Part One

:00:10. > :00:21.Each one of us as have the chance to say what kind of country we want to

:00:22. > :00:24.live in. At ten o'clock, the polling stations close after weeks, months

:00:25. > :00:28.and years of argument. We will have the answer to the question that has

:00:29. > :00:34.haunted British politics for so long, do we want to be in or out of

:00:35. > :00:38.the EU? There has been the usual round of main players casting their

:00:39. > :00:42.votes. David Cameron was out early in Westminster to cast his ballot.

:00:43. > :00:50.Other leading figures on both sides of the debate as well. There has not

:00:51. > :00:54.been, for many years, a choice that has aroused such passion, splitting

:00:55. > :00:59.families, dividing friends. This is a vote with a difference. No

:01:00. > :01:04.constituencies, no first past the post, every vote will count as equal

:01:05. > :01:09.as this country defines itself. Jeremy Vine is going to be watching

:01:10. > :01:13.for the first sign of a trend, one way or another. I'll be making my

:01:14. > :01:20.way along Downing Street, through the night, watching the votes pilot.

:01:21. > :01:26.Blue for leave, yellow for Remain. Could it be this close? Together, we

:01:27. > :01:31.will find out who is in the lead by the morning. They will be counted

:01:32. > :01:34.locally at 382 centres right across the United Kingdom and one in

:01:35. > :01:42.Gibraltar. We have reporters watching at some of the centre is

:01:43. > :01:46.likely to declare early. Babita Sharma is in Newcastle. Newcastle

:01:47. > :01:49.has been pipped to the post in general elections by local rivals

:01:50. > :01:54.Sunderland. Tonight, it is hoping to become the first area to declare a

:01:55. > :01:59.result in this historic referendum. They think, maybe, possibly, they

:02:00. > :02:04.will have a result here as early as midnight. We will be taking in the

:02:05. > :02:08.results announced locally and analysing them to build a picture of

:02:09. > :02:11.how the country voted and what the result is likely to be. John Curtice

:02:12. > :02:17.and his team have been working for months on how to interpret the early

:02:18. > :02:21.numbers to give us some clue to the answer. Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC

:02:22. > :02:24.political editor, is here to bring news from the two camps and to

:02:25. > :02:30.speculate on the look of the political world we will live in once

:02:31. > :02:40.the referendum is over. Above us, Emily Maitlis, with guests,

:02:41. > :02:45.defectors and the vanquished is and the vanquished. As the story

:02:46. > :02:47.unfolds, we will look at which parts of the campaign worked, which

:02:48. > :02:52.flopped, and if British politics will ever look the same again. The

:02:53. > :02:54.ballot box is open for just a few moments more, and the referendum

:02:55. > :03:10.night drama can begin. When Big Ben strikes ten in a

:03:11. > :03:14.general election, we released the exit poll to give the first

:03:15. > :03:18.indication of who has won. For the referendum, it is not going to be

:03:19. > :03:22.possible. Exit polls work, if they do, by comparing one election with

:03:23. > :03:27.another and measuring the change. It would be crazy to compare this

:03:28. > :03:31.referendum with the one held 41 years ago. So, patience is the

:03:32. > :03:39.watchword as we wait for the first actual declarations to come through.

:03:40. > :03:47.So, Big Ben has struck ten o'clock. We can now start trying to discover

:03:48. > :03:51.which side has carried the day come on the basis of the results that

:03:52. > :03:54.come in. Some of the polls are staying open because the weather has

:03:55. > :03:58.been so frightful in parts of Britain. If you are queueing up to

:03:59. > :04:03.vote, it stays open until you get the chance to vote. We have one bit

:04:04. > :04:07.of news from Gibraltar. It is one hour ahead, so their polls closed an

:04:08. > :04:13.hour ago. At the last general election, they have 71% turnout.

:04:14. > :04:20.This time, 84%, big turnout in Gibraltar. Enthusiasm for the vote.

:04:21. > :04:23.It is one of the things we have been looking for, how big the turnout is.

:04:24. > :04:28.The bigger the turnout, well, you will tell us? The expectation is

:04:29. > :04:34.that the bigger the turnout, the better it is for the In side. The

:04:35. > :04:38.assumption has been that the Out can have the enthusiasm, they have been

:04:39. > :04:42.racing to get to the polls, I have heard, anecdotally, stories of high

:04:43. > :04:45.turnout in almost every part of the country. Politicians have been

:04:46. > :04:51.really struck by that come anecdotes of a turnout of 70 or 80% in some

:04:52. > :04:55.places. The assumption that it helps the Remain side is just that, it is

:04:56. > :04:58.an assumption. Some politicians in the last couple of weeks have also

:04:59. > :05:02.said they have had voters in the kinds of parts of the country where

:05:03. > :05:06.people do not often bother to vote saying that this might motivate them

:05:07. > :05:11.for the first time. Nigel Farage said that his supporters were...

:05:12. > :05:19.What was it? They would crawl over broken glass. That's right. Anyway,

:05:20. > :05:24.the count is done in each area in the 382. It all comes together in

:05:25. > :05:28.the end, in one place. Jo Coburn is in Manchester Town Hall, where the

:05:29. > :05:31.Electoral Commission, as it is called, is overseeing the referendum

:05:32. > :05:38.with a very different procedure from a parliamentary election. Yes,

:05:39. > :05:42.David. You can hear the announcement is being made behind me. I'm at the

:05:43. > :05:46.command and control centre of the whole operation, here in the

:05:47. > :05:50.splendour of Manchester Town Hall. This is where the national result

:05:51. > :05:54.will be announced, on that podium just behind me over my shoulder.

:05:55. > :05:58.That is the announcement of some of the procedure that is going on this

:05:59. > :06:01.evening. Before the national result is announced, we will have other

:06:02. > :06:05.points to make you aware of. Things like the turnout, the critical

:06:06. > :06:08.turnout figure for the national picture, that will be made at some

:06:09. > :06:13.point through the night. We don't know exactly when. That will give us

:06:14. > :06:21.an idea of the tipping point on which side will have won, the 50,

:06:22. > :06:25.plus one, we are calling it, where it is mathematically impossible to

:06:26. > :06:27.catch the other. We have been told by the Electoral Commission that

:06:28. > :06:31.could be a decision by both campaigns to say, you can go ahead

:06:32. > :06:35.and announce the winner and the loser ahead of the official national

:06:36. > :06:38.result. There are other things going on as well. We will have the

:06:39. > :06:44.regional turnout figure for the North and we will have the result

:06:45. > :06:47.for that same region as well. Otherwise, through the evening, we

:06:48. > :06:51.will be seeing campaigners on both sides gathering here to see when

:06:52. > :06:58.they will be able to tell which way the land lies. The thing everybody

:06:59. > :07:02.has been asking me, I expect the same with you, Jeremy, when do we

:07:03. > :07:06.first get an inkling? What is the first result to watch for? People

:07:07. > :07:12.are so keen to see the way that the wind is blowing. What is going to be

:07:13. > :07:16.the moment, and how are we going to be able to tell what is happening?

:07:17. > :07:20.Well, join me here in Downing Street. We thought we should look at

:07:21. > :07:23.the door of Number 10 for a moment. It was the man behind that door that

:07:24. > :07:31.took the gamble on calling this referendum. David, yes, the sequence

:07:32. > :07:35.tonight is very important. Blue for Leave, yellow for Remain, we are

:07:36. > :07:39.going to build the votes up down Downing Street as they come in.

:07:40. > :07:43.Let's look at what we expect by way of timing. You peer down to the end

:07:44. > :07:46.of Downing Street, you can see the first votes appearing. None of them

:07:47. > :07:52.have been counted yet. We are putting them in, 50-50, to show what

:07:53. > :07:57.we are expecting. By midnight, we think Newcastle will be in first,

:07:58. > :08:04.head of Sunderland, probably voting to stay. That is by midnight. Now,

:08:05. > :08:09.after that, by 1am, we are expecting a rather interesting collection,

:08:10. > :08:15.Swindon, which is thought to be voting Out, if previous polls are

:08:16. > :08:20.anything to go by. Bury is 50-50, we should have that by that time of

:08:21. > :08:24.night. We will probably have Orkney as well. Then we move forward, 2am,

:08:25. > :08:34.we started here from London, places like barking, most of London is

:08:35. > :08:40.expected to vote Remain. Westminster and dealing by about 2am. By 3am,

:08:41. > :08:44.some of the big city results, the big numbers coming from the cities,

:08:45. > :08:49.the cities are very powerful because every vote is equal right around the

:08:50. > :08:53.country. By 3am, we think we will hear from Glasgow, Sheffield and

:08:54. > :08:59.Edinburgh. If it starts to be looking very tight around this time

:09:00. > :09:03.of night, 3am, 4am, that could favour Leave. It is thought that the

:09:04. > :09:09.later results will go that way. Let's see. Bye 4am, results are

:09:10. > :09:15.rushing in. We will have a torrent of places like Plymouth, Horsham,

:09:16. > :09:19.Solihull and the biggest, Birmingham, with 700,000 voters by

:09:20. > :09:24.4am. It is thought to be edging towards Leave, but it is too close

:09:25. > :09:27.to have any idea. We don't really know which way any of these are

:09:28. > :09:31.going, we are waiting for the first signs. By 5am, could it be this

:09:32. > :09:37.close? Liverpool and Manchester coming in. By six, if we don't know,

:09:38. > :09:42.we are waiting for Winchester and Leicester. If it is this tight by

:09:43. > :09:47.6am, we might get the result when waved me comes in last. Will it be

:09:48. > :09:55.that close? We will be building the votes up, blue for Leave, yellow for

:09:56. > :10:01.Remain. A night of great suspense. We have put them 50-50, but we don't

:10:02. > :10:05.know what will happen. We are joined by Nicky Morgan, the Education

:10:06. > :10:09.Secretary, from Westminster. We do not know anything, you obviously do,

:10:10. > :10:14.you are at the heart of this. What do you think is happening? Obviously

:10:15. > :10:18.we have a long night ahead. We are confident and hopeful that there

:10:19. > :10:22.will be a victory for the Remain campaign. We will have to see. I

:10:23. > :10:27.would agree from anecdotal evidence that there has been a high turnout,

:10:28. > :10:32.certainly in my own area. We think there was an 85% turnout of postal

:10:33. > :10:39.votes in the charm would cancel area. We will have to see how things

:10:40. > :10:46.transpire. Have you heard, as I have just heard, Nigel Farage has said

:10:47. > :10:52.that Remain might just edge it? Have you heard that? I have just been

:10:53. > :10:56.told that. We will see what happens. Certainly, from the campaigning I

:10:57. > :11:01.was doing, speaking to colleagues across the country, there was a lot

:11:02. > :11:05.of support for the Remain campaign, a lot of people contacting me in the

:11:06. > :11:09.last couple of days, constituents, saying they had made up their minds

:11:10. > :11:15.to decide to support the Remain campaign. This has obviously been a

:11:16. > :11:18.hard-fought contest, great passion on both sides, people are very

:11:19. > :11:24.committed to the arguments. Let's see what happens. I think,

:11:25. > :11:27.obviously, if Remain have won, we will be able to go back to our

:11:28. > :11:31.domestic agenda on Monday has a Government and get on with

:11:32. > :11:35.delivering other important manifesto commitments. Will that apply even if

:11:36. > :11:46.it is a very narrow victory for Remain? Or won't be -- the whole

:11:47. > :11:49.world have changed? If there is a clear win, that is sending a

:11:50. > :11:52.message. One of them is in limiting the reform deal that the Prime

:11:53. > :11:57.Minister secured back in February. The other thing we should not forget

:11:58. > :12:03.is that this Conservative Prime Minister has delivered an in-out

:12:04. > :12:06.referendum, something that was promised, only a year after the

:12:07. > :12:10.general election, it has been delivered, and now there are lots of

:12:11. > :12:13.other things to get on with. The campaign is over, you are a loyal

:12:14. > :12:18.supporter of the Prime Minister, what do you think of the tone of the

:12:19. > :12:22.campaign? Many people, on both sides, say it has been fought in a

:12:23. > :12:27.particularly vicious, rather bitter way that people didn't expect when

:12:28. > :12:29.it began? As I said just now, I think passions run high on both

:12:30. > :12:35.sides. People feel very strongly about this issue. Many people have

:12:36. > :12:38.been campaigning on one side or another for decades. You are going

:12:39. > :12:46.to expect that people are going to make their case with great

:12:47. > :12:51.conviction and not necessarily pull punches. I think we have made a

:12:52. > :12:57.positive campaign on the Remain side, a week ago I was launching the

:12:58. > :13:01.Women For The Main Campaign, setting out the views of women ministers in

:13:02. > :13:05.the Government across a range of areas, positive reasons to remain in

:13:06. > :13:12.the EU, and that is what we have been doing for the last few months.

:13:13. > :13:20.No doubt there have been some rather unpleasant sentiments expressed. The

:13:21. > :13:23.Nigel Farage poster, the leave.EU picture, when they tried to get

:13:24. > :13:29.tangled up in the dreadful events in Orlando. I don't think that has been

:13:30. > :13:32.very tasteful at all. People won't forget that, necessarily. It is

:13:33. > :13:37.important now that we see what the result is. As I say, then we have

:13:38. > :13:43.lots more reform in the EU, but also making sure that we can then deliver

:13:44. > :13:49.the domestic agenda we were elected on a year ago. We were watching the

:13:50. > :13:52.ballot boxes arriving in Sunderland, there is a battle going on between

:13:53. > :13:59.Sunderland and Newcastle. Some people say Sunderland is expected to

:14:00. > :14:05.vote Out, and they are not keen to get it counted too soon, because

:14:06. > :14:13.they depend on Nissan and other car companies that are likely to want to

:14:14. > :14:17.be inside the EU, but that is just a bit of mischief, really. They are

:14:18. > :14:21.rivals on the football field, so if Newcastle do win, there will be loud

:14:22. > :14:24.cheers in Newcastle and maybe Sunderland will not be too

:14:25. > :14:29.miserable. I have just heard from Nicky Morgan, one of the leading

:14:30. > :14:36.figures in the Leave campaign, Iain Duncan Smith, you heard what Nicky

:14:37. > :14:41.Morgan said, let me ask what you think has happened. People are

:14:42. > :14:45.watching your face, like they were watching her face. I hope they are

:14:46. > :14:51.not watching too hard, I have been around too long for them to be

:14:52. > :14:56.scared before we begin this process. We don't want you to be inscrutable?

:14:57. > :14:59.Having campaigned all this time, I'm very glad to find myself at the end

:15:00. > :15:07.of this, it has been pretty exhausting. I have been out all day,

:15:08. > :15:12.banging on doors, getting out the vote for Vote Leave. I genuinely

:15:13. > :15:16.don't have a sense. We are in uncharted territory. We have never

:15:17. > :15:20.have this kind of a referendum. Certainly most people's living

:15:21. > :15:24.memory, yes, in the early days when we first joined. It was different

:15:25. > :15:29.then, pretty much a foregone conclusion. This has been very

:15:30. > :15:34.tight. I was talking to Tom Watson, and we both said, we are in strange

:15:35. > :15:37.territory. Normally, we can be talking to constituencies, with

:15:38. > :15:41.constituency MPs and they will say how it is going in their areas.

:15:42. > :15:45.Here, every single vote counts for the first time. That is quite

:15:46. > :15:51.difficult. Nigel Farage seems to think he knows how it has gone? You

:15:52. > :15:56.roll your eyes? I never quite follow what he says, he often says two

:15:57. > :16:01.things at the same time. A couple of things I have picked up on today,

:16:02. > :16:06.one was that the turnout in council estates is very, very high. I have

:16:07. > :16:10.been in politics 24 years now. I don't think I will have seen

:16:11. > :16:12.turnouts like this in council estates. Turnout is high, I think,

:16:13. > :16:19.everywhere. Are you saying they will vote Leave?

:16:20. > :16:26.All I know is with a I got back from the council estates in Essex is they

:16:27. > :16:31.are up at 80%. You would would be lucky to get 30%-40% % In a general

:16:32. > :16:38.election? We don't know where we are. That makes it difficult call.

:16:39. > :16:42.People who don't normally vote are certainly voting. I'm saying, it's

:16:43. > :16:46.been hard-fought. It's been in many senses great fun. It's been if

:16:47. > :16:49.difficult much we will have to wait a bit and see what the results are.

:16:50. > :16:53.What about the tone of the campaign which, for the Tory party, for

:16:54. > :16:58.instance, people have endlessly said, it got out of hand. Do you

:16:59. > :17:02.think it got out of hand? Look, this is... There really doesn't get a

:17:03. > :17:08.bigger question than this which is, who governs you. That's just so big

:17:09. > :17:12.you're bound to end up families will be split, parties will split, you

:17:13. > :17:20.know, on both sides... You insulting the Chancellor of the Exchequer? You

:17:21. > :17:27.know. You see his nose growing longer. I was thanked by cartoonists

:17:28. > :17:32.for that comment. I don't know how I thought of that. It's the insult we

:17:33. > :17:35.didn't expect. Lies, lies... There has been a bit of that. Passions are

:17:36. > :17:40.high. I don't make bones about it. When are you dealing with an issue

:17:41. > :17:43.as big as this, that matters as much as this. Nothing matters more,

:17:44. > :17:47.really at the end of the day, it boils down to govern you. When it's

:17:48. > :17:50.like that it gets really tense. You know, as well as I, do tensions in

:17:51. > :17:53.parties are much more difficult to contain when there are differences

:17:54. > :17:58.than they are between parties. Between parties it's quite standard,

:17:59. > :18:02.you know, Conservative versus Labour, Liberal Democrats you know

:18:03. > :18:06.what they are going to do. Once a party loses their cohesion for a

:18:07. > :18:11.period, because they are in difficult sides, families break

:18:12. > :18:16.apart for things like this for a while and take chunks out of each

:18:17. > :18:22.other. But they will come back - The Tory party has been torn apart - The

:18:23. > :18:26.Conservative Party has an instinct ultimately I sense when the argument

:18:27. > :18:29.is over they will want to be back. We are in Government. We have to get

:18:30. > :18:34.on with Government whatever happens. As Churchill once said, when asked

:18:35. > :18:38.by a young MP who arrived in after the war he said, wonderful Mr

:18:39. > :18:41.Churchill on the other side are the enemy and all around are our

:18:42. > :18:45.friends. He said, no, no, on the other side are the Opposition all

:18:46. > :18:50.around you are the enemy much you know that as well as I do. People

:18:51. > :18:54.disagree in parties more passionately than with parties on

:18:55. > :18:57.the other side. If it's a narrow victory for Remain, there will be a

:18:58. > :19:01.price the Prime Minister has to pay? For instance, the Chancellor of the

:19:02. > :19:06.Exchequer has been particularly insulted, reviled by people on your

:19:07. > :19:09.side for his Budget, punishment Budget, he was going to have. Will a

:19:10. > :19:12.head roll and it might be his to bring people like you, I'm not

:19:13. > :19:17.saying you are going back into Government, to bring the party back

:19:18. > :19:19.together? I don't make a presuggestions on this one. I have

:19:20. > :19:22.been very clear about the Prime Minister. I said that whatever

:19:23. > :19:25.happens the Prime Minister has a mandate. We want him to continue.

:19:26. > :19:29.Clearly, he has to make decisions about who governs with him and who

:19:30. > :19:34.doesn't. That is his decision, either Remain or Leave there. Are

:19:35. > :19:36.lots of disagreements. Fundamentally disagreed with the Chancellor's

:19:37. > :19:39.position with regards to the Emergency Budget. Lots of us did.

:19:40. > :19:43.You know, that may well be gone. That's the end of it, really. You

:19:44. > :19:48.will stick around for a bit, aren't you? If you would like me to stick

:19:49. > :19:52.around. I would like you to. You are the only person we have here at the

:19:53. > :19:56.moment. On that very high ticket I will stick around. Within an hour we

:19:57. > :19:58.might have something more substantial to talk about. Thank you

:19:59. > :20:02.very much, Iain Duncan We are going Smith. Over to Brussels to our

:20:03. > :20:07.Europe editor, Katya Adler. Can Katya, good evening. We know

:20:08. > :20:11.Brussels have been watching this all very, very closely. What's the mood

:20:12. > :20:15.there tonight? Are they all, sort of, watching the telly and trying to

:20:16. > :20:20.interpret what's happened? Oh, yes. Of course, this was a referendum

:20:21. > :20:24.held in Britain, whether the UK stays in or leaves the EU that has

:20:25. > :20:28.huge implications for the rest of Europe. So this is being watched

:20:29. > :20:34.very closely, not just here in Brussels, but in Warsaw, Paris,

:20:35. > :20:39.Berlin, across Europe. Also across Europe today, town halls flew the

:20:40. > :20:43.Union flag in a sign of solidarity. There are plenty of Europeans who

:20:44. > :20:48.looked at the referendum today in the UK with a big dose of envy. They

:20:49. > :20:56.share a lot of those criticisms of the EU that were highlighted by the

:20:57. > :21:00.Leave campaign. So their worried leaders have talked about reform.

:21:01. > :21:04.Our referendum is seen as a warning that the EU in its current form

:21:05. > :21:09.isn't working and it needs to change. You but the big question in

:21:10. > :21:14.Europe tonight is - can leaders push for reform in the EU alongside

:21:15. > :21:19.Britain? If it votes to Remain. Or will tomb the start of more awkward,

:21:20. > :21:25.rusty relations if the UK chooses to leave? I don't want to be a sceptic

:21:26. > :21:29.about it. Hasn't the EU said it has to work to change, be more

:21:30. > :21:32.democratic, more open open, got to do this and does that and very

:21:33. > :21:36.rarely does anything? Yes, got to be closer to the people. I have been

:21:37. > :21:39.following European politician for a long time thech have constantly said

:21:40. > :21:43.it and never managed it. What is different now, in all the years I've

:21:44. > :21:48.been watching politics. I started in 1996, I have never felt the mood in

:21:49. > :21:51.Europe be more eurosceptic. If you you look across Europe, on the whole

:21:52. > :21:54.that means they want the EU to change. They are not necessarily

:21:55. > :22:00.calling for it to leave. Their leaders are worried. They are

:22:01. > :22:02.looking over their shoulders at increasingly influential

:22:03. > :22:06.eurosceptic, more nationalist minded parties. They know they need to do

:22:07. > :22:11.something. There is a push for reform from the countries of Europe.

:22:12. > :22:16.The 27 countries, apart from the UK. They say that whether or not the UK

:22:17. > :22:20.remains in the EU, they will be pushing for change, but we do know

:22:21. > :22:25.Brussels, change can take some time. Thank you very much, Katya. We will

:22:26. > :22:27.be back with you later on when we get... Well, some results in, I

:22:28. > :22:31.should say. Thank you for joining us. There is news, several

:22:32. > :22:36.Conservative Vote Leave MPs have this evening sent a letter to David

:22:37. > :22:42.Cameron saying he has, "a duty to stay on regardless of the outcome of

:22:43. > :22:45.the referendum" signatures include Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. Do

:22:46. > :22:49.they include Iain Duncan Smith? I wassen asked to sign the letter. I

:22:50. > :22:53.have been public all along to say he has a duty to stay. These are all

:22:54. > :23:01.Cabinet Ministers? I'm not in Government any longer. I assume that

:23:02. > :23:06.is why I wasn't asked. It tells you there is a significant chunk of Out

:23:07. > :23:09.Conservative MPs who feel passionate natly about this who want it get on

:23:10. > :23:12.with it after the result, whatever way it goes. It tells you that

:23:13. > :23:15.people who are loyal to the Prime Minister are worried enough about

:23:16. > :23:19.the outcome that they have felt the need, very strongly, to put in place

:23:20. > :23:24.a, sort of, scaffolding around him to try to protect him, whether or

:23:25. > :23:30.not it's an Out vote, even if it's a very close Remain. That bad feeling

:23:31. > :23:32.you discussed with Ian during this campaign among Conservative MPs has

:23:33. > :23:36.damaged the Prime Minister's reputation in the party as well as

:23:37. > :23:43.the Chancellor's. We can go to Newcastle and see if we are near

:23:44. > :23:46.getting this first result in. Well, we have had pretty dramatic scenes

:23:47. > :23:52.here within the last 15 minutes or so. There are several ballot boxes

:23:53. > :23:57.who have arrived in the hall here. The first one came in a few minutes

:23:58. > :24:00.after the polls closed here at 10.00pm. Fascinating to see the

:24:01. > :24:06.system they have got in place here in Newcastle. What they want to do

:24:07. > :24:08.is two things tonight. They want to beat their longstanding rivals,

:24:09. > :24:14.Sunderland, to declare a result before them. They also want to be

:24:15. > :24:18.the first area in this historic referendum to declare a result. Now,

:24:19. > :24:24.what they've got is a system of runners. Students, around 30 of

:24:25. > :24:28.them, getting in the boxes from the drivers in the car park, running

:24:29. > :24:33.them in, into the tables that you can see here. Their aim is to make

:24:34. > :24:38.sure that not a single table you can see is without counting taking

:24:39. > :24:44.place. There are 129 polling stations in the city of Newcastle.

:24:45. > :24:52.That means 129 ballot boxes need to make their way here. From what we've

:24:53. > :24:56.been hearing from the delivery, counting can take between 20 and 25

:24:57. > :25:01.minutes. Some people here are particularly optimistic that they

:25:02. > :25:07.may be able to get a result by 11.30pm tonight. Others, a bit more

:25:08. > :25:11.cautiously optimistic, saying midnight. It's interesting to note

:25:12. > :25:19.that, whatever happens here, in terms of the timing, 11.30pm,

:25:20. > :25:23.midnight, 12. 30am it's about voter turnout, that equates to more ballot

:25:24. > :25:27.papers. From what we have been hearing the turnout has been hide.

:25:28. > :25:33.In the region 68% to 70%. It could be higher than that. Newcastle is

:25:34. > :25:39.one of the 30 areas in the UK where the Remain camp are expected to do

:25:40. > :25:44.particularly well. This city has benefitted from EU investment to the

:25:45. > :25:49.tune of ?90 million within the last seven years or so. For a lot of

:25:50. > :25:52.people we have been speaking to it's very much about the economy and job

:25:53. > :25:58.creation in the city that they want to make sure it's secure, whatever

:25:59. > :26:05.the result is tonight. Like I say, the activity continues to flow here

:26:06. > :26:11.in the hall. Yeah, we think, if we're optimistic, possibly, let us

:26:12. > :26:14.hedge our bets, ahead of Sunderland 11.45pm. Thank you very much. It

:26:15. > :26:18.will be important. It will be the first thing we can chew over. Emily

:26:19. > :26:23.has with her two people who are already prepared to say something

:26:24. > :26:26.about all of We will talk about the markets. Their reaction to what they

:26:27. > :26:32.think is happening overnight. First, we will talk to our polling God

:26:33. > :26:37.here, John Curtis. David mentioned there is no exit poll. Explain to us

:26:38. > :26:42.why not. We have what we might call a last on the day poll from YouGov?

:26:43. > :26:44.There isn't ant exit poll. A poll where people have been asked outside

:26:45. > :26:48.the polling station what they have done. YouGov have done what they did

:26:49. > :26:51.at the time of the Scottish independence referendum and last

:26:52. > :26:54.year's general election which is to get hold of people who they have

:26:55. > :26:57.been interviewing during the campaign and ask them - what have

:26:58. > :27:02.you done? On the basis of that YouGov are saying that Remain have

:27:03. > :27:07.got 52% of the vote and Leave have got 48% of the vote. This is the

:27:08. > :27:10.first bit of public intelligence we have about the outcome of this

:27:11. > :27:15.referendum. I'm sorry there isn't an exit poll. As David already

:27:16. > :27:20.explained, methodology of that, which got it right, YouGov's poll

:27:21. > :27:23.didn't get it right last year, that relies on us being able to compare

:27:24. > :27:26.the results this time withlet results last time. Of course, there

:27:27. > :27:30.is no last time. It's, therefore, much more difficult to do. Kamal

:27:31. > :27:34.Ahmed is here, our economics editor, on the strength partly of this and

:27:35. > :27:38.partly what they think has been the sentiment of the week we have seen a

:27:39. > :27:41.strong pound Absolutely. If the markets were deciding this

:27:42. > :27:48.referendum they would already have called it for Remain. The pound is

:27:49. > :27:52.absolutely surging on the markets post-10.00pm post that poll that put

:27:53. > :27:59.Remain ahead. Nearly 150 to the dollar. That's a record high for

:28:00. > :28:05.this year. The pound has had its strongest week, one of its strongest

:28:06. > :28:09.weeks, for nearly 30 years. Clearly, investors think, from the evidence

:28:10. > :28:13.they are seeing from the polls. We think some hedge funds have taking

:28:14. > :28:18.their private polling, and looked at that. They think Remain has had a

:28:19. > :28:24.good day. They know not a lot more than we know here. Certainly in

:28:25. > :28:28.terms. Data there, the FTSE 100, the shares on the FTSE 100 have had a

:28:29. > :28:33.strong day on the markets. Certainly, the signals are that

:28:34. > :28:36.remain has won. Markets aren't political, particularly. They are

:28:37. > :28:39.not saying Remain has won, that is very, very good news. All they mean

:28:40. > :28:44.is, therefore, the uncertainty of what Leave could have brought, they

:28:45. > :28:48.#3w4r50e6d, won't now happen. So, therefore, we can start focussing on

:28:49. > :28:51.the other type of issues, the other problems that Europe has, but one of

:28:52. > :28:58.them won't be that Britain has actually left. John, in terms of

:28:59. > :29:03.early indicators, some are saying Gibraltar is the new Sunderland.

:29:04. > :29:08.When you look at that narrow gap from YouGov, what does that suggest

:29:09. > :29:15.to you are the factors at play there? Gibraltar we expect to vote

:29:16. > :29:23.for Remain. The turnout at 84% is extraordinary high. Gibraltar the

:29:24. > :29:26.implications of the UK leaving with its relation with Spain is

:29:27. > :29:31.fundamental. Newcastle and Sunderland are different. Newcastle

:29:32. > :29:34.has substantial university, plenty of graduates living there. That is

:29:35. > :29:40.the place where we expect Remain to do relatively well. In contrast,

:29:41. > :29:44.Sunderland, much more working-class. Smaller university community. That

:29:45. > :29:48.is somewhere where we would expect leave Leave not to do #w8, but

:29:49. > :29:53.relatively well. If the Remain side were to win in Sunderland that would

:29:54. > :29:58.be good news for them. That would be an indication that, perhaps, indeed

:29:59. > :30:05.we have voted to remain. The truth is, even if the 52-48 from YouGov is

:30:06. > :30:09.right. The Leave side might narrowly lead in Sunderland. We have had

:30:10. > :30:16.different weather in the north and south of the country, we wonder

:30:17. > :30:22.whether that will have played out? Back to David.

:30:23. > :30:27.We are so wet here, we thought people wouldn't turn up, we thought

:30:28. > :30:34.I might do the broadcast on my own. You will see it when we go to

:30:35. > :30:37.Broadcasting House, this is the facade of Broadcasting House in

:30:38. > :30:41.London. All Saints Church on the right, this famous building, home to

:30:42. > :30:47.the BBC, from which the voice of the BBC has gone out across the world

:30:48. > :30:50.for scores of years. Tonight, there will go the figures. You will see

:30:51. > :30:56.the scoreboard that tells us Britain's future. Passers-by on the

:30:57. > :30:59.street, that are not watching the television or listening to the

:31:00. > :31:10.radio, will be able to see what has happened. So, we will have more back

:31:11. > :31:15.here, but let's just first of all have, as important, as always, a

:31:16. > :31:18.round of the news. Counting has begun of millions

:31:19. > :31:25.of votes cast across the UK A record 46 million people

:31:26. > :31:28.were entitled to vote on whether to Remain In or to Leave

:31:29. > :31:31.the European Union. The first results are likely to be

:31:32. > :31:34.announced in the early hours of tomorrow morning,

:31:35. > :31:36.with the final outcome expected In the south-east flooding,

:31:37. > :31:39.caused by heavy rain, led to several polling stations

:31:40. > :31:41.having to be relocated. Here's our political

:31:42. > :31:46.correspondent, Iain Watson. This report contains some flashing

:31:47. > :31:49.images. After an intense four

:31:50. > :31:51.month long campaign, it was perhaps hardly surprising

:31:52. > :31:54.that David Cameron and his wife, Samantha, were keen to vote not long

:31:55. > :32:06.after the polls opened this morning. Tonight, some Conservative MPs have

:32:07. > :32:11.sent a letter of support, urging him to stay on, no matter what the

:32:12. > :32:20.result. Boris Johnson was amongst the last to vote to Leave, declaring

:32:21. > :32:23.that democracy has been served. He was also a signatory to the letter

:32:24. > :32:24.urging David Cameron to stay in post.

:32:25. > :32:27.The last referendum on EU membership was four decades ago, in 1975,

:32:28. > :32:30.some voters will remember it well, others were having their say

:32:31. > :32:33.And, yes, that even includes Nigel Farage, he's made this

:32:34. > :32:36.referendum the mission of his entire political career.

:32:37. > :32:42.I've wanted this vote, you know, all my adult life.

:32:43. > :32:47.It is now reported he thinks Remain might have the edge.

:32:48. > :32:50.The SNP had warned that Brexit could lead to another referendum

:32:51. > :32:52.on Scottish independence, but in Glasgow the party's pro-EU

:32:53. > :32:54.leader, Nicola Sturgeon, voted to Remain and sounded

:32:55. > :33:01.The Electoral Commission said voting had been busy and brisk and some

:33:02. > :33:03.voters had to demonstrate greater determination than the politicians

:33:04. > :33:10.Some refused to be put off by a little bit of rain,

:33:11. > :33:12.but one polling station, in south-West London,

:33:13. > :33:17.In this referendum, every vote counted.

:33:18. > :33:22.There were no marginal contituencies, so decisions taken

:33:23. > :33:25.by each of us, in polling stations like this up-and-down the country,

:33:26. > :33:28.will now reverberate, not just at Westminster,

:33:29. > :33:29.not just in Brussels, but in major capitals

:33:30. > :33:36.The official UK-wide result will be delivered here, in Manchester,

:33:37. > :33:42.It could of course be close, but what would happen

:33:43. > :33:46.If it's a dead heat, then it's a dead heat.

:33:47. > :33:51.It's an advisory referendum and that's what I would declare.

:33:52. > :33:53.Whatever the voters' verdict, this referendum will have

:33:54. > :33:59.It's not clear yet whether there'll be an outpouring of peace and love

:34:00. > :34:00.between former opponents or whether divisions

:34:01. > :34:17.The pound has risen to its highest level this year against the dollar

:34:18. > :34:23.and is on track for one of the strongest weekly performances for

:34:24. > :34:24.many years. When the New York stock exchange closed, it was trading at

:34:25. > :34:30.just over $1. A man has been jailed for life

:34:31. > :34:33.for plotting a beheading on the streets of London,

:34:34. > :34:35.inspired by so-called Islamic State, which could have

:34:36. > :34:37.targetted a poppy seller. 23-year-old Nadir Syed

:34:38. > :34:39.was arrested in November 2014, One of the world's longest running

:34:40. > :34:48.civil wars, in Colombia, has been brought to an end

:34:49. > :34:51.after more than 50 The so-called FARC rebels have

:34:52. > :34:55.signed a deal to lay down their arms following three

:34:56. > :34:57.years of negotiations. More than 200,000 people were killed

:34:58. > :35:05.during the conflict. As we've been hearing,

:35:06. > :35:07.storms and heavy rain have caused serious flooding in parts of London

:35:08. > :35:10.and in south-east England. Several commuter and Underground

:35:11. > :35:12.lines in the capital suffered There were more problems this

:35:13. > :35:17.evening as commuters tried to get Players from the three

:35:18. > :35:23.Home Nations who've made it through to the knockout stages

:35:24. > :35:25.of Euro 2016 - England, Wales and Northern Ireland -

:35:26. > :35:29.have been speaking of their hopes. England face Iceland

:35:30. > :35:32.on Monday, but it's Wales and Northern Ireland that are first,

:35:33. > :35:34.going head-to-head on Saturday. Our sports correspondent,

:35:35. > :35:38.Olly Foster, reports. Between them, they've been waiting

:35:39. > :35:44.88 years to see their teams play on the big stage,

:35:45. > :35:47.win or lose, the fans have been The Wales and Northern Ireland

:35:48. > :35:51.players have given their all and been rewarded -

:35:52. > :35:53.a match against each other, The atmosphere we'll be tremendous,

:35:54. > :36:03.as good as maybe any You know, our fans have been

:36:04. > :36:06.terrific. You've seen what we've all seen,

:36:07. > :36:09.you know, how good they've been And the Welsh fans will be

:36:10. > :36:15.very, very similar. Northern Ireland found out that

:36:16. > :36:17.they'll be playing Wales after this result last night,

:36:18. > :36:20.the Republic of Ireland's late winner against Italy that

:36:21. > :36:23.saw them go through. Their fans' unwavering support has

:36:24. > :36:26.been a tournament highlight. National pride is certainly

:36:27. > :36:28.something that will be driving on the Welsh as they get ready

:36:29. > :36:31.for the Northern Irish. All happy to be playing for Wales

:36:32. > :36:38.and honouring the nation, trying to do everybody proud and,

:36:39. > :36:43.for us, that's, I suppose, the biggest responsibility we've got

:36:44. > :36:46.is to make our country proud of us That match in Paris on Saturday

:36:47. > :36:51.of course guarantees that there's going to be a Home Nation

:36:52. > :36:54.in the quarter-finals. Here at their training camp

:36:55. > :36:57.in Chantilly, England should be feeling much happier

:36:58. > :36:58.about their chances That's because they're facing

:36:59. > :37:04.Iceland, the lowest-ranked With a population the size

:37:05. > :37:09.of Leicester, this is how the commentator on national

:37:10. > :37:11.television described their injury-time winner

:37:12. > :37:16.against Austria. England's job will be

:37:17. > :37:21.to keep him quiet. They've done well so far,

:37:22. > :37:26.but we know it's going to be a tough It's important we play with a real

:37:27. > :37:35.high-tempo and make them work, try and tire them out and then take

:37:36. > :37:38.the chances when they come. We have to be ruthless and try

:37:39. > :37:41.and punish them them England's punishment for finishing

:37:42. > :37:47.behind Wales in their Group is a path towards the final,

:37:48. > :37:49.fraught with danger. European giants lie in wait

:37:50. > :37:53.beyond the next round. The trouble is, Iceland

:37:54. > :37:57.won't be scared either. Olly Foster, BBC News,

:37:58. > :38:02.Chantilly. I'll be back with more updates

:38:03. > :38:05.throughout the night. And now the waiting -

:38:06. > :38:33.to find out if London is in favour of remaining

:38:34. > :38:36.in the European Union or leaving. Let's cross now to our political

:38:37. > :38:38.editor, Tim Donovan, who is at Guildhall where the result

:38:39. > :38:48.will be declared sometime There is a' the hope and intention.

:38:49. > :38:54.No counting going on heemplt the counting is going on in the 33

:38:55. > :39:01.London boroughs. The votes currently being taken to those locations, from

:39:02. > :39:06.3,800 polling stations. Speculation that the weather may affect the

:39:07. > :39:11.delivery of those votes but, on the other hand, the reports are turnout,

:39:12. > :39:16.anecdotally, anyway, has been high and London could have, as we know,

:39:17. > :39:23.an important impact with 5 million voters. It's mayor, new mayor, Sadiq

:39:24. > :39:27.Khan voted earlier this morning. No secret about the way he was going.

:39:28. > :39:34.He has been very vocal in calling for London and the UK to remain.

:39:35. > :39:37.It is the most important vote of my generation.

:39:38. > :39:41.The European Union, imperfect as the European Union is,

:39:42. > :39:44.it is crucial for jobs, for trade, for investment, for low prices and

:39:45. > :39:48.if we have decided to leave, then we've left for good.

:39:49. > :39:55.So each of the boroughs will do its own counting. Relate result here. So

:39:56. > :39:59.we will get results of boroughs through the night. It is thought

:40:00. > :40:03.Wandsworth may be the first one, around 12.30. The City of London,

:40:04. > :40:10.where we are here, could follow soon after. But the realistic expectation

:40:11. > :40:15.is you won't get London-wide declaration until at least 5.00am

:40:16. > :40:18.and we know recent experience shows us, doesn't it, Riz, that things

:40:19. > :40:18.don't always go smoothly in the capital.

:40:19. > :40:23.It certainly does. Commuters had a difficult journey

:40:24. > :40:26.home tonight after flash flooding brought widespread disruption

:40:27. > :40:28.to parts of the capital. A month's worth of rain fell in just

:40:29. > :40:30.a couple of hours overnight. This was the scene at Waterloo

:40:31. > :40:33.earlier this evening. the transport network.

:40:34. > :40:43.and cancellations across Fire crews battled throughout

:40:44. > :40:45.the day to pump out water Most of the water's gone

:40:46. > :40:54.but the mess remains, hours Didn't really understand

:40:55. > :41:06.what was going on. I thought I was in a dream

:41:07. > :41:13.and then realised I wasn't. It was a morning of cleaning up

:41:14. > :41:15.the best they could. Dozens of homes here finding

:41:16. > :41:17.themselves under a foot of water Liz Owen managed to rescue

:41:18. > :41:27.lots of her valuables. Sewage was coming

:41:28. > :41:36.out of the toilets. We're just trying to make plans

:41:37. > :41:44.to pack up what we can and find some This basement flat around

:41:45. > :41:50.the corner faired no better. We were in about this

:41:51. > :41:52.much worth of water. We are all basements,

:41:53. > :41:58.so it was everywhere. All in the bottom of our drawers,

:41:59. > :42:01.all in the bottom of the wardrobes. He was floating around

:42:02. > :42:06.like he was in an arc. Outside was the worst and you know,

:42:07. > :42:13.it was at least a foot, The flooding also caused roads to be

:42:14. > :42:18.shut in Battersea but out in Romford 60 homes were flood

:42:19. > :42:20.when the River Rom burst its banks and in Canning Town,

:42:21. > :42:23.the DLR station was shut And on referendum day,

:42:24. > :42:27.Kingston upon Thames one of the boroughs that had to move

:42:28. > :42:30.polling stations Commuters, too, have faced

:42:31. > :42:35.difficult journeys with tube We have been successful in

:42:36. > :42:41.progressively opening more railway The rain is forecast to stop this

:42:42. > :42:46.evening and we have more people out this evening and throughout

:42:47. > :42:49.the night to improve the resilience of the network,

:42:50. > :42:52.so we can deliver the best service we can this evening

:42:53. > :42:55.but I would advise people The Fire Brigade said it dealt

:42:56. > :43:00.with more than 500 calls in just They've spent the day cleaning

:43:01. > :43:07.up across the capital. The world's longest

:43:08. > :43:09.and tallest tunnel slide opens The Orbit slide, on the Queen

:43:10. > :43:15.Elizabeth Olympic Park, is not As our reporter Marc Ashdown

:43:16. > :43:20.found out. Welcome to the top

:43:21. > :43:24.of the Orbital Tower. We're 76m above street level

:43:25. > :43:26.and you can see Now from tomorrow, getting down

:43:27. > :43:34.from here is going to be A 40 second descent,

:43:35. > :43:41.at speeds of a 15 miles per hour. A little wit woozy,

:43:42. > :43:55.a little wit woozy. Well, that pleasurable experience

:43:56. > :43:57.will set you back ?15. Well, you can judge

:43:58. > :44:05.for yourself from tomorrow. Well, after today,

:44:06. > :44:16.let's get the latest Certainly a roller coaster wlth over

:44:17. > :44:19.the past day. The vicious thunderstorms that caused the

:44:20. > :44:23.problems problems a fading and tomorrow a decent day. It won't be

:44:24. > :44:30.as humid. Quite humid and muggy tonight. A another difficult night

:44:31. > :44:35.for sleeping. Not as warm as last night, dropping down to 15 by dawn.

:44:36. > :44:41.Tomorrow, decent day, dry, bright sunny spells and it won't be that

:44:42. > :44:47.humid A few showers during the day, maybe. In the sunshine feeling warm,

:44:48. > :44:50.22, 23. One or two showers possible in the evening but most places

:44:51. > :44:55.staying dry overnight. A fine start to the weekend. There will be

:44:56. > :44:57.showers on Saturday. Sunday looks dry and hopefully Monday dry, too,

:44:58. > :45:01.the start of Wimbledon. That's all from the London

:45:02. > :45:31.team this evening. Tom Watson has joined us. Good

:45:32. > :45:47.evening. Do you know something we don't know? No. Ian was saying he

:45:48. > :45:53.has seen an 80% turnout on council estates. The Leave campaign are

:45:54. > :45:57.hoping it is the Brexit vote coming out. Do you think it was a likely

:45:58. > :46:06.interpretation? I don't know how anybody can say that. All around the

:46:07. > :46:10.country, our teams say there has been a good turnout. During the

:46:11. > :46:17.campaign, you were quite critical in a polite, famously gentle and polite

:46:18. > :46:23.way, about the way Labour was perceived by the voters. We have to

:46:24. > :46:28.redouble our efforts, you said. What was the problem?

:46:29. > :46:33.It was certainly in the mid part of the campaign. I think we have

:46:34. > :46:37.improved on that in the last sort of 10 days of the campaign. We just had

:46:38. > :46:44.very difficult... It was difficult for us to get air time. When you

:46:45. > :46:47.have these kind of big figures and the Government slugging it out it

:46:48. > :46:52.was difficult to get our message over. We took an early decision we

:46:53. > :46:55.wanted a separate Labour In campaign because we thought we had things we

:46:56. > :46:58.had to say that David Cameron couldn't or wouldn't say,

:46:59. > :47:01.particularly about, woers' rights, particularly about the kind of

:47:02. > :47:06.social Europe, a workers Europe we wanted to see in the future. Your

:47:07. > :47:11.leader, Jeremy Corbyn, famously said, when asked, on a scale of one

:47:12. > :47:15.to ten, are in in favour of the EU he said seven-and-a-half? He did.

:47:16. > :47:19.Not a great battle cry for the Labour Party? He said it in

:47:20. > :47:24.fantastic style in a white fur coat as well. It deeply impressed me,

:47:25. > :47:29.David. What I think it showed was. He is in touch with with where the

:47:30. > :47:32.British people are. He consistently said he wanted us to remain in the

:47:33. > :47:36.European Union but reform the European Union. You know, he sees it

:47:37. > :47:39.as an imperfect institution that needs reform. You can only do that

:47:40. > :47:43.if you're around the negotiating table. On one of the key issues,

:47:44. > :47:48.immigration, you will remember he was asked whether there was any

:47:49. > :47:52.upper limit, he said no. You feel that, actually, Labour should focus

:47:53. > :47:56.on the levels of immigration if it's to keep the support of party

:47:57. > :48:01.members? We certainly both agree we needed to look at at the impact of

:48:02. > :48:04.the rules across the EU on the other hand how that lites labour markets.

:48:05. > :48:09.We did try in the campaign to get positive suggestions over. We think

:48:10. > :48:15.there are things you can do now. We wanted to reinstate the Migrant

:48:16. > :48:19.Impact Fund. It helps communities dealing with migrants with school

:48:20. > :48:23.provision and GP provision. We also think the Government could end this

:48:24. > :48:28.unscrupulous practice of some employers advertising jobs in the UK

:48:29. > :48:35.abroad but not in the UK. It's manifestly unfair. Do you think that

:48:36. > :48:39.Labour supporters will divide 50/50 on this issue of whether to stay in

:48:40. > :48:43.or out? I think we - we will ask Iain Duncan Smith, he's here. A lot

:48:44. > :48:47.of people on the Brexit side will be saying that those are the people who

:48:48. > :48:51.are going to vote for Leave? I simply don't know. I can only go on

:48:52. > :48:55.what the recent polls say. Of course, we shouldn't believe that

:48:56. > :49:00.anything we read in the polls these days. It certainly seemed to me

:49:01. > :49:05.about 68% of Labour supporters were voting to Remain. If that turns out

:49:06. > :49:08.to be the case it will show that more of our supporters supported our

:49:09. > :49:12.position than any other political party much I don't think we can tell

:49:13. > :49:16.that either. Do you agree with that Iain? I haven't seen any real

:49:17. > :49:20.figures about it. You were talking about 80% turnout in council estates

:49:21. > :49:24.and thinking that was going to benefit the Leave side? I wasn't

:49:25. > :49:28.making a pregeneral election. The high turnout in the housing estates

:49:29. > :49:31.suggests something peculiar. Something has engaged them and they

:49:32. > :49:34.want to turn out. There have been big issues in the campaign which

:49:35. > :49:39.have a lot of the debate centred around what has been the impact of

:49:40. > :49:42.uncontrolled migration from the European Union on low skilled

:49:43. > :49:46.workers and some of the Bank of England staff made it very clear

:49:47. > :49:50.that has pushed wages down. This has posed a big challenge for Labour,

:49:51. > :49:52.Tom will be the first to accept admit this, in various areas,

:49:53. > :49:56.particularly around northern England, there has been an issue

:49:57. > :50:00.about this and the east of England where they feel nobody has been

:50:01. > :50:04.talking to them. That is the big debate on theest states they say -

:50:05. > :50:08.no-one bothers with us and we have a real When we get problem. Our first

:50:09. > :50:12.result in, what we and you will be looking for is some indication of

:50:13. > :50:18.what it means. Now, we've tried to work out a way of assembling these

:50:19. > :50:21.382, we have to call them, they are actually local authorities, where

:50:22. > :50:26.the count is done, these counting centres, 382 of them. We have worked

:50:27. > :50:30.out a way... Well, Jeremy and John Curtice have, of trying to measure,

:50:31. > :50:34.when you get the first result or second result in, what does it

:50:35. > :50:39.actually mean. You have to watch quite carefully. It's complicated

:50:40. > :50:45.but it makes very good sense. I think it did when I saw it. Let me

:50:46. > :50:50.show you our counting index. He we will come back to it again and

:50:51. > :50:57.again. 382 county areas. On the wall here they are in alphabetical order.

:50:58. > :51:01.They are in size is crucial here. The bars size denotes the number of

:51:02. > :51:04.people in that counting area. For example, over here, Northern

:51:05. > :51:10.Ireland, for our purposes counting as one area, the longest bar. A tiny

:51:11. > :51:14.one just there, a small bar. We have put 50/50, blue for leave, yellow

:51:15. > :51:17.for remain, we have no results in. It's a way of showing you the

:51:18. > :51:23.counting areas laid out in an index. We can go one better. Let me show

:51:24. > :51:28.you what happens if I order them, based on the analysis we've done

:51:29. > :51:34.from most Leave to most Remain. Right over here, the counting areas

:51:35. > :51:37.that we think are most likely to vote Leave, based on an analysis of

:51:38. > :51:41.how many pensioners who are likely to vote Out, how many graduates

:51:42. > :51:45.likely to vote In and other factors. Right at the far end you can see how

:51:46. > :51:50.many there are, 382, the most likely to vote Remain. As results come in,

:51:51. > :51:53.we will see where the counting area is on this index. We will be able to

:51:54. > :51:58.say - that's maybe not what we expected. It's a surprise or perhaps

:51:59. > :52:01.the Leave vote is stronger than we thought, etc lechlt me focus a bit

:52:02. > :52:10.for you and show one end of this index. We flashed the 40. The most

:52:11. > :52:16.Leave areas. I will show you on the map. You can see where they are

:52:17. > :52:21.gathered. A lot in the east of England, Thames gateway, etc. I will

:52:22. > :52:25.name them for you. The most Leave area, according to our analysis, in

:52:26. > :52:29.the country, the place most likely to vote Out is Boston in

:52:30. > :52:34.Lincolnshire. Crucial to us are one or two areas that are coming in

:52:35. > :52:40.early. Which might give us an early sign. Castle Point, for example, on

:52:41. > :52:50.the far end of euroscepticism. Also, let's have a look, one other we are

:52:51. > :52:55.being looking for Basildon. We will put the colours in proportionately

:52:56. > :53:00.according to the vote. The winning colour will be on the top. Worth

:53:01. > :53:04.watching out for Basildon and Castlepoint to see whether the Leave

:53:05. > :53:10.vote is as strong in the areas as we expect I will take you to the Remain

:53:11. > :53:13.end. We will look at the 40 here. We talked a lot about Newcastle coming

:53:14. > :53:17.in first and so on. That's far off to this end on Remain much I will

:53:18. > :53:26.show you where. This will be a result to watch for. Here are the

:53:27. > :53:31.Remains. Wandsworth here, thought to be early, before 1.00am much we will

:53:32. > :53:38.watch for Wandsworth. On the far end of Remain, the most euro

:53:39. > :53:45.enthusiastic Remain, Gibraltar. You can guess them, the student profile,

:53:46. > :53:49.academics voting to stay in In. City of London expected early. 7,000

:53:50. > :53:53.voters there in the Square Mile of the City of London. Newcastle, which

:53:54. > :53:57.we think will be first, it's in the Remain end. The 40 areas we think

:53:58. > :54:01.most likely to vote Remain. The significance of that. If the Leave

:54:02. > :54:06.vote is strong in Newcastle, you might start to think something is

:54:07. > :54:10.up. I will take you baccalaureate to our index. We have the colours now

:54:11. > :54:18.because we have no results. When the results come in I grey them out. We

:54:19. > :54:23.will see whether this index can give us an early sense of the drift of

:54:24. > :54:29.the results, David. Thank you, Jeremy. Tom Watson and Iain Duncan

:54:30. > :54:33.Smith are slow on the takeup on this one! No, I worked it out. Oh, you

:54:34. > :54:38.worked it out, did you? They were looking at it saying - I said, do

:54:39. > :54:43.you understand it? Oh, I don't know. Jeremy, perhaps just one thing to

:54:44. > :54:52.clarify. Blue is Out, yellow is Remain. Yes. How have you worked out

:54:53. > :54:55.the likeliest to be exit and the likest to be Remain. What are the

:54:56. > :54:59.assumptions you made and maybe they will understand it. Half a dozen

:55:00. > :55:05.factors. Things like the greater number of pensioners in an area, the

:55:06. > :55:09.more likely it is to vote Out. More senior citizens tend to vote Out.

:55:10. > :55:14.Got it. Not looking at you there, Iain. Got it. The more graduates in

:55:15. > :55:20.an area, the more likely it is to vote In. You look at the number of

:55:21. > :55:25.ethnic minority voters in an area. You look at Ukip support in the last

:55:26. > :55:28.elections. We have half a dozen, put them together - Tom is looking

:55:29. > :55:33.doubtful here - He's getting it. Slowly. What will be interesting, we

:55:34. > :55:40.could have a situation where the eskwens is correct it moves one way

:55:41. > :55:45.or the another. Later on we will show you the middle 40. That is

:55:46. > :55:48.where the action will be. We expect those to go 50/50 in the event of a

:55:49. > :55:53.split result across the country. That is the place you look for - A

:55:54. > :56:01.little bit more detail, do you think. He wants it in more detail.

:56:02. > :56:07.4.00am! What we could say simply. It's like a litmus test of each

:56:08. > :56:15.result. Do you know what a litmus test is? Yes, of course I do. To

:56:16. > :56:21.take a crazy example. We said Boston comes out for Remain, very early on,

:56:22. > :56:24.Laura will be all over that. Saying, my goodness this is extraordinary

:56:25. > :56:30.much you will get a sense, I think, of what the results mean. Right.

:56:31. > :56:43.Well, while we absorb all that, let us go

:56:44. > :56:50.to Sunderland. We were told Sunderland didn't want to come first

:56:51. > :56:55.they didn't want to upset Nissan. They are not counting quite as fast

:56:56. > :56:59.as Newcastle, true? Well, I tell you what, well, I tell you what, I'm

:57:00. > :57:02.looking at those counting here and we've been talking to some of the

:57:03. > :57:05.count being officers. They are employing bank tellers who are

:57:06. > :57:09.really experienced at counting money really, really quickly. They are

:57:10. > :57:12.frantically counting. I don't know if those who are counting want to

:57:13. > :57:17.delay the result for Newcastle, I can't comment on that at all. What I

:57:18. > :57:22.can tell you is that so far we understand that Sunderland has

:57:23. > :57:27.around 207,000 people on the Electoral Register. Interestingly,

:57:28. > :57:31.89,000 of those registered for postal votes. That may delay some of

:57:32. > :57:35.the counting and some of the time that we get back when we are

:57:36. > :57:42.expecting to return am we are expecting - we were told to expect a

:57:43. > :57:48.result around 12.30am thatle might slip back to 1.00am. Those in the

:57:49. > :57:54.Remain camp spoke to the BBC saying that they were taking a look at

:57:55. > :57:59.gauging the postal results. The effort they have been putting in

:58:00. > :58:03.from the Labour campaign, the Labour Remain campaign, 26 Labour MPs in

:58:04. > :58:06.this region. 25 of those for the Remain camp much they have made a

:58:07. > :58:10.concerted effort on the doorsteps. They think they have made a

:58:11. > :58:14.difference to the Remain call or for people to back them in the Remain

:58:15. > :58:24.camp. That is the picture here so far. Expecting a result around

:58:25. > :58:28.00.30am to 1.00am it is likely to be after Newcastle. Sunderland came

:58:29. > :58:34.first in the general election. It's not going to happen this time

:58:35. > :58:38.around. Before we go to Basildon. Nigel Farage has now unconceded

:58:39. > :58:42.having - What did I tell you! You said it. I said he would do it. You

:58:43. > :58:47.said he would do both things. Some he has. Clive Myrie is in Basildon.

:58:48. > :58:50.How are things there and when do you expect to come... Incidentally,

:58:51. > :58:55.what's the turnout there, has it been very big? It's been huge,

:58:56. > :58:59.actually, David. One of the officials told me that they reckon

:59:00. > :59:03.turnout is anything from 70% to 75%. Much higher than for a normal

:59:04. > :59:07.general election. They have been counting here for about 45 minutes

:59:08. > :59:10.now. Pretty much all the ballot boxes are in. They have been pushing

:59:11. > :59:14.them in on Asda shopping trolleys, which has been a bit of a sight to

:59:15. > :59:18.behold. Bearing in mind both sides have been shopping for votes over

:59:19. > :59:22.the last few weeks maybe it's not surprising. Given that Ukip was the

:59:23. > :59:25.only party here, David, to increase its number of seats on the borough

:59:26. > :59:29.council in the local elections, you get a pretty good sense of how the

:59:30. > :59:35.wind is blowing here. This is eurosceptic country. There is no

:59:36. > :59:38.question about that. The real issue is how big the proportion of the

:59:39. > :59:42.vote the Leave campaign wins tonight. As I said, turnout has been

:59:43. > :59:46.very high. That will be crucial. The weather has been awful here

:59:47. > :59:50.throughout the day. You have needed waders to cross the road at times

:59:51. > :59:55.today. The turnout has been enormous. The percentage of the vote

:59:56. > :00:00.has been high, too. Local polls coming into the referendum today

:00:01. > :00:05.suggested that Leave might get something like 70%-75% of the vote.

:00:06. > :00:09.If that is bourne out, with the final referendum result, that could

:00:10. > :00:12.potentially suggest that Leave might do well nationally. Basildon has

:00:13. > :00:16.been a bellwether in general elections. It could be a bellwether

:00:17. > :00:22.in this referendum as well. If the Leave vote is lower than that,

:00:23. > :00:25.anything from 60%-65% that suggests that Remain have done a little bit

:00:26. > :00:29.better that could mean that Remain have done a little bit better

:00:30. > :00:35.nationally as well. We are expecting the result here about 00.30am going

:00:36. > :00:36.on to 1.00am. It will be fascinating to see what happens. Thank you very

:00:37. > :00:48.much. Let's go to Swindon. Swindon is less

:00:49. > :00:52.Brexit, but what has the turn been? We are hearing from both sides that

:00:53. > :00:56.turnout has been very high. There has been consistent polling all day

:00:57. > :01:00.long. We know in terms of postal votes there has been a particularly

:01:01. > :01:05.high return. One of the main electoral officials was telling me

:01:06. > :01:11.that by mid-afternoon, 85% of all postal votes had already been

:01:12. > :01:15.returned. That is considerably up on a general election, getting on for

:01:16. > :01:19.20% higher than you would expect at a general election. That is

:01:20. > :01:23.interesting. Here in Swindon, all boxes are here. They are all back.

:01:24. > :01:27.That happened, getting on for 15 minutes ago. They are steaming

:01:28. > :01:33.ahead, counting of the postal ballots began on the dot of ten

:01:34. > :01:36.o'clock this evening. Apologies if it sounds as if I am broadcasting

:01:37. > :01:42.from a nightclub, it feels like I am. We have had some very loud music

:01:43. > :01:47.playing. The killjoys at the BBC had it turned off for a while, I said it

:01:48. > :01:50.makes it very hard to hear David Dimbleby. They tended off and came

:01:51. > :01:54.back and said, sorry, we are putting the music back on because we can

:01:55. > :01:59.tell everybody is counting far quicker with the music on. That is

:02:00. > :02:06.why it is rather loud and difficult to hear you. I will come back to you

:02:07. > :02:11.in a moment. At this point, we welcome viewers, good evening, or

:02:12. > :02:17.good morning, watching BBC World News, with the referendum results of

:02:18. > :02:21.this important referendum that took place in Britain today. We haven't

:02:22. > :02:28.yet got any figures. We are waiting for that. We have a slight inkling

:02:29. > :02:33.it might be a narrow win for Remain, but we don't actually know, we have

:02:34. > :02:37.not had any results. We hope you find the whole thing interesting and

:02:38. > :02:41.revealing. It is a very important moment for Britain, for Europe and

:02:42. > :02:46.the rest of the world. Jane, when you expecting to get your result?

:02:47. > :02:56.Yes, we think they are pretty much on track, that is what we are being

:02:57. > :03:02.given from both sides. It could be about 12:45am. Swindon has two MPs,

:03:03. > :03:08.both conservatives. One of them said, we cancel each other out,

:03:09. > :03:13.there is one Remain and one Leave. They think Swindon, as per the

:03:14. > :03:18.modelling, Swindon will vote to leave, but perhaps only marginally.

:03:19. > :03:22.The modelling suggests that the Leave vote would be much bigger than

:03:23. > :03:27.that in Swindon if that was going to be the picture nationally. The

:03:28. > :03:30.Conservative MPs, even though one voted one way and one the other,

:03:31. > :03:34.they are both telling me they are pretty confident the overall

:03:35. > :03:39.national picture, for what it is worth, will be Remain. There could

:03:40. > :03:47.be a slight, narrow win for Leave in Swindon. We should know that by

:03:48. > :03:51.about 12:45am. I think people should be very cautious at this stage, 11

:03:52. > :03:56.o'clock, about predicting. Of course, people on the Remain side

:03:57. > :04:01.are keen to say they think it is in the bag. Nigel Farage said first of

:04:02. > :04:15.all they thought they might have lost on the Leave side, and then he

:04:16. > :04:21.said that he not conceding. Tom Watson, you spoke a bit about the

:04:22. > :04:28.Labour campaign, what you think lies ahead for the Tory party if there is

:04:29. > :04:34.just a narrow victory? It is not really for me to predict what David

:04:35. > :04:37.Cameron's future is, but I see the MPs signing that letter, he must be

:04:38. > :04:41.in trouble if they are signing a letter of support at one minute

:04:42. > :04:46.after ten. It seems there is a challenge for David Cameron, or

:04:47. > :04:49.whoever leads the Conservative Party, let's face it, we end the

:04:50. > :04:52.referendum with the country more divided than it was at the start of

:04:53. > :04:58.the referendum. It seems that some points we had been slipping into

:04:59. > :05:02.intolerance. I think it is incumbent on David Cameron to try to bridge

:05:03. > :05:06.the divide, heal some of the wounds the referendum campaign has brought

:05:07. > :05:10.about in the country. That means his leadership over the next four or six

:05:11. > :05:17.weeks is very important. How can he do that, with these divisions, which

:05:18. > :05:23.Iain Duncan Smith has been talking about, we said earlier on, families

:05:24. > :05:28.and people divided. It is a very... What can I call it? An abrupt

:05:29. > :05:33.breaking point for Britain. They have been presented with just one

:05:34. > :05:36.question. We need to hear what people were telling us. The Labour

:05:37. > :05:43.Party have to do that. We have to understand what people are saying.

:05:44. > :05:46.What can you do about it? For me, there are many, many people who did

:05:47. > :05:52.not hear or would not listen to the argument that the EU has made us a

:05:53. > :05:56.more prosperous country, and I think there is a reason for that. Over the

:05:57. > :06:00.last 30 years, the evidence has shown that the prosperity has only

:06:01. > :06:05.been shared with a very rich people. One way or another, half the country

:06:06. > :06:11.is going to be disaffected, with the politicians or the other half of the

:06:12. > :06:15.country, whichever side has won? Of course, these things will take a

:06:16. > :06:19.while to heal, in the country and in politics. Isn't that optimistic? You

:06:20. > :06:23.have asked people to make up their mind what kind of country Britain

:06:24. > :06:27.should be, half of the people that voted are going to find the other

:06:28. > :06:33.half does not want what they want? Leaving aside party politics, we are

:06:34. > :06:38.told 80% of people answering this question? Within this referendum, I

:06:39. > :06:40.agree with Tom, there have been some real thing is that political parties

:06:41. > :06:48.have now got to stop and think about. The distancing of Westminster

:06:49. > :06:51.and politics from communities far away from Westminster has been quite

:06:52. > :06:55.revealing. For the Labour Party, there is a big issue where they are

:06:56. > :06:59.worrying about how they are getting out of touch with people that they

:07:00. > :07:03.have always considered to be strong Labour supporters. For my party,

:07:04. > :07:06.it's a big issue that people that have been taken for granted as

:07:07. > :07:10.conservative for some time have become quite angry about this

:07:11. > :07:13.debate, because they feel, for the first time, they are being asked a

:07:14. > :07:16.question which they have been trying to get across about what has

:07:17. > :07:21.happened to them. It is not a case of... Tom is right, by the way, many

:07:22. > :07:25.people on low incomes do not feel like, at any stage, over the last

:07:26. > :07:30.ten years, they have at all been benefited by anything. In fact, they

:07:31. > :07:34.have seen incomes fall, and that has caused quite a lot of turmoil. There

:07:35. > :07:39.is a huge moment, for the first time we don't rely on safe and unsafe

:07:40. > :07:43.constituencies and marginals, every place in Britain has a voice now.

:07:44. > :07:46.Many places in the present system have never been able to tell us

:07:47. > :07:51.anything because nobody was asking them because they didn't matter in a

:07:52. > :07:55.general election. They do now. This is a huge reason why David Cameron's

:07:56. > :07:59.handling of this in the next few weeks will be critical. He ended up

:08:00. > :08:03.calling this referendum, conceding having to hold a referendum, really,

:08:04. > :08:11.to try to settle a problem on the right of British politics inside his

:08:12. > :08:13.own party and to hold off Ukip. What it risks unleashing his forces that

:08:14. > :08:16.the political classes, who have been surprised it even ended up feeling

:08:17. > :08:20.this close, didn't really anticipate. Many of them discovered

:08:21. > :08:23.they were more cut off from traditional bases than they

:08:24. > :08:27.realised. The handling of that is going to be absolutely critical in

:08:28. > :08:33.the weeks ahead. Let's have a look at the morning papers. It's an

:08:34. > :08:37.old-fashioned thing to do, really, considering most stuff comes through

:08:38. > :08:42.online! Anyway... They have had to make the headlines... Well, The

:08:43. > :08:49.Times saying the closest call for Britain. The Telegraph, Brexit MPs

:08:50. > :08:57.pledge allegiance to Cameron. The Prime Minister. The Daily Mail,

:08:58. > :09:02.again, not much of a story... Well, a big story, 100 billion parasite

:09:03. > :09:05.bankers. We are talking about the city, working through the night to

:09:06. > :09:14.make a killing on the referendum result. Project Reunite, The Mirror.

:09:15. > :09:19.A famous picture, we love you, we love you, Britain! The EU on the

:09:20. > :09:32.left, kissing in Britain on the right. The Sun, Bremad? I don't know

:09:33. > :09:37.what that means. Is that Glastonbury? Maybe it is a railway

:09:38. > :09:44.station! I don't know why we are mocking these headlines. We have

:09:45. > :09:48.another one coming up. The Guardian, party leaders reach out to a divided

:09:49. > :09:52.nation. You have seen it here at this table, after the bitter EU

:09:53. > :10:01.referendum. We can vouch for that. The Metro, Farage, I think it's all

:10:02. > :10:08.over, a remarking has now distanced himself from, saying he has

:10:09. > :10:15.unconceded! Nothing new there. Remember at the general election,

:10:16. > :10:21.when he unresigned? Emily? I'm going to speak to Chris

:10:22. > :10:25.Grayling. Thanks for joining us. I wonder what you're hearing about

:10:26. > :10:31.Nigel Farage? Has he conceded defeat, has he unconceded? Terrible

:10:32. > :10:36.word! I'm puzzled, frankly, I think it is too early to concede all

:10:37. > :10:41.unconcede. Have not seen any results at all. There has been a high

:10:42. > :10:46.turnout, but there has been a high turnout in areas expected to back

:10:47. > :10:48.Leave. We are getting polls suggesting Remain has won. I

:10:49. > :10:52.genuinely don't know what has happened. We need to wait until we

:10:53. > :10:57.see a proper picture. Can you confirm if your name is on this

:10:58. > :11:00.letter we are talking about? 84 signatories from Tory MPs, calling

:11:01. > :11:06.for David Cameron to stay on. Was your name one of those? Yes, it was.

:11:07. > :11:10.It's really important now that the Conservative Party, having won a

:11:11. > :11:17.general election, having promised to give the country a referendum and

:11:18. > :11:20.delivered it, and we have have a lively debate, we are going to see

:11:21. > :11:23.what the view of the people is, after that we get on with the job of

:11:24. > :11:26.governing the country, that means uniting behind David Cameron and

:11:27. > :11:31.delivering the manifesto we were elected on. You would like David

:11:32. > :11:35.Cameron to stay on if it is a narrow victory for Remain? I want him to

:11:36. > :11:39.stay regardless of the result. He has been a good Prime Minister. If

:11:40. > :11:48.we win the referendum tonight on the leave aside, we will need his skills

:11:49. > :11:50.to take us out of the European Union. If we are not successful, we

:11:51. > :11:53.need him to continue delivering the change he has been doing for the

:11:54. > :11:56.last six years. We need to get behind David Cameron and do the job

:11:57. > :12:00.we have to do for the country, as well as keeping what is a very left

:12:01. > :12:05.wing Labour opposition at bay. Do you feel the same degree of warmth

:12:06. > :12:10.towards the Chancellor? Were you one of the signatories saying they would

:12:11. > :12:14.stand against his austerity budget? I was not. I always took that with a

:12:15. > :12:19.bit of a pinch of salt. I don't think it would have happened. The

:12:20. > :12:23.reality is that this has been a lively debate, strong views on both

:12:24. > :12:26.sides. Now is the moment to say the polls are closed, it is now down to

:12:27. > :12:29.the counting of the votes of the British people. We have to accept

:12:30. > :12:32.the verdict and get on with governing as good friends and

:12:33. > :12:36.colleagues, people with a mission across this parliament to make a

:12:37. > :12:42.difference to this country. How easy is that going to be? You have 65 or

:12:43. > :12:50.so MPs signing the letter against the Chancellor. It is a mammoth task

:12:51. > :12:54.to unite a party that has seen divisions right through its heart?

:12:55. > :12:58.Of course there have been bruises as a result of the campaign, that was

:12:59. > :13:02.inevitable. This is an issue that attracts strong sentiments on both

:13:03. > :13:06.sides of the argument. There is far more that unites us as conservatives

:13:07. > :13:10.than divides us. If you look at what the Chancellor has achieved over six

:13:11. > :13:14.years, turning the economy around from the brink of Greek style ruin,

:13:15. > :13:19.to when we have the lowest payments of unemployment benefit since the

:13:20. > :13:22.1970s, he has done a great job, the government matter as to make great

:13:23. > :13:25.job, we are midway through a process of social reform that I think will

:13:26. > :13:29.make a lasting difference. We need to accept the view of the British

:13:30. > :13:33.public, we need to carry on delivering the manifesto. We have

:13:34. > :13:37.another 21 bills to get through in this Parliament, that is part of

:13:38. > :13:41.what we were elected on. It is beholden on us to unite and get on

:13:42. > :13:44.with the job. You will concede it is quite curious to hear those that

:13:45. > :13:48.have been on the opposite side for weeks now talking about their

:13:49. > :13:51.wonderful record in government. Just this week, I think you talked about

:13:52. > :13:55.the south-east becoming a very different sort of place if

:13:56. > :14:02.immigration went on and checked. Do you think that is a message that

:14:03. > :14:06.will go through to your leader? -- unchecked? It is clearly the case

:14:07. > :14:09.that if Remain wins it will be more challenging to deal with

:14:10. > :14:13.immigration. But that will not stop us has a Government listening to the

:14:14. > :14:17.will of the British people, acting on what they decided for us in

:14:18. > :14:23.relationship to the membership of the European Union, get on with

:14:24. > :14:28.doing what we can... So you can presumably negotiate with the EU if

:14:29. > :14:32.it is Remain, do you believe that? We have to carry on working within

:14:33. > :14:37.the European Union to get what is right for Britain, delivering change

:14:38. > :14:44.is what make a difference in the country. We will carry on doing

:14:45. > :14:48.everything we can in the interests of the country, off the back of the

:14:49. > :14:52.mandate we got 15 months ago. Thank you.

:14:53. > :14:57.Thank you very much indeed much we are hearing that Theresa Villiers

:14:58. > :15:02.has said she understands that Remain have edged it. We should put a

:15:03. > :15:06.massive caveat in at this point of the night. An hour on air. We have

:15:07. > :15:15.not had a single result in, so the night awaits us. David. Kettering

:15:16. > :15:20.has it its turnout. The turnout, 76%. It was 67% at the general

:15:21. > :15:26.election. More people have registered and the turnout is 76%.

:15:27. > :15:33.It is probably even more actual people voting. Look, I've just been

:15:34. > :15:40.joined by Douglas Carswell, the only Ukip MP. Now, we've got this mixed

:15:41. > :15:46.messages coming from your leader, Nigel Farage, if you still see him

:15:47. > :15:51.as your leader. Saying he thought Remain had done it, now saying he is

:15:52. > :15:55.unconceded? Well, I think we should take this with a large pinch of

:15:56. > :15:58.salt. Which bit, all of it? On the night of the general election

:15:59. > :16:01.similar pro general elections about Thanet South going the other way,

:16:02. > :16:05.which turned out to be slightly offkey. Let's look at the facts. We

:16:06. > :16:09.will see Sunderland fairly soon. Let us look at hard facts before we

:16:10. > :16:13.know. What we do know is that it's likely to be very, very close. Who

:16:14. > :16:19.would have thought, after everything that has been thrown at the Leave

:16:20. > :16:22.campaign, taxpayer funded propaganda and the rest of it. Who would have

:16:23. > :16:26.thought it would be this close? I think it's been an extraordinary

:16:27. > :16:30.campaign. I think Vote Leave has done incredibly well to narrow the

:16:31. > :16:34.gap and reduce the lead, perhaps not quite enough, perhaps they have done

:16:35. > :16:39.it quite enough. What's the future of Ukip and Ukip supporters as a

:16:40. > :16:43.party if it's not a victory for Leave? Many people after this

:16:44. > :16:47.campaign, in all parties, who perhaps feel that the leaders of

:16:48. > :16:51.their parties, on the issue of Europe and many other things, have

:16:52. > :16:55.more in common with one another in Westminster than they do with

:16:56. > :16:59.ordinary folk across the country. Many people will conclude that

:17:00. > :17:04.politics is a cartel wef need to break that cartel and need new up

:17:05. > :17:07.start parties like Ukip to break that cartel. Physical Ukip is an

:17:08. > :17:14.optimistic party that wants change and that looks to reshape the

:17:15. > :17:21.country for 2030, 2040, not back to 1950, we can be that change. Sitting

:17:22. > :17:25.ondown your left is Amber Rudd, Energy and Climate Secretary. Thank

:17:26. > :17:29.you for joining us. You were quite rude about Boris Johnson in one of

:17:30. > :17:33.the debates saying you thought the only number he understood was Number

:17:34. > :17:37.Ten, that's where he wanted to be. The mood of the campaign, the style

:17:38. > :17:43.of it, was very vicious within the Tory party I would like to think I

:17:44. > :17:47.made interesting points about climate change and women's They may

:17:48. > :17:51.have equality. Got lost at the insults levelled at Boris Johnson

:17:52. > :17:55.Boris Johnson is made of porcelain. We have a good relationship. He is

:17:56. > :17:59.not the man you want to drive you home at the end of the evening. What

:18:00. > :18:03.does that mean We should not get in the car and let him drive us out of

:18:04. > :18:09.the European Union. It's perfectly clear. You mistake me completely.

:18:10. > :18:13.Ah. There has been a lot of talk about people having disagreements

:18:14. > :18:17.within the Tory party. As Chris Grayling said earlier there has been

:18:18. > :18:20.robust discussions, there is also, I feel already, a coming together this

:18:21. > :18:22.evening, people who had strong views on different parts of the

:18:23. > :18:26.Conservative Party, already reaching out to each other and say - whatever

:18:27. > :18:30.the outcome, as Douglas said, it's too early to say, we're hopeful we

:18:31. > :18:36.will unite again afterwards. Conservative Party united is one

:18:37. > :18:39.thing. What Douglas Carswell is referring to is large numbers of

:18:40. > :18:45.voters being disaffected by that. Assume for a moment, make no

:18:46. > :18:48.assumptions about who won or lost. The country was asked to make a

:18:49. > :18:52.decision between black-and-white, are you for or against? A difficult

:18:53. > :18:56.decision. Countless people have been saying - I don't know how, I can't

:18:57. > :18:59.make up my mind. Once they made up their mind and find the other half

:19:00. > :19:04.of the country has gone the other way. They are bound, aren't they, to

:19:05. > :19:08.look for - somebody else. Some ideas to represent - There may be people

:19:09. > :19:11.who think - I was out campaigning in Hastings today. What I heard was a

:19:12. > :19:15.lot of enthusiasm from people coming up to me and saying - we rather

:19:16. > :19:17.enjoyed this period of thinking about why the European Union works

:19:18. > :19:23.for us and how Britain is stronger because of being in. It they have

:19:24. > :19:27.enjoyed the campaign. It brought them together and you canned talk

:19:28. > :19:32.about it. I think it hes has had a binding affect on people. Yes or no,

:19:33. > :19:36.In or Out? Thinking where Britain's place is in the world or whether we

:19:37. > :19:40.are better served being in the European Union or not? It will be

:19:41. > :19:44.close. A sizeable chunk of the electorate feel they haven't got

:19:45. > :19:50.their way. I want to see a new consensus. I don't want to spend 20

:19:51. > :19:56.years having divisions over Europe like we had over the past years. I

:19:57. > :19:59.would like to reach out tho those who have concerns, with the new

:20:00. > :20:03.consensus take into account those concerns. Similarly, if it is

:20:04. > :20:08.reremain we need to make sure that considerable number of people who

:20:09. > :20:11.voted to leave the European Union are represent and some of their

:20:12. > :20:17.views are taken on board. How can he this be takenen board. You say the

:20:18. > :20:22.EU doesn't rigs listen and won't alter. Than is why you want to

:20:23. > :20:25.leave? After the Scottish result there was a consensus there intoed

:20:26. > :20:30.to be devolution of powers to Scotland. If it's a narrow Remain we

:20:31. > :20:34.need to recognise that that considerable significant proportion

:20:35. > :20:40.of the electorate, who voted to leave, need to have some

:20:41. > :20:42.representation. Are you saying that the EU, after all the arbiter of

:20:43. > :20:46.these things, will listen to the voice of people who said they wish

:20:47. > :20:51.to leave and change their policy and their way of doing business? Do you

:20:52. > :20:54.think that would happen I think it might happen. Can I pick up

:20:55. > :20:58.something with Douglas. The Prime Minister said he never said he was

:20:59. > :21:02.fighting for the status quo. We are fighting to make sure the UK has a

:21:03. > :21:05.stronger role within Europe and it's good for the UK to be able to do

:21:06. > :21:08.that. We don't want things to stay still much we want to make sure we

:21:09. > :21:12.can influence the European Union so it's in our interests and is in

:21:13. > :21:17.stronger. What I agree with Douglas about is there have been issues that

:21:18. > :21:19.came out of this campaign which no Government would ignore. We need to

:21:20. > :21:24.engage with them more, listen to people more about it and address

:21:25. > :21:29.them. How do you do that? It was part of David Cameron's campaign if

:21:30. > :21:33.you stayed in you were voting for a reformed Europe. This week the

:21:34. > :21:36.President of the EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, was plain as

:21:37. > :21:39.plain could be he said there would be no more change after the February

:21:40. > :21:43.deal. February deal that David Cameron had promised was so bold,

:21:44. > :21:49.most people concede is actually pretty much tinkering around the

:21:50. > :21:51.margins? We know what the President was saying don't expect a

:21:52. > :21:54.renegotiation if you want a another referendum. My interpretations what

:21:55. > :21:57.he said is different to what you suggested. It's saying - don't come

:21:58. > :22:01.back and ask uses to have a different deal - So many members of

:22:02. > :22:05.the public want something else from the European Union We will hope to

:22:06. > :22:09.influence that to take place by, working with other European partners

:22:10. > :22:13.to do that. Also, on the renegotiation, I think people

:22:14. > :22:18.dismiss it too quickly. The fact, is on the crucial case of immigration,

:22:19. > :22:21.he got a renegotiation, the Prime Minister, whereby European Union

:22:22. > :22:25.citizens come here to work. They can't take out until they put in.

:22:26. > :22:29.They can't get full benefits for four years. That's a fundamental

:22:30. > :22:33.change. Once we vote, if we do, to Remain, that will be a change that

:22:34. > :22:36.people will appreciate. You know very well that the Prime Minister is

:22:37. > :22:41.not able to get as much as he wanted on immigration. He has not been able

:22:42. > :22:45.to get what he went in on that negotiation You under estimate what

:22:46. > :22:48.he did achieve. I don't think anyone should be under the impression

:22:49. > :22:51.because of the way people voted on Thursday the fundamental problems

:22:52. > :22:56.that affect the European Union are magically going to disappear. It's a

:22:57. > :23:00.fundamentally flawed project and the failures within it and to it will

:23:01. > :23:04.become Evermore pronounced. I think we need to recognise that. The

:23:05. > :23:08.European Union, whether we vote to leave or stay, is fundamentally

:23:09. > :23:11.flawed in it is current form. I hope if we vote to stay you will try to

:23:12. > :23:14.work within parliament to make sure we get the best for the country by

:23:15. > :23:17.working with the European Union, not always taking the position that we

:23:18. > :23:20.should leave the European Union if that's the outcome of the British

:23:21. > :23:25.people. Let's see what the result is. Indeed. I think it's going to be

:23:26. > :23:29.neck and neck. Let's hear more about the result from Jeremy, who had his

:23:30. > :23:33.beautifully explanation a moment ago about the size of the constituencies

:23:34. > :23:37.and the size of the counts. The mechanics, David much I wish I could

:23:38. > :23:42.give you the result. The way it's, working. We are used to Westminster

:23:43. > :23:46.elections and parliamentary constituencies, 650 in Westminster,

:23:47. > :23:51.roughly the same size. It's not like that for this referendum we have

:23:52. > :23:55.here a proportionate map. Each counting area is difficult. Some are

:23:56. > :23:59.bigger than others. The smallest here. The Isles of Scilly. There we

:24:00. > :24:07.are. Just down off the south-east coast. Very, very small indeed. Next

:24:08. > :24:11.to it, a big stalk here, Cornwall. Cornwall counts as one county. The

:24:12. > :24:15.height of the stalk represents the number of people in the counting

:24:16. > :24:20.areas. Later we will turn them blue and yellow according to came first.

:24:21. > :24:25.We can't do that yet, obviously. The biggest stalk here in the Midland is

:24:26. > :24:29.Birmingham. Just there. We will focus in a minute on London. There

:24:30. > :24:34.is an awful lot of votes, 33 different boroughs all reporting

:24:35. > :24:39.singly. Scotland. A lot of votes in Glasgow and Edinburgh. Not so many

:24:40. > :24:44.elsewhere. Scotland thought to be going much more for Remain than any

:24:45. > :24:47.other part of the whole of the UK and, therefore, Scotland may well be

:24:48. > :24:52.a crucial part in all of this. If I take you down towards London, you

:24:53. > :24:56.will see this forest of stalks which represents the density of population

:24:57. > :25:00.in the south-east of England. Let's zoom in on London here. We can see

:25:01. > :25:06.those 33 boroughs, including the City of London, it's tiny, 7,000

:25:07. > :25:09.electorate there. The height of the stalk represents the number of

:25:10. > :25:13.people who can vote. It's possible, with Remain sentiment high in

:25:14. > :25:17.London, all that a of these turn yellow by the end of the night. If

:25:18. > :25:23.they don't. If some of them go blue, blue for Leave, you might expect

:25:24. > :25:28.them, based on the analysis so far on the counting areas to be on the

:25:29. > :25:32.east side of the London, Barking, Dagenham, Havering, Bexley, so on.

:25:33. > :25:40.Our map, we clear it down. Once we start getting results we will show

:25:41. > :25:44.you the margin of victory for Leave or Remain in each particular area.

:25:45. > :25:51.More there about the meal cans of it all. -- mechanics. North to

:25:52. > :25:54.Scotland. A country still recovering from its independence referendum two

:25:55. > :25:59.years ago. It had its second referendum in two years. A Leave

:26:00. > :26:04.vote by the UK many people have said could have Scotland wanting to

:26:05. > :26:12.change its mind on independence and leave the UK to stick with the EU.

:26:13. > :26:16.In Falkirk this evening is Scotland editor, Sarah Smith. Good evening.

:26:17. > :26:22.Good evening, David. What's the story that you can see there?

:26:23. > :26:25.Everybody said it was going to be very much remain, does that pro-

:26:26. > :26:29.Seem to be the feeling? That's what we're largely expecting. We will get

:26:30. > :26:33.the first result in here. This is the central count where every result

:26:34. > :26:37.for each of the 32 local authority areas across Scotland will be

:26:38. > :26:44.announced. The first one about 1.00am from Auckney. First mainland

:26:45. > :26:49.result, 1.30am from Sterling. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen we

:26:50. > :26:53.won't get until 2.00am to 3.00am. If any of them vote to Leave David

:26:54. > :27:00.Cameron should be very worried. We are expecting a Remain result in

:27:01. > :27:03.most of Scotland, everywhere apart from the borders, Dumfries or

:27:04. > :27:06.Galloway. Edinburgh could have the highest proportion of Remain voters

:27:07. > :27:14.in any district across the whole of the UK. It's not how Scotland vote

:27:15. > :27:19.that matters. It's what the UK voters decide. That could have

:27:20. > :27:31.profound implications here in Scotland. Perhaps we should go to

:27:32. > :27:35.Wales. James Williams is in Deeside, this evening. What is the position

:27:36. > :27:39.there? David, we expect the turnout to be high here. I spoke to sources

:27:40. > :27:43.from all parties and both campaigns right across the country. We are

:27:44. > :27:48.expecting turnout to be between 70% and 75%. But all the sources I spoke

:27:49. > :27:53.to aren't willing to guess which way the result is going to go. What has

:27:54. > :27:58.been fascinating about this Welsh referendum campaign is that the long

:27:59. > :28:01.held assumption that Wales is a massively pro-EU country has been

:28:02. > :28:06.challenged robustly time and time again. Despite the vast majority of

:28:07. > :28:09.Welsh politicians wanting us to remain, despite the fact that Wales,

:28:10. > :28:14.unlike the UK, receives more cash from the EU than we pay in. We are a

:28:15. > :28:18.net beneficiary. Despite the fact that migration, as a proportion, is

:28:19. > :28:22.lower here than in any other UK country it seems that the result

:28:23. > :28:27.here is precariously balanced on a knife edge. That could be very

:28:28. > :28:32.significant. As one Leave Brexit campaigner was telling me, a few

:28:33. > :28:36.days ago, look, if there is a narrow Brexit result across the UK, then

:28:37. > :28:41.it's important that it isn't just England that pulls the UK out of the

:28:42. > :28:45.EU. Given we expect Scotland and Northern Ireland to vote to Remain,

:28:46. > :28:51.what happens in Wales, in that context, could be very significant

:28:52. > :28:55.indeed. Of course, over the last few years the emergence of Ukip has been

:28:56. > :28:58.a big political story #. They broke new electoral ground in May winning

:28:59. > :29:02.seats in the Welsh Assembly for the very first time. It's those Labour

:29:03. > :29:09.strongholds where we will be keeping an eye tonight. Places like,

:29:10. > :29:12.Flintshire in the north-east, according to our-John Curtice's

:29:13. > :29:16.analysis is the most eurosceptic place in Wales. The local Labour MP

:29:17. > :29:19.is telling me is heartened by what he has seen so far. In this context

:29:20. > :29:27.that means a narrow victory for Brexit. We will be looking at the

:29:28. > :29:32.council areas in the south Wales Valleys. According to Labour sources

:29:33. > :29:36.I have spoken to down there they are more confident they pulled some of

:29:37. > :29:40.their supporters back to the Remain campaign. It could be a case of

:29:41. > :29:46.damage limitation in some of those areas. As for the Remain camp, they

:29:47. > :29:49.are hoping to record big victories in the Welsh speaking heartlands.

:29:50. > :29:55.They are hoping for a big result in the capital city, Cardiff. We are

:29:56. > :30:02.expecting the results to start trickling in from 1.30am in the

:30:03. > :30:05.morning. We expect to give you the all-Wales picture around

:30:06. > :30:08.4.00am-5.00am. We will keep you updated in the meantime. Thank you.

:30:09. > :30:12.We go to Northern Ireland, Belfast. They have a different way of

:30:13. > :30:14.counting here, which Chris Buckler, who is there, good evening, Chris,

:30:15. > :30:23.he will explain it to us. A Northern Ireland result will be

:30:24. > :30:28.announced here. It is the same accounting as in the UK, a simple

:30:29. > :30:33.case of Leave Laura Main. The polling has indicated there is a big

:30:34. > :30:37.difference between how nationalists and unionists will vote. It has

:30:38. > :30:46.seemed very clear that nationalists were very likely to vote Remain.

:30:47. > :30:52.Unionists, it will split 50-50. The key thing for unionists was to get

:30:53. > :30:59.the vote out from some of those in the Leave side. The DUP is the party

:31:00. > :31:06.that has been campaigning for the Leave side, argue against the other

:31:07. > :31:10.big storm and parties. Speaking to both sides, they believe they have a

:31:11. > :31:15.big turnout, probably double figures on what the Assembly election was

:31:16. > :31:19.just six weeks ago. They say in the polling stations they have seen

:31:20. > :31:22.people voting today who did not vote in the Assembly election or the

:31:23. > :31:27.general election. There are different people there. From the

:31:28. > :31:30.Unionist side, talking to Leave campaigners, they say they have seen

:31:31. > :31:34.people from working class Unionist areas who have been very motivated.

:31:35. > :31:39.Remain campaigners say there have been more younger people out. When

:31:40. > :31:43.you take a look at the figures as far as nationalists being much more

:31:44. > :31:47.likely to vote and unionists being about 50-50, I think it is clear we

:31:48. > :31:55.will get a Remain vote in Northern Ireland. We expect that to be

:31:56. > :31:58.announced sometime after four. We will get results constituency by

:31:59. > :32:01.constituency so we can get it sooner. We have talked about

:32:02. > :32:10.Newcastle being first with a result, it seems to be a possibility

:32:11. > :32:14.Gibraltar will be first. James Neish is in Gibraltar. Tell us what is

:32:15. > :32:20.going on. Hello, from the southernmost tip of Europe, where

:32:21. > :32:25.the count has finished. 20,000 passionate voters exercising their

:32:26. > :32:31.right to vote in this EU referendum with a massive turnout of 84% on the

:32:32. > :32:38.rock of Gibraltar. The early indication is that the result will

:32:39. > :32:45.overwhelmingly be in favour of a Remain vote. I have been speaking to

:32:46. > :32:50.members of the Stronger In Campaign, they are hoping for 90% for Remain.

:32:51. > :32:55.The result is imminent. We expected to be declared in the next ten or 15

:32:56. > :32:58.minutes. The count has finished and the results have been sent to the

:32:59. > :33:02.south-west region. They will come back to the counting officer and he

:33:03. > :33:11.will declare. An interesting aspect of this campaign in Gibraltar is

:33:12. > :33:15.that Stronger In have run an intense campaign. Leave have been tactically

:33:16. > :33:19.invisible. That is why everybody that is here behind me, all of the

:33:20. > :33:26.supporters and campaigners, they are really hoping this is going to be in

:33:27. > :33:31.the European Union. 20,000 votes, so not a big number to give us the

:33:32. > :33:35.wider picture for the UK. There will be many people not sleeping tonight,

:33:36. > :33:43.hoping that this is now going to be replicated, at least as far as an i

:33:44. > :33:49.vote is expected when the declaration comes in the morning.

:33:50. > :33:55.For people slightly puzzled about this, explain how Gibraltar came to

:33:56. > :33:58.be in the EU and voting on this? I was speaking to Gibraltar's Chief

:33:59. > :34:06.Minister earlier today. He was telling me that this is British

:34:07. > :34:11.Gibraltarians being part of the British family. They stand united as

:34:12. > :34:16.one. The links between the UK and Gibraltar go back more than 300

:34:17. > :34:22.years. It was the Prime Minister, David Cameron, who gave Gibraltar

:34:23. > :34:25.the guarantee because of how Gibraltar would be affected by

:34:26. > :34:28.Brexit. It was given by the Prime Minister when he called the

:34:29. > :34:32.referendum, that the people of Gibraltar will have a right to

:34:33. > :34:35.exercise their say. That is why everybody here is hoping that the UK

:34:36. > :34:41.and Gibraltar will remain in the European Union. They say that Brexit

:34:42. > :34:48.would severely damage the high quality of life that Gibraltarians

:34:49. > :34:52.enjoy today. We look forward to... I think they will be the first

:34:53. > :34:59.results, we look forward to that. This is Kirklees. Counting stopped,

:35:00. > :35:08.it has just resumed. They have a minute's silence for the MP, Jo Cox,

:35:09. > :35:15.killed last week. The same in Leeds, counting stopped and it has now

:35:16. > :35:22.resumed. I think we can go to the news. I don't know if it will have

:35:23. > :35:29.changed. There is the front of Broadcasting House. The result, it

:35:30. > :35:33.will show you not much at the moment, because we have had no

:35:34. > :35:39.results. There we go, count underway. Sometime later, we will

:35:40. > :35:44.have that. Let's get a round-up of the news.

:35:45. > :35:47.Counting has begun of millions of votes cast across the UK

:35:48. > :35:51.A record 46 million people were entitled to vote

:35:52. > :35:54.on whether to Remain In or to Leave the European Union.

:35:55. > :36:00.The first results are likely to be announced in the early hours

:36:01. > :36:10.This report contains some flashing images.

:36:11. > :36:19.Big Ben has struck, ten o'clock. It was the moment that polling

:36:20. > :36:23.stations closed, the UK had given its verdict. Now the waiting, a

:36:24. > :36:27.night of counting ahead. Sunderland began the traditional race to be the

:36:28. > :36:33.first to complete the count. As ballot boxes were opened in Swindon,

:36:34. > :36:37.politicians said it looked like turnout was high. People that often

:36:38. > :36:42.don't vote are suddenly voting. That makes it a little bit problematic.

:36:43. > :36:45.I'm simply saying it has been hard-fought, in many senses it has

:36:46. > :36:49.been great fun and difficult, but now we have to wait and see the

:36:50. > :36:54.results. With rumours doing the rounds about who is ahead, it is a

:36:55. > :36:58.nervous wait for campaigners. In the United States, a lot of people are

:36:59. > :37:04.telling me they were going to Vote Leave or they had. I don't believe

:37:05. > :37:08.that the book is always get it right. It has emerged prominent

:37:09. > :37:12.Leave campaigners Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are among a group of

:37:13. > :37:16.MPs that have signed a letter calling on David Cameron to carry on

:37:17. > :37:20.whatever the result. It has been a ferocious and fractious campaign and

:37:21. > :37:23.there are wounds that need to be healed.

:37:24. > :37:26.As the world waits for the UK's decision, the pound has risen

:37:27. > :37:28.to its highest level this year against the dollar -

:37:29. > :37:31.and is on track for one of its strongest weekly performances

:37:32. > :37:35.When the New York Stock Exchange closed a short while ago,

:37:36. > :37:38.the pound was trading at just under one dollar and 49 cents.

:37:39. > :37:45.The FTSE 100 Share Index also closed UP over 1 percentage point today.

:37:46. > :37:47.As we've been hearing, storms and heavy rain have caused

:37:48. > :37:50.serious flooding in parts of London and in south-east England.

:37:51. > :37:52.Several commuter and Underground lines in the capital suffered

:37:53. > :37:56.There were more problems this evening as commuters tried to get

:37:57. > :38:12.Police in Germany have shot and killed a masked gunmen at a terror

:38:13. > :38:16.alert at a cinema complex. It happened near Frankfurt. The man

:38:17. > :38:20.entered the complex and took some people hostage, before being shot.

:38:21. > :38:26.Police say nobody else was injured. Jenny Hill is in Berlin. Security

:38:27. > :38:32.services and police sources have told local media that it looks as if

:38:33. > :38:37.this was not a terror, IS inspired attack, rather it was perhaps the

:38:38. > :38:41.work of a confused individual who appears to have been acting alone.

:38:42. > :38:45.There were some witness reports that suggested that the man himself

:38:46. > :38:51.appeared very confused during the incident. Police have yet to

:38:52. > :38:57.disclose whether the weapon that he was carrying was real or fake. Just

:38:58. > :39:02.before 3pm they were called to the scene, as you saw, and a very

:39:03. > :39:08.dramatic scene it was as well. Really, the incident serves to

:39:09. > :39:10.highlight, yet again, how Germany and many other European countries

:39:11. > :39:14.are on a real state of high alert. A man has been jailed for life

:39:15. > :39:17.for plotting a beheading on the streets of London,

:39:18. > :39:19.inspired by so-called Islamic State, which could have

:39:20. > :39:21.targeted a poppy seller. 23-year-old Nadir Syed

:39:22. > :39:23.was arrested in November 2014, One of the world's longest running

:39:24. > :39:29.civil wars, in Colombia, has been brought to an end

:39:30. > :39:31.after more than 50 The so-called FARC rebels have

:39:32. > :39:37.signed a deal to lay down their arms following three

:39:38. > :39:50.years of negotiations. We have the result from Gibraltar.

:39:51. > :40:27.Let's go to James Neish. 20100 and 73. The number of votes

:40:28. > :40:42.cast in favour of remaining in the European Union was 19300 and 22.

:40:43. > :41:01.You could barely hear that, but you can see it on screen, the result.

:41:02. > :41:07.Just 823 wanting to leave the EU. 19322 wanted to remain. I'm not

:41:08. > :41:15.quite sure why we cannot hear that clearly. That is the first

:41:16. > :41:23.declaration, the first result of the 382 we are going to get by 6am. That

:41:24. > :41:27.is the first result. It is absolutely no surprise, it was well

:41:28. > :41:32.known that Gibraltar was going to go entirely... I don't know who the 823

:41:33. > :41:35.are, or what their motive is, Douglas Carswell, probably friends

:41:36. > :41:41.of yours? Did you think that Gibraltar should vote Out? They will

:41:42. > :41:45.have their own distinct respective and we need to respect that. I hope

:41:46. > :41:52.North Clacton and does that result. We will see. A couple of tasters

:41:53. > :41:55.from around the country, two different sources suggesting that

:41:56. > :42:01.Sunderland, one of the other early results, we expected to be for

:42:02. > :42:08.Leave, it might be very, very clearly for Leave. Sampling suggests

:42:09. > :42:12.as high as 62% for Leave, that is, of course, way off being the

:42:13. > :42:18.official result, but it would be very important, because it would be

:42:19. > :42:22.an indication of how strong the Leave vote might be in other parts

:42:23. > :42:27.of the country. Leave were expected to be ahead, but if it is as much as

:42:28. > :42:30.that, it would be quite something. Nigel Farage, arriving at the

:42:31. > :42:37.headquarters of his part of the Leave campaign. Apparently, he now

:42:38. > :42:40.says his views about what had happened was based on what he had

:42:41. > :42:47.heard from his friends in the financial markets. That was when he

:42:48. > :42:54.said he thought that, by a whisker, the Remain campaign had won.

:42:55. > :43:00.Nigel Farage, of course, the man that actually got the whole

:43:01. > :43:05.referendum thing off the ground with Ukip, and has had a campaign, he has

:43:06. > :43:10.been quite cross quite a lot of the time with the Leave campaign for

:43:11. > :43:15.excluding him and refusing to turn up at places, and actually running

:43:16. > :43:19.his own campaign, being criticised rather robustly for some of the

:43:20. > :43:27.things, particularly that famous poster showing refugees from Syria,

:43:28. > :43:31.which Douglas Carswell and others complained about. Apparently he did

:43:32. > :43:39.speak. I don't know why the pictures are so rough, you would think they

:43:40. > :43:45.were done on an iPhone. Ladies and gentlemen, good evening! I want to

:43:46. > :43:50.say a massive, massive thanks to every single voter today who have

:43:51. > :43:56.the guts to defy their party political leaders, to defy the

:43:57. > :44:00.establishment, to defy the elites and big boys. I can't imagine any

:44:01. > :44:04.other campaign were ordinary folk have been subjected to so many

:44:05. > :44:12.threats. I have to say, it has been a long campaign. In my case, 25

:44:13. > :44:16.years. Whatever happens tonight, whoever wins this battle, one thing

:44:17. > :44:23.I am completely certain of is we are winning this war. Euro scepticism

:44:24. > :44:26.was considered to be fringe, fruitcake, to quote the Prime

:44:27. > :44:31.Minister, pretty odd. Tonight, it looks like maybe just under half,

:44:32. > :44:35.maybe over half the country, is going to vote for us to leave the

:44:36. > :44:39.European Union. I promise you this. If the result is that we vote to

:44:40. > :44:43.Leave, we must make sure the government carries out the will of

:44:44. > :44:48.the people. If the vote is that we haven't quite made it, then we have

:44:49. > :44:53.a lot to look forward to, as continued EU members. Tomorrow, the

:44:54. > :44:57.foreign affairs Minister will launch their big new global initiative,

:44:58. > :45:02.including defence. Next week, talks begin for Turkey to join the

:45:03. > :45:07.European Union. In July or August, we look forward to the third Greek

:45:08. > :45:11.bailout. What has dominated this campaign has been an issue that

:45:12. > :45:18.Westminster finds very difficult to talk about. An issue for which I

:45:19. > :45:23.have been demonised for much of the last ten years. An issue, and I will

:45:24. > :45:27.never remember going to Bolton, a lady grabbing my hands, tears in her

:45:28. > :45:31.eyes, saying, why doesn't the Prime Minister come and see what he has

:45:32. > :45:34.done to our lives? How he has changed our community? What he has

:45:35. > :45:40.done to the prospects of our kids getting jobs, school places or

:45:41. > :45:47.housing bust are not the issue, if we vote to Remain, is not going to

:45:48. > :45:54.go away. The Eurosceptic genie is out of the bottle and it will not be

:45:55. > :45:57.put back. Perhaps even more remarkably, the biggest change is

:45:58. > :45:59.not what has happened in the United Kingdom, it is what has happened

:46:00. > :46:04.across the rest of the European Union. We see in Denmark, the

:46:05. > :46:09.Netherlands, even in Italy, up to and around 50% of those populations

:46:10. > :46:13.want to leave the European Union. I hope and pray that my sense of this

:46:14. > :46:20.tonight is wrong on my sense of this, and I am not conceding, but my

:46:21. > :46:24.sense of this is that the government's registration scheme,

:46:25. > :46:28.getting 2 million voters on, a 48-hour extension, may tip the

:46:29. > :46:33.balance. I hope I am wrong. I hope I am made a fool of, believing that it

:46:34. > :46:37.is the case. Either way, whether I am right or wrong, if we do stay

:46:38. > :46:42.part of this union, it is doomed, it is finished anyway. If we fail

:46:43. > :46:46.tonight, it will not be as that knocks the first brick out of the

:46:47. > :46:50.wall, but somebody else. We have fought an amazing campaign. Even a

:46:51. > :46:54.year ago we were told the Remain campaign would be 20, 25, maybe even

:46:55. > :46:57.30 points behind the establishment position. We are not. Running them

:46:58. > :47:07.close. Nigel Farage there. He said if it

:47:08. > :47:11.was a 52-48 gap it would be unfished business if the Remain camp wins

:47:12. > :47:16.two-thirds to one third that would end it. He said if Remain wins he

:47:17. > :47:21.was going to go out and get hammered. Heys's obviously, not

:47:22. > :47:26.going to be able, he thinks, get hammered tonight because he doesn't

:47:27. > :47:29.think they have won. We wait to see. He was calling foul saying that the

:47:30. > :47:34.Government's extension of the time for registering may have swung

:47:35. > :47:41.things by getting two million more people on to the ballot. Let's go to

:47:42. > :47:46.Newcastle and Babita and see how close we are. Are we about to get a

:47:47. > :47:52.result? . We are about to hear a result declared here in Newcastle in

:47:53. > :47:59.the next few minutes. We understand from our sources is that it will be

:48:00. > :48:03.a remarginal result for Remain camp. A marginal result for Remain much we

:48:04. > :48:08.are waiting for the official declaration on the stage with the

:48:09. > :48:13.Chief Counting Officer who will take centre stage, Pat Ritchie thechl

:48:14. > :48:15.have gathered all the results and they've punched those results

:48:16. > :48:20.through to the regional counting officer, who is based in Sunderland

:48:21. > :48:24.much they are now authorising that and will make that public

:48:25. > :48:28.declaration of a marginal Remain result here in Newcastle. We are

:48:29. > :48:34.waiting to have the official figures. Figures.I can tell you also

:48:35. > :48:37.that turnout was 67.6% in Newcastle. What with we are hearing on the

:48:38. > :48:44.ground here is a marginal result for the Remain camp. Thank you very

:48:45. > :48:47.much. Join Curtice, if it's marginal for Newcastle, we don't know of

:48:48. > :48:54.course, it's not good for the Remain camp that is it? Not good news for

:48:55. > :48:58.the Remain camp or in Newcastle it's not been quite so good. We will find

:48:59. > :49:02.out which is true. Given the evidence we had before us, given the

:49:03. > :49:09.character of Newcastle it's the kind of place we would expect the Remain

:49:10. > :49:15.side to get 60% of the vote if the country was dividing 50 Halifax 50

:49:16. > :49:18.overall. If the vote for Remain is below 60% maybe Newcastle is

:49:19. > :49:24.exceptional. We will wait and see. That is not a result that, shall we

:49:25. > :49:30.say is consistent with the expectations generated by polling

:49:31. > :49:34.exercises that were revealed shortly after 10.00pm -- 50-50. It could be

:49:35. > :49:40.an outsider. You wouldn't take it too seriously? Sure. We shouldn't go

:49:41. > :49:43.too strong on one result. 12 months ago, Sunderland was good for the

:49:44. > :49:46.Labour Party. We said then, hang on, this is not necessarily the way the

:49:47. > :49:51.whole country is going to go. Equally I would say to you, we have

:49:52. > :49:56.to get a number of results in. Before we build up a consistent part

:49:57. > :50:01.earn before we can begin to sensibly speculate what the result will be.

:50:02. > :50:07.All we can say at the moment is, we heard the polls, we maybe we need to

:50:08. > :50:11.suspend our judge. When Nigel Farage said that the Government had fouled

:50:12. > :50:14.by extending the voting period, two million more people had come on to

:50:15. > :50:18.the Regster, do you support him in that? Do you think it's a rigged

:50:19. > :50:21.election this, which is what he was saying? It's important to show

:50:22. > :50:30.respect for democracy. We have been through a very pro longed debate. I

:50:31. > :50:34.think we can complain about tax funded pop beganed can and Treasury

:50:35. > :50:37.fiction. When you get people to engage in a referendum, that is a

:50:38. > :50:41.good thing. We have waited 40 years for this moment. Getting more people

:50:42. > :50:45.to engage in the process is a good thing. There are lots of things we

:50:46. > :50:51.can complain about, but I don't think that should be one of them. I

:50:52. > :50:54.just think, I agree with Douglas. Ridiculous thing of Nigel Farage to

:50:55. > :50:58.say much we have to respect the British people. He needs to respect

:50:59. > :51:01.the British people in having made that decision, which ever way it is.

:51:02. > :51:06.I will respect the decision which ever way it is as well. What were

:51:07. > :51:11.you expecting in Newcastle? I don't have those sort of details to hand.

:51:12. > :51:15.All right. I'm looking forwarded to seeing their interpretation. Laura.

:51:16. > :51:21.Orbits coming in, suggested to me it might be 61% as high as that for Out

:51:22. > :51:26.in Crawley inch London, Wandsworth, a borough expected to be Remain, it

:51:27. > :51:32.might be over 70% for Remain. So early in the night, it may well be

:51:33. > :51:36.we are looking at a very, very divided type of vote and in

:51:37. > :51:40.different communities. That might be the pattern of the evening. You

:51:41. > :51:42.wanted to add something? Merely, talking about the posters I thought

:51:43. > :51:48.you were going to ask me about those. No, I wasn't. Should we?

:51:49. > :51:53.Would you associate yourself with the posters Nigel Farage put out

:51:54. > :51:57.during the campaign. Thank you for the opportunity. I think it was a

:51:58. > :52:02.fundamental wrong thing to do. Let me say way. Morally it was the wrong

:52:03. > :52:10.thing to do. Using a picture of people who fled from a war in Syria

:52:11. > :52:14.that had nothing to do with the campaign. Angry nativism doesn't win

:52:15. > :52:17.elections in this country much I know that because in the Clacton

:52:18. > :52:22.constituencies at the last general election I made sure the posters

:52:23. > :52:26.were taken down. It's the one seat we won in that general election.

:52:27. > :52:30.What will happen to Ukip? You are rubbishing your leader, yet again,

:52:31. > :52:34.who will lead this party? We need - only you as the only MP? We need

:52:35. > :52:40.change the the way to appeal to decent minded people who want change

:52:41. > :52:47.is not by whipping up some sense of the other. Would you like to lead

:52:48. > :52:50.Ukip? Absolutely not. Why? I couldn't be a constituency MP, a dad

:52:51. > :52:55.and leader of a party much I just couldn't do it. It would be bad for

:52:56. > :52:58.me and it would be disastrous for Ukip. The Prime Minister does it

:52:59. > :53:02.well, he leads the Conservative Party and he's a dad - I certainly

:53:03. > :53:06.wouldn't want to lead the Conservative Party. That really

:53:07. > :53:11.would be difficult. That's out of the question, Douglas. We are joined

:53:12. > :53:15.by Paddy Ashdown. Lord Ashdown, could I perhaps warn you that we may

:53:16. > :53:19.have to go to Newcastle while we're talking for a result. If I interrupt

:53:20. > :53:24.you and we go off to Newcastle I hope you will, for once, forgive me.

:53:25. > :53:29.I will always forgive you, David. LAUGHTER.

:53:30. > :53:37.Come to this campaign itself. Do you think it's been damaging or can

:53:38. > :53:44.good? I don't think the political class covered itself in too more

:53:45. > :53:50.glory. It's a heavy word, there isn't another word for it, lying on

:53:51. > :53:54.the other. Douglas Carswell and I profoundly disagree about about

:53:55. > :53:58.this. Is an honourable man. He made two important statement. First of

:53:59. > :54:01.all, Nigel Farage, true to form, is determined not to accept the

:54:02. > :54:05.sovereign voice of the British people who come back again and

:54:06. > :54:10.secondly on that poster. I don't know the result, even if I do,

:54:11. > :54:17.having said I'd eat my hat on your programme last time, I'm not going

:54:18. > :54:21.to do it again with the blessed John Curtice behind you, who I owe an

:54:22. > :54:25.apology, twice I've done it, I was wrong on both occasions. There is a

:54:26. > :54:28.question you touched on with Douglas I would like to raise on you. I

:54:29. > :54:35.think the thing we ares ming here is the postal vote. I don't know what

:54:36. > :54:39.the total postal vote across Britain was 25%-30%. I don't have a figure.

:54:40. > :54:44.John will know. How do they take that into account in the polls. My

:54:45. > :54:48.guess is the postal vote across the country will be heavily Brexit it

:54:49. > :54:51.was cast right at the height of the Brexit surge at the time of

:54:52. > :54:55.immigration. He's right. A four-point lead for the Remain,

:54:56. > :54:59.which is what you have, margin of error stuff, is not enough to

:55:00. > :55:05.counter that. I want to ask the blessed John Curtice how do we take

:55:06. > :55:10.into account the postal vote? Saint John is here let's ask The people

:55:11. > :55:14.who him. Cast a postal vote can be interviewed by pollsters just as

:55:15. > :55:18.well as anybody else. The one thing the pollsters aren't allowed to do

:55:19. > :55:21.is to tell you how the postal voters in their samples have voted because

:55:22. > :55:26.that is would be against the law. They can be included in the mix. So

:55:27. > :55:33.long as they are none separately identifiable they can be included in

:55:34. > :55:39.the polls. What pollsters couldn't get out were oversea vote hesser.

:55:40. > :55:42.Maybe there were 250,000 of those. It's not an enormous number. That is

:55:43. > :55:47.one group that the pollsters could not get hold of. I don't want to get

:55:48. > :55:52.into this too much. You started it! I know. I'm really genuinely

:55:53. > :55:57.interested because my sense is that the postal vote may well tip this in

:55:58. > :56:02.an opposite direction to the latest polls. Here is my question for John.

:56:03. > :56:06.I'm a postal voter. I voted Out, I've changed my mind much you ask me

:56:07. > :56:11.now how I'm going to vote. I may say I'm voting in In, that Out is cast.

:56:12. > :56:15.You understand what I'm saying. Once you got into the period where it's

:56:16. > :56:20.possible for somebody to have cast a postal vote, people are asked in the

:56:21. > :56:23.interview by most pollsters - are you registered to have a postal vote

:56:24. > :56:28.and have you already vote and which way have you voted? Therefore the

:56:29. > :56:32.pollsters ask postal voters how they have vote ass opposed as to can

:56:33. > :56:36.asking how they will vote. I got you. Within limitations of the polls

:56:37. > :56:40.they should get that bit of the exercise right. Fine. In which case

:56:41. > :56:45.we will wait and see. The bottom truth is that we acknowledge,

:56:46. > :56:49.anybody who tells you how they know how this will go, don't. This is it

:56:50. > :56:52.still, even if the polls are right within the margin of error or

:56:53. > :56:56.nothing, we will have to be terribly patient. Thank you very much, Lord

:56:57. > :57:01.Ashdown. Maybe you will be patient and come back a bit later on to us

:57:02. > :57:06.from Westminster. Delighted to. Good to see you, thank you very much. Jo

:57:07. > :57:09.Coburn is in Manchester. You have somebody with you, I don't know who

:57:10. > :57:14.it is. You can explain? I'm at the Town Hall. It's Steve Baker, Tory MP

:57:15. > :57:18.who has been campaigning for Leave. In fact the Leave and the Remain

:57:19. > :57:22.campaigns are building up in their supporters here. Obviously, waiting

:57:23. > :57:24.for any more results coming through. We have been talking about the

:57:25. > :57:31.future of the Prime Minister, David Cameron. Steve, Baker, Tory MP for

:57:32. > :57:34.Wickham, you removed your name from a letter that stated David Cameron

:57:35. > :57:40.should stay on whatever the result as Prime Minister, why have you done

:57:41. > :57:44.this? I signed the letter in a spirit of goodwill on the Monday.

:57:45. > :57:48.During the week Project Fear escalated as a matter of protest I

:57:49. > :57:51.took my name off and didn't put it back on. I'm happy to say tonight I

:57:52. > :57:55.would be glad if the Prime Minister continued on tomorrow whatever the

:57:56. > :57:58.result is. I think he does have a mandate and and a duty to stabilise

:57:59. > :58:03.the markets and the country and keep the Conservative Party together. Why

:58:04. > :58:06.didn't you put your name back on? Sometimes we get carried with names

:58:07. > :58:09.on and off letters. I'm happy to tell people tonight I will be

:58:10. > :58:12.supporting the Prime Minister in the morning. How unhappy were you with

:58:13. > :58:16.what you called the punishment Budget by George Osborne? I'm happy

:58:17. > :58:21.to admit I was the one who organised the 65 MPs to say that they - to

:58:22. > :58:27.issue a statement to say they would vote against it. I was extremely

:58:28. > :58:31.unhappy. I found it ludicrous. Remain MPs thought it was a silly

:58:32. > :58:34.campaigning tactic. It was really frightening people much I didn't

:58:35. > :58:39.think it was a legitimate thing to do. As a campaigning strategy we

:58:40. > :58:44.responded in kind saying we voted against it. If it comes forward we

:58:45. > :58:49.will do. You stated your support for David Cameron. Would you state your

:58:50. > :58:53.support for George Osborne? If he brings forward that Budget we will

:58:54. > :58:56.vote it down. It's a matter for the Prime Minister when all things are

:58:57. > :58:59.considered. Any any of your colleagues who have not signed that

:59:00. > :59:04.letter or removed them in the way that you did are going to reinstate

:59:05. > :59:06.them? I don't think there is any danger of colleagues combining

:59:07. > :59:09.against the Prime Minister. When you look at the number of colleagues

:59:10. > :59:12.willing to sign that letter, as indeed I was, you can see that the

:59:13. > :59:15.movement in the party is to keep the Prime Minister in place and to

:59:16. > :59:18.ensure he's able to go forwards and stabilise the party and the country.

:59:19. > :59:23.Ha is the mood of the Conservative Party. There is no appetite for

:59:24. > :59:26.letters going in to have a vote of confidence. We know that he does

:59:27. > :59:31.have the confidence of the party. What about a hunch tonight on the

:59:32. > :59:33.result? We had a few results in. Obviously, that doesn't indicate

:59:34. > :59:38.necessarily what the outcome is going to be. What is your feeling If

:59:39. > :59:43.Gibraltar is representative, I'm in a lot of trouble. My feedback from

:59:44. > :59:47.Leave MPs across the country - it was a mood of elation. A huge

:59:48. > :59:50.turnout and huge support for leaving. Constituencies up-and-down

:59:51. > :59:54.the country. I'm looking forward to seeing the results when they come

:59:55. > :59:59.in. Nigel Farage seemed to indicate that Remain had the edge. They

:00:00. > :00:03.polled 10,000 people. The turnout in Wickham is three quarters, 50,000

:00:04. > :00:07.people. They have polled about a fifth of the electors of Wickham who

:00:08. > :00:10.voted today. That poll could easily be wrong. At the moment we have poor

:00:11. > :00:15.quality data. It's the best we've got. You are confident? I am. Steve

:00:16. > :00:16.Baker, thank you very much. That's it from Manchester for the moment,

:00:17. > :00:24.David. Let's have a look at the front of

:00:25. > :00:28.Broadcasting House. It's the only result we have had so far, and no

:00:29. > :00:34.surprise at all. It's sounding as though this may be a very close run

:00:35. > :00:38.result tonight on this referendum. It's just something like that.

:00:39. > :00:45.Because we are getting conflicting reports all the time. We had Nigel

:00:46. > :00:49.Farage saying he thought that Remain would win by a whisker, and then we

:00:50. > :00:56.have this report that Newcastle is well below expectations the Remain.

:00:57. > :00:59.We are waiting for the figures. This is the Newcastle count. It looks as

:01:00. > :01:04.though they have pretty well wrapped it up, but these things have to be

:01:05. > :01:13.well checked. The tellers, are they all from the two camps, Remain and

:01:14. > :01:18.Leave? I don't mean the counters, but the tellers. They will be there,

:01:19. > :01:23.and there will be people sampling. You tend to see people drifting

:01:24. > :01:27.around the room, looking nervously over the shoulders of the tellers,

:01:28. > :01:31.and watching as the size of the piles stacked up on the tables.

:01:32. > :01:36.There are always moments of huge anticipation. Sources in the outcome

:01:37. > :01:42.are saying to me that all of their sampling is looking better than they

:01:43. > :01:46.had expected it to. -- sources in the Out campaign. We are getting

:01:47. > :01:50.conflicting suggestions but in the last few minutes that has been what

:01:51. > :01:54.has been suggested to me. Their sampling is suggesting they are

:01:55. > :01:59.doing better than they thought. All of the people in recent days who

:02:00. > :02:07.asked us, when can I get an idea of what has happened? The answer is,

:02:08. > :02:09.not at midnight. I'm joined by an MP for the Scottish Nationalists. Nice

:02:10. > :02:16.of you to join us. With these whispers, a complex picture is

:02:17. > :02:20.starting to emerge. Just one result in, Gibraltar. Would you be

:02:21. > :02:25.surprised if Scotland wasn't quite as unified on this vote has many

:02:26. > :02:30.were predicting? It is hard to say so early in the evening, even if we

:02:31. > :02:34.are trying to make conjecture about what might happen across the rest of

:02:35. > :02:38.the UK. It's hard to say. I am pleased there has been a high

:02:39. > :02:45.turnout in Scotland. It's been predicted between 70 and 80%, not

:02:46. > :02:48.quite the 84.6 turnout in the independence referendum. We are very

:02:49. > :02:52.proud of the positive campaign we have fought, and I think that will

:02:53. > :03:01.reflect in a high turnout, and I am hopeful for a vote for Remain, but

:03:02. > :03:07.it's early. It is. If Scotland looks like Remain... We have a Newcastle

:03:08. > :03:15.result. Under the European Union Referendum Act 2015, and having been

:03:16. > :03:18.authorised to do so by the regional counting officer, I hereby give

:03:19. > :03:29.notice that I have certified the following. The total number of

:03:30. > :03:40.ballot papers counted was 120 9072. The total number of votes coast in

:03:41. > :03:55.favour of remaining was 65,404. The total number of votes cast in favour

:03:56. > :04:01.of Leave was 63,598. The total number of ballot papers rejected was

:04:02. > :04:09.as follows. No official mark, zero. Both answers voted for, 20. Writing

:04:10. > :04:15.or mark by which the voter could be identified, five. Unmarked or void

:04:16. > :04:21.for uncertainty, 44. The total number of ballot papers rejected was

:04:22. > :04:30.69. So there is the first result from England, and from within Great

:04:31. > :04:35.Britain that we have had. It shows the Leave campaign just a little bit

:04:36. > :04:40.behind Remain, not nearly as much behind that all of the experts had

:04:41. > :04:53.been saying we should expect from Newcastle upon Tyne. That is 49.3%

:04:54. > :04:57.for Leave, 15.7% for Remain. That could be very significant, because

:04:58. > :05:00.it is against the predictions that all the experts had made about what

:05:01. > :05:10.Newcastle upon Tyne would do. John, you were talking about

:05:11. > :05:14.students and people with degrees and that was why Newcastle were likely

:05:15. > :05:18.to be firmly in the Remain camp. Not so. That seems to be the case. The

:05:19. > :05:23.experts may have egg on their face litter tonight, or it may be that

:05:24. > :05:28.this is a first sign that the Remain side are not go to do as well as the

:05:29. > :05:32.early polls suggested. A couple of other things that might give the

:05:33. > :05:37.Remain side reason for concern - the first is that it looks as though the

:05:38. > :05:42.turnout is going to be over the 70% mark across the UK, but may be lower

:05:43. > :05:45.in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK. There has not been much of a

:05:46. > :05:49.campaign there, partly because virtually all of the politicians

:05:50. > :05:53.were in favour. That may work against the Remain side, given how

:05:54. > :05:57.pro Remain Scotland is expected to be. The second thing is that we have

:05:58. > :06:01.a lot of places now where they have declared their turnout, and it looks

:06:02. > :06:06.as though in places where there is a large number of pensioners, who we

:06:07. > :06:09.know are more likely to vote for Leave, that these places have seen a

:06:10. > :06:16.higher turnout than places where the age profile is younger. These are

:06:17. > :06:21.just straws in the wind, but they are firm straws in the wind. Downing

:06:22. > :06:25.Street was feeling relief at ten o'clock this evening when they heard

:06:26. > :06:28.the YouGov poll, but maybe the champagne has gone back in the

:06:29. > :06:32.fridge. We should say of course, that for all we have shown you

:06:33. > :06:38.cancel or Sunderland or wherever, in the end, every single vote counts.

:06:39. > :06:42.That is why Scotland is important because if Remain people have not

:06:43. > :06:47.turned up in Scotland, those votes are lost. Yes, the pattern of

:06:48. > :07:00.turnout in this referendum is as crucial as the number of votes cast.

:07:01. > :07:14.Let's see the Orkney Islands result. It is 37% for Leave. It was expected

:07:15. > :07:19.to be strong for Remain. We have not got Sunderland yet. Let's go to our

:07:20. > :07:31.reporter in Sunderland. Do you have the result? No, David, we don't have

:07:32. > :07:38.the result in Sunderland yet. They are keeping a close eye on

:07:39. > :07:42.Newcastle, the 1807 vote splits between Remain and Leave. We have

:07:43. > :07:45.spoken to remain campaigners here and they were quite pessimistic. We

:07:46. > :07:51.spoke to three Labour campaigners who were expecting a 60-40 split

:07:52. > :07:55.towards Leave. We are expecting the result in the next ten to 15

:07:56. > :08:04.minutes. What do they make of what happened in Newcastle? Very

:08:05. > :08:09.surprised at how close it was. Lots of raised eyebrows here from the

:08:10. > :08:16.counting officers. They are not expecting it to be as close here,

:08:17. > :08:21.but they are keeping a close eye on all the results. We are expecting a

:08:22. > :08:26.result here in the next ten to 15 minutes. Let's go to James Landale

:08:27. > :08:33.at the Remain headquarters. What is the reaction to that first result

:08:34. > :08:39.from Newcastle? Before that moment, there was a pretty optimistic mood

:08:40. > :08:43.here, but when they heard that result from Newcastle, there was a

:08:44. > :08:48.distinct sacking of teeth. A bit of the wind had been taken out of their

:08:49. > :08:51.sails. The mood is still hopeful. They have been saying they hope the

:08:52. > :08:58.economic argument has finally hit home, that the Labour vote has

:08:59. > :09:02.finally begun to harden. They also think that the Leave's immigration

:09:03. > :09:09.argument began to peter out towards the end of the campaign. But at the

:09:10. > :09:14.moment, the one thing that is worrying them is those postal votes.

:09:15. > :09:22.For them, that is one of the big unknowns. The mood is cautiously

:09:23. > :09:26.optimistic. But that last result made them think twice. We were

:09:27. > :09:30.talking about the postal votes here, and Laura, your view was that people

:09:31. > :09:35.thought the postal votes were largely to Leave. Absolutely. All

:09:36. > :09:39.the expectation about the postal votes was that they were coming in

:09:40. > :09:45.heavily for Leave. Do we know about the numbers? Not an exact number,

:09:46. > :09:52.but as we have seen in the turnout, very high turnout on postal votes,

:09:53. > :09:59.much higher than people expected. Somebody said in their area, it was

:10:00. > :10:04.as high as 40%. Maybe John Curtice knows. Do you know how many postal

:10:05. > :10:09.votes we are talking about if we are talking about them tending towards

:10:10. > :10:13.Leave? I think we are talking about 20% of the electorate as being

:10:14. > :10:17.registered to vote by post. We expect them to be disproportionately

:10:18. > :10:22.older people, so I don't think we should be surprised that they are

:10:23. > :10:28.strong for Leave. How many people have cast postal votes? The level of

:10:29. > :10:31.turnout amongst postal voters is always higher than the turnout among

:10:32. > :10:36.the country as a whole. How many people cast a postal vote? We have

:10:37. > :10:46.an Electra to 45 million and it is 20% of that. What is that? I am not

:10:47. > :10:51.that quick enough edition. John Curtice could not do a song! The

:10:52. > :11:04.nation falls over. Let's join Nick Watts at the headquarters for the

:11:05. > :11:12.Leave campaign. We just heard from Nigel Farage in rather chaotic

:11:13. > :11:16.scenes here. Conceded, unconceded? We can now say he is; ceded,

:11:17. > :11:21.although that might change when he sees the result from Newcastle. He

:11:22. > :11:25.is setting up a battle on two France. If Leave have lost comedy is

:11:26. > :11:30.setting up a battle against Vote Leave, but also a battle against the

:11:31. > :11:33.Conservative leadership, saying he will still continue this battle and

:11:34. > :11:37.will not give up and would be almost looking to Scotland and hoping would

:11:38. > :11:42.be in a never-ending referendum territory. I was also talking to

:11:43. > :11:45.Kate Hoey, one of the leading figures on the Labour Leave side,

:11:46. > :11:49.and she was saying when looking at the Newcastle result that that tells

:11:50. > :11:53.us the story of this campaign, that people only woke up to it at the

:11:54. > :11:56.latter stages, which is this disconnect between the leadership of

:11:57. > :12:01.the Labour Party, who are overwhelmingly in favour of EU

:12:02. > :12:04.membership, and the grassroots members, who do not share that view

:12:05. > :12:13.of the European Union. Just to clarify in case you are confused by

:12:14. > :12:20.these headquarters, this is Aaron Banks' website, which was not -- it

:12:21. > :12:25.was the headquarters of leave.EU, not to be confused with the official

:12:26. > :12:29.campaign, Vote Leave, who are not having a party. Until ten p.m., we

:12:30. > :12:36.were focused on getting out the vote. The campaign do not have time

:12:37. > :12:46.for champagne, they have been too hard-working. Emily. David, I am

:12:47. > :12:50.going to pick up with Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, our MP from the

:12:51. > :12:54.Scottish Nationalists. The point John Curtice was making about

:12:55. > :13:02.turnout being central in Scotland and London. Orkney had 68%, lower

:13:03. > :13:06.than many would expect. Is it possible that the turnout was

:13:07. > :13:12.depressed because of this uniformity of message that was coming from all

:13:13. > :13:16.the leaders saying the same thing in Scotland? It is difficult to say.

:13:17. > :13:20.But it was positive that the leaders were united in their view that it is

:13:21. > :13:24.best for Scotland and best for the UK to remain within the EU. If you

:13:25. > :13:28.contrast that with the campaign we have seen across the UK, which

:13:29. > :13:31.unfortunately has been very much based on internal Tory party

:13:32. > :13:37.fighting, exacerbated further by a letter that Tory MPs found

:13:38. > :13:41.themselves required to sign asking Cameron to remain, we heard from

:13:42. > :13:45.Chris Grayling when he was talking about having been a signatory to

:13:46. > :13:49.this letter. But let's remember that there are government ministers that

:13:50. > :13:53.did not trust their leader's judgment on the issue of the EU

:13:54. > :14:00.referendum. So a lot of what has to be done within the Tory party

:14:01. > :14:05.whatever happens. There may yet be work for the Remain camp. We saw the

:14:06. > :14:11.result from Newcastle, a windfall Remain, but on a very slight margin.

:14:12. > :14:16.Does that put the panic into your camp? All of the results we have

:14:17. > :14:20.heard have been wins for Remain. We have such a long way to go.

:14:21. > :14:25.Everybody agrees it would be impossible to predict the results.

:14:26. > :14:29.Let's hope it benefits Scotland and the whole of the UK. Nicola Sturgeon

:14:30. > :14:33.suggested during the campaign that if there was a Leave vote, Scotland

:14:34. > :14:38.might decide it was time for a second referendum. It was a big

:14:39. > :14:47.enough event to trigger a second referendum on Scottish independence.

:14:48. > :14:52.If it is a Remain vote, with the SNP then put any thought of a referendum

:14:53. > :14:57.behind it? It will come as no surprise to you that the SNP want

:14:58. > :15:02.independence for Scotland. We would of course respect the result of the

:15:03. > :15:05.referendum we had in 2014, but it is a matter for the people of Scotland

:15:06. > :15:12.whether to have a second independence referendum. It is not

:15:13. > :15:17.for any politician to dictate to the people of Scotland when that should

:15:18. > :15:20.happen. But if it was a safe Remain vote, with that second referendum of

:15:21. > :15:24.independence for Scotland then be off the table? Independence for

:15:25. > :15:29.Scotland should never be off the table. It is the reason for being of

:15:30. > :15:32.the SNP. We would love Scotland to be an independent country within the

:15:33. > :15:41.EU, with our own voice and sit at the table, batting for Scotland at

:15:42. > :15:46.every juncture. Amber Rudd, before you leave us to make way for another

:15:47. > :15:51.guest, are you a bit uneasy about what has come through? I am going to

:15:52. > :15:56.be uneasy until we have a final result. It is going to be a long

:15:57. > :16:01.night, but we remain hopeful that we read a good case for people to stay

:16:02. > :16:07.in. But I asked whether you were feeling uneasy about the Newcastle

:16:08. > :16:11.result. It is the only result we have had, and according to John

:16:12. > :16:15.Curtice, who has been working this out, leaving aside Gibraltar, he has

:16:16. > :16:20.been working this out for months and it should have been a much bigger

:16:21. > :16:25.gap between Leave and Remain. As you say, there are 380 of these results

:16:26. > :16:31.to come in. So yes, I am uneasy, but I have been uneasy from the moment

:16:32. > :16:33.the polls closed. I don't judge anything from that particular

:16:34. > :16:38.results because there are so many more to come. You don't think your

:16:39. > :16:42.campaign has been as effective as you would have liked? It was never

:16:43. > :16:45.going to be a walkover. We always knew it would be tight. When David

:16:46. > :16:48.Cameron made his Bloomberg speech and polls were taken after that,

:16:49. > :16:52.more people were thinking they wanted to leave that state. It was

:16:53. > :16:58.always going to be tight. It is an important issue. We have had three

:16:59. > :17:12.results, Orkney as well, voting to Remain. Newcastle upon Tyne, Remain

:17:13. > :17:20.down to 50.7. And Gibraltar, 95.9%. That is how things stand. Something

:17:21. > :17:25.we are hearing from tasters of results coming in from elsewhere,

:17:26. > :17:32.Sunderland and Crawley are looking good for Leave. As we came on air,

:17:33. > :17:36.we had cautious optimism from people like Amber from Remain who thought

:17:37. > :17:42.they were safer. But suggestions are coming in that Leave are looking at

:17:43. > :17:46.big wins in some areas. I should explain the bottom half of our

:17:47. > :17:52.screen. You saw Clackmannanshire going through voting to Remain. We

:17:53. > :18:02.will have each of these counting areas showing as the results come

:18:03. > :18:09.through. In the bottom right, Remain lead by 27,000 256. At this stage,

:18:10. > :18:13.there is not -- that is not a figure you can attach much importance to.

:18:14. > :18:17.It will change as the figures come through. At some point, when we get

:18:18. > :18:21.an idea of how many people voted, we will be able to give an indication

:18:22. > :18:26.of how many votes are needed to win one way or the other. But at this

:18:27. > :18:34.stage, it is just a figure to keep an eye on. Don't ask me why we chose

:18:35. > :18:39.those colours for Leave and Remain. They are the colours of the European

:18:40. > :18:43.Union flag. They are just colours we chose for tonight. We cannot use

:18:44. > :18:55.blue for the Conservatives and yellow for the Liberals.

:18:56. > :19:03.Now, we are joined by Ruth Davidson, the hero of the debate at Wembley,

:19:04. > :19:07.it seems other with people saying you should stand for the Westminster

:19:08. > :19:11.Parliament on the strength of that and fight for the leadership of the

:19:12. > :19:15.Conservative Party in the UK as a whole, not just in Scotland. I think

:19:16. > :19:18.people are forgetting that with the devolution settlement we have in

:19:19. > :19:24.Scotland, the job I am doing in Holyrood is a pretty big job. I get

:19:25. > :19:32.to stand up to Nicola Sturgeon, a big job in itself. I am happy where

:19:33. > :19:36.I am. What do you make of the argument we were hearing just now

:19:37. > :19:42.that Scotland may have a slightly low turnout, people may not have

:19:43. > :19:44.been excited by the campaign in Scotland? Let me come back to you.

:19:45. > :19:55.We have a result from Sunderland. The accounting officer for the

:19:56. > :20:03.Sunderland boating area at the referendum held on 23rd of June 2016

:20:04. > :20:08.under the European Union Referendum Act 2015 and, having been authorised

:20:09. > :20:12.to do so by the regional accounting officer, I hereby give notice that I

:20:13. > :20:21.have certified the following. The total number of ballot papers

:20:22. > :20:29.counted was 134,400. The total number of votes cast in favour of

:20:30. > :20:39.Remain was 51,930. The total number of votes cast in favour of Leave was

:20:40. > :20:59.82,000... . CHEERING DROWNED SPEECH

:21:00. > :21:13.The total number of votes cast in favour of Leave was 82,000 394. The

:21:14. > :21:22.number of ballot papers rejected was as followed. No official mark, zero.

:21:23. > :21:28.Both answers voted for,... Right, we've now had this second result in.

:21:29. > :21:34.Let's just go to Jeremy Vine and see, and I'll come back to you,

:21:35. > :21:37.Ruth, in just a second. Let's go and see where these two results fit in

:21:38. > :21:46.with the pattern you fit there, where they go on your slide rule, as

:21:47. > :21:48.I think of it. To save these results are interesting is an

:21:49. > :21:54.understatement. Let's quickly go through what we know. If you look at

:21:55. > :22:00.the map, we've had results from the very north of the country, Orkney,

:22:01. > :22:05.to write at the foot of the map, Gibraltar, with that very strong

:22:06. > :22:12.Remain result. A 90% margin for Remain in Gibraltar, that's right

:22:13. > :22:18.down the end of our index. Remember, this index was built to show us how

:22:19. > :22:23.Eurosceptical 382 counting areas were. We've had those two results

:22:24. > :22:29.from Newcastle and Sunderland, not glossing over Orkney and Gerald, but

:22:30. > :22:33.there are very few voters there. Newcastle and Sunderland in a lot of

:22:34. > :22:38.votes. Let's try and work out where they fit into our index and what

:22:39. > :22:43.they mean. Newcastle, a strong Remain. According to our index, it's

:22:44. > :22:49.one of the 40 most likely to vote for Remain, so beside it you can

:22:50. > :22:54.seek Orkney and Gibraltar at the end, but we are focusing on

:22:55. > :22:59.Newcastle. Looking at that, you expect a sizeable margin to remain

:23:00. > :23:05.in Newcastle. Let's have a look at what happened. Look at how close

:23:06. > :23:12.that is. It's nothing like what our index suggested, barely 1% in it,

:23:13. > :23:16.and now, it could be that, as John Curtice was saying, that when we

:23:17. > :23:21.analysed Newcastle, we missed something, that actually there was a

:23:22. > :23:25.strong, latent Leave vote in Newcastle which the data didn't

:23:26. > :23:31.suggest. I'm putting it out as a dramatic outlier. It looked like a

:23:32. > :23:35.strong Remain place and it isn't. Now Sunderland, in a different

:23:36. > :23:41.position on the board. It is actually a little way into Leave.

:23:42. > :23:46.There are 382 areas, so it isn't a long way in, but you'd expect a

:23:47. > :23:52.solid margin for Leave in Sunderland. Let's look at what we

:23:53. > :24:00.actually saw. You can see 61% for Leave and 39% for Remain. So 20 or

:24:01. > :24:05.more points gap. Looking at our board, you'd think that a bit more

:24:06. > :24:11.than Leave and we might have been expecting. It's not that far off the

:24:12. > :24:15.centre, Sunderland. You might have expected it to be tighter. These

:24:16. > :24:21.results are given us something to think about. We are looking at the

:24:22. > :24:24.index, wondering about our order. We are thinking, is the Leave vote

:24:25. > :24:29.stronger than anyone was thinking? We will find out but, my goodness,

:24:30. > :24:35.Newcastle and Sunderland... Don't anyone go to bed yet! The markets

:24:36. > :24:40.have been very sensitive over the last few days. Kamal Ahmed is here.

:24:41. > :24:45.You have news that these results have already affected the markets.

:24:46. > :24:51.There are some relatively sweaty traders out there tonight. A lot of

:24:52. > :24:55.strength in sterling earlier on, after the polls suggested Remain had

:24:56. > :25:00.done very well. In the last few minutes, sterling has come down

:25:01. > :25:05.markedly of a high of $1 50, its highest in the year. It has fallen

:25:06. > :25:10.by three or 4 cents in the last few minutes. Traders are sitting there,

:25:11. > :25:14.looking at result in Newcastle and Sunderland, and thinking, and one a

:25:15. > :25:20.minute, maybe those polls are a little bit too optimistic for

:25:21. > :25:24.Remain. We are in the wrong position on sterling. Sterling would be

:25:25. > :25:28.expected to fall markedly if Britain left the EU. They may be on the

:25:29. > :25:32.wrong side of this trade at the moment. There is some significant

:25:33. > :25:37.selling. What you are going to get over the next few hours is great

:25:38. > :25:40.volatility for sterling. They are making a lot of money while they are

:25:41. > :25:48.doing this is to mock somebody will be. Just to explain the point, why,

:25:49. > :25:56.if it is a vote for Leave, will sterling fall? Investors will think

:25:57. > :26:01.it could be bad for the UK economy. The economists say, if Britain left

:26:02. > :26:05.the EU, that could become in the short term at least, bad for the UK

:26:06. > :26:10.economy, and investor sentiment might turn against Britain. Britain

:26:11. > :26:16.runs a current account deficit. As Mark Connolly, governor of the Bank

:26:17. > :26:21.of England, said, we need the kindness of strangers to support our

:26:22. > :26:24.debts. -- mark Carney. If people start thinking that they are not

:26:25. > :26:30.sure about the UK economy, it would mean that sterling started falling.

:26:31. > :26:36.But you will be keeping an eye on it? I will. We can rejoin Ruth

:26:37. > :26:41.Davidson. Thank you for your patience. The leader of the Scottish

:26:42. > :26:45.Conservatives. I was asking whether there was a worry in Scotland that

:26:46. > :26:49.the Remain camp and the people who wanted Remain might not have pulled

:26:50. > :26:55.their weight, because the campaign itself was rather lacklustre. In

:26:56. > :26:59.Scotland, we are looking at a turnout not as high as the

:27:00. > :27:04.independence referendum, which was 85%, extraordinarily high by

:27:05. > :27:11.democratic event in the UK, but it is looking as though it is running

:27:12. > :27:14.around or above 70%, higher than Scottish Parliamentary elections

:27:15. > :27:20.last month and the general election. I think it's been a pretty good

:27:21. > :27:25.turnout. Are you disconcerted by the news so far from the two English

:27:26. > :27:32.results we have had? I think it's a little bit early to tell. Five out

:27:33. > :27:35.of 382 declared, two of them in Scotland, Clackmannanshire and

:27:36. > :27:39.Orkney, one of them in the middle of the central belt, one in the

:27:40. > :27:43.northern isles. That isn't enough to tell us about Scotland and I don't

:27:44. > :27:48.think two seats from the north-east is enough to tell us about all of

:27:49. > :27:54.England. They are not seats, just numbers of votes. Sorry, local

:27:55. > :27:59.authority areas. I am in election mode! In those areas, I don't think

:28:00. > :28:04.that is enough for us to say. In terms of Scotland, you will find

:28:05. > :28:09.catchiness across the country. In Dumfries and Galloway and the

:28:10. > :28:15.south-west and the Moray Firth, you will find it closed a 50-50. You may

:28:16. > :28:21.get a surprise in the Western Isles which, in 1975, voted against. The

:28:22. > :28:26.rest of the country, places like my constituency in Edinburgh, you seen

:28:27. > :28:33.votes that look as though it will come out about 3-1, more than 70%

:28:34. > :28:37.for In. It will be a mixed picture. Just a word that the Conservative

:28:38. > :28:40.Party, do you see it as something in Scotland very separate from

:28:41. > :28:46.Westminster? If the Conservative Party in Westminster goes into

:28:47. > :28:50.turmoil, with only one MP from north of the border, if it goes into

:28:51. > :28:55.turmoil over this, would you distance the Scottish Conservative

:28:56. > :28:58.Party and say, look, we are really involved in politics in Scotland,

:28:59. > :29:02.and you can have chaos in the south if you want, but we will go our own

:29:03. > :29:09.way and work out our own policies and our own election stance. When I

:29:10. > :29:13.fought my leadership election, it was on a platform of keeping our

:29:14. > :29:16.party together. While we are devolved in Scotland and I have

:29:17. > :29:20.responsibility for lots of areas, it is to be a part of the UK

:29:21. > :29:26.Conservative Party. I don't accept the premise of your question. We as

:29:27. > :29:29.a party have much more that keeps us together than divides us. It has

:29:30. > :29:34.been a passionate debate but remember, a year ago, my colleagues

:29:35. > :29:38.in London were elected on a manifesto to govern, a manifesto to

:29:39. > :29:43.have a referendum on the European Union. We have carried that out. We

:29:44. > :29:48.will respect the result, whichever it is. And after that, as democrats,

:29:49. > :29:51.we will respect the will of the people of this country, come back

:29:52. > :29:56.together, and governed to the manifesto on which we were elected.

:29:57. > :30:01.Judging by what you said in Wembley arena, you don't have much respect

:30:02. > :30:05.for Boris Johnson. I don't think you could take that at all. There was no

:30:06. > :30:11.personal invective. It was a passionate debate on the issues.

:30:12. > :30:14.They have been good, hearty issues to talk about, the economy,

:30:15. > :30:21.immigration, security, this country's played in the world. Wedge

:30:22. > :30:28.saying, you have lied about Europe, you have lied about Turkey. The

:30:29. > :30:33.campaign. That is what I was saying. The campaign had made contestable

:30:34. > :30:38.claims. I think that, you know, when all of the dust settles, we should

:30:39. > :30:41.be able to look at a passionate campaign that was carried out in a

:30:42. > :30:45.way to bring those arguments to people in the country but then come

:30:46. > :30:52.back together as a party and Govan to the manifesto to which my

:30:53. > :30:56.colleagues were elected. -- and to govern. Are you concerned about the

:30:57. > :31:00.state of the Conservative Party is to mock some of the younger

:31:01. > :31:05.elements... Myself, I don't remember the Maastricht years for stuff I

:31:06. > :31:08.have plenty of colleagues from recent intakes that haven't seen a

:31:09. > :31:15.previous issue regarding Europe in my party. I know with broadcasters

:31:16. > :31:19.like a longer -- with a longer track record like to point to it. We want

:31:20. > :31:25.to get on with the job we were elected to do. European politics

:31:26. > :31:28.isn't what drives us. It is about social mobility, managing the

:31:29. > :31:31.economy, reforming public services, giving people opportunities and

:31:32. > :31:36.helping with education, for people to be able to advance themselves and

:31:37. > :31:42.bring the country and themselves up. This is what drives us, not carrying

:31:43. > :31:47.out a European feud. We are joined by Leanne Wood from Plaid Cymru in

:31:48. > :31:51.Wales. What is the story, as far as you can tell, about what is

:31:52. > :31:56.happening in Wales? There has been a lot of talk. First of all, it was

:31:57. > :32:02.going to be absolutely Remain, then people started saying it might be

:32:03. > :32:07.Leave, and then Ukip did well in the AM elections. What do you think is

:32:08. > :32:11.happening? I think it is going to be close. It looks as though those

:32:12. > :32:16.areas suffering from deprivation and poverty the most are the ones who

:32:17. > :32:22.are strongest in favour of the Remain position was that I think

:32:23. > :32:27.that, you know, we just had a Welsh Assembly election, and there was a

:32:28. > :32:30.strong feeling there that people wanted change, and I think that this

:32:31. > :32:37.referendum is given an opportunity for that voice to carry on being

:32:38. > :32:42.put. But it is a wake-up call, I think, for the entire political

:32:43. > :32:46.class. It's clear that things can't just carry on as they are, the

:32:47. > :32:51.status quo can't just continue. Something needs to give. What we

:32:52. > :32:55.need to do, from Plaid Cymru's perspective, is to strengthen the

:32:56. > :33:00.Welsh Assembly now and to make sure that we've got an institution that

:33:01. > :33:04.can deliver for people in a way that politics isn't delivered in at the

:33:05. > :33:10.moment. Thank you. We got more news about a pound. It has taken a

:33:11. > :33:16.hammering since that Sunderland result, which seems to suggest that

:33:17. > :33:21.Leave might be doing a lot better. It is down 6% in the last few

:33:22. > :33:26.minutes. That is a hammer ring we will not have seen on the market

:33:27. > :33:30.since 2008 and the financial crisis. That is a significant move. Earlier

:33:31. > :33:36.on this evening, I wrote that, if the markets have got this wrong with

:33:37. > :33:40.their positive sense that Remain was doing well, there would be an

:33:41. > :33:46.almighty correction in the value of sterling into the market this

:33:47. > :33:50.morning and into Friday. And, boy, are we seeing that. Everybody is

:33:51. > :33:54.going to be watching the next few results to see if that Sunderland

:33:55. > :34:00.result was an outlier, but certainly a lot traders and thought that

:34:01. > :34:05.Remain had a very good night are now selling out of sterling as quickly

:34:06. > :34:08.as they can. The grafts are remarkable, almost vertically down

:34:09. > :34:20.at the moment, sterling. -- the graphs. We are joined by the Labour

:34:21. > :34:27.MP for Wallasey and a Ukip MEP for south-east England, but we have to

:34:28. > :34:32.get the latest news first. So, we go back to Broadcasting House and the

:34:33. > :34:37.results as we have them at the moment. Unfortunately, the result

:34:38. > :34:47.you see is on the right-hand side the building and we can't exactly

:34:48. > :34:53.see it from here. It comes. -- here it comes. That is a helpful comment.

:34:54. > :35:06.But it looks beautiful, lovely lights. This is how it stands at the

:35:07. > :35:14.moment. That is 50.5 four Leave and 40.54 Remain at the moment. -- 50.5

:35:15. > :35:22.four Leave and 49.5 to Remain. Counting is under way of tens

:35:23. > :35:26.of millions of votes in the EU referendum, with a handful

:35:27. > :35:28.of results being declared. In the last few minutes,

:35:29. > :35:31.Sunderland have voted to leave Newcastle, which was one

:35:32. > :35:34.of the first to declare, backed Remain by a very

:35:35. > :35:36.narrow margin of 1%. 46 million people nationwide

:35:37. > :35:38.were eligible to vote, Here's our Political Correspondent

:35:39. > :35:42.Eleanor Garnier and her report It was the moment

:35:43. > :36:07.polling stations closed. declare, Gibraltar, with a disaster

:36:08. > :36:15.vote in favour of Remain. Not long after, Newcastle, with a narrow win

:36:16. > :36:19.for Remain. 65,000 404. A much smaller wind than expected. But in

:36:20. > :36:27.Sunderland, a huge win for Leave, with 61%. At a Leave campaign party,

:36:28. > :36:33.the Ukip leader remained defensive. Win or lose this battle tonight, we

:36:34. > :36:36.will win this war. We will get our country back. We will get our

:36:37. > :36:42.independence back, and we will get our borders back. Thank you. With

:36:43. > :36:45.only a trickle of results in, politicians are keeping their

:36:46. > :36:49.fingers crossed. We are proud in Scotland of the positive campaign we

:36:50. > :36:56.have fought, and that will reflect a high turnout and I am hopeful for a

:36:57. > :36:59.vote for Remain. Tonight it has emerged that prominent Leave

:37:00. > :37:03.campaigners Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are among a group of

:37:04. > :37:07.MPs who have signed a letter calling on David Cameron to carry on,

:37:08. > :37:11.whatever the result. It has been a ferocious and fractious campaign,

:37:12. > :37:13.and there are wounds that need to be healed.

:37:14. > :37:15.Following the first results, the pound has fallen dramatically.

:37:16. > :37:18.Initially it rose on expectations that the UK would stay in the EU

:37:19. > :37:21.When the New York Stock Exchange closed,

:37:22. > :37:28.the pound was trading at just under $1.49 but it has fallen as low

:37:29. > :37:34.The FTSE-100 share index also closed up over 1% today.

:37:35. > :37:36.A man has been jailed for life for plotting a beheading

:37:37. > :37:38.on the streets of London, inspired by so-called

:37:39. > :37:41.Islamic State, which could have targeted a poppy seller.

:37:42. > :37:45.23-year-old Nadir Syed was arrested in November 2014,

:37:46. > :37:52.Teachers in England are to stage a one-day strike on the 5th July

:37:53. > :37:58.The Government described the action by the National Union of Teachers

:37:59. > :38:04.More from our education correspondent, Gillian Hargreaves.

:38:05. > :38:07.The teaching unions say there are too many, in their words,

:38:08. > :38:12.huge cuts to school budgets and there is discontent over

:38:13. > :38:19.The acting general secretary of the National Union of Teachers

:38:20. > :38:22.said teachers can't go on like this without significant change.

:38:23. > :38:26.The Government say this is unnecessary, it's damaging,

:38:27. > :38:29.and they are perfectly happy to talk to the unions about this and try

:38:30. > :38:39.There is that strike planned for 5th July and more planned

:38:40. > :38:48.serious flooding in parts of London and in south-east England.

:38:49. > :38:51.Several commuter and Underground lines in the capital suffered

:38:52. > :38:54.There were more problems this evening as commuters tried to get

:38:55. > :38:58.One of the world's longest running civil wars, in Colombia,

:38:59. > :39:00.has been brought to an end after more than 50

:39:01. > :39:03.The so-called FARC rebels have signed a deal to lay

:39:04. > :39:12.down their arms following three years of negotiations.

:39:13. > :39:33.As I said a moment ago, I am joined by Diane James and Angela eagle and

:39:34. > :39:39.Vernon Bogner, professor of government at King's College in

:39:40. > :39:45.London. This is a dramatic story that seems to be unfolding here.

:39:46. > :39:50.Angela, what do you make of it? It is too early to tell. We have known

:39:51. > :39:53.all the way through that this was going to be a result on a knife

:39:54. > :39:57.edge. The polls have been all over the place and after last year's

:39:58. > :40:03.general election, we don't even know whether to believe the polls. My

:40:04. > :40:07.experience out campaigning, insomuch as you can get experience of 46

:40:08. > :40:18.million votes, is that it has been pretty close. And we are seeing that

:40:19. > :40:22.with the initial results. Your Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell,

:40:23. > :40:27.has said that the result from Sunderland was almost likely to be a

:40:28. > :40:35.by-election protest vote. In other words, the scale of the exit of the

:40:36. > :40:41.No vote. He said people are cheesed off and migration is a big issue. Do

:40:42. > :40:47.you agree? Yes, but we also have a protest from communities that have

:40:48. > :40:51.been under the most pressure. And the Leave campaign have scapegoated

:40:52. > :40:54.the European Union as the cause of that pressure, whereas actually, the

:40:55. > :40:58.cause of a lot of that pressure is the cuts and the Conservative

:40:59. > :41:03.policies which have put the most pressure on the most vulnerable

:41:04. > :41:07.communities. I think that if Leave wins, they will have been successful

:41:08. > :41:10.at getting people who are under enormous pressure in their own

:41:11. > :41:14.communities to blame the European Union as a scapegoat, rather than

:41:15. > :41:20.blame the national Conservative government. Diane James, you have

:41:21. > :41:27.conned them if they vote to leave? I don't think so at all. Let me take a

:41:28. > :41:33.different viewpoint. You have highlighted that this is the Nissan

:41:34. > :41:36.car plant. Nissan was one of those companies that was effectively asked

:41:37. > :41:40.by the Prime Minister to write a letter to the employees, and what

:41:41. > :41:45.you are seeing here is the reaction to that, which I understand has been

:41:46. > :41:53.widespread across the country, where people have taken offence at being

:41:54. > :41:59.directed to do something, and that message has been undermined at a

:42:00. > :42:03.later stage. There is a classic he in terms of the German CBI

:42:04. > :42:07.equivalent today saying there will not be any terrorists or negative

:42:08. > :42:14.reaction in terms of trade between the two countries. I don't agree

:42:15. > :42:21.with Angela at all on this about conning or trying to blame the EU.

:42:22. > :42:25.The Leave campaign has presented quite accurately what the issue is

:42:26. > :42:31.in terms of immigration and linking it to the freedom of movement. The

:42:32. > :42:38.fact that Turkey is going to join any minute wasn't accurate. There

:42:39. > :42:41.were Leave leaflets put out which hinted strongly that Syria and Iraq

:42:42. > :42:49.were going to join the European Union. This is a post truth kind of

:42:50. > :42:55.campaign, and it has played on people'sfears and has divided the

:42:56. > :43:00.country. Whatever the result, the Prime Minister needs to realise that

:43:01. > :43:03.he cannot keep imposing the worst burdens of cuts on the communities

:43:04. > :43:10.that are least able to cope with them. Vernon, watching the results

:43:11. > :43:17.as they have come in, do you think it will be a tight run thing

:43:18. > :43:21.tonight? Indications from the early results are that Leave is doing much

:43:22. > :43:24.better than one would have predicted. The tight result in

:43:25. > :43:28.Newcastle, where Remain could have hoped for a large victory, because

:43:29. > :43:34.we are told that university towns and graduates are strongly in favour

:43:35. > :43:37.of Remain, the large victory for Leave in Sunderland and also the

:43:38. > :43:45.predicted low turnout in Scotland are all good indications for the

:43:46. > :43:49.Leave camp. It is no more than a possibility, but we do have to face

:43:50. > :43:52.the possibility that Leave will win this referendum and Britain will

:43:53. > :43:58.leave the European Union. Whether that happens or not, it is obviously

:43:59. > :44:01.a close result. One cannot deny that it is a real kick to the British

:44:02. > :44:08.establishment, because all three party leaders have favoured a Remain

:44:09. > :44:13.vote. Businesses have favoured a Remain vote, the financial leaders

:44:14. > :44:17.have favoured a Remain vote. The people have not taken their advice,

:44:18. > :44:23.it appears. The latest results are on the screen. Sunderland,

:44:24. > :44:41.Clackmannanshire, Orkney, Newcastle upon Tyne. We go now to North

:44:42. > :44:49.Warwickshire and join our reporter. What do you have for us? In the last

:44:50. > :44:53.few moments, I have spoken with the Leave campaign here, who has been

:44:54. > :44:57.wandering around with his clipboard. The story appears to be that the

:44:58. > :45:04.Leave vote is much stronger than expected. He has just upgraded his

:45:05. > :45:11.estimate. He believes the spit is 70-30 in favour of Leave. I have

:45:12. > :45:14.been talking to the Conservative MP here, Craig Tracy, and he has been

:45:15. > :45:19.having a chat with his counterparts up the road, who have also been

:45:20. > :45:24.campaigning to Leave in Nuneaton and Bedworth. The estimates there are as

:45:25. > :45:30.high as 80-20 in favour of Leave. The count he is going swiftly. We

:45:31. > :45:34.expect the result by 1.30. I have also spoken to Mike O'Brien, the

:45:35. > :45:37.former Labour MP who held his seat number of years ago. He has been

:45:38. > :45:41.campaigning to Remain, but he shrugged his shoulders earlier when

:45:42. > :45:45.chatting with me and saying it was always going to be an uphill task

:45:46. > :45:56.trying to convert people who want to leave to the Remain. Let's join Luke

:45:57. > :46:00.Walton in Hartlepool. What is the message you are getting there? What

:46:01. > :46:05.we have been getting so far in all the places we have had is that the

:46:06. > :46:13.strength of Leave is greater than people anticipated. It looks like it

:46:14. > :46:18.is going to be a good result for Leave in Hartlepool. It was always

:46:19. > :46:23.expected that there would be a Leave lead, but now we are respecting as

:46:24. > :46:28.much as 70% of votes to go to Leave, possibly more. Great despondency

:46:29. > :46:33.among the Remain campaigners, Leave very buoyant. It was always going to

:46:34. > :46:37.be a happy hunting ground for Leave, because Ukip are strong here. They

:46:38. > :46:41.came second in the general election and have been picking up council

:46:42. > :46:46.seats. Nonetheless, Leave have been happy with the way the campaign have

:46:47. > :46:49.gone. They say immigration is coming up on the doorstep, even though

:46:50. > :46:54.Hartlepool has a small number of EU migrants. They are also picking up

:46:55. > :46:58.general anger about the state of the local economy, decline of local

:46:59. > :47:03.industry, perhaps the closure of the blast furnace in Redcar was a

:47:04. > :47:08.factor. And also more general frustration about the political

:47:09. > :47:12.class, a sense of wanting to put one over on politicians, a sense that

:47:13. > :47:19.the EU was a cash cow that they were paying for. There is a generalised

:47:20. > :47:22.feeling that I am picking up in Hartlepool and across the

:47:23. > :47:27.north-east. We are expecting the declaration in about an hour. I

:47:28. > :47:33.think 70% or thereabouts is where we are heading. Let's look at this

:47:34. > :47:41.chart, which gives a dramatic picture of sterling. I suspect it

:47:42. > :47:49.may have gone down since then. That is the fall in sterling on the basis

:47:50. > :47:52.of the few results we have had. Sunderland and Newcastle. And what

:47:53. > :47:57.we are hearing from North Warwickshire and Nuneaton will not

:47:58. > :48:01.have done much good. I have just received an expectation that in

:48:02. > :48:06.Lewisham in London, Remain might have it by as much as 83%. That

:48:07. > :48:13.contrasts with what we heard from North Warwickshire of 80-20 to

:48:14. > :48:19.Leave. It may be that we end up with a pattern, London versus the rest of

:48:20. > :48:26.the country. Maybe London becomes its own country. People have

:48:27. > :48:33.sincerely talked about London being such a powerhouse that it itself

:48:34. > :48:38.feels that it shouldn't be bound I watched the rest of the country

:48:39. > :48:44.thinks. Gaps as the professor was suggesting, whatever the final

:48:45. > :48:48.result is, the closeness of this suggests that it is a big kick in

:48:49. > :48:52.the teeth to the establishment, which is nearly all based in London.

:48:53. > :48:56.We have had a result from foil in Northern Ireland. These results will

:48:57. > :49:04.all be added together before we got a formal Northern Ireland should

:49:05. > :49:12.result. It is a strong nationalist area, where we would have expected

:49:13. > :49:18.this. Let's join Emily again. We can speak to Ed Miliband, the former

:49:19. > :49:26.Labour leader, your thoughts on the Sunderland result, was that a shock?

:49:27. > :49:31.Well, it is early, but what we are seeing in some Labour areas is two

:49:32. > :49:35.things going on. There is concern about immigration, and then there is

:49:36. > :49:39.wider concern about the direction of the country. Knocking on doors in my

:49:40. > :49:43.constituency today, I don't know what the result will be there yet

:49:44. > :49:47.but lots of people are concerned about immigration, that they are

:49:48. > :49:52.raising a whole set of issues about the NHS, about that kid the Mac life

:49:53. > :49:56.chances. And we have said throughout this campaign that it is not a

:49:57. > :50:01.referendum about David Cameron. Some people are pressing unhappiness with

:50:02. > :50:04.the government as well as issues in Europe, but it is early days. Who

:50:05. > :50:15.knows where we will end up? It suggests that the Labour Remain

:50:16. > :50:20.line hasn't worked well with Labour voters in the north-east. As you

:50:21. > :50:25.say, we've got results from some parts of the north-east and its

:50:26. > :50:30.early. Who knows whether the goals are right, but they all indicate

:50:31. > :50:34.that Labour voters will vote perhaps by a substantial margin for us to

:50:35. > :50:38.remain in the European Union, while Conservative voters will vote for us

:50:39. > :50:43.to leave. I think we have to remember the context. But, look, of

:50:44. > :50:48.course there are lessons, whatever the result, to be learned by the

:50:49. > :50:52.Labour Party, but not just on the issue of immigration, a whole wider

:50:53. > :50:55.set of things for Labour, but also for the government, about what

:50:56. > :51:00.people are saying about the state of the country, their unhappiness with

:51:01. > :51:04.some of the things happening in the country, a sense of pain and anger

:51:05. > :51:10.that is out there, some of which is being expressed in this referendum.

:51:11. > :51:15.I wonder what you make of Jeremy Corbyn's remarks last Sunday, that

:51:16. > :51:19.there should be no top cap on immigration. He appeared to play

:51:20. > :51:25.well with Labour in parts of the north-east, but to think that was a

:51:26. > :51:30.mistake? I think you can't say it is about a single remark. I think

:51:31. > :51:35.Jeremy's centre of gravity on Europe, to have scepticism about

:51:36. > :51:39.some parts of the European project and how it has been executed, but

:51:40. > :51:44.overall to be four Remain, I think that is where a lot of people are. I

:51:45. > :51:49.think there are a deep set of issues that have been building for a long

:51:50. > :51:52.time, and a lot of this is about people thinking, we are unhappy

:51:53. > :51:55.about the state of the country and the direction it is going in and,

:51:56. > :52:02.inevitably, a referendum becomes about the specific issue, but also

:52:03. > :52:09.about a much wider set of things. If Doncaster votes to leave, what will

:52:10. > :52:13.that tell you? That there is a lot of listening and work that needs to

:52:14. > :52:19.be done, that it will be an expression, as I say, of people's

:52:20. > :52:23.concerns. Lots of people feel it is an unequal, divided country and they

:52:24. > :52:29.are angry about it. I happen to agree with them, but I don't think

:52:30. > :52:33.the answer is to vote Leave. Of course for the Labour Party, but for

:52:34. > :52:38.all of politics, in particular the government, if this is a Remain

:52:39. > :52:41.vote, I really hope that David Cameron recognises the anger,

:52:42. > :52:46.division and pain there is in lots of parts of the country but what is

:52:47. > :52:50.happening, and I hope he tries to address that, because inequality and

:52:51. > :52:55.division is a big part of this result, whichever way it goes. What

:52:56. > :53:02.about the tone of the campaign? People we spoke to said they were

:53:03. > :53:05.very much going towards Remain until they heard the bullying, for

:53:06. > :53:12.example, the Chancellor and his threats of vinyl verity -- of an

:53:13. > :53:17.austerity budget. Do you wish those parts of the campaign shouldn't have

:53:18. > :53:23.been run the way they work? Inevitably, when you are arguing for

:53:24. > :53:27.the status quo, as the Remain side were, at least that part of the

:53:28. > :53:30.campaign led by the Conservatives, inevitably there and up being

:53:31. > :53:36.warnings about leaving, and I think a lot of those were right. I think,

:53:37. > :53:40.you know, a positive message, more of a positive message was always

:53:41. > :53:43.something the Labour Party was trying to get across, not just

:53:44. > :53:47.remaining in the EU but also reforming it in various ways, but I

:53:48. > :53:52.think it's too easy to criticise campaigns. There is deep and out

:53:53. > :53:58.there and some of that is being expressed in how people are voting.

:53:59. > :54:06.The Isles of Scilly, the result has been declared. Not very many votes

:54:07. > :54:16.here, but nevertheless, 621, 803, the smallest counting area. 44%

:54:17. > :54:22.Leave, 56% Remain. We are waiting for Swindon, which I think we may

:54:23. > :54:26.get. I stress that these are not constituencies, we are just

:54:27. > :54:32.gradually accumulating numbers. Diane James, if it goes the way that

:54:33. > :54:37.it may go, towards a narrow victory to Leave, what would the next step

:54:38. > :54:41.speed, in your view? I would hope that David Cameron, given that he

:54:42. > :54:46.has had this letter from a number of MPs, will continue as Prime

:54:47. > :54:50.Minister. That might surprise some people to hear me say that, but he

:54:51. > :54:54.has at least undertaken this referendum, some from the country

:54:55. > :54:58.has wanted for a long time. He will have heard, he will have received

:54:59. > :55:03.the signal from the population that we want to leave the EU, and I hope

:55:04. > :55:08.he would then form a top team, possibly split into two, but part of

:55:09. > :55:12.the team going to Brussels, starting the negotiations that are sorely

:55:13. > :55:18.needed, and the other part back in the UK handling the civil service

:55:19. > :55:23.and all those aspects. He has said that, if it is Brexit, he will

:55:24. > :55:29.trigger the two-year period, chapter 15, article 50, which only he can

:55:30. > :55:36.trigger. That gives you two years. Are you suggesting he shouldn't do

:55:37. > :55:40.that yet? He has two options, he could straightforwardly repeal the

:55:41. > :55:43.European Union at, and my understanding, from some of the

:55:44. > :55:49.Conservative MPs I have shared the stage with at events, their view is

:55:50. > :55:54.that that was the preference, but that article 50 is a very clear

:55:55. > :55:58.message to Brussels and to President Juncker that we are serious, and of

:55:59. > :56:03.course that kick-starts the negotiation process. At least with

:56:04. > :56:07.invoking article 50, we know where we stand, in terms of kick-starting

:56:08. > :56:15.the process, giving two years and a certain amount of reasonableness,

:56:16. > :56:19.maybe six months. We are waiting for Swindon to come in and I may

:56:20. > :56:25.interrupt you. It seems there are a number of options, if it were to go

:56:26. > :56:30.to Leave. The only legal and constitutional option is laid down

:56:31. > :56:33.by the EU, the article 50 procedure is that David Cameron tells the

:56:34. > :56:39.European council of the British voters' decision. They are meeting

:56:40. > :56:44.next week. Some people say that should be deployed -- delayed, but

:56:45. > :56:48.he says he will do it as quickly as possible. There is a larger

:56:49. > :56:51.question, if there is a vote to leave, and it is too early to

:56:52. > :56:54.predict that, he will have been given instructions by the British

:56:55. > :56:59.people to do something he doesn't want to do. Would he be the British

:57:00. > :57:04.-- the best person to negotiate British exit? Accounting officer in

:57:05. > :57:12.Swindon at the referendum held on 23rd of June 2016 under the European

:57:13. > :57:17.Union Referendum Act 2015, having been authorised to do so by the

:57:18. > :57:20.regional counting officer, I did notice that I have certified the

:57:21. > :57:29.following. The total number of ballot papers counted was 113,060.

:57:30. > :57:37.The number of votes cast in favour of remaining in of the EU was 51,000

:57:38. > :57:45.220. The number of votes cast in favour of leaving the EU was 61,745.

:57:46. > :57:53.The number of ballot papers rejected was as follows, both answers voted

:57:54. > :57:59.for, 33, writing or mark by which a person could be identified, five,

:58:00. > :58:08.unmarked or void for uncertainty, 57, and the total number of ballot

:58:09. > :58:17.papers rejected was 95. Thank you. Swindon, you can read that on the

:58:18. > :58:22.screen. The Leave side 55%, 45% to Remain. Jeremy, I think that is

:58:23. > :58:27.pretty much in line with what you were expecting for Swindon, what you

:58:28. > :58:33.and John Curtice were expecting from Swindon. Do you want to take us

:58:34. > :58:36.through when you have got to? Let's compare it to Sunderland. When

:58:37. > :58:42.Sunderland and Newcastle came in, the shock of this in the studio,

:58:43. > :58:47.because Leave had done so much more and so dramatically better than our

:58:48. > :58:50.index suggested or our knowledge of those counting areas suggested, so

:58:51. > :58:56.we are now seeing it stabilised a little more. We are in for a long

:58:57. > :58:59.night, no question. Let me show you Sunderland. Let's remind ourselves

:59:00. > :59:05.of where that is. The midway point on our index is where you'd expect

:59:06. > :59:11.it to be, a 50-50 result, if the result across the nation is 50-50.

:59:12. > :59:14.Here, we see Sunderland, into Leave territory but not by much. Let's

:59:15. > :59:20.remind ourselves of the Sunderland result and how dramatic it was to

:59:21. > :59:25.Leave. More than 20% gap in Sunderland. That is a better

:59:26. > :59:31.performance to Leave than we might have expected in Sunderland. But now

:59:32. > :59:36.we have Swindon. Let's have a look. If you look at the algorithms that

:59:37. > :59:40.we use, that we were talking about earlier, our analysis of the

:59:41. > :59:47.counting areas based on how many pensioners, who tend to vote Out,

:59:48. > :59:53.and graduates, who tend to vote In, ethnic minority voters, Ukip voters

:59:54. > :59:58.etc. We ended up with Swindon as more Eurosceptic Lee inclined than

:59:59. > :00:03.Sunderland. So it looked to us like Swindon would vote even more to

:00:04. > :00:11.Leave, but that result has come in like this, and the margin is much

:00:12. > :00:15.closer. That is what we would have expected, based on Swindon's

:00:16. > :00:21.position on the index, so Sunderland and Newcastle might outliers. Maybe

:00:22. > :00:25.there is something going on with the vote in the north of England. It's

:00:26. > :00:30.all getting very interesting on our board, and there is no way of even

:00:31. > :00:35.starting to call it. We have a result from Broxbourne, the first

:00:36. > :00:47.home counties of results, Hertfordshire. Ukip had some success

:00:48. > :00:54.in the local elections. That 66% to Leave and 34% to Remain. We are

:00:55. > :00:59.joined now by nick Robinson, who has suddenly turned up. What are you

:01:00. > :01:06.doing tonight? You are going from north to south through the night, is

:01:07. > :01:11.that right? We started in Edinburgh, David, at the polling station there

:01:12. > :01:15.in the middle of the evening. We've been to Newcastle, here in

:01:16. > :01:20.Sunderland, on my way to lead any second, then Peterborough, trying to

:01:21. > :01:25.see and to paint a picture of a divided nation, because what is so

:01:26. > :01:28.striking tonight is a divided nation, divided by nations

:01:29. > :01:34.themselves, Scotland against England, divided by region, class,

:01:35. > :01:37.educational background. I think these results suggest, as Jeremy was

:01:38. > :01:44.just saying, that that is what is going on. In Sunderland, and this

:01:45. > :01:49.may help explain a bit about the difference between what is happening

:01:50. > :01:53.in the north-east and the south, I was hearing from people on the Leave

:01:54. > :01:59.and Remain campaigns that there are people in this town you haven't

:02:00. > :02:03.voted in this city since 1983, haven't voted since the days of

:02:04. > :02:06.Margaret Thatcher, who came out, as they put it, people on both sides,

:02:07. > :02:12.to kick the establishment, people who left their houses for the first

:02:13. > :02:17.time to vote. They wanted to kick not just Brussels but David Cameron

:02:18. > :02:21.on the establishment, the bankers, they pretty much wanted to kick

:02:22. > :02:26.anybody they could, and they below -- they believed that voting Leave

:02:27. > :02:33.was the way to do that. What is your view of the way it has gone so far?

:02:34. > :02:37.What intrigues me is whether this becomes a pattern or whether what

:02:38. > :02:41.we're actually seeing is the mounting up of votes in working

:02:42. > :02:48.class where there is a result against the establishment, to Leave,

:02:49. > :02:52.but also a mounting up of votes to Remain in metropolitan areas with a

:02:53. > :02:57.younger demographic. It is much too early to tell whether that

:02:58. > :03:01.Sunderland result, and that in Newcastle, is giving us a national

:03:02. > :03:05.picture or merely suggesting that this great gulf between voters with

:03:06. > :03:09.even greater than we realised. I was hearing from a series of senior

:03:10. > :03:17.Labour figures that, in recent days, votes had hardened up amongst what

:03:18. > :03:20.you might patronisingly call Guardian readers, metropolitan

:03:21. > :03:26.people, public sector, hardening up for Remain. We may not see that

:03:27. > :03:32.until we see the vote in most urban areas but, when you are seeing votes

:03:33. > :03:36.in the smaller towns, often described by psephologists as the

:03:37. > :03:42.left behind, people with high working-class populations, what you

:03:43. > :03:46.are seeing there is a mounting up of votes to Leave, because they want to

:03:47. > :03:50.kick someone and the opportunity to do that was devoted against the

:03:51. > :03:57.establishment will stop where are you going to pop up next? Leeds is

:03:58. > :04:03.my next stop. Look forward to seeing you. Couple of hours from now. There

:04:04. > :04:10.is something interesting about the London turnout. There was terrible

:04:11. > :04:14.weather in London today, the roads were flooded, the trains were not

:04:15. > :04:18.working, the Underground wasn't working, there was all hell let

:04:19. > :04:23.loose, and, John, you think there has been an effect on London, which

:04:24. > :04:29.was expected to be heavily Remain, but it has had an effect on the

:04:30. > :04:33.vote. Perhaps. Seven or eight boroughs have told us their level of

:04:34. > :04:38.turnout. Given what was going on in the rest of the country, we would

:04:39. > :04:44.have expected about 2-3 point higher turnout in these boroughs than has

:04:45. > :04:47.been reported. Maybe it is the weather, maybe not, but whatever is

:04:48. > :04:53.because, given that London was expected to be relatively strongly

:04:54. > :04:57.for Remain, if this is correct, it is another bit of bad news for the

:04:58. > :05:01.Remain side, as far as turnout is concerned. The numbers may not be

:05:02. > :05:06.working quite as much in its direction this was hoped. The truth

:05:07. > :05:12.is there has not been any good news for them. That is a slight

:05:13. > :05:16.exaggeration. In Orkney and Clackmannanshire, the result was

:05:17. > :05:19.pretty much in line with what we were expecting. It wasn't far off

:05:20. > :05:25.and Broxbourne. There have been cases where the outcome was much as

:05:26. > :05:30.we expected. Newcastle and Sunderland stand out. What the

:05:31. > :05:34.Remain side might worry about is the only place which has come in better

:05:35. > :05:38.for them than was expected if the Isles of Scilly, the smallest of all

:05:39. > :05:47.the counting units we have got tonight. Not to forget Gibraltan!

:05:48. > :05:54.We are here with Tim Montgomerie and Alastair Campbell. Tim, what are

:05:55. > :05:58.your team captains saying after results in Sunderland and Swindon?

:05:59. > :06:02.Those results were looking positive for Leave, but the most interesting

:06:03. > :06:07.thing is the turnout. As John Curtice was explaining, in London,

:06:08. > :06:11.Northern Ireland and Scotland, you are seeing lower turnouts, whereas

:06:12. > :06:18.in the Leave areas, like places we have seen in the north-east, turnout

:06:19. > :06:22.is much greater. It seems that as a lot of people expected, those that

:06:23. > :06:25.want to leave the European Union have always been more enthusiastic.

:06:26. > :06:30.And despite the weather, they have turned out. If this is true, and we

:06:31. > :06:35.should still be cautious, this could be a much better night for Leave

:06:36. > :06:39.than many of us were expecting. Kate Howey has said in the last few

:06:40. > :06:46.moments that Labour could end up losing thousands of voters over

:06:47. > :06:51.issues like immigration. I wonder if the EU has become a proxy for a lot

:06:52. > :06:56.of things that are broken in people'slives. This is the danger

:06:57. > :07:00.with referendums. I don't dig this referendum has just been about

:07:01. > :07:05.Europe. I think a lot of the people who have been turning against in

:07:06. > :07:08.this debate, particularly in traditionally Labour areas, are

:07:09. > :07:12.people who feel that the financial crisis happened and the people who

:07:13. > :07:16.caused it got away with it. They feel there is too much division, too

:07:17. > :07:21.much inequality, that all they have had from this government is

:07:22. > :07:25.austerity. They are basically saying, two fingers to the lot of

:07:26. > :07:28.you. But Labour has known this for years. They saw the vote

:07:29. > :07:35.disappearing in the north-east to Ukip. I also think the Labour Party

:07:36. > :07:39.has to understand that we cannot just keep banging the same old

:07:40. > :07:47.messages that have come out through this campaign. I think the Labour

:07:48. > :07:52.Party has to be careful about this. I said two things to you earlier

:07:53. > :07:56.stop one is that it is not over. Secondly, I am worried about this

:07:57. > :08:01.just becoming about the Tory party. There is a danger here for Labour as

:08:02. > :08:05.well. We have to face up to the fact that large parts of the country are

:08:06. > :08:10.turning away from both of the main parties. This referendum has

:08:11. > :08:14.unleashed all sorts of stuff. I always thought it was a bad idea to

:08:15. > :08:23.have it. That sounds arrogant, don't let the people decide. It doesn't

:08:24. > :08:29.sound arrogant, it is arrogant. I have met so many people in the last

:08:30. > :08:36.few weeks saying, you see them in agony, having to make decisions that

:08:37. > :08:41.politicians should be elected and then lead. We are in this position

:08:42. > :08:48.because of a lack of leadership. Every single leader except one has

:08:49. > :08:52.been on the Remain site. And I think Jeremy Corbyn gave a gift to the

:08:53. > :08:56.Leave campaign on Sunday when he said the was no upper limit on

:08:57. > :09:01.immigration from the European Union. Alastair Campbell is right about the

:09:02. > :09:06.austerity factor. There is a global revolt against the existing

:09:07. > :09:09.capitalist system, but Labour have underestimated how concerned the

:09:10. > :09:15.working class vote is about the lack of control over immigration. We have

:09:16. > :09:23.looked at the graph of the pound literally falling off a cliff. Not

:09:24. > :09:30.literally! People look at that and think this is just markets making

:09:31. > :09:36.money. The bookies and the markets have been telling us what will

:09:37. > :09:39.happen. The economic argument did get through, but a lot of these

:09:40. > :09:43.people heard everybody saying we were going to lose the economic

:09:44. > :09:51.success we have got, but they are not feeling that economic success

:09:52. > :09:54.now. There was the Queen's famous question to the economists, why

:09:55. > :09:58.didn't you see the crash happened? The establishment were wrong about

:09:59. > :10:03.the Iraq war, wrong about the regulation of Wall Street. So

:10:04. > :10:07.Michael Gove was right to say the British public to not believe the

:10:08. > :10:12.experts. We have a problem at the moment. The established authorities

:10:13. > :10:17.are not trusted by at least half the country. Angela, you were listening

:10:18. > :10:22.to what was being said and we have John McDonnell talking about

:10:23. > :10:26.Sunderland, that people are cheesed off and migration is a big issue.

:10:27. > :10:31.Has Labour lost touch with its core voters? Clearly, there are people

:10:32. > :10:38.for whom life is really tough. They are your people. Yes, and life has

:10:39. > :10:45.been made tougher by the decisions that the Conservative government has

:10:46. > :10:50.made, particularly the huge cuts that have been focused unfairly on

:10:51. > :10:54.the areas that are least able to cope. Our country is divided now and

:10:55. > :11:02.we don't have a government that seems to care about the future

:11:03. > :11:07.prospects for communities like that. So why hasn't Jeremy Corbyn and Mr

:11:08. > :11:14.MacDonald been able to get the vote out for Vote Leave? Well, a lot of

:11:15. > :11:20.that vote wanted to kick the government. They like what the

:11:21. > :11:25.government were doing. They want to get rid of the Prime Minister. And I

:11:26. > :11:31.saw this as a way of doing it. We have had discussions all the way

:11:32. > :11:34.through this campaign about whether kicking the government in this way

:11:35. > :11:37.was the right thing to do, because it is more likely to cause a

:11:38. > :11:43.recession. We have seen what is happening with the pound, and they

:11:44. > :11:48.will be the first to suffer. So you failed with your argument. We have

:11:49. > :11:54.not been able to get through to all of our supporters, but you will find

:11:55. > :11:58.that there was a majority of Labour supporters that have voted to

:11:59. > :12:03.Remain. Our vote is less split on the Tory vote. And in fact, the

:12:04. > :12:13.Conservative government is split top to bottom. But it may be a critical

:12:14. > :12:20.part of the Labour vote that did not come out for Remain. We don't know

:12:21. > :12:25.what the result will be yet. We always knew this was going to be a

:12:26. > :12:36.knife edge referendum. We are at a very early stage of the result. When

:12:37. > :12:41.one of your MPs, admittedly unnamed, says that the EU issue simply shone

:12:42. > :12:45.a light on how out of touch Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell are with

:12:46. > :12:51.traditional voters out of London, do you think he or she has sent on her

:12:52. > :12:57.side or is that nonsense? I think there is a divide between those that

:12:58. > :13:01.live in cities and those that live in the industrialised areas of the

:13:02. > :13:04.north. We have a Chancellor that thinks that having a press release

:13:05. > :13:13.about the Northern powerhouse is good enough. It is not good enough.

:13:14. > :13:16.We have to make certain that our government takes account of the

:13:17. > :13:21.proper interests and looks after people up and down the country. I

:13:22. > :13:27.have a feeling you are not answering the question I asked. I have not

:13:28. > :13:30.come on this programme to have a go at my own leader. I think we have a

:13:31. > :13:37.government that is split down the middle. They have had to issue a

:13:38. > :13:43.Save Dave letter tonight and a third of the Brexiteers in the Tory party

:13:44. > :13:48.haven't signed it. No need for a safe Jeremy Corbyn at a? We need to

:13:49. > :13:53.wait to see what happens in this referendum to see if we still have a

:13:54. > :13:55.functioning government. We have to result from Kettering, voting to

:13:56. > :14:16.Leave. That was the expected result for

:14:17. > :14:23.Kettering in the East Midlands. We now have a Leave lead of 18,700 78.

:14:24. > :14:30.Let's join Clive Myrie. What have you got from Basildon? We are

:14:31. > :14:35.expecting the final result here in the next 20 minutes. I was talking

:14:36. > :14:39.to the leader of the borough council here, who is from the Conservative

:14:40. > :14:47.Party, and they were looking pretty forlorn. It looks like a resounding

:14:48. > :14:51.win for the Leave campaign. We did expect that. The polls leading up to

:14:52. > :15:00.the referendum suggested that it could be anything from 70 to 80%.

:15:01. > :15:06.The feeling seems to be around 70%. From talking to the Ukip members of

:15:07. > :15:10.the council here and some of the Vote Leave activists, they are

:15:11. > :15:14.saying that when they have been canvassing they have heard people

:15:15. > :15:20.talking about immigration. They have been about sovereignty. They have

:15:21. > :15:24.also talked about this being a protest vote, an attempt to give the

:15:25. > :15:30.political elite is a kick, the idea that halted as usual has gone sour

:15:31. > :15:33.for them. For the working class white people in this area who have

:15:34. > :15:39.seen their jobs disappear, have certain issues, Ukip and the Vote

:15:40. > :15:43.Leave campaign say they have been able to tap into that resentment and

:15:44. > :15:50.that has been borne out in the result this evening. In about 20

:15:51. > :15:55.minutes, we will get the official count, but it is looking like 70%

:15:56. > :16:04.for Leave. Let's look at the results we have had in. Jeremy. Here we are

:16:05. > :16:09.with our index. 382 counting areas. We have ordered them based on our

:16:10. > :16:15.analysis from the most inclined to Leave, to the most inclined to

:16:16. > :16:17.Remain. We have already had the surprises from Newcastle and

:16:18. > :16:24.Sunderland, which did not fit in with our index. But over time, it

:16:25. > :16:34.may even out. Let's look first at Kettering. It is quite a way towards

:16:35. > :16:39.Leave. You would expect a substantial vote for Leave in

:16:40. > :16:49.Kettering. And here is the actual result. Leave's vote was a tiny bit

:16:50. > :16:55.stronger in Kettering that we might have expected, based on its position

:16:56. > :16:58.on our index, but nothing like the surprise of the strength of the

:16:59. > :17:03.Leave vote in Newcastle and Sunderland. Still a substantial

:17:04. > :17:14.margin for Leave in Kettering. If we go to Broxbourne, you can see the

:17:15. > :17:28.flashing blue, meaning Leave have taken it, in parliamentary language.

:17:29. > :17:35.Let's see by how much. It looks very Eurosceptic. It is in the top 15

:17:36. > :17:48.most inclined to Leave. What has actually happened? We have a 32%

:17:49. > :17:52.gap. Again, that is a bit more for Leave than we were expecting based

:17:53. > :18:01.on our own analysis, but not a shock. The key thing is that unlike

:18:02. > :18:05.a Westminster election where you have all those constituencies that

:18:06. > :18:08.are roughly the same size in terms of numbers of voters, here,

:18:09. > :18:19.constituencies have vastly different sizes. This is our proportional map.

:18:20. > :18:29.I will bring up the stalks in the floor. The important thing is the

:18:30. > :18:34.height of the stalks. In Orkney, you have a short stalk because there are

:18:35. > :18:37.not many voters. These are the Newcastle and Sunderland results,

:18:38. > :18:44.and you can see how many thousands were involved. When we hear from

:18:45. > :18:47.Birmingham at three or four in the morning, 700,000 eligible voters,

:18:48. > :18:51.that will be the biggest stalk on the map. It is worth remembering

:18:52. > :18:59.that when accounting area has a lot of voters in it, it really packs a

:19:00. > :19:11.punch. We have a result in from the Shetland Islands. 5300 Leave, 6900

:19:12. > :19:15.Remain. Small numbers here. Slightly less four Remain than we had

:19:16. > :19:29.anticipated. And West Dunbartonshire. This is slightly

:19:30. > :19:32.better for Remain. I am joined now by Alex Salmond, the Scottish

:19:33. > :19:36.National Party MP for Gordon in the House of Commons, formerly the

:19:37. > :19:37.leader, David Davis, former Shadow Home Secretary, who has been

:19:38. > :19:50.fighting for Leave. Alex Salmond, what do you make of

:19:51. > :19:54.it? It's going to be nip and tuck. I'm astonished about Shetland,

:19:55. > :19:58.because that is one of only two areas in Scotland, back in 1975,

:19:59. > :20:04.which voted two to one not come out of the EU. The fact that it has

:20:05. > :20:08.voted pretty decisively to remain is a very good result, as indeed the

:20:09. > :20:12.other results from Scotland have been. Can I add a corrective. This

:20:13. > :20:18.talk about a low turnout in Scotland. Clackmannanshire... I

:20:19. > :20:29.think we set slightly lower than expected. Clackmannanshire, 67.5%.

:20:30. > :20:34.Sunderland, a very good result for Leave in England, 65%. It doesn't

:20:35. > :20:38.stand up to examination. What we are talking about is general election

:20:39. > :20:42.turnout and, in Sunderland comparing the general election turnout with

:20:43. > :20:49.this turnout, there is a spectacular increase. It isn't like with like.

:20:50. > :20:54.Is still a very strong turnout in Scotland and a strong vote for

:20:55. > :20:58.Leave, but this is going to go down to the wire. The constitutional

:20:59. > :21:02.implications are fascinating. I will come to that. We heard at the

:21:03. > :21:08.beginning of this that Nigel Farage said his friends in the City said

:21:09. > :21:13.the game was up, and now he says he has changed his mind. What is your

:21:14. > :21:18.view? Nigel does change his mind from time to time. This is less

:21:19. > :21:24.scientific than a normal general election, as I'm sure you have

:21:25. > :21:30.explained. It's a matter of counting votes. Even the comparisons are

:21:31. > :21:35.judgments. Oh, yes. They are not massively off but they are not

:21:36. > :21:39.entirely reliable either. What I can see happening, the beginnings of it,

:21:40. > :21:44.is that Scotland is pretty much voting as one would expect, Northern

:21:45. > :21:47.Ireland broadly as we would expect on the north of England, the

:21:48. > :21:52.industrial areas of England, erstwhile Labour voting

:21:53. > :21:58.working-class voters, they seem to need to be going heavily towards

:21:59. > :22:01.Leave. It isn't a big fraction of the population, but nevertheless.

:22:02. > :22:04.That is all to do with the fact they haven't had a increases for several

:22:05. > :22:09.years and they blame immigration, that sort of thing. -- pay

:22:10. > :22:16.increases. I agree with Alex that it will be nip and tuck. I think it is

:22:17. > :22:20.odds-on to leave. If it is Leave, what is your view about David

:22:21. > :22:24.Cameron and George Osborne, what should happen is to mock you didn't

:22:25. > :22:30.sign that letter, asking for him to remain. I never signed letters,

:22:31. > :22:36.positive or negative, not that sort of letter. If I sent a letter, it's

:22:37. > :22:41.from me. As I sit on your programme, question try, it seems to me that,

:22:42. > :22:47.so long as David does something sensible like trying to put somebody

:22:48. > :22:52.in charge of the negotiations, then what the country is going to need is

:22:53. > :22:55.stability at home. We are not going to be wanting to have a leadership

:22:56. > :23:00.election in the middle of all that. In the next couple of years, and he

:23:01. > :23:04.says he will stay for two or three years anyway, is pretty reasonable.

:23:05. > :23:12.And George Osborne, would the kindest thing to do beta move him

:23:13. > :23:20.on? That was said to be in George's interest. Just a helping hand. If it

:23:21. > :23:25.does go this way, I mean, you've always said that, if England or the

:23:26. > :23:30.rest of the UK voted to leave in Scotland voted to remain, it would

:23:31. > :23:34.trigger another independence referendum in Scotland would want to

:23:35. > :23:39.remain in the EU. Even if it was just that close, do you think that

:23:40. > :23:47.would happen, if England, put it like that, started pulling out of

:23:48. > :23:49.the EU? I do. There are two fascinating constitutional

:23:50. > :23:56.possibilities. One, Scotland looks like it's going to vote solidly

:23:57. > :24:00.Remain. If there was a Leave in England dragging us out, I am

:24:01. > :24:04.certain that Nicola Sturgeon would implement the SNP manifesto. There

:24:05. > :24:08.is another possibility, which is just emerging, that it's possible

:24:09. > :24:13.that Scotland, Northern Ireland might tip the balance overall,

:24:14. > :24:20.England having voted to leave another constitutional conundrum. At

:24:21. > :24:24.the start of this process, the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, offered

:24:25. > :24:28.David Cameron a suggestion that perhaps he should put a poor country

:24:29. > :24:33.lock on this result, that all formations within the United Kingdom

:24:34. > :24:37.should vote the same way. He said it was ridiculous and I suspect he is

:24:38. > :24:44.now thinking perhaps it was as ridiculous as he thought. -- a four

:24:45. > :24:58.country lock. We have got some more results, sized Tyneside. Leave. --

:24:59. > :25:02.South Tyneside. Tim Arndale joins us from Leeds. What is your feeling

:25:03. > :25:10.about what is happening in Yorkshire? We haven't had any

:25:11. > :25:13.results in the Yorkshire and Humber region so far, all we have had

:25:14. > :25:17.turnout figures, which are very high, much higher in most areas than

:25:18. > :25:21.the last general election, but already the Vote Leave campaign here

:25:22. > :25:27.leaves they are well ahead in this region. One senior source said a

:25:28. > :25:32.month ago that they believe they have won Yorkshire by a country

:25:33. > :25:38.mile. -- said a moment ago. They say they are voting -- picking up votes

:25:39. > :25:41.to leave in solid working-class areas, where Labour has been the

:25:42. > :25:46.dominant party for many years. The feeling on the ground is that the

:25:47. > :25:54.Labour Remain message just hasn't been hitting home. Thank you very

:25:55. > :26:01.much. We are just talking about betting. You are a betting man. Did

:26:02. > :26:09.you bet? The market that I trust most of all isn't the brain of

:26:10. > :26:13.first-class psychologists like John Curtice but the exchange betting

:26:14. > :26:21.market, people who have exchanged ?32 million of real money, and on

:26:22. > :26:25.that, Leave has come in from 14-1 to about 7-4 in the last two hours but

:26:26. > :26:32.it is still staying as the favourite. So David, if you believe

:26:33. > :26:36.it is going to be Leave, he can now finance his leadership campaign for

:26:37. > :26:43.the Conservative Party. Are you still putting money on? I never bet

:26:44. > :26:48.on things that I set my heart on, does it cloud your judgment. I think

:26:49. > :26:51.the horses are much more reliable. You can set your heart on a Balls,

:26:52. > :26:59.surely? Let's get back to serious business. -- on a horse. I put 200

:27:00. > :27:03.on this morning, but mainly because I was irritated by my colleagues in

:27:04. > :27:11.the Leave campaign. I am hopeless at it. What process would you imagine

:27:12. > :27:19.following in the next few days, if it happens, a Leave vote? First, the

:27:20. > :27:22.Prime Minister has to decide who will take control, what team he

:27:23. > :27:28.points. They will have to do consultation. It will be quite a lot

:27:29. > :27:32.of time before either they trigger article 50 and start the process,

:27:33. > :27:36.the process of negotiation, they will have to be a lot of

:27:37. > :27:42.notification, and that was not in the next few days. There are all

:27:43. > :27:49.sorts of things you can do, you can start -- took until the cows come

:27:50. > :27:53.home. He would be an wise to trigger it straightaway because there is a

:27:54. > :27:55.lot of preparation. The Leave campaign talking about the various

:27:56. > :28:00.things that might happen, there isn't a unanimity of views about how

:28:01. > :28:06.to play this. There are a variety addict will take some time. It isn't

:28:07. > :28:12.a leadership campaign. -- a variety of opinions and it will take some

:28:13. > :28:16.time. If the Prime Minister loses this, I don't see how he can survive

:28:17. > :28:21.as Prime Minister. I speak from personal experience. If you state

:28:22. > :28:26.your career on a referendum and the people vote against you, it is time

:28:27. > :28:34.to go. Talk about lame ducks. This would be a duck with no legs and no

:28:35. > :28:38.stability whatsoever. Alex, your referendum was existential to your

:28:39. > :28:42.party, what it is all about. This is not. It is a promised David Cameron

:28:43. > :28:51.made, to give the British people dare say... And he has conducted a

:28:52. > :28:55.campaign of intimidation and bullying and half his cabinet say

:28:56. > :29:00.they don't believe a word he says that he will continue? Fat chance.

:29:01. > :29:03.One reason people are saying that people are voting to leave is

:29:04. > :29:07.because they have had enough of politicians. We are going to a club

:29:08. > :29:15.in Worcester and going back to a different world. -- a club. This is

:29:16. > :29:21.a club that takes its politics seriously. They are having an

:29:22. > :29:25.all-night party, taking in the results with a view points. Let's

:29:26. > :29:34.have a word with a regular? How are you voting? Remain. How do you think

:29:35. > :29:42.it is going? It's too close to call. Recent result was lifted. We've got

:29:43. > :29:47.to wait for it to pan out. -- the Sunderland result was significant.

:29:48. > :29:55.How have you found the campaign? Disappointing. A positive case for

:29:56. > :30:02.Europe hasn't been made. It's been negative. I think it's been a

:30:03. > :30:06.disappointment overall. This is the part of the country that will

:30:07. > :30:12.apparently vote the most evenly, 50-50 in and out. I have to say,

:30:13. > :30:17.quite hard to find people here voting to leave. There are plenty of

:30:18. > :30:21.people here who voted In. Give us a flavour of how you are finding it.

:30:22. > :30:34.It's quite hard to tell at the moment. Still incredibly early. And

:30:35. > :30:41.are you all voting In? You are a voter to Leave? How are you feeling?

:30:42. > :30:56.It's still early days. I feel like... There are still like 330

:30:57. > :31:05.undeclared. Confidence from the Leave side, was that? Absolutely.

:31:06. > :31:09.We've got our fingers crossed. I think it's likely we will lose, what

:31:10. > :31:14.I think a close result will be good for Britain. It means we have a good

:31:15. > :31:20.chance of enacting reform. If there is a massive Remain victory, it

:31:21. > :31:30.means that we have a lots of discontent. Do you worry about that

:31:31. > :31:33.discontent in the future? No. Any discontent will manifest itself in

:31:34. > :31:39.the need for more reform in the EU. OK. Thank you. They have taken it

:31:40. > :31:44.seriously, having debates in the run-up to the referendum. I think

:31:45. > :31:50.the main question will be at what point people go home! Thank you very

:31:51. > :31:55.much. I hope they stay up until 6am, with a bit of luck. Let's have the

:31:56. > :32:03.result from Dundee, which has just come in. They vote to remain. All of

:32:04. > :32:06.these votes count. We are treating them as though they were

:32:07. > :32:11.constituencies, but they are not. What happens in Dundee and Plymouth

:32:12. > :32:23.and Colchester, it's all the same thing. They all get added together.

:32:24. > :32:29.And the Lagan Valley in Northern Ireland, a unionist area, they vote

:32:30. > :32:42.to leave. The DUP were in favour of leaving. Leave are ahead by 15800

:32:43. > :32:45.and 72. We will soon get to a point where we can save the kind of figure

:32:46. > :32:52.that either side has to get if it is to win. We will be able to have a

:32:53. > :32:55.target. It is based on the turnout, adding all of the turnouts together,

:32:56. > :33:04.and you can work out where the midpoint is. Subject to recounts. It

:33:05. > :33:11.is just over 16.4 million, I am told. So what a long way to go,

:33:12. > :33:16.because Leave are on just under half a million, and so are Remain. 16.4

:33:17. > :33:22.million, if you want to make a note, is the winning post. Let's get a

:33:23. > :33:25.full round-up of the news. Here is Rita Chakravarty.

:33:26. > :33:28.Initial results in Britain's referendum on the EU

:33:29. > :33:30.show support for leaving is stronger than expected.

:33:31. > :33:33.Counting is under way of tens of millions of votes and early

:33:34. > :33:36.reports suggest turnout has been high.

:33:37. > :33:41.Among the first counting centres to declare official results

:33:42. > :33:48.was Sunderland, which voted to leave by a significant majority.

:33:49. > :33:53.Newcastle and Gibraltar voted to remain. This report contains flash

:33:54. > :34:01.photography. It was the moment polling stations

:34:02. > :34:09.closed. The UK had given its verdict. And the first result

:34:10. > :34:16.declared, Gibraltar, with a 96% vote in favour of remaining. Not long

:34:17. > :34:22.after, Newcastle, with a narrow win the Remain. 65,404. A much smaller

:34:23. > :34:36.wind than expected but, in Sunderland, a huge win through to

:34:37. > :34:42.Leave, 61%. A sign that the results in Newcastle and Sunderland may not

:34:43. > :34:47.be indicative of a wider pattern. At a Leave campaign party, the Ukip

:34:48. > :34:53.leader remains defensive. We will win this war will stop we will get

:34:54. > :34:59.our country back. We will get our independence back and we will get

:35:00. > :35:07.our borders back. Thank you. It was a bruising campaign, and some say,

:35:08. > :35:10.whether it is Leave or Remain, politicians need to do more to

:35:11. > :35:14.listen to the country. Whatever the result, they will be lessons that

:35:15. > :35:18.have to be lured by the Labour Party, not just on the issue of

:35:19. > :35:21.immigration, a wider set of things, but also for the government about

:35:22. > :35:26.what people are saying about the state of the country. It's looking

:35:27. > :35:31.increasingly like turnout across the UK as a whole will be a little above

:35:32. > :35:37.50% and, remember, every single vote count in this referendum. -- 70%.

:35:38. > :35:39.Following the first results, the pound has fallen dramatically.

:35:40. > :35:42.Initially, it rose on expectations that the UK would stay in the EU

:35:43. > :35:45.When the New York Stock Exchange closed,

:35:46. > :35:47.the pound was trading at just under $1.49.

:35:48. > :35:53.It fell at one point to $1.43 but has since recovered slightly.

:35:54. > :35:58.One currency analyst said traders "are very jittery".

:35:59. > :36:00.A man has been jailed for life for plotting a beheading

:36:01. > :36:03.on the streets of London, inspired by so-called

:36:04. > :36:05.Islamic State, which could have targeted a poppy seller.

:36:06. > :36:09.23-year-old Nadir Syed was arrested in November 2014,

:36:10. > :36:18.One of the world's longest running civil wars, in Colombia,

:36:19. > :36:20.has been brought to an end after more

:36:21. > :36:24.The so-called FARC rebels have signed a deal to lay

:36:25. > :36:27.down their arms following three years of negotiations.

:36:28. > :36:31.More than 200,000 people were killed during the conflict.

:36:32. > :36:34.President Obama has suffered a setback in his plan to spare

:36:35. > :36:38.millions of people living illegally in the US from deportation.

:36:39. > :36:40.The Supreme Court has blocked the reforms,

:36:41. > :36:43.with the opinion of eight justices split equally.

:36:44. > :36:47.Mr Obama called the ruling heartbreaking.

:36:48. > :36:51.Today's decision is frustrating to those who seek to grow our

:36:52. > :36:56.economy and bring a rationality to our immigration system

:36:57. > :36:59.and to allow people to come out of the shadows and lift this

:37:00. > :37:10.serious flooding in parts of London and in south-east England.

:37:11. > :37:16.Several commuter and Underground lines in the capital suffered

:37:17. > :37:20.There were more problems this evening as commuters tried

:37:21. > :37:44.The this is Broadcasting House in London, showing the state of play at

:37:45. > :37:58.the moment. We have not had much in. We have only had 14 out of 382. The

:37:59. > :38:03.Remain side are in yellow. And a slight modification to the figure I

:38:04. > :38:10.gave earlier of 16.4 million needed to win. It is now estimated at 16.8

:38:11. > :38:19.million. We have to result in from the Western Isles. My grandson will

:38:20. > :38:31.be complaining about my pronunciation as he speaks Gaelic.

:38:32. > :38:39.Emily. A lot of people have been asking for international reaction to

:38:40. > :38:42.the results so far. It is a lot to put on the Polish ambassador's

:38:43. > :38:51.shoulders, but your sense of how the race is going so far? Let me just

:38:52. > :38:57.say that I am just an observer. We will respect any decision that is

:38:58. > :39:02.made by the UK. And Britain will always remain our friend and ally,

:39:03. > :39:07.independently of the result. But of course we are nervous, because if

:39:08. > :39:12.you speak about the national interests of Poland, we would like

:39:13. > :39:16.to see the UK as an active member of the European Union, shaping

:39:17. > :39:20.policies. They have been a big supporter of Poland, a non-euro

:39:21. > :39:26.country. Do you feel your position will be weaker if the UK left? There

:39:27. > :39:31.are several reasons. One is that we have more than 800,000 Poles living

:39:32. > :39:38.here. And whatever happens, we would like to ensure their rights are

:39:39. > :39:46.respected. Another reason is that the European Union needs unity and

:39:47. > :39:50.strength, and in the United Kingdom, we have a huge country that can

:39:51. > :39:55.influence our global policies in security and defence. This is about

:39:56. > :40:00.global strength as a bloc. The third reason is that we are afraid of a

:40:01. > :40:05.chain reaction in the European Union. We don't want this. We want

:40:06. > :40:13.to be a coherent global block that could face new challenges. We have

:40:14. > :40:20.had a wage refugees and war in Syria. Great Britain is one of your

:40:21. > :40:25.largest trading partners. We are past the campaign and the threats

:40:26. > :40:29.and the language. Do you actually think EU member countries would

:40:30. > :40:38.choose not to trade in the same way now with Britain if it is a Leave

:40:39. > :40:45.vote? I think there are three modes that could be adopted by Britain.

:40:46. > :40:55.But do you think Britain will be punished? Do you think its value

:40:56. > :40:59.will be understood? It is difficult to say. Article 50 of the Treaty of

:41:00. > :41:05.the European Union just says that the negotiations will take two years

:41:06. > :41:08.and then by unanimity, they can be extended. But if there is no

:41:09. > :41:13.unanimity, they will not be extended. In two years, Britain can

:41:14. > :41:20.achieve whatever it can achieve, and then we will be left with the result

:41:21. > :41:25.of the negotiations. But for us, Britain is an important trading

:41:26. > :41:28.partner. You have talked about the 800,000 Poles living in Britain.

:41:29. > :41:37.What was your understanding of their sense of how the campaign went? More

:41:38. > :41:44.than 80% of Poles here supported Remain, for obvious reasons. In the

:41:45. > :41:53.campaign, we had a mixture of different sentiments. Some hope, but

:41:54. > :42:04.but also some fear. Especially about immigration. This subject was not

:42:05. > :42:09.treated with a lot of objectivity. We have another result, David. A

:42:10. > :42:12.reminder of the latest results. We have had East Ayrshire in, voting to

:42:13. > :42:38.Remain. We will see whether it is too soon

:42:39. > :42:49.to get an overall picture. Let's go to Hartlepool and join Luke Walton.

:42:50. > :42:57.Have you got the result? Are you the counting officer? I am not! But I

:42:58. > :43:03.have some unconfirmed final results here, which are that Leave on

:43:04. > :43:12.32,000, Remain on 14,000, which means Leave have taken more than 69%

:43:13. > :43:16.of the vote. Those have not been confirmed, but I understand that

:43:17. > :43:20.that is the final picture, which is more or less where Leave thought

:43:21. > :43:25.they were heading. There was a head of expectation before today, so it

:43:26. > :43:30.is a very good result for Leave. The context is that this is a Labour

:43:31. > :43:35.stronghold, at it is also somewhere where Ukip have a good organisation.

:43:36. > :43:38.They came a strong second in the general election, so not entirely

:43:39. > :43:42.unexpected. The message I am getting from the Leave campaign is that this

:43:43. > :43:48.was a vote against the establishment and the feeling that Hartlepool is a

:43:49. > :43:52.forgotten town. There was a feeling both against Labour, but more

:43:53. > :43:56.broadly against politicians. Interestingly against Labour,

:43:57. > :44:00.because we have had Labour people here slightly dodging the question

:44:01. > :44:03.of whether Labour was failing and might have helped to lose this

:44:04. > :44:08.referendum by failing to get out some of its one third or so of

:44:09. > :44:18.Labour supporters. That seems to confirm what you are saying. I have

:44:19. > :44:23.heard from some Leave campaigners that they expected more Labour MPs