:00:00. > :00:00.crisis in the region began. Those are the latest headlines from
:00:00. > :00:00.BBC World News. Now for the latest financial news with Sally and World
:00:00. > :00:19.Business Report. How fiscally strong could an
:00:20. > :00:26.independent Scotland be? We examine the capacity of its jewel in the
:00:27. > :00:29.crown, oil. French companies want fewer rules,
:00:30. > :00:31.lower payroll charges and less state involvement in their business.
:00:32. > :00:40.President Francois Hollande's government says it will deliver if
:00:41. > :00:46.it survives a confidence vote today. Welcome to World Business Report.
:00:47. > :00:49.I'm Sally Bundock. Also in the programme: the Alibaba roadshow is
:00:50. > :00:55.now in Singapore. We'll connect with our team there for the latest.
:00:56. > :00:58.Many would agree, Scotland's oil industry is arguably the jewel in
:00:59. > :01:04.the crown of the pro`independence campaign. According to the Scottish
:01:05. > :01:07.National Party, an independent Scotland will have access to 21
:01:08. > :01:09.billion barrels of North Sea oil reserve and the Yes campaign
:01:10. > :01:13.estimates these oil assets will generate tax revenues of ?7 billion
:01:14. > :01:24.a year on average for the next five years ` that's about $11 billion.
:01:25. > :01:37.But these forecasts are disputed by many. The Scottish oil and gas
:01:38. > :01:40.Independent Expert Commission report says a more realistic reserves
:01:41. > :01:44.figure is in fact just 15`16.5 billion barrels during the next five
:01:45. > :01:47.years. These lower reserve, along with a slowing production rate and
:01:48. > :01:49.lower oil prices, are behind the independent Office for Budget
:01:50. > :02:01.Responsibility's estimate of ?3.5 a year in tax revenues. `` 3.5
:02:02. > :02:04.billion. That's almost $6 billion and that is half of what the Yes
:02:05. > :02:07.campaign has forecast. Sir Ian Wood, a respected oil and gas industry
:02:08. > :02:10.expert, puts his most optimistic forecast at ?5 billion a year
:02:11. > :02:14.leaving a substantial ?2 billion hole in Scotland's public finances.
:02:15. > :02:18.And this is supported by leaders in the oil industry. The chief
:02:19. > :02:26.executive's of Shell and BP say that Wood's assessment is correct.
:02:27. > :02:34.John McLaren is leading economist and co`founder of the independent
:02:35. > :02:39.think tank, Fiscal Affairs Scotland. Lots of different numbers there.
:02:40. > :02:45.Quite a wide difference of opinion. What do you believe? The reason for
:02:46. > :02:49.the different numbers, it is difficult to forecast the revenue
:02:50. > :02:54.for a number of reasons. Production can vary up and down. The price in
:02:55. > :02:59.particular is variable and the taxable amount of value can be due
:03:00. > :03:04.to incentives and relief. It can vary year by year. Those figures are
:03:05. > :03:09.all possible. One of the things to remember is that across the full
:03:10. > :03:13.range, even at the top of the range, Scotland would be no better
:03:14. > :03:21.off than the UK in terms of fiscal position. If it was at the bottom it
:03:22. > :03:26.would be quite a lot worse off. In terms of, would it be better or
:03:27. > :03:30.worse off, it is difficult to see how, looking into the future, given
:03:31. > :03:35.most people think production will fall, that Scotland would struggle
:03:36. > :03:39.to be in the same position it currently is. Looking at your
:03:40. > :03:43.analysis as an independent organisation you do not believe
:03:44. > :03:49.Scotland will be a schoolies stronger as an independent nation?
:03:50. > :03:57.The figures at the minute suggest it will be worse off it difficult to
:03:58. > :04:01.tell how. Oil`price in particular is hugely difficult to forecast. If it
:04:02. > :04:07.went up to $150 it would be better off. If it fell to $80, $70, it
:04:08. > :04:13.would be worse off. It is one of these ones, you really can have a
:04:14. > :04:17.wide range to discuss these things. Even in the range being talked about
:04:18. > :04:22.at the moment, with the Scottish government's own figures, they come
:04:23. > :04:32.off at best the same, that Scotland would be in the UK. With it being so
:04:33. > :04:38.difficult to forecast, it is very hard for an independent Scotland to
:04:39. > :04:42.know and plan for a long`term future. Many argue it is the
:04:43. > :04:45.long`term future that they are voting for. They know in the short
:04:46. > :04:52.term there will be pain and struggles as they adjust. The
:04:53. > :05:00.figures about how much oil is left, it is important in terms of how long
:05:01. > :05:05.oil lasts but it is over what period of time that extra production might
:05:06. > :05:08.come out. It is unlikely that the revenue from that production will
:05:09. > :05:12.rise significantly. They are probably going to keep falling as
:05:13. > :05:19.the price changes. What it means is it helps the budget over a number of
:05:20. > :05:27.years, perhaps 50 rather than 30. There will not be a huge bounce
:05:28. > :05:33.back, a second wave like in the 1980s when Scotland would be better
:05:34. > :05:36.off if it kept the tax revenue. We appreciate your time, thank you very
:05:37. > :05:39.much. French President Francois Hollande
:05:40. > :05:44.faces a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly today amid record
:05:45. > :05:47.low poll ratings. It comes three weeks after Prime Minister Manuel
:05:48. > :05:49.Valls announced a new cabinet line`up, with a clear shift towards
:05:50. > :05:54.more business`friendly economic policies. This has angered many on
:05:55. > :05:58.the left of the Socialist party, who've threatened to oppose the new
:05:59. > :06:07.line. Hugh Schofield reports from Paris.
:06:08. > :06:12.It is a crucial test for the Prime Minister. Three weeks ago he took
:06:13. > :06:16.the head of a new government having fired two of his dominant left wing
:06:17. > :06:23.critics. Now he's putting his credibility on the line. He needs
:06:24. > :06:25.this vote of confidence in Parliament to ensure support for his
:06:26. > :06:30.pro`business line. Many in his own party are suspicious. They fear the
:06:31. > :06:36.government has jumped its commitment to helping the poor and budget cuts
:06:37. > :06:41.and deficit productions are making a bad economic situation worse. The
:06:42. > :06:45.timing of the vote is not helpful. The President has just been through
:06:46. > :06:50.another torrid period. A kiss and tell book by his ex` partner has
:06:51. > :06:56.been a severe embarrassment. And the economic news keeps getting
:06:57. > :07:01.grimmer. Unemployment stuck at over 10% and the government's budget
:07:02. > :07:08.reduction is proving to be wildly optimistic. But he will tell the
:07:09. > :07:12.assembly there is no alternative to his idea, gradually lightening the
:07:13. > :07:17.tax burden on business so it has the confidence to start creating jobs
:07:18. > :07:22.and reducing the scale of public spending. It is reckoned there are
:07:23. > :07:26.between 30 and 40 potential rebels in the Socialist party ranks. So the
:07:27. > :07:31.vote should be close. The government has one ace up its sleeve. The
:07:32. > :07:35.rebels know if the government were to four new elections would leave
:07:36. > :07:40.the Socialist party in pieces and many would lose their seats in the
:07:41. > :07:49.National Assembly. A good argument for leaving the government in place
:07:50. > :07:52.full `` for now. China's e`commerce giant, Alibaba,
:07:53. > :07:55.has boosted the price of its US share float to between $66 and $68 a
:07:56. > :07:58.share, in a sign there's strong investor demand for its initial
:07:59. > :08:03.share offering. The news comes as the Alibaba roadshow arrives in
:08:04. > :08:06.Singapore. You can see the man in charge behind me. Ashleigh Nghiem is
:08:07. > :08:12.in Singapore for us today and gauging the appetite for this share
:08:13. > :08:18.sale there. Good morning. From outside the Ritz
:08:19. > :08:25.Carlton hotel in Singapore. This is where we believe the roadshow has
:08:26. > :08:29.moved today. This meeting has been shrouded in a lot of secrecy and
:08:30. > :08:34.very few details have been made available. If the past roadshows
:08:35. > :08:38.including the one yesterday in Hong Kong are to be any guide then
:08:39. > :08:44.investors should expect to be treated to a special lunch and an
:08:45. > :08:49.appearance by a representative from Alibaba. There are few details from
:08:50. > :09:01.the meeting but if the share price goes ahead, Alibaba stands to raise
:09:02. > :09:07.a lot. This just goes to show the huge interest. From Singapore the
:09:08. > :09:13.roadshow will head to London before making its way to Chicago.
:09:14. > :09:21.That is all we have time for but we will see if he turns up later.
:09:22. > :09:24.Air France has warned that disruption will get worse as a
:09:25. > :09:27.week`long strike by its pilots continues. It said 60% of its
:09:28. > :09:30.flights were likely to be cancelled on Tuesday as a result of the
:09:31. > :09:33.strike, which began on Monday. The pilots are protesting against a
:09:34. > :09:35.transfer of jobs by the airline to its low`cost European carrier,
:09:36. > :09:46.Transavia, which is being expanded as part of a new strategic plan.
:09:47. > :09:51.Lufthansa is experiencing strike action today as well. Hong Kong is
:09:52. > :10:01.closed because of concern about a typhoon heading in its direction.
:10:02. > :10:15.Japan is down. The papers in a minute. See you then.
:10:16. > :10:23.More evidence of the pressure on the mental health services in England
:10:24. > :10:24.has been revealed this morning. More than one in