08/08/2016

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:00:00. > :00:00.Those are the latest headlines from BBC World News.

:00:00. > :00:00.Now for the latest financial news with Sally and World Business

:00:00. > :00:17.Building walls and trashing trade agreements, Donald Trump lays

:00:18. > :00:19.out his economic plans for the world's biggest economy today.

:00:20. > :00:25.And China shows further signs of weakness.

:00:26. > :00:27.The latest trade figures came in worse than expected,

:00:28. > :00:37.with exports shrinking for 21st month in a row.

:00:38. > :00:45.Welcome to World Business Report, I'm Sally Bundock.

:00:46. > :00:47.Also in the programme: We will get some top career tips

:00:48. > :00:50.from the founder of the world's largest foreign exchange company,

:00:51. > :00:57.We start in the US, where Donald Trump will be hoping

:00:58. > :01:00.to jump-start his presidential campaign, after a difficult week

:01:01. > :01:06.The Republican candidate is in Detroit where he will try

:01:07. > :01:09.to win over voters, and his speech is expected to outline his plans

:01:10. > :01:13.Trump has already outlined several of his key policies.

:01:14. > :01:15.Let's take a look at what we know so far.

:01:16. > :01:18.The billionaire businessman has proposed a series of tax cuts

:01:19. > :01:22.A Republican government would see the top rate of corporation tax cut

:01:23. > :01:32.That is a reduction of more than half.

:01:33. > :01:35.Mr Trump has also vowed to put American workers first.

:01:36. > :01:37.He proposes to do that by strengthening borders,

:01:38. > :01:40.and says he will deport any illegal immigrants out of the country.

:01:41. > :01:42.It is estimated this could see some 11 million people,

:01:43. > :01:45.or 3.5% of the population, removed from the United States.

:01:46. > :01:47.Protectionism is another big issue for the Republican candidate.

:01:48. > :01:51.Mr Trump has proposed a 45% levy on Chinese goods and a 35% tax

:01:52. > :02:09.He hopes this will safeguard American jobs, but his opponents

:02:10. > :02:11.suggest that this could spark an all-out trade war.

:02:12. > :02:14.Peter Morici is an academic at the University of Maryland,

:02:15. > :02:16.and a former chief economist at the US International Trade

:02:17. > :02:32.Good morning, all good evening as is the case where you are. Thank you

:02:33. > :02:38.for being on the programme. As ever with the Donald Trump story, it is

:02:39. > :02:43.extremely divisive, with strong opinions on both sides about his

:02:44. > :02:47.economic plans. What are your thoughts? Well, I think if we're

:02:48. > :02:54.talking about imposing a tariff on China for the purpose of our

:02:55. > :02:58.relationship with them, kind of Brexit move, then it makes some

:02:59. > :03:02.sense. If we are talking about closing our borders, it makes no

:03:03. > :03:06.sense at all. We can't deport 11 million people, that is absurd. The

:03:07. > :03:10.time has passed when we can say that these people are here illegally and

:03:11. > :03:16.must leave. Many of them have had children here, this is getting to be

:03:17. > :03:20.a bit absurd. So a lot of it is absurd, as you say, but will it be

:03:21. > :03:23.one of those situations where it is about winning votes prior to getting

:03:24. > :03:28.the job and if he does get the job his team around him will advise him

:03:29. > :03:32.on a more rational way? Well, when I look at the economic advisory team

:03:33. > :03:37.that he appointed on Friday, I would say no. My feeling is he has got a

:03:38. > :03:42.bunch of financial guys who are buddies of his, real estate people

:03:43. > :03:47.and so forth, it is very thin on economic and public policy

:03:48. > :03:54.expertise. Of those, some of those with expertise are a bit gadflyish

:03:55. > :03:57.with their attitudes. He can't get reputable people to advise him. Not

:03:58. > :04:01.that the committee is devoid of reputable people but I am largely

:04:02. > :04:05.can't get reputable economists to work with him. OK, so you are

:04:06. > :04:10.concerned about the team around him but the issue is also if he gets the

:04:11. > :04:14.job in November, to what extent can you push radical change through

:04:15. > :04:17.anyway, given how the Congress is sort of playing out, and also you've

:04:18. > :04:22.got things like an independent Federal Reserve that would hopefully

:04:23. > :04:28.have some sort of influence? Well, the Federal Reserve is vulnerable,

:04:29. > :04:33.and some economists on the team, one of whom is very critical of the

:04:34. > :04:38.Federal Reserve policy, they could find allies in the Congress and that

:04:39. > :04:42.would undermine the Fed's independence, that concerns me a

:04:43. > :04:46.great deal. Imposing a large tariff requires congressional approval. You

:04:47. > :04:50.could do it on an emergency basis as a short-term thing to force

:04:51. > :04:55.negotiations with China but you really can't, for example, just rip

:04:56. > :05:01.up Nafta and throw it out the window, as we are electing a

:05:02. > :05:05.president and not a dictator. A big drop in corporation tax, and also on

:05:06. > :05:11.taxes for all individuals in America, regardless of what they are

:05:12. > :05:14.earning. How do you add that up, how will, therefore, the Federal

:05:15. > :05:18.Government pay for things if they are getting less money coming in? I

:05:19. > :05:22.can tell you categorically that tax cut is not going to happen. There

:05:23. > :05:27.will be a tax cut, but not the Trump tax cut. It will cost $1 trillion a

:05:28. > :05:32.year, that is an enormous slice of US federal revenue. He would simply

:05:33. > :05:37.have to accept a much smaller tax cut and also cuts in spending and

:05:38. > :05:42.other places to pay for some of it. You just cannot justify these kinds

:05:43. > :05:47.of rate cuts, they are so Draconian. And I am an economic conservative, I

:05:48. > :05:51.want lower taxes and less government at this is witchery. And who is your

:05:52. > :05:56.money on, finally, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Who is going to get

:05:57. > :06:01.the job in November? Hillary Clinton is going to win. Donald Trump is

:06:02. > :06:05.running an undisciplined campaign which is largely a family operation.

:06:06. > :06:09.He has surrounded himself by cronies. It is not a professional

:06:10. > :06:14.campaign. He may be a great real estate wheeler and dealer, but

:06:15. > :06:17.politician he is not. He is out of his element. Thank you for your

:06:18. > :06:20.perspective and later when we hear more of what Mr Trump has been

:06:21. > :06:21.saying in Detroit we shall update you.

:06:22. > :06:24.In the last couple of hours, the latest set of trade statistics

:06:25. > :06:28.Sharanjit Leyl is in Singapore for us.

:06:29. > :06:36.Last time I spoke to you you were with me here in the studio. Nice to

:06:37. > :06:41.see you back in Singapore. How is China doing? Well, not very well

:06:42. > :06:45.unfortunately. Exports and imports falling more than expected in July.

:06:46. > :06:51.It is a sign of a sluggish global demand. We saw deteriorating imports

:06:52. > :06:55.as well to China. That is raising a lot of concerns about the domestic

:06:56. > :07:00.conditions within China. Essentially what we saw was exports falling 4.4%

:07:01. > :07:05.from Asia's largest economy from the previous year. Imports were down

:07:06. > :07:09.12.5% in dollar terms and the trade surplus widening to over $52

:07:10. > :07:13.billion. Officials essentially having to boost fiscal support. They

:07:14. > :07:17.are trying to improve investment and consumption at home but really not

:07:18. > :07:24.resulting in March. You will recall of course it has been a year since

:07:25. > :07:28.China's surprised evaluation of the yuan, the weaker currency isn't

:07:29. > :07:31.really benefiting that much and it really should boost exports.

:07:32. > :07:36.Analysts say that the global economy as well has already been weakened by

:07:37. > :07:41.the UK's surprise vote to leave the EU. It is sluggish, there is

:07:42. > :07:46.increasing uncertainty and it is also interesting to compare

:07:47. > :07:51.Chinaexports as well as imports to different parts of the world.

:07:52. > :07:55.Exports to the US slipping 2%. They fell compared to the European Union

:07:56. > :08:00.bloc imports to Australia, where China has always looked for iron ore

:08:01. > :08:05.and other resources, they slumped some 22%. We also saw oil imports

:08:06. > :08:09.falling the six-month lows, mainly due to the falls in the price of

:08:10. > :08:14.crude. So overall not great news from China at this point. Thank you

:08:15. > :08:15.very much. We will see how that feeds through in markets in a

:08:16. > :08:18.minute. In other news: The UK's

:08:19. > :08:20.Serious Fraud Office has launched an investigation into allegations

:08:21. > :08:22.of fraud, bribery and corruption involving the aircraft

:08:23. > :08:24.manufacturer Airbus. The allegations relate

:08:25. > :08:26.to irregularities concerning the use Airbus said it was co-operating

:08:27. > :08:29.with the probe, which was Now let's turn to the mystifying

:08:30. > :08:43.world of career advice. We asked the boss of the world's

:08:44. > :08:45.largest foreign exchange bureau, Travelex, what he wished he had been

:08:46. > :08:53.told before starting I think the most important thing for

:08:54. > :08:55.anyone building a business today is persistence. Certainly for me in

:08:56. > :08:59.many occasions where it has made a many occasions where it has made a

:09:00. > :09:02.real difference. There is a great quote from Calvin Coolidge, the

:09:03. > :09:07.American President, who once said that nothing in the world can take

:09:08. > :09:12.the place of persistence. Talent will not, Genius will not, education

:09:13. > :09:19.will not. Persistence and determination are alone are

:09:20. > :09:22.omnipotent. Don't necessarily get hung up on qualifications. I've been

:09:23. > :09:26.fortunate enough to recruit some amazing boys and girls who didn't

:09:27. > :09:32.necessarily come with fantastic degrees and MBAs, but were just

:09:33. > :09:36.committed, enthusiastic, really wanted to make a difference. The

:09:37. > :09:40.reverse is also true. I have recruited people with degrees and

:09:41. > :09:45.MBAs who turned out to be useless. It is gut feel. Do the people you

:09:46. > :09:50.want to recruit want to be a part of what you are trying to build? Let's

:09:51. > :09:54.have a look at the markets and you can get a sense of how they are

:09:55. > :09:58.reacting. As you can see, the fact that China is seeing slowing trade

:09:59. > :10:26.growth, not really phasing market at all. The yen, $1 buying just

:10:27. > :10:28.People are under-reporting the amount they eat,