:00:24. > :00:31.My name is John Pete, I am the Brexit editor of the Economist
:00:32. > :00:37.magazine. It is a great pleasure for me to be moderating this panel
:00:38. > :00:43.discussing Brexit and free movement in Europe House. It is my pleasure
:00:44. > :00:46.now to introduce the panel. And I will mention them all now in order
:00:47. > :00:52.of speaking. We're going to start with Diane Mulhall, the Irish
:00:53. > :00:54.ambassador in London. Ireland has a special interest in Brexit is
:00:55. > :01:01.probably the country most concerned about Brexit after Britain itself.
:01:02. > :01:07.Vicky Ford, MEP. She has just managed to make it. Then after Vicky
:01:08. > :01:09.we will have have a role from the National Institute of economic and
:01:10. > :01:12.social research, which has done a lot of work on migration. She is
:01:13. > :01:16.going to be discussing some actual hard evidence, not just opinions.
:01:17. > :01:21.And we are going to finish the opening discussion with Alex Barker,
:01:22. > :01:26.of the Financial Times, who I'm sure you have all read some of his
:01:27. > :01:29.columns, particularly his columns on budget contributions. He is the
:01:30. > :01:35.Brussels bureau chief of the Financial Times. Each panel is going
:01:36. > :01:39.to speak for about five or seven minutes. Diane Mulhall to start.
:01:40. > :01:42.Thank you everyone for being here and to the European Parliament
:01:43. > :01:48.offers for the invitation to be here. May I just start by making it
:01:49. > :01:53.clear that we in Ireland regret that the UK is our closest neighbour and
:01:54. > :01:57.most important external partner has decided to leave the European Union,
:01:58. > :02:03.but we've got to accommodate ourselves to that reality and try to
:02:04. > :02:09.minimise the damage that this will do to Ireland, to Irish - UK
:02:10. > :02:14.relations, and of course to the European Union, which we will be
:02:15. > :02:20.continuing to be a committed member of the European Union in the period
:02:21. > :02:28.ahead. So it is a source of sadness to ask that this 44 year partnership
:02:29. > :02:34.with the UK as fellow members of the European Union will come to an end
:02:35. > :02:39.in the coming years. And we will have challenges to face in that
:02:40. > :02:44.context, not least as a result of the fact that we are co-guarantors
:02:45. > :02:52.of the Northern Ireland peace process. And of course we will
:02:53. > :02:56.continue to occupy or have that responsibility. On the economic
:02:57. > :03:04.front, two we trade between Ireland and the UK currently runs at about
:03:05. > :03:09.?1 billion per week. It is a very significant trading relationship.
:03:10. > :03:12.And obviously any devolution of that trading connection would be damaging
:03:13. > :03:17.for both economies, but obviously especially for an economy like ours,
:03:18. > :03:23.which is so much smaller than the UK economy. There are about 700,000
:03:24. > :03:32.people in this country in Britain who were born on the island of
:03:33. > :03:37.Ireland. And many of those of course have children and grandchildren who
:03:38. > :03:42.live here, and some of those have acquired a renewed interest in their
:03:43. > :03:48.Irish identity, and the demand for passports last year went up by 40%.
:03:49. > :03:55.And this year so far it was up by a further 70%. That is an indication
:03:56. > :03:59.perhaps of the complexities for Ireland. I doubt if any other
:04:00. > :04:04.country in the European Union has quite that number of people in this
:04:05. > :04:09.country who are in a position to claim citizenship of any other
:04:10. > :04:14.European Union country. So, how do we view the issue of free movement,
:04:15. > :04:19.which is our specific concern this afternoon? What I would say is that
:04:20. > :04:26.this issue is not a defining political issue in Ireland as things
:04:27. > :04:35.stand. As it appears to be indeed in the UK. Now, you might say, well, is
:04:36. > :04:38.that because free movement of people within the European Union hasn't
:04:39. > :04:42.affected Ireland? That would be quite wrong, because it has affected
:04:43. > :04:45.Ireland more dramatically, I would say, than it has affected the United
:04:46. > :04:50.Kingdom. Let me just give you the figures.
:04:51. > :04:59.cl As late as 20 years ago, back in the 1990s, Ireland had virtually no
:05:00. > :05:03.immigration. We were a nation of people with an experience of
:05:04. > :05:10.emigration, but very little experience of immigration. We were
:05:11. > :05:16.unusual in European terms from that point of view. Today, according to
:05:17. > :05:27.our census, which was published recently and was taken last year, so
:05:28. > :05:30.the middle of 2016, 17.3% of the population of Ireland at the moment
:05:31. > :05:35.was born outside the Irish state which means that we have one of the
:05:36. > :05:41.highest percentages of immigrants in our population, or non-nationals in
:05:42. > :05:45.our population of any European country and including a higher
:05:46. > :05:52.percentage than is the case in the UK.
:05:53. > :05:58.Now, our top immigrant community come from Poland, 122,000 people.
:05:59. > :06:03.Out of a population of 4.5 million, it is not a small number, you can
:06:04. > :06:11.see. The UK, 103,000. Lithuania, 36,000. Romania, 29,000 and Latvia
:06:12. > :06:16.19,000. Now, those figures may seem modest enough, but if you want to
:06:17. > :06:24.put them into UK terms, you have to multiply by 12 to get a proportion
:06:25. > :06:27.of the population. The Irish population is approximately 1-12th
:06:28. > :06:32.of the population of the UK. You can see, therefore, that in proportional
:06:33. > :06:36.terms there are far more people from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia in
:06:37. > :06:41.Ireland than there are in Britain. And indeed, I just did the
:06:42. > :06:49.calculation of the top ten non-Irish communities in Ireland. And there
:06:50. > :06:58.are 360,000 EU nationals in that group. That's only the top 10, 9 or
:06:59. > :07:01.10, one is non-European. So, you are probably talking about a total
:07:02. > :07:07.population of EU nationals, non-Irish EU nationals of more than
:07:08. > :07:12.400,000, which gives you something like 5 million, if you multiply by
:07:13. > :07:18.12. The figures I see in the newspaper suggest that the EU
:07:19. > :07:23.non-national population in the UK of EU nationals is about 3 million. So
:07:24. > :07:31.you can see there are significantly more EU nationals in our population
:07:32. > :07:39.than is the case here in the UK. And indeed, another point I want to make
:07:40. > :07:43.is that the population of non-Irish EU nationals has remained remarkably
:07:44. > :07:49.steady in the last five years, since the last census. And in fact, you
:07:50. > :07:56.would - and given that that last census, that last period between
:07:57. > :08:01.2011 and 2016 included the period between 2011 and 2013, when the
:08:02. > :08:05.Irish economy went through some considerable difficulties, the EU
:08:06. > :08:19.population of Ireland has remained remarkably steady and indeed, if you
:08:20. > :08:23.look back to 2002, only 15 years ago, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia
:08:24. > :08:27.were not even in the top ten of non-Irish communities in Ireland and
:08:28. > :08:32.in fact, the second biggest non-Irish group in 2002, 15 years
:08:33. > :08:36.ago, was Americans. So you can see how the free movement principle has
:08:37. > :08:41.totally transformed Ireland's demography. It has given us an
:08:42. > :08:46.enormous, now, population of EU nationals. And this has happened,
:08:47. > :08:51.despite the difficulties that have occurred and that have arisen for
:08:52. > :08:55.the Irish economy after 2009. Now, despite these figures, which are, as
:08:56. > :09:01.I say, considerably higher than the figures for the UK and the fact that
:09:02. > :09:07.will Ireland's population, Ireland's unemployment rate remains above the
:09:08. > :09:12.UK level, currently 6.6%. Immigration is not a meaningful
:09:13. > :09:18.political issue in Ireland. We had an election last year and there was
:09:19. > :09:23.no evidence of any party or individual politician seeking to
:09:24. > :09:30.rattle the cage on migration issues, and trying to make political capital
:09:31. > :09:32.out of it. We have no populous anti-immigrant eurosceptic political
:09:33. > :09:36.party. And by the way, we have a full range of political parties now.
:09:37. > :09:43.There must be seven or eight parties represented in our Parliament. Which
:09:44. > :09:46.is 150 members. So, I gracing has not become a political football in
:09:47. > :09:53.Ireland in the way it has become in other parts of the Europe. As we
:09:54. > :09:57.approach the EU-UK negotiations, we take comfort from the fact that
:09:58. > :10:02.Ireland's special circumstances are being fully acknowledged on both
:10:03. > :10:06.sides of the table and it's notable that Prime Minister May's Article 50
:10:07. > :10:12.letter stressed her desire to avoid a hard border in Ireland and to
:10:13. > :10:17.maintain the common travel area between Ireland and the UK, which
:10:18. > :10:24.gives the Irish community in Britain a special status here. In fact under
:10:25. > :10:27.community is regarded as not being a community is regarded as not being a
:10:28. > :10:34.foreign community for the purposes of European law. So, that status
:10:35. > :10:37.will continue after Brexit. So the Irish community will have a special
:10:38. > :10:41.status here in this country, at least that is the intention of the
:10:42. > :10:44.British Government, supported by the Irish Government and of course, none
:10:45. > :10:49.of our European partners have any reason to object to that situation
:10:50. > :10:56.because, of course, the common travel area predates our membership
:10:57. > :10:59.of the European Union in 1973. Now, it's not just the Prime
:11:00. > :11:04.Minister's Article 50 letter that gives recognition to the Irish
:11:05. > :11:09.issues, the ones I mentioned. The E ucht's negotiating guidelines also
:11:10. > :11:12.stress the need to avoid a hard border in Ireland and to respect by
:11:13. > :11:18.lateral arrangements and agreements between Ireland and the UK, which is
:11:19. > :11:24.a reference to the common travel area and the special status of the
:11:25. > :11:27.Irish and Brits. So although the Irish and Britain will have a
:11:28. > :11:32.separate status under the common travel area, we will, as our
:11:33. > :11:37.Government's latest paper makes clear and we published it yesterday,
:11:38. > :11:42.a 50-page analysis of the Irish Government's position on Brexit has
:11:43. > :11:55.been published and I tweeted a link to it
:11:56. > :12:02.on my Twitter account on @danmlhall if you want it read it. So we will
:12:03. > :12:08.be looking to an agreement on the rights of all EU citizens in the UK
:12:09. > :12:12.and all UK citizens in the European Union that is "Wide, ambition and
:12:13. > :12:17.comprehensive." So I would say, in summary, we are a country that has
:12:18. > :12:21.been hugely affected by the free movement principle. It has not
:12:22. > :12:27.created the kind of problem it has created elsewhere, in that there
:12:28. > :12:30.have been no issues about EU nationals establishing themselves in
:12:31. > :12:33.Ireland and many of them now have been there for quite a while and
:12:34. > :12:37.settled there and this seems to be a good experience, from an Irish point
:12:38. > :12:40.of view. We will be approaching the coming
:12:41. > :12:48.negotiations as a committed member of the European Union and we will be
:12:49. > :12:54.looking to see rights of European zints in the UK, the subject, become
:12:55. > :12:57.the subject of a wide and comprehensive agreement,
:12:58. > :13:01.guaranteeing their rights for the future. But, also, we will
:13:02. > :13:06.acknowledge and recognise the fact that the Irish community in Britain,
:13:07. > :13:09.post-Brexit, will, under UK law, have a special status in this
:13:10. > :13:12.country for the future. Thank you for your attention. Thank you very
:13:13. > :13:24.much, Ambassador. APPLAUSE
:13:25. > :13:28.Round of applause, not least for the comprehensive paper your Government
:13:29. > :13:31.has published on this, which I think is better than what the British
:13:32. > :13:37.Government have published. Vicky Ford. Maybe I can pick up on some of
:13:38. > :13:43.the points that the ambassador has made and take them more. I was born
:13:44. > :13:50.in the UK, also born on the Ireland of Ireland and I spend a lot of time
:13:51. > :13:53.in Ireland and sometimes, still, in Northern Ireland and I understand
:13:54. > :13:55.what you have been talking about the benefits of Ireland as well, having
:13:56. > :14:00.had free movement. In the referendum it was a key issue for many people
:14:01. > :14:07.on the doorstep who voted Leave, it was the issue of free movement. I
:14:08. > :14:11.also think that we in the UK sometimes think the only way to
:14:12. > :14:16.interpret the EU approach to free movement is the way that we've
:14:17. > :14:21.interpreted it and actually other countries within the EU put their
:14:22. > :14:26.own types of control on free movement. So, if you were in
:14:27. > :14:31.Brussels, for example, where I came from today, you know, you can't just
:14:32. > :14:35.go and move and live in Brussels because in order to access any sort
:14:36. > :14:38.of benefit or health care or education or welfare, you have to
:14:39. > :14:42.have a Social Security number and you can't get a Social Security
:14:43. > :14:45.number without an employer who is prepared to commit that they are
:14:46. > :14:51.picking up the Social Security tab. So it is a very different type of
:14:52. > :14:54.control that they have. And so different countries have approached
:14:55. > :14:59.this in different ways. But as I said, that's sort of all in the past
:15:00. > :15:03.and I know that the Government will be looking at the way in which we
:15:04. > :15:07.decide our own approach to free movement. Theresa May has made that
:15:08. > :15:11.very clear. So where I want to take it now, on some of the discussion on
:15:12. > :15:14.citizens' rights because I think that's an area where people are
:15:15. > :15:18.extremely concerned, both EU citizens living in the UK, and UK
:15:19. > :15:23.citizens living elsewhere and I think that sometimes the press have
:15:24. > :15:29.been doing quite a lot of initial, additional sort of stirring of
:15:30. > :15:34.people's concerns here. Never. I think it is important that the Press
:15:35. > :15:40.raise the issues, but we need to try and also - and these are really
:15:41. > :15:43.important issues because they are people's lives - but both... I have
:15:44. > :15:47.been doing European negotiations for eight years and it is an awful lot
:15:48. > :15:55.easier when both sides actually agree with an issue. In this case
:15:56. > :15:59.the EU, both Michel Barnier, who is the EU, both Michel Barnier, who is
:16:00. > :16:03.negotiating from the for the European Commission on behalf of the
:16:04. > :16:07.Council and the European Parliament, all agree that this is their number
:16:08. > :16:15.one priority and they all agree that they want to resolve it. And in the
:16:16. > :16:23.European Parliament, we had a vote, just before Easter, on our key
:16:24. > :16:28.priorities for the EU negotiations, the top priority was that the
:16:29. > :16:33.agreement should address the legal status of the EU 27 citizens, living
:16:34. > :16:37.or having lived in the United Kingdom and of the United Kingdom
:16:38. > :16:42.citizens living or having lived in other Member States. So, both sides
:16:43. > :16:47.are saying that actually, we need to agree the rights on both sides. It's
:16:48. > :16:54.a question of how soon they can get to the table to start that detailed
:16:55. > :17:00.work. Now, therefore, in principle this should be very easy to bring
:17:01. > :17:09.agreement. So maybe there is a bit of confusion as to what we actually
:17:10. > :17:13.mean about which rights we are trying to make sure are respected
:17:14. > :17:17.and for me it is the right to get on with your lives and for your
:17:18. > :17:24.children and your family, your education, etc. The next step that
:17:25. > :17:29.sort of happened today was Michel Barnier, who, as I said is the EU
:17:30. > :17:35.Commissioner's chief negotiator, he has made a further statement today
:17:36. > :17:38.about the citizens' rights and Michel, is a very practical and
:17:39. > :17:46.pragmatic person who is trying to find solutions here. And most of
:17:47. > :17:52.what he is saying, I think, will be reasonably easy to agree but there
:17:53. > :17:55.is some of what he is saying that he wants EU citizens to have rights,
:17:56. > :18:01.living here in the UK, that may be more than what a British citizen
:18:02. > :18:06.has. And I think if, with great respect to our fantastic Irish
:18:07. > :18:12.friends, if you are suggesting that an Irish citizen living in London
:18:13. > :18:17.would have more rights than a British citizen living...
:18:18. > :18:21.So, for example, one of the suggestions he has said is the
:18:22. > :18:25.rights of a EU citizen who married someone from another part of the
:18:26. > :18:31.world to bring that partner here, they should keep having European
:18:32. > :18:35.rights, so what if that European right was ever faster, a more
:18:36. > :18:41.automatic procedure than we would've had in the UK, that could raise a
:18:42. > :18:45.challenge. He is also saying that an EU citizen living in the UK today,
:18:46. > :18:49.should continue to be able to have any future rights that are conferred
:18:50. > :18:55.of them shall as a European citizen, not just as a British citizen.
:18:56. > :19:00.Again, you could imagine that could be quite complicated. So from the
:19:01. > :19:04.basic premise, we want to keep parity. People should keep rights
:19:05. > :19:09.they have today F you choose to come and live in the UK, you should
:19:10. > :19:13.continue to be treated equally as a British citizen. That would be my
:19:14. > :19:19.basis for the negotiations and I think it could get a bit tense if
:19:20. > :19:23.the EU negotiators for the 27 start to ask for more. Just really quickly
:19:24. > :19:31.on some of the other issues you are talking about. The issue of no hard
:19:32. > :19:36.border in between Northern Ireland and Ireland is very important and I
:19:37. > :19:42.think it is also very important then, in how we think about our
:19:43. > :19:48.trade relationship with other parts of Europe as well. Most of the
:19:49. > :19:52.things that are stopped at our external borders in any type of a
:19:53. > :19:59.check are food or animals or plant groups. Over 90% of the groups that
:20:00. > :20:02.get stopped for customs persons at the poverty Felixstowe would be port
:20:03. > :20:07.or animal or food issues. So provided we have the same sort of
:20:08. > :20:12.regulations on how we care for our food, plants and animals, do we need
:20:13. > :20:17.to have hard customs processes not just between Northern Ireland and
:20:18. > :20:25.the South, but, across the channel as well? So I have been doing a lot
:20:26. > :20:29.of looking at how you can have more crafty customs processes and use of
:20:30. > :20:32.digital technology so you wouldn't have to go back to old-fashioned
:20:33. > :20:36.check containers and codes, etc and that I think is some very sensible
:20:37. > :20:41.thinking that has been going Onyedinma that as well.
:20:42. > :20:48.The reason I wanted to bring batting is because, you know, we've got this
:20:49. > :20:52.big debate about we need to agree these citizens rights and the money
:20:53. > :20:56.before we even start talking about what the end relationship would be.
:20:57. > :20:59.And that's the way the EU negotiators are saying it, but I'm
:21:00. > :21:04.saying that unless you have a bit more clarity about -- what the end
:21:05. > :21:09.relationship is going to be, some of the other issues, like Wattel border
:21:10. > :21:14.is going to be in Ireland, is challenging -- what your border is
:21:15. > :21:17.going to be. Again, some of these issues are movement of people, tying
:21:18. > :21:22.into what sort of relationship we want an provision of services.
:21:23. > :21:26.Yesterday I was with the chief negotiator from the NHS, this
:21:27. > :21:30.morning I was with the bar Council talking about whether or not we are
:21:31. > :21:34.going to continue to have lawyers being able to offer their services
:21:35. > :21:38.across the border. If that is part of our end relationship, it also
:21:39. > :21:42.makes it easier to backtrack into some of those other discussions we
:21:43. > :21:47.need to have about citizens' rights today. Final issue, nothing in
:21:48. > :21:55.Europe ever stays still and we need to remember that the EU 27 are also
:21:56. > :22:00.discussing their own future. And actually, there's a big discussion
:22:01. > :22:05.happening within the EU 27 about what is the future of the Single
:22:06. > :22:10.Market and services, what is the future within that of movement of
:22:11. > :22:15.people and posting of workers is a very controversial issue at the
:22:16. > :22:20.moment, especially between Eastern Europe and Western Europe. So will
:22:21. > :22:27.we can't necessarily assume that the positions that the rest of our
:22:28. > :22:31.European neighbours were taking five, three or even one year ago
:22:32. > :22:36.will stay the same over the next few years as well. So these things are
:22:37. > :22:43.moving. To sum up, both sides want to agree on citizens' rights. Both
:22:44. > :22:49.sides want to agree on parity for both EU citizens here and British
:22:50. > :22:54.citizens there. There may be some challenges if we start to ask for
:22:55. > :23:02.more than the other side. But I do think that there should be an
:23:03. > :23:09.amicable agreement on this point, because both sides have said they
:23:10. > :23:14.want to agree. Thank you. APPLAUSE
:23:15. > :23:21.Let's say that both sides are living in the same galaxy! Heather? So, Dan
:23:22. > :23:27.and Vicky have very nicely discussed some of the political issues around
:23:28. > :23:31.Brexit and free movement, and also some of the issues for citizens. I
:23:32. > :23:35.want to focus on the implications for the economy and employers. As a
:23:36. > :23:38.backdrop to this I have been carrying out research with employers
:23:39. > :23:43.before and after Brexit, looking at why they recruit migrants, what the
:23:44. > :23:47.obligations would be of restrictions on free movement, and what kind of
:23:48. > :23:53.policies do they think would work for them. First of all I think it is
:23:54. > :23:57.useful to say what is the problem, what are the challenges? I think the
:23:58. > :24:01.main problem and challenges for the economy and employers is the fact
:24:02. > :24:08.that the UK economy and some sectors in particular are very reliant on EU
:24:09. > :24:12.workers. And so, for example, some of the sectors that we have been
:24:13. > :24:18.focusing on such as hospitality, 200,000 workers from the EU are in
:24:19. > :24:23.the sector, 125,000 in the food and drink production sector, and so I
:24:24. > :24:27.know there is an idea, well, we could all do with a few less Prater
:24:28. > :24:34.Mosher branches, who cares if they have to close down? But other key
:24:35. > :24:40.sectors are determined on migrant workers -- on our Mosher. We have
:24:41. > :24:44.30,000 from Poland alone. There was a report out this week, a Parliament
:24:45. > :24:48.report on the health and social care sector which highlighted that the
:24:49. > :24:54.health sector has 60,000 workers from the EU. And the social care
:24:55. > :24:59.sector has 90,000. It is a lot of workers in key areas of the economy.
:25:00. > :25:04.Why is that? The narrative that you will read commonly in the press is
:25:05. > :25:08.that it is all about pay and exploitation. But actually research
:25:09. > :25:12.consistently shows that it is because employers cannot recruit the
:25:13. > :25:16.labour that they need. So currently we have, I didn't realise that
:25:17. > :25:23.unemployment was so high, but in the UK it is 4.8%, 6.6% in Ireland. In
:25:24. > :25:31.some areas of the UK where employers in these key sectors, food and
:25:32. > :25:33.drink, it is very low indeed, it is more like 3%, effectively zero
:25:34. > :25:37.unemployment. The jobs in some of those sectors historically, not just
:25:38. > :25:41.now, are not attractive to UK workers. There is very little
:25:42. > :25:44.evidence of preference. People say, you know, that Polish workers have a
:25:45. > :25:52.very good work ethic and that is why they are favourite -- favoured, but
:25:53. > :25:57.we search does not bear that out. What can be done? I think employers
:25:58. > :26:02.really do want to attract more British workers. But there are quite
:26:03. > :26:06.a few challenges to that. These are low paid sectors, they jobs where
:26:07. > :26:11.the conditions of work or unattractive, working in a factory
:26:12. > :26:15.is cold and noisy and pleasant. Those jobs have never really
:26:16. > :26:21.appealed to British workers. -- and pleasant. They are low paid and do
:26:22. > :26:26.not offer career prospects that young people want. Brexit has shaken
:26:27. > :26:29.up employers in those sectors, in particular hospitality. They are
:26:30. > :26:33.looking at how they can create better career pathways. But I think,
:26:34. > :26:36.I mean, it is good that they are doing that, and I think that is
:26:37. > :26:41.something that everybody would want to welcome, two up skilled workforce
:26:42. > :26:45.and so on. But historically, if you look at those sectors, hospitality,
:26:46. > :26:53.food and drink, manufacturing generally, they have always relied
:26:54. > :26:56.on migrant workers, there are no two ways about it. I think it would be
:26:57. > :26:59.fullish to think that we can turn things around even within the kind
:27:00. > :27:00.of time frames that some of these employer organisations we are
:27:01. > :27:04.talking about. They are talking about not wanting a cliff edge,
:27:05. > :27:07.wanting time to adjust, a transition period away from free movement, but
:27:08. > :27:11.I think in reality you would need much longer than even the ten years
:27:12. > :27:17.that some of them asking for. I just really don't think that would
:27:18. > :27:20.happen. But it does seem like as a result of the referendum we aren't
:27:21. > :27:24.going to have free movement. First of all, the employers that
:27:25. > :27:26.Wiesberger across the sectors were in denial and they felt it would
:27:27. > :27:30.have to continue, -- that we spoke have to continue, -- that we spoke
:27:31. > :27:33.to. They couldn't see any other way. In the months that have passed, they
:27:34. > :27:40.have come to terms with the fact that they are going to have to work
:27:41. > :27:44.with some new immigration system. So we have been discussing with them
:27:45. > :27:48.what would work. They have got three priorities. You won't be surprised
:27:49. > :27:53.to hear that the first one that Vicky talked about is about keeping
:27:54. > :28:01.their existing EU workers, who are really important to them. We have
:28:02. > :28:05.got two point something million EU workers in the workforce, and their
:28:06. > :28:10.families and dependents, and students from the EU. Shortly after
:28:11. > :28:14.we spoke to the employers after the referendum vote, there are immediate
:28:15. > :28:18.concern was about these employees. There were cases where they had
:28:19. > :28:22.hostile remarks, that they were very upset, and they were very concerned,
:28:23. > :28:25.the workers were very concerned about their future. Employers have
:28:26. > :28:30.spent a lot of time reassuring them about their future within the UK. It
:28:31. > :28:33.is frustrating to them now. We have done some or research recently with
:28:34. > :28:37.the same employers in the last month, they are frustrated that
:28:38. > :28:42.those assurances have not yet been given. And I think it isn't just a
:28:43. > :28:45.question of reassurances about them, it is about their families as well,
:28:46. > :28:49.that they are able to bring over family members and they are able to
:28:50. > :28:53.maintain a life for themselves and their families within the UK. That
:28:54. > :28:56.is the number one priority of employers at the moment, because
:28:57. > :29:02.they are concerned that they are going to lose the workers that they
:29:03. > :29:07.have. The second concern is that new policies must address their need for
:29:08. > :29:13.low skilled Labour. The idea that we can simply transport the system that
:29:14. > :29:18.we have a highly skilled labour outside the EU to EU workers is
:29:19. > :29:21.simply not going to work. I think that was ruled out pretty quickly by
:29:22. > :29:27.the British Government, the fact that the ideal of a points-based
:29:28. > :29:31.system was ruled out. I think at the same time it is very problematic,
:29:32. > :29:35.what kind of scheme would you have that would cover low skilled
:29:36. > :29:39.workers? There has been suggestions that sector -based schemes, I think
:29:40. > :29:42.that is something that employers do find quite attractive, the idea that
:29:43. > :29:47.their sector would be seen as having some kind of need. But there is all
:29:48. > :29:52.sorts of difficulties around that. For example, how would you define
:29:53. > :29:56.the sector? Some of these, you know, they are not very easy to define,
:29:57. > :30:00.some of them have quite broad categories. Also, within a sector
:30:01. > :30:05.there are shortages, say of production workers in the food
:30:06. > :30:09.sector. No shortage of HR managers, for example. To have a scheme that
:30:10. > :30:15.apply to the whole sector is probably not going to work. There is
:30:16. > :30:18.also the idea of sector -based schemes, they would allow the
:30:19. > :30:23.temporary migration. There has been a lot of discussion of having
:30:24. > :30:27.temporary, one year or two year the users. Of course, the attraction of
:30:28. > :30:32.that for the UK Government is that temporary stays of one year or less
:30:33. > :30:36.do not appear in the migration statistics. The Government is
:30:37. > :30:40.continuing to keep to its target of reducing migration to the tens of
:30:41. > :30:44.thousands. And having temporary migrants rather than ones that stay
:30:45. > :30:52.for a longer period and appear in the statistics would be appealing.
:30:53. > :30:55.Not to employers. Because EU workers have very helpfully met the UK is
:30:56. > :31:02.demand for low skilled workers, but they also have posts at all levels
:31:03. > :31:07.within organisations, and employers have seen them as a source of
:31:08. > :31:10.recruitment to more skilled level positions within their
:31:11. > :31:13.organisations. I think it took some time for that to happen,
:31:14. > :31:16.particularly for Eastern European migrants, but it is happening and
:31:17. > :31:21.employers actually don't like the idea of having somebody for a short
:31:22. > :31:28.period and bend them going home. The idea of a temporary scene is not
:31:29. > :31:34.appealing to employers. We have had some discussion about the arrest
:31:35. > :31:40.scheme. -- the wrist that scheme. It would be built on the current youth
:31:41. > :31:46.mobility scheme, actually it currently applies to young people, I
:31:47. > :31:51.think it is 18-30, from Canada, New Zealand and Australia. But there is
:31:52. > :31:56.only 42,000 in the scheme. They have to have something like 18 or ?19,000
:31:57. > :31:59.in the bank, and they pay an additional 200 something pounds. It
:32:00. > :32:03.doesn't really seem like a scheme that is going to take off unless it
:32:04. > :32:07.is adjusted in some way. But it certainly would not appeal to most
:32:08. > :32:11.employers in the sectors that I am talking about, Duminy who is just
:32:12. > :32:14.here essentially in a holiday and is going to go back. -- somebody who is
:32:15. > :32:21.just tear up essentially on a holiday. So the third priority for
:32:22. > :32:26.employers is to have the minimum of bureaucracy. That doesn't really
:32:27. > :32:34.seem very realistic at all. But they realise that actually immigration is
:32:35. > :32:37.not really going to be policed at the border, the UK Government
:32:38. > :32:41.doesn't want to stop tourists coming in, people coming in the short
:32:42. > :32:46.periods, it is going to be policed in the workplace. We had a series of
:32:47. > :32:51.Round Table discussions, one for the food and ring sector and the other
:32:52. > :32:55.one for hospitality, and there were visibly disturbed and shaken by the
:32:56. > :33:00.idea, when they realised, well, hang on, I don't have these passports and
:33:01. > :33:03.angered. They currently do check -- I'm going to have to check. They
:33:04. > :33:07.currently do check that their workers have the right to work it,
:33:08. > :33:09.but we will have an array of different arrangements in all
:33:10. > :33:13.likelihood, they are very concerned about that. One of their concerns is
:33:14. > :33:17.that they are going to run foul of the law. We all know what happens to
:33:18. > :33:20.employers when that happens. And the kind of bad publicity they would
:33:21. > :33:26.have, locally and potentially nationally as well. But they do want
:33:27. > :33:30.systems which are going to be very responsive. Currently, if you want
:33:31. > :33:33.to recruit somebody from outside the EU have to go through quite a
:33:34. > :33:37.lengthy process, you have to advertise the job for 28 days. That
:33:38. > :33:40.is not going to work the employers in industries like food and drink
:33:41. > :33:49.and hospitality that really need somebody straightaway. They are not
:33:50. > :33:53.averse to the idea of having to give somebody a job offer before they
:33:54. > :33:58.come to the UK. That might be something that we do end up with.
:33:59. > :34:03.Currently that does apply to workers from outside the EU. But I think on
:34:04. > :34:06.the downside, as far as perceptions from the public are concerned, that
:34:07. > :34:11.would open the door much more to agencies. We will have much more of
:34:12. > :34:14.a role of agencies going out to Eastern Europe in particular and
:34:15. > :34:27.recruiting people, giving them the job offer, and then coming here.
:34:28. > :34:30.So... Those are the three areas of priority for employers in terms of
:34:31. > :34:34.new immigration policy. But I think there are two other groups that we
:34:35. > :34:39.do really need to consider. First of all there is the public. What did
:34:40. > :34:42.they vote for? Did they vote for the end of free movement of people,
:34:43. > :34:47.there is a bitter dispute about that. But if you look at the kind of
:34:48. > :34:52.immigration that the public does not like, it is immigrants who are here
:34:53. > :34:56.for a short period of time, who don't saddle, who don't contribute,
:34:57. > :35:00.he'll just basically get what they can, and send the money home. I do
:35:01. > :35:04.fear that the kind of policies that are being thought of, considered and
:35:05. > :35:07.develop now are going to lead down that path. The policies that
:35:08. > :35:12.currently seem to be considered are those that would involve short-term
:35:13. > :35:18.stays, that will in some way in Courage agencies. I think it is like
:35:19. > :35:22.where Vicky has been an MEP, it will be quite visible. I think you will
:35:23. > :35:26.have big groups of migrants being shipped in by agencies, staying for
:35:27. > :35:29.quite short periods. That is exactly the kind of immigration that people
:35:30. > :35:33.thought they were voting against when they voted to leave the EU. The
:35:34. > :35:37.other group that I think we need to consider is migrants themselves.
:35:38. > :35:43.Obviously, you know, they have a lot of choice about where they can work
:35:44. > :35:47.within Europe. Speaking to employers, they are currently, there
:35:48. > :35:51.is currently little evidence of the kind of mass exodus of EU migrants
:35:52. > :35:55.from workplaces in the UK. I think it is because it is a case of wait
:35:56. > :36:02.and see. Everybody is waiting and seeing. I think actually for quite a
:36:03. > :37:03.few migrants who have family here, it is not easy...
:37:04. > :37:08.Approximate Welcome to the great countive Nottinghamshire and in
:37:09. > :37:13.particular here to Carlton at the head of the Gedling constituency.
:37:14. > :37:18.And this is a constituency that we would like to see represented, after
:37:19. > :37:18.the general election by our fantastic candidate, Caroline
:37:19. > :37:38.Abbott. Here in Nottinghamshire, as I am
:37:39. > :37:42.esure over the Midlands we have been out on the doorstep, as we do,
:37:43. > :37:45.talking to the members of the public and one message comes back to us
:37:46. > :37:52.time and again and that is people saying to us that they trust Theresa
:37:53. > :37:55.May. Hear, hear. People say they trust Theresa May as a strong and
:37:56. > :38:01.stable leader, working in the national interest that this country
:38:02. > :38:04.needs in challenging times and at this general election, whether in
:38:05. > :38:08.Nottinghamshire or any constituency across the UK, there is only one
:38:09. > :38:14.leader who will secure us both the deal that we need, as we leave the
:38:15. > :38:16.European Union and will secure the stronger Britain that
:38:17. > :38:21.Nottinghamshire, the Midlands, the whole country needs to secure our
:38:22. > :38:27.future and our children's futures. So, wherever you come from today,
:38:28. > :38:31.whether from the great cities of the Midlands, like Nottingham, like
:38:32. > :38:35.derby, Wolverhampton, Stoke-on-Trent and of course like Birmingham, or
:38:36. > :38:40.whether you have come from the market towns like Newcastle under
:38:41. > :38:46.lime or new washing or you have come from our former international towns
:38:47. > :38:48.lying Mansfield and Ashfield where we are campaigning in
:38:49. > :38:55.Nottinghamshire, places that the Labour Party have taken for granted
:38:56. > :38:55.and neglected my whole life. Hear, hear
:38:56. > :39:07.APPLAUSE. Wherever you come from today, there
:39:08. > :39:14.is only one partied and one leader who is committed to building a
:39:15. > :39:17.country that works for everyone and will work for every part of the
:39:18. > :39:23.Midlands. That leader is Theresa May.
:39:24. > :39:31.So, would you join me, would you join me today in giving a very warm
:39:32. > :39:33.welcome, here to Nottingham, back to Nottingham, to the Prime Minister,
:39:34. > :39:50.Theresa May. Thank you, thank you very much
:39:51. > :39:55.everybody for that welcome. Thank you, Robert for those words and it's
:39:56. > :40:02.great to be with you here in Gedling today as we put the local elections
:40:03. > :40:10.behind us and now focus on this absolutely crucial general election
:40:11. > :40:16.in just 29 days' time. And we can take absolutely nothing for granted.
:40:17. > :40:20.Hear, hear And we are certainly not taking anything for granted as
:40:21. > :40:26.regards our team. We have a great team here of local candidates,
:40:27. > :40:30.standing across the east and west Midlands a great team and what I say
:40:31. > :40:34.to people across the whole of the Midlands is this - this is the team
:40:35. > :40:37.that I need behind me to ensure that we have that strong position to
:40:38. > :40:42.shall negotiate the best deal for Britain in Europe. This is the team
:40:43. > :40:47.that is going to be taking out our positive message on to the streets.
:40:48. > :40:52.Ta message of strong and stable leadership in the national interest.
:40:53. > :40:56.Of strengthening the UK's position in those Brexit negotiations, of
:40:57. > :41:02.building a better future for the United Kingdom and every vote for me
:41:03. > :41:08.and my local candidates is a vote that strengthens our hand in those
:41:09. > :41:12.Brexit negotiations. And just stop for a minute to think what the
:41:13. > :41:17.alternative would be, because it would be tow risk making Jeremy
:41:18. > :41:23.Corbyn our Prime Minister. -- to risk making Jeremy Corbyn our Prime
:41:24. > :41:28.Minister. Can you picture it? No. LAUGHTER Jeremy Corbyn sitting at
:41:29. > :41:33.the negotiating table with the combined might of the negotiating
:41:34. > :41:36.team and the 27 others countries ranged against him but the Liberal
:41:37. > :41:42.Democrats and Scottish national parties are all lining up to prop
:41:43. > :41:47.him up and the possibility of a Corbyn-led coalition of chaos is
:41:48. > :41:52.real and a vote for any other party is to take a step closer to Jeremy
:41:53. > :41:59.Corbyn sitting at that Brexit negotiating table. Now, we must stop
:42:00. > :42:03.that, by winning support, here in the East Midlands and in the West
:42:04. > :42:09.Midlands and across the whole of the United Kingdom. But we must also
:42:10. > :42:12.expose the nonsensical policies that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party
:42:13. > :42:19.are putting forward in this election campaign. Because they simply do not
:42:20. > :42:23.add up. And we know Labour would wreck the economy and that would
:42:24. > :42:28.render all their promises totally undeliverable. Now, by contrast,
:42:29. > :42:32.what we are doing is taking positive, credible, deliverable
:42:33. > :42:38.policies, out to voters. Policies like capping energy prices to
:42:39. > :42:42.support working families. Like protecting workers' pensions against
:42:43. > :42:45.irresponsible bosses, like bringing in new mental health laws to end
:42:46. > :42:51.injustice. That is the positive message that we will be taking out,
:42:52. > :42:56.over the next 29 days, out into our communities and out on to the
:42:57. > :43:00.streets and it is a positive message and what I say to people is that it
:43:01. > :43:05.isn't about how people have voted before. This election is about who
:43:06. > :43:10.people want to lead our country for the next five years. This election
:43:11. > :43:15.is about strong and stable leadership in the national interest.
:43:16. > :43:21.And my instruction top candidates is very simple and very clear - take
:43:22. > :43:26.nothing for granted. I want you to be out there, on those streets, no
:43:27. > :43:33.stone unturned, no street unwalked down, no door unknocked on. I wanted
:43:34. > :43:40.you to ensure that you are out there with the voters. Because it is only
:43:41. > :43:46.by working flat out every day, until June 8th, that we will ensure that
:43:47. > :43:50.we can gain the trust of the British people and earn their support on
:43:51. > :43:54.polling day. So, that's what I want you to be doing. I want you to be
:43:55. > :43:59.out there, campaigning hard and you know, over the years, as a Member of
:44:00. > :44:03.Parliament, I have been - 20 years in Parliament now - over those years
:44:04. > :44:07.I have learned how important it is to speak directly to voters and to
:44:08. > :44:14.listen to their concerns. And that, as I say, is exactly what I want you
:44:15. > :44:18.all to be doing. I've also learned across those 20 years that you
:44:19. > :44:24.should never try to predict election results. LAUGHTER
:44:25. > :44:28.I leave you with these thoughts on that point. If you recall back to
:44:29. > :44:32.the 2015 general election, the opinion polls got that one wrong.
:44:33. > :44:36.They got the EU referendum wrong and Jeremy Corbyn was a 200-1 outside
:44:37. > :44:40.chance for the Labour Leadership. So we need to take our positive message
:44:41. > :44:46.out there on to the streets. Making the case for that strong and stable
:44:47. > :44:51.leadership in the national interest. Going out there, taking that message
:44:52. > :44:56.to people. And it's by doing that that I think we can show people that
:44:57. > :45:00.a vote for me and my team, my local candidates, is a vote for the
:45:01. > :45:03.leadership that is needed, that strong and stable leadership to take
:45:04. > :45:09.us through Brexit and beyond, a vote for me and my team and the local
:45:10. > :45:13.candidate, my local candidates is a vote to strengthen our hand in that
:45:14. > :45:17.Brexit negotiations and a vote for me and my team and my local
:45:18. > :45:21.candidates is a vote that lock in economic security for the whole of
:45:22. > :45:27.our country. By taking that message out, then we can win people's
:45:28. > :45:33.support and by winning people's support, thenning, together, we'll
:45:34. > :45:35.show that we will strive for Britain, we will fight for Britain
:45:36. > :45:37.and together we will deliver for Britain. Thank you.
:45:38. > :46:02.APPLAUSE Hear, hear.
:46:03. > :46:09.Thank you, now we will take some questions, I see Andy. Is Andy?
:46:10. > :46:15.Sorry, I can't see him into the lights? Do we have the BBC? Thank
:46:16. > :46:18.you, Prime Minister, Alex Forsyth BBC nu.s Labour and the Liberal
:46:19. > :46:23.Democrats have promised to pour billions more into schools, you have
:46:24. > :46:26.repeatedly said that school funding is at record levels but it doesn't
:46:27. > :46:30.take into account rising pupil numbers, will you commit to maintain
:46:31. > :46:33.or increase per pupil funding and will you consider abandoning your
:46:34. > :46:37.plans to change the funding formula, in light of criticism from within
:46:38. > :46:40.your own party, and some headteachers who say they are
:46:41. > :46:44.worried about ending up broke? Well, first of all school funding is at
:46:45. > :46:53.record levels and we've also, within that we are putting record levels of
:46:54. > :46:57.funding into early education. We've protected the school pupils' premium
:46:58. > :47:01.worth ?2.5 billion but what matters in education is actually not just
:47:02. > :47:04.about the funding, it is about the results you see and the education
:47:05. > :47:09.you are providing for the children. What we see across the country is
:47:10. > :47:12.1.8 more children in good or outstanding schools. That's
:47:13. > :47:16.important because we want to ensure that every child gets a good start
:47:17. > :47:20.in life and that's why our policy and what we are proposing is to
:47:21. > :47:26.ensure a good school place for every single child. So that they get that
:47:27. > :47:32.best-possible start in life. And on the funding formula issue, if you
:47:33. > :47:36.look across the political spectrum, people have accepted for years now
:47:37. > :47:40.the current funding formula is unfair. What we have done we have
:47:41. > :47:43.put a proposal out. We've had comments on it and in due course we
:47:44. > :47:47.will respond to it but everybody agrees we need to look at that issue
:47:48. > :47:55.because the funding has been unfair over the years. ITV? Emily Morgan
:47:56. > :48:02.ITV News. Prime Minister, do you agree with your party Chairman that
:48:03. > :48:05.those who made complaints about the Tory Party electi expenses
:48:06. > :48:10.politically motivated and wasted police time? Well let's see what has
:48:11. > :48:14.happened in relation to this. I'm pleased what we see, of course, is
:48:15. > :48:17.that after full and lengthy investigation, the legal authorities
:48:18. > :48:23.have confirmed what we believe all along and what we have seen along
:48:24. > :48:26.that the local spending was properly reported and declared and that the
:48:27. > :48:30.candidates have done nothing wrong. Now, of course police time has been
:48:31. > :48:34.taken up in relation to this issue. Those who made those complaints will
:48:35. > :48:38.have to consider the basis on which they made the complaints but all I
:48:39. > :48:43.would say is - actually, if we look at the expenses issue, we have seen
:48:44. > :48:46.all the may scombreerts and the Scottish Nationalists being fined
:48:47. > :48:50.for mistakes having been made on national expenses, we have paid our
:48:51. > :48:58.fines and I sincerely hope the other parties are paying theirs. Prime
:48:59. > :49:03.Minister, the Telegraph - Tim Farron says he is the only working class
:49:04. > :49:08.leader in the election. Are you middle class or upper class and are
:49:09. > :49:12.you proud of it? I'll fell you what I am, I'm somebody who is here to
:49:13. > :49:15.work for ordinary working families up and down this country. Hear,
:49:16. > :49:24.hear. APPLAUSE
:49:25. > :49:27.And I want it make sure that it doesn't matter what background you
:49:28. > :49:32.come from, it's up to you, your tappents and your hard work as to
:49:33. > :49:36.how far you go in life and we want to create a better few toor for all,
:49:37. > :49:42.for everyone across the country. Thank you, Faisal.
:49:43. > :49:45.Prime Minister, I must follow up on the CPS issue, you said local
:49:46. > :49:48.returns from fine, but the Crown Prosecution Service said there is
:49:49. > :49:53.evidence to suggest that returns may have been inaccurate. Was there an
:49:54. > :49:57.issue at CCHQ? Can you confirm to the public that this campaign has
:49:58. > :49:59.learnt the lessons of that and you are returning a straight campaign in
:50:00. > :50:08.2017? We have always reported expenses
:50:09. > :50:13.according to the rules. What the CPS found clearly in those cases that
:50:14. > :50:16.they looked local constituencies is that spending had been properly
:50:17. > :50:21.recorded the candidates have done nothing wrong. And there was an
:50:22. > :50:24.error made in our national return in 2015 in our general election, the
:50:25. > :50:32.Electoral Commission finders for that we have paid that fine. Other
:50:33. > :50:42.parties were also find and as I say I hope they have paid their finds,
:50:43. > :50:45.as well. We have seen you in the Conservative Party advert on the
:50:46. > :50:50.front page of one of our papers recently. Clearly you are trying to
:50:51. > :50:55.win places like Mansfield. Do you truly believe that you can win in a
:50:56. > :51:00.former mining town that has been Labour for nearly close to a
:51:01. > :51:03.century? As I have just said, this isn't about who people have voted
:51:04. > :51:07.for before, it is about who they want to lead the country over the
:51:08. > :51:13.next five years. It is about who they will believe will have the
:51:14. > :51:19.strongest negotiations and the strongest possible deal for Britain
:51:20. > :51:23.in Europe. But matters for people in Mansfield and across the whole of
:51:24. > :51:30.the Midlands. It is about locking in job security, incomes for people. A
:51:31. > :51:34.strong economy to pay for our NHS and public services. This is about a
:51:35. > :51:40.very clear choice. There is only one of two people who is going to be
:51:41. > :51:45.premised on the 9th of June. Me or Jeremy Corbyn. Which one of us do
:51:46. > :51:53.people want to leave the country for the next five years? I will take one
:51:54. > :51:58.more question. Rowena Mason from the Guardian. What the CPS actually said
:51:59. > :52:02.is that there is evidence to suggest that the local candidates returns
:52:03. > :52:07.may have been inaccurate, so it is not right to say that all local
:52:08. > :52:10.returns were correctly filled out. Will you apologise for that because
:52:11. > :52:15.it might mean that some local candidates breached their spending
:52:16. > :52:18.limits at the last election. The CPS has decided, they are an independent
:52:19. > :52:24.body, they have decided that no charges will be against no candidate
:52:25. > :52:30.in this matter. Candidates did nothing wrong. This is very
:52:31. > :52:34.important. I've said it several times, candidates did nothing wrong.
:52:35. > :52:37.What we're doing our the selection is going out there with a very
:52:38. > :52:42.positive message which is about the future our country. This is a
:52:43. > :52:46.critical general election for the future of our country. It is about
:52:47. > :52:50.the leadership of our country for the next five years. It is about
:52:51. > :52:54.ensuring we can take his country through Brexit, make the best deal
:52:55. > :52:58.for the UK and beyond to build a better future for us, our children
:52:59. > :53:09.and our grandchildren. Thank you.