:00:00. > :00:15.That's all from me. I'm going to have a break. Here is Sally.
:00:16. > :00:18.Investors look for continuity, not change, but will the new boss
:00:19. > :00:23.of India's central bank deliver today?
:00:24. > :00:28.India's cheap labour and cheap parts means it's an attractive option
:00:29. > :00:34.We have a special report from Chennai.
:00:35. > :00:41.Also in the programme, if the monster-sized trade deal
:00:42. > :00:43.between Europe and the US fails, who could benefit?
:00:44. > :00:50.We'll talk you through the winners and losers.
:00:51. > :00:56.In a few hours' time, the newly-appointed governor
:00:57. > :00:59.of the Indian Central Bank, Urjit Patel, will make his first
:01:00. > :01:03.As global growth stalls, amid fears over protectionism
:01:04. > :01:07.and financial instability, India is seen as one of the few
:01:08. > :01:09.bright spots in an otherwise gloomy picture.
:01:10. > :01:12.In 2015, the Indian economy expanded by 7.6%, and earlier this year it
:01:13. > :01:14.overtook China to become the fastest-growing major economy
:01:15. > :01:23.One of the factors behind India's development is the country's
:01:24. > :01:28.On average, India's population continues to get younger
:01:29. > :01:33.By 2050, the UN estimates that it will have a working age population
:01:34. > :01:37.That's over four times the size of the combined North
:01:38. > :01:46.India may have cured the problem of runaway inflation,
:01:47. > :01:49.but concerns still remain that India's banks have bad debts,
:01:50. > :01:51.and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reform programme
:01:52. > :01:57.With me is Fran Boait, Executive Director of the pressure
:01:58. > :02:08.Good morning. Thank you for coming in. A new man in charge of the
:02:09. > :02:13.central bank. Tell us about the differences, or will it be business
:02:14. > :02:16.as usual? Well, one of the most exciting things about today's
:02:17. > :02:21.announcement is that for the first time it is moving from a decision
:02:22. > :02:24.taken by the Governor unilaterally to actually being a committee of
:02:25. > :02:30.people, which is obviously a great step from having decision making
:02:31. > :02:35.power of monetary policy decisions in one person, to a panel. That is a
:02:36. > :02:40.positive step forward. However, looking at central banks in the UK,
:02:41. > :02:44.the Bank of England, the bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the
:02:45. > :02:47.European Central Bank, just because you have a committee doesn't
:02:48. > :02:53.necessarily mean that you get a diversity of thinking in terms of
:02:54. > :02:57.monetary policy. I think there is an important point which is that,
:02:58. > :03:01.globally, central banking faces kind of an intellectual crisis, and
:03:02. > :03:07.monitor a policy isn't working with low interest rates. -- monastery
:03:08. > :03:11.policy. As you say, we have all looked at central banks in recent
:03:12. > :03:15.years to rescue economies, and to some degree they have, but some
:03:16. > :03:19.would argue they have not. In the United States, for example, there
:03:20. > :03:27.was a humongous Hunter Tootoo easing programme for a tremendous period of
:03:28. > :03:30.time. Some would argue that has put the US into the place where they are
:03:31. > :03:34.now, where they can put interest rates up and they are growing the
:03:35. > :03:42.economy. But you have a different view on that? I would not argue that
:03:43. > :03:46.quantitative easing was not necessary during the crisis years
:03:47. > :03:50.ago, it may have been the best tool we had in a hurry, and the crisis
:03:51. > :03:54.could have a worse without it. But it is a different position eight
:03:55. > :03:57.years on, and we have just started this quantitative easing programme
:03:58. > :04:02.in the UK, which will have negative side-effects. More and more
:04:03. > :04:05.economists are pointing at the lack of demand around the world, the very
:04:06. > :04:09.high levels of private debt, and saying that will interest rates and
:04:10. > :04:13.quantitative easing do not work, and we need to be thinking better about
:04:14. > :04:17.why the tools are on the table. In India, we were just talking through
:04:18. > :04:22.some of the statistics, they have an enormous working population in the
:04:23. > :04:25.future, which for places like Japan and other countries, that is their
:04:26. > :04:29.challenge. It is a working population, it is very productive.
:04:30. > :04:34.It was quite interesting as well is that that pop relation will have
:04:35. > :04:37.more disposable income in India, which is quite exciting. The
:04:38. > :04:41.standard of living is expected to improve. Therefore, I guess, the
:04:42. > :04:45.central bank has challenges it needs to face in terms of how it steers
:04:46. > :04:51.the Indian economy with, hopefully, more reform from Narendra Modi's
:04:52. > :04:55.government. Definitely. India is in a very different position from the
:04:56. > :04:59.UK, Japan, Australia, et cetera. If it does not want to go down the same
:05:00. > :05:03.part of the more developed economies, the main thing is to
:05:04. > :05:07.watch its debt, and where it is going. The problems that caused the
:05:08. > :05:11.2008 crisis and the problem is that lots of other economies are pointing
:05:12. > :05:16.out, it is too much bank lending going into the finance, insurance
:05:17. > :05:22.and real estate sectors. Really, as long as the new governor keeps his
:05:23. > :05:25.eye on money going into productive economies, India should be better
:05:26. > :05:29.placed than the rest of us. We will keep watching it. Fran, thank you
:05:30. > :05:32.for coming in and sharing your thoughts. And when we hear from the
:05:33. > :05:36.central bank in India, we will probably also hear from our team in
:05:37. > :05:40.Mumbai, who are across that for us today. We will keep you up-to-date.
:05:41. > :05:43.As we mentioned, India is now overtaking China to become the
:05:44. > :05:44.fastest-growing major economy in the world.
:05:45. > :05:47.Trade has had a significant role to play in the country's development
:05:48. > :05:50.and India has evolved into a major international hub for car makers.
:05:51. > :05:53.As part of our week-long series on trade, Yogita Limaye sent this
:05:54. > :05:58.report from near the southern Indian city of Chennai.
:05:59. > :06:06.This woman lives with her mother in a small town near Chennai. She grew
:06:07. > :06:12.up in a village and her father was a farmer. After he died, it was up to
:06:13. > :06:17.her to put food on the table. By night, she helps out in the kitchen.
:06:18. > :06:23.But by day, she is a technician at a car factory. She leads a small team
:06:24. > :06:28.here, and cannot imagine a life without this job. TRANSLATION: I
:06:29. > :06:33.would have had to work on a farm, and we would have had just enough
:06:34. > :06:37.money for our day-to-day lives. I first started this job, because we
:06:38. > :06:40.were poor, nobody gave us any respect. Now people say, she is
:06:41. > :06:45.working a big company and making money. In fact, lots of people ask
:06:46. > :06:50.me for jobs for their children to. Thousands of people are employed at
:06:51. > :06:57.this plant. Each salary earned helps keep a home running. Hundreds of
:06:58. > :07:04.cars are made here every day. They are sold across India, and nearly
:07:05. > :07:08.half of them are exported. This car is being loaded onto a truck, from
:07:09. > :07:13.where it will be taken to be Chennai port on India's eastern coast to be
:07:14. > :07:17.sold overseas. Cars that are made here I sent to more than 100
:07:18. > :07:22.countries, and the Western world is a big market. Lots of jobs in the
:07:23. > :07:25.factory depend on exports. Like this car maker, several other foreign
:07:26. > :07:31.brands have set up shop in Chennai. There are challengers. Inadequate
:07:32. > :07:37.infrastructure, and India's famed bureaucracy. But there are big
:07:38. > :07:42.advantages to. India is a cost competitive country. That means
:07:43. > :07:45.labour is relatively cheap compared to other countries, and it also
:07:46. > :07:50.means we can get parts relatively cheaply. In other words, we can make
:07:51. > :07:53.cars here with a total delivered cost of the vehicles being more
:07:54. > :08:00.competitive than, perhaps, Western Europe or North America or Japan. If
:08:01. > :08:06.more factories open in India, and it sells more to the world, the faster
:08:07. > :08:11.it economy will grow. For many of these workers, it could be a chance
:08:12. > :08:13.to grow as well, from being makers of cars to perhaps someday be in
:08:14. > :08:18.buyers. -- being buyers. Over in New York, policymakers
:08:19. > :08:22.from the US and EU are in talks over the Transatlantic Trade
:08:23. > :08:24.and Investment Partnership. The landmark TTIP agreement aims
:08:25. > :08:27.to provide a boost to economic growth by reducing trade barriers,
:08:28. > :08:30.but there are fears it may be delayed as opposition mounts on both
:08:31. > :08:33.sides of the Atlantic. Let's cross over to
:08:34. > :08:52.Rico Hizon in Singapore. Good morning. All good afternoon, as
:08:53. > :08:57.the case might be. Tell us more? Well, you know what, the view of
:08:58. > :09:05.some experts is that if the TTIP does not materialise, Asia will be
:09:06. > :09:08.the clear winner. It does if it is signed, Asian analysts believe many
:09:09. > :09:11.companies you may have to switch their production processes and
:09:12. > :09:15.create their products differently to accommodate TTIP's standards when
:09:16. > :09:22.exporting to the US and the European Union. And if Asian domestic
:09:23. > :09:27.standards and regulations do not match, Asian companies would be
:09:28. > :09:30.forced to create two sets of products, which would result in
:09:31. > :09:34.higher production costs. Earlier, I spoke with Debra elms, an Asian
:09:35. > :09:39.reduction expert. She said a failed outcome would benefit the region,
:09:40. > :09:42.especially China. If the TTIP agreement between the US and the
:09:43. > :09:46.European Union collapses, I think the Europeans will rapidly turned
:09:47. > :09:49.their attention to Asia. They are already negotiating a number of
:09:50. > :09:52.agreements, and I think they will speed up their bilateral investment
:09:53. > :09:57.treaties aux with China, and they will speed up a lot of negotiations
:09:58. > :10:02.that they have here in Asia. Deborah also stressed that the TTIP will not
:10:03. > :10:04.pass will be signed before the US presidential elections because of
:10:05. > :10:11.wrecks it and major antitrade sentiment in the US. -- because of
:10:12. > :10:18.Brexit. Thank you. At is all for me from now.
:10:19. > :10:21.A flagship government programme to support and supervise offenders
:10:22. > :10:24.leaving jail after serving prison terms of less than 12 months has
:10:25. > :10:28.been severely criticised by the Chief Inspectors of Probation
:10:29. > :10:32.In a joint report, the inspectors said the scheme, known