:00:15. > :00:17.A record number of UK oil and gas companies went bust in 2016
:00:18. > :00:24.but could this be the year the price of the black stuff bounces back?
:00:25. > :00:30.Where should you put your money this year?
:00:31. > :00:33.And will economists or fortune tellers have the upper
:00:34. > :00:47.Also in the programme, live in Singapore to hear how
:00:48. > :00:50.the city state's economy is faring and you may be surprised.
:00:51. > :00:56.The number of UK oil and gas companies going bust has reached
:00:57. > :00:59.an all-time high following the slump in prices of crude.
:01:00. > :01:03.That's according to accountancy firm Moore Stephens who say a total of 16
:01:04. > :01:05.businesses became insolvent last year, an eight fold
:01:06. > :01:16.Despite the recent increase in the price of the black stuff,
:01:17. > :01:19.at just under $60 a barrel it's still just over half
:01:20. > :01:25.That price point has hit the industry hard and the New Year
:01:26. > :01:28.marked the start of the first global pact to cut oil production
:01:29. > :01:34.From January 1, members of Opec along with other oil-producing
:01:35. > :01:38.countries slashed crude output by nearly 1.8 million barrels a day.
:01:39. > :01:41.So could this be a year of recovery for the industry?
:01:42. > :01:52.With me now is Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Analyst, Energy Aspects.
:01:53. > :02:00.Happy New Year to you. It is good to see you. What will we see this year,
:02:01. > :02:04.do you think? We mentioned that OPEC and non- OPEC members are supposedly
:02:05. > :02:09.following through on their promises are what impact will that have?
:02:10. > :02:12.Prices should climb back gradually. It will be slow because there is
:02:13. > :02:19.still a lot of infantry but the global agreement should see...
:02:20. > :02:23.Compliance will be sketchy but about one million barrels a day will be
:02:24. > :02:29.taken off the market so that should help run the stores down. When you
:02:30. > :02:33.talk about compliance, I know that OPEC were at pains to say they will
:02:34. > :02:36.believe that and be sure that their members follow through on their
:02:37. > :02:41.commitment, as it were. Can we expect more this time? They are
:02:42. > :02:47.planning to have a meeting to assess how it is going. The core countries,
:02:48. > :02:53.the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, they have always been compliant. I do not
:02:54. > :03:00.expect any form of cheating from them. Iraq, I think, will be tricky
:03:01. > :03:06.because they need the money to fight Isis and I do not expect any
:03:07. > :03:10.compliance from them. The rest, what works in favour of OPEC, is because
:03:11. > :03:14.of years of underinvestment, decline rates accelerating so by default
:03:15. > :03:19.they will be complying. This time last year we were looking at oil
:03:20. > :03:22.around $40 a barrel and there was a massive fall early on in 2016
:03:23. > :03:28.because of what was going on in China. As we have mentioned, many
:03:29. > :03:33.companies going bust, the smaller energy companies. Will we see more
:03:34. > :03:39.of that this year? I think the worst is behind us. In terms of companies
:03:40. > :03:42.struggling. That does not mean they will turn into profits overnight
:03:43. > :03:47.because again we do not expect oil prices to go much beyond 60 or $65
:03:48. > :03:51.in the first half of the year. Perhaps in the back end of the year
:03:52. > :03:55.but it will take a while. I think companies have cut costs but we are
:03:56. > :04:02.seeing a couple of years of severe cuts and the effects of that is that
:04:03. > :04:06.it will come through in prices. And what will Trump administration mean,
:04:07. > :04:11.do you think? It is quite difficult to assess his impact, isn't it, in
:04:12. > :04:17.terms of the energy industry in the US, for example. It is difficult. He
:04:18. > :04:21.is pro- oil and gas drilling but a lot of regulation is that the state
:04:22. > :04:24.level rather than the federal level. Can he make a big difference? His
:04:25. > :04:28.foreign policy will be the interesting one to watch out for and
:04:29. > :04:32.could have an effect on global demand. On the flip side he could
:04:33. > :04:38.tear up the Iran nuclear deal which could be positive for oil prices. A
:04:39. > :04:44.lot of uncertainty there. Lovely to see you and we will see you again
:04:45. > :04:49.soon. We will make sure she keeps us across how well is doing this year.
:04:50. > :04:52.that sounds pretty impressive doesn't it!
:04:53. > :04:55.Well that is how Singapore's economy performed in the fourth quarter
:04:56. > :04:57.of 2016 and that is much better than expected.
:04:58. > :05:02.Sharanjit Leyl joins me now from Singapore with the latest.
:05:03. > :05:12.Sharanjit, you have shopped like never before!
:05:13. > :05:18.Now it is not my shopping habits, especially as I did most of my
:05:19. > :05:23.shopping overseas in the last two weeks or so. Happy New Year and good
:05:24. > :05:28.news for this city, Singapore. A wet day behind me as you can see but it
:05:29. > :05:32.is one of the most export dependent nations in Asia and its economy grew
:05:33. > :05:37.at its fastest pace in over three years last quarter. That seemed to
:05:38. > :05:41.be a very good gauge of the global economy. But there is not what
:05:42. > :05:45.another worrying side which I will mention that the headline numbers
:05:46. > :05:53.first, they showed that manufacturing, services were to be
:05:54. > :05:57.accredited. They grew, leading to GDP rebounding that 9.1% you
:05:58. > :06:00.mentioned in the three months to December. Bear in mind this is
:06:01. > :06:05.rising from a low base from the previous quarter when it declined
:06:06. > :06:12.where it was 1.9%. But, as I said, it is not all good news. The economy
:06:13. > :06:19.expanding at its lowest -- slowest pace since 2009. Of course, we know
:06:20. > :06:23.that global growth is coming under pressure. The US is threatening to
:06:24. > :06:27.turn protectionist under Donald Trump and the outlook remains a
:06:28. > :06:31.fairly murky. The Prime Minister himself has said in his New Year
:06:32. > :06:36.message that overall Singapore is not doing that badly, considering
:06:37. > :06:40.the global economic uncertainty. He did maintain that the labour market
:06:41. > :06:47.has eased unemployment remained low and the city is still creating jobs.
:06:48. > :06:51.A warning this year that anti- globalisation antitrade sentiment
:06:52. > :06:56.could dampen already very weak global trade conditions. Having said
:06:57. > :06:59.that, however, the two factors contributed to the growth this time
:07:00. > :07:05.around, the service industry which is about two thirds of the economy.
:07:06. > :07:11.They rose 94% after the previous three months. Manufacturing jumping
:07:12. > :07:17.an annualised 14.6%. For the moment these are fairly enviable numbers.
:07:18. > :07:21.Thank you very much good to see you. One of the most used words of the
:07:22. > :07:23.year in 2016 was surreal. We had the British vote to leave
:07:24. > :07:26.the European Union and Donald Trump won the White House
:07:27. > :07:28.against all odds. We hear what a longtime economist
:07:29. > :07:40.and a traditional fortune-teller It is that time of year when many
:07:41. > :07:48.Asians head to the temples to pray for good luck and figure out what is
:07:49. > :07:50.in the year ahead. Neither financial forecasters nor fortune tellers
:07:51. > :07:55.accurately predicted what happened in 2016. So if everyone is getting,
:07:56. > :08:00.who is to say what will happen in 2017. This area is filled with
:08:01. > :08:09.fortune tellers and numerology is and I am here to meet one of them.
:08:10. > :08:13.Master Alex So. As well as an economist at a private bank to find
:08:14. > :08:18.out. So, the US and China. What sort of relationship will they have in
:08:19. > :08:21.2017? It will be interesting to say the least. The two largest economies
:08:22. > :08:28.in the world. You are looking, you know, China who is sending in terms
:08:29. > :08:34.of playing a larger role in global politics in global trade so how it
:08:35. > :08:39.will play out really will depend on how Mr Trump is going to deal with
:08:40. > :08:43.some of his contentious campaign pledges, especially targeted towards
:08:44. > :08:48.China. Next year as the fire rooster. From the word fire we will
:08:49. > :08:54.have a lot of problem going on and you will find that there will be a
:08:55. > :09:00.lot of problems. It will be a hiccup between the US and China so I think
:09:01. > :09:07.Donald Trump has two try to make it work. How about growth? What will
:09:08. > :09:11.that be next year? The driver of growth next year will be the
:09:12. > :09:16.recovery in consumer demand on the back of a recovery in jobs. That
:09:17. > :09:21.could translate into investment recovery, perhaps of a later leg
:09:22. > :09:27.towards the end of the year. 20141516. Next year is considered
:09:28. > :09:36.the last year of a five-year change. So, basically, on the first of you
:09:37. > :09:42.will see something. What is the big surprise of 2017? What we need to be
:09:43. > :09:46.mindful of is coming from popular push back of antiestablishment
:09:47. > :09:52.itself. Rooster is never a good year. It is a year that has a lot of
:09:53. > :09:58.trouble between family, between companies even between couples. That
:09:59. > :10:02.does not bode particularly well for any of us. I think it is time for me
:10:03. > :10:11.to get my fortune taken for 2017. Take Master Alex. She is a brave
:10:12. > :10:16.woman. That is all from us. We will see you again soon.