:00:00. > :00:19.The EU will set out its stall on Brexit later but Britain says
:00:20. > :00:23.trade talks must get under way at the same time.
:00:24. > :00:29.Why the price of butter is soaring on US markets.
:00:30. > :00:58.If you are in Britain it is nice and early, stay where you are and give
:00:59. > :01:02.me eight minutes, nine minutes they just told me, and I will give you an
:01:03. > :01:06.exciting snapshot of the exciting world of business and money.
:01:07. > :01:08.We start in Malta, where later this morning EU
:01:09. > :01:10.Council President Donald Tusk will present Europe's guidelines
:01:11. > :01:15.The key question for Britain - can it negotiate a future trade deal
:01:16. > :01:20.Or, as France is insisting, must it wait until
:01:21. > :01:26.Two years is already seen as tight to do such a complex trade deal.
:01:27. > :01:29.So what happens if one can't be done in time?
:01:30. > :01:32.For a start, these: Tariffs are customs taxes slapped
:01:33. > :01:46.They range from around 1.5% on things like toys and watches,
:01:47. > :01:50.If the UK leaves the EU single market without a deal,
:01:51. > :01:52.it would be subject to those tariffs under
:01:53. > :01:58.According to the think tank, Civitas, that would see British
:01:59. > :02:03.exports to the EU hit by tariffs worth $6.5 billion.
:02:04. > :02:11.That would make them more expensive and less attractive.
:02:12. > :02:17.Civitas says Europe's tariff bill would be well over double that,
:02:18. > :02:20.$16 billion, a lot of it landing on Germany and its carmakers.
:02:21. > :02:25.A huge incentive then on both sides to do a deal as fast as possible.
:02:26. > :02:27.Then there's the potential chaos caused by all those extra customs
:02:28. > :02:34.checks at ports and airports, especially in the south of England.
:02:35. > :02:41.For Britain, there's another specific worry.
:02:42. > :02:45.It also needs to secure access to the EU for its huge financial
:02:46. > :02:51.If it fails, 70,000 jobs in the City of London could be at risk.
:02:52. > :02:56.Within five to ten years, Britain's total trade could slump
:02:57. > :03:01.by 30% if there's no trade deal with the EU.
:03:02. > :03:04.That's according to a recent study by the National Institute
:03:05. > :03:16.It argues deals with the likes of the US and Australia just
:03:17. > :03:19.wouldn't make up for the loss of the EU single market.
:03:20. > :03:25.David Campbell Bannerman is a conservative member
:03:26. > :03:28.of the European Parliament representing the east of England.
:03:29. > :03:30.He is a former deputy leader of the UK Independence Party,
:03:31. > :03:33.which of course campaigned for Brexit, and he co-chairs
:03:34. > :03:35.the Eurosceptic pressure group Conservatives for Britain.
:03:36. > :03:40.Great to have you with me this morning on this programme, David.
:03:41. > :03:44.Let me start with this, no matter what side of defence people sit on,
:03:45. > :03:50.I think we all agree a deal has to be done. Is it realistic, two years,
:03:51. > :03:54.to get a deal? I think we can. I work on trade deals all the time on
:03:55. > :03:59.the trade committee. We have just done Canada. That has taken seven
:04:00. > :04:04.years, three years of negotiations. We don't have any tariffs to
:04:05. > :04:08.negotiate, not 1600 Paris as Canada did, we don't have any quotas and
:04:09. > :04:14.all other laws are a equivalent, so we start in a very different
:04:15. > :04:18.position from any trade deal under WTO rules than the US -- 1600
:04:19. > :04:22.tariffs. Picking up on that, talking about deals around the world, the
:04:23. > :04:26.nationalistic or economic and social research, you know, the point about
:04:27. > :04:30.Britain not making up for the loss of trade with the EU with the likes
:04:31. > :04:36.of the US and Australia... Go on. They are EU funded, that body, they
:04:37. > :04:39.are a disgrace in the referendum, carrying on Project Fear. It is
:04:40. > :04:43.nonsense. We are the largest single customer of the rest of the EU.
:04:44. > :04:47.Let's not forget that. They want access to the fifth-largest
:04:48. > :04:52.continent in the world, that is asked, the UK, they want access to
:04:53. > :04:57.the city of London. Let's do a good deal like Canada, super Canada what
:04:58. > :05:01.I argue for, and the EU has done trade deals in most countries in the
:05:02. > :05:07.world. And the ones it has done deals with it is doing so now. Yes,
:05:08. > :05:11.no, absolutely, I am an Aussie, so let's do big deals with Australia
:05:12. > :05:16.and New Zealand, go back to that relationship. Direct me if I am
:05:17. > :05:22.wrong, you are in Norwich, big farming community. Is their concern
:05:23. > :05:26.about the whole immigration FAQ? Farming needs workers and typically
:05:27. > :05:30.a lot are migrant workers. Yes, I think we should go back to the
:05:31. > :05:34.temporary workers scheme, agriculture workers scheme, started
:05:35. > :05:39.in 1947, way before the EU was created. So we have been there
:05:40. > :05:43.before. We need agricultural workers in the east of England, yes. That
:05:44. > :05:50.will continue. Under a new visa regime. I think the point is, even
:05:51. > :05:54.if we have the worst case scenario, which is WTO rules, you touched on
:05:55. > :05:59.that, well, six out of ten of the largest trading partners of the EU
:06:00. > :06:05.use those rules, including the US, Japan, China. We import 300 Willian
:06:06. > :06:08.dollars worth of Chinese goods -- $300 billion worth of Chinese goods
:06:09. > :06:13.without a formal trade agreement. Can I ask briefly before we wrap up,
:06:14. > :06:17.I am curious on your point, I was travelling the last three weeks,
:06:18. > :06:22.this is my week back, people asking about Brexit, and I am like, yes, a
:06:23. > :06:26.big issue, but I am like, you know what, watch what happens in the rest
:06:27. > :06:31.of Europe, keep your eye on that, not necessarily just tax it. France
:06:32. > :06:38.is only, what, three weeks away from an election? I mean, that could
:06:39. > :06:42.overtake Brexit, couldn't it? Well, that is true, I mean, Marine Le Pen
:06:43. > :06:46.is in a strong position. She is likely to get to the second round.
:06:47. > :06:49.We'll have to see what happens, whether she is beaten in the second
:06:50. > :06:54.round stage, which is probably likely. As we saw with President
:06:55. > :06:59.Trump and with Brexit, surprises can happen. Brexit's case, thank
:07:00. > :07:04.goodness they did it. We appreciate your time. Thank you very much.
:07:05. > :07:06.To Asia now, where there's more evidence China's economy
:07:07. > :07:14.Activity in the country's factories has increased at its fastest pace
:07:15. > :07:18.There's also been string growth in services and construction.
:07:19. > :07:23.Rico Hizon has been looking at the numbers for us in Singapore.
:07:24. > :07:31.Hey, Rico, I have missed you! Welcome back from your holiday.
:07:32. > :07:36.Well, I was visiting family. It wasn't really a holiday, Rico. Hey,
:07:37. > :07:42.listen, my friend. China, Beijing and the administration, the powers
:07:43. > :07:48.to be, have for the last several years tried to shift the economy
:07:49. > :07:52.away from making staff to being more services driven. At the moment the
:07:53. > :07:56.factories are making a lot of stuff. That is right. It looks like it is
:07:57. > :08:01.coming from both manufacturing and from services. That is why things
:08:02. > :08:06.may be looking up, Aaron, for the Chinese economy. This is another
:08:07. > :08:09.fresh sign that it is picking up steam, factory activity picking up
:08:10. > :08:15.yet again last month to its highest level in nearly 60 months, Aaron,
:08:16. > :08:25.with the official PMI index climbing 51.8 from 51.6 - a number of bad 50
:08:26. > :08:29.is an indicator of expansion and it is the strongest level since April
:08:30. > :08:34.2012 with a report revealing production orders expanded in the
:08:35. > :08:38.key manufacturing industry. As for the official nonmanufacturing
:08:39. > :08:43.Purchasing Managers' Index, Aaron, it rebounded as well, indicating
:08:44. > :08:46.strength in the services sector. Growth in the services industry is
:08:47. > :08:50.accelerating at the fastest pace in nearly three years and the services
:08:51. > :08:57.sector accounts for over half of the mainland economy and for the
:08:58. > :09:01.majority of its 6-.7% growth in 2016. So, things are looking
:09:02. > :09:06.positive for the Chinese economy, hopefully. Indeed, a healthy Chinese
:09:07. > :09:10.economy is a healthy global economy. OK, Rico, love you, in the
:09:11. > :09:12.nonbiblical sense, of course. We will see you soon, have a great
:09:13. > :09:13.weekend. Stay with me, I didn't make a
:09:14. > :09:21.mistake. We are in the US
:09:22. > :09:24.where there's a new meaning The price of butter
:09:25. > :09:27.is at an all time high - butter futures on the Chicago
:09:28. > :09:29.Mercantile Exchange have jumped 14% So what's behind all
:09:30. > :09:41.this spread betting? Jonathan White and his dog Lorraine
:09:42. > :09:47.by his side is off to meet his co-workers. That is stellar right
:09:48. > :09:53.there. Oh, and that is Lousi. The cows here are all 100% grass fed.
:09:54. > :09:58.The dairy is used primarily to make cheese but also butter. Since I got
:09:59. > :10:06.into the butter business in 1983, but has had a huge - I wouldn't even
:10:07. > :10:12.call it a comeuppance, it is a calm - backance and it is gratifying to
:10:13. > :10:16.see. The demand is set to skyrocket this year as more people want to eat
:10:17. > :10:20.clean, less processed food and it means the price of butter will go
:10:21. > :10:25.up, which is great news for dairy farmers like this one, but it is not
:10:26. > :10:33.a win for everyone. So there is as much butter as this... This pastry
:10:34. > :10:37.Seth is making his version of a lemon tart -- chef. Creamy and
:10:38. > :10:44.smooth like shaving foam. This shop online users at 635 kilograms of
:10:45. > :10:49.butter per week -- alone. The bakery will use a lot more butter than any
:10:50. > :10:53.restaurant. A bakery will use so much butter for all the bread, all
:10:54. > :10:59.of the dough, all of the croissants and we can sell large volumes, so it
:11:00. > :11:03.is something to look at. Making these rich pastries is getting
:11:04. > :11:10.costly. The price of butter is 10% higher than one year ago. That is
:11:11. > :11:15.because America's new taste for butter has caught the dairy industry
:11:16. > :11:20.by surprise. And these hard workers have yet to catch up with the
:11:21. > :11:25.demand. But maybe a pricey commodity these days but the results are just
:11:26. > :11:35.delicious -- butter. Butter on everything. It is good for
:11:36. > :11:37.you. Follow me on Twitter, I will be back with Alpa to look at the papers
:11:38. > :11:44.from around the world. Bye bye. The Head of NHS England says waiting
:11:45. > :11:49.times will be longer for routine operations as a "trade off"
:11:50. > :11:52.for improvements in A performance and better
:11:53. > :11:54.treatment in other areas. Simons Stevens is to unveil
:11:55. > :11:58.a new strategy for the NHS later.