21/07/2017

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:00:16. > :00:21.Markets have surged - but six months on -

:00:22. > :00:23.the President's yet to deliver on growth,

:00:24. > :00:28.How long will Wall Street's patience last?

:00:29. > :00:32.The European boss of Goldman Sachs tells us about his costly

:00:33. > :00:34.contingency plans- and why London will remain

:00:35. > :00:48.UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is in Japan for talks

:00:49. > :00:50.where Brexit concerns are also set to dominate.

:00:51. > :00:54.we start in the US where as of Thursday,

:00:55. > :00:58.President Donald Trump has been in office for six months.

:00:59. > :01:00.He made some big promises on the US economy -

:01:01. > :01:02.inspiring a wave of optimism among investors.

:01:03. > :01:07.But most of them are still just that - promises.

:01:08. > :01:10.And some are now questioning the reality of Trumponomics,

:01:11. > :01:13.or to use the new catchphrase, MAGAnomics, - as in Make America

:01:14. > :01:20.The Dow Jones index surged on Mr Trump's election in November -

:01:21. > :01:23.and it has continued its upwards march after breaking

:01:24. > :01:29.through the 20,000 mark at the start of the year.

:01:30. > :01:33.It's up 3200 points or 17% since the election

:01:34. > :01:35.But political divisions are beginning to see the Trump

:01:36. > :01:42.Take his flagship policy - replacing the Affordable healthcare

:01:43. > :01:45.He's struggling to get fellow Republicans to agree

:01:46. > :01:50.One senior figure in the party is now warning it may take as long

:01:51. > :01:55.This has raised doubts over political support for some

:01:56. > :01:57.of his other plans - the ones that have got

:01:58. > :02:02.Cutting regulation in the energy and banking sectors,

:02:03. > :02:05.and the big one - his highly anticipated overhaul of the tax

:02:06. > :02:08.system that would see big cuts for business

:02:09. > :02:16.So what about the broader economy itself?

:02:17. > :02:19.President Trump promised to raise the GDP growth rate to 3% -

:02:20. > :02:21.a level it hasn't sustained since the 1990s.

:02:22. > :02:24.But six months in - that goal still looks

:02:25. > :02:27.In the first three months of this year -

:02:28. > :02:31.despite being revised up - the figure's less than half of that.

:02:32. > :02:34.And the rate for April to June is expected to be better -

:02:35. > :02:40.Earlier this week the President's frustration was clear at the lack

:02:41. > :02:48.For seven years you have promised the American people that

:02:49. > :02:53.you will repeal Obamacare, people are hurting.

:02:54. > :02:57.Inaction is not an option and I don't think we should leave

:02:58. > :03:00.town unless we have an health insurance plan and unless we can

:03:01. > :03:02.give our people great healthcare because we are close.

:03:03. > :03:26.Obamacare, the repeal of the Obamacare was supposed to be easy,

:03:27. > :03:29.the one that most Republicans have been talking about for seven years

:03:30. > :03:33.but they can't even get that through. It has been challenging.

:03:34. > :03:36.There are so many different views not only between the Democrats and

:03:37. > :03:40.the Republicans but within the Republican Party itself. Agreeing to

:03:41. > :03:48.a new plan has proven challenging and it demonstrates that Trump is

:03:49. > :03:52.not a good political operator. Many people within Congress and who, on

:03:53. > :03:56.his behalf, are trying to make it happen. But, yeah, it is not

:03:57. > :04:01.happening and it is troubling, I think, in terms of his agenda. Tax

:04:02. > :04:04.reform is the one that Wall Street was getting excited about, along

:04:05. > :04:08.with the regulation. They are struggling to get Obamacare through,

:04:09. > :04:13.surely tax reform will be an even bigger challenge? The market has

:04:14. > :04:16.accepted this already. The expectation on the timing of tax

:04:17. > :04:20.reform and on the breadth of it and extent and how powerful it is. It

:04:21. > :04:24.has all been well back in market terms. The market is not looking for

:04:25. > :04:28.that much in terms of tax reform. They are looking for something

:04:29. > :04:32.probably later this year, probably in Q4, maybe early next year. That

:04:33. > :04:38.there is no expectation of the big sort of plan that was laid out back

:04:39. > :04:45.in last year. Why do you think they have reduced their expectations?

:04:46. > :04:50.Well, you see, I think you have to understand, the market itself is not

:04:51. > :04:56.just about Trumponomics. There is a lot of liquidity out their. There

:04:57. > :04:59.are a central banks around the world were still printing money and, in

:05:00. > :05:03.fact, purchasing equity our newly created money. It is an Alice in

:05:04. > :05:10.Wonderland world, topsy-turvy economics. Pushes the market higher.

:05:11. > :05:17.Of course, the market can see that Donald Trump is struggling to get

:05:18. > :05:21.stuff through Congress. But is discussed in growth. President Trump

:05:22. > :05:26.would like to see 3% and we have not seen that sustained since the 1990s.

:05:27. > :05:31.They have had 1.4 from January to March, we expect higher for the next

:05:32. > :05:36.quarter. Should we judge him already on his failure to hit 3% a six-month

:05:37. > :05:42.long on off? Of course not. The first quarter in the US has seasonal

:05:43. > :05:46.pressures. It is often weak. You seen that happen since the GST I

:05:47. > :05:51.would not read too much into that. Of course it is too soon. Ataxia is,

:05:52. > :05:55.really, to have the full impact and to be honest, as we have just

:05:56. > :06:02.discussed, not much has come into being from his policy. I think it is

:06:03. > :06:07.way too early to judge. Do you think he will hit 3% and when? I don't

:06:08. > :06:10.think you will. I don't think he has demonstrated the ability to push

:06:11. > :06:12.through what he wants, it is not really happening. Thank you very

:06:13. > :06:14.much. We are also talking Brexit -

:06:15. > :06:17.because UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been hosting talks

:06:18. > :06:20.with British business leaders - after criticism her government

:06:21. > :06:23.is not addressing their worries. She told them she's aiming

:06:24. > :06:25.for a 'smooth orderly exit' from the European Union -promising

:06:26. > :06:28.a 'period of implementation in order Our business editor Simon Jack has

:06:29. > :06:35.been hearing from one of London's top banking bosses about the costly

:06:36. > :06:38.contingency plans HE is having to make - and the need

:06:39. > :06:51.for a transitional deal to be agreed We obviously have contingency plans

:06:52. > :06:56.which we have prepared. We got on to them after the referendum. They are

:06:57. > :07:02.detailed plans and we are moving down a path. One thing must insurers

:07:03. > :07:06.that come the end of March 2019, we are in a place to service our

:07:07. > :07:10.clients, whatever the outcome of the negotiations. We have contingency

:07:11. > :07:15.plans, we have offices in many European cities. Right now we have

:07:16. > :07:23.them in Paris, Stockholm, Madrid, Milan. We have banks in Paris and

:07:24. > :07:29.Frankfurt. We will work to buffer that up some what. It in the context

:07:30. > :07:34.of a contingency plan. London will remain a significant financial

:07:35. > :07:38.centre whatever the outcome of the discussions. We will maintain a

:07:39. > :07:43.significant presence in London. But as the rule requires us to have more

:07:44. > :07:49.on the continent, then we will have more on the continent. The financial

:07:50. > :07:53.conduct authority, to whom you submitted your plans, they said they

:07:54. > :07:58.thought banks would need to know what was going to happen this year,

:07:59. > :08:04.or get some certainty, some clarity from the government this before they

:08:05. > :08:11.start having to hit the contingency buttons. Is that right? The only way

:08:12. > :08:15.to describe the contingency plan is that we are buying in Torrance. I

:08:16. > :08:20.spend money every day to make sure that come March 2019I am open for

:08:21. > :08:26.business. Obviously, as each month goes by I spend more money. The

:08:27. > :08:32.certainty becomes less useful for me as we go further down the path. If I

:08:33. > :08:37.knew today, if I knew today that we would have a significant transition

:08:38. > :08:41.period, I could stop spending money. Taking out that insurance. I know I

:08:42. > :08:49.would always have time to transition my business. If they tell me, in

:08:50. > :08:53.February 2019, there will be a transition period, then has spent

:08:54. > :08:57.that money and it is not much use to me. At that point, a transition

:08:58. > :09:00.period does not help. The sooner we know the answer about whether they

:09:01. > :09:05.will or will not have a transition period, it will helpful. You need to

:09:06. > :09:07.know this year? The sooner the better.

:09:08. > :09:10.Let's go to Asia now and you may be wondering what UK

:09:11. > :09:13.Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is doing here with a robot.

:09:14. > :09:15.Well, he's in Japan to discuss, among other things,

:09:16. > :09:18.trade relations ahead of Brexit and to reassure business chiefs

:09:19. > :09:21.who have made major investments in the UK.

:09:22. > :09:24.That's been the top story for our Asia business team today -

:09:25. > :09:35.Sharanjit Leyl in Singapore is following it for us.

:09:36. > :09:43.It is fairly oily and at the moment. As he saw there, he again his visit

:09:44. > :09:49.was a visit to the Robotics Centre in Tokyo. His meeting with his

:09:50. > :09:53.counterpart as we speak. They just had a press conference when he

:09:54. > :09:56.declared that the UK stands shoulder to shoulder with Japan in efforts to

:09:57. > :10:01.rein in the nuclear ambitions from North Korea. But, of course, it is

:10:02. > :10:06.really Brexit under a percussion so will dominate his visit. He has been

:10:07. > :10:08.talking of strong economic ties between the nine countries and

:10:09. > :10:12.noting that Japanese companies have invested over $50 billion in the UK.

:10:13. > :10:19.Japan's political and business leaders as well, they did not want

:10:20. > :10:23.reassuring because they are reported to be concerned about the state of

:10:24. > :10:27.negotiations. We know that Boris Johnson is not directly involved but

:10:28. > :10:32.it is important for him to reassure these leaders. We know that the UK

:10:33. > :10:35.is the second most important destination for Japanese investment

:10:36. > :10:40.after the United States. But, Boris Johnson has his work cut out for him

:10:41. > :10:45.after the Japanese agreed a free-trade deal with the earlier

:10:46. > :10:49.this month. That may likely Comput Chem matters. It is scheduled to

:10:50. > :10:51.come into effect early 2019 just as the time that Britain is due to

:10:52. > :10:53.leave the block. US authorities have fined

:10:54. > :10:56.Exxon Mobil $2m for violating sanctions against Russia while

:10:57. > :10:58.Secretary of State Rex Tillerson Exxon dealt with Igor Sechin,

:10:59. > :11:07.the president of Russian oil giant Rosneft, who was blacklisted,

:11:08. > :11:09.the US Treasury Department said. Exxon has challenged the finding,

:11:10. > :11:19.calling it "fundamentally unfair". That's it for us. Don't forget you

:11:20. > :11:30.can get in touch with us via Twitter.