Europe - Part 1

:00:08. > :00:12.Results of the European elections have a profound affect both on their

:00:13. > :00:18.politics here and her relationship with Europe. We'll come to a rock

:00:19. > :00:24.election Centre on what promises to be a dramatic night. `` Welcome to

:00:25. > :00:44.our election centre. It has been five years since the

:00:45. > :00:53.last European elections and the date deal has happened. `` and a great

:00:54. > :00:57.deal. We have seen some members of the European Union teeter on

:00:58. > :01:04.financial collapse. And we have seen a doing disaffection across the

:01:05. > :01:10.continent. Tonight, the ballot papers are being counted. Some

:01:11. > :01:20.countries have already announced the results. By British law, we are not

:01:21. > :01:29.allowed to announce the exit poll, if we do recall to jail for six

:01:30. > :01:33.months... `` we go to jail. So let's take a look at what is happening.

:01:34. > :01:41.How it will shape the domestic politics. We have a general election

:01:42. > :01:46.11 months only. These European elections will affect them. Labour

:01:47. > :01:53.made some games but they missed out on some of the key targets. Ed

:01:54. > :02:01.Miliband came under attack. He admitted he had plenty more to do.

:02:02. > :02:10.The Conservatives saw some councils slip into the hands of UKIP. David

:02:11. > :02:17.Cameron as police for more bad news. `` is braced for more bad news. And

:02:18. > :02:23.the man who said he would say that Fox was in the Westminster henhouse.

:02:24. > :02:30.Nigel Farage. He predicted that people when outrage tonight, that

:02:31. > :02:38.you will come top of the vote. `` UKIP.

:02:39. > :02:50.We have people at the results are close the country. `` across. We are

:02:51. > :02:56.also joined by experts here. We can reveal what the tale was about the

:02:57. > :02:59.mood in Europe. We are joined by our political editor, looking at how the

:03:00. > :03:08.results will affect the general election. Alongside him, a team of

:03:09. > :03:18.experts. They will have their own analysis. And Emily is here with the

:03:19. > :03:25.giant touch`screen. MEPs are elected by region and we will bring you all

:03:26. > :03:33.the results as they come in. We will also be looked at how the map, or

:03:34. > :03:46.stop. `` colours up. Jeremy Vine also here. Watching the picture as

:03:47. > :03:59.it emerges across the continent. Don't overplay it! This is the map.

:04:00. > :04:04.500 million people are voting in the biggest exercise of democracy after

:04:05. > :04:09.the Indian elections. They want to send people into this building, the

:04:10. > :04:14.European Parliament. This is the largest group in light blue. We will

:04:15. > :04:24.wait to see if it remains the largest. Can UKIP not the

:04:25. > :04:33.Conservatives out of fast please? `` first place. We are not allowed to

:04:34. > :04:40.say anything until ten o'clock, but the Poles have been all the

:04:41. > :04:51.political parties. Back it is the perfect solution. There is no exit

:04:52. > :04:55.poll here. The key test tonight is whether what Nigel Farage

:04:56. > :05:01.predicted, and what the likes of David Cameron have been preparing

:05:02. > :05:12.for, will it happen. We'll UKIP top the poll? If they do not, has the

:05:13. > :05:21.edge, of? The bubble may not have lost but some there may be seeping

:05:22. > :05:23.out. `` some air. Do the local elections will be developed in

:05:24. > :05:31.review about anything, really will come tonight? We have always assumed

:05:32. > :05:37.when it comes to European elections that that is where most people are

:05:38. > :05:46.willing to lend the report. `` their vote. Some people think it is a

:05:47. > :05:53.relevant to the boat for. It is also the contest for fourth and fifth.

:05:54. > :06:02.You get the likes of UKIP, the Conservatives, the Greens, that this

:06:03. > :06:13.possible. Those possessions will have a massive impact on who

:06:14. > :06:22.reflects us. We have seen everybody saying that some people should go.

:06:23. > :06:28.How disconcerted are the three main political parties by what UKIP

:06:29. > :06:34.achieved? In one sense, they saw it coming. They have a little bit of

:06:35. > :06:42.notice about these elections five years ago when UKIP goodwill. `` did

:06:43. > :06:52.well. But the reality of it happening, the spread of support, it

:06:53. > :07:02.has shocked people. Some people say that we wrote the narrative too

:07:03. > :07:07.early. Labour eventually started to perform. Some in the Labour Party

:07:08. > :07:14.say that you are not being fair. The legal story was the better story. ``

:07:15. > :07:19.Labour story. The good news for them came later. But you saw the reaction

:07:20. > :07:25.in the assault course. Talking about immigration. Consider whether the

:07:26. > :07:33.message on Europe was getting across. Waits see if we can go out

:07:34. > :07:43.there and to other parts of the country. We will cost to Paris. What

:07:44. > :07:51.can you tell us without going to duel about what has happened in

:07:52. > :08:01.Paris? `` jail. They have been digestive and the exit polls for

:08:02. > :08:06.about an hour. `` digesting. The Prime Minister says there has been a

:08:07. > :08:14.political earthquake. He says it is a lesson that should go out to all

:08:15. > :08:24.politicians. Wielder as a loser there is obviously a winner. All

:08:25. > :08:30.eyes are on the National front. She says, the leader that there is the

:08:31. > :08:34.freedom march and she wants to restore the integrity of the

:08:35. > :08:43.country. She said that the people want the politics here in France.

:08:44. > :08:45.She also called for the disillusion of the national assembly. She is not

:08:46. > :08:52.going to get it because we are two years into a five`year term, but

:08:53. > :08:58.this party only got 6% of the vote in 2009 and 50 have met the target

:08:59. > :09:09.of 20 seats that the possible 74, we will see a very different make`up.

:09:10. > :09:29.Thank you. It sounds as if the National front are celebrating

:09:30. > :09:41.tonight. Now to Athens. We are having some sound problems. Wits go

:09:42. > :09:48.to Germany. `` Let's go. Do you have any indication about how things have

:09:49. > :09:55.gone in Germany? We are not going to go to jail over this thing. But a

:09:56. > :10:03.usual sceptic party will probably get six or seven seats. `` Euro

:10:04. > :10:14.sceptic. But no political earthquake. An expectation of a rise

:10:15. > :10:20.in this state tickle party, scepticism means different things

:10:21. > :10:27.heal than it does in Britain. The expectation is that they will have

:10:28. > :10:31.seats in that parliament. Also, some debate because the figures are not

:10:32. > :10:43.clear enough about the extreme right party. What they will get one seat.

:10:44. > :10:56.`` Whether they. No great political earthquake but a significant rise, a

:10:57. > :11:02.small rise in Udall scepticism. `` Euro scepticism. I want as few

:11:03. > :11:09.simple question about the European Parliament. How important is it for

:11:10. > :11:17.over a future that we bought in these elections? It is increasingly

:11:18. > :11:26.important. Together with the council, the government decides on

:11:27. > :11:33.most of the laws. 90% of the laws. It really matters in that sense. In

:11:34. > :11:39.terms of the parties that want renegotiation, which the

:11:40. > :11:50.Conservatives say they would, they make up we have tonight will affect

:11:51. > :11:55.how good an ear they have? The pre`medically is where that is going

:11:56. > :11:59.to happen is the European Council. That is the fast point for David

:12:00. > :12:06.Cameron. But that does not mean that he does not cure. `` care. He will

:12:07. > :12:15.want the centre`right that is strong. He may not want the sceptic

:12:16. > :12:25.parties to do well, but it is maybe not bad for him that they do well in

:12:26. > :12:32.other countries. If the parliament is so important, why do so

:12:33. > :12:39.relatively few people thought? `` vote? We might think this is an

:12:40. > :12:43.important night but do people really understand what the European

:12:44. > :12:52.Parliament as? Not really. We know that from countless RVs. This has

:12:53. > :13:00.been a lack of government that this Parliament is collecting. ``

:13:01. > :13:04.electing. It has not been the case. They are trying to change things by

:13:05. > :13:06.putting forward these top candidates and saying this is the next

:13:07. > :13:22.president of the European Commission. It does not wash. They

:13:23. > :13:27.haven't noticed in some countries. We are waiting for the results. We

:13:28. > :13:35.can start giving them at ten o'clock. With sticky wood at how

:13:36. > :13:49.these elections are fought there. `` Let's take a look.

:13:50. > :13:58.Here is 2009. This is blue. It reflects how badly Labour were

:13:59. > :14:06.doing. 12 regions. 11 regions elect by counting the votes... Then

:14:07. > :14:12.putting a mix of candidates in. If you look at the last result, 2009,

:14:13. > :14:21.the one Scottish region is taken by the Scottish National Party. They

:14:22. > :14:25.came fast. `` first. The rest of the country went to the Conservatives,

:14:26. > :14:33.apart from best bet in the North. As you were asked in me to show who was

:14:34. > :14:44.forced on each council earlier it would be different. Some Labour in

:14:45. > :14:53.Scotland. Industrial North. In these organ concentrations, it can go

:14:54. > :15:06.read. `` urban. `` red. But this is the one part of the country were

:15:07. > :15:15.UKIP team fast. They were first. We will wait to see how much purple

:15:16. > :15:28.this time. Here are the last result. The Conservatives were in first

:15:29. > :15:44.place. 25 in need these. `` 25 MEPs. UKIP 11. Greens, two. Others on

:15:45. > :15:53.eight. Here's the percentage share. A commanding lead for Conservatives.

:15:54. > :16:04.We borrowed were in stock place with 15%. The articles, 20%. That was the

:16:05. > :16:07.result last time in 2009. Now we wait to see whether the

:16:08. > :16:16.Conservatives go second author, who comes fast. If you are watching this

:16:17. > :16:18.with a computer or you have a smartphone, you can follow the

:16:19. > :16:26.results when they come through online. And you can also read, at

:16:27. > :16:29.your leisure, a full explanation of the proportional system used here in

:16:30. > :16:35.Britain to elect these MEPs. Assist in velvet `` a system invented

:16:36. > :16:42.towards the end of the 19th century by a Belgian mathematician. And you

:16:43. > :16:51.can follow it on social media, and they are probably saying a lot

:16:52. > :16:56.already. Let's join Andrew Sinclair in the BBC East in John Spode where

:16:57. > :17:03.UKIP did very well at the local elections on Thursday `` in

:17:04. > :17:10.Chelmsford. What is your expectation of what will happen in East Anglia?

:17:11. > :17:14.Do you expect UKIP to soar away? The East of England has always been seen

:17:15. > :17:22.as a Eurosceptic region. Westminster politics and local politics, and

:17:23. > :17:25.then we saw UKIP moving in the last few years. In the last European

:17:26. > :17:30.elections, five years ago, the Conservatives were topped three

:17:31. > :17:33.seats. Sorry comic they were topped with three seats, UKIP had two

:17:34. > :17:40.seats, and then the Liberal Democrats and Labour got one seat

:17:41. > :17:43.each. After the big UKIP gains on Thursday, UKIP are expecting to at

:17:44. > :17:48.least get one more seat here this time round. Labour went into the

:17:49. > :17:52.campaign a month or so ago talking about getting a second seat this

:17:53. > :17:57.time. I think the expectations have diminished over the last week or so.

:17:58. > :18:02.The Green party are worth watching. They came close to picking up a

:18:03. > :18:06.seven seat last time around and they have a strong showing in Suffolk and

:18:07. > :18:12.Norfolk and might just pull it off. But the feeling tonight is that the

:18:13. > :18:14.main tussle here will be between the Conservatives and UKIP and it will

:18:15. > :18:22.be interesting to see who comes out top. It looks rather silent and

:18:23. > :18:26.everything abandoned. Have they finished counting and what time did

:18:27. > :18:30.it begin? They started counting at four o'clock and were finished just

:18:31. > :18:34.after six. I'm told it's a similar picture in all of the other counting

:18:35. > :18:41.centres across the East of England. Provided there were no hitches, we

:18:42. > :18:43.hope is that come 10pm, all of the regional centres will send in their

:18:44. > :18:48.results and we could get a result very soon after that. The leisure

:18:49. > :18:55.centre you are at is the centre point for all of the Eastern region.

:18:56. > :18:58.Everyone's local authority sends the votes into there and then they are

:18:59. > :19:05.aggregated and then they allocate them. They won't do that until ten?

:19:06. > :19:09.Yes, they can the Essex result here this afternoon and other places

:19:10. > :19:14.around the region have been counting their result will stop by law, they

:19:15. > :19:22.cannot send in projections until just before 10pm. At 10pm, the

:19:23. > :19:27.returning officer will want to contest this. If everybody is happy

:19:28. > :19:41.at 10pm, we could get a result quite soon after. Brian Taylor is in

:19:42. > :19:48.Scotland. Good evening. What is the likely effect of what happened on

:19:49. > :19:55.Thursday in the local election, that massive victory for UKIP, well, not

:19:56. > :19:58.massive, but the sensational bridgehead of UKIP, what likely

:19:59. > :20:01.effect will that have on Scotland? There have been talk about whether

:20:02. > :20:07.they will win a seat in Scotland or not `` there has been. We are

:20:08. > :20:11.electing six members of the European Parliament from Scotland. The

:20:12. > :20:17.turnout looks at about six points up from last time. Currently about 34%.

:20:18. > :20:21.But it is up. In terms of the UKIP effect on the question asked in

:20:22. > :20:31.Scotland is with regard to the referendum on independence. Stand`by

:20:32. > :20:35.the SNP diagnosing that the body politic in Scotland is in a

:20:36. > :20:38.different condition to the body politic south of the border and

:20:39. > :20:43.prescribing, guess what, independence. But if UKIP do take a

:20:44. > :20:49.seat, perhaps the six Scottish seat in Edinburgh, then stand by for UKIP

:20:50. > :21:04.saying that it proves they're not just an English party. Maybe they

:21:05. > :21:11.would do it through clenched teeth. It isn't so much out of line with

:21:12. > :21:14.the rest of the UK and the UK claim. You have no local elections in

:21:15. > :21:30.Scotland on Thursday, only the European elections. Is it down from

:21:31. > :21:34.five years ago? It is up, and the turnout was 27, and now it looks at

:21:35. > :21:45.about 34. A wonderful advert for democracy with only a third of

:21:46. > :21:47.people turning up. It shows politics in Scotland is rather feeble Ryle

:21:48. > :21:52.because of the pending referendum that is washing through into a

:21:53. > :21:58.greater interest into the European elections. I'm right in thinking we

:21:59. > :22:03.won't have result from Scotland this evening? We do not get a formal

:22:04. > :22:06.result. We will have indications. 31 out of 32 local authorities will be

:22:07. > :22:13.declared in this room behind me tonight. That is from ten o'clock

:22:14. > :22:17.onwards. The 32nd is in the Western Isles, and they do not count on a

:22:18. > :22:21.Sunday because of the religious beliefs of many in the community,

:22:22. > :22:24.which means the absolute formal, final result will not be declared

:22:25. > :22:28.until high noon tomorrow in Edinburgh but we should get a strong

:22:29. > :22:33.indication given that we will have virtually every council and the

:22:34. > :22:36.Western Isles electorate is small. Will you be able to give us the

:22:37. > :22:42.indication, or is it secret until you get in? We will have a pretty

:22:43. > :22:49.good point at night. There is no law against that. That is one freedom

:22:50. > :22:54.retain. Brian, thank you very much. Emily? I want to remind people that

:22:55. > :22:58.this is a broadly proportional system on a different to the local

:22:59. > :23:07.elections. They have 73 MEPs, and each of the regions are allocated a

:23:08. > :23:13.specific number. If I show you a result from last time round, the

:23:14. > :23:19.Southeast region, then the Conservatives got four, then UKIP

:23:20. > :23:23.and the Lib Dems, `` four. A dreadful night for Labour back in

:23:24. > :23:28.2009, one of their worst electoral nights ever. If I show you the map,

:23:29. > :23:36.it is how the map colours up according to the highest share of

:23:37. > :23:41.the vote. Example, you can see a wash of blue, just tiny little

:23:42. > :23:45.pockets brightening for the Green party. Slough is the only bit where

:23:46. > :23:49.the Labour Party topped the poll. What will happen to night? We might

:23:50. > :23:56.see resurging red, or will it turn UKIP purple? Brian Taylor was just

:23:57. > :23:59.talking about Scotland, and I can show you what happened last time

:24:00. > :24:06.round. The SNP at the top of the board but Labour also with two MEPs.

:24:07. > :24:11.This battle for first place will be very closely watched for any signal

:24:12. > :24:16.of what direction Scotland might be going in and of the referendum. This

:24:17. > :24:22.is the map, showing you the highest share of the vote. A lot of it is

:24:23. > :24:32.SNP yellow. These conurbations here, what will happen here? Will we

:24:33. > :24:36.see UKIP getting a result? Will one of the columns turn purple? It's not

:24:37. > :24:39.impossible. Nigel Farage has his sights on a seat, but the battle for

:24:40. > :24:43.first place will probably be the thing we cannot take our eyes off.

:24:44. > :24:49.We will be back with Emily right through the night. We will be

:24:50. > :24:54.looking at the British regions and countries. The last time the

:24:55. > :24:59.European elections were fought were 2009, so if seats change hands to

:25:00. > :25:04.night, or one party takes votes from another and we talk about a change

:25:05. > :25:11.in the share, we are measuring it against elections five years ago and

:25:12. > :25:15.not the general election in 2010. It was a very different time, and here

:25:16. > :25:19.is a reminder of what life was like in 2009 in British politics, the

:25:20. > :25:23.year in which Gordon Brown's Labour Party was at its lowest ebb and MPs

:25:24. > :25:34.of all parties were opening newspapers expecting to read about

:25:35. > :25:40.their expenses. Are very happy New Year, 2009 excavation mark the UK is

:25:41. > :25:44.in recession for the first time since 1991. Unemployment has risen

:25:45. > :25:48.above 2 million. This government has announced the biggest rise on the

:25:49. > :25:53.dog uses business `` records began. Businesses must have access to

:25:54. > :25:55.credit. The interest rate has been cut again and stands at an all`time

:25:56. > :26:11.low of 0.5%. There are lots of people suffering

:26:12. > :26:16.through lack of money at the moment, so why should MPs get away with it?

:26:17. > :26:21.These days I really `` rarely meet anyone who wants to be an MP when

:26:22. > :26:23.they grow up. There are things he has done recently to make him feel

:26:24. > :26:30.ashamed to be a Lambert `` Labour member of Parliament. This morning

:26:31. > :26:33.the Communities Secretary resigned from the cabinet following the

:26:34. > :26:36.announcement yesterday that the children's minister is standing

:26:37. > :26:39.down, the minister that the Cabinet Office is leaving and the Home

:26:40. > :26:42.Secretary is resigning. Why doesn't the Prime Minister accept that his

:26:43. > :26:48.ability to command his cabinet has simply disappeared? James Purnell,

:26:49. > :26:49.the Work and Pensions Secretary, is resigning from the government in

:26:50. > :27:06.order to force a leadership ballot. And this time we have come second

:27:07. > :27:11.nationally, so we are pleased. Perfectly clear that the Labour

:27:12. > :27:18.Party have come third behind UKIP. Nicholas John Griffin from the

:27:19. > :27:20.British National party. There are two BNP MEPs elected. All of the

:27:21. > :27:29.other parties have been condemning this and blaming themselves.

:27:30. > :27:40.Vernon Bogdanor, another professor, and a keen student of British

:27:41. > :27:44.politics, you remember 2009. What difference will it make, do you

:27:45. > :27:50.think, to the vote on Europe five years later? We have been talking a

:27:51. > :27:53.lot about UKIP, but the question is whether the Labour Party can win

:27:54. > :27:58.these elections. If it doesn't, it will be the first time since 1984

:27:59. > :28:03.that the opposition of the day has not won the European elections. Neil

:28:04. > :28:08.Kinnock managed to win those elections in 1989 even though he

:28:09. > :28:11.could not win in 1992. So if UKIP defeats labour, that would be a

:28:12. > :28:15.particular problem for the opposition if they cannot defeat the

:28:16. > :28:20.government in, as it were, an off year. That is something we need to

:28:21. > :28:23.look at carefully. Are there special circumstances for the rise of UKIP

:28:24. > :28:28.which none of the other three can do much about? All three parties are

:28:29. > :28:34.very rattled by UKIP and they don't yet know how to combat it. And, of

:28:35. > :28:36.course, it has important implications for the British

:28:37. > :28:42.election next year, because it is looking as if UKIP will block both

:28:43. > :28:46.the Labour Party and Conservative Party from securing a majority and

:28:47. > :28:49.we will get another hung parliament. But it might not be a manageable

:28:50. > :28:54.hung parliament like the one we had in 2010, but a highly fragmented one

:28:55. > :28:58.with a number of small parties and the two major parties, so it becomes

:28:59. > :29:04.very difficult to form a viable government. 2009 was a die a year

:29:05. > :29:10.for the Labour Party. They have to pick up a year `` a bit. But the

:29:11. > :29:13.Conservatives could go into third if UKIP and labour fight for the first

:29:14. > :29:16.two places, which I think will be the first time the Conservatives

:29:17. > :29:21.have ever come third in a national election. Absolutely. In every

:29:22. > :29:27.national elections since the party was formed it has come first or

:29:28. > :29:31.second. Well, we will deal with the consequences of that shortly. Megan

:29:32. > :29:34.Green is also here. Why is your company called Maverick

:29:35. > :29:41.intelligence? Off the wall? Different? Able to think outside the

:29:42. > :29:46.box. The collapse of the economy both here and in Europe. How much is

:29:47. > :29:50.that influencing the way people are thinking about the European Union

:29:51. > :29:53.and what they want to say to the European Union, perhaps, as opposed

:29:54. > :29:58.to what they want to say to their own governments? European Parliament

:29:59. > :30:01.elections are always used as a protest vote across Europe, but this

:30:02. > :30:05.year economics will really matter. We've gone through a massive global

:30:06. > :30:09.financial crisis but also an existential crisis in the Eurozone.

:30:10. > :30:13.A lot of the votes for extreme parties, particularly on the right

:30:14. > :30:20.of the spectrum, will be protests against Eurozone or EU membership.

:30:21. > :30:23.Will it have any effect? Extreme parties will not win and they won't

:30:24. > :30:28.control the parliament may cannot agree on much. In terms of actually

:30:29. > :30:33.affecting policy, it will be difficult. The one thing on which

:30:34. > :30:37.they agree is they are against the transatlantic trade and investment

:30:38. > :30:41.partnership. An agreement which is a free trade agreement between the EU

:30:42. > :30:43.and US which is being negotiated now which could further delay the

:30:44. > :30:49.completion of the negotiations. It's meant to be a deficit neutral way of

:30:50. > :30:53.providing a stimulus for the US and EU, and the EU could benefit from

:30:54. > :30:59.that. It delay will hurt the EU economically. I said at the

:31:00. > :31:02.beginning of the programme that some European Union countries had been

:31:03. > :31:07.teetering on the verge of collapse. Are they still teetering? Or do you

:31:08. > :31:22.think the Eurozone is stable for the moment? Plaintiff has changed. Now

:31:23. > :31:31.it has changed. The most likely scenario is that we have a Japanese

:31:32. > :31:44.style scenario, it is given but a different story. It sounds pretty

:31:45. > :31:48.dreadful? That is one backdrop. But the thing about the United Kingdom

:31:49. > :31:54.was the terrible situation with the Labour Party. They had just had the

:31:55. > :32:04.expenses scandal, a change of leadership, it was a tradable

:32:05. > :32:10.background. It is why they came up with less than 16% of the vote. ``

:32:11. > :32:29.terrible background. They the general election. He got

:32:30. > :32:32.trounced. It is perfectly possible to when European elections but few

:32:33. > :32:44.people seem to think the matter very much. The have no consequence. The

:32:45. > :32:54.polls are closed the EU, because in half an hour. Here is the latest

:32:55. > :33:00.David, thank you. Video footage of the gunman who shot

:33:01. > :33:03.dead three people at the Jewish Museum in Brussels yesterday has

:33:04. > :33:06.been released by police. An Israeli couple and a French woman were

:33:07. > :33:07.killed in the attack and another person was seriously injured. Duncan

:33:08. > :33:11.Crawford reports. The moment of horror when a gunman

:33:12. > :33:14.walked into the Jewish Museum in Brussels. The blurred image in the

:33:15. > :33:16.doorway behind him is one of his victims. Captured on security

:33:17. > :33:21.camera, the man pulls out a Kalashnikov and opens fire. The

:33:22. > :33:27.people inside had no chance. He then packs up his things and seemingly

:33:28. > :33:31.walks calmly away. Today the Jewish community mourned its dead. The

:33:32. > :33:34.victims were all shot in the neck and face and included an Israeli

:33:35. > :33:43.couple, a French woman and a Belgian man. Many are in shock but not all

:33:44. > :33:51.are surprised. We are very sad and disappointed to hear about this

:33:52. > :33:59.event but not surprised. People on the street say 'go back to Israel'

:34:00. > :34:05.and things like that. We see it on a daily basis. We understood something

:34:06. > :34:08.terrible might happen. Police are investigating a number of motives

:34:09. > :34:11.but their main line of enquiry is that it was an anti`Semitic attack.

:34:12. > :34:14.Security has now been stepped up at synagogues and other Jewish sites

:34:15. > :34:17.across the country. It has now been over 24 hours since the shooting

:34:18. > :34:20.took place at the museum and police appear to be struggling to identify

:34:21. > :34:23.the killer. Prosecutors say whoever carried out this attack was well

:34:24. > :34:28.prepared and probably acted alone. They are calling on the public to

:34:29. > :34:30.help. The Jewish community in Belgium is 40,000 strong and its

:34:31. > :34:36.leaders have recently reported a rise in hate crimes. Police hope the

:34:37. > :34:40.release of CCTV images will help track down the killer. Nobody has

:34:41. > :34:51.claimed responsibility for the attack. For the moment, the gunman

:34:52. > :34:54.remains at large. Thousands of students have gathered

:34:55. > :34:57.for a candle`lit vigil at the University of California to remember

:34:58. > :34:59.the six people killed by the British`born student Elliot Rodger.

:35:00. > :35:01.The 22`year`old stabbed his three house`mates and shot three other

:35:02. > :35:04.people in Santa Barbara. Rodger, whose father is a Hollywood film

:35:05. > :35:10.director, was later found dead in his car.

:35:11. > :35:13.It's the final half hour of voting in the fourth and final day of the

:35:14. > :35:17.European elections. The estimated turnout across the 21 nations voting

:35:18. > :35:20.is just over 43%. In France, the far right National Front party leader

:35:21. > :35:24.Marine Le Pen says there's been a surge in support for her

:35:25. > :35:26.anti`immigrant, Euro`sceptic party. She called for the dissolution of

:35:27. > :35:31.the French National Assembly, saying it no longer represented the French

:35:32. > :35:34.people. The businessman Petro Poroshenko

:35:35. > :35:37.claims he's won the Ukrainian Presidential election. Exit polls

:35:38. > :35:40.suggest the confectionery billionaire ` who's known as the

:35:41. > :35:47."chocolate king" ` won more than 55% of the vote in the first round.

:35:48. > :35:50.President Obama has made a surprise visit to troops in Afghanistan. Air

:35:51. > :35:53.Force One landed at Bagram Air Field, north of Kabul, which serves

:35:54. > :35:56.as America's main base in the country. After meeting military

:35:57. > :35:59.leaders, the President said he was close to a decision about the number

:36:00. > :36:03.of American troops who will remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014. He told

:36:04. > :36:09.troops that the US was planning a limited military presence once a

:36:10. > :36:12.bi`lateral agreement is signed. The Pope has invited the Palestinian

:36:13. > :36:16.and Israeli presidents to visit him in the Vatican together to pray for

:36:17. > :36:19.peace. The offer ` which has been accepted by both leaders ` was made

:36:20. > :36:22.as the Pontiff continued his three`day visit to the Middle East.

:36:23. > :36:33.Today he prayed at the concrete barrier Israel is building in and

:36:34. > :36:36.around the West Bank. Thailand's new military rulers are

:36:37. > :36:39.reported to have released the former Prime Minister after she was

:36:40. > :36:46.detained. A source told the BBC that she had been told not to involve

:36:47. > :36:48.yourself in politics. We'll have more news updates

:36:49. > :36:59.throughout the night. Now back to David Dimbleby.

:37:00. > :37:05.The key to understanding how the European Parliament what is how to

:37:06. > :37:16.understand how it is formed. Once they reach the European Parliament,

:37:17. > :37:24.the group. `` they group. It is the largest selector that apart from

:37:25. > :37:30.India. The groupings matter. Here is a look at the construction of the

:37:31. > :37:38.parliament. The groupings are other things to watch. Ten years ago, this

:37:39. > :37:49.is what happened. The carnivals will help us tonight. `` colours. The

:37:50. > :38:00.biggest single grouping in 2004 was the European People's party. You can

:38:01. > :38:09.see UKIP improbable. `` in purple. 56 for the others. You can just form

:38:10. > :38:15.a group because you want to. You need seven different nationalities

:38:16. > :38:20.and 25 MEPs minimum. If you do not have an off then you can end up with

:38:21. > :38:26.a bunch of other ministers who do not believe in what you believe in.

:38:27. > :38:38.Here are the levels. 88. `` Liberals. Greens, 42. 200

:38:39. > :38:42.socialists. 41 harder left. The British Conservatives were in this

:38:43. > :38:53.grouping. But they decided it was not raped when enough. `` right wing

:38:54. > :39:08.enough. I will change the chamber. This is the ECR. Conservatives

:39:09. > :39:14.setting it up. 54 MEPs. You have got some fragmentation. The question is

:39:15. > :39:29.one of the British Conservatives can keep this together. That is all

:39:30. > :39:34.going to be discovered by the results in the United Kingdom and

:39:35. > :39:45.elsewhere. Five years ago, the date for liberals. `` there were 84

:39:46. > :39:51.Liberals. 35 on the hard left. One more point. The biggest grouping

:39:52. > :40:05.gets the chance to choose the new looking commission president. ``

:40:06. > :40:15.European Commission. It could be a lift when politician from Germany,

:40:16. > :40:29.and our candidates. `` other candidates. There we are.

:40:30. > :40:40.Thank you. About the Conservatives, if they shrink, the blues. `` they

:40:41. > :40:46.lose. What would they do then? I don't think they need to be worried

:40:47. > :40:52.about eating enough seats. `` getting. If we look at the polls,

:40:53. > :40:56.they may not have seven countries but they would have enough seats,

:40:57. > :41:00.they would have to find new friends in Europe. We probably will have

:41:01. > :41:05.parties willing to join but these are parties who are not mainstream

:41:06. > :41:13.parties. What repercussions will that have, domestically, if the go

:41:14. > :41:20.with anti`immigrant parties and other parties in Finland and like

:41:21. > :41:26.that. But they would not rejoin other parties? I think that is

:41:27. > :41:32.unlikely. David Tanner media promise. He said he would take as

:41:33. > :41:41.MEPs out of the European People's party. At the time, William Hague

:41:42. > :41:53.told him not to do it but David Tamblyn use that promise to back him

:41:54. > :42:04.and not Liam Fox. `` David Cameron. Good evening Matthew. At the moment

:42:05. > :42:17.we have been given that motorcycles. `` the turnout figures. They said

:42:18. > :42:29.they have reversed the trend of falling tonight. 43.1% is the

:42:30. > :42:41.estimated time out. `` turn out. Last time round it was 43%. They

:42:42. > :42:48.have gone up 0.1%! What is the gossip about what is happening in

:42:49. > :42:53.Europe? You are talking about the political groupings. A spokesman has

:42:54. > :42:58.been saying that they are pretty confident that they have won this.

:42:59. > :43:02.The biggest grouping in the parliament. They do not have an

:43:03. > :43:07.outright majority. But they are looking at the figures and they seem

:43:08. > :43:12.pretty confident. At the same time, the leading candidate for the

:43:13. > :43:18.Socialists and the Democrats, he says he could form a working

:43:19. > :43:25.majority. It is not going to be sorted out tonight, it will take

:43:26. > :43:30.many days and many weeks. I have been talking to some UKIP

:43:31. > :43:38.spokespeople. They seem pretty confident. They think they will be

:43:39. > :43:49.able to hold the group together in the European Parliament. And also

:43:50. > :43:54.keep the Danish People's party, rather than them defecting to join

:43:55. > :44:06.the Conservatives. Also interesting to see the results in Portland. ``

:44:07. > :44:17.Poland. British MEPs are the largest number in that grouping. Poles are

:44:18. > :44:25.second. Could they overtake? Is your impression, whatever happens on the

:44:26. > :44:31.right and on the left, disaffected for different reasons, that the

:44:32. > :44:37.centre of the European Parliament, the Conservatives and the

:44:38. > :44:49.Socialists, will hold together and go on pushing the project as they

:44:50. > :44:54.see it? The consensus is that the extreme right and the extreme wet,

:44:55. > :44:59.there are such deviations, they will not be able to form any sort of core

:45:00. > :45:07.student group that will be able to push this Parliament in a different

:45:08. > :45:10.direction. `` extreme left. The centre`right and the centre`left are

:45:11. > :45:14.going to have to listen if there is a big tonight for the parties which

:45:15. > :45:24.represent the extremes. The dissatisfaction. If there is a big

:45:25. > :45:27.tonight, for those parties, the centre groups are going to have to

:45:28. > :45:35.listen. I have an interesting anecdote. I was walking along and I

:45:36. > :45:39.bumped into the leader of the liberal group, a seasoned politician

:45:40. > :45:48.and former Prime Minister of Belgium. I asked him if he was

:45:49. > :45:54.worried about the usual sceptics. He had a flippant comment but he said I

:45:55. > :45:58.want to reform, so that by a lot of people across the political spectrum

:45:59. > :46:05.talking about reform. We will just have to see the winners take that.

:46:06. > :46:14.Have they ever really listened? To the objections? A lot of people

:46:15. > :46:23.would argue that they haven't. Voters have rejected this or that

:46:24. > :46:31.treaty. Vote us then just accept the treaty. An awful lot of people,

:46:32. > :46:36.tonight, it looks as though if the polls beforehand have been at it,

:46:37. > :46:43.they will express discontent. Is that going to stop the

:46:44. > :46:52.Federalist... It is written into the DNA. That some people, when you make

:46:53. > :46:58.directory speeches, that they have to listen to the voices. If they

:46:59. > :47:11.don't, the project will risk collapse. Let's go to Warsaw,

:47:12. > :47:15.Poland. What is the story there? Good evening. It's interesting to

:47:16. > :47:21.hear Matthew talk about the European Conservatives and reformists. The

:47:22. > :47:25.leader of the law in Justice party, who aligns himself with the European

:47:26. > :47:32.Conservatives and reformist, he has come out saying that his party has

:47:33. > :47:37.had the best result ever, his words. However, the Prime Minister, and

:47:38. > :47:40.also the leader of Civic Platform, they align themselves with the

:47:41. > :47:43.European People's party and they say they will have to wait until they

:47:44. > :47:48.get the full results to know the full picture. There is a new kid on

:47:49. > :47:56.the block, so to speak. There is a new party being led by the

:47:57. > :48:00.incredibly controversial leader who is highly Eurosceptic. He is leading

:48:01. > :48:04.the Congress of the new right and has come out saying that Poland is

:48:05. > :48:09.marching in the right direction. Whatever direction Poland is Mark ``

:48:10. > :48:13.marching in, one thing is sure, this country is infamous for a low

:48:14. > :48:18.turnout. The pastor European Parliamentary elections at the title

:48:19. > :48:21.of second lowest with Slovakia having the lowest turnout and

:48:22. > :48:26.unfortunately, from the figures we hear now, it will once again be

:48:27. > :48:30.crowned with a low turnout. You think the people of Poland are not

:48:31. > :48:38.interested in what goes on in Brussels, or don't think they're

:48:39. > :48:44.both will have an effect? What is the turn of the national elections

:48:45. > :48:48.in Poland. It's interesting you should say that. Poland is seen as a

:48:49. > :48:55.success story for the European Union. Even throughout the financial

:48:56. > :49:00.crisis, the GDP continued to grow. But it is still growing. It is still

:49:01. > :49:05.growing. It's going the right way. But unemployment remains stubbornly

:49:06. > :49:09.high, between 13 and 14%, which relates to 2 million people out of

:49:10. > :49:13.work. That means there is a high number of people who leave the

:49:14. > :49:19.country, the skill shortage, a brain drain that the country can't afford.

:49:20. > :49:24.The billions of euros they get from the structural funds, they need to

:49:25. > :49:32.invest those into maintaining innovation and to bring this country

:49:33. > :49:35.away from being a catch`up economy and into innovation. Generally, from

:49:36. > :49:40.the people I've spoken to, there are people who are happy the direction

:49:41. > :49:45.this country is going into. The problem the politicians have is that

:49:46. > :49:52.they cannot galvanise people to vote. They cannot get people into

:49:53. > :49:56.the polling booths. Tonight could turn out to be a defining moment in

:49:57. > :50:00.the history of Britain's relationship with the European

:50:01. > :50:10.Union. It's a relationship that has seen many, many ups and downs which

:50:11. > :50:16.you might well remember. We must recreate the European family in a

:50:17. > :50:21.regional structure. Or it may be the United States of Europe. A

:50:22. > :50:24.staggering blow dealt to Western unity in this Council in Brussels

:50:25. > :50:31.when France blackball is Britain from the common market. Britain, I

:50:32. > :50:37.hope you will agree, has much to contribute to this process and, as

:50:38. > :50:46.members of the community, we shall be better able to do so. The power

:50:47. > :50:49.to govern ourselves must remain with the British people. You are asking

:50:50. > :51:01.the British people to destroy themselves. Yes is now showing at

:51:02. > :51:06.67% and no at 33%. The Commissioner said at the press conference the

:51:07. > :51:11.other day that he wanted the European Parliament to be the

:51:12. > :51:20.democratic body of the body, and he wanted the Council ministers to be

:51:21. > :51:24.the Senate. No, no, no. It's rather like sending your opening batsmen to

:51:25. > :51:27.the crease only for them to find that the moment the first ball is

:51:28. > :51:38.bowled that their bats have been broken before the game by the team

:51:39. > :51:42.captain. The government has concluded that Britain's best

:51:43. > :51:49.interest are best served by suspending our interest in the ERM.

:51:50. > :51:52.Like me all those leaked, don't bind my hands when I'm negotiating on

:51:53. > :51:59.behalf of the British nation. `` like me or loathe me. Ministers and

:52:00. > :52:04.bureaucrats saw their long dream for a single currency turn to reality

:52:05. > :52:10.today for nearly 300 million people across Europe. Fierce clashes

:52:11. > :52:14.continue tonight in Athens after Greek MPs voted to impose tax

:52:15. > :52:22.increases and spending cuts in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy. Well,

:52:23. > :52:26.Emily is up on the platform with some people who have seen the ups

:52:27. > :52:31.and downs of our relationship with Europe. Isabel Harding from the

:52:32. > :52:39.Spectator and Andrew lawn sleep are here. Let's discuss where we think

:52:40. > :52:43.Britain's relationship with the EU is heading tonight. Do you feel

:52:44. > :52:49.comfortable, Andrew, calling the UKIP vote a protest vote still? No,

:52:50. > :52:53.I think it reflects something deeper and something longer than that.

:52:54. > :53:00.Looking at your film, you remember the referendum in the early 1970s,

:53:01. > :53:03.Margaret Thatcher was a great evangelist for joining the common

:53:04. > :53:08.market as it was then. Now, of course, she is the pin`up girl of

:53:09. > :53:13.those many conservatives and UKIP supporters who want to be out of the

:53:14. > :53:16.European Union. If you are looking at a long`term trend in British

:53:17. > :53:21.politics, certainly on the right of the politics it's slightly different

:53:22. > :53:28.than the left. But on the left there has been a drift where if I said

:53:29. > :53:33.Tory are pro`European, who are you left with? You have Kenneth Clarke

:53:34. > :53:39.are many run out of names, and they are running out of it of time. Even

:53:40. > :53:41.when Nick Clegg talks about European says that he wants reform as much as

:53:42. > :53:45.anybody else. There's nobody feels solid saying it's all going fine? A

:53:46. > :53:53.crib or no, it's one of those that politicians have to acknowledge the

:53:54. > :53:58.worries over. What is interesting about Conservative MPs and what they

:53:59. > :54:01.have found on the doorstep is the voters who normally go Conservatives

:54:02. > :54:03.say they will vote UKIP this time not because they're just angry but

:54:04. > :54:16.because they think this will help David Cameron when he renegotiate 's

:54:17. > :54:20.the negotiations. A British delusion, but I think they probably

:54:21. > :54:25.think that. Do you think that the UKIP vote is just about Europe now?

:54:26. > :54:36.I don't think so. It's about the politician 's failure to connect

:54:37. > :54:37.with the electorate, their failure to speak humanly. Although there are

:54:38. > :54:44.obvious complaints about Europe that remote, but it is a proxy for wider

:54:45. > :54:50.and deeper things. Anger with elites of all sorts, whether political or

:54:51. > :54:54.financial, and expressing the rage filled by a lot of people with a

:54:55. > :54:59.changing world which leaves them feeling insecure or left behind.

:55:00. > :55:03.They think other people are doing better and to be fair to the EU,

:55:04. > :55:09.it's not all their fault. Some of it might be, but not all. This is an

:55:10. > :55:13.opportunity where you can fire all the rage at, whether you're

:55:14. > :55:20.government or personal circumstances, you can fire it at

:55:21. > :55:22.the EU. The problem for mainstream politicians is responding to UKIP,

:55:23. > :55:26.and it appeals to voters because it's rough around the edges. You

:55:27. > :55:31.can't have a personality transplant and start talking like Nigel Farage.

:55:32. > :55:36.That would be very weird. If Ed Miliband is worried about being

:55:37. > :55:41.weird... Will Nigel Farage end up sounding like the others? Some

:55:42. > :55:47.people say in a rather phoney way, he is a former man from the city

:55:48. > :55:51.went to private school but has had a brilliant way of posing as the

:55:52. > :55:55.champion of the ordinary man. As long as he is the antiestablishment

:55:56. > :56:03.insurgent, he establishes some profit from that. He can then

:56:04. > :56:06.denouncing people as all is the same elite. The danger that some people

:56:07. > :56:09.is that he might become a bit more conventional than a bit more

:56:10. > :56:15.establishment and he loses part of his appeal. If UKIP will not fizzle

:56:16. > :56:18.away, they have to do the delicate balancing act between coming more

:56:19. > :56:23.than a protest party which is serious about MPs, but not losing

:56:24. > :56:27.the essential appeal by being the gorilla force. You have to get from

:56:28. > :56:35.the pint of beer to the bacon sandwich without a hiccup. You can

:56:36. > :56:38.look at Boris Johnson as an example of a mainstream politician who

:56:39. > :56:43.connect with voters who is his own man. He is posh, unashamedly posh,

:56:44. > :56:49.and voters respect him that rather than pretending anything else. He is

:56:50. > :56:54.a one`off. The only one who can pull the trick. What do you think that

:56:55. > :56:58.this point the parties will look at? They are all running around like

:56:59. > :57:03.headless chickens saying this is the new direction. What should they be

:57:04. > :57:08.looking for? David Cameron monster show his party he is serious about

:57:09. > :57:14.immigration reform. He has some reforms he can dig out to show the

:57:15. > :57:17.Tory right. In terms of labour, at the beginning of the campaign, some

:57:18. > :57:24.of them are quietly confident they might win the poll, but they are

:57:25. > :57:28.less confident now. In a way, Nigel Farage told us he would win last

:57:29. > :57:33.week so he had better win to keep the momentum going. The Liberal

:57:34. > :57:39.Democrats are just trying to avoid annihilation will be pleased ending

:57:40. > :57:43.up with just four MEPs. Back with us later, but now, to David. We have

:57:44. > :57:48.about three minutes before we get the first results at ten o'clock.

:57:49. > :57:52.What will you be watching out for? Above all, who comes first. His

:57:53. > :57:58.Nigel Farage right UKIP will top the poll, or are Labour right. If it is

:57:59. > :58:04.right, how badly third World Conservatives come? Would they come

:58:05. > :58:06.third in the heartlands like the south`east of England? Finally, the

:58:07. > :58:14.Liberal Democrats, do they end up in fifth place behind the Greens? Each

:58:15. > :58:16.of the placings are important. From the European point of view, what

:58:17. > :58:22.will you be watching for as the first thing? It will be how well do

:58:23. > :58:26.the antiestablishment, Eurosceptic parties doing big countries like

:58:27. > :58:28.France and Italy where they will determine the composition of the

:58:29. > :58:32.parliament. The second thing I will look for is the balance of power

:58:33. > :58:37.between the centre`right groups and the centre`left. Can the centre`left

:58:38. > :58:43.make inroads and maybe even topped the poll? Where is the strongest

:58:44. > :58:48.anti`European project feeling in Europe outside of Britain? In terms

:58:49. > :58:52.of where they will do the best in the polling, we think that is in

:58:53. > :58:58.France and in the UK. That is where you think it will be. We can find

:58:59. > :59:07.out from Sunderland how quickly we expect to get the result. Can we do

:59:08. > :59:14.that? Hello, David. How soon do we think we will get a result up there?

:59:15. > :59:17.Well, it is just ten o'clock, and we expect that certainly in the next

:59:18. > :59:20.half hour we will get the news from here of a declaration. What will

:59:21. > :59:25.happen is we will get the local declaration from Sunderland, and as

:59:26. > :59:32.you know, they pride themselves for getting early declarations. They are

:59:33. > :59:37.in the hands of 11 other councils up and down the north`east, but they do

:59:38. > :59:42.hope to have a declaration in the north`east by 10:30pm. That is the

:59:43. > :59:47.smart money at the moment. Thank you very much. Well, we have 25 seconds

:59:48. > :59:51.to go. Briefly, Vernon. I will be looking to the answer for two

:59:52. > :59:55.questions, what Europe do people want to live in, the moderate left

:59:56. > :00:01.or right? And the second question, do they want to live in a European

:00:02. > :00:04.Union at all? As suggested, Britain is becoming more European in its

:00:05. > :00:16.euro scepticism, all Europe is becoming more British. It is 10pm.

:00:17. > :00:22.The news we have at this stage is that in France the exit polls are

:00:23. > :00:28.saying the far right Front National, Le Pen, have come top of the pole in

:00:29. > :00:33.France. And in Greece, the radical left say Reza coalition appeared to

:00:34. > :00:38.have won. In Germany, on the other hand, Angela Merkel's centre`right

:00:39. > :00:40.Christian Democrats stay on top even though it looks as though

:00:41. > :00:48.Eurosceptics have one maxi tear. Let's have a look at some of the

:00:49. > :00:54.results with Jeremy. Let's look at the 2009 results. The

:00:55. > :01:02.circle will show you the proportions of votes. Let's have a look at the

:01:03. > :01:10.share of the vote in 2009 for France. This is last time, not

:01:11. > :01:27.tonight's result. UMP, the centre right party.

:01:28. > :01:36.Among the others on 24% would have been Front National. Let me give you

:01:37. > :01:39.extra polls from today and show you what we think is happening. It

:01:40. > :01:46.represents a big jump forward for the Front National and Marine Le

:01:47. > :01:51.Pen. They have got their own column and they seem to be in first place,

:01:52. > :01:58.according to the exit poll. Second place, down quite a few points is

:01:59. > :02:07.the UMP. This is France were mourned's party down to 14%.

:02:08. > :02:18.Francois Hollande's party. The Greens down 9%. Substantial turnout

:02:19. > :02:24.for others. Some of the vote that was going to the two biggest parties

:02:25. > :02:30.has led away, particularly to Front National.

:02:31. > :02:35.One thing, a word about exit polls. We are used to them not being

:02:36. > :02:42.accurate in the sense that they are asking people how they did but these

:02:43. > :02:47.tend to be accurate, is that right? Historically they do in European

:02:48. > :02:52.elections. Whether it is because of the patterns of voting, they seem to

:02:53. > :02:57.be robust and we do not see them fluctuate. They are pretty good

:02:58. > :03:09.predictions. Are laid on the same way as our exit polls? `` are they.

:03:10. > :03:13.It varies across countries. Some people ask people and others have

:03:14. > :03:20.similar ways as we do. How long until we get the official result's

:03:21. > :03:24.in France, I do not know. The politicians seem to be responding

:03:25. > :03:34.that it will be close to the final result.

:03:35. > :03:37.This is a big upset? Seismic, in terms of the Socialist Prime

:03:38. > :03:44.Minister tonight. He was stressed in lack. `` he was breast in black. He

:03:45. > :03:53.talked about a political earthquake for the European Union. You have had

:03:54. > :03:58.the exit poll results. On early projections, Front National has

:03:59. > :04:02.taken 25 seats out of a possible 74. In 2009 they had just three seats.

:04:03. > :04:06.It is a resounding result for them and the first time they have

:04:07. > :04:11.finished as the top party in a national vote. It has been a

:04:12. > :04:20.disastrous night for the Socialists, 15% of the vote which

:04:21. > :04:25.equals 13 seats. France Warhol on calling an emergency cabinet meeting

:04:26. > :04:42.for the morning at 830 AM. `` France Warhol on. There was a grim meeting

:04:43. > :04:46.for the UMP as well this evening. They have voted in eight regions.

:04:47. > :04:51.There is some evidence that 30% of the under 35 is have voted for FN.

:04:52. > :04:57.Unemployment is high in France but it is well over 20% for young people

:04:58. > :05:02.in this country. That speaks of their disillusionment in mainstream

:05:03. > :05:10.politics and also, blue`collar workers. I was in the steel belt

:05:11. > :05:15.last week and many of them said they would vote for Front National. It

:05:16. > :05:19.shows they have co`opted the working class vote and the young vote around

:05:20. > :05:24.the country, particularly in Socialist areas, where the Socialist

:05:25. > :05:31.party has not been performing well. Why has the young people's vote gone

:05:32. > :05:37.to the Front National? It is a number of reasons. First,

:05:38. > :05:45.austerity. I said about unemployment, 11%. There is the

:05:46. > :05:50.power of spending. And then, of course, the recovery. If they look

:05:51. > :05:54.at the rate of growth it has been anaemic, compare it to how growth is

:05:55. > :05:59.recovering in Britain and Germany. Immigration is a big issue. Pretty

:06:00. > :06:08.much right across the line, people are talking about the reform of the

:06:09. > :06:10.Schengen zone. Nicolas Sarkozy re`entered the fray saying that we

:06:11. > :06:15.needed a slimmer Europe and that they wanted to reform Schengen and

:06:16. > :06:23.if not, they would pull out of it. Sadly, the FN would echo that. It is

:06:24. > :06:31.a lack of trust. I was standing two years ago in this same spot watching

:06:32. > :06:37.Francois Hollande coming up the same spot, but tonight his party have

:06:38. > :06:42.been swept away by the FN and it is because people do not believe in his

:06:43. > :06:46.policies. 850,000 households paid tax for the first time last year and

:06:47. > :06:51.he was telling them that the top 10% of the country would take the hit.

:06:52. > :06:56.They feel very badly done to and they do not have much trust in the

:06:57. > :07:02.Socialist leadership. I am told you may have a guest, is that so? Yes,

:07:03. > :07:18.we need to just have him an earpiece.

:07:19. > :07:22.It is worth remembering the shock of Front National winning this. Nigel

:07:23. > :07:29.Farage said he would not form an alliance with Rela pen and he said

:07:30. > :07:36.they were racist. `` Marine Le Pen. We sought Nigel Farage a moment

:07:37. > :07:41.ago. It is interesting, this French thing. Will this be outside Britain

:07:42. > :07:46.the most spectacular result of the night? I think so, and one that will

:07:47. > :07:51.shake up French politics. It may be similar to the UK. They are not

:07:52. > :07:56.going to take over the Prime Minister real post or presidential

:07:57. > :08:02.post but they will shift mainstream parties. We saw Nicolas Sarkozy

:08:03. > :08:07.saying, we want a different Schengen. They are trying to pick up

:08:08. > :08:11.on one of the main messages, and Thai immigration. It is not about

:08:12. > :08:18.Europe, it is about immigration in France. That is something the

:08:19. > :08:25.mainstream parties are picking up on to win back the voters. Would

:08:26. > :08:32.immigration become something here in Britain and France, leading to a

:08:33. > :08:34.change in the rules? The whole idea of the European Union was freedom of

:08:35. > :08:41.movement across borders within Europe. It is at the heart of it.

:08:42. > :08:45.This is the absolute problem, that freedom of movement is part of the

:08:46. > :08:52.Treaty of Rome signed in 1957, when you had just six founder members in

:08:53. > :08:56.Western Europe. They all had a similar standard of living. Now you

:08:57. > :09:02.have a large number of countries, many much poorer than Western

:09:03. > :09:08.Europe, so immigration is an issue. France has been Eurosceptic for the

:09:09. > :09:11.last few years. They only ratify the Maastricht Treaty recently. They

:09:12. > :09:16.turn down the Constitutional Treaty of 2005. They no longer lead

:09:17. > :09:21.Europe. It has been Eurosceptic for a long period of time. The

:09:22. > :09:23.politicians are not taking notice. Somersaults beginning to come

:09:24. > :09:30.through from the local authorities is that right?

:09:31. > :09:34.These are just the first few. Although these MEPs are allocated by

:09:35. > :09:39.region, we vote on local authorities. I will show you the

:09:40. > :09:47.local authority as it comes through. This is catering will stop UKIP is

:09:48. > :09:54.topping the share of the vote. They are up 19%. A bit of a rise for

:09:55. > :09:59.Labour but really outstripped by what we are seeing for UKIP. The

:10:00. > :10:03.Greens in fourth place, and no sign of the Lib Dems.

:10:04. > :10:09.In Sunderland, Labour has got the lion 's share of the vote. Not be

:10:10. > :10:22.far `` not far behind, UKIP. They have made the bigger gain. The last

:10:23. > :10:27.one, in the south`west, we will go for a declaration.

:10:28. > :10:44.Our first declaration from Sunderland.

:10:45. > :10:49.I am the returning officer for the European parliamentary election held

:10:50. > :10:56.on 20th May two, 2014, hereby declare the votes cast for the

:10:57. > :11:12.north`east region is as follows... `` 22nd May. UK Independence Party,

:11:13. > :11:35.13,934. British National Party, 10,360. Conservative Party, 107,733.

:11:36. > :11:59.English Democrats, 9279. Green Party, 31,605. Labour Party,

:12:00. > :12:16.221,988. Liberal Democrats, 36,093. UK Independence Party, 177,660. I

:12:17. > :12:23.will now allocate the seats for the region. With regard to the first

:12:24. > :12:34.date, the party with the highest number of votes cast is Labour

:12:35. > :12:46.Party. The first suit will be allocated to Jude darling. `` seat.

:12:47. > :12:52.With respect to the second seat, having applied the formula, the

:12:53. > :13:01.party with highest of votes cast is UK Independence Party, UKIP. The

:13:02. > :13:10.seat will be allocated to Jonathan William Arnott. For the allocation

:13:11. > :13:14.of the third seat after applying the formula, the party night with the

:13:15. > :13:36.highest number of votes cast is Labour Party. The third seat will be

:13:37. > :13:40.awarded to Paul Brannen. All three seats are now allocated and I hereby

:13:41. > :13:54.declare the following have been Julia elected for the Northeast

:13:55. > :13:59.region. `` Julia elected. Three seats only from the north`east

:14:00. > :14:03.and you can see the complexity of the system, the way they we have one

:14:04. > :14:10.and then they are reallocated. Let's have a look at the share of the vote

:14:11. > :14:15.in the north`east. Labour, up 11 percentage points. UKIP, up 14

:14:16. > :14:19.percentage points from 2009. The Conservatives down a bit and the

:14:20. > :14:22.Liberal Democrats stand 12 percentage points. A dramatic

:14:23. > :14:25.collapse for the Liberal Democrats confirming that in the North of

:14:26. > :14:30.England, where they thought they would be the opposition to Labour,

:14:31. > :14:37.they have been replaced by conservatives but by UKIP. `` not by

:14:38. > :14:41.Conservatives. We have seen that UKIP can perform well but also it

:14:42. > :14:48.confirms a good performance for a Labour. But a differential, UKIP are

:14:49. > :14:51.going up more than Labour. If that is the pattern across the country,

:14:52. > :15:00.UKIP will win the country as a whole. It is worth noting the

:15:01. > :15:08.collapse of the BNP vote. People remember Nick Griffin on question

:15:09. > :15:11.Time. He soared briefly but this is the moment for the collapse is

:15:12. > :15:18.confirmed. This is our first result from Great Britain and it is Labour

:15:19. > :15:30.one point up, one seat up, Liberal Democrats, one down, Conservatives,

:15:31. > :15:36.one down, UKIP, one up. What you make of this result? UKIP are up

:15:37. > :15:40.more than Labour. If the changes since last time which changed across

:15:41. > :15:43.Britain, UKIP or comfortable you come first, Labour second,

:15:44. > :15:51.Conservatives third. The question is, will it be like that? We just

:15:52. > :15:52.have the declaration from Sunderland and in Sunderland itself on Thursday

:15:53. > :16:00.UKIP some more results from other parts

:16:01. > :16:04.of England, but it is certainly highly consistent with UKIP coming

:16:05. > :16:08.first, Labour second, Conservatives three. Emily, you have more results

:16:09. > :16:14.coming in. Even though they don't give a certain result of they give

:16:15. > :16:20.is an indication. This is the first indication we have had from Wales, a

:16:21. > :16:25.solid Tory heartland and you see a dramatic picture emerging. The

:16:26. > :16:29.Conservatives still top on 29% but just one percentage point below the

:16:30. > :16:35.Ms UKIP. They are the ones making the gains, up 15%. Labour making

:16:36. > :16:38.some gains but dwarfed by the huge purple area for UKIP stock that's

:16:39. > :16:44.the first one we've had in from Wales and I will show you glossed as

:16:45. > :16:53.well. UKIP are at the top with a 32% share of the vote. Again, gains

:16:54. > :16:59.Labour, flat the Conservatives and a drop there. I will just take you to

:17:00. > :17:09.Poole in Dorset, but right down on the South Coast, you can see UKIP,

:17:10. > :17:12.with nearly 40% share of the vote. The Lib Dems Dems losing out. Modest

:17:13. > :17:17.gains for Labour, but once again, this is the story starting to

:17:18. > :17:24.dominate the results, the extraordinarily strong polling for

:17:25. > :17:27.UKIP. We are joined by Suzanne Evans, the UKIP communities

:17:28. > :17:35.spokesman from Westminster. Good evening. On Friday you said that

:17:36. > :17:40.UKIP had not done well in London because the voters were cultural,

:17:41. > :17:45.educated and young. I quote your exact words. Am afraid I've been

:17:46. > :17:47.widely misquoted. I would like to requote myself. I was pose that

:17:48. > :17:53.question by the interviewer, said that UKIP increasingly

:17:54. > :17:57.attracted votes from people who are young, culture and educated, and I

:17:58. > :18:01.like to think I'm two of those by example, so it's good to put the

:18:02. > :18:07.record straight. I won't ask which of the two you are going for. Please

:18:08. > :18:16.don't. Usual imagination. `` usual imagination. If UKIP has done as

:18:17. > :18:20.well as it looks as though it has, and the Front Nationale has done

:18:21. > :18:25.well, coming top, will you change your view about coming together,

:18:26. > :18:30.because you have a similar attitude to what should happen? I don't think

:18:31. > :18:36.we will. We are absolutely not the same. The Front Nationale is an

:18:37. > :18:40.extremist party, and UKIP is not. We hold the centre ground. It's a shame

:18:41. > :18:43.that UKIP has been lumped in with these kind of extremist parties that

:18:44. > :18:49.we see elsewhere in Europe. It's very unfortunate. It says more about

:18:50. > :18:54.the people making the claims that UKIP. We are the common`sense

:18:55. > :18:57.centre. We are Eurosceptic. We are certainly not anything like those

:18:58. > :19:05.parties. I am pretty certain we will not change our mind. But if Le Pen

:19:06. > :19:10.makes over chores and finds that 21% of France's voting for her `` over

:19:11. > :19:15.chores. And including the young people, those disaffected because of

:19:16. > :19:18.unemployment and the way the French economy is going, can't you see a

:19:19. > :19:24.way of making a common cause with them? What is the extremism that

:19:25. > :19:29.stops you? Isn't it fascinating that the EU will be shown tonight will be

:19:30. > :19:33.shown to be a failed project, socially and politically. The EU

:19:34. > :19:42.claims to be an organisation that has held peace in Europe. In fact

:19:43. > :19:48.what it has done is accidentally driven these far right extremist

:19:49. > :19:51.parties to come to the fore. I think we have Francoise Hollande having an

:19:52. > :19:56.emergency meeting tomorrow and I think David Cameron needs to do the

:19:57. > :20:00.same if the same issues arise in Britain. It is a failed project.

:20:01. > :20:08.People don't want a European superstate and the EU should have

:20:09. > :20:12.seen it coming. 60% of the EU population doesn't even trust the

:20:13. > :20:15.European Union. What do you anticipate the other three political

:20:16. > :20:19.parties doing if, indeed, you have come top, and we saw you did do well

:20:20. > :20:21.in the local elections. What do you seriously think they might do

:20:22. > :20:30.between now and the general election? They all seriously need to

:20:31. > :20:34.commit to an immediate in/out referendum on Europe. 2017 is too

:20:35. > :20:38.little, too late, and we know the David Cameron is only committed to

:20:39. > :20:44.that if he is Prime Minister of a majority government, which is pie in

:20:45. > :20:48.the sky. We have already had 3600 different directives from the EU.

:20:49. > :20:51.How many more are we going to have by 2017? How many more poor

:20:52. > :20:56.countries from southern Europe will be given free entry into the UK?

:20:57. > :21:04.Something has to be done and it has to be done urgently. We have heard

:21:05. > :21:11.all sorts of rhetoric since the local election results about how we

:21:12. > :21:15.are listening but in reality they're not doing anything and they need to

:21:16. > :21:21.do something and take action. Thank you for joining us. John Courtis is

:21:22. > :21:25.in his John Wayne position coming out of the bar. I like the way you

:21:26. > :21:29.are standing there. What do you think of the results we have had so

:21:30. > :21:36.far and the way Europe looks like it is going? As far as Europe is going,

:21:37. > :21:40.these won't be a good night the governments in general. And also it

:21:41. > :21:45.will be a pretty good night for what we might call anti`system parties,

:21:46. > :21:49.both left and right. It looks as though the UK will be part of that

:21:50. > :21:53.club. We saw in the north`east that the UKIP vote went up by two points

:21:54. > :21:57.more than the Labour vote. Some of the individual council results from

:21:58. > :22:03.Wales and Gloucestershire are showing bigger gaps. It is obviously

:22:04. > :22:06.early, but it's beginning to look highly likely that UKIP will come

:22:07. > :22:12.first and the question is, how far will they come first. Will it still

:22:13. > :22:15.only be a narrow lead like the north`east suggests, or will it be a

:22:16. > :22:19.bigger lead, which is what some of the other results from individual

:22:20. > :22:25.councils are suggesting. That is the fascinating question. For the

:22:26. > :22:31.Europhile Liberal Democrats, it doesn't look like a good night. You

:22:32. > :22:35.poll these things very closely. Do you expect to detect any change in

:22:36. > :22:40.the political party's response to UKIP doing so well, and indeed the

:22:41. > :22:49.disaffection you described in Europe as a whole. All political parties

:22:50. > :22:53.are struggling to work out how to deal with this. If they promised a

:22:54. > :22:58.referendum, that will shoot the UKIP box. But they have grown even

:22:59. > :23:03.further. We saw the government tried to talk about immigration. It so far

:23:04. > :23:08.has not succeeded. In truth, none of the political parties are not clear

:23:09. > :23:22.how they deal with this phenomenon. Thank you very much. On my left is

:23:23. > :23:27.Andrew Lilley: `` Lillicoe. Are you surprised by the French result? Is

:23:28. > :23:33.there this `` degree of worry with Europe? In the French context there

:23:34. > :23:39.was 10% with unemployment stagnant and growth compared to Germany and

:23:40. > :23:48.the UK the same. A general sense of the same things like austerity,

:23:49. > :23:53.which the Front National have played against the government to boost

:23:54. > :23:56.their vote. The Front National have often spiked up to fall away rapidly

:23:57. > :24:01.and I think there is a question of how long they can sustain this. I

:24:02. > :24:07.can come back and talk more, but we are going to Chelmsford, Essex, for

:24:08. > :24:10.the European union result. You have to be patient. In London there are

:24:11. > :24:13.17 parties standing and they have to read them all out. Let's go to

:24:14. > :24:32.Chelmsford. The English Democrats got 457. The

:24:33. > :24:46.Green Party got 3162. The Labour Party 5285. The Liberal Democrats,

:24:47. > :24:55.3790. No to the EU, 89. UKIP, 16,065.

:24:56. > :25:01.There were a total of 99 vote rejected. Now turning to the

:25:02. > :25:08.European Parliamentary election for the Eastern region. I will start by

:25:09. > :25:15.giving the figures for each party and then I will go through which

:25:16. > :25:20.seat was allocated. Firstly, the count. What we heard was the local

:25:21. > :25:29.result from Chelmsford and now we will get the regional result for all

:25:30. > :25:36.the parties. British National party, fighting unsustainable housing

:25:37. > :25:49.because we care, 12,465. Christian peoples Alliance, 11,627. The

:25:50. > :26:05.Conservative Party, 446,569. The English Democrats, 16,497. The Green

:26:06. > :26:17.Party, 133,331. The Labour Party, 271,601. The Liberal Democrats,

:26:18. > :26:27.108,000 and ten. No to the EU, yes to workers rights, 4870. The UK

:26:28. > :26:33.Independence Party, 542,812. There were in total, across the region,

:26:34. > :26:43.6937 rejected ballot papers. This means then that the seven candidates

:26:44. > :26:46.elected for the Eastern region not, Patrick James O'Flynn, UK

:26:47. > :26:56.Independence party. If the candidates would like to join

:26:57. > :26:59.me on stage, that would be great. The second seat under the system,

:27:00. > :27:15.Vicky Ford, Conservative Party. The Serb `` third seat, Richard

:27:16. > :27:25.Stuart Alex, Labour Party. `` Richard Stuart Howitt. The fourth

:27:26. > :27:34.seed ghosted `` goes to Stuart Agnew, UKIP. The fifth seat is

:27:35. > :27:38.Jeffrey Holden, Conservative Party. `` Geoffrey Van Auden. The sixth

:27:39. > :27:46.seed is Tim Aker, UK Independence Party. `` seat. Finally, the seventh

:27:47. > :27:48.and last for the region ghosted David Campbell Bannerman, the

:27:49. > :28:04.Conservatives. The turnout was 36.19%. Thank you

:28:05. > :28:10.very much indeed. 34 UKIP, one Conservative, one Labour Party. That

:28:11. > :28:14.is the way it has gone. I think the political earthquake that UKIP

:28:15. > :28:19.promised is firmly underway tonight, and particularly in the

:28:20. > :28:21.Eastern region. I would like to thank the returning officer, all of

:28:22. > :28:25.the returning officer, all of accounting staff here and across the

:28:26. > :28:29.whole Eastern region `` the counting staff. Thank them for the impeccable

:28:30. > :28:38.way they have run the election. Thank you very much for your time

:28:39. > :28:44.and efforts. Tonight is such an exciting night. I think that UKIP

:28:45. > :28:50.has done something quite President Assad. We have topped the poll in

:28:51. > :28:57.this region. We are all excited to match that across creperie `` has

:28:58. > :29:02.done something quite unprecedented. `` match that across the country. We

:29:03. > :29:05.are going to force the pace on the issue. The British people have

:29:06. > :29:08.spoken and they want control of their nation. They want some of

:29:09. > :29:14.their money back. They want control of their borders as well. Any party

:29:15. > :29:17.does not `` that does not hear that message loud and clear is in for

:29:18. > :29:20.another shock less than a year from now when we fight again at the

:29:21. > :29:25.general election. I would like to thank the whole UKIP campaign team,

:29:26. > :29:32.all of those Friday evenings sweating over Pyrex boards. They

:29:33. > :29:36.have been well worthwhile. The team effort has been fantastic. The

:29:37. > :29:44.camaraderie has been brilliant. Well, he is thanking his own party

:29:45. > :29:50.workers, that is Patrick O'Flynn, the first elected MEP for UKIP in

:29:51. > :29:56.the Eastern region. They got three seats. The Conservatives got to, and

:29:57. > :30:08.the Labour Party just one. The Conservatives got three, sorry.

:30:09. > :30:17.Let's have a look at the share of the vote.

:30:18. > :30:23.A dramatic result for UKIP. Patrick O'Flynn, the man who helped write

:30:24. > :30:27.the words for Nigel Farage, a former com list with the daily express and

:30:28. > :30:34.now a member of the European Parliament, he said the earthquake

:30:35. > :30:37.had happened. He said he was just feeling the fresh tremors. They are

:30:38. > :30:40.now saying that something is happening. It seems almost certain

:30:41. > :30:45.they will top the poll in the country as a whole. There is

:30:46. > :30:48.something interesting going on in the fight for second place. It is

:30:49. > :30:54.not clear that Labour will necessarily come second. The Tories

:30:55. > :31:00.have dropped a little bit, Labour significantly help but from the

:31:01. > :31:04.terrible low base in 2009 during the expenses crisis and a low point for

:31:05. > :31:12.Gordon Brown, at a moment when members of his own cabinet were

:31:13. > :31:21.calling for him to quit. Emily Croydon Mac `` Emily? This is the

:31:22. > :31:28.scoreboard for Great Britain. If you wonder why we are talking to UKIP ``

:31:29. > :31:33.about UKIP, that is the reason, 32% share of the vote, up 14%. It looks

:31:34. > :31:39.like the race is between Conservative and Labour for second

:31:40. > :31:43.place. The Lib Dems are really down, they are tanking and they are

:31:44. > :31:50.behind the Greens. It is early days and we have only had 33 local

:31:51. > :31:53.authorities and 350 to go. One other interesting scoreboard is Wales,

:31:54. > :31:58.where we have had seven local authorities. Labour is top but not

:31:59. > :32:03.far behind and still the party making the real gains, UKIP in

:32:04. > :32:09.second place in Wales. They had a seat last time around, one MEP. That

:32:10. > :32:17.is the Welsh scoreboard. You can see the Lib Dems behind the Greens,

:32:18. > :32:24.behind Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives at the moment in third

:32:25. > :32:28.place. Let's join the Conservative MEP for

:32:29. > :32:36.the Northeast region who lost his seat in Europe. Commiserations. Why

:32:37. > :32:42.did it happen? The north`east has always been a very strong Labour

:32:43. > :32:50.area, even in 2010, there second worst result ever, they got most of

:32:51. > :32:55.the seats. It was always a difficult task to hold on for the Conservative

:32:56. > :32:58.Party. I have been privileged to do it three times but the fourth time

:32:59. > :33:03.was not enough, but we were very close. Was there anything specific

:33:04. > :33:09.about the approach to Europe? UKIP did well in the local elections,

:33:10. > :33:13.didn't they? Yes, they did. They took a lot of votes of the Labour

:33:14. > :33:19.Party and some from us as well but ultimately, it is our national

:33:20. > :33:25.elections that are important and it is not a national swing. It was just

:33:26. > :33:29.too much of us. We live to fight another day. You were a senior

:33:30. > :33:36.figure in Europe. It is tough for you. You're the leader of the Tories

:33:37. > :33:46.in Europe, now you are not. Not any more, I'm not. What will happen if

:33:47. > :33:50.the Conservative vote goes down? You know the European Parliament well.

:33:51. > :33:57.In the mysteries of that parliament, how effective will a reduced

:33:58. > :33:59.Conservative MEP grouping be? I was looking at some of the other

:34:00. > :34:05.results. There have been some excellent candidates elected from

:34:06. > :34:08.our party who have had a good MEP delegation. We will continue to be

:34:09. > :34:14.effective and to work hard for the UK. We will be effective as ever.

:34:15. > :34:18.How would you like to see it? There is talk about whether you will be

:34:19. > :34:27.able to remain in a group if you lose many seats. There is no

:34:28. > :34:32.question about that. You only need 25 MEPs from seven nationalities and

:34:33. > :34:38.looking at the exit polls, we easily have that. There is no prospect of

:34:39. > :34:42.us forming a group. We will obviously lose seats from the UK but

:34:43. > :34:45.from other member states we have done even better, so we will have

:34:46. > :34:55.more members from more member states than previously. You have heard the

:34:56. > :35:01.exit polls from France and the rise of the Front National, and the rise

:35:02. > :35:09.of UKIP here, so what do you think the impact on European Parliament of

:35:10. > :35:13.a growing disaffection, expressed more strongly than through the

:35:14. > :35:21.Conservative Party and David Cameron's proposed referendum, what

:35:22. > :35:27.do you think the impact will be? It is not fair to compere UKIP to the

:35:28. > :35:30.National Front in France. They are openly anti`Semitic and racist and I

:35:31. > :35:35.sincerely hope that UKIP will not have anything to do with them. It is

:35:36. > :35:39.a black day for democracy in Europe that a party as openly racist and

:35:40. > :35:46.anti`Semitic as the French National front wins an election in a member

:35:47. > :35:51.state. There is a lesson for the Europe elite in why people are

:35:52. > :35:57.prepared to vote for such extremist parties. There are lessons to be

:35:58. > :36:00.learned about that. What are the lessons David Cameron should learn

:36:01. > :36:04.if he were to pick up the phone to you and say, what should we do about

:36:05. > :36:12.the UKIP search? What would be your advice? My advice, if he asks, would

:36:13. > :36:18.be to carry on as ever. We must not get this out of proportion. In the

:36:19. > :36:22.last European elections, the Labour Party only got 15% of the vote

:36:23. > :36:27.nationally yet they got 30% of the vote in the general election.

:36:28. > :36:33.European elections are not a good guide to the general election. It is

:36:34. > :36:37.important for my party not to, it `` not to panic. The people of the

:36:38. > :36:44.people will decide at the next election. There is a referendum in

:36:45. > :36:48.2017. That is the right policy. The next election will not be determined

:36:49. > :36:54.on European policy. Let's go to Paris and join the

:36:55. > :36:59.European affairs adviser of the Front National. We have heard from a

:37:00. > :37:07.Conservative defeated here tonight in Britain that it is a disgrace

:37:08. > :37:10.that Europe has seen the rise of racist and fascist parties, Front

:37:11. > :37:22.National at the top of that in France. What is your answer to that?

:37:23. > :37:30.I am not sure that he has heard me, I will try again. Can you hear me?

:37:31. > :37:34.Give me a wave. Yes, I hear you. We heard from a conservative in Britain

:37:35. > :37:40.who has been defeated, lamenting the rise in Europe of as he put it,

:37:41. > :37:45.racist, fascist parties like the Front National. What is your answer

:37:46. > :37:51.to those people who are frightened by what has happened in France?

:37:52. > :37:55.Well, it is a fantastic time for us and an historical time for Europe.

:37:56. > :38:02.Not for the European Union, but for Europe. There is nothing to answer.

:38:03. > :38:04.It is a demonisation. These are tricks that are not working any

:38:05. > :38:10.more. It is a real ant for the people who want to say we need new

:38:11. > :38:16.policy on national level and European level. This is what the

:38:17. > :38:20.French did by answering with such a result, that they wanted a change in

:38:21. > :38:28.France and the European Union. What do you want to see happen in Europe?

:38:29. > :38:37.It is time that the system listens to the people. It is time that the

:38:38. > :38:44.Euro federalists listen to the people. In France, the UK, Germany,

:38:45. > :38:48.everywhere, it is time to change the policies. The people want something

:38:49. > :38:55.else. We should build Europe in another way, not a federalist

:38:56. > :39:02.equate. `` federalist weight. You would like to pull out of the euro,

:39:03. > :39:09.but what about immigration? How would you do that within the EU?

:39:10. > :39:18.Being against massive immigration does not mean you are racist. Being

:39:19. > :39:22.labelled as racist is nonsense on a political skill, especially when you

:39:23. > :39:27.have results in territories where people are not white. It is people

:39:28. > :39:37.wanting to say that the European Union did not detect its people and

:39:38. > :39:39.the Schengen Treaty is a failure. People want to see results about

:39:40. > :39:43.immigration outside our common borders. It is a new deal that we

:39:44. > :39:49.have, especially on immigration issues or economic issues, which are

:39:50. > :39:55.a big problem in the European Union. It is a policy you have, but what is

:39:56. > :39:57.the likelihood of the main parties at the centre of the European

:39:58. > :40:09.Parliament listening to you and responding in the way you want? We

:40:10. > :40:17.have identified several parties with whom we want to work and I think it

:40:18. > :40:22.will happen. There are still some parties getting the final results.

:40:23. > :40:26.We do not know about the polls in Eastern and Central Europe, for

:40:27. > :40:29.example. We are very confident about this and the working future we will

:40:30. > :40:33.have to gather, showing there is another Europe which is possible,

:40:34. > :40:44.and not this one, which is from the United States to Brussels.

:40:45. > :40:51.There was less gap on the Sound 50 years ago between France and England

:40:52. > :40:57.than there is today! Let's have a little look. You will see hundreds

:40:58. > :41:02.of these local authorities results tonight but this might stick in your

:41:03. > :41:04.head. We know there is a parliamentary by`election here so

:41:05. > :41:09.this local authority has been closely watched for signs of which

:41:10. > :41:16.where that might go. UKIP are standing, Roger Helmer in Newark. If

:41:17. > :41:21.this is any indication of what will happen at a Westminster level, then

:41:22. > :41:27.UKIP on 33% share of the vote, up 17%, should be feeling rather

:41:28. > :41:32.confident about their chances. The Conservatives on 31%, down slightly

:41:33. > :41:37.and Labour just pushing up. A different voting system, but just

:41:38. > :41:41.keep it in the back of your mind as you think ahead.

:41:42. > :41:45.You wanted to say something, Peter? Nick Robinson was saying that Labour

:41:46. > :41:50.and the Tories ran a close race for second place. I do not think that is

:41:51. > :41:54.right. UKIP are going to win overall tonight. Those early predictions are

:41:55. > :41:58.before we have had any big conurbations. We have got Leeds,

:41:59. > :42:05.Birmingham and Newcastle and in every case Labour have got bigger

:42:06. > :42:08.votes than in the early declarations. We have yet to get

:42:09. > :42:14.London, where we think Labour will do well and UKIP badly if the local

:42:15. > :42:19.elections are a guide. In Scotland, we have got our first result from

:42:20. > :42:24.Aberdeen. Labour is not by a lot, SNP down not a lot, but perhaps that

:42:25. > :42:28.will be another scrap. The final scrap, it is possible that the

:42:29. > :42:36.Greens will beat the Liberals into fourth place. They will get seven or

:42:37. > :42:42.8%, a little boxing match down for fourth and fifth place.

:42:43. > :42:47.Harriet Harman joins us. Do you have any inkling yet where you are going

:42:48. > :42:53.to companies European elections? No, because as you have just heard, a

:42:54. > :42:58.small number have been announced. I hope we will have a substantial

:42:59. > :43:04.increase in our share of the vote from 2009. I do hope, also, that we

:43:05. > :43:09.will, head of the Conservatives. I also hope that we have

:43:10. > :43:14.representation from MEPs in all regions. That is very important for

:43:15. > :43:18.Ed Miliband's one nation approach. The Tories have no members of the

:43:19. > :43:22.European Parliament from the north`east. The other thing I am

:43:23. > :43:27.hoping for is that we will have no UK BNP members of the European

:43:28. > :43:31.Parliament. When you say you hope you will come second, it sounds as

:43:32. > :43:36.though you are not absolutely confident that you will come second?

:43:37. > :43:40.I am not a soothsayer. I am just thing I hope we will, head of the

:43:41. > :43:45.Tories. That is just important for us, as well as increasing our

:43:46. > :43:48.share. We will have to see as the results come in. What is your

:43:49. > :43:53.impression of the way this European campaign was fought? We have heard

:43:54. > :44:00.rumblings of a kind about all party leaders since the local elections.

:44:01. > :44:06.Are you discomfited by the way things went other local elections?

:44:07. > :44:09.In the local elections, we have massively increased the number of

:44:10. > :44:13.councillors. At the same time as people were sent to me on the

:44:14. > :44:17.doorstep, yes, I will vote for your council candidate they were saying,

:44:18. > :44:23.but we will vote UKIP for the European elections because we need a

:44:24. > :44:29.shake`up. UKIP have been the symptoms, if you like, of people's

:44:30. > :44:33.disaffection with politics and they are using their vote in the European

:44:34. > :44:38.Parliament re`elections to express their dissatisfaction with politics

:44:39. > :44:41.and we have to respond to that and listen to their concerns, especially

:44:42. > :44:47.making sure that they feel there is a sense of fairness for them and a

:44:48. > :44:51.prospect in the future for them against a background of immigration.

:44:52. > :44:54.Is there then a parallel between what has happened in France and what

:44:55. > :45:01.appears to be happening here in Britain? The rise of the Front

:45:02. > :45:06.National, I am not conflating the two, but the feeling that everything

:45:07. > :45:12.has gone wrong in France, with the rise of UKIP ear? We have got a

:45:13. > :45:17.different political background. The rupture that there was between

:45:18. > :45:22.politics and people through the MPs' expenses, there is a lot of

:45:23. > :45:25.disaffection around that. People feel they have a struggle to make

:45:26. > :45:29.ends meet and they are being told the recovery is happening, but

:45:30. > :45:32.people feel they are not getting better off and they are feeling

:45:33. > :45:40.concerned about that. I think they have taken this European election as

:45:41. > :45:44.the opportunity to write it down, to give you a shake`up. I think people

:45:45. > :45:47.are entitled to have confidence in their democratic and political

:45:48. > :45:55.system and not to feel that nobody is taking their concerns into

:45:56. > :46:01.account. Editor Davey also joins us from our studio in Westminster `` Ed

:46:02. > :46:04.Davey. You had a pretty rough time in Kingston with the Conservatives

:46:05. > :46:09.taking control of the council. Are you worried about keeping your own

:46:10. > :46:14.seat at the general election? When I got elected in 1997 it was only by

:46:15. > :46:19.56 votes, and I've never been complacent. Whether we had one on

:46:20. > :46:24.Thursday night or lost, I will be working hard to my constituents as I

:46:25. > :46:27.think all MPs should do. These have been disappointing results and it

:46:28. > :46:30.looks like it will be a disappointing night for us, but that

:46:31. > :46:34.is the expectation given the polls. I am just proud we fought a positive

:46:35. > :46:40.campaign and make the case for Europe. Nick Clegg, leading from the

:46:41. > :46:43.front, taking on the Eurosceptics. It might not have worked just yet.

:46:44. > :46:47.This is the beginning of the argument, but it is vital the

:46:48. > :46:52.argument is made and I'm delighted am pleased that it is the Liberal

:46:53. > :46:57.Democrats making it. But if it is an argument that is rejected, then

:46:58. > :47:03.what? All mainstream parties now have do help make the argument. I'm

:47:04. > :47:06.afraid David Cameron and Ed Miliband were absent from the field of play

:47:07. > :47:09.and were not prepared to make the positive case for Britain in Europe,

:47:10. > :47:14.even though it is vital for the economy and vital to tackle

:47:15. > :47:18.international organised crime and to tackle international pollution. We

:47:19. > :47:22.have to work with other countries. Many of the problems facing our

:47:23. > :47:26.people are international by their nature. If you don't work with other

:47:27. > :47:33.countries, you can't tackle them. We need to make the case. It's a

:47:34. > :47:36.difficult one. A positive case in Britain has been made for so long

:47:37. > :47:40.but that's why important that Nick Clegg made it. What you say to the

:47:41. > :47:43.critics in the Liberal Democrat party that say the positive case for

:47:44. > :47:48.the doom `` Liberal Democrats is not made by leader. There have been

:47:49. > :47:52.complaints and a lot of supporters signing thing saying that the person

:47:53. > :48:00.who could get a fair hearing for it is not you, as the loss of so many

:48:01. > :48:04.councillors demonstrates. Not you, but Nick Clegg. Bacca yellow I

:48:05. > :48:07.understand what you're saying. I understand that after people have

:48:08. > :48:10.been working hard in their communities and people represented

:48:11. > :48:14.as councillors for years in some cases who have lost at the

:48:15. > :48:20.elections, of course, people will be disappointed. We should celebrate

:48:21. > :48:24.the work they have done but if you look at the number of people who

:48:25. > :48:28.signed the letter, it's about 250, some of whom aren't even members of

:48:29. > :48:37.the party. There are 44,000 members we have now, so this is not to be

:48:38. > :48:42.taken too seriously. If you look what MPs and council leaders are

:48:43. > :48:49.saying, they are solidly behind Nick Clegg. He will leaders into the next

:48:50. > :48:53.election and beyond. That might be changed by the result you get a

:48:54. > :48:56.night. We hear from the South West region that you've been voted down

:48:57. > :49:01.7% and you are running in fifth, which means the one MEP you have in

:49:02. > :49:05.the region, Graham Watson, is likely to lose his seat. That is pretty

:49:06. > :49:09.grim. Your stronghold of the South West when you fought on the issue of

:49:10. > :49:16.Europe, and you can't retain an MEP, if that is confirmed. I think you

:49:17. > :49:19.were saying before the election is that it was going to be a difficult

:49:20. > :49:24.night for us and those expectations have been confirmed, but if you look

:49:25. > :49:31.at the local elections where we hold seats, even including my own, but in

:49:32. > :49:35.lots of seats with places like Eastleigh and Cheltenham and other

:49:36. > :49:39.places where there are MPs working hard and counsellors working hard,

:49:40. > :49:42.we have shown we can still win in those seats. And if you look at some

:49:43. > :49:47.of the predictions from the results and what it means for the next

:49:48. > :49:51.election we still see a number of Liberal Democrat MPs returning. It's

:49:52. > :49:55.very important we retain discipline and focus our minds on the key

:49:56. > :50:00.battles ahead. We have important arguments to make. We have to show

:50:01. > :50:03.what we've achieved in government. We've worked hard to make sure we

:50:04. > :50:06.have a stronger economy and make tough decisions, but we also have to

:50:07. > :50:11.keep a fair society in preventing the Conservatives taking us to the

:50:12. > :50:14.right. I think we played an important role in the coalition and

:50:15. > :50:19.we have to make the arguments and show what we have achieved and then

:50:20. > :50:23.we will be rewarded. Ed Davey, thank you very much. We've talked about

:50:24. > :50:28.France, but can we have a look at Germany? Let's bring on some of the

:50:29. > :50:34.globes and targets which show results from last time. You will see

:50:35. > :50:38.the proportions, somebody like Spain, you can see the proportions

:50:39. > :50:46.of the parties down at the bottom half of the circle. If I move

:50:47. > :50:48.forward to what we now have, we have Greece and we will talk in due

:50:49. > :50:52.course about Greece and the proportions there, the big story

:50:53. > :50:57.being that the main left`wing party is being pounded and held

:50:58. > :51:01.responsible for the economic crisis. And quite a lot of results from

:51:02. > :51:11.northern Europe. We're going to talk about Germany and looking up: Back

:51:12. > :51:19.here, you see the dark blue. That is the group we were talking about

:51:20. > :51:25.which will join David Cameron. The governing party is being punished.

:51:26. > :51:29.What Germany? Let's bring up some of the results in that country and see

:51:30. > :51:34.what is happening. It's the two leading parties in the grand

:51:35. > :51:38.coalition, the Christian Democrats and the social Democrats, the

:51:39. > :51:41.left`wing party. Angela Merkel's party is down a bit, the others up,

:51:42. > :51:46.but essentially this looks like the vote for the status quo in Germany

:51:47. > :51:54.with one important rider. You can see that the alternative vote on 7%,

:51:55. > :52:02.that is actually a new German Eurosceptic grouping and they have

:52:03. > :52:08.come from absolutely nowhere, up 7%. Let's have a look at the seats for

:52:09. > :52:18.the parties. You can see again, it is a great reinforcement of Angela

:52:19. > :52:22.Merkel. Angela Merkel was in coalition with the FTP, who are

:52:23. > :52:26.amongst the others, getting pounded again in the election. A number of

:52:27. > :52:30.local issues but also being punished for being a junior partner in the

:52:31. > :52:36.coalition, not a pleasant place to be. The Greens, seven `` 11, and the

:52:37. > :52:44.alternative, up to seven. Even Germany one of the most Euro

:52:45. > :52:48.enthusiastic countries has a party there which is selling

:52:49. > :52:53.Euroscepticism effectively. What do you make of the German figures,

:52:54. > :52:57.Sara? One thing worth looking at is that the junior coalition partner

:52:58. > :53:02.have had a good night. They were hoping for a good night with one of

:53:03. > :53:11.the top candidates for the post of European president who has been

:53:12. > :53:15.campaigning. It's a shoe have worked. The other thing as Germany

:53:16. > :53:22.were saying is that it's the first time we've had a Eurosceptic party

:53:23. > :53:26.`` it seems to have worked. And just a final thing which has a strong

:53:27. > :53:29.parallel with the UK is that the Liberals, you did not even see them

:53:30. > :53:33.on the results board because they are not getting enough votes. The

:53:34. > :53:37.Liberals in Germany are having a bad night and that is something we are

:53:38. > :53:41.seeing across Europe, that the liberal group, used to be the

:53:42. > :53:47.kingmakers, they are not having a good night. Andrew, to what extent

:53:48. > :53:53.is what's happening in France and Germany consequence of the way the

:53:54. > :53:59.European economy has gone. We know it is in a turbulent state. Have the

:54:00. > :54:07.voters sussed this out and decided against control from the centre? The

:54:08. > :54:12.context is transformed from 2009, no one had heard of the term Eurozone

:54:13. > :54:15.crisis. That is something that happened since the last elections.

:54:16. > :54:23.In Germany there has been a relative stagnation. They know unemployment

:54:24. > :54:29.is low and there is no deficit, but the economy has not been going gang

:54:30. > :54:37.Buster, and in France, they have the sense that the euro project, which

:54:38. > :54:43.is associated with austerity and the burden of looking that `` looking at

:54:44. > :54:48.that seems to be resented. There is resentment of that in Germany as

:54:49. > :54:52.well. There is a bit of a signal that there might be a line out there

:54:53. > :54:57.that he would not want to cross in terms of the Franco German axis.

:54:58. > :55:03.It's not any kind of threat, politically, but it might be a bit

:55:04. > :55:07.of a signal that it's the kind of concern during a Eurozone crisis

:55:08. > :55:10.that constrain some actions. Angela Merkel didn't think she had full

:55:11. > :55:14.freedom to do what she liked. She was aware of the possibility of

:55:15. > :55:22.stirring up the sentiments. We see a bit of it, but not too much yet.

:55:23. > :55:25.Emily has an interesting result. Doncaster, a dagger in the hard for

:55:26. > :55:33.the Labour leader, seeing that UKIP have picked Labour to the post `` a

:55:34. > :55:38.dagger in the heart. Gains for Labour, up 12%, but the headline

:55:39. > :55:44.there is that Doncaster has gone for UKIP in terms of the share of the

:55:45. > :55:50.vote. You have a quick reflection for us on Scotland. The SNP won

:55:51. > :55:55.narrowly last time, but Labour should come top in Scotland. You

:55:56. > :56:02.came up in Scotland and maybe enough to get the first UK MEP in Scotland.

:56:03. > :56:06.Labour are doing how? Looks like they are going up for five points,

:56:07. > :56:10.the SNP down one or two points, enough to put Labour into first

:56:11. > :56:15.place. By a lot but given what has happened in Scotland, symbolically,

:56:16. > :56:18.that is important. Very significant because the polls would have you see

:56:19. > :56:22.Alex Salmond and the SNP gaining a lot, so if they happened, could you

:56:23. > :56:26.read across? They are different polls, not the same question, but

:56:27. > :56:32.people will. The thing about these elections, so many voters don't care

:56:33. > :56:39.who the MEP is, they look at who is up and down and who is in and is

:56:40. > :56:42.out. We will join BBC One in a few moments, so if you are watching this

:56:43. > :56:49.on the BBC News Channel, stay with us. We will be here again. And we

:56:50. > :56:52.will give BBC One viewers their first taste of what has happened in

:56:53. > :56:56.the fascinating results we have got through the rise of the Le Pen in

:56:57. > :57:05.France, the things happening in Germany, and UKIP looking set to get

:57:06. > :57:07.top of the pole in the UK, and maybe in Scotland, if we get that. Join us

:57:08. > :57:14.again. The weather is going to be very

:57:15. > :57:17.changeable tomorrow, so what you have in the morning is not

:57:18. > :57:22.necessarily what you will have in the afternoon. As far as Sunday was

:57:23. > :57:26.concerned, a bit more defined, so the weather was fine across the

:57:27. > :57:29.Midlands, East Anglia, the Southeast, where as many western

:57:30. > :57:32.parts of the country had shower after shower and some heavy

:57:33. > :57:36.downpours in places with thunder and lightning. First thing on Monday

:57:37. > :57:37.morning,