:00:00. > :00:19.Now it's time for World Business Report.
:00:20. > :00:24.Yep, the big boss of one of the world's largest banks,
:00:25. > :00:27.Goldman Sachs, tells the BBC about his preparations for a world
:00:28. > :00:34.after Brexit - that's coming up in an exclusive interview.
:00:35. > :00:48.It's a biggie for Europe, with one of them being knocked out.
:00:49. > :00:51.Yep, it's the last day of campaigning before France
:00:52. > :00:56.So we're going to look at how each one's plans to run
:00:57. > :01:11.If you don't like waving hands and high energy, I suggest you switch
:01:12. > :01:12.the channel right now. The rest of you who are staying with us, thank
:01:13. > :01:15.you. The chief Executive
:01:16. > :01:17.of Goldman Sachs has warned London "will stall"
:01:18. > :01:20.because of the risks Lloyd Blankfein told the BBC
:01:21. > :01:27.that the company was developing contingency plans to move some
:01:28. > :01:30.of its 6,500 employees out of the capital depending
:01:31. > :01:33.on the outcome of the negotiations. Mr Blankfein was talking exclusively
:01:34. > :01:47.to our economics editor, Lots of people he lacked to have
:01:48. > :01:54.their European business concentrated in a single place. -- elect to have.
:01:55. > :01:57.The UK is the easiest place to concentrate, with the culture and
:01:58. > :02:02.the language and the special relationship. We are an example of
:02:03. > :02:06.that. If you cannot benefit from access to the European Union from
:02:07. > :02:10.the UK, and nobody knows what those rules and those determinations would
:02:11. > :02:13.be, the risk is that there will be some adjustment that would cause
:02:14. > :02:18.some people to have a smaller footprint in the UK. Is written
:02:19. > :02:22.outside the single market? The Prime Minister has made clear she wants to
:02:23. > :02:28.be less attractive for a firm like yours. I would say that it is our
:02:29. > :02:35.hope that we would be able to conduct our business as close as we
:02:36. > :02:39.can to the way we conducted today. We have to be not in the forecasting
:02:40. > :02:43.business about this, we have to be in the contingency plan business,
:02:44. > :02:50.and that is the rub. Because without knowing how things will turn out, we
:02:51. > :02:53.have to plan for a number of contingencies and our hope is that
:02:54. > :02:58.we do not have to implement anything until we know what it is that we
:02:59. > :03:03.have to implement. Putt if there is no period of time to implement
:03:04. > :03:06.whatever changes are brought about in negotiation, we may have to do
:03:07. > :03:10.things prematurely and we may have to delay range of things as a
:03:11. > :03:14.precaution. Right now we are trying to avoid that. Which other cities
:03:15. > :03:19.are you looking at? We are not focused on any. We are already
:03:20. > :03:22.resident right now, we have a presence in Dublin, Frankfurt,
:03:23. > :03:27.France... So you need a clear signal on implementation period after... We
:03:28. > :03:31.would like that. And we realise that this process is not being done to
:03:32. > :03:36.our comfort or convenience. You have 7000 people in London. Surely that
:03:37. > :03:42.will still be, by far, your biggest office in Europe in ten years.
:03:43. > :03:45.Strange things happen. What I am as confident about that statement as I
:03:46. > :03:47.am about anything else, given that there are things outside our
:03:48. > :03:49.control. -- but I am. The French presidential election
:03:50. > :03:52.is entering its last days before the final round of
:03:53. > :03:54.voting at the weekend. Cadidates Marine Le Pen
:03:55. > :03:57.and Emmanuel Macron have promised One key issue throughout
:03:58. > :04:01.the campaign has been the economy. Here's a reminder of the competing
:04:02. > :04:04.visions the candidates Emmanuel Macron wants spending cuts
:04:05. > :04:10.of 60 billion euros, that's $66 billion, over five years
:04:11. > :04:14.- with a 50 billion euro stimulus He also wants to lower taxes
:04:15. > :04:18.and extend the welfare state. He says he could still keep France's
:04:19. > :04:22.deficit below the EU's limit of 3% of gross domestic product
:04:23. > :04:25.and would cut 50,000 state jobs. Marine Le Pen has been very
:04:26. > :04:27.critical of austerity. She has pledged to cut taxes
:04:28. > :04:32.for households and increase welfare She intends to pay for these
:04:33. > :04:43.measures with savings by withdrawing from the euro and
:04:44. > :04:52.reducing immigration. She says that once France is out
:04:53. > :04:55.of the euro she would get its central bank to print more money
:04:56. > :05:01.to bring down the country's debt. The French unemployment rate
:05:02. > :05:07.is stubbornly high at 10%. Emmanuel Macron wants to invest
:05:08. > :05:11.in training and apprenticeships, Mr Macron wants to introduce
:05:12. > :05:24.flexibility on overtime Marine Le Pen wants to maintain
:05:25. > :05:32.the 35-hour week and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60,
:05:33. > :05:44.and also make overtime tax-free. Lowering the retirement age, that
:05:45. > :05:49.would be nice. Joining us now is Tomasz Michalski,
:05:50. > :06:02.associate professor of economics Professor, good to see you. Thank
:06:03. > :06:08.you for joining us at this early in the morning. If Emmanuel Macron
:06:09. > :06:15.wins, and it seems like he is going to, will he be good for the French
:06:16. > :06:22.economy? Well, of course, there is another stage to be seen, what is
:06:23. > :06:24.going to happen during the parliamentary elections, because
:06:25. > :06:32.Macron needs a parliamentary majority. But it looks like if
:06:33. > :06:37.Macron's movement, or the Republicans, windows, and we will
:06:38. > :06:42.know in a few weeks, then he should be able to implement his vision. --
:06:43. > :06:46.win these. I think this is a continuation of long overdue reforms
:06:47. > :06:50.in a favourable environment. The last push, by Nicholas Sarkozy in
:06:51. > :06:56.2007, was stopped by the 2008 recession. It is mild supply-side
:06:57. > :07:03.economics coupled with deep structural changes. Retraining is
:07:04. > :07:11.key, to lower youth unemployment and also keep these changes to keep the
:07:12. > :07:17.economy more aligned with Germany. It is a realistic plan, it would be
:07:18. > :07:25.a great plan for France. What is your economic scenario if Marine Le
:07:26. > :07:28.Pen wins? It is again unclear, because the President needs a
:07:29. > :07:32.parliamentary majority to implement their reforms. And it is not clear
:07:33. > :07:40.that even if she wins, she is going to get a Front National majority. If
:07:41. > :07:45.that scenario were to happen, she was very unclear about the
:07:46. > :07:51.proposals, as became clear in the debates. For example, she is not
:07:52. > :07:55.clear about dropping the euro. She was in favour of dropping the euro,
:07:56. > :08:00.then in favour of keeping it, and now she is in favour of introducing
:08:01. > :08:03.a second currency that would be domestically used for domestic
:08:04. > :08:09.payments, and large corporations would still pay with the euro. I
:08:10. > :08:13.think it is still up in the air. It would basically be some kind of
:08:14. > :08:18.chaotic outcome. However, I do not think that is a reasonable scenario.
:08:19. > :08:22.No, although we do know another political campaigner who did a bit
:08:23. > :08:28.of Arc and forth and is now the leader of the free world. -- back
:08:29. > :08:33.and forth. Let me ask you this, when one of them wins, we talk about
:08:34. > :08:38.reform, and there is so much reform needed for the French economy, what
:08:39. > :08:45.is the first step? Is it the labour market? It will be, I think, a whole
:08:46. > :08:50.package. You will have to watch what happens in the first few months. It
:08:51. > :08:54.is going to be the supply-side tax reform and the labour reform, they
:08:55. > :08:58.should come hand in hand. And if they have a majority they will pass
:08:59. > :09:05.it quickly. I don't think there is going to be a large social movements
:09:06. > :09:10.of strikes and so on. Last year's strikes really hurt the French and
:09:11. > :09:14.turned the French opinion against them. It is going to be both tax
:09:15. > :09:18.reform and labour market reform that I hope will bring in more
:09:19. > :09:25.investments, coupled with low eurozone rates, which will give us a
:09:26. > :09:33.nice pomp in France and in the eurozone, and perhaps help in the
:09:34. > :09:38.longer run when the supply-side reforms are going to take place to
:09:39. > :09:43.lower the unemployment to 7% or even 6%, which is going to be a lot.
:09:44. > :09:47.Professor, sorry, we have to go. Thank you. I have to wrap it up,
:09:48. > :09:51.time is ticking. And look out, Boeing and Airbus,
:09:52. > :09:54.because the first made-in-China passenger jet is set to fly
:09:55. > :09:57.for the first time this morning. It's called the C919, and it's built
:09:58. > :10:00.by state-owned manufacturer Comac. It won't be delivered to airlines
:10:01. > :10:03.until at least 2020. It's been in the works for nearly
:10:04. > :10:07.a decade as China tries to rely less on those European
:10:08. > :10:13.and American rivals. The oil price has fallen
:10:14. > :10:15.to a five-month low as investor concerns resurface
:10:16. > :10:18.about a worldwide glut. Brent crude dropped by more than $2
:10:19. > :10:22.on Thursday to below $49 a barrel, hitting its lowest level since oil
:10:23. > :10:25.cartel Opec struck a landmark deal Analysts said investors were worried
:10:26. > :10:30.that oil nations would fail to ease supply fears at a
:10:31. > :10:37.meeting later in May. I'll be back later with James to
:10:38. > :10:39.look at papers from around the