:00:08. > :00:12.Those are the latest headlines. Is it or have not a recession -- is
:00:12. > :00:20.it a recession or not? We will talk about that Tim World Business
:00:20. > :00:25.Report. On a knife-edge. Is the UK economy
:00:25. > :00:30.heading back into recession? Investors look to the Federal
:00:30. > :00:35.Reserve for hints on the direction of the US economy.
:00:35. > :00:45.Corporate Japan is expected to report strong results as the
:00:45. > :00:47.
:00:47. > :00:53.earnings season is in full swing. In the next few hours we will find
:00:54. > :00:58.out whether the UK has fallen back into recession. An apparent slump
:00:58. > :01:05.in construction means the services sector will have to report solid
:01:05. > :01:08.growth if the economy is to avoid a recession. Most economists think
:01:09. > :01:17.Britain will scrape through with growth in the first three months of
:01:17. > :01:27.the year at just 0.1%. In the final quarter of last year the economy
:01:27. > :01:30.
:01:30. > :01:38.shrank by 0.3%. Let me ask you, which can find you bin? I am in the
:01:38. > :01:43.middle. I am at zero, zero growth for the first quarter. A lot
:01:43. > :01:50.depends on things, erratic bin is like construction and industrial
:01:50. > :01:58.output has been very mixed. The services sector is doing quite well.
:01:58. > :02:03.Really, it is flat. This is just, the Office of budget
:02:03. > :02:06.responsibility... Revenue will be down for the government. It is
:02:06. > :02:11.interesting because we want to know what effect this will have on
:02:11. > :02:21.businesses and consumers. If we do get a technical recession, would
:02:21. > :02:22.
:02:22. > :02:26.that, does that make people change? It does, I think. The eurozone is
:02:26. > :02:31.flaring up again in terms of problems and it will probably have
:02:31. > :02:39.a recession this year. For the UK to slip into recession, even if it
:02:40. > :02:46.is only tiny... we are looking at growth of 0.4%, it is not great but
:02:46. > :02:50.it is better. We have had, let's be fair, we have had some better
:02:50. > :02:56.economic news in recent times. The unemployment rate coming down and
:02:57. > :03:06.we have seen a bit of a boost in retail sales. It is not complete
:03:06. > :03:11.legal armour. No the underlying growth is there. Things will
:03:11. > :03:16.disturb it in the second quarter. The Queen's Jubilee holiday. Don't
:03:16. > :03:22.forget about the gas leak in the North Sea. That will have an impact
:03:22. > :03:25.for the first quarter but a larger impact on the second quarter. It is
:03:25. > :03:31.not until the third quarter with the Olympics that it will look like
:03:31. > :03:37.we are starting to grow. As well as that it is often the case that when
:03:37. > :03:42.we get provisional numbers they are often revised. We shouldn't perhaps
:03:42. > :03:46.get too carried away with the first number. The Office of National
:03:46. > :03:53.Statistics is under some pressure anyway because a lot of the numbers
:03:53. > :03:57.coming out from them have to be revised. We look at this number, we
:03:57. > :04:05.might be in recession. By next quarter we might be out of it. The
:04:05. > :04:12.UK economy is not growing enough for us really, even if we are
:04:12. > :04:16.forecasting 0.4% growth for the rest of the year.
:04:16. > :04:21.The Federal Reserve will have plenty to say about the US economy.
:04:21. > :04:31.That is when its policy meeting ends on Wednesday. We are expecting
:04:31. > :04:34.
:04:34. > :04:39.a statement, a forecast and a news conference. There is not much
:04:39. > :04:43.chance of a shift. 12 people are meeting in this
:04:43. > :04:48.building. They sit on the committee that controls the supply of money
:04:48. > :04:53.and credit to the US economy. This time around they are wrestling with
:04:53. > :05:00.signals pointing in opposite directions. With inflation rising a
:05:00. > :05:07.bit faster than anticipated thanks to higher oil prices but an economy
:05:07. > :05:11.that risks losing momentum it is a tricky balancing act. We don't
:05:11. > :05:16.think this will be a meeting when we will have the Fed trying to send
:05:16. > :05:20.a strong signal about changing direction. It is about doing the
:05:20. > :05:28.outlook for the economy, the risk, financial developments going
:05:28. > :05:33.forward. The elephant in the room is jobs. More jobs is good news for
:05:33. > :05:43.workers and Royce but could make the task of controlling price rises
:05:43. > :05:44.
:05:44. > :05:50.more difficult. It obviously affects how you do you the amount
:05:51. > :05:56.of slack in the economy, relevant for future inflation. This is the
:05:56. > :06:01.New York Federal Reserve. The staff here implement many of the
:06:01. > :06:06.decisions taken in Washington. It is not likely they will get any
:06:06. > :06:10.extra work to do so soon. The chances are the policy workers will
:06:10. > :06:18.decide to sit tight and in effect do-nothing until they know whether
:06:18. > :06:24.the economy will get worse or better.
:06:24. > :06:33.We go to Singapore now and will look at the Japanese earnings a
:06:33. > :06:38.season which is under way. Everyone has been focusing their
:06:38. > :06:42.eyes on the US earnings this season and it has been better than
:06:42. > :06:47.expected so far. Now everyone is looking at the third biggest
:06:47. > :06:57.economy and how they will fare after the earthquake, tsunami and
:06:57. > :06:59.
:06:59. > :07:05.the nuclear disaster in March 2011. The key point is Canon. They are
:07:05. > :07:12.expecting to post a strong profits with a rise of about 20% compared
:07:12. > :07:21.to year ago levels. Excuse me. Investors also expect the rest of
:07:21. > :07:31.the country's N's to be on the rebound. This is being reflected by
:07:31. > :07:32.
:07:32. > :07:39.stock valuations. They expect to see a jump of nearly 70%, far
:07:39. > :07:44.better compared to the US companies. That is basically compared to a
:07:44. > :07:51.loss of almost one-third of last year after the country was hit by
:07:51. > :08:01.the triple disaster. Analysts say corporate earnings are definitely
:08:01. > :08:02.
:08:02. > :08:12.on the mend. I do not know why I am coughing, and there seems to be
:08:12. > :08:18.something in my throat. In spite of the more positive outlook, Alice
:08:18. > :08:28.say there are several risks are lurking in corporate Japan. --
:08:28. > :08:29.
:08:29. > :08:35.analysts say. The currency is still strong which is a drag on growth
:08:35. > :08:39.and competitiveness. You did brilliantly. Thank you for
:08:39. > :08:44.persevering. We will look at some of the other
:08:44. > :08:50.stories making the headlines. The world's most valuable company,
:08:50. > :08:57.Apple, has reported another jump in sales sending its share price up by
:08:57. > :09:02.7%. Profits almost doubled in the first three months of this year.
:09:02. > :09:07.Apple has sold more than 35 million iPhones in the quarter and nearly
:09:07. > :09:12.12 million iPads. Investors had been fearing the worst after the
:09:12. > :09:17.share price fell by 13% in the last couple of weeks.
:09:17. > :09:22.The US justice department has made the first arrest in at the BP while
:09:22. > :09:32.Max Bill Kay's. An engineer has been arrested on charges of
:09:32. > :09:34.
:09:34. > :09:41.destroying evidence. In Asian markets not a bad