Eamon Gilmore was making that announcement.

:05:05. > :05:10.Definitely on a different wing of the party from where he was. OK.

:05:11. > :05:13.Shane saying there that perhaps unlikely that anybody would want to

:05:14. > :05:18.rush headlong into a general election. I suppose that's not a

:05:19. > :05:26.huge surprise. Certainly obviously the Government will be concerned,

:05:27. > :05:30.governing parties will be concerned, lest any swift move would see them

:05:31. > :05:33.punished in the same way. They may want to take time about that. You

:05:34. > :05:37.still have that possibility that at some point the junior partner may

:05:38. > :05:43.say, look, we are going to be hung if we stay in so we may as well get

:05:44. > :05:48.out. Someone passed me son figures which I passed on to -- passed me

:05:49. > :05:53.some figures which I passed to you. I passed them back. They were

:05:54. > :05:57.rejected. I will give you... A different vote, was it? It changed

:05:58. > :06:01.the actual order and before I start changing the order of the candidates

:06:02. > :06:06.live on air, on the basis of something somebody passed to me I

:06:07. > :06:13.wanted to double check. Very sensible, Mark. That's why I passed

:06:14. > :06:18.it to you in the first place! The latest tally my colleague was giving

:06:19. > :06:23.a few minutes ago, which had Sinn Fein on 125,000 votes, the DUP on

:06:24. > :06:30.95,000 votes, the Ulster Unionists on 60,000 votes, and the SDLP on

:06:31. > :06:35.59,000 votes, and the TUV on 44,000 votes, so that would show the SDLP

:06:36. > :06:42.closing up significantly and it was - those figures that I want to

:06:43. > :06:50.double check showed the SDLP leap-frogging the Ulster Unionists

:06:51. > :06:53.which could have people working out the different permutations. Because

:06:54. > :07:01.you are sitting close to Mike Nesbitt! It was because of my fading

:07:02. > :07:05.eyesight. You wouldn't like that set of figures, Mike? Will I do a set? I

:07:06. > :07:13.would be interested to see what you put down. Nicholson 7 a 50,000 --

:07:14. > :07:16.750,000. That would be impossible given the number of people that

:07:17. > :07:20.voted. You could wish for figures like that. 125,000, you would be

:07:21. > :07:26.happy with that, Martin McGuinness, if that's what was polled? I don't

:07:27. > :07:30.know if that's a final count. It's just a latest tally. We might have a

:07:31. > :07:34.bit to go. I don't think anything I have seen changes my sense of how

:07:35. > :07:39.the three seats are going to fall down. They'll go to ourselves, the

:07:40. > :07:44.DUP and the Ulster Unionists. Just on that, since we have a moment, was

:07:45. > :07:49.Alex Attwood, was the SDLP deluding itself in thinking there was a seat

:07:50. > :07:54.there for the SDLP? What they were doing sensibly from their own

:07:55. > :08:00.perspective was playing up the prospect that they could win a seat,

:08:01. > :08:10.but given the fact that as the DUP had mentioned, that there was a

:08:11. > :08:14.shredded unionist vote it didn't take account most of those will vote

:08:15. > :08:19.down the order and Jim if he needed transfers will be comfort plea home

:08:20. > :08:23.with Jim Allister's vote, for example. We are going to move people

:08:24. > :08:27.around. Mike Nesbitt, in case you get reshuffled, a final thought on

:08:28. > :08:31.where wur after two hours and ten minutes of broadcasting? I am

:08:32. > :08:36.tempted to say we are in King's Hall, Mark. You are not going to do

:08:37. > :08:40.that, Mike. We are in a reasonably comfortable position but I will not

:08:41. > :08:46.relax until we have had the declaration and Jim is over the

:08:47. > :08:50.line. At that point, as I have said, phase one of my leadership into

:08:51. > :08:55.elections is over and it's successful and we move on. We have

:08:56. > :09:01.big challenges. We have to build a mutual trust that was in the Belfast

:09:02. > :09:05.Agreement and we haven't done that and... I have tried my best! I will

:09:06. > :09:10.be positive in my leadership. You just won't think it's positive.

:09:11. > :09:13.Let's see. Let's see where we are next week and the week after. Mike

:09:14. > :09:17.Nesbitt, thank you very much. We are going to hear from one of your party

:09:18. > :09:31.colleagues with Tara. Thank you, Mark. Nobody's relaxing

:09:32. > :09:34.down here. But we are - how is the Jim Nicholson camp? We are

:09:35. > :09:41.confident. It's difficult to make an honest judgment. We are still

:09:42. > :09:45.confident that Jim Nicholson will be re-elected. Any criticism of the

:09:46. > :09:49.length of time it's taken? They said first preference votes by 2.00pm, we

:09:50. > :09:54.are well past that. We are pretty used to in in election campaigns and

:09:55. > :09:58.counts. I have never come to the count they've actually kept on time

:09:59. > :10:03.from early predictions. So used to it. This is taking a bit longer than

:10:04. > :10:08.most anticipated, especially for first count to come through. People

:10:09. > :10:13.are getting uneasy and it's taking so long and if they had said at the

:10:14. > :10:18.start it will take to 4.00pm people wouldn't have been as uneasy from

:10:19. > :10:20.2.00pm. We need to look at the electronic counting mechanisms. We

:10:21. > :10:24.have had demonstrations of that at the Assembly. Each party have been

:10:25. > :10:28.offered demonstrations of it and I know I have seen it happen myself.

:10:29. > :10:33.It is something we should look at seriously. I don't know why they

:10:34. > :10:35.didn't put it in place at local elections. There may have been an

:10:36. > :10:38.indication at one stage a couple of years ago that the next local

:10:39. > :10:43.Government election they would try and have it in place. It's something

:10:44. > :10:48.that we need to pursue. The latest tallies that I have been told

:10:49. > :10:51.looking at about 60,000 votes so far for Jim Nicholson. Is that what you

:10:52. > :10:58.are hearing? I think he will be well in excess of 60,000 at the end,

:10:59. > :11:04.probably 70,000 or around that. As I say, those are only guesses, only

:11:05. > :11:09.educated guesses on the basis of tallies. In a tally like this it's

:11:10. > :11:14.really difficult to get a good, accurate assessment. We need to wait

:11:15. > :11:19.until the first result is announced. What about Jim Allister, what dent

:11:20. > :11:24.has he put into the votes for all the unionist parties, apart from his

:11:25. > :11:28.own? Jim Allister appears to have polled well also, much better

:11:29. > :11:31.probably than his party's local Government campaign has reflected.

:11:32. > :11:35.Obviously there is a personal vote there for Jim Allister, and that

:11:36. > :11:40.will be reflected in the count at the end. Hopefully Jim Nicholson who

:11:41. > :11:44.has the experience and the work rate in Europe will be returned. What

:11:45. > :11:49.about what happens next? What do you see in terms of the Haass talks, in

:11:50. > :11:54.terms of some progress, because the turnout for this election has been

:11:55. > :11:57.higher than for the local councils but people - there is still around

:11:58. > :12:02.half the population that don't bother to vote. Political talks will

:12:03. > :12:05.continue at whatever level, whether that's continuous of the Haass

:12:06. > :12:09.talks, whether Haass and O'Sullivan come back to Northern Ireland, I am

:12:10. > :12:12.not sure, but obviously party leaders to some extent have been

:12:13. > :12:16.talking in the interim. The difficulty is so much has happened

:12:17. > :12:20.since then, especially around the letters of comfort that were given

:12:21. > :12:24.to the on the runs and that's been a major problem and from the unionist

:12:25. > :12:28.perspective we feel that talks will be limited until those issues are

:12:29. > :12:33.resolved. Thank you for joining us, back to you, Mark.

:12:34. > :12:36.Thank you very much indeed. Now Nigel Dodds has joined us. Mike

:12:37. > :12:41.Nesbitt's gone off to stretch his legs. Martin McGuinness has kindly

:12:42. > :12:44.agreed to stay. Mark isn't allowed away, neither am I! One interesting

:12:45. > :12:48.thing before we go, we were talking there about whether or not it would

:12:49. > :12:52.be appropriate for President Higgins to receive an invitation to Stormont

:12:53. > :12:55.and Mike Nesbitt said when we are a mature, functioning democracy maybe

:12:56. > :12:59.but doesn't think we are there yet. I have a tweet from Professor John

:13:00. > :12:59.Brewer at Queens University who says President Higgins is coming

:13:00. > :13:02.Brewer at Queens University who says President Higgins is to Belfast to

:13:03. > :13:08.an event at Queens University in October. There you go. President

:13:09. > :13:11.Higgins does visit here but obviously the reason why the

:13:12. > :13:14.Stormont one will be of interest is because of all the protocol and you

:13:15. > :13:17.can remember those headlines in relation to the Haass talks about

:13:18. > :13:21.which flag should fly over the building and so on. There have been

:13:22. > :13:25.discussions I think about it possibly happening once we get

:13:26. > :13:29.elections out of the way. Nigel Dodds, would you have any objection

:13:30. > :13:33.to an invitation being extended to President Higgins at this stage?

:13:34. > :13:36.Well, I don't know where this has come out of. Part of a previous

:13:37. > :13:40.discussion talking about how far things have come. I think those sort

:13:41. > :13:48.of things in terms of state visits or official visits like that are

:13:49. > :13:52.organised at a higher level than the Northern Ireland Office. Wait and

:13:53. > :13:58.see what comes of that. OK. We are pleased to have a Dodds on the set,

:13:59. > :14:03.but no disrespect, but the focus is very much on your other half, how is

:14:04. > :14:09.she? And quite rightly so. I would be happy for her to be sitting here,

:14:10. > :14:13.not me. She's delegated you. Yes We will speak to her in due course.

:14:14. > :14:23.She's confident is she, noises that you are getting are positive? We

:14:24. > :14:28.have been following the count, like everybody else. The predictions look

:14:29. > :14:33.to be good for us. We have certainly increased from last time, I think

:14:34. > :14:36.that seems to be the case. It has been a very positive campaign on the

:14:37. > :14:40.European front because Diane has done an enormous amount of work

:14:41. > :14:42.throughout Northern Ireland over the last five years, both in the

:14:43. > :14:47.parliament and on the ground. I think that's beginning to show,

:14:48. > :15:51.where even people who haven't been DUP have been voting for her across

:15:52. > :15:58.We are confident we are doing well. When it comes to the elections for

:15:59. > :16:01.Westminster, for the Assembly, whether in national or local

:16:02. > :16:04.Government, people will rally around the strongest unionist party. Martin

:16:05. > :16:09.McGuinness, how important is it for the three MEPs from Northern Ireland

:16:10. > :16:15.to work together to get on together, because when I was interviewing

:16:16. > :16:18.Martina Anderson and Diane Dodds there was a frostiness about it,

:16:19. > :16:22.let's say, it was obvious in a question I asked they don't often go

:16:23. > :16:33.off together and have a coffee and shoot the breeze. Is that

:16:34. > :16:44.unfortunate? I think it is important to strive there is... Do they do

:16:45. > :16:47.that? Whether or not there is good personal relationships is down to

:16:48. > :16:51.themselves, but I think in a sense of there being a good working

:16:52. > :16:56.relationship that's something we always have to strive towards.

:16:57. > :17:12.Remember also in the aftermath of this election you are also going to

:17:13. > :17:17.have three other Sinn Fein MEPs I would hope they will assist along

:17:18. > :17:22.with other Irish MEPs our cause here in the north and I think this could

:17:23. > :17:25.be a very formidable team advocating for all of us if they have the

:17:26. > :17:31.ability to work together in Brussels. Nigel, can Diane and

:17:32. > :17:39.Martina Anderson do politics without being best friends forever? I don't

:17:40. > :17:43.think you have to drink cappuccino together to put bread on the table.

:17:44. > :17:47.I think you can deliver as colleagues. I am not Martin

:17:48. > :17:52.McGuinness' best friend and he's not mine. There wouldn't be many times I

:17:53. > :17:55.have ever had a cup of coffee with him. But there are things we can

:17:56. > :17:59.work together on in the best interests of everybody. That is the

:18:00. > :18:02.reality of it. We will not be going out to share a meal together or

:18:03. > :18:08.anything like that, but we can work on issues of common concern. That is

:18:09. > :18:12.the difference from where we were 30 years ago. I will remain a staunch

:18:13. > :18:16.Unionist and someone who is out to preserve the union, he will remain a

:18:17. > :18:20.Republican, but we can work together on issues of common interest,

:18:21. > :18:25.retaining our political differences and objectives. But I think the MEPs

:18:26. > :18:28.have worked quite effectively on common issues affecting northern

:18:29. > :18:34.Ireland. There will be difference of emphasis between them, but that's

:18:35. > :18:37.what you get in politics. The public view might be you can improve the

:18:38. > :18:41.relationships you are talking about a lot very easily if you did go out

:18:42. > :18:46.and have a bite to eat together or sit down and share a cup of coffee.

:18:47. > :18:50.That you can get the personal right and sometimes the political can

:18:51. > :18:52.follow on. I'm tempted to say that Google for a whole lot of

:18:53. > :19:03.relationships, including the media. I look forward to you invited me out

:19:04. > :19:07.for a cup coffee! Absolutely! The reality is in the world of politics

:19:08. > :19:17.there are differences between political parties. We've got to be

:19:18. > :19:21.realistic. There is a lot of issues which fundamentally divide us, and

:19:22. > :19:24.there's a lot of history in terms of what people were engaged in the past

:19:25. > :19:29.and what they did to people, and for which there has an as yet been, in

:19:30. > :19:32.my view, a full Anne Frank apology, and that goes for personal

:19:33. > :19:38.relationships as well as for the general community issues. -- fall

:19:39. > :19:44.Anne Frank apology. People are now working their way through

:19:45. > :19:50.I want to pick up on it because I think that during the course of the

:19:51. > :19:55.year that Ian Paisley and myself were in the office of first and

:19:56. > :19:59.Deputy First Minister together, I think the community were amazed that

:20:00. > :20:03.we didn't just have a good working relationship, but we actually had a

:20:04. > :20:07.good personal relationship as well. I think personal relationships are

:20:08. > :20:11.very important. But the difficulty is that even during the course of

:20:12. > :20:15.that journey, I have no doubt there were people within the DUP who

:20:16. > :20:19.didn't like that. I have no doubt there were Republicans out there who

:20:20. > :20:23.just wondered about this, was this the right thing to do? I believe it

:20:24. > :20:28.was the right thing to do because in showing we have not just a good

:20:29. > :20:32.working relationship but a positive personal relationship, we sent very

:20:33. > :20:35.powerful, positive messages to people at grassroots level, that we

:20:36. > :20:39.really need to be getting on together. Is that what motivated you

:20:40. > :20:44.ultimately to shake hands with the Queen and to attend events whenever

:20:45. > :20:48.the President was there in London recently? I made it clear the first

:20:49. > :20:52.time I met Queen Elizabeth in Belfast that this was an attempt by

:20:53. > :20:56.me to stretch out the hand of friendship to the Unionist

:20:57. > :21:03.community. Yes, that is what the visit to Windsor was about. I think

:21:04. > :21:08.these big act of reconciliation are very important. I know that they

:21:09. > :21:10.present difficulties for people. I know that the Republicans in

:21:11. > :21:15.different parts of Ireland didn't agree. Maybe that is going a bit too

:21:16. > :21:19.far, saying they didn't agree, but some of them said they wouldn't have

:21:20. > :21:23.done it themselves. But that's what leadership is about. You can't lead

:21:24. > :21:30.from behind. If you are going to lead, you have to do it from the

:21:31. > :21:33.front. Sometimes there are very fine words in the abstract but when you

:21:34. > :21:37.are talking about building personal relationships, it doesn't help to go

:21:38. > :21:41.around calling your partner in government man who has stood against

:21:42. > :21:44.violence all of his political lifetime, has been consistent,

:21:45. > :21:49.calling him a coward. That doesn't sit well within the narrative that

:21:50. > :21:54.we all need to develop personal relationships and all the rest of

:21:55. > :21:57.it. The actions and words in the day-to-day political sphere need to

:21:58. > :22:04.match up to some of the more gentle talk that you hear sometimes. That

:22:05. > :22:07.is very important. The encounter with the Queen and Martin

:22:08. > :22:12.McGuinness, those weren't just fine words, they were actions. Martin

:22:13. > :22:17.McGuinness was talking about the relationship with Ian Paisley. To

:22:18. > :22:22.then go from that and say that your current First Minister is, in his

:22:23. > :22:26.words, a coward, when he has clearly stood against violence all his

:22:27. > :22:31.political life. I think that jars a bit with what Martin McGuinness is

:22:32. > :22:34.now saying. I think Ian Paisley himself that an awful lot more than

:22:35. > :22:42.I said in relation to that. The point I was going to make was that

:22:43. > :22:47.it is a pretty -- pity Mike has left. Because whenever I went to

:22:48. > :22:51.Windsor to meet with the Queen, it was Mike reported in the papers that

:22:52. > :22:55.I had attempted to hijack history. I guess the fact that we'd been

:22:56. > :22:59.invited by both Queen Elizabeth and the President of Ireland, this was

:23:00. > :23:02.me involved in what I thought was a very... And also Queen Elizabeth

:23:03. > :23:07.involved in a very important act of reconciliation. She has many reasons

:23:08. > :23:11.for not meeting with me and I had many reasons for not meeting with

:23:12. > :23:14.her. But both of us rose above all of that in the interests of trying

:23:15. > :23:21.to further the peace process. That is what we all have to do. We leave

:23:22. > :23:24.it there. I think you are going to circulate and maybe get yourself a

:23:25. > :23:30.cup of coffee. The rest of us can only dream of that pleasure! We will

:23:31. > :23:35.come back to hear your thoughts in a moment or two. Let's now hear more

:23:36. > :23:41.from Tara. We've crossed to the other side, not

:23:42. > :23:45.the dark side, the other side. They've allowed us into this end of

:23:46. > :23:51.the account to see what's going on. We are at the very last stages

:23:52. > :23:54.before the first candidate results. The pigeon holes are now empty.

:23:55. > :24:00.People are still sorting the last few boats into stacks in these

:24:01. > :24:05.trays, one for each candidate. Then they are moved over to the white wax

:24:06. > :24:09.at the end, where you will see that some candidates are getting more

:24:10. > :24:15.votes than others. -- the white racks. Boast of the tally is coming

:24:16. > :24:30.through aren't giving us any major surprises. -- most of the tallys.

:24:31. > :24:36.The UKIP candidate is getting a few votes. You think that is a personal

:24:37. > :24:48.vote rather than a Euro-sceptic vote? One would have to ask the

:24:49. > :24:51.voters themselves. There's obviously a big choice for people. Are you

:24:52. > :24:55.thinking maybe in about half an hour? I know we keep saying this,

:24:56. > :25:00.but now that we've moved down to decide it is looking a bit more

:25:01. > :25:03.likely. It's worth saying we are at the last part of the European Union

:25:04. > :25:06.to declare the result. I was checking with friends in Brussels

:25:07. > :25:10.earlier, they thought they haven't yet heard from Estonia as well as

:25:11. > :25:15.us. Friends in Estonia said their results had been declared, but in

:25:16. > :25:21.Estonian so no one could understand them. Tom raised some concerns that

:25:22. > :25:25.we still do the manual vote, that we don't have the electronic count. It

:25:26. > :25:30.do you think that is something... What is the picture like in the rest

:25:31. > :25:33.of Europe? In Belgium we have an electronic voting system, but your

:25:34. > :25:38.vote is imposed onto a computer card rather than being done by pushing a

:25:39. > :25:40.button. For myself, aesthetically and operationally, I think you can't

:25:41. > :25:45.really beat a piece of paper which somebody physically makes a mark

:25:46. > :25:50.on. I think that a satisfactory way to conduct an election. It could be

:25:51. > :25:54.done a bit quicker. But potential for mistakes wearers in theory you

:25:55. > :25:58.wouldn't have that with a computer system. But with a piece of paper

:25:59. > :26:01.you always have an independent thing that verifies whether the choice has

:26:02. > :26:08.been made with regard to the visual marks. In terms of the overall

:26:09. > :26:12.picture, the parties, some happy, not quite so happy. Most people will

:26:13. > :26:17.come away from this with something to celebrate. I have a question in

:26:18. > :26:21.my mind about the SDLP. Earlier tallies had them down a bit, later

:26:22. > :26:24.tallies were a bit more encouraging for them. But I think most people

:26:25. > :26:28.are going to be able to come away from this with a bit of a smile on

:26:29. > :26:33.their face. Diane Dodds looking as if she has increased her share. The

:26:34. > :26:40.last time was an historic low for the DUP. It would be surprising if

:26:41. > :26:43.she wasn't able to improve on that. Back to the Ulster Unionists and the

:26:44. > :26:46.low base of the council elections. What we are seeing is possibly a

:26:47. > :26:50.bigger Unionist vote overall. I will be watching carefully when the

:26:51. > :26:57.result do come through to see exactly what the results are.

:26:58. > :26:59.Torquil -- talking earlier, the disappearance of some of the

:27:00. > :27:04.middle-class Catholic vote, they just don't seem to be coming up for

:27:05. > :27:08.the SDLP and perhaps don't feel the desire to vote for Sinn Fein. The

:27:09. > :27:17.cliche always was there are a lot of middle-class Protestants who aren't

:27:18. > :27:22.voting either. The NI21, the panacea they were offering for all those

:27:23. > :27:26.lost voters, it didn't come to fruition. I wonder whether the very

:27:27. > :27:29.public troubles any 21 had on the eve of polling, whether that is put

:27:30. > :27:32.off voters who might have otherwise been tempted to vote. The answer, we

:27:33. > :27:48.will never know. Let's take a look at some people

:27:49. > :27:53.getting sustenance. They are tucking into some fair. It looks very

:27:54. > :27:59.appetising. Margaret Ritchie wants to know if she can have a share.

:28:00. > :28:04.Where did you get that, boys must remark is that Jerry Kelly?

:28:05. > :28:10.According to some people on Twitter, I have done nothing but mention

:28:11. > :28:15.coffee all afternoon. They have been hinting very strongly. The hint

:28:16. > :28:20.hasn't been taken. Plenty of BBC people up here, not one of them has

:28:21. > :28:23.come near me with a cup of coffee. Can be returned to the matter of the

:28:24. > :28:33.piece of paper that I had and then dispensed with? He has got another

:28:34. > :28:36.piece of paper which brings the story on further. The reason I was

:28:37. > :28:45.looking for that to be double checked was that it changed the

:28:46. > :28:50.order. It showed, hey presto, the SDLP edging ahead of Jim Nicholson

:28:51. > :28:55.in the running order. It had Sinn Fein very firmly out front, the DUP

:28:56. > :29:01.in second place and then the SDLP edging ahead. Obviously that is good

:29:02. > :29:05.news for the STL P, but they were only marginally ahead, and I deal

:29:06. > :29:09.there are more Unionist vote there in terms of transfers that will

:29:10. > :29:13.probably ring Jim Nicholson home. I'm also told that some of these

:29:14. > :29:19.tallies were based on votes counted prior to North Down, which is a

:29:20. > :29:24.predominantly Unionist area. It could well be that geographically

:29:25. > :29:27.the UUP will mount a comeback, but at least it's better news for the

:29:28. > :29:43.SDLP and they are in contention for at least a bit of the race. I

:29:44. > :29:47.presume you would welcome that? We were on 14. 3%, higher than the

:29:48. > :29:55.local percentage which is encouraging. It's down significantly

:29:56. > :30:00.on 2009. 16. 2%. Well, let me say in the context of this poll, and in the

:30:01. > :30:12.context of the local Government election, we are actually marginally

:30:13. > :30:17.ahead and being marginally ahead of Jim Nicholson is a clear omen. That

:30:18. > :30:22.doesn't necessarily mean if your candidate nudges ahead of Jim

:30:23. > :30:26.Nicholson that he will win the seat. It will come down to transfers. We

:30:27. > :30:30.saw what happened last time and there were only 4,000 votes between

:30:31. > :30:35.you and Jim Nicholson the last time, he was slightly ahead. The transfers

:30:36. > :30:41.from Jim Alistair carried him home ahead of where you are. If the

:30:42. > :30:46.situation is reversed where Jim Nicholson is 4,000 votes behind Alex

:30:47. > :30:49.Attwood it gives the SDLP an advantage and if you consider

:30:50. > :30:53.that... You won't pick up any transfers, that's the problem. We

:30:54. > :31:01.will. Not so many. These 40,000 between the greens and the Alliance

:31:02. > :31:04.Party. Now I think that we are transfer-friendly to a substantial

:31:05. > :31:08.part of that vote and that will give us a lift. The problem is you have

:31:09. > :31:12.the TUV votes and the UKIP votes and they're more likely to go to Jim

:31:13. > :31:17.than yourself. I would also state that according to our analysis at

:31:18. > :31:26.this moment in time the DUP are around about 20%. They need another

:31:27. > :31:32.5% to get to the quota and the pool of unionist votes becomes smaller

:31:33. > :31:38.from which Jim Nicholson could drop. Do you buy into this theory that the

:31:39. > :31:41.nationalist vote as a whole is down and that there are more garden

:31:42. > :31:45.centre Catholics now around who aren't bothering to vote because

:31:46. > :31:49.they find neither Sinn Fein nor the SDLP appealing to them? Whether

:31:50. > :31:57.they're garden centre Catholics or not, according to Nicolas White the

:31:58. > :32:02.vote has reduced slightly and I think that is a difficulty obviously

:32:03. > :32:06.for ourselves. What about the fact, we touched on this on I think

:32:07. > :32:13.Saturday's programme where you engaged in a bit of... Verbal

:32:14. > :32:18.fisticuffs, let's just say with Gerry Adams, who said he was

:32:19. > :32:21.perfectly happy to stand over his dislike publicly of Sinn Fein voters

:32:22. > :32:26.transferring to the SDLP because he had no confidence in the SDLP, he

:32:27. > :32:30.took - you said it was an outrageous thing for him to say. If Sinn Fein

:32:31. > :32:34.voters transferred in bigger numbers to the SDLP, you would have a much

:32:35. > :32:41.better chance of Alex Attwood winning the seat? Isn't that a fact?

:32:42. > :32:46.To this extent, if Sinn Fein are just getting the quota, then there's

:32:47. > :32:51.nothing for them to transfer. But if Sinn Fein exceed the quota and I am

:32:52. > :32:56.not certain they will, but say they exceed the quota by 1% or 2%, and

:32:57. > :33:01.those votes do not go to the SDLP, it puts us at a greater

:33:02. > :33:05.disadvantage. Nigel Dodds, what do you make of those figures? Am I

:33:06. > :33:14.right in saying that piece of paper you were given Mark had the DUP on

:33:15. > :33:22.about 90,000? Yeah, 95,000 I think. Although Alban has a later tally

:33:23. > :33:28.that puts Diane Dodds on 96,000 in compared to Martina Anderson on...

:33:29. > :33:33.Up a bit on 88,000 from five years ago, is that enough to bring a mail

:33:34. > :33:37.to your face? Of course, this is still with, I don't know, there's

:33:38. > :33:40.still a fair number of votes to work through the system. Our figure will

:33:41. > :33:49.go up higher. In fact, everybody's will go up a bit. We expect our

:33:50. > :33:52.numbers to be up considerably. I think this is a much more

:33:53. > :33:56.confidentable European election for us than the previous one, obviously,

:33:57. > :34:03.because remember Diane was a new candidate at this stage, up against

:34:04. > :34:07.an incumbent MEP. It was a tougher fight. This election will show that

:34:08. > :34:11.for all of the difficulties and challenges out there the DUP is

:34:12. > :34:15.confidentably the lead unionist party -- comfortably the lead

:34:16. > :34:19.unionist party. The final figures will bear analysis once we have

:34:20. > :34:23.this. One of the issues, two things struck me about the elections

:34:24. > :34:27.overall, is much higher turnout in Northern Ireland for elections than

:34:28. > :34:33.the situation across the water where Scotland and Wales are sitting in

:34:34. > :34:39.below 35% turnout, where the average for the UK is 43%, the average for

:34:40. > :34:46.the EU is 43%. Northern Ireland at almost 52%. All of this narrative

:34:47. > :34:50.that goes on about this terrible turnout, I would love to see it much

:34:51. > :34:54.higher than 52% but we are one of the best areas, one of the best

:34:55. > :34:59.regions in the EU. It doesn't say much for politics, does it? No. If

:35:00. > :35:04.people really cared about politics they would want to vote. That's only

:35:05. > :35:09.52% of the people registered to vote. I am sometimes struck by the

:35:10. > :35:12.fact that even in the elections to the US presidency and what could be

:35:13. > :35:16.more important than who is the President of the United States, you

:35:17. > :35:21.know, over 40% of the people in America don't vote. There is an

:35:22. > :35:25.issue here about a lot of people do not engage in politics and the rest

:35:26. > :35:28.of it. The only point I am making here is that when it comes to

:35:29. > :35:32.Northern Ireland we are a lot better, a lot better, in terms of

:35:33. > :35:37.turnout than other regions of the UK, indeed most of Europe, and the

:35:38. > :35:41.Irish Republic. We shouldn't get carried away, last time it was 43%.

:35:42. > :35:47.The periods of our highest ever turnout, if one takes the Fermanagh

:35:48. > :35:53.South Tyrone elections of old were coin dental with some -- coins

:35:54. > :36:01.dental with some of the worst periods of the Troubles. People

:36:02. > :36:04.don't feel as motivated... Quite often they were turning out to vote

:36:05. > :36:07.against the other side rather than for somebody. The other point I was

:36:08. > :36:11.going to make more generally about the political turnout this time is

:36:12. > :36:15.that undoubtedly, this dpen, we will have to wait until we get all the

:36:16. > :36:19.results, it does seem clear the gap between the unionist turnout and the

:36:20. > :36:23.nationalist turnout has increased. There is a greater difference

:36:24. > :36:28.between unionist overall and nationalists overall. That is

:36:29. > :36:32.bucking a trend that has been evident in recent times and what you

:36:33. > :36:36.are seeing now is more unionists turning out, compared to what we had

:36:37. > :36:40.previously and I think somebody said the gap in terms of local Government

:36:41. > :36:44.had increased, almost doubled in terms of unionist and nationalists.

:36:45. > :36:49.There is something going on here which is quite positive in terms of

:36:50. > :36:52.unionism and I think it's something we will be looking at. More people

:36:53. > :36:55.engaging on the unionist side and that's a positive thing from our

:36:56. > :36:59.perspective. Obviously the challenge for everybody, but on the

:37:00. > :37:03.nationalist side for the SDLP, is how to engage more people to vote in

:37:04. > :37:09.terms of future elections. How do you feel about the turnout issue,

:37:10. > :37:12.Alban. There are those who would say that the established parties have a

:37:13. > :37:16.vested interest in people not turning out in huge numbers. If we

:37:17. > :37:20.had 100% turnout the picture could look very different. People

:37:21. > :37:22.passionate about the DUP and passionate about your brand of

:37:23. > :37:25.politics are likely to already come out to vote. It's the people who say

:37:26. > :37:29.a playing on all your houses who might be somewhere around the

:37:30. > :37:33.middle. They're the ones not turning out to vote. Yes, I think you are

:37:34. > :37:37.right to think that people in the middle, as it were, are saying look,

:37:38. > :37:44.we are fed up with politics. We are fed up with the indecision. How do

:37:45. > :37:50.you engage them? You have to say if you don't vote, you are actually -

:37:51. > :37:53.this is actually a self-fulfilling pro-Fessey because you end up with

:37:54. > :37:58.the same people causing the paralysis in Government -- prophecy.

:37:59. > :38:01.We have to persuade people it's a positive thing to vote in order to

:38:02. > :38:05.change politics. Do you subscribe to the view if you don't vote, you

:38:06. > :38:10.don't have the right to an opinion? Oh, no, I don't. But I think that

:38:11. > :38:16.it's very important to... Some people do. Well, I think that would

:38:17. > :38:19.be fatal for a politician to adopt that particular point of view.

:38:20. > :38:23.People are entitled to an opinion and people are entitled not to vote

:38:24. > :38:32.if they don't want to vote. Some countries do have compulsory voting.

:38:33. > :38:37.They do. It is fairly well-complied with, as well. Do you think that

:38:38. > :38:42.would be a good idea? An increase in turnout would be a good idea.

:38:43. > :38:46.Whether you should compel people to vote, that would deserve a very

:38:47. > :38:49.lengthy debate. The other alternative is to give everyone a

:38:50. > :38:53.free lottery ticket on their way out of the polling stations, of course.

:38:54. > :39:00.As opposed to the threat of a fine, yeah. Sticks or carrots. There was

:39:01. > :39:06.one noted commentator who said he was making the decision not to vote,

:39:07. > :39:12.and he took that as a choice and you have the - Alex Kane. Some people

:39:13. > :39:17.might say to him any future articles you write... I have said it to him.

:39:18. > :39:20.He is not entitled to an opinion. I take the view people are entitle to

:39:21. > :39:24.an opinion if they don't vote or not. If you have not been in

:39:25. > :39:28.hospital you are still entitled to the health service, it might affect

:39:29. > :39:32.you some day. The point is I don't believe in compulsory voting for the

:39:33. > :39:35.simple reason in a free democracy, where everybody is an equal citizen,

:39:36. > :39:38.people should be free to vote or not vote. They shouldn't be compelled in

:39:39. > :39:42.terms of voting if they don't wish to vote. All right. Thank you very

:39:43. > :39:47.much. Interesting discussion. By the way if you want to contribute to the

:39:48. > :39:54.debate on Twitter Mark and I are checking our Twitter feeds as we go.

:39:55. > :39:57.Some of you are tweeting interesting messages still. If you are following

:39:58. > :40:03.that discussion, no sign of the coffee, but we live in hope. Look!

:40:04. > :40:08.The floor manager has the coffee. Peter will bring the coffee on as I

:40:09. > :40:12.hand other over to Tara. You enjoy that, well-deserved! With

:40:13. > :40:16.me is another one of the candidates, Anna Lo. What sort of vote are you

:40:17. > :40:22.looking at, what are tallies telling you? Well, we are quite hopeful that

:40:23. > :40:25.we will get the best result for European elections in recent times

:40:26. > :40:29.for the party. We are quite pleased about the results. What sort of

:40:30. > :40:41.estimate are you putting on at the moment, what percentage? So far we

:40:42. > :40:50.are between 7-8. We are looking good. Very pleased about the results

:40:51. > :40:55.so far. On the back of local election results recently, we now

:40:56. > :41:01.have representatives on seven of the 11 super councils. Certainly we will

:41:02. > :41:04.build on that and we want a shared future for everyone here in Northern

:41:05. > :41:10.Ireland. How do you think the campaign went for you? It's very,

:41:11. > :41:16.very tiring and to be honest, you do a full day's job in Stormont with

:41:17. > :41:21.legislation, with committee work and then out knocking on doors, and I am

:41:22. > :41:27.just getting ready for lying in bed for a little bit the next morning!

:41:28. > :41:32.Probably not, because tomorrow we are back to Stormont - actually I

:41:33. > :41:36.have early morning meeting, a breakfast meeting at 8. 30 am, as

:41:37. > :41:41.far as I remember. There will not be a lie-in for me. Lots of work still

:41:42. > :41:45.to be done. In terms of the campaign and the constitutional issues that

:41:46. > :41:51.came up for you at the beginning, do you feel that hasn't done your vote

:41:52. > :41:57.any harm? Well, I don't think so. To be honest really it was more the

:41:58. > :42:03.hype from the media about the constitutional issue. People feel

:42:04. > :42:07.secure that the status of Northern Ireland really has been decided by

:42:08. > :42:11.the Good Friday Agreement. What I said was very much one politician's

:42:12. > :42:17.long-term view and when you knock on the doors people don't ask you about

:42:18. > :42:22.the border issue. People ask you about jobs. Children leaving

:42:23. > :42:29.university and still sitting at home but no jobs to go to, about nursery

:42:30. > :42:33.places, not enough nursery places in Belfast, about hospital

:42:34. > :42:38.appointments, long hospital appointments, waiting lists, A

:42:39. > :42:42.problems. People really do care about bread and butter issues and

:42:43. > :42:46.quite rightly, because those are the issues of relevance to them. Those

:42:47. > :42:49.are the issues that a lot of people, you hear this time and time again,

:42:50. > :42:54.feel that the Assembly is not delivering. No, unfortunately the

:42:55. > :42:59.two major parties have not been delivering. People are very annoyed,

:43:00. > :43:07.very frustrated about the waste of money on a number of issues like the

:43:08. > :43:12.Maze, the educational skills authority and welfare reform. People

:43:13. > :43:18.are really concerned and mostly frustrated and saying, well, you

:43:19. > :43:21.know, major parties and bickering, the us and them politics and not

:43:22. > :43:25.helping us to move forward. Are you frustrated by people who stay at

:43:26. > :43:28.home? Whatever percentage each of the parties comes out with it's

:43:29. > :43:34.really only half of that when you think that half the people didn't

:43:35. > :43:41.vote? That's true. In fact, when you look at it you could ask yourself is

:43:42. > :43:46.this a democratic process? Half the population have not bothered to vote

:43:47. > :43:55.out, or half those who are eligible to vote have not come out. We are

:43:56. > :44:00.frustrated too, watching all the spoilt votes. Maybe the electoral

:44:01. > :44:08.office should next time around educate people more. We are seeing

:44:09. > :44:13.thousands of spoilt votes. People putting ticks and Xs, instead of

:44:14. > :44:19.numbering them. You think people were confused rather where they were

:44:20. > :44:26.spoiling a vote? I think so. People genuinely just - it may be, putting

:44:27. > :44:34.the numbers and seeing many people just ticking them or marking X. Or

:44:35. > :44:38.one, one, one. Those people, their voice and their voices have not been

:44:39. > :44:42.counted. I think maybe there needs to be more publicity, better

:44:43. > :44:49.communication to let people know how to write on the ballot papers, which

:44:50. > :44:53.are so important and people take the bother to come out to polling

:44:54. > :45:03.stations to vote and you want their vote to count. Are you frustrated by

:45:04. > :45:07.the length of time it is taking? It's the manual process that is

:45:08. > :45:12.taking time. I've long been saying this is so arcane. We are not having

:45:13. > :45:16.electronic voting, at least I think we need to have electronic counting

:45:17. > :45:23.will stop it is so easy for people to mark the paper and then for it to

:45:24. > :45:28.be read by a computer. Rather than to be read manually and counted

:45:29. > :45:33.again and again. At least it should be right. It should be right, but

:45:34. > :45:38.computers should be more accurate than human eyes. When it comes to

:45:39. > :45:42.the overall picture, is there a sense of relief within the Alliance

:45:43. > :45:47.party that NI21 have not done as well, because some people have said

:45:48. > :45:56.they were trying to go into an area that could have been traditionally

:45:57. > :46:02.your support? I know what it's like for week after week to be knocking

:46:03. > :46:08.on doors in all weathers. I do feel very sorry for the candidates who

:46:09. > :46:13.have put their faith in a new party. Claiming to have fresh politics...

:46:14. > :46:17.And I think they have attracted a lot of young people. I do feel sorry

:46:18. > :46:22.for them that they put their trust in a party that is now falling

:46:23. > :46:28.apart. I hope they will not give up hope on politics. That they will

:46:29. > :46:32.continue to be active in politics. Is that some sort of grind that you

:46:33. > :46:37.could be moving into, does the alliance need to appeal to the

:46:38. > :46:46.younger voter more? Yes, we will want to, to encourage them to come

:46:47. > :46:49.and join the party. I just hate to see people so enthusiastic in

:46:50. > :46:54.politics, particularly young people, for them to give up hope.

:46:55. > :46:58.What about the electoral pacts and this discussion over the weekend

:46:59. > :47:03.about Naomi Long's seat, how would you like to see that play out? We

:47:04. > :47:10.absolutely don't want to see it. We want to see fair play. As Naomi said

:47:11. > :47:14.on Sunday Politics, if they make into a pact of east Belfast and

:47:15. > :47:18.south Belfast, that is doing away with the democratic process. That is

:47:19. > :47:23.not giving voters the choice. I think people need to be very clear

:47:24. > :47:33.about this. Fair play, that is what we ask for. What now for the

:47:34. > :47:37.Alliance Party? What happens next? In terms of... In terms of political

:47:38. > :47:44.progress between the five main parties? We need to sort out the

:47:45. > :47:51.past. The parades, with the parading season coming back so soon, we don't

:47:52. > :47:59.want another summer of rioting and discontent. All those issues need to

:48:00. > :48:03.be resolved very quickly. Is there any likelihood of that, given the

:48:04. > :48:07.massive impetus that when did to the Richard Haass talks before

:48:08. > :48:11.Christmas? I think people need to put their hearts and minds into it.

:48:12. > :48:17.What stopped the progress in the last few weeks certainly must have

:48:18. > :48:23.been the election. Between now and the next election, hopefully the

:48:24. > :48:30.politicians will redouble the effort and try to sort this out within the

:48:31. > :48:40.next few months and get it over the line. Coming back again early next

:48:41. > :48:45.spring summer, we can put all that away. Thank you for joining us.

:48:46. > :48:53.We've had a bit of a personnel change on our special election set.

:48:54. > :48:57.Edwin Poots, from the DUP, has joined us. Nice to see you. Gareth

:48:58. > :49:04.Gordon, our political correspondent, is here. With the health warning,

:49:05. > :49:09.some interesting news you are picking up. As you know, Martina

:49:10. > :49:14.Anderson of Sinn Fein is going to top the poll. Everybody feels Diane

:49:15. > :49:20.Dodds comes in second, she is safe as well. Then it gets really

:49:21. > :49:24.interesting. I've been told by multiple sources, including the

:49:25. > :49:29.Alliance leader, David Ford, that it's a pretty tight squeeze for the

:49:30. > :49:33.third seat, and that's between Jim Nicholson and Jim Allister, the

:49:34. > :49:41.former DUP MEP, leader of the TUV, who is now... Jim Nicholson's result

:49:42. > :49:45.has not replicated the result that the Ulster Unionist Party had in the

:49:46. > :49:49.council elections. There are quite a number of worried UUP people in the

:49:50. > :49:55.body of the hall. I'm also told that when we get the redistribution of

:49:56. > :50:00.Martina Anderson Parkes surplus, then we may be eliminating the

:50:01. > :50:07.bottom for candidates. This count could go on even until tomorrow. Jim

:50:08. > :50:13.Nicholson will probably win. It's far from certain. OK. We are hearing

:50:14. > :50:18.that Jim Allister could be 2000 ahead at this stage of Jim

:50:19. > :50:21.Nicholson. I'm hearing a number of different things, but everything is

:50:22. > :50:26.pointing in the same direction. He is very close to Jim Nicholson or

:50:27. > :50:36.just ahead. A lot can come down to where Henry Reilly's UKIP transfers

:50:37. > :50:40.go. They would be likely to go to Jim Allister first and foremost. You

:50:41. > :50:44.can never say but you wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. Some

:50:45. > :50:47.of the other candidates who may be eliminated will have small numbers

:50:48. > :50:51.and probably they would not go to Jim Allister. You would imagine it

:50:52. > :50:56.would be Henry Reilly's transfers, the bulk of which would go to Jim

:50:57. > :51:01.Allister. He's hardly going to get lots of transfers from people like

:51:02. > :51:07.the Green Party and NI21. Would you imagine Jim Nicholson is going to

:51:08. > :51:13.pick up some transfers? In 2009, Jim Nicholson depended on Jim

:51:14. > :51:18.Allister's transfers. That was the difficulty, he didn't have the

:51:19. > :51:22.transfers. Absolutely. Jim Nicholson picked up a lot more transfers. Jim

:51:23. > :51:26.Nicholson was behind Diane Dodds in first preference but was elected

:51:27. > :51:29.ahead of her, she didn't reach the quarter. I don't think Diane Dodds

:51:30. > :51:34.will need that sort of help this time. We've got ten candidates this

:51:35. > :51:39.time, we only had six candidates the last time, so it's a much more muddy

:51:40. > :51:45.picture. Jim Nicholson I'm told, if he gets in and he could still be the

:51:46. > :51:53.slight favourite, it will be his worst ever European performance.

:51:54. > :51:57.Your thoughts on what Gareth has told us, it comes with a very large

:51:58. > :52:01.health warning, it is regulation, the figures aren't confirmed. Gareth

:52:02. > :52:05.says he's hearing that from multiple sources. I've been down at the coal

:52:06. > :52:11.face and have looked at the boxes. Our tallies would indicate there is

:52:12. > :52:16.a marginal difference between Jim Allister and Jim Nicholson. Is Jim

:52:17. > :52:19.Allister slightly ahead? It's marginal at this time. There are

:52:20. > :52:25.still some boats on the table to be counted, so that could change at any

:52:26. > :52:31.point. I suppose the issue is that the Ulster Unionist were cock-a-hoop

:52:32. > :52:36.about having a 0.9% rise in the council elections. I think this

:52:37. > :52:41.result here is going to be a devastating blow to Mike Nesbitt and

:52:42. > :52:45.the Ulster Unionist Party. This is a very poor result on their part. As

:52:46. > :52:49.Gareth has indicated, it is their worst ever European election result.

:52:50. > :52:57.My hunch is that Jim Nicholson will limp across the line very late in

:52:58. > :52:59.the count. It's a very poor turn up for them. That would be good news

:53:00. > :53:05.for you because the last thing you want is Jim Allister to take the

:53:06. > :53:10.seat. Your arch critic, the DUP's nemesis, and he's going to claim,

:53:11. > :53:14.whether he wins or not this evening, if he comes close, if he runs Jim

:53:15. > :53:18.Allister, Jim Nicholson as close as he might have done, he's going to be

:53:19. > :53:22.crowing about that with justification. It's interesting he's

:53:23. > :53:26.taken from the Ulster Unionist Party as opposed to the DUP. That is

:53:27. > :53:33.something Mike Nesbitt will have to look at. He took 87,000 votes from

:53:34. > :53:37.you last time round. Diane Dodds is already well ahead of what she

:53:38. > :53:42.received at the last election. We are very happy that things are

:53:43. > :53:46.moving forward. That it isn't the DUP that is nicking the votes from

:53:47. > :53:52.Jim Allister on this occasion. Actually, you took 66,000 votes last

:53:53. > :53:58.time round. Diane Dodds was down on what Jim Allister had in 2005, when

:53:59. > :54:03.he was your European candidate. He took a huge chunk out of Diane

:54:04. > :54:08.Dodds' total last time. It looks like he may have done the same thing

:54:09. > :54:13.again. Diane Dodds is already 25,000 up on what she won the last time.

:54:14. > :54:18.You can hardly portray us before the votes are counted, having 25,000

:54:19. > :54:24.more as being bad news for the party. But it's a far cry from the

:54:25. > :54:28.days when you are having 175,000 votes. And that would indicate that

:54:29. > :54:33.the shredding of the Unionist vote has allowed Sinn Fein to top the

:54:34. > :54:37.poll. People have engaged in that. That is portraying Sinn Fein as the

:54:38. > :54:41.leading party when they are actually not. This is not good news for the

:54:42. > :54:47.SDLP, whatever way you look at it. If these figures are correct, Alex

:54:48. > :54:51.Attwood was very confident he could take the third seat. He may now not

:54:52. > :54:57.be in fourth place but in fifth place. I'm not sure about that. I

:54:58. > :55:03.was looking at the figures I've just received in relation to the SDLP

:55:04. > :55:10.vote at the moment. That is that 78,000. I don't see either the UUP

:55:11. > :55:17.or indeed the TUV being higher than that. It puts the SDLP in third

:55:18. > :55:25.place, I think. We may not maintain that... In terms of first preference

:55:26. > :55:31.votes. We may not maintain that position but none the less, it's a

:55:32. > :55:37.healthier position and I was in in 2009, to be ahead of the Ulster

:55:38. > :55:44.Unionist candidate. And remember, there's over 40,000 votes from the

:55:45. > :55:49.Alliance Party and the Green Party that need to be transferred. That's

:55:50. > :55:52.quite a chunk. A lot of those votes could go to the SDLP, because Alex

:55:53. > :56:00.Attwood would be more transfer friendly than Jim Nicholson, in my

:56:01. > :56:06.belief anyway. Would it be your hunch at this stage that the likely

:56:07. > :56:11.outcome is that Jim Nicholson will win but it's going to be very tight?

:56:12. > :56:16.I think it will be very tight. I would hope that Alex Attwood would

:56:17. > :56:20.shade it, but it's going to be a close run thing. It was always going

:56:21. > :56:24.to be a close run thing. We were saying this for quite some time,

:56:25. > :56:28.that the battle for the third seat was very difficult call. Most people

:56:29. > :56:33.called it for Jim Nicholson, but they always said it was going to be

:56:34. > :56:39.difficult for him. We must wait until all of the boat side before we

:56:40. > :56:44.get too carried away. -- all of the votes are in. This will scare both

:56:45. > :56:49.the extreme Unionist parties if Jim Nicholson has done as well as we

:56:50. > :56:53.think. The Ulster Unionist are sweating over their seat, I also

:56:54. > :57:02.think there's quite a lot for the DUP to mull over as well. I think it

:57:03. > :57:07.will cause a lot of soul-searching within the DUP as well. We know they

:57:08. > :57:12.are not taking part in the planned leaders talks this week. I think

:57:13. > :57:16.they will mull over what it means. This election, became a very good

:57:17. > :57:22.time for Jim Allister. There were a lot of things happening which he

:57:23. > :57:30.could capitalise on. That has presumably pushed his vote up. Jim

:57:31. > :57:36.Allister's vote, according to our tally, is around about 11%. That may

:57:37. > :57:43.vary from one count to another, but around about 10%, that is, what, 6%

:57:44. > :57:50.higher than the local government elections? It's down a bit on 2009,

:57:51. > :57:54.he had 13.7%. It is significant number at which way you look at it.

:57:55. > :58:00.It is great credit to him that he gets that particular vote. But it

:58:01. > :58:03.shows the point that we have made all along in this campaign, that

:58:04. > :58:13.this seat for the SDLP was winnable. Whether we win or lose,

:58:14. > :58:18.but particularly if we win in a tight contest, it proves that we

:58:19. > :58:22.were right to say this was winnable and to sell that point on the

:58:23. > :58:27.doorstep. We just saw pictures of thymol Hamilton from the DUP and

:58:28. > :58:28.Francis Malloy can getting themselves some refreshments from

:58:29. > :58:43.the coffee bore -- the bar. He is in great evidence down there

:58:44. > :58:51.taking pictures. He took my picture this morning. He is still to get me.

:58:52. > :58:55.We will get that sorted out. He took a few pictures up in our direction

:58:56. > :58:57.as well. I think he has a photographic collection of just

:58:58. > :59:03.about every cultural figure in politics who has made any impact.

:59:04. > :59:09.You need to get sorted, you need to get on the list. What about that,

:59:10. > :59:15.what about what has just been sent there? I think there has been an

:59:16. > :59:18.upsurge in unionist turnout. It is a demonstration that Unionism is

:59:19. > :59:24.strongest when it uses the ballot box, as opposed to protest. We have

:59:25. > :59:28.had that opportunity. People have come out in their numbers and voted

:59:29. > :59:32.for Unionist parties, which has made them stronger in council chambers.

:59:33. > :59:35.Quite a number of seats which were expected to go to Sinn Fein have

:59:36. > :59:41.actually gone to various Unionist parties. Strong but very fragmented

:59:42. > :59:47.and very diverse and very splintered. Is there such a thing as

:59:48. > :59:50.a Unionist voice? Jim Allister says he has the Traditional Unionist

:59:51. > :59:53.Voice. You say you speak for Unionism but you don't agree on

:59:54. > :00:02.much. Mike Nesbitt doesn't agree with you or Jim Allister, he has a

:00:03. > :00:08.different view on things. We gree on far more than we disagree. You

:00:09. > :00:13.wouldn't think that. . We are competitors. We gree on far more

:00:14. > :00:16.than we disagree on. I have to look at the votes that didn't go to the

:00:17. > :00:20.DUP and ask myself the question why didn't they go to the DUP? I knead

:00:21. > :00:24.to respect those individuals and those people and I need to try to

:00:25. > :00:28.win those voters back to the DUP or indeed if they've never voted for

:00:29. > :00:31.the DUP to try to encourage them to come into our camp. That's how I

:00:32. > :00:35.look at these results. All right. We are going to take a little break on

:00:36. > :00:40.our set for a moment. Thank you for now. We will go back to Tara. We

:00:41. > :00:45.will hear the latest on the figures and perhaps catch up with some other

:00:46. > :00:48.political opinion down there. Yes, we are getting through our

:00:49. > :00:52.quota of candidates nicely down here. Henry Reilly joining me now.

:00:53. > :00:59.What are you hearing about your vote? Well, we are very, very

:01:00. > :01:04.pleased. It looks as if we will be between 24-25,000 votes. We entered

:01:05. > :01:09.the building with the expectation of 10,000 judged on our council

:01:10. > :01:14.performance. Now we have three representations on three of the

:01:15. > :01:18.super councils and a quarter - 25,000 votes here today, it's a

:01:19. > :01:22.tremendous result for us. I was asking Nicolas White earlier about

:01:23. > :01:26.who was voting for you, is it a Eurosceptic or down to personality,

:01:27. > :01:32.is it the local area voting for you? Within South Down we were very

:01:33. > :01:37.pleased because doing tallies we were in around over 4,000. If that's

:01:38. > :01:43.transfers to to the Assembly we should be in there with an Assembly

:01:44. > :01:48.seat. In general terms we are getting across the spectrum, people

:01:49. > :01:51.who would be traditionally nationalist voters, mostly unionist,

:01:52. > :01:55.but across the whole political spectrum we have been picking up

:01:56. > :02:01.votes and we do put that down to the Farage bounce. It started in London.

:02:02. > :02:07.It's moved right through the UK, up into Wales, Scotland and now into

:02:08. > :02:10.Northern Ireland. Five years ago at the last European elections the SNP

:02:11. > :02:14.said it was totally impossible for UKIP to win a seat in Scotland and

:02:15. > :02:18.they've done it this year. Anything's possible for us in the

:02:19. > :02:22.next election here. Obviously this vote will bolster your position as

:02:23. > :02:26.you say for the party going into the next elections but your votes, once

:02:27. > :02:32.they're transferred, are going to be crucial here, where do you think

:02:33. > :02:36.they're going to go? Our tallies were evenly distributed between the

:02:37. > :02:40.TUV, Ulster Unionists and DUP. I don't think we are going to be

:02:41. > :02:44.kin-makers in any sense. I think they will end up very important. But

:02:45. > :02:47.it does look like a fairly even distribution between the three

:02:48. > :02:52.parties, the three bigger unionist parties. Nicolas, just to bring you

:02:53. > :02:56.in. We are hearing horror stories of this going on into tomorrow. What

:02:57. > :03:02.are you hearing? Certainly it looks like the late tallies have been

:03:03. > :03:07.pulling some candidates closely together, we are hearing it's

:03:08. > :03:12.possible Jim Allister of the TUV may have pulled ahead of Jim Nicholson.

:03:13. > :03:16.If that's the case all the traps fers, everybody -- transfers,

:03:17. > :03:20.everybody's will be playing a role in who takes the third of the three

:03:21. > :03:27.seats. We may get a shock yet. We may get a shock yet. I can see a

:03:28. > :03:34.scenario where Jim Allister comes fourth. And Nicholson fifth. If you

:03:35. > :03:40.were a betting man who would you give the third seat to at this

:03:41. > :03:44.stage? My wife has forbidden me from betting and I do everything she

:03:45. > :03:49.says!s In terms of predictions, who do you predict as the third seat?

:03:50. > :03:53.The status quo, remarkable if there is a perfect storm that blows Jim

:03:54. > :03:55.Nicholson out of the European Parliament. At the same time,

:03:56. > :03:58.perfect storms do sometimes happen. Thank you very much. Back to you,

:03:59. > :04:04.Mark. There you go. A perfect storm

:04:05. > :04:12.sometimes happens. They do. We will see if this is a perfect storm this

:04:13. > :04:17.time. Mark has joined me again. Alban McGuinness and Edwin Poots is

:04:18. > :04:20.still here. We are on air until half past five and then there will be

:04:21. > :04:25.radio coverage. We will see how things pan out, we may be back later

:04:26. > :04:28.in the evening.ets a moveable feast at the moment. -- it's a moveable

:04:29. > :04:38.feast at the moment. Progress is slow. The picture, if anything, is

:04:39. > :04:39.feast at the moment. Progress is minute. Yes. You catch me scribbling

:04:40. > :04:45.away here, some figures off the floor there. This confirms a little

:04:46. > :04:50.bit of what Gareth was already telling you there about the sort of

:04:51. > :04:53.- the field in the middle of the field in the sense the SDLP at the

:04:54. > :04:57.moment are ahead of the Ulster Unionists and the TUV are chasing

:04:58. > :05:03.down the Ulster Unionists hard. This is what I have at the moment. Sinn

:05:04. > :05:09.Fein's Martina Anderson in the lead with 149,000 votes or equal to about

:05:10. > :05:13.25% of the vote. The DUP's Diane Dodds in second position with

:05:14. > :05:20.122,000 votes, equal at the moment to just over 21% of the vote. Those

:05:21. > :05:27.two we can say home and hosed. The third seat, the SDLP's Alex Attwood

:05:28. > :05:32.on 81,000 votes, 14. 1% of the vote. The Ulster Unionist's Jim Nicholson,

:05:33. > :05:38.10,000 short of that at the moment, on 71,000 votes. 12. 4% of the vote.

:05:39. > :05:43.And then just a short distance behind the TUV's Jim Allister,

:05:44. > :05:47.69,000, 12% of the vote. A percentage just slightly behind what

:05:48. > :05:51.he was previously, you will remember he scored 13. 7%, but a higher

:05:52. > :05:56.number of votes and that's because more people are voting this time.

:05:57. > :06:01.Then a gap, Anna Lo on about 40,000 votes, about 7% of the vote. UKIP's

:06:02. > :06:08.Henry Reilly with 23,000 votes, about 4% of the vote. The Green's

:06:09. > :06:13.Ross Brown and Tina McKenzie at about 9,000 votes each. And I think

:06:14. > :06:17.the Conservatives got about 1,000 votes which I haven't even worked

:06:18. > :06:22.out what percentage that is. Basically, at the moment Alex

:06:23. > :06:27.Attwood giving Jim Nicholson a bit of a scare, potentially as Gareth

:06:28. > :06:32.was hinting, Jim Allister coming into the mix. Jim Allister might get

:06:33. > :06:40.transfers from UKIP and Henry Reilly. Jim Nicholson might be

:06:41. > :06:44.hopeful of getting transfers frommen Allie -- from Alliance, but so would

:06:45. > :06:47.Alex at would youed. Those could split in different -- Alex Attwood.

:06:48. > :06:52.Those could split in different ways potentially. At the moment it's a

:06:53. > :06:56.fascinating battle there. I still think probably looking at that awry

:06:57. > :07:00.of votes probably I would still put my money, if I was a betting man,

:07:01. > :07:07.which I am not, on Jim Nicholson, but it's pretty tight in there.

:07:08. > :07:10.Martina Anderson will presumably have a surplus ultimately, which

:07:11. > :07:19.will be redistributed, it might go towards the SDLP? It's not going to

:07:20. > :07:23.Jim Allister or Nicholson? We were told the quota was somewhere around

:07:24. > :07:29.the 150,000 mark. All right. We will catch up on the latest developments

:07:30. > :07:33.from Tara who has something of import to report.

:07:34. > :07:36.Absolutely, I am joined by Jim Allister, the TUV leader. Tell us,

:07:37. > :07:41.are you going to be the third MEP? No, I don't think I am going to be

:07:42. > :07:45.the third MEP. But I am going to be returned back to Stormont tomorrow

:07:46. > :07:49.with a huge Province-wide mandate of something of the order of 75,000

:07:50. > :07:53.votes which very much strengthens my voice in demanding the basics of

:07:54. > :07:57.democracy, the right to have an opposition. Is that too much to ask?

:07:58. > :08:01.The right for the people to be able to change their Government? Is that

:08:02. > :08:05.too much to ask? The right to vote a party out of Government. The absurd

:08:06. > :08:11.failing dysfunctional system we have at Stormont denies all of that. A

:08:12. > :08:15.large part of this increased mandate for TUV is an upsurge of support for

:08:16. > :08:19.our stance. I draw great comfort from this result. I also look at the

:08:20. > :08:28.fact there is almost 25,000 UKIP votes. There is 100,000 votes of

:08:29. > :08:31.people disaffected from the present mainstream parties who have

:08:32. > :08:37.delivered such failure at Stormont and elsewhere. So, it's a very good

:08:38. > :08:40.day for TUV. I am delighted. The other very important thing is that

:08:41. > :08:45.the unionist vote has increased. Why is that? Because of the element of

:08:46. > :08:49.choice so that everyone had some unionist to vote for. That

:08:50. > :08:52.increased, brought out more people and therefore they will use their

:08:53. > :08:57.transfers within that system. So far from choice in a PR election

:08:58. > :09:00.shredding the vote as some tried to scaremonger, it maximises the vote.

:09:01. > :09:03.This is a good day for unionism in that regard. You are still only one

:09:04. > :09:08.voice at Stormont. You can't expect to get any of those opposition

:09:09. > :09:11.desires that you want with one person? That's another way of saying

:09:12. > :09:16.to the people of Northern Ireland, in this world you are second-class

:09:17. > :09:19.citizens, what everyone else has the right to even have an opposition,

:09:20. > :09:24.you will never have it? You will never have the right to vote a party

:09:25. > :09:26.out of Government? Can you realistically do anything, one

:09:27. > :09:31.person? The mandate, you have seen what I have done as one person. I

:09:32. > :09:34.returned -- I return as a strengthened voice and the battle

:09:35. > :09:38.goes on to attain more in that regard. The present system is

:09:39. > :09:44.ultimately unsustainable. It one day will implode. It will implode on the

:09:45. > :09:48.rock that if you don't have to be agreed on anything in order to be in

:09:49. > :09:50.Government, the day will come when they're so disagreed that the thing

:09:51. > :09:55.will implode. That inevitably will happen. Can I ask you about the

:09:56. > :10:00.comments on Facebook, some unfortunate social media comments by

:10:01. > :10:04.your new councillor, can I ask for your reaction. Can I ask when you

:10:05. > :10:09.were 18 did you ever say anything foolish? Hear, hear! She has your

:10:10. > :10:13.full support? When you were 18 did you ever say anything foolish? She

:10:14. > :10:18.is an elected representative and I am not. There was no social media.

:10:19. > :10:21.You are someone putting out there an attempt to slur someone... I am

:10:22. > :10:25.simply asking you whether or not you support the comments that she made?

:10:26. > :10:29.Did you say anything foolish? That's the question. She wasn't an elected

:10:30. > :10:33.representative, barely out of school at that stage. Come on, get real.

:10:34. > :10:39.You accepted her comments were foolish? I think that many of us

:10:40. > :10:49.have made foolish comments at -- at various times. If that's the best

:10:50. > :10:53.that the BBC can do, really? CHEERING Thank you very much for

:10:54. > :10:57.joining us. You are right at the bottom of the barrel. Thank you very

:10:58. > :11:02.much indeed. A forthright response from Jim Allister to those reported

:11:03. > :11:07.comments of the new TUV councillor in Belfast on Facebook. A couple of

:11:08. > :11:13.years ago. Maybe that requires 20 seconds of an explainer as to what

:11:14. > :11:17.she was talking about there. On Facebook a few years back, it's been

:11:18. > :11:22.highlighted not specifically by the BBC, but a lot of people on Twitter

:11:23. > :11:25.and social media, Jolene Bunting made comments about Catholics. I

:11:26. > :11:29.don't think I am going to repeat them word for word. But it's out

:11:30. > :11:32.there and that's what he is being asked to give a response to. That's

:11:33. > :11:35.the allegation and we haven't heard from her, haven't had an opportunity

:11:36. > :11:41.to put that allegation to her. Perhaps we will do in the future.

:11:42. > :11:45.Edwin Poots, just a response from you on Jim Allister saying he is not

:11:46. > :11:49.expecting to be made the third MEP or to be the third MEP from Northern

:11:50. > :11:55.Ireland. But he does go back to Stormont he says with a thumping

:11:56. > :12:00.great mandate for change. We go back with a thumping great mandate for

:12:01. > :12:02.the work that we are doing. That is to progress Northern Ireland, it's

:12:03. > :12:05.to increase the number of job opportunities, it's to improve

:12:06. > :12:09.healthcare, it's to improve education. Those are the issues that

:12:10. > :12:12.the public will want to see us dealing with. Northern Ireland has

:12:13. > :12:16.intractable problem that is we need to continue to work to resolve, we

:12:17. > :12:21.still have the issues of flags, parades, we will take a clear and

:12:22. > :12:24.consistent stance on those issues to try to get a better solution for

:12:25. > :12:26.Northern Ireland and have a more peaceful environment. I was brought

:12:27. > :12:29.in Northern Ireland throughout the Troubles, I am glad my children

:12:30. > :12:33.haven't had to have been brought up in Northern Ireland with a news

:12:34. > :12:35.every morning on the radio about another murder, attempted murder or

:12:36. > :12:40.bombing or shooting. That's a much better place to be. I think if Jim

:12:41. > :12:45.Allister is returned in the manner that he describes this big vote, I

:12:46. > :12:49.think it does further damage to the reputation of the Assembly. It does

:12:50. > :12:54.damage to the political system. And I think people who didn't vote in

:12:55. > :12:58.the election last Thursday should reflect very carefully on that

:12:59. > :13:05.because they could have had Alex Attwood in the job as MEP supporting

:13:06. > :13:12.the institutions and giving strength to the Good Friday Agreement. Your

:13:13. > :13:14.thoughts on Jim Allister's line, the present system is ultimately

:13:15. > :13:19.unsustainable? It's not unsustainable. What we need to do is

:13:20. > :13:22.develop partnership, the system is there for partnership between

:13:23. > :13:27.Catholic and Protestant, nationalist and unionist, we have got to reach a

:13:28. > :13:31.consensus in relation to that partnership and build a new politics

:13:32. > :13:36.which will be progressive and which will lead to the ultimate goal of

:13:37. > :13:40.the Good Friday Agreement, which is reconciliation between our divided

:13:41. > :13:44.people. The truth is we could have opposition in the morning but the

:13:45. > :13:49.SDLP choose to sit on the executive and sometimes some want to play the

:13:50. > :13:53.game they're not in the executive. That's not strictly accurate. There

:13:54. > :13:56.is no mechanism for a formal opposition at storm. They could

:13:57. > :14:00.leave the executive and could sit on the sidelines but they wouldn't be

:14:01. > :14:05.funded as an opposition and wouldn't have the benefits of a formal

:14:06. > :14:08.opposition. They would -- there would still be chairs of committees,

:14:09. > :14:13.vice-chairs, the services offered by the staff. A lot could be done. They

:14:14. > :14:16.choose not to. Let's deal with this. There can be an opposition if people

:14:17. > :14:21.choose to be in opposition but they choose to join... With respect, what

:14:22. > :14:25.Jim Allister objects to is Sinn Fein being in Government. It's not SDLP

:14:26. > :14:29.or the Ulster Unionists. That's not exactly true. He objects to Sinn

:14:30. > :14:35.Fein actually being in Government. It's part of what he objects to. No,

:14:36. > :14:40.it's the major - it's the core objection that he has to the present

:14:41. > :14:45.system. I believe that's wrong because I think we should include as

:14:46. > :14:49.many people as possible in political decision-making. We have to make

:14:50. > :14:54.that political decision-making much better and much more consensual.

:14:55. > :14:58.It's coming up to half past, you are watching our live coverage of the

:14:59. > :15:25.European election results. We are staying on air to 5. 45 at least at

:15:26. > :15:29.this stage. A lot of men and women trying to work out what's happening.

:15:30. > :15:31.We are hoping there might be some kind of first preference declaration

:15:32. > :15:37.sooner rather than later. There is where it will happen. There is the

:15:38. > :15:49.lecturn where the announcement will be made. We are ready to go. We are

:15:50. > :15:53.revising on air times as we speak. We are here for the next 15 minutes.

:15:54. > :15:57.We will see if we get an announcement within that time. Mark

:15:58. > :16:09.is checking Twitter and texts and e-mails. Can you bring us any light?

:16:10. > :16:13.You end up with your phone battery dying and don't get any messages!

:16:14. > :16:27.Yes, we are still in the waiting game. The fact he's sitting there

:16:28. > :16:40.outside of the door. We've yet to come up with a good label for the

:16:41. > :16:46.Haas talks. Some saw the Ulster Unionist is being rewarded. Mike

:16:47. > :16:52.Nesbitt disputed that. They were to some extent rewarded for that. Jim

:16:53. > :16:56.Allister put it, a block of maybe around 75,000 votes, that his

:16:57. > :16:59.projection for where he will end up, people who are disaffected with

:17:00. > :17:03.this. I don't think we are going to have any overnight change in the

:17:04. > :17:09.Stormont system because at least all sorts of other problems the other

:17:10. > :17:13.parties don't necessarily want to plunge back to direct rule it does

:17:14. > :17:17.affect how they do business and what deals they cut. But they have it

:17:18. > :17:22.within their gift to change the system, if they ultimately decide

:17:23. > :17:25.that is what they want to do. If you remember back to the Ulster Unionist

:17:26. > :17:31.leadership contest, when John McAllister was facing Mike Nesbitt,

:17:32. > :17:34.his view was at that point the Ulster Unionist should take their

:17:35. > :17:37.pens and briefcases and walk straight out of government with them

:17:38. > :17:41.and not worry about any kind of change to the system. One has to

:17:42. > :17:46.suspect that if the system were to change at Stormont, maybe through

:17:47. > :17:49.that unilateral action, because otherwise we have this circular

:17:50. > :17:52.argument which goes on, where people are saying, we'd like a change in

:17:53. > :17:56.the system, will the Westminster government change the system? The

:17:57. > :18:05.Westminster government says they will only change it if they have

:18:06. > :18:10.cross-party 's consensus. I want to ask you about what the implications

:18:11. > :18:14.of this are for Mike Nesbitt, if Jim Nicholson is successful, but if it

:18:15. > :18:19.is the party's worst European performance ever? He's been saying

:18:20. > :18:23.that it, we bottomed out, we've turned the corner, we are on the up

:18:24. > :18:27.under my leadership, we are bigger in local government than we were

:18:28. > :18:31.last time round proportionally. This is a mandate for me and a mandate

:18:32. > :18:40.for the party to continue in the way that we are. If Jim Nicholson limps

:18:41. > :18:46.over the line, how big a problem is that for Mike Nesbitt tomorrow? Not

:18:47. > :18:50.as big a problem as if Jim Nicholson doesn't limp over the line. He

:18:51. > :18:53.mustn't lose this seat. Not least because the party is dependent a lot

:18:54. > :18:56.on all the finances and resources that goes with having an MEP. They

:18:57. > :19:00.are short on elected representatives, they don't have any

:19:01. > :19:04.presence in Westminster. It takes a bit of the sheen of what was a good

:19:05. > :19:10.local election result for him. But I think he will still try and portray

:19:11. > :19:16.it as best you can. Let's hear more from Tara, who is still down on the

:19:17. > :19:20.floor. I'm joined by Naomi Long. The votes

:19:21. > :19:25.for Alliance do seem to be holding up. Guess, it seems to have

:19:26. > :19:29.increased significantly since our last showing in Europe. If our

:19:30. > :19:33.tallies are correct, we could put in a performance now that would match

:19:34. > :19:37.or even beat the performance of Sir Oliver Napier back in 1979, and

:19:38. > :19:45.deliver is the best European election result we've had in our

:19:46. > :19:50.history. There's a lot to play for. What would you put that down to?

:19:51. > :19:53.-year-old first of all, our candidate. Anna Lo is a fabulous

:19:54. > :19:59.candidate who attracted people from a whole range of backgrounds. She

:20:00. > :20:02.was able to vote people to come out for her. Despite everything that

:20:03. > :20:07.happened to her during the campaign, she retained her dignity and did the

:20:08. > :20:10.job well. I think she tapped into something in the Northern Ireland

:20:11. > :20:14.populace that has been reflected in a really good vote for her. I'm

:20:15. > :20:17.hugely proud of what she has achieved in this campaign. It could

:20:18. > :20:22.well turn out to be the best result we've ever had. With their jitters

:20:23. > :20:31.in the party on her comments on the constitutional question? -year-old

:20:32. > :20:35.no, we We know her. You simply can't be credibly cross community if

:20:36. > :20:38.everyone is a closet unionist. There are people from a wide range of

:20:39. > :20:41.backgrounds in the party and they are free to talk about that, but

:20:42. > :20:46.it's not their motivating factor and it's not our focus as a party. It is

:20:47. > :20:50.not an's focus as an individual either. I think the public respected

:20:51. > :20:55.her for her honesty and also the fact she is committed to building a

:20:56. > :21:04.shared future in Europe. I want to ask you about the transfers. Do you

:21:05. > :21:06.think the Alliance Party will be helping Jim Nicholson over that

:21:07. > :21:09.line? It's quite possible. Jim looks in quite a tight spot. We will be

:21:10. > :21:13.able to make better judgment later. If he finds himself in that tight

:21:14. > :21:18.spot, I would suspect our transfers are most likely to go to people like

:21:19. > :21:19.Alex Attwood and Jim Nicholson. It may be enough to help Jim across the

:21:20. > :21:32.line. We are here for another ten minutes

:21:33. > :21:38.or thereabouts. We will see if we are back after quarter to six. Still

:21:39. > :21:45.no sign of a result. I think the volume has gone upon the floor. I

:21:46. > :21:56.think we are nearly there. Are you saying that out of desperation? Sinn

:21:57. > :22:01.Fein figures... I think we are getting closer to the finishing

:22:02. > :22:05.line. The good staff who are working very hard counting all of these

:22:06. > :22:08.votes, we need to demonstrate our appreciation for them. They will be

:22:09. > :22:15.relieved to see that part of it over. When we get the first

:22:16. > :22:18.preferences, it doesn't necessarily mean... If Martina Anderson topped

:22:19. > :22:23.the poll and clears the quota, she is deemed elected, but there's still

:22:24. > :22:29.a process beyond that and she might not reach the quota, in which case

:22:30. > :22:33.the process is even longer. It looks likely that she has already reached

:22:34. > :22:43.the quota, I think it's around 155,000. She is just there then,

:22:44. > :22:46.maybe. That is 4000 votes over. For the benefit of people watching at

:22:47. > :22:54.home, what we are not going to get is an announcement of the three MEPs

:22:55. > :22:56.all done and dusted. There will be redistribution of the surplus votes

:22:57. > :23:03.that Martina has or an elimination of the people at the bottom. I would

:23:04. > :23:09.be both things will happen. Some people are saying, and again, I hope

:23:10. > :23:12.I can smile and say that this is not going to happen, but it could run

:23:13. > :23:17.into tomorrow night. The Belfast city count got complicated and run

:23:18. > :23:20.well into the early hours of Sunday morning. We've seen how slow the

:23:21. > :23:24.process has been across the water and down in Dublin, where there were

:23:25. > :23:30.recounts. It's not over till it's over. It is not the counters who

:23:31. > :23:34.count the votes up that will delay it, it will be whenever you break

:23:35. > :23:37.down fractions of percentages that someone has received and had to

:23:38. > :23:46.transfer them elsewhere. It takes time for others to work that out.

:23:47. > :23:50.When somebody is eliminated, if they put a transfer, that vote goes as it

:23:51. > :23:54.is. But when you've got a surplus, because you can't take the slab of

:23:55. > :23:57.the top, you don't take just the 4000 votes that happened to be left

:23:58. > :24:03.over, you would then have to go through the whole of the

:24:04. > :24:06.candidate's boats and work-out in percentage to their surplus. It's

:24:07. > :24:12.confusing for people because they think, how can you have 0.2 of a

:24:13. > :24:17.vote? The transfer is at a reduced value.

:24:18. > :24:22.That is the point. Someone was saying, who decides where the

:24:23. > :24:28.transfers go? The answer is you decide. That is why you express your

:24:29. > :24:31.preference, one, two, three, four. You decide where your transfer goes

:24:32. > :24:35.to. The people behind us are the ones who have to go through the

:24:36. > :24:40.paper to work out what it is you expressed. Some of Martina

:24:41. > :24:43.Anderson's voters may have transferred to Alex at will, but

:24:44. > :24:46.some may have plumped, simply putting down your Sinn Fein

:24:47. > :24:56.candidate or DUP candidate, someone will have to go through the pieces

:24:57. > :24:59.of paper, work out who has done what and sort out the maths from there.

:25:00. > :25:02.Quite a lot of people seemed to have put one in the council election and

:25:03. > :25:05.then two, three or four in this election, and those votes don't have

:25:06. > :25:10.any value. That is silly, has not been explained well enough to

:25:11. > :25:20.people? There should be, because they are two separate ballot papers.

:25:21. > :25:25.Hearing from my colleagues, 100... Speculation Martina Anderson's

:25:26. > :25:35.figures, 159,000, which is over the quota. We think the quota is around

:25:36. > :25:40.155,000. If that is correct, that means that on the first count she

:25:41. > :25:45.would be elected. So then there are 4000... There's a surplus of 4000

:25:46. > :25:52.which needs to be redistributed. And to do that... Not necessarily. If

:25:53. > :25:57.the lowest candidate is more than 4000 votes behind the next candidate

:25:58. > :26:05.then they will be eliminated. If the two lowest candidates will be low

:26:06. > :26:09.the third candidate... Just when I thought I was explaining it quite

:26:10. > :26:13.well, you have complicated it further! You are redistributing at

:26:14. > :26:17.the top and eliminating at the bottom. Redistribute the top, it

:26:18. > :26:22.begs a real difference. One other thing the returning officer will

:26:23. > :26:26.take into account will not only be whether votes will help somebody to

:26:27. > :26:31.get elected, but also whether at the bottom, any kind of accounting or

:26:32. > :26:36.elimination will help somebody to retain their deposit. That is

:26:37. > :26:40.another factor. You can understand the frustration of people at home.

:26:41. > :26:43.Someone tweeted me saying, I have a mobile phone with an app on it where

:26:44. > :26:49.I can control my heating at home from anywhere in the world. Why

:26:50. > :26:52.can't we have electronic voting? This happened very famously in the

:26:53. > :26:57.south, and I remember going down to a constituency to cover that at the

:26:58. > :27:02.time. They had all these great machines where you put in your vote

:27:03. > :27:06.and it all went in electronically. They made a couple of errors with

:27:07. > :27:10.that. One was that they brought all the candidates out and didn't tell

:27:11. > :27:13.them in advance what would happen. They just hit the button on the

:27:14. > :27:19.computer and suddenly said, within seconds, by the way, you, you, you

:27:20. > :27:23.and you are eliminated, you are related. It was quick but brutal. If

:27:24. > :27:26.they were to adopt that, one thing you would have to do is give the

:27:27. > :27:30.candidate is a bit of warning, because they were literally being

:27:31. > :27:36.executed in front of our very eyes. But the other thing is you still

:27:37. > :27:39.probably need a paper trail because if you then have a disgruntled

:27:40. > :27:44.candidate, Edwin Poots thinks he should have got more, and you tell

:27:45. > :27:47.him, well, the numbers are all in this computer chip. He might not

:27:48. > :27:53.trust you on that. You must have the option to go back to paper

:27:54. > :27:56.eventually. We just saw some pictures of Sinn Fein politicians

:27:57. > :28:03.taking pictures of each other. Michelle O'Neill was in the middle

:28:04. > :28:08.of it. Lots of politicians taking lots of photographs and tweeting

:28:09. > :28:15.pictures. I wonder if they know we are talking about them. It looks

:28:16. > :28:28.serious because they are on the telly. There is Diane Dodds with

:28:29. > :28:31.Jonathan Bell. We will see if she makes way towards Tara, and maybe

:28:32. > :28:38.Tara can grab a word with her because she has the advantage of

:28:39. > :28:59.being down there on the floor. The update, gentlemen, we are here until

:29:00. > :29:03.6:15 p.m.. It is a moving target. People on Twitter are saying we

:29:04. > :29:10.deserve a fish supper, not just a cup of tea!

:29:11. > :29:19.I have Diane Dodds with me. What level of support do you think you've

:29:20. > :29:23.got? We are delighted with the level of support, very strong support

:29:24. > :29:27.right across Northern Ireland. We have had a good campaign, a campaign

:29:28. > :29:32.where we were in every part of Northern Ireland. The support has

:29:33. > :29:37.been tremendous. That support has held up, we've had a good election.

:29:38. > :29:41.Starting from a low base the last time, what do you put that

:29:42. > :29:48.increasing support down to? I have spent the last five years working

:29:49. > :29:54.very hard, right across Northern Ireland on the issues that matter to

:29:55. > :29:58.people. To businesses, farmers, fishermen and to local communities.

:29:59. > :30:05.That support has paired off and we have worked hard at it. I look

:30:06. > :30:10.forward to having the first preference announcement reasonably

:30:11. > :30:12.soon. A bit of a drop for the DUP in the council elections, but a good

:30:13. > :55:07.boost for you in the Euro elections. that now inevitable. . People who

:55:08. > :55:11.have been most been targeted by anti-austerity are those who have

:55:12. > :55:17.least to give. People in the south like people in the north are upset

:55:18. > :55:28.at how policies and politicians across this island have treated them

:55:29. > :55:32.with distan. Alex Attwood signing in and getting his accreditation and

:55:33. > :55:36.wristband. Perhaps we will hear from him sooner rather than later. I

:55:37. > :55:40.wanted to ask you quickly, is it inevitable that Sinn Fein will be in

:55:41. > :55:43.Government north and south in 2016? Sinn Fein don't take anything for

:55:44. > :55:48.granted. What is inevitable is that Sinn Fein will use a mandate wisely

:55:49. > :55:53.and work hard. Council, Assembly, Westminster, Europe. Sinn Fein in

:55:54. > :55:59.Government, the prospect of that in 2016 in Dublin and in Belfast, does

:56:00. > :56:04.that put the frighteners on you? No. We will work with whoever we have to

:56:05. > :56:08.work with. We will progress things in Northern Ireland to the best of

:56:09. > :56:12.Northern Ireland and as I say, we look to our national Government at

:56:13. > :56:15.Westminster, Sinn Fein are operating a system in the United Kingdom,

:56:16. > :56:19.they've chosen to do that. That's something that we welcome. It's much

:56:20. > :56:23.better than what the previous case was and that was engaged in

:56:24. > :56:28.violence. We have over a minute left on air at this stage. It's been a

:56:29. > :56:31.moveable feast. We have a clear picture of what we think is going to

:56:32. > :56:34.happen but don't have a formal announcement and we are unlikely to

:56:35. > :56:38.have that by the time we go off air. Where are we, do you think? I think

:56:39. > :56:41.it's going to be no change in terms of the MEPs that we are returning.

:56:42. > :56:46.It will be Sinn Fein topping the poll followed by the DUP, probably

:56:47. > :56:49.the Ulster Unionists coming through but Jim Allister able to say there

:56:50. > :56:52.is a significant constituency out there and that's something the

:56:53. > :56:56.unionists will be looking over their shoulders at more than Sinn Fein

:56:57. > :57:00.needs to look over its shoulders at the SDLP even though the SDLP maybe

:57:01. > :57:05.has more credit as the count went on, they amassed more votes but

:57:06. > :57:11.still not in contention. Win we head up to Stormont tomorrow as we will

:57:12. > :57:14.do, what does the activity mean over the last few days mean in the