Local - Part 4

:00:25. > :00:29.Welcome to the BBC's election centre or welcome back if you are addicted

:00:30. > :00:33.to election results. We have plenty more results to come this afternoon.

:00:34. > :00:37.The results, as you will know, so far, have been pretty rough for

:00:38. > :00:41.David Cameron's Conservatives. They've been losing councillors and

:00:42. > :00:44.key councils in London and the Midlands. The Liberal Democrats have

:00:45. > :00:48.had an even worse time. They've lost around a third of the seats they

:00:49. > :00:53.were defending last night. Looks as though they're heading for another

:00:54. > :00:57.pretty terrible performance. Labour have gained council seats, but not

:00:58. > :01:03.as many as the experts say they should in the year before a general

:01:04. > :01:05.election. As an opposition supposedly heading for victory. Of

:01:06. > :01:12.course, the party with most to talk about and the biggest mouth in

:01:13. > :01:19.politics at the moment, Nigel Farage's UKIP picking up votes and

:01:20. > :01:24.seats right around the country. So this afternoon we are going to be

:01:25. > :01:29.taking in more results from around the country. We have reporters at

:01:30. > :01:32.councils in Harrow, Labour hoping to regain control. They had a split on

:01:33. > :01:36.the council there. Labour's been doing well in London. Plymouth in

:01:37. > :01:41.the West Country, which was a Labour gain two years ago, hoping to

:01:42. > :01:46.consolidate control. UKIP, though, hoping to take seats there. And up

:01:47. > :01:48.in Manchester we will be there. Labour dominate, the question is

:01:49. > :01:52.whether the Liberal Democrats can hold on to any of their seats? In a

:01:53. > :01:57.moment I am going to be talking to our panel. It's changed now, senior

:01:58. > :02:00.politicians have dared to come here to the studio and talk about the

:02:01. > :02:04.horror of what's happened or in some cases triumph. But we will come to

:02:05. > :02:10.them in a moment. First, let's have the picture as it is now, Emily.

:02:11. > :02:13.Bring us up to date. 98 councils have been declared, we

:02:14. > :02:18.are two-thirds of the way through the counting tonight. This is the

:02:19. > :02:22.scoreboard as you can see. For the first time in England we have a

:02:23. > :02:28.proper full party political system. UKIP, the insurgents have crossed

:02:29. > :02:33.that 100 councillor mark now, looking like serious players. Labour

:02:34. > :02:35.will, I suspect be slightly disappointed with that result so

:02:36. > :02:42.far. Losses for the Conservatives of 133.

:02:43. > :02:48.For the Lib Dems, proportionially much worse, down 151. Let me take

:02:49. > :02:51.you to some places that have been won and lost overnight and today.

:02:52. > :02:56.The gains for Labour. You can see a pattern emerging.

:02:57. > :03:03.They're doing better in and around London.

:03:04. > :03:08.Cambridge, this one from the Lib Dems will be a triumph. Hammersmith

:03:09. > :03:13.perhaps their biggest Tory scalp of the night, reversing that one.

:03:14. > :03:15.And taking it with 11 councillors, seeing that drop of 11 to the

:03:16. > :03:25.Conservatives. Amber Valley, very important in a

:03:26. > :03:29.parliamentary level. There are a few key marginals here which means they

:03:30. > :03:34.can say they're gaining in places that will be fundamentally important

:03:35. > :03:43.next time around. Thurrock, an interesting one to see them not hold

:03:44. > :03:49.on to tonight. If I take you to places that the Conservatives are

:03:50. > :03:53.losing, you will see a lot of these Essex - places around Essex have

:03:54. > :03:58.gone to no overall control, and that's the UKIP factor. We are

:03:59. > :04:01.finding out UKIP are doing well where there are not just two parties

:04:02. > :04:08.but three, they're able to split the vote better and get not just share

:04:09. > :04:15.but seats. Basildon, they've done well. Maidstone, Kent. They've

:04:16. > :04:20.started to build in to that Tory vote and take those out of control.

:04:21. > :04:21.We will have plenty more, interesting regional variations we

:04:22. > :04:32.will bring you. Thank you, Emily. We will bring

:04:33. > :04:37.bringing you the results, some started this morning, some finished

:04:38. > :04:41.counting early this morning. You may be watching with your computer or a

:04:42. > :04:43.smartphone and if you are, you can follow all the results online, as

:04:44. > :04:52.well as hearing what we do here. That's where you can watch the

:04:53. > :05:00.debate unfold and you can also follow us on social media.

:05:01. > :05:06.Now, let's just have a brief news bulletin and we will be back here to

:05:07. > :05:13.talk about all of this. The news, first of all.

:05:14. > :05:16.Good afternoon. The main story here is the UKIP lead leader Nigel Farage

:05:17. > :05:21.saying that the main political parties are running scared after his

:05:22. > :05:26.party made significant gains in local councils in England. Labour

:05:27. > :05:29.didn't do as well as it hoped. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats

:05:30. > :05:33.lost dozens of seats. With nearly two-thirds of seats now counted, our

:05:34. > :05:36.political correspondent Iain Watson looks at the story so far. This

:05:37. > :05:44.report contains some flash photography.

:05:45. > :05:47.He promised a political earthquake and even though the party hasn't won

:05:48. > :05:50.control of any councils they've done well enough to send shockwaves

:05:51. > :05:54.through the more established parties with around a quarter of the vote in

:05:55. > :06:00.areas where they stood candidates they caused upsets from Essex to

:06:01. > :06:05.Yorkshire, depriving the Conservatives in Basildon and Labour

:06:06. > :06:11.in Thurrock. It's just a process vote t will go away. They said it in

:06:12. > :06:14.2009, they said it after the English County elections last year. After

:06:15. > :06:17.this result they'll say it's a protest. It looks like a permanent

:06:18. > :06:21.protest. The performance provoked calls from some Conservatives for a

:06:22. > :06:24.pact at the next general election. But the Prime Minister dismissed

:06:25. > :06:30.this. We are the Conservative Party. We don't do pacts and deals. We are

:06:31. > :06:33.fighting all-out for a win at the next election. Last night we lost

:06:34. > :06:36.some good councillors but our next election. Last night we lost

:06:37. > :06:41.share was up from last year. One of the councils the Conservatives lost

:06:42. > :06:44.was Croydon in London and a former leader blamed UKIP for letting

:06:45. > :06:47.Labour in. Obviously we are disappointed. We lost seats tonight

:06:48. > :06:50.to Labour. But if you look at the Labour vote it hasn't moved

:06:51. > :06:54.dramatically. What's happened is that UKIP has taken votes from us. I

:06:55. > :06:58.think there will be a lot of people waking up today in Croydon today and

:06:59. > :07:02.finding out they've a Labour council because they voted UKIP. The clear

:07:03. > :07:06.winner of the council elections so far has been Labour, gaining around

:07:07. > :07:09.150 seats. They performed particularly well in areas where

:07:10. > :07:13.UKIP are weak. Here in Cambridge and in London. The Labour leader said

:07:14. > :07:17.people had voted for change but recognised UKIP posed a challenge

:07:18. > :07:23.for all parties. Across the country you have seen people voting for

:07:24. > :07:27.Labour to make that change happen from Croydon to Hastings to

:07:28. > :07:32.Cambridge. You also saw some people turning to UKIP. I am determined

:07:33. > :07:36.that over the next year we persuade them that we can change their lives

:07:37. > :07:41.for the better. But so far Labour's vote is up by around three points on

:07:42. > :07:44.their performance at the last general election. The Conservatives

:07:45. > :07:48.lost more than 100 councillors and had some consolation seeing Labour

:07:49. > :07:51.off in Swindon and claiming victory against the Lib Dems in Kingston.

:07:52. > :07:56.Nick Clegg conceded there had been some losses to his coalition

:07:57. > :07:59.partners. It's never easy to see dedicated hard-working Liberal

:08:00. > :08:04.Democrat councillors lose ground. But actually I think in the areas

:08:05. > :08:08.where we have MPs, where we have good organisation on the ground and

:08:09. > :08:11.can get our message across we are doing well. Based on their

:08:12. > :08:14.performance in the council elections, UKIP are confident of

:08:15. > :08:18.doing well when the results of the European elections are announced on

:08:19. > :08:21.Sunday night. If they send more tremors through the political

:08:22. > :08:24.establishment, then the more traditional political parties will

:08:25. > :08:28.have to decide how to respond. Should they move closer to UKIP's

:08:29. > :08:38.territory on Europe and immigration? Or should they stand their ground?

:08:39. > :08:44.In other news, the world famous Glasgow School of Art Rennie

:08:45. > :08:49.McIntosh building is on fire. Witnesses say the fire began in the

:08:50. > :08:54.basement. Smoke can now be seen on the roof and drifting across the

:08:55. > :08:58.city. The new building next door has been evacuated.

:08:59. > :09:01.The former BBC broadcaster Stuart Hall has been sentenced to

:09:02. > :09:05.two-and-a-half years in prison for two counts of indecently assaulting

:09:06. > :09:10.an underage girl. He is already in prison for indecent assault. The new

:09:11. > :09:15.sentence will run consecutively. Hall, who is 84, was found guilty of

:09:16. > :09:19.one count of indecent assault last week. At the beginning of the trial

:09:20. > :09:22.he had admitted indecently assaulting the same girl when she

:09:23. > :09:27.was 13. An RAF search team will continue

:09:28. > :09:30.looking for four missing British yachtsmen in the Atlantic until late

:09:31. > :09:35.tonight. The four haven't been heard from since their vessel is presumed

:09:36. > :09:38.to have sunk last week. The US coastguard resumed a search on

:09:39. > :09:42.Tuesday but says it will end its operation overnight if nothing has

:09:43. > :09:48.been found. Those are the main news stories so

:09:49. > :09:52.far. Back to David. Thank you, Jane. So in the studio

:09:53. > :09:56.now let me introduce our guests, Patrick oh Flynn, the director of

:09:57. > :10:00.communications for UKIP and is actually standing in the east of

:10:01. > :10:07.England as their top of the list candidate. Michael Douglas, from the

:10:08. > :10:11.Cabinet Office. Eric Pickles, Secretary of State for communities

:10:12. > :10:14.and local Government. Patrick, could I start with you, you

:10:15. > :10:17.heard our reporter saying you have to do well or you are expecting to

:10:18. > :10:22.do well on Sunday with the European elections. Do you think this means

:10:23. > :10:30.you are going to come out top? Well, the book-makers seem to place us a

:10:31. > :10:34.strong favourite, I am wary of saying before the result comes out.

:10:35. > :10:38.It looks promising. I was expecting us to get - am expecting us to get a

:10:39. > :10:42.higher share of the votes in the Europeans than in locals, I haven't

:10:43. > :10:46.yet seen a projected national share in these. But in any event, we are

:10:47. > :10:50.optimistic and it looks good. We haven't done our projection national

:10:51. > :10:54.share yet. We will do it later when we have enough of the key wards in

:10:55. > :10:58.showing how the whole of the country would have voted. Well, England, not

:10:59. > :11:03.Scotland, of course, where they've had no elections today or Wales.

:11:04. > :11:09.Just tell me this, we have heard a lot of talk from the other parties

:11:10. > :11:15.about how you are the new dustbin, the disaffected, you don't have any

:11:16. > :11:19.policies, except get out of Europe. And that it will all wither on the

:11:20. > :11:25.vine come the general election. Well, I think for the first thing is

:11:26. > :11:28.to say the other parties are foolish to base their future expectations on

:11:29. > :11:36.that assumption. I think we are in a position where

:11:37. > :11:41.the British people are taking a look at us. They're delighted we are

:11:42. > :11:45.offering an alternative. But we would indeed be complacent if they

:11:46. > :11:50.think we can run around with our arms in the air singing we are the

:11:51. > :11:54.champions. We have work to do on our own weaknesses and must build on our

:11:55. > :11:59.strengths F the other parties expect us just to fade away, people like me

:12:00. > :12:04.will be working very hard over the summer to make sure that when we

:12:05. > :12:09.have our party conference up in Doncaster in South Yorkshire, one of

:12:10. > :12:12.our new strongholes, we have some interesting -- strongholds, we have

:12:13. > :12:16.interesting things to say about the domestic agenda which will give the

:12:17. > :12:22.public the idea we are taking a chance and we are progressing. Eric

:12:23. > :12:27.Pickles, you are an Essex man, you must be dismayed by the inroads UKIP

:12:28. > :12:32.has made in the east coast of Britain. Obviously I am sorry to see

:12:33. > :12:42.a lot of good Conservative councillors go down and I am - I

:12:43. > :12:47.recognise UKIP has a strong base within Essex and the east of London.

:12:48. > :12:55.I confidently predict that you will be elected on Sunday. Before you go

:12:56. > :12:59.to Strasbourg and make all our lives that little bit better. What is it

:13:00. > :13:04.about Essex and that part of England that finds UKIP appealing and the

:13:05. > :13:10.Tories so unappealing? There was a lot of churning, I mean, we did take

:13:11. > :13:14.more seats than UKIP in Essex. There were fights between us and Labour.

:13:15. > :13:18.Some we won, some we lost. Fights between us and Lib Dems, some we

:13:19. > :13:23.have won. You are not top dog exactly at the moment, are you?

:13:24. > :13:26.Well, strangely at the end of this parliament we will have had

:13:27. > :13:30.something which I think is virtually unique, we usually are wiped out,

:13:31. > :13:33.party Government's always wiped out in local Government, at the end of

:13:34. > :13:36.this parliament we will be the largest party in local Government. I

:13:37. > :13:40.don't believe that's ever happened before. What about the in-roads

:13:41. > :13:44.they're making on - we have seen the breakdown of where the UKIP vote is

:13:45. > :13:51.coming from and you no doubt know the statistic that 60% of the people

:13:52. > :13:55.who are voting UKIP or voting UKIP yesterday said they will stay with

:13:56. > :13:58.UKIP and won't do what happened previously when they went back to

:13:59. > :14:03.the Tories? I saw that poll and I think it's taken from us and also

:14:04. > :14:09.from Labour and from the Liberal Democrats. More from you. I accept

:14:10. > :14:14.that. It's up to us to be able to give a clear message, a long-term

:14:15. > :14:20.economic plan. Basically people in Essex had to go through four very

:14:21. > :14:23.difficult years after Labour's great recession and the effects of our

:14:24. > :14:28.economic policy hasn't really been felt. This time next year hopefully

:14:29. > :14:33.people will feel they've got a few more bob in their pocket and be more

:14:34. > :14:38.cheerful with what we have done. There seems to be more do it than

:14:39. > :14:43.that, a lot of the reporting on the doorstep and from candidates, from

:14:44. > :14:48.MPs out campaigning of all parties is that it's to do with the

:14:49. > :14:55.political class. It's to do with you people and a kind of disaffection

:14:56. > :15:01.with that. It's not just us, it's you, as well. It's about a

:15:02. > :15:04.Metropolitan elite that have a particular view about politics.

:15:05. > :15:09.People from Essex are practical people. I think if we can

:15:10. > :15:14.demonstrate the difference that we have made, if we can perhaps listen

:15:15. > :15:18.a little bit more on the doorstep, I am very confident that when we are

:15:19. > :15:24.sat in the equivalent of this studio just short of a year from now, that

:15:25. > :15:29.we will have persuaded those people who have voted UKIP to vote

:15:30. > :15:39.Conservative. It will be a straight choice. What have you not been

:15:40. > :15:43.hearing? I think we need to offer reassurance. I think we have to

:15:44. > :15:48.offer assistance. And persuasion also in terms of the difference we

:15:49. > :15:53.have made to the Government of this country, especially in terms of not

:15:54. > :15:57.just tackling the deficit but ensuring that they have better job

:15:58. > :16:01.prospects and the West Indies have a better job prospect. Michael

:16:02. > :16:08.Douglas, you have done well in London. You have taken Hammersmith

:16:09. > :16:12.straight from the Tories. Yet our statistics show that you slipped

:16:13. > :16:19.back from where you were in 2012 and you have not kept a forward momentum

:16:20. > :16:23.going and indeed we have seen UKIP taking seats and votes at your

:16:24. > :16:30.expense in the north, in wrath ram, for instance, in Sunderland, in Hull

:16:31. > :16:34.as well, in the east. What is going on? We always look at the marginal

:16:35. > :16:38.seats, the target seats that we know we have to win to get a majority the

:16:39. > :16:41.next time. You look at that, you say to yourselves, look, can we get a

:16:42. > :16:47.majority the next time? I think that the Tories are making the gain that

:16:48. > :16:52.they need to in the seats that they are targeting, no, they are not. We

:16:53. > :16:59.have gone through the list, outside of London, Cannock Chase, Lincoln,

:17:00. > :17:05.Peterborough, Basingstoke, Enfield in Croydon, of course, Ipswich...

:17:06. > :17:08.These lists are getting boring at this stage in the afternoon.

:17:09. > :17:15.Everybody comes out to read a list! But all of the gains, I think this

:17:16. > :17:18.is boring but it is another C, and that is not boring, that is progress

:17:19. > :17:23.made. But it is the overall picture I am

:17:24. > :17:28.looking at. Not the list thankfully with have gained on. Everyone can

:17:29. > :17:31.play that game. Only Labour can play that game of

:17:32. > :17:34.seats needed to win to form a majority.

:17:35. > :17:39.OK. Let's have a look at UKIP and where it is doing well. Jeremy, can

:17:40. > :17:46.you show us something about that? Where is UKIP strong, or where does

:17:47. > :17:53.it have a good chance a year from now? We were listening to Patrick

:17:54. > :18:01.talking, to have a closer look at this with UKIP and how the map has

:18:02. > :18:06.spread. There is the map. 151 councils but let's focus in on UKIP

:18:07. > :18:10.and look at how they are doing. Here is the first graph to show you

:18:11. > :18:14.UKIP's performance. We are looking at sharing key wards north and south

:18:15. > :18:18.of England. The classic thing we have been told that UKIP do well

:18:19. > :18:24.against the Conservatives, therefore in the blue areas they are strong.

:18:25. > :18:30.In the north, Labour is by far the strongest party. UKIP, 18% in these

:18:31. > :18:33.elections. Move to this graph. This is the area, the south where they

:18:34. > :18:37.should be strongest in, for the reasons that I gave, they are lower.

:18:38. > :18:40.The Conservatives, of course the strongest party overall in the

:18:41. > :18:45.south. So that is a very important graph. It gives strength to what

:18:46. > :18:46.Nigel Farage said that UKIP is taking votes from parties up and

:18:47. > :18:49.down the country. taking votes from parties up and

:18:50. > :18:55.the northern constituencies than in the south. We will come to London in

:18:56. > :19:02.a second. But this is worth thinking about. Have a look now at two other

:19:03. > :19:06.comparisons. Two morass. We take a lump lumpy description of the

:19:07. > :19:11.Midlands and the East. UKIP doing well here. Not as well as in the

:19:12. > :19:15.north and the south. But 14%. A creditable performance. In an area

:19:16. > :19:20.with lots of marginals. Move to London, it is not 14% is it? As we

:19:21. > :19:26.have been saying, they are struggling to make the same kind of

:19:27. > :19:31.showing in London, 7%. So it is a regional performance by UKIP. The

:19:32. > :19:35.north/south comparison is good for them. But take an area outside of

:19:36. > :19:38.London and compare with London, there is something going wrong in

:19:39. > :19:44.London. So let's have a closer look at the London vote. Let's do it

:19:45. > :19:49.through the prism of wards that are more diverse than your average ward,

:19:50. > :19:54.more ethnic mine ority voters in them. So here are the figures for

:19:55. > :19:58.the key wards. This is the figure tonight of UKIP for 13% across the

:19:59. > :20:02.piece. Now we say what about wards or

:20:03. > :20:09.council areas where there is a population that is less than 50%

:20:10. > :20:14.white. So very diverse, I should add one rider, we are not dealing with a

:20:15. > :20:18.large number of wards, we are just taking the information that we have

:20:19. > :20:22.got, here UKIP are down 4%. So a good way down from where they are

:20:23. > :20:26.across the board. Performing really well in lots of places. That

:20:27. > :20:30.explains the London vote, London being the most diverse area of the

:20:31. > :20:36.country. One more way of showing it it you, one more comparison, change

:20:37. > :20:41.in key wards on 2010. These are wards more than 90% white. So look

:20:42. > :20:46.at these particular wards, you can think of places in Essex, what is

:20:47. > :20:49.happening to UKIP there? 20% up on 2010.

:20:50. > :20:55.So, we have broken down the voter bit there. There are places where

:20:56. > :21:01.there is a large contingent of ethnic minority voters, UKIP

:21:02. > :21:06.struggle. Remember we are not looking at that many wards here. But

:21:07. > :21:12.there is a plus, as they have done well in the north. And given what we

:21:13. > :21:18.have heard about in years, that is really pretty remarkable.

:21:19. > :21:23.Our pecks pert this afternoon is Professor Jane Green from Manchester

:21:24. > :21:27.University, in charge of the British Election Study. That tell us

:21:28. > :21:33.everything that we need to know about British elections. On UKIP,

:21:34. > :21:38.what do you read into that? That it... What kind of appeal is UKIP

:21:39. > :21:42.making? I think what is fascinating about what germ write was saying is

:21:43. > :21:47.that UKIP's appeal looks from the results so far in, as though it is

:21:48. > :21:50.doing better in the north. So let's think about the implications.

:21:51. > :21:55.Everybody is thinking about next year. About what we wind out today,

:21:56. > :22:00.Monday, after the European election results, and what it tell us for the

:22:01. > :22:06.general election next year. What the study shows is that we are seeing a

:22:07. > :22:11.return to how things were in the 1980s. When the Labour support was

:22:12. > :22:16.stronger in the north and the Conservative support stronger in the

:22:17. > :22:20.south. Interesting parallels. Periods of austerity, cutbacks,

:22:21. > :22:25.difficult times in the north, not felt as strongly in the south. So

:22:26. > :22:29.the UKIP successes in the north have to translate in an area where Labour

:22:30. > :22:34.is really strong if they are to get any MPs. That is very unlikely.

:22:35. > :22:38.Whereas UKIP's successes in the south have to translate and knock

:22:39. > :22:43.out the Conservatives. That is becoming unlikely. So looking at the

:22:44. > :22:48.north/south divide for the results for UKIP, yes it is true that UKIP

:22:49. > :22:54.look like they are making gains in the north, we did not expect that to

:22:55. > :22:59.be the case. I expected it in middle England and less so in London but in

:23:00. > :23:04.order to get MPs in Parliament next year, which looks unlikely, they

:23:05. > :23:09.have to overcome the strength of the Labour in the north and the

:23:10. > :23:14.Conservatives in the south. Patrick O' Flynn? I did not realise

:23:15. > :23:19.it had been such an awful night for us. The key thing is clearly

:23:20. > :23:25.cracking first-past-the-post in a big constituency for Westminster.

:23:26. > :23:30.Now what we managed to do this time, never mind the sweeping north and

:23:31. > :23:37.south averages is to get clusters of councillors. We have seen it along

:23:38. > :23:46.the Thames Estuary, in Essex, in Rotherham in particular. We are

:23:47. > :23:50.following the Paddy Ashdownblueprint to get yourself established in the

:23:51. > :23:54.local authority and get the foot soldiers out and a campaign team,

:23:55. > :23:58.you get visibility, used to the local electorate thinking that they

:23:59. > :24:03.are winning here. So I think that is good news. We gets lots of data from

:24:04. > :24:11.the results. That will allow us to compile the key targets, the key

:24:12. > :24:15.target seats. You are saying what Jeremy said that the 19% is

:24:16. > :24:20.misleading as there are peaks and troughs in the north and you are

:24:21. > :24:27.concentrating on the peaks, you are saying that Ashdown did for the

:24:28. > :24:30.Liberal Democrats? I think he did. So targeting is really important for

:24:31. > :24:35.us. Is he right? He is right. But if

:24:36. > :24:37.UKIP is going to get a member of Parliament to Westminster, there

:24:38. > :24:42.must be a strong concentration of the vote. But let's remember how

:24:43. > :24:48.long it took the Green Party to achieve that. They now have

:24:49. > :24:51.Caruanaow line Lucas in the Green Party it took them many years to get

:24:52. > :24:56.the concentration of support in one area. I am not saying it is

:24:57. > :25:00.impossible. We are in a world in which making predictions between now

:25:01. > :25:05.and next year is for the food hardy but still, it has to happen. For

:25:06. > :25:13.both sides of the Thames Estuary, we are getting the concentrations.

:25:14. > :25:18.Every political party, you heard Michael's list, we have the 40/40

:25:19. > :25:22.campaign. We recognise the Conservative Party problems, winning

:25:23. > :25:26.the possible ar vote but not winning the election. Michael Howard beat

:25:27. > :25:31.Tony Blair in the popular vote but Tony Blair had a huge majority. So

:25:32. > :25:35.it is in the wards, in the marginals that we are fighting it out, seeking

:25:36. > :25:39.to really connect with the electorate.

:25:40. > :25:45.You haven't won any councils, have you? Taking controls of councils at

:25:46. > :25:50.our stage in development in ungo is unrealistic. We are looking for the

:25:51. > :25:53.clusters of councils and seeing it. We are not even halfway through the

:25:54. > :25:55.results. We are, we are two thirds of the

:25:56. > :25:59.way. OK.

:26:00. > :26:06.For Labour, what is the message from what Jane has said and what Jeremy

:26:07. > :26:09.has shown? I rattled off the list of marriage a malseats we are winning.

:26:10. > :26:15.That is obviously vital for forming a majority the next time. But

:26:16. > :26:20.equally, I am a Barnsley MP, I grew up in Doncaster. I am a South

:26:21. > :26:26.Yorkshireman, I don't want UKIP doing well in South Yorkshire. While

:26:27. > :26:29.we can draw heart on doing well in the marginals, it puts us on course

:26:30. > :26:34.for Downing Street but we have to face up to the work we have to do in

:26:35. > :26:36.some of our heartlands. And to explain, whether you knock on the

:26:37. > :26:39.door they explain, whether you knock on the

:26:40. > :26:42.In large parts of the explain, whether you knock on the

:26:43. > :26:47.means Labour. But we have to face up in some areas that

:26:48. > :26:50.means Labour. But we have to face up for this to do

:26:51. > :26:54.means Labour. But we have to face up going back very many years, decades

:26:55. > :27:00.in parts. The old industries have gone, the jobs that have come they

:27:01. > :27:08.are not enough, they are too low paid... Labour is meant to be good

:27:09. > :27:13.at coping with that. For a 20-years old party to steal your clothes in

:27:14. > :27:18.that situation, that is where Labour works? Clearly we are dealing with

:27:19. > :27:23.low pay, tackling immigration, all of those things but we have work to

:27:24. > :27:28.do in communicating that. And to say to our people and the working-class

:27:29. > :27:33.communities, be careful what you vote for. David Cameron has cut

:27:34. > :27:39.taxes for millionaires, UKIP will give them even bigger tack cuts.

:27:40. > :27:43.UKIP will charge you to see your GP. Well, we have work to do is

:27:44. > :27:47.political code for we have not hacked it this time, isn't it? It

:27:48. > :27:53.means we have made good progress. We have work to do means we have

:27:54. > :27:58.failed? No, not at all. Like all parties we recognise we have to work

:27:59. > :28:01.harder, listen more and make further progress.

:28:02. > :28:05.Hanging on, we are to get reports from outside of the box we are in.

:28:06. > :28:10.Let's go to Crawley it is held by the Conservatives. Labour are hoping

:28:11. > :28:13.to take control of it. Louise Stuart is there waiting for us. Good

:28:14. > :28:18.afternoon. Well, David, they have in the last

:28:19. > :28:21.half an hour taken control of the council here. Labour pushed really

:28:22. > :28:25.hard here. In fact they chose to launch their south-east campaign

:28:26. > :28:29.here with the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls. Ed Miliband has been here

:28:30. > :28:35.several times in the past few months. This is a key target in the

:28:36. > :28:38.south-east. They have surpassed the expectations. Needing three wards to

:28:39. > :28:44.take back control of the authority. They gained four. They are obviously

:28:45. > :28:49.delighted. The new leered, Peter Lamb is 27, one of the youngest

:28:50. > :28:52.council leaders in the country. He said it proves that Labour can win

:28:53. > :28:57.back in the south-east. I am not sure that is the entire picture,

:28:58. > :29:04.although they did increase the share of vote in Hastings, they have not

:29:05. > :29:08.made inroads to some of the other areas in the south-east but no

:29:09. > :29:13.doubting they push hard in Crawley and have taken back the council for

:29:14. > :29:17.the first time since May 2006. This will be a key battle ground in the

:29:18. > :29:22.next general election. In the last few weeks we have been bombarded by

:29:23. > :29:26.big hitters, William Hague was here a few days ago, Ed Miliband was

:29:27. > :29:30.here. They know that they have to win this seat, Labour, to prove to

:29:31. > :29:33.get over their southern discomfort, if you like, and win back here in

:29:34. > :29:37.the south-east. Thank you very much.

:29:38. > :29:41.Now we are joined by our Political Editor for Yorkshire and

:29:42. > :29:46.Lincolnshire, he is in Grimsby. Tim, tell us what has been going on in

:29:47. > :29:52.the councils there. How UKIP has been doing in Rotherham, Lincoln?

:29:53. > :29:56.What is happening there? The story in the North East Lincolnshire so

:29:57. > :30:02.far is that UKIP have taken four seats from Labour and one seat from

:30:03. > :30:10.the Conservatives. Now, UKIP is promising further

:30:11. > :30:15.gains. North East Lincolnshire is the council area that covers the

:30:16. > :30:21.former fishing port of Grimsby a Labour voting area and Cleethorpes,

:30:22. > :30:25.a seaside resort on the east coast that tends to be Conservative

:30:26. > :30:30.leaning. Both seats are up for grabs. The Tories are defending

:30:31. > :30:35.Cleethorpes, Labour defending Great Grimsby. The fact you could have

:30:36. > :30:40.done well here today, UKIP has said that Great Grimsby is a key target

:30:41. > :30:49.seat for them in next year's general election because the veteran Labour

:30:50. > :30:54.member Austin Mitchell is stepping down. But the worst case scenario

:30:55. > :30:59.for Labour here today is that they could lose outright control of this

:31:00. > :31:04.authority. If they do get back in it would be with a thin majority. Now

:31:05. > :31:09.this all follows a good night for UKIP in other parts of Yorkshire and

:31:10. > :31:13.Lincolnshire. Rotherham was the big win for UKIP, even though they did

:31:14. > :31:17.not win control of the council, taking ten seats from Labour last

:31:18. > :31:22.night in a traditional Labour heartland. Taking one seat from

:31:23. > :31:26.Labour in Hull but a big share of the vote, almost 26% in Hull again,

:31:27. > :31:32.a traditional Labour area. Thank you very much. I want to bring

:31:33. > :31:47.in a Labour It hadn't had a response. And that

:31:48. > :31:53.was sometime back. In the light of what's been going on now is that

:31:54. > :31:59.still your view and what would you say to our Labour MP here about what

:32:00. > :32:04.Labour should now do? Well, it's not just my view, it's a fact that the

:32:05. > :32:09.Labour strategy was not to attack UKIP. There were lots of private

:32:10. > :32:13.complaints, not least by the members of the European Parliament,

:32:14. > :32:16.demanding that we attack UKIP and they were turned down. Some of the

:32:17. > :32:22.people at the centre of the Labour Party seem to think UKIP doing well

:32:23. > :32:27.now will be good because it will damage the Conservatives more than

:32:28. > :32:34.us. The problem with that strategy - this is the watershed, the high

:32:35. > :32:38.point for UKIP and turnout's not gone up much across the country, the

:32:39. > :32:42.problem we have is that the reason people have been voting UKIP is

:32:43. > :32:48.their disenchantment and whether people bother voting at all. That's

:32:49. > :32:53.our challenge. My view is that the Labour coalition that holds together

:32:54. > :32:59.the Labour Party isn't broad enough. The viewpoints of people like me are

:33:00. > :33:03.not properly included and I think they represent a significant part of

:33:04. > :33:09.the electorate who is disillusioned with the Labour Party. What would

:33:10. > :33:14.you have like them to have say, what attack wasn't made, what is it you

:33:15. > :33:18.draw attention to? For example, I suggested that in places like

:33:19. > :33:24.Rotherham and elsewhere there should have been posters up with Nigel

:33:25. > :33:27.Farage and his big smiling face with his Margaret Thatcher mug that was

:33:28. > :33:32.photographed and his quotes on why he supported closing coal mines and

:33:33. > :33:36.steelworks. Or the fact that he supported cutting the NHS which he

:33:37. > :33:40.said in January or the fact that he supported bigger cuts in the pension

:33:41. > :33:45.which he said in January. We should have been on the offensive taking

:33:46. > :33:52.the battle toll UKIP. I thought it was very dangerous and misguided

:33:53. > :33:57.strategy and it's backfired. Whose fault? It's the fault of the people

:33:58. > :34:04.at the top of the Labour Party. Naomis. Ed -- name names. Ed

:34:05. > :34:08.Miliband and the people at the top of the Labour Party. Called this

:34:09. > :34:14.wrong in not taking the fight to UKIP. It was a big error, it gave

:34:15. > :34:18.them space to operate in, in places like Rotherham and the north of

:34:19. > :34:23.England and the biggest danger with it is it's not then addressing the

:34:24. > :34:30.issues that quite a lot of Labour voters, including loyal Labour

:34:31. > :34:32.voters who in places have stayed with Labour this time and will do at

:34:33. > :34:37.the general election want to hear from the Labour Party. If we don't

:34:38. > :34:41.do that, we won't win. He is talking about you and people like you.

:34:42. > :34:48.do that, we won't win. He is talking have known John a long time, he

:34:49. > :34:52.would struggle to put me in the pet -- Metropolitan elite. You are at

:34:53. > :35:00.the heart of the project. I am in the Shadow Cabinet. Exactly. He is

:35:01. > :35:04.not in the Shadow Cabinet. I see someone who is who left school with

:35:05. > :35:08.no qualifications, I see Emma, brought up by a single mum on a

:35:09. > :35:12.council estate. This kind of caricature, it's a nice line from

:35:13. > :35:16.John who is a mate of mine, come on, do me a favour. Where John has a

:35:17. > :35:21.point rightly, all of us have to work harder and I would say this for

:35:22. > :35:25.all the mainstream parties in terms of connecting with the public. There

:35:26. > :35:28.is a anti-politics mood out there. That's not something that started in

:35:29. > :35:33.the last three weeks of this campaign, that's something over many

:35:34. > :35:37.years now with turnout declining. John is right, we have to work

:35:38. > :35:43.harder at connecting with people. In terms of attacking UKIP, if you are

:35:44. > :35:48.one of my con constituents in Barnsley, lots of ex-miners there,

:35:49. > :35:52.you do get things through the door telling you exactly what UKIP stand

:35:53. > :35:57.for. I think it's not quite fair to say that we weren't prepared to

:35:58. > :36:05.expose UKIP for the policies that they offer. They had a wonderful

:36:06. > :36:09.time on the BBC, we have had Farage mania on the television. Over the

:36:10. > :36:13.next 12 months as people scrutinise Farage and UKIP and you found that

:36:14. > :36:16.in the last few days of the campaign, put him under pressure and

:36:17. > :36:21.he is found wanting. Is that a a sufficient answer for you, John?

:36:22. > :36:25.It's not an answer at all. Michael knows well the Labour Party election

:36:26. > :36:30.strategy was not to attack UKIP and that was a fundamental error both in

:36:31. > :36:34.this election, but also the danger is that what that says to those

:36:35. > :36:38.sections of the electorate and lots of people who are concerned about

:36:39. > :36:42.immigration, who are concerned about Europe, and particularly when it

:36:43. > :36:49.comes to immigration want the Labour Party if it's in power to do

:36:50. > :36:55.something about it. John mentions the word immigration and from my

:36:56. > :36:58.experience by far the biggest motivating factor in Labour to UKIP

:36:59. > :37:02.switching has been that the traditional British working class

:37:03. > :37:06.does not want open door immigration in respect of two dozen countries

:37:07. > :37:11.and more than 400 million people. It's been through it with the

:37:12. > :37:19.experience where Labour didn't impose controls. It holds it

:37:20. > :37:24.responsible for - and either Labour gets a grip on the actual content of

:37:25. > :37:28.that policy, or those voters are going to be open-minded to continue

:37:29. > :37:34.coming in our direction. I will come back to you. John, before we go on

:37:35. > :37:40.in the studio here, why do you think they didn't do what you want against

:37:41. > :37:51.UKIP? Why didn't they take off the gloves and have a fight with UKIP,

:37:52. > :37:56.what's the motive behind that? It sounds folly. It is. Why? Firstly,

:37:57. > :38:01.some of them, and I would exclude Michael in this, some of them don't

:38:02. > :38:05.like talking about immigration. Secondly, and I think equally

:38:06. > :38:11.dangerously, there are some of them there and they've expressed it to me

:38:12. > :38:14.in no uncertain terms, think they're playing some kind of clever game

:38:15. > :38:18.where you shuffle the deck around and if UKIP does quite well but not

:38:19. > :38:24.well enough, that helps Labour get in. Well that kind of mindset will

:38:25. > :38:29.not win the general election. We saw that in the tactics and strategy and

:38:30. > :38:34.that is why on Labour leaflets for the European elections Labour

:38:35. > :38:45.posters, etc, we choose not to attack UKIP, that was a bad error.

:38:46. > :38:50.OK. What about the Tories? You didn't attack. Apart from fruitcakes

:38:51. > :38:59.and all that, and you had to pull back from saying that, you didn't go

:39:00. > :39:05.for UKIP, did you? I think it's quite - you don't win elections by

:39:06. > :39:11.knocking seven bells out of your opponent. You win it because you

:39:12. > :39:15.have a good case to ensure that the British population that kids have

:39:16. > :39:20.jobs and they have a job and there is some prosperity. I understand why

:39:21. > :39:23.immigration is a big issue. We had uncontrolled immigration to this

:39:24. > :39:28.country. We have done our best to push back. Everyone says we joined

:39:29. > :39:31.the common market, we didn't join this European Union. We want free

:39:32. > :39:35.trade. There has to be a degree of movement of people. You can't

:39:36. > :39:39.restrict people to their own boundaries. I have no objection

:39:40. > :39:44.whatsoever of someone coming to work in this country to pay taxes and

:39:45. > :39:48.national insurance and help pay for our pensions. What we object to is

:39:49. > :39:54.people coming on benefits tourism. We have made significant steps to

:39:55. > :39:57.stop that. What do you make of this argument about how the other party

:39:58. > :40:01.should have dealt with UKIP, who got it right and wrong? I think the big

:40:02. > :40:05.surprises of the night are that Labour hasn't done better than we

:40:06. > :40:09.thought it should. And also the Liberal Democrats have lost more

:40:10. > :40:13.support than was expected. It's not for me to say what you should have

:40:14. > :40:17.or shouldn't have done. There is a really important message that is

:40:18. > :40:22.relevant to all the parties, including UKIP, and that is that,

:40:23. > :40:27.let's just remember that turnout in this election isn't looking like

:40:28. > :40:32.it's Soaring, not looking like it's high. Looking like it's normal. That

:40:33. > :40:35.means that a large proportion of the country are not voting here and they

:40:36. > :40:38.haven't had their say and we asked people in the British election study

:40:39. > :40:43.whether or not people think that politicians don't care what people

:40:44. > :40:46.like them think. 65% of people are saying that. There is an opportunity

:40:47. > :40:50.for all of the parties to address that and it's not the case that UKIP

:40:51. > :40:53.support is a lot higher amongst those people who think that

:40:54. > :40:57.politicians don't speak for them. Yes, it is the case that there

:40:58. > :41:01.aren't more people than before who now think that Nigel Farage can

:41:02. > :41:04.speak to them, for them, but it's not the case there is large

:41:05. > :41:07.majorities of the population that think any of the parties can. There

:41:08. > :41:11.is a long-term trend that points in that direction. There is more people

:41:12. > :41:15.who think that none of the parties have something on offer for them.

:41:16. > :41:19.That's what all the major parties - all the parties I should say, major

:41:20. > :41:24.and minor parties need to respond to. There is another factor, we have

:41:25. > :41:28.a fixed term parliament. I was appointed party chairman a year

:41:29. > :41:35.before the last election. I got ready for about four or five - when

:41:36. > :41:40.it was going to be called. We know the date and the public knows the

:41:41. > :41:43.date of the next election. Over the next year people will make their

:41:44. > :41:47.mind up who they want to run the Government. It won't be about how

:41:48. > :41:50.much people connect. They want to know who is going to be best to be

:41:51. > :41:55.Prime Minister. John, we have to move on in a moment. I want to ask

:41:56. > :41:59.you before we do, would you like to see changes at the top? Do you think

:42:00. > :42:03.Douglas Alexander should still be in charge of the campaign as election

:42:04. > :42:09.approaches? Douglas needs to get straight on the train to Scotland

:42:10. > :42:12.today and make sure we get a resounding referendum victory there.

:42:13. > :42:16.If that happens, then he should carry on. That's where he ought to

:42:17. > :42:21.be for the next few months, making sure that Scotland votes in a

:42:22. > :42:26.Scottish MP in very large proportions to stay in the UK. You

:42:27. > :42:30.would rather he was sent off to Scotland and wasn't in charge of

:42:31. > :42:35.Labour's campaign for England, Wales and the rest? If I was Douglas

:42:36. > :42:38.Alexander I would be Sebbed Sebbeding -- sending myself to

:42:39. > :42:42.Scotland to ensure my constituency voted in high numbers to stay in the

:42:43. > :42:46.UK and that's vital that all Labour Scottish MPs are doing that over the

:42:47. > :42:54.next two months. OK, let's take a pause there and have a look, thank

:42:55. > :42:55.you for joining us, let's have a look at the Liberal Democrats with

:42:56. > :43:02.Jeremy. You asked me a question about the

:43:03. > :43:07.Lib Dem vote and the fact it was diving but it was seen to be more

:43:08. > :43:09.vulnerable in areas that they held, which is almost the reverse of what

:43:10. > :43:15.we have seen with the Liberal Democrats before. You said which

:43:16. > :43:19.seats are in danger? We would have to put things through a machine to

:43:20. > :43:23.work out the answer. Finally I am answering with specific answers.

:43:24. > :43:27.Which Lib Dem seats nr danger, if this dive in their vote not only,

:43:28. > :43:31.Which Lib Dem seats nr danger, if not restricted to non-Lib Dem areas,

:43:32. > :43:38.it's worse in their own areas? Here is the map just to show sow far.

:43:39. > :43:44.About 50 councils to go. Let's take you to our virtual House of Commons.

:43:45. > :43:47.Let's look at specific seats. Over here we are going to list some

:43:48. > :43:51.Lib Dem seats and see what happens if the kind of voting patterns in

:43:52. > :43:54.these local elections is transferred to the general election. The first

:43:55. > :44:00.one, you will recognise this, he was a guest earlier, Vince Cable. That's

:44:01. > :44:04.his seat. Classic area of Conservative-Lib Dem, back and

:44:05. > :44:06.forth. Vince Cable took it and has held it

:44:07. > :44:15.since. What would happen if this was

:44:16. > :44:16.repeated next year? In this tight two-way marginal the Conservatives

:44:17. > :44:32.would be back in. He has to rely on name power. Maybe

:44:33. > :44:35.the lesson of all these results is name power doesn't cut it any more

:44:36. > :44:44.for the Lib Dems because they're being bashed everywhere. Another

:44:45. > :44:49.seat, let's have a look. Here we go. Another guest we had in the studio,

:44:50. > :44:53.Lynne Featherstone. Let's see what's happening in her seat. We talked

:44:54. > :44:58.about London and UKIP not doing so well in the London area. Look at

:44:59. > :45:03.UKIP, low down here. If you transfer the local votes into this

:45:04. > :45:09.constituency she loses by more than 10% to Labour. Again a story of the

:45:10. > :45:18.Lib Dems not protected in their own strongest areas. For some reason the

:45:19. > :45:21.anti-Lib Dem effect is accentuated. Another one for you, will this be

:45:22. > :45:28.somebody who was a guest as well? Seems to be a pattern. This is

:45:29. > :45:33.Solihull. This again is back and forth. This was Conservative for a

:45:34. > :45:40.long time. West Midlands, prosperous, it was won back by the

:45:41. > :45:43.narrowest of margins. The Lib Dems are going to be worried about these

:45:44. > :45:48.figures. This is not just the Conservatives edging it. This is a

:45:49. > :45:51.thumping victory for the Conservatives, if it happens and

:45:52. > :46:05.these local patterns are repeated. They may not be. 23% to them in

:46:06. > :46:10.their seat. Greens Greens with 14%. One more fou, answering the question

:46:11. > :46:14.about which Len dems have to sweat the most -- Lib Dems have to sweat

:46:15. > :46:19.the most about these results. Cambridge. This is an interesting

:46:20. > :46:24.one. Cambridge got a big student vote. Students are particularly

:46:25. > :46:35.angry about the reverse on tuition fees proposal which may be what

:46:36. > :46:43.moved the seat initially. Conservatives pretty much know where

:46:44. > :46:46.they are here. The Greens on 15%. A margin between Labour and the

:46:47. > :46:48.Liberal Democrats. So there we are, an answer for you, David, on the

:46:49. > :46:51.question of where the an answer for you, David, on the

:46:52. > :46:58.should worry the most. There are quite a few places where MPs will

:46:59. > :47:02.think that this is now very tricky. I wish you had been able to tell me

:47:03. > :47:10.that when Vince Cable was here. He is usually sad-faced but he would

:47:11. > :47:12.have gone gloomy indeed! I could not have given you those two hours ago!

:47:13. > :47:20.Sorry. It is interesting. We have been

:47:21. > :47:26.joined by Danny Alexander, a Scottish MP. He does not have local

:47:27. > :47:31.elections going on. But it is a gloomy picture for the Liberal

:47:32. > :47:35.Democrats as a whole that we are watching today? Well, the whole does

:47:36. > :47:43.not bear out. If you look in places like Sutton and Cheam, like

:47:44. > :47:48.Carshalton, we took a seat from Labour in Redcar. I gather picking

:47:49. > :47:56.up seats in Cheltenham, Bournemouth, holding back in Kingsley.

:47:57. > :47:59.By and large, in the places where we are strong, where there is

:48:00. > :48:04.parliamentary and council strength and where we get the message across,

:48:05. > :48:10.especially about what we are achieving in Government, cutting

:48:11. > :48:13.income tax for working people, expanding apprenticeships, so on,

:48:14. > :48:20.and building the vote. Of course, there are places where we have not

:48:21. > :48:23.done so well. It is a tragedy for every hard-working Liberal Democrat

:48:24. > :48:27.councillor, for those who have lost their seats today, that is bad news

:48:28. > :48:32.for everybody. But Danny, you know as well as I do,

:48:33. > :48:37.the point of the results, the mass of results across England is not to

:48:38. > :48:41.say we did OK there... It is what the overall pattern tells us about

:48:42. > :48:49.what the Liberal Democrats are standing. Where the general election

:48:50. > :48:55.is just over 11 months away it is there that the problem lies.

:48:56. > :49:05.Professor Jane Green, what do you say to Danny? Liberal Democrat

:49:06. > :49:07.supports is more row dust in the general elections but an interesting

:49:08. > :49:11.thing about the constituencies for next year is of course if we are

:49:12. > :49:15.think being where the Liberal Democrats may be vulnerable to UKIP,

:49:16. > :49:21.we have to remember again that UKIP was not in second place or third

:49:22. > :49:26.place, even, in many parliamentary constituencies last time. There were

:49:27. > :49:32.about six constituencies where the UKIP came second place. Four were

:49:33. > :49:37.strong Labour majorities, one a softer Labour majority in Rotherham

:49:38. > :49:41.where UKIP are doing well. That is one to watch. The other is

:49:42. > :49:44.Eastleigh, which is a Liberal Democrat-held seat.

:49:45. > :49:50.But is not the reality, that the Liberal Democrats, if they are to

:49:51. > :49:53.suffer will suffer at the hands of the Liberal Democrats? That is

:49:54. > :49:57.interesting. One of the things that we can see obviously is that the

:49:58. > :50:01.UKIP support is coming, mainly from the Conservatives. Over 50% from the

:50:02. > :50:06.Conservatives, when we looked the last time but also from the Lib

:50:07. > :50:10.Demes and from Labour. Where the Liberal Democrat vote is going is to

:50:11. > :50:17.the Greens. We have not spoken about that yet. But a lot of support going

:50:18. > :50:20.that party which has not formed a coalition government and that has

:50:21. > :50:26.not been popular for the Lib Demes, as I am sure that you will know.

:50:27. > :50:31.Jeremy, you can come in on this. Out of the grass we started to show,

:50:32. > :50:34.we started to notice the effect, where we expected the Liberal

:50:35. > :50:38.Democrats to be less damaged in Liberal Democrat areas but they were

:50:39. > :50:42.more damaged. Maybe your supporters are more angry with you but we

:50:43. > :50:47.thought what is going on there? The answers to the questions around the

:50:48. > :50:50.panel, well, Lib Demes are brilliant at campaigning inside their areas,

:50:51. > :50:55.they zone, target. But this suggests that you are taking a hit. So we now

:50:56. > :50:59.have this list of seats. That is how we got to that? I understand that.

:51:00. > :51:03.But I think that I would say that if you are looking forward to the

:51:04. > :51:07.general election, of course you are right, that is what many people will

:51:08. > :51:11.be doing, taking the results as a whole, in the places I have

:51:12. > :51:20.mentioned, and others besides, we still have results to come in. South

:51:21. > :51:23.Lakeland, Cheltenham, various playerses where the Lib Dems are

:51:24. > :51:27.strong, I think that in those places we are more than holding our own.

:51:28. > :51:32.When you talk about not expecting this but if you compare the

:51:33. > :51:37.performance so far, to the predictions, it looks like we are

:51:38. > :51:41.doing better than the central forecast was before these local

:51:42. > :51:45.elections. Of course there are places where we would have liked to

:51:46. > :51:49.have you been Doncaster. In some places there are national factors,

:51:50. > :51:54.in some places there are local factors, such as in the Kingston

:51:55. > :52:00.council for example. But the lesson is where we have parliamentary and

:52:01. > :52:06.council strength to get the message across consistently, nationally and

:52:07. > :52:09.at a local level and then we can and are succeeding in persuading people

:52:10. > :52:14.in sometimes more numbers than before, to vote for us.

:52:15. > :52:19.It is true that the benchmark for you, you were expected to lose 350

:52:20. > :52:24.councillors, you are down at the moment 169.

:52:25. > :52:28.It is also true that the last council election results from the

:52:29. > :52:32.Lib Demes were extremely bad. So to go down from that level is something

:52:33. > :52:38.that the opinion polls as a whole may not have predicted. So I do

:52:39. > :52:45.think it is a bad night. I don't want to us lose a single

:52:46. > :52:52.councillor. We have brilliant councillors who have done amazing

:52:53. > :52:56.work. But it is true in Government, in parties, that they tend to see

:52:57. > :53:00.themselves knocked back in local elections. That is what we have seen

:53:01. > :53:05.in three years, we are seeing it again perhaps to a lesser extent

:53:06. > :53:09.here and it shows we have to work harder to get the message across

:53:10. > :53:13.about how we are rescuing the economy, about how to ensure that

:53:14. > :53:17.the benefits are being shared. That is something we have to work hard to

:53:18. > :53:23.get across. All of the losses are painful for

:53:24. > :53:29.those involved... And for the party nationally. I am sure it is true for

:53:30. > :53:34.other parties... I want to go to Grimsby and join Austin Mitchell,

:53:35. > :53:40.the MP who is standing down as the Labour MP. He has watched Labour

:53:41. > :53:45.losing control of the council. That is the North East Lincolnshire

:53:46. > :53:52.council, Austin, why has it happened? What is your reaction to

:53:53. > :53:56.it? What has it led to? Well, we have not actually lost control!

:53:57. > :54:00.Labour has done better than expected. People were fearing that

:54:01. > :54:05.we would lose council seats over the whole country but we have gained

:54:06. > :54:12.about 170. This is not a bad result. You should be concentrating on

:54:13. > :54:17.UKIP's results, actually. That was more or less as expected. Outside of

:54:18. > :54:21.London, and UKIP has not done well in London, London is doing better

:54:22. > :54:27.than the rest of the country, damn it! But outside of London there is a

:54:28. > :54:33.good deal of discontent, working people, the manual wages have not

:54:34. > :54:39.increased, the share of GDP going down, the cuts, the local government

:54:40. > :54:44.services contracted. And a general feeling over the whole country, and

:54:45. > :54:48.especially so in the north of disgruntlement, we are fed up! You

:54:49. > :54:53.say that North East Lincolnshire Labour has not lost control but you

:54:54. > :54:56.are short by one of an overall majority according to the figures.

:54:57. > :55:03.So you have lost control. It does not mean you will not go on running

:55:04. > :55:08.the council, I agree, you will do a deal with someone, I don't know who

:55:09. > :55:12.but you will? Yes. We will continue to run north-east North East

:55:13. > :55:16.Lincolnshire, despite the opposition that Government is putting in our

:55:17. > :55:22.way. But the point is not that we control or don't control the area,

:55:23. > :55:25.it is the fact that the Labour Party has done better than people were

:55:26. > :55:31.expecting and the fact that UKIP will be a temporary phenomena, that

:55:32. > :55:34.will split, argue and divide on the council and possibly even in Europe,

:55:35. > :55:41.so the interesting thing about the election is the fact that the

:55:42. > :55:50.electorate has said to both main parties, " a plague on both your

:55:51. > :55:55.houses! " So they have voted for this Millwall party in UKIP. Why?

:55:56. > :56:02.Because they are fed up. Just for you, this is for you, John

:56:03. > :56:06.Curtis who I know you believe and trust and understands all of these

:56:07. > :56:14.things, says that on the figures that have come in, Great Grimsby

:56:15. > :56:18.will go to UKIP at the general election.

:56:19. > :56:22.I doubt it. That is not true. That is what he says.

:56:23. > :56:27.I think personally we in the Labour Party should have offered a

:56:28. > :56:31.referendum but a referendum now, not the confidence trick that David

:56:32. > :56:39.Cameron is offering in 2017. That is the same confidence trick we pulled

:56:40. > :56:44.in 197... 1975. We offered a renegotiation and a referendum. It

:56:45. > :56:48.won't work. We should have offered a referendum now. Not because it will

:56:49. > :56:54.win votes but because it is right that the people should be consulted

:56:55. > :56:59.and should have their say. Do they want this floundering mess called

:57:00. > :57:03.Europe, which is the low-growth, high on employment black spot of the

:57:04. > :57:08.world, thanks to the euro, or do they want to trade with the world?

:57:09. > :57:13.The figures that we have for Great Grimsby are clear. This is the first

:57:14. > :57:17.parliamentary constituency that we have been able to break down through

:57:18. > :57:23.the wards. It does show UKIP coming out on top.

:57:24. > :57:26.Well, this is a hypothetical construct on a surge that is a year

:57:27. > :57:32.away from the general election. I don't believe it. I think we shall

:57:33. > :57:35.hold Grimsby, I hope we do. If we don't there will not ab ab-Labour

:57:36. > :57:41.Government and I think that there will be. I don't want to argue about

:57:42. > :57:46.hypotheticals, you confront me with the figures in Grimsby, I feel are

:57:47. > :57:52.distorted at the present moment by the surge of discontent. You felt it

:57:53. > :57:56.going around. But also it felt like it was an awful day yesterday,

:57:57. > :58:00.pouring with rain that people were not bothering to turn out and to

:58:01. > :58:04.vote. The vote was low. Don't project anything on that.

:58:05. > :58:08.But you would like to see Ed Miliband offer a straightforward

:58:09. > :58:14.referendum, not like the Harold Wilson one that you were covering as

:58:15. > :58:20.a BBC reporter at the time with a little titivating ITV. You were

:58:21. > :58:24.everywhere before you became an MP. You were a little titivating... On

:58:25. > :58:27.which I voted against membership in 1975.

:58:28. > :58:32.But you would would like a straight in or out referendum? We did say we

:58:33. > :58:37.would offer a referendum. We then said, stupidly, in my view, that a

:58:38. > :58:41.treaty was not a new institution. It was just a lie, it was. In all

:58:42. > :58:45.honesty we should have offered a referendum.

:58:46. > :58:50.That diminishes our integrity, I think. But I have to say, I am not

:58:51. > :58:55.saying we should offer a referendum to win votes. I don't think at that

:58:56. > :59:01.it would have won votes or stopped the surge to Europe but it would

:59:02. > :59:06.have made us consistent and honest. Austin Mitchell, #245e67. What do

:59:07. > :59:11.you -- muchally, thank you very much. What do you say to that?

:59:12. > :59:15.Austin voted against membership in 1975, the year I was born, he has

:59:16. > :59:19.been around for a while. He is consistent in his opposition to

:59:20. > :59:23.Europe. We have set that option up clearly. If there is a transfer of

:59:24. > :59:27.powers we will have the in and out referendum. But there are two

:59:28. > :59:32.options, do what David Cameron does, which is to live in total fear of a

:59:33. > :59:38.bunch of people on the backbenchers and to be constantly, through

:59:39. > :59:44.weakness, thinking what do we do with referendum? -- UKIP? When do we

:59:45. > :59:50.give them a referendum? This is a beast. All it does is puts a:

:59:51. > :59:54.Britain is closed for business sign on the country. You have to do the

:59:55. > :59:57.right thing by the country. You chose to block a bill that would

:59:58. > :00:01.have allowed the people of the United Kingdom in 2017 guaranteed a

:00:02. > :00:05.referendum. You and the Liberal Democrats chose to block that bill

:00:06. > :00:09.in the House of Lords. I think you should trust the people and give

:00:10. > :00:15.them a chance. Austin Mitchell made a brilliant case of voting

:00:16. > :00:18.Conservative in the next election. But referendums are risky for

:00:19. > :00:23.politicians. If you look at what people would do if they have a

:00:24. > :00:28.referendum tomorrow on membership of the European Union, 40% would vote

:00:29. > :00:33."yes", 40% would vote "no" with the others to make up their minds It is

:00:34. > :00:37.shocking democracy, as a participant, I think you should

:00:38. > :00:43.trust the people. Danny Alexander? We are having a referendum in

:00:44. > :00:49.Scotland in a few months' time. That is the next, the most important vote

:00:50. > :00:55.I will cast in my political lifetime. The vote to decide on

:00:56. > :00:58.whether Scotland stays in the UK. It is right to have a referendum.

:00:59. > :01:02.Why is it OK to give the Scots a view on whether they should remain

:01:03. > :01:05.in the United Kingdom but not give the whole of the United Kingdom a

:01:06. > :01:13.chance to say whether they should remain in the European Union? We

:01:14. > :01:16.have said we would have a referendum in the terms of the legislation that

:01:17. > :01:20.we have passed in this parliament. We passed a bill for the first time

:01:21. > :01:24.which means there is a referendum guaranteed the next time and any

:01:25. > :01:27.time there is a development, a treaty change, something that takes

:01:28. > :01:32.us deeper into Europe, that's the right way of handling it. We stand

:01:33. > :01:41.by - Eric and I both voted for this legislation. I think it's the right

:01:42. > :01:51.way to handle it. You did fight the last general election on an in/out

:01:52. > :02:01.vote on Europe. It's in the museum, the Lib Dem manifesto. I am grateful

:02:02. > :02:06.for your support, as always, but what I would say is that the idea

:02:07. > :02:10.that we should spend the first two years of the parliament in a game of

:02:11. > :02:16.renegotiation with the European Union, that tries to repatriot

:02:17. > :02:19.various powers is the wrong way to go about it. When the next time

:02:20. > :02:25.there is a treaty change, let's have a referendum then. Let's go on.

:02:26. > :02:29.Oxford have held on to Labour. Now there is a bank holiday coming up on

:02:30. > :02:33.Monday. We have the European election results on Sunday. We will

:02:34. > :02:40.be broadcasting until early on Monday morning. We may enjoy the

:02:41. > :02:45.second half of the bank holiday, so let's look at the weather.

:02:46. > :02:51.Good afternoon. You are right, it's a bank holiday weekend and of course

:02:52. > :02:54.that's going to mean the forecast is never particularly straightforward.

:02:55. > :02:59.This afternoon it's more of what we have been seeing the last few days,

:03:00. > :03:02.showers causing headaches. Some spots are doing better in terms of

:03:03. > :03:05.sunny spells. Quite a cluster of heavy showers now pushing out of

:03:06. > :03:09.central and southern England across the Midlands and they'll head to

:03:10. > :03:12.Wales for the evening. I think we will see some also affecting parts

:03:13. > :03:18.of the south-west of England. Generally, the further east you are

:03:19. > :03:21.the more likely you are to stay dry this afternoon. Much improved across

:03:22. > :03:26.parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. For the evening rush hour

:03:27. > :03:32.look out for the odd heavy downpour across the south-west, it could

:03:33. > :03:36.produce a lot of rain in a short space of time. Similar story across

:03:37. > :03:41.Wales and parts of northern England. Generally more cloud around across

:03:42. > :03:44.northern England. Clouding up across Northern Ireland and light rain in

:03:45. > :03:48.the east through the evening. A few showers to southern Scotland with

:03:49. > :03:53.thickening cloud. The east does look much improved on yesterday evening,

:03:54. > :03:57.lighter winds and there might be cloud but it's dryer. Sunshine for

:03:58. > :04:03.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire but a risk of storms here. For the

:04:04. > :04:06.south-east a slim chance of a shower but overall quiet as the afternoon

:04:07. > :04:10.comes to an end but through the evening again there could be a few

:04:11. > :04:13.showers and something to bear in mind especially if you are heading

:04:14. > :04:16.on to the roads. Wales clearer through the small hours. The heavy

:04:17. > :04:21.rain heads to Northern Ireland. It will be a wet start for the weekend

:04:22. > :04:25.here, intense rain around first thing on Saturday. But the bonus

:04:26. > :04:28.will be that rain gets out of the way quickly through the morning. For

:04:29. > :04:33.the afternoon Northern Ireland not looking too bad along with Scotland.

:04:34. > :04:41.England and Wales, though, after a respite with

:04:42. > :04:47.showers again. Scotland and Northern Ireland are

:04:48. > :04:52.driest and brightest on Saturday. Sunday we shift everything further

:04:53. > :04:58.north. England and Wales in for a dryer and brighter day. Bank holiday

:04:59. > :05:03.Monday, still questions about the forecast, perhaps this map is a bit

:05:04. > :05:09.pessimistic. Some showers to the east, but for many it won't be too

:05:10. > :05:13.bad a day at all. To sum up the weekend, useable weather for all of

:05:14. > :05:17.us at some stage but it's the detail that's difficult. Keep up to date on

:05:18. > :05:21.the website. Now let's keep up to date with the elections, back to

:05:22. > :05:34.Vote 2014. Thank you very much. Here the

:05:35. > :05:38.weather stays the same all the time, hot and a bit muggy. So welcome

:05:39. > :05:42.back. This is the place to be! No rain on the roads here. A lot of

:05:43. > :05:45.rain on the roads here actually as politicians skid around and we skid

:05:46. > :05:48.around trying to make sense of the results that we are getting in. We

:05:49. > :05:52.are getting a clear picture now of how the main parties have been

:05:53. > :05:58.doing. We are going to be in Harrow in a moment, where Labour are trying

:05:59. > :06:01.to regain control. They had a split in the Labour group. We will be in

:06:02. > :06:05.Cheltenham, many other places to come in. Liberal Democrats trying to

:06:06. > :06:09.hold off a Tory challenge. They also hold the parliamentary seat there

:06:10. > :06:14.which they'll be keen to see reflected in whatever happens in

:06:15. > :06:20.Cheltenham. We have a lot more to talk about and more results to come

:06:21. > :06:25.in. Let's have the news first. David, thank you very much. Good

:06:26. > :06:28.afternoon. Our main story is that the UKIP leader Nigel Farage says

:06:29. > :06:32.the main political parties are running scared after his party made

:06:33. > :06:37.significant gains in local councils in England. Labour didn't do as well

:06:38. > :06:41.as it had hoped. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats lost dozens of

:06:42. > :06:45.seats. With about three-quarters of all seats now counted, our political

:06:46. > :06:51.correspondent Iain Watson looks at the story so far. This report

:06:52. > :06:55.contains some flash photography. He promised a political earthquake

:06:56. > :06:58.and even though his party hasn't won control of any councils, they've

:06:59. > :07:02.done well enough to send shockwaves through the more established

:07:03. > :07:06.parties. They caused upsets from Yorkshire to Essex, depriving the

:07:07. > :07:11.Conservatives of control in Basildon and Labour here in Thurrock. The

:07:12. > :07:15.political class have been comforting themselves, it's just a protest vote

:07:16. > :07:20.it will go away. They said it in 2009. They said it after Eastleigh.

:07:21. > :07:23.They said it after the English County elections last year. After

:07:24. > :07:30.this result they'll say it's a protest. It looks like a permanent

:07:31. > :07:33.protest. It provoked for a pact at the next general election. The Prime

:07:34. > :07:36.Minister dismissed this. We are the Conservative Party, we don't do

:07:37. > :07:40.pacts and deals. We are fighting all-out for a win at the next

:07:41. > :07:45.election. Of course last night we lost some good councillors but our

:07:46. > :07:51.vote share was up from last year. Labour clearly gained more seats

:07:52. > :07:53.than any other party, around 150 and performed particularly well in areas

:07:54. > :07:57.where UKIP are weak, here in Cambridge. And in London, Ed

:07:58. > :08:02.Miliband celebrated in Redbridge in the east of the city. The reason we

:08:03. > :08:07.won here was because of the deep discontent there is in the country

:08:08. > :08:13.and the deep desire for change. We also know that UKIP made gains in

:08:14. > :08:18.this election. For some people that discontent with the country, that

:08:19. > :08:21.desire for change meant they turned to UKIP. But Labour didn't do as

:08:22. > :08:25.well as expected in some parts of England. The share of the vote is

:08:26. > :08:27.around three points higher than the general election performance. Some

:08:28. > :08:31.of their MPs believe the party should be doing better if they're to

:08:32. > :08:35.form the next Government. The Conservatives have lost more than

:08:36. > :08:38.140 councillors, they had some consolation in seeing Labour off in

:08:39. > :08:45.Swindon and claiming victory against the Lib Dems in Kingston in London.

:08:46. > :08:49.It's never easy to see dedicated, hard-working Liberal Democrats lose

:08:50. > :08:53.ground. But actually in the areas where we have MPs, where we have

:08:54. > :08:57.good organisation on the ground, we can get our message across, you

:08:58. > :09:00.know, we are doing well. Based on their performance in the council

:09:01. > :09:04.elections, UKIP are confident of doing well when the results of the

:09:05. > :09:08.European elections are announced on Sunday night. If they send more

:09:09. > :09:11.tremors through the political establishment, then the more

:09:12. > :09:14.traditional political parties will have to decide how to respond.

:09:15. > :09:21.Should they move closer to UKIP's territory on Europe and immigration?

:09:22. > :09:26.Or should they stand their ground? In other news, the world famous

:09:27. > :09:36.Glasgow School of Art, Rennie McIntosh building is on fire. Rescue

:09:37. > :09:41.teams were called at about 12. 30pm. The building was evacuated. Students

:09:42. > :09:45.have told the BBC the fire began after a projector exploded in the

:09:46. > :09:48.basement as they were preparing for an end of year show.

:09:49. > :09:51.The families of four British sailors missing in the Atlantic have gone

:09:52. > :09:59.into another meeting at the Foreign Office. An RAF search team will

:10:00. > :10:02.continue looking for the four men until late tomorrow night. The four

:10:03. > :10:06.haven't been heard from since the end of last week. The US coastguard

:10:07. > :10:11.says it will end its operation overnight if nothing has been found.

:10:12. > :10:15.The former BBC broadcaster Stuart Hall has been sentenced to

:10:16. > :10:19.two-and-a-half years in prison for two counts of indecently assaulting

:10:20. > :10:23.an underage girl. He is already in prison for indecent assault. The new

:10:24. > :10:29.sentence will run consecutively, hall, who is 84, was found guilty of

:10:30. > :10:33.one count of indecent assault last week and had admitted indecently

:10:34. > :10:37.assaulting the same girl when she was 13.

:10:38. > :10:41.Thailand's former Prime Minister and her family have been detained by the

:10:42. > :10:45.military one day after it took power in a coup. There have been small

:10:46. > :10:49.protests in Bangkok against the coup. Despite a ban on

:10:50. > :10:53.demonstrations. More than 100 political and military figures have

:10:54. > :10:57.been ordered to report to the army for face arrest.

:10:58. > :11:02.Those are the main stories here. Back to David.

:11:03. > :11:06.Thank you very much. Emily, shall we catch up with councillors and how

:11:07. > :11:12.things stand against the predictions for the parties and see how well

:11:13. > :11:15.everybody's doing or how badly? 116 councils in, we are

:11:16. > :11:19.three-quarters of the way through. This is the scoreboard for the whole

:11:20. > :11:23.of England. We will show you regional variations later.

:11:24. > :11:28.Hits being taken by the Conservatives and much worse by the

:11:29. > :11:36.Lib Dems proportional to what they have. Big gains for UKIP, 129. I

:11:37. > :11:41.will show you what we have in others. The green Party will be

:11:42. > :11:45.pleased with results. Since we have Danny Alexander here

:11:46. > :11:50.we can talk a little about the Lib Dems, the places that they were

:11:51. > :11:55.defending tonight. This was the list at the beginning of the night, or

:11:56. > :11:59.the day. You can see the places where they've lost out. Kingston has

:12:00. > :12:06.gone blue. The Conservatives have taken this. It was marginal but Ed

:12:07. > :12:14.Davey's seat as an MP there, wonder if he will be concerned. Portsmouth,

:12:15. > :12:19.we saw the UKIP vote cut in. These are the places where they've held

:12:20. > :12:24.on. They'll be relieved in Sutton. Eastleigh impossible for them to

:12:25. > :12:29.lose. We don't know about Cheltenham yet. We are seeing the Lib Dem share

:12:30. > :12:33.of the vote holding up against the Tory vote or at least dropping less

:12:34. > :12:37.quickly than the Tory vote in places where they are fighting the Tories.

:12:38. > :12:40.If I just take you to some of the other results we have got you can

:12:41. > :12:44.see how the Lib Dems are faring against Labour. This is where Labour

:12:45. > :12:47.is really pushing ahead. This is where the Lib Dems are really

:12:48. > :13:01.starting to feel the pain. Let me take you to Wirral. Labour on 36 -

:13:02. > :13:04.sorry now on 38. I am going to show you a pattern that is beginning to

:13:05. > :13:08.emerge now. If you look at this you say not much, the Lib Dems have lost

:13:09. > :13:13.one, don't make a big deal of it, but what we can do is go back and

:13:14. > :13:19.now you can see a pattern starting to emerge since the general

:13:20. > :13:24.election. Why do I say that? These elections are fought in thirds. This

:13:25. > :13:30.is the end of the political cycle. What's happened to that trajectory?

:13:31. > :13:34.The Labour Party picking up seats against the Lib Dems which is seeing

:13:35. > :13:42.this continual downward slide. It's not just the Wirral. If we go to the

:13:43. > :13:46.north-west and Rossendale. Overnight it looks as if there isn't a lot of

:13:47. > :13:50.change. But when I start to go back and show you those last four years

:13:51. > :14:00.you can see the patterns beginning to emerge. It's happening in Sefton,

:14:01. > :14:05.as well. That Lib Dem share of the vote, this is what's happen

:14:06. > :14:10.happening overnight. This is what's happening when you go back four

:14:11. > :14:13.years. Labour up 17. Lib Dems down 11. You won't see these as headline

:14:14. > :14:16.figures because they were all Labour, they're staunchly Labour and

:14:17. > :14:20.have remained Labour. But what this means is that the foot soldiers in

:14:21. > :14:22.places where Lib Dems need to feel they're clinging on is not really

:14:23. > :14:32.happening. So, you are watching that carefully,

:14:33. > :14:36.Danny Alexander, do you agree with the analysis? It shows over the last

:14:37. > :14:41.three or four years we have lost council seats in election, that's

:14:42. > :14:44.true, it happens to parties in Government. It has happened to the

:14:45. > :14:49.Conservative Party. It happened to Labour for their 13 years in office.

:14:50. > :14:59.But Emily could have mentioned Gateshead where we held to all our

:15:00. > :15:04.councillors, she could have mentioned Kirklees, redcar. So,

:15:05. > :15:09.there are really difficult stories in some places but actually I also

:15:10. > :15:11.think that in these elections we are seeing hard-working Liberal Democrat

:15:12. > :15:17.councillors, especially in areas where we also have Members of

:15:18. > :15:22.Parliament, and Emily gave us a full list of councils there. Both in

:15:23. > :15:26.Kingston and in Portsmouth some specific local factors going on. I

:15:27. > :15:29.think that those results and those councils show in places where we

:15:30. > :15:33.have MPs and a council strength and we work hard to get our message

:15:34. > :15:35.across locally and about what we are achieving in Government, the

:15:36. > :15:38.difference that Liberal Democrats are making to this country, actually

:15:39. > :15:51.we can maintain and even grow our support. Eric, we have been joined

:15:52. > :15:57.by the man how's hour it is. Nigel Farage. Thank you for joining us,

:15:58. > :16:02.and I suppose, firstly, congratulations on the UKIP result.

:16:03. > :16:05.Which is extraordinary. At least everyone is talking about it. How

:16:06. > :16:09.many seats do you think you will get in the European Parliament as a

:16:10. > :16:13.result of this? Well, I have been saying for three-and-a-half years I

:16:14. > :16:17.wanted to cause an earthquake in British politics, we have seen the

:16:18. > :16:21.tremors today. I will not count the chickens before they have hatched.

:16:22. > :16:26.But the signs are encouraging. My focus is not the number of seats we

:16:27. > :16:29.win is can we topple poll across the United Kingdom. That is the marker I

:16:30. > :16:34.am looking towards. Do you think that you will? I do,

:16:35. > :16:40.yes. I do. I am sticking my neck out but

:16:41. > :16:42.yes, I do. It may be tight but I think that we are going to get

:16:43. > :16:48.there. So, what is the future for UKIP now.

:16:49. > :16:52.We heard you in Thurrock, unless I misheard you, you were asked if you

:16:53. > :16:58.would stand yourself. You said they would not want you there, I think

:16:59. > :17:02.so. Are you going to stand? I am from south of the river. They would

:17:03. > :17:07.not have me. They would not need me. We have very good members of UKIP in

:17:08. > :17:11.Essex. We did well in the County Council elections, we have done very

:17:12. > :17:15.well in the district council elections and there are seats in

:17:16. > :17:19.Essex that are absolutely winnable for us in a general election next

:17:20. > :17:23.year. I have not decided what I am going to do. I will choose a seat

:17:24. > :17:28.but it will be south of the river. You will choose a parliamentary

:17:29. > :17:32.constituency to fight? Yes, I will. Absolutely. What we are going to do,

:17:33. > :17:37.overthe course of the summer is we are looking at the results, looking

:17:38. > :17:42.at last year's results and choose a number of target constituencies. We

:17:43. > :17:48.will do exactly what the Lib Demes did in the 1990s, and choose the

:17:49. > :17:55.seats. One great measure will be do we have the district and the County

:17:56. > :17:58.Councillors? Have we proved first-past-the-post we can succeed

:17:59. > :18:02.in the constituencies? And once we have done that and the human

:18:03. > :18:07.resources, it will be targeted towards the seats. You have 11

:18:08. > :18:12.months to produce not just a simple story that you have been producing

:18:13. > :18:17.up to now about immigration and leaving the European Union but a

:18:18. > :18:22.whole range of topics you have to defend on the doorstep. You yourself

:18:23. > :18:29.said in as many words that the last manifesto was rubbish, you did not

:18:30. > :18:32.bother to do t -- to read it. How can you produce a serious platform

:18:33. > :18:41.for a political party which is not just about UKIP pulling out of the

:18:42. > :18:47.EU or arguing for that? Well, well don't think that the immigration

:18:48. > :18:50.issue, that is number one in the issue stakes, don't think that is

:18:51. > :18:54.going to go away. I think that the plight of the eurozone is such that

:18:55. > :19:00.immigration will be a bigger question by the time of the jest

:19:01. > :19:07.than last Thursday. But we have laid out principles on energy pricing,

:19:08. > :19:13.wind energy, renewables, grammer schools, social mobility. Taking

:19:14. > :19:18.people out of tax if they are earning the minimum wage. Sure we

:19:19. > :19:23.scrapped the last manifesto but so have the other parties. Nobody can

:19:24. > :19:27.tell you what their manifesto is, so I accept there are challenges. We

:19:28. > :19:32.have to reorganise. Get the manifesto right. Choose the target

:19:33. > :19:35.seats and the right people and professionalise yet more the centre

:19:36. > :19:39.of the party. There are big challenges but I think that the

:19:40. > :19:43.party has the energy and the enthusiasm to do it.

:19:44. > :19:48.On the other hand the three parties damaged or potentially damaged by

:19:49. > :19:52.you are presumably also deciding how they will reply to UKIP's challenge,

:19:53. > :19:58.in effect. Would you feel that your job was done if the other three

:19:59. > :20:03.parties or anyone of them changed their attitude on some of the

:20:04. > :20:08.issues, you could be seen as a party of protest this had your protest and

:20:09. > :20:12.then succeeded as the political attitudes of Westminster had

:20:13. > :20:17.changed? Well if the Conservative Party or the Labour Party said that

:20:18. > :20:21.they realised that they had been wrong, that as a result of the EU

:20:22. > :20:28.membership they are impotent. There is nothing to do to deal with the

:20:29. > :20:32.immigration numbers, nothing to do with imemployment regulation,

:20:33. > :20:36.nothing to do with regards to environmental targets with on shore

:20:37. > :20:42.and or shore wind farms, if they came clean with the British public

:20:43. > :20:46.saying to accept to be in an organisation that makes 57% of the

:20:47. > :20:50.laws makes no sense if someone from the Labour Party or the Conservative

:20:51. > :20:54.Party said that, our job would be done. But they appear determined.

:20:55. > :20:58.The three parties, the legacy parties, as I call them, they appear

:20:59. > :21:03.determined to maintain the membership of the European Union, so

:21:04. > :21:06.actually, our view is opposed to them on most of the big issues of

:21:07. > :21:12.the day. We have had voices from the

:21:13. > :21:17.Conservative Party saying that the right thing for the Conservatives to

:21:18. > :21:21.do is to love bomb you. To embrace you and bring you in with them so

:21:22. > :21:26.that you and they brought all of the people who feel like you and they do

:21:27. > :21:30.or like many of their supporters do, to bring them all back to one party,

:21:31. > :21:35.to stand together at the general election. Is that still even a

:21:36. > :21:41.remote possibility? Is that one you would welcome? I don't think it is.

:21:42. > :21:45.The last interview that the Prime Minister gave when asked about UKIP,

:21:46. > :21:51.and remember this guy has form on UKIP, he has called us closet

:21:52. > :21:56.racist, loonies, fruitcakes, goodness knows what else, and the

:21:57. > :22:01.last interview he gave he called us appalling people. I think he thinks

:22:02. > :22:06.we are members of the lower orders, not worthy to be in the room with

:22:07. > :22:10.him so the idea of a pact happening with him while he is leader is

:22:11. > :22:15.unlikely. I am not sure it is desirable. Look at riotam, there is

:22:16. > :22:20.a big Labour vote, a substantial Lib Dem vote and an interesting non-vote

:22:21. > :22:23.for those who have not voted for 20 years, coming to UKIP. I think that

:22:24. > :22:27.one in three of the voters from across the country have come from

:22:28. > :22:35.the Conservatives and most do not want to go back. So it is difficult

:22:36. > :22:39.to see how it would make sense. So I suggest that Jacob Reece-Mogg,

:22:40. > :22:44.Douglas Carswell, they are looking at the politics from the old ideas

:22:45. > :22:50.of left and right, I think that something bigger than that going on.

:22:51. > :22:54.Does David Cameron, Eric Pickles, lock on Nigel Farage as a member of

:22:55. > :23:01.the lower orders, he and his people? I would like to think that I am the

:23:02. > :23:05.authentic voice of the lower orders. I endorse what David Cameron says

:23:06. > :23:10.that there will be no deals with UKIP. I congratulate Nigel Farage

:23:11. > :23:18.but with power comes responsibility and we will see him next year.

:23:19. > :23:23.See him off next year? We well see him next year and see him off next

:23:24. > :23:28.year. What do you say to this, about what is being said about you and all

:23:29. > :23:32.three of you. You are bruised by this? Nigel Farage has had success

:23:33. > :23:36.in traditional Labour areas, I concede that. I think that they are

:23:37. > :23:40.right to some extent in that people, I don't think that UKIP has the

:23:41. > :23:44.answers by the way. That when the people see their policies a lot of

:23:45. > :23:47.working-class people will run a mile. That has not always come

:23:48. > :23:50.across. Hang on, you don't know what the

:23:51. > :23:56.policies are? I think that the success is being in speaking to that

:23:57. > :24:01.discontent that people have got. Not just with politics but normally that

:24:02. > :24:05.is driven by what is happening in the economic circumstances as well.

:24:06. > :24:10.I think Labour has the answers but we need to do a bit more to connect

:24:11. > :24:13.in terms of showing that we understand that discontent and that

:24:14. > :24:19.we have the answers. Nigel Farage is standing patiently.

:24:20. > :24:25.This is an interview that will be stopped by Mr O' Flynn but Nigel

:24:26. > :24:30.Farage, what do you say to that? Eric Pickles says we will be seen

:24:31. > :24:34.off next year, I say to him, we will see you in Westminster. You never

:24:35. > :24:38.know, we may even hold the balance of power. If we do, there will be a

:24:39. > :24:43.referendum. I believe I left business to come to politics, I

:24:44. > :24:47.believe we should abself-governing democratic nation and everyone that

:24:48. > :24:52.votes UKIP believes the same thing. I am sorry but the three parties are

:24:53. > :24:56.hopelessly out of touch with the way that the modern world is going.

:24:57. > :25:01.Danny Alexander, do you want to have a word? I would congratulate Nigel

:25:02. > :25:07.Farage on the successful council results, there is a debate to be had

:25:08. > :25:10.but a debate on the substance. Those of us who believe strongly in

:25:11. > :25:14.Britain's place in the European Union, need the debate.

:25:15. > :25:18.Nick Clegg has done that. We will talk about that on Sunday night on

:25:19. > :25:22.the issue of Europe. The Labour Party chose not to engage in the

:25:23. > :25:26.argument. If we are to have the debate, those of us who believe

:25:27. > :25:31.passionately that Britain should abpart of Europe for reasons of job,

:25:32. > :25:36.employment, making sure we are a strong voice in the world we have to

:25:37. > :25:41.speak up for our view ares, otherwise it is the likes of Nigel

:25:42. > :25:44.Farage that gets the airtime. But does not Nigel Farage standing there

:25:45. > :25:49.represent all of the failings of your three political parties? He is

:25:50. > :25:54.only there because you, the three of you are seen by the voters as having

:25:55. > :25:57.failed them in whatever way? I am sure that Nigel Farage represents

:25:58. > :26:02.himself and not us. But I am saying that we are seeing across the whole

:26:03. > :26:07.of the European Union we are seeing protest movements of various sorts

:26:08. > :26:12.in more or less every major country. With various opinions on things but

:26:13. > :26:15.often around arguments about the European Union, arguments about

:26:16. > :26:19.immigration. I think that we have to get better at making our argument

:26:20. > :26:23.about how in practise we are helping to deal with the problems.

:26:24. > :26:28.My question is does he represent your failure? I would go to

:26:29. > :26:34.Eastleigh to answer that question. Nigel Farage said he was targeting

:26:35. > :26:37.Eastleigh. Looking at the results in Eastleigh, there what a strong

:26:38. > :26:40.performance from the Liberal Democrats, making further progress.

:26:41. > :26:44.UKIP have been telling us that they are going too make a break through

:26:45. > :26:48.in Eastleigh, I want to go down there and see what they have in the

:26:49. > :26:52.Lib Dem campaign there, they have found the best way a to deal with

:26:53. > :26:57.him. You can ask him, he will know what

:26:58. > :27:02.is going on in Eastleigh, go on? Nigel Farage? You are asking me?

:27:03. > :27:07.Yes. Well, in Eastleigh, the Labour vote

:27:08. > :27:11.is down and staying down. That is for certain. The Lib Demes are

:27:12. > :27:16.strong in Eastleigh, they held on well, we are still there as we were

:27:17. > :27:21.in the by-election just a couple of percentage points behind them. There

:27:22. > :27:26.is a stalemate but we are still there we are the contenders next

:27:27. > :27:32.year. But I say this to Danny Alexander, if he wants to go on with

:27:33. > :27:37.the pro-EU position but not trusting the British public by giving them a

:27:38. > :27:42.referendum, all I say is thank you very much, you will prove to be our

:27:43. > :27:45.best recruiting sergeant between now and the general election. Because of

:27:46. > :27:49.that reason, whatever Labour say, by the time May comes along I suspect

:27:50. > :27:54.that they will have changed their position. Nigel Farage thank you

:27:55. > :28:00.very much indeed. Where are you, as a matter of interest? All we can see

:28:01. > :28:04.is a lamppost and parkland? I am outside of the pub in Basildon where

:28:05. > :28:08.we won 11 seats. So a bit of a celebration.

:28:09. > :28:12.Just outside the pub to talk to us, now it is back inside? Quite right,

:28:13. > :28:16.absolutely. Thank you very much. I don't want to

:28:17. > :28:19.keep you from your pint any longer. Thank you very much for coming to

:28:20. > :28:25.our camera. Emily, let's have a look at the

:28:26. > :28:29.latest results. These results are proving Nigel

:28:30. > :28:43.Farage's point well. This is Great Yarmouth. Labour took this two years

:28:44. > :28:48.ago. Now it has been put into an overcontrol, Labour. If I show you

:28:49. > :28:53.what has happened it crystallises the narrative we have been talking

:28:54. > :28:58.about, UKIP coming in with the fresh ten seats taking five from Labour

:28:59. > :29:02.and five from the Conservatives. So they are spreading their power far

:29:03. > :29:07.and wide. Grimsby, the north-east, that is another one where we are

:29:08. > :29:12.seeing the same pattern. And again Labour has been pushed out of no

:29:13. > :29:15.overall control short by one. That is pretty much the reason there.

:29:16. > :29:28.Look at what happened overnight, today, I should say. UKIP gaining

:29:29. > :29:34.seven councillors. Conservatives down to four. UKIP is in first

:29:35. > :29:38.place. 36% of the vote to Labour's 26%. Obviously put back into the

:29:39. > :29:43.seats, the number of councillors it is harder for them to make the share

:29:44. > :29:47.work in numbers but they are cutting into the dominance of Labour this

:29:48. > :29:50.these parts of the world. Professor Jane Green you have

:29:51. > :29:57.something to say about immigration and UKIP? Listening to the

:29:58. > :30:02.conversation, what is interesting, no-one can say that the parties have

:30:03. > :30:06.been ignoring the question of Europe but I do think that what will be

:30:07. > :30:11.interesting in the year to come is to see how all of the parties deal

:30:12. > :30:17.with the issue of immigration. Back in 2010, less than 1% of people

:30:18. > :30:22.thought that UKIP was the best party and the most important problem to

:30:23. > :30:27.them, today that figure is 12% and immigration is more important. The

:30:28. > :30:32.challenge how to talk about immigration without going into those

:30:33. > :30:36.veriy tricky territories in politics over issues of race. It is tricky to

:30:37. > :30:41.question whether you talk about immigration, then you give UKIP more

:30:42. > :30:44.of an opportunity and then the background to all of this of course

:30:45. > :30:50.being the economy. I understand that the Conservatives

:30:51. > :30:54.will obviously want to claim credit for economic improvements, this will

:30:55. > :30:57.be a dividing line but what I think needs to happen is that people

:30:58. > :31:02.should feel that the economy is doing better for them and then that

:31:03. > :31:05.will somewhat off set some of the considerations about which is most

:31:06. > :31:14.important, which parties get the credit. Is there an element of

:31:15. > :31:19.racism in the support? You have seen statistics about how UKIP does in

:31:20. > :31:24.mainly white or British-born white areas as opposed to areas with big

:31:25. > :31:30.immigrant communities, but is that racism or is that just people

:31:31. > :31:33.worried about jobs, people worried about schools and all the other

:31:34. > :31:38.things you hear that politicians report from the doorstep? So, I

:31:39. > :31:42.would say there is going to be an element and I don't know how large

:31:43. > :31:46.that element is. I think it would be uncontroversial to say that there is

:31:47. > :31:51.going to be an element of racism in some of these votes. But it's not as

:31:52. > :31:56.simple as that and it's not as simple, what Jeremy was saying

:31:57. > :31:59.earlier, wards with proportions of mixed ethnic minorities being

:32:00. > :32:05.particularly high weren't more likely to support UKIP, I think what

:32:06. > :32:08.we might see in those areas where we haves could poll tan areas where

:32:09. > :32:11.people are comfortable living in mixed racial communities that

:32:12. > :32:19.support for UKIP is going to belower. It's a fascinating -- to be

:32:20. > :32:23.lower. It's a fascinating question to get to the bottom of how that's

:32:24. > :32:28.panning out. The Conservative MP for Bury North is in Salford this

:32:29. > :32:32.afternoon. Thank you for coming in. What's your view about all of this,

:32:33. > :32:36.what do you think should be done about UKIP and about the challenge

:32:37. > :32:43.to them that might work for the next general election? Well, my view is

:32:44. > :32:50.that as a Conservative Party we need to present our own programme and put

:32:51. > :32:55.that to the British people and if we do that then I think we can attract

:32:56. > :32:58.back to the Conservatives when it comes to the next general election

:32:59. > :33:07.people who have on this occasion perhaps chosen to go and vote for

:33:08. > :33:12.another party probably - results are still come coming, UKIP. What would

:33:13. > :33:20.you like the Conservative Party to say to the voter? My own personal

:33:21. > :33:25.view is I will be delighted if the Conservative Party were to announce

:33:26. > :33:31.that they would negotiate our exit from the European Union. But I

:33:32. > :33:36.accept that is not going to be the position of the Conservative Party

:33:37. > :33:41.and therefore the best position is what the party is offering, which is

:33:42. > :33:44.to give the British people a say and that is is what is on offer at the

:33:45. > :33:48.next general election. I think when it comes to choosing the next party

:33:49. > :33:52.of Government in next year's general election and it's a choice between

:33:53. > :33:57.David Cameron and Ed Miliband, once that choice is put before the

:33:58. > :34:01.British people and those who are concerned about immigration and our

:34:02. > :34:06.role in the European Union have the opportunity to decide who it is that

:34:07. > :34:11.they want to run the country, I think that the majority will decide

:34:12. > :34:16.to give the Conservatives the right to govern alone, which is what I and

:34:17. > :34:21.many of my colleagues on - all my colleagues on the back benches want

:34:22. > :34:25.to see. What about the Conservatives governing with UKIP, having a pact

:34:26. > :34:28.that they won't fight each other in the constituencies at the general

:34:29. > :34:36.election and so getting everybody who feels like you do together in

:34:37. > :34:39.one party? Well, as we heard the respective leaders of the

:34:40. > :34:45.Conservative Party, the Prime Minister and MrFarage, the leader of

:34:46. > :34:49.UKIP say, it's not on the agenda. I don't think that either we or

:34:50. > :34:53.journalists might want to talk about it, if we listen to them, they say

:34:54. > :34:57.it's not going to happen. My view is that there are enormous complicated

:34:58. > :35:03.difficulties in that actually happening, because both parties have

:35:04. > :35:08.their own manifesto. If it were to come about that there were

:35:09. > :35:14.candidates standing with both Conservative and UKIP logos at the

:35:15. > :35:17.side of their name, which manifesto would they be expected to follow?

:35:18. > :35:22.The Conservative manifesto on some things, the UKIP manifesto on other

:35:23. > :35:26.things? It's really not realistic, I don't think. It's not realistic to

:35:27. > :35:31.expect that's going to happen. I don't think it will happen.

:35:32. > :35:36.Certainly at a local level my message to voters in my Bury North

:35:37. > :35:41.constituency is look, you know my views, I have been clear about what

:35:42. > :35:46.I believe in and come and back me. If you vote for UKIP, there is a

:35:47. > :35:53.risk as we have seen in local elections, that a Labour candidate

:35:54. > :35:59.may be elected and may be even further away from your views than

:36:00. > :36:02.some issues than I am. You said you knew that the Conservative Party

:36:03. > :36:05.wasn't going to say we will pull out of Europe and have that as its

:36:06. > :36:08.stance, but that was your belief that should happen, that's what you

:36:09. > :36:12.would like to see happen, though it wasn't going to happen, would you

:36:13. > :36:17.like to see some deal done with Farage even though you think it

:36:18. > :36:24.won't happen? Do you yourself believe it would be a good idea?

:36:25. > :36:29.Clearly if by some miracle the two parties were able to agree at the

:36:30. > :36:34.very highest level a common programme and the right in British

:36:35. > :36:42.politics were it to be united, that would be a beneficial thing. I would

:36:43. > :36:46.have no qualms about that as someone who believes we would be better off

:36:47. > :36:49.out of the European Union. Many Conservatives don't agree with my

:36:50. > :36:55.view and think that the best thing to do is to have it decided by a

:36:56. > :36:59.referendum of the British people, unless of course there are many

:37:00. > :37:04.people in the Labour Party who agree with me on this particular issue and

:37:05. > :37:08.surprisingly, there are lots of Liberal Democrats too who actually

:37:09. > :37:12.think we would be better off out. It's the sort of issue perhaps it's

:37:13. > :37:17.best it's dealt with by a referendum which it will be on offer if we win

:37:18. > :37:24.an outright majority at the next general election. Thank you very

:37:25. > :37:28.much, David Nuttall. We have now reached the moment which everybody

:37:29. > :37:30.waits for after local election results, which is the projected

:37:31. > :37:34.national share, what would have happened if the way people voted on

:37:35. > :37:40.Thursday applied over the country as a whole. I will leave Jeremy Vine to

:37:41. > :37:46.explain the details. Thank you, David. It's the big

:37:47. > :37:49.moment really of this whole process of looking at these council

:37:50. > :37:53.elections and trying to work out what it says about where the parties

:37:54. > :37:57.are. Our projected national share, the share as David says we think the

:37:58. > :38:02.parties would have got had these elections been held across the whole

:38:03. > :38:07.country and not just in those 161 councils that we have seen coloured

:38:08. > :38:11.in. Let me bring on projected national share for you, effectively

:38:12. > :38:14.the result as we have it of the local elections.

:38:15. > :38:22.Labour we have on 31% projected national share. That's a bit up, a

:38:23. > :38:23.touch up on last year when Labour and the Conservatives were both held

:38:24. > :38:38.under 30%. It's Conservatives on 29%. There we

:38:39. > :38:46.have it. 29% in second place for the Conservatives. Interestingly, UKIP

:38:47. > :38:51.here whose day and night started thunderingly well, maybe lower than

:38:52. > :38:59.you expected given the coverage, 17%, that's the London vote, in

:39:00. > :39:05.effect. But they're in third place. The Lib Dems are definitely here in

:39:06. > :39:08.fourth with 13%, which is a very, very poor performance by the Lib

:39:09. > :39:12.Dems. Others on 10%. We will have another look at this

:39:13. > :39:16.graph. Projected national share. The share we think the parties would

:39:17. > :39:22.have got had votes taken place across the whole of the UK. Labour

:39:23. > :39:28.in first place on 31%. Conservatives just behind on 29%. UKIP there on

:39:29. > :39:33.17%. The Lib Dems doing very poorly indeed on 13%.

:39:34. > :39:39.There you are, David. Thank you very much. Nick Robinson,

:39:40. > :39:43.our political editor, is at Westminster this afternoon. Nick,

:39:44. > :39:46.you heard the figures. Does that change the picture that we have been

:39:47. > :39:50.getting through on opinion polls or does it endorse them? I think it

:39:51. > :39:53.Broadley endorses them. It will allow Labour to say look, we won, we

:39:54. > :39:59.have the highest number of votes and also the most councils and the most

:40:00. > :40:02.councillors. But what I think this confirms, this poll, is that Labour

:40:03. > :40:06.are still not doing nearly well enough a year from a general

:40:07. > :40:11.election to be confident of winning that election and because of that

:40:12. > :40:15.column for UKIP. Yes, they're not doing as well as last night, they're

:40:16. > :40:20.not doing as well as last year because 45% of all the seats fought

:40:21. > :40:24.today were in London. UKIP didn't even fight many of those individual

:40:25. > :40:28.seats. I think they fought about 25% of the seats in total and did much

:40:29. > :40:33.worse in London than they did elsewhere. What have we really seen

:40:34. > :40:38.of the UKIP performance? They're not a party of power yet. They haven't

:40:39. > :40:42.taken control of any councils. They don't have any MPs. There is not a

:40:43. > :40:45.prayer of them forming the next Government but they've established

:40:46. > :40:49.themselves as a party with a power to disrupt, not just in European

:40:50. > :40:53.Parliamentary elections, we may well see them win those when the results

:40:54. > :40:57.come out on Sunday night and Monday morning, but the power to disrupt up

:40:58. > :41:01.and down the country, threatening Labour in its heartlands in the

:41:02. > :41:07.north, denying them victories in the Midlands, causing real heartache for

:41:08. > :41:12.the Tories amongst the heartlands of Essexman, the area Margaret Thatcher

:41:13. > :41:17.conquered when she came to power in the late 1970s and early 80s, as

:41:18. > :41:22.well. And causing real heartache to parties and meaning that here in

:41:23. > :41:25.Westminster and on your programme we are hearing the leaders, in

:41:26. > :41:30.particular of Labour and the Tories, wrestling with how to deal with

:41:31. > :41:34.this. Ed Balls I thought fascinating earlier on making it clear he

:41:35. > :41:37.thought his party's campaign hadn't done enough on immigration, hadn't

:41:38. > :41:43.said enough on reforming Europe. On the Tory side, again and again as

:41:44. > :41:46.you have just seen a few minutes ago with MrNuttall, people saying we

:41:47. > :41:50.need to do more on this issue of Europe and immigration, as well.

:41:51. > :41:55.Thank you very much. Are you going to stay with us or are you off to

:41:56. > :42:04.broadcast for somebody else? I am always delighted to be here! Hang on

:42:05. > :42:13.a moment. Patrick Flynn has joined us, we have had from John Kurties an

:42:14. > :42:18.interesting thing, you have 23% last year. You have actually slipped back

:42:19. > :42:22.a bit, not just because of London according to John, but because in

:42:23. > :42:26.the few places where the vote can be compared directly with last year,

:42:27. > :42:29.your vote is down. How do you explain that if we are talking -

:42:30. > :42:34.everybody is talking about this great surge of UKIP, what's gone

:42:35. > :42:39.wrong? I really don't think anything has gone wrong for us, as Nick said

:42:40. > :42:43.45% of the seats were London. Although we tried to have an option

:42:44. > :42:48.of UKIP on the ballot paper in every ward we could, the coverage there

:42:49. > :42:52.was very poor relatively. It is by far our weakest area. To come out

:42:53. > :42:59.with that projected national vote share is right at the top end of our

:43:00. > :43:03.expectation. John Curtis, what do you think we should read into the

:43:04. > :43:08.projected national share, it seems as if everybody is not quite where

:43:09. > :43:11.they ought to be. When you have four-party politics everybody is

:43:12. > :43:15.trying to get top spot and nobody's going to do terribly well. I think

:43:16. > :43:21.the first thing to say, I think the headline about this is that Labour's

:43:22. > :43:26.lead over the Conservatives at two points is narrower than last year.

:43:27. > :43:30.It's narrower than in 2012. This is a clear warning to the Labour Party

:43:31. > :43:34.which underlines that of recent opinion polls, that the lead over

:43:35. > :43:39.the Conservatives looks too small for it to be confident of victory in

:43:40. > :43:45.12 months' time. That's point number one. Point number two is although

:43:46. > :43:49.UKIP's vote is down, if two years ago I was saying to you we are going

:43:50. > :43:52.to say UKIP would get the equivalent of 17% at a general election you

:43:53. > :43:55.would say I don't believe you, and we should remember this is still a

:43:56. > :44:01.remarkable performance, what we have seen however in a sense - last year

:44:02. > :44:05.we saw as it were places where UKIP were really strong. This year we

:44:06. > :44:09.have seen the other side, which is certainly one part of England where

:44:10. > :44:14.UKIP clearly are not strong and that is London, and that now is clearly

:44:15. > :44:18.reflected more accurately in this year's projected national share. For

:44:19. > :44:23.the Liberal Democrats, one simply has to say when are they going to

:44:24. > :44:28.get out of trouble? This national share is lower than last year's

:44:29. > :44:33.record low. 12 months to go and they need to remember that the next time

:44:34. > :44:39.the nation goes to the polling stations it's for real. It's Liberal

:44:40. > :44:42.Democrat MPs own seats on the line and quite a few of them look as

:44:43. > :44:47.though they're facing an uncomfortable 12 months. What kind

:44:48. > :44:50.of share should they have got, they've 13 here, if they were to

:44:51. > :44:53.save the seats they've got at the moment? Danny will probably tell you

:44:54. > :44:56.that's still better than the current standing in the opinion polls, which

:44:57. > :44:59.is quite true, but the truth is Liberal Democrats always do better

:45:00. > :45:04.in local elections than in opinion polls. But by the standards of the

:45:05. > :45:08.Liberal Democrat history and local Government elections, 13% is,

:45:09. > :45:13.frankly, an abysmal perform performance. Do you agree, Nick?

:45:14. > :45:16.It's a poor performance, it's true the Liberal Democrats have seen all

:45:17. > :45:21.the protest votes they used to get in opposition go to UKIP. They are

:45:22. > :45:25.going in large numbers to a new kid on the block, to Nigel Farage. Of

:45:26. > :45:28.course the key question, not just after today, but after the European

:45:29. > :45:33.results on Sunday night and Monday morning, is how many of those can

:45:34. > :45:38.Nigel Farage hang on to? Patrick Flynn in the studio, m former

:45:39. > :45:41.journalist colleague of mine here at Westminster, has effectively

:45:42. > :45:44.persuaded his party and helped his party to say we are only really

:45:45. > :45:52.answering questions on immigration and Europe. Once they are skwd

:45:53. > :45:58.questions on privatation -- are asked questions on privatisation of

:45:59. > :46:02.the NHS, cuts to public spending, say they are in favour but can't

:46:03. > :46:06.tell you what cuts will be. When those questions start to mount ahead

:46:07. > :46:10.of a general election it's possible that the vote is squeezed or it is

:46:11. > :46:15.also possible, as we have seen in European countries, France, Holland,

:46:16. > :46:19.Italy and elsewhere, that there is 25% of the electorate or around that

:46:20. > :46:23.figure who simply say, I don't care what any answers are, I don't like

:46:24. > :46:39.the other parties. I want to vote for none of the above. It is not as

:46:40. > :46:44.good as we were doing this time last year. Clearly as a party of

:46:45. > :46:48.Government we have been experiencing whatever party experiences in

:46:49. > :46:54.Government. I would say that these local elections show in most places

:46:55. > :46:59.where we have MPs and parliamentary strength as well as local strength

:47:00. > :47:04.we have gotten the message across, so more ups and downs in our share

:47:05. > :47:07.of the vote around the country. Back into the last Parliament we were

:47:08. > :47:11.making gains in areas where perhaps we did not have the broader

:47:12. > :47:15.strength. I think that the message for me is that we have to work

:47:16. > :47:19.harder over the next 11 months to get across to people what we are

:47:20. > :47:23.actually achieving for the country in government and what the Liberal

:47:24. > :47:26.Democrat contribution is. For the Liberal Democrats as much as

:47:27. > :47:31.for the Conservatives, for example, to take credit for the economic

:47:32. > :47:36.recovery, to take credit for the cuts in income tax we are delivering

:47:37. > :47:41.for working peek, to take credit for the expansion in apprenticeships,

:47:42. > :47:45.where we have that message across we have done better, where we have not

:47:46. > :47:49.we have been knocked back. So you are going to leave the

:47:50. > :47:53.coalition for the election campaign. You are taking the credit for all

:47:54. > :47:56.that has gone well. What will you blame the Tories for? We are not

:47:57. > :48:00.leaving the coalition. Staying in it through the election

:48:01. > :48:02.campaign? The Government of the country is the Government of the

:48:03. > :48:09.country until there is a new government after the election. So

:48:10. > :48:15.you will be Chief Secretary to the Treasury? The Conservatives want to

:48:16. > :48:20.take credit for the economy, it was said earlier but it is because of

:48:21. > :48:23.the equal efforts because of the Conservatives and the Liberal

:48:24. > :48:28.Democrats. That is message to get across day in, day out.

:48:29. > :48:32.I am fascinated about this. So when the general election campaign comes

:48:33. > :48:39.along you will be the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, yes?

:48:40. > :48:45.Those appointments are in other people's hands.

:48:46. > :48:47.Assuming so, you remain the Chief Secretary, Vince Cable is the

:48:48. > :48:52.Business Secretary. Then you claim credit for everything you think has

:48:53. > :48:58.gone right and presumably attacking the Tories for something, otherwise

:48:59. > :49:08.you are saying that the Kyles should continue? What are you going to

:49:09. > :49:12.attack the Tories for? I will not leave claiming credit for the many

:49:13. > :49:15.things that the Liberal Democrats have done for this country. Of

:49:16. > :49:24.course there are areas where the Liberal Democrats and the

:49:25. > :49:29.Conservative Conservatives differ. We, each party will have their own

:49:30. > :49:35.agenda in a manifesto for the future of this country. How is the election

:49:36. > :49:40.going to campaign? We have had a series of election campaigns since

:49:41. > :49:44.forming the coalition of which we have kicked living daylights out of

:49:45. > :49:50.each other. But not a national campaign? What do

:49:51. > :49:54.you call this? This is a local campaign? Well, the European

:49:55. > :50:04.campaign is national. Yes.

:50:05. > :50:07.. Forgive me, we are fighting about Scotland Northern Ireland, I think

:50:08. > :50:19.you have been in the studio too long! After Labour lost the election

:50:20. > :50:24.Mr Darling remained the Chancellor of the Ex-checker until the new

:50:25. > :50:28.Government. He had power to do that. We do not crease to have a

:50:29. > :50:31.Government during the campaign. There is clearly movement. We can

:50:32. > :50:35.talk about the national polls but one thing is certain, no party has

:50:36. > :50:39.ever gone on to win a general election unless it was the largest

:50:40. > :50:44.party in Government. We know that is not going to be Labour it will be

:50:45. > :50:47.the Conservatives, a year before. That has never happened before. I

:50:48. > :50:48.think it bodes bad for the Labour Party.

:50:49. > :50:54.OK. I will bring you back in a minute.

:50:55. > :51:00.But we have Caroline Lucas joining us and also scenes from the pub.

:51:01. > :51:08.I don't know if we have them. This is how UKIP is celebrating. Is

:51:09. > :51:22.he behind the bar? Yes, he is. That is, a posed photo. .

:51:23. > :51:29.You don't say! He gets a pint. IPA and I get BBC water.

:51:30. > :51:33.Or coffee or tea if we are lucky. Caroline Lucas joins us from

:51:34. > :51:40.Brighton. Caroline, you have doubled the number of councillors.

:51:41. > :51:45.We have increased it by 10%. We have held eight, lost one, waiting for a

:51:46. > :51:49.lot of results to come in. But an increase of 10% is something that we

:51:50. > :51:54.are pleased with. The European elections are a big prize. We were

:51:55. > :51:59.on opinion polls showing between 10% and 12% for the European elections.

:52:00. > :52:06.If we succeed with that it puts us ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

:52:07. > :52:10.Going from two MEPs, up to five or even six. So a good day for the

:52:11. > :52:14.Greens. Your overall change is net 13?

:52:15. > :52:19.That's right. So how many councillors do you have

:52:20. > :52:25.all together? On principle authorities, 140 when we started so

:52:26. > :52:30.153 now. But we are hoping for the figure to go up.

:52:31. > :52:34.Do you see that as a modest gain compared to what you hoped for? We

:52:35. > :52:38.hoped for 10% and that is where we are.

:52:39. > :52:43.There are big hopes for the European elections, they are under a system

:52:44. > :52:47.of proportion, that makes it easier for us.

:52:48. > :52:52.You had a surge way back then went into a #350erd of decline. You are

:52:53. > :52:55.the last member standing as an MP in Westminster? Well, first member

:52:56. > :52:59.standing. First and last.

:53:00. > :53:06.And we have minority administration control in broken, so we control the

:53:07. > :53:11.council. We are now the official opposition on Solihull council, we

:53:12. > :53:15.were on Norwich City Council, we have broken into a number of new

:53:16. > :53:19.councils, so yep, it is steady progress.

:53:20. > :53:27.But nothing likes a exciting as UKIP? Not as exciting as UKIP. If we

:53:28. > :53:31.had a mod come of the money and the media that they have, we could be

:53:32. > :53:37.dob better but the European elections, they project five or six

:53:38. > :53:41.MEP is in total, putting us ahead of the Lib Demes, that will be positive

:53:42. > :53:46.if it comes to pass on Sunday night. Will it be bad for you if it is

:53:47. > :53:52.lower than that? It would be bad if we lost seats. We want to keep the

:53:53. > :53:59.seats in the south-east and London. In three other places we were within

:54:00. > :54:05.1% of getting the extra seats. And having fought good campaigns in the

:54:06. > :54:10.north-west, and in the south-west, they have all done really good

:54:11. > :54:14.campaigns. So if one or two of them don't succeed, that will be a pity

:54:15. > :54:17.but it is still going in the right direction.

:54:18. > :54:21.At the general election, are you standing again? I am.

:54:22. > :54:26.What are your chances there? As I say... The council in Brighton is

:54:27. > :54:30.not the most popular? I don't think any council is popular with the

:54:31. > :54:34.outsourced cuts forced on them by the Government when year on year

:54:35. > :54:39.they are losing ?20 million worth of the budget. So it is a challenging

:54:40. > :54:44.time. But the council has done positive things. We have one of the

:54:45. > :54:48.best living wages in the country. We have done fantastic things with

:54:49. > :54:51.cycle lanes and green spaces in the city. So a lot of people who are

:54:52. > :54:56.positive about the council as well as some who are obviously less so.

:54:57. > :55:01.Thank you very much for joining us. We are rejoined by Nick Robinson. He

:55:02. > :55:07.has been listen to all that was going on around the table. Nick you

:55:08. > :55:10.had a comment on it? I was struck we have focussed on the fact that

:55:11. > :55:16.Labour are not doing well enough. But as Eric Pickles and Danny

:55:17. > :55:19.Alexander, the two faces of the coalition, debating who should get

:55:20. > :55:23.the credit for the economy, I thought it worth pausing to say

:55:24. > :55:28.no-one. What is striking is that the Conservatives are doing worse than

:55:29. > :55:33.they were after the omni-shambles budget of 2012. Even though there

:55:34. > :55:38.has been an economic recovery, some people are feeling that recovery, as

:55:39. > :55:40.yet there is no evidence that either the Conservatives or the Liberal

:55:41. > :55:43.Democrats are benefitting from that when it comes to people casting

:55:44. > :55:47.their votes. That is something that should make them pause and worry.

:55:48. > :55:56.Thank you very much. We have another result in or two

:55:57. > :56:04.results in, Emily? This is from Bradford. George Galloway here. He

:56:05. > :56:08.is one of the MPs here. That no overall control, the grey has been

:56:09. > :56:13.pushed out by the red. That means Labour has taken it. Labour is just

:56:14. > :56:17.up. The Conservatives pushing down. There are a lot of Respect

:56:18. > :56:21.councillors who moved into the column that Labour has managed to

:56:22. > :56:27.secure. They will be pleased with that. Calderdale, they have failed

:56:28. > :56:32.to take this. They are short by one here. This is somewhere that they

:56:33. > :56:36.really had been doing well. Gaining momentum but they are short of

:56:37. > :56:40.overall control that suggests that point we were hearing from John

:56:41. > :56:45.Curtis, that they have reached a peak in terms of momentum.

:56:46. > :56:49.And let me show you what happened overnight. They have gaved five. The

:56:50. > :56:53.Lib Demes have taken the hit here once again. They have failed to take

:56:54. > :56:57.that. Emily thank you very much. We take a

:56:58. > :57:02.pause now. We will come back around the table and hear more from germy

:57:03. > :57:05.as well about how things are going. But now a brief pause while we look

:57:06. > :57:13.at how the weather will be over the weekend.

:57:14. > :57:18.We are joining Peter Gibbs, I hope. It is a bank holiday weekend. No

:57:19. > :57:22.surprise there will be some rain. Everywhere getting rain at one point

:57:23. > :57:29.or another. But also seeing sunshine from time to time. When the sun

:57:30. > :57:33.breaks through, it should feel warm. The rest rest of the afternoon is

:57:34. > :57:38.struggling to get much in the way of sunshine. Brighter spells coming

:57:39. > :57:42.through in the East of England. Heavy showers in the west. They will

:57:43. > :57:46.linger on into the busy time this evening if you are out travelling

:57:47. > :57:50.over the south-west through the Midlands or across Wales. There

:57:51. > :57:54.could be really heavy downpours there.

:57:55. > :58:00.The showers extending to northern England. The temperature on the low

:58:01. > :58:04.side at up to 13 Celsius. Still cool and dry over Northern Ireland. The

:58:05. > :58:10.cool breeze blowing in across Scotland. Stornaway struggling to

:58:11. > :58:14.get to double figures. A largely dry story but cloudy. The heavy showers

:58:15. > :58:19.over northern England. And few and far between through the latter part

:58:20. > :58:22.of the afternoon into the early part of the evening across East Anglia

:58:23. > :58:27.and the south-east one or two spots getting up to 17 Celsius. Overnight

:58:28. > :58:31.we keep the outbreaks of rain going. One area spiralling out into the

:58:32. > :58:38.Irish Sea into Northern Ireland. Another following on to take its

:58:39. > :58:41.play to southern parts of England. Generally double temperatures but

:58:42. > :58:46.chilly in Scotland. This is how we start the weekend. A

:58:47. > :58:50.bit of heavy rain in England and Wales. Taking its time to get to

:58:51. > :58:56.Cumbria. But Scotland and Northern Ireland do the best to hang on to

:58:57. > :59:00.drier and brighter weather. The temperatures up to the

:59:01. > :59:08.mid-teens. Cool on the east coast. Not so bad for the BBC Radio 1 Great

:59:09. > :59:12.Weekend. Then it will swap around a bit. England and Wales with the

:59:13. > :59:15.drier, brighter weather on Sunday. The showers pushing to Scotland and

:59:16. > :59:18.Northern Ireland. The temperatures picking up with the sunshine

:59:19. > :59:22.breaking through. On to the bank holiday Monday for the north a few

:59:23. > :59:27.showers around. Sunshine and temperatures in the mid-teens coming

:59:28. > :59:32.to the south and there one or two spots with decent spells of

:59:33. > :59:38.sunshine. A bit mixed over the coming bank

:59:39. > :59:41.holiday weekend. But most of us should get sunshine from time to

:59:42. > :59:54.time but watch out for the heavy showers.

:59:55. > :00:01.election centre at the BBC, get ago clearer picture now of how the main

:00:02. > :00:04.parties have been faring. We are going to be in Harrow. We have been

:00:05. > :00:07.watching them. They have been counting for a long time. Can't be

:00:08. > :00:12.much longer I hope now, it's 4 o'clock, before we get a result from

:00:13. > :00:19.Harrow. And Barnet. Maybe hoping for another

:00:20. > :00:24.gain for Labour in Barnet. They have been doing well in London. We are

:00:25. > :00:29.going to have change of guests so I would like to thank all three of you

:00:30. > :00:43.who winged your way back here this afternoon.

:00:44. > :00:48.We'd Bert have the news now. Let's join Jane Hill, then back to the

:00:49. > :00:53.studio here. Jane. -- Bert have the news.

:00:54. > :00:57.Nigel Farage has confirmed that he will stand as a candidate in the

:00:58. > :01:01.next general election. His announce that. He'll stand in a constituency

:01:02. > :01:07.south of the river comes after UKIP made big gains in local councils in

:01:08. > :01:09.England. Labour didn't do as well as hoped while the Conservatives and

:01:10. > :01:14.the Liberal Democrats lost dozens of seats. With the majority of seats

:01:15. > :01:18.counted, our Political Correspondent, Iain Watson, looks at

:01:19. > :01:22.the story so far. This report contains flash photography.

:01:23. > :01:27.He promised a political earthquake and even though Nigel Farage's party

:01:28. > :01:30.hasn't won control of any councils, UKIP did well enough to send shock

:01:31. > :01:36.waves through the more established parties. It caused upsets from

:01:37. > :01:40.Yorkshire to Essex, causing concern in Basildon and Thurrock. Nigel

:01:41. > :01:43.Farage told the BBC he'd stand for Parliament next year, not here but

:01:44. > :01:47.global Kent. There are several seats here in

:01:48. > :01:51.Essex that are absolutely winnable for us in a general election next

:01:52. > :01:55.year. I haven't jet eyet decide what had I'm going to do, but I will

:01:56. > :01:59.choose a seat, but it will be south of the river. The performance

:02:00. > :02:06.provoked call force a pact at in next general election. The Prime

:02:07. > :02:14.Minister dismissed this. We are the Conservatives, we don'ts pacts or

:02:15. > :02:17.deals. Our vote share was up from last year.

:02:18. > :02:21.Labour gained more seats than any other party and performed well in

:02:22. > :02:25.areas where UKIP were weak. In Cambridge, and in London, Ed

:02:26. > :02:32.Miliband celebrated in Redbridge in the east of the city.

:02:33. > :02:35.The reason we won here is because of the deep discontent there is in the

:02:36. > :02:40.country and the deep desire for change. We know that UKIP made gains

:02:41. > :02:45.in this election. For some people, that discontent with the country,

:02:46. > :02:50.that desire for change meant they turned to UKIP. Labour didn't do as

:02:51. > :02:53.well as expected in some parts of England, the share of the vote only

:02:54. > :02:55.slightly up from the general election performance. The

:02:56. > :02:58.Conservatives suffered heavy losses, but had some consolation in

:02:59. > :03:00.Conservatives suffered heavy losses, Labour off in Swindon and claiming

:03:01. > :03:06.victory against the Liberal Democrats in Kingston in London.

:03:07. > :03:08.It's never easy to see dedicated hard-working Liberal Democrat

:03:09. > :03:12.councillors lose ground but actually, I think in the areas where

:03:13. > :03:18.we have MPs, where we have good organisation on the ground, where we

:03:19. > :03:21.can get our message across, we are doing well. Based on their

:03:22. > :03:25.performance at the council elections, Labour are confident of

:03:26. > :03:28.doing well in the results of the European elections on Sunday night.

:03:29. > :03:31.If they send more tremors through the political establishment, the

:03:32. > :03:35.more traditional political parties will have to decide how to respond.

:03:36. > :03:42.Should they move closer to UKIP's territory on Europe and immigration,

:03:43. > :03:46.or should they stand their ground? In other news, fire crews in

:03:47. > :03:51.Scotland are still tackling a blaze which has engulfed the world famous

:03:52. > :03:54.Glasgow School of Art, Rennie Mackintosh building. It's believed

:03:55. > :03:57.to have started in the basement but spread rapidly to upper floors and

:03:58. > :04:00.smoke has been billowing across the city.

:04:01. > :04:02.There are no reports of injuries, but a huge amount of students' work

:04:03. > :04:13.has been destroyed. It's them to Glasgow's School of Art

:04:14. > :04:20.and a Glasgow landmark. This afternoon, fire has engulfed large

:04:21. > :04:25.parts of the Charles Remy Mackintosh building in the city. The blackth

:04:26. > :04:28.blaze broke out at lunch time in the basement and quickly spread. Flames

:04:29. > :04:32.could be seen coming out of the top floor windows.

:04:33. > :04:36.The Fire Brigade says the building had been aevacuate and there are no

:04:37. > :04:41.reports of anyone missing or injured. Units from across the city

:04:42. > :04:47.are tackling the blaze. This is a busy time for the college as

:04:48. > :04:51.students prepare for end of year exhibitions. Many fear they have

:04:52. > :04:54.lost four years of work. The iconic building was designed by Mackintosh

:04:55. > :05:00.and completed in 1909 and is regarded as a unique example of Art

:05:01. > :05:05.Nouveau architecture, which is renowned worldwide.

:05:06. > :05:09.The former BBC broadcaster Stuart Hall has been sentenced to

:05:10. > :05:12.two-and-a-half years in prison for two counts of indecently assaulting

:05:13. > :05:17.an underage girl. He's already in prison for indecent assault. His new

:05:18. > :05:24.sentence will run consecutively. Hall was found guilty of one count

:05:25. > :05:28.of indecent assault last we can week and he admitted assaulting the same

:05:29. > :05:31.girl when she was 13 during the trial that. Is a summary of the

:05:32. > :05:35.news. Back to David. Thank you very much.

:05:36. > :05:39.We have been joined by some new guests. We have new insights into

:05:40. > :05:48.what handicap has been happening. Malcolm Bruce, the Liberal Democrat,

:05:49. > :05:55.MP for Gordon and Scotland. The new Culture Secretary, and Mary Cray

:05:56. > :06:00.Labour MP for Wakefield. We have heard for your colleagues,

:06:01. > :06:05.but let me start afresh with you, if it's possible, because you went have

:06:06. > :06:11.know what is going on outside at all -- won't have known. You have seen

:06:12. > :06:17.what the projector of national share is? No. You have not seen that.

:06:18. > :06:22.Let's set the ground rules. Can we show the projector national share?

:06:23. > :06:29.Yes. Just have a look at this. Let's look at the map here first. I'll

:06:30. > :06:32.show you the councils where there have been changes. Most of the

:06:33. > :06:37.changes inside the London area, a lot of red flashing there,

:06:38. > :06:41.Hammersmith, Fulham and there's Cambridge with rural blue around it.

:06:42. > :06:45.For the large part, the councils with well over 100 councils there,

:06:46. > :06:50.161 in most places stay as they were. One thing that doesn't flash

:06:51. > :06:56.up is where a council goes to no overall control. That makes it grey.

:06:57. > :07:00.Grey areas here are where UKIP have been shaking the consensus and

:07:01. > :07:07.making big gains in Essex. So, let us refresh you on projected national

:07:08. > :07:11.share. I'm going to take you back a little, so patience here, if you

:07:12. > :07:17.can. Back to the time when Tony Blair was Prime Minister. Here we

:07:18. > :07:21.go. So 2005 is our start year, Mr Blair

:07:22. > :07:27.is Prime Minister and these were the shares the parties had in the local

:07:28. > :07:31.elections that year. Election year, but these are local election shares.

:07:32. > :07:35.Labour just ahead of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems on

:07:36. > :07:40.28%. You see this projection, we have talked about this a lot, when a

:07:41. > :07:43.party is in power, it fends to get punished in Local Government and

:07:44. > :07:48.some in Labour's case. By the time Gordon Brown was running Labour, you

:07:49. > :07:51.could see by 2009, they were in an absolutely shocking position where

:07:52. > :07:55.they had fallen behind the Liberal Democrats. We goat to 2010 and

:07:56. > :07:57.Labour recovers, the coalition come into power and it's going to be the

:07:58. > :08:02.Conservatives and the Liberal Democrat who is get punished. So the

:08:03. > :08:06.graph four is here and you can see this decline by the Liberal

:08:07. > :08:09.Democrats in particular as we go through the local elections in the

:08:10. > :08:15.years that following low. Here we are at 2012, a good performance from

:08:16. > :08:21.Labour here. 2012, 38%. Roll forward to 2013. You see what happens here.

:08:22. > :08:28.2013 was the year UKIP registered on the Richter scale. They had 23%.

:08:29. > :08:32.It's hard to start a line in 2013, but where they were was here. 23%,

:08:33. > :08:38.they suddenly appeared here. So Labour and the Conservatives were

:08:39. > :08:43.suppressed below 30% which is pretty much unheard of, the Liberal

:08:44. > :08:45.Democrats having a terrible time. Projected national share this year,

:08:46. > :08:51.you have still got the suppression of the two main parties. 31% and 29.

:08:52. > :08:55.Those are the key figures. Labour not doing as well as they would have

:08:56. > :09:00.wanted to. The Conservatives performing poorly and you have got

:09:01. > :09:05.UKIP down here on 17%. They are only not showing because they weren't

:09:06. > :09:08.anywhere in the mid 2000s. The Liberal Democrats being pushed out.

:09:09. > :09:13.Let us remind ourselves, look at this for the Liberal Democrats going

:09:14. > :09:18.back to the mid 2000. Up-and-up, 2010 election and declining and

:09:19. > :09:22.declining and declining, and in the whole of their history, you struggle

:09:23. > :09:29.to find anything happening that was as poor as this. 31% Labour, 29% for

:09:30. > :09:35.the Conservatives. UKIP on 17 and the Liberal Democrats on 13. Pf

:09:36. > :09:39.Thank you very much, sorry to jump that on you, but Malcolm Bruce, it's

:09:40. > :09:43.a wipe-out it looks for the Liberal Democrats? You are no longer

:09:44. > :09:46.attracting people who want to vote for you as they did at the last

:09:47. > :09:50.election because you are not Tory and you are not Labour, they don't

:09:51. > :09:55.like the coalition, they don't like what you have done in coalition and

:09:56. > :10:00.you are being punished at the polls? If it was a wipe-out we'd lose all

:10:01. > :10:04.our seats but we haven't. We have suffered a decline in the share of

:10:05. > :10:09.the vote which is disappointing and we've lost seats which is

:10:10. > :10:14.disappointed, especially for those who've lost seats after working

:10:15. > :10:18.hard. We have concentrated our effort where we control the councils

:10:19. > :10:22.and also where we have MPs. In those seats, we have done extremely well.

:10:23. > :10:29.But what does it all mean for a general election, that you are down

:10:30. > :10:33.at 13%? It bodes well in the seats we hold and challenge. It looks like

:10:34. > :10:37.we are holding on well. Our vote that is increased, whether it's in

:10:38. > :10:43.Dorset or Eastleigh or in Cheltenham, in Colchester, Sutton,

:10:44. > :10:49.in Birmingham, Yardley, in south lakeland, all these seat our vote

:10:50. > :10:52.has either held or increased. The implications of that are that we are

:10:53. > :10:56.holding or ground where we are strong and where our message gets

:10:57. > :11:01.through. That's the second part of it. I believe we get drowned out in

:11:02. > :11:03.the national situation, but where we are organisation on the ground and

:11:04. > :11:08.get our message across, people know what we have done on raising the tax

:11:09. > :11:15.threshold and on the biggest reform of pensions since Lloyd George on

:11:16. > :11:21.apprenticeships and support for children in deprived areas. They

:11:22. > :11:24.respond to that. We have got to turn up the volume so we can reach more

:11:25. > :11:28.people and get them to respond. So you are not worried? You think the

:11:29. > :11:32.coalition has been a success and everyone will vote for you as they

:11:33. > :11:36.did before? If you think about why we went into the coalition, yes it's

:11:37. > :11:41.been a success. We have several quarters of sustained economic

:11:42. > :11:45.recovery across all sector, record employment, unemployment coming

:11:46. > :11:49.down, low flainics -- low inflation. Liberal Democrat policies are making

:11:50. > :11:52.people feel better. We were not back to where we were before the crash

:11:53. > :11:55.and I honestly believe that as we get to a general election next year,

:11:56. > :11:59.people are going to make a decision. At the moment, it doesn't look like

:12:00. > :12:02.they want a single party to win, what they are likely to say is, do

:12:03. > :12:06.we want to risk Labour putting this recovery at risk or are we prepared

:12:07. > :12:10.to trust the Conservatives on their own given the difficulties they have

:12:11. > :12:13.with UKIP or do we want to see the Liberal Democrats being a part of

:12:14. > :12:17.the influence? Where, with it appears that people prefer to

:12:18. > :12:20.support it. Norman Smith, the BBC chief Political Correspondent, I

:12:21. > :12:24.want you comment as we go round on the #57b8 six? That is the Liberal

:12:25. > :12:27.Democrat argument that they are not fighting a national campaign any

:12:28. > :12:32.more, they are fighting where they have seats and I understand you have

:12:33. > :12:35.done well in some of your seats, but in other of your seats, particularly

:12:36. > :12:44.in London, you have taken a hiding if you go to seats like Lin fetor

:12:45. > :12:50.stone's seat, she lost seats, more than ten in Brent as well -- Lynn

:12:51. > :12:54.Featherstone. Twickenham as well. These should all be areas where you

:12:55. > :12:57.are holding up, and you are not. I accept that we have had a difficult

:12:58. > :13:04.time, particularly in Labour parts of London. Soot tonne was an

:13:05. > :13:08.exceptional. We have increased our seats there -- Sutton. My analysis

:13:09. > :13:13.of how people are going to vote in a general election where our base

:13:14. > :13:16.hasn't disappeared and we haven't suffered setsbacks, I think it's

:13:17. > :13:20.likely that we'll be able to hold them. But it's a challenge. Out of

:13:21. > :13:25.London, not only have we done well in the seat wes hold, but there are

:13:26. > :13:30.seats like St Albans, Winchester wrrks we have topped the poll. There

:13:31. > :13:34.is the potential not only to hold seats but to gain a few. The point I

:13:35. > :13:36.would say is, come the next general election, the Liberal Democrats are

:13:37. > :13:41.going to be serious contenders within the race, given that we are

:13:42. > :13:44.in multi-Party Politics. The implications for the Liberal

:13:45. > :13:49.Democrats will be rather more important than UKIP, I suspect. Down

:13:50. > :13:53.in Portsmouth, Cambridge, you have done badly there too. I'm not

:13:54. > :13:58.denying we have lost ground. But the point I'm making is that that is not

:13:59. > :14:02.true everywhere and in some places we have increased the vote. It's an

:14:03. > :14:09.uneven situation. When you take a share of the vote, you don't get

:14:10. > :14:13.seats under the first-past-the-post system. Parliamentary seats are what

:14:14. > :14:23.matter in a general election. All right. Let us turn to the Tory

:14:24. > :14:29.position. Labour is not as far ahead of you as it should be, everyone

:14:30. > :14:35.says, in this state in the cycle. On the other hand, UKIP people who came

:14:36. > :14:38.from you, substantially from you, substantially say they are going

:14:39. > :14:43.with UKIP, so you have got a problem in the next 11 months to persuade

:14:44. > :14:46.people to come back? We have heard people on the backbenches, one were

:14:47. > :14:51.to saying you should merge with UKIP. What is your strategy to be if

:14:52. > :15:01.you are going to win back voters who have defected, in effect?

:15:02. > :15:08.I think, at the end of the day, when all of the votes are counted, we

:15:09. > :15:12.will be the largest party in local government, but the important point

:15:13. > :15:15.you just made is that this is not a good result for any of the three

:15:16. > :15:19.mainstream parties, because of the performance of UKIP, and we all have

:15:20. > :15:23.to draw lessons from that. I think what it shows is that those people

:15:24. > :15:27.are angry about politics, they are angry about certain issues in our

:15:28. > :15:31.country. There is a lot of frustration there, and the way we

:15:32. > :15:35.have to respond to that list and that anger into answers, and look at

:15:36. > :15:39.the issues that are causing the most concern. I think those are run the

:15:40. > :15:43.economy still, it is recovering but it is fragile, and people are

:15:44. > :15:47.concerned about that. It is about Europe, immigration, and welfare

:15:48. > :15:52.reform as well. We have a plan as a government on all these issues now.

:15:53. > :15:55.I think this shows we need to redouble our efforts, go further,

:15:56. > :15:59.see what else we can do, what lessons we draw from this. We have

:16:00. > :16:04.to do a better job at communicating that as well, and I hope by the time

:16:05. > :16:07.we get to the general election, that message will have got through. How

:16:08. > :16:13.much of this is people rejecting policy, and how much of it is

:16:14. > :16:17.rejecting the political class? Politicians, people like yourself as

:16:18. > :16:21.such? Because it is noticeable, Nigel Farage is saying, we are

:16:22. > :16:25.getting people voting who had stopped voting and who started

:16:26. > :16:30.voting for us because they so disliked what is going on. It is

:16:31. > :16:34.hard, but I think it is the bit of both, and you are right to point

:16:35. > :16:39.that out. It is about policies, and as I had to pick one, I think one

:16:40. > :16:42.that unites everyone who voted for UKIP yesterday is Europe and the

:16:43. > :16:46.need for reform in Europe. They feel that too many powers have gone to

:16:47. > :16:52.Brussels over the last few decades. I agree with them. You surprised me,

:16:53. > :16:57.I thought it was immigration that united people in voting for UKIP.

:16:58. > :17:01.Immigration may be another, but the two are very much linked,

:17:02. > :17:06.immigration and EU rules around immigration. We have a policy on

:17:07. > :17:10.that, we want to reform the EU, renegotiate and put that to the

:17:11. > :17:14.people in a referendum. Are you going to be able to cut immigration

:17:15. > :17:20.while remaining within the EU? That is the question UKIP will be

:17:21. > :17:25.asking, and surely the answer is no. If we can get sensible reform, the

:17:26. > :17:32.answer would be yes but... Cut immigration from the EU? We would

:17:33. > :17:35.look at the borders policy, that is something we have already

:17:36. > :17:38.articulated. But at least we have a policy that recognises where the

:17:39. > :17:43.problems are, we have a plan to deal with that, and we want to then put

:17:44. > :17:47.that to the people and let them decide in a referendum. Both Labour

:17:48. > :17:51.and the Lib Dems don't have a policy on Europe for reform. They don't

:17:52. > :17:54.even want a referendum. I think it is important at times like this to

:17:55. > :17:59.listen to the people, take that into account, and for politicians to

:18:00. > :18:05.react, and not just brush it off as a protest vote. But to clarify that

:18:06. > :18:09.point, a lot of suppositions obviously, the Tories have to be the

:18:10. > :18:13.largest party or have to form the Government, they don't have to have

:18:14. > :18:18.the Lib Dems because they will not go along with it. You go into

:18:19. > :18:22.negotiations in Europe, and you say that part of those negotiations,

:18:23. > :18:25.from your point of view, will be controlling immigration from states

:18:26. > :18:31.that are already members of the European Union. If you don't get

:18:32. > :18:35.that, are you saying vote no, pull out of Europe? I am not saying that

:18:36. > :18:40.at all. We will have a set of negotiations, we will renegotiate

:18:41. > :18:44.membership, the rules of membership, and we will let the British people

:18:45. > :18:51.decide. Mary Creagh, let's turn to Labour. The story with Labour seems

:18:52. > :18:54.to be, and I am not a Sue Pollard just, the story seems to be that you

:18:55. > :19:02.ought to be doing better than you are at this stage. Psephologist.

:19:03. > :19:10.People who are that little bit behind do not hack it when election

:19:11. > :19:15.day comes. We have to look at the results as they come in. It used to

:19:16. > :19:19.be election night, but now it is election day, unfortunate for you!

:19:20. > :19:22.We are seeing progress in our plan to win a majority at the next

:19:23. > :19:26.election. We have taken control of the council in Cambridge, we have

:19:27. > :19:32.done well in Ipswich, very well in Redbridge. Good progress across

:19:33. > :19:37.London, but also places like Peterborough, Stevenage, Croydon,

:19:38. > :19:43.where we topped the poll. But you are slipping back from where you

:19:44. > :19:51.were in 2012. No, we have improved from where we were. We are making

:19:52. > :19:54.steady progress. But against 2012, that was your big recovery, you

:19:55. > :20:01.appeared to have a momentum from the general election in 2010, and now it

:20:02. > :20:06.seems to have softened. There is undoubtedly a UKIP effect at work,

:20:07. > :20:10.and it is affecting all parties, and I do not think we can treat them

:20:11. > :20:14.with complacency, and we haven't. We have talked about the policies that

:20:15. > :20:19.we want to set out, we think people are still feeling the cost of living

:20:20. > :20:24.crisis, and Ed Miliband has set out a range of policies in that area to

:20:25. > :20:27.tackle insecurity at work, banning zero-hours contracts, to strengthen

:20:28. > :20:31.the minimum wage and give the 9 million people who rent their own

:20:32. > :20:35.home, rather than owning it, security of tenancy and the

:20:36. > :20:41.predictability of rentals that they need. Were you bold enough in

:20:42. > :20:45.confronting you get? I think so. No complaints? I think we have made a

:20:46. > :20:49.serious policy announcements throughout the period, we have a

:20:50. > :20:52.coalition government and the press is interested in spats between the

:20:53. > :20:57.Tories and the Liberal Democrats, who is saying what to who? Divisions

:20:58. > :21:02.within the Liberal Democrats which are merging with that very poor

:21:03. > :21:06.London picture, Lynne Featherstone speaking very candidly about the

:21:07. > :21:11.problems she feels, even though she is a government minister. And Nigel

:21:12. > :21:16.Farage is a media darling. Norman Smith. I can see how Labour campaign

:21:17. > :21:20.this as a strong result, they did well in London, they have done well

:21:21. > :21:26.in some isolated place like Crawley. But what strikes me is that

:21:27. > :21:32.they are still suffering from Southern discomfort. You are really

:21:33. > :21:36.not reclaiming the old Tony Blair land. I was looking at some of the

:21:37. > :21:41.areas that Labour people have been flagging up as progress, areas like

:21:42. > :21:45.Lincoln, Hastings, Peterborough, Cannock Chase. What is interesting

:21:46. > :21:50.is that they are gains of, in most cases, one councillor, and that

:21:51. > :21:55.seems to be the difficulty. Yes, you are making progress, but awfully

:21:56. > :21:58.slow. There is a sense you are beginning to lose momentum. The

:21:59. > :22:02.nearer you get to the election, and in part that is because your core

:22:03. > :22:07.story is the cost of living story, which is running out of time as the

:22:08. > :22:13.economy recovers. So there is progress, but surely there has to be

:22:14. > :22:15.considerable concern that the progress you are gaining is slowing

:22:16. > :22:22.down as we get closer... Well, Norman, the places you are talking

:22:23. > :22:28.about, Hastings, Stevenage... One councillor. But we have topped the

:22:29. > :22:34.poll, so that is a Labour gain off a conservative. Emily, we have got

:22:35. > :22:39.Manchester, a result, Andy Lynch Dems were nervous about Manchester,

:22:40. > :22:45.what has happened? -- and the Lib Dems. West Lancashire, the very top

:22:46. > :22:49.of the Tory list of marginals, somewhere that on a good night

:22:50. > :22:54.Labour could have taken. They have pushed it into no overall control.

:22:55. > :23:00.You can see what happened overnight, this is the story that

:23:01. > :23:05.Norman was outlining. Yes, a Labour gain, but just buy one, so almost

:23:06. > :23:09.like they have not got up the hill. They have got a bit of the momentum,

:23:10. > :23:15.but not quite enough. A different picture in Manchester, if I update

:23:16. > :23:20.this, you can see a clean sweep by Labour, quite an astonishing

:23:21. > :23:24.graphic, that. Labour won a majority of 94, the Lib Dems wiped out. Why

:23:25. > :23:30.is that so interesting? Let me show you what happens if I go back to

:23:31. > :23:34.show you the change. During the elections, Labour have piled on nine

:23:35. > :23:39.councillors at the expense of the Lib Dems. But if you look at these

:23:40. > :23:44.in a four-year cycle, if I take you back to the last general election,

:23:45. > :23:48.2010, then you really understand that a voyage that both parties have

:23:49. > :23:54.been on. Labour making these gains steadily, solidly, up 34, and the

:23:55. > :24:00.Lib Dems pushing down and down over the last four years, no longer on

:24:01. > :24:05.Manchester Council. Emily, thanks very much. Let's go out and about,

:24:06. > :24:09.Alex Forsyth is in Harrow, this is a council that Labour is hoping to

:24:10. > :24:16.regain control. What is the latest news Harrow? David, in the last two

:24:17. > :24:20.or three minutes Labour have regained control of the council here

:24:21. > :24:25.in Harrow. They have taken it, the final declaration a moment or two

:24:26. > :24:29.ago, but it is worth saying that this has not been the same picture

:24:30. > :24:35.as Labour in other areas of London. There has been no huge search in the

:24:36. > :24:40.Labour vote, rather this is a return to the levels of support that Labour

:24:41. > :24:44.saw in 2010. They took control then with a seven seat majority, but then

:24:45. > :24:49.the Labour group at an internal row locally, nine councillors formed an

:24:50. > :24:54.independent Labour group which left an opening for the Conservatives to

:24:55. > :24:57.take control of the council. So Labour have been trying to regain

:24:58. > :25:02.it, and they have done that, but not a huge change in their vote. The

:25:03. > :25:06.distribution of seats is almost identical to 2010, not just for the

:25:07. > :25:10.Labour Party but also for the Conservatives. Their vote has really

:25:11. > :25:13.held up. The question is whether or not that division has had an impact

:25:14. > :25:18.on the gains they have managed to make here, because they have not

:25:19. > :25:22.seen the same upsurge we have seen elsewhere in London. The question is

:25:23. > :25:24.whether they have done enough to put themselves in a good position for

:25:25. > :25:28.the Parliamentary elections next year, because it is areas like this

:25:29. > :25:32.where they will be wanting to make gains if they are gone to take a

:25:33. > :25:37.majority in the general election. Tim Donovan is in Barnet, the

:25:38. > :25:43.political editor for the whole of London. Can you give us a resume of

:25:44. > :25:51.the picture in London as a whole as you see it? Well, if what Alex says

:25:52. > :25:56.is right and Harrow has gone to Labour, that take them up to 20

:25:57. > :26:01.councils, I think, in London, which is higher... It has only been

:26:02. > :26:06.surpassed once, 1971, when Labour were in control of 21 councils, and

:26:07. > :26:10.we have got Tower Hamlet, the mayoral and Council contest later,

:26:11. > :26:15.and then here at Barnet, where the Conservative leader arrived earlier

:26:16. > :26:20.feeling pretty upbeat that they had kept this. Labour needed 11 seats to

:26:21. > :26:24.take it, but he took one look at the Hammersmith and Fulham result and

:26:25. > :26:30.thought, I am not quite so perky anymore. Something slightly unusual

:26:31. > :26:35.has happened here, because the Green candidate in one of the wards died,

:26:36. > :26:39.so they have suspended the contest in that ward, where Labour currently

:26:40. > :26:44.holds three seats. That contest is now about 60 rather than 63 seats,

:26:45. > :26:50.and it means Labour need far more to take control of the council today,

:26:51. > :26:54.13 as opposed to 11, and it also raises the possibility that they

:26:55. > :26:58.might come short today but the final ward is due to go to an election in

:26:59. > :27:03.one month's time. So it is possible, if they come up short,

:27:04. > :27:08.Labour could still win this council in and's time. One other thing to

:27:09. > :27:12.say, a very local factor of this enchantment that may well play in

:27:13. > :27:16.here against the Conservatives. You know it was known as the Easy

:27:17. > :27:23.council, the model of cheap and cheerful services, and if you wanted

:27:24. > :27:27.more, you have to pay more. It has been unpopular, cashless parking,

:27:28. > :27:32.the introduction of that was really unpopular here, and it is possible

:27:33. > :27:37.that will be a crucial factor later today. Thank you very much. Harriet

:27:38. > :27:40.Harman is patiently waiting in Westminster, I will come to you in

:27:41. > :27:48.just a moment if he will stay with us while we briefly go up to

:27:49. > :27:51.Bradford and join Lynne Tingle, the Yorkshire political editor. Labour

:27:52. > :27:58.failed to take control, what is the picture there? Well, Bradford was

:27:59. > :28:02.the jewel in the crown for Labour. They went into this election two

:28:03. > :28:08.short of a majority, in fact it's got three, but one was clawed back

:28:09. > :28:12.by UKIP, and this is the subtext - UKIP put up 15 candidates, they only

:28:13. > :28:19.won one, but in half a dozen others they were only 30 or 40 behind

:28:20. > :28:24.Labour. The other subtext is that two years ago, George Galloway's

:28:25. > :28:30.Respect won five seats, and they said they would go for many more.

:28:31. > :28:33.This time around Respect put up ten candidates and were smashed, not

:28:34. > :28:40.coming anywhere near a sniff of ACT in any of them. So it is looking

:28:41. > :28:46.like the beginning of the end. Over in Kirklees, and in Calderdale,

:28:47. > :28:53.Huddersfield and Halifax, in real money, very little change there.

:28:54. > :28:56.Labour had ambitions to take the three or five seats that they

:28:57. > :29:01.needed, but it is finished of virtually as it was when they went

:29:02. > :29:05.in. Thank you very much indeed. We are joined now by Harriet Harman

:29:06. > :29:12.from Westminster. You have heard the projected national share, I am sure,

:29:13. > :29:16.with Labour on 31, the Conservatives chasing you two points behind on 29.

:29:17. > :29:23.Are you a bit disconcerted by the way these elections have worked out

:29:24. > :29:28.for Labour? We are concerned about the evident anger and disaffection

:29:29. > :29:31.that is out there amongst voters, which is lying behind the increased

:29:32. > :29:39.votes for UKIP, inevitably, but it is not true to say that of the three

:29:40. > :29:43.main parties we are all in the same vote. If you look at the bottom of

:29:44. > :29:47.your screen, the Tories have lost seats, the Lib Dems have lost seats,

:29:48. > :29:54.and we have gained hundreds, and that is in addition to the more than

:29:55. > :29:58.1950 that we have gained since 2010, and I think that is important not

:29:59. > :30:02.just as an indication of the momentum that the Labour Party has,

:30:03. > :30:07.but also because it means that there are Labour councillors on the

:30:08. > :30:10.ground, and Labour councils actually protecting people in the situation

:30:11. > :30:14.where they are feeling squeezed and feeling under pressure. So you

:30:15. > :30:18.know, I warmly congratulate all those hundreds of new Labour

:30:19. > :30:22.councillors that have won their seats off Tories and Lib Dems and

:30:23. > :30:27.others, and they have got a really important job to do. We have heard

:30:28. > :30:33.Labour voices last night and today critical of Ed Miliband and the

:30:34. > :30:38.group around him for not fighting a tougher battle against Nigel Farage

:30:39. > :30:42.and UKIP, not making clearer their hostility towards what UKIP stood

:30:43. > :30:46.for. What is your reaction to that? Well, it depends whether you think

:30:47. > :30:50.you skip the cause of the problem or the symptom and, you know, what

:30:51. > :30:55.people said to me on the doorstep as I went all around the country is,

:30:56. > :30:59.they looked me straight in the face and said "I'm going to vote UKIP,le

:31:00. > :31:04.though I'm a Labour supporters because I think you all need a

:31:05. > :31:07.shake-up". I don't think they were basically saying, well they

:31:08. > :31:12.certainly weren't saying they want Nige feel Raj as Prime Minister or

:31:13. > :31:15.we think they have got a better Health Service policy and therefore

:31:16. > :31:20.our approach needs to be to listen to people's anger and their concern

:31:21. > :31:23.and understand their problem about the squeeze on them and the

:31:24. > :31:28.frustration they feel with politics and respond to that. I really do

:31:29. > :31:32.think that people have said, I'm going to vote UKIP, to send you lot

:31:33. > :31:37.a message, and we've got to listen to that, but despite that, the truth

:31:38. > :31:40.is, we have made gains where the Tories and the Liberal Democrats

:31:41. > :31:44.have fallen back. There is a lot of rerith writing of history, of people

:31:45. > :31:51.say, we should be doing miles better. That's nonsense. After the

:31:52. > :31:55.Tories lost in 1997, they carried on losing council seats after that. We

:31:56. > :32:00.lost in 2010, but we are now gaining.

:32:01. > :32:05.Listening to that analysis of Labour's position, Harriet Harman,

:32:06. > :32:10.is the Labour MP for Rochdale in our Manchester studio. You heard what

:32:11. > :32:14.Harriet Harman said. Has she got it right? I think she has. Labour's

:32:15. > :32:17.done well in the elections, we have gained many council seats. The

:32:18. > :32:22.Tories have been losing council seats. The Liberals have had a

:32:23. > :32:27.disastrous council election. It's worth bearing in mind that Ed

:32:28. > :32:30.Miliband has gained more council seats in opposition than David

:32:31. > :32:37.Cameron ever managed to do in opposition. If we look at it, they

:32:38. > :32:41.have had a terrible time of it with Manchester City Council, none of

:32:42. > :32:45.them on there at all. If you look at Rochdale, they are down to one.

:32:46. > :32:49.Rochdale constituency itself doesn't have a single Liberal councillor

:32:50. > :32:53.within it. This used to be a stronghold not that long ago. They

:32:54. > :32:58.have had a devastating night in. Terms of UKIP, I think it's easy to

:32:59. > :33:03.simplify the problem and say, it's just a protest and perhaps this is

:33:04. > :33:08.where myself and Harriet have divertiant views. I think it's a bit

:33:09. > :33:12.more complex than that. I think people are switched off by

:33:13. > :33:16.politicians of all political parties, but my interest is in

:33:17. > :33:20.Labour ones. Those that don't do enough for their constituent who is

:33:21. > :33:23.'re too relaxed don't look after their constituents, whether they are

:33:24. > :33:29.Labour councillors or Labour MPs and I think there's a job of work to be

:33:30. > :33:33.done to get our members, activist party, councillors and MPs to engage

:33:34. > :33:37.better with the electorate. That's the first concern I have about UKIP.

:33:38. > :33:41.That's where I think they have taken advantage of the situation. The

:33:42. > :33:45.second is in terms of policy. I think people do vote for UKIP

:33:46. > :33:48.because they are unhappy about the mainstream party's views on

:33:49. > :33:52.immigration and welfare. I think we, as party, need to be stronger on

:33:53. > :33:58.that. But the third most important point I think is about UKIP's

:33:59. > :34:04.ability to have a passionate conversation with the electorate and

:34:05. > :34:09.I think they actively avoid sloganing and key messages and they

:34:10. > :34:16.have a conversation, they might know agree with the spoils but they

:34:17. > :34:22.engage with the public -- with the policies. Less stage managele, less

:34:23. > :34:28.speeches behind lecterns, more getting out in the public would do

:34:29. > :34:33.us some advantage in terms of doing even better. You did criticise Ed

:34:34. > :34:38.Miliband for "continually reciting a mantra of misery" and that wasn't

:34:39. > :34:42.the answer, you have to speak the language of aspiration. You are

:34:43. > :34:47.really saying Ed Miliband hasn't got it right yet? Well, no, there's work

:34:48. > :34:51.to be tone, we are 11 months from a general election and I'm a critical

:34:52. > :34:55.friend. The stakes are very high in this. I want Lake to succeed in that

:34:56. > :34:58.general election and ensure that we have a Labour Government to help our

:34:59. > :35:02.working people, middle class people, so that we can have a decent

:35:03. > :35:07.standard of living. So of course Higham construct Nivel terms of

:35:08. > :35:13.offering suggestsions about how we can get ilk right. The biggest issue

:35:14. > :35:17.is the economy. We do need to look business friendly and need to speak

:35:18. > :35:20.about entrepreneurialism, about being on the side of business. We

:35:21. > :35:24.have excellent business policies, but it doesn't seem to break through

:35:25. > :35:28.and we have to think of different ways of engaging with people to be

:35:29. > :35:33.able to get that message across. What is it that Nige feel Raj has in

:35:34. > :35:39.terms of getting a message across, of connecting, as your colleague was

:35:40. > :35:43.saying, connecting with the voters that, for some reason, you haven't,

:35:44. > :35:48.despite having Ed Miliband in place, for some time now, haven't yet

:35:49. > :35:54.managed to develop? Well, you've got to look at figures

:35:55. > :35:58.first and it's true that whilst we have gained more councils,

:35:59. > :36:01.councillor, and we have still got more results to come in, certainly

:36:02. > :36:05.UKIP have gained a lot of councillors, and that's what the

:36:06. > :36:09.numbers show and the percentage share of the vote. What I can tell

:36:10. > :36:14.you is what people said to me on the doorstep and it's this disaffection

:36:15. > :36:17.with politics, this sense that the main political parties don't

:36:18. > :36:21.understand what's going on in their lives, and the gap between

:36:22. > :36:25.Government and the voters. We have to address that. That's what people

:36:26. > :36:30.are saying with their vote and we have to listen to that and reflect

:36:31. > :36:33.reflect on that. One thing that came over strongly around the country is

:36:34. > :36:37.that people are saying that despite the fact that obviously it's welcome

:36:38. > :36:41.that the figures about employment and economic growth seem to be

:36:42. > :36:44.better, everybody is saying they don't feel that they are better off

:36:45. > :36:48.and that's one of the really important things that Ed Miliband

:36:49. > :36:52.has put on the political agenda, the question of the cost-of-living and

:36:53. > :36:57.our policies to address that. Yes there is a big gap between the sense

:36:58. > :37:02.of the traditional political parties and the voters and they have really

:37:03. > :37:06.expressed anger within that. But also, as far as the three main

:37:07. > :37:09.parties are concerned, we have won those elections, we are not

:37:10. > :37:13.complacent, but we have got momentum.

:37:14. > :37:17.But are you dismayed as a professional politician of many

:37:18. > :37:21.years standing, that you are probably now deemed as politicians,

:37:22. > :37:26.as a political class, the lowest to have low? Everybody in the

:37:27. > :37:29.nonpolitical world when asked about it always says you can't trust

:37:30. > :37:34.politicians and all the rest of it, all the things that perhaps have led

:37:35. > :37:35.politicians and all the rest of it, to devote UKIP. It must dismay, or

:37:36. > :37:42.do you think you are getting your just dessert inners some way?

:37:43. > :37:46.Dismaying in a way it relates back to the big rupture there was around

:37:47. > :37:51.expenses and the big problems that people felt with the global

:37:52. > :37:54.financial crisis. I think it's also very dismaying because people are

:37:55. > :37:58.entitled to have a democracy that they can believe in and that they

:37:59. > :38:05.can trust and that they feel will deliver for them. It's not just

:38:06. > :38:09.about the policies, although as Mary Cray said, the policies on making

:38:10. > :38:12.sure rents don't go through the roof and controlling energy bills, and

:38:13. > :38:17.cutting business rates for small businesses, those policies are very

:38:18. > :38:21.resonant but people needs more than policies, they need be able to have

:38:22. > :38:25.confidence in their local and national politicians and we have got

:38:26. > :38:29.more work to do and that's what we understand from these election

:38:30. > :38:32.results. Sajid Javid, do you agree with that?

:38:33. > :38:38.Yes, I do. I came into politics Sajid Javid, do you agree with that?

:38:39. > :38:44.2010. In fact, before I came in, I was a banker and becoming a

:38:45. > :38:50.politician, I actually saw my reputation actually increase as a

:38:51. > :38:52.result of that, you know. LAUGHTER

:38:53. > :38:58.So Harriet is right to point that out. I think there is still a long

:38:59. > :39:01.way to go. The expenses scandal was part of it, but I think it's deeper

:39:02. > :39:06.than that. You have seen that today. We saw nit last year's local

:39:07. > :39:09.election results, we have seen it again, people are angry and

:39:10. > :39:13.frustrate and expect more from the mainstream parties and we need to

:39:14. > :39:18.listen to this result and we need to react. As I said before, the issues

:39:19. > :39:23.around Europe, the immigration, the economy, welfare we form, these are

:39:24. > :39:26.the kind of issues when you talk to people on the doorstep, they were

:39:27. > :39:30.concerned about these issues day in day out and we need to show there is

:39:31. > :39:35.a plank. We have a long-term plan for that -- plan. We have to

:39:36. > :39:38.redouble our efforts. Where Labour are stuck is that they don't have a

:39:39. > :39:42.plan to deal with the issues, the challenges that are facing our

:39:43. > :39:47.country. But don't let's go off into Party Politics for a moment. Let's

:39:48. > :39:51.deal with politics as such. I mean, do voters perhaps expect too much

:39:52. > :39:55.from politicians? When life is difficult, when you've had a

:39:56. > :39:59.recession, leave aside the expenses scandal, do you think in an odd way,

:40:00. > :40:06.vote voters expect their politicians to be able to wave a magic wand and

:40:07. > :40:09.everything will be better? Is that why they dislike and distrust the

:40:10. > :40:16.political class, they think they all lie to you and then go off and vote

:40:17. > :40:20.UKIP? I don't think people have unrealistic expectations. They want

:40:21. > :40:26.a good school for their child, the opportunity for them to be able to

:40:27. > :40:30.progress to university without huge fees, decent well-paid work that

:40:31. > :40:34.gives them the chance of perhaps going on holiday, perhaps buying

:40:35. > :40:37.nice clothes every now and again. People have straightforward wishes

:40:38. > :40:40.on the other hand's pretty much the same over the world. Harriet is

:40:41. > :40:47.right, politics is difficult at the moment. I still think it's a noble,

:40:48. > :40:52.challenging, difficult job, but I'm proud to do the job. I did nine

:40:53. > :40:54.years in Parliament and I think democracy is vital and people

:40:55. > :40:58.deserve better than the policies they have had from this Government.

:40:59. > :41:02.Yes, but you are going off into policy again and maybe you are right

:41:03. > :41:07.to, but do you feel yourself in Local Government and as an MP that

:41:08. > :41:11.people look down on politicians, sort of people betrayed by a

:41:12. > :41:15.political class? People have a good relationship off within their local

:41:16. > :41:19.councillor and MP and like the individual, but then when people

:41:20. > :41:22.talk about politicians, the collective stock falls. That's for

:41:23. > :41:29.whatever party. We'll sit here, argue, debate, disagree sometimes

:41:30. > :41:32.within our party, but which we still have a basic respect of each other,

:41:33. > :41:35.we are part of a healthy, functioning democracy and look

:41:36. > :41:40.around the rest of the world and see what happens when that fails and the

:41:41. > :41:43.consequences are catastrophic. Why don't voters feel like Mary does,

:41:44. > :41:49.Harriet Harman, ability the nobility of the political calling? I think

:41:50. > :41:54.what is striking is that actually there's been a strong connection

:41:55. > :41:58.between people and local councils and local councillors and although

:41:59. > :42:02.the turnout is always low, there's not that sense I don't think of

:42:03. > :42:07.rupture between people and local councils. I think it's more the case

:42:08. > :42:11.of the sense of people and Government and people and the

:42:12. > :42:15.European Parliament. The best antidote to that is to just be out

:42:16. > :42:19.and amongst people and listening on their doorstep. I don't think people

:42:20. > :42:24.have got unrealistic expectations, but they do expect politicians not

:42:25. > :42:28.to be locked away in the corridors of power. They expect them to be

:42:29. > :42:32.down there on their doorstep in their communities and expect them to

:42:33. > :42:38.be on their side. They don't expect us to wave a magic wand but they

:42:39. > :42:42.don't expect us to make promises either that we can't deliver on. In

:42:43. > :42:46.the Labour Party we are reflecting on what people are saying to us

:42:47. > :42:49.whilst at the same time recognising that we have got momentum, we have

:42:50. > :42:53.got a lot of councillors and they'll be part of reflecting and taking

:42:54. > :43:00.things forward. Malcolm Bruce, you have been in politics a long time,

:43:01. > :43:05.have you seen a decline in the belief in politicians on the part of

:43:06. > :43:10.voters, the belief in politicians doings what they say they'll do?

:43:11. > :43:14.Yes. I've also seen a decline in the engagement. One frustrating thing

:43:15. > :43:18.very often is people seem to be able to respond to disaffection. We have

:43:19. > :43:22.had a terrible collapse in the economy, so people have been hurt. I

:43:23. > :43:26.don't blame people for being angry and resentment. If they'll get is

:43:27. > :43:29.analysis saying you are angry and hurt, vote for us we feel your pain

:43:30. > :43:32.but have no solutions, that doesn't get us into a very good space. What

:43:33. > :43:37.people want to be able to do is think through what the policies are.

:43:38. > :43:41.For us, the doorstep works, all of us go on doorsteps and have really

:43:42. > :43:44.good engagement, but public consultations and meetings don't

:43:45. > :43:48.work. We have a real frustration because there is a mismatch between

:43:49. > :43:51.the public and politicians that doesn't get them engage and it's

:43:52. > :43:56.difficult to get people to think about the issues. Europe is a

:43:57. > :44:00.problem, but is leading it a solution? We have problems in the

:44:01. > :44:04.economy, but, you know, people can have a proper debate as to how we

:44:05. > :44:07.tackle it will deficit. Labour's problem is, we get the impression

:44:08. > :44:10.they didn't create the deaf six and they haven't got a solution to it.

:44:11. > :44:14.We need a proper debate that says we have got to tackle the deficit, we

:44:15. > :44:19.have got to engage people about it and have an honest debate about the

:44:20. > :44:24.priorities. Why is it harder to get the argument going now than it was

:44:25. > :44:29.20-30 years ago? Perhaps people 20 or 30 years ago, we had a two-party

:44:30. > :44:35.system. I came in to try to help that and we have contrith tributed

:44:36. > :44:39.towards that. You were the Nigel Farage-type? The Liberal Democrats

:44:40. > :44:44.and the Liberal Party before that broke open the system and the SDP

:44:45. > :44:47.added to that. I don't think it's going to go back in the box. One

:44:48. > :44:52.thing people won't accept is that it's just red, it's just blue, one

:44:53. > :44:55.or the other, and they'll somehow solve our problems. No-one's going

:44:56. > :44:58.to win outright by the look of it and we have to get used to the fact

:44:59. > :45:02.that politics requires working together and having more of an adult

:45:03. > :45:08.conversation which involves the electorate. Let's have a very adult

:45:09. > :45:10.look at the - I love this bit - the new House of Commons had it been

:45:11. > :45:27.elected today. Jeremy. Of course, we have to say that

:45:28. > :45:33.people bowed generally at general elections to the way they do at

:45:34. > :45:38.locals, but to take the figures and use them is somewhat speculative,

:45:39. > :45:44.but let's do it anyway! Here are the projected national share figures

:45:45. > :45:51.that we think the parties will possibly have had a general

:45:52. > :45:55.election. 13% Lib Dems, I have folded the UKIP into this figure for

:45:56. > :45:59.the others, you will see the effect in a second. That is our projected

:46:00. > :46:03.national share for these local elections. What would happen if they

:46:04. > :46:08.had been a general election today and people had voted in that way?

:46:09. > :46:15.Let's feel the chamber, shall we? Labour, the biggest party, 322 MPs.

:46:16. > :46:24.On the opposition benches, the Conservatives, here we go, how many

:46:25. > :46:30.of them? 255. Liberal Democrats, let's see, 45 of them. The others,

:46:31. > :46:34.including UKIP, 28. Very difficult to know what kind of representation

:46:35. > :46:38.UKIP will have. But that would be the result if we simply directly

:46:39. > :46:45.transposed the local election results today to the nationals, is

:46:46. > :46:50.there a majority? Labour would be short of an overall majority by four

:46:51. > :46:54.seats, because you need 326, they haven't got enough. On the basis of

:46:55. > :46:57.this, they could beckon the Liberal Democrats over to the other side of

:46:58. > :47:01.the chamber, you could have a different kind of coalition. Before

:47:02. > :47:06.we go back to our discussion, we should add something here, which is

:47:07. > :47:10.that in a few month there is a referendum on Scottish independence.

:47:11. > :47:15.There are 59 Scottish MPs in the House of Commons, 41 of them Labour.

:47:16. > :47:19.What happens if the Scots go independent and those MPs disappear

:47:20. > :47:23.from the chamber? What happens then? We will feed in the same numbers,

:47:24. > :47:27.those projected national share figures from the Council elections,

:47:28. > :47:34.and who is the biggest party now? Labour again, but this time 277, so

:47:35. > :47:40.way short of a majority. Conservatives, how many? 255.

:47:41. > :47:48.Liberal Democrats on 37, the others, including UKIP, bring them on, how

:47:49. > :47:57.many? 22. The result of that, taking up the Scottish MPs, is, let's

:47:58. > :48:02.see... Labour short by 19. So now they really do need help to form a

:48:03. > :48:06.working majority, maybe some Liberal Democrats, maybe some UKIP as well.

:48:07. > :48:09.There we are, very speculative, I thought you would ask about that.

:48:10. > :48:15.What happens at the Scottish MPs are not there? It gets much harder for

:48:16. > :48:21.Labour to form a majority. The interesting point is that everybody

:48:22. > :48:24.says, quite wrongly, without Scotland there would be a permanent

:48:25. > :48:29.Tory majority in England and Wales. It is not so, and going back to the

:48:30. > :48:38.war, only two or three occasions when he would have had a

:48:39. > :48:43.Conservative majority. In 1955. Yes, there you are, so take this on, four

:48:44. > :48:47.short of a majority, assuming Scotland votes no for the moment,

:48:48. > :48:54.four short, what would you do? We are not going to be four short. No,

:48:55. > :49:01.this is a game! Lower your guard... This is what gives politics a bad

:49:02. > :49:05.name, idle speculation. No, it is about attitude. The attitude of the

:49:06. > :49:10.media is to go into all sorts of turgid twisting and turning, rather

:49:11. > :49:14.than looking at the results. I wanted to talk about Tim and Labour

:49:15. > :49:20.getting the highest number of councils since 1971 in London, and

:49:21. > :49:27.what that would mean... Indulge me for a moment. If Labour assured of a

:49:28. > :49:31.majority, can you imagine a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition?

:49:32. > :49:36.We are going all out to be the largest party... I know that, I

:49:37. > :49:39.know. We wait to see what the British people and the Scottish

:49:40. > :49:44.people decide in the referendum, and we wait to see the outcome of the

:49:45. > :49:49.general election. As a party, your attitude, would you do anything to

:49:50. > :49:52.avoid coalition government? Or would you see, because many Liberal

:49:53. > :49:57.Democrats at the last election thought that they should have gone

:49:58. > :50:01.in with Labour, with Gordon Brown as a coalition partner? What is not

:50:02. > :50:06.clear from Jeremy's analysis is what the make-up would be of the other

:50:07. > :50:10.parties. Obviously, we have the SDLP in Northern Ireland, their Welsh

:50:11. > :50:15.nationalists, the Scottish national would go. But I think, if we had the

:50:16. > :50:21.chance to be in government and serve the British people, we would want to

:50:22. > :50:24.form a government. And you are suffering, of course, from the fact

:50:25. > :50:30.that the Tories need a lot more votes to form a majority in the

:50:31. > :50:35.House of Commons than Labour. Well, we failed to change the boundaries

:50:36. > :50:42.to make them equal, and that failure... Is it similar to failing

:50:43. > :50:45.to reform the House of Lords? Everything is connected! Not

:50:46. > :50:50.changing the boundaries makes it much harder for Conservatives to win

:50:51. > :50:55.a majority. What we will do is work as hard as we can to get as many MPs

:50:56. > :51:01.as we can, that is what we will be focused on, getting a majority. What

:51:02. > :51:07.to make of this? I will play the game... I am going to play the game!

:51:08. > :51:10.Mary cannot say what a minority government would do, but my guess is

:51:11. > :51:16.they would go into coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg

:51:17. > :51:20.would be chucked overboard, and the task facing a Labour government, if

:51:21. > :51:24.it is committed to reducing the deficit, will involve horrifically

:51:25. > :51:27.difficult decisions in terms of benefits and spending, and there

:51:28. > :51:30.will be major rebellions on the backbenches. You won't be able to

:51:31. > :51:35.carry it through unless you have a decent working majority, think of

:51:36. > :51:41.the grief John Major had when he had a dozen or so. It is a game, I know,

:51:42. > :51:46.but if that was the outcome, I think it would be very hard for Labour to

:51:47. > :51:52.try to push through very difficult decisions, which it will have to

:51:53. > :51:56.do... And I say that given these results, given those projections, if

:51:57. > :51:59.the parties are not prepared to give any indication to the electorate of

:52:00. > :52:03.how they would react, not the outcome, I agree you cannot predict

:52:04. > :52:06.that, but how he would approach it, I do not think the electorate will

:52:07. > :52:10.find it credible. We have had coalition government, it was not

:52:11. > :52:14.expected, but it has fundamentally worked on the core issues, the

:52:15. > :52:18.economy is improving as a result, and we have been able to deliver

:52:19. > :52:22.policies that would not have been possible without the coalition. If

:52:23. > :52:25.the electorate there is, if there is no overall majority, we need to know

:52:26. > :52:29.whether there will be constructive engagement, whether a coalition

:52:30. > :52:33.comes out of it or not depends on whether you find common ground, but

:52:34. > :52:36.an unwillingness to engage would smack of arrogance which would

:52:37. > :52:40.punish the party that took that view? We are joined by Neil Hamilton

:52:41. > :52:45.from our Westminster studio, good afternoon, standing as a councillor

:52:46. > :52:55.in Wandsworth, I have not got it wrong, have I? Four UKIP, of course.

:52:56. > :52:58.That is correct. How did you do? Not brilliantly, I was travelling all

:52:59. > :53:01.over the country seeing how the campaign was being delivered on the

:53:02. > :53:05.ground, and a central London is not the happiest of hunting grounds for

:53:06. > :53:10.UKIP, but nevertheless we have done better than last time, and we will

:53:11. > :53:17.improve upon our performance next time. How many votes did you get? I

:53:18. > :53:25.think it was 389. I would probably have done worse if I had campaigned!

:53:26. > :53:31.How many did the winner get? About 2000. I did vote for myself! You did

:53:32. > :53:38.do that, anyway. Why did you choose to go there? It is a ward in which I

:53:39. > :53:43.have lived for 30 odd years. So they know you well, you mean! That

:53:44. > :53:52.proverb the the result! What you of UKIP's overall position? -- that

:53:53. > :53:58.probably explains the results. Are you going to stand as an MP? I very

:53:59. > :54:04.probably will, yes, I haven't decided finally as yet, but it is an

:54:05. > :54:07.exhilarating ride that UKIP is on, and we are making fundamental

:54:08. > :54:12.difference to the political system. The other parties won't talk in any

:54:13. > :54:16.meaningful sense about the big issues that are worrying the people

:54:17. > :54:20.of this country, and UKIP is forcing them to try and do so. And it is

:54:21. > :54:24.their failure to be able to resonate with the British people that has

:54:25. > :54:31.produced this result today. Back to Trafford maybe. I'm afraid I have

:54:32. > :54:37.not seen the result in Trafford. That is just coming in. I meant

:54:38. > :54:44.statin. Well, I not quite sure. Would I stand in Tatton? I shall not

:54:45. > :54:52.be troubling George Osborne with my presence! You say it is an exciting

:54:53. > :54:58.time for UKIP. How do you see this UKIP vote which the psephologists

:54:59. > :55:02.see as spread very thin? It is an incredibly difficult hurdle to leap

:55:03. > :55:08.to get from getting the kind of popular vote you got today, what was

:55:09. > :55:15.it? 17% in the national share, actually to winning even one seat is

:55:16. > :55:23.a major, major problem for you, because he was bred so thin. The 17%

:55:24. > :55:24.figure is misleading, because we did not put at candidates in every seat.

:55:25. > :55:28.figure is misleading, because we did There were quite a lot of seats

:55:29. > :55:34.where we did not have the manpower to find

:55:35. > :55:35.where we did not have the manpower election, if we had tested

:55:36. > :55:38.where we did not have the manpower the seats, that figure would have

:55:39. > :55:42.been substantially increased, I am sure. Where we have stood, the

:55:43. > :55:48.average percentage was between 25% and 30%, and indeed you say that is

:55:49. > :55:53.not going to be translated into seat at the general election, but

:55:54. > :55:57.curiously, if the results of today's election were to be

:55:58. > :56:01.replicated at a general election, we would have won Rotherham, for

:56:02. > :56:05.example, one of Labour's safest seats normally, and several in

:56:06. > :56:10.Essex. And if you look at the county council elections of last May, then

:56:11. > :56:17.there are at least ten seats we would have won, and maybe a good few

:56:18. > :56:21.more, because we were only very marginally short of a majority of

:56:22. > :56:25.the popular vote. So I think what is happening here is that, with every

:56:26. > :56:29.election that has us, UKIP is becoming more credible as a choice

:56:30. > :56:34.for people in national elections, and you can't, I think, speculate on

:56:35. > :56:38.what is going to happen next time simply by looking at what happened

:56:39. > :56:42.four years ago. We are changing the political consciousness of the

:56:43. > :56:46.country. Can I just do a reality check on that with John Curtice?

:56:47. > :56:49.Neil Hamilton said that, for instance, on this basis they would

:56:50. > :56:53.have taken Rotherham as a Parliamentary constituency. Our

:56:54. > :56:59.there constituencies that, on the basis of the local election results,

:57:00. > :57:05.in your view, they would take? They would have won great Grimsby. We

:57:06. > :57:09.think they might have won castle point. I cannot argue about

:57:10. > :57:15.Rotherham, we did not collect detailed results there, but Mr

:57:16. > :57:19.Hamilton's claim has a ring of credibility to it. So in terms of

:57:20. > :57:23.making this jump from being a party thinly spread, you think it is

:57:24. > :57:28.perfectly feasible, on the basis of the results we have had over

:57:29. > :57:33.yesterday and today, FOI UKIP to expect a presence in the House of

:57:34. > :57:37.Commons? That is two things, what has happened today and what might

:57:38. > :57:41.happen, two separate questions. It is clear that there are some

:57:42. > :57:44.constituencies outside London where UKIP were doing well enough, and

:57:45. > :57:50.conversely there opponents were doing equally badly enough, for UKIP

:57:51. > :57:56.to come head. To that extent, at least, if these figures were

:57:57. > :58:00.replicated across the country as a whole, they might have picked up a

:58:01. > :58:04.few seats. That is partly as a consequence of this being two rather

:58:05. > :58:08.separate elections. Because UKIP have not done very well in London,

:58:09. > :58:13.they have done rather well in prevention England, certain parts of

:58:14. > :58:17.it, and certainly there vote is a bit more geographically concentrated

:58:18. > :58:21.today than it was 48 hours ago, at least across this section of

:58:22. > :58:24.England. To that extent at least, UKIP have made some of the kind of

:58:25. > :58:28.concentration they need, although the truth is they need a lot more,

:58:29. > :58:32.there vote is very geographically evenly spread, as compared with that

:58:33. > :58:38.of the other parties. Why don't you hack it in London, not you

:58:39. > :58:42.personally, but UKIP? We weren't expecting to do brilliantly in

:58:43. > :58:47.central London. London is a very cosmopolitan city, this issue, this

:58:48. > :58:51.election has been largely about immigration. UKIP has been lampooned

:58:52. > :58:57.by the other parties and the national media, which has equated

:58:58. > :59:01.concerned about immigration with allegations of racism. That hasn't

:59:02. > :59:04.helped, of course. Less than half the people who live in central

:59:05. > :59:11.London were born in the United Kingdom. That may have an impact as

:59:12. > :59:14.well from a party that calls itself the UK Independence Party. There are

:59:15. > :59:20.all sorts of reasons we could speculate on, we haven't done that

:59:21. > :59:23.well, I think, in the big conurbation type areas, like

:59:24. > :59:31.Manchester, but we have done very well in provincial cities, some

:59:32. > :59:36.urban areas in the north, in the north-east we have done extremely

:59:37. > :59:42.well, in places like Sunderland and so on. So I think you will find,

:59:43. > :59:45.yeah, we have not of course done well across the entire country, but

:59:46. > :59:50.none of the other parties does well across the country. The Tories are

:59:51. > :59:54.dead in the water over urban England as a whole, and in the North in

:59:55. > :59:58.particular. We can take votes from both Labour and the Tories, and the

:59:59. > :00:03.Liberals, for that matter, all over the country. There is not a street

:00:04. > :00:08.we can go down we do not find UKIP supporters, whereas the other

:00:09. > :00:11.parties cannot say that. Well, except in London. Central London is

:00:12. > :00:16.different, I quite agree. Outer London has been pretty good, in

:00:17. > :00:20.Bexley we won just three seats, but we were very close in loads of other

:00:21. > :00:26.seats in that Boro, and I am sure that when the other results come

:00:27. > :00:32.in, we will see that replicated again. UKIP has had, obviously, a

:00:33. > :00:36.difficult time trying to establish itself, getting people used to the

:00:37. > :00:39.fact that we exist, getting to know who we are, bearing in mind most

:00:40. > :00:44.people are not political anoraks, like we are in the studios, and they

:00:45. > :00:48.don't spend time obsessing about these issues, they don't think about

:00:49. > :00:54.it all the time. But once it becomes accepted that we are a legit and

:00:55. > :00:58.choice, and as Ed Miliband said a few weeks ago, a mainstream party, I

:00:59. > :01:04.think all bets are off, actually, and now that we are in a four-party

:01:05. > :01:08.system, and on the ground UKIP is very often the third-party in a

:01:09. > :01:13.three party system, and very often the challenger, after all we have

:01:14. > :01:16.been the one up in every single Parliamentary by-election in the

:01:17. > :01:20.last two years, and I look at the by-election results up and down the

:01:21. > :01:24.country every single week in councils, and we are very often the

:01:25. > :01:28.challenger to the winner, if we haven't actually won the seat

:01:29. > :01:35.ourselves. Things are moving, the tectonic plates are moving. Emily,

:01:36. > :01:39.we have got a result from Trafford? Yes, somewhere the Tories aren't

:01:40. > :01:44.dead in the water. They'll be relieved to have hung on here in the

:01:45. > :01:48.north-west. You can see it's a big conurbation south of Manchester, the

:01:49. > :01:51.kind of place the Tories need to keep reminding themselves that they

:01:52. > :01:55.can do well in. This was somewhere that was on Labour's target list,

:01:56. > :02:00.just a 2% swing would have taken it out of Tory control and given it to

:02:01. > :02:04.them, but they have held on here. Look at what happened overnight. You

:02:05. > :02:07.can see the picture. Very little until fact, Labour is up slightly,

:02:08. > :02:12.the Liberal Democrats down 1, but that was enough anyway to give that,

:02:13. > :02:20.or keep that within Conservative control. One more I'll bring you.

:02:21. > :02:26.This is Preston. The give you a sense of the same part of the world,

:02:27. > :02:30.Lancashire, Labour on 32, Conservative 19, Liberal Democrats

:02:31. > :02:34.five and not much change but Labour hanging on there.

:02:35. > :02:38.Middle East of these are still one third aren't they, of the councils?

:02:39. > :02:44.Except where you see the London results. There are they are the odd

:02:45. > :02:48.pockets, but most are fought in thirds which means we get to the end

:02:49. > :02:51.of four years andth and get the entire cycle of what's happened

:02:52. > :02:56.since the general election. London is the place, 32 boroughs, where

:02:57. > :03:01.every single council has been up for election that,'s why you tend to see

:03:02. > :03:06.the biggest changes here. When you give those figures of the

:03:07. > :03:11.old council and the new, you are looking at one third of the figures?

:03:12. > :03:15.That's exactly right. So we are just putting up the gains or losses for

:03:16. > :03:18.the night, otherwise you could have an accumulation that didn't make

:03:19. > :03:21.sense because they wouldn't have been part of the election. I gather

:03:22. > :03:24.sense because they wouldn't have some broadcaster are putting them

:03:25. > :03:29.all up and it's causing chaos? I Goose gathers that too, but we

:03:30. > :03:43.couldn't possibly comment! No, we mustn't have any of that! -- I

:03:44. > :03:46.gather that too. Let us have a look at the weather.

:03:47. > :03:50.We have the European elections to come on Sunday. These are

:03:51. > :03:58.fascinating and we'll be back after the weather with Peter Gibbs, then a

:03:59. > :04:00.bit of news, then back here. Thank you very much. Winners and

:04:01. > :04:03.losers as far as the weather is concerned through the coming Bank

:04:04. > :04:09.Holiday weekend. There are going to be some showers

:04:10. > :04:13.around and some will be heavy. Sunshine in-between and when the sun

:04:14. > :04:17.does break through, it's late May so there'll be some warmth in it from

:04:18. > :04:20.time to time. As far as the rest of today is concerned, still some

:04:21. > :04:21.time to time. As far as the rest of heavy showers around, in parts of

:04:22. > :04:25.England and Wales particularly. Trying to pin across the Irish Sea

:04:26. > :04:30.into Northern Ireland. That will be a fairly slow process. If you are

:04:31. > :04:35.out and about through this even, this is 7 o'clock, isolated showers,

:04:36. > :04:40.but still one or two out and about. It's Wales and the West Midlands

:04:41. > :04:43.that you are more likely to catch a heavy downpour along with the west

:04:44. > :04:47.of England as well. The temperatures really do drop away. It's been a

:04:48. > :04:51.cool day in the northerly breeze in Northern Ireland that. Will continue

:04:52. > :04:57.this evening, as it will across Scotland, chilly across northern

:04:58. > :05:01.Scotland. Heavy showers in northern England

:05:02. > :05:05.and a few glimmers of brightness to start off the day across the eastern

:05:06. > :05:09.parts of England. East Anglia, into the south-east, you get sunshine,

:05:10. > :05:13.you will get a temperature of 16 or 17. That first area of heavy showers

:05:14. > :05:17.will spiral out across the Irish Sea, running into parts of Northern

:05:18. > :05:20.Ireland. More rain following from the near continent into the

:05:21. > :05:25.south-east later. Fairly cloudy night for most. Chilly in the north,

:05:26. > :05:27.down to seven or eight, double figure temperatures elsewhere.

:05:28. > :05:33.This is how we start the weekend with quite a bit of rain around

:05:34. > :05:38.across a good part of England and Wales. Takes its time to get up to

:05:39. > :05:41.for example Cumbria, but it will eventually get there. Scotland and

:05:42. > :05:46.Northern Ireland, a drier picture with a bit of brightness. In amongst

:05:47. > :05:49.the showers, you could get temperatures into the high teens.

:05:50. > :05:54.Same for Glasgow for the Big Weekend.

:05:55. > :06:00.A greater chance of catching a shower at the event on Sunday.

:06:01. > :06:04.Leaves much of England in a drier slot I think on Sunday. Heavier

:06:05. > :06:08.showers further north and it evens out for the Bank Holiday Monday

:06:09. > :06:11.itself. Sunny spells, chance of showers, temperatures mid teens or

:06:12. > :06:15.thereabouts across the north, more like the high teens or low 20s

:06:16. > :06:22.across some southern part, but again, the chance of catching one or

:06:23. > :06:25.two showers, if you miss those and get some sunshine, it would feel

:06:26. > :06:26.reasonably pleasant. You can find the five-day forecast on the

:06:27. > :06:45.website. We are going to be here on Sunday

:06:46. > :06:51.with the European election results which don't start coming in or can't

:06:52. > :06:56.be counted until Sunday evening when Italy finishes the Polls at 11

:06:57. > :07:01.o'clock Eastern European time, 10 o'clock in Britain. So we are on the

:07:02. > :07:04.air at 9, just for those who're following us closely and want to

:07:05. > :07:09.know about this, we are on the air at 9 on Sunday and at 10 we will

:07:10. > :07:13.start to get results. That's where our Bank Holiday will be spent, very

:07:14. > :07:18.nice it will be too! Welcome back to our election coverage.

:07:19. > :07:26.We've still got 20 councils to come in. We have had 141 declared

:07:27. > :07:33.declared of 161. We'll have 20 of those. We have pictured from Barnet.

:07:34. > :07:40.They have been counting all day. Labour hoping for this to be a gain

:07:41. > :07:44.for them. There was an unfortunate postponement in one ward because of

:07:45. > :07:48.the death of a councillor, so that meant a three-member ward didn't

:07:49. > :07:56.vote and that's held things up. So we are waiting for Barnet and we'll

:07:57. > :08:02.stick with that. Another 19 apoor from -- apart from that. Let's have

:08:03. > :08:06.the news. Here is Jane Hill. Thank you very much. Good afternoon.

:08:07. > :08:10.Our main story is that Nigel Farage will stand as a general election

:08:11. > :08:15.candidate next year. He confirmed that after his UKIP party made big

:08:16. > :08:20.gains in local polls across England. The Conservatives have been expected

:08:21. > :08:24.to lose seats and they did, and the Liberal Democrats had a difficult

:08:25. > :08:29.night. Labour saw a net gain of about 250 seats with almost all the

:08:30. > :08:34.results now in. Iain Watson looks at the story. This report contains

:08:35. > :08:39.flash photography. He promised a political earthquake

:08:40. > :08:44.and even though Nigel Farage's party hasn't won control of parties, UKIP

:08:45. > :08:46.did enough to send shock waves through the more established

:08:47. > :08:50.parties, causing upsets from Yorkshire to Essex, depriving the

:08:51. > :08:55.Conservatives of control in Basildon and Thurrock. Farage told the BBC

:08:56. > :08:59.he'd stand for Parliament next year, not here but probably in Kent. There

:09:00. > :09:02.are several seats in Essex that are absolutely winnable for us in a

:09:03. > :09:06.general election next year. I haven't decided what I'm going to

:09:07. > :09:10.do, but I will choose a seat, but it will be south of the river. Their

:09:11. > :09:13.performance provoked calls from Conservatives for a pact at the next

:09:14. > :09:17.general election, but the Prime Minister dismissed this.

:09:18. > :09:21.We are the Conservative Party, we don't do pacts and deals, we are

:09:22. > :09:26.fighting all out for an all out win at the next election. Last nights we

:09:27. > :09:31.lost some good councillors but our vote share was up from last year

:09:32. > :09:36.Labour gain more seats than any other party and performed well in

:09:37. > :09:40.areas where Conservatives were weak. Ed Miliband celebrated in Redbridge

:09:41. > :09:44.in the east of the city. The reason we won here was because of the deep

:09:45. > :09:51.discontent there is in the country and the deep desire for change. We

:09:52. > :09:56.also know that UKIP made gains in this election. For some people, that

:09:57. > :09:59.discontent with the country, that desire for change meant they turned

:10:00. > :10:03.to UKIP. Labour didn't do as well as expected

:10:04. > :10:06.in some parts of England. Their share of the vote only slightly up

:10:07. > :10:10.from the general election performance. The Conservatives

:10:11. > :10:15.suffered heavy losses, but had some consolation in seeing Labour off in

:10:16. > :10:17.Swindon and inflicted misery on their coalition partners, the

:10:18. > :10:22.Liberal Democrats, in Kingston. Nick Clegg said a bad set of results

:10:23. > :10:26.wouldn't lead to his resignation. It's never easy to see dedicated,

:10:27. > :10:32.hard-working Lib Dem councillors lose ground. Actually, I think in

:10:33. > :10:35.the areas where we have MP, where we have good organisation on the

:10:36. > :10:39.ground, where we can get our message across, we are doing well. Based on

:10:40. > :10:43.their performance in the council elections, UKIP are confident of

:10:44. > :10:47.doing well in the results of the European elections on Sunday night.

:10:48. > :10:50.If they send more tremors through the political establishment, the

:10:51. > :10:55.more traditional political parties will have to decide how to respond.

:10:56. > :10:59.So as Nige feel Raj pulled a pint in celebration, will his opponents

:11:00. > :11:05.launch a spirited attack? Or move closer to him on immigration and

:11:06. > :11:10.Europe? -- Nigel Farage. Fire crews are

:11:11. > :11:14.fighting to save the world famous Glasgow School of Art. The Remy

:11:15. > :11:19.Mackintosh building has been damaged. There are no reports of

:11:20. > :11:22.injuries but students' work is feared destroyed.

:11:23. > :11:28.It's home to Glasgow's School of Art and a Glasgow landmark. But this

:11:29. > :11:34.afternoon, fire engulfed large parts of the Charles Remy Makin for

:11:35. > :11:38.building in the city. The blaze broke out around lunch

:11:39. > :11:41.time in the basement and spread up throughout the building. Flames

:11:42. > :11:48.could be seen coming out of the top floor windows and through the roof.

:11:49. > :11:50.Fire Brigade search and rescue teams wearing breathing apparatus entered

:11:51. > :11:54.the building and led people to safety. The Fire Service said the

:11:55. > :11:58.building has been evacuated and there are no reports of anyone

:11:59. > :12:03.missing or injured. It's heartbreaking. It really is. We

:12:04. > :12:07.know the value of the stuff that's in the build building and we hear

:12:08. > :12:11.the library might have caught fire. It's not even the value, it's the

:12:12. > :12:15.life blood of the art school. When you are having a bad day yourself

:12:16. > :12:19.come out and look at that and think it will be OK, but seeing it on fire

:12:20. > :12:23.is horrible. This is a busy time for the college as student press pair

:12:24. > :12:27.for end of year assessments and exhibitions. Many students fear they

:12:28. > :12:32.have lost four years of work. It's one of the most famous buildings in

:12:33. > :12:37.the world bar none. It's exquisite. I think the most important thing

:12:38. > :12:40.that's happened today is, that you realise it's more than the building,

:12:41. > :12:47.it's the people in it who're amazing, everyone's turned up, the

:12:48. > :12:50.people that make up the school, they have been unbelievable. Everybody's

:12:51. > :12:54.supporting each other because there is a lot of upset people. The

:12:55. > :13:00.building was designed by Mackintosh and completed in 1909 and is

:13:01. > :13:05.regarded as a unique example of Art Nouveau architecture and is renowned

:13:06. > :13:09.worldwide. The former broadcaster, Stuart Hall,

:13:10. > :13:13.has been sentenced to 30 months in prison for indecently assaulting an

:13:14. > :13:18.under age girl. He's already in prison for indecent assault. His new

:13:19. > :13:21.sentence will run consecutively. He was found guilty of one count of

:13:22. > :13:24.indecent assault last week and at was found guilty of one count of

:13:25. > :13:29.the start of the trial, he admitted another similar charge.

:13:30. > :13:32.The families of the four British sailors missing in the Atlantic have

:13:33. > :13:38.met at the Foreign Office. An RAF search team will continue looking

:13:39. > :13:41.for Andrew Bridge, James Male, Conservative Warren and Paul goes

:13:42. > :13:46.Lynn. They have not been heard from since the end of last week. The US

:13:47. > :13:52.coast Guard says the operation will end in the next ten hours -- Paul

:13:53. > :14:00.Goslin. That is the news. Back to David.

:14:01. > :14:04.Thanks, Jane. Let's just go back to the election results. We have 20 to

:14:05. > :14:08.come in. Most are London councils that haven't yet come in. But I want

:14:09. > :14:17.to ask the three of you before we have a look at the standing of the

:14:18. > :14:21.second party in the PNS, just a more general question - do you think this

:14:22. > :14:28.day will go down in political history as the day that England

:14:29. > :14:34.became a four-party political system? Like Scotland did when the

:14:35. > :14:38.SNP rose? Mind you, the Tories then pretty well disappeared. But anyway,

:14:39. > :14:44.are we at a turning point in politics or is this UKIP attack or

:14:45. > :14:51.threat something that you think you can see off, your three parties can

:14:52. > :14:53.see off? I think UKIP presents an extestential threat to the Liberal

:14:54. > :14:59.Democrats who could say we are not Labour, we are not Conservative, we

:15:00. > :15:02.are, you know, none of the above. I'm not sure about your question

:15:03. > :15:06.about is it a four-party country, I think it may be still a three-party

:15:07. > :15:10.country but I think it's one where the Liberal Democrat share of the

:15:11. > :15:14.vote councils and councillors and MPs are vastly reduced.

:15:15. > :15:23.Malcolm? I think that's what Labour wishes. The fact is that we have

:15:24. > :15:26.seen off UKIP and Eastleigh for example where Nigel Farage talked

:15:27. > :15:29.about being a candidate there. Didn't gain a single seat, the

:15:30. > :15:34.Liberal Democrats increased their majority and in that situation

:15:35. > :15:38.that's unrealistic. In answer to your question, a lot depends on

:15:39. > :15:43.whether UKIP turns itself into a proper political party. It's a party

:15:44. > :15:50.of protest, but the councillor, what are they going to do, what is their

:15:51. > :15:53.policy on housing, council tax, libraries, wlaefr it may be? They

:15:54. > :15:58.have been slung out today, yesterday, so when people have seen

:15:59. > :16:03.them, they haven't necessarily liked them - whatever it may be. To answer

:16:04. > :16:06.Mary's question, the Liberal Democrats aren't going away and the

:16:07. > :16:11.results show it. We have had a bad night and I feel sorry for the

:16:12. > :16:14.councils who've lost their seats, many who've worked hard for years.

:16:15. > :16:17.The time will come, possibly when we have another Labour Government when

:16:18. > :16:24.they will find the Liberal Democrats can pick up seats from Labour.

:16:25. > :16:30.The coalition that lost them their seats, in effect. The coalition has

:16:31. > :16:35.had to take some unpopular decisions. The fact of coalition is

:16:36. > :16:39.unpopular with many Liberal Democrats. The vast majority of

:16:40. > :16:43.Liberal Democrats supported, but difficult decisions at national

:16:44. > :16:48.level have an impact locally, and that is difficult for people who

:16:49. > :16:51.have done a great job locally. I feel for those people, that is very

:16:52. > :16:56.hard indeed, because they have worked extremely hard. We don't hear

:16:57. > :17:00.much praise for Nick Clegg from Liberal Democrats on the ground, he

:17:01. > :17:04.doesn't seem to be getting huge approval ratings? I would argue that

:17:05. > :17:08.Nick Clegg has led this with extraordinary resilience. It is

:17:09. > :17:11.really difficult, and he has taken the hit for difficult decisions, but

:17:12. > :17:16.I think he deserves the credit for the fact that we are where we are

:17:17. > :17:19.both in terms of the coalition and the economy, and the particular

:17:20. > :17:24.parts of the governance, tax, pensions, all the things I have

:17:25. > :17:29.mentioned, schools, where we have shaped the agenda. -- the

:17:30. > :17:32.government. I think the Liberal Democrats will recognise that Nick

:17:33. > :17:35.Clegg and his ministerial colleagues have made that difference, and when

:17:36. > :17:40.the chips are down next year, it may be that the Liberal Democrats get

:17:41. > :17:45.the rewards that I think that engagement deserves. Sajid Javid,

:17:46. > :17:49.has the mould been broken by UKIP? It has been said before, there have

:17:50. > :17:52.been European elections in the past where the Greens did particularly

:17:53. > :17:59.well, elections where the SDP Alliance did well. That is not to

:18:00. > :18:02.dismiss what has happened today at all in the slightest, because I

:18:03. > :18:07.think it is very important, what has happened, because we as politicians

:18:08. > :18:11.need to take account of why people have voted this way, while UKIP has

:18:12. > :18:16.gathered this enormous number of votes. And we need to react to that

:18:17. > :18:19.and make sure we can translate that frustration and anger that people

:18:20. > :18:24.feel into policies, but I hope that as we do, and it becomes answers to

:18:25. > :18:31.the challenges, hopefully we will pick up more votes and come through

:18:32. > :18:35.in the general election and answer some of those challenges. We were

:18:36. > :18:40.talking about Trafford earlier, and that is, I think, a very important

:18:41. > :18:44.result. I was there last week myself, campaigning with the Tory

:18:45. > :18:49.leader, and I am pleased to see that the Tories have held on in Trafford,

:18:50. > :18:54.but that was a very important target seat for Labour. If I remember

:18:55. > :18:59.correctly, it required just a 2% swing for labour to take control,

:19:00. > :19:02.and they failed to achieve that. They have similar failures in

:19:03. > :19:07.Peterborough, Gloucester, Worcester, so this is not a good night for any

:19:08. > :19:11.of the mainstream parties, but certainly not a good night for

:19:12. > :19:19.Labour. When you look at the projected vote, 31% if you project

:19:20. > :19:24.that out to a general election, 31% share of the vote... Michael Foot,

:19:25. > :19:29.just before the general election, achieved 29%, about 2% more than

:19:30. > :19:32.Michael Foot. Ed Miliband can boast he's doing slightly better than

:19:33. > :19:38.Michael Foot, but it does not sound like a party that is poised to take

:19:39. > :19:43.government. And you are on 29%, like Michael Foot, and look what happened

:19:44. > :19:48.to him! The important point is that we have had to make difficult

:19:49. > :19:52.decisions, we inherited the biggest budget deficit in the post-war

:19:53. > :19:57.period, and that required making difficult decisions, and the economy

:19:58. > :20:00.has started to recover, and over time people will see we have a

:20:01. > :20:03.long-term plan to deal with the problems of this country, that we

:20:04. > :20:13.will be able to show it in a general election result. Jeremy, can we look

:20:14. > :20:19.in -- at people in second place at this point? We have extrapolated all

:20:20. > :20:22.sorts of things, Jeremy has! It is talking directly into this graph

:20:23. > :20:29.which is all about whether Labour can come back and win the general

:20:30. > :20:34.election with only a two point lead. These are the councils, very nearly

:20:35. > :20:41.done, 161 in total. For all the talk of UKIP, where is the purple? It is

:20:42. > :20:45.very hard for them to convert their share into purple, you will not see

:20:46. > :20:49.any on the map. The most they have done is in Essex, where they have

:20:50. > :20:53.turned councils to no overall control. It is not a happy system

:20:54. > :20:57.for them as far as getting actual control of councils is concerned.

:20:58. > :21:01.But let me show you, we will go back into the House of Commons, our

:21:02. > :21:06.virtual House of Commons, to show you this graph. This is about

:21:07. > :21:15.parties one year out from election, and can they recover from the

:21:16. > :21:20.position they are in? We reckon that Labour are on 31 in the projected

:21:21. > :21:22.national share, Conservatives on 29. Low let's see what history tells us

:21:23. > :21:36.going back to the year 2000. In 2000, the Conservatives were

:21:37. > :21:41.38%, 29 for Labour, so 8% ahead, thinking they would win in 2001

:21:42. > :21:49.under William Hague. Did they? No, they did not. 8% was not enough.

:21:50. > :21:57.2004, and even better lead, 12% ahead now. 38-26. They were thinking

:21:58. > :22:03.they were set back in 2005, again Labour won re-election with Tony

:22:04. > :22:09.Blair. Then we come to 2009, a very handy, much bigger lead for the

:22:10. > :22:14.Conservatives of, what is that? 15% from the Conservatives to Labour,

:22:15. > :22:18.and in 2010 they win, just. They do not win an outright majority, but

:22:19. > :22:22.they come first in the election and beat Labour. So the graph tends to

:22:23. > :22:25.suggest you need a good 15% to win the general election that follows if

:22:26. > :22:31.you are just one year out from it. How much have Labour got? 2%, that

:22:32. > :22:36.is all, so these are the figures. From this point of view, from this

:22:37. > :22:41.graph's point of view, it looks bad for Labour. Nobody has made 2% as a

:22:42. > :22:47.lead into a majority at a general election. A couple of riders, though

:22:48. > :22:52.- number one, boundary changes, boundaries, the system we have got

:22:53. > :22:56.now favours Labour, the way that boundaries are spread, for all kinds

:22:57. > :22:59.of complicated reasons means that the boffins say their vote works

:23:00. > :23:04.more efficiently for them. It is possible they could transfer that

:23:05. > :23:09.into victory. And also, as the UKIP factor, because these figures have

:23:10. > :23:14.the involvement of UKIP, four parties or three, we do not know

:23:15. > :23:21.whether you may have changed the rules for the whole sequence, and

:23:22. > :23:24.maybe because the biggest loser in a world where UKIP have entered with

:23:25. > :23:28.the kind of momentum they have got seems to be the Conservatives, maybe

:23:29. > :23:32.that will play a Labour's favour. Do not write them off, but 2%

:23:33. > :23:41.historically is not enough. David. Isn't it true that there is a 7% gap

:23:42. > :23:45.between what Labour and the Tories need to get? If the Tories are to

:23:46. > :23:52.win a majority, they have to get 7% more than Labour overall. Absolutely

:23:53. > :23:59.right. 31 and 29 is a shoo-in for Labour! Well, we went back to 2000,

:24:00. > :24:04.looking at it in reverse. You may well be right, and of course there

:24:05. > :24:10.are reasons to do with the way the Conservative vote stacks up in their

:24:11. > :24:15.safe seats, they win seats by a long way, Labour just squeeze victories

:24:16. > :24:19.in urban seats. That is the big get out for Labour, the boundaries, and

:24:20. > :24:21.the biggest moment in the last parliament was when the

:24:22. > :24:25.Conservatives did not manage, because the Lib Dems objected, to

:24:26. > :24:28.get their big vote on the boundaries, and that has left them

:24:29. > :24:33.in an awkward position. But even so, to present is not very much

:24:34. > :24:42.going into a general election. I don't know, do you think? -- 2%. I

:24:43. > :24:45.think it is what Labour people know, they have not established a big

:24:46. > :24:51.enough lead. We have an opinion poll suggesting the Tories are overtaking

:24:52. > :24:55.Labour, people trust George Osborne more than Ed Balls on the economy,

:24:56. > :24:58.and there has to be a nervousness that, one year out, they do not have

:24:59. > :25:03.the grip on the electorate which you want if you are to be poised to go

:25:04. > :25:06.into Downing Street. I mean, they will say that this projected

:25:07. > :25:10.national share can be discarded because it is a ffour-party system,

:25:11. > :25:15.and it will be hard for them to get into the high 30s. It is also true

:25:16. > :25:19.that the system works to their advantage, but I will come back to

:25:20. > :25:29.this core point that one year out, they need to have oomph, and there

:25:30. > :25:34.is nothing today that makes you think, yes, this is a party poised

:25:35. > :25:39.to come into government. I think it comes down to Ed Miliband, I think

:25:40. > :25:44.people are unconvinced by him, and that is dragging Labour back. Why

:25:45. > :25:51.are you still talking as if it was a two party system? This whole

:25:52. > :26:00.election raises the idea of a four party system. Plugging some of the

:26:01. > :26:07.results out of the air, it tells us that you have got four parties,

:26:08. > :26:10.maybe one or two where UKIP can build, but the reality is that the

:26:11. > :26:14.chances of anyone winning an outright majority are getting

:26:15. > :26:22.slimmer every year. In terms of being the largest party, you are

:26:23. > :26:27.quite right. So where is your oomph? We have had 7 million items of

:26:28. > :26:30.contact, either direct mail, telephone contact, doorstep contact

:26:31. > :26:35.with voters. We have an army of people on the ground, 2000 new

:26:36. > :26:38.councillors, tens of thousands of members who have joined since Ed

:26:39. > :26:43.Miliband has been leader, and we talked about the UKIP effect -

:26:44. > :26:48.Malcolm said that the question is, do they become a proper political

:26:49. > :26:53.party? I think one of their appeals they are an insurgent party, and we

:26:54. > :26:56.will see how they get on in councils, where they are now

:26:57. > :27:00.serving, we will see how Nigel Farage gets on. It depends whether

:27:01. > :27:03.their appeal lasts. People are sophisticated, they can make the

:27:04. > :27:07.difference between the European election, where they might be

:27:08. > :27:10.thinking about certain issues, and a general election. People on the

:27:11. > :27:14.doorstep yesterday in Wakefield were telling me, yes, we would be voting

:27:15. > :27:23.for UKIP but not next year, we don't want to pay to see our GP, we don't

:27:24. > :27:25.want a tax increase, and looking carefully at the policies that UKIP

:27:26. > :27:29.are espousing, they will not be voted in at a general election. Our

:27:30. > :27:36.political editor in the Northwest can tell us about the Trafford

:27:37. > :27:39.story. Yeah, that is right, David. I mean, what has happened here is that

:27:40. > :27:44.the council has not changed hands at all, but that is significant,

:27:45. > :27:48.because this was a key target for Labour, not in the sense that they

:27:49. > :27:52.were expecting to take control, but they wanted to knock the Tories out

:27:53. > :27:58.and move Trafford into no overall control. For the Tories, this is a

:27:59. > :28:00.big deal - this is a flagship Metropolitan Council for the

:28:01. > :28:04.Conservatives, the only one they have got in the north-west of

:28:05. > :28:09.England, one of only two in the country. They were desperate to hold

:28:10. > :28:14.onto it. It did not look as if they were going to be able to, only

:28:15. > :28:17.needed to lose two seats and they would have lost control of the

:28:18. > :28:21.council, but they have managed to fend off that assault by Labour, who

:28:22. > :28:25.took just one seat. The Conservatives compensated by taking

:28:26. > :28:29.one from the Liberal Democrats. Real cheering, real relief not just for

:28:30. > :28:34.the Conservatives in Trafford, this is one of those results they will be

:28:35. > :28:40.cheering across the country. Was there any UKIP presence in Trafford?

:28:41. > :28:44.It is interesting, because the Conservatives were worried about the

:28:45. > :28:49.UKIP, they felt that they were putting pressure on them in marginal

:28:50. > :28:55.wards, where they had to fend off Labour. Now, clearly, that has not

:28:56. > :28:59.come to pass. There will have been a UKIP presence, but clearly not

:29:00. > :29:05.enough to actually affect the result. Elsewhere in the north-west,

:29:06. > :29:07.UKIP have made some breakthroughs, breakthroughs frankly just on the

:29:08. > :29:13.fact that they have been collected at all, because up to now we haven't

:29:14. > :29:17.had any UKIP councillors directly elected. The only one we have had is

:29:18. > :29:20.someone who had been elected as a Conservative and had moved party.

:29:21. > :29:27.But there have been a few, probably only half a dozen, in various places

:29:28. > :29:31.like Hyndburn, Oldham, so a few elected, but certainly not a ground

:29:32. > :29:34.swell, although there are certain parts of the north-west where they

:29:35. > :29:40.have done pretty well in terms of share of the vote. One of the point,

:29:41. > :29:45.if I may quickly make this, David, is that back in 2011I remember

:29:46. > :29:49.talking to you about the collapse of the Liberal Democrats in London, a

:29:50. > :29:54.count on which they had previously won, and today we come to the end of

:29:55. > :29:57.that cycle. We have seen them defending six seats in Liverpool,

:29:58. > :30:02.and unexpectedly they lost all of them. They thought they would hold

:30:03. > :30:07.onto at least one. In Manchester, where they were defending nine,

:30:08. > :30:11.every one of those gone as well. The Liberal Democrats are extinct and

:30:12. > :30:14.Manchester City Council, now completely dominated by Labour, so a

:30:15. > :30:24.significant development in that sense. Trafford is very interesting

:30:25. > :30:27.for the Conservatives? Absolutely it is. If you looked at all the

:30:28. > :30:32.councils in the North West, this is the one the Tories wanted to hold on

:30:33. > :30:36.to. There are only two in the North West which were vulnerable I think

:30:37. > :30:40.to Labour as far as the Conservatives went. They only

:30:41. > :30:46.controlled two in terms of what was up for election today. One was West

:30:47. > :30:51.Lancashire and Labour successfully took that from the Conservatives, so

:30:52. > :30:57.a blow for them there, but this one, because of its status as being part

:30:58. > :30:59.of Greater Manchester, being a Metropolitan Council, really