30/09/2016

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:00:00. > :00:00.Now for the latest financial news, with Aaron and World Business

:00:00. > :00:24.The credit boom that could cripple China.

:00:25. > :00:27.Its economy is recovering, but the cost is a $25 trillion

:00:28. > :00:31.Plus: From Brexit fears to electric dreams, we hear from the boss of car

:00:32. > :00:40.giant Nissan at the Paris Motor Show.

:00:41. > :00:56.If you are tuning in for the first time, stay where you are. It is

:00:57. > :00:59.eight minutes, and it is a bite-size snapshot of all the latest in the

:01:00. > :01:05.world of You'll Know It's Christmas and money. -- all the latest in the

:01:06. > :01:06.world of business and money. We will hear from Carlos Ghosn

:01:07. > :01:09.in just a moment. We start in China, and that huge

:01:10. > :01:12.slowdown in the world's second-largest economy that has been

:01:13. > :01:15.felt across the world, There is more evidence

:01:16. > :01:18.the economy is stabilising, thanks to massive amounts

:01:19. > :01:20.of stimulus from the government But it is not all good

:01:21. > :01:30.news, by any means. A private survey of manufacturers

:01:31. > :01:35.out in the last few hours suggests China's factories continued

:01:36. > :01:37.to recover in September, after returning to growth in August,

:01:38. > :01:41.this ahead of official data out tonight that is expected

:01:42. > :01:43.to confirm the same thing. Last week the global

:01:44. > :01:55.central banking watchdog, the Bank of International

:01:56. > :01:57.Settlements, warned China that it faces mounting risks

:01:58. > :01:59.of a financial crisis. Borrowing by companies

:02:00. > :02:10.and individuals hit $25.6 That is 250% of GDP, in other words,

:02:11. > :02:24.2.5 times the size of the whole It is something that

:02:25. > :02:31.can't be ignored. China's currency is becoming central

:02:32. > :02:33.to the global financial system. From Saturday the Chinese

:02:34. > :02:36.yuan will be included on the International Monetary Fund's

:02:37. > :02:38.list of reserve currencies, joining the US dollar, the euro,

:02:39. > :02:41.the Japanese yen and British pound. But the US treasury secretary,

:02:42. > :02:45.Jack Lew, is among those who have expressed concern about the move,

:02:46. > :02:47.saying that China still has work And remember, earlier this week

:02:48. > :03:01.the former chief economist of the IMF told us of his grave

:03:02. > :03:18.concerns about China. There is no question it is really

:03:19. > :03:23.China that is the greatest risk. China has been the engine of global

:03:24. > :03:27.growth. The US is sort of picking up but China has been really important

:03:28. > :03:31.and China is going through a big political revolution, there is no

:03:32. > :03:34.question about that. I think the economy has slowed down much more

:03:35. > :03:39.than the official figures show, and if you want to look at a part of the

:03:40. > :03:43.world that has a debt problem, look at China. They have been a credit

:03:44. > :03:47.fuelled growth, and these things don't go on forever. Everyone says

:03:48. > :03:51.China is different, the state owns everything, they can control it.

:03:52. > :03:53.Only to a point. So I definitely worry about China.

:03:54. > :03:55.Jinny Yan is chief China economist at ICBC.

:03:56. > :04:00.That is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

:04:01. > :04:08.Thank you for coming in at this ungodly hour. Chinese factories are

:04:09. > :04:11.making more stuff, it appears. They are doing better which suggests

:04:12. > :04:18.around the world we are buying more stuff from China. And importantly

:04:19. > :04:21.suggest that China's produces a more confident about the climate in

:04:22. > :04:24.China. That is the key thing. They are replenishing industry so they

:04:25. > :04:29.are purchasing more commodities, they are purchasing more in order to

:04:30. > :04:32.produce more goods. . You, so they are looking around the world and

:04:33. > :04:37.feeling more confident. What does this growth, this stabilisation, a

:04:38. > :04:42.return to better times in August so September is also proving to be

:04:43. > :04:46.decent, is that simply off the back of the stimulus that Beijing is

:04:47. > :04:52.pouring out? I am trying to work out, is it real, or is it sort of

:04:53. > :04:56.smoke and mirrors. The good news is obviously that the economy is

:04:57. > :05:00.stabilising so that doom and gloom that market really did think that

:05:01. > :05:04.was going to happen, or the hard landing, as it were, didn't really

:05:05. > :05:10.happen. We had a soft landing in China. Things are stabilising. That

:05:11. > :05:14.is the good news. The bad news is that this continual restructuring

:05:15. > :05:18.and rebalancing of the economy is starting to slow down a little bit.

:05:19. > :05:24.Omentum is not strong enough. So while momentum in new sectors are

:05:25. > :05:28.building, the old sectors and industries are still being relied

:05:29. > :05:32.upon -- momentum is not strong enough. The real estate sector has

:05:33. > :05:37.really been the driver of a lot of pick-up in activity in the recent

:05:38. > :05:42.months. And we should remind people around the world, or the

:05:43. > :05:46.uninitiated, the rebalancing of the Chinese economy is not going to

:05:47. > :05:50.happen overnight. You can't go from the world's factory floor to a more

:05:51. > :05:54.services oriented economy. It took 100 years for the United States, or

:05:55. > :05:59.something like that anyway. You mentioned good news and bad news in

:06:00. > :06:04.your last answer. The bad news, $26 trillion of debt. That is a lot of

:06:05. > :06:12.debt. Is that sustainable? That has to be serviced, as we pay off our

:06:13. > :06:16.mortgage. It is a huge amount of debt, that is not a surprise to

:06:17. > :06:21.anyone. However, not all that is bad. If it does produce growth, if

:06:22. > :06:26.it also means that growth is stabilising in China, then that is a

:06:27. > :06:30.good thing. And key in China is that a lot of that debt is actually

:06:31. > :06:34.sitting on government's balance sheets. What that means is that a

:06:35. > :06:39.lot of it is in control of the government. So they are like a

:06:40. > :06:44.guarantor, almost. That is correct. Not like a lot of advanced countries

:06:45. > :06:49.where it are sitting on that debt and maybe they will not be able to

:06:50. > :06:51.pay off that debt. In China a lot of that is actually sitting in state

:06:52. > :06:56.banks, which is ultimately controlled by the government. So at

:06:57. > :07:01.this stage it is very much sustainable. However, the bad news

:07:02. > :07:07.is that household debt is starting to grow. So coming down the line we

:07:08. > :07:12.may hit some problems. So there are a lot of challenges with that debt.

:07:13. > :07:16.The bullies in my ear are telling me to wrap it up because we only have a

:07:17. > :07:25.short programme, but it is good news that the Chinese yuan has fallen

:07:26. > :07:30.into the IMF currency basket. It is good news. They are going to beat me

:07:31. > :07:32.up as soon as the programme is over. You might be smiling, I am terrified

:07:33. > :07:34.now. Thank you for coming in. We are also continuing our coverage

:07:35. > :07:37.of the world's longest-running motor show, in Paris, which

:07:38. > :07:38.opens officially today. Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn has

:07:39. > :07:41.been taking time out from launching his latest models

:07:42. > :07:44.to speak to our correspondent Theo He started by talking

:07:45. > :07:50.about his growing concerns about Britain's departure

:07:51. > :07:52.from the European Union. The UK is of course a major

:07:53. > :08:02.manufacturing hub for Nissan. Frankly, I think what we are looking

:08:03. > :08:07.for is not to interfere into the situation which is maybe a national

:08:08. > :08:12.situation. What you want is to make sure that when you have a European

:08:13. > :08:18.plant based in the UK, where more than 80% of our products are being

:08:19. > :08:24.shipped from Sunderland to Europe, that this decision which has been

:08:25. > :08:31.taken by the people of Great Britain does not translate into a handicap

:08:32. > :08:35.for Nissan. As long as we don't have a handicap and we can continue to do

:08:36. > :08:39.business the way we were doing business before, we have absolutely

:08:40. > :08:44.no problem. Which means that what we would like is that whatever decision

:08:45. > :08:50.will be taken in terms of Brexit, that the move of goods between the

:08:51. > :08:57.UK and Europe Diaz fluid as it is today. Leaving Brexit to one side

:08:58. > :09:00.for minutes, it is clear the car industry is undergoing profound

:09:01. > :09:06.change at the moment. Where do you see headed? Well, it is going to be

:09:07. > :09:09.everything. It is going to be autonomous, it is going to be

:09:10. > :09:13.connected. You are going to have a lot of mobility services, and this

:09:14. > :09:18.is not going to be in substitution of the rest, it is going to be in

:09:19. > :09:23.addition to the rest which means the car has to be safe, the car has to

:09:24. > :09:26.be easy to drive, nice to drive. You are going to have a lot of

:09:27. > :09:29.constraints. That is why I think, and this is something that we

:09:30. > :09:33.welcome, because we are moving away from the commodity business and more

:09:34. > :09:36.into the added value hi-tech kind of product.

:09:37. > :09:39.In other news: Deutsche Bank shares slumped almost 7%,

:09:40. > :09:42.after Bloomberg reported some hedge funds had taken out cash

:09:43. > :09:44.and withdrawn positions held with its investment bank.

:09:45. > :09:47.There has been speculation that Deutsche Bank may struggle to pay

:09:48. > :09:49.a $US14 billion fine for miss-selling mortgage-backed

:09:50. > :09:53.In a statement, Deutsche Bank said it was confident the majority

:09:54. > :09:55.of its clients have a full understanding of our

:09:56. > :10:19.We will talk about Deutsche bank more when we come back to look at

:10:20. > :10:21.the newspapers. It has been described as too big to fail.

:10:22. > :10:24.Don't forget, you can get in touch with me and some

:10:25. > :10:30.Are you ready to take over? I will be back to take a look at the papers

:10:31. > :10:39.from around the world. People born in the 1980s have

:10:40. > :10:42.about half the wealth those born in the '70s had at the same age,

:10:43. > :10:46.according to a new report The Institute for Fiscal Studies

:10:47. > :10:50.survey echoes what many people in their 30s have felt anecdotally,

:10:51. > :10:54.as personal finance correspondent