:00:00. > :00:00.Now for the latest financial news with Sally and
:00:00. > :00:20.Moving on up - oil prices continue to rally as the cold weather
:00:21. > :00:25.Trading places - it's Japan's turn to reveal its weakest exports
:00:26. > :00:36.for three years, putting pressure on its central bank to act.
:00:37. > :00:40.Welcome to World Business Report. I'm Sally Bundock.
:00:41. > :00:42.Also in the programme, we discuss the outlook for Portugal
:00:43. > :00:50.We start with the price of this black stuff, but this time we're
:00:51. > :00:53.talking about oil prices going up - and analysts are now rethinking
:00:54. > :00:58.As I'm sure you are well aware, oil prices have seen dramatic falls over
:00:59. > :01:02.the past 18 months, with prices now just a fraction of the peak in the
:01:03. > :01:08.There is simply too much of it around.
:01:09. > :01:11.At the moment between one and two million barrels of oil every day is
:01:12. > :01:17.This as producers battle it out to try and gain market share.
:01:18. > :01:20.The International Energy Agency says unless something changes,
:01:21. > :01:24.then the oil market could drown in oversupply.
:01:25. > :01:38.I could see a price of $30 up to $40 in the middle of the year, and at
:01:39. > :01:40.the end of the year, $50. I think the oil price in six months'
:01:41. > :01:44.time would be $35-45 a barrel. I think it will be about $35
:01:45. > :01:47.in six months. There is little demand
:01:48. > :01:48.and oversupply. We want to blame China, but this is
:01:49. > :01:54.not really the only problem. Nobody knows what the oil price
:01:55. > :01:57.will be, but my prediction is $30. I will bet $20.
:01:58. > :02:05.You know the reason. The oil price will be $15 a barrel
:02:06. > :02:09.because of the extraordinary glut It might even go
:02:10. > :02:19.down to $5 a barrel. I'm sure it will keep on going
:02:20. > :02:31.down and down. There you have it, a very diverse
:02:32. > :02:36.range of predictions on where the price of oil is going. Hopefully we
:02:37. > :02:40.will get another expert view for you live on the show.
:02:41. > :02:42.Japan's latest trade figures are out, and it looks
:02:43. > :02:45.like the slowdown in the global economy is taking a toll.
:02:46. > :02:47.Exports fell 8% in December from a year earlier,
:02:48. > :02:56.Sharanjit Leyl is in our Asia Business Hub in Singapore.
:02:57. > :03:09.Phil asked in on Japan. -- philistine. Not good numbers. No,
:03:10. > :03:16.not at all. You do have these low oil prices, and that has helped
:03:17. > :03:20.narrow to ten's trade deficit. That is actually helped to some degree. A
:03:21. > :03:26.lot of investors are looking towards the key bank of Japan meeting later
:03:27. > :03:32.this week. That was shed more clues on what is happening there. China's
:03:33. > :03:35.slowdown continues to affect demand from Japan and elsewhere in the
:03:36. > :03:42.region. They are looking to set up monetary policy. Lastly, we saw the
:03:43. > :03:47.chief of the central bank hinting at monetary stingers. The bank of Japan
:03:48. > :03:53.may do likewise foreign-based downbeat economic reports --
:03:54. > :03:58.monetary stimulus. We are also watching for expectations of the
:03:59. > :04:04.Federal Reserve. All of that casting a bit of a call on the rest of the
:04:05. > :04:07.week, even though we are seeing Asian markets rising strongly this
:04:08. > :04:16.Monday, including the Nikkei. Pretty much shagging off the details of
:04:17. > :04:24.this downbeat economic data -- shrugging off. It is unusual when
:04:25. > :04:32.you think about the Mondays we have had so far this year. Let's return
:04:33. > :04:38.to oil. Our expert is able to join us live now from Aberdeen. I don't
:04:39. > :04:42.know if you were able to hear some of those predictions we got from
:04:43. > :04:50.people in Davos earlier, but the price of oil is headed higher. We
:04:51. > :04:57.have had a short-term issue with supply and demand, and issues around
:04:58. > :05:02.the slowing of Chinese growth. The belief is that the price will rise
:05:03. > :05:07.as supply and demand come closer in balance. What are your thoughts on
:05:08. > :05:18.the price at the moment, around $32 a barrel. For this you, what do you
:05:19. > :05:23.guys predict? I think we will see it rising further as the year goes by.
:05:24. > :05:29.Many were taking by surprise was how low the prices being, although we
:05:30. > :05:36.have quickly adjusted to that. The response from our participants in
:05:37. > :05:43.our survey suggest industry expects a higher price in the medium-term.
:05:44. > :05:51.What about the introduction of more oil coming from Iran? That
:05:52. > :05:54.inevitably has an impact, in the short-term, but I think that has
:05:55. > :05:59.been factored in in anticipation of it happening, and I think we will
:06:00. > :06:03.see a higher price in the longer term. We have to leave it there, but
:06:04. > :06:08.we appreciate your time this morning. Let's talk about Portugal.
:06:09. > :06:11.and television pundit Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has won Portugal's
:06:12. > :06:14.With nearly 99% of the vote counted, the 67-year-old
:06:15. > :06:20.is winning 52% - enough to avoid a run-off.
:06:21. > :06:22.The post of president is mainly ceremonial, but the head
:06:23. > :06:34.Portugal is currently governed by a shaky left-wing coalition.
:06:35. > :06:39.With me is Marc Ostwald, Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services.
:06:40. > :06:50.Good morning. He has come in saying he will heal Portugal and will build
:06:51. > :06:57.bridges. He will try to be wrong is of recent history. He has a task
:06:58. > :07:03.ahead of him. -- right the wrongs. He needs to ensure Portugal has a
:07:04. > :07:12.steady government that can deliver the measures they want. The current
:07:13. > :07:17.governing coalition is vulnerable to threats from the far left and the
:07:18. > :07:23.Communist bloc who support the Socialist Party. Up until now, with
:07:24. > :07:26.the previous president, he could not dissolve parliament because he was
:07:27. > :07:30.in the last six months of his term. If there are disagreements,
:07:31. > :07:35.hopefully they can now go to fresh elections if it is going nowhere.
:07:36. > :07:40.That in itself would be healing, because trying to cobble together
:07:41. > :07:44.these loose coalitions which really have no sense of purpose and don't
:07:45. > :07:48.drive the country forward, is not the way to go for a country like
:07:49. > :07:55.Portugal. How is the economy doing? It is a country that obviously
:07:56. > :08:00.needed to be bailed out by the likes of the EU and International Monetary
:08:01. > :08:06.Fund, and was given severe austerity plans as a consequence of the
:08:07. > :08:11.bailout. How is the economy doing at the moment given the difficulty with
:08:12. > :08:19.the politics? The economy is not doing too badly. It is going about
:08:20. > :08:24.1% up to 1.7% per annum, which in European terms is not too bad. The
:08:25. > :08:29.most important benefit Portugal has is now that a lot of the economies
:08:30. > :08:32.which were under austerity are starting to pick up again. Its main
:08:33. > :08:37.export partners are countries like Spain and Italy and France, and they
:08:38. > :08:43.are beginning to pick up. That is probably the biggest thing for the
:08:44. > :08:47.economy, if they can get some of the austerity measures rolled back and
:08:48. > :08:52.softened somewhat, and if they can have a stable government to
:08:53. > :08:56.encourage people to invest more in Portugal. That is the key, because
:08:57. > :09:03.this new coalition government is not clear what its mandate is. It is
:09:04. > :09:09.definitely anti- austerity. Perhaps trying to nationalise part of the
:09:10. > :09:14.economy which have been advertised. Yes, that is the fundamental
:09:15. > :09:17.problem. International investors, if they are offered something in
:09:18. > :09:22.privatisation, don't want the next government to come in and say we
:09:23. > :09:25.want to take that back. It creates uncertainty in the investment
:09:26. > :09:30.environment. Thank you for coming in. We will keep a close eye on how
:09:31. > :09:36.things go in Portugal given the latest episode in its political
:09:37. > :09:40.history. U the markets. It is Monday morning, and we have gains across
:09:41. > :09:46.the board and the rise of oil coming up as well -- let's show you the
:09:47. > :09:51.markets. It was a strong end to the day on Wall Street on Friday. Let's
:09:52. > :09:52.see how long that lasts. That is all for World Business Report. See you
:09:53. > :10:00.soon. A committee of MPs has warned
:10:01. > :10:02.charities that their fundraising activities could be controlled by
:10:03. > :10:05.law unless a new voluntary regulator They said it was the
:10:06. > :10:11."last chance" for self-regulation of