:00:17. > :00:21.France prepares for the closest election in living memory,
:00:22. > :00:27.posing major risks for the Euro and the EU itself.
:00:28. > :00:32.Plus, riding the economic cycle - the IMF says global growth
:00:33. > :00:34.is finally moving up a gear, and the boss
:00:35. > :00:46.We have a special report from Milwaukee in America's Midwest.
:00:47. > :01:04.Give me eight minutes and I will try, I will try, nine, nine minutes
:01:05. > :01:06.they are telling me by the time I finished this, it will be eight!
:01:07. > :01:09.Also coming up - electric cars are dominating the Shanghai Auto
:01:10. > :01:12.We are going to plug in for the latest from
:01:13. > :01:18.we start in France, where the shootings in Paris have
:01:19. > :01:21.interrupted final campaigning in what was already being called
:01:22. > :01:24.the most unpredictable presidential election in living memory.
:01:25. > :01:27.Centrist favourite Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen look
:01:28. > :01:35.likely to go through after Sunday's vote to a run-off on May 7.
:01:36. > :01:37.But they are closely followed by conservative
:01:38. > :01:45.Francois Fillon and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon,
:01:46. > :01:49.Socialist Benoit Hamon, though, is being given little chance
:01:50. > :01:54.Security is, of course, right back at the top of the agenda.
:01:55. > :01:56.But there are other huge issues for financial markets -
:01:57. > :02:01.number one is the fate of the Euro currency.
:02:02. > :02:04.Le Pen wants to abandon it and bring back the Franc.
:02:05. > :02:07.Melenchon has also threatened to pull out, but he's softened that
:02:08. > :02:12.stance recently, now saying it should be reformed,
:02:13. > :02:15.and the independence of the European Central Bank taken
:02:16. > :02:17.away - both a big worry for financial markets.
:02:18. > :02:20.Macron and Fillon are supporters of the Euro and want to see
:02:21. > :02:28.Le Pen wants a referendum on 'Frexit'.
:02:29. > :02:34.So does Melenchon, unless Europe agrees to his reforms.
:02:35. > :02:40.Macron and Fillon want to stay in, Macron wants a stronger EU,
:02:41. > :02:43.but Fillon is more eurosceptic and wants more control
:02:44. > :02:49.The other major issue for the business world -
:02:50. > :02:54.labour reform, and France's famous 35-hour working week.
:02:55. > :02:57.Melenchon wants to cut the working week even further,
:02:58. > :03:05.At the other end of the spectrum, Fillon wants to scrap the 35-hour
:03:06. > :03:08.limit altogether and make it easier to hire and fire.
:03:09. > :03:11.Tomasz Michalski is Associate Professor of Economics at HEC
:03:12. > :03:24.He joined us, great to have you on the programme. Let me start with
:03:25. > :03:27.this, it is hard to believe in any poll nowadays, they have it awfully
:03:28. > :03:33.wrong in the last few occasions, but if Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc
:03:34. > :03:37.Melenchon managed to get through to the run-off on May seven, that
:03:38. > :03:40.scenario, and correct me if I'm wrong, could possibly be a killer
:03:41. > :03:47.scenario for the euro and for the markets. That's to some extent true,
:03:48. > :03:51.however there is also another concern, what will be the
:03:52. > :03:55.parliamentary majority, which is going to happen at the election is
:03:56. > :03:59.going to follow after the presidential one. And it may arise
:04:00. > :04:03.that you are going to have a president like Marine Le Pen or
:04:04. > :04:06.Jean-Luc Melenchon without the parliamentary majority. And the
:04:07. > :04:13.Parliament does have a say in a lot of the issues. Perhaps the
:04:14. > :04:17.Parliament, for example if Marine Le Pen wins would agree to a referendum
:04:18. > :04:22.and most French are actually in favour of staying in the eurozone so
:04:23. > :04:26.it's not, you know, may not be a total disaster, it will make things
:04:27. > :04:30.extremely difficult here. It does indeed and that makes it difficult I
:04:31. > :04:34.guess to get any reforms through because let's be frank, France needs
:04:35. > :04:39.a lot of reforms, I keep getting told! The main economic challenge
:04:40. > :04:42.for any president, debt, deficit, how much the French government
:04:43. > :04:50.spends more than it actually earns, and of course the Labour issue, the
:04:51. > :04:55.market. Exactly. Basically, the French didn't feel any kind of
:04:56. > :05:00.burden for example of the debt as of now because the rates were
:05:01. > :05:06.historically low and that is approaching and the GDP is 100% but
:05:07. > :05:11.if the rates go up as economic activity picks up and the month as
:05:12. > :05:18.it stands is back to the normal, you are going to see a big item in the
:05:19. > :05:23.budget appearing. Next, so basically there has to be something done about
:05:24. > :05:28.state expenditure, the state, the French state, hasn't turned a
:05:29. > :05:36.positive budget for 40 years and counting. And then there are also
:05:37. > :05:43.other issues like you mentioned, reforms, the market is high,
:05:44. > :05:46.unemployment, 10%, relative to our European peers, and this requires
:05:47. > :05:53.very strong reforms of them market, not only of the Labour market and
:05:54. > :05:58.improving qualifications. Perhaps difficult reforms such as improving
:05:59. > :06:02.and introducing apprenticeships in the spirit of the German model.
:06:03. > :06:06.Indeed. We will leave it there, we appreciate you coming in, lots of
:06:07. > :06:08.nailbiting between now and Sunday. Thank you for joining us. Thank you
:06:09. > :06:10.very much. We are also in the US
:06:11. > :06:13.Midwestern city of Milwaukee - The boss of the company has been
:06:14. > :06:20.telling our economics editor Kamal Ahmed why he's optimistic
:06:21. > :06:22.the global economy is, like his famous bikes,
:06:23. > :06:29.accelerating nicely. The International Monetary Fund has
:06:30. > :06:44.also moved its economic forecasts up Bitmapped at liberty to, the man who
:06:45. > :06:50.runs and rights Harley-Davidson. -- meet Matt. A all-American company
:06:51. > :06:53.that exports around the world. If things are going well for businesses
:06:54. > :06:59.like this, but the signal that the global economy is set. I asked him
:07:00. > :07:03.if the economy is indeed looking up. A lot of this is just psychology,
:07:04. > :07:08.when people feel more confident, then they are willing to make, if
:07:09. > :07:12.you will, financial risks of investing in something and putting
:07:13. > :07:17.their home, buying a motorcycle, but when they feel really uncertain,
:07:18. > :07:21.they pull back. They wait. And so the election and so forth has helped
:07:22. > :07:28.people feel more optimism. Running more smoothly at Harley-Davidson and
:07:29. > :07:32.for America, it is up and it is not alone, European growth is up, UK
:07:33. > :07:35.group is up. The official IMF forecast to make a better reading,
:07:36. > :07:38.although there have been wrong before. And for the head of the
:07:39. > :07:44.world 's leading financial organisation, there are reasons to
:07:45. > :07:52.be cheerful. We are forecasting growth in 2017 at 3.5%. In 2018, at
:07:53. > :07:59.3.6%. And that's a significant update from 2016. Which is all good
:08:00. > :08:07.news. But we need to make sure that this momentum is sustained. When you
:08:08. > :08:10.come to a company like Harley-Davidson, you are immediately
:08:11. > :08:14.struck not by the size of the factory but by the sense of
:08:15. > :08:18.optimism. Yes, some of that is down to the presidential election but a
:08:19. > :08:23.lot of it is down to the return of global economic growth. A return so
:08:24. > :08:27.marked, arguing that ten years after the financial crisis of the global
:08:28. > :08:33.economy has finally turned the corner. William Harley and Arthur
:08:34. > :08:37.Davidson found their world-famous motorbike company in a shed on this
:08:38. > :08:42.site in 1903. It's the kind of business Mr Trump likes. And like so
:08:43. > :08:51.many American firms, it is waiting to see if this better global
:08:52. > :08:58.economic news is here to stay. That wasn't bad, was it? One thing was
:08:59. > :09:00.missing, Kamal on a bike! Let's talk to him about that later.
:09:01. > :09:03.Let's go to Shanghai, China now where the annual auto show
:09:04. > :09:08.China has been the world's top car market for almost a decade and well
:09:09. > :09:10.over 1,000 new models are on display.
:09:11. > :09:12.Our correspondent Robin Brant is there.
:09:13. > :09:17.Robin, the two big themes - electric and self-driving cars?
:09:18. > :09:30.I have been told that Robert is a redhead. -- -- Rob is a revhead..
:09:31. > :09:34.This is the biggest car show in the biggest market in the world and it
:09:35. > :09:37.is just about cars you can drive away today. It is about tomorrow's
:09:38. > :09:41.cars as well and that means autonomous vehicles and electric
:09:42. > :09:44.vehicles and China is trying to become a world leader in electric
:09:45. > :09:49.and that means the technology, the batteries behind them, but also
:09:50. > :09:53.persuading drivers to buy them and then drive them and I've been
:09:54. > :09:57.talking to some chief executives of the biggest car their strategy on
:09:58. > :10:01.electric and Mathias Miller who heads up VW, the biggest carmaker in
:10:02. > :10:05.the world, help me even though they have ruled out the new concept car
:10:06. > :10:09.for electric they want to see on the streets in a couple of years time,
:10:10. > :10:12.they hope to sell 1.5 million of them by 2025, he told me he still
:10:13. > :10:16.thinks VW will be making combustion engines for another 20 years.
:10:17. > :10:24.Another thing people are talking about is autonomous vehicles. And a
:10:25. > :10:30.huge company here in China, their version of Google, it is thrown
:10:31. > :10:32.money and resources into autonomous vehicles and announced yesterday
:10:33. > :10:37.interestingly that it wants to share its technology with anyone who wants
:10:38. > :10:41.it. But there is caution, they think they can have a car on the streets,
:10:42. > :10:45.and a common as vehicle, in three years but one senior adviser at VW
:10:46. > :10:48.said to me they are not quite optimistic about safety, they have
:10:49. > :10:50.concerns about having autonomous vehicles on the streets in any other
:10:51. > :10:57.conditions than clear daylight. Any favourites you've seen? Anything
:10:58. > :11:03.you will stump up while you're there? He may have trouble hearing
:11:04. > :11:07.me. On my salary, maybe I can stretch to a Chinese car but maybe
:11:08. > :11:13.not this one behind me! Thank you, talk to you soon. Making headlines -
:11:14. > :11:15.President Trump has launched a federal investigation
:11:16. > :11:19.into whether dependence on cheap foreign steel is a threat to the US
:11:20. > :11:20.defence industry and national security.
:11:21. > :11:23.He signed the order at a White House ceremony surrounded
:11:24. > :11:27.The rarely used Trade Expansion Act of 1962 raises the possibility
:11:28. > :11:34.of tariffs on China and other steel exporters.
:11:35. > :11:38.A fall in sales of Barbie dolls has added to a slump at the world's
:11:39. > :11:46.It reported sales down more than 15% in the first three months
:11:47. > :11:49.of the year - the biggest drop in seven years and much
:11:50. > :11:52.Mattel is still struggling with piles of leftover stock
:11:53. > :12:08.after a disappointing holiday season.
:12:09. > :12:13.I thought Barbie dolls were popular. I guess when they brought out the
:12:14. > :12:16.new models, different colours, except wrote...
:12:17. > :12:19.Don't forget, you can get in touch with me and some
:12:20. > :12:24.I will be back with Christer have a look at the papers from around the
:12:25. > :12:32.world. -- Chris too. Don't adjust your set, everything is
:12:33. > :12:35.normal at the BBC. The average cyber criminal
:12:36. > :12:40.investigated by the National Crime