0:00:00 > 0:00:06into war almost by accident?
0:00:09 > 0:00:11In South Korea, the US Air Force is practising
0:00:11 > 0:00:12for war with the North.
0:00:12 > 0:00:15President Trump is now threatening to erase North Korea from the map.
0:00:15 > 0:00:18We will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.
0:00:18 > 0:00:20Kim Jong-un is responding with ever bigger and more powerful missiles
0:00:21 > 0:00:22and nuclear tests.
0:00:22 > 0:00:24The US is moving ships and aircraft to the Korean
0:00:24 > 0:00:26peninsula in ever greater shows of military might.
0:00:26 > 0:00:29Are we now on the road to war or is President Trump in
0:00:29 > 0:00:39danger of starting a war he doesn't want?
0:01:00 > 0:01:03Are we now on the road to war or is President Trump in
0:01:03 > 0:01:05danger of starting a war he doesn't want?
0:01:05 > 0:01:07This could go bad very very quickly.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09And it could go very bad very, very quickly.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20OK, we've just been told to put our goggles on.
0:01:20 > 0:01:21The plane is descending fast.
0:01:21 > 0:01:24I think that's the signal we are about to go
0:01:24 > 0:01:25on board.
0:01:25 > 0:01:28This is the scary bit.
0:01:28 > 0:01:30OK, that's the signal.
0:01:30 > 0:01:33And we're down.
0:01:44 > 0:01:47Off the coast of South Korea, three giant American super carriers are
0:01:47 > 0:01:49sailing together.
0:01:49 > 0:01:53This is an extremely rare sight.
0:01:53 > 0:01:55They've been ordered here by President Trump in
0:01:55 > 0:02:05the biggest show of naval might in this region for over a decade.
0:02:06 > 0:02:09The last time anything like this was seen in the Western Pacific was ten
0:02:09 > 0:02:11years ago.
0:02:11 > 0:02:13Here of the Korean peninsula no one can really
0:02:13 > 0:02:19remember.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21This is a raw expression of America's military muscle.
0:02:21 > 0:02:23And for President Trump it is a message
0:02:23 > 0:02:26being sent to Pyongyang that if it doesn't come to the negotiating
0:02:26 > 0:02:30table this is potentially what it faces.
0:02:30 > 0:02:40On board these ships are more than 200 combat aircraft.
0:02:41 > 0:02:43So what does it mean to have three carriers
0:02:43 > 0:02:47out here together?
0:02:47 > 0:02:49Well, the significance of our combat power as
0:02:49 > 0:02:52an American super carrier is our striking arm of our carrier air
0:02:52 > 0:02:54wing.
0:02:54 > 0:02:57And we can sustain 24 hour operations for extended periods of
0:02:57 > 0:02:58time.
0:02:58 > 0:03:00However, with more than one carrier, that length of time goes
0:03:00 > 0:03:04out indefinitely, quite frankly, when we get to three.
0:03:04 > 0:03:06In other words, if called upon to do so,
0:03:06 > 0:03:08there is enough firepower out here to go to war,
0:03:08 > 0:03:10and to keep fighting day and night.
0:03:10 > 0:03:12This is President Trump's responds to what has been a
0:03:12 > 0:03:14year of dramatic advances by North Korea.
0:03:14 > 0:03:17On the 28th of August, just after dawn, a long-range ballistic
0:03:17 > 0:03:19missile is launched from the runway of Pyongyang's International
0:03:19 > 0:03:29Airport.
0:03:42 > 0:03:44Kim Jong-un is there watching as the missile heads for
0:03:44 > 0:03:47space.
0:03:47 > 0:03:56It is the fifth missile test of 2017, but this one is different.
0:04:01 > 0:04:03Five minutes later and 1500 kilometres away in northern Japan,
0:04:03 > 0:04:08air raid sirens start blaring.
0:04:08 > 0:04:11This is not a drill.
0:04:11 > 0:04:15The North Korean missile is passing right overhead.
0:04:15 > 0:04:21The loudspeakers order people to find shelter.
0:04:21 > 0:04:25It is the first time this has happened since World War II.
0:04:25 > 0:04:27For months, up and down this coast, they have been practising for
0:04:28 > 0:04:29this.
0:04:29 > 0:04:36Now, they're doing it for real.
0:04:36 > 0:04:39For a Japanese generation brought up in peace and security,
0:04:39 > 0:04:42it's a big shock.
0:04:42 > 0:04:48TRANSLATION:I want to protect my kids, but we
0:04:48 > 0:04:53don't have a basement, we have nowhere to hide.
0:04:53 > 0:04:56That missile takes only ten minutes to reach Japan, what
0:04:56 > 0:04:57can we do in ten minutes?
0:04:57 > 0:04:59TRANSLATION:The sirens just scare people.
0:04:59 > 0:05:05There's nothing we can do.
0:05:05 > 0:05:06So what is the point?
0:05:06 > 0:05:12The government needs to have a real policy.
0:05:12 > 0:05:14Five days later, Kim shocks the world
0:05:14 > 0:05:16again.
0:05:16 > 0:05:19Deep under a mountain near the Chinese border, North Korea has
0:05:19 > 0:05:24set off a nuclear device.
0:05:24 > 0:05:25Pictures show the North Korean dictator
0:05:25 > 0:05:27looking at a new peanut shaped bomb.
0:05:27 > 0:05:29The explosion is huge.
0:05:29 > 0:05:3020 times bigger than the bomb dropped on
0:05:30 > 0:05:32Hiroshima.
0:05:32 > 0:05:34At the UN General Assembly in New York, President
0:05:34 > 0:05:38Trump makes his response.
0:05:38 > 0:05:41Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself.
0:05:41 > 0:05:43And for his regime.
0:05:43 > 0:05:45The United States is ready, willing and able.
0:05:45 > 0:05:46But hopefully this will not be necessary.
0:05:46 > 0:05:56The United States has great strength and patience.
0:06:03 > 0:06:05But if it is forced to defend itself or its
0:06:05 > 0:06:09allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.
0:06:09 > 0:06:10Speaking to the BBC, Republican Senator
0:06:10 > 0:06:12Lindsay Graham says this is
0:06:12 > 0:06:16no idle threat.
0:06:16 > 0:06:19I am 100% certain that Kim Jong-un continues to
0:06:19 > 0:06:21develop missile technology, that can hit America,
0:06:21 > 0:06:24if diplomacy fails to stop him, there will be an attack by
0:06:24 > 0:06:25the United States against his weapon systems.
0:06:25 > 0:06:28Let me tell you how the war ends, it ends with his utter
0:06:29 > 0:06:36destruction.
0:06:36 > 0:06:39Before we get to that point, it might be worth trying to
0:06:39 > 0:06:41understand why Kim Jong-un seems so determined
0:06:41 > 0:06:42to face down America with
0:06:42 > 0:06:52nuclear weapons.
0:06:57 > 0:06:59On December 17, 2011, North Korea's long reigning
0:06:59 > 0:07:04dictator, Kim Jong-il, suddenly dies.
0:07:04 > 0:07:06His 30-year-old son is thrust into the leadership with virtually
0:07:06 > 0:07:16no experience.
0:07:19 > 0:07:20As he escorts his father's coughing, Kim Jong-un
0:07:21 > 0:07:26is surrounded by powerful old men.
0:07:26 > 0:07:28Walking behind him, the most powerful of all, his uncle, Jang
0:07:28 > 0:07:29Song-thaek.
0:07:29 > 0:07:33Today, all of these old men are either dead or in prison.
0:07:33 > 0:07:35In 2014, Kim has his uncle hauled out
0:07:35 > 0:07:38of a party meeting accused of treason and executed by firing
0:07:38 > 0:07:46squad.
0:07:46 > 0:07:56Kim Jong-un is systematically eliminating all threats to his
0:07:58 > 0:07:59power.
0:07:59 > 0:08:02At Kuala Lumpur International Airport, a rotund North Korean man
0:08:02 > 0:08:07is heading for check-in.
0:08:07 > 0:08:15Moments later, CCTV cameras catch the moment
0:08:15 > 0:08:18he is attacked by two young women, who wipe liquid on his face.
0:08:18 > 0:08:20Almost immediately he starts to feel ill
0:08:20 > 0:08:21and seeks help.
0:08:21 > 0:08:23Minutes later, he's unconscious, soon he will be dead.
0:08:23 > 0:08:24The man is Kim Jong-nam.
0:08:24 > 0:08:30Kim Jong-un's older brother.
0:08:36 > 0:08:39Just a few metres away in this cafe, at one of
0:08:39 > 0:08:45those tables, four North Korean men were sitting watching.
0:08:45 > 0:08:47All four are now wanted by Malaysian authorities.
0:08:47 > 0:08:56One is reported to be a known North Korean security agent.
0:08:56 > 0:08:58After the attack here was over they got up and
0:08:58 > 0:08:59headed for departures.
0:08:59 > 0:09:01Kim Jong-nam has been poisoned with VX, a rare
0:09:01 > 0:09:04and deadly nerve agent.
0:09:04 > 0:09:05Almost certainly supplied by the agents
0:09:05 > 0:09:10sent by his younger brother.
0:09:10 > 0:09:20Why would Kim Jong-un want his older brother dead?
0:09:20 > 0:09:22In the South Korean capital, Seoul, I've come to meet a
0:09:22 > 0:09:28man who once served in Kim Jong-un's palace guard.
0:09:28 > 0:09:29He describes the regime obsessed with security and
0:09:30 > 0:09:33paranoid about being overthrown.
0:09:33 > 0:09:36TRANSLATION:To the Kim family everyone is a potential enemy.
0:09:36 > 0:09:37The North Korean military, the General
0:09:37 > 0:09:39staff, the entire North Korean population.
0:09:39 > 0:09:40Anyone who opposes Kim is an enemy.
0:09:40 > 0:09:50Even blood relatives.
0:09:52 > 0:09:55This man says Kim's nuclear quest is likewise about survival.
0:09:55 > 0:09:59And that it intensified after the overthrow of
0:09:59 > 0:10:06Libyan dictator Colonel Gaddafi in 2011.
0:10:06 > 0:10:10The reason why the Kim family is obsessed with developing nuclear
0:10:10 > 0:10:13weapons is to protect and maintain the regime.
0:10:13 > 0:10:16If the US attacks the north, it will use everything to
0:10:16 > 0:10:17strike back.
0:10:17 > 0:10:19But Kim will not risk losing the regime by attacking
0:10:19 > 0:10:23first.
0:10:23 > 0:10:25Kim Jong-un is not stupid.
0:10:25 > 0:10:26Nuclear weapons serve another purpose.
0:10:26 > 0:10:36To secure Kim's own power and legitimacy.
0:10:40 > 0:10:42In every recent test he has been there, personally
0:10:43 > 0:10:44supervising, cigarette in hand.
0:10:44 > 0:10:54President Trump calls him little rocket man.
0:11:04 > 0:11:07But to his own people Kim is now the leader who has taken
0:11:07 > 0:11:09their country into a very exclusive club.
0:11:09 > 0:11:10It is no small feat.
0:11:10 > 0:11:12The question now is can anything be done
0:11:12 > 0:11:15to stop him short of war, that everyone says they do not want.
0:11:15 > 0:11:18For us, in a way, the most important thing is not whether he's homicidal,
0:11:18 > 0:11:19it's whether he's suicidal.
0:11:19 > 0:11:24Because whether we go to war or not, it
0:11:24 > 0:11:26might well depend upon whether we think deterrence works, or whether
0:11:26 > 0:11:27we need a preventive war.
0:11:27 > 0:11:29Because we can't fall back to deterrence.
0:11:29 > 0:11:31If he's not suicidal, his just homicidal, then I'm
0:11:31 > 0:11:41prepared to argue let's rely on deterrence.
0:11:53 > 0:11:55At Gunsan airbase in South Korea, the
0:11:55 > 0:11:59United States air force is practising for war with the North.
0:11:59 > 0:12:09I'm getting a very rare opportunity to see what that means.
0:12:12 > 0:12:16Flying in the back-seat of an F-16 fighter.
0:12:16 > 0:12:26Up front is Colonel Steve Tittel, callsign Wolf II.
0:12:33 > 0:12:36We're heading out on what they call here a red flag.
0:12:36 > 0:12:39Simulated air to air combat.
0:12:39 > 0:12:41We're going to go ahead and we're going to
0:12:41 > 0:12:44engage them.
0:12:44 > 0:12:46OK.
0:12:46 > 0:12:51Our job will be to play a North Korean intruder.
0:12:51 > 0:12:57Up ahead, two blue team F-16s are waiting to stop us.
0:12:57 > 0:12:59We're going to engage the one on the right side.
0:12:59 > 0:13:01Passing right over the top of us.
0:13:01 > 0:13:11Here comes the second one.
0:13:24 > 0:13:26Wolf II makes repeated high G turns as he
0:13:26 > 0:13:29tries to get a missile lock on the defending aircraft.
0:13:29 > 0:13:31In the back, it feels like an elephant is sitting on
0:13:32 > 0:13:40my chest.
0:13:40 > 0:13:43To stay in the air and keep fighting, these jets need to be
0:13:43 > 0:13:51refuelled once every hour and a half.
0:13:51 > 0:13:55So we're about to go up and top up our fuel tank, there is a tanker
0:13:55 > 0:13:57just up ahead of us here.
0:13:57 > 0:14:04We'll get some fuel.
0:14:04 > 0:14:11OK, can see the tanker now.
0:14:11 > 0:14:13This is not a game, there is a very serious point.
0:14:13 > 0:14:15If there were a conflict, you'd have a fairly
0:14:15 > 0:14:16daunting task.
0:14:16 > 0:14:19Any time, but especially this conflict is one that
0:14:19 > 0:14:20you really don't want to see if you can avoid it, but...
0:14:36 > 0:14:38This is deterrence at work.
0:14:38 > 0:14:40Wolf two and his fellow pilots practice every
0:14:40 > 0:14:43day so that North Korea knows if it ever attacked the South it would be
0:14:43 > 0:14:48attacking the United States, too.
0:14:48 > 0:14:51I want to be ready because I want to send
0:14:51 > 0:14:52the message of deterrence, and
0:14:52 > 0:14:55the message of, leave us alone, you don't want to mess with us.
0:14:55 > 0:14:57But if you make the mistake of straying
0:14:57 > 0:15:00across touchline, may God have mercy on the Wolf Pack's prey, because we
0:15:00 > 0:15:03are ready.
0:15:03 > 0:15:11Readiness is our currency and we have money in the bank.
0:15:11 > 0:15:14For over 60 years, this strategy of being ready to fight tonight has
0:15:14 > 0:15:17kept the peace.
0:15:17 > 0:15:20But North Korea has never had the ability to directly
0:15:20 > 0:15:21strike the United States.
0:15:21 > 0:15:31Until now.
0:15:40 > 0:15:43On November 28, North Korea again shocks the world.
0:15:43 > 0:15:45In the middle of the night it launches a new missile.
0:15:46 > 0:15:50This one is huge.
0:15:50 > 0:15:52Much more powerful than anything Pyongyang has launched
0:15:52 > 0:15:53before.
0:15:53 > 0:15:56Large enough to carry a nuclear warhead all the way to
0:15:56 > 0:16:06Washington, DC.
0:16:06 > 0:16:08Two hours later, President Donald Trump tries to
0:16:08 > 0:16:09sound calm as he absorbs the news.
0:16:09 > 0:16:11Thank you very much.
0:16:11 > 0:16:13As you probably have heard, and some of you have
0:16:13 > 0:16:16reported, a missile was launched a little while ago from North Korea.
0:16:16 > 0:16:18I will only tell you that we will take
0:16:18 > 0:16:19care of it.
0:16:19 > 0:16:22We have general matters in the room with us and we've had a
0:16:22 > 0:16:23long discussion on it.
0:16:23 > 0:16:32It is a situation that we will handle.
0:16:32 > 0:16:34In the days that follow, America's most
0:16:34 > 0:16:36advanced stealth fighter jets start landing at bases in South Korea.
0:16:36 > 0:16:40It is now perhaps only months before North Korea will be able to hit
0:16:40 > 0:16:41America with a reliable nuclear tipped missile.
0:16:41 > 0:16:43Former State Department officials like David
0:16:43 > 0:16:53Straub say this fundamentally changes the equation.
0:17:02 > 0:17:04Whether we will be content to continue just
0:17:04 > 0:17:06containing North Korea as we've done when they
0:17:06 > 0:17:07can actually hit us is the
0:17:08 > 0:17:09big question.
0:17:09 > 0:17:10And it's a very difficult question.
0:17:10 > 0:17:12Because there is no way that American news can know
0:17:12 > 0:17:14for sure whether North Korea will never use
0:17:14 > 0:17:15those weapons against the
0:17:15 > 0:17:21United States.
0:17:21 > 0:17:23Even if we don't provoke them in any way that we
0:17:23 > 0:17:25regard as provocative, we can't be absolutely sure
0:17:25 > 0:17:27they won't someday attack us.
0:17:27 > 0:17:29What would it mean for America to go to war?
0:17:29 > 0:17:31In South Korea, I am on the road to the
0:17:31 > 0:17:35demilitarised zone.
0:17:35 > 0:17:37The four kilometre wide strip of land that
0:17:37 > 0:17:38separate South Korea from the North.
0:17:38 > 0:17:40This is the most heavily fortified place on earth.
0:17:40 > 0:17:42The South has hundreds of artillery pieces
0:17:42 > 0:17:52pointing north.
0:17:56 > 0:18:00The North has thousands pointing back.
0:18:00 > 0:18:01This recent North Korean propaganda video shows
0:18:01 > 0:18:11its massed artillery in action.
0:18:18 > 0:18:20For South Koreans living close to the
0:18:20 > 0:18:22demilitarised zone, this makes for very uncomfortable viewing.
0:18:22 > 0:18:24The little town of Hwacheon is just six
0:18:24 > 0:18:25kilometres from the dividing line.
0:18:25 > 0:18:27In any new conflict, people here would have only
0:18:27 > 0:18:37minutes to evacuate.
0:18:40 > 0:18:42This place was built about five years ago.
0:18:42 > 0:18:47Underneath a mountain.
0:18:47 > 0:18:48And it is absolutely vast.
0:18:48 > 0:18:50It's 100 metres long, 20 metres wide, and so
0:18:50 > 0:18:51big it's got its own echo.
0:18:51 > 0:18:53Listen to this.
0:18:53 > 0:18:59Hello!
0:18:59 > 0:19:01The shelter is designed to take over 2000 people.
0:19:01 > 0:19:03If they can make it in time.
0:19:03 > 0:19:05This 86-year-old woman is one of the few still living here
0:19:06 > 0:19:07who remembers the last Korean War.
0:19:07 > 0:19:14Are you worried there could be war again now?
0:19:14 > 0:19:16TRANSLATION:Of course I'm worried, but what can I do?
0:19:16 > 0:19:17It's up to the government.
0:19:17 > 0:19:19If they saying I should die, I'll die.
0:19:19 > 0:19:29And leave, then I'll leave.
0:19:31 > 0:19:33A much bigger target for North Korea's artillery
0:19:33 > 0:19:36is the South Korean capital, Seoul.
0:19:36 > 0:19:39Half the South Korean population lives in the greater Seoul area.
0:19:39 > 0:19:4425 million people.
0:19:44 > 0:19:46Andrei Lankov is a long-time Seoul resident and
0:19:46 > 0:19:56professor of North Korean studies.
0:19:58 > 0:20:00So 25 million people is within the shooting range
0:20:00 > 0:20:02of the North Korean artillery, which is located that
0:20:02 > 0:20:05direction, roughly, say, 20, 30 kilometres from here.
0:20:05 > 0:20:08And if we have a conflict, the city will be
0:20:08 > 0:20:10attacked by the conventional weapons which will lead to thousands of
0:20:10 > 0:20:12casualties in the first few minutes.
0:20:12 > 0:20:14Many more in the first few hours.
0:20:14 > 0:20:16If it happens, most likely the South Koreans will strike back
0:20:16 > 0:20:22and there is a second Korean War.
0:20:22 > 0:20:24A second Korean War would be bad enough.
0:20:24 > 0:20:34But this time it could go nuclear.
0:20:39 > 0:20:45That thought brings horror to the people
0:20:45 > 0:20:50of this place.
0:20:50 > 0:20:54Hiroshima.
0:20:54 > 0:20:55When that happens for you here...
0:20:55 > 0:20:57This woman still remembers vividly the sunny
0:20:57 > 0:20:59morning of the 6th of August 1945.
0:20:59 > 0:21:04She was eight years old.
0:21:04 > 0:21:06Yes, every time I come here, you know, by the
0:21:07 > 0:21:15river, I remember it quite well.
0:21:15 > 0:21:17So many people died in the river.
0:21:17 > 0:21:19Those like Keiko, who survived the world's
0:21:19 > 0:21:26first atomic attack, are worried the world has forgotten
0:21:27 > 0:21:30the true horror of nuclear war.
0:21:30 > 0:21:35We have to avoid, stop, America will use their power
0:21:35 > 0:21:37to attack North Korea, because not only Korean
0:21:37 > 0:21:39people north and south, and the Chinese, we Japanese,
0:21:39 > 0:21:40everybody will be involved.
0:21:40 > 0:21:42Even though they don't use nuclear weapons.
0:21:42 > 0:21:52But they will have a very big casualty.
0:21:57 > 0:21:59This year, Kim Jong-un has repeatedly shocked the world,
0:21:59 > 0:22:01taking giant leaps towards his goal of a full nuclear arsenal.
0:22:01 > 0:22:04He is now threatening to carry out an
0:22:04 > 0:22:08atmospheric nuclear test over the Pacific Ocean.
0:22:08 > 0:22:16If he did, President Trump might feel he has no option
0:22:16 > 0:22:21but to order a military strike.
0:22:21 > 0:22:22The president is following his instinct.
0:22:22 > 0:22:25And his instinct, if he's challenged, as he has been by the
0:22:25 > 0:22:27North Koreans, is, as he says sometimes,
0:22:27 > 0:22:28he's a counterpuncher, to
0:22:28 > 0:22:29punch back.
0:22:29 > 0:22:35This could go bad very, very quickly.
0:22:35 > 0:22:37And it could go very bad very, very quickly.
0:22:37 > 0:22:43And a lot of people can die very, very quickly.
0:22:43 > 0:22:46Winston Churchill once said that meeting jaw to jaw is better than
0:22:46 > 0:22:47war.
0:22:47 > 0:22:50But Pyongyang says it will not talk to America until it accepts
0:22:50 > 0:23:00North Korea is a legitimate nuclear state.
0:23:02 > 0:23:03Washington is adamant that will never happen.
0:23:03 > 0:23:06And with each new test, the pressure on the American
0:23:06 > 0:23:16president to act grows stronger.