:00:00. > :00:00.that attracted 10,000 pilots and some strange aircraft.
:00:00. > :00:13.with Aaron and World Business Report.
:00:14. > :00:16.Watch out for a hard landing in China.
:00:17. > :00:19.Yes, one of the world's leading economists tells us,
:00:20. > :00:24.the BBC, that he's worried about a slowdown in China.
:00:25. > :00:27.In fact, he tells us it's the great threat to our global economy.
:00:28. > :00:33.And as India prepares to launch its latest satellite
:00:34. > :00:35.with five other countries piggy-backing on the same lift-off,
:00:36. > :00:38.we're asking could rockets like this one be money-making machines
:00:39. > :00:59.If you're tuning in for the first time, stay where you are because I'm
:01:00. > :01:02.only asking for about eight minutes. This is a bite-size exciting
:01:03. > :01:07.snapshot of the latest in business and money with lots going on. We
:01:08. > :01:12.will talk about the India launch and oil and OPEC, does OPEC have any
:01:13. > :01:13.power left? I don't know, we have an expert in the studio waiting right
:01:14. > :01:14.over there. The former chief economist
:01:15. > :01:17.of the International Monetary Fund has said that a slowdown in China
:01:18. > :01:19.is the greatest threat Ken Rogoff said that a calamitous
:01:20. > :01:24.hard landing for one of the main engines of global growth could not
:01:25. > :01:28.be ruled out and that China has been slowing down faster
:01:29. > :01:30.than official fugures suggest. So what is happening
:01:31. > :01:32.with China's economy? China's borrowings hit $25.6
:01:33. > :01:35.trillion at the end of 2015. This figure includes government,
:01:36. > :01:37.corporate and household borrowings. China's debt is now nearly 250%
:01:38. > :01:39.greater than the value of what it produces
:01:40. > :01:58.every year, or its GDP. This is due to Beijing's
:01:59. > :02:03.repeated use of cheap credit This has unleashed a huge,
:02:04. > :02:18.debt-fuelled spending binge. Ken Rogoff has been speaking
:02:19. > :02:32.to our economics editor, There's no question it's really
:02:33. > :02:37.China. China has been the engine of global growth, the US is picking up
:02:38. > :02:41.but China has been really important and China is going through a big
:02:42. > :02:45.political revolution, there's no question about that. The economy has
:02:46. > :02:49.slowed down much more than the official official figures show and
:02:50. > :02:53.if you want to look at a part of the world that has a debt problem, look
:02:54. > :02:57.at China, they've had a credit fuelled growth and these things
:02:58. > :03:01.don't go on forever. Everyone says China's different, the state owns
:03:02. > :03:06.everything, they can control it but only to a point. I definitely worry
:03:07. > :03:11.about China, a hard landing in China. We're having a pretty sharp
:03:12. > :03:18.landing already and I worry about China becoming more of a problem.
:03:19. > :03:21.We've taken it for granted that whatever Europe's doing, Japan's
:03:22. > :03:24.doing, at least China is moving along and there isn't really a
:03:25. > :03:29.substitute for China. I think India may come along some day, it's doing
:03:30. > :03:32.better but it's fallen so far behind in size that it's not going to
:03:33. > :03:37.compensate. That's definitely the area of the world I worry most
:03:38. > :03:42.about. What could mitigate the risk of a Chinese hard landing, what
:03:43. > :03:46.could China do and what could the rest of the world do? That's a
:03:47. > :03:54.really tough question! Ideally you would like to regenerate growth and
:03:55. > :03:57.be more on your feet when this happens so that when China starts
:03:58. > :04:00.slowing down, Europe's doing better, the US is already doing better,
:04:01. > :04:04.maybe some emerging markets doing better. You would like the rest of
:04:05. > :04:09.the world not to be so dependent on China. But the IMF has marked down
:04:10. > :04:13.its forecast of global growth nine years in a row, and certainly the
:04:14. > :04:18.rumour is they are about to do it again in this forecast. In the early
:04:19. > :04:22.stage it was the advanced countries, but for some time now it's been
:04:23. > :04:27.China. And there are limits to what you can do when a country that big
:04:28. > :04:29.is slowing down, and it can slow down a lot when it's growing that
:04:30. > :04:32.fast, so there are limits. Ken Rogoff, one of the world's
:04:33. > :04:37.leading economists. The world's top oil producers must
:04:38. > :04:40.take a decision to stabilise prices according to Algeria's
:04:41. > :04:41.energy minister, Members of the oil cartel OPEC
:04:42. > :04:45.are in Algiers today for an energy conference,
:04:46. > :04:47.ahead of informal talks I think it could be happening
:04:48. > :04:58.tomorrow. Not too sure but we think. This gathering is significant,
:04:59. > :05:01.because the last time members of the organisation
:05:02. > :05:03.of Petroleum Exporting Countries met in Doha in April,
:05:04. > :05:05.they failed to reach Oil prices have generally been
:05:06. > :05:17.depressed after two years of oversupply, thanks in part
:05:18. > :05:20.to deep disagreements between OPEC There are concerns that failing
:05:21. > :05:32.to agree on a production freeze Colin Smith is the director of oil
:05:33. > :05:48.and gas research at Panmure Gordon. Great to have you in, thanks for
:05:49. > :05:52.coming in at this ungodly hour. OPEC, we keep hearing about the
:05:53. > :05:56.gathering, they are having a sideline meeting of a sideline
:05:57. > :06:01.meeting we keep hearing. My point is OPEC, who are they any more? It's
:06:02. > :06:06.almost an organisation that was once mighty and powerful but has no power
:06:07. > :06:10.today. OPEC could have the power but the policy was changed in 2014 in
:06:11. > :06:16.November and there's no sign of that changing. While that stays the same
:06:17. > :06:21.and OPEC isn't active then that's a problem. Remind people, why did
:06:22. > :06:26.Saudi change the policy? They are the biggest member and they produced
:06:27. > :06:29.the most. They are a third of OPEC production and they are the most
:06:30. > :06:34.important member. They changed the policy because they could seek non-
:06:35. > :06:39.production rising rapidly and they thought they had to take a stand.
:06:40. > :06:42.I'm no expert, you are the expert, but didn't they get a bit miffed
:06:43. > :06:47.about the Americans doing fracking and producing cheap oil in the
:06:48. > :06:51.States and they wanted to price out the Americans? America was the
:06:52. > :06:56.largest piece of incremental oil supply. Choosing a lower oil price
:06:57. > :07:00.path was certainly intended or expected to put pressure on the
:07:01. > :07:05.Americans and it has. US oil production is down about 1 million
:07:06. > :07:09.barrels a day year-on-year, but one of the things causing OPEC some
:07:10. > :07:12.banks at the moment is this loss of OPEC production is slowing down and
:07:13. > :07:16.perhaps we will see an increase next year. The whole idea the market
:07:17. > :07:21.might come in to balance this year now looks like it is fading into
:07:22. > :07:26.next year, and that splitting extra pressure on the organisation,
:07:27. > :07:29.especially the weaker members. And they are suffering, Russia,
:07:30. > :07:35.Venezuela, because oil is in the price it used to be when they were
:07:36. > :07:39.living off the land on it -- there's nothing going to happen in this,
:07:40. > :07:48.they can't get to an agreement, can they? The Saudis, who took Iran...
:07:49. > :07:52.Correct me if I'm wrong, when Iran was blacklisted, the Saudis came in
:07:53. > :07:56.and they were happy to take Iran's market share, now the Saudis are
:07:57. > :08:01.saying we will cut production if Iran does. Poor old Iran, they just
:08:02. > :08:06.got back into the picture and they need to build up their economy.
:08:07. > :08:10.Saudi Arabia isn't offering to cut production. Sorry, freeze it. What
:08:11. > :08:13.we possibly got is a freeze but you're right, it's difficult to see
:08:14. > :08:17.the policy conditions have changed but the big differences are that
:08:18. > :08:22.Iran will be present at this meeting, it wasn't present at Doha
:08:23. > :08:27.so when the Saudis effectively renege on what everybody thought was
:08:28. > :08:31.going to be a reasonably common central outcome, Iran is here this
:08:32. > :08:36.time around and on top of that, you have oil prices continuing to stay
:08:37. > :08:42.very low -- consensual. We are down $10 year-on-year on average compared
:08:43. > :08:45.to last year and it looks like market rebalancing will take another
:08:46. > :08:50.year and there's more pressure in OPEC to see something done. I agree,
:08:51. > :08:53.it's very hard to see a deal coming out of this. We will wait and see
:08:54. > :08:55.but don't hold your breath. Colin, always a pleasure. Thank you, my
:08:56. > :09:02.friend. Let's talk about this, putting
:09:03. > :09:06.satellites into orbit. We know it's expensive but in India, India is
:09:07. > :09:11.doing it cheaper than any other country. Their space agency ISRO has
:09:12. > :09:15.found a way to make money by allowing followed, or in satellites
:09:16. > :09:25.to piggyback off its launch vehicles. This is going up, five
:09:26. > :09:29.other countries are piggybacking off the back, it's amazing how cheaply
:09:30. > :09:36.they can do it but this is a bit of two of a money now? Yes. I spoke to
:09:37. > :09:42.the head of India's space agency a month ago and he says they plan on
:09:43. > :09:46.having one launch every month. -- bit of a moneyspinner now. We had
:09:47. > :09:51.five foreign satellites go up today along with the main Indian
:09:52. > :09:56.satellite. But in June there were 17 foreign satellites that went up into
:09:57. > :10:00.space along with three other Indian satellite. What the space agency is
:10:01. > :10:05.saying is that at the moment they've made more than $120 million from it.
:10:06. > :10:07.They are trying to make their operations cost effective so
:10:08. > :10:11.obviously there is a national requirement to send satellites to
:10:12. > :10:16.space for Indian purposes, whether it is mapping walking indications,
:10:17. > :10:18.but they're trying to make those operations more cost-effective and
:10:19. > :10:22.that's good news for a country that's often been criticised for
:10:23. > :10:26.spending money on a space programme when it's got so many other
:10:27. > :10:31.problems. Short and sweet, I wish I had more because I've got lots of
:10:32. > :10:37.other questions. That's it for now, though. I will be back with Adnan to
:10:38. > :10:39.talk about the newspapers from around the world. Goodbye.