Wales and the Scottish Referendum

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:00:25. > :00:30.In a few days to Scots will vote to decide whether or not to leave the

:00:31. > :00:35.UK. Whichever way it goes, it could bruise and Wales with problems as

:00:36. > :00:39.well as opportunities. If Scotland leaves, we'll be left in the smaller

:00:40. > :00:44.UK, even more outnumbered by our next-door neighbours, but if they

:00:45. > :00:48.stay we could get lost in the noise, the poor relation. The Times

:00:49. > :00:52.they are changing and noise, the poor relation. The Times

:00:53. > :01:01.the people's future and 300 years of their history are at stake in this

:01:02. > :01:09.vote. Welsh politics can feel disengaged and in danger of drift.

:01:10. > :01:10.In a place like the birthplace of the NHS, people are

:01:11. > :01:19.In a place like the birthplace of all a bit managerial and unexciting.

:01:20. > :01:26.And it's a long way from a Scotland alive with debate and heated

:01:27. > :01:32.discussion. We can govern ourselves better than anyone else. You can't

:01:33. > :01:37.keep spending money you haven't got. What I don't understand if it so

:01:38. > :01:43.good in the UK, why in Scotland do we have one in nine children living

:01:44. > :01:48.in extreme poverty? The Scottish Government get over ?34 billion of

:01:49. > :01:52.money to spend. It's not just in Scotland that argument and ambition

:01:53. > :01:57.are on the rise. In the North of England and in Westminster you can

:01:58. > :02:00.hear the noise of battles over the future. If we are about to change

:02:01. > :02:05.the union again in their favour, maybe we should change in England's

:02:06. > :02:10.favour at the same time. If we have to fight, we will and we will

:02:11. > :02:13.survive. In Scotland, the North of England and Westminster I've been

:02:14. > :02:21.assessing the challenges for Wales in what's likely to be a fast

:02:22. > :02:24.changing UK and asking people if there is a vision which could unite

:02:25. > :02:30.and inspire our nation. On the hillside here, the memorial stones

:02:31. > :02:35.stand mute and largely visited. A silent now is the heavy industries

:02:36. > :02:40.that forged Welsh values, values that helped shape Britain. Now as

:02:41. > :02:45.the UK faces major constitutional change, where's the vision for

:02:46. > :02:54.Wales? What sort of country do we want to live in in the 21st-century?

:02:55. > :03:01.Ladies and gentlemen, give it up for King Robert the Bruce, hero of

:03:02. > :03:05.Scotland. Welcome to the battlefield of Bannockburn, just outside

:03:06. > :03:10.Stirling and the celebrations of the 700th anniversary of Robert the

:03:11. > :03:17.Bruce's victory against the English in the first Scottish War of

:03:18. > :03:20.independence. All around this site, people are enjoying and indulging in

:03:21. > :03:27.Scottish history, culture and folklore. Generally the Scots are a

:03:28. > :03:30.bit better that we are at remembering their distant past. That

:03:31. > :03:35.might be because they tended to win some of their wars while we lost all

:03:36. > :03:39.hours! That meant they kept a lot of the national institution that we

:03:40. > :03:50.until recently, lacked but that's not really what this is about. This

:03:51. > :03:54.is really just a heritage event. And though there is plenty of grunting

:03:55. > :03:59.and yelling, and it all looks suitably dream in the driving

:04:00. > :04:01.Scottish rain, the whole thing was presented in a jolly and welcoming

:04:02. > :04:13.fashioning phi visit Scotland. Now there's no doubt that there the

:04:14. > :04:18.odd sniff of anti-English sentiment lingering in Scotland. But by and

:04:19. > :04:24.large it's been pretty absent from the debate over Scottish

:04:25. > :04:29.independence 2014. We want a Scotland which is greener, fairer

:04:30. > :04:33.and more prosperous. Alex Salmond and his lieutenants have been busily

:04:34. > :04:37.projecting the image of a confident and inclusive nation, a nation to

:04:38. > :04:44.which anyone living in Scotland can belong. Equally no campaigners have

:04:45. > :04:49.been keen to emphasise that they are proud Scots to a man and a woman.

:04:50. > :04:54.Let us never yield one inch to the suggestion that this is somehow an

:04:55. > :04:57.auction of Pat Richards in which the Nationalists are the highest

:04:58. > :05:04.bidders. Both sides say it's all about ideas for tomorrow, not

:05:05. > :05:08.identity. Neither side has been talking much about the past, they've

:05:09. > :05:13.been talking about how you create a more prosperous Scotland and how you

:05:14. > :05:17.use that prosperity to tackle the inequalities of this country. The

:05:18. > :05:21.yes side so you can't do that within the union, well the no side insists

:05:22. > :05:29.you can share the resources of the UK. But how is that debate playing

:05:30. > :05:35.out in the different communities of Scotland? I've come to the once

:05:36. > :05:39.battered but now reborn city of Glasgow and first up I meeting the

:05:40. > :05:42.well-known expert on voting behaviour and political attitudes,

:05:43. > :05:53.John Curtis of Strathclyde University. We have areas of immense

:05:54. > :05:55.poverty and deprivation. People may think I'm not getting anything from

:05:56. > :05:58.the current settlement, what have I got to lose? How much of a part is

:05:59. > :06:03.that playing and how people vote? One thing that distinguishes the

:06:04. > :06:07.different voters is those people who are from working-class backgrounds,

:06:08. > :06:13.who live in deprived areas, they seem to be rather more inclined to

:06:14. > :06:18.vote yes than those in more secure occupations in the nicer, leafy

:06:19. > :06:22.parts of Scotland. Those two sections of Scottish society have

:06:23. > :06:26.different views under what is the essential issue in this campaign for

:06:27. > :06:30.most people, which is whether or not you think that as a result of

:06:31. > :06:33.independence Scotland will be a richer country or not. Is

:06:34. > :06:41.independence going to deliver economic benefit because Scotland

:06:42. > :06:52.will be a run the economy in their way which meets its own needs. Those

:06:53. > :06:56.who have less to lose, for whom perhaps taking what many people seem

:06:57. > :07:02.to regard as the risk of independence, they are more willing

:07:03. > :07:06.to vote yes. Those who have more to lose, the middle-class etc, they are

:07:07. > :07:12.much less willing to vote yes. When you predict elections, you have to

:07:13. > :07:17.do two things. What people think and how they vote. With this one you -

:07:18. > :07:25.looks like there's not much question about the second one, the turnout be

:07:26. > :07:29.high. We are looking at a contest in which there is extraordinary passion

:07:30. > :07:33.on both sides of the argument. In the way that 30 or 40 years ago

:07:34. > :07:37.people said I definitely want Labour to win the Conservatives to win. A

:07:38. > :07:42.passion which is now much rarer about our party politics. The second

:07:43. > :07:47.thing is that most people seem to accept this is an important choice.

:07:48. > :07:52.Whether or not Scotland becomes independent. The answer to that

:07:53. > :07:58.question matters and all the opinion polls say that. Maybe 80% of people

:07:59. > :08:03.are going to out and vote. One opinion poll said to people, have

:08:04. > :08:08.you had a conversation with other people about independence? 60% of

:08:09. > :08:10.people said yes. There are conversations going on,

:08:11. > :08:16.peer-to-peer, person-to-person, about this referendum and politics

:08:17. > :08:22.has been revived in a way we now thought was lost.

:08:23. > :08:28.You could say which ever side winds on Thursday, the real victor has

:08:29. > :08:34.been a more active democracy. Want to hear the voices of working-class

:08:35. > :08:38.Scotland because they are the people who are likely to decide the

:08:39. > :08:43.results, people who would normally be regarded as Labour voters. And I

:08:44. > :08:47.want to meet younger people because it is a generation battle and

:08:48. > :08:55.16-year-olds have the vote in this referendum. Famous amongst high-rise

:08:56. > :09:01.projects of Glasgow is this Drumchapel estate. I am visiting a

:09:02. > :09:06.project that seeks to fight unemployment, vandalism and drug

:09:07. > :09:11.addiction. I am meeting young men with mixed views on independence. If

:09:12. > :09:17.I can start with you, Peter, how much interest is there in this

:09:18. > :09:24.referendum? It is massive. There are so mini people involved in

:09:25. > :09:31.grassroots campaigns who would normally not do that. It is because

:09:32. > :09:35.of the disengagement. I am 32 years old and never voted because I've

:09:36. > :09:41.failed there has never been a point because my vote has never helped. Do

:09:42. > :09:47.you feel that way? It is grassroots politics. Choosing your government

:09:48. > :09:53.is a massive decision. It is a decision for my children and the

:09:54. > :09:57.next generation. I love my country, but there is a lot of issues and

:09:58. > :10:02.things that are still up in the air and that is why I don't want to

:10:03. > :10:09.commit my vote as yet. You are inclining towards yes, what matters

:10:10. > :10:13.were playing on your mind? I studied in college in the east end of

:10:14. > :10:19.Glasgow. There is a giant poster which says something along the lines

:10:20. > :10:25.of, financially stronger in the UK. I looked around me and there were

:10:26. > :10:34.shutters, derelict buildings and I thought, that will continue to go on

:10:35. > :10:39.if we remain part of the UK. Jamie, you are 16 and will be voting for

:10:40. > :10:46.the first time and planning to vote no, what is swaying you that way?

:10:47. > :10:54.Money. England could take the stuff they have given us. We will have

:10:55. > :10:59.nothing. You think Scotland needs England to survive last remark I

:11:00. > :11:06.don't then we need England, but we could use their help. I am guessing

:11:07. > :11:10.when Alex Salmond decided 16-year-olds could vote in this

:11:11. > :11:15.referendum he would be thinking you would be voting yes. He must be

:11:16. > :11:21.disappointed, what is it about this that seems to scare you? What if

:11:22. > :11:28.something major happens? We don't know... What ever you do their rig

:11:29. > :11:34.risks. You have one side saying these are the figures. Another set

:11:35. > :11:43.of experts and figures say it would be a disaster. You have the boss of

:11:44. > :11:51.shell saying they would not work in Scotland. They are scaremongering.

:11:52. > :11:56.How do you go back? What about 15 years down the line and we think

:11:57. > :12:09.this independence isn't working, do we get out the begging bowl. They

:12:10. > :12:17.really don't care. There is risks and it might not work. I don't think

:12:18. > :12:28.we will crawl back, but what can we do? We're not an oil-rich nation, we

:12:29. > :12:44.have other riches and yet we have food banks. Do you think... You have

:12:45. > :12:49.to think if it is a fairer society. Whether it is your goal in life. To

:12:50. > :12:55.someone used to the apathy apart of the Welsh electorate there was

:12:56. > :13:00.something inspiring about the deep engagement of the young men of

:13:01. > :13:06.Drumchapel. The Scottish Street has been switched on politically and its

:13:07. > :13:11.views are challenging for the UK's governing elite. What was striking

:13:12. > :13:16.talking to people in Drumchapel was that while there were mixed views on

:13:17. > :13:20.independence, nobody had any confidence in the ability of the UK

:13:21. > :13:26.to deliver change. Parliament and government in Westminster were

:13:27. > :13:32.regarded West, irrelevant and at worst, benevolent. If that is the

:13:33. > :13:40.case across Scotland, this could be what is predicted all along, a fight

:13:41. > :13:44.between hope and fear. So far I have deliberately steered clear of

:13:45. > :13:49.current professional politicians and I will keep that up. But it is time

:13:50. > :13:54.to hear from some activists in the campaign. Pacific tea on the River

:13:55. > :13:58.Clyde is one of the newest developments in modern Glasgow. You

:13:59. > :14:02.might recognise it from the Commonwealth Games. It is here I am

:14:03. > :14:07.meeting the journalist and former Labour member of the Scottish

:14:08. > :14:10.Parliament who supports the Better Together campaign and the

:14:11. > :14:15.pro-independence is this woman, Michelle Thomson. She is convinced

:14:16. > :14:21.Scotland needs control of its own finances if it is to be an equal

:14:22. > :14:30.society. The Scottish Parliament only has control over 7% of its

:14:31. > :14:35.fiscal money. 85% of the decision-making resting with

:14:36. > :14:39.Westminster. That is not correct. The decision-making under 85% does

:14:40. > :14:45.not lie with Westminster, that is why we had devolution. This

:14:46. > :14:50.democratic deficit, that is wide Parliament was created. You have

:14:51. > :14:55.been in Drumchapel, you can see what has been happening there. It had a

:14:56. > :14:59.lot of issues to do with poverty but there are new houses being built,

:15:00. > :15:03.jobs being created and tackling those issues. The Scottish

:15:04. > :15:08.Parliament has control over all domestic issues and control over its

:15:09. > :15:15.own economy, control over transport and health. The SNP have been in

:15:16. > :15:18.control for seven years so they cannot start shouting

:15:19. > :15:19.control for seven years so they problems over the health. They get

:15:20. > :15:23.aliens are pounced to spend an regard as priorities. What I don't

:15:24. > :15:31.alligator -- regard as priorities. What I don't

:15:32. > :15:36.understand is if it is so good in the UK, why in Scotland do we

:15:37. > :15:36.understand is if it is so good in one in nine children living in

:15:37. > :15:44.extreme poverty. That is Oxfam one in nine children living in

:15:45. > :15:47.does not have control over that, we can do so much better. Why would the

:15:48. > :15:55.SNP not to vote... I represent can do so much better. Why would the

:15:56. > :16:05.business organisation. You represent the Scottish Parliament. It has tax

:16:06. > :16:13.business organisation. You represent varying powers. It doesn't. It is

:16:14. > :16:15.business organisation. You represent interest on VAT, capital gains tax,

:16:16. > :16:24.where does the tax go? And so interest on VAT, capital gains tax,

:16:25. > :16:29.question. It comes back to Scotland. We raised more tax per

:16:30. > :16:30.question. It comes back to head of population in Scotland

:16:31. > :16:36.question. It comes back to they do in the UK. You have not been

:16:37. > :16:39.keeping up with the numbers. We can verify that. We have had more back

:16:40. > :16:51.than we have verify that. We have had more back

:16:52. > :16:54.question I have been asking verify that. We have had more back

:16:55. > :17:00.campaign for the best part of a year. Can you articulate

:17:01. > :17:13.campaign for the best part of a for Scotland and that is where they

:17:14. > :17:18.standing in my ambition of what Scotland should be. The children

:17:19. > :17:24.visit the science centre. What about Scotland should be. The children

:17:25. > :17:31.the ones in extreme poverty? Do you not care about that enough? That is

:17:32. > :17:38.insulting to say I don't care about poor children. My division for

:17:39. > :17:45.Scotland for them is they get the same chances in life that I did.

:17:46. > :17:48.Exactly. It is the sound of the referendum debate. It

:17:49. > :17:50.Exactly. It is the sound of the and divided and you may have noticed

:17:51. > :17:53.it could be difficult for a Welshman to get a word in our times. Maybe

:17:54. > :18:00.that is the way it should be. to get a word in our times. Maybe

:18:01. > :18:02.Scotland's decision but whatever happens it feels like a watershed

:18:03. > :18:07.moment in British life. happens it feels like a watershed

:18:08. > :18:11.time when Glasgow was known as the second city of the British Empire.

:18:12. > :18:15.time when Glasgow was known as the Who knows, maybe this is where the

:18:16. > :18:22.Empire and Britain come to die? Soon enough we will now and both of those

:18:23. > :18:26.answers, but they are answers to produce more questions. Not

:18:27. > :18:29.answers, but they are answers to Scotland but the other countries of

:18:30. > :18:34.this currently United Kingdom. Perhaps the sharpest questions our

:18:35. > :18:39.biggest threats are going to be faced by cars in Wales as others

:18:40. > :18:54.jockey for position in the transforming or dissolving the

:18:55. > :19:00.United Kingdom. Crucially the English regions energised by the

:19:01. > :19:05.Scottish example are pushing for state investments to correct the

:19:06. > :19:13.imbalance of the economy and counteract the dominance of the

:19:14. > :19:17.South East. Here in Newcastle, and all across the North of England,

:19:18. > :19:23.voices are raised which shout loudly in the clamour for development

:19:24. > :19:28.ending, especially for transport projects which could cost as much as

:19:29. > :19:33.15 billion. It sounds like the big northern cities might be winning

:19:34. > :19:38.that argument. Even with a Chancellor whose primary agenda has

:19:39. > :19:41.been to cut public spending. We need an ambitious plan to make the cities

:19:42. > :19:47.and towns here in this northern belt radically more connect it from East

:19:48. > :19:53.to West to create the equivalent of travelling around a single, global

:19:54. > :19:57.city. As well as fixing the roads in means considering a new High Speed

:19:58. > :20:02.Rail link. Walking along the banks of the time it feels like Cardiff

:20:03. > :20:07.Bay. Clean, post-industrial and modern. But not far from here you

:20:08. > :20:14.will find pockets of deprivation. There are plans to change that. HS2

:20:15. > :20:18.could reach this far and there is the talk of linking Manchester,

:20:19. > :20:22.Liverpool, Leeds and Hull. But that could cause problems as well as

:20:23. > :20:28.opportunities for Wales. I have arranged to meet a major

:20:29. > :20:33.entrepreneur on Tyneside. Jeffrey Ford is a man with strong views

:20:34. > :20:39.about politicians down south and the urgent needs of his own patch. We

:20:40. > :20:43.are a long way from Westminster and even further away from the minds of

:20:44. > :20:48.those supposedly in power in Westminster. How much political

:20:49. > :20:54.clout do you think you have appear as a region? You have a Scottish

:20:55. > :20:59.government and a Welsh government? Non-. Anyone in this part of the

:21:00. > :21:04.world will tell you that come the next general election 95% of the

:21:05. > :21:07.returned MPs will be Labour. The Labour Party know that so there is

:21:08. > :21:11.no point in them doing anything to help the North East. The other

:21:12. > :21:16.parties know it will be the outcome so there is no point in them doing

:21:17. > :21:21.anything to help the North East. So we are still left to fend for

:21:22. > :21:26.ourselves. But we are getting used to it and we are good at it. We are

:21:27. > :21:30.proud of the fact it is the only region in the United coming to --

:21:31. > :21:37.United Kingdom that is a net exporter. People think it is the

:21:38. > :21:43.Nissan effect. Nissan is a big net importer as well. We have done that

:21:44. > :21:51.largely on our own. Without government assistance. We obviously

:21:52. > :21:55.need help. We are not too proud to admit that. We need help and support

:21:56. > :22:03.but I don't see it coming from central government. It is not about

:22:04. > :22:06.balancing the English economy, politicians are normally referring

:22:07. > :22:14.to Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool may be. Those south of you, you

:22:15. > :22:21.could left out again. Miles away from where we are. HS2, HS three

:22:22. > :22:28.does not come as far as the North East. It is a long way off and to be

:22:29. > :22:35.excluded at this point, does not go down well. Why we are struggling now

:22:36. > :22:43.is the disillusion of the regional development agency. It is, I

:22:44. > :22:47.believe, regarded as being the most successful of the regional

:22:48. > :22:55.development agencies. They were dissolved by the Tories, pickles in

:22:56. > :23:04.particular. Labour invented them so therefore they can't be any good. In

:23:05. > :23:12.Wales, they will be saying not more regions competing. If the North goes

:23:13. > :23:17.up, we go down. It may be the case. Wales has the same degree of passion

:23:18. > :23:24.we do here. If we have to fight for our own survival, we will fight and

:23:25. > :23:29.we will survive will stop it is a sobering thought for a Welsh person

:23:30. > :23:34.that all over the UK there are rival voices claiming to be hard done by.

:23:35. > :23:42.In this climate, it seems unlikely the grand deal decided by the famous

:23:43. > :23:47.Amit formula will get any better. -- Barnett formula. Coming to the

:23:48. > :23:52.north-east is a reminder not all a reminder not all economies are

:23:53. > :23:56.created equal. In the north-east, as government spends more than it

:23:57. > :24:00.raises in taxes. There is an interesting argument in Scotland

:24:01. > :24:03.whether they would be more prosperous as an independent

:24:04. > :24:08.country. You can argue it either way. But there is one part of the

:24:09. > :24:13.country that will be better off where it to cast off the shackles of

:24:14. > :24:20.the UK. That is the Singapore of the Southeast - London. Babs that is the

:24:21. > :24:23.whole point. This argument about increasing state investment in the

:24:24. > :24:28.devolved nations and in the regions of England has enemies on the banks

:24:29. > :24:34.of the Thames at Westminster. There are figures on the rights of reddish

:24:35. > :24:39.politics who are quick to point out the prosperity of London and the

:24:40. > :24:43.south-east is already generously funding public spending elsewhere in

:24:44. > :24:50.the UK. We also starting to hear debut England as a whole needs a

:24:51. > :24:53.better deal from any future constitutional settlement the

:24:54. > :24:57.Scottish vote. I am meeting the former Secretary of State for Wales,

:24:58. > :25:03.John Redwood, who has strong views on the status of England. Can I ask

:25:04. > :25:10.you about the dog who has not barked yet, which is England. Do you sense

:25:11. > :25:14.there is English resentment at the devolution settlement as it exists

:25:15. > :25:20.now and as it could develop? England has been very tolerant, we wish to

:25:21. > :25:23.stay friends with our Welsh and Scottish neighbours and Northern

:25:24. > :25:29.Irish neighbours. We understand there are responsibilities on the

:25:30. > :25:32.largest country within the union. But something has changed and the

:25:33. > :25:38.Scottish debate has made more English people ask themselves, is

:25:39. > :25:46.this the union we want? Scotland has the right to settle it unilaterally

:25:47. > :25:52.for Scotland. We are saying, we would like a voice now. We believe

:25:53. > :25:57.Scotland has every right to decide whether they want to leave or to

:25:58. > :26:01.stay. But if we are to change the union again in their favour, maybe

:26:02. > :26:06.we should change it in our favour as well. Are you saying the English

:26:07. > :26:13.people have the same sovereign rights? Yes, it is a strange phrase

:26:14. > :26:20.because Scotland is not independent. It will only become appropriate as a

:26:21. > :26:25.phrase if they become independent. It should be the sovereign wishes of

:26:26. > :26:29.the United Kingdom people. But haps the English people will want a

:26:30. > :26:36.stronger voice and most of my English electors are saying to me on

:26:37. > :26:40.the subject, we don't want lopsided devolution any more, what is good

:26:41. > :26:46.for Scotland should also be good for Wales and England. If you start

:26:47. > :26:51.giving Scotland the power to choose its own taxes in some cases it

:26:52. > :26:53.becomes unacceptable that you might have Scottish members of the

:26:54. > :26:58.Westminster Parliament imposing taxes on Wales and in England, he

:26:59. > :27:05.could not impose on Scottish people themselves. Turning to Wales, not

:27:06. > :27:10.much has changed over 15 years since devolution. Is it a sign devolution

:27:11. > :27:15.has failed or assign in your view, the wronged party has been in

:27:16. > :27:19.charge? I start from the proposition on the whole, there are limits to

:27:20. > :27:23.what government can achieve and what makes a society prosperous and

:27:24. > :27:28.successful is the people themselves. All the government can

:27:29. > :27:33.do is create a framework and try not to get in the way too much. If the

:27:34. > :27:36.government does too much, the talented people leave. The

:27:37. > :27:45.government has to be aware of the balance. I belong to the Dummett

:27:46. > :27:52.track sick -- Democratic physician when if somebody is ill we should

:27:53. > :27:57.collect taxes from others to make sure they have a reasonable

:27:58. > :28:03.lifestyle. But if the government can drive a higher rate of growth in the

:28:04. > :28:06.economy, you will fail. The London economy has been dominant and

:28:07. > :28:11.successful along with the south-east around it. London and the South East

:28:12. > :28:16.together have the lowest spending per head than anywhere in the United

:28:17. > :28:22.Kingdom but the fastest growth rate. So it is not a magic

:28:23. > :28:25.ingredient which powers the growth in London and the South East. You

:28:26. > :28:34.talk about London, but where ever we have gone, there is this resentment

:28:35. > :28:37.in parts of the UK at the moment. Do you recognise that? There is some of

:28:38. > :28:43.that and it is very sad. When you have got some ring as successful as

:28:44. > :28:48.the London and South East economy as part of your country, you should be

:28:49. > :28:51.part of it and learn how you can benefit from it. Used intelligently

:28:52. > :28:58.it is of benefit to the United Kingdom. The only reason we can

:28:59. > :29:02.afford the higher levels of public spending in Scotland and Wales is we

:29:03. > :29:08.raise so much tax from London from these successful as Mrs and highly

:29:09. > :29:12.paid people. Large chunks of our income tax receipts come from highly

:29:13. > :29:17.paid people and they work within a few miles of where we are doing this

:29:18. > :29:22.interview today in central London. But there is another way, London and

:29:23. > :29:28.the South East provides a market and it is easier to sell into that

:29:29. > :29:31.market than try to export to China and other places around the world

:29:32. > :29:36.achieving high growth rates. Sensible people understand that

:29:37. > :29:42.having something successful in your country is good news and achieve

:29:43. > :29:46.something off the back of it. Are you thinking what he is thinking?

:29:47. > :29:50.Maybe not. But there are plenty of people in the south-east to think

:29:51. > :29:53.John Redwood has a point. The only thing that seems to unite the

:29:54. > :29:59.kingdom at a moment is nobody is happy with the way things are. Where

:30:00. > :30:06.does that leave us? Let's go to Wales and find out. Throughout this

:30:07. > :30:08.journey ya have been hairy -- hearing what people want from

:30:09. > :30:10.government and politicians. It Wales is going to have a shout in this

:30:11. > :30:18.tough and competitive environments, we could need a new partnership

:30:19. > :30:22.between our leaders and our people. Currently the political engagement

:30:23. > :30:28.we are seeing everywhere in Scotland seems conspicuously absent,

:30:29. > :30:33.especially among the young in Wales. I wish we could do politics in a

:30:34. > :30:38.better way than we do now. It would be nice to have a young, political

:30:39. > :30:43.leader who can relate to young people. I don't trust politicians

:30:44. > :30:47.and I don't think they can keep their promises they make. These

:30:48. > :30:59.young people are involved in a workshop run by a theatre company

:31:00. > :31:03.based in the Avenue Valley. Perry is the manager and she has been

:31:04. > :31:06.listening to the opinions of people in their teens and 20s who don't

:31:07. > :31:15.engage in politics all with politicians. If ever I say politics

:31:16. > :31:18.to a young person, often their response will be, I don't really

:31:19. > :31:25.know much about politics, I don't do that stuff. This is a generation who

:31:26. > :31:32.have grown up with devolution, do they differentiate between

:31:33. > :31:34.Westminster politicians, Cardiff Bay politicians and Carmarthen

:31:35. > :31:41.politicians? I don't think they feel part of the world, those suits and

:31:42. > :31:47.the people who talk on the telly. It can be a bit of a blur. Those people

:31:48. > :31:51.will do what they want to do anyway, does it make a difference? I think

:31:52. > :32:00.there are young people who are more informed, but if feels like, well,

:32:01. > :32:05.what ever they are going to do, they are going to do it anyway so I don't

:32:06. > :32:10.have a say. Then there is that this connection. Is there a vision that

:32:11. > :32:18.can bring people together? I would like to hope so. I think the only

:32:19. > :32:23.way to make that shift is to keep working and developing on that sense

:32:24. > :32:29.of belonging to something, feeling part of something, knowing your

:32:30. > :32:36.voice is valued. Knowing that if you say something someone will listen.

:32:37. > :32:41.Does it come from the bottom up, does it need leadership from the

:32:42. > :32:46.top? It can work from both ways to find that place in the middle

:32:47. > :32:52.where, we as people on the ground feel more empowered and our leaders

:32:53. > :32:58.listen to others and serve others rather than the other way around.

:32:59. > :33:02.Perhaps young people will think, if Scotland were to make such a

:33:03. > :33:08.dramatic change in the next, in this vote, then is that something that

:33:09. > :33:13.will spark more, to reinvigorate young people in this country to

:33:14. > :33:19.think, if they can have something, can we have it? It seems clear to me

:33:20. > :33:23.that Welsh politics isn't grabbing the attention of the citizens of

:33:24. > :33:28.Wales. A sense of the vision which Alvin eyes is the nation seems to be

:33:29. > :33:33.missing. I am ending might vision with two elder statesman. Rhodri

:33:34. > :33:40.Morgan and the former leader of plague Cymru. I am keen to start

:33:41. > :33:46.with the apparent failure of politics to engage the public. One

:33:47. > :33:49.thing I found interesting in Scotland is there was a level of

:33:50. > :33:55.engagement in politics there that I don't think we have ever seen in

:33:56. > :34:01.Wales. Are there lessons for Wales on how to get people engaged? You

:34:02. > :34:05.don't have to do something as dramatic as a referendum on

:34:06. > :34:09.independence to galvanise people to get off their backsides and go out

:34:10. > :34:15.to a meeting in the local church hall with yes and no represented. We

:34:16. > :34:20.certainly had nothing like this in the last referendum in 2011 which

:34:21. > :34:26.went through easily. Not enough challenge. This is seen as some in

:34:27. > :34:32.closer as to a life or death issue. As would any referendum we may or

:34:33. > :34:38.may not have over member ship of the EU. It would be a bigger issue and

:34:39. > :34:43.will galvanise England and Wales and Scotland if it was still in the UK.

:34:44. > :34:48.When you come to Wales and you think why people are not relating to

:34:49. > :34:53.politics, it is because the decision taken will not make that much

:34:54. > :34:57.difference. The amount of money we get is determined by a formula. The

:34:58. > :35:04.way in which we use the money is also defined. There or the freedom

:35:05. > :35:09.which Rhodri's government had when they were in power was on the

:35:10. > :35:13.margins. If you can make a difference with 10% of your budget,

:35:14. > :35:18.you were lucky to be able to do that. One of the things that has not

:35:19. > :35:23.happened in Wales that could help this forward, is to draw more of our

:35:24. > :35:27.policy in Wales itself will stop I would like to have seen the Labour

:35:28. > :35:32.Party in Wales growing more autonomous and developing policies

:35:33. > :35:35.in its own right. I think it is an unfair criticism. Many of the

:35:36. > :35:43.changes that were pushed through in relation to education and so on, we

:35:44. > :35:48.did not follow them. We were following what we felt were Labour

:35:49. > :35:56.Party policy and they were into new Labour policies. There was a wide

:35:57. > :36:01.divide. Wouldn't you agree in order to excite young voters and them out,

:36:02. > :36:08.it is not just a matter of doing some ring positive, but something

:36:09. > :36:14.new and fresh and vibrant? It did have elements of that as well. It is

:36:15. > :36:19.just this issue that Tony Blair was taking the new Labour Party, wasn't

:36:20. > :36:24.one we wanted to follow and we exercise our right not to follow it.

:36:25. > :36:28.I think it was one of the reasons why the 2003 election is one where

:36:29. > :36:33.we did get a response from the public in Wales because they

:36:34. > :36:37.understood the difference between Blairism on the one side and Morgan

:36:38. > :36:41.on the other side. Between new Labour and classic Labour. Making a

:36:42. > :36:47.difference improve the chances of engaging the public, but all minds

:36:48. > :36:51.will be on the difference the Scottish vote will make, one way or

:36:52. > :36:57.the other. Let's imagine there was a yes vote. What does it mean for

:36:58. > :37:00.Wales? The most obvious thing is Scotland takes its share of the

:37:01. > :37:05.Barnett formula away from the equation. Therefore funding itself

:37:06. > :37:12.and we will have better opportunities to get a proper reform

:37:13. > :37:17.of our midst. Up the moment Scotland is doing well out of Barnett but

:37:18. > :37:24.Wales is doing badly. But with the loss of Scotland, would it also mean

:37:25. > :37:30.Wales would be facing up to a right of centre government from

:37:31. > :37:39.Westminster almost ad infinitum? There are elections that Labour

:37:40. > :37:43.would still have won in 19 66. What I believe it would do to Wales if

:37:44. > :37:50.Scotland votes yes is give the confidence to look in those terms

:37:51. > :37:52.ourselves. If Scotland succeeds in negotiating its own place within the

:37:53. > :37:55.European Union, which I think is fundamental to the whole project,

:37:56. > :38:05.that will be a boost for those of us in Wales. Rhodri Morgan, do you

:38:06. > :38:07.think people in Wales with the inspired by Scotland? It would

:38:08. > :38:14.change the political geography of Great Britain. If you take one part

:38:15. > :38:17.away it is one half of the non-English part of the United

:38:18. > :38:24.Kingdom and having no counterweight to the dominance of England. That

:38:25. > :38:31.puts Wales and Northern Ireland into some difficulties. What does it do

:38:32. > :38:38.about consciousness of Wales as a nation if Scotland was to leave

:38:39. > :38:43.Ashton Mark well, people would think about it. I think they would

:38:44. > :38:47.recognise the different history, geography and economics. We don't

:38:48. > :38:50.have North Sea oil which is keeping this national dream of

:38:51. > :38:57.self-sufficiency going. Certainly in Alex Salmond's mind, that is his big

:38:58. > :39:00.obsession. If you gave him control of North Sea oil he would not be

:39:01. > :39:09.worrying about independence in the sense of a separate member. It is

:39:10. > :39:16.North Sea oil and gas he wants control of, because that is what has

:39:17. > :39:21.given Scotland such buoyancy economically since the mid-70s and

:39:22. > :39:25.what we lack. Once people realise that, they realise if Wales was

:39:26. > :39:32.independent, how would we pay the pensions? Let's look at happens if

:39:33. > :39:36.it is a no vote and all sorts of problems have been made by the

:39:37. > :39:41.Unionists parties. Do you think those promises will be capped or

:39:42. > :39:46.will it be like 1979? It is very easy to make promises that are not

:39:47. > :39:53.quite 100% watertight in the run-up to a referendum and give hints and

:39:54. > :39:58.make suggestions. Then, when the threat has gone, it disappears. I

:39:59. > :40:02.have heard numerous people talking in Westminster, right this is the

:40:03. > :40:06.last referendum we will have. If they can nail the thing there cannot

:40:07. > :40:11.be another referendum call by the Scottish Government, they will feel

:40:12. > :40:17.freer to abandon any promises we have got to stop I would not trust

:40:18. > :40:22.them further than I can kick them. If the three party leaders have

:40:23. > :40:32.said, as they have in early August, but there will be one definition of

:40:33. > :40:38.devolution, using Northern Ireland as a template, so anything Northern

:40:39. > :40:41.Ireland has got with devolution and partial devolution, plus a model of

:40:42. > :40:45.increased powers to raise and lower income tax, it will make the

:40:46. > :40:50.Scottish Parliament more responsible. It will also meet

:40:51. > :40:56.national aspirations. I don't see why that would not go through.

:40:57. > :40:58.There's not that much difference between the Alex Salmond version of

:40:59. > :41:06.independent where you would still be in NATO, still have the BBC and so

:41:07. > :41:13.on. Devo Max. It is not actually as black and white as it seems. I am

:41:14. > :41:17.certain it is a spectrum. That spectrum blends into each other and

:41:18. > :41:22.it varies with regards to which territory you are talking about and

:41:23. > :41:29.it varies with regards to function. There are some functions, because of

:41:30. > :41:37.their nation -- talk about the environment. So-called independent

:41:38. > :41:41.nation state each with its army and closed border, it is passive. You

:41:42. > :41:52.have more clout by pooling your power into a nation state of 63

:41:53. > :41:56.million people in terms of NATO and what seed should get and what power

:41:57. > :42:03.you play in the UN and the EU, then you would as small nation state. The

:42:04. > :42:08.Scandinavians and the Baltics play a significant role, if they are clever

:42:09. > :42:16.enough. But it can never be the same role as Britain, France, Germany,

:42:17. > :42:20.Italy and Spain. Is it a question of whether the UK or the rest of the UK

:42:21. > :42:25.and Scotland separately will remain part of the European Union? If we

:42:26. > :42:30.are outside the European Union we are talking about a different ball

:42:31. > :42:34.game. Within the European Union it make sense, we can find the right

:42:35. > :42:38.level and an effective voice in relation to our neighbours around

:42:39. > :42:42.Britain and also through to the European Union. If we are outside, I

:42:43. > :42:47.am not sure I like the United Kingdom that could herald. Our elder

:42:48. > :42:54.statesman are animated by the challenges of the changing UK. But

:42:55. > :42:59.it's not an urgency you find amongst the Welsh population or in many

:43:00. > :43:05.discussions in Cardiff Bay. It does not feel Wales is on the front foot

:43:06. > :43:10.in shaping our future politically. The future is another country, or so

:43:11. > :43:15.they say. In this case could literally be true. What struck me in

:43:16. > :43:19.Scotland is there was a fair degree of consensus of the sort of country

:43:20. > :43:24.they wanted. A country more equal, socially democratic and outward

:43:25. > :43:27.looking. In Wales, we seem to be arguing all the time about

:43:28. > :43:34.government structures without a clear picture of the Wales we want.

:43:35. > :43:35.While that remains the case, we will probably continue travelling in

:43:36. > :43:45.Scotland's wake.