Local - Part 1

:00:00. > :00:07.we continue coverage here on BBC News. It is time for us to join our

:00:08. > :00:11.colleagues on BBC One and Vote 2014. Good evening and welcome to the

:00:12. > :00:16.BBC's new election centre. The polls closed at ten o'clock and we are

:00:17. > :00:18.waiting. Stay with us for the results, analysis and the excitement

:00:19. > :00:44.of the election night on the BBC. The general election is a year away

:00:45. > :00:49.and what voters have said today will encourage some parties and alarm

:00:50. > :00:53.others. Over the next few hours we will be live at many of these

:00:54. > :00:57.contests. We will get the results coming in and we will analyse what

:00:58. > :01:04.they mean. Everyone has their dreams tonight. The PM David Cameron is

:01:05. > :01:08.dreaming of a result which would show how he can win an overall

:01:09. > :01:14.majority in the House of Commons without relying on the Lib Dems. His

:01:15. > :01:18.coalition partner, Nick Clegg, humiliated in local elections,

:01:19. > :01:23.longing to persuade his members he can stop this right. Ed Miliband,

:01:24. > :01:28.neck and neck with the Tories in the opinion polls, dreaming of pulling

:01:29. > :01:34.ahead tonight and establishing a sound lead over the Tories. Then, of

:01:35. > :01:39.course, there is the wild card Nigel Farage and UKIP. They took bites out

:01:40. > :01:48.of the other parties at the last year 's elections. They are ready

:01:49. > :01:54.for another mouthful tonight. So, what's in store over the next

:01:55. > :01:59.few hours? We will get some results tonight from the 161 councils in

:02:00. > :02:02.England and more tomorrow afternoon when we get some from Northern

:02:03. > :02:08.Ireland. No elections in Scotland and Wales. They are voting in the

:02:09. > :02:11.European elections. We will be back on Sunday once the European polls

:02:12. > :02:15.close on the continent to find out who has won those elections, not

:02:16. > :02:22.just in every corner of the UK, but in the other 27 members of the EU as

:02:23. > :02:25.well. Nick Robinson is on hand to interpret the message that voters

:02:26. > :02:28.are sending and alongside him is a panel of some of the most senior

:02:29. > :02:36.politicians in Britain. And of course, Emily Maitlis, keeping a

:02:37. > :02:40.sharp eye on the battleground. We will keep this screen here to show

:02:41. > :02:44.you the live results. We will look at places the Conservatives are

:02:45. > :02:50.defending. How many will turn meant by the end of the night? And

:02:51. > :02:56.labour? `` turn red. Will we see them slip back? The Lib Dems? How

:02:57. > :03:01.many will still be yellow by the end of tonight? Exciting stuff. These

:03:02. > :03:07.results will come through to us from the various counts. We have cameras

:03:08. > :03:11.at lots of these key contests. We are live here in Swindon, where the

:03:12. > :03:16.Tories are holding onto overall control against the Labour Party

:03:17. > :03:20.challenge. We are in Kingston upon Thames in London where the Lib Dems

:03:21. > :03:23.are trying to hold off the Conservatives and, in rather, solid

:03:24. > :03:30.Labour Party territory for as long as anyone can remember, but we'd

:03:31. > :03:33.UKIP are hoping to pick up seats. That is just a few of the battles

:03:34. > :03:38.and many might turn out to be unexpected. Jeremy Vine, with his

:03:39. > :03:42.map of great return will analyse the picture and look at the figures as

:03:43. > :03:46.they come in and their impact all importantly on next year 's general

:03:47. > :03:51.election. There are two battlegrounds tonight. We have the

:03:52. > :04:00.map on the floor. Let me colour it in. The other battleground is

:04:01. > :04:06.Parliament. We are looking at the map to see what it tells us about

:04:07. > :04:15.who goes down that corridor in 2015 at the general election as a new MP.

:04:16. > :04:20.And, we already have the first results in and fascinating results

:04:21. > :04:25.they are. From Sunderland in the north`east, they show that UKIP is

:04:26. > :04:31.making extraordinary gains in local elections in place they fought

:04:32. > :04:34.before. Emily, you have the figures. Just for a health warning, we

:04:35. > :04:39.haven't got the full results for Sunderland. It is the share so far.

:04:40. > :04:44.We have put together the percentages of the share of the vote from the 12

:04:45. > :04:51.wards we have had in so far. That is quite an astonishing picture. Labour

:04:52. > :04:56.Party at 47%. That is mathematically impossible for the Labour Party to

:04:57. > :05:02.lose this. Look at this. UKIP come up to second place on 24%, the

:05:03. > :05:06.Conservatives are down to 23% of the vote. If I show you what happened in

:05:07. > :05:12.the change, you get the real sense. They have come from nowhere. This

:05:13. > :05:17.24% has been gained on one night tonight from nowhere. Each of the

:05:18. > :05:22.other parties take a hit. The Lib Dems are the most down, 15%. To the

:05:23. > :05:26.detriment of the Labour Party and the Conservatives. We have the full

:05:27. > :05:32.results we will bring you the picture. They are counting on

:05:33. > :05:37.quickly in Sunderland. They are always quick to count in Sunderland.

:05:38. > :05:41.That is extraordinary. It is. You spoke about the dreams of each of

:05:42. > :05:44.the party leaders. It reminds you that they have had nightmares as

:05:45. > :05:49.well. That will confirm their nightmares. David Cameron's

:05:50. > :05:52.nightmare is that the Tory family might fracture in a way that it

:05:53. > :05:57.simply cannot be reassembled in time for a general election victory. Ed

:05:58. > :06:01.Miliband's nightmare is that perhaps all the anger with the coalition,

:06:02. > :06:04.which is out there, is bypassing the official opposition and is going

:06:05. > :06:12.instead to a new Forth political force. The Lib Dems, they got the

:06:13. > :06:15.kicking in Sunderland `` fourth. We thought they were the emerging

:06:16. > :06:18.second force in politics in the north of England. The nightmare for

:06:19. > :06:23.them is that the recovery they dreamt of and believed in, if they

:06:24. > :06:27.simply persisted with the coalition, may never be coming. Nigel Farage

:06:28. > :06:31.will look at that and he will have one other slight nightmare. He might

:06:32. > :06:37.think it is his night already. 24% up, but not a single councillor

:06:38. > :06:40.elected. He may amass votes for his party in large parts around the

:06:41. > :06:46.country and still struggle to get that many seats. That is their

:06:47. > :06:50.problem. It is in a first past the post contest. Tonight selections for

:06:51. > :06:55.councils as they will be for Westminster are first past the post.

:06:56. > :06:59.You need a majority. In Europe, it is different. You can't

:07:00. > :07:02.underestimate the power to disrupt the political structure if you get

:07:03. > :07:08.makes in rows across Britain even if they don't win seats or have a

:07:09. > :07:12.chance at winning seats in Westminster. The sheer

:07:13. > :07:16.unpredictability of four party politics. Scotland and Wales have

:07:17. > :07:25.had that for a long time. Nationwide vote, it makes it unpredictable.

:07:26. > :07:31.They will be scrambling to get those votes back from UKIP, one way or

:07:32. > :07:36.another. These results will trigger a bout of soul`searching in each of

:07:37. > :07:41.the political parties. Should they confront UKIP? The Times tomorrow is

:07:42. > :07:45.leading with internal criticisms of Ed Miliband's decision to not do

:07:46. > :07:49.that. The Tory party will say, should we move clearly onto their

:07:50. > :07:54.turf? The Shadow Home Secretary in the past has made the argument.

:07:55. > :08:01.These will be treated even by results that don't produce

:08:02. > :08:09.councillors elected. Let's cross to the map of Britain. I'll give you

:08:10. > :08:13.some context. I will colour it in in the colour of the parties that won

:08:14. > :08:18.these councils last time they were up. They're in mind that 36

:08:19. > :08:24.metropolitan boroughs, held by the Labour Party, 74 district councils

:08:25. > :08:29.and 19 authorities, not forgetting all 32 London boroughs being

:08:30. > :08:32.contested in these local elections. UKIP is obviously or may well be the

:08:33. > :08:37.news tonight. They were the news last year as well. This was the

:08:38. > :08:42.sensation we were faced with. This is the projected national share from

:08:43. > :08:48.2013. We saw last year for the first time the two main parties forced

:08:49. > :08:52.under 30%. Both of them and the arrival of this craft for the first

:08:53. > :08:58.time you get. Almost one vote in four to Nigel Farage's party, 23%.

:08:59. > :09:02.14% to the Lib Dems and the others on 9%. That was the first time that

:09:03. > :09:12.UKIP appeared on the graph. That was sensational for them. Every go back

:09:13. > :09:19.further, a disappear as they did not figure. Let's go back to the period

:09:20. > :09:24.of the mid` 2000 is. I will bring the graph up now. Michael Howard,

:09:25. > :09:30.Tony Blair, what was happening here? Labour in first place, 33%. But of

:09:31. > :09:32.course reddish politics is that the nationally governing party gets

:09:33. > :09:41.punished in local elections. No exception for Tony plan. You that

:09:42. > :09:46.night in 2009 when they fell below the Liberal Democrats? Then we get

:09:47. > :09:52.to 2010. Important tonight as the baseline here for these elections.

:09:53. > :09:55.The comparison year, the last time these seats were contested. Also,

:09:56. > :09:59.the year the coalition won the general election. You know what

:10:00. > :10:08.comes next. They start to get punished. The Conservatives come

:10:09. > :10:11.down, labour comes up, Liberal Democrats take a bashing. You expect

:10:12. > :10:17.Labour to come up on as the opposition. And they are almost

:10:18. > :10:24.being suppressed here. The Lib Dems' ongoing horror show, you can

:10:25. > :10:28.see. It is hard for UKIP to turn its share of the vote into councillors.

:10:29. > :10:34.That is the difficult thing. The Dili, to turn it into councils.

:10:35. > :10:38.Let's show you this graph. `` particularly, to turn it into

:10:39. > :10:42.councils. This is Labour in power nationally. Here is the graph. Let

:10:43. > :10:48.see. You see conservative councils in the lead. And watch what happens

:10:49. > :10:51.here, as we bring the graph through, Labour struggles after

:10:52. > :10:57.three election wins, getting worse and worse. Then we get to a point,

:10:58. > :11:04.this is the absolute peak of the Conservatives in government. 9400,

:11:05. > :11:07.the combined total of the two other main parties in 2010. After they win

:11:08. > :11:14.power nationally, they come down just a bit. Labour come up. The Red

:11:15. > :11:17.Line does not quite cross the blue line, we will watch that tonight. We

:11:18. > :11:27.will also of course be watching that led them line `` Liberal Democrat

:11:28. > :11:33.line. It'll be interesting to see these results. We will feed them

:11:34. > :11:40.into our stats. Back to you, David. We join the chairman of UKIP in our

:11:41. > :11:47.Westminster studio. What you make of this result in Sunderland? 25 or 30%

:11:48. > :11:54.UKIP vote. Extremely encouraging. A very good start to the evening. As

:11:55. > :11:59.he pointed out, not somewhere where we have had a strong showing in the

:12:00. > :12:05.past. An area that we were looking to build, and a very solid start.

:12:06. > :12:11.What are you going to say to the refrain which will be constant

:12:12. > :12:16.tonight that you will vote win any councillors there, let alone an MP.

:12:17. > :12:22.In other words, UKIP as a kind of protest from voters? Well, I think

:12:23. > :12:25.it is hard to continue to make that point. What we are seeing, in the

:12:26. > :12:30.county council elections last year, county council elections last year,

:12:31. > :12:35.all of our performances were between 19.5 and 26.2%, right across the

:12:36. > :12:40.country. The point here is that this isn't simply a big protest, it is a

:12:41. > :12:46.very consistent amount of the voting public moving to UKIP on a

:12:47. > :12:54.consistent basis. What that does it tell the voting public that if you

:12:55. > :13:00.vote UKIP you are amassing... You are in good company. We are going to

:13:01. > :13:06.see higher figures than this during the course of the evening. Like last

:13:07. > :13:10.year, we will see good results, but councillors elected, and our county

:13:11. > :13:14.councillors have had quite an effect in quite a number of councils, since

:13:15. > :13:19.they were elected last year. I am not expecting this to just be some

:13:20. > :13:23.sort of ballast vote. This is really changing the shape of politics. Stay

:13:24. > :13:27.with us, I will bring in our guest in the studio. I am sure you would

:13:28. > :13:31.like to hear from the three parties damaged UKIP about this result in

:13:32. > :13:46.Sunderland. We are joined by the Liberal Democrats' member, and the

:13:47. > :13:50.chairman of the Conservatives. And Labour's chairman. You did not

:13:51. > :13:56.expect them to get anything back, did you? This isn't the first time

:13:57. > :14:01.we have seen UKIP showing presence in the north`east. They did not

:14:02. > :14:09.badly in South Shields. Also Rotherham and parts of the north. We

:14:10. > :14:15.are in an area of four `` era of four party politics. This is

:14:16. > :14:22.dissatisfaction with politics. In many respects, support and votes for

:14:23. > :14:26.UKIP is very much a symptom. It is not the cure. The challenge they

:14:27. > :14:30.have is illustrating that they can be more than a repository for anger.

:14:31. > :14:37.But why should they be discontented with you? You are out of office. You

:14:38. > :14:40.are the opposition. They are discontented with the entire

:14:41. > :14:49.political system. What have you done to upset them as Labour? What we

:14:50. > :14:53.have done since 2010, since we were booted out of office in our second

:14:54. > :14:58.worst defeat in history. We have steadily made progress since then.

:14:59. > :15:02.Many of the arguments we have been making, I actually launched our

:15:03. > :15:06.local election campaign in the north`east at the beginning of this

:15:07. > :15:09.period. The types of things I have been talking about to people when I

:15:10. > :15:14.was there was how we strengthen the minimum wage. We have to clampdown

:15:15. > :15:19.on zero hours contracts. And make sure that people continue to have

:15:20. > :15:24.good access to energy services. It has not been very effective. I don't

:15:25. > :15:28.agree with that. We have just had the results from Sunderland. Not

:15:29. > :15:33.even all of them. But you know, every bit of information is a help,

:15:34. > :15:37.isn't it? Well, you would say that. I would say that when I talk to

:15:38. > :15:41.people about the issues, UKIP is somewhere people can place their

:15:42. > :15:47.anger. Do they think that for example charging people to see their

:15:48. > :15:52.GP, which UKIP advocates as the answer might know. A flat rate of

:15:53. > :15:57.tax, and increasing it for everyone except the wealthy, they don't want

:15:58. > :16:00.that. At least that is what they told me. The Liberal Democrats have

:16:01. > :16:07.been wiped out pretty well in Sunderland. Not our finest result

:16:08. > :16:10.ever. Not your finest result. Not our finest result. But talking about

:16:11. > :16:14.what you were talking about is that the reason UKIP have had such

:16:15. > :16:19.amazing success and rapid rise, partly about being an anger

:16:20. > :16:26.repository, but they have also managed to sound like human beings.

:16:27. > :16:32.That is Nigel Farage's big win. All of us have gotten to the point where

:16:33. > :16:36.we are so guarded, we are so on message, that we seem to have lost

:16:37. > :16:40.some of our humanity. I think it is a very human thing that has

:16:41. > :16:45.happened, as well. As well as the dissatisfaction, it is the Liberal

:16:46. > :16:49.Democrats as the whipping boys in the coalition. I personally think we

:16:50. > :16:54.are the good guys and history will recognise this, but possibly not

:16:55. > :16:57.tonight. Nick Baker is not recognised as a human being in the

:16:58. > :17:03.same way that Nigel Farage news. I think he was, finally another in the

:17:04. > :17:12.last election debates, he came over as a human being `` Nick Clegg. I

:17:13. > :17:15.watched the debate and didn't interpret them as everyone else in

:17:16. > :17:21.the country seems to have done. One of the problems there was, I guess,

:17:22. > :17:25.partly being in government, we have become ministerial, or more

:17:26. > :17:31.political, and perhaps we have lost some of our humanity which Nick

:17:32. > :17:35.Clegg had four years ago. I think in the end there is the point that when

:17:36. > :17:45.this. Part, the substance which lies in need is very shallow. Early days

:17:46. > :17:48.from one partial result. Interesting result however. Tonight will be

:17:49. > :17:56.interesting to see. Voters will send a clear message and we will want to

:17:57. > :18:01.see what they have to say. In the end we need to deliver a long`term

:18:02. > :18:05.plan and solve the problems in this country. You don't solve those are

:18:06. > :18:08.easy soundbites and very quick solutions to conduct problems. You

:18:09. > :18:13.do it by having a proper programme which is rather old and boring but

:18:14. > :18:21.has stopped the country from going bust, which is where it was going.

:18:22. > :18:26.They are ready quick out the blocks saying the answer is packed with

:18:27. > :18:32.UKIP. You should stop sneering them and have a packed. This is from a

:18:33. > :18:36.well`known critic who want reason to get out of the EU. He didn't wait

:18:37. > :18:39.long. First of all, the Conservative Party the Conservative Party. We

:18:40. > :18:43.will stand as Conservatives next election. There is no question of

:18:44. > :18:49.there being a packed per se. But what tonight will be interesting to

:18:50. > :18:52.see as we get more results, we are anxious to see some of these

:18:53. > :18:56.long`term problems resolved. We want to see more being done to resolve

:18:57. > :19:02.them, whether it is getting that economic recovery, more results,

:19:03. > :19:05.more jobs, immigration, welfare, better education, all the things we

:19:06. > :19:10.have been getting on with which people want to see more progress on.

:19:11. > :19:15.But let's wait and see. It is early days. Let's bring you back in. Talk

:19:16. > :19:21.of a packed, saying you and the Tories should get together. I think

:19:22. > :19:27.talks of pacts are entirely inappropriate. Can I just say that

:19:28. > :19:32.you really did put your finger on something. The experience I have had

:19:33. > :19:38.at doorstops is the constant refrain from people that I am voting for you

:19:39. > :19:45.because I like the fact that you say what you mean and say things that

:19:46. > :19:50.other people don't say. And you speak straightforwardly, and that is

:19:51. > :19:54.something which undoubtedly is making people vote UKIP. What is

:19:55. > :19:59.happening in this campaign is that a lot of effort has been put into

:20:00. > :20:03.trying to channel UKIP's message back into the straitjacket of the

:20:04. > :20:06.normal way of political speaking. And it has failed. It has

:20:07. > :20:13.consistently backfired, actually. Thank you very much. Hold it there,

:20:14. > :20:17.we will get out and about around the country and see what is going on. If

:20:18. > :20:22.you are watching us with your computer and smartphone, just a

:20:23. > :20:26.reminder that you can follow the results online on our website. And

:20:27. > :20:33.you can watch the debate unfold of course on social media. Following us

:20:34. > :20:38.at our hashtag. Let's go to Kingston. In Surrey, our

:20:39. > :20:44.correspondent there, Alex Forsyth, the Liberal Democrats hold it and

:20:45. > :20:48.are trying to hold off a Conservative challenge which would

:20:49. > :20:52.be really bad news for the Liberal Democrats, if because of the

:20:53. > :20:57.coalition, they were defeated and lost the seat. How are things going?

:20:58. > :21:03.We are some ways of a result. We have just started counting the

:21:04. > :21:06.result. They have been verifying the postal votes, so we are not

:21:07. > :21:13.expecting the first result until 2am. Speaking to people out and

:21:14. > :21:18.about, to try and get a sense of how the candidates feel, the thing is it

:21:19. > :21:21.is a key battleground between conservatives and Liberal

:21:22. > :21:24.Democrats. The Liberal Democrats have held it for the last decade.

:21:25. > :21:29.But the Conservatives only need to take three seats to wrest control

:21:30. > :21:32.from the Liberal Democrats. Three and they are laughing. And they are

:21:33. > :21:36.confident they might have done that already. The Liberal Democrats hope

:21:37. > :21:41.that despite the fact of the sense of their unpopularity at a national

:21:42. > :21:47.level, they can use their local infrastructure, they are good on the

:21:48. > :21:51.ground here, they hope to use that to see them through. They know it is

:21:52. > :21:55.a difficult fight. And they threw into the mix the impact of the other

:21:56. > :22:05.parties. Labour have not had any seats on the council since 2010. A

:22:06. > :22:10.hope to take a couple. And UKIP as well `` they hope to take a couple,

:22:11. > :22:16.and UKIP as well are being told they might take some of the Conservative

:22:17. > :22:20.vote. But as you say, the thing is that the Liberal Democrats feel the

:22:21. > :22:23.need to hold it. They have held it for so long and if they don't there

:22:24. > :22:25.will be questions about whether or will be questions about whether or

:22:26. > :22:28.not that as a result of the impact of their party being in government

:22:29. > :22:31.nationally. I was going to ask whether the Energy Secretary, a

:22:32. > :22:35.Liberal Democrat, can hold onto his seat at the general election? I

:22:36. > :22:41.should have said Kingston is in Greater London, one of those

:22:42. > :22:46.boroughs. That means all of the seats Dopfer election in the whole

:22:47. > :22:56.of London. Most of the other ones, we are talking about just one third

:22:57. > :23:02.of these councils . `` up for collection. We will be back for you

:23:03. > :23:10.again. Thank you very much and keep us in touch with what happens. `` up

:23:11. > :23:27.for election. Let's go to rob a rum. `` Rotherham. We are expecting a

:23:28. > :23:31.result at three o'clock tomorrow morning. UKIP are putting in a lot

:23:32. > :23:37.of effort into this area. This is an old steel mill. It is a powerhouse

:23:38. > :23:42.of problems industry. Traditionally, it has been a Labour town, for 80

:23:43. > :23:47.years, 95% of councillors here are from Labour. The story is whether

:23:48. > :23:52.UKIP can take any of those council seats away from them. Labour are

:23:53. > :24:01.worried that they can take some of their seats away. Paul Sykes, a

:24:02. > :24:06.local businessman, just behind, he has put a lot of money into rather

:24:07. > :24:15.run. They have been leafleting all over the town to see whether they

:24:16. > :24:19.can take seats away. `` Rotherham. I think they will be disappointed with

:24:20. > :24:26.that, there are worried Labour faces here tonight. It is whether UKIP can

:24:27. > :24:31.take seats away from Labour. I do not think they will be taking the

:24:32. > :24:35.council away. Most people will be looking towards the vote on Sunday.

:24:36. > :24:38.I am not talking about the European election but the football, Rotherham

:24:39. > :24:45.playing in the championship, the league one play`off final. I think

:24:46. > :24:50.Rotherham will be staying bread for the time being! Nick has a brief

:24:51. > :24:55.word he would like to put in. UKIP are not running in as many wards as

:24:56. > :25:00.other parties. Half of the wards, when we talk about Kingston, they

:25:01. > :25:04.are running at about 25%, a quarter of the wards in London. They are

:25:05. > :25:06.doing well but not the national force that the big three parties

:25:07. > :25:14.are. Let's have a look at some of the key Tory Labour battles

:25:15. > :25:17.tonight. Emily has them here. Let's hear about them. These are the ones

:25:18. > :25:22.that the Conservatives are defending tonight, some of them, I should say.

:25:23. > :25:26.These many of them in labours grasp, if they are having a good night. Let

:25:27. > :25:30.me explain the board, these are marginal at the top, the ones that

:25:31. > :25:35.could be most easily lost. As we scroll down, they get more secure.

:25:36. > :25:42.They are less honourable. Let me take you inside the make`up the

:25:43. > :25:45.Swindon council. It is a two horse race between the Conservatives and

:25:46. > :25:49.Labour but they have a slim majority of one here, if they lose one

:25:50. > :25:52.councillor here tonight, then this council goes into no overall

:25:53. > :25:57.control, in other words, the Tories no longer have control. But Labour

:25:58. > :26:02.still need six seats to take it. It is more than ask. They could do it,

:26:03. > :26:06.we will get a sense of that direction of travel as to how many

:26:07. > :26:18.games they are making. Croydon, in south London, it has changed a lot

:26:19. > :26:23.`` gains. They can take the Labour vote, put the Conservative vote

:26:24. > :26:28.down. There could be a switch from Conservative to Labour. Let's go to

:26:29. > :26:30.Tamworth, there are a lot of key polymer treat marginals in this part

:26:31. > :26:37.of the world. It will be closely watched for next year 's general

:26:38. > :26:43.election, Labour are fighting hard. `` key marginals in this part of the

:26:44. > :26:47.world. This shows that Labour have been coming up after the election,

:26:48. > :26:51.the Tories have dropped slightly. We have not mentioned much in this bit

:26:52. > :26:57.about Basildon, about UKIP, I was going to say. This is somewhere that

:26:58. > :27:05.labour... So you can did extraordinarily well, at a county

:27:06. > :27:20.council level. `` labour. They got 30% of the vote, how will they do in

:27:21. > :27:24.Basildon Labour. ? ``. We will be looking to see how they do in their

:27:25. > :27:29.performance. UKIP have about 230 councillors, don't they? At the

:27:30. > :27:35.moment. They have 4200 council seats. It will be interesting to

:27:36. > :27:41.see. The experts in these matters say that if they get up towards

:27:42. > :27:46.100, 80 seats, then they will be doing well. You were talking last

:27:47. > :27:49.year, if you could literally having a handful of councillors each

:27:50. > :27:51.election for a series of elections, 147 games lasted. You will talking

:27:52. > :27:59.about being a high watermark for about being a high watermark for

:28:00. > :28:07.them. It is quite small compared with the totals of others. ``

:28:08. > :28:11.gains. Let's go down to Swindon. Let's join the political editor of

:28:12. > :28:16.the West of England, a big area to cover. We were talking about

:28:17. > :28:23.Swindon. What do you detect as happening in Swindon itself? It is

:28:24. > :28:28.very interesting indeed. We were talking about barometer seats,

:28:29. > :28:32.places that you get an indication about the election from. In the past

:28:33. > :28:37.30 years, the winning party has won the keys to Downing Street. This is

:28:38. > :28:39.a council that really matters, a two horse race between the Conservatives

:28:40. > :28:43.with a majority of only one at the moment, and Labour who are

:28:44. > :28:49.challenging. I have spoken to senior Conservatives here tonight, local

:28:50. > :28:52.MPs, the council leader, they are very bullish indeed. Not only of

:28:53. > :28:58.holding onto their majority but even increasing it. There is a distinct

:28:59. > :29:03.likelihood I would say at this point that Labour could go backwards

:29:04. > :29:06.slightly in Swindon. Losing a seat to the Conservatives, even a

:29:07. > :29:13.possibility of the Lib Dems even picking up his seat. Specific local

:29:14. > :29:17.issues at play here. We are looking at both parties holding onto what

:29:18. > :29:22.they have `` picking up a seat. Labour could backwards. But, you

:29:23. > :29:28.should not be going backwards, could you? Let's have a look at the result

:29:29. > :29:30.in Swindon first. I expecting to go backwards anywhere tonight? Not

:29:31. > :29:33.particularly but what we are hoping to do is make good and steady

:29:34. > :29:38.progress. I think about 150 games would be good for us, we are going

:29:39. > :29:44.to be keeping a close eye in the southern marginal areas where we

:29:45. > :29:49.could form a majority in the next general election `` gains. In

:29:50. > :29:56.Cambridge or Redbridge. You are modest, 150, I quote the experts...

:29:57. > :30:00.They said 400 `500 gains compared to previous... You have to factor in

:30:01. > :30:05.that the last time many of these local authorities were up to

:30:06. > :30:09.election was back in 2010, and many of these were in Labour areas, and

:30:10. > :30:14.the higher turnout that we had during the general election then,

:30:15. > :30:23.actually, if you look at London, for example, in my borough in Lambeth,

:30:24. > :30:27.we did very well in spite of very difficult national picture. I got

:30:28. > :30:31.this information from John Curtis who is studying these things

:30:32. > :30:34.throughout the night back there, he says that any claim you are making

:30:35. > :30:38.progress is somewhat belied, I am using his words, by the fact that

:30:39. > :30:44.your vote is so far down, by 16 points since 2012 in the Sunderland

:30:45. > :30:50.wards, that is a lot. I was talking relative to 2010. We have only had a

:30:51. > :30:54.few results in so far, David. Can I pick up on... ? It is a modest

:30:55. > :30:58.ambition. In the general election in 2010, and the local elections there.

:30:59. > :31:05.What we called the projected national share, the share was 27%.

:31:06. > :31:10.We are talking of the second worst result in Labour 's history, after

:31:11. > :31:15.Michael foot in 1983, to set 150 councillor gains as your benchmark,

:31:16. > :31:20.that is about as low as credibility can get. We have a long evening. I

:31:21. > :31:27.do not want to run out of things to say! What are you saying? I am not

:31:28. > :31:34.saying anything at all! Let's go to Basildon. Andrea Sinclair is our

:31:35. > :31:39.correspondent `` Andrew Sinclair. What has happened to UKIP is the

:31:40. > :31:44.question here? They won a by`election there last year, Andrew?

:31:45. > :31:48.It is very interesting, as Emily said, they had a good turnout here

:31:49. > :31:51.and a good result and the county council elections. This is one of

:31:52. > :31:54.the places where we could see the Labour advance, that Jeremy was

:31:55. > :31:57.talking about, being squeezed by UKIP tonight. The Tories have run

:31:58. > :32:01.this authority for the last 11 years, and Labour have been

:32:02. > :32:05.gradually whistling away at their majority, and the expectation was

:32:06. > :32:10.that we could see some notable Labour games tonight. Labour are

:32:11. > :32:24.expecting to make some gains tonight. `` Labour gains. ``

:32:25. > :32:28.whittling away. There are going to be some gains tonight, that will

:32:29. > :32:31.temper the Labour advance. Labour are saying that all the East Anglia

:32:32. > :32:35.they will make gains but it will not be on the scale that they were

:32:36. > :32:39.hoping for. Earlier on, you were saying that you were not expecting

:32:40. > :32:44.Labour to go backwards anywhere, but in great Yarmouth, Labour locally,

:32:45. > :32:47.where they run the council, they are expected to lose control of the

:32:48. > :32:54.council tomorrow because of the UKIP surge. `` Great Yarmouth. Thank you

:32:55. > :33:00.for that, let's have a look at UKIP voters, people who say they will

:33:01. > :33:08.vote this time or in the Euro elections, they take place at the

:33:09. > :33:12.same time. What will they do during the general election? That is the

:33:13. > :33:15.important thing, there could be a protest vote or they could decide to

:33:16. > :33:20.stick. That is what UKIP will be watching. That is the point exactly,

:33:21. > :33:26.where these UKIP votes will go next year in the general election. Let's

:33:27. > :33:29.have a look at the map, and bring up the new map. Let's register the fact

:33:30. > :33:32.that there is not a lot of colouring in. The night is still young. There

:33:33. > :33:37.are a lot of results to come in. Let's have a look at this line graph

:33:38. > :33:45.which could give us some recent history. 1999, and European

:33:46. > :33:48.elections that year, you can see a paddle that UKIP is strong in

:33:49. > :33:53.European elections and in general elections they fall back. 1999, they

:33:54. > :33:59.were not completely on the radar. 7%. In 2001 there went out to%. You

:34:00. > :34:03.know what is coming, in 2004, they do better, they do better each year

:34:04. > :34:08.with the European elections. In 2005, look at this exact, they

:34:09. > :34:13.cannot get noticed in general elections. In this succession of

:34:14. > :34:17.years that we are showing you. Up they go even higher in 2009, the

:34:18. > :34:24.last European elections. 2010, a long way down. And then up again.

:34:25. > :34:28.This last one is local elections. A different figure that we are showing

:34:29. > :34:31.you. Today, those European elections, we will see the results

:34:32. > :34:34.on Sunday. You can see that pattern, that in general elections, the key

:34:35. > :34:38.being sliced away by other parties. They are not fully part of that

:34:39. > :34:45.debate. The question for us here is whether something is changing.

:34:46. > :34:49.Whether next year there could be a completely different outcome for

:34:50. > :34:53.UKIP. Let me show you a small bit of evidence, that suggests they could

:34:54. > :34:58.be a change going on. We are looking here at the last European elections

:34:59. > :35:02.in 2009, these are all UKIP voters here. They voted for UKIP in the

:35:03. > :35:06.European elections but then, they were asked how they would vote in

:35:07. > :35:15.the general election. The figure is poor for UKIP, only 26% will stay

:35:16. > :35:21.with the party. 44% will vote Conservative. They would drift from

:35:22. > :35:27.UKIP to the Conservative party. This craft is now changing. The reading

:35:28. > :35:31.was taken again for these European elections, and let's have a look...

:35:32. > :35:43.Let's see how resilient UKIP Spode is this year. `` the UKIP vote is.

:35:44. > :35:51.58% so that they will vote UKIP in the general election. A big drop for

:35:52. > :35:56.the Conservatives, they are not voting. `` 58% say that they will

:35:57. > :36:06.vote UKIP. It makes you wonder, whether this exact line were to come

:36:07. > :36:11.to an end, and the level of support that we could see tonight, and we

:36:12. > :36:14.could see on the results light of the European elections could be

:36:15. > :36:20.sustained next year in the general election. Thank you very much. ``

:36:21. > :36:26.results night. That could be trouble for you, Grant? Everyone knows

:36:27. > :36:30.something from local elections would general elections, that is

:36:31. > :36:38.difficult. The key message tonight is the message from the voters, and

:36:39. > :36:47.what they will be sending. We will have to wait for more results, and

:36:48. > :36:50.see the pattern that could emerge. People would conclude that people

:36:51. > :36:53.are anxious to see more action on the key issues that matter. You have

:36:54. > :36:56.less than a year to go, a 58 cents of the people who vote for UKIP say

:36:57. > :37:01.they will vote for them again, it will dent your...? `` 58%. We have a

:37:02. > :37:07.long`term plan whether people in this country can get back on track.

:37:08. > :37:26.They will do that with job security. What is the long`term plan? We took

:37:27. > :37:31.over at a time when there was a ?160 billion debt. There were spending

:37:32. > :37:35.more than they received. Let me give you a practical example. The 1.5

:37:36. > :37:41.million people who have jobs today that didn't have jobs at the last

:37:42. > :37:45.election, those people understand what the long`term plan is. They are

:37:46. > :37:52.will things people, people are feeling the economic and efforts of

:37:53. > :37:57.recovery. Many of the jobs are insecure. We have a record number of

:37:58. > :38:05.people on zero hours contract. Half a million people working in

:38:06. > :38:11.temporary work, not full`time work. Let me answer that one point. What

:38:12. > :38:13.is insecure is that every Labour government in history has left

:38:14. > :38:26.unemployment higher than when they came in. Many people will wonder

:38:27. > :38:30.what this man is saying. Leave the tit for tat for a moment. We

:38:31. > :38:36.some results in. They have won a seat, not officially, but according

:38:37. > :38:44.to the former Labour Lord Mayor, he told the Daily Mail he has lost his

:38:45. > :38:55.seat to UKIP. It may be the first. John Curtis, our resident bureau.

:38:56. > :39:03.King of all he surveys, `` resident guru. Bring us your view of what we

:39:04. > :39:07.can make of what we have heard so far on UKIP. It is a UKIP story at

:39:08. > :39:12.the moment. We have heard Jeremy Vine talking about how people will

:39:13. > :39:14.stick with UKIP. Here we have three politicians from the other parties

:39:15. > :39:22.trying to show they are not desperately worried. The first word

:39:23. > :39:24.of caution is that all the detailed results we have had have been for

:39:25. > :39:28.Sunderland. We have two allow the possibility that Sunderland is maybe

:39:29. > :39:31.not typical of the rest of the country. Reports from our

:39:32. > :39:35.correspondent suggest the high UKIP vote there may not be the exception

:39:36. > :39:40.rather than the rule. Intriguingly, so far, inside Sutherland, UKIP are

:39:41. > :39:47.averaging 26% of the vote `` Sunderland. In the last elections,

:39:48. > :39:54.they got an average of 25%. In other words, so far, in this one corner of

:39:55. > :39:59.England. They are doing as well as they did across the whole of England

:40:00. > :40:04.last year. We may perhaps be looking at a UKIP performance not dissimilar

:40:05. > :40:10.to that we saw 12 months ago, which at the time was regarded as truly

:40:11. > :40:22.remarkable. We will have to wait and see. We have another game, a Lord in

:40:23. > :40:27.Basildom for UKIP. You were talking about 80 or so gains tonight. The

:40:28. > :40:35.point is that if UKIP are indeed doing as well as they did last year,

:40:36. > :40:38.they will start to pick up seats. `` Basildon. There are enough places

:40:39. > :40:44.where they will begin to get first and second is, and we will into the

:40:45. > :40:50.notable UKIP gains through the course of the night. Remember, it is

:40:51. > :40:55.so far mostly just Sunderland. We must not get carried away, although

:40:56. > :40:58.there is something about the first results which come in, you keep

:40:59. > :41:06.talking about them until the second results come in. But Nick, what will

:41:07. > :41:08.be the effect, if UKIP makes the kind of headway they are making only

:41:09. > :41:13.three political parties and their leadership in particular, in your

:41:14. > :41:18.view? There will be pressure on each of them in turn. We are already

:41:19. > :41:22.seeing that. Unnamed Labour ministers, a newspaper which wants

:41:23. > :41:29.to damage Ed Miliband, which is why they put it on their front page, but

:41:30. > :41:32.nevertheless, people are willing to go into print saying Ed Miliband has

:41:33. > :41:37.got it wrong and should have confronted UKIP directly. He is

:41:38. > :41:43.personally not doing well. There are people calling for a packed, we have

:41:44. > :41:51.Douglas Carswell doing it, so they will have a debate. `` pact. And a

:41:52. > :41:55.prize for candour, as some politicians are interpreted as not

:41:56. > :42:01.being human enough. How do they rediscover that human touch? One

:42:02. > :42:08.last thought. This changes UKIP as well. Half until now, they have

:42:09. > :42:14.really been a one man Dan. It has been a decision being capable of

:42:15. > :42:20.being taken by a Nigel Farage. `` up until now. Once you put roots down

:42:21. > :42:25.as a party you have structures and end up with democracy. People wish

:42:26. > :42:30.to have a say about what you do. It is no longer simply a question of

:42:31. > :42:34.going to Mr Farrow is an saying, what you think policy is today or

:42:35. > :42:38.tomorrow. Once they have this presents around the country, it will

:42:39. > :42:44.start to be a living and breathing political organisation `` Mr Nigel

:42:45. > :42:50.Farage. Do you go to Nigel Farage and say what do you do today? No we

:42:51. > :42:58.don't, actually. We are very democratic. I love the 1`man band

:42:59. > :43:02.argument. There is a strong group of people behind Nigel Farage, we are a

:43:03. > :43:07.very democratic organisation. I asked him on the campaign trail, are

:43:08. > :43:11.you in favour of privatising the NHS? Nowhere not, he said, but we

:43:12. > :43:17.haven't developed our policy on that yet. But your Deputy Leader is in

:43:18. > :43:22.favour of it. And he replied, he is only the Deputy Leader. A leader

:43:23. > :43:28.simply brushing away the comment of his deputy. You are misinterpreting

:43:29. > :43:34.what he said. Point was that he hadn't developed policy. It is being

:43:35. > :43:38.developed by experts. That is how our policy builds. Through using the

:43:39. > :43:43.expertise which exist within the party. Nigel will express an

:43:44. > :43:50.opinion, and others will as well, it doesn't mean that anyone is saying

:43:51. > :43:55.that this is our policy. You accept that the manifesto at the last

:43:56. > :44:02.election was rubbish, and it has all been torn up and you have to start

:44:03. > :44:08.from scratch. That is pretty much the case, isn't it? Or parties start

:44:09. > :44:12.from scratch. The difficulty we had is a very extensive manifesto at the

:44:13. > :44:17.last general election. It was an extraordinarily deep piece of work.

:44:18. > :44:24.Like any party... I remember nobody read it. Your leader hadn't read it.

:44:25. > :44:31.I read it. You read it? So you read all the stuff about taxi drivers in

:44:32. > :44:37.uniform and repainting the trains. And now you are all dismayed that it

:44:38. > :44:42.has been taken away from you and you have to start again. Anyway, you

:44:43. > :44:54.accept that if you have counsellors in this De mac `` councillors in

:44:55. > :45:01.these places, that affects your politics. People are seeing us in

:45:02. > :45:07.action on the ground domestic Lee. Despite Jeremy Vine's graph, it

:45:08. > :45:13.wasn't another European election, it was domestic first past the post. ``

:45:14. > :45:20.domestic Lee. All this really started to `` domestically. All this

:45:21. > :45:26.changed last year. Suddenly people were able to see that UKIP really is

:45:27. > :45:34.a viable vote in a domestic first past the post system. If you exclude

:45:35. > :45:42.the postal votes. Yes. Let's go to Hull, where our correspondent will

:45:43. > :45:44.tell us the story. Yes, we are awaiting the first formal

:45:45. > :45:50.declarations of results here in Hull. Already, in the counting room

:45:51. > :45:56.next door to where I am standing right now, there are plenty of

:45:57. > :45:59.worried Labour faces. As Labour no they have lost a number of votes and

:46:00. > :46:06.indeed a number of seats to UKIP tonight. `` Labour are aware. A

:46:07. > :46:13.former member who has served as a councillor for the past 26 years has

:46:14. > :46:17.conceded defeat to UKIP. And one senior Labour figure I spoke to a

:46:18. > :46:22.few moments ago suggested that out the 21 being defended here tonight,

:46:23. > :46:31.they can only guarantee that Labour would hold at least two of those

:46:32. > :46:36.seats. It is tempting to think of Hull as a solid Labour city. In

:46:37. > :46:40.terms of the seats held in Parliament, that has always been the

:46:41. > :46:43.case. But you only have to rewind the clock back three years and the

:46:44. > :46:50.Liberal Democrats were in control here. So if you look behind me, all

:46:51. > :46:56.the blurb is plugging the fact that Hull has been named the UK's city of

:46:57. > :47:00.culture. Tonight we could see a change to the political culture. We

:47:01. > :47:04.will come back to you later on. Thank you for that. You can see on

:47:05. > :47:10.the bottom of the screen, a seat held by the Conservative Party.

:47:11. > :47:19.Let's go to the liberal Democrats. Putting the spotlight on them. There

:47:20. > :47:24.are many councils which the Lib Dems are defending tonight. They have

:47:25. > :47:29.suffered really badly in the last few years at the local level. These

:47:30. > :47:36.are places where they will feel that they are strong. Kingston upon

:47:37. > :47:40.Thames has a majority of two. We saw Alex at the count a little earlier

:47:41. > :47:46.and you can see this as a fight between the two parties of

:47:47. > :47:49.government. So really depends. If there is an anti`government vote,

:47:50. > :47:56.who will fall furthest. A majority of two here. The Lib Dems have won

:47:57. > :47:59.it since 2002. This is a key parliamentary strength of their as

:48:00. > :48:05.in south`west London. We heard from the Environment Secretary. That

:48:06. > :48:09.could slip from their grasp. Portsmouth a little bit safer. But

:48:10. > :48:14.that could slip as well. The Lib Dems on 23. News from the chipmaker

:48:15. > :48:20.that they will not be building ships in Portsmouth any more. The party

:48:21. > :48:25.whip resigned he is now standing as an Independent. Will that affect

:48:26. > :48:28.their fortunes? Sutton. An interesting one. It should be much

:48:29. > :48:34.safer, when you look at the majority of 28 should be impossible for them

:48:35. > :48:38.to lose. But in London, they are all out elections. So all the seats

:48:39. > :48:42.could swap hands. And if they are really being punished tonight, and

:48:43. > :48:49.remember this will be the first time Sutton votes since Nick Clegg came

:48:50. > :48:54.PM, that could change hands. This seat cannot mathematically move away

:48:55. > :48:59.from the Lib Dems. It is only being elected in birds. What we are

:49:00. > :49:02.looking at once again, it is funny how our thoughts turn to UKIP. They

:49:03. > :49:11.did very well in the by`election last you. We start to see an

:49:12. > :49:15.incursion there. And if we do, what will that mean for the Lib Dem

:49:16. > :49:18.mantra that they can hold on in places where they are already

:49:19. > :49:23.strong? Thank you very much. Peter Hain Lee, political editor for the

:49:24. > :49:27.BBC South, is in Portsmouth. You heard what Emily were saying about

:49:28. > :49:31.Eastleigh and Portsmouth, do you want to comment on those in terms of

:49:32. > :49:37.the Liberal Democrats and their strengths? I saw Nigel Farage

:49:38. > :49:42.speaking in both Portsmouth and Eastleigh, I say Eastleigh is much

:49:43. > :49:48.more organised for UKIP. They are both Lib Dem strongholds. Here at

:49:49. > :49:51.Portsmouth, it feels like Portsmouth is making an impact already. No

:49:52. > :49:54.results have been declared, but the Labour group leader says it is

:49:55. > :49:59.causing mayhem with their usual predictions. There is a sort of side

:50:00. > :50:02.story with Mike Hancock, the MP for Portsmouth South, who is also a

:50:03. > :50:07.councillor suspended by the Lib Dems. It looks like UKIP might have

:50:08. > :50:12.taken that seat here with a considerable vote. Partly against

:50:13. > :50:15.Mike Hancock. Partly they are picking up protests all over the

:50:16. > :50:21.city. One of the councillors described them as a bit of dad 's

:50:22. > :50:25.Army. But they are making an impact here. Basingstoke is another place

:50:26. > :50:30.where UKIP have been organised. Scandal around Maria Miller seems to

:50:31. > :50:33.have brought out a lot of protest votes. And perhaps for people who

:50:34. > :50:38.might not have voted otherwise. Portsmouth, what is the Liberal them

:50:39. > :50:43.a cracked majority at the moment? Oh, they are very strong here. At

:50:44. > :50:48.the moment on the council, it is more likely, if they have a very bad

:50:49. > :50:53.night, not to go to any overall control. It may be that UKIP don't

:50:54. > :50:59.make enough breakthroughs, even if they get a very strong vote. And it

:51:00. > :51:03.certainly seems to have turned the mathematics of the usual arrangement

:51:04. > :51:07.here completely upside down. We are waiting to see where those ballot

:51:08. > :51:13.papers land. Our fascinating. We will come back to peter shortly.

:51:14. > :51:18.What you want say about this? It has always been a battle between the Lib

:51:19. > :51:22.Dems and the Conservatives in this area. There has been a lot of local

:51:23. > :51:27.controversy over the exit leader who was jailed. I don't know if that

:51:28. > :51:34.will play an integral part in that particular battle. It does set you

:51:35. > :51:37.back a bit, I suppose. Not helpful. What we are looking at tonight in

:51:38. > :51:43.particular are where we have held seats, where we won the councils. So

:51:44. > :51:49.will to see how our strength holds up, we always stay where we work, we

:51:50. > :51:56.win. And these are places where we have one for a long time.

:51:57. > :52:04.Cheltenham, we will be looking where Martin Horlick is the MP. South

:52:05. > :52:10.Lake, these are the kind of things we are looking to see where our

:52:11. > :52:15.strengths are. We are going to lose the. We have about 750 seats. We

:52:16. > :52:21.estimate, the predictions are that we will lose half of those seats. So

:52:22. > :52:29.yes, we will lose seats. The ones you described at the old Liberal

:52:30. > :52:35.Democrat, or liberal indeed, areas. While not looking back that far, but

:52:36. > :52:42.those are the sort of seats, where we have MPs and where we work, we do

:52:43. > :52:48.that. We are mounting in strength right across the country. We are a

:52:49. > :52:52.long way from anything like UKIP Tomic we started in those places.

:52:53. > :52:56.How much have you been damaged eye being in coalition for four years?

:52:57. > :53:02.Oh, pretty much. I remember when we first went into coalition, some of

:53:03. > :53:07.our European colleagues came over to tell us what it was like to be a

:53:08. > :53:12.third party in the coalition. Second party, not the third party. Yes,

:53:13. > :53:17.absolutely right. Maybe it just feels like it. The smaller party.

:53:18. > :53:21.But if you look back at the choice the country gave us, which was

:53:22. > :53:27.coalition with the Conservatives or a minority government that almost

:53:28. > :53:32.certainly would have fallen, and you look back 2010 when the economy on

:53:33. > :53:37.the brink and the markets were nervous, and staving off crisis was

:53:38. > :53:43.the important thing. We did what was right for the country but it hasn't

:53:44. > :53:47.been brilliant for us. They may end up with fewer councillors than they

:53:48. > :53:52.had in the entire history of the Liberal Democrats. Not quite that

:53:53. > :54:04.gloomy. We will pause from it. It is just after 12:30am. We now have a

:54:05. > :54:07.full round`up of the news. Counting is under way across England in the

:54:08. > :54:11.big test of public opinion before next year 's general election.

:54:12. > :54:14.Results in Sunderland showed a big swing to UKIP, they have just made

:54:15. > :54:17.the first game in Basildon. Counting in local contests in Northern

:54:18. > :54:21.Ireland begins tomorrow. The results of the European elections will be

:54:22. > :54:25.announced on Sunday after polling is finished across the EU. Our

:54:26. > :54:30.political correspondent has the latest. Ballot boxes, voting slips,

:54:31. > :54:43.strong coffees, and yes, eventually, no doubt, the old yawn

:54:44. > :54:45.from those up all night. Election night is on, counting is under way.

:54:46. > :54:48.Tonight is all about elections to 161 councils in England. In Northern

:54:49. > :54:55.Ireland, counting starts late on Friday. It is early days but UKIP

:54:56. > :55:00.seem to be doing well. It looks like the other parties are trying to work

:55:01. > :55:03.out what on earth to do about what they see as the purple peril of

:55:04. > :55:10.Nigel Farage's party. The messages from the party sent out tell their

:55:11. > :55:21.own story. The Prime Minister was not sounding too excited. He sent

:55:22. > :55:23.this e`mail to supporters. Ed Miliband was already trying to look

:55:24. > :55:34.forward. One of the Liberal Democrat MPs told

:55:35. > :55:57.the BBC the following: this is not simply a big protest,

:55:58. > :56:00.but a consistent amount of the Purbeck who are moving to UKIP on a

:56:01. > :56:11.consistent basis. `` the voting public. It tells the public that you

:56:12. > :56:17.are in good company. Voting has been happening in the Netherlands as

:56:18. > :56:19.well, people making their choices in the European Parliament elections,

:56:20. > :56:21.plenty of other countries around the European Union have done their

:56:22. > :56:24.voting in the coming days. `` will do their voting. There will not be

:56:25. > :56:30.any results for who is going to Brussels until Sunday night.

:56:31. > :56:33.You can find out more if you visit the website, including analysis and

:56:34. > :56:43.all of tonight 's results as they come in, that is on the website. The

:56:44. > :56:50.search for four British sailors missing in the mid`Atlantic for

:56:51. > :56:54.almost a week could be called off in just over 24 hours. The west

:56:55. > :56:56.coastguard said they will continue to search through tonight and

:56:57. > :56:59.tomorrow but gave a cut`off point of midnight tomorrow local time if

:57:00. > :57:03.there was no success. The families of the sailors and the British

:57:04. > :57:09.Consulate have been informed. It is only after deepest consideration

:57:10. > :57:16.that we will suspend active search efforts `` US coastguard. We have

:57:17. > :57:21.had no sightings yet, and can conclude that none of the debris or

:57:22. > :57:27.objects located during the search have correlated to the Cheeki

:57:28. > :57:31.force across Thailand after the army force across Thailand after the army

:57:32. > :57:33.staged a coup, the government has been dissolved and the constitution

:57:34. > :57:34.suspended after months of political instability. There has been

:57:35. > :57:39.widespread international condemnation, William Hague is

:57:40. > :57:44.calling for a return to democracy and Washington says the action is

:57:45. > :57:50.unjustifiable. The number of EU citizens moving to the UK increased

:57:51. > :57:51.by 27% in 2013, the office for National Statistics figure is

:57:52. > :57:57.estimated that net migration, that is between the numbers coming into

:57:58. > :58:02.the UK and leaving, remains unchanged. The ONS says that work is

:58:03. > :58:05.the main reason for those wanting to come to the UK. The controversy

:58:06. > :58:10.surrounding cracking is likely to intensify with the publication later

:58:11. > :58:15.today of a government report saying that a potentially huge supply of

:58:16. > :58:19.untapped energy is located beneath the earth in southern England ``

:58:20. > :58:25.fracking. Geological surveys will suggest that there are several

:58:26. > :58:34.billion barrels of oil underneath Essex `` Sussex, Hampshire, and

:58:35. > :58:42.Kent. Now, let's go back to Vote 2014.

:58:43. > :58:49.Let's go back to the election Centre. Let's get some of the latest

:58:50. > :58:53.results, we have not had many in but we have indications. Our first

:58:54. > :59:01.scoreboard end. Labour are at the top, most prizes there, the place is

:59:02. > :59:05.counted so far Labour heartlands. They have gained one councillor,

:59:06. > :59:15.conservatives have lost eight. UKIP have gained two tonight. `` the

:59:16. > :59:20.Conservative party. Let's go in and see those councils, you can see the

:59:21. > :59:25.gains and losses. Let's have a look at what we have here. No gains and

:59:26. > :59:30.no losses. Here are the ones we have had in so far. Sunderland, South

:59:31. > :59:36.Tyneside and Broxbourne. They have stayed in their colours. Let's have

:59:37. > :59:41.a look at Sunderland, it is interesting, I will update it to the

:59:42. > :59:48.new councillor results, I will show it to you now as a percentage share

:59:49. > :59:53.of the vote. It is a curious pattern. Labour have the lion

:59:54. > :59:58.share, UKIP have 24% of the vote. They did not gain a council seat he

:59:59. > :00:02.and Sunderland. They come in second place because of the distribution of

:00:03. > :00:06.the vote, it is much harder for a smaller party to gain those seeds,

:00:07. > :00:12.but it be will an extraordinary thing to look at. `` seats. UKIP are

:00:13. > :00:24.up 24%, they came from a standing start here and have hit both Labour

:00:25. > :00:27.and the Conservatives. Let's have a look at South Tyneside, I will

:00:28. > :00:29.update it and see if there is a similar result. There is that area

:00:30. > :00:35.again. In the north`east, look at the change overnight. It looks like

:00:36. > :00:39.it is a fairly blanket result. If we go inside of South Tyneside, it

:00:40. > :00:44.could have similar patterns and trends emerging to what we saw in

:00:45. > :00:48.Sunderland. Thank you very much, if you get confused, remember, some of

:00:49. > :00:52.these places like Sunderland, we are talking about one third of the seats

:00:53. > :00:54.being voted on. If you see a number that seems far greater than the

:00:55. > :00:59.number of seats we are talking about having been won or lost, that is

:01:00. > :01:05.because two thirds do not have too go to the polls. You wanted to say

:01:06. > :01:11.something, I think. I wanted to pick up on summing that Lynn said

:01:12. > :01:16.earlier, part the debate around UKIP is there policies. `` something.

:01:17. > :01:20.Let's be honest about this, they will do well, probably very well if

:01:21. > :01:25.the next couple of days. As they come out of this, they will rightly

:01:26. > :01:32.be more focused on policies. But, Lynn got something here, we have to

:01:33. > :01:38.have this debate about our values, and connect emotionally on these

:01:39. > :01:42.things. What you see UKIP and Farage doing is setting up different parts

:01:43. > :01:46.of the community, against each other, blaming the other for the

:01:47. > :01:51.problems we have as a country, when it is our responsibility to find

:01:52. > :01:54.solutions to those things. We have to think about what sort of country

:01:55. > :01:57.are we? Are we really a country that wants to turn in on itself when we

:01:58. > :02:04.are facing more competition than ever before from an emerging market

:02:05. > :02:13.economy, that wants to fight each other, rather than working out how

:02:14. > :02:19.Britain can wind in the world? All we proud `` or, are we proud of our

:02:20. > :02:25.country, and building a better Britain for our country? Going into

:02:26. > :02:28.the election, not only will we have the debate around policy but it is

:02:29. > :02:32.about the kind of country that we are. None of that answers the point

:02:33. > :02:37.that she was making, but about the kind of people that you are and the

:02:38. > :02:43.kind of person that Farage is. The point is... If you look at the kind

:02:44. > :02:48.of person... Let's be honest, some of the things that we'd have seen

:02:49. > :02:50.Farage doing and saying have been deeply offensive, I don't know

:02:51. > :02:54.whether the guy is a racist or not, but I think some of the things he

:02:55. > :02:59.has said are racist. There are two sides to people 's as nullity is,

:03:00. > :03:04.there is one part that is people change and worried about the

:03:05. > :03:12.future, but one that is hopeful about the future `` people 's

:03:13. > :03:18.personalities. What something is being said about Eastern European by

:03:19. > :03:21.the party members, it is not different about what people have

:03:22. > :03:27.said about my father. Back in the 1960s. We had to have this debate

:03:28. > :03:33.about values. I will come back to you in a second about this, I would

:03:34. > :03:50.like to speak to one of those who wants to see... INAUDIBLE. There was

:03:51. > :03:58.some muddle their! I am hoping to be joined by the Conservative MP for

:03:59. > :04:03.north`east Somerset. ``there. You have heard already tonight, that as

:04:04. > :04:07.a result of UKIP 's advance, the Conservatives have to do some kind

:04:08. > :04:10.of deal. You are one of those conservatives who believe that?

:04:11. > :04:16.Well, if you look at the results that are coming through, the small

:04:17. > :04:22.conservative faction in British politics is picking up a large share

:04:23. > :04:28.of votes. If they do not get those votes into one pot, then both sides

:04:29. > :04:32.end up losing. What kind of deal... What do you have in mind as a deal

:04:33. > :04:37.that could benefit the Conservatives? The first is to win

:04:38. > :04:44.our friends in UKIP back, I was concerned about the poll that you

:04:45. > :04:48.were quoting earlier. It said that fewer Conservative voters were

:04:49. > :04:52.thinking of coming back from UKIP to the Conservatives than in previous

:04:53. > :04:55.European elections. That is obviously a major issue for the

:04:56. > :04:59.Conservative party, how we get people who have voted UKIP today to

:05:00. > :05:03.vote for the Conservatives party in the general election next year,

:05:04. > :05:07.because if we do not get them back, we will find that we will lose seats

:05:08. > :05:16.that have a small seed Conservative majority. It is a challenge for the

:05:17. > :05:20.party. It is an obvious challenge, if I could say so, what about the

:05:21. > :05:23.other idea that you could have a pact or agreement, the sort of thing

:05:24. > :05:32.that Douglas Carswell is thinking about, we will stay away if you are

:05:33. > :05:38.treading on our toes... ? I think with the promise of the referendum,

:05:39. > :05:42.the Conservative party and UKIP are moving in exactly the same

:05:43. > :05:46.direction, that it is offering the British people a final decision on

:05:47. > :05:50.whether we have continued membership of the European Union. That, surely,

:05:51. > :05:58.pushes towards a coupon of some kind. Grant Shapps is listening, he

:05:59. > :06:03.is all ears to this in the studio. In any one constituency, you would

:06:04. > :06:08.either, in European, have a Conservative candidate committed to

:06:09. > :06:12.a referendum, but if there was a UKIP candidate, Conservatives would

:06:13. > :06:16.back off if they thought the opposition had a better chance of

:06:17. > :06:18.winning? What happened in the coupon election between the Lloyd George

:06:19. > :06:24.Liberals and the Conservatives was that the respective party leaders

:06:25. > :06:28.said that they felt that in a particular seat, it was sufficiently

:06:29. > :06:33.in support of the coalition between the two parties, and that was the

:06:34. > :06:38.right person to support. That did not mean that all Conservatives, or

:06:39. > :06:43.all liberals, have the same coupon. There is a good deal of flexibility

:06:44. > :07:01.with how this could be done `` all Lib Dems. This teasing of Jacob! Let

:07:02. > :07:07.me clear this up straightaway. We are not going to have any pacts it

:07:08. > :07:10.cannot happen anyway. It cannot happen on a technical basis, we do

:07:11. > :07:16.not allow joint candidates to stand. When no other party... No other

:07:17. > :07:19.party would have joint candidates. He is talking about one party or the

:07:20. > :07:23.other making an agreement. I understood the discussion but it

:07:24. > :07:29.will not happen. That is all I am saying. Why not? We are the best

:07:30. > :07:34.chance of offering an in and out referendum, the only chance of

:07:35. > :07:39.adding an in and out referendum, with 326 members of parliament

:07:40. > :07:43.needed to pass the act to get the referendum, currently UKIP have none

:07:44. > :07:52.and we have 304, we are the best opportunity to get that. You would

:07:53. > :07:57.do that even with the result that you let Labour in because you are

:07:58. > :08:06.losing people. We would be going for an outright majority. Can Jacob come

:08:07. > :08:13.back? Say another word in your chairman's year. Well, I think there

:08:14. > :08:19.are many members of UKIP who are close to the Conservative Party. ``

:08:20. > :08:24.your chairman is here. If we fight each other, we end up being very

:08:25. > :08:31.destructive to the aims of what you might call small c conservatism. It

:08:32. > :08:37.would potentially allow the Labour Party to win. We have to sort out in

:08:38. > :08:40.the next year how we bring our votes together. Obviously, it would be

:08:41. > :08:47.preferable if all members of UKIP and UKIP voters became Tories

:08:48. > :08:50.overnight. That seems to me to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we

:08:51. > :08:54.need to do something which welcomes them on board in a slightly

:08:55. > :09:01.different way. Do you want to comment on this? Do you think what

:09:02. > :09:09.he is saying has traction in the party? It may not have that much

:09:10. > :09:13.traction in Parliament, but the difficulty for the chairman of the

:09:14. > :09:17.Conservative Party, is that it will have an enormous amount of traction

:09:18. > :09:21.amongst Conservative activists. They'll sit back, saying these are

:09:22. > :09:25.our people. We remember and know these people. They used to be

:09:26. > :09:31.Conservatives themselves, and they don't want to fight them. They would

:09:32. > :09:34.have discovered that they agree on a great deal. So many ordinary

:09:35. > :09:44.Conservatives will be wondering why they can't get together with these

:09:45. > :09:48.guys in order to take on the Labour Party. That is the danger I think,

:09:49. > :09:53.for the Tory leadership, because there are an activists say they are

:09:54. > :10:00.not taking them in the direction they want to go. If you had your

:10:01. > :10:04.way, the Conservatives would run a candidate regardless. They would do

:10:05. > :10:09.exactly what Jacob was trying to avoid, which was splitting the vote.

:10:10. > :10:16.We are rather jumping ahead to Sunday night's debate. No party has

:10:17. > :10:21.ever delivered as much as this party has on Europe. The coalition has got

:10:22. > :10:27.us out of an ?8 billion bailout which would have cost us a fortune.

:10:28. > :10:30.Saving $8.2 ?8.2 billion, we have vetoed the European Treaty, passed

:10:31. > :10:35.the law that no powers can go without referendum. So if they want

:10:36. > :10:39.a renegotiation with Europe, the only way to get there is to vote

:10:40. > :10:44.Conservative. There is no other mathematical equation. The striking

:10:45. > :10:48.thing is that all these things, the speech on Europe which the Prime

:10:49. > :10:52.Minister gave, the promise of a referendum, apparently, early days

:10:53. > :10:56.and all that. Apparently it made no difference in terms of persuading

:10:57. > :11:01.UKIP voters to switch. Have you been hearing all this? Certainly have.

:11:02. > :11:12.What do you make of this generous offer to have a packed with UKIP?

:11:13. > :11:22.Would UKIP Laikert? `` pact. I am sorry, but it is all too late. ``

:11:23. > :11:27.like it. We were seen as just an irritant to the Conservatives for

:11:28. > :11:30.some years, they now discover we represent an increasing percentage

:11:31. > :11:35.of their core vote which they have taken for granted for many years. So

:11:36. > :11:38.they are calling us names and inventing ludicrous manifestoes and

:11:39. > :11:43.describing them to us. The Conservatives have now suddenly

:11:44. > :11:48.decided that we are just naughty ex` Conservatives which have to sit on

:11:49. > :11:52.the naughty step for a bit. This is ridiculous. We have been going for

:11:53. > :11:56.20 years and have steady progress and are now in a position where, as

:11:57. > :12:00.you can see from the early results tonight and what has been happening

:12:01. > :12:06.over the past 12 months, UKIP is really resonating with the voting

:12:07. > :12:09.public in this country. It is not an accident. We have been telling it

:12:10. > :12:16.like it is and not playing these silly games about who is going to do

:12:17. > :12:21.pacts with her. We are here to stay and you have to get used to it. If

:12:22. > :12:27.you found that the result of your state was to split the small c

:12:28. > :12:35.conservative vote and let Labour in, that would be something you could

:12:36. > :12:37.live with? We are an independent political party with our own Stanz

:12:38. > :12:47.and manifesto which we are working on. It has not been incidentally

:12:48. > :12:53.just invented. `` our own stance. That small c conservatism

:12:54. > :12:57.numbers of people who vote for us now who are lifelong Labour voters,

:12:58. > :13:02.who would never dream of voting Conservative. So we are not here

:13:03. > :13:08.just to be bought and sold. We represent an increasing number of

:13:09. > :13:09.people in this country. Jacob, listing to all that, it sounds as

:13:10. > :13:15.though your idea has fallen rather stony ground. Well, if you

:13:16. > :13:18.remember what was being said about joint action before the last

:13:19. > :13:23.election, between the Conservatives and the lead dams, it is one of the

:13:24. > :13:27.realities of politics that nobody announces they want to do a deal

:13:28. > :13:33.until they announce the deal has been done. It is like the government

:13:34. > :13:37.and the Bank of England. So I don't lose hope that the Conservative

:13:38. > :13:42.Party and UKIP can come together to ensure that what we all want is

:13:43. > :13:46.achieved. Obviously that is best achieved in a first past the post

:13:47. > :13:54.system if we are not opposing each other. It sounds as though it will

:13:55. > :14:03.be fisticuffs between you. Well, we did suggest that we should love bomb

:14:04. > :14:08.UKIP. I much prefer that as they are... Well you love bombed the

:14:09. > :14:14.Liberal Democrats and you pretty much decimated them. Excuse me, we

:14:15. > :14:19.may be down, but we are not out. We are getting a kicking for being in

:14:20. > :14:27.the coalition right now. And despite being love bombed. But what I wanted

:14:28. > :14:31.to say is that this whole mess of an in and out referendum is that the

:14:32. > :14:39.Conservative Party tried to appease the agenda that was put out. Because

:14:40. > :14:42.of UKIP's popularity, in terms of an in and out referendum. They forgot

:14:43. > :14:49.that the coalition actually legislated in the last term for a

:14:50. > :14:54.referendum if power has changed. We abandoned that and went after UKIP.

:14:55. > :15:01.That is betwixt and between. Let me come in. We are in danger of

:15:02. > :15:05.focusing on Europe rather than the local elections. But it is worth

:15:06. > :15:12.saying that the Conservative Party's view on Europe, our approach

:15:13. > :15:16.to the referendum is mainstream British views on Europe. Most people

:15:17. > :15:21.thought we went into a common market, we have gone into much more.

:15:22. > :15:25.Most people want a renegotiation and a referendum. It is unfair to the

:15:26. > :15:30.two major parties in Westminster. The only way to get it will be a

:15:31. > :15:34.conservative vote. It is a fantasy position, because it is basically

:15:35. > :15:38.based on a renegotiation which the Conservative Party does not want to

:15:39. > :15:43.consider. And I didn't interrupt you... Let me finish my sentence. I

:15:44. > :15:48.don't know what the outcome will be if they can secure it. And they

:15:49. > :15:53.think they will do it in a French residential year. Can I just say one

:15:54. > :15:59.thing... Actually, I am going to help you out here. Where he is

:16:00. > :16:06.wrong, and to some extent I think the UKIP chair is right, is that he

:16:07. > :16:13.is presupposing that the main reason that people are going to vote for

:16:14. > :16:20.UKIP is purely the EU. Now Lynn is right on that. You can't out UKIP

:16:21. > :16:25.UKIP. No matter how you try it, it doesn't work. People are voting for

:16:26. > :16:30.a range of different reasons. As I said, what will not be sustainable

:16:31. > :16:36.is to do what the UKIP chair has just done and basically said well,

:16:37. > :16:41.anything that our leader or our Deputy Leader comes out with should

:16:42. > :16:44.be disregarded in respect to policy. Because whatever people may feel,

:16:45. > :16:46.and obviously UKIP will do very well over the next few days, they are

:16:47. > :16:50.going to want to know, particularly after the European election, what

:16:51. > :16:56.are your policies? On that note, let's have a look at policy with

:16:57. > :17:04.Jeremy. But first, a bit of news. Yes, the Tory MP in Swindon has just

:17:05. > :17:08.tweeted that they have gained a seat. The Tories are short I won in

:17:09. > :17:13.that council. It sounds like, depending on what the other results

:17:14. > :17:17.do, the Tories may gain control of Swindon. It is one of the seats we

:17:18. > :17:19.will look at because of their Parliamentary significance. Two

:17:20. > :17:23.Parliamentary MPs. Small majorities for a general election, and

:17:24. > :17:26.therefore, no doubt conservative H Q will be telling us Labour is not

:17:27. > :17:31.doing well enough. That two results from Hull, very similar to

:17:32. > :17:34.Sunderland. UKIP winning 28% of the vote in both cases. It looks as

:17:35. > :17:38.though one of the principal consequences of today's voting, or

:17:39. > :17:44.should say yesterday was making voting, as it is nearly 1am.

:17:45. > :17:50.Yesterday's voting is this very strong push by UKIP. We will have

:17:51. > :17:52.much more of that later on. Let us go to Jeremy to talk about the

:17:53. > :17:57.issues. People here were talking about whether the issue is getting

:17:58. > :18:02.out of Europe or not and how people are voting. Yes, we have mentioned a

:18:03. > :18:07.lot about Europe in your discussion. Come with me into our virtual

:18:08. > :18:12.parliament, the Central lobby in Westminster. We will look beyond the

:18:13. > :18:16.European issues at some of the other things which are on voters minds.

:18:17. > :18:20.Let's look at the polls. First of all, economic confidence. Usually,

:18:21. > :18:26.when you talk about voting intentions, it is all lasered in on

:18:27. > :18:30.the economy. It is the economy, stupid, as they always say. So going

:18:31. > :18:36.back two years, that I see the ratings. On economic confidence. Two

:18:37. > :18:40.questions were asked Tom are you feeling good about the UK's

:18:41. > :18:46.prospects, and are you feeling good about your own? At the beginning of

:18:47. > :18:50.the graph, we are still in the backwash of the recession. As the

:18:51. > :18:55.graph progresses, it you see the household Hosp Becks improved.

:18:56. > :18:59.People generally thinking it is not reaching me, this recovery. `` the

:19:00. > :19:05.household prospects. You see improved personal prospect a little,

:19:06. > :19:09.sense the UK is coming out of the financial crisis. Talking about

:19:10. > :19:15.Europe, but as we know, the economy is very important in terms of voting

:19:16. > :19:21.intentions. That is one of the key graphs as we go into one of this

:19:22. > :19:30.year long run`up 's to the general election. Looking at this. This asks

:19:31. > :19:37.how the coalition is managing the economy. Two years ago they were

:19:38. > :19:40.seen as managing it badly, well outnumbering those who bought they

:19:41. > :19:50.were managing it well. A lot of people thinking they had not got the

:19:51. > :19:53.right answers at all. But watch the progression as gradually you see

:19:54. > :19:56.growth coming back. Unemployment comes down a little and the people

:19:57. > :19:59.who say it at the coalition doing badly in managing the economy are

:20:00. > :20:03.becoming less sure of themselves. That line goes down. More and more

:20:04. > :20:07.people say the economy is being managed well by the government.

:20:08. > :20:12.Again, that economic graph is absolutely crucial to the foundation

:20:13. > :20:18.of voter intentions. So look at that, very dramatic. That is what

:20:19. > :20:22.happens when the economy recovers. But something else happens as well.

:20:23. > :20:24.Have a look at our next graph and I will show you what it is. Gradually,

:20:25. > :20:28.as the economy stabilises, the People's perceptions of which are

:20:29. > :20:32.the important issues changes. So go back to May 2010, and the

:20:33. > :20:37.coalition's win in the election. Remember the terrible state. Just

:20:38. > :20:41.coming off the financial crisis. The overwhelming majority of people say

:20:42. > :20:46.the economy is the number one issue. Immigration and the NHS down there.

:20:47. > :20:49.As the economy settles down and things look right for more people,

:20:50. > :20:54.you see this line gradually, as fewer people are concerned about the

:20:55. > :20:59.economy, fewer people put it is number one. If you go back to the

:21:00. > :21:05.boom years of the 2000 is, the economy was way down the list of

:21:06. > :21:09.people's concerns. You can see in the present, immigration is touching

:21:10. > :21:19.the economy, vying with it for first place. `` the 2000s. That is where

:21:20. > :21:23.UKIP are getting many of their votes. Immigration, traditionally

:21:24. > :21:28.good for Labour. In first base, still the economy is the key issue.

:21:29. > :21:32.At the economy has improved, voters have set it to one side to one

:21:33. > :21:37.extent and started looking at other things. So some other issues that we

:21:38. > :21:43.will be looking at, David. Back to you. Are very fascinating story

:21:44. > :21:55.coming out of Portsmouth. It applies to what we were saying here. Tell us

:21:56. > :21:58.the story. We were talking to the group leader of the Conservatives

:21:59. > :22:03.and there is a charge the Lib Dems could be pushed into control. She

:22:04. > :22:08.said that she would work with Labour Party and then she said that if UKIP

:22:09. > :22:12.gets seats, she would want to offer them something to get them on board.

:22:13. > :22:19.Possibly a place in the Cabinet of the Portsmouth City Council. If the

:22:20. > :22:23.Labour Party and Conservatives and UKIP together get rid of the Lib

:22:24. > :22:27.Dems, she said it is something they will work towards. I can't spoken

:22:28. > :22:32.with other conservatives who have said that she has to get that past

:22:33. > :22:35.more people within the party. She is certainly keen that if there is a

:22:36. > :22:42.chance of removing the Lib Dems, UKIP could be an ally. She has the

:22:43. > :22:45.instinct to use UKIP against the Labour Party and the Lib Dems in

:22:46. > :22:51.this case. Would you approve of that? Do you want to get on the

:22:52. > :22:56.phone and say, don't you dare. On a local basis it has been up to the

:22:57. > :23:03.parties and councils locally to decide who nationally, `` who to

:23:04. > :23:08.work with. We won't put limitations on working with other parties. It is

:23:09. > :23:13.still an interesting development. Results are coming in from London.

:23:14. > :23:18.The whole borough in each case is being elected. Let's go to various

:23:19. > :23:23.places in London and see what the story is. Sonia Jester is our

:23:24. > :23:31.correspondent in Hammersmith, west London, conservatively held. What is

:23:32. > :23:35.the story? It is a battle between the Labour Party and the Tories.

:23:36. > :23:42.Hammersmith and Fulham are controlled by the Conservatives. It

:23:43. > :23:46.has been since 2006. Before that, this was the Labour Party,

:23:47. > :23:52.working`class borough. What we have seen is huge change. Different types

:23:53. > :23:56.of people moving into the borough, wealthy, traditional Tory voters

:23:57. > :23:59.moving into the leafy south of the borough, living out of places like

:24:00. > :24:03.Kensington and Chelsea as house prices rise. The question is, will

:24:04. > :24:09.be Conservatives consolidate their control? Perhaps, driven by high

:24:10. > :24:15.house prices and lower council tax. Or, will Labour regain control?

:24:16. > :24:24.White we go to Brent. Solidly labour. Sarah Teva, the LibDem MP

:24:25. > :24:32.stands down. How will this affect Brent? That is a big factor in these

:24:33. > :24:38.local elections. Labour made big gains in 2010 and took seats from

:24:39. > :24:45.the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. On the same day, they lost the

:24:46. > :24:49.parliamentary seat of Brand, central to the LibDem Sarah Teva who as we

:24:50. > :24:55.know it will stand down in next year's general election. There are a

:24:56. > :25:00.lot of wafer thin majority is here in Brent, so Labour hope they will

:25:01. > :25:05.be able to hold onto their 40 out of 63 councillors. They also want to

:25:06. > :25:12.see some gains. Speaking with candidates, the Labour group leader

:25:13. > :25:17.said that maybe two or three new labour councillors elected would

:25:18. > :25:20.make them very happy. That's because they want to build up the base of

:25:21. > :25:25.support ahead of next year 's general election to help them to

:25:26. > :25:32.victory to win back the seat from the LibDem. This is the Civic Centre

:25:33. > :25:36.and we are in the shadow of Wembley stadium over my shoulder. No famous

:25:37. > :25:46.footballers have been sniffing around. Thank you. We will come back

:25:47. > :25:55.as you get some results in. We are joined by Linda Jack, who is in

:25:56. > :26:01.power at Westminster studio. `` our. She is in the European elections and

:26:02. > :26:06.chairs the liberal left. What is happening to the Lib Dems insofar as

:26:07. > :26:21.you have been able to discern tonight

:26:22. > :26:25.people expect. The lack of trust, we have lost because of the coalition

:26:26. > :26:30.frankly, and that is where we need to think about where to go next in

:26:31. > :26:36.terms of strategy. We need to rebuild confidence in the party. How

:26:37. > :26:39.do you do that? It is said that you saved the country by going into a

:26:40. > 3:58:49coalition. That is an area where we disagree.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49our values. If we had stuck to the coalition agreement it mightn't have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49been bad, but we didn't. What will you do now? We don't need to lose

3:58:50 > 3:58:49our leader. The leader just needs to take a different direction. Everyone

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is talking about when we come out and we have been speaking about this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49since going into a coalition. I can't see we can stay in a coalition

3:58:50 > 3:58:49until the moment of the next election and have that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49differentiation that we so desperately need, showing that we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are not Tories. What will you do? Leave tomorrow or next week? I would

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have left a long time ago. It would need to be planned, obviously, but

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the sooner we can get out the better, as far as I am concerned.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Won't you look feeble, led by Nick Clegg in the Rose garden, we can

3:58:50 > 3:58:49work together and save the country, and then you up sticks after a year

3:58:50 > 3:58:49or two and leave. It isn't. It is now four years. You said you would

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have left long ago. I wouldn't have gone into a coalition in the first

3:58:50 > 3:58:49place. The issue is for me, values. I applaud some of the work of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ministers, on issues such as FGM and equal marriage. Norman Lamb has done

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a fantastic job in health. What I worry about is that we have gone

3:58:50 > 3:58:49along with a lot of things we didn't need to. The reorganisation of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49NHS and the bedroom tax. That flies in the face of what we say we are at

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a party and that is why it is confusing for people. What do you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49stand for? What will happen if Nick Clegg doesn't pull out. Andy, you go

3:58:50 > 3:58:49into the next election as a coalition until election day comes

3:58:50 > 3:58:49along? What will happen to the Lib Dems? We are a resilient party and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49we will still be here. I think we will be badly damaged. Do you have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49any reassurances to offer? I do. I am an optimist. I love Linda. That's

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not relevant. We are a party that believes in coalition government. I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49think it is a better form of government. I think single

3:58:50 > 3:58:49government elected by 35% of the country is terrible. You can make

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the law because, I say so. It isn't forged in steel. There is nothing in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49common between ourselves and the Conservatives. So, the fight to get

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a policy and the balance between a stronger economy and a fairer

3:58:50 > 3:58:49society is what the Lib Dems are into. We have proved the point. Just

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a minute. I am fed up with the Conservatives getting the credit for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the turning around of the economy when the Lib Dems have just as much

3:58:50 > 3:58:49involvement. We have done a lot of good things in government and you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49don't go into politics not to go into coalition if you are a party

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that believes in coalition and where the country has delivered the party

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with the most seats at the most votes as the first people you speak

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to and the alternative, which, Linda, you would have preferred, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour Party, didn't have enough votes. Linda is focusing on what you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have done in government. That process of going into government was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the problem. It led to you breaking promises. It wasn't only tuition

3:58:50 > 3:58:49fees, which many focused on. The central economic plan you signed up

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to, the deficit reduction plan, was different from that which you can

3:58:50 > 3:58:49then on. The problem Nick Clegg has is that he changed his mind of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49need for deficit reduction `` campaigned on. His documentary

3:58:50 > 3:58:49exposed this. It was several weeks before the general election, but he

3:58:50 > 3:58:49didn't tell anyone. 16,000 voted Lib Dems in my constituency and, had

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they known that, thousands of people would have made a different

3:58:50 > 3:58:49decision. That is the problem. It wasn't based on what Nick was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49thinking. It was based on the coalition agreement. He spoke of it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in his documentary . The interesting thing we have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49heard from the LibDem Linda is that many Lib Dems think they are staring

3:58:50 > 3:58:49at the sky, looking at the blade of the guillotine coming down rapidly,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and they are surprised why the leadership don't take their head off

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the block by leaving the coalition. Linda needs to recognise that this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49was recognised by 2500 Lib Dems at the conference. I want to bring in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49John Curtis so we can direct our attention to the Labour Party. What

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is the position of the Labour Party? We have heard about the woes of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49coalition partners. This isn't proving to be a good night for the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour Party. We were told early on we would see signs of labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49progress. If you look at the wards in which Labour fought, back in

3:58:50 > 3:58:492010, they are down slightly on average. In comparison with 2012,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Labour Party's vote is so far down by as much as 15 points. That

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is competitive 2012. While it might be that UKIP are causing

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative trouble, the truth is that it isn't looking good for the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour Party. We have seen the example of Swindon, where the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative have made again and if that is typical, one of the councils

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that we confidently expected on the basis of a modest Labour Party

3:58:50 > 3:58:49leading the polls, but the Tories would lose, that target might

3:58:50 > 3:58:49missed. Explained the significance of 2012 as opposed to 2010. The last

3:58:50 > 3:58:49time the councils at elections was two years ago. Any opposition would

3:58:50 > 3:58:49want to be able to demonstrate that a year from a general election, it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is still commanding the votes of the public as successfully as it were in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the mid`term of the Parliament. Truthfully, it is clear the Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Party isn't winning votes in these elections on anything like the scale

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it did in 2012. Therefore, it raises questions, which have been there

3:58:50 > 3:58:49throughout the Parliament about the degree to which those who say they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will vote for the Labour Party aren't committed enough to the party

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that they will see it through to 2015. On the basis of tonight, it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49looks as though a significant portion of people who are willing to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49vote for Labour party two years ago have withdraw their support. It is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49difficult to say who is suffering from the UKIP rise. Whether or not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Conservatives are suffering more than the Labour Party it is too

3:58:50 > 3:58:49difficult to tell. There was too much of a simplistic assumption that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49all people who voted for UKIP have come from the Tories. It isn't the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49case. According to the polls, 30 `40% of current UKIP supporters are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ex` Conservatives. It is true that Conservatives are more likely to go

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to UKIP than labour voters, but according to the polls, there is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49proportion of labour voters, those who voted in 2010, who now back

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP. Sweden has been held by the Conservatives. Do you accept what

3:58:50 > 3:58:49John Curtis has said. You can talk to him. You would accept we haven't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49got that many results. We have many more to come. We have got to be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49sorted from Birmingham. You accept we have a lot of votes to go. Would

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I deny that UKIP is impacting us? I of course I won't deny they are. ``

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of course. It is impacting everyone. The other thing I would be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49interested to get your take on is, if you look at London for example,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49we had a different turnout from 2010, which impacted the vote. What

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is your reading of the impact of having the Europeans elections as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the same date `` on the same day as the locals, which gives a huge

3:58:50 > 3:58:49amount of media coverage and exposure to UKIP which they didn't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49previously have. If you take the 2004 and the 2009 elections which

3:58:50 > 3:58:49were the same day there is no doubt that holding the elections on the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49same enabled UKIP to do better than they otherwise would have done.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Before last year, those were the best UKIP performances. Bear in mind

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that what we have seen so far, for example in Basildon, where they did

3:58:50 > 3:58:49well last year, getting a third of the vote, UKIP advancing even

3:58:50 > 3:58:49further. Don't underestimate the scale of their advance. I don't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49think anyone will underestimate how well they will do. They will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49obviously do very well. The question is what it means for the general

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election. It poses a challenge for all the parties. (CROSSTALK). Let's

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hear from Graham Stringer, who joins us from Salford. Labour MP in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Manchester. I hope you were able to hear what John Curtis was saying

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about the slippage in the support for the Labour Party from 2012. He

3:58:50 > 3:58:49said this would be worrying for the Labour Party. Are you worried? Yes.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I have been out in Manchester and Salford. Two things appear to be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49happening. The antilabour vote has consolidated around UKIP. But they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are also taking the vote. That is worrying. Ed Miliband has just said

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that the general election campaign starts here. I am afraid, really,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that the general election campaign started at the start of this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49campaign and we have not done as well as we should have done. What is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it that you fault in the presentation? Is it your party

3:58:50 > 3:58:49leader or is it something else? It is the policies. The elections are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49going against the background of the European elections. We do not trust

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you to vote in a referendum where 80% of the electorate want one. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49campaign itself has not been professional. Centrepiece of our

3:58:50 > 3:58:49campaign has been the cost of living. And yet, Ed Miliband did not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49know his own cost of living. He was spending on shopping. People around

3:58:50 > 3:58:49him should have said when David Cameron was being attacked as a posh

3:58:50 > 3:58:49boy and not knowing the price of milk that we should not fall into

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that trap. That sort of thing is unprofessional. Is that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49unprofessional for Ed Miliband organising the campaign? I think the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49organisation of the campaign, people you do not see in the office, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people have not performed as well as they should have. You would like to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49see Labour come out for a referendum? Absolutely. It is a real

3:58:50 > 3:58:49trust issue. People do not knock on doors. It is not the first thing on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49their minds. But for those people watching politics and thinking about

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it, the fact that we will not give them a referendum becomes another

3:58:50 > 3:58:49trust issue, a real reason why people are turned off by the current

3:58:50 > 3:58:49political parties. When the next reason is given for not hitting a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49referendum is that we have other things to do in government, it looks

3:58:50 > 3:58:49as though we want to do things that we do not want the electorate to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49give us the power to do. Would you like to see a referendum willy`nilly

3:58:50 > 3:58:49or in conservative times if you are in a position to offer it. Would you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49like to say like UKIP, we would like to give you a referendum? I think

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the rest is a bit of an illusion. We are not going to renegotiate all of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the treaties. David Cameron is trying to pull the same kind that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they did in 1975. We need to give people a choice on whether we stay

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in the European Union come out. A lot of powers have been transferred

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to Brussels. The British people have not had a say in that.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to Brussels. The British people have not had a say in Would that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49transform Labour back's fortunes. I do not think it would. I respect

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Graham, but I disagree with him. I have been in various different

3:58:50 > 3:58:49locations all over the country. I was in Norwich just this week.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Nobody based the issue of a referendum with me. They talked

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about prospects for their children, whether they would go on and do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49better than their parents. Just a moment. I disagree with him. It is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not that disagree with him, you do secreting with the voters that he

3:58:50 > 3:58:49speaks too. `` are disagreeing. People are not coming to the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doorstep and asking questions straight off. But when you talk to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49them for a bit longer, particularly people more interested and thinking

3:58:50 > 3:58:49deeply about where they vote, it does become an issue of trust. That

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is why people are disillusioned with politics. People are concerned, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49biggest concern is about immigration and jobs and education. Those are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the biggest concerns. We have not been very clear in presentation of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49some of our policies. We keep leaving the field of battle. We used

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to be excellent at rebuttal. But now we often do not bother at all. That

3:58:50 > 3:58:49sounds pretty grizzly. I do not agree with that. Our European policy

3:58:50 > 3:58:49when we unveiled in February, the idea that there was not rebuttal and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49support around the announcement of the policy, which was not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49necessarily a populist desertion, is not right. If you go back before

3:58:50 > 3:58:49then to when the energy price freeze was announced, we were attacked by

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people on the energy industry. . Do not think it is that you say we did

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not follow through. Have a look at what Jeremy can tell you about Ed

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Miliband's popularity. Just some grass for you. Let us have a look at

3:58:50 > 3:58:49some measures of how the leaders are doing. That was the conversation we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are having in the studio. We have general satisfaction of leaders.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49This is about everyone. Much of it must `` a muchness. Nigel Farage is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49coming on top. You will see that they group quite closely. This is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49when you ask everybody who is doing best. Nigel Farage is doing very

3:58:50 > 3:58:49well. David Cameron is second place and Ed Miliband and click lower

3:58:50 > 3:58:49down. `` Nick Clegg. You would tend to see quite a few people not sure

3:58:50 > 3:58:49who they are satisfied with. We will change the question. Now you see

3:58:50 > 3:58:49something more interesting. We will change to satisfaction among your

3:58:50 > 3:58:49own supporters. We are looking at whether labour supporters think Ed

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Miliband is doing well, Conservative supporters with David Cameron and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49some `` so on. This is just back a year. Nigel Farage is through the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49roof. David Cameron is doing very well as well. Quite a drop of 40 get

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to Ed Miliband. `` before. Then you see Ed Miliband falling behind Nick

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Clegg. They are struggling in this craft. At some point Nick `` Nigel

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Farage is up to 94%. On to the end of the craft. Where are we? ``

3:58:50 > 3:58:49graph. As I said, a big drop before you get to Nick Clegg and Ed

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Miliband. They are disappointing a lot of their own supporters. Is that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49going to be fatal to Ed Miliband? Let us look at ratings for leaders

3:58:50 > 3:58:49when you out from an election. Here we have Tony Blair one year before

3:58:50 > 3:58:49he won in 1997. 56%. That was his satisfaction rating overall. William

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Hague before the 2001 election, 18%, did not become Prime Minister. 31%

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for Howard, Michael Howard. Not become Michael Howard, the Prime

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Minister. Where is Ed Miliband. Have a look. 24%. If you judge it by

3:58:50 > 3:58:49this, that is a troubling figure. Is there anything we can say in some

3:58:50 > 3:58:49way that ameliorate this? Have a look at this for just a moment. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will complete the same question slightly rephrased. Here are the two

3:58:50 > 3:58:49columns. Ed Miliband is struggling. But when that very same question was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49asked in 1979, the two people it is being asked about work James

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Callaghan and the Leader of the Opposition and look what happened.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49It is possible to be lagging in those personal ratings and go on and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49become Prime Minister. At the moment Ed Miliband's ratings are so low in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49some of these scores that it is definitely it cause for concern. I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will come back to you for a moment. You seem to be saying and those

3:58:50 > 3:58:49figures seem to endorse it that somehow Ed Miliband is it out of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49touch. I am saying, I do not know whether you know how much milk

3:58:50 > 3:58:49costs, but in the middle of a campaign if that is a central issue

3:58:50 > 3:58:49then you should find out about it. That is a professional mistake. You

3:58:50 > 3:58:49can't argue with the figures that you have just presented. The Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Party should try and present that there is a problem and deal with the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49problem by having a stronger campaign to rally the leader. To

3:58:50 > 3:58:49protect him from the people? To share the burden. That is how I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49would put it. To be clear on the message. How can they make somebody

3:58:50 > 3:58:49who is as he is and comes from the background that he does, Hamstead in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49north London and an intellectual, how can they turn him into the kind

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of person that the people you meet on the doorstep will go for. I do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not think you can. The Conservative party did not turn to Margaret

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Thatcher into the person she was. To do some of the heavy lifting in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49campaign, that is what they need to do. Ed Miliband has not have an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immediate appeal to the electorate. The Labour Party has to work harder

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on getting its policies across to the people. You are pretty well

3:58:50 > 3:58:49formed. You are not going to change who you. We have to approach it in a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49way. We will go to our political editor in Swindon. The story in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Swindon seems to suggest labour is having some difficulty? If this is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the case, Labour have some soul`searching to do. In Swindon

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they have gone backwards. In 2010, two Labour MPs lost their seats. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives got both parliamentary seats. They want to win these seats

3:58:50 > 3:58:49back. Tonight they lost to the Tories. The Conservatives started

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the evening with a one seat majority. It is all finished. People

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are packing up and about to go home. The Conservatives have a majority of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49three. One of the really interesting point is, who are they losing to? A

3:58:50 > 3:58:49lot of people are saying that Labour lost out to UKIP. They did not come

3:58:50 > 3:58:49close to anywhere. But very much the thought is that UKIP have hoovered

3:58:50 > 3:58:49up a of disgruntled Labour voters. They have decided to vote for UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49instead. What was the actual outcome in Swindon? The Conservatives now

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have 36 out of 57. The Liberal Democrats were very close to one

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seat, but ended up with Labour. It is the Conservatives going forwards,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour backwards. Do you have that real problem in the south? Swindon

3:58:50 > 3:58:49was not one of the big names that I was aware we were targeting. Who

3:58:50 > 3:58:49were you targeting? The ones I will be looking at, Cambridge,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Redbridge, those are the type of places. Why did Ed Miliband go to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Swindon? I do not know. I will be completely honest with you, I have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49no idea. Was it a mistake to go to Swindon? I don't. You have been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doing a good job of underplaying the expectations of Labour, the suppose

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it could government in waiting. That is their role. (CROSSTALK) you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49started off by saying 150 games. The experts say you should make 500. ``

3:58:50 > 3:58:49gains. The idea that Swindon wasn't on your target, of course it was. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have increased the majority. What should be 80 key target for you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49before a general election. `` should be our key target. Hang on. You can

3:58:50 > 3:58:49worry about your situation. We will worry about us. Let's not forget,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Conservative party haven't won a majority since 1992. Will they look

3:58:50 > 3:58:49closer to getting a majority? On the basis of what we have heard, they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49both have reason to be miserable. UKIP have gained a seat from the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Tories in Southend. The Labour deputy leader of robber Rome has,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49this is not confirmed, lost his seat to UKIP `` rather rum. Both are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49losing seats to UKIP `` Rotherham. White we are joined from Ed Davey,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the energy minister in the coalition. What is your reading of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what is happening in Kingston? Will the Lib Dems hold onto it? We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49started off as a marginal borough with a two seat majority and lots of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49marginal wards. That is being played out and I think there will be a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49handful of wards that decide this election. And, a handful of votes,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it could be just a few handful across the borough who decide the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49control of the council. No indication on how it has gone from

3:58:50 > 3:58:49your people on the ground? It is too early to call. It has been a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hardfought campaign. There have been a lot of local issues. For example,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a regeneration of a high street was controversial. The Conservative

3:58:50 > 3:58:49mayor of London was paying for it by the LibDem council got the blame.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49There have been local issues around crime that have been raised by the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative colleagues of ours. We are the safest borrower in London.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49We have the lowest level of crime `` borough. There have been a lot of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49local issues and we will have to see how the votes and up landing. No

3:58:50 > 3:58:49reflection on the coalition, then ? If you look at our leaflets, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour Party leaflets, it has been focused on the issues in the Royal

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Borough of Kingston. E.g., the issue around primary schools. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Coalition came up on the doorstep. What do people say to you and your

3:58:50 > 3:58:49workers about the coalition? That they don't like the coalition? It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49was a mixture. Some love and some hate, which isn't surprising. It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49isn't dissimilar on the streets in Kingston. If you lose Kingston, will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it be because of the coalition? Does it mean that your seat might be in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49danger? That's not what the election is fought on. It's not fought on the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49national issues. I can't recall a leaflet with national issues on it.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49It's all about coal worth Greenway, the rejuvenation I spoke about,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49local crime, local schools and so on, local democracy. It doesn't fit

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with the script of national commentators, that it has been an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49exercise in healthy democracy. It was you, not me, who said the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49coalition came up on the doorstep all the time. Green I didn't. I said

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it did come up. Local issues came up a lot more. If Kingston were to go

3:58:50 > 3:58:49LibDem, sorry, Conservative I mean, would you be thinking, can I hold

3:58:50 > 3:58:49this seat at the general election? I have never been complacent about my

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seat. I won by majority of 56 vote in 1997. I have always assumed that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is my majority. If you do that, you will always work hard for local

3:58:50 > 3:58:49residents as you should do. I hold to a advice surgeries most weeks to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ensure people can see me face`to`face and talk to me about

3:58:50 > 3:58:49their opinions and their problems. I have always wanted to ensure I am

3:58:50 > 3:58:49therefore people. `` there for people. I won't be complacent. Is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49there anything you and your party can do between now and next May, to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49improve the LibDem chances? We've got to find a voice to get over the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49things we have been achieving in government. We are proud we have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49taken several minion of the low paid out of income taxed. We delivered on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a promise on increasing the state pension faster than before ``

3:58:50 > 3:58:49several million. All of the things we have campaigned for and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49delivered, free school meals for infants. Not a lot of people have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49heard of them. That is one thing I found when speaking with people by

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doorstep. People haven't heard enough of the good and popular

3:58:50 > 3:58:49things the Lib Dems have achieved. We need to get that over more loudly

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and more clearly. Before we go to the news, Nick has got some more

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results. We are getting more news of UKIP gains, two in Basildon, one in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Peter Brock, three in Basildon, Essex it seems is a UKIP man. I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49should remind you that we are only going to get half of these 4000 also

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results in today. They are interesting `` or so. We will be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49back here from midday tomorrow with the final third or half, whatever it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is. For the moment, let's go to the news because it is just past half

3:58:50 > 3:58:49past one in the morning. Counting is under way in the local

3:58:50 > 3:58:49elections held across England and Northern Ireland. Millions around

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the UK have voted in elections for the European Parliament. The success

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of the UKIP party has had an impact on the major parties. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative party chairman rejects calls for a pact with UKIP and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, predicts his party will cause an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49earthquake politically. Chris Mason has more.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49The race is on. Sunderland prides itself on the speed of its election

3:58:50 > 3:58:49counting. If that means letting it across the count centre with a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ballot box, so be it. Elections took place in 161 councils in England and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49some are counting right now in the dead of night. Some will start after

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a few hours of sleep. UKIP appear to be doing well. It looks as though

3:58:50 > 3:58:49these results will leave the other parties to work out what to do about

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what they see as the purple peril of the UKIP party. This isn't a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49protest. It is a consistent amount of the public voting for UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49consistently. It tells the public that if you vote UKIP, you are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49amassing good company. In many respects, this isn't about UKIP as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about dissatisfaction with the economy and with politics. We need

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to ensure we are delivering a long`term plan and that we are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49solving the country's blondes. You don't do that through easy

3:58:50 > 3:58:49soundbites `` the country's problems. You do it by having a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49proper programme. The Lib Dems look likely to get another kicking. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49believe in coalition government. I think it is a better form of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49government. Single government, elected on 35% of the government is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49terrible. White voting has been occurring in the Netherlands also in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the European Parliament elections. Plenty of other countries around the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49EU will vote in the coming days. There won't be any results as to who

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will have to rustles until Sunday night. `` who will head to Brussels.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49You can find out more if you visit our website including analysis and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49all of the results as they come in. In other news, the search for the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49four British sailors missing in the mid` Atlantic for almost a week

3:58:50 > 3:58:49could be called off in over 24 hours. The coastguard in the US said

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it will continue the search throughout the night and tomorrow.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49They gave a cut`off point of midnight tomorrow, local time if

3:58:50 > 3:58:49there is no success. The families of the sailors and the British

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Consulate have been informed. It is after our deepest consideration that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49we suspend our active search efforts. Unfortunately, we haven't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49had sightings this far and we have concluded none of the debris all the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49objects located during the search have correlated to the Cheeki

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Rafiki. The number of EU citizens moving to the UK increased by 27% in

3:58:50 > 3:58:492013. Figures from the office of national statistics suggest net

3:58:50 > 3:58:49migration, the difference between the numbers coming into the UK and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49those leaving, remains unchanged. They say work is still the main

3:58:50 > 3:58:49reason for people wanting to come to the UK. The military coup in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Thailand is met with widespread international condemnation. John

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Kerry said there wasn't any justification for it. In Thailand,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people have spent their first night under military curfew. The military

3:58:50 > 3:58:49government has ordered the former PM and other senior political figures

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to report to authorities in the next few hours. The controversy

3:58:50 > 3:58:49surrounding fracking is likely to intensify with the publication today

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of a government report estimating that a potentially huge supply of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49untapped energy is located the below the surface of the earth in southern

3:58:50 > 3:58:49England. Surveys will suggest there are several billion barrels of oil

3:58:50 > 3:58:49trapped in shale rock beneath the Weald. Those are the headlines. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will have more throughout the night. Now, back to Vote 2014.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Here in the election centre, a grand Palace. We might have a look at the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49councillors. Ten down and 150 to go. That is how many councils have been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49completed. The Labour Party on top with 69. The Conservatives have lost

3:58:50 > 3:58:4911 seats, on 44. Look at this, UKIP have gained ten, double the number

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that Labour has gained so far tonight. It is very early. If that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49sets a trend, it will be an interesting night ahead. We spoke

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about Swindon. That was somewhere that Labour were expecting to pick

3:58:50 > 3:58:49up. They didn't. If they don't pick up Swindon, which should have been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49easy, a very small majority, what about some of these places? They

3:58:50 > 3:58:49become interesting contest. Cambridge, Redbridge and so on, they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are places that are within the site of Labour. Just short by three. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49haven't had the result in yet. They will be disappointed if they can't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49send this read. This is clearly on their target. It will be the first

3:58:50 > 3:58:49time Labour takes over council since 1999 in a knife edge contest. If

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they don't get Swindon, which was also in their sights, will they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49really pick up Walsall or Cambridge? It will be a big result for Ed

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Miliband. This was LibDem controlled until two years ago. It is Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49who has had momentum. Certainly up until 2012. Are we starting to see

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that slip back? It will be interesting. The unknowns of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49list. Particularly the London ones, like Merton and Redbridge in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49south`west, this is the old council and it is more obligated. Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49needs three games. `` complicated. Once we have had a Swindon result,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it is starting to make all of these look more complicated and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49picture will get intense in some of the hung councils. It is interesting

3:58:50 > 3:58:49because the benchmarks, roughly speaking, were that Labour should,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on the basis of devious elections, gained 400`500. Conservatives lose

3:58:50 > 3:58:49200. Lib Dems lose 350. UKIP so far are doing well enough that we cannot

3:58:50 > 3:58:49discount the possibility they will make up more than predicted. It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49depends on them making sufficient places to come first. As Nick

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Robinson mentioned, the place where they are performing remarkably well

3:58:50 > 3:58:49appears to be in Essex, where both in Southend and Basildon wheezy

3:58:50 > 3:58:49wards getting 40% of the vote and winning more than just the odd ward

3:58:50 > 3:58:49`` winning. They can break through the barrier and make significant

3:58:50 > 3:58:49gains of seats. We will have to wait and see. We might find... Even the

3:58:50 > 3:58:4980 figure, which was towards the high expectation end, might be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49broken. We can clearly say, we are looking at another remarkable set of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results for UKIP. They may have been boosted the fact that the elections

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are on the same day as the European elections. That said, remember 12

3:58:50 > 3:58:49months ago we wondered whether UKIP was simply a balloon that would

3:58:50 > 3:58:49deflate. We know the answer to that. It hasn't deflated to any degree.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49When you say they can break through the first past the post barrier,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49does that apply to the Parliamentary election? We will have two weight

3:58:50 > 3:58:49much later into the night before we can aggregate of these results. See

3:58:50 > 3:58:49if there is anywhere where they will actually come in first. The truth

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is, nobody expects UKIP to make a major breakthrough in terms of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seats. But the better that UKIP do, the more the Conservatives feel

3:58:50 > 3:58:49under pressure to think about what they can do to get those voters back

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and the more the Labour Party worries about Europe and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration. More to come from this. I have got new guests here I will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49introduce in just a moment from the three main parties. It is an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49interesting evening. Jeremy, let us start by having a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49look at the vote. We will look at the map and see what

3:58:50 > 3:58:49colours we have on the map so far. There is not much. Everybody has

3:58:50 > 3:58:49been talking about Sunderland. We have got to Broxbourne north of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49London. And Swindon. That is all we have got so far. We do an exercise

3:58:50 > 3:58:49where we look at awards and try and work out the movement of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49parties. This is starting to get fascinating. If you look at what we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are focusing on, Labour horror and 40%. `` are on. You would tend to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49see quite a high figure. The remarkable figure is the 28% for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP. Not very good at all for the Conservatives. 8% for the Liberal

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Democrats. The Greens on 2%, BNP on zero. At every turn were we analyse

3:58:50 > 3:58:49figures, we are seeing something remarkable happening with UKIP. I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will show you the change. Let us be in mind what happened to thousands

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ten. It was not a good year for Labour. `` in 2010. What is going on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with Labour since 2010? They are not changing. 0%. They are where they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49were. Up 27%. `` UKIP are up. It was a result that gave them an overall

3:58:50 > 3:58:49majority. Look at the Liberal Democrats, down 15%. There is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49whole other story with the BNP. They are being pushed to the margins of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49politics. That purple column is remarkable. Let us choose a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49different year for comparison. Look at 2012. In 2012, Labour was doing

3:58:50 > 3:58:49better. The economy was not picking up as fast as the coalition was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hoping. Labour were picking up some speed. Look at this. Labour have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49gone backwards. UKIP are up 20%. The Conservatives are down three. Every

3:58:50 > 3:58:49graph we show you has a huge advance for the UKIP. And some worrying news

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for Labour. Coming down from some of them or promising periods. `` them

3:58:50 > 3:58:49all. I want to introduce my new guests.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Tom brake, Liberal Democrat MP, deputy Leader of the House of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Commons. And Nicky Morgan, financial secretary of the Treasury,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative from Loughborough. And the shadow Housing Minister for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour. What is happening tonight was to mark which one of you is most

3:58:50 > 3:58:49disconcerted by what is going on? It seems to be a pretty disconcerting

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results. It may feel late in the evening, but it is only days. Only a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49handful of the councils have been declared. In the Europeans, it might

3:58:50 > 3:58:49end up a a three party contest. It is really important for us to do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49well in areas that we need to win the general election. We will be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hearing about Redbridge. Swindon was a tight contest. You expected

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Swindon. Do not waste your leader. There are areas like Swindon and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49elsewhere that we are working hard on. But in Stevenage, we already run

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Stevenage council. The areas we need to win, it is different in different

3:58:50 > 3:58:49parts of the country. And the Conservative point of view? People

3:58:50 > 3:58:49want to send a clear message to all the parties. We would like you to do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49more on the issues that we care about. Did you expect this to be the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49message? I do not think any of us have knocked on doors would find

3:58:50 > 3:58:49this a surprise. They want us to go further on issues like Europe and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration. Also to tackle continuing issues such as the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49economy. That is what people expect us to do. It is going to be a mixed

3:58:50 > 3:58:49bag of results. We have already mentioned Swindon. Clearly there is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49an appetite for voting UKIP. That is not a surprise if you are on the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doorsteps. But it is important to develop that area. Politics is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49difficult business. You are all listening all the time, talking to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49each other and listening to the electorate. And yet these elections

3:58:50 > 3:58:49come up and you suddenly say, the message is this. You have had for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49years to listen and to do that. I think there is an anti` politics

3:58:50 > 3:58:49mood, as somebody was saying on the radio when I came in. That affects

3:58:50 > 3:58:49all of us. I think it has stylised a more. That is something we need to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49pay attention to. It may have hit some people who are not interested

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in politics. For those of us interested in politics on a daily

3:58:50 > 3:58:49basis, this is not a surprise, but it crystallises thoughts. You look

3:58:50 > 3:58:49resigned to that. I have seen it come up. There is no doubt that UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are going to have an effect on councils held by the Conservatives

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and the Labour Party. One of the things that will come out tonight is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that by voting UKIP, it does affect the results. Voting UKIP has an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49effect. What about the limit democratic `` Liberal Democrat

3:58:50 > 3:58:49position? It sounds as though it is going to be rather tight. You are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49looking a bit gloomy. I suspect he is tired of having gotten up at six

3:58:50 > 3:58:49o'clock. What we are looking at is how well are we going to do in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seats where we are strong and have a Member of Parliament. The experience

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of previous council elections is that we do quite well, we hold our

3:58:50 > 3:58:49own and it is interesting that we had a LibDem hold in Redcar. Can you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hold Sutton? We did not have any defect is in certain to UKIP. ``

3:58:50 > 3:58:49defectors in Sutton. We will have to wait and see what the result. What

3:58:50 > 3:58:49makes this unpredictable is that the addition of UKIP means there is much

3:58:50 > 3:58:49more split voting. Often I think in the council elections, there is no

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doubt that the European election, voting UKIP did follow through. A

3:58:50 > 3:58:49lot of the council ballot papers, people were only voting for one

3:58:50 > 3:58:49candidate that was carrying through to the council. We have got the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Castle point result. It has contributed control. This is the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49result that has just come in. Castle point, the place they used to name

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Essex man might be named UKIP man if this kind of trend continues. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives will be very disappointed to have lost control.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49You can see why. You are down and UKIP have taken those. There has

3:58:50 > 3:58:49been no change for the independence that independence.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49This is that part of the world, Essex, east London, the coastal

3:58:50 > 3:58:49areas, where UKIP have performed astonishingly well. That has been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49damaging to the Conservatives. Hartlepool, that has been lost. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have not got the figures on that one. And Southend`on`Sea has also

3:58:50 > 3:58:49slipped from Tory hands. We are joined by Peter bone, down in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Westminster. MP for Wellingborough. Wait is this happening? Why is the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative vote slipping to UKIP? Over the last six weeks the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative listening ten lead by our candidate called on 6000

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people. Many people on the doorstep said they were voting UKIP this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49time. But they are going to come back at the general election. What

3:58:50 > 3:58:49happened also, a lot of Labour voters said they would vote UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49this time and stay voting UKIP. That is why Labour is having such a bad

3:58:50 > 3:58:49night tonight. It is either a good night for centre`right voters. `` a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49very. Why do Conservatives have two leave the Conservatives? They just

3:58:50 > 3:58:49want to make sure that we get a referendum. In North

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Northamptonshire we are going to have 250,000 people vote on a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49referendum. We are doing it in North Northamptonshire. We need to make

3:58:50 > 3:58:49sure that we have this referendum. So you think people are voting UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49just to nail David Cameron's feeds to the floor on the promise he has

3:58:50 > 3:58:49made? The problem is that pesky Liberal Democrats. The Prime

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Minister would clearly introduce a referendum bill into this Parliament

3:58:50 > 3:58:49if he was not being blocked. I understand that because I am in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Parliament, it people in the country are asking. The best way to block

3:58:50 > 3:58:49him is to have a Conservative majority and not go into coalition.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49The problem is we cannot have the centre`right vote splitting. What

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will happen, it will be like Labour and the SDP. The Conservatives came

3:58:50 > 3:58:49up the middle and the left of centre vote was split. We cannot let Ed

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Miliband in. That would be a disaster. Conservative voters and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP have to have some kind of pact. You think that you should have a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49coupon election? What is the arrangement needs to be, it needs to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be worked out on a national level. For instance, we used to be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives and unions candidates. Why can't we be conservative and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP candidates? Maybe that would solve the problem and we would all

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be united and have a massive majority. Have you detected any

3:58:50 > 3:58:49appetite on David Cameron's part to do this? At the moment, both parties

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will say we do not want to do that. If you think about it, this is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49terrible night for Labour and they can still form a government because

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the centre`right vote is split. We must find some way to bring it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49together. Tonight is the confirmation that there is precisely

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that problem. The centre`right vote has fractured. There is no sign of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it. It is suggested that people who have not voted... You have not been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on the doorstep. People are saying that we are lending the vote to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP. 60% of people say that is not what they intend to do. 60% of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people say that they intend to carry on voting for UKIP. I trust talking

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to people on the doorstep, they are clear to me, a lot of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative voters will come back. I do not see the Labour voters

3:58:50 > 3:58:49voting UKIP and coming back. That is a phenomenon that we have not seen

3:58:50 > 3:58:49before. Is he right? If we have a split vote between the Conservatives

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and UKIP next year, we could end up with Ed Miliband walking through the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49door of Downing Street, but I disagree with his description. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have to make it clearer to people what the Conservative government are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doing on immigration, welfare, and education, healthcare, and go out

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and make the case. It is not the European referendum that is the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49issue? It is of concern, of course. You did not mention it in your list.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Immigration often comes higher in those voting for UKIP then Europe

3:58:50 > 3:58:49does. The Prime Minister has made it clear. You have made the point, if

3:58:50 > 3:58:49there is a majority Conservative government, we will have a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49referendum on the Prime Minister has made that clear and state his

3:58:50 > 3:58:49premiership on it. It has not made a difference, has it? He did that more

3:58:50 > 3:58:49than a year ago. He promised that they would have a referendum in 2017

3:58:50 > 3:58:49if there is a Conservative government then. It has not made a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49difference. What this shows, actually, is that the conservative

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tactics is to occupy the ground. The policies that they are pushing, it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is not working. `` Conservative. They have to tackle the anxieties

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and concerns people have, about insecurity in the workplace, and in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49renting their homes, and setting out policies that they are trying to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49address in those concerns. We are seeing this happening tonight. I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49don't think you're description is right either, UKIP is affecting all

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of the main parties. The point is making those policies clearer and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49setting out why UKIP do not have the policies, in terms of the issues we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are tackling. `` you're. We have two Tory gains in Birmingham from Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49``your. John would cut joins us, he is the MP for Barrow in Furness in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Northumbria. ``Woodcut. What should Labour be doing tonight? And the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49effect that UKIP is having? We have to hear what the voters are saying

3:58:50 > 3:58:49through this. Clearly, UKIP have done well. My sense, from the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doorstep, is a lot of people were voting for UKIP, and Labour voters

3:58:50 > 3:58:49were as well, more than Conservatives, because they were so

3:58:50 > 3:58:49dissatisfied with the state of the country and the people running for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it, and the political process. We all have to recognise... Did you say

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with the people running it? All of the people, everyone in Parliament?

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Principally, there is a dissatisfaction with the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49government. Yes, we have to recognise that the poor are not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49looking at Parliament at the moment as a model for a group of people who

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are properly connected to their lives. `` that the people are not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49looking. It is an opportunity for Labour and for us. We have used this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49campaign to good effect, to show that we understand some of the key

3:58:50 > 3:58:49pressure points on people 's lives, and the problems that they have with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49renting houses, and access to GPs. What we had to do over the coming

3:58:50 > 3:58:49years is to show that actually we are the party that has the long`term

3:58:50 > 3:58:49answers and ideas that can change this country. We can do that, but we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have two... We had to listen to what people are saying to us. `` have to.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Ed Miliband has made a strong point about the cost of living, we have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seen almost six measures, starting with the fuel price and freezing it.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Constant attempts, and always talking about the cost of living,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49even though he gets the grocery bill wrong, that is a slight flaw. It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49does not seem to be working. People are not coming round to Ed Miliband,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49or Labour, are they? The polls are changing and they are volatile. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have been ahead through a lot of them. There is a significant way to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49go and we have to use this stretch to keep this message. Ed Miliband

3:58:50 > 3:58:49has set the strategy. We have to do everything we can, all of us, to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49deliver it. Why are you going backwards? I don't accept that we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are, it is early days in terms of the results. The locals and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Europeans are going to show a varied picture. But they will show some

3:58:50 > 3:58:49dissatisfaction with the process. That is the challenge. And our

3:58:50 > 3:58:49opportunity. We are in an extraordinary position, David, to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have the prospect of being able to form the next government, after only

3:58:50 > 3:58:49one term... We have results from Birmingham. Two results from

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Birmingham are quite striking relief. In terms of what is going

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on. It looks like good news for the Conservatives. They have gained two

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seats from Labour ``really. But UKIP have done very well, it happens to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be the Tories who are the beneficiary of that. But for Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to lose wards in Birmingham, areas where they have to win the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Parliamentary seats. One of those seats has the Labour majority of

3:58:50 > 3:58:493500. These are tight margins. For them to lose is not good. Can I just

3:58:50 > 3:58:49say that I think it is difficult at the moment to make predictions. What

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is already clear, is that on the strength of the performance of both

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Labour Party and the Conservative party, it is very

3:58:50 > 3:58:49difficult to see how, in ten months time, either of them will be in a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49position to form a majority government. The UKIP support, UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49may not retain the level of support suggested by the polls. 60% say that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they will stay. They say that now, but whether they will repeat that in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ten months time, who knows? If there is a significant proportion of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49support retained by UKIP, it means that the Labour Party and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49conservator Hill the Conservative party... `` the Conservative party.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Are they going to unseat the Tories? It looks like they are. We came here

3:58:50 > 3:58:49because we are expecting to see some Labour games tonight, so far, all of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the gains from UKIP. They have taken three seats from the Tories. One

3:58:50 > 3:58:49from the Liberal Democrats `` gains. We think they will take

3:58:50 > 3:58:49another from the Conservatives which would put the authority into no

3:58:50 > 3:58:49overall control, that is a similar picture in other parts of a similar

3:58:50 > 3:58:49picture in other parts of Essex tonight. Southend is in no overall

3:58:50 > 3:58:49control, partly due to UKIP making five games. Castle point has gone

3:58:50 > 3:58:49into no overall control. UKIP took the seat from the council leader ``

3:58:50 > 3:58:49gains. Although the East Anglia, we hear of UKIP making notable gains.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49In pita bread they have taken three seats. UKIP are talking about taking

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a seat in Ipswich in Suffolk. They are excited about Great Yarmouth,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that is tomorrow. Is there something special about Essex and the East

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Coast? `` in Peterborough. It has always been seen as UKIP territory.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49The support for that party is higher than any other part of the country.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49If you ask Farage why that is, he says it is the Oliver Cromwell of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49fact, he came from Saint Ives in Cambridgeshire. UKIP have done well

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in Cambridgeshire, particularly in Essex. `` effect. It is big on the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49doorsteps here, it is partly to do with the dissatisfaction and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49disaffection with the mainstream politicians. UKIP say they have done

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a lot of this on the doorstep. A lot of people who have voted had not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49voted because they care a lot about Europe, but because they are not one

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of the above. A referendum on Europe is not top of the list? It is not,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49when you talk to people and ask why they have voted for UKIP, I have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49never yet found anyone who has said to me, that it is because I want a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49referendum on Europe. They say it is because they care about immigration

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and the main parties are not doing anything about it. More often than

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not, a keep hearing that they are looking for something different and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49fresh and they have had enough of the mainstream parties, they all the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49same, so the same thing, and do not stick to promises. Let's see one the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49fresh faces. The fresh faces of UKIP from our Croydon centre. Winston

3:58:50 > 3:58:49McKenzie. You called Croydon a dump yesterday. Why do you think that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Croydon is a dump? I have lived in Croydon ever since I was five years

3:58:50 > 3:58:49old. I came to this country, my parents worked hard, and I have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49watched Croydon grow and grow. Over the years, the people of Croydon

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have been deceived, disenfranchised, by the local government. And the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP party has come along, and there are feathers everywhere! They have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49failed to reach the wider community and it will always be that way.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Tonight, you are seeing the beginning of something absolutely

3:58:50 > 3:58:49phenomenal, David. Because, people from Labour, Conservatives, and not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to mention the non`descript Liberal Democrats, the Greens do not even

3:58:50 > 3:58:49come into it! They are all learning a very harsh lesson. Farage has led

3:58:50 > 3:58:49his party to something absolutely fantastic. What a great leader! It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is this type of leadership that this country needs today! If you are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49British, whether you are black, white, yellow, or pink, you have to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49get out there and defend this country and all that it stands for!

3:58:50 > 3:58:49All that it stands for! You asked why I thought Croydon had become a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49dump... It is simply because the people have been disenfranchised.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49So... Just to interrupt you for a moment, the issue for you is not so

3:58:50 > 3:58:49much UKIP as pulling out of Europe, but the other things that people are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49upset by? Immigration, the cost of living. Everything? It is not just

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration, David, what has happened is that there has been this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49massive drive about racism! And the word racism has been demeaned and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49diminished. It does not mean a single thing. Certain sections of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the press, with the coalition, they have used it as a political weapon.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49They have played the race card. 100%. How do you mean? In what way

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have they done that? They have turned around, and they have said

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that UKIP are racist! I would like to know, whenever did an Englishman

3:58:50 > 3:58:49has to fight against the colour of his skin? Now, I am a black man and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I am proud! But the simple fact is that the media have turned around

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and said, that man is black, you cannot call him black! You cannot!

3:58:50 > 3:58:49And now, we have a situation where the word racism means nothing, so

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the media, together with the three main parties, have played the race

3:58:50 > 3:58:49card to trick, full, and condemned the people into believing that our

3:58:50 > 3:58:49party is racist. Our leader is a christian man, why would I be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49involved with a bunch of racists? What will happen in Croydon tonight?

3:58:50 > 3:58:49And in the general election? In Croydon I believe that we will do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49very well. Whether or not we will make any real fantastic games, I am

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not certain yet. But, I know that the strategy in the rest of London

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and parts of Kent, and what have you... `` gains. There has been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49significant change. All you can hear is UKIP, UKIP, UKIP! This party and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49its leader have changed the face of British politics. And these guys

3:58:50 > 3:58:49sitting back, they keep coming in with this rhetoric that one day,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49everyone will change their minds. And returned to the status quo. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49status quo is no more! Guys, you need to wake up! It's a disaster.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour have lost votes, the Conservative have lost votes and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49nobody want to learn the truth. Some people, David, just want to live a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49lie. They don't want to face the truth! Thank you. So, you have heard

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what he says. UKIP is on the way. I don't think that is right. What we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have seen tonight, obviously, is UKIP doing well in these elections.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Tonight is a step forward and it will be a different campaign between

3:58:50 > 3:58:49now and the next general election. We do have a fourth party that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49clearly has a very loud voice and appeals to a number of people but

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they do not have any MPs and we will have to see what happens in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49European elections. There is an anti` politic mood and that is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49incumbent on all of us. What about being described as the non`descript

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Liberal Democrats? If there are a sick of vacant number of UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49councillors elected and they end up controlling some councils, it will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be interesting to see how effective they are `` if there are a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49significant number of UKIP councillors. Our experience is that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they do very little when they aren't there. Let us see if they are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49capable of running local authorities and then the electorate can look at

3:58:50 > 3:58:49their record. At the moment, their support is that of a protest party.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I understand that. People concerned about issues like immigration. But

3:58:50 > 3:58:49when they run their local councils, it won't be immigration they deal

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with by the bread and butter of services for the top I agree that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49there is a mood against politics out there and what we are seeing in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49terms of UKIP doing well in these elections so far is that it's more

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about anti` politics and anti` Europeanism. And on the doorstep

3:58:50 > 3:58:49today where I'm an MP, nobody mentioned a referendum on Europe. No

3:58:50 > 3:58:491's mentioned Europe. What we have to do is make sure that over the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49next months, we start rebuilding that trust. I have only been a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49politician for four years and on the doorstep, people tell me that we are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49all the same, but the policies of the two main parties could not be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49more different. It will be a much different campaign next year

3:58:50 > 3:58:49compared to what it was in 2010. But it makes it so difficult to do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49anything about that. If a referendum was an issue, it would be easy to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49change the policy. But if the analysis is that they just don't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49like for rather indistinct reasons, it becomes very difficult as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49mainstream established parties to know exactly what to do about that.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Unless you wait for them to become part of the establishment. I would

3:58:50 > 3:58:49argue that Nigel Farage is part of the establishment. He says he is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not, but look at his background. The key is the very thing that he

3:58:50 > 3:58:49condemns. They will be in positions of power where they will have to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49make decisions and their electorate will find them wanting. And where

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will the protest vote going next? Does this mean UKIP should get to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49win some councils? They came very close in Rotherham. They got ten

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seats and Labour got 11. Extraordinary. It's only one third,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49however. The other interesting thing is that we have 143 local councils

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to go. I don't know if they can't through the night. John, do you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49know? Once they have decided to count, they will try to finish. They

3:58:50 > 3:58:49don't want to come back tomorrow morning and finish it off. The pace

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of the county has been slowed up by the pace of the European elections.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49We could still get some different results later in the night. Of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49course, they have to separate the European ballot papers from the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49others. People are not just talking about that separation but the fact

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that the European ballot paper is so long is itself taking a long time.

3:58:50 > 3:58:4923 parties standing in the European election. Because of the Westminster

3:58:50 > 3:58:49system, they have all the names of the candidates. It's not as bad as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in Australia, where the ballot papers are massive. But the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49interesting thing is that the first couple of parties had UK and all of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Europe in their name, so it was quite clear that some people were

3:58:50 > 3:58:49voting for those, thinking that in fact it was UKIP. Independence from

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Europe. Do you know these other 23 parties? Personally? No. But one of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49them is from a former UKIP member. He has set up a party rather like

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you can do in the old`fashioned days as having a phone book or a Google

3:58:50 > 3:58:49search, if you put the letter A the beginning of your name, you get to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the front of the ballot paper. UKIP is at the bottom of the ballot paper

3:58:50 > 3:58:49whereas a independence from Europe is closer to the front. They are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49talking about overall control. The Conservatives have lost control of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Peter Brock. `` Peterborough. There have been a lot of concerns about

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration that have been raised there. As Tom says, it will be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49interesting to see how those parties perform when in office. One of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49constituencies that had mass European immigration in the early

3:58:50 > 3:58:49days of the opening of the doors, many people moved in there, and it's

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a marginal Conservative seat. Interestingly, he has been in an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49argument with his own conservative leader of the Council as to how to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49deal with immigration. He is known as a hardliner in Parliament, saying

3:58:50 > 3:58:49we should echo UKIP. But the leader of the council, possibly no longer

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the leader of the council after tonight, says that the city should

3:58:50 > 3:58:49welcome the immigrants and see them as part of the city. Good evening.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour held Rotherham council, but what damage have you suffered from

3:58:50 > 3:58:49other parties? UKIP certainly had the best of the night, taking votes

3:58:50 > 3:58:49across the board. They took votes and seats from the Conservatives, as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49well, and the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed and they also took votes

3:58:50 > 3:58:49from people who have not voted for some time. This is a message or a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49warning to all mainstream parties. People are angry and they are saying

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that they are not seeing or hearing enough of what they care about in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49mainstream politics. UKIP gained ten seats in Rotherham. Is that correct?

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Not quite. They kept one and gained nine. Two from the Tories and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49rest from us. It's a massive increase. Labour went down eight. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have heard a lot of discussion about what this is all about. What is your

3:58:50 > 3:58:49opinion? This is the politics of protest and for me, it was captured

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in the middle of the afternoon in the pouring rain when I was trying

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to get a lifelong Labour supporter who had never voted anything else in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49his life and he told me that he was voting UKIP because we all needed a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49good kicking. Nothing more than that? Nothing about Europe or

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration? Concerns about immigration definitely feed into the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49feeling that people have but it's by no means just that. People in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Rotherham are very worried about young people. There are not any jobs

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for them. They are worried about trying to make ends meet. People are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49under terrible financial pressure. It's possibly hard for you in London

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to understand that. The challenge for the Labour Party is to get

3:58:50 > 3:58:49across more clearly some of the things that we have pledged to do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that will make a difference. A guaranteed job for all young

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people. Free childcare 25 hours per week for working parents. And, of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49course, a price freeze on energy bills. That will help a lot of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people who are under pressure. Would that be enough to stave off the UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49onslaught? Do you have to do something more than that? Do you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have to show that you have heard the request, even if it is not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49everybody's request, for a referendum on Europe? As you would

3:58:50 > 3:58:49expect, I have done a lot of campaigning in this election. Not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49just in this election period but in the weeks and months leading up and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I cannot recall anybody talking to me about a referendum for Europe.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49This was not about the policies or the policy that UKIP has. This is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49protest against all parties and a challenge, I think, to all the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49mainstream parties. The interesting thing, then, is what exactly Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49can do. The two factors on labour's support are, to put it brutally, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49question of the leadership of Ed Miliband and the economic

3:58:50 > 3:58:49credibility of Ed Balls. If those are the problem is, what do you do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about it? The UKIP support tonight was a critical commentary and a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49reaction to the political system as people see it in Rotherham. Yes, it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49was directed in large part to us because this is a Labour town but it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49has also been directed towards the Tories and it has a direct did

3:58:50 > 3:58:49toward the Liberal Democrats and it has caught some of those people who

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have not voted for a while and that is why I see this as really a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49challenge to us all. `` directed. We have to say that we understand what

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it's like and we will make a response that will make a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49difference. You have said that and you have described some of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49things that should be done and they are already things that Ed Miliband

3:58:50 > 3:58:49has been talking about about cost of living and other measures that he

3:58:50 > 3:58:49has put forward. Should there be a sharper fronts `` sharper response

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to Nigel Farage from Ed Miliband? Is there something more that he can

3:58:50 > 3:58:49do? We have to get across much more clearly and much more strongly the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49things that we have said that we will do. Much of that has got lost

3:58:50 > 3:58:49over the last few weeks and there is a great deal more that we have to do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on that front. Do you think UKIP is a danger to British politics? I see

3:58:50 > 3:58:49things as UKIP being a challenge rather than a danger. UKIP is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49challenge to the mainstream of conventional politics. But I also

3:58:50 > 3:58:49think that by the time of the next election, when people will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49essentially have a choice between a Labour led government or a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49conservative led government, much of what I see this week and in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results overnight about the politics of protest will be overcome. But

3:58:50 > 3:58:49only if we are clearer, stronger and get our act more forcefully

3:58:50 > 3:58:49together. And I also believe that the supporters that Labour losers in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49this election will be easier to bring back to us than the supporters

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Conservatives are losing as well. I think there are supporters

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that have gone to UKIP are much less reconcilable to David Cameron and to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Conservatives. I see the challenge is as difficult for us as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Labour Party, but much harder for the Tories. Thank you. Thank you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for joining us. Mr Jenkins, if you can turn around and face us... Good

3:58:50 > 3:58:49evening. I don't know if you were hearing what Mr Healey was saying.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP is a much bigger challenge to the Conservatives than to Labour in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the long run, he says. It obviously is a challenge. It is the story of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the night. What should the Tories do about it? This is an extraordinary

3:58:50 > 3:58:49evening. We have never seen anything like this in our political

3:58:50 > 3:58:49lifetimes. Yes, the Conservatives have got to be realistic that on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49balance, we would expect UKIP to be more of a challenge to us than the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49other parties. In my hometown of Colchester tonight, it's the Liberal

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Democrats who are losing seats to UKIP. Here, from where I am

3:58:50 > 3:58:49speaking, it's Labour that are losing seats `` the Conservatives

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that are losing seats to UKIP because labour is not taking the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seats that they Why are they taking? Let me just say what we have been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hearing tonight, from Labour, in the north`west, in the north, which is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that... Some people have said to us that Europe has never been mentioned

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on the doorstep, do you agree? Partly, there is a deep disillusion

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with how modern politics is very formulaic, it is very manicured,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49artificial, everyone has to have soundbites and slogans, nobody says

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what they really think. There is something refreshingly authentic,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49apparently, about UKIP. At least, at a superficial level. Secondly, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Liberals are in a state of collapse, they used to be the dustbin of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49protest votes, the protest is going to UKIP, we should not undervalue

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what the protest means to all three political parties. Finally, I do not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49think you can immediately extrapolate some European conclusion

3:58:50 > 3:58:49from UKIP success. But people are voting for a party that has a clear

3:58:50 > 3:58:49European stance, it may not be the prime motive, but they are happy

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with that. Let me draw your attention to a poll that came out in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Evening Standard about a week ago. The headline was "54% want to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49stay in the European Union". When they ask questions, do you want to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49continue with integration, stay the same, do you simply want trade? Only

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a tiny proportion wanted to leave together. Only a small proportion

3:58:50 > 3:58:49wanted to carry on with integration. The coronary of that is that most

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people are changing the relationship. They have positioned

3:58:50 > 3:58:49themselves well on that basis. You had to flush out what it means to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49recast that relationship but very few people want to carry on with the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49political integration which is what the present Treaty settlement means.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49There are two questions that arise. Firstly, is that the right policy

3:58:50 > 3:58:49anyway? Maybe it is not Europe that they think of when they vote UKIP,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and if it is Europe... If it is Europe, is David Cameron... Has he

3:58:50 > 3:58:49done enough to bring them back? Well, I think there is a premise in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49your question, which is deciding what policies... It is like painting

3:58:50 > 3:58:49by numbers, choosing the right colour to fit what the electorate

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are thinking. It is about what country you want to be, and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49presenting a clear and coherent view of what sort of country we want to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be. That is the challenge for the Conservatives over the next 12

3:58:50 > 3:58:49months, to integrate all of these things about our long`term economic

3:58:50 > 3:58:49plan, with what David Cameron was saying, we want trade and political

3:58:50 > 3:58:49cooperation, we do not want to be swallowed up in a superstate with a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49super currency. It has to be integrated into a clear and current

3:58:50 > 3:58:49view and a feeling of what country we are and what we aspire to be and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that will bring the voters back. And the relationship with Europe is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49central to that, and for you. Even if others are saying that is not the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49reason why people are voting for UKIP? People are disillusioned with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the mainstream parties because they do not feel they are hearing or

3:58:50 > 3:58:49honest or presenting a coherent theme. We have an opportunity I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49think. David Cameron has positioned as world to develop the theme is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that we have started to develop in the run`up to the general election.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Let's face it, the most important thing that people will be voting on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is their sense of security and economic well`being, but the overall

3:58:50 > 3:58:49direction of the country, the immigration issue comes up all of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the time. Not because people are against immigrants but because it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49comes up because people can see that whatever politicians say about

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration, they are not in control of who is entering or leaving the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49country, they cannot count the numbers properly. A report that my

3:58:50 > 3:58:49committee produced on statistics, it is devastating how out of control

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration policies are because we cannot count the numbers properly.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49David Cameron was grappling with that last week. Thank you very much

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for joining us. You have a brief comment on this? It is interesting

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that Bernard Jenkin and other Tories coming up are not using the result

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to say there should be a change of leadership. Six or 12 months ago,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they could have done. Not necessarily Mr Jenkin, but others.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49What they are trying to do is either trying to push a relationship with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP, as we heard earlier on the programme, but also that he should

3:58:50 > 3:58:49flesh out his European policy. That is what we will see now,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Eurosceptics in the Tory party will say, make a better offer to the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49electorate. Including one dealing with immigration. How things stand

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with the councillors, Emily, have we got those statistics? Here are the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hard facts. It is interesting to see that Labour is up six, and everyone

3:58:50 > 3:58:49else, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, they are down.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49These dramatic gains here, UKIP is the only party that is making these

3:58:50 > 3:58:49big gains, seven times as many as Labour. It is the smaller parties,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49residents and others, people have been asking about the Greens, they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are not here. They have not yet won a seat in places they have contested

3:58:50 > 3:58:49yet. It could be an indication of what we have seen so far. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Liberal Party and residents are gaining, but pretty much no movement

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for labour. These are net gains. The two other main parties are down.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Have a look at the Liberal Democrats, losing half of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49councillors so far. These net gains for UKIP, 43, seven times the amount

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of labour at the top of the scoreboard in terms of number. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have not done any of the key green targets yet `` Labour. We will talk

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to the green slate on. Now, it is time for the news with Mike and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49blue. The first results in local elections suggest that UKIP have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49made significant gains. `` Mike emboli. Calls have been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49rejected for a pact with UKIP. Farage Rickard that his party will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49cause a political earthquake. People around the UK have been voting for a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49European Parliament. The race is on, Sunderland pride itself on the speed

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of its election counting, if that means legging it across the centre

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with a ballot box, so be it. Some are counting right now, in the dead

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of night, and some will start after a few hours of sleep. It is still

3:58:50 > 3:58:49pretty early days, but UKIP is doing well. Here, in Hull, those wearing

3:58:50 > 3:58:49purple rosettes are also wearing big smiles. Says those are rustling

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tonight! Their feathers everywhere! In many respects, this is not so

3:58:50 > 3:58:49much about UKIP and dissatisfaction with our economy `` feathers. There

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are feathers everywhere! We have to be solving the problems of this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49country. You do not solve those through easy soundbites and quick

3:58:50 > 3:58:49solutions to complex problems, you do it with a proper programme. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Liberal Democrats looked like they will have another kicking tonight,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49but being in government is worth it, they say. We believe in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49coalition government. I think it is a better form of government. A

3:58:50 > 3:58:49single government, elected on 35% of the country, is terrible. The night

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is still young, although it does not feel like it, there is plenty of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49scuttling around, analysis, numbercrunching, and spin to come.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49You can find out more on the website. Including analysis and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49rest of tonight 's results as they come in. Other news for you, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49search for four British sailors missing in the Atlantic for one week

3:58:50 > 3:58:49now could be called off in just over 24 hours. The US coastguard is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49saying that it will continue to search through tonight and tomorrow,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49but has given a cut`off of midnight tomorrow local time if there is no

3:58:50 > 3:58:49success. The families of the sailors and the British Consulate have been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49informed. It is after the deepest consideration that we suspend active

3:58:50 > 3:58:49search efforts. Unfortunately, we have had no sightings yet and have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49concluded that none of the debris or objects located during the search

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have correlated to the Cheeki Rafiki. The number of EU citizens

3:58:50 > 3:58:49moving into the UK increased by 27% in 2013. Figures from the office of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49National statistics estimate that net migration remains unchanged. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ONS says that workers the main reason that people wanted to come to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the UK. Ukrainian soldiers have suffered the biggest loss of life so

3:58:50 > 3:58:49far in the crisis in the east of the country, with the presidential

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election just days away, the violence shows no sign of easing. 13

3:58:50 > 3:58:49were killed and dozens wounded in a attack by pro` Russian militants on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49military checkpoint. China's state media are saying that five suspects

3:58:50 > 3:58:49blew themselves up in a suicide attack. Security officials on high

3:58:50 > 3:58:49alert, 31 people were killed in the regional capital. Two vehicles

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ploughed into a crowd which drew market, explosives were thrown and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49one of the vehicles were blown up. `` was blown up. The military coup

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in Thailand has been met with widespread condemnation. John Kerry

3:58:50 > 3:58:49has said that there is no justification for it. In Trident

3:58:50 > 3:58:49itself, the first night has been spent under military curfew. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Prime Minister and other political figures have to report to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49authorities in the next few hours. `` in Thailand.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Everyone has been talking about UKIP, they have not been doing so

3:58:50 > 3:58:49well in London. This is the information that we have had. How is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour doing in London? I think we are doing pretty well. We have not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seen the concrete results yet, but in terms of the people I have spoken

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to, on the ground, in Wolverhampton, and my own

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Parliamentary seat, we could do well in Redbridge, hopefully, and some of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the key areas in London. You heard what Bernard Jenkin was saying in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49response? I think it reflects what anyone who has been on the doorsteps

3:58:50 > 3:58:49over the past few weeks has said. There is a clear issue with spotting

3:58:50 > 3:58:49here. People are talking about pacts, something that we have ruled

3:58:50 > 3:58:49out. The other point that Bernard made was that next year, people will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be voting on the future of this country. The need for the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49continuation of the long`term economic plan, and the policies to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49rebuild the economy, it has just come up. The Conservatives have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49helped Tamworth. They had to gain and show that they could hold. They

3:58:50 > 3:58:49should, if they want a majority in parliament. In Swindon, Tamworth,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49there are two gains in Birmingham. Labour do not look like they are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49making gains, even Michael foot gained 1000 seats in 1981. I heard

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it was a different kind of year. But they will not gain 1000 seats

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tonight. I think that in past European elections, that has been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the protest vote. We do not know how much of the UKIP support will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49consolidate or follow`through into the general election. We know that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in past elections and European elections, we polled 14% of the year

3:58:50 > 3:58:49rose, and have gone on to pull 24% in the general elections. I don't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49think we can read too much into this. In London, in a London

3:58:50 > 3:58:49perspective, there is not much evidence of a UKIP surge, that has

3:58:50 > 3:58:49been limited, in many seats, they have not put up candidates or have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49only put up one. They are not in a position to have the local authority

3:58:50 > 3:58:49because they do not have the numbers. What is the position in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49London? There may be part of the capital where they are doing

3:58:50 > 3:58:49better, but the message from the polls has been quitted significant

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that UKIP's advance is not doing as strongly in London. Your predictions

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are usually quite good. Thank you. I'm not trying to flatter you. They

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are. Those straws in the wind from Wandsworth were... Also at the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49moment Labour is not making much in the way of games outside of London,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49we should not be surprised when we come to London if Labour do make

3:58:50 > 3:58:49quite a lot of games, not least the cause London is responsible for 40%

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of the seats being contested tonight. `` making gains. Be aware

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that those gains may be a story. While Labour may make progress in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49London, outside of the capital, the progress may be for another party.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Could this be important for the general election? I have heard all

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the politicians saying that everything changes for the general

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election compared to the local election. This is true. We have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49never previously in English politics had a fourth party perform this well

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in local elections. We have never previously in European elections

3:58:50 > 3:58:49been sitting here and saying that we think the fourth party will come

3:58:50 > 3:58:49first. And it may be true that UKIP's support will fall, but will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it be back down to the 3% of 2010? We shall see. Thank you. Now, where

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have we got to? Jeromy? We received a tweet a few minutes ago. Does this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49mean Ed Miliband is not going to get into the House of Commons as Prime

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Minister? If Labour are flagging here, what are Labour's chances in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the general election? This illustrates how the system helps

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour. Let me bring on the 2010 general election `` 2005 general

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election result. Labour came first ahead of the Conservatives. You can

3:58:50 > 3:58:49see it was a 3% lead to Labour. Let's see how that would work out in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the House of Commons. 356 MPs on the Labour benches. On the opposition

3:58:50 > 3:58:49benches, losing the election with 198. Of the Liberal Democrats with

3:58:50 > 3:58:4962 and then 30 others. That is what happened in 2005. That is the result

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of a 3% lead for Labour. Tony Blair had a 62 seat majority. Go forward

3:58:50 > 3:58:49five years to 2010. Let's show you the result. Here are the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49percentages. The Conservatives came first with 36%. 29% for Labour, 23%

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for the Liberal Democrats and 15% for the others. You can see that the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives are seven points ahead, a bigger lead than Labour had

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in 2005. Let's see what the House of Commons look like after the election

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in 2010. 370 Conservative MPs with an overall majority. The opposition

3:58:50 > 3:58:49benches. Labour on 258 and 57 Liberal Democrats. And the others

3:58:50 > 3:58:49make up 28. So, a 7% lead and the majority... Well, there isn't one?

3:58:50 > 3:58:49The Conservatives were short by 19 and had to go into coalition with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Liberal Democrats to get past that crucial 326. My point is that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it easier for Labour to win with fewer votes. Many reasons as to why

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that is but essentially, it's because the Conservative vote does

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not work efficiently for them. They pile up votes in safe seat, Windows

3:58:50 > 3:58:49seats by miles, whereas Labour take victories in tight seats on lower

3:58:50 > 3:58:49turnout and get more seats per vote than the Conservatives. Lots of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49different factors. This is why the boundary changes that did not go

3:58:50 > 3:58:49through... Maybe that was one of the biggest losses for the Conservatives

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in the last few years. It stop them correcting a system that is loaded

3:58:50 > 3:58:49against them. It could be a steal for Labour? It's not our fault that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Tory voters tend to have bigger groups in their own constituencies.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49The system is as it is... There was a vote to change the boundaries. It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49was the right thing to do. There were some seats where MPs are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49present in much smaller numbers. You would have got that if you had

3:58:50 > 3:58:49agreed to what the Liberal Democrats wanted. They wanted to reform the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49House of Lords. Look, there is no point revisiting history. We have to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have an election next year on the boundaries that we have got. But it

3:58:50 > 3:58:49may be that you get more of the popular vote than Labour but because

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you failed to change the boundaries, because you failed to get an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49agreement with your partners in the coalition, you might not get in.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49That is the nature of coalition and that is why we will be campaigning

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for a majority Conservative government. In the system we have is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49flawed but there is not much we can do about it. The alternative vote

3:58:50 > 3:58:49got nowhere at all. It's very difficult to see how a majority

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservative government would happen on the basis of their current

3:58:50 > 3:58:49platform and the current boundaries. It gives them a 6%, 7% drag anchor,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49really. They have to have that many more votes to have the majority

3:58:50 > 3:58:49compared to Labour. This is why Labour can look in certain areas

3:58:50 > 3:58:49where they are holding their vote up and say that they could form a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49majority government on the basis of 36% of the vote. The leader of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Greens in England and Wales. Thank you for joining us. We have not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49heard very much news about the Greens except for the fact that they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are doing modestly well. At the moment, we don't have much news from

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the places where we have high hopes. The word on the ground is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that we are very confident in becoming the official opposition to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Tories in one electric. We are also expecting results from Bristol,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49where we also have high hopes. The word on the ground... Wood is very

3:58:50 > 3:58:49clear is that people have voted against the three this as usual

3:58:50 > 3:58:49parties. We will see the result of that coming through in the European

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election results on Sunday. In the past, there had been a surge of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49green support in the European elections. And then it dissipated.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Are you in for another surge? Looking back to 1989, we got 15

3:58:50 > 3:58:49cents. Back then, it was proportional representation, so we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49got those seat. The last opinion poll was a 12%. It would be an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49increase in our number of MEPs. And from what I'm hearing on the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ground, there are lots of Liberal Democrat voters turning to us on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49issues of tuition fees and nuclear power. What has been interesting on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Twitter is that anecdotally, there are a lot of very disillusioned

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour voters who are coming to us as well. Where are your strengths as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a party in terms of councils in Britain and why are they in those

3:58:50 > 3:58:49places? In Brighton and Hove, we have a minority administration full

3:58:50 > 3:58:49dock we have been the official opposition in Norwich. We are strong

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in Oxford. We are also expect gains in Lancaster. We are seeing gains in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the West Midlands, where we have been campaigning strongly in recent

3:58:50 > 3:58:49years. What we're doing is spreading out and becoming a truly national

3:58:50 > 3:58:49party, not just focused on those few mainly university cities but

3:58:50 > 3:58:49becoming truly national. That is what happened in the County election

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results last year. We got our first county councils in Cornwall, Essex,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Surrey, Kent and in some places in the West Midlands. Have you been hit

3:58:50 > 3:58:49by the rise of UKIP? There is a vanishingly small number of people

3:58:50 > 3:58:49deciding whether to vote UKIP or green. But we are picking up

3:58:50 > 3:58:49disaffected Liberal Democrats. Perhaps the focus has been on Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49but the Liberal Democrat vote is tanking. We are also picking up

3:58:50 > 3:58:49large numbers of disaffected Labour people and particularly Tory voters

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on the issue of fracking and disruption to the green belt. You

3:58:50 > 3:58:49said that you wanted to triple the number of MEPs for the Greens. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are looking to increase our MEPs. I'm confident that will happen. On

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the last European results, we travelled. I'm confident about

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Scotland potentially going up to a seven seat. Why are you not reading

3:58:50 > 3:58:49your party into Europe? I stood for election as party leader saying that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in these elections, I would try to get as many people elected with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49outstanding myself will stop why is that? Because I wanted to travel a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49lot around the country to support local parties and local candidates,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49very strong candidates. In doing that from the centre in a national

3:58:50 > 3:58:49position when I'm not trying to get elected myself. Thank you. What do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you think? We have still only had 28 councils declared. That is right.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49The Tories have lost control of Basildon. You will remember back in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the 70s when there was a moment it was clear that John Major was going

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to beat Neil Kinnock and stay as prime minister as a result of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Basildon. It has had an iconic status ever since. The Tories have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49now lost control of it because of gains to UKIP. We are seeing some

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results coming in from London. UKIP is doing much worse there. Neil

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Hamilton, for example, the former Tory MP running for UKIP to be a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49councillor in Wandsworth, he has not been elected. Their vote share is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49very low compared to the rest of the country. The North of England,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49especially those early results, they where we saw those huge one. We saw

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP coming out of the opposition in those areas to Labour possibly where

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Liberal Democrats would have been in the past. We have seen gains

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in Essex for UKIP, where people are currently turning to neither the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Tories nor Labour but going to UKIP instead. But in London at the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49moment, it is very early days and we do not see much of that picture at

3:58:50 > 3:58:49all. Thank you. We can go now to Salford and a UKIP spokesman. What

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is going on in London? I know that UKIP is said not to be strong in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49London but why not? I'm actually now the economics spokesman. It has been

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a long day for everybody. One aspect of very vibrant economy that we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have. I think that London is a very different at act. It's a much more

3:58:50 > 3:58:49multicultural place with a younger population that is... And as a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49party, one thing we have had to do when looking at which seeks to go

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for is how we should spend such a finite resource in order to look at

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the areas where we could win. Now, and you heard Winston earlier this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49evening. There are plenty of candidates across London and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49focusing on London and you will see a progression over the next year or

3:58:50 > 3:58:49so in particular. I'm interested by the words you use full London is not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49easy for you because it's multicultural and young. Does that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49mean you are biased on the whole towards white older voters? Is that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49right? David, absolutely not. That is what you said. No, I said that is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what is happening in London. London is a much more international city.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49And so it has a different focus on what kinds of politics the ball

3:58:50 > 3:58:49once. Across the country, their rural issues that the Conservatives

3:58:50 > 3:58:49focused on in particular, and then we have the issues in the cities.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Especially in the North. Poverty and high energy costs. We have had to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49look at the issues on the grounds that affect those people. London is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49different and everybody accepts that. It is an international city,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49probably the truly greatest international city, and so there are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49different issues to consider. Nigel Farage accepts that you do not have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49policies at the moment of the kind you can put forward in one year from

3:58:50 > 3:58:49now. What are your economic policies? What will you put to the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49electorate on behalf of UKIP in just over 11 months? We are viewing the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49policies we have. One is that we would like to see the minimum wage,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49those not paying tax. And certainly those who are paying increases in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tax in the 40% range. That should be raised considerably. When we look at

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the amount of income we have as an economy and at how much we are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49spending we are doing exactly what the other parties are doing,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49reviewing and costing them. We will have a complete policy process

3:58:50 > 3:58:49later. Will it involve extensive cuts in public spending? Nigel

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Farage said the state is too big and that the coalition have been far too

3:58:50 > 3:58:49careful in their cuts that they have made so far. They certainly have cut

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in certain areas. The state is to be is what a number of parties has

3:58:50 > 3:58:49said. We have found that if you look at even one of the issues, foreign

3:58:50 > 3:58:49aid for example, the amount of foreign aid is a large part of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49budget. There are some parts that you need to spend. It isn't a large

3:58:50 > 3:58:49part at all, is it? It is about ?710 billion in spending. What are you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49spending? It is a significant part. We are doing a line by line review

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of all spending in government departments. In terms of travel, do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you want to see ego spending cuts that the coalition? `` bigger. We

3:58:50 > 3:58:49want to see more sensible cuts. If it is more than the coalition, that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49might occur. I can't give you that answer at the moment because most of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the policies we are viewing are on the table. I am having these numbers

3:58:50 > 3:58:49peer reviewed. An important part of policy testing is peer reviews.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49There has been talk about the UKIP vote being spread thinly across the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49country. You won't, in a first past the post system, stand a chance of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49winning a constituency in the general election. What is the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49strategy to winning? What will it be deferred to a decade or five years

3:58:50 > 3:58:49from now is yellow absolutely not. If you look at Essex, the North of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49England, we are winning council seats. We are putting money and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49energy into those areas. We are getting sick serious dart successful

3:58:50 > 3:58:49at this `` getting successful. We are the party they see as changing

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what is happening in this country. We talk common sense on a range of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49issues and yes there is a feeling that the other parties have been the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49same for a number of years. When we have spoken, they have held common

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ground. They have felt that we can provide the answers to the problems

3:58:50 > 3:58:49we have. When we put policies forward, many more will stay with us

3:58:50 > 3:58:49next year. So, you get are the voice of common sense. `` UKIP. They don't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have any policies. The only one they have is to pull out of Europe. To

3:58:50 > 3:58:49say they are thinking about it, you are contesting the only nationwide

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election between 2010 and 2015 and you don't know what you will see on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the economy. I remember you did say you would introduce a flat rate tax,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49meaning a tax rates for the majority of people on lower middle incomes.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49To say that you are a national party. There has also presumably

3:58:50 > 3:58:49being thought about economic policy in relation to Europe. I can

3:58:50 > 3:58:49understand why people have voted UKIP. I think we have agreed.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Listening to that, it shows there is an awful lot of work to do before

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you are near to becoming a national party next year. People should

3:58:50 > 3:58:49listen to what the spokesman has said. He has said the foreign aid

3:58:50 > 3:58:49budget is a big part of the UK budget, which isn't true. If he is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49suggesting that by getting rid of the foreign aid budget, the problems

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you could have identified will be solved, that won't happen. Broadside

3:58:50 > 3:58:49from the studio, what is your answer? I was indicating it was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49significant part. We mentioned, 660 billion. When you look at foreign

3:58:50 > 3:58:49aid, we look at the amount of money spent and only some of it needs to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be spent on the real issues affecting people abroad, which is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49health or illnesses. Some is spent very badly. What we are doing is our

3:58:50 > 3:58:49line by line review and that is only one portion of that. As I have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49indicated, we are rolling out some of those issues over a period of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49time. None of your parties have your policies set for 2015. That is fair.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I have to review on the basis of Osborne's last budget. You changed a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49lot in terms of pensions. You have changed a lot in terms of business

3:58:50 > 3:58:49rates and we need to consider that. There are issues about tax of course

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and about energy. My point is, when the people said they want change in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the economy, we want you as political parties to change, you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49didn't listen. We are listening and that is what we are taking into all

3:58:50 > 3:58:49policies in the future. Let come back to the councils and see how

3:58:50 > 3:58:49things stand. We have had just 28 declared. The list of Conservative

3:58:50 > 3:58:49defence councils. Look what happens if I update it. You can see places

3:58:50 > 3:58:49without overall control like Southend`on`Sea. That is the result

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tonight. Conservatives are on 19, independence on 13, Labour on nine

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and UKIP gaining five seat. You can see the Conservatives have

3:58:50 > 3:58:49suffered, the independents, labour and UKIP have risen on that council

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tonight. Tamworth is interesting. We picked it up because this was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49somewhere that it Miliband was hoping to take on the good night. It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hasn't happened. `` Ed Miliband. Overnight, UKIP has made again. `` a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49gain. That has stayed Conservative and I scroll through. We haven't got

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the full results. Basildon, we will take you there in a moment. Castle

3:58:50 > 3:58:49point and Basildon have left Tory control and are in no overall

3:58:50 > 3:58:49control. It might look like a thin pickings but with analysis of key

3:58:50 > 3:58:49wards as this comes in, we can deduce something from it. Jeremy, so

3:58:50 > 3:58:49far, what can you tell us about the standing of the main three, should I

3:58:50 > 3:58:49say, for parties. `` four parties. You can see pockets of colour, where

3:58:50 > 3:58:49we are getting results. Still, there is an awful lot of grey to fill in.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Let's have a look at the key wards we have been analysing. They give us

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a sense of which way the parties are moving. You can see here. There is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49high score for Labour. A lot of these key wards are Labour tinted.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour. 26% for the Conservatives. 17% for UKIP. 12% for the Lib Dems.

3:58:50 > 3:58:494% for the Greens and the others are at the end. The figures make sense

3:58:50 > 3:58:49if I give you a sense of change. Let me show you how the key wards are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49moving. Whether the parties are moving forwards or backwards. Let's

3:58:50 > 3:58:49show you the change on 2010. General election year, bad year for Labour.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49They are up 4%. Not a huge amount on 2010. Conservatives are down 6% in a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49year when they couldn't win an outright majority. UKIP are up 6%.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Lib Dems are down 13. `` up 16%. As far as Labour go, since 2010, no

3:58:50 > 3:58:49progress. It is the UKIP column that stands out. By 2012, Labour were

3:58:50 > 3:58:49making advances. The economy was in a bad way and they registered a much

3:58:50 > 3:58:49more effective performance at the local election. They paid a price,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49because we compare it with 2012 and you can see that they are down 9% on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49how they were doing in 2012, two years ago. They are going

3:58:50 > 3:58:49backwards. The Conservatives are down 1% on 2012. 13% up for UKIP,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49again, remarkable. The Lib Dems are down 2% and 2012 was a bad year for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49them anyway so they have gone down on that. The Greens are roughly

3:58:50 > 3:58:49where they were. Let me show you a graph that will put this back to the

3:58:50 > 3:58:491990s. We mentioned the trajectory of politics being that if you are in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49power nationally, you get punished locally and this tells the story.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Look at Labour in 1996, they had more than 10,000 counsellors, a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49record breaking number with Tony Blair in opposition. Then the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49numbers get whittled away because local elections are used to punish

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the government, even though Tony Blair was being re`elected

3:58:50 > 3:58:49nationally. You can see Labour's number coming down and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives become the leading party in terms of the number of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49councillors. They reach 9500, which is the peak in 2010 for them and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49they win the election. We end up at the end of the graph. I will focus

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on one figure. The Lib Dems down here. 2576. There is no recovery in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49prospect as far as we can see. This was the lowest they have ever had.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49It may go lower tonight. It is looking very bleak for the Lib Dems.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Mathematically it is possible for the Labour's line to cross the blue

3:58:50 > 3:58:49line. Tactically though, it is not likely. Very unlikely. You will see

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Conservatives almost certainly with more counsellors than any other

3:58:50 > 3:58:49party. Listening patiently to that, Patrick Diamond, former Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49adviser on the left of the screen. He is from a policy network think

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tank. And, Philip Davies, Conservative MP in Leeds tonight. In

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Q4 waiting and listening to that. Rather uncomfortable. `` thank you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for waiting. Can I start with you, Patrick Diamond? What should Labour

3:58:50 > 3:58:49do now? The first thing is not to panic. It is early days. We will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49draw further conclusions as more results come through nationally and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in particular from London. There are two trends which are apparent, which

3:58:50 > 3:58:49labour needs to deal with. It appears to have lost a significant

3:58:50 > 3:58:49share of its vote with traditional strongholds in the north of England

3:58:50 > 3:58:49particularly to UKIP. That is a concerted needs to with. In terms of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49winning a convincing majority at the next general election, Labour needs

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to think about the south of England. They aren't making the progress they

3:58:50 > 3:58:49should be at this stage of the Parliament. Where would you attack

3:58:50 > 3:58:49this problem? You have your policies and your leader. Would you want to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49see any alteration in the attitudes or policies or the attitudes of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49leadership or the policies he is pursuing? The general election will

3:58:50 > 3:58:49be determined by ideas and by which party seems to have the most

3:58:50 > 3:58:49credible policy prospectus. The work we need to do between now and the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49general election is ensure we have the most credible economic policy

3:58:50 > 3:58:49offer. That means addressing fiscal policy, how much we borrow, taxation

3:58:50 > 3:58:49policy and so forth. And, addressing growth and jobs. Crucially, it means

3:58:50 > 3:58:49addressing the question of time. Labour is telling a story about the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49economy which is attacking the failings of the coalition

3:58:50 > 3:58:49government's record which is understandable in relation to issues

3:58:50 > 3:58:49like the cost of living crisis, which Ed Miliband talks about.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour needs to tell a more upbeat story about the economy going

3:58:50 > 3:58:49forward. About the potential to create more jobs in the UK. About

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the potential to raise wages and living standards. We need to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49articulate the politics of aspiration and criticise the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49failings of the coalition government's performance. You make

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it sound as though the idea of just the cost of living as an issue. When

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you tick off little changes that you make. Freezing this and holding

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that. It is not a big or grand enough strategy for the general

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election in one year's time. In my right? I would agree with that as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you have expressed it. Some of the policies that have been announced,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49like the energy price freeze, they have struck a chord with the public.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour needs to offer more than that. It has to offer an account as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to how it would govern the economy in a period when people are worried

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about the economic situation only five or six years on from the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49financial crisis. Additionally, we need to tell the story of how we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49will develop the industry, bring more jobs to the UK, promote private

3:58:50 > 3:58:49sector competitiveness and insure good public`sector performers. These

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are questions we need to address and have convincing answers on before we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49go to the general election campaign `` performance. White what about the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49problem you have about the ? The debate goes back to questions of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49personality. `` about the leader? The fundamental issue for labour is,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49does it have a credible governing prospectus? Is Ed Miliband goes into

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the election telling a confident story about how he will manage the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49economy going forward `` if Ed Miliband. About how he would ensure

3:58:50 > 3:58:49future growth and how he and Ed Balls would govern through a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49credible fiscal and monetary policy, there is no reason why he

3:58:50 > 3:58:49cannot win. You have to begin with ideas and with having the right

3:58:50 > 3:58:49policy programme to offer. Perhaps you could see there and listen to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Philip Davies who joins us from Leeds. Vista Davies, what would you

3:58:50 > 3:58:49like to see happen now in the face of this, I suppose it can only be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49called a UKIP onslaught, on all three parties, but among them the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives. `` Mr Davies. It's a pity we got ourselves into this

3:58:50 > 3:58:49state in the first place, to be honest. But we have to win people

3:58:50 > 3:58:49back. Some of my close friends and colleagues in Parliament were

3:58:50 > 3:58:49earlier talking about a pact would UKIP. One thing that Nigel Farage

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and David Cameron agree on is that they will not be won. We have to win

3:58:50 > 3:58:49back those Conservative voters we have lost in recent years to UKIP.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49We have one year in which to do it. How do you go about doing that? Part

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of it is about the political message, I think Nigel Farage is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49authentic when he speaks his mind and speaks up for what he believes

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in. When he is confident in what he believes in, it resonates with the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49public. We need more of that. Too often we have seemed ashamed of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49being Conservatives. If you speak your mind up in Parliament as a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49conservative it is the way to guarantee you will end up on the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49backbenches and stay there. The way to get promoted in the Conservative

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Party is to say as little as possible and not draw any attention

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to what you are saying. We have to change that sort of nature of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49politics. We had to engage in the issues like immigration, the EU, and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people sort of saying that the EU is not important. The reason people are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49so concerned about immigration is because of the unlimited people who

3:58:50 > 3:58:49can come into the country from the EU. So you can't separate the EU and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49immigration out as two separate issues. They are the same issue. And

3:58:50 > 3:58:49things like overseas aid, where you have all three of the main political

3:58:50 > 3:58:49parties saying we should keep increasing the overseas aid Budget.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Actually, the vast majority of the public don't think that. UKIP are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tapping into those things, where politics is a long way from public

3:58:50 > 3:58:49opinion. Can you turn a smoother man into a Nigel Farage with a pint in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49his hand? This is not about David Cameron as a person. I don't agree

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with him on a number of things. But as a leader he has a lot of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49qualities. As a person he has a lot of qualities. He listens to people.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I find him to be incredibly down to earth. He is one of the least stuck

3:58:50 > 3:58:49up people I have ever met. There is nothing wrong with David Cameron as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49a person. I disagree with his policies on a few areas but don't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have a problem with him personally. What about UKIP in London? They are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not hacking it in London. They are not a threat in London. No, well,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49London can look after it self. I am more concerned with West Yorkshire

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and Yorkshire. All of those battleground seats. Places like West

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Yorkshire are one of the key battleground areas that we need to

3:58:50 > 3:58:49win to form a majority government. Would you like the coalition to come

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to an end? Yes, I never wanted a coalition in the first place. So on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that bassist yes. I would like it to come to an end, but that is not

3:58:50 > 3:58:49going to happen. So there is no point dreaming about things that are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not going to happen. `` on that basis. There will be a question of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about how to win people back. People's political ties are weaker

3:58:50 > 3:58:49than they have ever been. Politics is getting more local. There are

3:58:50 > 3:58:49opportunities for us to win in the seats we need to win if we start

3:58:50 > 3:58:49delivering what we have promised. We could be on for a long wait. Thank

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you very much. Do you want to just comment on that before we go?

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Patrick? Well, it seems clear that the Conservatives have a massive

3:58:50 > 3:58:49problem. They are losing significant sections of their support to UKIP.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49As others have said on this programme this evening, the truth is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that UKIP has presented a challenge to the whole political

3:58:50 > 3:58:49establishment. I think as Nick Robinson has a ready set on the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49programme, it is unclear how any of the major political parties should

3:58:50 > 3:58:49precisely deal with that challenge. The one thing I would say though, is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in conclusion, we should not do on the Labour side, try and mimic

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP's populism. We shouldn't be supporting policies on leaving the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49EU which are unrealistic and do nothing to build public trust in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49politics. We have to continue articulate credible and realistic

3:58:50 > 3:58:49policies that the public can have confidence in. That is the only way

3:58:50 > 3:58:49to win and govern. You do have a problem. As was acknowledged, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49character of Nigel Farage seems to appeal to people in a way that your

3:58:50 > 3:58:49leader and the Tory party leader don't. Don't quite feel, I suppose

3:58:50 > 3:58:49would be the proper grammar. There is an issue about the persona, the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49personality, the view the public has of the political class in Britain

3:58:50 > 3:58:49today. It would be absolutely silly to ignore it. Nigel Farage has

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tapped into a wave of public sentiment which is dissatisfied with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the kind of leadership which our political class offers. All the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49political parties need to think firstly about how they can bring

3:58:50 > 3:58:49people from more diverse backgrounds including working`class backgrounds

3:58:50 > 3:58:49into politics. And they also need to think about how can offer credible

3:58:50 > 3:58:49political leadership. To you agree with that? I think that Ed Miliband

3:58:50 > 3:58:49would not know a member of the working classes if he tripped over

3:58:50 > 3:58:49one. It is one reason why so many working class people are voting for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP. There are many people in working`class areas in the north who

3:58:50 > 3:58:49unfortunately would not vote conservative for historical reasons,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49and they feel attracted to UKIP because they are talking that kind

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of language. I think Labour have a big problem with their working`class

3:58:50 > 3:58:49supporters, because actually, the Labour Party has been hijacked by

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the sort of metropolitan elite in London, the Ed Miliband of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49world, who have no idea of out working class communities in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49north. What about David Cameron, they can't imagine having a pint in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the pub with, as against Nigel Farage, and they absolutely can? I'm

3:58:50 > 3:58:49sure that's absolutely true for a lot of people. Nigel Farage is a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49very charismatic politician. I congratulate him on the success that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP have had in these elections. No doubt they will continue to have. He

3:58:50 > 3:58:49has stuck to his guns can do a lot of fire from the establishments over

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the last few weeks. Full marks to him for that. But Nigel Farage's

3:58:50 > 3:58:49ambition at the next election, as I understand it, the general election,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is to win one seat. That is what he will be judged on. He acknowledged

3:58:50 > 3:58:49early this week that it is idiotic think they can possibly win the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49general election. So we have to make it clear to people that at the next

3:58:50 > 3:58:49election, actually, it's about whether you have a Conservative

3:58:50 > 3:58:49government or Labour government, David Cameron or Ed Miliband.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Whatever my disagreements might be with David Cameron, he is a dam site

3:58:50 > 3:58:49that are then Ed Miliband. Thank you very much indeed. `` damn sight.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour have made net gains. Conservatives are down 64. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49headline figure we keep referring to are these UKIP aims here. The Lib

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Dems, look at that. They are down 21. That is nearly half of their

3:58:50 > 3:58:49councillors. We have had some gains for the independents. Let's have a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49look at the others. I am going to take you to the board we started

3:58:50 > 3:58:49with at the beginning of the night, because we have had some of these

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results in. These are the Labour councils. And if I show you what we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have in, why am I focusing on Harlow? They are important at a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Parliamentary level. A lot of tight margins in these sorts of places.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49This is where we are now. They have been held by Labour so no worries

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for the party there. UKIP on six. Let's see what happened overnight.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49You can see those gains much more clearly. They have gained for

3:58:50 > 3:58:49councillors tonight. Conservatives have lost. Let's have a look at

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Harlow again. A tight margin at Westminster level. Labour on 17 and

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Conservatives 11. This is gained by the Conservatives in 2010. Don't

3:58:50 > 3:58:49forget UKIP coming in there on five councillors. Right on the air, just

3:58:50 > 3:58:49heading into Essex there. `` right on the edge. That may explain why we

3:58:50 > 3:58:49see the UKIP trajectory there. Hastings and Lincoln for Labour as

3:58:50 > 3:58:49well. That looks a fairly simple stark result. But watch what happens

3:58:50 > 3:58:49if I take you into the share, even in places where UKIP is not actually

3:58:50 > 3:58:49taking council seat. It is still getting a pretty powerful percentage

3:58:50 > 3:58:49share of the vote. UKIP on 23%. They are now in third place, in front of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the Lib Dems. Thank you very much. Let's just quickly catch up with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49another couple of places and then we will finish for tonight. Patrick

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Burns is in Birmingham. What is going on in the middle of the night?

3:58:50 > 3:58:49I think David, the key point is that these UKIP surge we are talking

3:58:50 > 3:58:49about everywhere, the damage it is causing to the larger parties, is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49certainly not confined to the Conservatives. In fact, if we do

3:58:50 > 3:58:49what we are always told not to do and look at these council results

3:58:50 > 3:58:49through the PRISM of the general election, and think of all those

3:58:50 > 3:58:49famous Midlands marginal seats, think of Tamworth, which was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49definitely on the Labour hit list tonight, Conservatives remain in

3:58:50 > 3:58:49control, partly because of the UKIP factor there. Three gains for UKIP

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in another target seat. Labour had hoped to gain control of the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49council, the Conservative marginal parliament, and then we have the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP factor holding Labour back even in Birmingham, in Northfield, which

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is currently a parliamentary seat with a Labour majority of 3000 plus.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives are convinced that after tonight's showing they will be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49in a position in the general election to capture that. So the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49UKIP factor has a variegated effect from one place to another. Thank

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you, we will hear from you tomorrow. Tim is in Croydon. I don't have an

3:58:50 > 3:58:49inkling. I don't think the people here do either. It is a close one. A

3:58:50 > 3:58:49classic divided borough. Affluent south, it comes down to a narrow

3:58:50 > 3:58:49strip. They need a swing of four or 6%. It is hard to tell, and there

3:58:50 > 3:58:49are lots of factors at play. Labour's vote was flattened in 2010

3:58:50 > 3:58:49because there was turned out at the general election. By the opposite

3:58:50 > 3:58:49token, polling would indicate that this is exactly the kind seat that

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour would expect to win. It is indeed one of their top targets. It

3:58:50 > 3:58:49also, I think, will end up being a also, I think, will end up being a

3:58:50 > 3:58:49really good barometer of whether there is a kind of UKIP progress of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49any meaningful description in London. Thank you very much indeed.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49We just have a minute to some up what has happened. We will be back

3:58:50 > 3:58:49tomorrow with more. What do we have so far? The big story outside London

3:58:50 > 3:58:49is a quite remarkable UKIP performance. Certainly more or less

3:58:50 > 3:58:49on a part with the kind of performance we have seen in last

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you's elections. We are seeing gains beyond what we are expecting. `` on

3:58:50 > 3:58:49par. We have yet to see exactly how bad it is going to be. The

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Conservatives will lose ground and Labour will not make the kind of

3:58:50 > 3:58:49progress they would really like to make. In terms of numbers of seats,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49it is not as good as Labour would like to see. Lots more to come

3:58:50 > 3:58:49through tomorrow. A lot more tomorrow, only about half the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49results we have seen so far. The big parties were preparing themselves

3:58:50 > 3:58:49for miserable results on Sunday in the European elections. Labour was

3:58:50 > 3:58:49hoping they would get a little bit of an advantage on the story

3:58:50 > 3:58:49overnight. UKIP have the story. The headlines are bad for Labour in the

3:58:50 > 3:58:49morning papers, written of course before many results were in. That is

3:58:50 > 3:58:49not good them psychologically. They will go into Friday and into

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Saturday feeling on the back foot, as if UKIP are once again the tale

3:58:50 > 3:58:49of success. But surely, they must of success. But surely, they must

3:58:50 > 3:58:49have suspected this would happen. This is what we will see. Already,

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Labour are counting up the actual votes in Swindon, a place with a can

3:58:50 > 3:58:49win, and say they would have won the Parliamentary seat. They will tell

3:58:50 > 3:58:49you that underneath these stories, are stories of success. And then

3:58:50 > 3:58:49there will be the shock no doubt of what happens on Sunday when we get

3:58:50 > 3:58:49the European results. Sunday will be the great drama, that is when Nigel

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Farage can really perform. The place he expects to win. Thank you very

3:58:50 > 3:58:49much indeed. Thank you all for coming in. And playing your part.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Emily will be back tomorrow, Jeremy will be back tomorrow. You will be

3:58:50 > 3:58:49back tomorrow. Will you not? I may be in Westminster? 36 declared, only

3:58:50 > 3:58:49125 to come. So come back and join us again. That is all for tonight.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Vote 2014 will be back at midday. BBC Two and BBC News Channel, with

3:58:50 > 3:58:49more analysis of the local election results. Rolling until midday.

3:58:50 > 3:58:49Goodbye. The latest headlines: Widespread

3:58:50 > 3:58:49international condemnation at the military takeover in Thailand. John

3:58:50 > 3:58:50Kerry has threatened