0:00:00 > 0:00:03Should Scotland be an independent country
0:00:03 > 0:00:06and should voters have the right to get rid of their MPs?
0:00:06 > 0:00:09Some of the things discussed on Y Sgwrs.
0:00:19 > 0:00:23Good evening. Joining us this evening is the former Plaid Cymru leader
0:00:23 > 0:00:27Dafydd Wigley, Manon George, a lecturer on law at Cardiff University
0:00:27 > 0:00:31who is also a member of the Wales Governance Centre,
0:00:31 > 0:00:35and the Tory MP, Glyn Davies, is in our Westminster studio.
0:00:35 > 0:00:37A warm welcome to you three.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41The British government's has set out its agenda
0:00:41 > 0:00:43until the next general election.
0:00:43 > 0:00:47One recommendation is to give the public the right
0:00:47 > 0:00:50to sack their MP if they're guilty of serious misconduct.
0:00:50 > 0:00:53There isn't much love felt towards politicians
0:00:53 > 0:00:55so is that welcomed?
0:00:55 > 0:00:58If you look at politicians in general...
0:01:01 > 0:01:04..there is room for improvement.
0:01:04 > 0:01:08Maybe this is the right step but how will you police it?
0:01:08 > 0:01:10I'm not sure.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13That and the content of the Queen's Speech to come
0:01:13 > 0:01:16but to start with, the referendum campaign in Scotland
0:01:16 > 0:01:18has officially started.
0:01:18 > 0:01:22Over the next 15 weeks there will be debates for and against
0:01:22 > 0:01:23independence for the country.
0:01:23 > 0:01:29Our reporters, James Williams and Daniel Davies are in the thick of it.
0:01:37 > 0:01:39Glasgow - the home of Celtic and Rangers
0:01:39 > 0:01:42some of football's biggest enemies.
0:01:42 > 0:01:45But Scotland's largest city is also the focal point
0:01:45 > 0:01:47of a political battle.
0:01:47 > 0:01:51I'm going to be listening to the arguments against independence.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54While I'll be listening to the arguments in favour.
0:01:56 > 0:01:59Welsh voices who now live in Scotland
0:01:59 > 0:02:02are on both sides of the argument.
0:02:05 > 0:02:07The biggest argument from the Yes campaign
0:02:07 > 0:02:09is that Scotland would be a fairer country.
0:02:09 > 0:02:12It seems that the wealth gap
0:02:12 > 0:02:15in the UK now, the gap is so big,
0:02:15 > 0:02:20only three other countries in the world have a bigger gap.
0:02:23 > 0:02:26I hope in a way, if we get our way up here
0:02:26 > 0:02:30Alex Salmond will be able to do something about this gap.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33For John and the Yes campaign, the feeling is
0:02:33 > 0:02:35this is a golden opportunity to create
0:02:35 > 0:02:37a fairer and wealthier country.
0:02:37 > 0:02:41They say it will be the 14th richest country in the world
0:02:41 > 0:02:45by using the country's natural resources in a sensible manner
0:02:45 > 0:02:47that will benefit Scottish people.
0:02:47 > 0:02:50The Yes campaign is emphasising a positive message,
0:02:50 > 0:02:54a message, they say, which is different to the negative message
0:02:54 > 0:02:55of the unionists.
0:02:55 > 0:03:00Hang on, the No campaign says coming together is the positive thing to do
0:03:00 > 0:03:04rather than pointing out the differences between UK countries.
0:03:04 > 0:03:08Isn't it better to share our resources and talents
0:03:08 > 0:03:12in order to ensure a prosperous future for everyone in the UK?
0:03:12 > 0:03:16That's the message they're trying to sell in this building.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19It's the No campaign HQ.
0:03:19 > 0:03:22It's a message which strikes a chord with people like Ann.
0:03:22 > 0:03:26Alex Salmond has given the people of this country an idea
0:03:26 > 0:03:31that it's a land of milk and honey and everything will be great.
0:03:31 > 0:03:35But last week, things started to change.
0:03:35 > 0:03:38The first thing was, he'd said,
0:03:38 > 0:03:41when it came to oil production,
0:03:41 > 0:03:45we would get 33 billion in the first four years.
0:03:45 > 0:03:49Then it went down to 28 and now it's down to 12.
0:03:49 > 0:03:52That, in four years...
0:03:52 > 0:03:55It's a huge difference, less than half.
0:04:00 > 0:04:03Well, the opinion polls show that the majority of people
0:04:03 > 0:04:08agree with Ann and the No campaign has been in the lead from the start.
0:04:08 > 0:04:10Yes but the opinion polls also show
0:04:10 > 0:04:12that lately, things are getting closer.
0:04:12 > 0:04:16A number of people haven't decided how to vote yet.
0:04:16 > 0:04:18That's true.
0:04:18 > 0:04:22With so many people finding it hard to make a decision
0:04:22 > 0:04:24the result hangs in the balance.
0:04:29 > 0:04:33There's three and a half months ago until the big day.
0:04:33 > 0:04:35Dafydd Wigley, when an election gets nearer
0:04:35 > 0:04:39history books do show that opinion polls show a close result.
0:04:39 > 0:04:43James was saying in that piece, in this case,
0:04:43 > 0:04:46I was going to disagree saying they weren't getting closer. Why not?
0:04:46 > 0:04:47They are getting closer.
0:04:47 > 0:04:50They are then the opinion polls are commissioned by the SNP.
0:04:50 > 0:04:53There are six opinion polls
0:04:53 > 0:04:57and only one, Ipsos MORI, has remained the same.
0:04:57 > 0:04:59But they haven't measured since February.
0:04:59 > 0:05:01The others show a constant increase.
0:05:01 > 0:05:06In the last one, for men, the score was 50-50.
0:05:06 > 0:05:11It is getting closer. If momentum carries on this way
0:05:11 > 0:05:15it's going to be tight and they could win.
0:05:15 > 0:05:18Would you agree with that, Glyn Davies? Opinion polls are close
0:05:18 > 0:05:22with more people who were undecided
0:05:22 > 0:05:26now being pulled in by Alex Salmond's arguments?
0:05:26 > 0:05:29Well, it's difficult to say what will exactly happen.
0:05:29 > 0:05:34At the moment, according to the opinion polls
0:05:36 > 0:05:39it seems people in Scotland will vote against independence.
0:05:39 > 0:05:43But it is a matter for people in Scotland.
0:05:43 > 0:05:45If they want independence, it will happen.
0:05:45 > 0:05:47I'm ready to accept their opinion.
0:05:47 > 0:05:51But at the moment I expect people in Scotland
0:05:51 > 0:05:55to remain part of Great Britain.
0:05:55 > 0:05:59Last week we heard Alex Salmond and Danny Alexander,
0:05:59 > 0:06:04they both were fighting it out saying Scotland was going to be richer.
0:06:04 > 0:06:07This has turned into being an economic battle,
0:06:07 > 0:06:11how much more money people will have in their pockets.
0:06:11 > 0:06:15Is it difficult for people, in the confusion of this debate,
0:06:15 > 0:06:17if they're going to be £1,000 better off under independence,
0:06:17 > 0:06:21£1,400 better off if they remain within the Union.
0:06:21 > 0:06:23That's the problem.
0:06:23 > 0:06:26A lot of unanswered questions remain.
0:06:26 > 0:06:30I think the opinion polls are getting closer
0:06:30 > 0:06:33and, like James said, many people are as yet undecided.
0:06:33 > 0:06:35I think it depends on three things.
0:06:35 > 0:06:39Firstly, sentiment. There will be some last minute decisions.
0:06:39 > 0:06:42Will be people be confident enough to vote yes
0:06:42 > 0:06:45or will they lose their nerve and vote no?
0:06:45 > 0:06:49Secondly, I see that the political context,
0:06:49 > 0:06:53the relationship between the government in London
0:06:53 > 0:06:58and the government in Scotland will affect the result.
0:06:58 > 0:07:01Finally, the strength of both campaigns.
0:07:01 > 0:07:04That No campaign has to be careful
0:07:04 > 0:07:07not to over-emphasise this idea of Britishness
0:07:07 > 0:07:13and put emphasis on the advantages of being part of the UK,
0:07:13 > 0:07:14economically too.
0:07:14 > 0:07:20On the economy, the IFS, who are highly regarded, said
0:07:20 > 0:07:23the monetary gap
0:07:23 > 0:07:26and how much Scottish people will have to pay in tax
0:07:26 > 0:07:28is bigger than originally thought.
0:07:28 > 0:07:33The financial gap is £8 million for the first year of independence.
0:07:33 > 0:07:36That doesn't lead anyone to think that Scotland
0:07:36 > 0:07:37can stand on its own two feet.
0:07:37 > 0:07:40It depends on the policies the Scottish government would follow
0:07:40 > 0:07:44and how they would cut the expenditure going to London now
0:07:44 > 0:07:46and things like nuclear weapons.
0:07:46 > 0:07:48They need to diversify their finances.
0:07:48 > 0:07:51If I was Scottish, I'd have no shadow of a doubt,
0:07:51 > 0:07:52I'd vote yes.
0:07:52 > 0:07:55I remember the first time I canvassed in the Rhondda in 1967,
0:07:55 > 0:07:59old miners used to tell me, you're here too late,
0:07:59 > 0:08:01you're 50 years too late. When we had the coal
0:08:01 > 0:08:03we'd be fine, it's too late now.
0:08:03 > 0:08:05Will the people of Scotland in 50 years' time say
0:08:05 > 0:08:09they regretted they didn't vote yes when they still had oil?
0:08:09 > 0:08:13You say that, but we're hearing from directors at RBS,
0:08:13 > 0:08:17Scottish Power, BT, BAe Systems, saying it would be hard for Scotland
0:08:17 > 0:08:23to join the EU. It would be a long way back in.
0:08:23 > 0:08:26They wouldn't have the same the UK has.
0:08:26 > 0:08:28Will all respect, I think that's rubbish.
0:08:28 > 0:08:31Once the vote is over, if Scotland is to be an independent country
0:08:31 > 0:08:35there's going to be 18 months of discussions with Europe
0:08:35 > 0:08:37about Union membership.
0:08:37 > 0:08:40I don't even see England preventing that from happening.
0:08:40 > 0:08:43Maybe Spain will create problems
0:08:43 > 0:08:47but they don't want to be seen as a country that prevents
0:08:47 > 0:08:50smaller countries from having their wishes.
0:08:50 > 0:08:52No, they'll be fine.
0:08:52 > 0:08:55Glyn Davies, are you surprised we've heard very little
0:08:55 > 0:08:57about identity.
0:08:57 > 0:09:00Do people feel as if they're Scottish
0:09:00 > 0:09:03or feel as if they belong to the United Kingdom?
0:09:03 > 0:09:07This argument has been about the money in people's pockets
0:09:07 > 0:09:09rather than a feeling of identity.
0:09:11 > 0:09:15At the moment, people have been discussing the economy.
0:09:15 > 0:09:19In the end, what I think will persuade people to vote
0:09:19 > 0:09:24are their feelings, how they see themselves.
0:09:24 > 0:09:26That's the point.
0:09:26 > 0:09:28Do people see themselves as Scottish
0:09:28 > 0:09:31or do they want to be part of Britain?
0:09:31 > 0:09:34We don't know. Nobody knows.
0:09:34 > 0:09:37At the moment I'd expect people in Scotland
0:09:37 > 0:09:40want to be Scottish and part of Britain
0:09:40 > 0:09:43just as I'm a Welshman and part of Britain.
0:09:43 > 0:09:45I think it will be that feeling
0:09:45 > 0:09:49that will persuade them to be part of Britain.
0:09:50 > 0:09:52In last three months of this campaign, Manon,
0:09:52 > 0:09:55how will both campaigns go about it?
0:09:55 > 0:09:59We don't see David Cameron much in Scotland.
0:09:59 > 0:10:03Is that a deliberate tactic on his campaign's behalf
0:10:03 > 0:10:08because he isn't a figure, and the Conservative Party isn't a party
0:10:08 > 0:10:11that's well loved in Scotland.
0:10:11 > 0:10:15Exactly. The Conservative Party isn't strong in Scotland at all.
0:10:15 > 0:10:19It is interesting to note that there hasn't been a head-to-head
0:10:19 > 0:10:22between David Cameron and Alex Salmond.
0:10:22 > 0:10:27But it was very interesting when we had David Cameron
0:10:27 > 0:10:31giving the speech in the Olympic Park at the beginning of the year
0:10:31 > 0:10:35trying to persuade people to remember the success of the Olympics
0:10:35 > 0:10:37and to remember their Britishness.
0:10:37 > 0:10:42That then fed the Yes campaign rather than the No campaign.
0:10:42 > 0:10:45Let's now turn to today's events.
0:10:45 > 0:10:48And the poor Queen, it was her 63rd speech,
0:10:48 > 0:10:50and we're still counting!
0:10:50 > 0:10:53She officially opened Parliament today.
0:10:53 > 0:10:56At least she had a new coach taking her from Buckingham Palace
0:10:56 > 0:10:58to Westminster Palace.
0:10:58 > 0:11:00For the last time before the general election,
0:11:00 > 0:11:05the government has set out the new bills that will be scrutinised
0:11:05 > 0:11:07by MPs over the next year.
0:11:07 > 0:11:10Janet Ebenezer has the details.
0:11:12 > 0:11:14My government's legislative programme
0:11:14 > 0:11:18will continue to deliver on its long-term plan
0:11:18 > 0:11:22to build a stronger economy and a fairer society.
0:11:22 > 0:11:25The Queen's Speech 2014.
0:11:25 > 0:11:28With a general election around the corner
0:11:28 > 0:11:30it's no surprise that the coalition government
0:11:30 > 0:11:33was keen to please the electorate.
0:11:33 > 0:11:38One of the main measures is to reform the pensions' system
0:11:38 > 0:11:40that will mean many of us
0:11:40 > 0:11:43can contribute to the same pot.
0:11:43 > 0:11:46According to the government, that will lead to lower costs
0:11:46 > 0:11:49leading to more income on your pension.
0:11:49 > 0:11:53Other measures include a scheme to make it easier to drill for gas
0:11:53 > 0:11:56and a measure to help with childcare costs.
0:11:57 > 0:12:01But as you go through the list of measures, 11 in all,
0:12:01 > 0:12:04one that will grab attention
0:12:04 > 0:12:07is the Recall Bill.
0:12:07 > 0:12:11It will give the voters, you and me, the right
0:12:11 > 0:12:14to sack our local MP through a petition
0:12:14 > 0:12:19if the House of Commons decided they are guilty of misconduct.
0:12:20 > 0:12:22Up until now, the Westminster Parliament
0:12:22 > 0:12:24has seen members resigning voluntarily,
0:12:24 > 0:12:27such as Eric Illsley and Dennis McShane
0:12:27 > 0:12:30for illegally claiming expenses.
0:12:30 > 0:12:34The symbol of the scandal at the time was the duck house
0:12:34 > 0:12:36owned by the Tory, Sir Peter Viggers.
0:12:36 > 0:12:42He claimed more than £1,500 for a special house for his birds.
0:12:44 > 0:12:47The scandals rocked Westminster to its foundations.
0:12:47 > 0:12:50If the new plans were recommended
0:12:50 > 0:12:55members of the public would have the right to get rid of their MPs.
0:12:55 > 0:12:59But is it fair that our politicians are open targets
0:12:59 > 0:13:02or is the idea totally quackers?
0:13:02 > 0:13:03Sorry!
0:13:04 > 0:13:08The recall bill already exists in the United States.
0:13:08 > 0:13:12The law was used in California back in 2003
0:13:12 > 0:13:16when the voters got rid of the Democrat governor,
0:13:16 > 0:13:21Gray Davis, and voted in the star of Total Recall,
0:13:21 > 0:13:23Arnold Schwarzenegger.
0:13:23 > 0:13:26But forget about Arnie for now,
0:13:26 > 0:13:30what do people think over in Wales?
0:13:31 > 0:13:32I think it's a good idea.
0:13:32 > 0:13:36Everybody's heard about the expenses and what's happened in London
0:13:36 > 0:13:38with many down there.
0:13:38 > 0:13:41I think it's a good idea to have a bit of power
0:13:41 > 0:13:43because it's been mis-used.
0:13:43 > 0:13:47Everybody makes mistakes once but if it happens more than once
0:13:47 > 0:13:52I think the public has the right to say what they think.
0:13:52 > 0:13:55One of the things is give people the right, you and me,
0:13:55 > 0:13:59to give our Members of Parliament the sack
0:13:59 > 0:14:01if they're guilty of misconduct.
0:14:01 > 0:14:05You could do it through a petition. Do you agree with that?
0:14:05 > 0:14:09Yes, but everything is done
0:14:09 > 0:14:14correctly and with the scrutiny of law.
0:14:14 > 0:14:18If we lose that it will just lead to chaos.
0:14:21 > 0:14:24I think they're all answerable
0:14:24 > 0:14:30especially in these current economic times.
0:14:30 > 0:14:33When you look at politicians in general
0:14:37 > 0:14:39there is room for improvement.
0:14:39 > 0:14:41Maybe this is a step in the right direction
0:14:41 > 0:14:44but how will you police it? I'm not sure.
0:14:44 > 0:14:48It is true that MPs are answerable to the electorate
0:14:48 > 0:14:52but usually you have to wait until an election before having a change.
0:14:52 > 0:14:56Under the new recommendations things would be very different.
0:14:56 > 0:15:01The politicians will know they'll be under the microscope at all times.
0:15:02 > 0:15:05Let's start with that idea, Glyn Davies,
0:15:05 > 0:15:08of voters having the right to sack their local MP.
0:15:08 > 0:15:12There are more hoops to jump through than you'd get
0:15:12 > 0:15:14in a packet of Hula Hoops.
0:15:14 > 0:15:17You have to have a petition signed by 10% of the electorate,
0:15:17 > 0:15:20and only if the MP is jailed for a year.
0:15:20 > 0:15:25Your Tory colleague, Zac Goldsmith, said today it's pointless.
0:15:25 > 0:15:28I know some people say that.
0:15:28 > 0:15:33To be honest, I sympathise with people who think that.
0:15:33 > 0:15:36But this is an important step in moving forward.
0:15:36 > 0:15:42At the moment, the public have to wait until a general election
0:15:42 > 0:15:45to give their Member of Parliament the sack.
0:15:45 > 0:15:48That system has been changed now.
0:15:48 > 0:15:53People will have the opportunity to sack MPs in-between elections.
0:15:53 > 0:15:56I think this is important.
0:15:56 > 0:15:58I support that.
0:15:58 > 0:16:02I know that some people, and Zac Goldsmith is one of them,
0:16:02 > 0:16:06want a stricter bill.
0:16:06 > 0:16:11It's possible, if this doesn't work, we will have a stricter bill.
0:16:11 > 0:16:16The Liberal Democrats said it's better to have an imperfect bill
0:16:16 > 0:16:18rather than no bill at all.
0:16:18 > 0:16:21Are we going to see this bill being changed
0:16:21 > 0:16:23as it goes through Westminster?
0:16:26 > 0:16:30An academic would say laws are similar to sausages.
0:16:30 > 0:16:33You don't want to know how they're made.
0:16:33 > 0:16:35Maybe this is one of those laws.
0:16:35 > 0:16:38It appears that it will be tweaked.
0:16:38 > 0:16:40Laws have to be clear, they have to be self-evident.
0:16:40 > 0:16:45Looking at the ideas I got from the Queen's Speech today,
0:16:45 > 0:16:52it isn't clear how a by-election would be called.
0:16:52 > 0:16:56One more headline in this speech was the change to pensions.
0:16:56 > 0:17:00From now on, people can withdraw the total of their pension.
0:17:00 > 0:17:03Is that responsible legislation?
0:17:03 > 0:17:05I think there's room for change in this.
0:17:05 > 0:17:07It depends on the details.
0:17:07 > 0:17:10So many of the problems are in the details,
0:17:10 > 0:17:12just like the MPs recall bill.
0:17:12 > 0:17:17On that, of course the public should have the right,
0:17:17 > 0:17:20if anyone should get rid of their MP, it shouldn't be down
0:17:20 > 0:17:23to the Speaker or the Commons, it should be the voters.
0:17:23 > 0:17:26But what was very important in this speech today
0:17:26 > 0:17:28which deserves attention is this fracking.
0:17:28 > 0:17:33If people are given the right to go onto land without permission
0:17:33 > 0:17:35and look into the possibility of fracking,
0:17:35 > 0:17:39I think that's unacceptable and it should be fought against.
0:17:39 > 0:17:41Glyn Davies?
0:17:41 > 0:17:43I agree with Dafydd.
0:17:43 > 0:17:46That's more controversial than anything else.
0:17:46 > 0:17:49But what the government says is,
0:17:49 > 0:17:55the only way to see if shale gas is available,
0:17:55 > 0:17:59if shale gas can be found, the only way to do that
0:17:59 > 0:18:03is to give people permission to find out.
0:18:03 > 0:18:07The only way to do that is through what was mentioned today.
0:18:07 > 0:18:10We have to remember it is deep underground.
0:18:10 > 0:18:15Fracking's taking place
0:18:15 > 0:18:195,000 feet underground.
0:18:19 > 0:18:21I don't think anybody...
0:18:21 > 0:18:24Nobody worries about flying...
0:18:29 > 0:18:32..but when you go underground, people are worried.
0:18:32 > 0:18:36I'm going to support this. I don't know if shale gas can happen,
0:18:36 > 0:18:39I don't know what its potential is yet.
0:18:39 > 0:18:42But the only way we can find out
0:18:42 > 0:18:46is to go through the proposals in the Queens's Speech.
0:18:46 > 0:18:48We have to discuss a few other things.
0:18:48 > 0:18:52The Westminster Government is going to adopt
0:18:52 > 0:18:55a law that exists in Wales, the tax on plastic bags.
0:18:55 > 0:18:58Is this a sign that good practice is being adopted
0:18:58 > 0:19:00right across the governments?
0:19:00 > 0:19:04It was nice to see that the Wales Bill was going to continue
0:19:04 > 0:19:08to the next term with regards to tax raising powers.
0:19:08 > 0:19:14But that England were following Wales. We had set an example.
0:19:14 > 0:19:17It shows the Assembly maturing legislatively.
0:19:17 > 0:19:21It's leading the way.
0:19:21 > 0:19:25We have to move on, you're one of UKIP's harshest critics
0:19:25 > 0:19:29or you were before the European elections.
0:19:29 > 0:19:30Definitely!
0:19:30 > 0:19:34But there was no mention of immigrants or immigration
0:19:34 > 0:19:38in this speech. Did that surprise you considering UKIP's growth?
0:19:38 > 0:19:41Yes, it does. If we had our own programme
0:19:41 > 0:19:43- Plaid Cymru would bring something in on this.- Such as?
0:19:43 > 0:19:47Next Tuesday I will be presenting a private bill to the Lords.
0:19:47 > 0:19:50Glyn Davies, why is there no mention of immigration?
0:19:50 > 0:19:52Is David Cameron burying his head in the sand?
0:19:52 > 0:19:56No. What was said today is what we're going to do
0:19:56 > 0:19:59over the next ten months.
0:19:59 > 0:20:02We're not going to be doing anything on that.
0:20:02 > 0:20:05Some people want...
0:20:05 > 0:20:09A lot of people vote UKIP
0:20:09 > 0:20:11and it changes the way people think.
0:20:11 > 0:20:16What's important to us is doing the best thing for Britain.
0:20:16 > 0:20:20I don't want change the best way because UKIP has done well.
0:20:20 > 0:20:23It's important to find out what's best.
0:20:23 > 0:20:26That's what the coalition is going to do.
0:20:26 > 0:20:29But we need to make sure that workers in Wales
0:20:29 > 0:20:30are not under-priced.
0:20:30 > 0:20:34Finally, we've already discussed MPs misbehaving and tomorrow
0:20:34 > 0:20:38there will be a by-election in Newark, Nottinghamshire
0:20:38 > 0:20:41after the Conservative MPs, Patrick Mercer, resigned
0:20:41 > 0:20:45following allegations he took cash for questions.
0:20:45 > 0:20:48Following UKIP's success in England's local elections
0:20:48 > 0:20:50and in the European elections,
0:20:50 > 0:20:54there's been talk of the threat by Nigel Farage's party
0:20:54 > 0:20:56on the Conservative vote.
0:20:56 > 0:21:01The party won more than predicted in the England elections
0:21:01 > 0:21:05and came top of the European elections there.
0:21:05 > 0:21:08In Wales, they were second behind Labour.
0:21:08 > 0:21:12Glyn Davies, are you worried about this result in Newark?
0:21:12 > 0:21:14I expect the Conservatives to win.
0:21:14 > 0:21:20I've been calling people in Newark tonight before coming here.
0:21:20 > 0:21:23It feels very positive there
0:21:23 > 0:21:26and I expect to win the seat.
0:21:26 > 0:21:29Can I tell you something that might make you feel uncomfortable.
0:21:29 > 0:21:34In an area that included 75% of the electorate in the European elections
0:21:34 > 0:21:36UKIP were top.
0:21:36 > 0:21:40In Powys, it was the same thing.
0:21:40 > 0:21:42UKIP topped the poll in Powys.
0:21:42 > 0:21:47But I think if there was a general election in Powys
0:21:47 > 0:21:50I don't think UKIP would win.
0:21:50 > 0:21:53People say things but in the general election and tomorrow,
0:21:53 > 0:21:58many more people will vote.
0:21:58 > 0:22:01I think people who stayed at home last week,
0:22:01 > 0:22:05I think they'll come out tomorrow and I think we'll see Robert Jenrick
0:22:05 > 0:22:08will be the new Member of Parliament.
0:22:08 > 0:22:10I think he will be a good MP.
0:22:10 > 0:22:15The Conservatives have only won one by-election whilst in government.
0:22:15 > 0:22:18Do you remember who it was?
0:22:18 > 0:22:21William Hague in 1989.
0:22:21 > 0:22:23Yes! I was about to say that.
0:22:23 > 0:22:27He nearly lost the 19,000 majority.
0:22:27 > 0:22:31Patrick Mercer's majority was 1,500.
0:22:31 > 0:22:35Is it possible we'll see the first UKIP MP?
0:22:35 > 0:22:38Of course there is.
0:22:38 > 0:22:42Parties sometimes get a protest vote in by-elections.
0:22:42 > 0:22:45But in this case, I think UKIP's a flash in the pan.
0:22:45 > 0:22:48I think they're starting their way down.
0:22:48 > 0:22:50When it comes to Britain's politics,
0:22:50 > 0:22:55what would it mean to have a UKIP Member of Parliament
0:22:55 > 0:22:58in Westminster? Would that open the floodgates?
0:22:58 > 0:23:02Will people think they want to vote more?
0:23:02 > 0:23:06Sure, but it's a different context than the European elections
0:23:06 > 0:23:11because it's first past the post in the Westminster elections.
0:23:11 > 0:23:17UKIP voters are spread right across the United Kingdom.
0:23:17 > 0:23:21When you look at the percentages who voted for UKIP,
0:23:21 > 0:23:23that was only 9% of the population.
0:23:23 > 0:23:28That will reflect differently on the general election.
0:23:28 > 0:23:29But who knows?
0:23:29 > 0:23:33David Cameron has been in that constituency three times already.
0:23:33 > 0:23:37Going back to the question I asked earlier,
0:23:37 > 0:23:41do you think he has woken up too late to this threat?
0:23:41 > 0:23:47They're a party who's ideology is similar to the Conservatives'.
0:23:47 > 0:23:49Has he woken up too late to the threat?
0:23:49 > 0:23:52No, I don't think so.
0:23:52 > 0:23:56What the Conservative Party is doing is its best.
0:23:56 > 0:23:59It's a new system, Grant Shapps is chairman,
0:23:59 > 0:24:03he has organised things. David Cameron wants to be part of that.
0:24:03 > 0:24:05Every one of us have been part of that.
0:24:05 > 0:24:07I think our system has worked well
0:24:07 > 0:24:10and it will be a shock if he doesn't win.
0:24:10 > 0:24:14But we've seen UKIP coming in and people expect them to win
0:24:14 > 0:24:17but I don't think people expect that now.
0:24:17 > 0:24:20What would be a disappointing result for the party?
0:24:22 > 0:24:24Losing the seat will be disappointing.
0:24:24 > 0:24:26If he wins the seat...
0:24:28 > 0:24:33You know it has been difficult for the Conservatives over the years
0:24:33 > 0:24:35to win by-elections.
0:24:37 > 0:24:41Glyn, we have to leave it there.
0:24:41 > 0:24:43That's all for tonight, many thanks.
0:24:43 > 0:24:47Thanks to all our guests and you at home for joining me.
0:24:47 > 0:24:52We'll be back at the usual time of 9.30pm next Wednesday. Good night.