12/06/2017

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:00:21. > :00:25.So, as the UK Prime Minister fights to stay in power, experts warn

:00:26. > :00:27.prolonged political uncertainty will take its toll on sterling and the

:00:28. > :00:30.economy. Not so in France -

:00:31. > :00:32.the euro strengthens as Macron's new party en Marche takes control

:00:33. > :00:46.of French politics. This is World Business Report, where

:00:47. > :00:48.we will now focus on the business and economic implications of the

:00:49. > :00:50.elections in the UK and France. Theresa May, has formed

:00:51. > :00:58.a new government but without a majority in parliament

:00:59. > :01:01.she is relying on an alliance with Northern Ireland's

:01:02. > :01:03.largest political party, But while the DUP insist

:01:04. > :01:10.their relationship with May's team has been close since she became

:01:11. > :01:14.Prime Minister, 11 months ago, any

:01:15. > :01:25.alliance will come at a price, An economic terms, they are less

:01:26. > :01:30.developed than the Republic of Ireland or the UK. It has low levels

:01:31. > :01:33.of productivity and is heavily dependent on the state. Those

:01:34. > :01:39.sectors apart from the state that it relies on our tourism,

:01:40. > :01:43.manufacturing, and food. And they need large supplies of low skilled

:01:44. > :01:48.labour, mostly from Eastern Europe, especially Poland. And if Britain is

:01:49. > :01:52.to lead the single market, and that is the stated policy, then the DUP

:01:53. > :01:56.may ask the Conservatives for an exemption when it comes to the free

:01:57. > :02:00.flow of labour to Northern Ireland. On top of that, they will want

:02:01. > :02:06.London to pick up the $450 million a year that Brussels seems to Belfast

:02:07. > :02:12.in agricultural subsidies. And that comes on top of the $1 billion a

:02:13. > :02:17.month that London fans already to Belfast. And then there is the

:02:18. > :02:21.political bribes, or poor, as it is known as. They will want more

:02:22. > :02:24.investment in infrastructure. That means that their roads and rail

:02:25. > :02:34.projects, which might otherwise be uneconomical, will be built, and

:02:35. > :02:36.will not be shut down. Those with some of the issues that could be the

:02:37. > :02:36.agenda. With me is Simon French,

:02:37. > :02:43.chief economist at Panmure Gordon. Good morning, Simon. So much to

:02:44. > :02:48.digest and discuss. For market a really uncertain time which they

:02:49. > :02:54.observe the head. But if we look at of the other issues, business

:02:55. > :02:59.optimism has plunged over the weekend. And as higher than it was

:03:00. > :03:03.after last year's decision on leaving the European Union. Give us

:03:04. > :03:07.your take on all of us. What you have is domestic economic

:03:08. > :03:14.uncertainty put on top of Brexit economic uncertainty. It is a double

:03:15. > :03:18.whammy. I think most assumed that the conservative manifesto was go to

:03:19. > :03:22.be lamented domestically. They knew that Brexit was an uncertain outcome

:03:23. > :03:26.for at least two years, but you now have that multiplied twofold. And

:03:27. > :03:30.therein lies a lot of deep sentiment that we have seen out of business

:03:31. > :03:34.over the weekend. If you add to that some of the economic issues on top,

:03:35. > :03:38.like consumer spending, the latest figures show that it is falling in

:03:39. > :03:43.May for nearly the first time in four years. This is inflation

:03:44. > :03:51.tightens its grip. There is a lot of headwind and stir -- sterling been

:03:52. > :03:55.depressed all the time. So how is this organ to play out when Theresa

:03:56. > :04:00.May is trying to me desperately, to stay in power, and form a government

:04:01. > :04:04.that she hopes will be stable and strong, but could be far from it?

:04:05. > :04:11.Consumer spending was all ready under pleasure. You mention the

:04:12. > :04:14.weakening sterling. -- under pressure. Households have pulled

:04:15. > :04:22.back on their spending as a result. That is a difficult backdrop for

:04:23. > :04:25.politicians while they deal with Brexit and pushing through a

:04:26. > :04:28.domestic agenda when they are going to give vital votes in Parliament.

:04:29. > :04:32.And additional public spending in certain areas to buy a vote is may

:04:33. > :04:36.well be the theme of however long as Parliament goes. And that does not

:04:37. > :04:41.always generate the best economic policy-making, because you end up

:04:42. > :04:44.having to appeal to people's political instinct, rather than

:04:45. > :04:48.assessing a project on its real merits. And business leaders and

:04:49. > :04:54.market watchers have two work out what it means, a conservative

:04:55. > :04:57.government with the DUP of Northern Ireland, and what that means for

:04:58. > :05:03.economic policy, but also the Brexit negotiations. Cheesemaker. So taking

:05:04. > :05:06.a conservative economic policy foes, adding additional spending in

:05:07. > :05:11.Northern Ireland will be a fan to try and secure the votes on a deal

:05:12. > :05:19.by deal basis. They can adapt to seek cross party support. On Brexit,

:05:20. > :05:25.there is a potential here for a softer version of Brexit is at -- as

:05:26. > :05:30.a result of backbenchers wishing the gunmen to this offer. Sterling has

:05:31. > :05:36.been so softer. -- pushing the government. You may well see a rally

:05:37. > :05:39.as the market looks at this and sees a softer Brexit down the pipeline

:05:40. > :05:44.that we would have assumed under a conservative majority. Thank you so

:05:45. > :05:47.much to your analysis this morning, Simon. There will be more of that,

:05:48. > :05:51.because in the news review, will be looking at some of the newspapers

:05:52. > :05:51.and what they are discussing this morning,

:05:52. > :05:57.following Thursday's election. But let's take you across the water to

:05:58. > :05:57.France. Things could not be any more different.

:05:58. > :06:00.The new centrist party of French President Emmanuel Macron

:06:01. > :06:03.looks on course to win a landslide victory following the first

:06:04. > :06:07.Projections suggest En Marche could get as many as three-quarters

:06:08. > :06:13.The final outcome will be decided at a run-off next Sunday.

:06:14. > :06:16.Mr Macron's party was established just over a year ago and many

:06:17. > :06:26.candidates have little or no political experience.

:06:27. > :06:29.Joining us now is Tomasz Michalski, Professor of International Economics

:06:30. > :06:32.at the HEC International Business School in Paris.

:06:33. > :06:42.Good morning to you. Give us your take on this, not landslide, but

:06:43. > :06:47.this extremely strong rally behind Emmanuel Macron and his new party,

:06:48. > :06:56.and what it means for the economy in France? Well, this gives a space for

:06:57. > :07:02.long-awaited reforms, that is for sure. Along with the Republican

:07:03. > :07:07.Party, which is going to have the larger part of the seeds of the

:07:08. > :07:19.remaining seats. We are looking into a 90% pro reform majority in the

:07:20. > :07:22.Parliament. So we can, this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance, that

:07:23. > :07:27.there is could be a reform agenda pursued. And already, we know what

:07:28. > :07:32.the first battle will be. It will be reforming even slightly the labour

:07:33. > :07:36.code. Let's talk about that. That was a key plank of his election

:07:37. > :07:41.campaign, that he would be the man to deliver on that, where Francois

:07:42. > :07:55.longed and Nicolas Sarkozy had failed. -- Hollande. But will he

:07:56. > :07:59.deliver? This is to be seen. The political situation, or you would

:08:00. > :08:08.think, could not be more favourable. Yet even with such a huge majority

:08:09. > :08:15.on the cards, his go to try to push the legislation for a fast track

:08:16. > :08:21.authority that isn't to limit their discussions in the Parliament. There

:08:22. > :08:30.would be to try and sign before September, when people return back

:08:31. > :08:36.after vacation. But this is made more surprising when Jean-Luc

:08:37. > :08:40.Melenchon said let's defend the labour code. So could be a heated

:08:41. > :08:47.fall, because the opposition will not be the Parliament, they will

:08:48. > :08:52.take to the streets. We have seen that before. Thank you for joining

:08:53. > :08:56.us this morning, Tomasz. Let's now mention what is happening at Uber.

:08:57. > :09:02.It has been in the headlines are lot lately.

:09:03. > :09:05.Uber's chief executive Travis Kalanick could be forced

:09:06. > :09:08.to take a leave of absence under changes reportedly being considered

:09:09. > :09:12.A decision on whether to alter Travis Kalanick's role was set to be

:09:13. > :09:15.taken at a meeting of Uber's board on Sunday.

:09:16. > :09:17.Reports also suggest the company's Chief Business Officer is planning

:09:18. > :09:23.All this trouble at the top follows a review in February after former

:09:24. > :09:26.Uber engineer Susan Fowler made claims of sexual harassment.

:09:27. > :09:32.There has been an investigation into that sense. Having a look at the

:09:33. > :09:37.markets began, now. The pound is still lag wishing after having

:09:38. > :09:43.fallen 1.6% from Friday. It is bumping along that low level. The

:09:44. > :09:49.euro is bumping along a little bit, and that is how the markets are

:09:50. > :09:51.changing in Asia today. -- trading. Stay with us. Much more to come in

:09:52. > :10:01.just a moment.