14/11/2011

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:00:02. > :00:06.latest headlines from BBC World News. Let's bring you the latest

:00:06. > :00:16.numbers and used on the new man in charge of Italy with Sally and

:00:16. > :00:17.

:00:17. > :00:22.A warm welcome, you're with World Business Report. These are the

:00:22. > :00:26.headlines: He's an elected and highly respected. Will Mario Monti

:00:26. > :00:31.be able to bring Italy back from the precipice of financial ruin?

:00:31. > :00:38.The head of Germany's powerful Bundesbank rejects calls to use the

:00:38. > :00:48.European Central Bank as the lender of last resort. Japan bounces back

:00:48. > :00:55.

:00:55. > :01:03.from its post earthquakes slump but Mario Monti has been handed the

:01:03. > :01:05.task of forging a new government in Italy. They will hope he can

:01:05. > :01:10.restore the country's credibility and pushed through a tough

:01:10. > :01:15.austerity measures. Between 1994 and 2004 he was a European

:01:15. > :01:20.commissioner in Brussels where he developed a reputation as being a

:01:20. > :01:23.tough negotiator and he has always been a staunch defender of the euro.

:01:23. > :01:30.All eyes will be on how European markets will respond to his

:01:30. > :01:35.appointment in a few hours. I am joined by a professor of economics

:01:35. > :01:39.at the University of Sussex and also at the Open University. Are

:01:39. > :01:49.you pleased Monti got the job? It seems to be the one the markets

:01:49. > :01:49.

:01:49. > :01:52.were looking for. He was of very respectable economists. He has

:01:52. > :02:01.connections with very smart economists that he can bring into

:02:01. > :02:05.his cabinet. That will calm financial markets because he is

:02:05. > :02:09.very credible in terms of how he understands international economy

:02:09. > :02:13.and Italy's place within Europe and hopefully he can make it to the

:02:14. > :02:19.Crow. As long as the growth rate remains below the interest rates

:02:19. > :02:25.that they pay on their debt, the debt-GDP ratio will keep growing.

:02:25. > :02:29.Does he have a growth plan? So far we have had two big austerity

:02:29. > :02:33.packages pushed through Parliament in a very speedy fashion last week

:02:33. > :02:37.was the latest on. Mario Monti has got to implement that. You say he

:02:37. > :02:42.has got to bring growth. Everyone agrees that in the long-term Italy

:02:42. > :02:47.needs to have a growth plan but what about those austerity measures,

:02:47. > :02:51.will they lead to growth in Italy? It's interesting because they are

:02:51. > :02:56.actually quite similar to the kind of package that the UK government

:02:56. > :03:02.has just put through. Which is mainly about taxation. So the VAT

:03:02. > :03:06.will go up to 21% in Italy. There will be pension reform, they want

:03:06. > :03:11.Italian women to actually wait an extra five years before they get a

:03:11. > :03:15.pension. There's increases in the expenses that people make within

:03:15. > :03:20.hospitals. Little things like that. They are bringing in more money

:03:20. > :03:23.that way? There will also be a freeze on public sector wages. But

:03:24. > :03:29.if you think about what these measures will do, partly the

:03:29. > :03:36.problem is they will decrease demand, they cost the VAT rising...

:03:36. > :03:41.and this has happened in this country -- because the VAT rising.

:03:41. > :03:45.Nothing we have seen will increase productivity. For the last ten

:03:45. > :03:48.years it has had stagnant productivity. This is very

:03:48. > :03:53.different to other European countries. It is not true it is a

:03:53. > :04:00.European problem, it is an Italian problem because of under-investment

:04:00. > :04:05.in certain areas where Germany has been a lot smarter. There's nothing

:04:05. > :04:11.in this plan to do anything useful. Unless we increased Italian

:04:11. > :04:14.productivity the gross rate will not rise. These measures we see are

:04:14. > :04:19.all about decreasing the immediate debt but it is not about long-term

:04:19. > :04:22.growth. We have got to leave it there, thanks very much. I am sure

:04:22. > :04:26.we will talk again on this programme about the outlook for

:04:26. > :04:29.Italy and we will discuss it further in the look at the

:04:29. > :04:34.international press. But we have to move on because Italy may be

:04:34. > :04:39.stepping back from the brink but its government bond fields, its

:04:39. > :04:42.return and investor receives are still in the danger zone and the

:04:42. > :04:46.European Central Bank is being urged to stem the crisis by

:04:46. > :04:50.underwriting the Italian bond market. Germany are highly

:04:50. > :04:54.sceptical of this. On Thursday the President of the German Bundesbank

:04:54. > :04:58.said the ECB should not be used as a lender of last resort to European

:04:58. > :05:04.governments. The European Central Bank may have

:05:04. > :05:08.a new boss, who happens to be an Italian. But whoever's in charge

:05:08. > :05:12.the ECB can't be a lender of last resort to using its unlimited

:05:12. > :05:17.firepower to directly by the debt of governments like Italy. All you

:05:17. > :05:24.can do is go to the open market and buy bonds from distress countries,

:05:25. > :05:33.which it has done. Wholesale buying could stabilise Italy and Greece.

:05:33. > :05:36.Four protesters in Rome, it is a simple issue. TRANSLATION: The

:05:36. > :05:41.European Central Bank is the only central bank in the history of

:05:41. > :05:46.humanity that lends money to private banks at a rate of 1.5% and

:05:46. > :05:52.does not lend money to the state. We demand that the European Central

:05:52. > :05:57.Bank by his state bonds directly because this was stop the

:05:57. > :06:02.speculation. What is stopping the opening of the EU floodgates is the

:06:02. > :06:06.zone's largest paymaster, Germany. It aims it will risk unleashing

:06:06. > :06:11.chronic inflation of the kind experienced in the 1920s. But the

:06:11. > :06:17.senior figure advising this Bank thinks it will soon end to world

:06:17. > :06:22.opinion. Germany of course is in pole position here to swing the

:06:22. > :06:28.decisions and it really has a choice, if it sticks by its

:06:29. > :06:32.orthodox disciplined approach I fear there's going to be a serious

:06:32. > :06:37.escalation in the financial markets that will be beyond repair. Or it

:06:37. > :06:41.has to compromise and say, there may be certain concessions we will

:06:41. > :06:48.have to make in terms of what the European Central Bank is allowed to

:06:48. > :06:54.do so that we may leave them by some time to sort the problems out.

:06:54. > :07:01.That is what will happen I think. With the ECB on the sidelines it is

:07:01. > :07:04.still just Italy verses the markets. Japan is out of recession after its

:07:04. > :07:08.economy rebounded in the third quarter growing for the first time

:07:08. > :07:11.since the devastating earthquake in March. A rise in exports and

:07:11. > :07:18.consumer spending helped boost the economy after nine months of

:07:18. > :07:24.negative growth. Roland Berger is in Tokyo, some welcome news, tell

:07:24. > :07:33.us more about how they did this. is about companies recovering much

:07:33. > :07:38.more quickly than the common knowledge had expected. That helped

:07:38. > :07:42.to restore the supply chains. In the last quarter, July to September,

:07:42. > :07:49.the story was about companies catching up on lost production.

:07:49. > :07:54.Japan's economy expanded by 1.5% quarter on quarter, 6% as an annual

:07:54. > :07:57.rate. The fastest of any major economy. Consumers also did their

:07:57. > :08:01.bit because of concerns about electricity shortages in the wake

:08:01. > :08:05.of the Fukushima nuclear crisis, there was a bit of a Brunt on

:08:06. > :08:13.people buying energy-efficient appliances, trying to do their bit

:08:13. > :08:20.to save electricity -- a run. But can that momentum be my maintained?

:08:20. > :08:26.Presumably not. I presume the strong yen is playing a part and

:08:26. > :08:31.also the events in Europe. Those things are inextricably linked. The

:08:31. > :08:39.turmoil in Europe means investors look for a safe haven, somewhere

:08:39. > :08:45.where there is no risk of inflation so they turn to Japan. That

:08:45. > :08:49.prompted the government to intervene. The other big issue is

:08:49. > :08:53.the flooding in Thailand. Just as those supply chains were recovering

:08:53. > :08:57.from the earthquake they got hit by the flooding in Thailand. Many

:08:57. > :09:00.Japanese companies looking to escape the high yen have opened up

:09:00. > :09:05.factories there in recent years and they were in the way when the

:09:05. > :09:10.flooding happened. Thank you for joining us. Some Other stories and

:09:10. > :09:14.President Obama has announced the broad outline for plans to create a

:09:14. > :09:19.trans-Pacific free-trade zone at an annual regional summit in Hawaii.

:09:19. > :09:24.Nine APEC nations are involved but China has not expressed interest in

:09:24. > :09:33.joining the talks. APEC countries account for about 44% of global

:09:33. > :09:39.trade. Dubai baste Emirates Airlines has ordered $18 billion

:09:39. > :09:45.worth of airlines. It is the single largest aircraft order for Boeing