EU Referendum Debate - NI Decides

:00:18. > :00:32.Hello there. Welcome to the BBC and our live TV debate on the EU

:00:33. > :00:36.referendum from Northern Ireland. Decision day is a week tomorrow. The

:00:37. > :00:40.question do you want to remain? Do you want the UK to remain in the

:00:41. > :00:44.European Union or do you want to leave? We have been discussing this

:00:45. > :00:48.for weeks now. A man who will help us with the facts and figures on

:00:49. > :00:51.either side of it is our economics and Business Editor, John Campbell.

:00:52. > :00:55.A lot to discuss, isn't there? There is. Passionate opinions on all

:00:56. > :00:59.sides. Sometimes the facts are hard to come by. As much as possible

:01:00. > :01:04.tonight I want to concentrate on bringing you the facts. They will

:01:05. > :01:10.try to do that. This debate has been raging right throughout the UK. The

:01:11. > :01:14.United States wants a strong United Kingdom as a partner. The United

:01:15. > :01:20.Kingdom is at its best when it's helping to lead a strong Europe. I

:01:21. > :01:26.want a better deal for the people of this country. To save them money and

:01:27. > :01:31.to take back control. The EU has changed so much since people voted

:01:32. > :01:36.way back in 1975. It is now, for me, about whether we want to control our

:01:37. > :01:40.own country. The plain uncomfortable truth is, that the awe unity of the

:01:41. > :01:45.United Kingdom itself is on the ballot paper. It's very well to talk

:01:46. > :01:50.about constitutional uncertainty in the United Kingdom when we are

:01:51. > :01:53.handing away our sovereignty to Brussels all the time. If you vote

:01:54. > :01:57.to leave the EU the country will be poorer and the families in the

:01:58. > :02:00.country will be poorer. Even if sterling were to fall a few

:02:01. > :02:05.percentage points after Brexit, so what? It would be bad for our

:02:06. > :02:11.farming community and our voluntary sector, detrimental to relationships

:02:12. > :02:20.in the island of Ireland. There's no saving from leaving the EU there's a

:02:21. > :02:26.cost. Don't leave it. It will be a patriotic renewal. Well, let's look

:02:27. > :02:31.at our panel tonight in the Leave corner, DUP MP, Sammy Wilson,

:02:32. > :02:36.Conservative MP, Daniel Hannan. From the Remain side, SDLP MP, Claire

:02:37. > :02:40.Hanna and the former Downing Street Director of Communications, Alistair

:02:41. > :02:45.Campbell. We will get into the audience straightaway. Mervyn. Good

:02:46. > :02:48.evening. Research indicates that Northern Ireland exports to the EU

:02:49. > :02:52.have almost halved over the course of the last 10 years whilst exports

:02:53. > :02:56.to the rest of the world have increased by more than 40% to 70er %

:02:57. > :03:01.of our exports. In these circumstances, would Northern

:03:02. > :03:08.Ireland not do better voting to leave the EU and seek our fortunes

:03:09. > :03:12.outside? One for you straightaway, Claire Hanna.

:03:13. > :03:16.APPLAUSE. The fact is we do trade. We trade with many people we don't

:03:17. > :03:22.just trade to Europe. It's a fundamental part, particularly for

:03:23. > :03:27.the likes of our food sector. We are not looking to ship out millions of

:03:28. > :03:30.product. We are selling to high quality buyers. That is exactly what

:03:31. > :03:34.Europe provides. It's the most stable market in the world. 500

:03:35. > :03:41.million people we do it without tariffs. Invest NI is about selling

:03:42. > :03:47.our wares around the world. We are not just selling in the EU. It's a

:03:48. > :03:52.huge economic gamble a leap in the dark It's not an economic gamble.

:03:53. > :03:57.The figures show the positive side of leaving the EU. First of all, our

:03:58. > :04:03.trade is more being orientated towards the rest of the world. That

:04:04. > :04:09.is where the growing economies are unvettered by the economic

:04:10. > :04:12.restrictions in the EU. Secondly, we are curtailed in developing those

:04:13. > :04:16.relationships if we want trade agreements with other parts of the

:04:17. > :04:21.world the growing parts of the world, the world sympathetic to us

:04:22. > :04:31.because of common language and law - Take years to negotiate. We don't

:04:32. > :04:35.negotiate. He When we joined the EU the countries that now make it up

:04:36. > :04:39.with 36% of the world economy, now it's 17% of the economy. We need to

:04:40. > :04:45.lift our eyes to more distant horizons. I was here last week at

:04:46. > :04:55.the Harbour Office, those were people with a a global outlook -

:04:56. > :05:00.There were manufacturers. Nothing to worry about then, Alastair Campbell?

:05:01. > :05:03.It's great we can trade with India and with China and with Japan and

:05:04. > :05:07.all these other countries, the question is on the ballot paper is -

:05:08. > :05:14.are we better off in or outside the European Union? The reality is that

:05:15. > :05:15.Northern Ireland, I think, is disproportionately will be

:05:16. > :05:20.disproportionately adversely affected if we leave the European

:05:21. > :05:23.Union partly because of the extra funding that comes to Northern

:05:24. > :05:26.Ireland from the European Union, but also because of the importance of

:05:27. > :05:29.relations with the Republic of Ireland which of course is an

:05:30. > :05:35.important part of the European Union. I think this idea - it's a

:05:36. > :05:43.myth we will be able to create these great new trade agreements. Hang on.

:05:44. > :05:53.Over the last 10 years the Chinese economy has doubled in size - It's

:05:54. > :05:59.the same size it was 10 years ago. Hold on. One at a time. It there are

:06:00. > :06:03.growth areas and things will - I was at the same debate. Manufacturer

:06:04. > :06:07.after manufacturer stood up and said they knew how difficult it would be

:06:08. > :06:10.if they left because, particularly if you are producing stuff, you

:06:11. > :06:14.don't necessarily want to ship it. There are costs to put it to China

:06:15. > :06:20.and New Zealand and other places like that. It's not like with like.

:06:21. > :06:23.I will let you come back Sammy. I promise after we hear from John

:06:24. > :06:28.Campbell with the facts and figures behind this. Northern Ireland's

:06:29. > :06:32.contribution to the EU budget last year was an estimated ?375 million.

:06:33. > :06:39.In terms of what comes back, subsidies for farming and fishing

:06:40. > :06:43.alongside what are called structural funds worth ?230 million. Peace and

:06:44. > :06:49.cross-border funds added ?50 million. We will stop getting much

:06:50. > :06:51.of that money after 2020. There are science, education and research

:06:52. > :06:56.funds. They are at least ?10 million a year. At a local level we are

:06:57. > :07:01.still beneficiaries of the EU or, at the very least, break even. The

:07:02. > :07:07.Leave side say in the result of a Brexit the UK Government could

:07:08. > :07:16.afford to replace those EU funds and add more even. The Remain side say

:07:17. > :07:20.that they may not choose to spend it here. The economically important

:07:21. > :07:25.aspect of the EU is the single market. Companies can sell their

:07:26. > :07:29.goods and services right across the EU without tariffs, quotas or other

:07:30. > :07:36.restrictions. That's important for Northern Ireland. 60% of our exports

:07:37. > :07:41.go to the EU. With the most recent annual figures show manufacturing

:07:42. > :07:45.exports to the EU down by 4%. Non-EU trade up by 28%. What happens to

:07:46. > :07:51.that trade will depend on what sort of deal the UK could get with the EU

:07:52. > :07:55.after a Brexit. The Leave side say any deal with allow businesses to

:07:56. > :08:01.shrug off EU red tape. The Remain side point out the UK is one of the

:08:02. > :08:07.least regulated major economies. Have you, Sammy Wilson, got a

:08:08. > :08:11.coherent vision for trade with the rest of the EU post-Brexit? I have.

:08:12. > :08:17.Spell it out. If we look at the figures John quoted there. First of

:08:18. > :08:21.all, we are now no longer net recipients of money from the EU. His

:08:22. > :08:28.figures would indicate that - Northern Ireland? His figures would

:08:29. > :08:34.indicate that this year we are net recipients of ?6 million. The peace

:08:35. > :08:38.money will disappear by 2020. The farming subsidies fell last year by

:08:39. > :08:45.?120 million. That is why we have you here. Are we net recipients in

:08:46. > :08:47.Northern Ireland? As far as I'm concerned we are net recipients at

:08:48. > :08:53.the moment. APPLAUSE.

:08:54. > :08:55.. John, on the BBC website you accept that by 2020 farming

:08:56. > :08:59.subsidies will have fallen further. The peace money will have

:09:00. > :09:07.disappeared. That our contributions to the EU will go up and, therefore,

:09:08. > :09:14.by 2020 we will be net contributors to the EU. There are other things I

:09:15. > :09:20.didn't include, road fundings. So there are - I think that was quite a

:09:21. > :09:25.conservative view I gave of how we are net recipients. You can't argue

:09:26. > :09:32.we aren't - Not a conservative view, John. It's an an inaccurate view.

:09:33. > :09:41.You based that ?374 million figure on a British contribution of ?12.9

:09:42. > :09:45.billion to the EU it's ?18 billion. Talking about accurate and

:09:46. > :09:50.inaccurate views. Are you standing over the ?350 million a week

:09:51. > :09:55.Vlastaed across a bus that you claim we are sending out. You claim we are

:09:56. > :10:00.sending out - That is the gross amount, some returned in the rebate

:10:01. > :10:06.and spent here. Look at the bus. Where does it say "gross" on that

:10:07. > :10:13.bus? Maybe it's's gross in a different way, I don't know. Where

:10:14. > :10:18.does it say? What is the difference between gross and net salary. What

:10:19. > :10:23.is basic rate income tax. Do you say it's 20p in the ?1. Do you say, it's

:10:24. > :10:28.zero because we get it all back in-roads, schools and hospitals?

:10:29. > :10:34.It's normal in public life we quote the gross figure, which is what you

:10:35. > :10:40.are actually paying. Hold on. Sit there and tell me we send out ?350

:10:41. > :10:45.million a week? We don't physically ship the money over. That appears in

:10:46. > :10:48.your bank account as debited some is returned. It doesn't. No it,

:10:49. > :10:56.doesn't. It's often - No, it doesn't. On buying loyalty of these

:10:57. > :11:05.quangos you have been quoting. ?350 million a week - ?357 million. Even

:11:06. > :11:11.before you get to net and gross, ?276 spent because the rebate is

:11:12. > :11:17.taken out before we send the money. It's debited then returned. Can I

:11:18. > :11:23.make a point here. This is not like we are paying in money and getting

:11:24. > :11:27.nothing back. Our membership of the European Union gives us enormous

:11:28. > :11:31.economic benefits. The idea that this is some kind of cheque we have

:11:32. > :11:36.to pay out. The other line, I heard you in the preample telling the

:11:37. > :11:41.audience not to call any of us liars, that ?350 million on the bus

:11:42. > :11:46.is a straight-forward lie. What's more it's also a lie...

:11:47. > :11:52.APPLAUSE That comes from Her Majesty's

:11:53. > :11:58.Treasury, the figures for EU finances for 2015. It's not a figure

:11:59. > :12:01.made up by Dan or me or by the Brexit campaign. That is an official

:12:02. > :12:07.Government figure whether you like it or not. Without context

:12:08. > :12:11.whatsoever It. It can't be spent on the National Health Service. The

:12:12. > :12:14.idea that Daniel Hannan, who wants to privatise the National Health

:12:15. > :12:17.Service, gives a damn about investing more in the National

:12:18. > :12:20.Health Service, forget it. We get control back. If we leave the

:12:21. > :12:24.European Union, farming and fishing, the two biggest components John

:12:25. > :12:29.mentioned, will be devolved directly to Stormont. The question is do we

:12:30. > :12:37.trust our own representatives to run these things - It's playing fast and

:12:38. > :12:41.loose with statistics. It's the price of everything and the value of

:12:42. > :12:48.nothing there. Is a lot more comes from the European Union. It's not

:12:49. > :12:51.paying fast and loose are with statistics it's a Government figure.

:12:52. > :12:56.They all have one thing in common, the impact will be big and bad.

:12:57. > :13:01.Presume we come out of Europe. If there is a 1% drop in GDP it would

:13:02. > :13:04.wipe out the saving. The Conservatives will spend money on

:13:05. > :13:08.anything except here. Daniel Hannan who said that the NHS was a 60 year

:13:09. > :13:13.mistake is not the person who I think will spend it on our public

:13:14. > :13:15.services. We are handing this over to -

:13:16. > :13:18.APPLAUSE This is a project of the hard right.

:13:19. > :13:22.The hard left are joining in as well. They have different views. One

:13:23. > :13:26.will be disappointed. I think it's the hard left. One person who will

:13:27. > :13:31.lose his job, definitely, if we leave is he m me. I will lose a

:13:32. > :13:35.well-paid job. I would not be inviting people to fire me if I'm

:13:36. > :13:42.not confident it would be in the economic interests of the country as

:13:43. > :13:47.a whole and there would be alternative employment for newly

:13:48. > :13:53.unemployed MEPS. You are a smart, educated man and golden apples in

:13:54. > :13:58.the world and you make jokes about being made redundant - I'm not a

:13:59. > :14:01.real person? You can joke but other people don't have a choice.

:14:02. > :14:04.Go-ahead. Daniel Hannan hit the nail in the head. Do we trust our

:14:05. > :14:07.politicians to deal with this after we leave the European Union the

:14:08. > :14:12.answer across the board is of course we don't. Do we trust Sammy Wilson

:14:13. > :14:16.the ex-Finance Minister to deal with our revenue after we leave the

:14:17. > :14:17.European Union. I don't think so? The entire campaign has come down to

:14:18. > :14:29.an issue of trust. The You have a finance minister here

:14:30. > :14:35.anyway. Do you trust unelected bureaucrats and politicians? That is

:14:36. > :14:40.the argument for Remain. The point I make is you would rather have... The

:14:41. > :14:44.point I'm making is this campaign has come down to a question of

:14:45. > :14:47.trust.. We just believe campaign and take a step into the unknown, or

:14:48. > :14:54.trust the Remain campaign? We showed you the bus slogan, sending over 350

:14:55. > :14:58.million a year. They didn't tell you on the bus can I have written the

:14:59. > :15:03.figures, we get 88 million of it back before sending a penny out,

:15:04. > :15:07.88,000,002 farmers forced up 27 million more on research, none of

:15:08. > :15:14.that is on the bus. 9 million to the fisheries. And we get a lot back in

:15:15. > :15:23.private rebates. Enough to wipe out the entire austerities programme. 42

:15:24. > :15:26.million gross, 85 million in the 2010-2015 Parliament, enough to wipe

:15:27. > :15:32.out the whole of the cuts programme. Just to clear up finally the number

:15:33. > :15:36.on the bus. We will go to Sir Andrew Dillon at, the chair of the UK stats

:15:37. > :15:41.authority, the man with the numbers. He says the continued use of the

:15:42. > :15:44.gross figure, three had and 50 million in the context implied as a

:15:45. > :15:47.net figure is misleading and undermines trust in official

:15:48. > :15:52.statistics, that's not me, the head of the UK stats authority. The UK is

:15:53. > :15:57.a net contributor to the EU budget, nobody is arguing with that, so why

:15:58. > :16:03.in Bent this figure which Sir Andrew Dillon at says is wrong. For the

:16:04. > :16:09.same reason why it if somebody asks what your council tax is, you say

:16:10. > :16:13.what it is. To be fair to Daniel Hannan, in his heart he probably

:16:14. > :16:16.doesn't want to justify it but he's part of the campaign and feels he

:16:17. > :16:22.has to. Boris Johnson made account deleted decision to lead the

:16:23. > :16:27.campaign, partly because he has his eyes on being the next leader of the

:16:28. > :16:31.Conservatives because David Cameron will go. I don't enjoy talking about

:16:32. > :16:34.the 350 million but he loves it when talking about the tactics of the

:16:35. > :16:38.campaign because it means we're not talking about the substance, better

:16:39. > :16:43.off in or out? If we got back to that we could hopefully put a bit

:16:44. > :16:48.more analysis in. The substance to the economy is that regardless of

:16:49. > :16:52.whether it is a net or a gross figure, we do make a huge

:16:53. > :17:01.contribution every year to the EU. We lose out on... We lose... We lose

:17:02. > :17:04.out on trading with other parts of the world, Switzerland has trade

:17:05. > :17:08.agreements with five times more than the EU has with growing parts of the

:17:09. > :17:15.world, Chile has agreements with ten times more than the EU. And then we

:17:16. > :17:20.are burdened with, and billions of pounds of red tape stifling small

:17:21. > :17:27.industry... Let me answer the question. Claire Hanna, your party

:17:28. > :17:31.used to tell us that Northern Ireland should be in the single

:17:32. > :17:34.currency, didn't you? The Eurozone, you are wrong, weren't you? There

:17:35. > :17:40.were a number of tests but this isn't about the euro. Let's comeback

:17:41. > :17:45.to... I'm coming back to this. That is not the question. I put the

:17:46. > :17:49.questions on the table. APPLAUSE

:17:50. > :17:54.Here is the question on the table tonight. Is it on the ballot paper?

:17:55. > :18:00.Here is what the SDLP said... You don't really want me to show this,

:18:01. > :18:05.do you? Let's have a look at this. The SDLP has long been committed to

:18:06. > :18:08.the EU and believes that Northern Ireland increasingly loses out the

:18:09. > :18:13.longer we remain outside the Eurozone. OK, well, for a start...

:18:14. > :18:19.APPLAUSE 14 years ago was a very long time in

:18:20. > :18:27.economic times. Before a number of global shocks. This isn't about

:18:28. > :18:32.joining the euro... Did your party make a mistake? I need to come back

:18:33. > :18:36.on a couple of things. Sorry, we will move on after we deal with

:18:37. > :18:41.this. Was that a complete misjudgement by your party? It was

:18:42. > :18:46.of a different time... You are saying exactly the same thing now.

:18:47. > :18:51.Not just you guys, but the people who are now telling us that if we

:18:52. > :18:53.are outside the EU there will be disinvestment, slow growth and

:18:54. > :19:00.unemployment, said exactly the same thing. It wasn't just that those

:19:01. > :19:07.things didn't happen to us... It's just not that being outside the

:19:08. > :19:13.euro... I'm going to come back. See this thing about red tape. I don't

:19:14. > :19:16.want to have lead paint on my children's toys, these are some of

:19:17. > :19:19.the regulations that Europe has brought in. You talk about weaker

:19:20. > :19:25.trade and growth with South Korea has grown, as if they'd like an

:19:26. > :19:32.increase with their biggest company or their smallest customer. The fact

:19:33. > :19:37.of the matter is that many of those who are arguing now that we should

:19:38. > :19:40.stay in the European Union, many of those who you have cited and

:19:41. > :19:45.Alastair Campbell will site, got it wrong about the exchange rate

:19:46. > :19:50.mechanism and the Eurozone and they are now using it employing the same

:19:51. > :19:56.arguments about staying in the EU -- cite. If you want to talk about slow

:19:57. > :20:03.learners, Sammy, there are a lot of things that could have dawned on you

:20:04. > :20:07.many years ago if you want to talk about slow learners. Colin, you are

:20:08. > :20:12.a businessman and on the Remain side, tell us why? Because where I'm

:20:13. > :20:17.based in Newry there is project fear where we are, the implications for

:20:18. > :20:24.Brexit. Our economy has been transformed because the border has

:20:25. > :20:30.disappeared as a practical barrier to trade and movement of people. I

:20:31. > :20:34.spoke to Boris Johnson in a partisan speech by Theresa Villiers when she

:20:35. > :20:38.hosted him, and asked him the question is, will there be a hard

:20:39. > :20:44.border on the island of Ireland and he couldn't answer. What was the

:20:45. > :20:48.answer? The answer is there will be. If it is not on the island of

:20:49. > :20:52.Ireland it will be on the island of Britain. We are going to talk about

:20:53. > :20:56.the border later in the programme. There is no doubt that Ireland and

:20:57. > :21:00.the UK want to continue with the Common travel area and work closely

:21:01. > :21:04.together. I think everybody here has got a very dim view of the EU if

:21:05. > :21:09.they think the EU will introduce sanctions against the UK that will

:21:10. > :21:12.destroy the economy in southern Ireland. I don't believe that will

:21:13. > :21:15.happen and if the people in southern island think that will happen they

:21:16. > :21:21.will be forced to leave the United Kingdom to keep their economy

:21:22. > :21:28.afloat. Even the unions are split on this, right? The union is

:21:29. > :21:32.representative and as public opinion has split the unions have a

:21:33. > :21:36.difference of opinion. I wouldn't say we are divided. Europe is not

:21:37. > :21:39.perfect, we're not going to say it is perfect. It is anything but

:21:40. > :21:45.perfect and it hasn't delivered everything we wanted. What is your

:21:46. > :21:48.top line for remaining in in terms of the economy? For jobs, workers'

:21:49. > :21:56.rights and peace in Northern Ireland. You are from another union.

:21:57. > :22:00.The hard left, or socialist as we would call it, we would take a

:22:01. > :22:03.different opinion. Our measure of the economic success or failure of

:22:04. > :22:06.the European Union is the country we live in because we are in the

:22:07. > :22:10.European Union and frankly it is a disaster at the moment economically,

:22:11. > :22:13.the European Union is a financial disaster and an economic disaster.

:22:14. > :22:19.APPLAUSE If I could finish my point. Quickly.

:22:20. > :22:23.The public doesn't believe a word coming out of either campaign, the

:22:24. > :22:27.Remain or the Brexit campaign and that is a real problem. The last

:22:28. > :22:31.thing I would say, Stephen, is there is a huge issue coming down the

:22:32. > :22:35.tracks, the TTIP negotiation, which will mean the demolition of our

:22:36. > :22:41.public services and nobody is addressing that issue. I just want

:22:42. > :22:46.to make a point. If you look at what has happened in terms of the vanity

:22:47. > :22:49.project that the EU elite are pursuing, they've condemned the

:22:50. > :22:57.millions of young people in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy to

:22:58. > :23:05.unemployment. We are moving on... We are going to talk about immigration

:23:06. > :23:09.next. Is John Campbell again. One of the fundamental principles of

:23:10. > :23:13.EU membership is that all EU citizens should have freedom of

:23:14. > :23:17.movement and as a result more than 3 million people from elsewhere in the

:23:18. > :23:21.EU are living in the UK. The last sentence from 2011 recorded 83,000

:23:22. > :23:27.people from elsewhere in the EU living here. 37,000 of the group

:23:28. > :23:30.were from the Republic. The vast majority of EU citizens say they are

:23:31. > :23:36.here to work and the figures bear that out. In 2015 people from EU

:23:37. > :23:40.countries in the UK had a 78% implement rate compared to a 73%

:23:41. > :23:47.rate among UK born people. Overall, the evidence suggests the economic

:23:48. > :23:49.impacts of EU migration are relatively small and mostly

:23:50. > :23:52.positive. For example, local employers have found it useful to be

:23:53. > :23:58.able to recruit more widely and fill skills gaps. At there is also some

:23:59. > :24:01.evidence which shows higher migration puts downward pressure on

:24:02. > :24:06.the wages of the least skilled workers. If the UK leaves it would

:24:07. > :24:10.be able to end the freedom of movement, but that would come at a

:24:11. > :24:14.price. It would mean that the UK would be highly unlikely to have

:24:15. > :24:19.access to this market on anything like the terms it has now. For

:24:20. > :24:25.example, Norway is not in the EU but still accepts freedom of movement as

:24:26. > :24:29.the price of market access. Alastair Campbell, immigration is

:24:30. > :24:34.the weak point in your campaign, isn't it? Look, I think you are

:24:35. > :24:38.talking in this campaign about people like me and Claire, who

:24:39. > :24:41.decided on one side and Daniel Im Sammy who decided on the other and

:24:42. > :24:44.millions of people in the middle who will decide fourballs also serve

:24:45. > :24:49.reasons, and immigration is certainly a factor within the

:24:50. > :24:53.debate. I think that one of the reasons why the Leave campaign are

:24:54. > :24:56.really hammering the issue of migration as heavily as they can is

:24:57. > :25:03.because they know they have lost the economic argument. However, just

:25:04. > :25:06.addressing the issue of immigration, it's interesting, I saw Nicola

:25:07. > :25:10.Sturgeon and it is weird in this debate how we end up quoting

:25:11. > :25:14.favourably people normally on the opposite sides, but Nicola Sturgeon

:25:15. > :25:17.made a very good point, I thought. We keep going on about immigrants,

:25:18. > :25:21.these migrants who come over and take our jobs and so forth. The

:25:22. > :25:25.British people that we have working in the European union countries, we

:25:26. > :25:36.call them expats and there are 2.2 million. We are back here to the

:25:37. > :25:39.subject of the Single Market. Stephen, you quoted at Clare

:25:40. > :25:43.something the SDLP said a while back. I'd like to quote something

:25:44. > :25:48.that Daniel Hannan said just a year ago. He said: the idea is being

:25:49. > :25:51.absurdly propagated that withdrawing from the political institutions of

:25:52. > :25:55.the EU means withdrawing from the Single Market. No one in Brussels is

:25:56. > :25:59.suggesting such a thing and nor is any British Eurosceptic suggesting

:26:00. > :26:03.such a thing and that is exact what the Leave campaign are suggesting.

:26:04. > :26:13.Do you want to respond, Daniel Hannan? In every

:26:14. > :26:21.Nantes -- non-European Union country. We would be uniquely

:26:22. > :26:24.excluded from market access on the same terms that Guernsey and

:26:25. > :26:29.Macedonia, Monaco and Montenegro and any other non-European Union state

:26:30. > :26:33.has. You don't know that with any certainty. It is or was better to go

:26:34. > :26:36.with what you can observe and if you can see that every other country

:26:37. > :26:39.with the sole exception of Belarus in Europe is part of the common

:26:40. > :26:44.market why would we be the only ones uniquely penalised, especially when

:26:45. > :26:52.we are big net purchasers of EU goods? On the day we left we would

:26:53. > :26:56.become their civil biggest market. -- single biggest market. It is

:26:57. > :27:01.extraordinary, you have made an entire career out of saying that

:27:02. > :27:05.this European Union thing and this Commission thing and all of these

:27:06. > :27:08.European countries are determined to do Britain down. But for some reason

:27:09. > :27:11.the minute that we pull out they are going to roll over and have their

:27:12. > :27:19.tummies tickled and do everything we ask them to do. They will act on

:27:20. > :27:30.self-interest, Alastair and since they export to us 290 million euros

:27:31. > :27:37.worth of goods and services every year and we export 220 back to them

:27:38. > :27:40.they have a trade surplus with us, that 6.5 million people are

:27:41. > :27:44.dependent on jobs for selling goods into the United Kingdom, they will

:27:45. > :27:51.not cut off their nose despite their face, they need us. Let me come into

:27:52. > :27:55.the audience, the man with glasses. Asked Campbell talks about making a

:27:56. > :28:00.career, he's made a career of giving people meaningless rhetoric over

:28:01. > :28:06.years and years, it is not grounded in any fact, it is just fantasy. Do

:28:07. > :28:10.you have a point to make? Why don't you make it? Last year we had 24,000

:28:11. > :28:18.farms registered in Northern Ireland and 15 years ago we had 32,000, OK?

:28:19. > :28:21.What will you do when you lose subsidies for the farmers? We will

:28:22. > :28:27.look at farming later in the programme. We are talking about

:28:28. > :28:31.people losing their jobs. People who have worked for Cadbury who lost the

:28:32. > :28:37.jobs when the factory moved to Poland with EU Grant Murray. People

:28:38. > :28:47.who lost their jobs to Turkey with EU Grant Murray making the Ford

:28:48. > :28:55.transit -- grant money. Go-ahead. Can I just say to the Leave, Daniel

:28:56. > :28:58.and Sammy, one of the most prized institutions in this country is the

:28:59. > :29:03.NHS and that relies on foreign nationals coming in to work, our

:29:04. > :29:07.nurses and our doctors. OK? Our tourist industry relies on foreign

:29:08. > :29:11.nationals. Can you honestly tell me that if we leave the European Union

:29:12. > :29:16.you are going to find those doctors and those nurses, those cleaners...

:29:17. > :29:20.No, listen, where will you find them? The important thing about the

:29:21. > :29:25.immigration policy is if we were to leave the EU we would then have

:29:26. > :29:31.control over immigration policy, we would decide what skills shortage

:29:32. > :29:34.there was. Spell out what you want, more or less? It depends on the

:29:35. > :29:39.needs of the economy. How much would that cost? It depends on the needs

:29:40. > :29:43.of the economy. If you have a shortage of doctors, if you have a

:29:44. > :29:47.shortage of people with certain skills, of course you would seek

:29:48. > :29:50.them from outside. The important thing is this: you would not have

:29:51. > :29:53.the uncontrolled immigration that we have at present which is putting

:29:54. > :29:56.pressure on the health service, housing, education.

:29:57. > :30:04.I will let you come back in one second. Where are you going to get

:30:05. > :30:08.them from, Sammy. The doctors we have here and train in Northern

:30:09. > :30:13.Ireland are going to Australia. They are going to China. They are going

:30:14. > :30:19.to America. The nurses that we have here trained here, going abroad. You

:30:20. > :30:24.are not going to get the nurses who are trained here staying and you're

:30:25. > :30:32.not going to get them coming from - OK. Listen to his reply. From the

:30:33. > :30:36.Philippines. Exclude those people who come from Europe. Let him reply

:30:37. > :30:41.to you. Bring people from even further afield. Go on. Madness. You

:30:42. > :30:44.would do the same as they do in Australia. You would look and see

:30:45. > :31:00.where the skill shortages. Do you want to hear the answer? Do

:31:01. > :31:05.you want to hear the answer? Will you let Sammy reply, sir? You needed

:31:06. > :31:10.to broaden your horizons. Let him reply. Then you can come back. Do

:31:11. > :31:13.the same as they do in other countries where they operate a

:31:14. > :31:16.points system. You look and see what skill shortages they have. People

:31:17. > :31:21.apply to come into the are you country. Awarded points on the other

:31:22. > :31:24.hand the basis of that, they are accepted into the country as

:31:25. > :31:29.immigrants because you know you've got jobs for them. You know you have

:31:30. > :31:31.the skill shortages and you marry your immigration policy with the

:31:32. > :31:37.needs of your economy. That makes sense.

:31:38. > :31:40.APPLAUSE With this great Australian model you

:31:41. > :31:45.are talking about, Sammy, hasn't immigration gone up? Doubled.

:31:46. > :31:52.Australia had skill shortages. It's gone up. If there were skill

:31:53. > :31:56.shortages, yes, you would. What we should be doing here - if we have

:31:57. > :32:00.shortages of nurses we train our own nurses. Finance we have shortages of

:32:01. > :32:03.doctors we train our own people to be doctors. If we can't fill the

:32:04. > :32:09.gaps we bring them from outside. Go on. Migration is market sensitive.

:32:10. > :32:12.People come where the job opportunities are. The same way as

:32:13. > :32:16.people from all over this island for centuries have gone to other places

:32:17. > :32:20.for jobs. Migration is good for our economy. That is something you have

:32:21. > :32:27.been trying to block. In Northern Ireland 1.2 billion added in. Most

:32:28. > :32:30.of the workers coming in are young, strong people who pay in. You tell

:32:31. > :32:35.us people who have lost their jobs have had - Let me speak. They pay in

:32:36. > :32:40.taxation far more more they No point shout use. Ing. We can't hear you.

:32:41. > :32:47.We will bring a mic and you can speak. You do not want an economy

:32:48. > :32:50.based on labour shortages. No-one will invest if people aren't there

:32:51. > :32:54.to fill the jobs. People are shouting about the rights of

:32:55. > :33:00.low-paid workers. These guys won't be the one to defend it. If they

:33:01. > :33:04.were serious about protecting low-paid workers they could

:33:05. > :33:12.legislate on zero-hours. We are going into the audience now. Thank

:33:13. > :33:19.you. In November last year David Cameron was interviewed on TV and he

:33:20. > :33:24.was asked what would happen if we left the EU. In that interview David

:33:25. > :33:28.Cameron said absolutely nothing. He said nothing would happen to the

:33:29. > :33:31.economy that we would thrive. Entrepreneurs would start - I have

:33:32. > :33:35.never read David Cameron saying that. It was on the TV. Without

:33:36. > :33:40.question as recently as February he was threatening to walk out over

:33:41. > :33:45.what we now see was unbelievable tweak to our welfare rules. The idea

:33:46. > :33:50.it would be a bomb under the economy is a fantasy. No matter what happens

:33:51. > :33:55.in this referendum, whether we stay or leave, the UK Government will

:33:56. > :33:58.never ever be the same again. On the point of migration. An important

:33:59. > :34:02.point to make. It doesn't affect everybody equally. It may be good

:34:03. > :34:05.for the whole economy overall, but it's experienced differently. There

:34:06. > :34:09.are people who will have their wages depressed. Bank of England research

:34:10. > :34:13.that suggests a small downward pressure on the lowest skill people

:34:14. > :34:17.in the service sector. The impact of migration, while it's good on ample,

:34:18. > :34:24.is not evenly distributed across all. We Jobs is important. There is

:34:25. > :34:29.a lot more we haven't discussed yet. For example, the pressure on public

:34:30. > :34:33.services in this country. It's a topic within the immigration debate

:34:34. > :34:37.that is absolutely massive. The people born and bred in this

:34:38. > :34:42.country, they want to be able to find, Claire, a place for their

:34:43. > :34:46.children in school. They want to be able to walk into the NHS and feel

:34:47. > :34:51.like the NHS can cope with the demand that the population of this

:34:52. > :34:54.country has. That is a doe Metsic policy consideration that can be

:34:55. > :34:57.addressed by the Government. We have a Conservative austerity Government

:34:58. > :35:01.that isn't putting the money into public services. That is not the

:35:02. > :35:06.responsibility of the European Union. You The same pressures on

:35:07. > :35:10.education, on health, on housing when the Labour Government was in

:35:11. > :35:13.power. When the Labour Government was spending money hand over fist

:35:14. > :35:17.much you had the same pressures mostly in working-class areas that

:35:18. > :35:20.is where the impact of uncontrolled immigration was felt most strongly.

:35:21. > :35:25.APPLAUSE Reply to that? If I heard Sammy

:35:26. > :35:28.right he was saying we let uncontrolled immigration. That led

:35:29. > :35:33.to these massive pressures on public services. I don't deny in a lot of

:35:34. > :35:37.communities people have felt those pressures. However, we, as Claire

:35:38. > :35:41.said earlier, we have always needed, right throughout history, we have

:35:42. > :35:44.needed immigrants at certain stages of economic development to come in

:35:45. > :35:49.and do the jobs, for example, 100,000 people in the UK. European

:35:50. > :35:55.immigrants working in our health and social and care system. Doing the

:35:56. > :35:59.jobs - Some people in certain areases of the United Kingdom feel

:36:00. > :36:03.that there is too much pressure because of immigration on local

:36:04. > :36:08.services and their local born kids and they themselves can't access

:36:09. > :36:13.them any more? I accept people feel that in some places. However we go

:36:14. > :36:18.back to the point. There's no point shouting I can't see you or hear

:36:19. > :36:21.you. You need to not shout. There is no point. You are making a fool of

:36:22. > :36:26.yourself you are shouting to yourself, we can't hear you. Wait

:36:27. > :36:29.until we get a mic to you we will come to you. I promise. He is

:36:30. > :36:33.talking about the austerity government. I will repeat this. In

:36:34. > :36:37.the whole of the last parliament the austerity cuts put together saved

:36:38. > :36:41.?36 billion. During the lifetime of that parliament our gross

:36:42. > :36:51.contribution to the EU was ?85 billion. Our net contribution is ?42

:36:52. > :36:57.billion. If we use that lower figure that would have... And sunk our

:36:58. > :37:02.economy. I want to keep a promise tonight. Who was the guy shouting? I

:37:03. > :37:10.want to put a mic to you. Sir, go-ahead. It's on you now. We can

:37:11. > :37:14.hear you. OK. Our grandfathers and their grandfathers worked their

:37:15. > :37:18.butts off to build up and died early as a result of it, apart from dying

:37:19. > :37:22.in the battlefield, to build up the infrastructure of this country and

:37:23. > :37:27.to protect our culture. These people are now suggesting that we can have

:37:28. > :37:33.all these foreigners coming in who are not prepared in very many

:37:34. > :37:38.circumstances to adopt our culture. We are being derrogatory towards our

:37:39. > :37:43.forbearers. APPLAUSE.

:37:44. > :37:48.Go-ahead. Respond to him. We have enough problems in Northern Ireland

:37:49. > :37:51.deciding what our own culture is. We can't explain to other people not

:37:52. > :37:58.adapting when we can't adapt to our own. We will move on. The Northern

:37:59. > :38:03.Ireland dimension. It featured in the referendum campaign a bit.

:38:04. > :38:10.Claims and counter claims about what would happen to the Irish border.

:38:11. > :38:14.John will set out the issues. Currently people can move freely

:38:15. > :38:21.between Northern Ireland, the republic and the re The rest UK due

:38:22. > :38:24.to the common travel area. It's a informal arrangement which predates

:38:25. > :38:28.the creation of the EU. Both the UK and Irish governments would push to

:38:29. > :38:31.see it continue if the UK left the EU. We can't be certain it will.

:38:32. > :38:36.Legal experts say it could only continue with with the agreement of

:38:37. > :38:40.other EU countries. If there is no agreement, we could see a harder

:38:41. > :38:46.border or more checks travelling to Great Britain from any part of this

:38:47. > :38:55.island witch could see the return of customs post. If a post-Brexit trade

:38:56. > :39:01.deal could mean that tariffs would have to be in force. It happens in

:39:02. > :39:05.Norway and Sweden. There is a Brexit could lead to another referendum in

:39:06. > :39:10.Scotland. The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, has said a vote to leave

:39:11. > :39:14.the EU against Scotland's wishes would almost certainly trigger an

:39:15. > :39:20.independence referendum. That shows you the pressure these politicians

:39:21. > :39:25.are putting. A vote for Breakfast, because I think about food all the

:39:26. > :39:28.time. Tom Kelly. On the border. Important issue here in Northern

:39:29. > :39:33.Ireland. We have seen Tony Blair, no less, John Major coming over and

:39:34. > :39:37.warning us that this border issue it could risk the peace process, no

:39:38. > :39:40.less. I don't need Tony Blair or John Major to warn me about that, I

:39:41. > :39:44.live on the border. I have lived there for the past 50 years of my

:39:45. > :39:48.life. As someone who knows until the single market went leaving aside all

:39:49. > :39:51.the historical stuff about common travel area and all of that, which

:39:52. > :39:54.is nonsense, I used to go to the dogs on a Friday night and Saturday

:39:55. > :40:00.night from Newry much you had to make sure that you didn't get in

:40:01. > :40:05.time with the lorries to cross during the cost opes posts at

:40:06. > :40:08.Dundalk. The reality for people who didn't go to the border during the

:40:09. > :40:12.past 50 years there was a border until the single market. It will

:40:13. > :40:16.come back. That's the biggest fear. We are actually reliant, our

:40:17. > :40:19.businesses, I feel I'm on another planet thech are talking abouts

:40:20. > :40:23.businesses that don't exist. The businesses here in Northern Ireland,

:40:24. > :40:26.a 57% trade with the Republic of Ireland. They need to export and

:40:27. > :40:29.they need to be tariff-free. Let us talk about here and stop talking

:40:30. > :40:36.about East Anglia. We want Northern Ireland first.

:40:37. > :40:40.APPLAUSE The common travel area has been in existence since partition.

:40:41. > :40:44.There have been hiccups during the war and Troubles. It works and both

:40:45. > :40:48.governments want it. As recently as 2011 it was ratified by both

:40:49. > :40:52.governments. Go to the Irish government website - That's because

:40:53. > :40:57.- You will see how much it's welcomed by the - They are inside

:40:58. > :41:01.the EUU. Dan made the point we have the internet. It's not that

:41:02. > :41:09.difficult to move goods across borders. Move goods from Turkey to

:41:10. > :41:15.Greece. - Go on. Can one of these Leave people explain to me how you

:41:16. > :41:19.can have this, bring back control of the borders, so you know everything

:41:20. > :41:25.is coming in without having border control? Yes, I would like to.

:41:26. > :41:29.Daniel Hannan is nearly jumping off his seat to tell you. Rather than

:41:30. > :41:33.listening to hypothesis or promises. There is a common travel area that

:41:34. > :41:40.includes - Because we are in the European Union. It includes the Isle

:41:41. > :41:46.of Man not in the EU. Also McCluskie the Channel Islands not in the EU.

:41:47. > :41:51.As observable fact you can have a travel area with EU and non-EU

:41:52. > :41:57.areas. You have to find either a party in Dublin or Westminster that

:41:58. > :42:03.is proposing such a thing. One second. In which case, your entire

:42:04. > :42:07.case falls down. Let us say I'm one of these terrible Polish builders

:42:08. > :42:12.that wants to come over here and undercut builders in London. All

:42:13. > :42:16.I've got to do, if we the UK come out of the European Union, get out

:42:17. > :42:20.of a plane from Warsaw to Dublin. Part of the single market, Dublin

:42:21. > :42:25.will be part of the single market. Get up to this border. You tell me

:42:26. > :42:34.there is no border controls I come into the United Kingdom. You You

:42:35. > :42:44.could go to Isle of Man or Heathrow. You don't need visas to fly here. He

:42:45. > :42:49.is right, is he not... Hold on. What are you are you suggesting we stop

:42:50. > :42:52.people travelling. How you are are you stopping a situation that

:42:53. > :42:56.Alistair Campbell suggested? How does the common travel area operate

:42:57. > :43:01.at the moment? We vote in the same European Union, for heavens sake.

:43:02. > :43:07.The Republic of Ireland did not sign up to the free travel area. It

:43:08. > :43:13.stayed out of the Schengen Arrangement. The checks take place

:43:14. > :43:19.at Irish ports. People come into Ireland and are free to move - OK.

:43:20. > :43:24.They have said the Irish Ambassador and the Irish Foreign Minister -

:43:25. > :43:30.This young lady here. Listen, I travelled across the border today,

:43:31. > :43:33.came up from Dublin for this today, I looked at the DUP website they

:43:34. > :43:37.want to move the North of Ireland forward. Surely, if we put up a

:43:38. > :43:43.border that is bringing us straight back. Have people in this room

:43:44. > :43:48.forgot what the border was about. I travel across the border on a weekly

:43:49. > :43:57.basis. I don't want to be stopped on the border. Let me make my point -

:43:58. > :44:02.If we leave the EU the reality is we will have border control because, as

:44:03. > :44:06.well as this, you have to remember that the Northern Ireland is the

:44:07. > :44:08.only place with within the UK, if we decide to leave, touching a member

:44:09. > :44:13.state, which is the south of Ireland. There will have to be

:44:14. > :44:18.security checks it would be ludicrous to think otherwise. Checks

:44:19. > :44:21.are done when people come into the Irish Republic. They have agreed to

:44:22. > :44:32.this? I know we are passionate about this

:44:33. > :44:36.but you have to let people comment. I will not let you answer because

:44:37. > :44:40.Claire is going to speak the fewer nice to me then you can speak.

:44:41. > :44:45.APPLAUSE I'm always nice to you. The whole

:44:46. > :44:50.tenor of the campaign has been about Johnny foreigner so they will have

:44:51. > :44:55.to say they police the border. It's not just about the border, Europe

:44:56. > :44:58.has underwritten the piece, invested literally millions and provided a

:44:59. > :45:01.framework so the border is less in your face so that Britain and

:45:02. > :45:04.Ireland have been able to relate to each other and trade with each other

:45:05. > :45:09.as good neighbours and equals and overcome common problems. The man

:45:10. > :45:13.referred to 100 years ago people dying on battlefields and you are

:45:14. > :45:16.absolutely right and for 1000 years before that Europe was at war and

:45:17. > :45:19.then people had the vision that working together instead of being at

:45:20. > :45:23.odds with each other would bring peace and it has worked. Is the one

:45:24. > :45:31.successful public resolution in the world. And on every occasion that

:45:32. > :45:34.Europe went to war, if you go back through history, it's because people

:45:35. > :45:39.tried to force a unity on the countries of Europe, either through

:45:40. > :45:48.war, either through marriages, either through treaties or whatever.

:45:49. > :45:53.When countries objected to it... Every European war that ever

:45:54. > :45:58.happened was all about people having territorial ambitions and political

:45:59. > :46:02.ambitions to unite Europe and that's exactly what we are agreeing to with

:46:03. > :46:07.the European Union, putting tensions between countries as a result. You

:46:08. > :46:15.are talking about turning your back on your neighbours, that is putting

:46:16. > :46:25.tensions on common endeavour and the Good Friday Agreement. Hayden in the

:46:26. > :46:27.audience. It is a complete fallacy between Northern Ireland and the

:46:28. > :46:31.republic, would have the scare tactics from the former Chancellor

:46:32. > :46:36.and the prime ministers and border guards and this and that. The Prime

:46:37. > :46:40.Minister Szot understands and said maybe in the event of leaving,

:46:41. > :46:44.checking passports going from Northern Ireland into mainland

:46:45. > :46:49.Britain. In fact, if we leave next week, what could happen is if there

:46:50. > :46:52.is going to be a hard border that may be replaced if the Republic join

:46:53. > :46:55.the Schengen agreement which would mean they would be the ones that

:46:56. > :47:00.would put up the border between the two countries. Are you worried about

:47:01. > :47:06.the break-up of the UK? If Scotland leaves was Mac first of all,

:47:07. > :47:15.Scotland cannot leave. -- if Scotland leaves? . This is a

:47:16. > :47:20.referendum in the UK. It could lead to it? Know it couldn't. This is a

:47:21. > :47:26.UK referendum about whether or not we stayed in the EU or leave. The

:47:27. > :47:29.issue whether Scotland has another referendum about leaving the UK will

:47:30. > :47:36.depend upon the right conditions being available there. All of the

:47:37. > :47:42.indication show... If you want to come in, I need you to be quick. The

:47:43. > :47:46.point I wanted to make, Stephen, is if the UK votes to come out, but

:47:47. > :47:52.there is a fairly significant majority in Scotland to stay in, I

:47:53. > :47:55.think Nicola Sturgeon is entitled to have a second referendum and even

:47:56. > :47:58.with the low oil price the politics in Scotland have changed

:47:59. > :48:00.sufficiently for that to happen. Sammy is sitting there as the

:48:01. > :48:04.defender of the union and he just ought to understand that if he

:48:05. > :48:07.carries on with the policy he is pursuing it could be this policy

:48:08. > :48:15.that leads to the break-up of the United Kingdom. It is about a

:48:16. > :48:21.structured predictions. It is like saying Saddam Hussein can bomb

:48:22. > :48:26.Britain in 45 minutes. We have had nothing but this fear, uncertainty

:48:27. > :48:29.and doubt. The Remain guys, it's not just that they cannot say anything

:48:30. > :48:34.nice about this country, they have not said anything nice about the EU.

:48:35. > :48:37.They say there will be war, famine, the destruction of civilisation and

:48:38. > :48:45.we will never get the Olympics again. Excuse me... You haven't had

:48:46. > :48:48.one positive thing to say. The reason is because nobody would be

:48:49. > :48:57.joining the EU today, you know that. Excuse me, your argument is... Make

:48:58. > :49:03.your mind up. APPLAUSE

:49:04. > :49:09.You cannot be allowed to talk this drivel. The other day I saw on the

:49:10. > :49:12.television if we stay in the European country we will have to

:49:13. > :49:15.watch all of these other countries coming in, Albania, Macedonia,

:49:16. > :49:19.people they think they can scare people with and go on about project

:49:20. > :49:25.via. The reason is people are right to go on about project fear is there

:49:26. > :49:30.is a lot to be scared of. One observation on Scotland Stephen.

:49:31. > :49:35.While the price of oil is at $50 a or below I don't think the economic

:49:36. > :49:39.case for an independent Scotland looks particularly strong. We are

:49:40. > :49:42.moving on to the final subject to nice, farming and fisheries, very

:49:43. > :49:47.important in this part of the world. Here is John Campbell again.

:49:48. > :49:50.Northern Ireland farmers receive ?236 million in direct EU subsidies

:49:51. > :49:56.last year and without that support farming as a whole would have made

:49:57. > :49:59.no profit. A further 83 million was paid in rule development grants. If

:50:00. > :50:03.we leave the EU that system would have to be replaced and most

:50:04. > :50:09.developed countries do have a subsidy system -- rural. The

:50:10. > :50:13.remaining macro side says there is no guarantee the funds would be

:50:14. > :50:16.replaced and the Leave side says subsidies could be more generous and

:50:17. > :50:21.it's true that non-EU countries like Norway give more support to farmers

:50:22. > :50:24.but that tends to make food more expensive for consumers. Farmers

:50:25. > :50:29.would also like less red tape, but any subsidy system will involve some

:50:30. > :50:33.bureaucracy and environmental protection rules. Our fishing

:50:34. > :50:38.industry is also governed by EU rules, attempting to prevent

:50:39. > :50:41.overfishing and make trade economically and environmentally

:50:42. > :50:44.sustainable, but that involves a high level of oversight with strict

:50:45. > :50:48.rules on what Fish can be caught and how much. There is also the issue of

:50:49. > :50:55.what sort of trade deal the UK would get after a Brexit. Wichary export

:50:56. > :50:59.around 30% of agricultural produce to the EU and if we don't get

:51:00. > :51:02.compressions of the meat and milk products could face high export

:51:03. > :51:06.tariffs. A deal that involves good market access would mean we still

:51:07. > :51:11.have to follow many EU rules but the Bo-lieve side thinks we might find

:51:12. > :51:22.it easier to get into new markets if we're not in the EU. -- the Leave

:51:23. > :51:27.side. We find in agriculture that being in the EU since the basic

:51:28. > :51:31.payment and greening system has come on farmers' payments have gone down

:51:32. > :51:35.and they are going down every two years and there is no guarantee

:51:36. > :51:39.after 2020 those payments will continue. From our point of view,

:51:40. > :51:44.before Britain was in the European Union, farmers did receive a good

:51:45. > :51:47.programme of subsidies and the National Farmers Union could argue

:51:48. > :51:57.their case every year to ensure there was good benefits for farmers

:51:58. > :52:01.and it was market-based. If we leave, with rules and regulations,

:52:02. > :52:07.can we press our politicians to take away some rules and regulations? You

:52:08. > :52:13.are a farmer? I'm a dairy farmer. What is your question? About rules

:52:14. > :52:18.and regulations. The CAP has been a disaster, it is the most amoral,

:52:19. > :52:21.expensive system, it is ruining for developing countries and bad for

:52:22. > :52:25.consumers and farmers and the CAP has created an ecological

:52:26. > :52:28.catastrophe in our waters. Violi I admit I've heard against bringing

:52:29. > :52:32.them back to Westminster or the devoted mistress and is is the one

:52:33. > :52:36.that the young guy said here, we don't trust our administration is.

:52:37. > :52:43.Aghast to the root of what this referendum is about. People from all

:52:44. > :52:48.over the British Isles were prepared in the last analysis to defend by

:52:49. > :52:52.force of arms. Are those gross promises or net promises we should

:52:53. > :52:56.trust? This is a really serious point. My dad fought in the last war

:52:57. > :52:59.with a Northern Ireland horse to live in a free country that makes

:53:00. > :53:01.its own laws. We are talking about protecting those rights for our

:53:02. > :53:07.kids. APPLAUSE

:53:08. > :53:12.IUA Pharma, Melissa? Unfortunately, no, I'm a country person who goes

:53:13. > :53:18.with a farmer but we disagree that are you a farmer? My question is on

:53:19. > :53:23.this subsidies again. If we leave the Government takes control of the

:53:24. > :53:28.subsidies and how can we guarantee they remain the same, they could

:53:29. > :53:35.drop. They will drop. They are dropping already. The figure which

:53:36. > :53:38.John quoted is ?120 million less than the year before so they are

:53:39. > :53:44.dropping already, that's the first thing. The second thing is this - we

:53:45. > :53:49.have always even before joining the EU had a system of farm subsidies.

:53:50. > :53:54.Farming supplies the raw material for one of our main industries, the

:53:55. > :53:58.agri- food industry, and of course we want to protect that because we

:53:59. > :54:03.employ so many people in the agri- food industry and the last thing is

:54:04. > :54:09.this, even if, let's say we did have the European Union in a fit of pique

:54:10. > :54:14.putting up boundaries to our farmers and telling us we cannot sell to

:54:15. > :54:21.Europe, because we are a net importer we would be able to deal

:54:22. > :54:25.with them. Two things, Sammy mentioned the Single Market. Agri-

:54:26. > :54:28.food employs nearly 100,000 people here, it is a massive industry in

:54:29. > :54:33.Northern Ireland and you need access to this angle market. Subsidies,

:54:34. > :54:37.we've been dependent on subsidies more through the strength of French

:54:38. > :54:42.farmers, German farmers and Irish farmers, not the UK Government --

:54:43. > :54:49.Single Market. Successive UK governments have been reluctant to

:54:50. > :54:53.supporting the CAP. What I would warn my fellow farmers about is you

:54:54. > :54:57.would depend on Westminster even Stormont the money and storm at

:54:58. > :55:00.coming up with it. Claire. There is no guarantee any of that money would

:55:01. > :55:04.be replaced Andy asked about rules and regulation. To be in the Single

:55:05. > :55:09.Market you have to comply with those rules and you don't get a safe. A

:55:10. > :55:13.third of exports are in agri- food, only 3% so you have an entirely

:55:14. > :55:18.different policy but that money has allowed us to modernise, diversify,

:55:19. > :55:22.it has done things like protect eels in Loch Neagh. This is another case

:55:23. > :55:25.of putting all of the hills on industry and blaming it on the EU

:55:26. > :55:33.and suddenly Magic sovereignty dust will go and undo that. I think we

:55:34. > :55:37.can make a better fist of it. We talk about fisheries and that's an

:55:38. > :55:41.industry that has a lot of Rob Evans but the quota is decided by the UK

:55:42. > :55:48.Government -- problems. If you want to talk about quotas, the Tories

:55:49. > :55:55.would... I want to talk to the farmer here. In Ireland there is two

:55:56. > :56:01.massive fish factory ships, Russian ships, they can catch all they want.

:56:02. > :56:07.They can sell to us. Whickham to the export of the EU, 56% of the British

:56:08. > :56:11.beef is imported from Ireland, 56% of the butter is imported to

:56:12. > :56:15.Britain, 28% of the cheese is imported to Britain. We are going on

:56:16. > :56:22.about subsidies, everyone in this room has to eat and we have to be

:56:23. > :56:24.supported. Currently Northern Ireland is a net beneficiary of

:56:25. > :56:28.agriculture subsidies from Europe. If we take that away and the British

:56:29. > :56:31.government gives it back into Northern Ireland, surely the British

:56:32. > :56:35.government should want Northern Ireland to leave because we will be

:56:36. > :56:39.in the same boat, sending money to Northern Ireland and not getting it

:56:40. > :56:43.back. What it was, Stephen, is when I was researching this afternoon, I

:56:44. > :56:46.can across a statement by the Ulster farmers union President Ian

:56:47. > :56:51.Marshall, and I think this is really important, that's the guy supporting

:56:52. > :56:55.farmers. The CAP is vital for farming incomes and no all tenet of

:56:56. > :57:03.support measurements have been put forward by Brexit and back goes to

:57:04. > :57:09.the heart of annual Hangeland Sammy Hannah's argument -- Daniel Hannan.

:57:10. > :57:15.Annual subsidies would be tailored to the needs of the farming industry

:57:16. > :57:21.in Northern Ireland. The very fact that we import so much of our food

:57:22. > :57:29.into the United Kingdom from the EU is the reason why the EU not Dunne

:57:30. > :57:38.will not block farmers selling to the EU -- not stop. Sammy talks

:57:39. > :57:42.about trade deficits. The next time you are getting groceries, going to

:57:43. > :57:46.Tesco that they sell you more than you sell them and see how they get

:57:47. > :57:49.on. The fact is it's about a market that we can sell into. You have no

:57:50. > :57:54.guarantee, the Tories have shown they are allergic to spending a

:57:55. > :57:57.singleton anymore. The economy will contract and they won't have the

:57:58. > :58:02.money to spend but if they get it they will do it in tax cuts, they

:58:03. > :58:06.will not give it to struggling farmers. 87% of the income comes

:58:07. > :58:09.from the EU. Anyone who says nobody cares about this debate, look at

:58:10. > :58:12.this debate tonight, the passion in Northern Ireland. And depressed

:58:13. > :58:17.looking at Twitter and Colin says everyone arguing about Brexit and

:58:18. > :58:23.Stephen is more concerned about his breakfast! That is all we have time

:58:24. > :58:27.for tonight. The debate continues. You said breakfast again, you are

:58:28. > :58:37.obsessed with it! It has been lovely having your company, thank you,

:58:38. > :58:39.Daniel, Sammy, Claire, Alistair, and thank you to the audience for your

:58:40. > :58:42.company.