Europe - Part 2

:00:00. > :00:35.Hello and welcome to the BBC's election Centre. At ten o'clock when

:00:36. > :00:39.the polls closed across Europe the first results in the 2014 European

:00:40. > :00:46.Parliament elections started to come in. We were not able to say anything

:00:47. > :00:53.before for fear of going to jail. Our analysts will be analysing the

:00:54. > :00:56.results coming in. Our political editor and political and economic

:00:57. > :01:01.experts will give their views of what can be read and what can change

:01:02. > :01:06.because of this. Emily make this will break down the votes region by

:01:07. > :01:11.region. Jeremy Vine is here with us to fill in the picture of what is

:01:12. > :01:18.going on in the EU as a whole. As far as Britain goes, we have results

:01:19. > :01:23.from two British regions, the North East and the East of England. It

:01:24. > :01:30.looks as though UKIP is on their way to top the polls. At the moment they

:01:31. > :01:33.have four MEPs, Labour and Conservatives on three each and the

:01:34. > :01:40.Liberal Democrats have none. In Europe we have seen a rising tide of

:01:41. > :01:44.Euroscepticism, in particular in France where the National Front, the

:01:45. > :01:51.party that UKIP will have nothing to do with, has come top of the poll.

:01:52. > :01:54.It won the election in France to the great discomfort of the president

:01:55. > :01:59.who is holding a special Cabinet meeting tomorrow to discuss it.

:02:00. > :02:03.Let's have a look at what we have got in. Can you take us through

:02:04. > :02:09.where we are at the moment. We have had two of the four regions

:02:10. > :02:15.and we have heard partial results across Great Britain. This is the

:02:16. > :02:21.scoreboard with 150 declared. We are one third of the way through. UKIP

:02:22. > :02:29.is at the top on a 29% share of the vote. Labour are in second place, up

:02:30. > :02:34.8%. The Conservatives are slightly falling. They were top last time

:02:35. > :02:41.round. The Green Party is ahead of the Liberal Democrats. In Scotland

:02:42. > :02:49.it is interesting. We have only got a few of the results. The SNP are at

:02:50. > :02:54.the top on 29%. They are holding the vote, but they are not making

:02:55. > :03:00.gains. Labour is pushing up slightly, but they are behind the

:03:01. > :03:05.SNP. That battle will be closely watched for any signal ahead of the

:03:06. > :03:12.referendum in September. UKIP I'm making fourth place. This is Wales

:03:13. > :03:21.and Labour is in first place. UKIP are just behind them in second

:03:22. > :03:25.place. The Conservatives had a surprise victory in Wales last time

:03:26. > :03:36.around at the top and now they are down to third place.

:03:37. > :03:44.You said we were halfway through? 150 are in and we have got about 380

:03:45. > :03:48.altogether. Just over one third. We get the European vote counted in

:03:49. > :03:53.authorities. They send them to the centre of a region and then the

:03:54. > :03:59.proportional representation system allocates the seeds. We get a

:04:00. > :04:03.picture of the popular vote coming through from Emily, but later on as

:04:04. > :04:11.we get region by region we will see how many MEPs come through. Let's

:04:12. > :04:15.have a look at Europe. On this map we have these globes and

:04:16. > :04:22.circles and this is the result in 2009. Broken down at the bottom of

:04:23. > :04:26.the circle are the proportions of the parties and the groupings inside

:04:27. > :04:40.the European Parliament. We are now getting some results. This is

:04:41. > :04:45.Greece. The key thing to note is the red colour was the main, status quo,

:04:46. > :04:53.left-wing party. They have been completely hammered and it is the

:04:54. > :04:58.hard left piety which has done really well in these elections. It

:04:59. > :05:02.is just underscoring that story of an election where the traditional

:05:03. > :05:11.parties in lots of countries, not all, are getting badly hit by the

:05:12. > :05:18.voters. France is a classical example of this. You can see the

:05:19. > :05:22.proportions on the lower edge of the circle. The grey is the National

:05:23. > :05:30.Front. Look at how well they have done. You will see the proportions

:05:31. > :05:41.and what a victory it is for the National Front. They are up 19%.

:05:42. > :05:51.This is a sensational result in France, quite extraordinary. The

:05:52. > :06:02.Socialists, the governing party, are 15% down. The real news from France

:06:03. > :06:13.is that the figure of 25%. We can see what that translating into

:06:14. > :06:21.proportional representation is. Just to reinforce the scale of this

:06:22. > :06:25.victory, they are up 21 seats. They are pushing the main parties into

:06:26. > :06:32.second and third place. Let's have a look at the Greek percentages. This

:06:33. > :06:35.also tells an interesting story. Greece is really hurting in the

:06:36. > :06:41.banking crisis and the recession. They are not out of it yet. Their

:06:42. > :06:49.economic figures are amongst the worst in Europe. This is

:06:50. > :06:55.sensational. They now lead from almost nothing. The second party is

:06:56. > :07:01.a traditional party, a more right-wing party. They are not being

:07:02. > :07:20.blamed for the economic crisis. The river is a new grouping of

:07:21. > :07:26.different people with mixed ideologies. This shows how

:07:27. > :07:46.fragmented the economic crisis has made group politics in Greece.

:07:47. > :07:53.Golden Dawn are on the hard right. The lesson is where the economic

:07:54. > :08:03.consequences have been awful, the political consequences for their

:08:04. > :08:10.part for the traditional parties are bad as well. We can speak to Megan

:08:11. > :08:14.Green. What do you think is happening in Greece that has led to

:08:15. > :08:20.the rise of both sides at the centre. What is surprising is the

:08:21. > :08:24.far left piety has not done better given the scale of the economic

:08:25. > :08:30.recession over the past couple of years. It is important it only came

:08:31. > :08:38.a few percentage points ahead of new democracy, the biggest party in the

:08:39. > :08:54.Government. It could have sparked a snap elections. I will come back and

:08:55. > :08:59.talk about that again in a moment. We can speak to the chairman of the

:09:00. > :09:02.Conservative Party who has been patiently waiting in Westminster.

:09:03. > :09:09.What do you make of the news you have said so far? You may appeared

:09:10. > :09:15.to be doing better at this moment then you will once the London

:09:16. > :09:19.results come in. This will be a very significant, tough set of elections

:09:20. > :09:24.where people are sending a pretty clear message. They do not like the

:09:25. > :09:27.way Europe feels so remote, they do not think it works in Britain's

:09:28. > :09:34.interest and they are sending a strong message and across Europe as

:09:35. > :09:38.you have just been saying. It is a command for Britain to get a better

:09:39. > :09:42.deal, which is why we want to renegotiate with Europe.

:09:43. > :09:47.Conservatives want to put that to an in and out referendum. We did not

:09:48. > :09:52.get that legislation through the Parliament just finished. We are

:09:53. > :09:59.about to introduce the bill in the next session and I hope the other

:10:00. > :10:03.parties will back us this time. The powerful backbencher who challenged

:10:04. > :10:08.David Cameron for the leadership of the Conservative Party, David Davis,

:10:09. > :10:14.says the right thing to do is to abandon this 2017 referendum and say

:10:15. > :10:18.you will have it come what may in 2016. It becomes a firm guarantee to

:10:19. > :10:25.the voter that the Conservatives will have a referendum. Whatever

:10:26. > :10:30.side you are on, there is no doubt at all our relationship with Europe

:10:31. > :10:36.is very complex and it involves jobs and job security because companies

:10:37. > :10:42.export or import. You cannot rush and negotiation of that type. To

:10:43. > :10:49.have it in 2017 two years after the general election is a reasonable

:10:50. > :10:55.thing to do. I do think it is important to get that renegotiation

:10:56. > :10:59.right. By the way, tonight's elections show something else.

:11:00. > :11:04.People are fed up and they want to see more action, particularly with

:11:05. > :11:09.our relations with Europe. But what is interesting is this big gap in

:11:10. > :11:13.the way people voted in the local elections where the Conservative

:11:14. > :11:18.share went up, and the way they have voted in the European elections.

:11:19. > :11:23.UKIP said this would be a free hit election and I guess people may well

:11:24. > :11:28.have responded to that, but in a year's time, it is certainly

:11:29. > :11:32.anything but a free hit. How we finished off the job of this

:11:33. > :11:37.recovery, the fastest growth in Europe, making sure everyone feels

:11:38. > :11:42.the benefit of that, people are getting more security, that is a big

:11:43. > :11:47.and a serious question. You cannot read much between the results

:11:48. > :11:54.tonight and the general election. Nick Robinson has a question.

:11:55. > :11:58.You are saying this is a significant set of results, but you are saying

:11:59. > :12:06.the country is telling you to carry on doing what you are going to do.

:12:07. > :12:08.Maybe they say they do not like the renegotiation and they want

:12:09. > :12:14.something much more serious in terms of standing up to Europe. It is

:12:15. > :12:18.clear people want a choice. You cannot get more serious than giving

:12:19. > :12:24.people a referendum of in or out and it is what we are pledging. If it

:12:25. > :12:30.was so convincing, why are people not voting for it? Are you not in

:12:31. > :12:33.danger of doing what politicians do and say, I am listening to the

:12:34. > :12:39.people and they are telling me to carry on doing the policies I was

:12:40. > :12:46.doing last week? Of course it is serious. We must listen to what is

:12:47. > :12:52.being said. It is clear people want a say on Europe. If you are somebody

:12:53. > :12:56.my age, somebody who was not able to vote in the 70s, you have never had

:12:57. > :13:05.a say on Europe. You cannot get a more significant say than an in and

:13:06. > :13:10.out referendum. Labour and the Lib Dems will vote against having that

:13:11. > :13:14.say. UKIP admit they cannot deliver. You are only going to get a

:13:15. > :13:22.referendum by voting Conservative in a year's time. Would you vote out?

:13:23. > :13:27.We want to give everybody the child on how they vote, but I am confident

:13:28. > :13:33.we can get what we need in terms of Britain's relationship with Europe

:13:34. > :13:36.and that means powers decided from home and Westminster. It means an

:13:37. > :13:40.end to this ever closer union and the presumption that you can only

:13:41. > :13:45.move in one direction with those powers. It means doing things here

:13:46. > :13:50.that can be done here and sharing where we need to on trade and the

:13:51. > :13:54.environment and not thinking Europe has the answer to everything. You

:13:55. > :14:00.are not saying if we don't get the deal we want, I will vote for

:14:01. > :14:05.Britain to come out? I am convinced we are going to have the deal we

:14:06. > :14:09.want because people never believed we would get the rebate back and we

:14:10. > :14:14.did. People never believed we would cut the budget and we did. People

:14:15. > :14:20.believed we would never get the opportunity to veto a treaty, but we

:14:21. > :14:24.have done that. If we are re-elected and David Cameron is Prime Minister,

:14:25. > :14:29.not only will we have that referendum, but we were also get a

:14:30. > :14:38.decent deal. Then it will be up to you and your viewers to decide how

:14:39. > :14:47.they want to vote. Give us your view of what is happening in Britain. We

:14:48. > :14:50.are seeing two contests. One is standard between Labour and

:14:51. > :14:55.Conservative, which Labour seems to be pimping the Conservatives at the

:14:56. > :15:00.post, but not doing as well as they would have hoped. That is a contest

:15:01. > :15:05.about what kind of Europe or a Britain that you would like. But the

:15:06. > :15:10.second contest between UKIP and the rest is whether you want Europe at

:15:11. > :15:13.all and given that UKIP is winning that direction, it seems that

:15:14. > :15:18.Britain is moving in a Eurosceptic direction. The Conservative Party

:15:19. > :15:28.will be moved even further in that direction. Let's go over to

:15:29. > :15:33.Kettering. On the 22nd of May, 2014, I hereby give notice that the number

:15:34. > :15:50.of votes recorded for each registered party is as follows: An

:15:51. > :16:05.Independence From Europe, 21,384. British National Party. 18,326.

:16:06. > :16:14.Conservative Party, excuse me, I think I see an error. I do indeed

:16:15. > :16:29.see an error. The Conservative Party, 368 thousand 734. Excuse me,

:16:30. > :16:38.that is UKIP. I will start again. Independence from Europe, 21,384.

:16:39. > :16:49.British National Party, 18,326. Conservative Party to hundred and

:16:50. > :17:06.91,270. English Democrats, 11,612. Green Party, 67,066. Harmony party,

:17:07. > :17:23.2194. Labour Party, 279,363. Liberal Democrats, 60,773. UK Independence

:17:24. > :17:31.party, 368,734. The number of votes for each party

:17:32. > :17:36.had, after the application of subsections five and nine of section

:17:37. > :17:51.two 2000 act were as follows. Seat one, UK Independence party, 368,734.

:17:52. > :18:03.Roger Helmer. Seat number two, Conservative Party. 291,270, Emma

:18:04. > :18:15.McClarkin. See number three, the Labour Party. 279,363, Dennis

:18:16. > :18:28.Wilmot. -- Glenys will not. UK Independence party, 184,367, Margot

:18:29. > :18:39.Parker. C five, Conservative Party, 145,000 635, Andrea Iannone Luella.

:18:40. > :18:48.So the Liberal Democrats lose their seat in the East Midlands. Roger

:18:49. > :18:55.Helmer, also the candidate in the Newark via election in a few weeks,

:18:56. > :19:08.is the lead MEP for UKIP in the East Midlands. I would like to thank all

:19:09. > :19:13.those who have assisted in this campaign. I would like to thank UKIP

:19:14. > :19:19.party members, supporters and especially my colleagues on the

:19:20. > :19:26.campaign team. Can I say how delighted I personally am we shall

:19:27. > :19:35.be welcoming Parker as the second UKIP MEP in Brussels. I must also

:19:36. > :19:41.thank my staff in Brussels who managed to keep the show on the road

:19:42. > :19:45.well I have been busy campaigning. And a special word of thanks to Paul

:19:46. > :19:53.Oakton, who has been our election agent and has done an extremely fine

:19:54. > :20:00.job. I should also like to thank Emma McClarkin and Glenis Willmott,

:20:01. > :20:09.who have been very courteous and civilised campaigners and I think we

:20:10. > :20:16.have had a good campaign. A final look at the rise in the UKIP vote,

:20:17. > :20:26.up 16% and the fall of the Liberal Democrats, 17%. Labour up 8%. Emily,

:20:27. > :20:31.can you show us England and UKIP? This is the scoreboard for Great

:20:32. > :20:38.Britain. Particularly the Liberal Democrats, if you can. You have to

:20:39. > :20:47.look quite far down to find them. Down 7%. Tim Farron joins us.

:20:48. > :20:52.President of the Liberal Democrats, from Manchester. Thank you for

:20:53. > :21:00.coming in. It is looking and nightmare for you, isn't it? It is

:21:01. > :21:09.looking as bad as I had feared. I am getting a lot of echo back on the

:21:10. > :21:15.line. I will take this out. Just keep talking, is my advice. I will

:21:16. > :21:21.do that, and somebody will wave at me when you need me to listen to

:21:22. > :21:26.you. It is as bad as I feared and I hoped it would be better. We are in

:21:27. > :21:31.a situation where in the Northwest we don't expect to have held the

:21:32. > :21:38.seat here. The Liberal Democrats, what ever we end up recording in

:21:39. > :21:43.terms of our numbers of seats, we fought a campaign which I am

:21:44. > :21:50.extremely proud of. Nick Laird has fought and led the campaign bravely.

:21:51. > :21:52.The only party who stood up to UKIP and their threat to British

:21:53. > :21:59.traditional values of tolerance and diversity. Somebody had to do that.

:22:00. > :22:03.Neither the Labour Party or the Tories had the back home to stand up

:22:04. > :22:07.to UKIP. We took the popular side of an argument and we have been

:22:08. > :22:12.punished, but I would do it all over again. I think we will come back to

:22:13. > :22:22.you when we have the line sorted out. It is too difficult. Let's have

:22:23. > :22:28.a look at Scotland coming in, Emily. I think you will be speaking to Alex

:22:29. > :22:35.Salmond in a second. We have the SNP at the top on 29%. In this column

:22:36. > :22:39.they are not gaining, zero in terms of any gains. If you are looking for

:22:40. > :22:49.a surge ahead, it is not happening so far. Labour on 26% and up

:22:50. > :22:55.slightly, 5%. If you come down this list, UKIP have made some gains.

:22:56. > :22:59.They are on 10%. There is a chance at this stage they could deliver a

:23:00. > :23:06.seat for UKIP in Scotland. Very tentative. Not enough results in for

:23:07. > :23:09.that to be certain. We are joined by Alex Salmond, First Minister of

:23:10. > :23:18.Scotland who is speaking to us from Aberdeen. The picture here seems to

:23:19. > :23:23.be the SNP are not moving ahead, Labour is in second place and UKIP

:23:24. > :23:31.may have an MEP. That would be a surprise? First, we are exactly

:23:32. > :23:36.where we were five years ago when these elections were contested. We

:23:37. > :23:40.went on from these elections five years ago to win a landslide in the

:23:41. > :23:45.Scottish Parliament election. After seven years in government, it looks

:23:46. > :23:51.like we will win yet another election in Scotland. I don't think

:23:52. > :23:54.that is too bad. As far as UKIP is concerned, your correspondent is

:23:55. > :24:00.right. It is whether they get a third seat out of six will stop it

:24:01. > :24:03.seems like a world of difference from the results I am hearing in

:24:04. > :24:09.England where UKIP seem to be topping the polls. I would like you

:24:10. > :24:15.to hear from our resident expert in all of this from Strathclyde, who

:24:16. > :24:25.you will know well. John Curtis. This is his view. I think he might

:24:26. > :24:30.want to blame the opinion polls, but they are telling us the SNP were

:24:31. > :24:34.telling us they would get 3637. But they are doing no more than holding

:24:35. > :24:41.their vote share. As a result of the SNP doing no more of holding their

:24:42. > :24:45.vote share of 2009, 20 9%, short of the 45% they got in the Holyrood

:24:46. > :24:51.election in 2011, UKIP looked like they are in with a chance. Tomorrow

:24:52. > :24:55.morning, rather than saying his party has demonstrated it is

:24:56. > :24:59.marching across Scotland, and Scotland is different from England,

:25:00. > :25:06.that message is going to be much more tempered because the truth is,

:25:07. > :25:10.it may be the case UKIP as a representative in Scotland as well

:25:11. > :25:16.as in the rest of the UK. Yes, but there is a world of difference in

:25:17. > :25:20.coming forth if UKIP manage that in Scotland and coming top of the poll

:25:21. > :25:25.in England. There is a difference between a party seven years into

:25:26. > :25:28.government, which looks like is going to win another national

:25:29. > :25:36.election and parties in government in England, that cannot win a

:25:37. > :25:41.European election. I hope we managed to freeze UKIP out of Scotland, but

:25:42. > :25:47.appreciate there is a difference of a party getting under 10% of the

:25:48. > :25:55.vote in Scotland and over 30% in England. I know you are teasing,

:25:56. > :25:58.John, I know you don't mean it. You did win a large part of your

:25:59. > :26:03.campaign on the basis of vote for the SNP so we get the third seat to

:26:04. > :26:11.keep UKIP out. There is a question as to whether that campaign has

:26:12. > :26:18.succeeded. Can I say how difficult it is to stop a party getting a

:26:19. > :26:21.foothold. We have been doing an analysis of BBC broadcasting in

:26:22. > :26:27.Scotland over this month. There have been four times as many road casts

:26:28. > :26:35.about UKIP than the SNP. Star Trek used to have a phrase, been me up

:26:36. > :26:40.Scotty. UKIP is a party that gets beamed into Scotland courtesy of the

:26:41. > :26:45.BBC. The difference we are seeing north and south of the border is

:26:46. > :26:51.very instructive. I hope we can get these last few votes out of the

:26:52. > :26:55.remaining declaration in order to freeze UKIP bout of Scottish

:26:56. > :27:00.politics. I don't want to spend the next few months and years arguing

:27:01. > :27:06.over who are good Romanians and bad Romanians, which is regressive

:27:07. > :27:15.politics and part of the baggage from the UKIP. All complaints to BBC

:27:16. > :27:20.Glasgow, I think? Glasgow does not have much say in the matter, David.

:27:21. > :27:32.That is one of the complaints. Noted. Let's get a declaration from

:27:33. > :27:37.Leeds. Yorkshire and the Humber. Thanks very much to the counting

:27:38. > :27:43.staff over 21 councils. I am the regional returning officer in the

:27:44. > :27:49.Yorkshire and the Humber region, held on the 22nd of May 2014,

:27:50. > :27:54.declare the number of votes for each party was as follows. An

:27:55. > :28:03.Independence From Europe, 24,297, edition National party, 20,138,

:28:04. > :28:16.Conservative Party 248 945. English Democrats, 13,288. Green Party,

:28:17. > :28:25.102,282. Labour Party, 380,189. Liberal Democrats 180,108. No to EU

:28:26. > :28:34.300,000. UK Independence party, UKIP, 403,000 630. Yorkshire first,

:28:35. > :28:37.19,017. I declare the following candidates have been elected for the

:28:38. > :28:45.Yorkshire and Humber electoral region. Jane Maria Collins, UK

:28:46. > :28:58.Independence party, UKIP. Linda Maca van, Labour Party. Timothy Kirkhope,

:28:59. > :29:13.Conservative Party. Amjad Bashir, UKIP. Richard Corbett, the Labour

:29:14. > :29:19.Party. Mike Hook, UK Independence party, UKIP. I would just like to

:29:20. > :29:26.invite one representative of each of the successful parties to say

:29:27. > :29:33.something briefly to you. So, UKIP get the three seats out of the six

:29:34. > :29:44.MEPs in Yorkshire. They hold three of the seats, up two on 2009. UKIP

:29:45. > :29:55.up two, Labour up one and the Conservatives down one and Liberal

:29:56. > :29:59.Democrats down one. Now we have a declaration from Poole, the

:30:00. > :30:05.south-west region. You get a declaration of course from all of

:30:06. > :30:08.the parties, some small ones who have a handful of votes but they do

:30:09. > :30:13.them all before they do the allocation. The three Conservatives

:30:14. > :30:18.in the south-west had won the broader democratic and two UKIP at

:30:19. > :30:40.the last count. There were rumours the Lib might lose his seat. So that

:30:41. > :30:45.was six in the south-west. some of the Liberal Democrats are saying

:30:46. > :30:51.they might end up with none. If he loses here, it will be a sign they

:30:52. > :30:56.are struggling to get any representation in the European

:30:57. > :31:04.Parliament atoll. You would assume three Conservatives

:31:05. > :31:07.would stay? In the count from Yorkshire a prominent Liberal

:31:08. > :31:14.Democrat lost his seat, Edward McMillan Scott. Formerly a

:31:15. > :31:18.Conservative MEP. He switched to the Liberal Democrats and lost his seat.

:31:19. > :31:26.He was an important officeholder in the European Parliament as well.

:31:27. > :31:37.Let's go back to Tim Farron briefly. Can you now hear us? Yes, I

:31:38. > :31:47.think so. Iconic hear myself, so that is great. You can't hear

:31:48. > :31:54.yourself think or speak? Before I could hear myself speaking more than

:31:55. > :31:58.you, which was terrible. It looks possible you will have no MEPs. We

:31:59. > :32:04.do not know the result in the south-west. It would be pretty

:32:05. > :32:10.shattering if that happened. Yes, it would be that. We always suspected

:32:11. > :32:16.this could be an outcome at this election. We have done everything we

:32:17. > :32:18.can to make sure we get above nothing. Everything we have

:32:19. > :32:24.attempted has been in that direction. But we made a right to

:32:25. > :32:28.choice to do what we felt was right in this election. Over the last

:32:29. > :32:32.quarter of a century the whole debate in Europe has become more

:32:33. > :32:36.toxic when it comes to our relationship with the European

:32:37. > :32:42.Union. UKIP have been doing better over recent years largely egged on

:32:43. > :32:45.by a Tory party becoming increasingly hostile to Europe

:32:46. > :32:51.themselves. Somebody had to have the backbone to stand up against UKIP

:32:52. > :32:55.and that very learned anti-Europeanism and to take them

:32:56. > :32:59.on. Nick Clegg did so and I am proud of him and what the Liberal

:33:00. > :33:06.Democrats have achieved over this last campaign. We have taken the

:33:07. > :33:12.unpopular side of the argument which is courageous and we have got a

:33:13. > :33:19.result because of that. I have been a member of the party over the last

:33:20. > :33:22.28 years and we never give up. What do you think of the Liberal Democrat

:33:23. > :33:26.candidates in the general election who are calling Nick Clegg to stand

:33:27. > :33:35.down because the method is not getting across? The problem is the

:33:36. > :33:40.messenger, not the message. Not just the people who have lost their seats

:33:41. > :33:44.tonight, but also people who lost their seats and fought in the local

:33:45. > :33:50.elections on Thursday. I have enormous sympathy with those people.

:33:51. > :33:54.I have lost previously and it is a miserable experience. There are lots

:33:55. > :33:57.of people who find when they get on the doorstep there is the argument

:33:58. > :34:02.that we should not have got into power and we should withdraw from

:34:03. > :34:08.the coalition. Those arguments are brutal sometimes powerful, but in

:34:09. > :34:15.the end we did the right thing four years ago. We knew when we entered

:34:16. > :34:23.power in 2010... We have got a result coming in. The number of

:34:24. > :34:37.votes cast is as follows: An Independence From Europe, 23,169.

:34:38. > :34:50.British National Party, 10,910. Conservative Party, 430 3000, 151.

:34:51. > :35:10.English Democrats, 15,081. Green Party, 166000 and 447. Labour Party,

:35:11. > :35:23.200 and 124. Liberal Democrats, 160,000 376. United Kingdom

:35:24. > :35:32.Independence party, 484,184. The total number of votes rejected was

:35:33. > :35:37.4483. I hereby declared that the following candidates have been duly

:35:38. > :35:43.elected for the south-west region which includes Gibraltar. William

:35:44. > :35:58.Dartmouth, United Kingdom Independence party. Ashley Peter

:35:59. > :36:07.Fox, Conservative Party. Julia Reed, United Kingdom Independence party.

:36:08. > :36:23.Julie McCulloch Girling, Conservative Party. Claire Miranda

:36:24. > :36:32.Moody, Labour Party. And number six, Molly Scott, the Green Party. I also

:36:33. > :36:36.give notice I have prepared a statement setting out the

:36:37. > :36:51.details... Very interesting from the south-west. Two UKIP seats. The

:36:52. > :36:55.Green Party coming ahead of the Liberal Democrats in the popular

:36:56. > :36:59.vote. A collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote in their own

:37:00. > :37:04.stronghold in the south-west. Tim Farron talked about how proud he was

:37:05. > :37:09.that Nick Clegg had spoken up about Europe and it has not worked. In

:37:10. > :37:16.this region many Liberal Democrats in the outer regions in the fishing

:37:17. > :37:21.and farming community they are quite sceptical about Europe. The last

:37:22. > :37:29.thing they wanted was a leader saying, I am in favour of it. It is

:37:30. > :37:40.worth looking at the vote, up 10% for UKIP. We are seeing this in

:37:41. > :37:44.region after region. The largest rise has been quite large beyond

:37:45. > :37:48.that in other regions. At the moment they are managing to do it all over

:37:49. > :37:54.the country, whereas other parties are struggling. The Tories have lost

:37:55. > :38:00.all representation in the North East. UKIP are performing all over

:38:01. > :38:05.the country at the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens

:38:06. > :38:11.in London. A dramatically different profile as in the local elections.

:38:12. > :38:16.It is the last hope the Liberal Democrats have of holding onto a

:38:17. > :38:20.member of the European Parliament. At the moment London is three

:38:21. > :38:26.Conservatives, two labour, one Liberal Democrat, one UKIP and one

:38:27. > :38:30.green. The way this is done the Green Party gets a share over the

:38:31. > :38:37.country as a whole. They do not win many MEP seats because of the way we

:38:38. > :38:39.count it by regions. They may have quite a significant percentage and

:38:40. > :38:44.one higher than the Liberal Democrats as a whole. They have been

:38:45. > :38:49.ahead of the Liberal Democrats before in 1989 when Paddy Ashdown

:38:50. > :38:55.said he feared that new party would be wiped out. If you are a Lib Dem

:38:56. > :39:01.you can say, we are being wiped out or you can say, we have been here

:39:02. > :39:05.before and we recovered. And Paddy Ashdown he will be that election

:39:06. > :39:11.coordinator in the next general election. One signal people will be

:39:12. > :39:16.taking from this election is if you do as the Liberal Democrats do and

:39:17. > :39:20.come out for Europe, the signal is you will lose votes. That is a

:39:21. > :39:25.problem not just for them, but also the Labour Party, which is

:39:26. > :39:31.pro-European. The Greens in the south-west do not want to pull out

:39:32. > :39:36.of Europe. No, but the general lesson people will learn from this

:39:37. > :39:40.is a pro-European campaign loses U-boats and that is a problem for

:39:41. > :39:46.all the other parties and it will push them all further in the

:39:47. > :39:51.Eurosceptic direction. How do you explain the Green Party beating you

:39:52. > :39:57.in the south-west? It has a lot to do with what has just been said. The

:39:58. > :40:01.Liberal Democrats took the position they did. Great Britain is drifting

:40:02. > :40:07.towards the exit door from the European Union. That is a far

:40:08. > :40:12.greater deal in terms of what it means for the future of Britain. We

:40:13. > :40:18.did not decide to be much more clear and open about our position as an

:40:19. > :40:22.electoral tactic. We did it because it is right because the future of

:40:23. > :40:28.Britain outside the European Union is horrific. Our ability to tackle

:40:29. > :40:33.climate change, peace and security across Europe. If somebody does not

:40:34. > :40:37.have the backbone to stand up against the UKIP diatribe and the

:40:38. > :40:42.nonsense you hear through the media that says Britain is better isolated

:40:43. > :40:47.from the European Union, if somebody does not do that, we are going to

:40:48. > :40:52.drift out. The Liberals have proudly stood up. It has cost us votes, but

:40:53. > :40:58.I want to do the right thing even more than win an election. The

:40:59. > :41:09.Fishguard leisure Centre is where the Welsh vote has been counted.

:41:10. > :41:19.Being the regional returning officer for Wales, on the 22nd of May, 2014,

:41:20. > :41:29.do hereby give notice that the total number of votes recorded for each

:41:30. > :41:35.registered party is as follows: Britain first, 6633. British

:41:36. > :42:04.National Party, 7655. Conservative Party, 127,000 742. Green Party,

:42:05. > :42:18.33,275. Labour Party, 206,332. Liberal Democrats, 28,930. NO2EU,

:42:19. > :42:27.2803. Plaid Cymru, 111,864. Socialist Labour Party, 4459. The

:42:28. > :42:48.Socialist Party of Great Britain, 1384. UK Independence Party, 201,000

:42:49. > :42:51.983. I do hereby declare that the fundamental and I duly elected as

:42:52. > :43:07.the cuatro members of the said electoral region. Derek Fawn,

:43:08. > :43:24.Labour. Nathan Lee Gill, UK Independence Party. Case when Byrne,

:43:25. > :43:42.Conservative Party. Joel Evans, Plaid Cymru. -- K Swinburn.

:43:43. > :44:00.No change in the seats, but this is the change in the vote in Wales.

:44:01. > :44:11.Emily, your map of Britain, England, Wales and Scotland, is gradually

:44:12. > :44:16.showing us what is happening. I have taken you into Wales and there is no

:44:17. > :44:21.change in the seats. When you get the numbers you get the mathematics

:44:22. > :44:25.of the MEPs. But if you look at this, it shows as who has the

:44:26. > :44:33.highest share of the vote in any one Local Place. This is the border with

:44:34. > :44:36.England and it is now UKIP. Labour have retained their stronghold in

:44:37. > :44:45.the south and Plaid Cymru have retained their stronghold in the

:44:46. > :44:56.Welsh speaking part of Wales. This is 2009. This is what has happened

:44:57. > :45:02.now. This is also the South West, quite a similar picture. That

:45:03. > :45:13.parable has created an incursion from the south-west. This is what it

:45:14. > :45:19.looked like before. If I update that, you can see how much of this

:45:20. > :45:31.has got UKIP in first place as a share of the vote and the Lib Dems

:45:32. > :45:36.completely off the map. The Tories were first in Wales five years ago

:45:37. > :45:43.now they are down in third. It will be relief to them they are top in

:45:44. > :45:49.Wales once again. Let's speak to city can't, the Shadow Justice

:45:50. > :45:55.Secretary and BMP for tooting. You will be hearing these results coming

:45:56. > :46:04.in, Labour is not doing that well. -- the MP. What is important is to

:46:05. > :46:11.see how we progress, bearing in mind how bad we did in 2009. Even with

:46:12. > :46:17.Tony Blair as a leader we lost these. We came third. It is

:46:18. > :46:23.important to see us making progress but also important to see where we

:46:24. > :46:26.can make progress as well. Do you think you will be ahead of the

:46:27. > :46:32.Conservatives by the end of the night? I am not sure, but it is

:46:33. > :46:37.important we make progress and vote seems to be going up a seven, eight

:46:38. > :46:41.9%. It is important to see which parts of the country that is going

:46:42. > :46:47.up. We have a number of seats are targeting other general election. If

:46:48. > :46:53.we can make the same progress in the European elections as we did in the

:46:54. > :46:59.local elections, it will be hopeful the next year. It would be

:47:00. > :47:08.disconcerting if you did come behind the Conservatives. We will have to

:47:09. > :47:13.wait for the results. We have had lots results and you are not doing

:47:14. > :47:18.very well so far. If you look at the polls over the last few, UKIP have

:47:19. > :47:22.been top of the polls so everything is as the pollsters predict it. We

:47:23. > :47:30.have to look what will happen with the rest of the seats, including

:47:31. > :47:35.London. We did remarkably well, but not that you would know it because

:47:36. > :47:40.of the national media coverage. Everybody is complaining about their

:47:41. > :47:46.media coverage. Everyone is complaining, David. UKIP is not

:47:47. > :47:50.complaining. You said you were too quick to dismiss concerns about

:47:51. > :48:00.immigration. You have seen the power and passion about immigration that

:48:01. > :48:03.seized France with the Front Nationa, primarily about immigration

:48:04. > :48:08.and about the disintegration of the French economy, what is it Labour

:48:09. > :48:12.would offer on immigration it could offer while remaining in the EU? Are

:48:13. > :48:21.you fooling people you can do something about it? I am the son of

:48:22. > :48:28.immigrants. Immigration has been of social and economic benefit to the

:48:29. > :48:33.country. The leader of my party is a son of immigrants. If you look at

:48:34. > :48:38.some of the consequences of the pace of migration from the EU. Because we

:48:39. > :48:41.did not have transitional arrangements for the seven

:48:42. > :48:45.countries, there was a consequence in the race to the bottom. Some

:48:46. > :48:52.employers in this country were not playing -- paying the minimum

:48:53. > :48:55.national wage. And also not paying the right salaries to those who work

:48:56. > :49:00.for them. We need to tackle the consequences. Because we haven't got

:49:01. > :49:09.enough houses being built, there is a housing crisis in and around

:49:10. > :49:12.London and the south. It is not because of immigration, it is

:49:13. > :49:25.because enough houses are not being built. You cannot call anybody who

:49:26. > :49:31.talks about immigration a racist. Londoners want a solution to their

:49:32. > :49:37.concerns. We need to address the rental crisis. A policy to increase

:49:38. > :49:42.the minimum wage and policies to address what this government has

:49:43. > :49:46.done to our National Health Service. It is not pandering to racists or

:49:47. > :49:53.accepting that all immigration is wrong, it is not. Thanks for joining

:49:54. > :49:59.us. Emily, can we look at the West Midlands before I speak to Liam Fox.

:50:00. > :50:06.We haven't got a result from there yet. This is our current forecast,

:50:07. > :50:12.our prediction of what will happen to the allocation of MEPs based on

:50:13. > :50:16.the data we are going through. We predict UKIP will have three MEPs,

:50:17. > :50:21.Labour will have two, the Conservatives will have two. There

:50:22. > :50:28.was a prediction the Lib Dems will lose their seats. You will see this

:50:29. > :50:31.one figure there because it is a close race in the votes to be

:50:32. > :50:35.counted between the last seat for UKIP and labour. We think there is

:50:36. > :50:43.less than one points between those two. It may turn out Labour has

:50:44. > :50:45.three and UKIP. But on what we have got so far, this is our prediction

:50:46. > :50:55.for the West Midlands. got so far, this is our prediction

:50:56. > :51:04.for the West We are joined by Liam Fox. You have heard what David Davis

:51:05. > :51:07.said about how the Conservatives should response to the challenge

:51:08. > :51:13.from UKIP and the success of UKIP, by bringing forward this referendum

:51:14. > :51:19.a year and showing themselves more committed to it. Is that what you

:51:20. > :51:23.would like to see happen? I did not hear that, so it is news to me. I

:51:24. > :51:29.don't think it is a plausible position at this time. We have to

:51:30. > :51:32.pass legislation in the House of Commons to have a referendum. It is

:51:33. > :51:37.clear the Labour Party and Lib Dems would not allow us to do that. I

:51:38. > :51:42.don't think it is a realistic starter no matter how much people

:51:43. > :51:48.would like to see it. It is not just in the UK, but across Europe, we are

:51:49. > :51:51.seeing the citizens of Europe feel they are not being well served by

:51:52. > :51:57.the priorities of the European Union. They feel it is run by a

:51:58. > :52:04.bunch of Eurocrats who are overpaid with a bloated bureaucracy and over

:52:05. > :52:11.-- out of touch. I agree with that. We need to recognise the public in

:52:12. > :52:15.this country are very sophisticated, they know within a European election

:52:16. > :52:20.they can cast a vote without affecting what is happening in the

:52:21. > :52:25.UK Government. Parties that have been Eurosceptic have been doing

:52:26. > :52:29.well in this election and the Lib Dems are being wiped out because

:52:30. > :52:33.they said they want to stand up and be the pro-European party. It is out

:52:34. > :52:42.of step with what voters in Britain once and it is out of step with what

:52:43. > :52:46.voters across Europe once. Would you vote out the conditions the Prime

:52:47. > :52:53.Minister has promised, if the conditions were not satisfactory?

:52:54. > :52:59.Are you out or in? I would like to go back to a relationship like the,

:53:00. > :53:05.market we joined. I would like to see more of the dynamic put forward.

:53:06. > :53:09.If the choice was put forward to a closer union and leaving, then I

:53:10. > :53:12.would choose to leave. But I think the Prime Minister is right, we have

:53:13. > :53:17.to try to get a different relationship. There is a difference

:53:18. > :53:21.between Britain and most of the other European countries. We have a

:53:22. > :53:27.mainstream Eurosceptic party that could form a government. Unless the

:53:28. > :53:30.Conservatives form the next government there won't be a

:53:31. > :53:35.referendum on the European Union. Thank you very much. Nigel Farage is

:53:36. > :53:43.down at Southampton waiting for the results. That is where he is top of

:53:44. > :53:48.the list for UKIP and is certain to be top of the list anywhere, I

:53:49. > :53:54.suspect. Drinking what looks like a cup of tea rather than the usual

:53:55. > :53:58.pint. Talking to his press officer. We are joined by the Foreign

:53:59. > :54:08.Secretary, William Hague. Thanks for talking to us. Why is it the

:54:09. > :54:11.electorate are not convinced or persuaded by the offer that David

:54:12. > :54:16.Cameron has made to renegotiate and have a referendum on Europe, so much

:54:17. > :54:26.so they are voting tonight not for the Conservatives but will UKIP in

:54:27. > :54:30.droves? I think there is a deep disillusionment and this

:54:31. > :54:37.satisfaction, not in this country but across Europe. Exactly what Liam

:54:38. > :54:43.Fox was speaking about. I do know in the European elections, as UKIP put

:54:44. > :54:47.it to them, they can have a free vote that does not have the

:54:48. > :54:50.consequence of bringing the wrong government in in this country. So it

:54:51. > :54:55.is different from a general election. We will respond by making

:54:56. > :55:01.it clear we can fix the relationship between Britain and Europe and

:55:02. > :55:07.deliver real change, give people a real say in a referendum. Only the

:55:08. > :55:13.Conservative Party can do that. That is what we have to make clear from

:55:14. > :55:18.now until the next general election. You have been saying that but it is

:55:19. > :55:24.not convincing people otherwise they would not have gone for Nigel

:55:25. > :55:26.Farage? People are capable of voting different ways in different

:55:27. > :55:29.elections. We have seen this in the last few days. Local election

:55:30. > :55:36.results are different from European election results. People use

:55:37. > :55:41.different results to deliver different messages. There is a

:55:42. > :55:48.message across Europe of disillusionment and Europe has two

:55:49. > :55:53.hear that loud and clear. As to how people vote in a general election,

:55:54. > :55:56.that will be determined over the next year but in this election, it

:55:57. > :56:02.is only the Conservative Party who can give Britain a referendum on

:56:03. > :56:07.Europe. UKIP would not be able to do so. It is only David Cameron and the

:56:08. > :56:11.Conservatives who could do that and we are committed to an in out

:56:12. > :56:18.referendum where people can make their decision. If you say people

:56:19. > :56:23.vote differently and send messages by voting UKIP rather than endorsing

:56:24. > :56:28.the Conservative position, which you have explained three times now, how

:56:29. > :56:35.do you account for the rise of the Front Nationa in France? Are you

:56:36. > :56:41.disconcerted by that, concerned by that or would you say it is people

:56:42. > :56:47.just sending a message? It is different in every European country.

:56:48. > :56:51.Of course, common across many European countries is the

:56:52. > :56:56.dissatisfaction with how the EU is operated, the lack of democratic

:56:57. > :57:00.accountability, particularly to national parliaments. But there are

:57:01. > :57:07.also major differences from one country to another. In France, the

:57:08. > :57:11.position of the National front has been entirely different from any

:57:12. > :57:15.extreme right groups in Britain, different again from Germany. So we

:57:16. > :57:20.will see particular character domestics of the politics of each

:57:21. > :57:26.country. As we know in France, there is also serious disillusionment with

:57:27. > :57:31.politics and government as well as with EUD. But we have to leave it to

:57:32. > :57:37.the French politicians to analyse what is happening in their country.

:57:38. > :57:44.Do you see it as the rise of a racist party in Europe? In that

:57:45. > :57:46.particular case, yes. We should be concerned about some of these

:57:47. > :57:53.developments across the rest of Europe. That is why it is so

:57:54. > :57:58.important next European Commission that the European Council, the next

:57:59. > :58:04.European Parliament do get a message there is rising discontent and

:58:05. > :58:07.tensions of many kinds in Europe. That requires a European Union that

:58:08. > :58:16.is more flexible, more competitive, that is lest centralised, and is

:58:17. > :58:21.Morimoto -- less remote and more accountable. That is in the

:58:22. > :58:26.interests of all of Europe and not just the UK. That is the agenda we

:58:27. > :58:33.will be pushing. Foreign Secretary, thank you very much. Jeremy. Let's

:58:34. > :58:40.pick up and what William Hague was saying and protests against the EU

:58:41. > :58:48.itself, if you like. We have these results so far. This is what we are

:58:49. > :58:53.seeing in terms of voting. If we defy Eurosceptic and look for it on

:58:54. > :59:00.these circles, we can see the change in the Eurosceptic portion of the

:59:01. > :59:03.vote since 2009. We are including Conservatives, members of the

:59:04. > :59:10.European People's Party. If you are Eurosceptic you come up here as a

:59:11. > :59:17.purple stripe. 2009, have a look. This is the Eurosceptic vote five

:59:18. > :59:25.years ago. The lower half of the circle. In France, 2009, I will go

:59:26. > :59:30.forward five years. Look at that increase. It is not the same in

:59:31. > :59:36.every country. Go back to 2009 again. Look at Croatia. It is the

:59:37. > :59:46.most recent entrants to the EU. Look at what happens if we move on five

:59:47. > :59:49.years. It actually gets smaller. It is one of the things we have

:59:50. > :59:54.noticed, Bulgaria, Romania and so on, the newer members have less

:59:55. > :00:00.Euroscepticism going on. But the thrust of this election so far is an

:00:01. > :00:03.increase in Euroscepticism of 7% if you look across the voting. That

:00:04. > :00:08.will have an impact in the European Parliament. Let's go inside the

:00:09. > :00:21.chamber and see the results from 2009. The European People's Party

:00:22. > :00:25.with 275 -- 265 MEPs. Then you have the FT which includes UKIP and the

:00:26. > :00:31.others. Quite a bit of fragmentation on the right. PPP, centre-right is

:00:32. > :01:09.still the main grouping. As a result of the elections today, this is what

:01:10. > :01:13.we are looking at. UKIP have said there is no way they would go into

:01:14. > :01:19.an alliance with the Front Nationa, but they will want to try and form

:01:20. > :01:23.one. At the moment this group is splintering a bit and we have to

:01:24. > :01:30.wait to see if it will remain as big a gripping as the Socialists. The

:01:31. > :01:34.impact of that will be shown in the choice of the next European

:01:35. > :01:43.Commission president. Do you want to comment? On the rise of the

:01:44. > :01:51.Eurosceptic parties. But we are also seeing a rise on the left in Spain

:01:52. > :01:55.where it looks like the established parties, the centre-left and the

:01:56. > :02:00.centre-right, have taken a real pounding. The challenge has not come

:02:01. > :02:07.from the far right, but the far left. We have to distinguish very

:02:08. > :02:11.carefully between Eurosceptic parties because some of the parties

:02:12. > :02:20.on the continent are quite unlike those that we have here. UKIP will

:02:21. > :02:27.not sit with the Front Nationa in the European Parliament, but the

:02:28. > :02:38.Front Nationa will not sit with the Golden Dawn which Marine Le Pen said

:02:39. > :02:43.after a filthy image. We have got to be very careful in what we talk

:02:44. > :02:46.about is Euroscepticism in this still wishing between legitimate

:02:47. > :02:51.democratic parties offering a clear, political choice and some parties on

:02:52. > :02:58.the continent which are quite different from anything we are used

:02:59. > :03:00.in this country, fortunately. It is interesting to hear what Nigel

:03:01. > :03:10.Farage says about this. Good evening. We saw you having a cup of

:03:11. > :03:24.tea, a Tony Benn moment, a moment ago. You may not have just heard. I

:03:25. > :03:32.did here. It is interesting. The parties of the right are saying they

:03:33. > :03:36.will not join up with each other. Front Nationa will not go with

:03:37. > :03:45.Golden Dawn. Everybody on that Eurosceptic side will be fighting

:03:46. > :03:49.each other. Your question says scepticism is all on the right of

:03:50. > :03:56.politics, but that is not true at all. There will be Eurosceptics

:03:57. > :04:03.elected on the left like Syriza in Greece. It is very sceptical of the

:04:04. > :04:08.package Greece has signed up to. In the first time I was there in the

:04:09. > :04:16.first five years I sat with socialist parties. I would have

:04:17. > :04:19.thought that UKIP sitting with the French National front was never

:04:20. > :04:26.going to happen and it is never going to happen. What happens when

:04:27. > :04:33.the new parliament forms? How do you see UKIP using its influence in that

:04:34. > :04:35.parliament? We must not con ourselves that the European

:04:36. > :04:41.Parliament has got too much influence. It cannot even decide to

:04:42. > :04:48.stop the circus between Brussels and Strasbourg. We will bode against a

:04:49. > :04:53.lot of the proposed legislation. The real impact of tonight is the big

:04:54. > :04:59.Eurosceptic gains we have seen will have a bigger impact on the politics

:05:00. > :05:05.of the member states and I think it will have inside the chamber in

:05:06. > :05:10.Strasbourg. What impact will it have on the politics of Great Britain? We

:05:11. > :05:15.may well see one party leader forced out of his position. We may see

:05:16. > :05:19.another party leader have to completely reconsider the idea they

:05:20. > :05:25.will not promise a referendum at the next election. The Prime Minister

:05:26. > :05:30.will face calls from within his own party for a much tougher negotiating

:05:31. > :05:35.stance. The impact on those three is pretty clear. From the UKIP

:05:36. > :05:38.perspective we take the results tonight and we add to them where we

:05:39. > :05:45.had successes in the council elections on Thursday. We are

:05:46. > :05:47.winning clusters of District Council seats in the same places we

:05:48. > :05:55.succeeded last year in the County Council elections. Our target has

:05:56. > :05:59.become a lot clearer for next year. But the political problem for you is

:06:00. > :06:05.you have no real influence at the European level. They are not going

:06:06. > :06:10.to take any notice of you kept coming back, even if you double the

:06:11. > :06:17.number of MEPs. In Britain because of first past the post you may pick

:06:18. > :06:24.up new work in the by-election, five seats in Westminster, but you are

:06:25. > :06:29.left saying Nick Clegg is going to be forced to resign, Ed Miliband

:06:30. > :06:35.will have to change his policy and offer a referendum and pigs might

:06:36. > :06:40.fly! That is fine. If Ed Miliband does not change his position on a

:06:41. > :06:44.referendum, that will be very good news for UKIP. One of the things

:06:45. > :06:49.that has been clear tonight is how well we have done in many of the

:06:50. > :06:54.Labour heartlands. Though is to say in a year plus night-time what UKIP

:06:55. > :06:59.can or cannot achieve in a general election, but it is not completely

:07:00. > :07:03.beyond the bounds of possibility we can get enough MPs next year to hold

:07:04. > :07:09.the balance of power in what is likely to be another hung

:07:10. > :07:16.parliament. How many do you think you might get? I have not thought

:07:17. > :07:19.about that yet, Nick. But I will do. We go on surprising people. I am

:07:20. > :07:23.delighted with the weight this campaign has gone and I am pleased

:07:24. > :07:36.with the result and the people's army of UKIP marches on. Last year

:07:37. > :07:42.you talked almost like a pressure group, this year you are talking

:07:43. > :07:46.about being a powerful force in politics. Do you wake up in the

:07:47. > :07:53.morning and surprise yourself and say, how did I get here? If you said

:07:54. > :07:56.to me a few years ago this was achievable I might have been

:07:57. > :08:01.sceptical about it. But I have always tried for it. I think

:08:02. > :08:11.anything is possible after tonight's result. Nigel Farage,

:08:12. > :08:20.thank you. It is worth pausing to ponder, if we ask whether they might

:08:21. > :08:26.get three or four or five members of Parliament, a year ago the question

:08:27. > :08:31.was absurd. In the County Council elections nobody thought they would

:08:32. > :08:40.win seats in Westminster. They may well not. As happened in the past

:08:41. > :08:46.after European elections, with the BNP and the Greens, this may

:08:47. > :08:49.dissipate. But it is fascinating about having a conversation about

:08:50. > :08:56.whether he will have the balance of power in Westminster. He has rather

:08:57. > :09:01.surprised himself. It is possible they could pick up a few seats in a

:09:02. > :09:04.general election and in a fragmented parliament if the Liberal Democrats

:09:05. > :09:09.collapse or decline, the Government would be dependent on a small party

:09:10. > :09:13.like UKIP or a Nationalist party to get a majority. That is a perfectly

:09:14. > :09:20.possible outcome of the next election. Like 1974 you had two

:09:21. > :09:24.large parties and a number of small ones and parliament became

:09:25. > :09:28.unmanageable. They will need areas of the country where there is a

:09:29. > :09:34.three party split. Although they are doing well, there is a ceiling on

:09:35. > :09:40.UKIP support. The people who do not like them really do not like them.

:09:41. > :09:45.To win on a first past the post system, different from tonight which

:09:46. > :09:51.is proportional representation, they depend on three party splits and

:09:52. > :09:57.just getting over the threshold to win a seat. Let's have a look at

:09:58. > :10:03.some of them are's headlines. The first editions of the newspapers.

:10:04. > :10:39.This is the Daily Mail. That is one way of looking at it.

:10:40. > :10:43.You may wonder why we have heard nothing about London. All the other

:10:44. > :10:52.parts of Britain, all the other regions in the European Parliament

:10:53. > :10:56.vote have been releasing results. But the returning officer of London

:10:57. > :11:02.has refused to allow any information to come through until it has all

:11:03. > :11:07.come through. We will get one London results suddenly, which is why Emily

:11:08. > :11:12.has been able to escape and end up on the other side of the studio with

:11:13. > :11:22.her guests to talk about the impact of what we have heard so far.

:11:23. > :11:26.I have got Andrew from the Observer and Isabel from the Spectator. A lot

:11:27. > :11:31.of focus and headlines has been on UKIP. But what about the other

:11:32. > :11:37.parties and how have they feared away from the headlines? Let's go

:11:38. > :11:41.from the top to the bottom to the Liberal Democrats. Since they joined

:11:42. > :11:46.the coalition they have had a lot of miserable election night, but this

:11:47. > :11:50.must beat the record. We have still got London and the South East, so

:11:51. > :11:58.the maximum total they could end up with is two. Possibly looking at a

:11:59. > :12:02.total wipe-out. They are coming behind the Green Party. You do not

:12:03. > :12:07.have to be a masochist to be a Liberal Democrat, but it must help

:12:08. > :12:13.at the moment. It must help tonight. They have shown astonishing

:12:14. > :12:19.resilience and I guess Nick Clegg is praying that will carry on. It made

:12:20. > :12:25.a big point of being pro-Europe in these elections. It is difficult for

:12:26. > :12:32.Nick Clegg because he made it his personal mission to set the Lib Dems

:12:33. > :12:36.as the party of being in and he set himself up with the debates. He did

:12:37. > :12:45.not take a back-seat, so this puts him on the line in a dangerous way.

:12:46. > :12:49.In previous elections Europe was the love that dare not speak its name

:12:50. > :12:57.for them and they talked about potholes or bus shelters or anything

:12:58. > :13:01.not about Europe. He took this big gamble and said, we are going to

:13:02. > :13:07.come out and say we are the pro-European party and it has not

:13:08. > :13:12.worked. Some Lib Dems are tweeting they have replaced the hardest

:13:13. > :13:18.working MEPs in Europe with the least hard-working, the people who

:13:19. > :13:23.resent the whole setup. This is the .1 of the Tory MEPs

:13:24. > :13:31.said. This is a message to the Euro elite that it takes voters to elect

:13:32. > :13:36.these sort of parties before they take note. I guess we should save

:13:37. > :13:46.the Green Party is doing pretty well. I can remember when they did

:13:47. > :13:49.very well and then they fizzled out in European elections. There is a

:13:50. > :13:54.body of the electorate who do not want to vote UKIP, but they do not

:13:55. > :13:59.like the mainstream Westminster parties either and those people

:14:00. > :14:04.joining others who have a reason to support the Greens, I give it a

:14:05. > :14:11.boost to the Greens. They are a niche protest party. A boutique

:14:12. > :14:18.protest party. They talk about fracking and other things. It is

:14:19. > :14:26.still a protest. Are we thinking UKIP has got first place? There is

:14:27. > :14:31.not much doubt. It has not been so far the worst night for the

:14:32. > :14:34.Conservatives. Comparing it with previous elections is difficult, but

:14:35. > :14:39.their share has not fallen that much. They had factored in a

:14:40. > :14:43.dreadful performance in these elections for months. They were

:14:44. > :14:48.telling everyone it would be a dreadful night. As long as they do

:14:49. > :14:53.not do so terribly and come below the Greens, that is a good thing for

:14:54. > :14:59.David Cameron because it will keep a lid on mayhem in his party. The

:15:00. > :15:02.Conservatives coming third has not happened to them for many decades.

:15:03. > :15:12.It is still not a great night for the Tories. We will be back.

:15:13. > :15:22.Never the Tories have come third since they began. It would be a

:15:23. > :15:30.sensational result for them. Jammy, can you show us what is going on? We

:15:31. > :15:35.can show you a map of the UK and it will take your breath away. If I'd

:15:36. > :15:45.just give you the 12 regions including northern Ireland.

:15:46. > :15:54.Els last town we coloured this in, we had a lot of blue and Labour red

:15:55. > :15:58.in the North East. Labour in Wales this time, Conservatives were blue

:15:59. > :16:07.in Wales. Labour had a horrible time in 2009. They are advancing. But

:16:08. > :16:11.look at UKIP. Let's break it down by Council area so we can just see what

:16:12. > :16:16.areas the UKIP vote is strongest in. Other parties as well. We are

:16:17. > :16:23.feeding the votes through individual areas. A lot of blue here in the

:16:24. > :16:28.centre of England but also a lot of UKIP purple that wasn't there

:16:29. > :16:33.before. This is the bit that is quite striking. If we flash in

:16:34. > :16:44.places where the party that is in first place was not in place --

:16:45. > :16:47.first place first time, we see an enormous amount of flashing purple

:16:48. > :16:55.where UKIP have gone into first place for the first time. Most of

:16:56. > :16:59.the major organs of the country are flashing this purple. It is very

:17:00. > :17:04.dramatic this result to see them going into first place in so many

:17:05. > :17:11.areas and pick up the regions as well. This is a way of trying to

:17:12. > :17:16.gauge graphically for you, the level of support for particular parties.

:17:17. > :17:21.If you look at this whole map of the country, you see purple which is the

:17:22. > :17:25.UKIP vote in 2009. You can see the depth and the richness of the purple

:17:26. > :17:31.is the strength of the vote. In areas where it is lighter, it is the

:17:32. > :17:37.UKIP votes that were not too strong. That is 2009. Now we move five years

:17:38. > :17:43.forward. The colour is getting richer because UKIP's vote is

:17:44. > :17:48.increasing almost everywhere. When you saw it change it wasn't just the

:17:49. > :17:55.classic areas of the south of the south-west, it was up in the North

:17:56. > :17:59.as well. The Liberal Democrats, their performance has been described

:18:00. > :18:05.as abject. This is the Lib Dems in 2009. Where it is yellow it is a

:18:06. > :18:11.strong lead them vote. Lighter yellow, not so strong. Now move

:18:12. > :18:19.forward, and this is how bad it is for the Liberal Democrats. Yellow is

:18:20. > :18:22.fading almost everywhere. Pockets of it and blotches of it, but lots of

:18:23. > :18:28.places where they have been wiped away. We heard about the South West

:18:29. > :18:35.earlier. No Lib MEP is there. Their last one was kicked out tonight. The

:18:36. > :18:41.south-west is yellow in 2009. Now what happens when I move it forward

:18:42. > :18:47.five years to today? Look at that! It has lost the richness in all

:18:48. > :18:53.parts of the south-west. The Lib Dems are being hammered. It is that

:18:54. > :18:59.UKIP purple appearing in so many new places, David. Let's join two of

:19:00. > :19:04.these Liberal Democrats who have lost their seats. We have a

:19:05. > :19:09.declaration, if you can hold on shortly we will come to you. We are

:19:10. > :19:25.told we have a declaration from Manchester in the north-west. Eight

:19:26. > :19:38.MEPs. The Conservative Party 351,985. The English Democrats,

:19:39. > :19:56.19,522. The Green Party, 123,075. The Labour Party, 594,000... And 63.

:19:57. > :20:13.The Liberal Democrats, 105,487. No to EU, 5402. Pirate party UK, 8597.

:20:14. > :20:28.The Socialist equality party, 5067. The UK Independence Party, UKIP,

:20:29. > :20:33.481,932. Therefore, the four names and other particulars of the

:20:34. > :20:37.candidates who have filled all been allocated a seat and who are

:20:38. > :20:42.therefore elected are as follows: To Reza Mary Griffin, commonly known as

:20:43. > :21:11.to Reza Griffin, the Labour Party. Number two, Paul Andrew not all, UK

:21:12. > :21:21.Independence Party UKIP. -- Paul not all. Number three, Jacqueline

:21:22. > :21:30.Foster, the Conservative Party. Number four, Mohammed Avenue self

:21:31. > :21:57.car on, the Labour Party. Number five, Louis bores, the UKIP.

:21:58. > :22:14.Number six, Julie Ward, the Labour Party. Number seven, Sergio Karim,

:22:15. > :22:29.the Conservative Party. Number eight, Stephen Wolf, UKIP. Thank

:22:30. > :22:39.you. Three Labour MEPs, three UKIP. Two Conservatives. Labour is up one,

:22:40. > :22:47.UKIP up two, Conservatives down one, Liberal Democrats lose their seat

:22:48. > :22:52.and the BNP lose their seat. Can a racist, fascist party claim to

:22:53. > :22:57.represent the communities of the north-west in the European

:22:58. > :23:05.Parliament? On Thursday, voters of the north-west sends a clear message

:23:06. > :23:19.that they want Labour led by Ed Miliband representing them in the

:23:20. > :23:27.local elections and Europe. Across the North West, thousands of Labour

:23:28. > :23:34.activists have campaigned on the issues that really matter. Jobs and

:23:35. > :23:45.growth. Social protection and employment rights. Protect think our

:23:46. > :23:52.most vulnerable citizens. Defending our public services and the NHS, our

:23:53. > :24:02.most precious... With Labour's increase of 13%, UKIP up 27% and a

:24:03. > :24:07.wipe-out for the BNP. Let's join as we were about to, two defeated

:24:08. > :24:15.Liberal MEPs. Graham Watson from the south-west on the right and Edward

:24:16. > :24:20.McMillan-Scott, from the Yorkshire and Humber on the left. We can see

:24:21. > :24:26.both of you together, Edward McMillan-Scott, can I start with

:24:27. > :24:30.you? It does sound first of all, the Lib Dems will face a complete

:24:31. > :24:33.wipe-out at the moment in the European Parliament. I wonder

:24:34. > :24:39.whether this is to do with the Coalition Government and the

:24:40. > :24:51.entrance of liberals into the coalition or because of a strong

:24:52. > :25:01.anti-European feeling in Britain? Did you hear me? Did you hear me,

:25:02. > :25:09.Graham Watson? Yes, I heard you. I think clearly we have suffered from

:25:10. > :25:13.being in government. We have seen a classic mid-term protest votes, but

:25:14. > :25:20.this time not from one of the established parties it was from a

:25:21. > :25:23.new,. We have had to make difficult and unpopular decisions at a time we

:25:24. > :25:27.were coming out of a deep recession and that has had an impact. But

:25:28. > :25:32.there is also the fact we have seen an anti-European vote in this

:25:33. > :25:37.country, just as we have seen in France with the National front, in

:25:38. > :25:44.Italy with the 5-star movement and elsewhere. The combination of those

:25:45. > :25:49.two factors has hit us hard. I don't think we will be completely wiped

:25:50. > :25:55.out but we are down to a maximum of two seats. You are not on the side

:25:56. > :25:59.of history in view of the people of written and their judgement of the

:26:00. > :26:03.European Union? I think anti-European feeling in this

:26:04. > :26:09.country has not been as strong as it is since before the Napoleonic wars.

:26:10. > :26:15.We are seeing a new age. I think the people of this country are capable

:26:16. > :26:19.of the generous, outward looking tolerance approach we have known at

:26:20. > :26:24.other parts of our history. No doubt we will be back there and I have no

:26:25. > :26:30.doubt the Liberal Democrats will be back playing a part in that. You

:26:31. > :26:34.believe in the position you have taken, but is it the fact you are in

:26:35. > :26:40.coalition with the Conservatives people are disaffected by, which is

:26:41. > :26:46.a different issue about your views on Europe which are diametrically

:26:47. > :26:51.opposed to the Conservatives? In the south-west, the Conservatives lost

:26:52. > :26:56.the seat, we lost the seat, UKIP gained a seat sorry, Labour gained a

:26:57. > :27:00.seat and the Green party gained a seat. We are seeing an

:27:01. > :27:07.anti-government vote being reflected in these elections. It was reflected

:27:08. > :27:14.in the council elections last week, on Thursday night and is being

:27:15. > :27:23.reflected here. What do you think the Liberal Democrats should do in

:27:24. > :27:28.response to this? The humiliation of defeat always teaches you more than

:27:29. > :27:31.the vanity of victory. We will have to look at how we are trying to

:27:32. > :27:37.communicate a message and the kind of messages we are putting across. I

:27:38. > :27:44.don't think this is in any way unsurprising or the party at a

:27:45. > :27:49.very, very difficult time as Britain emerges from a long and deep

:27:50. > :27:55.recession. Edward McMillan-Scott, I think you can now hear us. Can you

:27:56. > :28:04.give me a thumbs up if you can hear me? Is this a vote against Liberal

:28:05. > :28:10.Democrats and enthusiasm for Europe in a country that is turning against

:28:11. > :28:16.the European, the whole European experiments? Or is it to do with you

:28:17. > :28:20.being in government with the Conservatives and they don't like

:28:21. > :28:25.that? I think it is too early to say. The election has been an odd

:28:26. > :28:30.one. I felt from the beginning things were not going well. Nick leg

:28:31. > :28:35.was right to challenge Nigel Farage over Europe and the two debate that

:28:36. > :28:41.took pace, the public thought Nigel Farage had one. The pundits thought

:28:42. > :28:47.Nick Clegg had one. It is important to start the debate in the run-up to

:28:48. > :28:55.the general election and I am proud to stand for a party that in itself

:28:56. > :29:01.stands for Europe. Nigel Farage was talking about the Strasberg issue,

:29:02. > :29:06.but it was me who led the campaign to get out of Strasberg without any

:29:07. > :29:10.help from UKIP. We got rid of the most hard-working MEPs, Liberal

:29:11. > :29:15.Democrats and replace them with people who will not do as much for

:29:16. > :29:19.the United Kingdom. I regard that as a great pity but the public are

:29:20. > :29:26.beginning to realise Europe matters. It has come too late for us in this

:29:27. > :29:30.election but I wish the debate had begun earlier. Between those who

:29:31. > :29:36.want to stay in Europe and those who want out. The irony of this evening

:29:37. > :29:43.is the two anti-European parties, the UKIP party and the Green Party

:29:44. > :29:49.have done rather better. You have been at the European Parliament a

:29:50. > :29:53.long time, first as a conservative and then as a Liberal Democrat. On a

:29:54. > :30:02.personal level, what are you going to do now? I am not going to fade

:30:03. > :30:05.away. I have been in politics and long time and four years ago I left

:30:06. > :30:08.the Tories when they became too sceptical. I have found in the

:30:09. > :30:15.Liberal Democrats, a party of conviction. Many convictions I share

:30:16. > :30:22.will stop it is not something the Tories are very interested in. It is

:30:23. > :30:25.a vital element of the European Union's projection abroad and that

:30:26. > :30:30.is why Liberal Democrats find it Europe a more congenial place than

:30:31. > :30:42.conservatives. Thank you very much indeed, going straight to Birmingham

:30:43. > :30:48.for the West Midlands results. I have the notice of result.

:30:49. > :30:56.I, Mark Rogers, the returning officer in the West Midlands

:30:57. > :31:02.region, on the 21st of May, 2014, hereby declare the number of votes

:31:03. > :31:12.cast for each party is as follows: An Independence From Europe, 27,171.

:31:13. > :31:27.British National Party, 20,643. Conservative Party, 330,470. English

:31:28. > :31:50.Democrats, 12,832. The Green Party, 71,464. The Harmony Party, 1857. The

:31:51. > :32:11.Labour Party, 363,033. Liberal Democrats, 75,648. NO2EU, 4653. UK

:32:12. > :32:22.Independence Party, 428,010. We demand a referendum now, 23,426. The

:32:23. > :32:26.total rejected ballots were 8478. I therefore declare that the following

:32:27. > :32:33.candidates have been duly elected for the West Midlands region. The

:32:34. > :32:52.first seat goes to jewel Seymour, UKIP. The second seat goes to Neena

:32:53. > :32:59.Gill, Labour Party. The third seat goes to Philip Brad born,

:33:00. > :33:10.Conservative Party. The fourth seed goes to Jim Carver, UK Independence

:33:11. > :33:16.Party. The fifth seat goes to Shyam Simon, Labour Party, the sixth seat

:33:17. > :33:23.goes to Anthea McIntyre, Conservative Party. The seven seat

:33:24. > :33:30.goes to Bill Etheridge, UK Independence Party. There are

:33:31. > :33:36.remaining candidates of the party list who were not elected, but I do

:33:37. > :33:37.not intend to go through those. The number of votes which each

:33:38. > :33:58.successful party had was as follows: Emily, what can you now tell us,

:33:59. > :34:08.because you are constantly changing this picture of Britain? We have had

:34:09. > :34:14.338 of the local authorities. This is the scoreboard for Great Britain.

:34:15. > :34:22.The Conservatives are not doing badly on 24%. They were at the top

:34:23. > :34:29.the last time round. Labour are making gains. Will that be

:34:30. > :34:38.substantial enough? The Greens are coming in at fourth place, just down

:34:39. > :34:42.fractionally. The Lib Dems have been hammered in terms of their share of

:34:43. > :34:47.the vote across the UK. We have a prediction for Scotland. We have not

:34:48. > :34:53.yet had the declaration for this country. This is our prediction of

:34:54. > :35:05.how things will turn out when they make their declaration. Labour, two

:35:06. > :35:10.MEPs. The SNP, two MEPs, the conservative on one and the first

:35:11. > :35:20.UKIP MEP in Scotland. We understand it was very close between a third

:35:21. > :35:27.SNP MEP and this UKIP figure. There is a chance they may swap over, but

:35:28. > :35:33.based on the number of votes counted so far, that is our picture of

:35:34. > :35:37.Scotland. Let's look at how the country has voted and forget

:35:38. > :35:45.proportional representation and do it in terms of parties. What is it

:35:46. > :35:50.between Conservatives and Labour? It is almost neck and neck. You heard

:35:51. > :35:54.Sadiq Khan make the point that London changed a lot, but we have

:35:55. > :36:00.not got that London result yet. It is pretty striking that Labour and

:36:01. > :36:08.the Tories are neck and neck. We are talking about an unpopular party one

:36:09. > :36:12.year from an election, UKIP on the rise and the assumption they will

:36:13. > :36:17.take votes from the Conservatives, and yet Labour and the Tories are

:36:18. > :36:22.basically neck and neck. The gains are greater for Labour but that is

:36:23. > :36:27.because we are comparing it to 2009 with the expenses scandal, Gordon

:36:28. > :36:35.Brown as the Prime Minister, a revolt in the Cabinet, so gains for

:36:36. > :36:41.Labour is no surprise, but it is pretty striking that they cannot

:36:42. > :36:47.confidently at this stage be sure of second place. Even if they get it,

:36:48. > :36:51.there will be people in the Labour Party who are worried saying, we are

:36:52. > :36:56.struggling to beat the Tories at this stage? How is that happening?

:36:57. > :37:06.Is that because the Tories are offering a referendum? UKIP minors,

:37:07. > :37:12.so to speak? It is always how people understand what the vote is. Plenty

:37:13. > :37:17.of people will be saying it is just the European elections. Parties of

:37:18. > :37:21.the left never do well in European elections. It was not since Margaret

:37:22. > :37:26.Beckett was acting leader of the Labour Party in 1994 that they have

:37:27. > :37:32.done well when Labour was about to come to office in that landslide.

:37:33. > :37:36.Some will dismiss it and say it is just a European election, focus on

:37:37. > :37:42.the locals and the marginal opinion polls, it is OK. Others will say,

:37:43. > :37:48.this was a national vote and we cannot come first and we are not

:37:49. > :37:51.even that certain of coming second one year from Ed Miliband wanting to

:37:52. > :38:02.be Prime Minister. That could be a worry. Peter. It is worth looking at

:38:03. > :38:05.it in terms of Government and opposition. Five years ago Labour

:38:06. > :38:14.was in Government and got 16% of the vote. Today the Conservatives have

:38:15. > :38:19.got 24%. So they are up. The Conservatives were in opposition

:38:20. > :38:30.five years ago and they got 28%. Labour have got 24%. That if nothing

:38:31. > :38:33.else should terrify Labour. Do you have any explanation of why it

:38:34. > :38:38.should be? It is all very well to look at the statistics, but that is

:38:39. > :38:46.easy. But you interpret this as well? There are two things Labour

:38:47. > :38:50.has failed to do under Ed Miliband's leadership. Firstly to

:38:51. > :38:54.establish Ed Miliband is a plausible Prime Minister. He is a long way

:38:55. > :39:01.behind David Cameron when people are asked. When they say or do you trust

:39:02. > :39:06.more? The Conservatives are well ahead. In the past there have been

:39:07. > :39:11.parties who have won a general election being behind on the leader

:39:12. > :39:18.or being behind on the economy. I know no election where a party has

:39:19. > :39:21.won when they are behind on both the leadership and the economy. Do you

:39:22. > :39:26.think it is this promise of a referendum that is just bringing

:39:27. > :39:31.enough people to the Conservative Party? There is a massive

:39:32. > :39:35.Eurosceptic view out there which UKIP represents. The Conservative

:39:36. > :39:42.voters are less enthusiastic about this. Europe is not in the forefront

:39:43. > :39:47.of people's minds. Those who are passionate for a referendum want

:39:48. > :39:54.Britain to come out of the EU entirely. They are going for UKIP. I

:39:55. > :40:00.think the Conservatives, the economy is explaining it. If it had been an

:40:01. > :40:04.election a year ago, the Conservatives would have done

:40:05. > :40:10.worse. Does the economy explain it right across Europe? That is the

:40:11. > :40:15.point I was going to raise. In the opinion polls the Conservative

:40:16. > :40:22.performance has not matched that much so far with the improving

:40:23. > :40:25.economic situation. One of the questions is if the economy

:40:26. > :40:33.continues to improve, how much will that turn into additional votes? I

:40:34. > :40:44.will come back, we have just got a declaration coming through from

:40:45. > :41:10.Southampton. Conservatives, 720 3000, 571. Green Party, 211,706. The

:41:11. > :41:32.Harmony Party, 1904. Labour Party, 342,775. Liberal Democrats, 197,876.

:41:33. > :41:41.Liberty Great Britain, 2494. The Peace Party, 10,130. The Roman

:41:42. > :41:57.Party, 2997. The Socialist Party of Great Britain, 5454 Russell. UK

:41:58. > :42:06.Independence Party, 750,000, 439. YOURvoice, 2932. The total votes

:42:07. > :42:12.with 3 million, 248,000 and eight turnout of 36.46%. The consequence

:42:13. > :42:19.of that is the seats are allocated as follows. The first seat goes to

:42:20. > :42:44.the UK Independence Party, Mr Nigel Farage. The second seat goes to the

:42:45. > :42:56.Conservative Party, Mr Dan Hammond. The third seat goes to the UK

:42:57. > :43:09.Independence Party, Janice Atkinson. The fourth seat goes to the

:43:10. > :43:23.Conservative Party. The fifth seat goes to the Labour Party, Anneliese

:43:24. > :43:35.Dodds. The six seat goes to the UK Independence Party, Diane James. The

:43:36. > :43:46.seven seat goes to the Conservative Party, Richard James Ashworth. The

:43:47. > :44:07.eighth seat goes to the Green Party, Keith Taylor. The night seat

:44:08. > :44:28.goes to the Liberal Democrats. Dashed ninth. The 10th seat goes to

:44:29. > :44:34.the UK Independence Party. The remaining candidates have not been

:44:35. > :44:40.elected... We will hear from Nigel Farage in a moment. That is the

:44:41. > :44:51.first Liberal Democrat seat held and it is held by just 16 votes. It is

:44:52. > :45:16.very close, it is about 7000. They crept in. Very close. We have had

:45:17. > :45:23.three parties in British politics that led us into, market, developed

:45:24. > :45:26.into a political union, who have twisted and turned with promises to

:45:27. > :45:33.give us a referendum, that they have never capped. The penny has dropped,

:45:34. > :45:37.as members of this union we can't run our own country and crucially we

:45:38. > :45:43.cannot control our own borders. Far from this being something that is,

:45:44. > :45:47.find two people on the centre-right politics, that commentators would

:45:48. > :45:51.like to believe, in the north we have bitten very hard into the

:45:52. > :45:57.Labour vote. We almost topped the poll in Wales. We will make a

:45:58. > :46:03.breakthrough in Scotland and we are genuinely a UK Independence Party.

:46:04. > :46:08.We will go from here to Newark and we will go on next year to the

:46:09. > :46:12.general election with a targeting strategy. I promise you this, you

:46:13. > :46:21.haven't heard the last of us. Thank you very much. Nigel Farage, leader

:46:22. > :46:31.of UKIP who are on 22 MEPs at the moment, up ten from five years ago.

:46:32. > :46:35.Standing for election these days is an unpopular pursuit. People are

:46:36. > :46:43.very cynical, but the alternatives to elect give politics, is anarchy

:46:44. > :46:50.and disorder. This is Daniel Hammond, the Conservative MEP. This

:46:51. > :46:54.election has been clean and fair. It is the most natural thing in the

:46:55. > :47:00.world. The rest of Europe, we have had some strange results. Although I

:47:01. > :47:04.am glad to say we saw the back of the BNP in this country, there have

:47:05. > :47:10.been extreme and anti-democratic parties are elected across the

:47:11. > :47:16.Channel. That is a consequence of taking power away from local people

:47:17. > :47:20.and concentrating it in the hands of a remote elite. A project that was

:47:21. > :47:24.supposed to make is get on better has ended up stoking national

:47:25. > :47:31.animosities not seen for half a century. In Britain, as we see in

:47:32. > :47:37.this results, a clear majority for independence. Wanting to leave

:47:38. > :47:42.behind this dwindling customs union and rejoined the wider world. The

:47:43. > :47:46.question is, how to translate that majority into policy? It would be

:47:47. > :47:52.tragic if the clear will of the British people through a split vote

:47:53. > :47:56.on the first past the post system were to result in candidates who are

:47:57. > :47:59.not in favour of a wraparound, in favour of the European project,

:48:00. > :48:07.winning on a small minority of the vote. One last thing, the European,

:48:08. > :48:13.conservative lost tonight, it's leader, Martin Callanan. By the

:48:14. > :48:22.smallest votes in the North of England. That is Southampton getting

:48:23. > :48:30.the results for the whole of the south-east. Let's get back, Andrew I

:48:31. > :48:37.interrupted you. We were talking briefly about the effect of the

:48:38. > :48:42.estate of economies on these results, on the individual economies

:48:43. > :48:49.throughout Europe? Economic disenchantment has been a factor.

:48:50. > :48:52.Different places such as France and Ireland and Greece where austerity

:48:53. > :49:01.has been an important issue, there are other places where the position

:49:02. > :49:11.of the euro and ways the travails it is associated with it. In other

:49:12. > :49:16.places, such as the UK, because it is narrowly about constitutional and

:49:17. > :49:24.other issues that UKIP talks about. On the other hand, its appeal is to

:49:25. > :49:27.a broader sense of anti-politics. It is a disenchantment with politics

:49:28. > :49:33.rather than a disenchantment with the economic policies the is

:49:34. > :49:40.delivering. What do you think the effect of these elections will be on

:49:41. > :49:43.the European project? Very little. We have talked about parties to the

:49:44. > :49:48.left and parties to the right. Pro-European parties of the sensor

:49:49. > :49:52.will win the overwhelming majority of seats in the parliament. They

:49:53. > :49:57.will go on with the European project pretty much as it is. I would not

:49:58. > :50:06.expect them to be diverted a little bit to the left or a bit to the

:50:07. > :50:11.right. On the last point, how the mainstream parties are going to

:50:12. > :50:15.react. They have shrunk, mainly the centre-right, but also the

:50:16. > :50:18.centre-left across Europe. There is an interesting quote from Martin

:50:19. > :50:25.Schultz, the top candidate for the Socialists, seeming as though he

:50:26. > :50:28.really cares saying, I think pro-European parties in the European

:50:29. > :50:35.Parliament, have to take very seriously what is behind the vote.

:50:36. > :50:41.There has been a loss of trust in the mainstream, pro-European centre.

:50:42. > :50:46.It is not just in the UK that parties on the mainstream left and

:50:47. > :50:49.on the mainstream right, are nervous. It is in Europe. On the

:50:50. > :50:55.economy, we have results from 24 countries. What we can see is it is

:50:56. > :50:59.in the countries that have shrunk since 2009 where we have seen a loss

:51:00. > :51:04.of votes will stop ten percentage points down from the last general

:51:05. > :51:09.election in countries where there has been an economic boom, we can

:51:10. > :51:16.see they have been stable. The economy does seem to matter across

:51:17. > :51:21.Europe. Jeremy, we can look at that? Nothing like real votes to

:51:22. > :51:28.substitute for opinion polls to bring politicians up short. This is

:51:29. > :51:33.the truth of what people are saying? We can start to look at the economic

:51:34. > :51:39.effect. Let's bring on some of these countries growth figures. We will

:51:40. > :51:45.measure them against the results. Spain, in 2013 the economy is still

:51:46. > :51:51.contracting. If we go down to the southeastern corner of Europe,

:51:52. > :51:55.Greece, we know has been badly affect it, more than any other

:51:56. > :52:09.country. 3.9 contraction just last year. Look at this, Cyprus, they had

:52:10. > :52:12.the banking and mining crisis. You can see the situation in the

:52:13. > :52:20.economy. You can also see, if you come this way with me, the Baltic

:52:21. > :52:25.states doing better. As you are discussing, we have different

:52:26. > :52:33.situations. Moving back here. Growth in 2013 in Estonia and Latvia and

:52:34. > :52:38.Lithuania. Very much so in Latvia, 4.1%. Has this shown up in the

:52:39. > :52:42.voting for the European Parliament? Are the result is different because

:52:43. > :52:47.there is so much influence because of the economy? This is a share of

:52:48. > :52:56.the vote from 2009. Move it forward, you get a bit of an

:52:57. > :52:59.indication. This is Spain. Ring on the Spanish results from the last

:53:00. > :53:05.few hours and see what they tell us. Here, the main two parties in

:53:06. > :53:11.Spain, the People's party and the Socialists, are being thumped.

:53:12. > :53:18.Terrible situation with their economy, high unemployment, almost

:53:19. > :53:27.50% unemployment among young people. Both the People's party and the

:53:28. > :53:32.Socialists down 16%. The coalition, 6% roughly having been there

:53:33. > :53:39.before. The traditional parties in Spain being very badly hurt. Not the

:53:40. > :53:43.case if we picked the Baltic states. Let's go for Estonia. The economy

:53:44. > :53:50.grew last year. And being newish entrance to the EU, they tend to be

:53:51. > :54:00.more positive. The government in Estonia is Reform and the social

:54:01. > :54:04.Democrats. They are up 5%. What is happening here is where the economy

:54:05. > :54:08.is not actually squeezing the population, they seemed to be voting

:54:09. > :54:14.for the status quo, the traditional parties. But in Spain and some of

:54:15. > :54:20.these other countries, Greece, and Cyprus, it is the main parties

:54:21. > :54:27.getting hurt. Jeremy, thanks very much. But just to remind you if you

:54:28. > :54:40.are watching us with a computer or smartphone, you can follow the

:54:41. > :54:48.results online. You can also read how the proportional representation

:54:49. > :54:58.system works. And also you can follow us at BBC politics. We will

:54:59. > :55:05.get you onto Twitter, by the end of the night we will get you there. I

:55:06. > :55:16.love Twitter. I don't treat myself, but I read. You are on it, I have

:55:17. > :55:23.seen you on it. My son writes it for me, mainly to say I am following

:55:24. > :55:27.Tranmere Rovers. You were saying the mood in the parliament would

:55:28. > :55:35.change, Patrick Hannan and Nigel Farage, the naughty boys before,

:55:36. > :55:48.would change? I don't go to the trouser Burke parliament that often.

:55:49. > :55:53.-- Strasberg. Patrick Hannan and Nigel Farage are the bad boys, yes.

:55:54. > :55:58.They take on the people who were nominated for the top European jobs.

:55:59. > :56:07.Now they will find themselves in a sea of bad boys and girls. Suddenly

:56:08. > :56:11.there will be parties from right across Europe full of people whose

:56:12. > :56:19.politics is based on anger, rudeness, willingness to speak to

:56:20. > :56:25.the European forces. It will change the European force. The big two

:56:26. > :56:32.blocks, the centre-right and the centre-left may not listen. It could

:56:33. > :56:36.be they cooperate against the extremes, as they will describe

:56:37. > :56:42.them. It means the notion of going before the European Parliament,

:56:43. > :56:45.which was always a doddle if you were the European Commission

:56:46. > :56:52.president, but I suspect if you are a Eurocrat, you will need a stiff

:56:53. > :56:55.brandy. You say the central parties will react in that way and just

:56:56. > :57:03.carry on, but they will have seen what has happened and be under

:57:04. > :57:10.pressure not to just carry on? You may see a stretch between what

:57:11. > :57:13.people feel they need to do to have influence in Strasbourg where they

:57:14. > :57:16.need to make alliances across countries and their own domestic

:57:17. > :57:22.leaders who are saying, we need to reassure our electorates we are more

:57:23. > :57:28.sceptical. I think Nick Robinson is right. He will be listening? There

:57:29. > :57:34.will be worried about elections coming up. But what we will see in

:57:35. > :57:42.the European Parliament is more far right and a new group, but what we

:57:43. > :57:48.have seen in the past these groups don't vote together. They might

:57:49. > :57:52.share views on Europe and views on anti-immigration, but they don't

:57:53. > :57:57.vote together and turn up less and do less committee work than the

:57:58. > :58:01.mainstream parties. So the day-to-day policy might not be that

:58:02. > :58:06.different. But what may be worth watching is what is happening around

:58:07. > :58:10.Europe in the capitals when they take time to die just these results.

:58:11. > :58:19.Do you agree with that? By and large. But many European leaders

:58:20. > :58:24.will be thinking it is a high watermark of economically driven

:58:25. > :58:26.anger. They will be hoping from here the European economies will start to

:58:27. > :58:34.pick up and some of that will fade away, as it has sometimes faded away

:58:35. > :58:38.in the past. Many European leaders have learned a key set of lessons

:58:39. > :58:41.from the eurozone crisis about the absolute necessity in order for the

:58:42. > :58:50.Eurozone crisis not to be repeated, of moving towards much greater

:58:51. > :58:53.political integration, fisted all -- Crystal integration, which will

:58:54. > :58:57.drive the eurozone together and they will not feel they can afford to

:58:58. > :59:03.deviate on Project at all. Lets see where we stand. Coming up to 1am. We

:59:04. > :59:09.have had nine of the 11 regions of England declared? We are still

:59:10. > :59:15.waiting for Scotland and London of course. That was delayed at account.

:59:16. > :59:24.This is the Great Britain scoreboard. UKIP still on top on

:59:25. > :59:29.29%. Tying for second place, the Conservatives and Labour both on 24%

:59:30. > :59:34.share of the vote. Conservatives slipping down. Labour making gains,

:59:35. > :59:39.enough to put them into second place. The Green Party coming in

:59:40. > :59:44.fourth in front of the Lib Dems who have seen half of their share of the

:59:45. > :59:49.vote lost tonight. They have gained their first seat. Let me show you

:59:50. > :59:54.how some of the maps are coming up. It is something we said we would

:59:55. > :59:59.look at in terms of the higher share of the vote for any one party in any

:00:00. > :00:03.particular place. You can see how the map is turning purple. That was

:00:04. > :00:10.the colour it started off at the beginning of the night. Oxford,

:00:11. > :00:13.Brighton, Slough for Labour, the only bits that were not blue. But

:00:14. > :00:18.now this gives you more of a sense of how a general election would be

:00:19. > :00:27.fought in terms of the share of the vote. I wonder if Nigel Farage is

:00:28. > :00:31.looking at this purple and thinking they could be a seat there for him

:00:32. > :00:39.in the general election. A long way off but these things are all

:00:40. > :00:43.starting to be a thought. This is Scotland, the SNP are on top. They

:00:44. > :00:48.are not moving. They have not lost anything but they certainly have not

:00:49. > :00:53.pulled up, given the referendum just a few months away. Labour are in

:00:54. > :00:57.second place and making some games. Not that significant but it is

:00:58. > :01:00.holding in second place. The Conservatives have not lost any of

:01:01. > :01:05.their share of votes here in Scotland. They are on 17% but they

:01:06. > :01:10.have not gone down. The Lib Dems are taking the hit from the parties in

:01:11. > :01:15.government. We will be looking a bit more closely at that because we have

:01:16. > :01:20.made a prediction that says that with 10%, we believe that UKIP have

:01:21. > :01:25.got their first seat in Scotland. Nine of the 11 in Great Britain

:01:26. > :01:32.nine. We are joined by Danny Alexander, chief secretary of the

:01:33. > :01:35.Treasury. What do you make, first of all, of Liberal Democrats falling

:01:36. > :01:42.behind the Green party in these elections. They are losing almost

:01:43. > :01:47.all of their MEPs. Well apart from Catherine Bearder who was elected in

:01:48. > :01:52.the south-east it has been a pretty awful night for the Liberal

:01:53. > :01:57.Democrats. People have used the European elections over many

:01:58. > :02:01.parliaments to have a go at the government in office, we have

:02:02. > :02:06.obviously taken a significant share of that tonight, so have the

:02:07. > :02:11.Conservative Party. Also, I think that we chose, very deliberately, to

:02:12. > :02:16.make our campaign in these elections about being the only party that was

:02:17. > :02:19.making a positive case for the European Union. This result also

:02:20. > :02:23.shows how far those of us who very strongly believe that Britain's

:02:24. > :02:28.future as part of the European Union, our jobs, economy,

:02:29. > :02:39.investment, growth depend on that, how much more we have to do about

:02:40. > :02:42.that argument. Doesn't it show that you were wrong? It does not show

:02:43. > :02:44.that. I am proud of the campaign that we fought. It is one of the

:02:45. > :02:47.most fundamentally important arguments there needs to be made in

:02:48. > :02:51.this country in the next few years. The performance of UKIP should worry

:02:52. > :02:55.anyone who believes in the continued membership of the European Union. It

:02:56. > :03:00.is a low turnout election, only about a third of the population

:03:01. > :03:02.turned out to vote said the significance can be overstated but

:03:03. > :03:06.nonetheless I think it should be a wake-up call to the many

:03:07. > :03:11.pro-Europeans who have remained silent on the Shishir for a long

:03:12. > :03:20.time. It is no longer good enough for those who strongly believe that

:03:21. > :03:22.Britain should be a part of the European Union to succeed and thrive

:03:23. > :03:25.and grow in the future to remain silent and the argument can go by

:03:26. > :03:28.default. The latest figures I saw of people who are in favour of staying

:03:29. > :03:32.in and pulling out showed them pretty much equal. I do not know if

:03:33. > :03:36.that is the case but if that is the case then why would you have done so

:03:37. > :03:40.badly because people who believe in what you say would have gone on

:03:41. > :03:46.voting for you? There are two elements and that is one of them. As

:03:47. > :03:51.the Labour Party found in 2009 and other parties have found in

:03:52. > :03:56.elections gone by that of course parties of government do suffer in

:03:57. > :03:59.these European elections. We made a very important decision as a party

:04:00. > :04:04.in 2010 to join the Coalition Government and we have delivered the

:04:05. > :04:08.start of a strong economic recovery, we have delivered the

:04:09. > :04:12.income tax cuts that we promised among other things but we need to

:04:13. > :04:16.redouble our efforts to get that message across. The local elections

:04:17. > :04:20.showed that in areas where we are strong around the country and we

:04:21. > :04:24.have parliamentary strength than we get that message across, we can more

:04:25. > :04:28.than hold our own. This should very much be a message that we must make

:04:29. > :04:37.that argument as powerfully and strongly as we can between now and

:04:38. > :04:40.the elections. Could you just wait there for a moment. I want to bring

:04:41. > :04:42.in Martin Tod who joins us from Southampton who wants a rather

:04:43. > :04:47.different approach. What would you like to see happen? I am extremely

:04:48. > :04:54.concerned about what has happened. We have seen our share of support

:04:55. > :05:00.half and we know that 35% of the population would vote in this way if

:05:01. > :05:04.there was a election tomorrow and we will trade ourselves as the party of

:05:05. > :05:09.insert there is a problem with our strategy and our leadership. Saying

:05:10. > :05:13.more of the same will not cut it. I am really concerned that the initial

:05:14. > :05:19.response that I am hearing to what is a disaster, losing all of our

:05:20. > :05:23.MEPs except for one, is far too complex. There must be major change

:05:24. > :05:27.or if you carry on doing the same thing, why would we expected from

:05:28. > :05:30.result next year. Nick Clegg put himself forward as the spokesperson

:05:31. > :05:34.of the campaign and people do not appear to have listened to us. We

:05:35. > :05:40.have been sent a message by the electorate and we need to listen to

:05:41. > :05:44.it and just what we are doing. Danny Alexander. I, of course, and as

:05:45. > :05:49.concerned as Martin and everyone else out about these results. Nobody

:05:50. > :05:57.wants to see Liberal Democrat councillors and MEPs re-elected more

:05:58. > :06:01.than ideal. Losing really and strong MEPs like George Lion in Scotland

:06:02. > :06:06.although the result is not confirmed, that is very bad. I think

:06:07. > :06:10.we have to look at what the right answer to that his and as a party we

:06:11. > :06:14.made a choice to try and sort out the country as a part of the

:06:15. > :06:17.Coalition Government. We have achieved a lot and we know that in

:06:18. > :06:21.our areas of strength the message about that achievement is one that

:06:22. > :06:25.gets across. It is something that Nick Clegg has made a fantastic

:06:26. > :06:29.contribution to and he is by far the best spokesman that we have for that

:06:30. > :06:32.and he needs to continue to make that argument strongly and

:06:33. > :06:37.powerfully as possible, recognising that in areas where we have not

:06:38. > :06:42.traditionally have strengthened that our vote has fallen away but any

:06:43. > :06:45.areas where we have a chance of holding or gaining parliamentary

:06:46. > :06:49.seats that we get the message across as powerfully as strongly as

:06:50. > :06:53.possible. It is not much of a mantra to say that in the areas where you

:06:54. > :06:56.are strongly get the message across because that is self evident and it

:06:57. > :07:00.does not help you in the areas where you are not and you need to win

:07:01. > :07:17.people back to the party. It is a key difference between the European

:07:18. > :07:20.election. In a European election you are operating under a system that is

:07:21. > :07:23.operating on very large reasons with many millions of people per region

:07:24. > :07:24.and in a general election it is by parliamentary consistency --

:07:25. > :07:26.constituency. Therefore it really matters about how as a party we

:07:27. > :07:29.forward to the general election. Martin, you want to Nick Clegg to go

:07:30. > :07:32.now despite the fact that he challenged Nigel Farage but who

:07:33. > :07:36.would you put in his place? One of the great things about the little

:07:37. > :07:40.Democratic party is that we are a Democratic party and I would like to

:07:41. > :07:44.see any new leader prove himself in a democratic party election. I am

:07:45. > :07:48.concerned about what Danny is saying, he is saying to carry on

:07:49. > :07:56.delivering leaflets and carry on saying what we said and carry on

:07:57. > :07:59.with the same spokesperson and it will all be fine but we have just

:08:00. > :08:02.seen what happens and it is not fine. I come from an area that has

:08:03. > :08:07.done well. We won the popular vote in Winchester and we held nine of

:08:08. > :08:11.our 11 seats. We were pleased with what happened but it was because we

:08:12. > :08:14.were talking frankly about our local record of achievement and what we

:08:15. > :08:17.wanted to do locally and we were talking about the achievements of

:08:18. > :08:23.the Coalition Government is being reflected in the local area and I

:08:24. > :08:27.strongly support doing that but to say that all we need to do is to

:08:28. > :08:31.carry on as we are as a party which is effectively what Danny is saying

:08:32. > :08:36.is inadequate and the voters have sent us a message. What is clear, or

:08:37. > :08:38.what seems to be clear, coming out of this is that they are not

:08:39. > :08:44.prepared to listen to our leader and that is a very serious problem. It

:08:45. > :08:47.is a problem that I think we need to address. Won't it look like panic 11

:08:48. > :08:54.months before an election if you change your leader? I think it looks

:08:55. > :09:00.like listening to the electorate. You cannot lose all of your MEPs

:09:01. > :09:03.except for one and pretend that nothing has happened. You cannot

:09:04. > :09:06.pretend your strategy is perfect and you need to carry on as you are and

:09:07. > :09:09.carry on delivering the leaflets and say what we said in our leaflets

:09:10. > :09:16.this year and everything will be fine. We have been doing this year

:09:17. > :09:21.after year after year and we keep being told it is the mid-term and

:09:22. > :09:25.the midterm moves nearer and nearer every year to the date of the

:09:26. > :09:30.general election so I am extremely concerned. There is a phrase that,

:09:31. > :09:34.yes, we are not a party of protest any more but we should not be the

:09:35. > :09:38.opposite, a party of complacency and status quo. We have to be

:09:39. > :09:41.challenging more in terms of what we want the future of the country to be

:09:42. > :09:45.like and I am really concerned that if we stay with Nick and the current

:09:46. > :09:49.strategy that we will get the results that this year has told us

:09:50. > :09:54.we will get it next year post general election. Danny Alexander,

:09:55. > :09:59.last word. Complacency? Absolutely not. I am as concerned about these

:10:00. > :10:04.results as Martin is but I do not think plunging the party into a

:10:05. > :10:08.period of introspection is the right answer to that. I think Nick Clegg

:10:09. > :10:11.has done a fantastic job as our leader and the Deputy Prime Minister

:10:12. > :10:15.of the country and delivering the achievements that Martin is putting

:10:16. > :10:20.on his leaflets in order to persuade people as he and his colleagues did

:10:21. > :10:24.fantastically Winchester to vote Liberal Democrat again in the local

:10:25. > :10:28.elections so I agree with what Paddy Ashdown was saying yesterday, what

:10:29. > :10:41.we have to do is make sure we are getting that across to people in a

:10:42. > :10:43.much more vigorous and strong way up and down the country. That is the

:10:44. > :10:46.way to succeed. I think the idea that by turning our backs on that

:10:47. > :10:48.and turning our backs on the coalition simply is not the right

:10:49. > :10:51.way forward. Danny Alexander and Martin Todd, thank you very much for

:10:52. > :10:54.joining us. Emily, let us have a look at London now.

:10:55. > :10:57.Although the results at London are not coming in very quickly because

:10:58. > :11:01.there have been problems at the counts but we have been given a hint

:11:02. > :11:06.and we have put together these percentage shares based on what

:11:07. > :11:10.we're getting so far. It was quite interesting looking at Danny

:11:11. > :11:13.Alexander earlier because he said that Liberal Democrats were doing

:11:14. > :11:16.well in the areas where they are strong but Sutton is a Liberal

:11:17. > :11:21.Democrat citadel at a local level and this is what hath happened to

:11:22. > :11:26.their vote here, down 6% and UKIP has made a 10% gain there. Labour is

:11:27. > :11:29.up and the Conservatives are slightly down but what you are

:11:30. > :11:35.seeing if you compare the different parts of London, the South East, the

:11:36. > :11:40.South West and the south-east further out again in Greenwich, is a

:11:41. > :11:46.rather different shape to the UKIP story. In Lewisham, very mixed area

:11:47. > :11:50.in the South, UKIP is only up about 3% but Labour have massive gains.

:11:51. > :11:55.The Conservatives are down slightly and the Lib Dems are taking the hit.

:11:56. > :12:00.If you want uniformity it is pretty much the fall of the Lib Dems share

:12:01. > :12:04.of the vote there. Sutton has UKIP up 10% and in Greenwich it is a bit

:12:05. > :12:11.more than we saw in Lewisham but not as great as we have seen in the rest

:12:12. > :12:14.of the country. Certainly not the sort of games that we have seen

:12:15. > :12:17.outside London yet there is a presence of UKIP here nonetheless.

:12:18. > :12:21.Emily, how did you get all of that because we have been told that the

:12:22. > :12:25.returning officer for the whole of London was refusing to give the

:12:26. > :12:29.results by Rabbi Boro? That is the point. We have gone to

:12:30. > :12:35.local authority websites to draw this data as we go along. That is

:12:36. > :12:38.why it is tentative because we have not had a returning officer or any

:12:39. > :12:42.concrete results. Do we have any idea when we will get

:12:43. > :12:45.the London results in at the moment? We were told it would be delayed by

:12:46. > :12:51.an hour so we are still waiting for another hour.

:12:52. > :12:56.To pick up on that, the team behind-the-scenes have been looking

:12:57. > :13:00.at how the UKIP vote changes depending on the ethnic mix. In a

:13:01. > :13:06.sense there is no surprise but the figures are interesting. Where 75%

:13:07. > :13:11.of the population is white UKIP vote goes up on average by 13 points but

:13:12. > :13:16.where less than 75% white that figure drops to a ten point rise.

:13:17. > :13:20.Given that London is a much more ethnically diverse part of the

:13:21. > :13:23.country and bearing in mind these figures are based on parts of

:13:24. > :13:28.Britain outside London so far, you would expect to see a significantly

:13:29. > :13:34.lower figure in London. Thank you. Can we show any light on

:13:35. > :13:38.when we might get the result? We have various things that have leaked

:13:39. > :13:43.out from Boro 's within London but do you know when the final thing

:13:44. > :13:47.will be out? There is emerging a communication

:13:48. > :13:52.breakdown between central control here at City Hall and Tower Hamlets

:13:53. > :13:59.because they seem to have been told since around 10pm that there was

:14:00. > :14:02.going to be another hour before we have the results but clearly

:14:03. > :14:06.everything is taking much longer than anybody ever anticipated and

:14:07. > :14:10.the kind of explanation is that our forthcoming at the moment are that

:14:11. > :14:16.it was a big turnout in Tower Hamlets, more than 50%, and also

:14:17. > :14:24.that there has been a knock-on effect from a very close male role

:14:25. > :14:34.battles there which they started counting on Friday. They had to wait

:14:35. > :14:39.for that to be sorted -- mayoral battle. There were issues with large

:14:40. > :14:43.crowds gathering. They then started the count for the local elections

:14:44. > :14:47.which also took some time and it was early in the morning on Saturday

:14:48. > :14:52.that they had to decide what to do about the count because everybody

:14:53. > :14:57.was tired. They stopped at 11am on Saturday and decided to give staff

:14:58. > :15:02.around 24 hours rest and they asked them to come back at 2pm this

:15:03. > :15:08.afternoon and clearly the task has just proven too much. They have been

:15:09. > :15:12.still counting some of the local council results. They have not

:15:13. > :15:15.resolved the outcome of the Council competition in Tower Hamlets and

:15:16. > :15:19.there just seems to have been a knock-on effect and they have not

:15:20. > :15:22.been able to go on. So it is a shambles and Tower

:15:23. > :15:25.Hamlets that is holding everything up.

:15:26. > :15:28.I could not possibly use such emotive language but there is

:15:29. > :15:31.certainly frustration, real frustration here at City Hall

:15:32. > :15:37.because you have everyone gathered here and everyone feels that

:15:38. > :15:41.increasingly the attention, not just of London is on City Hall, but the

:15:42. > :15:50.rest of the country as well. I can see nobody gathered except

:15:51. > :15:55.you! They have given up. They will watch you announce the London

:15:56. > :16:01.result! They are all downstairs in the canteen. There is a little baby

:16:02. > :16:07.sleeping quietly, a little baby belonging to one of the Green Party

:16:08. > :16:12.candidates. There is frustration in Lewisham. Lewisham Council are the

:16:13. > :16:19.cord and 18 authorities. They are doing it on behalf of London. --

:16:20. > :16:24.coordinating. They are going to Tower Hamlets, are trying to, as

:16:25. > :16:30.often as possible and they are being told that they are nearly there. It

:16:31. > :16:35.is not happening. It sounds like a model. If we get the other results,

:16:36. > :16:43.we will announce them and we can leave Tower Hamlets aside. Until

:16:44. > :16:47.tomorrow or the day after! In the first London May oral elections,

:16:48. > :16:59.they did not count a single vote overnight -- mayoral. There were

:17:00. > :17:06.brilliant pictures of political editors sleeping. David Dimbleby

:17:07. > :17:12.went to bed while I had to keep the programme going! That was the case

:17:13. > :17:19.in the first mayoral election. They have an absolute record of failure

:17:20. > :17:31.here. We are getting a tale of two London's. In comes Bromley,

:17:32. > :17:38.Bromley, UKIP very nearly one. It is very close with the Conservatives.

:17:39. > :17:43.-- won. UKIP are struggling in most of London, but a bit like the locals

:17:44. > :17:51.on Thursday night, those bits of London towards Kent, UKIP are doing

:17:52. > :17:56.well. UKIP are getting a toehold in parts of London but in other parts,

:17:57. > :18:06.UKIP are struggling and Labour are doing well. I want to go to

:18:07. > :18:18.Scotland. We have resolved everywhere except the western isles,

:18:19. > :18:21.is that correct? The western isles has a religious proclivity amongst

:18:22. > :18:26.many of its citizens that they respect the sabbath, so they do not

:18:27. > :18:32.count the votes on a Sunday. We have the other 31 areas declared in

:18:33. > :18:41.Scotland. It looks as if the pattern is clear. It looks like the SNP are

:18:42. > :18:47.topping the poll. Their vote is down fractionally on the last time.

:18:48. > :18:53.Labour are second, the Tories third and UKIP are coming in fourth at

:18:54. > :18:59.around 10% in Scotland. That 10% is probably enough to give UKIP a

:19:00. > :19:05.seat. In Scotland, that is not just their first MEP, prior to tonight

:19:06. > :19:11.they had no MPs or MSP 's. They did not have any councillors. This is

:19:12. > :19:16.their first toehold on elected powers in Scotland if it happens.

:19:17. > :19:20.The SNP are taking pleasure in coming first in the ballot, they say

:19:21. > :19:25.it is a good result after seven years in power in the Scottish

:19:26. > :19:28.Government. They are less happy about the vote shading off a little

:19:29. > :19:34.bit and they are definitely unhappy about the fact that they had set out

:19:35. > :19:40.to squeeze UKIP out of Scottish politics. It does not appear as if

:19:41. > :19:42.they have been able to do so. We remember the first appearance of

:19:43. > :19:49.Nigel Farage in Edinburgh when he had to take shelter in a public

:19:50. > :19:57.house from what was described as an angry mob. I do not know how

:19:58. > :20:08.important that was. The first foray into Scotland... The first

:20:09. > :20:15.suggestion was that UKIP had no place in Scotland, that was the

:20:16. > :20:18.reaction of the SNP at the time. That was the reaction of

:20:19. > :20:27.campaigners. They were not necessarily directly involved with

:20:28. > :20:31.the SNP. There was a demonstration when Nigel Farage was here. There is

:20:32. > :20:36.a segment of Scottish political opinion which says that UKIP has no

:20:37. > :20:42.place in Scotland, perhaps you hear that protest elsewhere. It appears

:20:43. > :20:45.that his party has a foothold in Scotland. This has an impact

:20:46. > :20:53.potentially on the referendum, the talk here tonight was that if UKIP

:20:54. > :20:56.had been kept out of the seat in Scotland, Alex Salmond could have

:20:57. > :21:01.detected this as being a very different voting pattern in

:21:02. > :21:06.Scotland, compared with England and therefore say that the body politic

:21:07. > :21:11.in Scotland is different to England. He could say that independence was

:21:12. > :21:19.required. It is a very different voting pattern, it is different in

:21:20. > :21:27.Wales. It looks like they will take a seat. The other parties in

:21:28. > :21:33.Scotland to support the union, do they want to see UKIP advance? They

:21:34. > :21:38.do not. If it comes to it, they would probably prefer UKIP to take

:21:39. > :21:43.that seat to a third seat for the SNP, with an eye to that referendum

:21:44. > :21:48.and an opportunity for Alex Salmond to make a constitutional point out

:21:49. > :21:52.of these elections. Can Alex Salmond still make the case that there are

:21:53. > :21:57.roughly three times as many UKIP voters in England and Wales as in

:21:58. > :22:02.Scotland? Could use that toehold to sale, look what you might end up

:22:03. > :22:19.with thanks to UK imposed elections? Yes. He will continue to

:22:20. > :22:23.do that. Think of what he was saying during the campaign. He said he

:22:24. > :22:31.wanted the SNP to take a third seat and in so doing, to squeeze out

:22:32. > :22:36.UKIP. He made that parallel. Advance for the SNP, setback for UKIP and he

:22:37. > :22:41.has not done that. Of course, it is legitimate for the SNP to say they

:22:42. > :22:46.topped the poll and that UKIP's position in Scotland is less than a

:22:47. > :22:51.England and in Wales. In terms of projection, in terms of image, it

:22:52. > :22:56.would have been easier for Alex Salmond, it was the objective, if he

:22:57. > :22:59.had been able to keep UKIP out of winning a seat at all and the

:23:00. > :23:05.whispering around here in Edinburgh to the other parties, the prounion

:23:06. > :23:10.parties, beyond UKIP, they say that to some extent, it makes Alex

:23:11. > :23:15.Salmond's narrative a bit more complicated and therefore from their

:23:16. > :23:21.perspective, that perhaps it assists the cause of the union are little.

:23:22. > :23:24.You cannot project forward from these European election results to

:23:25. > :23:28.the referendum, people will be voting on a different basis and in

:23:29. > :23:33.far greater numbers. The turnout is up in Scotland, but it is still only

:23:34. > :23:43.the third -- third of the electorate. Thank you. Let us have a

:23:44. > :23:47.look at Emily. I am going to explain what you are looking at. This is the

:23:48. > :23:52.result from 2009 coming you can see how much of the East Midlands is

:23:53. > :24:05.dominated by Conservative blue. What happens when I update this? You can

:24:06. > :24:10.see how much of that blue has been taken over by purple, leaving these

:24:11. > :24:15.pockets of red and the blues in the southern bit of the region. It is

:24:16. > :24:21.the same sort of picture that has been played out in eastern England

:24:22. > :24:26.as well, arguably even more dramatically. You can see where the

:24:27. > :24:31.blues have been left and a lot of the UKIP purple, right around the

:24:32. > :24:38.edges. This is Norfolk, Sussex, Essex, Great Yarmouth. This is the

:24:39. > :24:42.pattern which seems to be repeated, if I take you into the North,

:24:43. > :24:49.Yorkshire and the Humber, this is how the map has played out. You can

:24:50. > :24:54.see a lot of the red, the big cities have remained that way. If I take

:24:55. > :25:00.you back, that was how Yorkshire and the Humber looked at the beginning

:25:01. > :25:04.of the night, all this, the rural area of Conservative blue and that

:25:05. > :25:08.end version which is starting to come in. It has left a lot of the

:25:09. > :25:13.blue up here, but towards the southern area of the region, you

:25:14. > :25:16.will see a lot more of that colour changing place which means that UKIP

:25:17. > :25:22.is the party with the highest share of the vote in this area. Thank

:25:23. > :25:26.you. We are joined by two Conservatives to talk about what

:25:27. > :25:36.they should do about the rise of UKIP. The MEP for Southhampton and

:25:37. > :25:44.the Conservative MP for Windsor. What is your view? You once wanted

:25:45. > :25:50.an instant referendum on Europe? My view is that the Conservative... The

:25:51. > :25:54.encouraging thing is that the Conservative family, Britain is more

:25:55. > :25:59.Conservative than ever before and I do not see the as protest votes,

:26:00. > :26:04.what I see is that if you combine those people who are concerned about

:26:05. > :26:09.borders, are welfare as a nation, with the Conservative vote, we have

:26:10. > :26:14.a majority in 2015. I feel it was better last year, that we did look

:26:15. > :26:17.at having a referendum and then this issue would go away for the

:26:18. > :26:26.Conservative family, we would be joined together in going to that

:26:27. > :26:29.referendum. I am saddened for the MEPs and counsellors who have lost

:26:30. > :26:34.their seats. They have worked hard. How would you propose to reunite the

:26:35. > :26:41.Conservative family? You have UKIP candidates going to stand, it you

:26:42. > :26:44.want one to make way for the other? There are certain MPs in Westminster

:26:45. > :26:49.who would like to hear about some sort of pact, I am not one of

:26:50. > :26:53.those. The current mood must be from the party leaders, they need to have

:26:54. > :27:05.an open hard to what the Conservative MPs are saying. My

:27:06. > :27:08.view... Heart -- heart. People who believe in education and want

:27:09. > :27:11.tougher rules on education, it is a majority of the population and what

:27:12. > :27:15.we should be doing is not being rude about the way people have voted,

:27:16. > :27:20.they are not protest vote, they are in favour of Britain, and that is

:27:21. > :27:29.what the Conservative party represents. Would you want to see

:27:30. > :27:36.any change on Europe? What about a referendum? I think there is some

:27:37. > :27:41.merit. We have a few weeks. Disappointing results, but we are

:27:42. > :27:46.still in a good position for 2015 when more people come to the

:27:47. > :27:51.Conservative party, but we have a window of opportunity to have an

:27:52. > :27:56.open debate in the party to say, perhaps we need to look more closely

:27:57. > :28:01.at the immigration policies. Maybe we should look at the timing of the

:28:02. > :28:07.2017 referendum and look at bringing it forward, so that in 2015, people

:28:08. > :28:09.can see that if they vote for the Conservatives, there will be a

:28:10. > :28:16.referendum. We should consider this and consider it the attitude of the

:28:17. > :28:20.party in Westminster to make sure that we are welcoming and warm

:28:21. > :28:25.towards those people who are our natural voters, rather than

:28:26. > :28:31.dismissing things that are said. What would you do about this key

:28:32. > :28:38.immigration issue? What about free movement between the borders in the

:28:39. > :28:43.EU? Would you try and abolish that? I think the Home Secretary and Iain

:28:44. > :28:47.Duncan Smith are working on this and I hope that in the Queen's speech,

:28:48. > :28:51.especially because the Liberal Democrats have been told that

:28:52. > :28:54.Britain is not interested, that we should be firmer in the speech and

:28:55. > :28:59.make sure we are bringing forward Conservative measures that the

:29:00. > :29:04.country wants. We need to be honest and say, we cannot control our

:29:05. > :29:09.borders from EU immigration while we are members of the EU, therefore we

:29:10. > :29:14.must get in there, to try to get some sort of negotiation underway,

:29:15. > :29:19.so that when you vote Conservative, you know we are serious about

:29:20. > :29:26.regaining control of our borders. You must push on and speed up, how

:29:27. > :29:31.do you react to that? Quite literally, because they are dimming

:29:32. > :29:38.the lights here, so we need to push on and speed up. Get a candle and we

:29:39. > :29:46.will keep talking! What is your reaction? I do not think the timing

:29:47. > :29:51.of the referendum is an issue. I do not think it will make the slightest

:29:52. > :29:56.difference. It should happen, there is a real question of getting a

:29:57. > :30:01.majority to deliver and in out vote. I am scared, if you think of what

:30:02. > :30:07.happened just down the road in Eastleigh, two pro referendum

:30:08. > :30:13.Eurosceptic candidates, standing on virtually identical manifestoes

:30:14. > :30:18.between them got 53% of the vote and both lost, the seat was won by a

:30:19. > :30:24.Liberal Democrat. That only has to happen in a few places and yet

:30:25. > :30:34.again, the basically Eurosceptic majority in the country will fail to

:30:35. > :30:38.translate. Would you like to see a formal pact were UKIP and the

:30:39. > :30:45.Conservatives get together and do not fight each other at the general

:30:46. > :30:48.election. That decision will be made at a more senior level than mine and

:30:49. > :31:19.I think a formal pact will be ruled out by both sides. It would be a

:31:20. > :31:24.terrible pity of local rivalries and personal animosities and party

:31:25. > :31:29.tribalism was left again to disk -- deprive the British people whether

:31:30. > :31:32.or not to stay in the. Would the Conservative Party allow

:31:33. > :31:39.constituency not to put up a candidate if UKIP were standing

:31:40. > :31:43.there? It is not unprecedented. We fought five elections with the

:31:44. > :31:47.National Liberals and Churchill's 1951 majority was smaller than the

:31:48. > :31:52.number of National Liberal MPs and if you think that all sounds a very

:31:53. > :31:55.long time ago I will take you back to the last election where we have

:31:56. > :32:01.such a deal with the Ulster Unionist Party. It is not a heresy that I am

:32:02. > :32:06.proposing, some unprecedented new idea, it is a way of maximising the

:32:07. > :32:11.vote and ensuring that what I think is the majority is translated. If

:32:12. > :32:15.Miliband winds, fair and square with the majority of the vote, good luck

:32:16. > :32:21.to him, I will be annoyed about it but that is democracy. But if he

:32:22. > :32:28.gets in with a minority of a vote because the first past the post

:32:29. > :32:31.system is splitting the right. Three years ago we had a referendum on the

:32:32. > :32:35.tentative vote. You could have achieved what you are talking about

:32:36. > :32:38.without candidate standing down on people could go first and second

:32:39. > :32:42.choice because then people who really wanted UKIP and if they could

:32:43. > :32:46.not win locally voted Conservative second choice, you would win more

:32:47. > :32:52.seats. Was it a mistake, given the rise of UKIP, for the Conservatives

:32:53. > :32:56.to oppose autodetect vote? I think the worst possible reason to change

:32:57. > :32:59.a voting system is to favour or disfavour political party. Surely

:33:00. > :33:05.you should do what is the best thing in principle. I am interested in how

:33:06. > :33:10.you think this can come about because both leaderships have said

:33:11. > :33:13.no. Do you believe that at local level there will be a nod and a wink

:33:14. > :33:18.and there could be two candidates, one Tory and one UKIP but one does

:33:19. > :33:22.not try very hard and it is accepted that in this area it is your turn

:33:23. > :33:32.and maybe in the next or sweet it is someone else's, how does it happen?

:33:33. > :33:36.-- in the next-door seat. Candidates do run for more than one party. In

:33:37. > :33:41.the heady days of the coalition when people were looking forward to

:33:42. > :33:44.having possibly look joint Tory and Lib Dem candidates a minor change

:33:45. > :33:48.was made in the law that allows a candidate to stand for more than one

:33:49. > :33:52.party suburbia: Is there. That is also the answer to people who say

:33:53. > :33:55.there was no way we can do pacts or deals, to make a rather obvious

:33:56. > :34:06.point, what is the thing we are doing with the Lib Dems at the

:34:07. > :34:09.moment? You are not running an election and the party leadership

:34:10. > :34:12.have said they would not allow a candidature run for more than one

:34:13. > :34:15.party so you would have to do it without their approval or you would

:34:16. > :34:17.have to do it with a change in the leadership. I hope I would persuade

:34:18. > :34:21.them to change as I did about having an in /out referendum. If UKIP wants

:34:22. > :34:24.out, why would people who want out to vote Conservative who want to

:34:25. > :34:30.renegotiate and whose leader is already saying he would vote for a

:34:31. > :34:34.yes vote, stay in? There is no other way than getting out referendum

:34:35. > :34:38.other than through a majority in the House of Commons who will deliver a

:34:39. > :34:43.referendum through the lobby. With the best will in the world Nigel

:34:44. > :34:47.does not imagine he will be the next Prime Minister with a huge phalanx

:34:48. > :34:50.of MPs behind in, realistically if you want the chance to vote on

:34:51. > :34:55.leaving then you need to vote for the candidates who will deliver that

:34:56. > :35:02.outcome. How credible is the idea of renegotiation? It depends what you

:35:03. > :35:08.mean by it. As it has been set out by the Foreign Office, we are Laurie

:35:09. > :35:11.asking for anything. It does not require an intergovernmental

:35:12. > :35:14.conference. Nick Clegg has said he would be happy with the declared

:35:15. > :35:20.aims of the government because they will not amount to anything. I would

:35:21. > :35:24.rather see a proper renegotiation modelled on something closer to the

:35:25. > :35:28.Swiss where they are in the free market but outside the political

:35:29. > :35:37.institutions, something like an associate membership where we have

:35:38. > :35:40.the primacy of UK law and critically the freedom to sign bilateral trade

:35:41. > :35:46.agreements with countries outside the European Union. Do you see the

:35:47. > :35:50.rise of the National front in France as a encouragement in that sense,

:35:51. > :35:54.young people in France are turning against the European project, or

:35:55. > :36:01.does it rather dismay you? I think it is the opposite. I think we have

:36:02. > :36:04.had people promising the closer European integration in general and

:36:05. > :36:10.that the euro would bring people together and make the countries get

:36:11. > :36:13.on better. There were a few eccentric Eurosceptics in Britain 20

:36:14. > :36:19.years ago warning that it would stoke extremism and leads to the

:36:20. > :36:22.rise of anti-democratic... I am afraid that what is happening in

:36:23. > :36:26.France now is largely the achievement of the French

:36:27. > :36:30.establishment parties. Thank you very much. We must leave you before

:36:31. > :36:34.they actually turn the lights out, not on what you are saying but on

:36:35. > :36:39.the count in Southampton. Thank you for joining us. Yes, they have cut

:36:40. > :36:43.your microphone which is an even more effective way of saying goodbye

:36:44. > :36:48.to you but thank you very much for joining us! Let us have a pause now

:36:49. > :36:52.and a round-up of all of the latest news and then we will come back

:36:53. > :36:57.here. Polling stations have closed in all

:36:58. > :37:01.28 European Union member countries after four days of voting for the

:37:02. > :37:06.European Parliament. Chris Mason has the summary of election results so

:37:07. > :37:12.far in the UK. Here we go, cheers! When you have

:37:13. > :37:16.one, champagne tastes good, even if there are no glasses around. This

:37:17. > :37:26.was the East of England where UKIP are celebrating everywhere. The

:37:27. > :37:30.first seat goes to the UKIP party. People's Army of UKIP have spoken

:37:31. > :37:34.tonight and deliver just about the most extraordinary result that has

:37:35. > :37:39.been seen in British politics for 100 years and I am proud to have led

:37:40. > :37:43.them to that. In a way it is surprising and has not happened

:37:44. > :37:46.before because we have three parties in British politics who have led us

:37:47. > :37:50.into a common market that has developed into a political union who

:37:51. > :37:54.have twisted and turned with a variety of promises to give us a

:37:55. > :37:59.referendum that they have never actually kept I promise you this,

:38:00. > :38:05.you haven't heard the last of us. Thank you very much. There are two

:38:06. > :38:09.clear trends tonight, UKIP doing well and the Lib Dems facing the

:38:10. > :38:15.wipe out with just one MEP elected so far. The Lib Dem president was

:38:16. > :38:18.even defeated by his earpiece. Neither the Labour Party or the

:38:19. > :38:22.Tories have the back clip -- backbone to stand up to UKIP. We

:38:23. > :38:27.took the popular side of the argument and we have been punished

:38:28. > :38:30.but I would do it all over again. Labour and the Conservatives are now

:38:31. > :38:38.pondering out loud how on earth to respond to UKIP. We will respond by

:38:39. > :38:42.making clear that we can fix the relationship between Britain and

:38:43. > :38:48.Europe and deliver real change and give people a say in a referendum. I

:38:49. > :38:53.think that UKIP have been the symptom, if you like, of people's

:38:54. > :38:58.disaffection with politics and they are using their vote in the European

:38:59. > :39:01.Parliamentary elections to express their dissatisfaction with politics

:39:02. > :39:08.and we have to to respond to that and listen to their concerns. This

:39:09. > :39:16.was the scene at Manchester town Hall as BNP leader Nick Griffin

:39:17. > :39:20.arrived. He later lost his seat. It is pictures like these that tell the

:39:21. > :39:26.story of the night, smiling for a picture has never been easier for

:39:27. > :39:30.UKIP. Elsewhere in Europe and tears to the

:39:31. > :39:33.parties have made big gains according to exit polls. It appears

:39:34. > :39:38.to signal a shift towards parties that want to slash the powers of the

:39:39. > :39:43.European Union or abolish it altogether. In France the

:39:44. > :39:48.anti-immigration, anti-EU European -- National Front is claiming

:39:49. > :39:53.victory. The governing Socialists were beaten into third place and

:39:54. > :39:58.Marine Le Pen said the people have spoken loud and clear. Tonight I

:39:59. > :40:04.thank the people of France. We were right to put our trust in them. The

:40:05. > :40:08.sovereign people have spoken like at every great moment of our history.

:40:09. > :40:13.To the coalition of those who no longer believe in France, those who

:40:14. > :40:16.no longer believe the French are worthy of liberty sovereignty, the

:40:17. > :40:26.sovereign people of spoken loudly to say that they want to be master of

:40:27. > :40:31.own destiny. In Greece the radical left party came first. This surge in

:40:32. > :40:34.support for the hard left raises doubts about how long the Coalition

:40:35. > :40:38.Government can last with a parliamentary majority of just two

:40:39. > :40:55.seats. The neo-Nazi party were ranked third with up to 10% of the

:40:56. > :41:00.vote. That is a round-up of news. Back to this fabulous circus, this

:41:01. > :41:06.great Circle, the election Centre. Fabulous, isn't it? It is all an

:41:07. > :41:10.illusion. The news we are getting from London, remember we are waiting

:41:11. > :41:15.for this London result to come in, it is that they are now thinking now

:41:16. > :41:18.apparently, because of whatever it is that has happened at Tower

:41:19. > :41:22.Hamlets that is holding up the vote because they were counting and then

:41:23. > :41:25.they had to stop for 24 hours and they are counting a mayoral election

:41:26. > :41:30.and the local election on the European elections and they may now

:41:31. > :41:34.just go home and tell everyone else to leave them to get on with it and

:41:35. > :41:39.they will come back tomorrow, Monday, Tuesday, and sort it all

:41:40. > :41:53.out. We may not actually have the formal London results tonight or

:41:54. > :41:55.this morning. Emily is getting very close to having every other borough

:41:56. > :41:58.except Tower Hamlets there which gives us a good idea of what the

:41:59. > :42:01.popular vote is, not necessarily what the actual voters and how the

:42:02. > :42:03.MEPs would break up but these are European elections and it is very

:42:04. > :42:05.important that whatever your views about European Parliament and the

:42:06. > :42:08.efficacy of the Parliament and the influence it has on our lives, to

:42:09. > :42:11.look at the structure and what I would like to do is to ask Jeremy to

:42:12. > :42:14.show us how the European Parliament is now looking at how it differs

:42:15. > :42:19.from how it was before and then I will talk to my guests about what

:42:20. > :42:31.the impact of that will be so Jeremy, could you kick off about how

:42:32. > :42:34.it is looking. Let me bring on the map. These are

:42:35. > :42:37.the shares in the circles beneath the globes. We will look at France

:42:38. > :42:44.and look at some of the big stories tonight. Let us look at the French

:42:45. > :42:47.scoreboard. This is the remarkable result for the Front National and

:42:48. > :42:51.the two parties in second and third are being pushed down. If I show you

:42:52. > :42:55.a graft it will show you how dramatic it is because it will show

:42:56. > :43:01.us whether Front National have come from. This is the last ten years,

:43:02. > :43:08.three European elections including tonight. Let us bring on 2004. You

:43:09. > :43:14.can see here that the Front National are really very low and the two main

:43:15. > :43:23.parties are below them. Even going forwards to 2009, what happens? They

:43:24. > :43:27.are still at 6%. They do make a kind of a breakthrough in some municipal

:43:28. > :43:31.elections in 2012 so there is a fine of something coming but this crop is

:43:32. > :43:37.still quite dramatic, look at that. Look at how the grey line goes

:43:38. > :43:41.through the roof suddenly. They show the two main traditional parties in

:43:42. > :43:47.France a clean pair of heels. Now we will look at Greece. It is a big

:43:48. > :43:50.story of the night because Greece have so many political problems and

:43:51. > :43:57.we will look at their scoreboard and remind ourselves of their scores

:43:58. > :44:12.here. The key thing is that Syriza was not implicated in the crash. New

:44:13. > :44:19.Democracy other right-leaning party and PASOK are the big losers. If is

:44:20. > :44:28.the Greek story. Focus on PASOK. This goes back ten years. PASOK are

:44:29. > :44:33.in first place and Syriza are at zero. This is the boom. Then we go

:44:34. > :44:38.through 2009 and the financial crisis which starts to rattle Greece

:44:39. > :44:42.and then watch this. Gradually the graft develops here and you can see

:44:43. > :44:45.it is PASOK that are taking a pounding and the red line goes down

:44:46. > :44:56.and by the end of the graft, where are we now? You can see PASOK here

:44:57. > :45:00.have been overtaken by Golden Dawn and New Democracy have been coming

:45:01. > :45:07.off what was not bad period after the crash and this new group are

:45:08. > :45:10.taking over right at the top of the graft for Syriza. Greek politics

:45:11. > :45:22.transformed by their economic problems.

:45:23. > :45:29.Here we have 2009. We were mentioning the biggest group, the

:45:30. > :45:37.European People's party. Then this rather difficult situation where the

:45:38. > :45:50.British Conservatives tried to set up the ECR. How is the Parliament

:45:51. > :45:59.now? Let us look. So far, 186 for the EU PPE. Go back behind me and we

:46:00. > :46:15.will see how the Socialists are doing. 40 grains, 47 Liberal

:46:16. > :46:21.Democrats -- greens. The interesting story here is what happens on this

:46:22. > :46:24.side. British Conservatives are not yet in that number. In order to have

:46:25. > :46:35.a grouping in the European Parliament, you need 25 MEPs. The

:46:36. > :46:40.UKIP one does not yet entered the British UKIP figures, once they go

:46:41. > :46:45.win, there are is still a country short. And they form the script, you

:46:46. > :46:50.have a question about what happens to the 90 and that is a very high

:46:51. > :46:54.figure because of the Front Nationale. What do they do? They

:46:55. > :47:02.have rules about how they form a group, we do not know who they will

:47:03. > :47:08.go into alliance yet and the right looks fragmented. There is an

:47:09. > :47:11.interesting contradiction there, but what stories we are seeing out of

:47:12. > :47:24.Europe tonight. We will speak to our correspondent

:47:25. > :47:30.in Brussels shortly. We want to talk about Front Nationale. They keep

:47:31. > :47:37.saying they are not as they were, Marine Le Pen kept saying we are not

:47:38. > :47:46.anti-Jewish and yet UKIP refuse to have anything to do with them. Has

:47:47. > :47:52.things -- have things changed that much? When we look at the messages

:47:53. > :47:55.that Marine Le Pen has made, that has changed, they have moderated

:47:56. > :48:03.their message since she took over the party. They are not being seen

:48:04. > :48:11.as a racist and anti-Semitic party. In order to get a quarter of the

:48:12. > :48:14.votes, you cannot have an overly racist or anti-Semitic message. That

:48:15. > :48:20.is what you have seen across Europe. In order to get to that

:48:21. > :48:30.number of votes, they need to moderate and appeal to a broader

:48:31. > :48:34.audience. It is definitely the Nationalists, it is

:48:35. > :48:39.anti-immigration, but not as extreme as it has been before. What they

:48:40. > :48:44.have done, we do not know, they are not in government. It is about their

:48:45. > :48:48.rhetoric. When you look at what UKIP says and what it stands for, do you

:48:49. > :48:54.think they will get on well together? It is a fiction that one

:48:55. > :48:58.is incompatible with the other? They are certainly different. In a lot of

:48:59. > :49:11.policy areas, when we do not look at immigration, we do not know what

:49:12. > :49:12.UKIP thinks. They do not have a well-developed manifesto. These

:49:13. > :49:15.parties boat more against each other. You could have a far right

:49:16. > :49:25.group to get all the benefits of being together -- vote. They do not

:49:26. > :49:32.want to pull out of Europe. I think they would. I thought it was just

:49:33. > :49:45.about moderating immigration. We will see what happens. What is your

:49:46. > :49:48.view about the economies of Europe? You saw everything Jeremy said about

:49:49. > :49:58.Greece and France and we have not heard anything about Italy. They

:49:59. > :50:05.were last to vote. The economy has played into the election results. We

:50:06. > :50:09.see anti-Europe party rising everywhere. In Greece, we heard that

:50:10. > :50:15.it could threaten the coalition, but I do not think it will. That is a

:50:16. > :50:20.sigh of relief for Greece and all of the Eurozone which has been looking

:50:21. > :50:25.to stave of this crisis. It will be interesting to see in Italy what the

:50:26. > :50:29.results are. The Prime Minister does not have a democratic mandate, he

:50:30. > :50:37.was not voted into office and he will be looking for a big win. What

:50:38. > :50:41.is your view about the future of the Eurozone? The most likely scenario

:50:42. > :50:47.is better than what it looked like two years ago. Slow and sluggish

:50:48. > :50:51.growth and slow inflation for the next ten years which will be

:50:52. > :50:56.painful, particularly for the country is trying to crawl out of

:50:57. > :51:00.recession. It will make it hard for these countries to stabilise debt

:51:01. > :51:05.without any kind of robust growth. In the medium to long-term, some of

:51:06. > :51:09.these countries are unsustainable from a public debt burden point of

:51:10. > :51:14.view and we may need debt write-downs for the weaker

:51:15. > :51:18.countries. Five years from now, what has happened tonight might be

:51:19. > :51:23.happening all over again, exacerbated by an economy that has

:51:24. > :51:27.done nothing to help the likes of the young French or people

:51:28. > :51:33.unemployed in Spain? In France, we got the figures for this year,

:51:34. > :51:41.things are not growing, it is meant to be part of the core of Europe,

:51:42. > :51:45.the French economy is in big trouble and voters are noting that. There is

:51:46. > :51:50.a lot of frustration with the French government. When I speak with

:51:51. > :51:53.government officials in Berlin, we spend more time talking about France

:51:54. > :52:01.and everyone is worried about France. Do you blame the Eurozone

:52:02. > :52:07.and the EU for this? I do not think that is the case. I would blame the

:52:08. > :52:11.response to the crisis for this. All of the weaker countries had to do

:52:12. > :52:15.all of the adjusting, trying to model their economies after the

:52:16. > :52:19.German economy. The stronger ones are not adjusting at all and it

:52:20. > :52:23.means that the weaker countries are going further into recession. The

:52:24. > :52:29.only alternative for the weaker countries was to leave the

:52:30. > :52:37.Eurozone. They could have. That would have helped in the immediate

:52:38. > :52:40.term, but there were a lot of structural reforms in Greece which

:52:41. > :52:47.need to take place for sustainable growth. Are you saying that the

:52:48. > :52:57.poorer countries are being punished by the other ones? Yes. In the

:52:58. > :53:02.northern European countries, it is often viewed as a morality tale. The

:53:03. > :53:07.weaker countries should have to make all the adjustments, in their

:53:08. > :53:11.opinion. Part of this crisis was a balance of payments crisis and that

:53:12. > :53:20.was down to policies in the weaker countries and the stronger ones.

:53:21. > :53:24.There has been huge shock value in France. There are people in Brussels

:53:25. > :53:29.who would have expected the Greeks to do that, they would expect the

:53:30. > :53:35.Brits to vote for it. They discounted at a long time ago, but

:53:36. > :53:47.for the French, the motor of Europe, who kept us out of Europe.

:53:48. > :53:53.There will be people who are worried about Nigel Farage, but the real

:53:54. > :54:00.concern will be about Marine Le Pen and what the Front Nationale says

:54:01. > :54:10.about the situation. The fact of the crash in the Eurozone which made

:54:11. > :54:15.many countries in Europe more nationalist, many people hoped the

:54:16. > :54:21.crash would end meal liberalism, it has done the opposite, as it did in

:54:22. > :54:28.the 1930s. It led to the politics of the extreme right in Europe and we

:54:29. > :54:31.are not seen that on the same scale, but on a minimal scale. The question

:54:32. > :54:35.that has been raised about how these right-wing parties will act, some

:54:36. > :54:40.people feared there would be a blocking minority, they would get

:54:41. > :54:44.33% of the seats in the European Parliament, and they could block

:54:45. > :54:49.legislation, that will not happen, they will be fragmented. They will

:54:50. > :54:54.try and delegitimise the European Parliament to make it appear like a

:54:55. > :54:58.circus, make it appear lest estimable in the eyes of European

:54:59. > :55:03.voters. That is the danger from the point of view of those who would

:55:04. > :55:07.like to see an integrated Europe. Our Europe correspondent in

:55:08. > :55:14.Brussels, good evening, I hope you can hear all of that. It is curious,

:55:15. > :55:18.this great experiment, which was designed to bind Europe together,

:55:19. > :55:27.tonight we are seeing Europe fall apart over the effect of being in it

:55:28. > :55:31.and suffering as a result. I think there are a couple of things to

:55:32. > :55:36.focus on and firstly, if it is right to describe what is happening in

:55:37. > :55:40.Britain tonight as an earthquake, certainly we have had earthquakes in

:55:41. > :55:45.France, an earthquake in Denmark, were heavily Eurosceptic party has

:55:46. > :55:51.taken more of the vote than anyone else. There is Greece and in Spain,

:55:52. > :55:59.popular sport -- support for the main centrist parties, falling from

:56:00. > :56:04.80% in 2009 to below 50%. In Germany, Angela Merkel's support has

:56:05. > :56:09.stood up solidly, but even there there is an anti-single currency

:56:10. > :56:16.party polling at around 7%. They will have MEPs. It looks as though

:56:17. > :56:21.if the exit polls are right, the Germans may even have an neo-Nazi AM

:56:22. > :56:28.EP. There is an insurgency across Europe. The European Parliament will

:56:29. > :56:33.still be dominated by the two centre-right blocks. That much is

:56:34. > :56:36.clear. Were some of your commentators were discussing, what

:56:37. > :56:43.will be the reaction Brussels, the big fear will be that in the three

:56:44. > :56:47.main countries that push the European Union, Germany and France

:56:48. > :56:55.and Britain, in France and Britain, there is intense pressure from the

:56:56. > :56:59.radical right, the extremes, on the centre-right parties, the

:57:00. > :57:05.Conservatives and the new MEP in France. Nicholas are cosy, last week

:57:06. > :57:10.in the run-up to the election, said that perhaps there needs to be a

:57:11. > :57:20.French and at German alliance -- Nicolas Sarkozy. He spoke off and

:57:21. > :57:25.needs to end an agreement, the freedom of movement across the

:57:26. > :57:30.European Union. Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage are obviously influencing

:57:31. > :57:35.domestic politics and Angela Merkel as well, although the vote against

:57:36. > :57:39.the euro in her country is far lower than the UKIP vote and the national

:57:40. > :57:45.front vote in France. Angela Merkel is going to have to listen to those

:57:46. > :57:46.concerns from those people on the right in her country -- Front

:57:47. > :57:58.Nationale. How long will it be before we start

:57:59. > :58:04.to see the implications of tonight take effect, both in the countries

:58:05. > :58:13.within the EU and the organisation and decision making and progression

:58:14. > :58:18.of the EU itself? In terms of the EU itself, so much depends on what the

:58:19. > :58:22.reaction of the centre-right bloc and centre-left bloc is likely to

:58:23. > :58:37.be. The centre-right bloc is likely to take the largest number of seats.

:58:38. > :58:39.Their leader, says it is his right to be the President. European

:58:40. > :58:45.governments will have something to say about that. How is his bloc and

:58:46. > :58:52.the main social Democratic bloc going to respond to this message? Do

:58:53. > :58:56.they simply say, we have the bulk of Europe behind us, if you look at the

:58:57. > :59:00.absolute numbers, therefore we can afford to borrow these messages, or

:59:01. > :59:05.do they start to listen to them. If they do, they will have to start to

:59:06. > :59:09.deconstruct that project and I suspect that the something they do

:59:10. > :59:14.not wish to start doing. Is there a kind of arrogance on the part of

:59:15. > :59:20.these people who are often said to run the commission and put forward

:59:21. > :59:24.these proposals that will... You describe one of the candidates as

:59:25. > :59:30.saying he has a right to become this, I write to become that, it

:59:31. > :59:37.does not sound very responsive -- a right. That is coming from the fact

:59:38. > :59:41.that this institution, under the Lisbon Treaty, was given more power

:59:42. > :59:44.and it was also written into the treaty that the results of these

:59:45. > :59:51.elections tonight would have to be listened to and taken into account

:59:52. > :59:54.by the member states, the national governments, when they come to

:59:55. > :00:02.decide who is the next commission President. Over the knack -- next

:00:03. > :00:05.few months, it has been concerted, concerted campaign, to say that the

:00:06. > :00:09.leading candidate of the winning group tonight should be the next

:00:10. > :00:13.commission President. That is why he is asserting his right tonight.

:00:14. > :00:17.Behind this is, he would know there is a very long way to go if he were

:00:18. > :00:21.to become the commission President and I think most people in this town

:00:22. > :00:42.would put money on the fact that he would not. That is a very specific

:00:43. > :00:46.point. If you think about the last 60 years of European integration, it

:00:47. > :00:53.has been written into the DNA of everybody involved in the project

:00:54. > :00:57.that there was this greatest -- greater European integration. What

:00:58. > :01:00.is pretty hard for the Europhiles that work here and elsewhere, what

:01:01. > :01:04.is pretty hard for them to come to terms with is that in some

:01:05. > :01:09.countries, and it seems tonight quite a few countries, there are

:01:10. > :01:14.genuine and growing concerns about how far that integration project has

:01:15. > :01:18.taken in Europe and whether or not people in those countries wish to

:01:19. > :01:23.see it continue in that direction. They are going to have to work out a

:01:24. > :01:27.policy response to that about what the institutions will do because

:01:28. > :01:31.presumably if they do not, and let us assume this is not just a bit

:01:32. > :01:35.because of the economic situation across Europe, if it is not just a

:01:36. > :01:39.blip because of the UK can -- economic situation across Europe,

:01:40. > :01:42.they do need to answer a growing number within the electorate who are

:01:43. > :01:47.worried about what Brussels does what it stands for. Does that mean

:01:48. > :01:52.that in the run-up to the general election a year away David Cameron

:01:53. > :01:57.is making a promise to renegotiate the relationship of Britain with the

:01:58. > :02:00.EU will find it easier and may even find some support within the

:02:01. > :02:07.European Parliament for what he is suggesting. Probably not so much

:02:08. > :02:11.within the European Parliament, although clearly if you have the

:02:12. > :02:14.likes of Marine Le Pen and others on a farm more Eurosceptic platform and

:02:15. > :02:20.the Danish People's party that I mentioned a few moments ago, their

:02:21. > :02:25.direct callers for more Denmark and less EU. They do not want to pull

:02:26. > :02:28.Denmark out of the buck they want less EU interference in things like

:02:29. > :02:36.the welfare state and immigration and the kind of issues that Britain

:02:37. > :02:40.-- in Britain is so prevalent. There are many people in the party that

:02:41. > :02:43.are talking in those terms so there is more support but what really

:02:44. > :02:51.counts is what Angela Merkel is thinking. If Angela Merkel,

:02:52. > :02:54.specifically, because let us face it she is your's strongest politician,

:02:55. > :02:58.she is the most important leader of all the national leaders in Europe,

:02:59. > :03:06.if she is thinking tonight that she does actually have to tackle in some

:03:07. > :03:10.small way a slight growing of Euro scepticism in her country, let us

:03:11. > :03:15.not get it out of proportion, it is not France or what happened in

:03:16. > :03:21.Britain tonight but there were 7% of votes that went to a party that will

:03:22. > :03:27.probably see an end to the euro or at least Germany's participation

:03:28. > :03:31.particularly in the southern countries, does she have to extend

:03:32. > :03:36.-- address it and to what extent? -- you also have to address concerns

:03:37. > :03:39.that have been raised in recent months about benefit tourism with EU

:03:40. > :03:44.migrants coming into Germany and taking from the German welfare

:03:45. > :03:48.state? If she believes that she has to address some of those concerns in

:03:49. > :03:58.policy terms then I suspect David Cameron will find some leverage

:03:59. > :04:03.that. Thank you very much indeed. It has go back to London. We have nine

:04:04. > :04:08.of the 11 regions, two countries remember, Scotland and Wales, we

:04:09. > :04:13.have nine of the 11 of Great Britain in but we still do not have London

:04:14. > :04:17.in. MLA, you can give us a fairly good idea now of how London looks.

:04:18. > :04:23.People are getting very impatient for London. We will go to city

:04:24. > :04:30.London -- City Hall in a few moments. First we have the big

:04:31. > :04:33.picture. UKIP are at the top of the scoreboard on 29% share of the goat

:04:34. > :04:36.with the Conservatives in second place, they are just down a little

:04:37. > :04:40.bit on their position last time with Labour making games that put them

:04:41. > :04:44.pretty much a neck and neck although these folks have been rounded up

:04:45. > :04:48.with the Conservatives. The Greens are coming in at fourth place here

:04:49. > :04:52.even though their share of the vote is dropping slightly but it is not

:04:53. > :04:57.dropping as much as the Lib Dems share. You can see they are down 7%

:04:58. > :05:01.there. As you were saying we have been getting some of the London ones

:05:02. > :05:04.in and there is a very mixed picture. One thing we can say

:05:05. > :05:09.overall is that the UKIP surge is not as strong here as we have seen

:05:10. > :05:12.in other parts of the country. If I can show you a couple of very

:05:13. > :05:22.interesting ones, I can take you into Hackney. Here you do not see

:05:23. > :05:26.UKIP on the map at all. Labour has a huge 54% share of the vote, over

:05:27. > :05:30.half of the vote here and it is the greens that are on second place in

:05:31. > :05:36.18%. The Conservatives are coming in on a 11. Let me show you another one

:05:37. > :05:41.with a similar sort of picture, once again the Green party are in second

:05:42. > :05:46.place in north London. Labour are on 48% with the greens on 16%. UKIP is

:05:47. > :05:50.down in fourth place but still getting 10% share of the vote. What

:05:51. > :05:57.we are seeing if I take you to somewhere like Bromley on the edge,

:05:58. > :06:03.closer to Essex and those regions there, more white British families

:06:04. > :06:06.tend to put the UKIP don't hire. That is more of a characterisation

:06:07. > :06:12.of Bromley than somewhere like Hackney or Lewisham that we were

:06:13. > :06:16.looking at before. The Conservatives are in first place but UKIP is just

:06:17. > :06:21.behind them. Another interesting one that has come in, if you think of

:06:22. > :06:25.Saturn at a local level you think of a Lib Dems citadel, Lib Dem council

:06:26. > :06:31.that they still have left in London. -- Saturday. Look at what

:06:32. > :06:36.has happened here, UKIP on a 27% share of the vote. The Lib Dems have

:06:37. > :06:42.taken a really big hit. Maybe it is just on Europe or on these elections

:06:43. > :06:47.but they are down 6% in Sutton, a place that they would think of as a

:06:48. > :06:51.stronghold. Emily, maybe you cannot do this...

:06:52. > :06:56.Try me! Can you go back to the overall

:06:57. > :07:05.picture, the overall share in the UK as far as we have it at the moment?

:07:06. > :07:08.This is the Great Britain picture. 29% UKIP at the very top with the

:07:09. > :07:14.Conservatives in second place and labour just behind. The Green party

:07:15. > :07:19.are in the fourth place and the Lib Dems are down in fifth place. They

:07:20. > :07:24.have the biggest drop in terms of their share of the vote. Let us

:07:25. > :07:29.focus on labour for a moment. Labour are showing just a smidgen behind

:07:30. > :07:34.the Conservatives in third place. Consequences for them? The first

:07:35. > :07:43.thing to say is that if they get a big vote in London and that might

:07:44. > :07:46.happen, they would just go second place to the Conservatives in

:07:47. > :07:50.Britain as a whole. Northern Ireland is on a different voting system with

:07:51. > :07:57.a different system of parties. It would be the worst result by an

:07:58. > :08:07.opposition party I am sure since this voting system existed. The

:08:08. > :08:11.Tories in 1999 or 38% of the vote and just before David Cameron got to

:08:12. > :08:18.be Prime Minister and was 27%. Now Labour will say to you that the

:08:19. > :08:20.right tend to do better in these elections and these are not

:08:21. > :08:28.predictors of general elections and they will come up with a series of

:08:29. > :08:30.explanations for this but they have barely squeaked past the

:08:31. > :08:38.Conservatives and they have done worse than opposition parties which

:08:39. > :08:44.we were talking about earlier in the evening. It would not be an

:08:45. > :08:48.impressive performance. That is absolutely right. It is not an

:08:49. > :08:52.impressive performance. There will be great worries in the Labour Party

:08:53. > :08:55.as to how they can alter their stance and their policies or

:08:56. > :09:00.communicate their policies better before the general election. I agree

:09:01. > :09:04.with what Matthew said, that in an old way this outcome makes David

:09:05. > :09:07.Cameron's task easier because Angela Merkel will be keener to keep

:09:08. > :09:10.Britain in the European Union and she will be aware of the strength of

:09:11. > :09:19.Euroscepticism in many countries and she will want to head it off by

:09:20. > :09:22.helping to find a package for David Cameron that could enable him to

:09:23. > :09:24.persuade his own party and perhaps the country that Britain should stay

:09:25. > :09:28.in Europe. We need a general election first! If I had to bet I

:09:29. > :09:32.would say there is a 50/50 chance that in five years we will not be in

:09:33. > :09:36.the European Union. We will come back to that in a moment. Do you

:09:37. > :09:40.think the description of the position of Angela Merkel is when

:09:41. > :09:45.you would agree with? She will try and help? She is of course very

:09:46. > :09:49.important but another important issue that David Cameron may be

:09:50. > :09:54.looking to get to the table is that of immigration and how to make sure

:09:55. > :09:57.the borders are not so open and immigrants cannot claim the same

:09:58. > :10:01.welfare benefit Cancer one. The message tonight from the far right

:10:02. > :10:05.Eurosceptic parties that have done well are not only about Europe but

:10:06. > :10:10.also about the open borders and what to do. In capitals around Europe we

:10:11. > :10:15.will seek governing parties thinking that maybe they should reform

:10:16. > :10:21.Schengen and that would be to David Cameron's advantage. The crucial

:10:22. > :10:25.thing is whether any signs of that came before a general election

:10:26. > :10:29.because we have seen no sign of UKIP being willing to back off in the

:10:30. > :10:32.face of the Conservatives and what Dan Hannan and other Tory

:10:33. > :10:37.Eurosceptics describe as a split of the Tory family would go on and when

:10:38. > :10:41.we have seen splits, as we did with the Labour Party and the STP in the

:10:42. > :10:46.early 1980s, that has proved fatal to those wings of politics and it

:10:47. > :10:52.may well prove fatal to the Conservatives. We will come back to

:10:53. > :10:55.Labour and the Conservatives in a moment but Tim is still in City Hall

:10:56. > :11:01.which is empty. What is the news? About half an arid

:11:02. > :11:04.go we had some reports that they were thinking about an option of

:11:05. > :11:10.just calling it a day here and coming back tomorrow or on Tuesday.

:11:11. > :11:14.There was a discussion amongst the Lewisham and City Hall team about

:11:15. > :11:21.doing that. Whether that was a tactic or it was a serious option,

:11:22. > :11:25.they were told within the last half-hour again by Tower Hamlets

:11:26. > :11:28.that they were very close, that the returning officer in Tower Hamlets

:11:29. > :11:33.is absolutely intent on getting this done and finished today and so all

:11:34. > :11:37.of about five minutes ago we were supposed to have an update. We have

:11:38. > :11:42.just been told, my colleague has just been told by the press officer

:11:43. > :11:47.dealing with things here that Tower Hamlets is very optimistic about

:11:48. > :11:54.getting this done very soon but, to be honest, I have lost count

:11:55. > :12:00.really. What time is it anyway? We may have the referendum results

:12:01. > :12:04.before this! It is coming up to 2:15am. It sounds like promises,

:12:05. > :12:07.promises. A remarkable thing coming out of Tower Hamlets, I am told

:12:08. > :12:12.there is a recount on one of the council wards, there is one last

:12:13. > :12:17.council ward still today. It is a recount on that. Please, do not let

:12:18. > :12:20.me have to wait for that one! You wait there are sluggers you have to

:12:21. > :12:24.when we will wait here until four, five, six o'clock in the morning

:12:25. > :12:27.before Tower Hamlets deigns to give its answer. They are holding

:12:28. > :12:33.everything up until everything is done, aren't they? What about the

:12:34. > :12:36.mayoral election which was very controversial in Tower Hamlets with

:12:37. > :12:43.the sitting mayor coming under a lot of flak from his political

:12:44. > :12:48.opponents? Absolutely. That was a really interesting contest. As you

:12:49. > :12:55.know there had been a BBC documentary as well which made

:12:56. > :12:58.suggestions of votes of grants being given in return for political

:12:59. > :13:06.support which was absolutely firmly did guide by the independent

:13:07. > :13:09.candidate there. -- denied. It looks as though that could have rallied

:13:10. > :13:17.support to him and he may have won by a fairly comfortable margin after

:13:18. > :13:22.the votes had been reallocated. It looks as though there may have been

:13:23. > :13:26.a sense in which that backfired for Labour again. What we are dealing

:13:27. > :13:30.with now, and apparently it is very close, I was told this and it may

:13:31. > :13:35.have changed since then, that the council composition is about 18 each

:13:36. > :13:42.and there are 45 wards sunny be recounted today and apparently they

:13:43. > :13:46.are just being challenged, discounting is going so slowly

:13:47. > :13:50.because the groups of supporters are watching every single vote and in

:13:51. > :13:56.the ward for Bromley there is a recount now. Quite right too, these

:13:57. > :14:00.things have to be done. Do you know the longest ever recount was... I do

:14:01. > :14:04.not know when it was. It was in the north-east and it went on and on and

:14:05. > :14:08.on and in the end when they got the result they rang the church bells. I

:14:09. > :14:21.think it was in the mid-19th century! You were saying earlier and

:14:22. > :14:25.joking about, there has been no activity here for five hours or four

:14:26. > :14:29.hours but down in the canteen which is not serving any food or drink

:14:30. > :14:33.incidentally, I will just say that by the by, but people are leaving

:14:34. > :14:38.now. The candidates from all of the main parties are still there but

:14:39. > :14:44.their supporters are not. The Green candidate's baby has woken up and by

:14:45. > :14:49.the time the result comes back there will be about a third of the people

:14:50. > :14:55.who were here an hour ago although the chair of the London Green party

:14:56. > :15:03.is still here knitting, one against nuclear weapons is the organisation

:15:04. > :15:08.she is knitting for. I am sure we will hear from you again before the

:15:09. > :15:15.night is out. Let us go back to Labour. On the figures you have

:15:16. > :15:20.talked about, are you saying that although Labour on the statistics we

:15:21. > :15:24.had at the local elections, which showed them two points ahead of the

:15:25. > :15:30.Conservatives but with the advantage of 7% because of the way their votes

:15:31. > :15:34.stack up, everyone knows that their votes are in the right places,

:15:35. > :15:38.stack up, everyone knows that their you saying it is an open and shut

:15:39. > :15:45.case whether they win the election or come first in the election? It

:15:46. > :15:51.cannot be assured that Labour will win next year, for two reasons,

:15:52. > :15:54.because governments normally gain in the pre-election period and David

:15:55. > :15:59.Cameron hopes that the money will jingle in the pockets of the

:16:00. > :16:04.public, but a lot of the UKIP voters, they will probably return to

:16:05. > :16:09.the Conservatives as the lesser evil, because the Conservatives will

:16:10. > :16:13.say, if you vote UKIP, you let in Ed Miliband by the back door and that

:16:14. > :16:17.this approach European outcome, so the only way to get the choice is by

:16:18. > :16:24.voting Conservative and I think that will affect a lot of people. It will

:16:25. > :16:31.affect some of UKIP's vote. The Labour Party has not done as well as

:16:32. > :16:36.might have been expected and they are in quite serious trouble if they

:16:37. > :16:45.are expecting to win a majority on these results. Lord Ashcroft 's

:16:46. > :16:51.adjusted 50% of Conservatives who voted UKIP would return for the

:16:52. > :17:01.General Election. That is far fewer than happened at the last elections.

:17:02. > :17:06.UKIP got around 16% of the vote and then got 3.5% in the General

:17:07. > :17:11.Election. There was a massive fall off of their vote, but UKIP is

:17:12. > :17:15.sustaining their vote through locals as well through Eurozone would

:17:16. > :17:19.expect to hold onto more. The interesting thing about the big poll

:17:20. > :17:23.of marginal constituencies is that on the one hand it appeared to show

:17:24. > :17:30.good news for the Labour Party, it showed a significant swing to Labour

:17:31. > :17:34.in those marginal constituencies, enough for them to have on this

:17:35. > :17:39.snapshot, a majority of 80 in the House of Commons. That cheered the

:17:40. > :17:43.Labour Party up. The worst news for Labour is that when these UKIP

:17:44. > :17:47.supporters were asked who they wanted as Prime Minister, David

:17:48. > :17:51.Cameron or Ed Miliband, overwhelmingly they wanted David

:17:52. > :17:56.Cameron. Can they be squeezed by the Tory party to get them to give their

:17:57. > :17:59.vote back to the Conservatives in a General Election, or do they

:18:00. > :18:07.continue with the view of none of the above, I will vote for UKIP? If

:18:08. > :18:11.you take the UKIP vote last time and assume everyone who voted UKIP would

:18:12. > :18:15.have voted Conservative in the absence of UKIP, the Conservatives

:18:16. > :18:20.would have had an overall majority. If you take that view, the effect of

:18:21. > :18:25.UKIP intervening was to have handed the balance of power to the Liberal

:18:26. > :18:28.Democrats. I think a lot of people in UKIP and the Conservative party

:18:29. > :18:35.will be trying to avoid that happening again and there will be

:18:36. > :18:40.the fact to local packs to ensure that the anti-European vote is not

:18:41. > :18:47.split. We have heard a lot about Europe, but we have not heard

:18:48. > :18:51.anything from Ireland. Chris Buckler is in Ireland. Can you give us the

:18:52. > :18:59.picture of what has been happening in Ireland? We have only got one

:19:00. > :19:04.result, only one MEP. The story of the Irish election up to this point

:19:05. > :19:10.in terms of Europe is the rise of Sinn Fein and the rise of the

:19:11. > :19:16.Independent at the expense of the government parties. Sinn Fein topped

:19:17. > :19:20.the poll here with 80,000 votes, almost 50% more than the next

:19:21. > :19:26.candidate, but it is a complicated system and it involves what they

:19:27. > :19:31.call single transferable vote. It means that low polling candidates

:19:32. > :19:36.are gradually eliminated until other people reached the quota. We are on

:19:37. > :19:40.the fifth count at the moment and accounts will continue here in

:19:41. > :19:48.Dublin, you can see that the staff are waiting for the next round of

:19:49. > :19:51.counting when they will wake up and try and take those votes and

:19:52. > :19:54.redistribute them for the next eliminated candidates. It is a very

:19:55. > :20:01.long process. In the other count centres in parts of Ireland, they

:20:02. > :20:07.have stopped counting for the evening. They will start again

:20:08. > :20:10.tomorrow and in one area, it is expected that that count will

:20:11. > :20:17.continue into Tuesday. The story is very clear, independents are on the

:20:18. > :20:22.rise and so are Sinn Fein and that is a big success for Sinn Fein when

:20:23. > :20:28.they did not even get an MEP in Dublin last time. They also had an

:20:29. > :20:31.election campaign in which their leader was arrested about a murder

:20:32. > :20:38.in 1972, the murder of Jean McConville, he has always denied

:20:39. > :20:41.being involved in it. But as the Sinn Fein candidate said, it is not

:20:42. > :20:48.good when your leader is arrested when you are on the doorsteps, but

:20:49. > :20:53.it has not hurt them. To think it benefited them? It gave them

:20:54. > :20:57.publicity and it might have been of some benefit. We have the fifth

:20:58. > :21:06.round of cows, we do not expect that someone will be elected in this

:21:07. > :21:12.case, -- counts. As far as Gerry Adams is concerned, he says that his

:21:13. > :21:19.party has been successful because they are preaching and

:21:20. > :21:26.anti-austerity message. They have had a tough time here. To put it

:21:27. > :21:33.into context, you think that the rise of Sinn Fein is as a result of

:21:34. > :21:44.the economic downturn, terrible economic downturn in Ireland after

:21:45. > :21:48.the crisis? Absolutely. Sinn Fein have very much been talking about

:21:49. > :21:53.jobs, talking about the fact that welfare has been hit, the cuts and

:21:54. > :21:59.they have preached the message. If you talk to the government parties,

:22:00. > :22:03.they will say that there are signs that things are turning around, that

:22:04. > :22:06.things are becoming better, however, it is not trickling down to people

:22:07. > :22:12.and Sinn Fein have managed to get some people out to have not voted

:22:13. > :22:16.before, they have been preaching in what is normally the Irish Labour

:22:17. > :22:19.Party's heartland, talking to people who are feeling the pinch and they

:22:20. > :22:24.have succeeded in getting that vote out and the big question for Sinn

:22:25. > :22:31.Fein is can they keep that vote out for the next General Election in

:22:32. > :22:33.Ireland? That is what they want. The ideal for Sinn Fein is that they

:22:34. > :22:38.would like to be in government across Ireland, but in Northern

:22:39. > :22:42.Ireland -- both in Northern Ireland and down here as well. That has long

:22:43. > :22:47.been their project. They have not achieved it yet, but they will try

:22:48. > :22:52.to hold onto that vote and just from listening to the returning officer

:22:53. > :22:57.behind me, no one is elected on this count and we still have only one of

:22:58. > :23:01.11 MEPs elected in Ireland and as far as Northern Ireland is

:23:02. > :23:05.concerned, they do not even start counting until tomorrow. It is

:23:06. > :23:12.interesting that some countries, is seen in the face of economic

:23:13. > :23:17.problems, to grit their teeth and carry on. Others say, change course

:23:18. > :23:23.like the rise of Sinn Fein suggests, end austerity, spend the

:23:24. > :23:27.money. Sinn Fein gained a lot of popularity during the bail out years

:23:28. > :23:34.when they seem to be the only party in Ireland taking a moral high

:23:35. > :23:43.ground and saying we should not take this. They got a lot of sympathy for

:23:44. > :23:51.that and they're showing is off the back of that. We are going to hear

:23:52. > :23:56.from Emily in a moment and her guests about the overall pattern of

:23:57. > :24:01.Europe and what is going to happen. Tonight could turn out to be a

:24:02. > :24:05.defining moment in the history of our relationship with the European

:24:06. > :24:10.Union and other countries as well. Our relationship has seen ups and

:24:11. > :24:17.downs and here is a reminder of some of them and then we will join Emily

:24:18. > :24:28.up there in the gallery. We must recreate the European family in a

:24:29. > :24:32.regional structure. A staggering blow is dealt to western unity in

:24:33. > :24:41.Brussels when France blackball is Britain from the common market.

:24:42. > :24:47.Britain, I hope you will agree, has much to contribute to this process

:24:48. > :24:55.and as members of the community, we shall be better able to do so. The

:24:56. > :25:09.power to govern ourselves must remain with the British people. The

:25:10. > :25:13.yes vote is showing at 60%. The President of the commission said at

:25:14. > :25:17.this conference the other day that he wanted the European Parliament to

:25:18. > :25:20.be the Democratic party of the community, he wanted the commission

:25:21. > :25:28.to be the executive and he wanted the Council of ministers --

:25:29. > :25:32.ministers to be the Senate. No! It is like sending your opening

:25:33. > :25:36.bat-macro to the crease only for them to find that the moment the

:25:37. > :25:47.first balls bowled that their bats have been broken before the game by

:25:48. > :25:51.team captain -- batsman. The government has concluded that

:25:52. > :25:55.Britain's best interests are served by suspending our membership of the

:25:56. > :26:01.exchange rate mechanism. Like me or loathe me, do not bind my hands when

:26:02. > :26:09.I am negotiating on behalf of the British people. Ministers and

:26:10. > :26:14.bureaucrats saw their long dream for a single currency turn into reality

:26:15. > :26:21.today for nearly 300 million people across Europe. Fierce clashes

:26:22. > :26:25.continued in Athens after Greek MPs voted to impose tax increases and

:26:26. > :26:35.spending cuts in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy. That curious

:26:36. > :26:43.relationship that we have sustained with the EU. Joining me now are my

:26:44. > :26:52.guess is kind enough to be with us. -- guests. You have got your work

:26:53. > :26:59.cut out for you tonight. It may be 2:30, but I think this is very

:27:00. > :27:03.important news for Britain. Quite a lot of your commentators would say

:27:04. > :27:09.that this is a disaster, UKIP have topped the polls, David Cameron and

:27:10. > :27:14.his idea of renegotiation is under threat, but I would say no, this is

:27:15. > :27:17.a wake-up call for David Cameron and the other political leaders in

:27:18. > :27:23.Europe. They realise that they now have to get a grip of the

:27:24. > :27:28.situation. What situation? The big buzzword around Europe is change.

:27:29. > :27:32.Nobody is going to be able to ignore a real clear message coming out of

:27:33. > :27:35.Europe for change. The question is what to do. The problem with the

:27:36. > :27:40.political establishment of this country is that they have been too

:27:41. > :27:45.frightened to make a positive case for European membership. The fact is

:27:46. > :27:49.that the British media and the political establishment have let the

:27:50. > :27:58.British public down and by doing so, they have let Nigel Farage in. It is

:27:59. > :28:03.the political establishment. This is the reason why. Britain has got such

:28:04. > :28:07.an opportunity to change Europe now. This is a letter signed by David

:28:08. > :28:12.Cameron and 18 other Prime Minister is, only a year ago, saying we want

:28:13. > :28:18.to change Europe and make it more democratic, focus on jobs. These are

:28:19. > :28:26.the things that these leaders have to do something about. No one is

:28:27. > :28:30.saying anything different. That is where everyone is. It is about

:28:31. > :28:34.reforming the EU and if the results show anything it shows that that is

:28:35. > :28:42.what needs to happen. We saw the anti-EU vote, not only in France,

:28:43. > :28:47.but even in Germany, we have the rise of a party which is anti-euro

:28:48. > :28:53.which did not exist one year ago and they have won 70 -- 17% of the vote.

:28:54. > :28:58.We have in the vote. We have a neo-Nazi entering the European

:28:59. > :29:04.Parliament. Is the project over in its current form? It needs to be

:29:05. > :29:09.reformed. The project is ever developing. We have seen a high

:29:10. > :29:13.watermark of what you would call a federalist agenda, which was

:29:14. > :29:18.earmarked as the euro and the Constitution. Those projects have

:29:19. > :29:24.suffered a lot. The curious thing is that the winners in this game of

:29:25. > :29:29.developing the European Union is Britain. The two great successes of

:29:30. > :29:35.Europe are the single market and the enlargement of the countries to the

:29:36. > :29:39.east and south. That is huge. I want to talk about turnout. When you talk

:29:40. > :29:43.in these ways it sounds as if everyone has been cashing for the

:29:44. > :29:50.polls to have their say. We have not. We know that turnout is bad

:29:51. > :29:58.stop turnout is a big problem. Ever since the first election in 1979, it

:29:59. > :30:05.has been on a steady decline. We had 63% in the first election and now it

:30:06. > :30:12.is around 43%. It is a massive problem. This anti-EU bloc coming

:30:13. > :30:18.in, what it does is squeeze out the reformist middle, so even though we

:30:19. > :30:35.want to see EU reform, the fact is with the M EP is coming in, that

:30:36. > :30:38.might be more difficult to achieve. When everyone is talking about

:30:39. > :30:42.reform and change the party says that they just want to get out is

:30:43. > :30:51.going to be the one that winds. Yes, it is populism and it is very

:30:52. > :30:56.successful. It is a wake-up call to the other parties. The problem with

:30:57. > :30:59.politicians is that they have done this in an understated way, they do

:31:00. > :31:04.not want to frighten the horses, they are frightened of Fleet Street.

:31:05. > :31:07.David Cameron and Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband now have to put their heads

:31:08. > :31:14.above the parapet and tell the British people why they are in it

:31:15. > :31:19.and they have two win it and here are our friends that will enable us

:31:20. > :31:25.to do that. George Osborne made a fairly fundamental speech with you

:31:26. > :31:29.around for five months ago but what do you think the party leaders need

:31:30. > :31:34.to do now? They have to push the reform agenda make alliances. They

:31:35. > :31:37.are doing that already, aren't they? Hopefully the election result will

:31:38. > :31:40.be a wake-up call for people like Angela Merkel to realise that some

:31:41. > :31:46.of these ideas that are coming out and these ideas for reform is what

:31:47. > :31:51.Europe really needs otherwise we will turn even more to the right. If

:31:52. > :31:59.you are just a pro EU party like the Lib Dems or the Greens, what do you

:32:00. > :32:03.do? Overwhelming silence! It is not about pro-EU is though that is the

:32:04. > :32:06.be all and end all, we have moved on and I think the politicians need to

:32:07. > :32:11.move on because Nigel Farage has moved on. He is saying here is the

:32:12. > :32:31.solution, you vote for us. The British establishment has not done

:32:32. > :32:33.that for a long time. It has to do it. It is not as if Ed Miliband,

:32:34. > :32:36.Nick Clegg David Cameron do not believe that they can achieve what

:32:37. > :32:39.they want, the big problem, and this is exemplified the whole thing, is

:32:40. > :32:41.that David Cameron 30 once a new settlement and nobody knows what

:32:42. > :32:43.feels that settlement, do the repatriate is full it all the

:32:44. > :32:45.reformers? Thank you for coming in. David, we are throwing down to you.

:32:46. > :32:47.Down to the base court. Something like that.

:32:48. > :32:51.OK, Natalie Bennett from the Greens, the leader of the Greens and

:32:52. > :32:54.City Hall. We spoke the other day when I asked you why you were not

:32:55. > :32:58.standing to go to Europe and you gave some reason or other and I

:32:59. > :33:02.cannot remember what it was now. It is a pity you did not stand because

:33:03. > :33:05.you have done better than the Liberal Democrats tonight. We are

:33:06. > :33:10.very pleased with the results of this evening and we have got our

:33:11. > :33:24.first MEP in the south-west and we have finished a very clear fourth

:33:25. > :33:27.ahead of the Liberal Democrats. You were saying that you hoped to get

:33:28. > :33:30.six MEPs but you have got one extra, haven't you? It would have only

:33:31. > :33:33.taken a swing of 1.6% to get six MEPs. That was based on the results

:33:34. > :33:35.last time and the numbers have worked out quite differently to

:33:36. > :33:38.those I think anybody expected. We said we expected an increase in the

:33:39. > :33:41.number of MEPs and that is what we have got. What is the appeal of the

:33:42. > :33:45.Green party in terms of Europe because people have turned away from

:33:46. > :33:50.the Lib Dems because they are to probe the European project, where do

:33:51. > :33:53.you stand on that? We support the European referendum and we trust in

:33:54. > :33:58.democracy and we believe in the voters and making their choices. In

:33:59. > :34:01.that referendum we would campaign to stay in the but we want to reform

:34:02. > :34:07.the van who wanted to work for the common good and for people not for

:34:08. > :34:13.multinational corporations. We are opposed to the trade deal that would

:34:14. > :34:16.undercut our democracy and our environmental standards and our

:34:17. > :34:19.workers rights standards and the health standards for our food. Do

:34:20. > :34:24.you think it will go through now regardless? I think we are in a fee

:34:25. > :34:29.per our political period and we will see a lot of political change. As we

:34:30. > :34:33.are seeing in the results today the past is not a great guide to the

:34:34. > :34:40.future in terms of politics. What voters are clearly saying is that we

:34:41. > :34:46.are not happy with politics as it is now and want a different kind of

:34:47. > :34:53.politics and a different kind of economics. We want hope rather than

:34:54. > :34:58.making people feel fearful and that will be attractive to voters. What

:34:59. > :35:02.do you think the European Parliament and the European Commission, what do

:35:03. > :35:05.you think their reaction will be to what has happened because there is a

:35:06. > :35:12.feeling that they move very slowly in response? They do not say that

:35:13. > :35:15.they will do this or that and they will change this or that and they

:35:16. > :35:20.will try and keep the whole of Europe onside. We have to recognise

:35:21. > :35:24.that the seeds of reform are recognised -- Britain in the

:35:25. > :35:29.treaties such as the Lisbon Treaty which is big on local decisions

:35:30. > :35:33.being made locally but the tradition has traditionally centralised

:35:34. > :35:36.everything in Brussels and taken that power away. That is in the

:35:37. > :35:41.Lisbon Treaty and we believe in bringing decisions down so local

:35:42. > :35:46.people can decide on the issues that affect them but the EU has standards

:35:47. > :35:58.that mean that neighbouring countries cannot undercut each

:35:59. > :36:03.other. How do you react to the rise of the Front National in France? It

:36:04. > :36:07.is deeply worrying. We are seeing the same thing as we have seen here

:36:08. > :36:11.in UKIP with people not necessarily voting for the right wing but voting

:36:12. > :36:15.against the status quo. In Britain we have a million people depended on

:36:16. > :36:18.food banks and one in five workers on less than a living wage and we

:36:19. > :36:23.have an economy that is not working for people. And we can do all of

:36:24. > :36:26.this one we are using the resources of three planets every year and

:36:27. > :36:30.things have two change and that is what we are calling for, real change

:36:31. > :36:41.in a positive direction that works for people. Thank you very much. You

:36:42. > :36:44.are waiting for results such as the London ones. They are promising them

:36:45. > :36:48.in 20 minutes but they have been saying that for some time. They have

:36:49. > :36:52.been saying it for the last three hours but maybe it is true this

:36:53. > :36:55.time. They might be! While we wait to see if that is true or not we

:36:56. > :37:03.will get a round-up of the news here in Britain and abroad.

:37:04. > :37:07.Antiestablishment parties have performed strongly in voting for the

:37:08. > :37:13.European Parliament with Euro sceptics performing particularly

:37:14. > :37:16.well. A summary now of results across Europe.

:37:17. > :37:21.From Germany to France, Greece and Belgium, this is the biggest

:37:22. > :37:26.election for the European Parliament but exit polls show that

:37:27. > :37:32.Eurosceptics have made significant gains. Let us start in France, one

:37:33. > :37:38.of the's founding nations, where the result has been described as a

:37:39. > :37:43.political earthquake. Here Marine Le Pen and the leader of the far right

:37:44. > :37:49.Front National party is casting her ballot, the party is known for being

:37:50. > :37:54.anti-immigration and anti-Europe. A few hours later she was celebrating

:37:55. > :38:02.a stunning victory, prompting this sombre statement from the French

:38:03. > :38:09.Prime Minister. This moment is serious, very serious, for France

:38:10. > :38:13.and for Europe. Tonight you have expressed profound scepticism.

:38:14. > :38:20.Europe has disappointed. It is a fact. The familiar scene in briefs

:38:21. > :38:26.-- Greece, the country that was hardest hit by the Euro crisis.

:38:27. > :38:31.Austerity and unemployment were on voters minds, resulting in a victory

:38:32. > :38:36.for the radical leftist Syriza party. The neo-Nazi party Golden

:38:37. > :38:42.Dawn ranked third despite a criminal probe against its leaders. The

:38:43. > :38:45.people may have voted out of anger because of the pressure country has

:38:46. > :38:50.been under these last three years but even so it will not change

:38:51. > :38:56.anything for the government of the country. In Spain and he austerity

:38:57. > :39:00.sentiment was evident, the two biggest parties have lost

:39:01. > :39:07.considerable support while a smaller parties taking a significant share

:39:08. > :39:11.of the vote. In the host of the EU capital, Belgium, voters were also

:39:12. > :39:17.choosing a new national government. It was a tough night for the ruling

:39:18. > :39:23.party which lost voters to a newly created party. The country is

:39:24. > :39:27.expected to see months of deadlock before a new government can be

:39:28. > :39:31.formed. A rare victory for the ruling government in Germany, the

:39:32. > :39:36.biggest economy in EU but here parties with antique European

:39:37. > :39:39.policies still made games. One of the first tasks of the incoming

:39:40. > :39:45.parliament will be to elect a new president of the European

:39:46. > :39:50.Commission. Here in the UK the leader of UKIP,

:39:51. > :39:53.Nigel Farage, gave a speech saying the success of his party is one of

:39:54. > :39:58.the most extraordinary results seen in British politics in the century.

:39:59. > :40:01.In a way it is surprisingly did not happen before because we have had

:40:02. > :40:05.three parties in British politics that have led us into a common

:40:06. > :40:12.market that has developed into a political union who have twisted and

:40:13. > :40:17.turned with promises to give us a referendum that they have not ever

:40:18. > :40:21.kept. The penny has really dropped. As members of this union we cannot

:40:22. > :40:26.run our own country and we crucially cannot control our own borders.

:40:27. > :40:31.Nigel Farage there. William Hague shared his views on why more

:40:32. > :40:35.Europeans are voting for antiestablishment Eurosceptic

:40:36. > :40:40.parties. That is why it is so important that the next European

:40:41. > :40:43.Commission, that the European Council, the next European

:40:44. > :40:48.Parliament, do get the message that there is rising discontent and

:40:49. > :40:53.tensions of many kinds in Europe and that requires a European Union that

:40:54. > :41:00.is more flexible, more competitive, left centralised, less remote and

:41:01. > :41:07.more accountable and that is in the interests of all of the nations of

:41:08. > :41:11.Europe, not just of the UK and that is the agenda we will be pushing.

:41:12. > :41:19.That is the round-up of news from the Newsround. -- Mac news room.

:41:20. > :41:24.We are waking for the London results and we think we may be getting it

:41:25. > :41:27.sometime soon. It is a very important one because it does take a

:41:28. > :41:32.Labour probably ahead of the Conservatives but not by much, a

:41:33. > :41:35.smidgen ahead of the Conservatives in the popular vote. Jeremy Vine,

:41:36. > :41:40.let us look at what information we have about the country as a whole

:41:41. > :41:43.and the world as a whole, your oyster! The oyster can be just this

:41:44. > :41:47.country at the moment. The joy sing in the simplicity of

:41:48. > :42:06.the elections to the European Parliament where if you have a look

:42:07. > :42:09.at this. This is the story. Wales is red and the Northwest is red and the

:42:10. > :42:12.North East is red and these other parties that come first in the areas

:42:13. > :42:14.that we are showing and then the rest of England apart from London is

:42:15. > :42:19.purple for UKIP. We are showing the party that is in first place but I

:42:20. > :42:22.will make it more details for you by showing the localised effect of

:42:23. > :42:26.votes, shoving the vote forced through local councils so you can

:42:27. > :42:31.see who is in first place where. Suddenly looks better for the

:42:32. > :42:34.Conservatives because we are actually pretty blue in the middle

:42:35. > :42:50.of England but if I make it flash where our party has gone into first

:42:51. > :42:52.place for the first time, look at the amount of purple that is

:42:53. > :42:55.flashing here. Look at the South West how strong UKIP R. There are

:42:56. > :42:58.games all over right up to the north of England for Nigel Farage. That is

:42:59. > :43:02.very dramatic map to show you and a map that shows the story of the

:43:03. > :43:06.advance of UKIP. Let us look at the seats in the UK that we know about.

:43:07. > :43:13.No seats in London yet but here we go UKIP have 22, up ten. Labour have

:43:14. > :43:17.14. The reason I have got them in second is that as far as we know

:43:18. > :43:21.they have a greater percentage share of the vote than the Conservatives

:43:22. > :43:27.say they have fewer seats but more share. 14 seats for Labour, up five.

:43:28. > :43:31.Conservatives down five and they are the victims of the UKIP surge as

:43:32. > :43:35.well as the Lib Dems. Look at the Lib Dems, we are running out of

:43:36. > :43:39.adjectives to describe how poorly they are doing in elections at the

:43:40. > :43:45.moment, they are down to one seat, down eight as things stand. The

:43:46. > :43:49.others are down one. That is the breakdown of seats. I will show you

:43:50. > :43:53.the share now. First place is to UKIP. That will be on the front

:43:54. > :43:58.pages. London could take that down a bit because we have seen problems in

:43:59. > :44:02.the council elections. Labour are in second place and London could lift

:44:03. > :44:07.that. Conservatives are in third just a smidgen behind Labour. The

:44:08. > :44:19.Lib Dem vote has halved since the last European elections. The UKIP

:44:20. > :44:22.vote was something that we passed a bit during the council elections, we

:44:23. > :44:26.were wondering how stable it would be for the general election next

:44:27. > :44:32.year but let us have a look at this craft which shows the UKIP share of

:44:33. > :44:37.the group -- UKIP share of the vote going back to 1999. They were on 7%

:44:38. > :44:40.and at the time that was not a bad result for them. They came down for

:44:41. > :44:47.the general election and then back-up for the European and you can

:44:48. > :44:53.see the pattern. This is the shape of the UKIP vote so far, up and down

:44:54. > :45:00.and up and down and you can see the figures so the European votes tends

:45:01. > :45:06.to be up, 17% for example and then down to 3% in the election and then

:45:07. > :45:10.up again to the figure they have got now, 29%. The question is, can they

:45:11. > :45:14.break that pattern was Mac this craft that looks like the front-end

:45:15. > :45:18.of a car that has been in a crash. Can they break the pattern on hold

:45:19. > :45:22.onto the votes in a general election. There is some evidence

:45:23. > :45:26.that they may. Let me show you these grafts. If you were with us on the

:45:27. > :45:32.local election night, this will make sense to you. This is the 2009

:45:33. > :45:36.general election, this is all UKIP voters and what is their intention

:45:37. > :45:42.at the next general election, only one in four stay with UKIP. 44% then

:45:43. > :45:47.desert UKIP and go conservative and a few go to the other parties. A

:45:48. > :45:52.British election survey suggests that number could be more resilient

:45:53. > :45:55.for UKIP. Let me show you the percentages they have come to so

:45:56. > :46:00.they have UKIP supporters going into a European election who are

:46:01. > :46:07.professing loyalty to UKIP in a European election and then they are

:46:08. > :46:12.saying, what then? 58% of them say they will stay with them for the

:46:13. > :46:16.general which is much more positive for UKIP. Only one in a hundred is

:46:17. > :46:21.thinking of going to UKIP to the Lib Dems and it would be interesting to

:46:22. > :46:25.interview them so that suggests the survey results suggests that UKIP

:46:26. > :46:30.supporters now think it is worth staying with the party for a general

:46:31. > :46:39.election and maybe that alters the chemistry here in the UK.

:46:40. > :46:48.Tim Donovan joins us from City Hall. Is that in the teen lady still

:46:49. > :46:59.knitting and have they started serving coffee in the canteen? This

:47:00. > :47:10.pink scarf is really beginning to take shape. Is she going to give it

:47:11. > :47:16.to you? It is not my shade. Do you want me to tell you? I am reluctant

:47:17. > :47:23.to say it, but apparently the agents have been called in. The result

:47:24. > :47:29.appears to be there. That should signal, in about 15 or 20 minutes'

:47:30. > :47:37.time, we should get the results, but I am reluctant. What can go wrong? I

:47:38. > :47:44.think we are there are now. Almost anything can go wrong! The agents

:47:45. > :47:50.can challenge the figures. Oh my God! I suppose they might. I suppose

:47:51. > :47:58.because the challenging has been done at source, I am told, I

:47:59. > :48:03.understand, it is unlikely that this will happen at this stage. Either

:48:04. > :48:13.candidate still around? Not all of them. There were a number of other

:48:14. > :48:19.parties. 17 parties? The Animal Welfare Party, and N hit shares

:48:20. > :48:24.party, their representatives have left, but the main candidates have

:48:25. > :48:35.left -- the national health is action party. -- service. You are

:48:36. > :48:39.resigned to your job, or else you are resigning from it! You will want

:48:40. > :48:47.to know about the Bromley ward in the Council count. They have given

:48:48. > :48:58.up tonight and they are coming back to do that on Tuesday. They cannot

:48:59. > :49:03.agree the Count? They cannot. There is a dispute over this ward and they

:49:04. > :49:10.are going to come back on Tuesday. Over your right shoulder, there are

:49:11. > :49:13.some photographers arriving, so perhaps... I would not make that

:49:14. > :49:22.deduction after the night we have had. They are probably looking for

:49:23. > :49:29.somewhere to sleep! Thank you. We will come back to you. Joyful moment

:49:30. > :49:35.when you can give us the result will stop we have something interesting,

:49:36. > :49:39.from what I can see, from Emily's figures, it looks as though the

:49:40. > :49:46.Conservative vote, in actual numbers, in 2009, four million, is

:49:47. > :50:07.exactly the same as the UKIP vote this year. They put UKIP in first

:50:08. > :50:13.place in terms of fraud votes. Less than fewer than 12,000 votes between

:50:14. > :50:17.Labour and the Conservatives. It is still too close to call, a lot will

:50:18. > :50:23.come down to what happens in London. We will be back with Tim before too

:50:24. > :50:29.long, but look how close those figures are. Those two parties,

:50:30. > :50:35.extraordinary to think, the two main parties, vying for second place with

:50:36. > :50:42.around 12,000 votes between them. I love these actual figures, because

:50:43. > :50:49.it is kind of real. The BNP boat and the Liberal Democrat vote are the

:50:50. > :50:59.same. The BNP vote was 943000 and the Liberal Democrat vote is what?

:51:00. > :51:07.The vote is 995,000 642. They are almost the same. This is curious.

:51:08. > :51:10.This is the one we were looking at, this party is particularly strong in

:51:11. > :51:21.the West Midlands to CF that would be a spoiler. -- to see if that

:51:22. > :51:28.word. It does not seem to have made a dent. Over half a million votes

:51:29. > :51:41.separating UKIP from the other two. John, what do you think about the

:51:42. > :51:48.Conservatives now. Given that what are missing is the London results.

:51:49. > :51:52.The returning officer was not able to declare the result, he has been

:51:53. > :51:58.reluctant to give us the individual counts in London. Given what we have

:51:59. > :52:01.learned, we have enough results in from London, Labour are ahead of

:52:02. > :52:07.their -- the Conservatives so far. Given what we know, I think we can

:52:08. > :52:11.anticipate that Labour will be narrowly ahead of the Conservatives

:52:12. > :52:17.in the vote when finally London manages to give its outcome. What

:52:18. > :52:21.kind of percent? A percentage point or so. It looks as though this

:52:22. > :52:26.result will confirm the message that we had on Thursday night, on Friday

:52:27. > :52:30.from the local elections and from the recent opinion polls that Labour

:52:31. > :52:35.currently enjoy no more than a narrow lead over the Conservatives.

:52:36. > :52:38.At the beginning of the night, if we said to Labour that they would be

:52:39. > :52:44.behind UKIP by three percentage points, they would say that was OK.

:52:45. > :52:49.If you said you were going to be about a percentage point ahead of

:52:50. > :52:52.the Conservatives, they would have expressed disappointment, because

:52:53. > :52:56.the expectations of the opinion polls, given the evidence that UKIP

:52:57. > :53:02.seem to be taking more votes from the Conservative, Labour would have

:53:03. > :53:06.expected there to be a bigger gap. Insofar that there has been a

:53:07. > :53:10.surprise, as compared with the expectations of the opinion poll, it

:53:11. > :53:14.is the narrowness of Labour's lead over the Conservatives which is what

:53:15. > :53:22.we least expect it. We have heard a lot about Conservative attempts to

:53:23. > :53:25.push the Conservative party, pushed David Cameron into being clear about

:53:26. > :53:33.what he is doing, within Labour how will they react? We are getting

:53:34. > :53:38.information about London, Labour in London believe they have got 50% of

:53:39. > :53:41.the vote and four M EP is. This is reporting what Labour in London

:53:42. > :53:51.believe and they have started to celebrate -- that will put them in

:53:52. > :53:55.second position overall. There will be a debate, almost exacerbating

:53:56. > :54:03.that, because the correct response to why Labour have not done so well

:54:04. > :54:07.out of London, maybe the intention with what people want to see in

:54:08. > :54:11.London. There is a far higher membership of the Labour Party in

:54:12. > :54:18.London than the rest of the UK and other voices before tonight saying

:54:19. > :54:24.this is a message too focused on London. Use backbenchers and members

:54:25. > :54:31.of the Shadow Cabinet talking about the need about immigration and what

:54:32. > :54:36.is required for Labour to reconnect with the voters it has lost in some

:54:37. > :54:40.of its northern heartlands, maybe sometimes at odds with the message

:54:41. > :54:45.that appears to be working well for Ed Miliband in the capital. They

:54:46. > :54:50.have a problem. Undoubtedly they have a problem, which is partly a

:54:51. > :54:57.confidence problem, they cannot come out of these elections with any

:54:58. > :55:01.sense of victory. The way they are building up votes, they can do it,

:55:02. > :55:07.but in the end, they come back to the twin problems that we talked

:55:08. > :55:15.about earlier, which are the economy and the leader. Canny home the

:55:16. > :55:27.message on the economy, home Ed Miliband's performance -- can they

:55:28. > :55:31.home. Do you agree with Vernon about people reverting to the party of

:55:32. > :55:38.government as the elections come closer? There have been two trends,

:55:39. > :55:42.the government picks up support and it helps them focus on the choice in

:55:43. > :55:47.that sense, particularly in terms of getting UKIP supporters back and

:55:48. > :55:52.growing the economy and if there is some effect on people's pockets, --

:55:53. > :55:59.puppets, it still has not happened, it would help the Tories. These are

:56:00. > :56:03.European elections, there is not eyed directory across and the

:56:04. > :56:09.electoral system at Westminster means the Tories need a five or six

:56:10. > :56:13.point lead in order to get the same number of MEPs as the Labour Party.

:56:14. > :56:17.The system does not work for them, they did not manage to get the

:56:18. > :56:23.boundary changes because the Liberal Democrats stop the changes. What

:56:24. > :56:33.will the Liberal Democrats do? The intention of the leadership is to do

:56:34. > :56:37.that. The one person who I think sees some possible benefit in the

:56:38. > :56:42.right circumstances of pulling out of the coalition might be Vince

:56:43. > :56:47.Cable, not that he is calling for it not that he is arguing for it, but I

:56:48. > :56:51.think he realises that there are certain situations in which he

:56:52. > :56:57.believes that getting out from the coalition would help the party to

:56:58. > :57:01.reassert its identity, say to voters who came to the Liberal Democrats

:57:02. > :57:09.from the left of politics, we are not Tories, you can come back to us.

:57:10. > :57:14.Hand back their seals of office? They are reluctant to do it for the

:57:15. > :57:19.reasons you imply. They could only do it if there was a plausible

:57:20. > :57:23.reason to do it. If it looked like an electoral wheeze, a way of saying

:57:24. > :57:28.we want to get out ahead of the election, they would pay a heavy

:57:29. > :57:35.price. They would have to be a policy argument, you remember inside

:57:36. > :57:38.one government, people need good reasons for walking out, like

:57:39. > :57:42.Michael Heseltine and Westland. For the Liberal Democrats, there has not

:57:43. > :57:50.been a reason on offer for a while. You had a point she wanted to make

:57:51. > :57:55.about Europe. In this sense, there are strong parallels here, what we

:57:56. > :58:00.are seen in Britain across Europe. The mainstream parties are squeezed.

:58:01. > :58:04.The Eurosceptic parties as well. We have talked a lot about the

:58:05. > :58:07.antifederalists message, but it is not necessarily that there have been

:58:08. > :58:10.political will is not necessarily that there have been political wills

:58:11. > :58:19.for further integration, a lot of this has been prices. They had to

:58:20. > :58:22.get closer on issues like banking, oversight of national budgets, which

:58:23. > :58:29.voters in many countries, especially those were a stare at conditions

:58:30. > :58:32.were imposed on them, but it was not necessarily the government wanting

:58:33. > :58:40.this -- austerity. From an economic point of view, it politically there

:58:41. > :58:45.was not a pro-federalist will to go into closer political integration.

:58:46. > :58:53.It was a response to try and save a sinking ship. What are you thinking

:58:54. > :58:57.about? It has been institutionalised in what is called a new fiscal

:58:58. > :59:02.compact, where member states have to go and show the European Commission

:59:03. > :59:07.their budgets before they are passed in national parliaments. It has been

:59:08. > :59:11.a major step, especially for countries in the Eurozone for

:59:12. > :59:15.further integration. A lot of voters have reacted against that. National

:59:16. > :59:23.governments did not want to see that, but they saw it as a necessary

:59:24. > :59:26.response. That is about the lender laying down the terms of lending. It

:59:27. > :59:31.has been institutionalised for all Eurozone countries. There is

:59:32. > :59:37.resentment and especially in countries that have felt the impact

:59:38. > :59:43.of the bailouts. I would point out that some of the leaders in Europe

:59:44. > :59:48.are not that thrilled about further steps towards integration. Angela

:59:49. > :59:55.Merkel is striking her feet. She does not want to expose her country

:59:56. > :00:03.to any kind of risk or standing up to bailing out other countries and

:00:04. > :00:19.bad banks. Let us go to the actual declaration from London. 4 Freedoms

:00:20. > :00:30.Party, 28,014. An Independence From Europe, 26,675. Animal Welfare

:00:31. > :00:43.Party, 21,092. British National Party, 19,246. Christian peoples

:00:44. > :00:56.Alliance, 23,702. Communities United Party, 6951. Conservative Party,

:00:57. > :01:13.495,000 6039. English Democrats, 10,142. Europeans Party, 10,712.

:01:14. > :01:32.Green Party, 196,419. The Harmony Party, 1985. The Labour Party,

:01:33. > :01:40.806,959. Liberal Democrats, 148,013. National Health Action Party,

:01:41. > :01:59.23,253. The National Liberal Party, 6736. NO2EU, 3804. The UK

:02:00. > :02:05.Independence Party, 371,000 133. The number of votes rejected is 25,207.

:02:06. > :02:09.The following candidates have been duly elected for the London regions

:02:10. > :02:15.and I will ask each candidate to come forward as I call their name.

:02:16. > :02:37.First, Claude Moraes of the Labour Party. Second, Saeed Kamal of the

:02:38. > :03:00.Conservative Party. Third, Mary Honeyball of the Labour Party.

:03:01. > :03:14.Fourth, Gerard Batten, UKIP. Fifth, Lucy Anderson, Labour Party. Sixth,

:03:15. > :03:34.Charles Tameka of the Conservative Party. Seventh, said dance of the

:03:35. > :03:42.Labour Party. Eight, Jean Lambert of the Green Party. The statement of

:03:43. > :03:55.results will be published in City Hall and in each county area. More

:03:56. > :04:21.interesting is the percentage vote. Liberal Democrats coming in fifth, a

:04:22. > :04:25.massive boost to the Labour Party. They have done much better in London

:04:26. > :04:33.than in other parts of the country and UKIP doing much worse. 6% up,

:04:34. > :04:39.but nothing like ten, 12, 15% increase in votes we have seen in

:04:40. > :04:43.other parts of the country. That takes Labour clearly ahead in terms

:04:44. > :04:50.of the national vote share and equal in terms of the number of seats with

:04:51. > :04:56.the Conservatives. A clear second in terms of vote share and equal in

:04:57. > :05:08.terms of the number of seats. We have got Scotland to come. 300,000

:05:09. > :05:11.ahead roughly speaking. In 2009, remember that miserable election of

:05:12. > :05:28.Gordon Brown during the expenses crisis. Now it has more than doubled

:05:29. > :05:52.in that five-year gap. We are getting close to the final figures.

:05:53. > :06:02.Right, well, we have had our final result, so we can all go home. No? I

:06:03. > :06:07.can show you the map as it is colouring up. We are still waiting

:06:08. > :06:14.for the individual local authorities. Let me give you a sense

:06:15. > :06:20.of what has changed hands since 2009 in terms of the highest share of the

:06:21. > :06:27.vote. Some areas are geographically bigger and some are more dense in

:06:28. > :06:33.terms of population. This was 2009. A standard picture of Labour in the

:06:34. > :06:37.inner-city borough 's and wards. This ring of blue of the

:06:38. > :06:43.Conservatives in the more rural outskirts of London. If we update

:06:44. > :06:49.that now, look at the pockets that spring up. Hillingdon has gone from

:06:50. > :07:00.conservative to Labour. Hounslow next to it as well. Sutton, very

:07:01. > :07:05.notable on the same day the Lib Dems held onto that counsel, people

:07:06. > :07:15.voting at a European level for this to go to UKIP. This area, Bromley,

:07:16. > :07:22.conservative. And you can see UKIP in savouring. A lot of this is still

:07:23. > :07:26.great. Even though we know the MEPs by number and the percentage of the

:07:27. > :07:33.vote, that has to colour up in terms of the highest share of the vote? It

:07:34. > :07:37.was interesting about the tension of the London centric view of the

:07:38. > :07:44.Labour Party and the Labour Party outside. There are two things a

:07:45. > :07:49.party can do. It can first say, our message was right, but we have not

:07:50. > :07:54.communicated it effectively. We must try and convince the voters we were

:07:55. > :08:00.right. Or it can say our message was not quite right, we have got to

:08:01. > :08:04.change our message. The London people will take the first line, the

:08:05. > :08:09.message was right. But people outside will take the second, we

:08:10. > :08:14.have got to alter our policy, Labour must take a different view on

:08:15. > :08:19.immigration and all sorts of other subjects. That tension is going to

:08:20. > :08:28.be very important in the Labour Party. A 15 point increase in

:08:29. > :08:31.Labour's vote in London since 2009. In the rest of Britain so far

:08:32. > :08:36.without Scotland it is a nine point increase. Quite a dramatic change

:08:37. > :08:43.between London and the rest of the country. Letters now have a final

:08:44. > :08:53.look at the picture now that we have all the English and Welsh results.

:08:54. > :08:58.We are so close to being able to fill in the whole map. Let's make it

:08:59. > :09:07.really simple and look at the first party. Wales was blue before because

:09:08. > :09:11.the last result was in 2009 when Labour were doing badly. It was blue

:09:12. > :09:17.in the north-west and now it is read. But the rest of the country is

:09:18. > :09:22.not look any more, it is UKIP purple. And London has this

:09:23. > :09:30.interesting result which shows Labour's growing strength in the

:09:31. > :09:40.capital city. If I zoom in a bit more you can see the more local

:09:41. > :09:45.effect of voting. Who came first? You can now seek a better story for

:09:46. > :09:52.the Conservatives. They may not have come first in any region, but the

:09:53. > :09:57.real message is the purple flashing because the last time in 2009 they

:09:58. > :10:02.were not first placed in these areas. They only had one part of the

:10:03. > :10:09.country and that was here on the North Devon coast. Now it is all

:10:10. > :10:16.over. We are looking for a Lib Dem orange and you can look quite a for

:10:17. > :10:21.it. There it is. The only bit of orange on the map, the only place

:10:22. > :10:37.where the Lib Dems were placed first. Now we can have a look at the

:10:38. > :10:41.boat as far as the UK is concerned. 24 UKIP seats. Almost doing as well

:10:42. > :10:51.as the Conservatives did five years ago. In second place Labour with 20.

:10:52. > :10:59.19 for the Conservatives just behind. The Greens on three and the

:11:00. > :11:05.Lib Dems reduced to one. We will now show the share forecast. This is

:11:06. > :11:16.what we think we are going to end the night with. UKIP with 28%.

:11:17. > :11:24.Labour are pushed back into second with 25%. The London result lifted

:11:25. > :11:30.Labour decisively above the Conservatives, but not by much. The

:11:31. > :11:38.Greens are on 8% in fourth place and the Liberal Democrats have got their

:11:39. > :11:46.vote halved. That is at this point the result of this very interesting

:11:47. > :11:54.election. Gibraltar is part of the Southwest. You don't know how

:11:55. > :11:59.Gibraltar when? I don't know, but we were presuming it would go UKIP. I

:12:00. > :12:06.think the Liberal Democrats won Gibraltar. We need to check this. In

:12:07. > :12:12.which case there is a haven for the Liberal Democrats. It is a rock.

:12:13. > :12:23.They can go to Gibraltar. All those apes and monkeys. I am not implying

:12:24. > :12:30.all those Gibraltarians fit that category! You are digging yourself

:12:31. > :12:35.deeper. It is early. On the Liberal Democrats there is a great paradox.

:12:36. > :12:41.If you look at what they stood for in 2010, it was constitutional

:12:42. > :12:49.reform and Europe. Constitutional reform is of the agenda since the

:12:50. > :12:53.defeat of the alternative vote. Europe was perceived correctly or

:12:54. > :12:58.not is a vote loser. The liberal dilemma is much deeper than that. It

:12:59. > :13:02.was beautifully expressed by Tony Blair who said if you have attacked

:13:03. > :13:07.the Labour Government for 13 years from the left and you join a

:13:08. > :13:11.coalition with the Conservatives, you have some explaining to do. So

:13:12. > :13:19.fired the Liberal Democrats have not explained that so well. Briefly a

:13:20. > :13:24.last word from you. It is interesting with the London results.

:13:25. > :13:28.In London where all the immigrants really are a nobody is buying into

:13:29. > :13:36.the UKIP story of anti immigration, which is interesting. We have seen

:13:37. > :13:39.it in some other countries as well. London is prosperous, it is a

:13:40. > :13:44.building site with tower blocks going up, people flocking from

:13:45. > :13:50.France and other places. I would worry about those buildings going up

:13:51. > :13:57.and propping up the new property bubble and the UK is turning into a

:13:58. > :14:03.stop -start economy. You are attracting the lightning. We have

:14:04. > :14:09.seen an earthquake in Britain, but this has been felt across Europe,

:14:10. > :14:15.the anti-European and Yuri sceptic parties is not just a British

:14:16. > :14:23.phenomenon. Do you want a last thought? After the local elections

:14:24. > :14:30.some thought the talk of earthquake was overdone. But this is anything

:14:31. > :14:34.other than an extraordinary result for the UK Independence Party. The

:14:35. > :14:41.other main parties have an off a lot of thinking to do. The Liberal

:14:42. > :14:45.Democrats even more so. We have got 11 months and a bit to go to the

:14:46. > :14:50.election, which means ten months before the campaign starts and in

:14:51. > :14:56.effect it will start tomorrow. There will be a whole load of wrangling.

:14:57. > :15:02.Which way shall we go? What does this mean? That is all to come in

:15:03. > :15:10.the future. That brings us to the end of this programme. From Emily up

:15:11. > :15:14.there in the gallery, from John Curtice, Jeremy Vine and everybody

:15:15. > :15:20.around this table, and from everybody who has been gathering in

:15:21. > :15:23.the results behind us and processing them all through the night, not

:15:24. > :15:30.complaining with people shouting at them, are you sure you have got it

:15:31. > :15:34.right? It has been fantastic. Roll on the general election, 2015. From

:15:35. > :15:39.all of us here, good night. Your daughter's about to make

:15:40. > :15:42.history. Where are you, love? I don't want you to be with me

:15:43. > :15:46.because you feel trapped. I know who planted the first bomb

:15:47. > :15:50.and they didn't plant the second. I'm going to put it right -

:15:51. > :16:00.just not yet. This summer, BBC TWO takes

:16:01. > :16:04.a look at the Brazilian superstars See what life is really like

:16:05. > :16:22.in the favelas. Thanks for tuning in to our

:16:23. > :16:49.regular look at Weatherview and the forecast

:16:50. > :16:51.for the next few days. Now, as far as Sunday was concerned,

:16:52. > :16:53.there was actually quite a lot of contrast

:16:54. > :16:55.in our weather. showing

:16:56. > :16:58.just the fair-weather cloud across the East and

:16:59. > :17:01.the Southeast of the country, where we had

:17:02. > :17:05.an area of low pressure, that's where we saw

:17:06. > :17:08.a lot more showers,