:00:00. > :00:18.Those are the headlines. Now it is time for Sally. THEME PLAYS.
:00:19. > :00:22.The EU's head honcho sets out his vision for the future
:00:23. > :00:28.of the Union after a year of turmoil.
:00:29. > :00:32.The billionaire inventor of the Dyson vacuum cleaner says it
:00:33. > :00:34.would be "suicidal" for the European Union to impose
:00:35. > :00:53.What is the outlook for the oil industry?
:00:54. > :00:56.The International Energy Agency has just published its annual report.
:00:57. > :01:00.First, we start with the European Union.
:01:01. > :01:04.The European Union has the financial muscle to go toe to toe with the US
:01:05. > :01:07.or China and contains some of the worlds most powerful countries.
:01:08. > :01:11.But in recent months the EU has been hit with new major body blows,
:01:12. > :01:14.including of course the UK's decision to leave the Union.
:01:15. > :01:15.Today, it's top politician, Jean-Claude Juncker,
:01:16. > :01:19.will try to deal with some of those problems as he sets out his vision
:01:20. > :01:23.for the future of the block in his State of the Union address.
:01:24. > :01:26.As well as talking about the fallout from Britain's historic vote
:01:27. > :01:29.to leave the Union Mr Junker will be under pressure to outline reforms
:01:30. > :01:32.to head off anti-EU sentiment in other countries.
:01:33. > :01:36.He'll also be looking to address some of the bloc's major financial
:01:37. > :01:39.gremlins with a number of countries running dangerously high debt to GDP
:01:40. > :01:41.ratios including Portugal, Italy and of course Greece.
:01:42. > :01:45.EU countries are allowed to run an annual deficit of up to 3%
:01:46. > :01:47.of GDP, anything more and they can be fined.
:01:48. > :01:50.However with a number of countries currently breaking the rule
:01:51. > :01:53.Mr Junker will need to tread a fine line in his speech.
:01:54. > :01:56.He's got the tricky balancing act of needing to maintain financial
:01:57. > :01:59.stability while at the same time keeping those member states on board
:02:00. > :02:02.who want to borrow more cash to boost their economies.
:02:03. > :02:05.The ongoing refugee crisis in the region has also opened big
:02:06. > :02:07.fault lines across the European Union.
:02:08. > :02:30.Germany alone expects to spend $19.2 billion on refugees in this year.
:02:31. > :02:37.Paul Ivan is a senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre
:02:38. > :02:48.Good morning. Good morning. A tough job ahead. Convincing his audience
:02:49. > :02:53.there is some commonality within the European Union, though he does admit
:02:54. > :02:57.there is an existential crisis. Yes. Certainly. We can see that the
:02:58. > :03:03.crisis he was mentioning last year in his last State of the Union
:03:04. > :03:08.address, is still there. We have stabilisation on a number of them,
:03:09. > :03:14.on the migrant crisis, on the Greek economy and so forth. But the
:03:15. > :03:18.challenges are clearly still there. Like you mentioned, the result of
:03:19. > :03:25.the British referendum will be with us for the next year and on. What
:03:26. > :03:31.will he say it is the key element in his strategy ahead? I think we can
:03:32. > :03:37.expect a higher focus on issues linked to security, the security of
:03:38. > :03:41.the borders and of internal security. We have seen over the last
:03:42. > :03:47.year the number of terrorist attacks taking place in Europe and the
:03:48. > :03:53.problem of the security of the EU's borders continues to remain and thus
:03:54. > :03:59.we need to reinforce those borders and work better together to deal
:04:00. > :04:03.with the challenge, like the migration crisis. I think the focus
:04:04. > :04:09.will be put on the issue of security. When it comes to economic
:04:10. > :04:16.measures, what can we expect? Umm, we already know that there is a plan
:04:17. > :04:23.to increase the Juncker investment fund, which has led to likely
:04:24. > :04:29.results. We will likely hear or on that. And the commission needs to
:04:30. > :04:37.come up with proposals to try to increase the slower economic growth
:04:38. > :04:41.we see across the European Union. In terms of the rifts that are
:04:42. > :04:50.emerging, like the recent spat between Hungary and others with this
:04:51. > :04:59.crisis, what can be European Union due to 60s cracks which are getting
:05:00. > :05:05.larger and larger. -- to fix these. I would not give this incident more
:05:06. > :05:11.attention than it needs. It looks quite strange and I think it has
:05:12. > :05:18.largely to do with the personality of the people involved. All right,
:05:19. > :05:22.Paul Ivan, I am sure he hopes you are right from that point of view.
:05:23. > :05:28.Thank you for your time this morning. Thank you very much. When
:05:29. > :05:33.Jean-Claude Junker starts his speech we will ring you up-to-date on that.
:05:34. > :05:36.More now on the EU and in particular the UK's future outside the Union,
:05:37. > :05:39.One of Britain's most successful business leaders has said that
:05:40. > :05:42.leaving the European Union will liberate the UK economy.
:05:43. > :05:44.Speaking to the BBC's economics editor the Billionaire inventor
:05:45. > :05:48.Sir James Dyson said it would be suicidal for the EU to impose
:05:49. > :05:56.They sell ?100 billion worth of goods more to us than we export to
:05:57. > :06:02.them. They will not block British imports. Even if they did put an
:06:03. > :06:05.import duty on that would be an insignificant amount compared to
:06:06. > :06:12.currency fluctuations. Are not worried with that. We are getting on
:06:13. > :06:22.good with Europe. They are 15% of general trade throughout the world.
:06:23. > :06:25.We are nicely balanced. There are very exciting markets outside of
:06:26. > :06:29.Europe. The far east is expanding at a phenomenal rate. We are very happy
:06:30. > :06:33.to be very globally -based and not focused on Europe. Europe is a great
:06:34. > :06:38.market. It is growing quite fast actually. I am not complaining about
:06:39. > :06:42.it. It is a very nice market for us we have some wonderful employees in
:06:43. > :06:46.Europe. But it is only 15% of global trade. The last thing they are going
:06:47. > :06:52.to do is imposed these duties. It is suicidal for them. Do you worry that
:06:53. > :06:56.the rest of the EU, not having access to the single market, will
:06:57. > :07:00.slow down the British economy generally, and will have an effect
:07:01. > :07:06.on business people herewe have access to it. They want access to
:07:07. > :07:10.our market and vice-versa. The import duty is a negligible issue.
:07:11. > :07:17.Currency fluctuations are far greater than that. Variance is far
:07:18. > :07:22.greater than that. There is a huge market, 85% global trade is not in
:07:23. > :07:26.Europe. Let us go off to that. And, by the way, that is the biggest
:07:27. > :07:30.expanding area. The British Commonwealth, who speak English, and
:07:31. > :07:31.who have affinities with us, we should be going for those markets as
:07:32. > :07:33.well. Interesting. Global investment in the exploration
:07:34. > :07:36.and production of oil and gas is expected to fall by 24% this year
:07:37. > :07:39.as the industry grapples with the lower prices
:07:40. > :07:42.and massive over supply. That's the conclusion
:07:43. > :07:44.of the International Energy Agency who have today released their annual
:07:45. > :07:46.global Energy Investment report In total $1.8 trillion were invested
:07:47. > :07:50.in the supply of energy last year, Of that, around half,
:07:51. > :07:54.or $900 billion, was invested in oil, gas and coal,
:07:55. > :07:57.down a whopping 18% on 2014. The worst hit sector was the US
:07:58. > :08:01.shale oil industry which has now seen 52% drop in investment
:08:02. > :08:03.in the past two years. On the up side, renewable's
:08:04. > :08:06.investment, primarily in wind, solar and hydropower came close
:08:07. > :08:09.to $290 billion last year as countries increasing shift away
:08:10. > :08:11.from carbon heavy fuel sources. And we will be speaking to the Head
:08:12. > :08:48.of the IEA in a couple of hours. Brazil's government has
:08:49. > :08:50.announced today a fresh round of privatisations and tenders
:08:51. > :08:53.with the aim of raising $7 billion. South Americas largest economy
:08:54. > :08:55.will privatise four airports and offer a wide range of contracts
:08:56. > :08:59.far from new roads and railroads The plan is are part
:09:00. > :09:03.of an initiative launched by Brazil's new president,
:09:04. > :09:19.Michel Temer, which aims to increase Brazil's governments are so does not
:09:20. > :09:23.have the money to build new infrastructure. That is because of
:09:24. > :09:29.the deep recession that the country is facing. So it is opening up new
:09:30. > :09:32.investment opportunities for a private firm foreign and domestic
:09:33. > :09:37.survey will build new roads, railroads, operate oil and gas, and
:09:38. > :09:43.operate four major airports in large resilient cities. At critics say
:09:44. > :09:47.that opening up $7 billion in investment opportunities might not
:09:48. > :09:50.be enough. That's because similar attempts have been made by the
:09:51. > :09:54.Brazilian government in the past. And those contracts never attracted
:09:55. > :09:59.offers from private investors as they were not lucrative enough. The
:10:00. > :10:04.challenge for this government is to draft a new contract that can do two
:10:05. > :10:07.things, bring new investors that will invest in infrastructure that
:10:08. > :10:12.will lift Brazil's economy, but also bring in money that is needed for
:10:13. > :10:20.the public coffers, which are in a very difficult financial situation.
:10:21. > :10:23.Daniel Gallas, BBC News, Sao Paulo. That is World Business Report. See
:10:24. > :10:24.you