:00:17. > :00:21.Can OPEC fire up the price of oil without fuelling its US shale
:00:22. > :00:27.India's finance minister defends his decision to scrap
:00:28. > :00:35.the country's most popular banknotes.
:00:36. > :00:38.He tells us why the days of cash-in-hand are over.
:00:39. > :00:48.Also coming up - a record close again on the S
:00:49. > :00:54.We'll be getting the latest from the region.
:00:55. > :00:59.It affects us all - and its future direction could be
:01:00. > :01:04.decided later today at a meeting of the world's top producers.
:01:05. > :01:06.We are talking about OPEC, the Organisation of the Petroleum
:01:07. > :01:09.That's the Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia,
:01:10. > :01:12.as well as others including Iraq, Iran and Nigeria.
:01:13. > :01:14.They have been joined by non-OPEC member Russia
:01:15. > :01:17.and they are expected to announce a deal later today to try
:01:18. > :01:25.In December OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to cut
:01:26. > :01:30.production by 1.8 million barrels per day -
:01:31. > :01:34.about 2% of the global total - to try and push the price up.
:01:35. > :01:37.Those cuts were for a six month period which expires soon.
:01:38. > :01:41.They are now expected to extend the cuts for another nine months
:01:42. > :01:53.Look at this graph of Brent Crude and you will see why.
:01:54. > :01:55.The price surged in December when those production
:01:56. > :02:00.But it's been volatile since then and struggling to hold
:02:01. > :02:13.Russia can cope with this level - Moscow has based its budget
:02:14. > :02:20.But the biggest OPEC producer Saudi Arabia wants $60 per barrel.
:02:21. > :02:26.Shale oil production in the US fell sharply when prices hit rock bottom
:02:27. > :02:33.Now prices are higher they are back in a big way
:02:34. > :02:38.You can see US production has surged by a million barrels a day over
:02:39. > :02:53.the past year, adding to a global oversupply of oil.
:02:54. > :03:03.Earlier, Saudi minister was confident.
:03:04. > :03:06.TRANSLATION: All the countries within OPEC, which I have talked
:03:07. > :03:08.to have agreed on a nine-month extension.
:03:09. > :03:11.Definitely there is no need to talk to all the 24 member states,
:03:12. > :03:14.however, I do not expect any objection within OPEC to be
:03:15. > :03:17.the issue, but the decision will not be finalised until OPEC meeting
:03:18. > :03:23.on May 25 when all the countries sign on the extension decision.
:03:24. > :03:30.Colin Smith is Director of oil and gas research at Panmure Gordon.
:03:31. > :03:43.Good morning. Give us your take? Are we looking at a deal today? Yes, it
:03:44. > :03:50.looks likely there will be a rollover and all nine months rather
:03:51. > :03:57.than six. Compliance from OPEC has been pretty good but US oil has been
:03:58. > :04:03.surging and that is one of the major concerns the market has. If you look
:04:04. > :04:08.at where OPEC is producing at the moment, it looks like the world is
:04:09. > :04:17.about a million barrels a day short so we should be seeing signs of that
:04:18. > :04:21.effect. But what is dependent is what US production does and what
:04:22. > :04:27.happens in Libya and Nigeria who are not subject to the cuts that applied
:04:28. > :04:36.to everyone else. In terms of the price, what impact would a
:04:37. > :04:42.nine-month roll over have? Would US production be encouraged all the
:04:43. > :04:50.more Bass I think it will. Do not think this rollover will push prices
:04:51. > :04:55.higher than we have stopped what will make a difference is as we go
:04:56. > :05:00.forward into the second half of the year, how much more volume do we get
:05:01. > :05:05.out of the US and to restart the seat even trees falling in the way
:05:06. > :05:11.that supply- demand valances suggest we should. If that is the case, but
:05:12. > :05:20.are we looking in terms of the new normal for oil? I think the new
:05:21. > :05:24.normal could be in the mid- 50s or a little bit higher. There are
:05:25. > :05:29.possibly early signs that continuous growth and productivity is beginning
:05:30. > :05:36.to roll over a little bit so that is the big question. Whether this rings
:05:37. > :05:45.so much new US production that it overwhelms the market as it did in
:05:46. > :05:53.the run-up to 2013. As and when we hear of a deal where will update
:05:54. > :05:55.you. Oil prices have been on the rise in Asia ahead of that meeting.
:05:56. > :06:01.Rico Hizonis following the markets for us in Singapore.
:06:02. > :06:10.The prices of oil in midday territory, we currently in positive
:06:11. > :06:15.territory. Reduces within and outside OPEC are expected to extend
:06:16. > :06:20.a deal cutting output and lifting the price of crude. Analysts feel US
:06:21. > :06:35.producers could spoil the party. Brent crude trading at about 55
:06:36. > :06:46.cents, above 1%. More than 50 cents, up 1% fall at their US sources.
:06:47. > :06:49.Apart from the oil markets, we are seeing movement in the
:06:50. > :06:53.foreign-exchange market, the US dollar on the defensive after some
:06:54. > :07:02.policy expectations were dumbed down. Edging up to a six-month high
:07:03. > :07:08.while the yen is moving sideways. Holding of raising interest rates
:07:09. > :07:11.until the recent economic slowdown is proven to be shot term.
:07:12. > :07:15.The White House has denied accusations that the President's
:07:16. > :07:17.budget proposal contains an "egregious" maths error.
:07:18. > :07:23.Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers pointed out the spending
:07:24. > :07:25.plan double-counts $2 trillion of extra federal revenue -
:07:26. > :07:32.which is earmarked both to cut taxes and to reduce the budge deficit.
:07:33. > :07:35.But White House budget director Mick Mulvaney told reporters:
:07:36. > :07:39.The budget unveiled on Tuesday proposes deep cuts
:07:40. > :07:46.Sports car maker Aston Martin has posted a first-quarter profit
:07:47. > :07:53.Revenues in the first three months of the year more than doubled,
:07:54. > :07:56.following strong sales of its new DB11 model launched
:07:57. > :07:59.Aston Martin was sold by Ford in 2007 to Italian
:08:00. > :08:04.The company has gone bankrupt seven times in its history.
:08:05. > :08:06.It's reported to be considering a stock market flotation
:08:07. > :08:23.In India - remember how its economy was plunged
:08:24. > :08:26.into chaos last November when the government scrapped the two
:08:27. > :08:28.most popular banknotes - the 500 and 1000 rupee notes.
:08:29. > :08:31.The controversial idea was to break the black economy
:08:32. > :08:34.by forcing people to exchange their stashes of notes for new ones
:08:35. > :08:36.at banks and bringing them into the tax system.
:08:37. > :08:38.Well according to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley,
:08:39. > :08:42.despite heavy criticism at the time the move has been a success.
:08:43. > :08:48.As he explained to the BBC's Lerato Mbele.
:08:49. > :09:02.I think it is successful from three important ways - one, there is a
:09:03. > :09:08.huge movement towards digitisation of the economy. Something which
:09:09. > :09:16.marginally existed in the past. Two, the number of people now filing tax
:09:17. > :09:22.returns has radically gone up so the anonymity which was attached to
:09:23. > :09:35.catch Karen C is over. It has been identified who owns the currency. --
:09:36. > :09:42.cash economy. You will be releasing your GDP figures next week. Will you
:09:43. > :09:48.now calibrate everything and get a sense of how diverse economic
:09:49. > :10:00.participation is, do you think it will reflect the figures? When we
:10:01. > :10:05.took the extraordinary step of the monetisation we knew that would be a
:10:06. > :10:13.squeeze as far as currency is concerned. But we were sure that the
:10:14. > :10:17.impact is only marginal. Our critics felt there would be a radical
:10:18. > :10:24.decline as far as the GDP was concerned and that it was too risky.
:10:25. > :10:30.Hopefully, that she continued to roll about 7%. I will see it in a
:10:31. > :10:39.moment for the News review. Two teenage victims of Monday's
:10:40. > :10:42.bombing had travelled to the pop concert from the island of Barra,
:10:43. > :10:48.in the Outer Hebrides. Her friend Eilidh MacLeod
:10:49. > :10:53.is still missing.