:00:32. > :00:36.you were with us last night. If you were not, welcome to the BBC's
:00:37. > :00:41.election centre. We have now had roughly half of the results of this
:00:42. > :00:46.year's local elections. There appears to have been a political
:00:47. > :00:51.earthquake in England. The three main political parties have now
:00:52. > :00:56.become four. UKIP have picked up seats everywhere from Essex to
:00:57. > :01:00.Bristol, Portsmouth to Rotherham. They had much less success in London
:01:01. > :01:07.but no one is denying that this has been very night. Everyone else looks
:01:08. > :01:09.pretty disappointed. David Cameron's Conservatives picked up
:01:10. > :01:16.Kingston from the Liberal Democrats. They lost overall control pleasers
:01:17. > :01:22.like Peterborough, Basildon, Brentwood, Maidstone, Hammersmith.
:01:23. > :01:26.For the Lib Dems, even worse. They lost around one third of the seats
:01:27. > :01:30.they were defending last night. It looks like the party is heading for
:01:31. > :01:34.another overall poor performance. Labour gained some council seats but
:01:35. > :01:39.not as many as Ed Miliband would have wanted. With just one year
:01:40. > :01:46.until the general election. The party won Councils like Cambridge
:01:47. > :01:52.and Hammersmith from the Tories but they lost the wreck. He said Labour
:01:53. > :02:01.was on its way to years ago when they won are. And Labour, like
:02:02. > :02:05.everyone else, lost ground to UKIP. This afternoon, the inverse studio,
:02:06. > :02:13.we will take in the results as they come. We have enough, Newcastle,
:02:14. > :02:15.important places. We will see whether the UKIP juggernaut
:02:16. > :02:23.continues right through the afternoon. Professor John Curtis
:02:24. > :02:27.will analyse the data and work out who has been hit hardest by this new
:02:28. > :02:32.development in English politics. Joining us we have our chief
:02:33. > :02:38.political correspondent Norman Smith and a panel of senior MPs from
:02:39. > :02:42.Westminster. We want to talk to them not just about what their parties
:02:43. > :02:46.can do but about the disaffection with the political class and
:02:47. > :02:56.politics we have been hearing as an explanation as to why UKIP have done
:02:57. > :03:04.well. First, Emily has watched the results come in through the night.
:03:05. > :03:13.We are now in a system of four party politics. Labour have gained nearly
:03:14. > :03:17.130 tonight but not as many as they would have liked. The Lib Dems have
:03:18. > :03:23.proportionally taken a much bigger hit than the Conservatives. UKIP are
:03:24. > :03:28.up 92 councillors from pretty much a standing start. There are
:03:29. > :03:34.interesting regional variations which we will come onto later.
:03:35. > :03:47.Nearly half way there. Jeremy Vine is with his giant map.
:03:48. > :03:51.It seems only 24 hours ago it was painted in these colours but it is
:03:52. > :04:01.changing as the results come in. We have around half the results. Labour
:04:02. > :04:12.in red. The first sign of trouble for Labour was Tamworth. Councils
:04:13. > :04:16.have gone grey in Essex, meaning no overall control because UKIP stopped
:04:17. > :04:20.the Conservatives taking them back. If you're looking for the Lib Dems,
:04:21. > :04:32.they are hard to spot. The first sign is here in South London in
:04:33. > :04:38.Sutton. Before we do that, let's catch up
:04:39. > :05:05.with the news and then we will be back.
:05:06. > :05:17.For some reason, we can't hear the news. Forgive us. Let's come
:05:18. > :05:33.straight to your politicians. It has been a grisly night for you. Justin
:05:34. > :05:36.Greening. It looks like we will lose some councillors over the next few
:05:37. > :05:40.hours but there are places we have hours but there are places we have
:05:41. > :05:46.made gains, like Tamworth. Labour have not done as well as they
:05:47. > :05:52.expected. If you look at what is really coming out of the results
:05:53. > :05:56.today and yesterday, it is the emergence of UKIP. I think we need
:05:57. > :06:05.to make sure we understand what is behind the votes people are casting.
:06:06. > :06:10.And it was the European election so it is understandable UKIP got their
:06:11. > :06:17.vote out. Why do you not just embrace them like some of your
:06:18. > :06:23.backbenchers suggested? Then you'll all your people back. We have taken
:06:24. > :06:29.on a lot of issues that they been talking about. Issues about clamping
:06:30. > :06:32.down on welfare and making sure it is a system which rewards people for
:06:33. > :06:40.getting back into work. Tackling immigration. And that is why they
:06:41. > :06:49.have all gone away? Why don't you embrace UKIP and not just coax the
:06:50. > :06:58.voters back? We want to reach out to voters and not a party like UKIP. We
:06:59. > :07:07.are not going to be doing any pacts with them. What is important is that
:07:08. > :07:16.we actually look at the issues being raised which matter to people. Those
:07:17. > :07:20.are issues of Europe and the European union and there is only one
:07:21. > :07:21.party which is going to be able to deliver the referendum everyone
:07:22. > :07:26.wants. party which is going to be able to
:07:27. > :07:32.We have been clear we will have a referendum on Europe if we are a
:07:33. > :07:35.majority government. We will clamp down on welfare and make sure it
:07:36. > :07:45.pays people to get back into work. We have come down on immigration and
:07:46. > :07:49.made it fairer. Clearly, we need to continue and make sure we have
:07:50. > :07:57.answers to the sort of questions UKIP voters are asking. Vince Cable,
:07:58. > :08:03.this is your comeuppance for going into the coalition in the first
:08:04. > :08:08.place. It was the right thing to do but clearly there is a price to pay.
:08:09. > :08:18.It has been disappointing for all of us. Our results were not great but
:08:19. > :08:26.it has been mixed. We have done well in Eastleigh, Sutton, Maidstone. We
:08:27. > :08:33.have suffered for being part of the coalition. Have you lost your role
:08:34. > :08:40.as the party of protest, the place where young people went because your
:08:41. > :08:48.ideas inspired them? Everyone who is disillusioned now goes to UKIP. We
:08:49. > :08:56.have certainly lost the support of people who voted simply as a
:08:57. > :09:03.protest. I do not share your view that this taps into the general
:09:04. > :09:06.election. A lot of people are very angry because of the price they have
:09:07. > :09:10.paid for this very deep slump which individual people are not
:09:11. > :09:20.responsible for and they are taking it out on the established parties,
:09:21. > :09:24.including mine. Sadiq Khan, Labour appears to have gone backwards in
:09:25. > :09:32.some places. I want to put to you a quote from The Times. It is from a
:09:33. > :09:38.senior frontbencher. The problem is that Ed Miliband looks weird, sounds
:09:39. > :09:45.weird and is weird. He isn't hacking it because people aren't warming to
:09:46. > :09:54.him. Newsflash, the Times doesn't like the Labour leader. Who is the
:09:55. > :09:59.quotation from? It is anonymous. UKIP did very well last night. We
:10:00. > :10:06.should not distract from their achievement as Justine Greening
:10:07. > :10:12.tried to do. Where did Labour do well last night? In the areas where
:10:13. > :10:21.we need to win seats in the general election. In Hammersmith and Fulham
:10:22. > :10:43.and tooting, we went forward. In Redbridge, Croydon, Haverhill ``
:10:44. > :10:59.Harrow. In Cambridge, Peterborough, Lincoln, we did well. You have 132
:11:00. > :11:03.games at the moment and the basic prediction was that you needed some
:11:04. > :11:05.around 400 to show the kind of momentum for a general election that
:11:06. > :11:15.an opposition party would usually show. You just aren't hacking it. In
:11:16. > :11:21.2010, we got the second worst result in our history since universal
:11:22. > :11:24.suffrage. History tells you that when a party loses a general
:11:25. > :11:37.election, it takes a long time to be competitive. Within four years we
:11:38. > :11:40.are competitive. We are making progress in the right parts of the
:11:41. > :11:49.country where we need to make progress to win next year. Here is
:11:50. > :11:57.Nigel Farage at his press conference. UKIP took enough
:11:58. > :12:06.councillors in Thurrock to deny overall control to Labour. I think
:12:07. > :12:17.our message resonated and also constituencies like this, UKIP takes
:12:18. > :12:25.votes from everybody. We are picking up Tory votes, Labour votes. I think
:12:26. > :12:38.you will find a lot of people who voted for UKIP probably voted one
:12:39. > :12:41.way for 20 years. One of your spokespeople said you didn't do well
:12:42. > :12:48.in London because people are cultured and educated and young. He
:12:49. > :12:57.was our spokesperson in Manchester. I have no idea who said that.
:12:58. > :13:02.Certainly, London is a younger demographic but the real reason we
:13:03. > :13:05.are not as strong in London is that political parties rely heavily on
:13:06. > :13:08.voluntary structure and our voluntary structure in London is
:13:09. > :13:15.behind the rest of the country, 12`18 months behind. There is no
:13:16. > :13:26.reason why in many parts of London we can't do better next year. What
:13:27. > :13:31.we always said was what we have to do is get areas where we have
:13:32. > :13:38.clusters of councillors on a district level or county level and
:13:39. > :13:48.they will become target seats in 2015 for the general election. Is it
:13:49. > :13:51.more than a protest vote? The political parties have been
:13:52. > :14:03.comforting themselves with that. They said it after 2009, Eastleigh,
:14:04. > :14:15.well, it looks like a pretty permanent protest vote. Ask me after
:14:16. > :14:24.I have been there. Do you want to be the MP in this area that is not for
:14:25. > :14:31.me to do. The public are receptive but we have good voluntary local
:14:32. > :14:36.structures here. I thought if I put myself up in Essex to stand, the
:14:37. > :14:48.local UKIP branch would reject me on the basis I wasn't one of them. I
:14:49. > :14:54.have never mentioned a number. The question is how many seats will
:14:55. > :14:58.retard it. We do not have the data from these results. We will sit down
:14:59. > :15:03.and think about it over the next few but we will buy the summer recess
:15:04. > :15:13.have worked out what our target seat will be and put our best candidates
:15:14. > :15:18.and our resources behind them. Do you think Nigel Farage is in with a
:15:19. > :15:24.chance of winning the number of seats, one or two or 10 at a general
:15:25. > :15:28.election? Before these results people are talking about Farage
:15:29. > :15:33.maybe winning 10 seats. That's their optimistic version. I wouldn't be
:15:34. > :15:37.surprised if they target more. Their strategy is to borrow from the
:15:38. > :15:41.Liberal Democrats. The Paddy Ashdown strategy. Work out where you are
:15:42. > :15:46.strong and throw everything at those seats. What we learnt from Thurrock
:15:47. > :15:52.is their ability to damage the established parties. Thurrock is a
:15:53. > :15:56.terrible loss for Labour. It is an emblematic southern seat which they
:15:57. > :16:00.hailed themselves two years ago as evidence they were breaking through
:16:01. > :16:03.into the south. Now UKIP's deprived them of that seat. That's happening
:16:04. > :16:09.all over the country to all the parties. You kip took from everyone.
:16:10. > :16:13.What I think it means is not they are going to sweep to victory at the
:16:14. > :16:16.general election but this is a storm a long time coming at Westminster.
:16:17. > :16:21.There's been a level of disenchantment, a level of
:16:22. > :16:24.resentment andalenation which has been bubbling along for years. Now
:16:25. > :16:29.it has broken. I think the challenge for the three many parties is how do
:16:30. > :16:33.they respond. At the moment, my sense is they are really strapping
:16:34. > :16:41.their heads and wondering what do they do. We've heard calls for the
:16:42. > :16:45.Tories to do a pact with UKIP. That's already been squashed as not
:16:46. > :16:49.a runner. Other suggestions Labour should adopt a more aggressive
:16:50. > :16:56.approach with UKIP. Get stuck in, call him aryist. That is not Ed
:16:57. > :16:59.Miliband's approach. You sense for the established main parties it is
:17:00. > :17:03.not a threat to their seats but a threat to their open being. What
:17:04. > :17:05.they are about. This is a very strong message from the great
:17:06. > :17:11.British public to the established parties about what they don't like
:17:12. > :17:16.about politics. Norman, who is most under threat and who is least under
:17:17. > :17:25.threat from UKIP? Labour have an in`built advantage at a general
:17:26. > :17:29.election. Despite the fact they beat Labour in Thurrock. They take most
:17:30. > :17:34.of their support from the Conservatives. But I don't think it
:17:35. > :17:38.comes down to seats. It is more a culture thing. How do the parties
:17:39. > :17:43.engage with the public. It is as basic as that. All the way back to
:17:44. > :17:50.the expenses scandal and beyond. Let's have some results from Emily.
:17:51. > :17:55.These are the results in Hong done. Interesting to hear how Nigel Farage
:17:56. > :18:01.says UKIP is struggling in London. They don't have the foot soldiers.
:18:02. > :18:06.If you look, they've made 92 gains in England. Just 3 in London. The
:18:07. > :18:13.part of the country they are least strong in. Labour have made a huge
:18:14. > :18:19.proportion of their gains here. They've added 79 councillors. From
:18:20. > :18:23.this list, these are their gains. They are predominately in London.
:18:24. > :18:27.Croydon they took easily from the Conservatives. A two`horse race
:18:28. > :18:32.overnight. They managed to push the Conservatives down. That drop has
:18:33. > :18:37.landed them with Croydon. Redbridge, Murton, this one they took. They
:18:38. > :18:42.will be pleased with that from overall control. Overnight, more
:18:43. > :18:46.complicated picture. You'd resident's associations and the
:18:47. > :18:51.rest. Labour up. Conservatives down. This one, outside of London, this is
:18:52. > :18:56.their biggest gain of the night. This is not a UKIP story. When you
:18:57. > :19:00.look at that spread, a solid university town. They've been
:19:01. > :19:06.pushing at the Liberal Democrat vote here. Labour up 7, Liberal Democrats
:19:07. > :19:10.down 7. If I show you back over the last four years, this is an
:19:11. > :19:14.electoral cycle. They vote in thirds. You can see that direction
:19:15. > :19:18.of travel for Labour and the Liberal Democrats pushing the Liberal
:19:19. > :19:24.Democrats down since possibly that tuition fees failure of a policy for
:19:25. > :19:29.the Liberal Democrats. Down 15 for Liberal Democrats. Cambridge the
:19:30. > :19:34.only place outside London they picked up. But solid in the
:19:35. > :19:39.south`east. Let's go to explore more about
:19:40. > :19:43.London. Tim Donovan, the London Political Editor. He's in Barnet.
:19:44. > :19:51.Tell us about what's been happening in London as far as you've seen it.
:19:52. > :19:57.I think this looks like, from my calculations, this is the best
:19:58. > :20:02.performance that Labour have had in London since 1998. I think they've
:20:03. > :20:08.gained control of 19 councils. It is possible, by the end of today, they
:20:09. > :20:12.could equal their record, which was back in 1971 when they had control
:20:13. > :20:18.of 21 councils. That would require them to do something in Tower
:20:19. > :20:22.Hamlets later this evening and to win back Harrow where there was a
:20:23. > :20:27.split in the Labour group a few months ago so there has been no
:20:28. > :20:35.overall control. Where they to win Barnet here, they would take them to
:20:36. > :20:40.22. Here in Barnet it may show the limit of their advances. They need
:20:41. > :20:42.to gain 10 seats here. It is not immediately obvious talking to
:20:43. > :20:53.Labour and Tories where that will happen. But one key area will be the
:20:54. > :20:57.south`east of burrow where `` burrough where there have been three
:20:58. > :21:01.Liberal Democrat councillors. That will be a key indicator. It is
:21:02. > :21:06.suspected the Liberal Democrats will lose their place on the council.
:21:07. > :21:12.That may be the platform for a Labour resurgence. It is not
:21:13. > :21:18.immediately clear they will do this. The Hammersmith and Fulham count was
:21:19. > :21:22.spectacular. 11 Labour gains from the Conservatives straight? Everyone
:21:23. > :21:29.looking at that one has said it is remarkable and very few people were
:21:30. > :21:36.predicting it. The assumption had been Labour had got as far as they
:21:37. > :21:41.were going to in the process of del graphic change there `` demographic
:21:42. > :21:47.change. Labour thought they'd have a better chance here at Barnet. Why
:21:48. > :21:55.did that happen? This is an awe authoritiy that cut council tax,
:21:56. > :22:00.achieved a reputation for municipal cost`cutting. Clearly under the
:22:01. > :22:04.surface there there have been unpopular developments. Clearly a
:22:05. > :22:10.great cambane over a local hospital. Issues about the lack of affordable
:22:11. > :22:15.housing. People affect theed by benefit changes `` people affected
:22:16. > :22:21.by benefit changes. Justine Greening. Why did you lose
:22:22. > :22:27.Hammersmith? Shah As the local member said Labour ran a
:22:28. > :22:30.disingenuous campaign which preyed on people's fierce about what would
:22:31. > :22:37.happen to their local hospital unfairly. It was a council that had
:22:38. > :22:42.cut tax. Been seen as very competent. Obviously, now, I think,
:22:43. > :22:46.hopefully, in the future, we'll be able to win Hammersmith and Fulham
:22:47. > :22:51.back. For the time being, it will be back in Labour hands. We'll expect
:22:52. > :22:56.to see council tax going up. Good, thank you. We can hear from the
:22:57. > :23:02.Prime Minister David Cameron. He's in Whitney a Oxfordshire. His first
:23:03. > :23:07.reaction to last night's results. How disappointed are you with last
:23:08. > :23:11.night's result? There's a very clear message from last night's elections.
:23:12. > :23:16.People want us to deliver. The economy is growing. We are creating
:23:17. > :23:20.jobs but we have to work harder and really deliver on issues that are
:23:21. > :23:24.frustrating people and frustrating me, like welfare reform,
:23:25. > :23:29.immigration, making sure people really benefit from this recovery.
:23:30. > :23:33.We'll work flat out to demonstrate we have the answers to help hard
:23:34. > :23:37.working people. Would you consider a pact with UKIP going into the next
:23:38. > :23:44.election or a coalition afterwards? We are the Conservative Party, we
:23:45. > :23:49.don't do pacts and deals. We are fighting for an all`out within at
:23:50. > :23:53.the next election. We lost some good councillors last night but our vote
:23:54. > :23:58.share was up from last year. We took a council off the Liberal Democrats
:23:59. > :24:01.in London in Kingston. We held councils like Swindon and dam worth
:24:02. > :24:06.which were Labour for many years before. I'm confidence `` Tamworth.
:24:07. > :24:12.I'm confident this is a base from which we can go forward and win.
:24:13. > :24:16.What about at local level? Our local councillors will make decisions how
:24:17. > :24:21.best to deliver look at services at low cost for local people. How big a
:24:22. > :24:26.blow was losing Hammersmith? It is one of your pet councils? We did
:24:27. > :24:30.lose some good councillors and good councils last night. That does
:24:31. > :24:35.happen when you're running the Government. I'm sorry for those who
:24:36. > :24:39.have lost their seats and the councils we've lost but our vote
:24:40. > :24:45.share went up compared with last year. We've more councillors than
:24:46. > :24:49.any other party in local government. We took description ton off the
:24:50. > :24:53.Liberal Democrats in London. We held councils, Swindon, Tamworth, many
:24:54. > :24:57.others that are or who have been Labour for many years. We've held
:24:58. > :25:02.them through this Government because we are providing good services at a
:25:03. > :25:08.low cost. Our Political Editor in the east
:25:09. > :25:14.Midlands at Amber scale valley in Derbyshire. John, we talked about an
:25:15. > :25:23.earthquake. Has there been one in your neck of the woods? What is
:25:24. > :25:30.interesting here, Amber Valley is in the middle of the Midlands. It has
:25:31. > :25:35.east Midlands towns like Ripley and Belper. All about 10 minutes drive
:25:36. > :25:39.off the M 1 heading north and south. What's interesting is the seats that
:25:40. > :25:46.Labour needed to win and the seats that the Conservatives needed to
:25:47. > :25:50.hold are in those Ripley and Bleper areas. The situation now in a
:25:51. > :25:53.council and parliamentary level which has swung from Labour to the
:25:54. > :26:00.Conservatives is Labour have taken those two key seats they needed to
:26:01. > :26:08.win in order to wrestle control from the Conservatives. Labour absolutely
:26:09. > :26:14.cock`a`hoop. The Labour Leader, Paul Jones, led a rendition of the red
:26:15. > :26:19.flag among his jubilant party workers. Stuart Bradford, who was
:26:20. > :26:25.the leaders of the council, the Conservative Leader for the last 14
:26:26. > :26:28.years, I asked him what lessons to the Conservatives need to learn here
:26:29. > :26:32.and what lessons does the Prime Minister need to learn. He said
:26:33. > :26:36.there weren't any particular lessons here. It was very much a local
:26:37. > :26:44.campaign. The Government had to stuck with its economic policy. In
:26:45. > :26:49.terms of UKIP, they have polled well in Amber Valley but not nearly as
:26:50. > :26:55.well as UKIP were talking about. And hoping to do much better in picking
:26:56. > :27:00.up a couple of seats in those former mining areas of these parts of the
:27:01. > :27:04.east Midlands. That hasn't happened. The Liberal Democrat vote hit the
:27:05. > :27:08.floor. There are few Liberal Democrat candidates who stood in
:27:09. > :27:14.this election who got anything above 90 votes. It is not their contest at
:27:15. > :27:18.all. What's also interesting, the Prime Minister chose Amber Valley to
:27:19. > :27:23.visit at the start of this election campaign. He had one of those town
:27:24. > :27:27.hall meetings with factory workers a few miles from here. Ed Miliband,
:27:28. > :27:31.who was due to visit earlier this week never made it in the end
:27:32. > :27:38.because of train delays at St Pancras. He had to go to Nottingham
:27:39. > :27:42.instead. But Labour here at Amber Valley, for the first thyme they are
:27:43. > :27:48.controlling this local authority in 14 years. Nigel Mills, the
:27:49. > :27:51.Conservative MP who won the seat from Labour in the General Election
:27:52. > :27:54.four years ago with the majority of 530 was one of the first
:27:55. > :27:58.Conservatives to leave the count this morning. He said also, like
:27:59. > :28:03.Stuart Bradford, that the Prime Minister needed to stick the course.
:28:04. > :28:09.John, thank you. Let's look at a few more figures,
:28:10. > :28:13.Jeremy, extrapolate from the results we've had what it means? Now we are
:28:14. > :28:20.getting the London results on our map. It is changing. We have two
:28:21. > :28:24.elections going on here. Inside London, we'll talk about in a
:28:25. > :28:24.moment. Let me show you the overall figure.
:28:25. > :28:26.London, we'll talk about in a moment. Let me show you the overall
:28:27. > :28:32.figure. If wee look at our key wards. These are the wards we
:28:33. > :28:35.analysed to get a sense of the political weather. You can see
:28:36. > :28:39.Labour winning this election on the basis of our key wards. Not by a
:28:40. > :28:44.huge amount. Nothing to write home about. 28% for the Conservatives in
:28:45. > :28:52.second place. Liberal Democrats on 16. UKIP on 15% and 6% for the
:28:53. > :28:56.Greens and 3% for the others. Those are the percentages we are left with
:28:57. > :29:00.after looking at key wards across the country, London and beyond.
:29:01. > :29:06.Let's have a look at change. Change is the key to how parties are doing.
:29:07. > :29:10.In 2010, the year of the General Election, the coalition won. Labour
:29:11. > :29:14.were doing badly. How have they increased their vote since Gordon
:29:15. > :29:19.Brown was leader? The answer is only by 4%. On the 2010 result.
:29:20. > :29:24.Conservatives down 6%. That's not good for them at all. Liberal
:29:25. > :29:31.Democrats down 13% on local election results in 2010. Pretty awful for
:29:32. > :29:38.them. And there's the sensational figures, 14% up for UKIP. The UKIP
:29:39. > :29:44.increase was higher before because we had not factored in London.
:29:45. > :29:49.Greens up a bit too. This is a comparison with 2012. This is more
:29:50. > :29:55.worrying from Labour's point of view. 2012, the Conservatives were
:29:56. > :30:00.in trouble from the backwash from the recession. You can see here
:30:01. > :30:04.Labour were 10% down on their position in 2012. They are moving
:30:05. > :30:08.backwards. No question about that. Conservatives were doing pretty
:30:09. > :30:13.badly in 2012. They are not moving forwards. Liberal Democrats down 2%.
:30:14. > :30:18.And again, that purple column, 11% up for UKIP. Greens up a bit as
:30:19. > :30:24.well. The 2012 comparison is a worrying one for Labour. It suggests
:30:25. > :30:27.they are going backwards. Where they can rejoice and celebrate is the
:30:28. > :30:31.capital city. This is the map of London. You can
:30:32. > :30:46.see the changes if I flash the gains. We have Croydon, Fulham,
:30:47. > :30:49.Hammersmith and Redbridge. What is interesting is if you have a look at
:30:50. > :31:01.a comparison between the votes in London and elsewhere. These are the
:31:02. > :31:06.changes in all key wards. Lib Dems doing badly, UKIP doing well. If you
:31:07. > :31:11.move to London, you can see this. There is not a huge difference.
:31:12. > :31:19.Labour are still just up a touch on 2010. But they are gaining seats and
:31:20. > :31:27.gaining councils. Lib Dems and conservatives are both down. What is
:31:28. > :31:32.helping Labour in London? We must come to this figure that UKIP are
:31:33. > :31:42.not storming it in London. They are up 7% but not causing the kind of
:31:43. > :31:43.trouble as elsewhere. Once we factor in the London results to the English
:31:44. > :31:53.council elections tonight, it looks a bit better for Labour.
:31:54. > :31:58.I think we can now be joined by Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor. Did
:31:59. > :32:03.you hear of the key figure that Labour is slipping backwards,
:32:04. > :32:11.regardless of where you are, from where you were in 2012? Is that
:32:12. > :32:16.rather disconcerting for you? That is the reality of this very strong
:32:17. > :32:22.UKIP vote we have seen right across the country. It is a challenge for
:32:23. > :32:26.all political parties. As Jeremy pointed out, since 2010, it has been
:32:27. > :32:31.disastrous for the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. We have made gains
:32:32. > :32:36.but not enough yet. The fundamental question will be do we want to
:32:37. > :32:43.change or more of the same in this country? These results show, and the
:32:44. > :32:49.UKIP fault says this, though Cameron and Osborne line to stick with them
:32:50. > :32:55.is not credible across the country. We have more work to do the sure we
:32:56. > :33:03.have the policies to deliver change. It is a big challenge for us and we
:33:04. > :33:08.can do better next year. But look at those Tory percentages. They are in
:33:09. > :33:14.real trouble. We must compete to show that unlike UKIP we are the
:33:15. > :33:19.party for change with real policies to make a difference. Were useful to
:33:20. > :33:27.wake up to the challenge UKIP opposed to Labour? Ken Livingstone
:33:28. > :33:31.just said so. I don't think that is quite right. Everybody is taken
:33:32. > :33:39.aback by quite how much they made gains across the country, partly
:33:40. > :33:44.from Labour. But where I am in Wakefield, the Tory voters
:33:45. > :33:53.collapsing the UKIP. The reality is this. UKIP reflects... Don't forget,
:33:54. > :33:58.on when people voted in the European elections. People want tough
:33:59. > :34:05.controls on immigration and reform in Europe. We have been making those
:34:06. > :34:09.arguments and we must do so more loudly over the next year. The
:34:10. > :34:14.Conservatives say there is no cost of living crisis and they have
:34:15. > :34:19.failed on immigration. Their party is divided and in chaos. For the
:34:20. > :34:23.next election, can we show that we have the policies and Ed Miliband's
:34:24. > :34:30.leadership to do that? I think we can. There are people in Labour who
:34:31. > :34:43.feel that you can't with Ed Miliband. They wonder why Labour is
:34:44. > :34:51.losing to UKIP in Sunderland, it's extraordinary. Good news for Labour
:34:52. > :34:58.in Ipswich, Peterborough, Hastings, Amber Valley. We are doing better
:34:59. > :35:02.than people expected us to do in southern seats but now there is a
:35:03. > :35:08.challenge in the North. Especially in areas where we are clearly the
:35:09. > :35:12.majority party in areas where you had a tight fight between the Tories
:35:13. > :35:18.and Labour, and people have gone to UKIP. In my area, people want to
:35:19. > :35:23.know that we will have tougher controls on immigration, that you
:35:24. > :35:30.won't be able to work here and send benefits back it up the country. ``
:35:31. > :35:38.out of the country. This is all happening in a context of David
:35:39. > :35:45.Cameron saying he would take immigration down the tens of
:35:46. > :35:48.thousands but hasn't. Labour can be credible on all of these issues in
:35:49. > :35:53.the general election fight. Cameron also said it would be an election
:35:54. > :35:58.that gave him the thumbs up on the economy. You think UKIP is winning
:35:59. > :36:03.votes from Labour because of immigration? They are winning votes
:36:04. > :36:09.from all parties because people feel angry that things are not working in
:36:10. > :36:16.a fair way for them. It could be energy prices, jobs, income, the way
:36:17. > :36:20.the banks have acted. But it is also that people think at the moment we
:36:21. > :36:24.do not have the right kind of border controls and immigration controls
:36:25. > :36:29.and they want reform in Europe. All of us must say it loudly and clearly
:36:30. > :36:37.that to walk away from Europe, which is Nigel Farage's policy, which
:36:38. > :36:42.would be reform. We must have tougher controls on borders and the
:36:43. > :36:47.way the labour market works, benefit rules, and controls on new countries
:36:48. > :36:53.joining Europe and working in our country. I think we can win those
:36:54. > :36:58.arguments. Members of the coalition are listening here in the studio. I
:36:59. > :37:04.would like to give them a chance to counter what you have said. The core
:37:05. > :37:09.issue we are trying to address is why have you done so well? We must
:37:10. > :37:14.understand that. It is a mixture of things. A general protest. Economic
:37:15. > :37:21.conditions have been tough although they are now approving. There is an
:37:22. > :37:29.anti`politician issue going back to expenses. This is common in Europe
:37:30. > :37:34.and other parts of the UK. Our leader, to give him credit, has
:37:35. > :37:40.taken those issues and tried to argue directly with UKIP. I think we
:37:41. > :37:46.have not got the results but he has gained respect for dealing with
:37:47. > :37:50.these issues. I don't think Labour is ever going to be remotely
:37:51. > :37:56.credible again as standing as a party that controls immigration. It
:37:57. > :38:01.quadrupled when they were in power. People feel they are not being
:38:02. > :38:06.listened to on Europe and they want to have their say and that is why we
:38:07. > :38:12.must all admit to having a referendum on Europe after the next
:38:13. > :38:15.election. At the moment, the Conservatives are the only party
:38:16. > :38:20.willing to do that. Will you now recognise that you have it wrong and
:38:21. > :38:25.that you need to commit to getting a referendum on Europe after the next
:38:26. > :38:30.election and will you support as putting a bill through parliament
:38:31. > :38:36.before the next election to guarantee the British public will
:38:37. > :38:40.have that referendum? It is a great irony to be challenged to match the
:38:41. > :38:47.policies of the Conservatives, which has been utterly trounced in these
:38:48. > :38:53.elections by UKIP. People do not believe what the Conservatives are
:38:54. > :38:56.promising. First of all, on your immigration point, you promised
:38:57. > :39:02.immigration into the tens of thousands. It is over 200,000. Your
:39:03. > :39:06.credibility collapse and you weakened our borders. We are saying
:39:07. > :39:12.we should get proper controls which work. In the next Parliament, we
:39:13. > :39:17.will have a referendum if there is any transfer of powers to Brussels.
:39:18. > :39:24.That is our guarantee. We do not think that is a likely outcome but
:39:25. > :39:29.if so we will have a referendum. Economically, promising a referendum
:39:30. > :39:33.in 2017, come what may, whatever negotiation, it will pit of
:39:34. > :39:38.investment and jobs and damage the country. People in our country don't
:39:39. > :39:46.believe you, which is why, across the country, they have not voted
:39:47. > :39:53.Conservatives, but UKIP. There is a Tory councillor in my constituency
:39:54. > :40:00.who will lose her job tonight. It is between Labour and UKIP because the
:40:01. > :40:08.Tory vote has collapsed to UKIP. I want to bring you the deputy leader
:40:09. > :40:13.of UKIP who is in Westminster. Nigel Farage says you have set the Fox in
:40:14. > :40:20.the hen house. Are you hearing them scattering in panic? I think we have
:40:21. > :40:27.had a pretty decent morning with just over a third of councils
:40:28. > :40:32.counted now. We set an internal target of getting 100 seats and I
:40:33. > :40:37.think we are on target to do better. There is a serious problem in this
:40:38. > :40:42.country, a disengagement between people and politicians at
:40:43. > :40:47.Westminster. Labour, for example, lost 5 million voters since 1997.
:40:48. > :40:51.These people are low hanging fruit for UKIP who are looking for
:40:52. > :41:02.something new and something which will give them opportunities. You
:41:03. > :41:07.see low hanging fruit and there is disengagement from politicians. If
:41:08. > :41:12.you are going to become a serious party at Westminster, you will
:41:13. > :41:22.become just like the other politicians at Westminster. If we
:41:23. > :41:26.want to get out of the EU, we must win seats at Westminster and that's
:41:27. > :41:31.why these elections are important. Over the past couple of years, UKIP
:41:32. > :41:37.has taken local elections seriously because we are following the Paddy
:41:38. > :41:45.Ashdown model to get into local councils first and creator
:41:46. > :41:51.bridgehead to target Westminster. You must have some policies first.
:41:52. > :42:01.You won't get elected by saying the electorate, none of the other
:42:02. > :42:10.parties. This has been about Europe and equally local elections. If you
:42:11. > :42:16.think Britain will be more free and strong outside Europe, we will put
:42:17. > :42:20.together our policy groups and come up with policies to be launched at
:42:21. > :42:26.the National conference in September. Actually, UKIP support
:42:27. > :42:37.seems to be from people who are opposed to immigration, not just
:42:38. > :42:40.Europe. UKIP support comes right across the board, whether it is
:42:41. > :42:47.people who are disenchanted with what has happened to immigration
:42:48. > :42:52.since 1997. Labour allowed 4 million people to come into the country and
:42:53. > :43:05.last year alone 212 people came here, equal to a city the size of
:43:06. > :43:08.Hull. What would you say the Ed Balls about his claim that Labour is
:43:09. > :43:16.on its way and has the answers on the economy and that the Tories
:43:17. > :43:23.failed to control immigration and labour will. When it comes to
:43:24. > :43:32.immigration, I think he is on the moonshine. The fact is, whilst we
:43:33. > :43:36.are in Europe, we cannot control who does and doesn't come to our
:43:37. > :43:39.country. We should have a points `based system like Australia whereby
:43:40. > :43:44.if you have the skills we need then you can come to work and it
:43:45. > :43:52.shouldn't matter where in the world you're from. If you are going to win
:43:53. > :43:55.the argument, you either win them within the European Union or you
:43:56. > :44:02.walk away. The problem with walking away, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Beck
:44:03. > :44:10.International companies will take jobs to other countries because we
:44:11. > :44:15.can't go it alone an hour on. You can have the mobility of labour,
:44:16. > :44:18.proper controls, border controls as well, controls on the way in which
:44:19. > :44:22.benefits are moved around the country and get the benefits of
:44:23. > :44:28.Europe but also the reform and controls. I think walking away is a
:44:29. > :44:32.disaster. What I say to UKIP is that in the next year what I want to do
:44:33. > :44:40.is sit down and properly debate the economy with George Osborne, Vince
:44:41. > :44:46.Cable and the UKIP spokesman on the economy will stop let's debate the
:44:47. > :44:52.details, and the NHS, and taxation. But where are their spokespeople?
:44:53. > :44:57.Where are their policies? Labour says we have policies for change.
:44:58. > :45:02.UKIP say they have a desire for change but other than walking out of
:45:03. > :45:08.Europe there are policies are a bit barmy. Let's have the debate and
:45:09. > :45:11.then the country can decide whether UKIP stands for the right kind of
:45:12. > :45:19.change or whether Labour can win the argument. Paul says you have to wait
:45:20. > :45:24.until the summer. Then you can have the debate. There will be a lot of
:45:25. > :45:28.scrutiny of this year's UKIP conference. UKIP have done well
:45:29. > :45:32.today. They are clearly touching a nerve. There is clearly a desire for
:45:33. > :45:36.change. The question for the country in a general election is who has the
:45:37. > :45:42.policies for that change. We know it is not the Tories or will bewrasse.
:45:43. > :45:47.Is it really UKIP. I want to ask Vince Cable something
:45:48. > :45:51.about this. This idea people are disaffected by politicians as a
:45:52. > :45:55.class and that's why they've gone to UKIP. Do you accept that? If it is
:45:56. > :46:00.true, is there anything you can do about it? It is part of the story.
:46:01. > :46:04.It is a question of cleaning up our act. Parliament's done a lot to do
:46:05. > :46:08.that. We're still dealing with the legacy problems before the last
:46:09. > :46:12.election. The real problem is what I mentioned earlier. We've been
:46:13. > :46:17.through the biggest economic crisis in our lifetime. A lot of people
:46:18. > :46:22.have been hurt. A lot of people see this due to forces beyond their
:46:23. > :46:26.control. In some cases they are looking for scapegoats which is why
:46:27. > :46:31.they look at the immigration issue. You have politics of identity. You
:46:32. > :46:35.see it in France, Scandinavia, ol donned and everywhere else. UKIP are
:46:36. > :46:41.muscling in on this combination of things. Hostility to foreigners,
:46:42. > :46:48.hostility to politicians and general anger about the crisis. What we have
:46:49. > :46:53.to do is making the patient case for sensible economic policies in a
:46:54. > :46:57.progressive environment on tax which is where we disagree with the
:46:58. > :47:02.Conservatives. We are now reconstructing the economy after
:47:03. > :47:09.this appalling crisis. The banging system's been rebuilt and reformed.
:47:10. > :47:14.In a year's time people will listen to those arguments. Let's look at
:47:15. > :47:19.this anger, as it was expressed, last night and in today's results.
:47:20. > :47:22.We've past the halfway mark on councils.
:47:23. > :47:26.We've had half of the councils in. Liberal Democrats will be faintly
:47:27. > :47:31.relieved the UKIP story's the headline. If you look at their story
:47:32. > :47:36.overnight, not at all good for them. I'll take you inside and show you
:47:37. > :47:43.what that means. A quarter of their councils have gone. We haven't the
:47:44. > :47:47.full results from Kingston. Their coalition partners have taken over
:47:48. > :47:52.that. Mike Hancock resigned, the whip, stood as an independent. UKIP
:47:53. > :47:56.have made the incursion here taking it away from the Liberal Democrats.
:47:57. > :48:01.It is now in no overall control. Not a great night for them there. I'll
:48:02. > :48:04.show you the gains and losses in terms of what the Conservatives have
:48:05. > :48:12.seen disappear tonight. You can see a lot of these places are in areas
:48:13. > :48:17.of Essex. Parts we called Mondeo man, patronisingly. Those are where
:48:18. > :48:21.the UKIP story is coming in. Taking their share of the result. Amber
:48:22. > :48:25.Valley will be a good result for Labour. A lot of key marginal
:48:26. > :48:29.constituencies. Old mining territory. They will have been
:48:30. > :48:33.pleased to take this from the Conservatives. You can see what
:48:34. > :48:37.happened overnight. A simple change. We can't see the share of the vote.
:48:38. > :48:41.We don't know if UKIP has played a part here. Labour up, the
:48:42. > :48:47.Conservatives down. We haven't mentioned the Greens much tonight. I
:48:48. > :48:50.can take you into Solihull. The Conservatives have retained Solihull
:48:51. > :48:57.on the Labour target list. Fake failed to make any inroads here. ``
:48:58. > :49:03.Labour failed to make any inroads here. The Greens along with the
:49:04. > :49:07.Liberal Democrats, are now the main party of opposition on the council
:49:08. > :49:11.to the Conservatives. They will be pleased to see some of those shoots
:49:12. > :49:16.coming through here. I'd like to go to Winchester and
:49:17. > :49:21.join Peter Henley, our Political Editor for the south Winchester,
:49:22. > :49:27.Portsmouth, Eastleigh, what's the story? You join us at quite a tense
:49:28. > :49:32.time here at Winchester. The Liberal Democrats have been doing better.
:49:33. > :49:38.This is a story for the Liberal Democrats. They've been counting on
:49:39. > :49:41.a final recount on a critical ward here. They are neck and neck between
:49:42. > :49:45.the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. This is a vital
:49:46. > :49:50.constituency for the General Election. Counting each vote
:49:51. > :49:55.carefully one by one. They could have been 50ed notes they've been so
:49:56. > :50:01.careful over each vote for the candidate here. It could decide the
:50:02. > :50:05.outcome between the two coalition partners. Some good news for Liberal
:50:06. > :50:10.Democrats. Some good news for Labour here. This looks like they've taken
:50:11. > :50:18.in Conservative heartland area a couple of extra seats. Taken #24e78
:50:19. > :50:25.up to maybe `` taken 'em up to maybe three or four. High turnout, over
:50:26. > :50:30.50%. UKIP looking very feddup, disillusioned saying they didn't get
:50:31. > :50:33.any traction for their message in this more affluent part of
:50:34. > :50:37.Hampshire. Ier me?
:50:38. > :50:41.We've talked about the way in which the results in councils might affect
:50:42. > :50:47.the General Election next year. Let me show you our map. We've tried
:50:48. > :50:51.to take key wards and council seats and bundle them into parliamentary
:50:52. > :50:55.constituencies and see if there's any message here for the many
:50:56. > :51:01.parties as they go into the General Election. Let me take you into our
:51:02. > :51:06.virtual House of Commons. We will bring on a graph which shows you the
:51:07. > :51:12.key wards. The share in key wards. First of all, we'll show you this.
:51:13. > :51:18.This is the percentage share, change on 2010. I made the comment Labour
:51:19. > :51:24.did pretty badly only up 4%. Conservatives down. UKIP up 14%.
:51:25. > :51:33.Liberal Democrats down 13%, Greens up 3%. Let's just isolate the key
:51:34. > :51:37.ward share and only look at marginal constituency wants which are held by
:51:38. > :51:41.the Conservatives or Labour. The idea here that we've heard from
:51:42. > :51:44.Labour people through the day and night is that actually, these are
:51:45. > :51:54.places where they are stronger. In fact, if you look at this, you can
:51:55. > :51:58.see actually, they are only up 3%. They are ups less, Labour, than
:51:59. > :52:03.2010. Conservatives no good news. They are down as well. But down by
:52:04. > :52:07.just about the same or less. The UKIP surge is no different. Still
:52:08. > :52:11.strong in those and the Liberal Democrats as in so many places but
:52:12. > :52:17.not apparently Winchester, having a nightmare. If you look at these
:52:18. > :52:20.seats, hear this line in Conservative marginals Labour has
:52:21. > :52:25.the strength to power through. Not the case according to our key wards.
:52:26. > :52:28.They are not doing as well in the marginals that they need. We'll
:52:29. > :52:33.focus on the Liberal Democrat story here in the same way. Let's look at
:52:34. > :52:39.key wards. These are the figures across all the key wards. We see
:52:40. > :52:43.those not huge changes for Labour and the Conservatives since 2010.
:52:44. > :52:48.Election year, of course, the Liberal Democrats down 13% since the
:52:49. > :52:53.coalition took power. The Liberal Democrats more than any other party
:52:54. > :52:55.say, what did we hear a few hours ago, where we work we win. The
:52:56. > :53:03.question is whether protecting their vote better in
:53:04. > :53:07.seats they hold. We isolated the key wards to Liberal Democrat seats, the
:53:08. > :53:11.places where they need their vote to turn out. Look at this. Even worse.
:53:12. > :53:15.They are suffering a bigger drop, the Liberal Democrats, in seats they
:53:16. > :53:20.hold. There is no protection that we can see against the flow of these
:53:21. > :53:23.results when it comes to those constituencies the Liberal Democrats
:53:24. > :53:26.hold where they tell us again and again they campaigned better and
:53:27. > :53:33.stronger. David. Which of those seats, which
:53:34. > :53:36.constituencies are you thinking about where the Liberal Democrats
:53:37. > :53:42.are in? We are talking about the seats where they are in the House of
:53:43. > :53:45.Commons. The 50 or 60. Down on the south coast, we see easterly which
:53:46. > :53:50.has returned a Liberal Democrat council. But the places where the
:53:51. > :53:54.Conservatives are pushing, they are not as well protected as they
:53:55. > :53:57.necessarily tell us. Where might they lose? The areas where the
:53:58. > :54:03.Liberal Democrats are struggling where they have MPs are London. It
:54:04. > :54:07.seems to be Brent, lost a whole load of councillors in Brent. Kingston.
:54:08. > :54:11.That went to the Conservatives. Outside of London, they are not
:54:12. > :54:17.doing that badly in those areas where they have MPs. Colchester, Bob
:54:18. > :54:24.rustle. In London, they are taking a hit. I think that's because they did
:54:25. > :54:28.well last time because of an anti`Blair, anti`Iraq war vote which
:54:29. > :54:32.went straight from Labour to the Liberal Democrats. Labour campaigned
:54:33. > :54:38.hugely aggressively in London against the Liberal Democrats. They
:54:39. > :54:46.are clawing those seats back. In Hornsey and Wood Green her seat is
:54:47. > :54:50.at risk? Alarming for you, Vince? No necessarily when you look at the
:54:51. > :54:56.detail. It is quite a small swing. The London seats were all fought on
:54:57. > :55:01.the same day as the General Election. They are coloured by what
:55:02. > :55:05.happened then. There are places like easily and Colchester. In
:55:06. > :55:11.Birmingham, where we have Yardley, up against Labour, an inner city
:55:12. > :55:16.seat, did extremely well. There are places we've done badly. We'll have
:55:17. > :55:23.to work out to hold them. Others less so. John Curtis says you did
:55:24. > :55:28.badly in Yardley. You will ahave to argue with him? We'll have to look
:55:29. > :55:36.at the detail. Sadique, figures for Labour showing a gigs appointing
:55:37. > :55:40.increase, backwards in some cases. Labour made gains from the Liberal
:55:41. > :55:45.Democrats and Conservatives. Amber Valley great example of gains from
:55:46. > :55:49.the Conservatives. Brent, Haringey will have no Liberal Democrat
:55:50. > :55:56.council at all. People like Katherine West and Dawn Butler will
:55:57. > :56:02.win back seats next year. Jeremy referred tote 3 or 4 or 5%.
:56:03. > :56:07.There are a number of seats where Conservative or Liberal Democrat MPs
:56:08. > :56:14.where we're second. There are double digits or three digits. Those 3 or 4
:56:15. > :56:19.or 5% swings mean we can win most or all of the targets which have which
:56:20. > :56:23.gives us an overall majority next year.
:56:24. > :56:28.Oncurt Is can you three light on this? `` John Curtis. Argument about
:56:29. > :56:34.who really suffers under the figures who really suffers under the figures
:56:35. > :56:37.that Jeremy Vine has been showing. Particularly whether Labour's doing
:56:38. > :56:44.as well as it should be at this stage. Perhaps... ? These things
:56:45. > :56:48.are, mine is a subjective judgment. They should be having clearly
:56:49. > :56:52.advancing far more than the Government. The Government should be
:56:53. > :56:55.well ahead. Recovering from their last general election defeat. We
:56:56. > :57:00.usually anticipate in the last months of a Parliament, the
:57:01. > :57:04.Government often recovers ground. If you make that assumption, the fact
:57:05. > :57:10.the Labour Party have only advanced a vote share in our key wards by 3
:57:11. > :57:15.or 4 points since 2010 and have clearly fallen back since 2012 does
:57:16. > :57:19.not strike me, at least, as obvious progress of the kind that
:57:20. > :57:24.oppositions that have gone on to win general elections have previously
:57:25. > :57:29.made. Sadique? John, if you factor in the areas we are trying to win
:57:30. > :57:35.seats. 2012 inSerb cities, this year, which is the same as next four
:57:36. > :57:42.years, if you factor in where our 106 targets or we are well on course
:57:43. > :57:48.to win those seats. Sadique, as Jeremy pointed out, if you look at
:57:49. > :57:51.what happened in key wards in crucial Conservative key areas
:57:52. > :58:00.there's no evidence you are performing. Amber Valley. Individual
:58:01. > :58:04.seats across the piece. Justine, The bottom line is every opposition
:58:05. > :58:07.coming into power has done that from being the largest party in local
:58:08. > :58:10.government. The Conservatives are still the largest party in local
:58:11. > :58:14.government after this election not Labour.
:58:15. > :58:19.We have to leave it there. The One O'Clock News, it is time for that.
:58:20. > :58:25.We'll be back after the news for more from this election centre in an
:58:26. > :58:38.hour's time. Rejoin us then at 2.00. Until then, goodbye.
:58:39. > :58:44.More showers to come for some for the remainder of today. Others, it
:58:45. > :58:46.is looking drier and brighter than this time yesterday. Let's look at
:58:47. > :58:47.the