Part Two

:00:00. > :00:09.will know she is just as important. A long-standing campaigner against

:00:10. > :00:18.the EU in Northamptonshire. 62% to leave, 38% to remain. Laura. I just

:00:19. > :00:22.asked David Davis and Alex Salmond, I can't help but put this conundrum

:00:23. > :00:28.to the two of them, and I am sure they wouldn't agree on the answer...

:00:29. > :00:34.They never agree on anything! If Scottish votes keep the UK in the

:00:35. > :00:37.EU, what are the implications? David Davis, how would you and your

:00:38. > :00:46.backbench colleagues feel about that? Iron we are the UK. Virtually

:00:47. > :00:50.every pro-Leave MP is a strong unionist, so we accept the judgment

:00:51. > :00:54.of the whole kingdom. Do you think all of your colleagues would accept

:00:55. > :01:01.that? We have to. You have a referendum. You can hardly say it is

:01:02. > :01:05.a low turnout. You can hardly say it isn't a representative view of the

:01:06. > :01:09.people. If it were 30%, that might be different. You can't say that. If

:01:10. > :01:16.you believe in the kingdom, you must believe in the result. Labour

:01:17. > :01:21.sources already blaming the SNP for a lacklustre campaign. The

:01:22. > :01:25.percentages look healthy for Remain, but turnout in Scotland's lower than

:01:26. > :01:31.the rest of the UK. Our campaign in Scotland was very positive. In the

:01:32. > :01:36.industrial areas, that we represent, we are doing well. In the areas that

:01:37. > :01:41.Labour represent in England, they are getting hammered. Labour are

:01:42. > :01:45.casting about for responsibility and they should look to themselves. As

:01:46. > :01:47.they fought the campaign we did in Scotland, perhaps they would be in a

:01:48. > :01:55.happier place. Do you think a referendum is a good

:01:56. > :02:00.way of conducting political business? For big constitutional

:02:01. > :02:07.issues only. We don't own the future of the country. So to decide whether

:02:08. > :02:11.Scotland is independent, that is a decision for the whole people. To

:02:12. > :02:17.decide to be in or out of the European Union is a decision for the

:02:18. > :02:20.whole people. It is the only way to decide big constitutional issues,

:02:21. > :02:24.but if you are proposing a referendum, you should want to

:02:25. > :02:28.change something. David Cameron fought a referendum basically not

:02:29. > :02:35.wanting to change anything. That was a fundamental mistake. It is

:02:36. > :02:41.difficult to fight an inspiring campaign saying follow me, I don't

:02:42. > :02:50.want to change much. Right, let's go to Wales. We have the latest

:02:51. > :03:00.results. Blue for Leave. We are joined by James Williams. How is

:03:01. > :03:10.Wales turning out? From everything I have heard, it seems at this early

:03:11. > :03:21.stage that Wales is leaning towards Brexit. Merthyr Tydfil has already

:03:22. > :03:28.gone. Blaenau Gwent has gone. Caerphilly is going. There are some

:03:29. > :03:34.bright spots for the Remain campaign. There looking at about a

:03:35. > :03:44.60-40 split in Cardiff, capital city. But Swansea is also going for

:03:45. > :03:51.Brexit, Denbighshire, Anglesey as well is nip and tuck. At the moment,

:03:52. > :03:56.indications are that Wales is heading for Brexit, but it is early

:03:57. > :04:01.days. You talk about Cardiff, where there are large numbers of voters.

:04:02. > :04:07.If you look at it in terms of the numbers as opposed to the places,

:04:08. > :04:12.are you saying the numbers of votes cast will favour Leave in Wales?

:04:13. > :04:23.That is something we will have to keep an eye on. But a significant

:04:24. > :04:32.number of councils are going towards Brexit. How that totals up at the

:04:33. > :04:35.end is still to be seen. We have to be careful about voting areas and

:04:36. > :04:44.counting areas as opposed to the actual numbers. One senior Labour

:04:45. > :04:49.figure has contacted me to say they think it is going to be a Leave win.

:04:50. > :04:55.One figure, very early in the night, but a senior figure has said they

:04:56. > :05:01.believe Leave will win. We have been talking about London a lot. In

:05:02. > :05:07.London good for Remain, 1.9 million votes that. There are many more

:05:08. > :05:19.votes in Outer London, which Leave sources believe looks good for them.

:05:20. > :05:31.A result from Bury, voting to leave. The Leave vote is 54474.

:05:32. > :05:43.Peter Henley joins us now from Southampton. We have not heard

:05:44. > :05:51.anything from the South. Do you have news of what might happen? If Remain

:05:52. > :05:54.thought the South was coming to their rescue, I don't think that is

:05:55. > :06:00.going to happen. Everyone is talking about the Leave vote being ahead of

:06:01. > :06:05.what people expected. In Portsmouth, where it was thought to be 50-50,

:06:06. > :06:12.they are talking about more 57% Leave. And in Southampton, they are

:06:13. > :06:18.supposedly going for Leave 60-40. The counts are carrying on and we

:06:19. > :06:23.are expect in the result in an hour. In Salisbury, they are suggesting

:06:24. > :06:27.Leave has done well. It is fraying peoples nerves. In Oxford, there was

:06:28. > :06:33.an incident where one of the Labour councillors was arrested. There are

:06:34. > :06:44.a lot of votes in the south-east of England, 6.5 million voters. It

:06:45. > :06:49.seems to be going towards Leave at the moment. Alex Salmond tells me

:06:50. > :06:55.the voting has now gone in favour of a Leave victory. In the spread

:06:56. > :07:01.betting for the first time, Leave are now favourite. Not overwhelming,

:07:02. > :07:05.but now favourite. Many people watching will be very unhappy that

:07:06. > :07:15.we are talking about betting, Presbyterians. The Presbyterians are

:07:16. > :07:20.enthusiastic gamblers. Let's talk to serve Vince Cable, senior Lib Dem.

:07:21. > :07:26.Your response at this early stage of the night, particularly to what is

:07:27. > :07:31.happening in Wales? Well, I can't improve on your studio analysis. But

:07:32. > :07:38.it does look increasingly as if Leave are head. We can begin to

:07:39. > :07:43.think about the political and economic implications of that. There

:07:44. > :07:48.is a lot of polarisation. Scotland is in a very different position.

:07:49. > :07:54.There are nationalist areas in Northern Ireland. But the Labour

:07:55. > :08:02.voting areas, their support has crumbled badly. I suspect the spread

:08:03. > :08:07.betters know what they are doing. You think it is more to do with the

:08:08. > :08:12.Labour vote not coming out than the Tory campaign scaring people off? I

:08:13. > :08:20.had my reservations about some of the techniques that were being used.

:08:21. > :08:29.I am clearly in favour of remain. I think the techniques didn't work.

:08:30. > :08:33.The politics of fear were used in the general election against people

:08:34. > :08:38.like me. They were used in Scotland before that and I was an assumption

:08:39. > :08:41.that it might work here. Other factors have kicked in. People in

:08:42. > :08:46.highly deprived areas of the north-east have expressed their

:08:47. > :08:50.frustration. How do you think the Remain camp will have to deal with

:08:51. > :08:55.this if it does emerge as a voter Leave? Well, some concrete issues

:08:56. > :09:02.have emerged. Immigration is the most obvious one. The question which

:09:03. > :09:09.David Cameron wasn't able to deal with in his renegotiation, which is

:09:10. > :09:13.a brake to provide some kind of reassurance that things are

:09:14. > :09:23.controlled, that issue might have to be reopened. If Remain does squeak

:09:24. > :09:32.in, other figures may with London, there will be a lot of heart

:09:33. > :09:38.searching. I suspect that if Remain does win with a majority of 1% or

:09:39. > :09:43.2%, the authority of the government will be considerably weaker than it

:09:44. > :09:48.was before the referendum. We are in a period of relatively unstable

:09:49. > :09:53.government. Let me ask you to reflect on the nature of the

:09:54. > :09:57.referendum. In an ideal Cameron world, this was never meant to

:09:58. > :10:03.happen. The Lib Dems were expected to be in government with him and you

:10:04. > :10:07.would presumably have stopped the referendum going ahead. Was it a

:10:08. > :10:12.mistake to call it? We certainly argued that it was, for the reasons

:10:13. > :10:17.that Alex Salmond gave a few moments ago. His analysis was spot on. There

:10:18. > :10:21.are clearly circumstances in which you need a referendum, when you have

:10:22. > :10:25.major constitutional change. But this was a way of resolving an

:10:26. > :10:30.impasse within the Conservative Party. There was a chronic failure

:10:31. > :10:40.to understand what happens when you just throw the cards in the air and

:10:41. > :10:45.people'sgrievances find an outlet, whether it has anything to do with

:10:46. > :10:50.Europe or not. It was very bad judgment and will do David Cameron

:10:51. > :10:55.enormous harm. In the sense that he will have to leave straightaway if

:10:56. > :10:59.it is Leave? Well, my former Cabinet colleagues like Ken Clarke said he

:11:00. > :11:10.will not survive ten seconds if we lose this. Let's assume it is a

:11:11. > :11:16.Leave win. If his party do persuade him to stay on, his authority is

:11:17. > :11:22.completely gone. I would have thought any sense of self-respect

:11:23. > :11:27.would make him want to go. If we are talking about a Leave win, even if

:11:28. > :11:35.it is a small one, I fear his day is now gone. What do you think the real

:11:36. > :11:43.response from European leaders would be towards Britain if it is a Leave?

:11:44. > :11:47.The threats are over. Do you think they would try and woo us back in

:11:48. > :11:54.with trading deals, or do you think the door is slamming shut? Europe is

:11:55. > :11:58.governed by legal processes to a significant extent, and they will

:11:59. > :12:03.play out. Politics forms part of that. I don't think there is any

:12:04. > :12:09.sense of vindictiveness or anti-British feeling. Nonetheless,

:12:10. > :12:17.they will be anxious to avoid some kind of contagion. So any sense that

:12:18. > :12:22.the UK would be rewarded by being given full access to the single

:12:23. > :12:25.market without paying the costs in terms of accepting free movement or

:12:26. > :12:32.financial contribution, a Norwegian type outcome, I don't think that is

:12:33. > :12:38.likely to be on offer. Do you think it could trigger more referendums

:12:39. > :12:44.around Europe? Some populist politicians in Europe are making

:12:45. > :12:48.that case. Most people I have spoken to in some of the peripheral

:12:49. > :12:53.countries like Sweden, they take the view that even if they didn't have a

:12:54. > :12:57.referendum, they would stay. I don't think there will be rapid

:12:58. > :13:02.fragmentation. Nonetheless, it would be a severe blow to the European

:13:03. > :13:12.Union. Their instincts would be to stand firm to make sure Britain is

:13:13. > :13:17.not rewarded from this. That is what I have worried about all along.

:13:18. > :13:24.Assuming Leave win, we have potentially entered a prolonged

:13:25. > :13:29.period of unsettled disputes. The whole problem of translating

:13:30. > :13:33.European law back into some kind of British alternative is a difficult

:13:34. > :13:37.process. I have been listening to Alex Salmond's comments about

:13:38. > :13:41.Scotland. The issues with Scotland are not simply whether they would go

:13:42. > :13:46.for independence. The problem is that with all the devolved powers,

:13:47. > :13:50.many of which have a European dimension, if they don't want to

:13:51. > :13:55.cooperate, what happens? We have potentially entered into an enormous

:13:56. > :14:00.legal quagmire tasting for years. That is one of the warnings some of

:14:01. > :14:06.us have been trying to give which have not been heeded by the

:14:07. > :14:11.government. We are joined by Aaron Banks, who helped fund Nigel

:14:12. > :14:17.Farage's campaign for Ukip. Mr Farage was going to join us and then

:14:18. > :14:28.vanished. Do you think you have won? I think we have. We ran our own poll

:14:29. > :14:42.which came out with 52-48. We can't hear you very well. Can you hear me?

:14:43. > :14:50.I am hearing you perfectly. Where is your microphone? Anyway, you think

:14:51. > :15:00.it is in the bag? I think we have a strong result. I always thought

:15:01. > :15:08.whether we win or lose, we have made the point and I think it is good

:15:09. > :15:13.news for Europe. They will have to certainly think. What did you make

:15:14. > :15:17.of what Vince Cable said that if it is Brexit, it promises years of

:15:18. > :15:23.chaos as they try to unscramble the legal side and enter into trade

:15:24. > :15:33.negotiations, that it will not be a straightforward deal? As I

:15:34. > :15:38.understand it, we have two years to renegotiate. I think our partners

:15:39. > :15:45.will want to come to a sensible deal. It is less complicated than

:15:46. > :15:55.the politicians say. How much did you give to the campaign? Nearly ?6

:15:56. > :16:07.million. Why? It is something I believe in. I believe we should

:16:08. > :16:14.bring democracy back to Parliament. Thank you very much.

:16:15. > :16:22.I hereby give notice that I have certified the following. The total

:16:23. > :16:31.number of ballot papers was 37,975. The number of votes in favour of

:16:32. > :16:40.remaining a member of the EU was 12,569. The number of votes cast in

:16:41. > :16:46.favour of leaving the EU was 25,385. There were 21 rejected ballot

:16:47. > :16:55.papers. SHARING

:16:56. > :17:07.North Warwickshire, 56.9% to leave, 33% Remain. Leave are now on

:17:08. > :17:14.1,000,460 5000. The winning post still remains 16 million 800,000

:17:15. > :17:21.odd. I'm joined by John McDonnell, Shadow Chancellor for Labour, MP for

:17:22. > :17:25.Hayes and Harlington, and Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland

:17:26. > :17:29.Secretary, who has been voting to Leave. You said earlier on that your

:17:30. > :17:35.instinct was it was going to go to Remain this evening. Do you think

:17:36. > :17:40.your instinct had deserted you? I would be delighted to be proved

:17:41. > :17:47.wrong. Obviously, we are not able to predict the result, but my feeling

:17:48. > :17:50.was, to be confident of a Leave win, I would have expected us to be going

:17:51. > :17:55.into polling day with a strong lead in the holes, because there is

:17:56. > :18:00.always a reversion to the status quo. We tried hard to demonstrate

:18:01. > :18:04.that there is an status quo is the risks of staying in our significant,

:18:05. > :18:10.but even so you would expect the status quo option to gain support.

:18:11. > :18:14.This may not have been triggered in this referendum, this traditional

:18:15. > :18:19.reversion to be status quo. By the looks of some of the results, it may

:18:20. > :18:24.not have happened, but we obviously will not know that for EQ hours. You

:18:25. > :18:29.are Northern Ireland Secretary and you said during the thing that there

:18:30. > :18:34.was no risk to illegal immigration, trading regions and so on. If the UK

:18:35. > :18:37.leads EU and Northern Ireland being part of the United Kingdom, how can

:18:38. > :18:43.you possibly not have a border between the two to stop goods going

:18:44. > :18:51.across as people coming in a cross that border? We have had a common

:18:52. > :18:55.travel area between the UK and Ireland since the creation of the

:18:56. > :18:59.Irish state. But we joined the EU together. They have never been

:19:00. > :19:06.tariffs between us. But now there would be barriers. If you look

:19:07. > :19:11.around the EU's external borders, thousands of lorries and goods pass

:19:12. > :19:13.every day without any restrictions. Modern technology means it is

:19:14. > :19:19.possible to deal with these issues, and it would be manifestly of

:19:20. > :19:24.interest to both the UK and Ireland that we find a way to do that. After

:19:25. > :19:28.all, the Irish Ambassador to London himself has been very clear that the

:19:29. > :19:36.Common travel area isn't affected by a Brexit vote. There is the Northern

:19:37. > :19:47.Ireland figure, Remain. Northern Ireland is likely to be a Remain

:19:48. > :19:51.part of Britain. The DUP, of course, were in favour of leaving. The

:19:52. > :19:56.Nationalists in favour of remaining. John McDonnell is also there. I

:19:57. > :20:00.should cut to the chase. There has been a lot of talk about whether

:20:01. > :20:06.Labour was pulling its weight in this campaign, and that, in some

:20:07. > :20:10.senses, you may have lost a crucial part of this working-class vote, you

:20:11. > :20:16.have been disaffected and gone to Leave, and that you have failed

:20:17. > :20:20.somehow to tap into that. I have toured around the country and the

:20:21. > :20:25.result coming out now, to be frank, it exactly as I thought. I thought

:20:26. > :20:28.it would be very close. It is a disaffected vote, disaffected with

:20:29. > :20:33.Westminster politics, politics overall. Some of it is Labour

:20:34. > :20:38.supporters, too, and we have done our best to try and turn it round,

:20:39. > :20:42.but it's been tough. It gets to feel like a by-election at the moment,

:20:43. > :20:46.where people's grievances are being aired as well. People are concerned

:20:47. > :20:50.about how they are being treated with austerity and wages being

:20:51. > :20:55.frozen for the past seven years. People's grievances are coming out

:20:56. > :21:01.and we have to start listening. London is thought to be one place

:21:02. > :21:18.where the Remain cab will do well. Here is Lambeth in south London.

:21:19. > :21:26.30,340 two Leave. 111 584 to Remain. 21 - 79. Let's go to Exeter in the

:21:27. > :21:35.West Country, in Devon. That is a Remain vote again, 55% to Remain,

:21:36. > :21:39.45% to Leave. We will check on how sterling is doing. What's happened

:21:40. > :21:47.in the markets? It's still going down quite rapidly. It is down now

:21:48. > :21:51.at around $1 40. It got as high as $1 50 when there was a lot of

:21:52. > :21:54.confidence in the markets that Remain were going to win. There is

:21:55. > :22:01.another important indicator will the FTSE futures, which is a judgment on

:22:02. > :22:07.where the FTSE 100 will open when it opened in London late on this

:22:08. > :22:11.morning, and that is down 5%. Both those indicators, these percentages

:22:12. > :22:17.sound small, but those are huge moves in the markets, the type of

:22:18. > :22:22.moves, possibly for the pound, not seen before, certainly not since the

:22:23. > :22:27.2008 crisis, and also for the FTSE 100. A 5% fall in the market would

:22:28. > :22:32.be a significant event and would really create a sense, I think, at

:22:33. > :22:37.that stage, that the markets were in a major sell-off territory, and I

:22:38. > :22:42.think that the Bank of England now and others must be considering, if

:22:43. > :22:48.there is a Leave votes, and we are a long way from knowing that I'm a bad

:22:49. > :22:54.there may have to be some form of announcement made in the morning. To

:22:55. > :22:59.make one point clear, at the moment in sterling, the market is very thin

:23:00. > :23:02.on volumes. There are not actually many traders trading the ground at

:23:03. > :23:08.the moment, so the volatility is marked. People moving can make

:23:09. > :23:14.volatile spikes. So I would put that caveat in. Certainly, the volatility

:23:15. > :23:21.is huge. And the City is open all night? The trade 24 hours a day all

:23:22. > :23:27.around the world. On the Asian markets, the count is down 5%, so

:23:28. > :23:32.between five and 6%. These include a moves between Monday's trading,

:23:33. > :23:40.these are not figures seen since 2008, which does show the level of

:23:41. > :23:46.market concern, I think, more to do with uncertainty than whether

:23:47. > :23:50.Britain is in or out of the EU. It isn't political, this issue. It

:23:51. > :23:56.isn't a judgment on whether Leave or Remain should win. It is about that

:23:57. > :24:01.uncertainty, how will we trade with the European Union, which is our

:24:02. > :24:04.biggest market for exports? You're not allowed to talk about sterling,

:24:05. > :24:09.because shadow chancellors can't discuss it. What about the markets

:24:10. > :24:16.generally? Are you concerned that what you are hearing? I think some

:24:17. > :24:19.of the claims on both sides of the campaign were exaggerated about a

:24:20. > :24:26.recession, but we have always made clear there would be a shock if the

:24:27. > :24:30.Remain camp didn't win and it was Leave, and that is what we were

:24:31. > :24:37.expecting. I would expect the Bank of England to intervene in the

:24:38. > :24:40.morning. We can't comment on sterling, but what we can do is have

:24:41. > :24:45.a mature approach and say, whatever the outcome, we will negotiate the

:24:46. > :24:49.best deal we can with regards to our trading partners in Europe, and in

:24:50. > :24:54.that way we might give some assurances to the market. Glasgow

:24:55. > :25:06.has come in, the first large city in Scotland to come in and indeed, the

:25:07. > :25:14.largest in numbers. That is 67% share to Remain, 33% to Leave.

:25:15. > :25:26.Falkirk also came in, where the cab is being conducted. 43% to Leave,

:25:27. > :25:34.57% to Remain. -- where the count is being conducted. This is how

:25:35. > :25:45.Scotland overall is looking. 38% to Leave, 62% to Remain. Jeremy, on

:25:46. > :25:52.your slide, do you want to show us how things are going? We have got a

:25:53. > :25:55.kind of swingometer for you later, which we will bring out when the

:25:56. > :26:04.figures settle down. We are calling it an index for now. It shows the

:26:05. > :26:11.382 counting areas by size. That is the length of the bar. Crucially, by

:26:12. > :26:15.the order in which they are arranged in terms of their Euroscepticism.

:26:16. > :26:23.Over this side, at this end, let's see it, it says most Leave, see how

:26:24. > :26:29.many there are, and right round at the other end, most Remain. Two

:26:30. > :26:34.things have happened in the last few minutes. The first thing is, some

:26:35. > :26:38.very good news to Leave, with the result from Swansea, and here is

:26:39. > :26:44.why. If I bring Swansea out on our polling index, it is this side of

:26:45. > :26:51.the centre, so it is on the Remain side. It has come in to Leave, so it

:26:52. > :26:56.is the first counting area we have seen where you have actually got

:26:57. > :27:02.glue in a yellow area. Let's see the percentage. -- blue. The winning

:27:03. > :27:10.side needs the paint the opposing area blue or yellow. That is very

:27:11. > :27:15.good for Leave, winning in a place where Remain were expecting to win.

:27:16. > :27:21.A different result from Lambeth. If we go to the most Remain end, a lot

:27:22. > :27:25.of London and Scotland on that end, for all the reasons discussed.

:27:26. > :27:32.London and Scotland will likely be the highest votes to Remain. Lambeth

:27:33. > :27:36.is right there. A lot of photos there, but look at the proportion of

:27:37. > :27:41.yellow on back bar. That is the margin of the Remain win. That

:27:42. > :27:48.result is pretty much the first bit of really good news for the Remain

:27:49. > :27:55.camp tonight, because that is beyond what was expected, even with them on

:27:56. > :28:01.that far end of the bar. 79% Remain, 21% Leave. If Remain are going to

:28:02. > :28:07.pull this back, they will do it through building up majorities like

:28:08. > :28:11.that in dense urban centres. So Lambeth, Remain will be thinking, if

:28:12. > :28:15.that happens all over London, there are an awful lot of votes coming

:28:16. > :28:20.their way. We have just at Wandsworth, in south-west London,

:28:21. > :28:26.including Tooting, where Siddique Khan, the new mail of London, came

:28:27. > :28:38.from. Those are the raw figures. -- Sadiq Khan. 25% to Leave, 75% to

:28:39. > :28:41.Remain. I don't know whether that is good news for Remain, whether they

:28:42. > :28:48.expected to do better in both Lambeth and Wandsworth? Those are

:28:49. > :28:53.both good results. In both cases, we are looking at figures for Remain

:28:54. > :28:57.about ten points above what we were expecting, so it's beginning to look

:28:58. > :29:00.as though London will indeed, even though we were expecting Remain to

:29:01. > :29:05.do well, may well do even better there. Contrarily, some of the first

:29:06. > :29:11.results from the north-west, places like St Helens, we are seeing the

:29:12. > :29:15.Remain side well adrift. We were long talking about this referendum

:29:16. > :29:18.campaign, about the potential difference between England and

:29:19. > :29:23.Scotland. We may also be talking about a major difference between

:29:24. > :29:27.London and the rest of England. At the end of the day, if indeed the UK

:29:28. > :29:32.does vote to leave, and we are not saying that is what is going to

:29:33. > :29:37.happen yet by any means, if it does, it will be provincial England that

:29:38. > :29:41.will have determined the UK's vote. You were talking about turnout in

:29:42. > :29:48.London. Is that affected these raw figures was to mark as it had the

:29:49. > :29:54.effect you for? -- have it had the effect you thought? What does seem

:29:55. > :29:58.to be true is that the increase in turnout in London above what we got

:29:59. > :30:03.in last year's general election seems to be somewhat less than in

:30:04. > :30:08.other places in the UK. It is up by about 4% in London. It is up 6%

:30:09. > :30:11.across the country. At the beginning of the night, we were talking about

:30:12. > :30:17.very high turnout. That is an exaggeration. But it looks like we

:30:18. > :30:22.have got a 72% turnout, the first time since 1987 in a UK wide vote

:30:23. > :30:27.that we have got more than a 70% turnout. The truth is, whoever wins

:30:28. > :30:30.the referendum, and we still don't know who it will be, it will be very

:30:31. > :30:34.difficult to argue that they don't have a mandate and that the country

:30:35. > :30:41.hasn't made a clear decision. Voters have been engaged in this referendum

:30:42. > :30:45.in a way that frankly recent general elections have failed to interest

:30:46. > :30:48.them. The percentage isn't a reflection of the numbers, because

:30:49. > :30:54.they lot of people put their names on the register to vote who were not

:30:55. > :31:00.there before. Yes, so that we have got 72%, even though 1.7 million

:31:01. > :31:02.names were added since last September, is an indication of an

:31:03. > :31:08.even greater democratic success than it otherwise might will be. Barking

:31:09. > :31:15.and Dagenham, east London, they have voted Leave. 46,000, 20 7000. 62%,

:31:16. > :31:24.38%. We get the inner Metropolitan core

:31:25. > :31:28.of London to an area where historically the far right has tone

:31:29. > :31:33.well and the Remain vote is well adrift of what we expected. So as

:31:34. > :31:37.Laura suggested it may be parts of the London, maybe the inner core

:31:38. > :31:42.where there are a lot of young, mobile people, lots living in the

:31:43. > :31:45.city, etc, once we get out towards London which is more like the rest

:31:46. > :31:55.of England, maybe Remain will struggle more and more. And just to

:31:56. > :32:01.remind you, the Leave side is running at 49.3%, and Remain a 50

:32:02. > :32:05.pin 7. We keep showing these figures of percentages from counting area,

:32:06. > :32:20.remember, it doesn't actually amount to a row of bean, what matters is

:32:21. > :32:25.the raw numbers, and Leave is on, here we are at Broadcasting House,

:32:26. > :32:29.BH as it is lovingly called, saying it is too early to call. Have a look

:32:30. > :32:42.at the figures projecting there on the front. The yellow for Remain and

:32:43. > :32:48.Leave. 59.3. It has to do something for it still. It doesn't. I thought

:32:49. > :32:53.it emerged in some strange way. Any way, there we are, there is

:32:54. > :33:00.Broadcasting House on the left and the New Broadcasting House on the

:33:01. > :33:05.right 6789 all bright blue. It is just after 2.30. We ought to get

:33:06. > :33:12.some news now. Let us have the news right now. Right now.

:33:13. > :33:15.There's a mixed picture emerging from the first results in Britain's

:33:16. > :33:19.With only a small fraction of voting areas having declared,

:33:20. > :33:27.A final result will not be known for several hours.

:33:28. > :33:29.Here's our political correspondent Eleanor Garnier, and her report

:33:30. > :33:41.It was the moment polling stations closed. The UK had given its

:33:42. > :33:47.verdict. And the first result to declare Gibraltar, with a decisive

:33:48. > :33:55.96% vote in favour of Remain. Not long after, Newcastle, with a narrow

:33:56. > :34:02.win for Remain. 65,404. A much smaller win than expected.

:34:03. > :34:09.But in Sunderland, a huge win for Leave, with 61%. Away from the north

:34:10. > :34:14.of England in Basildon, another big win for Leave.

:34:15. > :34:20.With another count, with a big turn out, at 74%.

:34:21. > :34:25.At a Leave campaign party in London, earlier in the night, Ukip leader

:34:26. > :34:29.remained defensive. Win or lose this battle tonight we will win this war,

:34:30. > :34:32.we will get our country back, we will get our independence back, and

:34:33. > :34:40.we will get our borders back. Thank you.

:34:41. > :34:43.It was a bruising campaign, and some say whether it is Leave or Remain,

:34:44. > :34:47.politicians need to do more to listen to the country. Whatever the

:34:48. > :34:51.result of this, there will be lessons that have to be learned by

:34:52. > :34:54.the Labour Party, but not just on the issue of immigration, a whole

:34:55. > :34:57.wider set of things for the Labour Party, but also for the Government.

:34:58. > :35:02.You know, about what people are saying about the state of the

:35:03. > :35:10.country. It is looking increasingly like turn out will be above 70% for

:35:11. > :35:15.the first time in a UK-wide contest since 1997. As results continue to

:35:16. > :35:16.come in remember the referendum isn't decided count by count but

:35:17. > :35:23.vote by vote. Following the first results,

:35:24. > :35:25.the pound fell dramatically, although it regained some of those

:35:26. > :35:27.losses in the last hour. When the New York

:35:28. > :35:29.Stock Exchange closed, the pound was trading

:35:30. > :35:31.at just under $1.49. It fell at one point to $1.43

:35:32. > :35:34.but has since recovered slightly. One currency analyst said

:35:35. > :35:40.traders "are very jittery". The Italian coastguard says it

:35:41. > :35:42.rescued around 4,500 migrants Good weather and calm seas have led

:35:43. > :35:46.to more people risking The charity MSF has been helping

:35:47. > :35:53.the rescue operation. A woman's body was recovered

:35:54. > :35:55.from one of the vessels A man has been jailed for life

:35:56. > :36:03.for plotting a beheading on the streets of London,

:36:04. > :36:05.inspired by so-called Islamic State, which could have

:36:06. > :36:07.targeted a poppy seller. 23-year-old Nadir Syed

:36:08. > :36:09.was arrested in November 2014, One of the world's longest running

:36:10. > :36:19.civil wars, in Colombia, has been brought to an end

:36:20. > :36:21.after more The so-called FARC rebels have

:36:22. > :36:25.signed a deal to lay down their arms following three

:36:26. > :36:35.years of negotiations. Storms and heavy rain have caused

:36:36. > :36:38.serious flooding in parts of London Several commuter and Underground

:36:39. > :36:41.lines in the capital suffered There were more problems this

:36:42. > :36:44.evening as commuters The UK's population grew by half

:36:45. > :36:56.a million last year. New figures show it's now just

:36:57. > :36:58.over 65 million. The Office for National Statistics

:36:59. > :37:00.says the increase is in line with average population growth

:37:01. > :37:25.over the last ten years. Welcome back to our coverage here of

:37:26. > :37:30.a fascinating complex difficult to predict race on the referendum on

:37:31. > :37:35.Leave and Remain, the figures you saw a moment ago, 2.6 million for

:37:36. > :37:40.Leave, 2.7 million for Remain but it means nothing at this stage because

:37:41. > :37:44.we have so much more to come in, we have only had 74 out of 382 counting

:37:45. > :37:48.areas in. We have a number of things to talk about. What is happening in

:37:49. > :37:51.Wales, various other things and what is happening in the Labour Party

:37:52. > :37:57.with John McDonnell. Let us join Emily first. Thank you. I am joined

:37:58. > :38:02.by Andrew Rawnsley and Isabel Hardman. I have to pull your eyes

:38:03. > :38:08.away from what is going on on Channel 4 at the moment. I was

:38:09. > :38:11.watching the markets. Thank goodness for that! This is

:38:12. > :38:16.tantalisingly close at the moment, what do you think is going on in

:38:17. > :38:20.Downing Street? I think there is a lot of panic in Downing Street, I

:38:21. > :38:24.suspect there is a lot of panic in a lot of Labour constituencies in the

:38:25. > :38:28.north as they see their voter though thought they were in step with

:38:29. > :38:33.turning away from them and voting out. The weird thing about this, if

:38:34. > :38:37.turn out is high, if the race is close, it hasn't put people off. No,

:38:38. > :38:42.you remember a lot of people at the begin of the campaign were saying,

:38:43. > :38:46.how much do people care, most people about Europe we know a minority of

:38:47. > :38:51.people care about it passionately but do they care that much? A lot of

:38:52. > :38:54.prediction turned out to be lower than at a general election. One

:38:55. > :38:57.thing as you say, we don't know where we are going to be at six

:38:58. > :39:01.o'clock in the morning but one thing we know is turn out will be higher

:39:02. > :39:04.than at a general election. And a lot of voters have obviously

:39:05. > :39:09.thought, this is a very very important moment, in whatever the

:39:10. > :39:14.result, very important moment, in our country's history and I am going

:39:15. > :39:19.perform my civic duty. John McDonnell was talking about the

:39:20. > :39:23.sense of a by-election, as if this was about austerity, as if it wasn't

:39:24. > :39:28.about Europe, do we not trust the voter to make this about Europe?

:39:29. > :39:31.What is your sense? I think most of the public meetings that I have gone

:39:32. > :39:37.to and most of the people I have spoken to seem on the engaged with

:39:38. > :39:40.the issue, even if it is the issue that Labour politicians like John

:39:41. > :39:44.McDonnell would like them to be engaged with. People aren't trying

:39:45. > :39:47.to stick two fingers up to the Government, they are maybe sending

:39:48. > :39:50.the elite a message about immigration but it is about the

:39:51. > :39:55.European Union not about the UK Government. I would agree 6789

:39:56. > :40:01.Although you could say, you could say, it is a by-election about the

:40:02. > :40:04.establishment, or the elite as the out camp have tended to call them.

:40:05. > :40:09.Whatever happens even if Remain should edge it, about half of the

:40:10. > :40:13.country will have listened to every major party leader, except Nigel

:40:14. > :40:17.Farage about three-quarters of the MPs in the House of Commons and

:40:18. > :40:21.every professional body you can think of, scientist, to doctor, to

:40:22. > :40:24.people in the arts world, who have been advising them to vote in and

:40:25. > :40:31.about half the country will have voted out S And that half of the

:40:32. > :40:34.country, where it is is important, if as expected London and Scotland

:40:35. > :40:41.are carrying the Remain vote, what does that tell you about the divide?

:40:42. > :40:45.If their votes ending up leading to an overall Remain vote that will

:40:46. > :40:50.cause resentment that there is a planet London and there are is

:40:51. > :40:54.resentment between parts of England and Scotland, the UK is divided and

:40:55. > :40:59.this will add to that sense. That would be true if it goes the other

:41:00. > :41:04.way, Scots who are clearly goingtor, most vote to stay will be resentful

:41:05. > :41:07.and it may lead to another referendum on independence, we know,

:41:08. > :41:12.we are clear a lot of London is going to be majority in. London

:41:13. > :41:16.would have as much right to be resentful back towards England if

:41:17. > :41:20.the rest of England enforces are saying you are cutting our throats

:41:21. > :41:25.and your own, so it could go both ways. How many party leaders will

:41:26. > :41:29.have left their job by the end of this week, do you think? You go

:41:30. > :41:34.first. The Conservatives have tried hard to make it clear that Cameron

:41:35. > :41:39.will stay on, to steer the course if there is a Leave vote but we will

:41:40. > :41:45.have to set out a clear timetable for his departure. I would say

:41:46. > :41:49.maximum one. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn will disappear this week. If

:41:50. > :41:53.anybody will say it will be David Cameron. Thank you both very much

:41:54. > :42:03.indeed. A reminder of how things are going

:42:04. > :42:06.in the North East. There is the percentage, 50%, 41%. 59 for Leave.

:42:07. > :42:28.41 for Remain. And... Nice to have the percentages

:42:29. > :42:31.for, the north-west. 59%, 41% Remain, London so far, let us leave

:42:32. > :42:38.the figures and see the percentage if we can.

:42:39. > :42:47.31% Leave. It is running at 69 percent Remain. Hammersmith and

:42:48. > :42:57.Fulham are in. 70% for Remain and 30 percent for Leave.

:42:58. > :43:00.Now we are joined by somebody who was Secretary of State for Wales

:43:01. > :43:06.until recently, until Iain Duncan Smith walked out of cabinet and he

:43:07. > :43:11.became Secretary of State for work and pension, Steven crab. Thank you

:43:12. > :43:17.for joining us. Is Wales proving a bit of a disappointment to the

:43:18. > :43:22.Remain campaign? Well, I mean it is early days and we will see what the

:43:23. > :43:26.rest of the night holds for us, but I am not purr priced by the early

:43:27. > :43:30.results we have seen for Wales. I felt for a number of years that the

:43:31. > :43:33.politics of Wales were being reshaped profoundly, and what you

:43:34. > :43:37.are seeing in the South Wales valleys and some of the north Wales

:43:38. > :43:42.Labour seats is the same phenomenon you are seeing in the North East of

:43:43. > :43:47.England and in some of the other old industrial white working class areas

:43:48. > :43:50.of England, a large number of voters saying sorry we don't believe the

:43:51. > :43:54.Labour Party, or the Government, in the way they tell us that Europe and

:43:55. > :44:00.the European Union is good for us. That is going to be one of the

:44:01. > :44:02.strong themes of tonight, the way the white working class Britain,

:44:03. > :44:06.England and Wales haven't trusted the messages that we have been

:44:07. > :44:11.trying hard to communicate about why staying part of the single market is

:44:12. > :44:14.so important for their jobs and manufacturing, and for revitalising

:44:15. > :44:21.the old industrial areas. If at the end of the night, we turn out to

:44:22. > :44:26.have a Brexit vote, the Chancellor said there will be an emergency

:44:27. > :44:31.budget. David Cameron said he will carry on, with getting out of the

:44:32. > :44:37.EU. Do you think both things will happen, will there be an emergency

:44:38. > :44:42.budget or was that a threat and what people off for voting for Remain It

:44:43. > :44:46.is too early to speculate what theout come -- outcome will be, we

:44:47. > :44:50.know it will be very close, clearly there is deep divisions in the

:44:51. > :44:56.country in terms of the voting patterns. I spent today out of

:44:57. > :44:59.London in Wales, and when I came to London I didn't share the same

:45:00. > :45:04.feeling some of my Remain colleagues did who spent the day in London

:45:05. > :45:08.campaigning and were reporting a strong and positive message. We have

:45:09. > :45:11.to listen to what the messages are coming from this referendum. It is

:45:12. > :45:15.too early to speculate on what the outcomes and implications will be in

:45:16. > :45:17.terms of government actions to respond to what the scenario will

:45:18. > :45:21.look like tomorrow and the day after, but in terms of the

:45:22. > :45:24.leadership, I think it is eseven that will that David Cameron stays

:45:25. > :45:28.on as Prime Minister, he has a clear mandate to be Prime Minister and to

:45:29. > :45:32.lead a government that provides stable governance for the country.

:45:33. > :45:35.It is essential he does that. What what your failure to persuade Tory

:45:36. > :45:44.supporters in Wales to vote remain? And that is part of the picture.

:45:45. > :45:50.Wales is one of those parts of the UK that Dibley gets more European

:45:51. > :45:55.money than elsewhere. Large manufacturers have located their

:45:56. > :46:00.plants there, largely on the back of the European single market, but

:46:01. > :46:05.clearly people up and down Wales haven't recognised the benefit of

:46:06. > :46:09.that their own individual lives, and there isn't any kind of emotional

:46:10. > :46:14.attachment from the people of Wales the European Union. We will spend

:46:15. > :46:18.the coming weeks and months asking questions about why that is, but

:46:19. > :46:23.clearly politics in Wales has shifted, it looks a lot more like

:46:24. > :46:26.than the politics of the rest of England outside London, rather than

:46:27. > :46:32.Scotland which people were comparing it to just a few years ago. Thank

:46:33. > :46:36.you very much. John McDonnell, I want to ask you about Labour. Andy

:46:37. > :46:43.Burnham was a candidate for the leadership and has said the message

:46:44. > :46:48.to Labour from voters Bolieve should be, we have heard you, we understand

:46:49. > :46:55.what you are saying, we have got to change. Do you agree with that? Yes.

:46:56. > :47:01.Well why haven't you been listening? We have been listening, but clearly

:47:02. > :47:04.the people don't think we have listened enough, and we haven't come

:47:05. > :47:10.back on those issues they have confronted us on. How would you come

:47:11. > :47:14.back on immigration? I think we need to look at free movement of labour.

:47:15. > :47:20.The issues on the doorstep with regards to immigration is at the

:47:21. > :47:23.feelings of people having their wages undercut, pressure on public

:47:24. > :47:28.services and a deep feeling of insecurity. What would you propose?

:47:29. > :47:34.In terms of free movement of labour, I don't think we have got the

:47:35. > :47:41.message through effectively, we need to protect people from having their

:47:42. > :47:50.wages undercut so that means changes in employment law. That sort of

:47:51. > :47:54.employment rights approach is one that we can protect. In terms of

:47:55. > :47:56.fresh on public services, we have said time and again that the

:47:57. > :48:00.Government was wrong to scrap the migration fund that was assisting

:48:01. > :48:04.areas that came under particular pressure, and it does reflect the

:48:05. > :48:09.austerities measures that the Government have introduced. A lot of

:48:10. > :48:12.the grievances that have come up with regard to immigration I have to

:48:13. > :48:17.say are a reflection of what has happened in terms of austerity under

:48:18. > :48:21.this Government. This Government has cut the NHS, hasn't provided enough

:48:22. > :48:25.school places, so I think there is a whole debate to be had, and we have

:48:26. > :48:30.to say yes, we are listening to what people are telling us. It will be

:48:31. > :48:37.too late, you will be out of the EU anyway. They will be irrelevant.

:48:38. > :48:43.Whatever happens, we have to have a better relationship with the

:48:44. > :48:52.European Union, and that has to be negotiated. John Mann is joining us,

:48:53. > :48:55.you are in favour of leaving the EU. What would you say to Mr McDonnell

:48:56. > :49:01.about the way Labour have handled the campaign? Labour are somewhat

:49:02. > :49:05.out of touch, and I'm surprised you are not calling for a Leave victory,

:49:06. > :49:11.because every single result that has come through was predictable in the

:49:12. > :49:26.coalfields where there are no results out yet, I predict it will

:49:27. > :49:32.be 2-1 for Leave. Even in Scotland, Dundee, the Scottish heartland for

:49:33. > :49:39.the SNP, every party in the Scottish Parliament voting to remain, 40%

:49:40. > :49:42.voted to leave. Wales is going to vote majority leave, Northern

:49:43. > :49:49.Ireland is going to vote a majority Leave. It leaves London, but if we

:49:50. > :49:54.take that Dagenham result, even in London, there is huge disparity. And

:49:55. > :49:58.Labour voters have decisively voted to leave the European Union. Where

:49:59. > :50:02.have Labour got it wrong, then? Lets not going to speculation about

:50:03. > :50:06.whether you are right about all those places, we will have to wait

:50:07. > :50:12.and see what happens. Where have Labour gone wrong? Labour has gone

:50:13. > :50:18.wrong by not being in touch with its voters. I have been saying this for

:50:19. > :50:22.the last 10-year is in relation to immigration and free movement of

:50:23. > :50:28.labour. I have been saying it in relation to what the offer is to

:50:29. > :50:31.working class people. It is not something new in this campaign, and

:50:32. > :50:39.not the only one, but it is a small number have been saying it at the

:50:40. > :50:49.national level in labour. And you think... What they are offering

:50:50. > :50:52.young people is zero-hour contracts, agency and work, and people are sick

:50:53. > :50:57.to death of it, and they have had enough. That is why in my area and

:50:58. > :51:00.elsewhere, Labour voters are eroding in huge numbers to leave the

:51:01. > :51:04.European Union. John McDonnell comedy is the key is right? I think

:51:05. > :51:08.he is right on a number of policy issues, but we have already said we

:51:09. > :51:15.will scrap zero hours contracts. In terms of insecurity at work, we have

:51:16. > :51:23.said we will tackle the issue of undermining trade union rights. We

:51:24. > :51:26.want to have the workforce more involved in presenters company

:51:27. > :51:35.boards, so all those issues, we used to deal with. Issue for us or its

:51:36. > :51:39.hat if you look at the shape of the vote tonight, it is those areas that

:51:40. > :51:43.are not gaining in anyway from the supposedly recovery in the economy,

:51:44. > :51:49.and have suffered economically in the last decade, that are voting to

:51:50. > :51:53.Leave. I think yes it is a reflection of what they think about

:51:54. > :51:56.the European Union not insisting them, but it is also a reflection of

:51:57. > :52:00.the condemnation of the Government's policies in the last few years, and

:52:01. > :52:21.there are real grievances out there and we need to get those across.

:52:22. > :52:25.Theresa de Villiers,? At the moment, as a member of the European Union,

:52:26. > :52:36.we do not govern our own affairs. It doesn't matter who you vote for in a

:52:37. > :52:39.devolved administration, you need the control. See you think it is a

:52:40. > :52:44.constitutional issue, not that people have felt left behind with

:52:45. > :52:50.static wages, uncertainty about their jobs? People feel a lack of

:52:51. > :52:53.control over all. They feel not represented by the political elite

:52:54. > :52:57.as they describe it, but they don't feel represented in Europe either,

:52:58. > :53:01.so they feel a lack of control over those very bread-and-butter issues

:53:02. > :53:05.about whether they can get a decent job, wages, a roof over their head

:53:06. > :53:08.and education for their children. When we have talked to hundreds of

:53:09. > :53:12.voters around the country, for lots of people it has been a whole

:53:13. > :53:16.mixture of things, but people have really thought about these issues,

:53:17. > :53:19.they having gauged, they have thought about the European Union. It

:53:20. > :53:25.has been about identity, and that is a complex thing. We hear politicians

:53:26. > :53:34.say allsorts of things, voters have thought deeply about this, many of

:53:35. > :53:38.them. You can't just miss -- dismiss it and say it is about this or that.

:53:39. > :53:54.We have got Liverpool in. Let's see the figures. 85,000 leave and

:53:55. > :54:00.118,000 Remain. That is 42% leave, 58% remain. And the United Kingdom

:54:01. > :54:05.as a whole, it was there, but it has gone. There we are. This is how

:54:06. > :54:15.things are looking at the moment, pretty well even, 3.7 million either

:54:16. > :54:18.side. We have had 103 of 382 of our counting areas in. Islington has

:54:19. > :54:31.just come in, Jeremy Corbyn's part of the world. 25,000 Leave, 76,000

:54:32. > :54:36.Remain. So, John Mann, thank you very much for joining us. Let's go

:54:37. > :54:40.to Jeremy. What have you got for us? I think we will collect some results

:54:41. > :54:44.and look at the map. We have enough results that we can show you the map

:54:45. > :54:50.of the UK, and it is worth just taking in what the pattern is here.

:54:51. > :54:55.So here we see, where remain have come first in a counting area, they

:54:56. > :54:59.get yellow. Where Leave come first, they get their area coloured blue,

:55:00. > :55:04.and you see immediately a lot of yellow in Scotland, so if it does go

:55:05. > :55:15.at the end of the night to remain, Scotland going powerfully from

:55:16. > :55:22.Remain. I can show you a heat map which displays how powerful the

:55:23. > :55:27.support for leave is. On this map, to explain, where it is The Dark

:55:28. > :55:32.Blues, leave had more votes. Where it is light blue, they have softer

:55:33. > :55:35.support. So you see immediately, Scotland, that situation underlying,

:55:36. > :55:39.where Leave isn't getting anything like the numbers it is getting

:55:40. > :55:43.elsewhere, and London as well, you can see just down here in the

:55:44. > :55:47.south-east how like it is, just here in the centre of London, those

:55:48. > :55:52.results we have had so far. But had out towards Essex man suddenly the

:55:53. > :55:58.Blues get darker. And if you look at the whole of the map, and just look

:55:59. > :56:01.at the amount of dark blueberries in the North particularly, the North of

:56:02. > :56:04.England, the north-east, that is how we started the night, with some

:56:05. > :56:09.remarkable results from the north-east. So Leave is packing a

:56:10. > :56:14.powerful punch a lot of places outside London and Scotland. But

:56:15. > :56:19.maybe London and Scotland will pull back from Remain. This is our

:56:20. > :56:24.proportional map, and we show you hear each counting area as a stalk,

:56:25. > :56:29.and the stalkers coloured in the colour of the side that won. And the

:56:30. > :56:34.crucial thing is this, the height of the stalk shows you the winning

:56:35. > :56:40.margin. Here in Scotland, that is Glasgow, the highest torque. You can

:56:41. > :56:43.see that Remain won there large margin. But if you look down south,

:56:44. > :56:48.just to remind you of the sheer volume of votes available in London.

:56:49. > :56:53.That is Lambeth, and other results we have had from London where remain

:56:54. > :56:56.is winning with powerful results. But elsewhere, come in close if you

:56:57. > :57:01.can from moment and have a look at this. This is a proportional map.

:57:02. > :57:06.You are seeing so many of these blue stalks. There are so many places

:57:07. > :57:09.where leave his winning outside London and Scotland, and actually

:57:10. > :57:14.the margins of those leave victories are really very powerful, so yes,

:57:15. > :57:19.there may not be as many voters outside London, but my goodness, the

:57:20. > :57:24.margins are Leave are making it very difficult to Remain to make up the

:57:25. > :57:30.ground. Thank you, Jeremy. Castle Point in

:57:31. > :57:36.Essex, the main Canvey Island, one of the largest proportion of

:57:37. > :57:41.predominantly English speaking white people in the UK, and expected to go

:57:42. > :57:51.very much for leave, and this is what they did. 73% leave, 27%

:57:52. > :57:54.remain. Andrew Sinclair is in Chelmsford, political correspondent

:57:55. > :58:04.for the Eastern region. Andrew, good evening. Tell us what is happening

:58:05. > :58:08.in the East as far as you can. We just had that Castle Point results

:58:09. > :58:17.through, as you joined us. These things have always been seen to be

:58:18. > :58:21.Euro-sceptic, we have a strong Euro-sceptic feeling in this part of

:58:22. > :58:25.the world. Douglas Carswell has his seat just down the road, and four

:58:26. > :58:30.out of the 7 euros MPs had eased of England have been in the Leave camp.

:58:31. > :58:34.So the expectation was we would always see quite a strong Leave vote

:58:35. > :58:43.tonight, and indeed that is what we have been seeing. 69% to leave in

:58:44. > :58:49.Basildon, highs 69%, Rochford 64%. The count behind me at the one

:58:50. > :58:53.moment they thought that was a good chance that they can go to Leave.

:58:54. > :58:57.Further afield I'm starting to hear stories coming out of places like

:58:58. > :59:02.Finland, Great Yarmouth, Ipswich, that Leave could do there as well.

:59:03. > :59:09.Tim Donovan is in Guildhall. Tim, good evening. London. Is it hacking

:59:10. > :59:17.it is Forrester remain campaign is concerned? Is it pulling its weight?

:59:18. > :59:23.Six results out of 33 expected tonight, and there is a pattern

:59:24. > :59:27.emerging. Big hefty wins for the Remain camp, in Lambeth, Wandsworth,

:59:28. > :59:33.here in the city itself, and in Hammersmith, in Islington and

:59:34. > :59:38.Barking and Dagenham, though, has gone to leave. We are trying to get

:59:39. > :59:41.our head around what we think will emerge as the significant factor

:59:42. > :59:48.here in London, maybe assist the variations in turnout, and while

:59:49. > :59:52.Lambeth, the Lambeth victory was seven 9% remain to 21%, it was

:59:53. > :59:55.alternative 60s of the centre, which is going to be lower than the

:59:56. > :59:59.turnout we're hearing elsewhere parts of the country, albeit people

:00:00. > :00:04.telling me that is- that part of the world. The key issue appears to be

:00:05. > :00:09.from the turnout figures we are getting so far for up it is places

:00:10. > :00:13.like Richmond, 82% turnout, and we will get that shortly, we are told.

:00:14. > :00:18.Bexley in the 70s Croydon Simmerling. The turnout is higher in

:00:19. > :00:22.the London area, and all the polling up to this referendum in London

:00:23. > :00:25.suggested that gap between remain and leaving London narrowed

:00:26. > :00:31.dramatically out of London, and that appears to be very much where the

:00:32. > :00:34.secret or the answer in London will light a night. And turnout effective

:00:35. > :00:39.tour by weather, people early on were saying this monsoon rain London

:00:40. > :00:43.has been suffering and the flooding and all the rest of it has brought

:00:44. > :00:49.the turnout down, and that would affect the Remain raw numbers,

:00:50. > :00:52.because we keep reminding people it is not to wince where, it is

:00:53. > :00:58.actually in the end the number of people who vote one way or the

:00:59. > :01:01.other. It depends on you talk to. The returning officer here were

:01:02. > :01:05.saying he expected the turnout across London to be seven four, 70

:01:06. > :01:12.5%, which is very high by London stand. It got into the early 80s

:01:13. > :01:16.back in 1950. There was a certain amount of disruption first thing

:01:17. > :01:23.this morning, but only seven polling stations out of those 3700 there are

:01:24. > :01:27.in London were actually disrupt, very briefly. It is not

:01:28. > :01:30.automatically clear that the weather has made a difference, and it may

:01:31. > :01:36.well mean that people being delayed in London as they were in Waterloo

:01:37. > :01:39.station or whatever, that might have affected the turnout in the vote in

:01:40. > :01:45.areas outside of London. But it is not being blamed. We have had

:01:46. > :01:52.Richmond-upon-Thames while you were talking, 31% leave, 69% Remain. A

:01:53. > :01:55.very high proportion of people with degrees, and apparently people with

:01:56. > :02:01.degrees tend to vote Remain. Do you agree with that, Theresa Villiers?

:02:02. > :02:07.Do you have a degree? Ers in Wales to vote remain? That is

:02:08. > :02:12.what some of the pundits are saying. Do you believe it? Do you believe

:02:13. > :02:18.this, it is almost the kind of class division that has been established,

:02:19. > :02:21.isn't it, in the minds of psephologist, people with degrees,

:02:22. > :02:28.better off, vote Remain. There was, I was in no doubt there is a strong

:02:29. > :02:33.support for Leave among the working classes, I think they have in many

:02:34. > :02:38.ways been at the sharp end of the depression of wages which has come

:02:39. > :02:42.from mass migration from Europe, so they have felt directly some of the

:02:43. > :02:47.difficulties that come with our EU membership, and I think that is one

:02:48. > :02:50.of the reasons why many of them... Could Labour have done belter, do

:02:51. > :02:58.you think, to get them out for their side? I don't know, because they,

:02:59. > :03:01.the trouble was that in the renegotiation, Europe's leaders were

:03:02. > :03:07.fundamentally opposed to significant changes to free movement. Once that

:03:08. > :03:10.decision was made, it is difficult for people to convince, you know,

:03:11. > :03:14.those who are concerned about immigration it is possible to get

:03:15. > :03:18.things changed. Theresa Villiers, you sound hesitant about endorsing

:03:19. > :03:24.that theory, that people who don't have degrees or who are less

:03:25. > :03:29.educated were more on your side, but the out campaign went for that

:03:30. > :03:33.narrative. You built that on the idea of David versus Goliath, the

:03:34. > :03:38.gilded cage of London versus the rest of the country, and it appears

:03:39. > :03:41.so far the pattern of results suggest that that narrative really

:03:42. > :03:45.appealed to a lot of voters and maybe they were on to something.

:03:46. > :03:49.They tried to make it a battle between the haves and have-nots and

:03:50. > :03:53.it appears still only half way through the night, are we half way

:03:54. > :03:57.through? Almost there, it appears people are responding to that and

:03:58. > :04:01.they didn't respond as strongly to the other side of the argument,

:04:02. > :04:05.which was trying to frighten the life out of people on the economy.

:04:06. > :04:09.We are less than one third through. You may feel it is half way through

:04:10. > :04:16.the night. We are only getting down to business. It goes along with this

:04:17. > :04:20.contempt for, I mean the thing Boris Johnson went with, this contempt for

:04:21. > :04:26.experts. People have had enough of them. We have had enough of the

:04:27. > :04:31.Governor of the Bank of England, enough of the INF. Enough of

:04:32. > :04:36.anybody, we have had enough of economists. But a fascinating thing

:04:37. > :04:42.Steven crab said, people don't believe u he used that phrase. He

:04:43. > :04:47.said in a general context people don't believe us, which, it strikes

:04:48. > :04:51.me that is an astonishing thing for a member of the Cabinet to say. How

:04:52. > :04:56.do you regress it? That is a difficult challenge. If we end up,

:04:57. > :05:01.whatever the result is, which ever side is jubilant, went up with

:05:02. > :05:05.London being an island and the rest of the country, pointing fingers

:05:06. > :05:09.saying you don't understand, for any Government, any political party it

:05:10. > :05:15.is going to be difficult to find way forward from that. Patrick is back,

:05:16. > :05:20.in Birmingham. Welcome back Patrick, what more news have you got now?

:05:21. > :05:26.Well, I think interesting developments really in the sense all

:05:27. > :05:31.right, no great surprise that places like North Warwickshire, Tamworth,

:05:32. > :05:39.Cannock on the outer edge have voted to leave, I think that was expected,

:05:40. > :05:43.but Malvern hill, that was much less according to the algorithms we have

:05:44. > :05:50.been talking about, much likely to vote Leave, it has done by a

:05:51. > :05:59.comfortable majority of 53% to 47%. That is the real accuse safety for

:06:00. > :06:02.the Remain campaign. -- anxiety. The Remain campaign is braced for

:06:03. > :06:07.substantial defeats in and round the Black Country, and one example of

:06:08. > :06:14.what is bound to be interpreted as the relative failure frankly of

:06:15. > :06:18.Labour to bring out their Remain support in core area, Sandwell which

:06:19. > :06:23.is jokingly referred to as a one party state, yet the turn out there,

:06:24. > :06:26.just 66%, which I think demonstrates what will be seen as Labour's

:06:27. > :06:31.failure there and I can tell you Ukip will be saying over the next

:06:32. > :06:37.few days, that they stand ready to do to Labour in their core areas in

:06:38. > :06:41.England, what the SNP have done to Labour's support in Scotland. I was

:06:42. > :06:46.talking to one quite prominent local Labour MP who says that on the

:06:47. > :06:51.immigration issues, Labour has to change tack, it has to say to

:06:52. > :06:55.people, we get it, we realise you are concerned about immigration,

:06:56. > :07:00.that it doesn't make you a racist to have these anxieties and to change

:07:01. > :07:06.the tenor of this debate rather than try to sort of present it in more

:07:07. > :07:11.simple more traditional party terms. So I think there are big questions.

:07:12. > :07:17.If Britain votes out, they have all the mechanisms they want, because

:07:18. > :07:19.there will be will no automatic EU immigration, so presumably John

:07:20. > :07:29.McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn will be able to do what they want. Yes, I

:07:30. > :07:34.think there is a debate here for the Labour Party, I think we are just at

:07:35. > :07:39.the beginnings of this, interestingly, that turn outs again

:07:40. > :07:43.do seem to be lower in the traditional core Labour areas, that

:07:44. > :07:58.is again, a big worry for the party's leadership it seems to me.

:07:59. > :08:02.Four million 389,000 for Leave, we have 122 out of 382 declared so only

:08:03. > :08:10.a third of the way through. Emily. Let us talk to the Conservative MP

:08:11. > :08:13.Bill Cash. I suppose we might call you an early Eurosceptic, and when

:08:14. > :08:19.you look at where we are tonight, a third of the votes in, but let us

:08:20. > :08:24.call it a high possibility that it could be a Brexit by the end of the

:08:25. > :08:29.night, what are your thoughts? Well, I am, watching it with enormous

:08:30. > :08:33.interest, and I am being very cautious, because at the moment

:08:34. > :08:37.things are going in the right direction. I believe this is about

:08:38. > :08:41.the common-sense of the British people, they didn't buy the

:08:42. > :08:45.Armageddon argument, and above all else, they want to govern

:08:46. > :08:49.themselves, and that is really the basis even when I set up the

:08:50. > :08:53.Maastricht referendum campaign all those years ago, that is what I said

:08:54. > :08:56.it was going to be about. About European Government and whether the

:08:57. > :08:59.British people want to govern themselves and I think that is

:09:00. > :09:05.coming through at the moment. I am not going to make any prediction, I

:09:06. > :09:10.am not a John curty, I am just going to -- Curtis. There is only one John

:09:11. > :09:15.Curtice as we shout in the stalls. But in terms of what you think might

:09:16. > :09:19.happen, in the event of a Brexit, do you think that David Cameron should

:09:20. > :09:23.stay on? Would you like him to trigger article 50 straightaway?

:09:24. > :09:28.What do you see as the next step? I certainly don't think that we should

:09:29. > :09:34.trigger article 50 straightaway, actually, it ties us right in to the

:09:35. > :09:39.question of the consent of the European Parliament to the deal, the

:09:40. > :09:44.majority voting, it puts us as enormous disadvantage, because it is

:09:45. > :09:48.part of the Lisbon Treaty, if we have voted against the treaties, why

:09:49. > :09:53.would we want to implement one of the provisions, which ties us down

:09:54. > :09:57.when actually we have a Bert opportunity, to be able to work out

:09:58. > :10:00.a negotiated deal on the basis of the vote which is actually led to a

:10:01. > :10:04.Brexit if that is what happens. You skirted past the first bit of that

:10:05. > :10:10.question, do you think David Cameron should stay in the job? Did you sign

:10:11. > :10:16.the letter? I simply say this, that it is very difficult if you are in

:10:17. > :10:20.Number Ten, with all the Government departments, each one of which

:10:21. > :10:24.reports to 2 cabinet secretary and of course obviously dealing with the

:10:25. > :10:29.Cabinet Office as well, the, as chairman of the European scrutiny

:10:30. > :10:31.committee I am very conscious of the interaction between Government

:10:32. > :10:37.departments, and the European issue, and I can simply say this, it has to

:10:38. > :10:40.be done from within Number Ten, and therefore, whoever is in Number Ten

:10:41. > :10:45.would need to be absolutely and completely committed to Brexit,

:10:46. > :10:49.because this is going to be a very very very important and historic

:10:50. > :10:54.development for the UK. It wouldn't be odd for you to reckon on a Brexit

:10:55. > :10:57.campaigner, a Tory leader? Well, look, I am not going to go down

:10:58. > :11:02.there, because we don't know what the result is, I am just simply

:11:03. > :11:06.giving you my view as chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee and

:11:07. > :11:12.making the point as far as I am concerned the question of who runs

:11:13. > :11:17.the ultimate European policy, has to be in Number Ten and to do that and

:11:18. > :11:19.to negotiate with all the implications for European

:11:20. > :11:24.legislation, right the way across the board of all Government

:11:25. > :11:28.department, they will have to unravel about 55% of all our law,

:11:29. > :11:32.so, because those come from the European Union, We have heard from

:11:33. > :11:36.the Labour side, people throwing up different ideas as to why

:11:37. > :11:40.particularly in the North East and Sunderland and Newcastle, it seems

:11:41. > :11:45.to be such a strong vote towards Brexit. Do you think this is purely

:11:46. > :11:51.about Europe o, or do you concede it is about a whole host of other

:11:52. > :11:54.dissatisfactions in people's lives? I think they interact and you only

:11:55. > :11:58.have to look across to Europe itself, to see there are protests

:11:59. > :12:02.and rites goes on there, -- riots going on there, there is massive

:12:03. > :12:08.unemployment, youth unemployment up at 60% and so on. Really and truly

:12:09. > :12:12.the bottom line is this business of people wanting to govern themselves,

:12:13. > :12:15.I was talking to a lady this morning, in the greengrocers shop,

:12:16. > :12:21.and I said you know, what do you intend to do? She said, very simply,

:12:22. > :12:26.she said, I want to leave. Why did they die in the last war? That is

:12:27. > :12:32.the kind of thing that is motivating people. They want to know whether in

:12:33. > :12:35.fact they can govern themselves and they ask themselves these much deep

:12:36. > :12:40.ever questions, than some of the things about whether or not there is

:12:41. > :12:45.a shallow recession as the IFS puts it or whatever. It is actually much

:12:46. > :12:50.deeper than that, and I think this is the soul of the British people,

:12:51. > :12:53.coming out, and saying, we have actually had enough of being

:12:54. > :12:58.governed by other country, we want to co-operate with them, we want to

:12:59. > :13:01.trade with them but we don't want to be governed by them, there is a

:13:02. > :13:05.German question as well, because they are becoming dominant in

:13:06. > :13:11.Europe. That is also a factor. OK, thank you very much.

:13:12. > :13:16.So let us see where things are, 3.15. John Curtice, where are

:13:17. > :13:20.things? We have seen a lot of results during the course of the

:13:21. > :13:24.night, where by it looks as though the Leave side have been doing well

:13:25. > :13:29.and better than we expected they would do, in that Local Authority,

:13:30. > :13:34.if we were looking at a 50-50 outcome, conversely we have also

:13:35. > :13:38.seen some places, most notably in London, where the, Remain side are

:13:39. > :13:42.doing rather better, but the truth is that so far at least we have had

:13:43. > :13:45.many more places where Leave are doing better than expected than

:13:46. > :13:51.where Remain are doing better than expected. Particularly the North

:13:52. > :13:55.East, the north-west, and the West Midlands are places where the Leave

:13:56. > :13:59.side do seem to be doing remarkably well. Remain yes in London, better

:14:00. > :14:04.than expected, perhaps in the south-west, but those better

:14:05. > :14:08.performances in London so far at least, just don't look to be

:14:09. > :14:12.sufficiently better than expecting to compensate for what appear to be

:14:13. > :14:16.adverse performances in the North East, north-west, and the West

:14:17. > :14:23.Midlands, there is an awful lot of vote domts in. We, although we -- to

:14:24. > :14:28.come in. But, certainly one we are looking at a close referendum, but

:14:29. > :14:32.two, probably at the moment, the Leave side are a bit more of the

:14:33. > :14:36.favourites in this referendum, than are the Remain side, so that is not

:14:37. > :14:41.a forecast, but it is certainly seems to be the direction of

:14:42. > :14:44.channel, perhaps the Leave side, just, just managing to win this

:14:45. > :14:48.referendum by the end of the night, but many more results to come. To

:14:49. > :14:56.clarify it for people who may just have come in on this act, your

:14:57. > :14:59.expectations were based on 50-50, on even results so if your expectations

:15:00. > :15:03.are disappointed one way or the other, its means it is going to go

:15:04. > :15:08.one way or the other. That is the current direction of travel. We

:15:09. > :15:12.never expect it all to work perfectly. The point is at the

:15:13. > :15:17.moment at least we have more places where Leave are doing better than we

:15:18. > :15:21.expected, than we have places where Remain were doing better than

:15:22. > :15:25.expected, and if that pattern continues during the night Leave

:15:26. > :15:29.will win the referendum, but there is a lot more to come.

:15:30. > :15:41.Hilary Benn is here and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Hilary Benn, 41 years ago

:15:42. > :15:45.I sat with your dad, I think probably an referendum night, and he

:15:46. > :15:49.said, the problem with the EU is it is undemocratic. Is what we are

:15:50. > :15:54.seeing tonight the British electorate catching up with him? In

:15:55. > :15:59.those days, it was two thirds to one third, and now it is looking 50/50

:16:00. > :16:03.if not a bit the other way. I'm tempted to say it is not yet late

:16:04. > :16:07.enough to know, which is a different one of saying it is too early to

:16:08. > :16:13.say. But it is clear watching the results coming in that one leads and

:16:14. > :16:16.then the other. What is happening is the country is split absolutely down

:16:17. > :16:22.the middle on this, and it is partly to do with the EU, it is partly to

:16:23. > :16:25.do with other changes people have seen, concerns they have, the

:16:26. > :16:30.continuing effects of the global crash, the way in which communities

:16:31. > :16:34.have changed, immigration, all of those things, and they are bound up

:16:35. > :16:39.in this referendum. Of course I met people on the campaign Trail who

:16:40. > :16:43.said we want to take our own decisions. The argument is how you

:16:44. > :16:46.best influence the decisions in the world when there are some things you

:16:47. > :16:51.have to decide on a European level. Was it wrong to have the referendum

:16:52. > :16:54.at all? We didn't want the referendum because we are not in

:16:55. > :16:58.favour of leaving, the Conservatives won the election and the British

:16:59. > :17:01.people will now make the choice. Is it a mistake to have this

:17:02. > :17:05.referendum? I don't think so, particularly because it looks as if

:17:06. > :17:12.we might win, and if we win, it was a good idea. Is it a good way to

:17:13. > :17:16.decide things like this? People are saying it doesn't become an issue

:17:17. > :17:21.about the EU, it becomes about poverty and discontent of all kinds.

:17:22. > :17:27.I don't agree with that. It isn't what you pretend it is about. Most

:17:28. > :17:30.of this was about the European Union and being economically attached to

:17:31. > :17:34.Europe, and saying that that was beneficial. The leave side were

:17:35. > :17:39.saying that there was a lack of democracy, a lack of control, and

:17:40. > :17:43.about immigration. It seems to me that the one area where referendums

:17:44. > :17:46.are absolutely right is on constitutional matters, because the

:17:47. > :17:50.one thing Parliament can never do is give away its own power. That has to

:17:51. > :17:54.be returned and tired of the electorate every five years. Within

:17:55. > :17:58.that five years, there is discretion to act, but the power must be

:17:59. > :18:01.returned to the voters in each general election, and the problem

:18:02. > :18:05.with the European Union is that power has steadily eroded and been

:18:06. > :18:09.given away to unelected officials in Brussels. But you don't have to ask

:18:10. > :18:13.this kind of question, and you could leave the EU by dint of a general

:18:14. > :18:20.election. Having a party that... If Ukip formed a Government we could

:18:21. > :18:23.leave that we. If you take the view that sovereignty comes from the

:18:24. > :18:26.British people and is dedicated to Parliament for five years, which is

:18:27. > :18:29.a witty traditional view of parliamentary sovereignty, then you

:18:30. > :18:36.would agree that the one thing we the people must be consulted is when

:18:37. > :18:39.there is a fundamental change in the Constitution, and leaving the

:18:40. > :18:44.European Union would be a concert usual change. But joining was a

:18:45. > :18:48.constitutional change. It should have had a referendum in advance but

:18:49. > :18:56.it had won three years later. So is only call another one now? The

:18:57. > :18:59.theory of referendums was not well developed by 1973. It developed

:19:00. > :19:03.through 1979 with the referendums in Scotland and Wales, likewise in the

:19:04. > :19:07.devolution referendums and referendum for the Mayor of London

:19:08. > :19:13.in the late 1990s, the referendum on the alternative vote. The British

:19:14. > :19:18.constitution over centuries has evolved, and one of the evolutions

:19:19. > :19:20.over the last 40 or 50 years is the biggest constitutional issues are

:19:21. > :19:24.referred to the people, and I think that is a very sensible way to

:19:25. > :19:28.proceed. If you decide there is a need for a constitutional issue to

:19:29. > :19:32.be resolved. That is right. Which you don't necessarily decide. But

:19:33. > :19:36.you think it is a mistake, Hilary Benn, to have this referendum. Do

:19:37. > :19:39.you think that one of the consequences as Jacob Rees-Mogg puts

:19:40. > :19:43.it a constitutional issue has actually attracted all kinds of

:19:44. > :19:49.discontent and turned it probably not into a constitutional issue but

:19:50. > :19:53.a view about... We heard about experts, we don't like the Institute

:19:54. > :19:57.for Fiscal Studies, the Bank of England, the IMF, the wages, the in

:19:58. > :20:01.security, immigration. All of these things got bundled together, so it

:20:02. > :20:06.isn't about the constitution, it is about other things. Let's be clear

:20:07. > :20:09.why we had this referendum, it is because David Cameron realised that

:20:10. > :20:16.he couldn't control his party. That is why we had this referendum, and

:20:17. > :20:21.as you will know, 41 years ago, this is it repeated in mirror image. 41

:20:22. > :20:24.years ago the Labour Party was split, and the Conservatives were

:20:25. > :20:28.united, and they have passed each other in the intervening 41 years,

:20:29. > :20:32.and are now occupying the same position but opposite, and David

:20:33. > :20:36.Cameron, who had resisted having a referendum, decided in the end the

:20:37. > :20:41.anyway I can manage my divided party is to hold the referendum, and we

:20:42. > :20:44.will discover in the not too distant future what the British people have

:20:45. > :20:49.said. Three hours from now, with a bit of luck. Jacob Rees-Mogg, you

:20:50. > :20:53.said about your Chancellor of the Exchequer, he needs to calm down and

:20:54. > :20:58.stop talking nonsense. Do you think he should go? What I was referring

:20:59. > :21:04.to was when he suggested that there should be an Emergency Budget, which

:21:05. > :21:08.was an absolute panic measure, and George Osborne is a fine Chancellor

:21:09. > :21:11.who has done a lot of good things as Chancellor, but that panic budget

:21:12. > :21:16.was a very silly thing to say. He did need to calm down. It was

:21:17. > :21:18.something that wouldn't happen, wouldn't get through Parliament and

:21:19. > :21:23.wouldn't be the right economic response even if the Chancellor

:21:24. > :21:28.tried to do it, so I thought that was a foolish thing for him to have

:21:29. > :21:31.said. And all right to insult him in that we like Heseltine as John

:21:32. > :21:38.Major, humbug and whatever it was, vengeful men and all that. It was a

:21:39. > :21:47.fairer old tit-for-tat, which you getting campaigns. If tomorrow

:21:48. > :21:53.morning we wake up... We will be awake! I am! And Britain is to

:21:54. > :21:56.leave, do you think all that stuff about Emergency Budget will go by

:21:57. > :21:59.the board? Do you think none of the economic problems that the

:22:00. > :22:04.Chancellor foresaw will come to pass? I do not think they will come

:22:05. > :22:10.to pass, I think the Emergency Budget will not happen. There is

:22:11. > :22:15.some volatility in the financial markets. You would expect volatility

:22:16. > :22:17.in Stirling, and that is one of the automatic stabilisers of the

:22:18. > :22:21.economy, I don't think that is a particular problem. The plague of

:22:22. > :22:26.frogs and the death of the first-born that were predicted will

:22:27. > :22:30.not come to pass. And no recession? There will be no recession began of

:22:31. > :22:34.Brexit. There are fragile economic conditions are the other parts of

:22:35. > :22:38.the world, so I can't say no recession ever, but not caused by

:22:39. > :22:43.this specifically. Hilary Benn, do you agree? All of the experts who we

:22:44. > :22:47.are told now that we shouldn't pay much attention to seem to be of the

:22:48. > :22:51.view, and certainly we argued it during the campaign that the country

:22:52. > :22:55.will be worse off economically. One very strong argument for remaining

:22:56. > :23:00.in the European Union. The extent of that, who knows? It depends on the

:23:01. > :23:03.result. But if there were to be a vote to leave, far as the prime and

:23:04. > :23:07.it is concerned, again see how he can remain in his job for very long

:23:08. > :23:11.at all. What does very long at all mean? I think it will be hard for

:23:12. > :23:16.him in those circumstances were that to be the outcome for him to remain.

:23:17. > :23:20.It John Mann said that by the time children were going to school in the

:23:21. > :23:24.morning, he would be gone. I don't know about that, but if you are the

:23:25. > :23:27.Prime Minister, you have called this referendum, you have laid your

:23:28. > :23:31.reputation on the line your arguments, I think it will be very

:23:32. > :23:35.hard, but I am hoping very much that we get a remain vote, and it

:23:36. > :23:42.continues to ebb and flow as we watch the results coming. Laura.

:23:43. > :23:45.Hilary Benn, are you frustrated as somebody who is passionately for the

:23:46. > :23:51.European Union that Labour is somebody who came late to the party,

:23:52. > :23:54.shall we say? When Tom Watson was an earlier, he said it was quite

:23:55. > :23:59.difficult to start with to break into the Conservative fight that was

:24:00. > :24:04.going on, it really was very tough. And we got more of a chance towards

:24:05. > :24:07.the end. But can I just say that all the indications thus far, we will

:24:08. > :24:12.have to see the final result, is that a majority of Labour supporters

:24:13. > :24:15.we think will have voted to Remain, but the problem for the

:24:16. > :24:19.Conservatives, will the Prime Minister be able to say that? I

:24:20. > :24:23.somehow doubt it. Stay with us, and we may be able to talk more, but we

:24:24. > :24:29.have to move on to see how things stand on how far we have got to go.

:24:30. > :24:35.Here is the House of Commons, as dawn comes up, not quite 3:25am, and

:24:36. > :24:41.this is the vote. The centre is the winning post, the red tee line, and

:24:42. > :24:47.it is 6 million leave at the moment and 5.8 million remain. So, Leave

:24:48. > :24:53.has the edge, and the grey bit is the bit that has got to be filled

:24:54. > :24:59.in. Let's go to some more of our reporters, we can go back to Steven

:25:00. > :25:03.Godden in Falkirk. Steve. David, the local business here in Falkirk is

:25:04. > :25:06.finished, all that remains is the people to get up on that stage

:25:07. > :25:11.behind me and to announce the national result here in Scotland. In

:25:12. > :25:15.Falkirk, it very much followed the pattern that it has across Scotland,

:25:16. > :25:19.it was a vote to remain. Within that, some of the numbers came as a

:25:20. > :25:23.bit of a surprise to people, but we are expecting Edinburgh to announce

:25:24. > :25:28.imminently, and the expectoration there is that Edinburgh will vote to

:25:29. > :25:33.remain in large numbers. We also saw a vote in Glasgow of almost 2-1 in

:25:34. > :25:38.favour to remain. There, the interesting thing was turnout. We

:25:39. > :25:44.have had a national figure for turnout in Scotland, just over 67%,

:25:45. > :25:47.but in Glasgow it was 56%, much below the level of support and the

:25:48. > :25:52.level of involvement and engagement that we saw during the independence

:25:53. > :25:55.referendum two years ago. Also across the picture there was an

:25:56. > :25:58.expectation that things were looking a bit patchy at one stage, in

:25:59. > :26:02.certain areas that may have been a bit more sceptical about the EU, an

:26:03. > :26:09.area like Murray, for example, but it voted to remain. So now we only

:26:10. > :26:13.have a handful left, well over the three quarters marquee in Scotland,

:26:14. > :26:16.and all have voted in favour of Remain, so how that fits into the

:26:17. > :26:23.national picture will be fascinating. Thank you, and let's

:26:24. > :26:27.join Mark Devenport now in Belfast. David, the county has been conducted

:26:28. > :26:33.according to the 18 parliamentary constituencies, we are well through

:26:34. > :26:36.the count, with 14 constituencies declared, just waiting on four

:26:37. > :26:40.results. At the moment, Remain is in the lead in Northern Ireland, that

:26:41. > :26:48.was to be expected, we think it is about 54%-46%. Because it is

:26:49. > :26:50.Unionists by and large who have been supporting the Leave camp at

:26:51. > :26:57.nationalists the Remain camp, we would expect of the constituencies

:26:58. > :27:01.to come, most will probably vote for Remain, so they will stretch that

:27:02. > :27:05.lead slightly, so I wouldn't expect anything other than a Remain vote

:27:06. > :27:08.here, but it has to be said that nationalists have not come out in

:27:09. > :27:12.the numbers that may be have been expected previously, we have had

:27:13. > :27:19.some lower turnouts in nationalist areas, so that might mean that the

:27:20. > :27:24.level of the victory that Remain takes in Northern Ireland is less

:27:25. > :27:35.than expected. And now James Williams in Wales, in Deeside.

:27:36. > :27:46.James? I hope you can hear me. We are getting a lot of results coming

:27:47. > :27:50.through here in Wales, so we're trying to keep an eye on them. So

:27:51. > :27:56.far we have had most of the declarations, just four left. 18

:27:57. > :27:59.decorations out of 22, and so far we have had three for Remain,

:28:00. > :28:02.surprisingly Monmouthshire has just voted by the narrowest of margins

:28:03. > :28:07.for Remain, that is a very conservative area. David Davis, one

:28:08. > :28:15.of the more vociferous proponents he represents the seat in Parliament,

:28:16. > :28:19.so that is a surprise result, the Vale of Glamorgan has also voted for

:28:20. > :28:24.Remain, that is Alun Cairns, the Welsh Secretary, seats, and Kerry

:28:25. > :28:32.did you is the other seat that has remained. So there are four left to

:28:33. > :28:45.declare, and of those, we are expecting Gwinnett and Cardiff to

:28:46. > :28:50.remain. It now seems to be down to how large the majority to Remain in

:28:51. > :28:52.Cardiff is. It seems that they don't think they have done enough in

:28:53. > :28:56.Cardiff, that the margin isn't big enough to make up the shortfall that

:28:57. > :29:00.they currently have, but we will have to wait and see what happens in

:29:01. > :29:06.Cardiff, ends it seems it will all hinge on that as to how Wales as a

:29:07. > :29:08.whole votes. Thank you, James. The leave campaign if you now look at

:29:09. > :29:15.the bottom right-hand corner there, ahead by just over 300,000. Jeremy,

:29:16. > :29:23.shall we see how things are settling? If they are? Volatile

:29:24. > :29:28.still, isn't it? It is, and our index is proving very handy in

:29:29. > :29:34.working out what is going on. It is a relief! We put all of these areas

:29:35. > :29:40.into the order of how Eurosceptical they were. Just go back on this

:29:41. > :29:45.ordering, from the mostly in favour of Leave all the way over there to

:29:46. > :29:48.the most Remain all the way over here, and the calculation is done on

:29:49. > :29:54.this basis, and this is really important. Were there to be a 50/50

:29:55. > :30:01.vote across the whole country, where the dotted line is over there, that

:30:02. > :30:06.would be 50/50, so those particular county areas would be absolutely

:30:07. > :30:11.50/50, so what we are lucky for is areas where yellow for Remain pops

:30:12. > :30:15.up where we are expecting bluefin Leave, and vice versa. And so far we

:30:16. > :30:20.have had some interesting results are present. Come with me and I will

:30:21. > :30:23.show you. These are the areas we would expect to be going Remain in

:30:24. > :30:28.an even results, and most of them are, but you can see there, we have

:30:29. > :30:33.heard these results, Lincoln, Swansea, Coventry, Watford, places

:30:34. > :30:39.which we thought would go Remain in the event of a 50/50 result actually

:30:40. > :30:44.going Leave. Remain's response to that has to be the pilot voted their

:30:45. > :30:48.strongest areas. They are hampered by a lower-than-expected turnout in

:30:49. > :30:51.Scotland, and whether they can do that in London is going to be the

:30:52. > :30:58.crucial question of the night. Take a look at this. I am showing you

:30:59. > :31:02.regions. Regions of the UK, Nations and regions, we will start from the

:31:03. > :31:12.right. The colour at the top is the winning colour, so in London, Remain

:31:13. > :31:18.have won. In Scotland, Remain of won by even more, proportionally.

:31:19. > :31:27.Northern Ireland, again, Remain more or less. But these are the regions.

:31:28. > :31:30.The South West, you can see, South Northwest, Yorkshire and the Humber,

:31:31. > :31:40.Northeast, West Midlands, East of England and Wales, East Midlands,

:31:41. > :31:43.all going for a Leave. That is a portrait of a divided country on

:31:44. > :31:46.this one issue, almost the most traumatic portrait you could have

:31:47. > :31:50.what is going on tonight, and if Remain do win, it will be Scotland

:31:51. > :31:54.and London that keep the UK in the EU, but it looks at the moment as

:31:55. > :31:59.though the drifters towards blue. What have we got so far? So many

:32:00. > :32:04.more votes to count, always worth emphasising. Let major shoyu if I

:32:05. > :32:09.can, we will go back to our index for a second, and I will bring on

:32:10. > :32:12.the votes we have got so far. Let's bring the camera out of the ceiling,

:32:13. > :32:17.that is all the counting that still has to be done, but you can see 6.4

:32:18. > :32:25.million leave, 6.1 million Remain, bring it back down and it is so, so

:32:26. > :32:27.poised. I guess if you are watching at home on TV, you are not going to

:32:28. > :32:38.go to bed any time soon. We have turned Broadcasting House

:32:39. > :32:42.into the likes of Times Square. We have the figures showing how things

:32:43. > :32:50.stand at the moment. Running through the night. And it is showing 51.3%

:32:51. > :32:54.for Leave. 48.7% for Remain at the moment. Still we are saying it is

:32:55. > :32:58.too early to call, which is obvious from what we have been say, there is

:32:59. > :33:02.no point in calling it until it is safe to call. So those are the

:33:03. > :33:07.figures, and it is time for a round up of the news. So, once again, here

:33:08. > :33:11.we are. The results emerging from the UK's

:33:12. > :33:15.referendum on the EU so far show a very close contest

:33:16. > :33:18.between the Leave and Remain votes. Leave is consistently doing better

:33:19. > :33:20.than predicted in vast Remain is performing better

:33:21. > :33:23.in London and Scotland, suggesting potentially a very

:33:24. > :33:25.divided UK once all A final result will not be known

:33:26. > :33:31.for some hours. Here's our political correspondent

:33:32. > :33:33.Eleanor Garnier and her report It was the moment

:33:34. > :33:38.polling stations closed. And the first result to declare,

:33:39. > :33:46.Gibraltar, with a decisive 96% vote Not long after, a flurry

:33:47. > :33:51.of good results for Leave In Newcastle, Remain only

:33:52. > :33:57.managed a narrow win. A much smaller victory

:33:58. > :34:06.than expected. And in Sunderland, Leave had

:34:07. > :34:10.a huge win, with 61%. Away from the north of England,

:34:11. > :34:14.in Basildon, in Essex, And another count with a big turn

:34:15. > :34:24.out, at 74%. But there was good news for Remain

:34:25. > :34:28.in the London borough of Lambeth, with 79%, a much better

:34:29. > :34:33.result than expected. Though overall, it is looking

:34:34. > :34:37.very tight indeed. I think it is going to be extremely

:34:38. > :34:40.close, and there is a disaffected vote, and it is disaffected

:34:41. > :34:42.with politics overall, disaffected with Westminster

:34:43. > :34:45.politics in particular. Some of that are Labour supporters

:34:46. > :34:49.too, and we have done our best to try and turn that around,

:34:50. > :34:52.but it has been tough. At a Leave campaign party in London

:34:53. > :34:55.earlier in the night, Win or lose this battle tonight

:34:56. > :35:02.we will win this war, we will get our country back,

:35:03. > :35:05.we will get our independence back It is looking increasingly

:35:06. > :35:12.like turnout will be above 70% for the first time in a UK-wide

:35:13. > :35:15.contest since 1997. As results continue to come in,

:35:16. > :35:17.remember the referendum isn't decided count

:35:18. > :35:35.by count, but vote by vote. Early results have upset

:35:36. > :35:37.the world's financial markets. The pound initially soared

:35:38. > :35:38.as polls closed. But then it suffered its third

:35:39. > :35:41.largest fall on record, plummeting from about $1.50

:35:42. > :35:43.to almost $1.40, as results began to show stronger-than-expected

:35:44. > :35:45.support for leaving the EU. More recently, the pound has

:35:46. > :35:47.recovered, but the markets The Italian coastguard says it

:35:48. > :35:56.rescued around 4,500 migrants Good weather and calm seas have led

:35:57. > :36:01.to more people risking The charity MSF has been helping

:36:02. > :36:08.the rescue operation. A woman's body was recovered

:36:09. > :36:11.from one of the vessels President Obama has suffered

:36:12. > :36:16.a setback in his plan to spare millions of people living illegally

:36:17. > :36:20.in the US from deportation. The Supreme Court has

:36:21. > :36:22.blocked the reforms, with the opinion of eight

:36:23. > :36:24.justices split equally. Mr Obama called the ruling

:36:25. > :36:34.heartbreaking. A man has been jailed for life

:36:35. > :36:36.for plotting a beheading on the streets of London,

:36:37. > :36:38.inspired by so-called Islamic State, which could have

:36:39. > :36:40.targeted a poppy seller. 23-year-old Nadir Syed

:36:41. > :36:42.was arrested in November 2014, One of the world's longest running

:36:43. > :36:48.civil wars, in Colombia, has been brought to an end

:36:49. > :36:50.after more than 50 The so-called FARC rebels have

:36:51. > :36:54.signed a deal to lay down their arms following three

:36:55. > :36:58.years of negotiations. More than 200,000 people were killed

:36:59. > :37:30.during the conflict. The #ru89 from Edinburgh v 64494

:37:31. > :37:35.Leave. 26% to 74%. That is a largest part of Scotland apart from Glasgow.

:37:36. > :37:38.The largest number of voters. And a lot of people incidentally

:37:39. > :37:43.with degrees. I don't know whether you agree with this thing, because

:37:44. > :37:50.you are a reasonably well educated fellow but they are been saying all

:37:51. > :37:55.along the educated people vote to Remain and those who don't have

:37:56. > :37:59.qualifications vote to Leave. Insulting isn't it. I don't think

:38:00. > :38:03.so. People do the surveys and come to the conclusion, and clearly they

:38:04. > :38:07.have come to the conclusion people with degrees have not been backing

:38:08. > :38:12.Brexit. You are the exception to the rule. I am. I think it is

:38:13. > :38:15.interesting. This has been basically an insurgent campaign, it has been a

:38:16. > :38:21.campaign against the establishment and I think this is important,

:38:22. > :38:25.because there is a feeling that the rulers of the country have got out

:38:26. > :38:28.of touch with those who elect them and this applies across Europe and

:38:29. > :38:31.Europe is at the heart of this, because there are so many things

:38:32. > :38:36.that British politicians can no longer do, because the laws are made

:38:37. > :38:39.in Brussels, and we carry the can for this, because when voters are

:38:40. > :38:45.concerned, we can't change it, and so I think that disconnect between

:38:46. > :38:49.the elect and the elect fors has widened, electors and this is a kick

:38:50. > :38:52.back against it and that is why, I think people furthest from the

:38:53. > :38:57.establishment, have been the most likely to vote Leave, and I say this

:38:58. > :39:02.without beginning to deny that I am a cop ever bottomed member of the

:39:03. > :39:06.establishment. I happen to agree with the anti-establishment tribe on

:39:07. > :39:11.this. If it is very close, either way, is it going to lead to a great

:39:12. > :39:17.sense of disaffection by the losing side, because they have been asked

:39:18. > :39:22.to make a choice, what do you think? The people who have lost out, one

:39:23. > :39:25.way or or the other, will they be difficult to satisfy, difficult to

:39:26. > :39:29.please? They are going to find something they obviously believe in

:39:30. > :39:33.just taken away like that. Which ever way it goes there will be a

:39:34. > :39:37.great deal of disappointment and sorrow on the part of the losing

:39:38. > :39:41.side. One of the challenges that society will face, politics will

:39:42. > :39:48.face, is how do you try and heal the divisions that have been created by

:39:49. > :39:54.what has been a lively and at times a feisty debate, and I fear that if

:39:55. > :39:58.there is further disappointment, on the part of those who thought they

:39:59. > :40:04.were voting to get something and it doesn't appear that it will be more

:40:05. > :40:10.difficult to manage. We have fro try and address the root cause. The

:40:11. > :40:16.Brexiters? For example if Leave were to win. Then if you look at

:40:17. > :40:20.migration, a lot of the Leave campaigners say there will continue

:40:21. > :40:24.to be a need for might integration, skills and the economic contribution

:40:25. > :40:28.they make, but the real task will be to try and heal the divisions this

:40:29. > :40:32.referendum has created, and that is a responsibility on all of us to

:40:33. > :40:37.make that happen, and to reflect each in our own party about what it

:40:38. > :40:41.is we now need to do, to play our part in ensuring that. The Leave

:40:42. > :40:43.side never put any number on its control of immigration, did it,

:40:44. > :40:48.unlike the Prime Minister incidentally who did and your party

:40:49. > :40:53.o who did put, the Leave campaign never said, never gave a figure at

:40:54. > :40:57.all, it just said... It is a referendum not a general election,

:40:58. > :41:03.and the Leave campaign could only put forward broad outlines of what

:41:04. > :41:08.it thought ought to be done. . Co-on it took VAT off fuel. A mandate

:41:09. > :41:12.coming from the British people, in a general election you can set out

:41:13. > :41:16.policies on every last detail. If you win you have a duty to implement

:41:17. > :41:22.them because you have a majority, you can pass the legislation n a

:41:23. > :41:25.referendum you can't put forward a detailed manifesto, with any

:41:26. > :41:29.realistic prospect so yes, suggestions were made we could take

:41:30. > :41:32.VAT off fuel, but as the Leave campaign will not be the Government,

:41:33. > :41:36.even if we win this vote, it is going to be up to the Government to

:41:37. > :41:42.look at the mandate that it has been given 6789 Should Cameron go for a

:41:43. > :41:46.new, an election and go for a new mandate, briefly, because we have

:41:47. > :41:51.to... I wouldn't rule out a new election all together. In this

:41:52. > :41:55.autumn? It is complicated under fixed term Parliament Act. You could

:41:56. > :42:01.change the act. There are ways round it or you could change the act. A

:42:02. > :42:04.new election is not impossible. We are going to rejoin our bring

:42:05. > :42:07.Scotland back to join us and Wales to join us who have been briefly

:42:08. > :42:20.away looking at their own events, here we are.

:42:21. > :42:32.So we have had 200 out of 382 in. We have just had Edinburgh, County

:42:33. > :42:41.Durham. 153,000 Leave, 100,000 Remain. Can we see the two. 58%

:42:42. > :42:45.Leave 42% Remain. And Jacob Rees-Mogg says he doesn't rule out

:42:46. > :42:48.an early election. In order to get a mandate to get things moving again.

:42:49. > :42:53.There will be a lot of policy changes that need to come about if

:42:54. > :42:57.we leave the European Union, that inevitably areas controlled by the

:42:58. > :43:01.European Union will be controlled by us and a matter for natural

:43:02. > :43:06.political debate. I don't think it is impossible, it really depends on

:43:07. > :43:10.what the response is in Parliament and by the Government to this.

:43:11. > :43:14.Hissingry Ben do you expect an election? That depends on the result

:43:15. > :43:17.of the referendum and who is Prime Minister once we know what the

:43:18. > :43:21.result is. -- hilly Ben. It would be in the hands of the Government if

:43:22. > :43:25.they decided they wanted to do one. The public might say we had an

:43:26. > :43:29.election not all that long ago, why are we having another one? We have

:43:30. > :43:33.made a decision about Europe in the referendum, it is Government's job

:43:34. > :43:36.to get on and govern and our job to hold the Government to account. You

:43:37. > :43:40.said David Cameron would be almost straight out on his ear if he lost

:43:41. > :43:44.the referendum. That for voters... But they may or may not result in a

:43:45. > :43:47.general election. If he did leave as Prime Minister, well it would result

:43:48. > :43:52.in a new Prime Minister arriving but that is a problem for the

:43:53. > :43:56.Conservative Party not for me. John Curtice are ahead by nearly 500,000.

:43:57. > :44:00.Is that significant. It is a lead of 500,000. Statistically from your

:44:01. > :44:06.point of view would you expect that to fall or grow? I think the truth

:44:07. > :44:11.is, the crucial thing this that I am looking at, is there ares of places

:44:12. > :44:15.where the Remain side are doing better than we expect according to

:44:16. > :44:20.the index. But for every one of those that I can see, I have got

:44:21. > :44:25.between two and three places where the Leave side are doing better than

:44:26. > :44:30.we expect. So you can see the balance is one, it doesn't look like

:44:31. > :44:36.anything other than a close result, but certainly that tally that says

:44:37. > :44:41.that Leave are ahead is a tally isn't, is telling you something, is

:44:42. > :44:47.it Leave do seem to be ahead, and that at the moment, at least, it is

:44:48. > :44:50.by no means definite they are the favourites to be ahead at the end of

:44:51. > :44:54.the night. That is something you should look at because that, it

:44:55. > :44:59.seems to be the direction, in which we are heading, unless the second

:45:00. > :45:04.half of this referendum night is very different from the first half.?

:45:05. > :45:08.You are being very cautious John. David, we don't wish people to get

:45:09. > :45:12.the wrong impression, and the truth is there is more than half the votes

:45:13. > :45:16.to come in. A lot of the local authorities to come in early on are

:45:17. > :45:21.the smaller local authorities but again, if I were on the Remain side

:45:22. > :45:25.I would be worrying about the fact they have lost in Sheffield,

:45:26. > :45:29.Coventry, Wolverhampton, relatively large local authorities are going

:45:30. > :45:33.towards Leave, so we certainly can't say that it is going to be Leave

:45:34. > :45:37.because we are look at a narrow referendum, but just to reiterate it

:45:38. > :45:41.looks as though the Leave side are favourite, and that the conversation

:45:42. > :45:45.you have been having with your two politicians about what would happen

:45:46. > :45:48.in the event of a Leave vote, shall we say I think is no longer a purely

:45:49. > :46:01.academic one. James Landale is at the Remain

:46:02. > :46:14.headquarters. Are you the right? I think you are not attached.

:46:15. > :46:23.Nic Watt, you are connected, you are from the Leave campaign. They seem

:46:24. > :46:27.pretty confident there. Do you think what John Curtice was saying, still

:46:28. > :46:34.too early to call and all that? Do they believe that, or do they

:46:35. > :46:38.believe they have won? I think it is fair to say a lot of drinkers been

:46:39. > :46:44.taken, they are very, very confident. I was talking to a senior

:46:45. > :46:48.Ukip figure and they looked almost shell-shocked and said, what have we

:46:49. > :46:52.done, I think we may have pulled it off, because of course Nigel Farage

:46:53. > :46:55.was saying earlier on this evening that he didn't think he was doing

:46:56. > :46:59.it, but now they are saying they think they may have got them across

:47:00. > :47:11.the line. But of course they are not the official Leave campaign, that is

:47:12. > :47:15.Wrote Leave across the river, they are cautiously optimistic, and a

:47:16. > :47:22.source I have been talking to at Vote Leave say we think we can

:47:23. > :47:26.overcome them, we are smashing Remain everywhere else in the

:47:27. > :47:30.country. Vote Leave are not having a party this evening, they say they

:47:31. > :47:34.have more important things to spend their money, it is called getting

:47:35. > :47:38.the vote out, and there is the political decision which is Cabinet

:47:39. > :47:42.ministers at the top, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, they are at the

:47:43. > :47:47.moment at least supporting the Prime Minister, and the plan is we will

:47:48. > :47:49.not hear from Boris Johnson and Michael Gove until after the Prime

:47:50. > :47:54.Minister has given either his concession or his victory speech.

:47:55. > :48:03.But what I am hearing in Whitehall are very severe nerves. One senior

:48:04. > :48:08.source said, well, I won't repeat the words, and he said, this wasn't

:48:09. > :48:11.meant to happen. The pound has been going down, and this source said to

:48:12. > :48:18.me, if this carries on like this, everything will go through the floor

:48:19. > :48:23.in the morning. Thank you. Let's go back to James Landale at the Remain

:48:24. > :48:26.headquarters. We heard earlier that Cameron's staff had left, presumably

:48:27. > :48:33.to go to a conclave somewhere and decide what to do. Is that so, or is

:48:34. > :48:38.there a party atmosphere? At the beginning of the evening, this place

:48:39. > :48:43.was buzzing, full of Cabinet ministers and frontbenchers, former

:48:44. > :48:48.Liberal leaders, even Eddie Izzard in a rather fetching pink hat. They

:48:49. > :48:52.have all gone, this place has thinned out, I don't think you could

:48:53. > :48:56.describe this as buzzing. It is like that moment a drinks party would use

:48:57. > :48:59.of me luck up and realise that most people have gone and there is a real

:49:00. > :49:05.danger that you will be the last person left on the floor. If you

:49:06. > :49:09.talk to the strategist here, they say it is still doable, it is still

:49:10. > :49:15.possible, look to some of the results in London, Birmingham,

:49:16. > :49:20.Manchester. But they admit they have to win really, really big now. That

:49:21. > :49:24.might be just a little bit of Elizabeth, just a little bit of

:49:25. > :49:30.wishful thinking. But that is what they are thinking at the moment, a

:49:31. > :49:37.lot of long faces here. Thank you. Just a question. When Harold Wilson

:49:38. > :49:43.had this referendum in 75, he was quite careful not to be the sort of

:49:44. > :49:47.leader of let's stay, he signed a thing saying we want to stay in, but

:49:48. > :49:52.he didn't go around campaigning, he kept back from it so that if he

:49:53. > :49:57.lost, he could have carried on. Do you think David Cameron made a

:49:58. > :50:02.mistake by becoming so totally involved after his negotiation in

:50:03. > :50:13.Brussels in being cheerleader for the remain campaign, saying, you

:50:14. > :50:20.decide? Yes I think it would've been better if he had been more in his

:50:21. > :50:24.approach and risen above it because he could have had an easier job to

:50:25. > :50:27.unite his party again afterwards, but he was in a difficult position

:50:28. > :50:32.because he is the most popular figure on the Remain side, he has a

:50:33. > :50:35.lot of influence and he had taken the decision that we should have the

:50:36. > :50:40.referendum, so it wasn't an easy decision but it might have been

:50:41. > :50:44.better had he been more in partial. Let's go to our Asia correspondent

:50:45. > :50:48.in Singapore. I can't think what time it is in Singapore, but what

:50:49. > :50:56.has been the reaction of the markets? Across Asian markets, there

:50:57. > :50:59.is a real sense of anxiety. Just in the last few minutes, we have seen

:51:00. > :51:07.the pound fall to levels not seen since 2009 here. Traders on this for

:51:08. > :51:11.telling me that at 1.37, the pound last hit that level against the US

:51:12. > :51:19.dollar in March 2000 and nine. You are seeing that anxiety being felt

:51:20. > :51:22.across the Asian markets today. When results first started trickling in,

:51:23. > :51:27.traders said there was a sense of complacency, most of their clients

:51:28. > :51:29.in Asia had factored in a Remain vote, and that has changed

:51:30. > :51:35.dramatically in the last couple of hours as these results started to in

:51:36. > :51:43.one trader said this is the closest decision he has ever seen. And EU

:51:44. > :51:47.think this is a panic reaction as people in favour of leaving the EU

:51:48. > :51:50.have always said, and it will soon sort itself out, or is there a

:51:51. > :51:58.feeling that this is a serious downturn that will sustain itself? I

:51:59. > :52:02.think there is a degree of panic, and as I was saying earlier, that

:52:03. > :52:06.sense of complacency that the remain vote would emerge as the stronger

:52:07. > :52:10.vote today. It is still a long way to go until we get those results as

:52:11. > :52:14.you have been saying all morning on the channel, but certainly a sense

:52:15. > :52:18.of long-term impact is also being felt on trading floors across Asia

:52:19. > :52:21.today. I think there is a sense of anxiety in how this will all play

:52:22. > :52:26.out as the results come through later today. Thank you very much

:52:27. > :52:32.indeed. We join James Reynolds in Brussels. You were going to be at a

:52:33. > :52:43.pub, presumably meant to be celebrating Remain. The Funky

:52:44. > :52:48.Monkey, I was told. What has been the reaction so far? We are standing

:52:49. > :52:53.in the cold now, the Funky Monkey gave up hours ago! As you can

:52:54. > :52:57.probably notice, some of the lights on, that is a bit unusual past four

:52:58. > :53:02.o'clock in the morning, but I doubt that anybody in the building behind

:53:03. > :53:06.me has had any sleep. They will be incredibly nervous about what they

:53:07. > :53:17.are seeing, and if there is a Brexit result, we expect John Torode --

:53:18. > :53:22.Jean-Claude Juncker to come out later, and it will not be easy. The

:53:23. > :53:29.European Community was designed to go one way, to have more

:53:30. > :53:33.integration, more passengers, it wasn't designed to stop and let

:53:34. > :53:38.people off. People here are worried that if Britain goes, more countries

:53:39. > :53:41.may be tempted to hold votes of their own. So you don't think that

:53:42. > :53:47.that was just scared that X to get Britain to stay in the EU? You think

:53:48. > :53:55.they meant it when they said out is out and we will have no truck with

:53:56. > :53:59.you? Not just them, Francois Hollande said it as well, because

:54:00. > :54:02.all of these countries are worried about other countries such as

:54:03. > :54:06.France, Austria, Italy, Finland, Denmark, they don't want to give too

:54:07. > :54:12.good a deal to Britain for fear that others might want to do the same. So

:54:13. > :54:17.you expecting some statement rather early in the morning, later in the

:54:18. > :54:20.morning, I should say? Yes, we expect Martin Schulz, the president

:54:21. > :54:25.of the European Parliament, to speak first, and then a few hours later,

:54:26. > :54:29.we expect Mr Juncker and Donald Tusk to speak as well, perhaps later in

:54:30. > :54:33.the morning. Are you alarmed about what they might say, Jacob

:54:34. > :54:38.Rees-Mogg? I am not. I think there will be an initial period of

:54:39. > :54:45.bullying attempts to try to get us to change your minds. The EU is

:54:46. > :54:48.always reluctant to set accept referendums in anything that goes

:54:49. > :54:56.against their wishes, but they are our biggest customer. It is hugely

:54:57. > :54:59.in their interest to trade with us. If we had reciprocal tariffs against

:55:00. > :55:02.the European Union, the damage it would do to the German car industry,

:55:03. > :55:06.the Irish farming industry, would be enormous. It is not in their

:55:07. > :55:11.interests. So I think ultimately they will not do it. I might also

:55:12. > :55:15.add that if the European Union is the sort of club that if you want to

:55:16. > :55:19.leave it to get kneecap, it isn't a club you want to belong to in the

:55:20. > :55:27.first place, it is like the Mafia. Hilary, is that a sanguine view or

:55:28. > :55:31.is he optimistic? The problem with the leave argument is that if you

:55:32. > :55:34.walk away from the largest single market in the world, you create a

:55:35. > :55:38.great deal of uncertainty, and uncertainty is not good for the

:55:39. > :55:42.economy or the people's jobs. But we have yet to see what the result is.

:55:43. > :55:49.You don't think there will be punitive measures by the EU? It is

:55:50. > :55:54.very hard to see how they would give us a better deal or as good a deal

:55:55. > :55:59.if we were outside then they give themselves remaining in. And it is

:56:00. > :56:02.the uncertainty that is the problem. Business investment hate is one

:56:03. > :56:06.thing above are nothing else, and that is uncertainty, and if they

:56:07. > :56:10.think they are not sure what our trading relationships will be, they

:56:11. > :56:14.will invest elsewhere, and that is why we argued so passionately for

:56:15. > :56:19.Remain, and I still hope we might just get it, but it is really close.

:56:20. > :56:25.James, do you want to comment on that? They will be trying to count

:56:26. > :56:29.the votes themselves as well if they do get through to Remain. You can

:56:30. > :56:38.imagine the biggest egg sale of breath that could possibly move

:56:39. > :56:41.tides. -- exhale of breath. But at the moment they will be tiptoeing

:56:42. > :56:45.out hoping they don't step on the smithereens of the European project.

:56:46. > :56:49.There is an excellent report by the House of Lords European committee

:56:50. > :56:52.what happens if a country use under article 50, on the whole purpose of

:56:53. > :56:57.article 50 is to make sure that the departure causes the fewest shocks

:56:58. > :57:03.to the EU economy as well as to the departing country's economy. It is a

:57:04. > :57:06.balanced report written mainly by a pro-European committee, and it sets

:57:07. > :57:12.out the purpose of article 50 and how it would operate. And we will

:57:13. > :57:20.see how that transpires. Amelie. Lets talk to a couple of youngsters,

:57:21. > :57:26.generation 2016, Abbey and Darren. Abbey, you are representative of

:57:27. > :57:32.London, you are Remain, and you are County Durham and you have gone with

:57:33. > :57:34.Brexit. How engaged you feel your friends and colleagues and peers

:57:35. > :57:39.have been on this issue? Has there been energy around? There has

:57:40. > :57:44.definitely been a lot of energy around this particular issue. In

:57:45. > :57:48.general my friends, the people I normally associate with, they all

:57:49. > :57:53.have an understanding of politics, but I looked on my Facebook today,

:57:54. > :57:57.and every single post was about Brexit, people I went to school and

:57:58. > :58:00.university with, it is something people care about even if they don't

:58:01. > :58:05.fully understand. Have they all voted? I wouldn't say they have all

:58:06. > :58:12.voted, but they have all engaged in the debate. Is that the same view,

:58:13. > :58:16.Darren? Again, some haven't voted, and some feel this is their

:58:17. > :58:21.opportunity to actually make change. This is their chance to change

:58:22. > :58:28.things for our country. That whole idea, call your Gran whatever it

:58:29. > :58:32.was, did you talk to all the Lee Wallace is in your family and find

:58:33. > :58:37.out that there was a difference, or did you find that patronising? Yes,

:58:38. > :58:43.I did. I was raised to respect my elders, not talk down to them,

:58:44. > :58:47.insinuate that they are racist or xenophobic, which is what I think

:58:48. > :58:53.that campaign implied. Because it was all about young people being for

:58:54. > :58:56.Remain and old people being for Brexit. I think that is a bit

:58:57. > :59:02.extreme. There were surveys that were done, and it did show that

:59:03. > :59:05.young people are more in favour of Remain, but at the end of the day,

:59:06. > :59:13.we have to live with the consequences of the referendum

:59:14. > :59:16.longer than someone like your Gran, which is not to say their opinions

:59:17. > :59:22.don't matter, but we have to live with it for longer. Where did you

:59:23. > :59:25.get your opinions from? There has been so much opinion and

:59:26. > :59:31.campaigning, but was it all online for you, was it Twitter, was it in

:59:32. > :59:36.the pub? I don't study politics, so this was something I took upon

:59:37. > :59:41.myself. I realise that this was such a monumental referendum, this would

:59:42. > :59:47.change the direction our country goes in, so a lot of it yes, online.

:59:48. > :59:52.Researching and looking into how this would affect me personally and

:59:53. > :00:04.the country as a whole, and on the whole, deciding it is better to vote

:00:05. > :00:09.Leave. I'm a bit different in that I studied politics at university and I

:00:10. > :00:12.did and Erasmus in Berlin. So I have a lot of information in terms of

:00:13. > :00:17.theory, but what I found interesting was I learned a bit more about what

:00:18. > :00:21.people's feelings about the EU R versus what the facts are, and I

:00:22. > :00:25.think this is go to be a referendum that is won on perception rather

:00:26. > :00:29.than facts. Right, because there was a lot of talk about the tone of the

:00:30. > :00:32.campaign putting people off, but actually, you could argue that a

:00:33. > :00:36.really vicious, quite nasty campaign is something that you can't miss,

:00:37. > :00:43.and the turnout has been pretty high, hasn't it? It has, but... Do

:00:44. > :00:47.you think that is bad, a bad campaign, and energising campaign? I

:00:48. > :00:52.think any campaign that gives power to individuals, this is decided by

:00:53. > :00:56.the people for the people, it is a really powerful thing, and I think

:00:57. > :01:03.we should all be incredibly proud of our democracy for serving in action

:01:04. > :01:12.as it has. Did you feel alone for your age group as a Brexiteer, or is

:01:13. > :01:16.that MS? Certainly it was an uphill battle, but we had many young people

:01:17. > :01:19.realising this was a once in a generation chance to take back

:01:20. > :01:23.control and look forward to a brighter future. And you talked

:01:24. > :01:28.about the Rasmus scheme, very much part of what the EU does. If this is

:01:29. > :01:32.Brexit, then that sort of stuff is probably behind us?

:01:33. > :01:39.I have talked about my experience going on Erasmus but there is a

:01:40. > :01:43.wired debate, we do want to be seen as the kind of country that shies

:01:44. > :01:47.away from the decision making or do we want to be someone that takes

:01:48. > :01:49.part? We have to leave it now because we expect Nigel Farage.

:01:50. > :01:55.David. Thank you very much. So I think we

:01:56. > :02:02.are joined by Nigel Farage. I hope we are. He is speaking. Let us hear

:02:03. > :02:10.him. Ladies and gentlemen. Dare to dream. That the dawn is breaking on

:02:11. > :02:21.an independent United Kingdom. CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

:02:22. > :02:32.This if the predictions are right, this will be a victory for real

:02:33. > :02:43.people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people.

:02:44. > :02:47.We have fought, we have fought against the mull nationalings for we

:02:48. > :02:52.fought against the big merchant banks we fought against big

:02:53. > :02:58.politics, we fought against lie, corruption, and deceit and today,

:02:59. > :03:10.honesty, decency and belief in nation, I think now is going to win.

:03:11. > :03:16.CHEERING AND APPLAUSE And we will have done it, we will

:03:17. > :03:20.have done it without having to fight, without a single bullet being

:03:21. > :03:32.fired, we will have done it by damned hard work on the ground, like

:03:33. > :03:37.my friend Mr Banks here. And by people in the Labour Party, and the

:03:38. > :03:43.Conservative Party and Ukip and of no party, who have taken part in

:03:44. > :03:47.this campaign. And we will have done it not just for ourselves, we will

:03:48. > :03:53.have done it for the whole of Europe. I hope this victory brings

:03:54. > :03:59.down this failed project, and leads us to a Europe of sovereign nation

:04:00. > :04:03.state, trading together, being friends together, co-operating

:04:04. > :04:10.together, and let us get rid of the flag, the anthem, Brussels, and all

:04:11. > :04:20.that has gone wrong. CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

:04:21. > :04:26.Let's, let June 23rd go down in our history as our independence day.

:04:27. > :04:29.CHEERING AND APPLAUSE Interesting there, Nigel Farage in

:04:30. > :04:33.effect claiming victory for the campaign even though he wasn't part

:04:34. > :04:40.of the official campaign, we haven't heard from the leaders of that

:04:41. > :04:45.campaign, from Michael Gove, or Mr Grayling, it is Nigel Farage, he is

:04:46. > :04:51.taking command of the situation, and saying that victory is their, and

:04:52. > :04:59.all the rest of it. So, we join Justine green, do you hear Nigel

:05:00. > :05:03.Farage there? I did yes. Why are things not going so well for your

:05:04. > :05:08.party and for the Remain campaign? We are making no assumptions about

:05:09. > :05:14.who has won. Yes and obviously this is still way too close to call. It

:05:15. > :05:18.is comparatively early in terms of the results coming through, so I

:05:19. > :05:22.think Nigel Farage is really jumping the gun in what he has just said,

:05:23. > :05:25.but in the end, what we do know is this has been a very close fought

:05:26. > :05:31.campaign, and referendum, and it will have a very close result, and

:05:32. > :05:34.so, what we will need to do is knit our country back together and

:05:35. > :05:37.recognise that whoever wins tonight, which ever side, one in two people

:05:38. > :05:42.watching this programme right now will have voted for the side that

:05:43. > :05:47.didn't come out on top. It is really important whatever path our country

:05:48. > :05:52.take, first of all, that we respect the result of this referendum, this

:05:53. > :05:55.is respect for democracy, as well, and I am certainly committed to

:05:56. > :05:59.making whatever path we take work but it has to work for the whole of

:06:00. > :06:04.our country and it is way too early in the night to be calling it one

:06:05. > :06:08.way or another. What we know is it is incredibly tight, very close, a

:06:09. > :06:11.lot this is going to go down on turn out and clearly as we heard from the

:06:12. > :06:15.two fantastic young people interviewed earlier on, the

:06:16. > :06:18.engagement of young people in this referendum has been absolutely

:06:19. > :06:21.critical and we shouldn't forget in the end it is their future, that we

:06:22. > :06:28.are very much deciding to make. I have to say I think your optimism

:06:29. > :06:34.maybe ill founded but we will see in an hour or so's time but if your

:06:35. > :06:38.optimism is ill found and if it is a vote Leave that wins, what should

:06:39. > :06:44.happen? Well, again, we, I think it is way too early to call this

:06:45. > :06:49.referendum result, what I do know is that whatever the result, we have to

:06:50. > :06:56.respect it. Fine, you said that, all right. OK, let me try you on another

:06:57. > :07:00.one, why has it got so close? We had the referendum because this is a

:07:01. > :07:04.heated debate that many people round our country have had for many, many

:07:05. > :07:07.year, there would have been no point having a referendum on a op pick

:07:08. > :07:12.where people largely agreed. Everyone knows that this has been a

:07:13. > :07:16.debate that has very much divided public opinion and it was time to

:07:17. > :07:22.take this debate out of Westminster, away from MPs and give it to people

:07:23. > :07:27.in Britain, to decide. And we have had an historic referendum, we will

:07:28. > :07:31.have an historic result that will take our country down one path or

:07:32. > :07:34.another. Did you fight the campaign in the right way or was it too

:07:35. > :07:39.negative on your part, on the Conservative part on David Cameron's

:07:40. > :07:44.part? Negative campaign? Things like George Osborne's budget, threatening

:07:45. > :07:48.to put our income tax up by two pence in the pound, to remove

:07:49. > :07:52.pensioners triple lock on their pension, all those things? Do you

:07:53. > :07:57.think people just turned away from it because it was trying by fear, to

:07:58. > :08:01.force them to vote the way that David Cameron and you wanted them to

:08:02. > :08:05.vote? I think we did run a positive campaign, at the same time, though,

:08:06. > :08:11.it was important to talk to people about some of the clear risks, that

:08:12. > :08:14.Britain faces, with a decision of leaving the EU, whoever you are

:08:15. > :08:18.interviewing now, which ever side they have been campaigning on, I

:08:19. > :08:23.think you could ask them the same question and they would say the

:08:24. > :08:27.other side did Project Fear. It was a hard fought campaign, there were

:08:28. > :08:32.pros and cons of whatever choice people made, and I think both sides

:08:33. > :08:35.were keen to point those out. From my perspective, certainly within

:08:36. > :08:39.London we ran a positive campaign and I think that has been responded

:08:40. > :08:44.to very well by lots of young people and I met lots of people yesterday,

:08:45. > :08:48.out campaigning and they were voting for the first time. Aside from this

:08:49. > :08:53.result, I hope that one of the legacies of this referendum, will be

:08:54. > :08:58.a brand-new generation of young people who have become elect fors in

:08:59. > :09:03.our, in the election system we have here in the UK and I think will

:09:04. > :09:06.shout loudly and for their view four our country not just today but in

:09:07. > :09:12.coming elections. Thank you very much. Thank you for joining us at

:09:13. > :09:19.dawn, as dawn breaks over Westminster. Jeremy, shall we look

:09:20. > :09:23.at this, these key central 40 or so counts that are going to determine

:09:24. > :09:29.or will demonstrate which way this is going. In general elections we

:09:30. > :09:33.call them bell weather, can we find any bellwethering in this list of

:09:34. > :09:37.382 counting areas? About 24-hours ago a friend said is there any one

:09:38. > :09:42.moment I should stay up for that will tell me what the result is. I

:09:43. > :09:46.said try Durham. I am not suggesting that Durham give youts the result.

:09:47. > :09:53.Let us see why I chose that particular area. Here we have 382

:09:54. > :09:58.counting area, they are arranged by Euro-scepticism. The deal is this,

:09:59. > :10:04.if it is a 50-50 result, the ones in the middle we will call them the

:10:05. > :10:08.middle 40 would go 50-50 so would be evenly split. Once the result goes

:10:09. > :10:12.to one side or the other, to Remain or Leave. The middle 40 by

:10:13. > :10:16.definition start to shift. So let us have a look in close up at that

:10:17. > :10:20.middle 40 now, and see what it tells us. By the bay take a glance at the

:10:21. > :10:26.map. The random selection of places that we are looking at here, but

:10:27. > :10:30.that is in the nature of this. Here are the middle 40 for you. A glance

:10:31. > :10:35.will tell you that there is a bit more blue than yellow at the top of

:10:36. > :10:40.the bar, the colour that is in that has won the area is at the top of

:10:41. > :10:44.the bar, so blue for Leave at the top of more bars than yellow. Now, I

:10:45. > :10:49.mention Durham, why Durham? Durham is in here, let us see where it is.

:10:50. > :10:54.Trying to find it. Left hand. This way. So I mention Durham because a

:10:55. > :10:58.lot of voters in Durham. It is not just the city it is the County

:10:59. > :11:02.Council area. It is one of these 50-50 areas which, if there is a

:11:03. > :11:07.national swing one way or the other, it is going to paint this lot either

:11:08. > :11:13.blue or yellow. Durham did go blue. But let us be more scientific. Let

:11:14. > :11:18.us take the 40, the middle 40, the 50-50 counting areas and try and

:11:19. > :11:22.work out what percentage they are returning. We put them all together.

:11:23. > :11:28.Let us have a look here. So we bring on our graph. So the middle 40,

:11:29. > :11:32.those ones that would be 50-50 if the nation were to be evenly split

:11:33. > :11:41.have come in like this. Isn't this fascinating? Fascinating? 52% Leave.

:11:42. > :11:45.48% to Remain. The ones we have thought of of the bell weathers have

:11:46. > :11:49.come in with a 4% to Leave. There we have. I mention Durham at the start.

:11:50. > :11:56.I don't know if they will be borne out. Let us get these. Thank you

:11:57. > :12:00.very much. John. Come on then, mark our card. I think there have you

:12:01. > :12:06.have another indication of why we have been saying for a while that

:12:07. > :12:11.this referendum looks close, 52% is not a big victory for either side,

:12:12. > :12:16.but secondly, the balance of advantage in the results in so far,

:12:17. > :12:22.we have got, getting close to 60% of the votes in, it does appear to lie

:12:23. > :12:26.with the Leave side. If things carry on as they have been, for much

:12:27. > :12:30.longer, then I think the truth is it is go to be difficult to escape the

:12:31. > :12:35.conclusion that Leave have won. There is a lot to go, maybe there is

:12:36. > :12:40.a few tricks up there rater in the stage, but at the moment, later. At

:12:41. > :12:50.the moment Leave are undoubtedly the favourites and Jeremy's bell

:12:51. > :12:55.weathers shows you why. I am joined by Chuka Umunna and Steve Hilton,

:12:56. > :13:05.the former director of strategy. The former went in the place there. I'm

:13:06. > :13:09.the former. You were the Prime Minister's former direct terse of

:13:10. > :13:15.strategy. -- direct terse. It is very early. -- direct terse.

:13:16. > :13:21.Steve Hilton, where do you stand now, you had extraordinary role in

:13:22. > :13:25.this campaign, two things, you said, one is you said, if the Prime

:13:26. > :13:29.Minister were a Cabinet Minister not Prime Minister, I know he would have

:13:30. > :13:32.been for Leave any way, that is his whole instinct. The second thing you

:13:33. > :13:36.said when they started producing Government statistics showing how

:13:37. > :13:40.they would have to change taxation, oh these statistics they are made

:13:41. > :13:45.up, I know because I used to do that stuff. Is that true, did you mean

:13:46. > :13:51.that? I don't mean literally. You said it literally. I was referring

:13:52. > :13:55.to the way in which campaigns, including those I was involved in

:13:56. > :14:00.exaggerate to make their point, and a specific thing they do, which we

:14:01. > :14:04.saw in this campaign, is take a general argument, for example you

:14:05. > :14:08.will be worse off, and in order to make that point tangible, try and

:14:09. > :14:12.put a number on it, to specify, because that is a more memorable way

:14:13. > :14:18.of putting it. That is how weened up with the claim you would be ?4300

:14:19. > :14:23.worse off. Now, that, there is all sorts of bits of data you can put

:14:24. > :14:27.into such a calculation, but truly everyone involved knows that is not

:14:28. > :14:34.literally true. They don't really mean... ?4300. Do they mean they

:14:35. > :14:39.will be worse off? Yes. Do you believe that? I don't. You are not

:14:40. > :14:43.entirely on that side of the argument, Michael Gove talked about

:14:44. > :14:45.bumps along the road. People have talked about temporary upsets and

:14:46. > :14:49.that. You don't believe that will happen? I don't know, that is the

:14:50. > :14:55.fundamental point which is none of us really knows because the future

:14:56. > :15:00.is in the end unpredictable. The argument us I was making all along,

:15:01. > :15:05.the question today was what are the circumstances for running a country,

:15:06. > :15:10.that give you the best chance of helping people avoid bumps in the

:15:11. > :15:15.road, helping people to raise their living standards when we don't know

:15:16. > :15:20.what the future bling, my argument if we control the Leave, it is more

:15:21. > :15:28.likely we avoid the problems. And the litany of experts which was so

:15:29. > :15:32.much reviled by Michael Gove among others, the Bank of England, Mr

:15:33. > :15:39.Carney, the IFS, the treasury you concur with that, all these experts

:15:40. > :15:45.are just Blatterering away to no... What do they spend their days doing?

:15:46. > :15:51.They believe it. But in the and he is one view, people... Could get rid

:15:52. > :15:55.of them all. They do important jobs but people listen to that understand

:15:56. > :16:01.this was not about that. Understood it was not about that. It was more

:16:02. > :16:04.fundamental about how we run our country, that is what really

:16:05. > :16:09.happened in this campaign, that it shifted from some of those very

:16:10. > :16:13.specific thing, into a deeper, argument about the best way to give

:16:14. > :16:19.people a sense of control over the things that matter to them and they

:16:20. > :16:23.I think what has happened people have expressed real anger at the

:16:24. > :16:28.sense of being ignored by the system and a sense they aren't listened to

:16:29. > :16:30.and almost whoever they vote for nothing really changes and that I

:16:31. > :16:42.think was at the heart of this. Chuka Umunna, former Shadow Business

:16:43. > :16:47.Secretary, do you think the campaign was fought on a false prospectus? I

:16:48. > :16:51.don't think so, and I think one of the important qualifications to make

:16:52. > :16:56.to Steve's remarks of a fragmented nature of the result. It will not be

:16:57. > :17:00.an overwhelming victory for which ever side wins. I thought at the

:17:01. > :17:04.beginning of the campaign it would be a close result. And I agree with

:17:05. > :17:09.John that looking at the results have come in so far, it is not

:17:10. > :17:12.looking promising for Remain. Whatever the result, we have to

:17:13. > :17:20.respect it and listen and learn the lessons. Do we have to leave the EU?

:17:21. > :17:27.That may be what is about to happen, but let's not forget... That is what

:17:28. > :17:32.will happen, isn't it? Yes, if that is what the vote is. Even if it is

:17:33. > :17:35.by one vote? You have geographical variations in how people are voting,

:17:36. > :17:39.you have differentiation is according to social class, there is

:17:40. > :17:43.definitely the generational Jo Francis, and there may be a gender

:17:44. > :17:48.difference as well. -- a generational difference. That isn't

:17:49. > :17:52.just an issue for the Labour Party, it is an issue of every party, and

:17:53. > :17:58.that is why when Nigel Farage, and maybe he is being premature, but

:17:59. > :18:02.when he gets up and says this is a victory for decent, honest, real,

:18:03. > :18:06.ordinary people, that tends to suggest that all the people who are

:18:07. > :18:10.just voted for us to stay don't fit into that category. The challenge

:18:11. > :18:13.for us as policymakers and politicians is how do we need

:18:14. > :18:19.together our society after this division? There are divisions here

:18:20. > :18:29.for the Labour Party which I am happy to go into... Go on, then.

:18:30. > :18:34.There is no doubt that for part of the coalition that gets a Labour

:18:35. > :18:38.government elected, immigration trumped everything else in this

:18:39. > :18:41.debate. I don't think a lot of our supporters and voters, sovereignty

:18:42. > :18:45.was the overwhelming issue that immigration became, and why did it

:18:46. > :18:50.become such an overwhelming issue despite all of the warnings of the

:18:51. > :18:54.experts? Because a lot of people felt, you're saying this about the

:18:55. > :18:58.economy, but I don't feel I'm getting a lot from the economy at

:18:59. > :19:02.the moment. The overwhelming majority of the Parliamentary Labour

:19:03. > :19:06.Party by the way are alive to this, and the reason we as a party argued

:19:07. > :19:09.for us to stay in the European Union is we didn't think the way that you

:19:10. > :19:13.deal with the issues that migration poses on the other challenges we

:19:14. > :19:16.have, we didn't think the way you deal with that is by crashing the

:19:17. > :19:23.economy. Look at what has happened to the pound sterling. $1.35 to the

:19:24. > :19:28.pound, the lowest rate since 1985. Another observation is it will be

:19:29. > :19:32.interesting to see what happens to Ukip following what people think may

:19:33. > :19:35.be the result, because what you have kind of scene if you like as a

:19:36. > :19:40.takeover of the Conservative Party by Ukip. You have these big figures,

:19:41. > :19:43.Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith and others who have

:19:44. > :19:46.basically been parroting many of the same lines that Nigel Farage has

:19:47. > :19:50.been running with the last few years. What about Jeremy Corbyn?

:19:51. > :19:57.What about the Labour Party? Why did it fail to galvanise people to vote

:19:58. > :20:04.Remain's which is what the Labour Party's half-hearted policy was. The

:20:05. > :20:15.economy argument didn't work when people don't feel they have enough

:20:16. > :20:20.of a state stake. Then why use it? Could Labour have done better? We

:20:21. > :20:24.need a Labour Party that is true to our values on immigration. And we

:20:25. > :20:27.struggled. We got into an OK position for the general election

:20:28. > :20:32.but it wouldn't convince the public, and it was an accountant's answer to

:20:33. > :20:36.a problem that isn't just economic, it is also a cultural issue, and

:20:37. > :20:40.people were not clear enough about what the Labour Party's position

:20:41. > :20:44.was. We had polling evidence weeks ago where many of our voters didn't

:20:45. > :20:50.know what Labour's position was karma I would be disingenuous for me

:20:51. > :20:54.to say that that wasn't an issue and may have compromised the Remain

:20:55. > :20:58.vote. Let's just go to Emily and we will come back later on.

:20:59. > :21:06.I am going to talk to Will Straw, who is the campaign chief for

:21:07. > :21:14.Britain Stronger In Europe. Do you concede defeat in your camp? There

:21:15. > :21:19.is still about 40% of results to go, so we need to wait and see what the

:21:20. > :21:23.outcome of all of those are. But whatever the result was evening, it

:21:24. > :21:30.is clear that it is going to be very close. And it is also clear that we

:21:31. > :21:35.are in a very divided country. Effectively from the results we have

:21:36. > :21:40.seen this evening, big victories for Remain in London, parts of Scotland,

:21:41. > :21:44.other big cities, and big wins for Leave in many parts of England and

:21:45. > :21:48.Wales. So I think there is a real need, whatever the result, for both

:21:49. > :21:52.sides to accept it and to think about how we can come together as a

:21:53. > :22:00.country in what will I think be challenging times. Wales as a whole

:22:01. > :22:05.went Leave, and it sounds as if Birmingham is going Leave. Would you

:22:06. > :22:10.say the campaign has gone wrong? Let's see what the result is. I am

:22:11. > :22:15.proud of the campaign we ran, we had thousands of volunteers passionately

:22:16. > :22:19.believing in the case for remaining in the European Union, that case in

:22:20. > :22:24.their communities and trying to persuade people to get to the polls.

:22:25. > :22:28.So what didn't work, then? From what we know so far, if Wales is gone for

:22:29. > :22:33.Leave, you have lost a whole country in the UK. What didn't work for your

:22:34. > :22:36.campaign? Was there too much David Cameron, too much George Osborne, do

:22:37. > :22:41.you wish you had done it differently? That wait and see what

:22:42. > :22:44.the final result is, but given how narrow it is, this is definitely a

:22:45. > :22:50.wake-up call for political and economic elites. The arguments that

:22:51. > :22:54.have been made about the benefits of being in the European Union and the

:22:55. > :22:58.risks of leaving clearly haven't worked as well as we would have

:22:59. > :23:05.liked, otherwise we would be several points ahead. But I think we will

:23:06. > :23:09.find out in the days and weeks ahead if indeed we have voted to leave

:23:10. > :23:15.whether those warnings were true or not. It is funny to talk about a

:23:16. > :23:24.wake-up call at this point. You have already seen Ukip doing well from

:23:25. > :23:27.2013 onwards. Why is Labour still talking about a wake-up call when

:23:28. > :23:31.your voters have told you what they feel on issues like immigration? I

:23:32. > :23:34.think the truth is that in different parts of the country, people have

:23:35. > :23:38.different issues that they care about, and what we tried to do in

:23:39. > :23:42.this campaign was to set out the benefits of people, economically,

:23:43. > :23:45.for Britain's race in the world for remaining in the European Union and

:23:46. > :23:50.the risks if they would be lost. We tried to confront the Leave campaign

:23:51. > :23:52.on what we thought were the misinformation that they were

:23:53. > :23:58.spreading on immigration in particular. I thought that was done

:23:59. > :24:03.very well at the BBC debate at Wembley earlier this week. But as I

:24:04. > :24:08.say, it is still very close, there are more results to come, but the

:24:09. > :24:12.country is divided and this is a very close result, so there is

:24:13. > :24:18.clearly going to be a lot of reflection and all sides of politics

:24:19. > :24:21.will have to look at that when the dust settles tomorrow. If it does

:24:22. > :24:25.come down to a percentage point or two, do you see any possibility of a

:24:26. > :24:32.second referendum? Is that something you would push for, or would you

:24:33. > :24:37.accept a result the Leave? I think whatever the result, we have to

:24:38. > :24:40.accept that. This has been a democratic process with high

:24:41. > :24:45.turnout, and it is important that the decision is respected. But in a

:24:46. > :24:51.referendum like this, the consequences of people's decisions

:24:52. > :24:54.are also there is, and we will see in the days and weeks ahead

:24:55. > :24:59.depending on what the outcome is whether those warnings from economic

:25:00. > :25:04.experts do come to pass, and I think it is striking that already the

:25:05. > :25:10.pound has plummeted to $1.35, I think Chuka Umunna was saying the

:25:11. > :25:14.furthest it has dropped since the 1980s, so there is clearly going to

:25:15. > :25:19.be a huge amount to an pack, but there are still a number of results

:25:20. > :25:24.still to come in. Chuka Umunna said we have to be true to our Labour

:25:25. > :25:27.values on immigration, and many of your supporters would not know what

:25:28. > :25:33.that means. What a true Labour values on immigration? What we have

:25:34. > :25:36.tried to do in this campaign, we're talking about immigration, is to

:25:37. > :25:41.recognise this is a big issue for people up and the country. That I

:25:42. > :25:45.think is very clear, but there are also a lot of positives that we get

:25:46. > :25:48.from having people come to this country from the EU and all swear,

:25:49. > :25:52.the benefits it brings to the National Health Service, and indeed

:25:53. > :25:56.if we do decide to leave the EU, there will be consequences for

:25:57. > :26:01.British people, and if we have voted to leave, we will find out what

:26:02. > :26:06.those might be. It is now for the political parties to think about

:26:07. > :26:10.whether there are different policies they want to propose on immigration,

:26:11. > :26:15.but I think again, if we have voted to leave, what we will spend our

:26:16. > :26:19.time doing over the next several years is working out how we on pick

:26:20. > :26:23.our relationship with the EU, this isn't going to be something that

:26:24. > :26:25.happens overnight. We know that there is this article 50 process

:26:26. > :26:29.that would have to be triggered, then we would need to negotiate our

:26:30. > :26:33.trading relationships with other countries around the world, so I

:26:34. > :26:39.think the main preoccupation is going to be trying to work out if

:26:40. > :26:43.there has been a Leave vote this evening why that was the eventuality

:26:44. > :26:47.that lace, and then really understanding what is go to happen

:26:48. > :26:51.to our position in the world and our economy over the knot just days but

:26:52. > :26:56.he is ahead. Will Straw, thank you very much.

:26:57. > :27:02.Martyn Oates joins us from pool in the West Country, Dorset. What is

:27:03. > :27:06.the position in the south-west? Has that been a disappointment to the

:27:07. > :27:10.remain campaign, or pretty much all the lines they were expecting?

:27:11. > :27:14.Pretty much as expected. If you look at Exeter which was respect to

:27:15. > :27:19.devote Remain, they have done better than expected. Exeter is by no means

:27:20. > :27:25.typical of the south-west, it remains a monument to new Labour,

:27:26. > :27:35.Ben Bradshaw troubled his majority at the last election. And Bristol

:27:36. > :27:43.and Bath are there, as well. Indeed, and those week speced it'd be Remain

:27:44. > :27:48.strongholds. South hams was the bellwether seat, we were hearing

:27:49. > :27:50.about that early on. Remain did slightly better-than-expected there,

:27:51. > :27:57.and an interesting background with Sarah Wollaston having declared from

:27:58. > :28:01.Brexit originally to the surprise of some of her colleagues, and then her

:28:02. > :28:09.sudden change of heart just before the election. The whole of South

:28:10. > :28:19.hams was affected by Sarah Wollaston? I don't think so, there

:28:20. > :28:23.is Brixham, a fishing port, and Totnes, which has a different

:28:24. > :28:27.profile, affluent, educated. We have been hearing about these potential

:28:28. > :28:32.differences in demographics. And what else have we got to come from

:28:33. > :28:38.the south-west? Are we there now, is it home and dry? We are waiting for

:28:39. > :28:42.Cornwall, which will be an interesting one, a lot of interest

:28:43. > :28:46.in Cornwall nationally throughout the campaign, because Cornwall has

:28:47. > :28:49.received hundreds of millions of pounds of European aid, there is

:28:50. > :28:55.nowhere in England which has received that level of funding.

:28:56. > :28:58.There has always been this sense but nonetheless Corboz very Eurosceptic.

:28:59. > :29:07.We should know very shortly whether that is true or not. Mainly because

:29:08. > :29:12.of fishing? Give us back our fish? Fishing is clearly a very emotive

:29:13. > :29:14.issue, but on the other hand, if you look at the rest of the profile of

:29:15. > :29:19.the south-west, Cornwall has a strong sense of independence, as I

:29:20. > :29:26.think most people know, but in many ways, in terms of its euro

:29:27. > :29:30.scepticism, the senses it shares that with the rest of the region,

:29:31. > :29:34.and it probably won't be that surprising if it is finally

:29:35. > :29:37.confirmed. But it will mean that people like me can finally answer

:29:38. > :29:41.this question definitively, because there has a wisp in this sense that

:29:42. > :29:46.it is Eurosceptic, but never any solid proof. Thank you very much.

:29:47. > :29:59.The turnout in the United Kingdom as whole is 72%, the highest turnout in

:30:00. > :30:03.a nationwide ballot since 1992. 72% is not wildly above what we get in

:30:04. > :30:11.general elections. Some places it is up to 80. Which is exceptional, but

:30:12. > :30:14.higher than where people expected. There was even concern in

:30:15. > :30:26.Westminster a few months ago about how much it would catch fire at all.

:30:27. > :30:30.If you look at the AV referendum, that only had the turnout of a local

:30:31. > :30:34.election, and people were hoping that this would achieve the same

:30:35. > :30:38.results as a general election, but given how divided the country seems

:30:39. > :30:41.to be, the fact that there is high turnout has to be a good thing,

:30:42. > :30:47.people will have to accept this and move on. Nigel Burns, you are

:30:48. > :30:52.looking lonely in Birmingham now. As everybody abandoned due? All of the

:30:53. > :30:57.drama is down in front of the stage, because clearly the result here in

:30:58. > :31:04.Birmingham is imminent, and it has all the makings of an absolute knife

:31:05. > :31:08.edge, one that Vote Leave supporters are hoping to raise their placards,

:31:09. > :31:11.but the Remain as maybe haven't given up the ghost, but the

:31:12. > :31:15.significant thing about this is it is exactly the sort of place that

:31:16. > :31:18.the Remain campaign have been pinning their hopes on, but the

:31:19. > :31:23.second part of the night will be better than the first part has been.

:31:24. > :31:28.This single biggest local area count anywhere in mainland Britain,

:31:29. > :31:33.700,000 voters in the city of Birmingham, and the very fact that

:31:34. > :31:36.this is such a close run thing speaks volumes, because at the

:31:37. > :31:41.beginning of the evening, there was a general expectation that there

:31:42. > :31:44.would be a very comfortable victory for the Remain campaign, I was

:31:45. > :31:50.talking to a Labour MEP who was very jaunty and the mystic about it. And

:31:51. > :31:57.then a little later, she, without me even asking, told me that her

:31:58. > :32:01.earlier optimism had evaporated. Another local MP said that whatever

:32:02. > :32:07.the outcome of this in the end, it has exposed the tensions between one

:32:08. > :32:09.region and another, the tensions within the United Kingdom, and there

:32:10. > :32:18.would a sense of real resentment come what may either way, given the

:32:19. > :32:23.outcome. Clearly this result in Birmingham is coming up any moment

:32:24. > :32:25.now. One thing I can absolutely assure you, it is going to be very,

:32:26. > :32:35.very close, David. We will come back to you. Patrick

:32:36. > :32:41.Byrne said there is a feeling of resentment on one side or the other.

:32:42. > :32:46.Do you think that is true? I think it is important to avoid it. In that

:32:47. > :32:51.sense, I was disappointed with what we heard from Nigel Farage. It felt

:32:52. > :32:56.to me that not just the timing of that was wrong, because it is too

:32:57. > :33:04.early to be so clear about things, but more importantly, the tone of

:33:05. > :33:08.it. Are you surprised? Well, I am very excited by what has happened.

:33:09. > :33:12.This is a great move forward for the country and will have a big impact

:33:13. > :33:16.around the world in a positive direction in terms of people feeling

:33:17. > :33:22.that they can assert their sovereignty. But it is also a

:33:23. > :33:28.serious moment. It is not a time for shouting. It is important to

:33:29. > :33:38.recognise that this is a big decision. Do you think your friend,

:33:39. > :33:40.or former friend, David Cameron, can remain Prime Minister and carry

:33:41. > :33:47.through the consequences of this vote? Go back to Europe and

:33:48. > :33:56.negotiate? I do. It is a humiliation for him. He takes very seriously his

:33:57. > :34:03.duty as Prime Minister to be a steward of the nation's affairs.

:34:04. > :34:06.This will be a big moment, exactly the kind of thing where he will want

:34:07. > :34:11.to make sure the country is in safe hands. Although he has lost this

:34:12. > :34:17.argument, it looks like, although it is a little early to be certain, he

:34:18. > :34:25.was saying not long ago that we can prosper outside the EU. He is the

:34:26. > :34:29.best person to lead us in a difficult process. But he will not

:34:30. > :34:32.know what direction to go in, because his whole argument has been

:34:33. > :34:38.about the necessity of staying in the EU. He cannot then go on about

:34:39. > :34:42.leaving the EU. But the argument is over because we had the vote today.

:34:43. > :34:54.It is no longer about whether, it will be about how. If he will be in

:34:55. > :34:58.the best position to do that. Surely the timetable of his time in office

:34:59. > :35:01.will be shortened. Ministers are split on whether he should go

:35:02. > :35:07.immediately, but everybody agrees that his timetable is shortened now.

:35:08. > :35:14.I don't understand why. He was elected last year for a full term.

:35:15. > :35:19.There are conditions, but he should serve that time. We have to pause,

:35:20. > :35:20.because it is time for an update of the news. Let's join Reeta

:35:21. > :35:24.Chakrabarti. With more than half the votes

:35:25. > :35:27.counted in the UK's referendum on the EU, it's looking increasingly

:35:28. > :35:30.possible that the Leave camp has The overall result is still too

:35:31. > :35:35.close to call, but Leave has better than expected results in vast areas

:35:36. > :35:37.of the country. Remain has had good results

:35:38. > :35:39.in London, Scotland Here's our political

:35:40. > :35:43.correspondent Eleanor Garnier, and her report contains some flash

:35:44. > :35:56.photography. Moments after polls closed and in

:35:57. > :36:00.Sunderland, the race to be the traditional first complete back out.

:36:01. > :36:07.It wasn't long before Leave a huge win here, with 61%. Across the

:36:08. > :36:13.north-east, results soon showed Leave doing consistently better than

:36:14. > :36:20.predicted. A big win in Hartlepool, and pushing Remain into a narrow

:36:21. > :36:27.victory in Newcastle. A much smaller win than expected. Away from the

:36:28. > :36:33.north of England in Basildon in Essex, another big win for Leave.

:36:34. > :36:39.And another account with a big turnout at 74%. And in Flintshire,

:36:40. > :36:43.just as across much of Wales, voters are backing Brexit. But in

:36:44. > :36:50.Edinburgh, the Remain campaign secured a big win. And there was

:36:51. > :36:56.good news for Remain in the London borough of Lambeth, with 79%, a much

:36:57. > :37:01.better result than expected. By 2am, the result was still looking very

:37:02. > :37:06.tight indeed. It's going to be extremely close. There was a

:37:07. > :37:13.disaffected vote. It is disaffected with politics overall. Some of that

:37:14. > :37:18.is Labour supporters too, and we have tried to turn that around, but

:37:19. > :37:22.it has been tough. But as more results came in, the Ukip leader

:37:23. > :37:29.started to smell victory. If the predictions now are right, this will

:37:30. > :37:36.be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a

:37:37. > :37:40.victory for decent people. It's becoming increasingly clear that

:37:41. > :37:45.there is a north-south split in England, with Remain doing better

:37:46. > :37:48.than expected in London, fulfilling expectations across the South East

:37:49. > :37:52.and West, but doing far worse in the north and across the Midlands.

:37:53. > :37:56.Early results have upset the world's financial markets,

:37:57. > :37:59.with the pound falling again in the past hour to $1.34,

:38:00. > :38:04.When the polls closed, it soared to $1.50,

:38:05. > :38:09.a stronger-than-expected support for leaving the EU,

:38:10. > :38:15.The Italian coastguard says it rescued around 4,500 migrants

:38:16. > :38:20.Good weather and calm seas have led to more people risking

:38:21. > :38:27.The charity MSF has been helping the rescue operation.

:38:28. > :38:29.A woman's body was recovered from one of the vessels

:38:30. > :38:35.Rescue workers in the eastern Chinese city of Yancheng

:38:36. > :38:38.are searching for survivors of a tornado and heavy hailstorm.

:38:39. > :38:42.The state broadcaster says 98 people have been killed

:38:43. > :38:49.A man has been jailed for life for plotting a beheading

:38:50. > :38:51.on the streets of London, inspired by so-called

:38:52. > :38:55.Islamic State, which could have targeted a poppy seller.

:38:56. > :38:57.23-year-old Nadir Syed was arrested in November 2014,

:38:58. > :39:04.One of the world's longest running civil wars, in Colombia,

:39:05. > :39:06.has been brought to an end after more than 50

:39:07. > :39:10.The so-called FARC rebels have signed a deal to lay

:39:11. > :39:12.down their arms following three years of negotiations.

:39:13. > :39:16.More than 200,000 people were killed during the conflict.

:39:17. > :39:34.Well, we can now say the decision taken in 1975 by this country to

:39:35. > :39:42.join the Common Market has been reversed by this referendum to leave

:39:43. > :39:46.the EU. Where are absolutely clear now that there is no way the Remain

:39:47. > :39:52.side can win. It looks as though the gap will be something like 52-48, so

:39:53. > :40:00.a four point lead for leaving the EU. That is the result of this

:40:01. > :40:06.referendum, which has been preceded by months of argument. The British

:40:07. > :40:14.people have spoken and answer is, we are out. Laura. Well, so where that

:40:15. > :40:17.we as individuals get to take a decision as big as this. This was

:40:18. > :40:22.the most profound question we had been asked for decades as a nation

:40:23. > :40:28.of voters, and we have answered it with a vote against the status quo,

:40:29. > :40:32.against political expectation, against the traditional political

:40:33. > :40:37.rules that in Britain, voters tend to go with what they are told of

:40:38. > :40:41.their economic self-interest. Instead, people have decided to defy

:40:42. > :40:47.the expectations of Westminster, defy all the advice from experts,

:40:48. > :40:51.big business and the like can vote to leave the European Union. This is

:40:52. > :40:56.a vote that has huge consequences for just for our country, but also

:40:57. > :41:01.implications for a whole continent. It unleashes a period of huge

:41:02. > :41:08.uncertainty, maybe huge opportunity, but huge risks as well. Kamal Ahmed

:41:09. > :41:12.has been following the immediate results. What other markets saying?

:41:13. > :41:19.This has come as a shock to the markets. We were seeing the pound at

:41:20. > :41:25.ten o'clock last night at record levels for 2016. It has now hit lows

:41:26. > :41:30.not seen since 1985. That is how much the markets are concerned about

:41:31. > :41:43.this decision for Britain to leave the European Union. It is down at

:41:44. > :41:51.1.30 four. It started at 1.50. It has fallen over 10%. In currency

:41:52. > :41:55.terms, that is astonishing. That type of volatility is higher than in

:41:56. > :42:02.the financial crisis of 2008, when Britain crashed out of the European

:42:03. > :42:06.exchange-rate mechanism in 1992. On the stock markets, the Nikkei in

:42:07. > :42:12.Japan, the Asian markets are open at the moment. The Nikkei is down. This

:42:13. > :42:18.is a global issue. It adds to the notion of global uncertainty. With

:42:19. > :42:25.and the euro has weakened significantly against the dollar. So

:42:26. > :42:30.not only is this a UK issue, it is a euro area issue as well. What will

:42:31. > :42:36.the ramifications be when Britain leaves? What will it mean for the

:42:37. > :42:42.other European Union economies? As Laura says, Britain has made a

:42:43. > :42:47.decision that has reversed the old famous phrase by the Clinton aide,

:42:48. > :42:51.it's the economy, stupid when it comes to issues of elections. People

:42:52. > :43:00.have said they don't care what they have been told about the economy. Or

:43:01. > :43:06.they may have a different view. I think as well, a big point which has

:43:07. > :43:11.been underestimated by the establishment, is that in 2008, the

:43:12. > :43:15.very few people predicted that people might not be able to go to

:43:16. > :43:22.their ATM and get out their own cash out of a bank. That really produced

:43:23. > :43:26.a complete disconnect between the public and the so-called people in

:43:27. > :43:33.charge. That is still running now. If economists tell you such and such

:43:34. > :43:37.is going to happen but in 2008, they couldn't guarantee that you could

:43:38. > :43:40.get money out of your own bank, why listen to them? Do you think

:43:41. > :43:43.emergency measures will be taken why the Chancellor or the Bank of

:43:44. > :43:53.England this morning to stop a run on sterling? I am sure the Bank of

:43:54. > :43:57.England will be considering what statements they need to make to the

:43:58. > :44:02.markets before the markets open in London in the next three hours. What

:44:03. > :44:09.other markets open in London or can the stock market be close? They will

:44:10. > :44:13.do. We will see the FTSE 's futures, an index which predicts which way

:44:14. > :44:19.the FTSE will go when it opens, is down 8% at the moment. Although we

:44:20. > :44:24.are in uncharted territory, it would be remarkable if the London market

:44:25. > :44:28.did not open. You can suspend trading if the volatility is so high

:44:29. > :44:34.and the initial fall is so deep. That decision can be taken. And it

:44:35. > :44:37.will be for the Bank of England to come together to talk about that. I

:44:38. > :44:43.am sure the Governor of the Bank of England, I am told this is being

:44:44. > :44:46.planned at the moment, will come out with some form of public statement.

:44:47. > :44:52.They hope to do it after the Prime Minister has spoken, to give some

:44:53. > :44:57.form of reassurance about liquidity, financial support and banks. Banking

:44:58. > :45:02.stocks are likely to be heavily hit when the markets open in London.

:45:03. > :45:06.HSBC, one of our biggest banks, is also listed on the Asian markets,

:45:07. > :45:11.and its share price is already falling. I'm getting a lot of tweets

:45:12. > :45:16.from businesses saying "I buy in dollars from suppliers from abroad

:45:17. > :45:21.and therefore my costs are going to go up hugely because of this". On

:45:22. > :45:25.one side, it would be bad for some businesses. But of course, if

:45:26. > :45:31.sterling falls, that is good for British exports. So although

:45:32. > :45:37.economically, there are pluses and minuses to what is happening, in

:45:38. > :45:39.terms of the currency, they were clearly too complacent at ten

:45:40. > :45:43.o'clock last night about which way this vote was going to go, and they

:45:44. > :45:48.are now desperately trying to change their position on sterling, because

:45:49. > :45:51.I am sure sterling is going to have a torrid time on the markets. And

:45:52. > :45:57.with the summer holiday is coming along, it is not much fun for people

:45:58. > :46:00.planning to go abroad. Those people who were queueing outside currency

:46:01. > :46:05.exchanges yesterday to buy their euros were pretty smart.

:46:06. > :46:13.John Curtice. We are expressing a degree of surprise about the fact

:46:14. > :46:15.that the majority of people voted to leave even though they were given

:46:16. > :46:21.warnings about the economic consequences. I think what one needs

:46:22. > :46:28.to realise is it was only ever the case that a plurality of people, not

:46:29. > :46:32.a majority of people, felt that the economy would suffer as a result of

:46:33. > :46:36.leaving, and that many of the people who were saying they were going to

:46:37. > :46:41.vote for leave, they said it is not enter make much difference.

:46:42. > :46:45.Conversely, on the other crucial issue of this referendum, a majority

:46:46. > :46:50.of people felt that immigration is currently too high and leaving the

:46:51. > :46:56.European Union would result in it falling. And so at the end of the

:46:57. > :47:01.day, although some people voted to remain despite their concerns about

:47:02. > :47:07.immigration, the immigration poll was potentially always rather

:47:08. > :47:11.greater than the economy poll. The only thing I would say about the

:47:12. > :47:16.financial markets, I have taken the view for some time that the

:47:17. > :47:19.financial markets were seriously underestimating the probability of a

:47:20. > :47:24.Leave vote. If you followed the Internet polls throughout this

:47:25. > :47:29.referendum campaign, they never, ever had Remain ahead, they called

:47:30. > :47:33.it 50/50 all the way through. It is also true that in the last 23 weeks

:47:34. > :47:38.of the referendum, the vote from Remain was clearly weakened, and

:47:39. > :47:41.once you take out some of the methodological changes that the

:47:42. > :47:46.pollsters made along the way, it was clear before we opened a single

:47:47. > :47:50.ballot box that the Leave side had won the campaign, there had been a

:47:51. > :47:52.clear shift towards Leave in the public opinion polls juror in the

:47:53. > :47:57.course of the last three or four weeks. You put all that together, I

:47:58. > :48:02.frankly did not understand why the pound was so calm during the course

:48:03. > :48:06.of yesterday. James Reynolds joins us from Brussels. I don't know

:48:07. > :48:12.whether anybody is around and you have avatars talk to anybody, but

:48:13. > :48:17.we'd like to know if you have -- a chance to talk to anybody? It is

:48:18. > :48:23.almost like a giant Brexit covered wrecking ball is about to bring its

:48:24. > :48:28.way through the building. I would imagine that Eurocrats at the moment

:48:29. > :48:37.I getting ready for the day of their lives. Carl Bildt, one of the most

:48:38. > :48:39.outspoken European diplomat says that Europe now faces immediate

:48:40. > :48:44.turmoil and possible long-term uncertainty. We expect the president

:48:45. > :48:49.of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, to come out in the next few

:48:50. > :48:54.hours, and then we expect Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker to

:48:55. > :48:58.speak as well. In effect now it is over to David Cameron because the

:48:59. > :49:03.European Council will await his informing them that he is triggering

:49:04. > :49:09.article 50 of the European Union treaty which calls for two years of

:49:10. > :49:13.negotiations for Britain to leave. Thanks very match indeed. Steve

:49:14. > :49:16.Hilton, let's come back to you and Chuka Umunna and talk about

:49:17. > :49:29.immigration, which John said was one of the key factors in this. Chuka,

:49:30. > :49:35.what should the policy on immigration be, do you think? The

:49:36. > :49:39.first observation to make is I think those who have argued for us to

:49:40. > :49:45.leave the European Union have a huge expectation to meet, because what

:49:46. > :49:49.they have said is if we leave the European Union, you get back control

:49:50. > :49:53.as it were and you can bring immigration down to the tens of

:49:54. > :49:57.thousands. Personally, I do and think they will be able to deliver

:49:58. > :50:02.on that. If you just take non-EU immigration, it is running at a net

:50:03. > :50:15.before you consider comment immigration from the EU, and Vote

:50:16. > :50:22.Leave's policy is to keep current European citizens living here living

:50:23. > :50:25.here. There will be huge increases in public service in investment,

:50:26. > :50:30.they said. I don't see how that will happen given the track record of any

:50:31. > :50:34.of the people saying this, their track record is to cut services. In

:50:35. > :50:39.terms of immigration, I think we need a much better debate about

:50:40. > :50:45.this. On the one hand, there is this suggestion that we could get rid of

:50:46. > :50:49.the emigrants and all our problems would be solved. I don't think that

:50:50. > :50:53.will happen. On the other hand, people said that immigration has

:50:54. > :50:57.been good for society, and I don't agree with that either. I think we

:50:58. > :51:02.have got to look at the way free movement operates within the EU, in

:51:03. > :51:07.fact we won't have to look at that any more because we are not gain to

:51:08. > :51:11.be in the opinion, but we need to look at the way migration frames

:51:12. > :51:14.work, not only the economic framework of immigration, but we

:51:15. > :51:19.need to be clear there are benefits that come with it as well. We have

:51:20. > :51:23.to work out how we better integrate people into society. We are obsessed

:51:24. > :51:27.with the numbers, and it is right that we look at those, but actually,

:51:28. > :51:32.although we are diverse communities, we are not integrated. A couple of

:51:33. > :51:37.final things. This is a seismic moment of our country that goes far

:51:38. > :51:42.beyond all the personalities or even what happens to David Cameron. This

:51:43. > :51:46.is a big thing for our country, and what this has exposed is a lot of

:51:47. > :51:50.division, and there is a lot of talk as if this is an overwhelming win,

:51:51. > :51:55.but there are 48% of people who didn't vote for this. The challenge

:51:56. > :52:00.in this context is how to lead and bring the country together, because

:52:01. > :52:03.we can take one of two courses. You can go the Donald Trump Avenue,

:52:04. > :52:07.going to the blame thing and look at who to blame for the problems. Or

:52:08. > :52:10.you adopt a different approach, which is how do you bring a

:52:11. > :52:16.splintered and fragmented society together to meet these context

:52:17. > :52:21.challenges. That is the way forward, how to unify and bring the country

:52:22. > :52:24.together, and this is a big wake-up for to the European Union itself,

:52:25. > :52:28.because this is going to have a profound effect on the French

:52:29. > :52:33.presidential election next year, in the election in Italy the year after

:52:34. > :52:38.that. They need to see this as a wake-up hall as well. This isn't

:52:39. > :52:43.just an issue for us in the UK, it is an issue for Europe. I will come

:52:44. > :52:45.back to you. We are joined by Keith Vaz, chairman of the Home Affairs

:52:46. > :52:52.Select Committee who joins us from Kettering. What do you think is

:52:53. > :52:59.going to happen now? Well, David, good morning. This is a crushing,

:53:00. > :53:03.crushing decision. It is a terrible day for Britain, and a terrible day

:53:04. > :53:09.for Europe, with immense consequences. 41 years when British

:53:10. > :53:14.ministers went over and embedded themselves in trying to make sure

:53:15. > :53:20.that Europe was open, protecting the single market, this is all gone in

:53:21. > :53:25.this day, and it is just so, so terrible. I think what needs to

:53:26. > :53:31.happen now is there has to be an emergency summit. I wouldn't be

:53:32. > :53:35.surprised if next week see you leaders -- the EU leaders didn't

:53:36. > :53:39.meet together, because we are one of the biggest countries, we are

:53:40. > :53:43.crucial to its success, and so the leaders have got to get together,

:53:44. > :53:48.and David Cameron has got to be there, and there has got to be a

:53:49. > :53:51.workable plan to ensure that we implement the wishes of the British

:53:52. > :53:57.people, even though we think it is the wrong decision, we have to

:53:58. > :54:01.respect that decision. It will have huge implications for our security,

:54:02. > :54:06.in particular the migration crisis, in dealing with illegal migration.

:54:07. > :54:11.We need the support of our EU partners to deal with the situation

:54:12. > :54:14.in Calais. It will have huge implications for our

:54:15. > :54:19.counterterrorism strategy. The issues surrounding the European

:54:20. > :54:24.Arrest Warrant, all of these matters are now put at risk by the decision

:54:25. > :54:27.that has been taken. Frankly, David, in a thousand years I would never

:54:28. > :54:31.have believed that the British people would have voted in this way,

:54:32. > :54:35.and they have done so, and I think that they have voted in motion the

:54:36. > :54:39.rather than looking at the facts, and it will be catastrophic for our

:54:40. > :54:47.country, for the rest of Europe and indeed the world. Why do you think

:54:48. > :54:50.they voted this way? I think you have correctly identified the issues

:54:51. > :54:54.of immigration are extremely important. If you look at the

:54:55. > :55:01.campaign, I think that there are needed to be a much stronger

:55:02. > :55:04.campaign to stay in. The Leave campaigners were prepared to indulge

:55:05. > :55:08.in hand-to-hand combat in local constituencies. I'm very pleased to

:55:09. > :55:13.say that the Leicester result has come in and Leicester has voted to

:55:14. > :55:19.remain, but with a very, very small majority, only 2500. This is a big

:55:20. > :55:22.shock to all of us in Leicester. If a city like Leicester just manages

:55:23. > :55:26.to vote to remain, there is a real problem in the way in which we put

:55:27. > :55:31.across the arguments and explained what we plan to do in reforming the

:55:32. > :55:35.European Union. The country obviously accepts that the European

:55:36. > :55:39.Union in the Prime Minister's words was not perfect, and they have

:55:40. > :55:46.decided they want to come out. So we have to accept that. But I think

:55:47. > :55:49.that the way we put these arguments across was perhaps not as effective

:55:50. > :55:54.as the Waverley campaign was prepared to go into local

:55:55. > :56:01.constituencies, -- Bolieve campaign was prepared to go to local people

:56:02. > :56:05.and acting that way. They rejected the advice of all the experts, all

:56:06. > :56:11.the arguments that have been put forward by almost everyone in

:56:12. > :56:15.Parliament. Those who are going to vote against this war in the

:56:16. > :56:20.minority. And the country has accepted it. They have rejected

:56:21. > :56:29.everything that has been put for us. It is democracy. It is, absolutely

:56:30. > :56:34.it is democracy, and that is why I am saying that we have to respect

:56:35. > :56:37.this decision, and act in the best interests of our country, and I

:56:38. > :56:40.think David Cameron fought a very strong campaign, he went around the

:56:41. > :56:44.country and put the arguments to the British people. But they have

:56:45. > :56:48.rejected those arguments, and therefore what we now need to do is

:56:49. > :56:54.to work with colleagues to make sure that we get the best deal in respect

:56:55. > :56:59.of our exit. Which I never thought I would ever say. Thank you joining

:57:00. > :57:08.us. Fiona Hyslop from full kirk and the Scottish National Party,

:57:09. > :57:15.Cottrell affairs Secretary with the responsibility of Europe. All along

:57:16. > :57:21.the concern has been by Unionists that if England voted Brexit and

:57:22. > :57:23.Scotland voted Remain, it would be an argument for another referendum,

:57:24. > :57:32.and Scotland would leave the union and remain in the EU. Is that what

:57:33. > :57:39.you think now is a prospect? Scotland has clearly and decisively

:57:40. > :57:42.voted to remain part of the European Union, 62% to 38%, and increase

:57:43. > :57:47.turnout from even the Scottish parliament elections barely six

:57:48. > :57:53.weeks ago. That clearly sends a strong message. We quite clearly see

:57:54. > :57:56.a different type of politics in Scotland, a different approach to

:57:57. > :58:00.constitutional affairs, and I think people will be looking very closely

:58:01. > :58:03.at this result and looking at the prospect of Scotland and what is in

:58:04. > :58:08.the best interest of Scotland going forward. We set out in our manifesto

:58:09. > :58:12.barely six weeks ago our conditions and concerns about when and if our

:58:13. > :58:16.independence referendum would take place, but the reaction from people,

:58:17. > :58:22.many of whom will have voted no to Scottish independence less than two

:58:23. > :58:25.years ago on the premise that somehow we wouldn't be part of the

:58:26. > :58:29.European membership which should be looking very closely and

:58:30. > :58:33.reappraising their situation just now. So I think the reaction from

:58:34. > :58:37.Scotland will be strong, it has been strong tonight, but we will see in

:58:38. > :58:45.the next few days as we see the final result play out. The final

:58:46. > :58:48.result I think is fairly clear, it will be something like four points

:58:49. > :58:53.between them, but Nicola Sturgeon says that when it becomes clear,

:58:54. > :58:59.let's see her quotation. While the overall result remains to be

:59:00. > :59:02.declared, the vote makes clear that the people of Scotland to their

:59:03. > :59:09.future as part of the European Union. And what would the process

:59:10. > :59:13.for that be? We clearly have interest in our European Union

:59:14. > :59:15.membership, and we want to make sure that our trading and connections

:59:16. > :59:20.with our European neighbours and partners can continue. The basis of

:59:21. > :59:25.that will have to be negotiated whatever the results finally as it

:59:26. > :59:28.comes through. But we are quite clear, the Scottish Government will

:59:29. > :59:32.protect Scotland's interests whatever the circumstances, and we

:59:33. > :59:37.intend to do that. How we do that will depend on what the result is,

:59:38. > :59:40.but we are very clear, the Scottish people have spoken, and their

:59:41. > :59:43.interests are by retaining that membership, and our relations with

:59:44. > :59:47.Europe, we have to find the means by which we can do that, but clearly

:59:48. > :59:52.there is some way to go in terms of determining the mechanism of doing

:59:53. > :59:55.that. Decisions have consequences, and the United Kingdom has made a

:59:56. > :00:00.decision against the interest of the Scottish people, that will have

:00:01. > :00:02.consequences. Fiona Hyslop, thank you very much. Laura, you are after

:00:03. > :00:07.Downing Street. What are you going to do? We will wait and see what the

:00:08. > :00:14.Prime Minister will come out and say. At five in the morning? We have

:00:15. > :00:19.predicted there will be a dawn raid. We are not expecting anything very

:00:20. > :00:23.imminent, but we are out at Elstree, it might take me a while to get

:00:24. > :00:27.there. This is such a huge moment for our politics, certainly the

:00:28. > :00:32.biggest political decision we have taken in my lifetime, probably the

:00:33. > :00:36.biggest political position we will take in my lifetime, this has

:00:37. > :00:40.implications for everything, economy, immigration policy, our

:00:41. > :00:44.place in the world, for good or ill, this will define our politics for

:00:45. > :00:47.years to come, and one of the most pressing immediate issues is what it

:00:48. > :00:54.means the David Cameron's time in office. There is a tension there as

:00:55. > :00:57.to whether or not this huge snub for his personal authority drives him

:00:58. > :01:01.out of office, or whether or not he feels that poll that Steve Hilton

:01:02. > :01:06.was suggesting, that Aperture much was time he feels he should fight to

:01:07. > :01:18.stay on to try to give an impression of karma least while this decision

:01:19. > :01:22.sinks in. -- an impression of calm. So you are going to Downing Street?

:01:23. > :01:28.Yes I will see how quickly I can get there. Kamal Ahmed, pick us up on

:01:29. > :01:32.the markets just quickly. The Japanese stock market has fallen

:01:33. > :01:41.sharply, it is down about 8%. We have seen the pound flirting with

:01:42. > :01:51.levels not seen since 1985, and what is called FTSE Futures, a prediction

:01:52. > :01:58.of where it will go when the market opened, that is down 7%. This is a

:01:59. > :02:03.global issue, the euro itself has fallen towards parity with the

:02:04. > :02:08.dollar, so that is also being sold. There is a real flight to safety, so

:02:09. > :02:14.people are moving towards the dollar, gold has gone up by 7%

:02:15. > :02:20.today. I just think that the uncertainty that this creates will

:02:21. > :02:25.create this very volatile day on the markets, and will mean that for the

:02:26. > :02:29.next 24 hours certainly, and certainly for the next few days as

:02:30. > :02:33.the markets try to digestive something that frankly they didn't

:02:34. > :02:38.believe was going to happen will be astonishingly volatile, and I am

:02:39. > :02:43.sure that George Osborne, whilst he remains as Chancellor, Mark Carney,

:02:44. > :02:52.the governor of the Bank of England, will be in discussion about how they

:02:53. > :02:54.can provide at least a degree of reassurance that that volatility

:02:55. > :03:02.doesn't spiral into anything worse within the UK economy. Steve Hilton,

:03:03. > :03:07.you heard Keith Vaz, really moved, speaking as though the Earth has

:03:08. > :03:15.dropped beneath his feet, the whole world has changed. And worried about

:03:16. > :03:21.the effects of it? Do you think it is as seismic and event as that? I

:03:22. > :03:26.do. I share the ocean in a sense, but in the other direction. I think

:03:27. > :03:29.it is an absolutely stunning result, but one that has huge opportunity

:03:30. > :03:34.for our country, and indeed the world. We have to make the most of

:03:35. > :03:40.it now, that is the most important thing, and I agree with everything

:03:41. > :03:46.that Chuka Umunna said earlier to use it as a wake-up call to address

:03:47. > :03:49.some of the problems that have been festering for so long and have led

:03:50. > :03:53.to this result. It is not just the last few years, it goes back

:03:54. > :03:57.decades, in the sense that people are losing control, it is about

:03:58. > :04:01.power going into fewer and fewer hands, not just in relation to

:04:02. > :04:04.Government in politics, but in the economy to, with big as nurses

:04:05. > :04:08.operating around the world, and being callous about the impacts of

:04:09. > :04:12.their decisions on people's lives. I think that is what this vote is all

:04:13. > :04:18.about, and I think we have really got to take it seriously. But I

:04:19. > :04:23.think the interesting thing about this take control argument that has

:04:24. > :04:27.been used by many who advocate as leaving the European Union, the idea

:04:28. > :04:33.that take control to the UK state, but most people making the argument

:04:34. > :04:36.do not believe in active government in the economy in terms of trying to

:04:37. > :04:40.shake the economy so that it delivers for people, and that is why

:04:41. > :04:45.I think that there is a slight, there will be interpretation on

:04:46. > :04:50.this. You see it as a constitutional power thing, but ultimately, why is

:04:51. > :04:53.it that immigration has prevailed and been such a potent issue?

:04:54. > :04:57.Because you have an economy you don't think -- people don't think is

:04:58. > :05:01.working for them, and this thing comes down to how do we make

:05:02. > :05:06.globalisation work for middle and lower-income earners who frankly

:05:07. > :05:11.think that for an internationally mobile 1%, it works, but for them it

:05:12. > :05:14.doesn't. I don't fix a small state solution that many of the people in

:05:15. > :05:29.vote leave think when it comes to domestic Waller -- politics. I don't

:05:30. > :05:36.think it is a domestic thing either. We talk about making globalisation

:05:37. > :05:43.work for people, it is about human beings, do they have the skills and

:05:44. > :05:47.the potentials to flourish in an economy, that has to be done at a

:05:48. > :05:52.human level, and neighbourhood level, that is why it should be a

:05:53. > :05:56.wake-up for the past power back, not just from Brussels to the UK but

:05:57. > :06:02.within the UK as well. I don't think I agree with that. It is not

:06:03. > :06:08.decentralising power, it is giving people more power. You saw Keith

:06:09. > :06:11.Vaz's face. It is an earthquake. This is seismic, it is an utter

:06:12. > :06:15.earthquake, and I think it will degrade this debate if it all comes

:06:16. > :06:20.down to a discussion about the future of David Cameron. This is

:06:21. > :06:23.going to affect every single person watching this programme, every

:06:24. > :06:30.family, every community, and if this descends into 24-hour is, will

:06:31. > :06:34.Cameron be out, I frankly don't care. The priority in the short term

:06:35. > :06:38.has to be to stabilise our economy, stabilise the markets. Sterling is

:06:39. > :06:45.dropping like you wouldn't believe, this is very serious. And there is a

:06:46. > :06:51.serious question about who can best stabilise things at this stage. In

:06:52. > :06:53.the media to short-term, I don't see how Cameron can lead the

:06:54. > :06:57.negotiation, and I think it is very important that we get the best deal

:06:58. > :07:01.possible in terms of the negotiation of our exit for my constituents at

:07:02. > :07:06.every person watching this programme. I think he is compromised

:07:07. > :07:11.because of what has happened in his ability to lead that, and I am not

:07:12. > :07:16.making a party political point here, but whoever is in charge, they have

:07:17. > :07:20.to get the best deal now. But we have to remember in this debate, 48%

:07:21. > :07:23.of people didn't want this to happen, and everybody must respect

:07:24. > :07:30.the result, but also respect the fact that this is a divided result.

:07:31. > :07:38.Emily, back to you. Andrew Walmsley at Isabel Hardman, this moment has

:07:39. > :07:44.been called seismic. It is a 910, how high can you go? It is also

:07:45. > :07:51.unprecedented, no one has ever left the EU before, and no one has ever

:07:52. > :07:56.left and economic community. It is a non-compete above example, a major

:07:57. > :08:01.member of the European Union leaving, or one of its most

:08:02. > :08:06.important economies, so this evening and overnight we have been

:08:07. > :08:10.concentrating on the effects of Britain, but people reeling with

:08:11. > :08:13.shock around Europe. I have been talking to diplomats and other

:08:14. > :08:19.people around Europe before the referendum, and they were seriously

:08:20. > :08:26.concerned. I think deep down, they thought that the British would

:08:27. > :08:30.reluctantly vote to say. -- stay. They will bring out statement saying

:08:31. > :08:33.we regret it, but the show goes on, but the truth is they know that this

:08:34. > :08:38.is a massive blow to the self-esteem of the EU. The people it is most

:08:39. > :08:42.likely to energising politics in Europe are people like Marine Le Pen

:08:43. > :08:45.in France and other European countries populace to the right, who

:08:46. > :08:51.also want to take their countries out of the EU, and we will see how

:08:52. > :08:53.they react, because obviously if things go really badly, we will

:08:54. > :08:59.still have some relationship without continent. The negotiations will

:09:00. > :09:05.become very poisoned, and it will be punitive to Britain, and others say

:09:06. > :09:07.we still need a relationship with Britain, and that will depend on how

:09:08. > :09:18.Britain broaches it as well. It is not as though British people

:09:19. > :09:24.are more grouchy than other countries. In Italy, France and

:09:25. > :09:29.Holland, voters are not fans of the European Union. You think this is

:09:30. > :09:41.the beginning of the end of the EU as a whole? I would not go that far.

:09:42. > :09:45.In technical terms, David Cameron has made clear that there was no

:09:46. > :09:52.plan B. The civil service didn't have anything in mind for if this

:09:53. > :09:56.happened. There is a debate about whether he should trigger article 50

:09:57. > :10:06.quickly or not, but also whether he should stay on as leader. He claimed

:10:07. > :10:11.Brexit would put a bomb under the economy. Things are already looking

:10:12. > :10:15.shaky. For the Prime Minister to carry on leading, he needs to say, I

:10:16. > :10:25.didn't mean that, which is difficult. There is an additional

:10:26. > :10:37.problem which now appears clear. But of course, we are not going to toe

:10:38. > :10:42.off into the mid-Atlantic. If you don't want to be a member of the

:10:43. > :10:49.European Union, what relationship do you want? It could be Norway,

:10:50. > :10:55.Switzerland or Turkey. And the Out campaign never agreed on this. They

:10:56. > :10:59.changed their accounts. Before that, there is this question which has

:11:00. > :11:04.been a shadowy figure of a second referendum of going back to ask

:11:05. > :11:10.again, or another election which might trigger a second referendum.

:11:11. > :11:12.Are we now saying that cannot, in democratic circumstances, happen?

:11:13. > :11:23.Jean-Claude Juncker did rule that out clearly this week. That was

:11:24. > :11:28.before. I suspect the European leaders might want to say, that is

:11:29. > :11:33.it. You cannot fiddle around. If you have a second referendum, Britain

:11:34. > :11:40.might vote to leave even more overwhelmingly. Boris Johnson did

:11:41. > :11:44.flirt with this idea of a second referendum. I do think this process

:11:45. > :11:53.is at least two years if article 50 is triggered. If what is happening

:11:54. > :12:00.in the markets now is a precursor to the serious economic damage that the

:12:01. > :12:05.Remain campaign said would be a result, we will see what public

:12:06. > :12:10.opinion does and whether people say, do we want a referendum on the

:12:11. > :12:19.eventual terms of the deal? I think when a country has voted as it has,

:12:20. > :12:27.to say, we will have a second go, it might be a more resounding answer.

:12:28. > :12:31.What about the Brexit austerity Budget? Do you think we will see

:12:32. > :12:37.that? I don't think so. I don't think George Osborne will survive

:12:38. > :12:44.long. You think he will be gone by the weekend? In his current job?

:12:45. > :12:47.Well, there is a practical thing when there is so much economic

:12:48. > :12:52.volatility, whatever his medium to long term future, and this goes for

:12:53. > :12:56.David Cameron as well, whether you want to lose your Chancellor in the

:12:57. > :13:05.middle of what could be potentially extreme turbulence on world markets.

:13:06. > :13:08.But Brexit Tories were gunning for Osborne long before this. They saw

:13:09. > :13:14.him as a sacrificial lamb. Does one character emerged for you to take on

:13:15. > :13:17.the Brexit negotiations? That is a good question, who will be the

:13:18. > :13:26.Brexit negotiator? That was my question to you! They never told us,

:13:27. > :13:31.did they? I don't think they know. Deep down, they are surprised. Nigel

:13:32. > :13:39.Farage was conceding earlier in the night. It has been a strange night

:13:40. > :13:46.for him. There are big questions for them. Is there a sense that they

:13:47. > :13:52.were never quite expecting to win, it was just meant to be an insurgent

:13:53. > :13:58.rallying cry? No, there were lots of true believers in the Leave camp who

:13:59. > :14:03.thought it was possible. Figures like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove

:14:04. > :14:09.had very good campaigns. So now they have become the establishment that

:14:10. > :14:15.they railed about. David. Let's now look at how things stand

:14:16. > :14:18.and how the story has unfolded and where it is that the Leave campaign

:14:19. > :14:25.has won and where the Remain campaign has won in this very close

:14:26. > :14:30.vote, which leaves four points between the two sites.

:14:31. > :14:34.Jeremy. Yes, let me take you inside the Queen Elizabeth Tower. We

:14:35. > :14:40.thought we would do a comparison with the first referendum in 1975,

:14:41. > :14:45.so we can see how the nation is divided. Let's bring on a clock face

:14:46. > :14:51.here. I guess this is as close as we get to a swingometer on a referendum

:14:52. > :15:00.night. This is England in 1975. The blue is Leave and England was on

:15:01. > :15:06.31.5% Leave in 1975. This is so dramatic. What is we feed in the

:15:07. > :15:10.results from the last 24 hours. Nearly 55%. England are more

:15:11. > :15:14.Eurosceptic on average than the country as a whole. A massive change

:15:15. > :15:22.in England over those four decades. And in Wales, have a look. Go back

:15:23. > :15:34.to 1975, 35 cents in Wales said no to the EU. -- 35%. Now look at the

:15:35. > :15:40.figure for 2016. Here it comes, and again it is over 50%. Wales is much

:15:41. > :15:45.more Eurosceptic than it was in 1975. So England and Wales are very

:15:46. > :15:49.similar. But now the story changes. If you look at Northern Ireland in

:15:50. > :15:55.1975, you see a high level of Eurosceptic voting. Nearly 50%

:15:56. > :15:59.against. They have become more inclined towards the EU in the last

:16:00. > :16:10.four decades, and the Leave vote has dropped to below 45%. So Remain are

:16:11. > :16:17.on the increase. Scotland have the same sentiment. In 1975, this was

:16:18. > :16:21.the Leave vote, 41%. In 2016, it drops back and you have this

:16:22. > :16:25.extraordinary situation. One Scottish politician was saying

:16:26. > :16:30.earlier, you are told to stay in the UK to remain in the EU, and staying

:16:31. > :16:34.in the UK has the reverse effect, with parts of England pulling

:16:35. > :16:37.Scotland out of the EU. So it is very dramatic. Northern Ireland and

:16:38. > :16:42.Scotland are becoming more enthusiastic about the European

:16:43. > :16:47.Union. Wales and England, over the last 40 years, dramatically more

:16:48. > :16:52.sceptical. Thanks very much. We have a comment

:16:53. > :16:59.from Paddy Ashdown, who was with us earlier. He says, God help our

:17:00. > :17:07.country. And we are joined by Neil Hamilton, the leader of Ukip in the

:17:08. > :17:16.Welsh assembly. You have won. What should happen now? The government

:17:17. > :17:25.has to take control. We have to take things back again. We have to work

:17:26. > :17:34.on a system for immigration control. We have to take control of Paris. In

:17:35. > :17:39.the steel in street in Port Talbot, we can impose tariffs against steel

:17:40. > :17:43.which is dumped on our markets by the Chinese at way below cost. There

:17:44. > :17:47.are so mini things the government has to do. In the longer term, we

:17:48. > :17:49.have to disentangle ourselves from the morass of legislation we have a

:17:50. > :18:00.key related over 40 years. What is the timescale, in your view?

:18:01. > :18:05.I think the Government should first of all give the EU noticed that it

:18:06. > :18:10.is invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which begins the process of

:18:11. > :18:15.negotiation as to our future trading relationship with the EU. We are

:18:16. > :18:18.free traders and we want to continue to have full access to the single

:18:19. > :18:23.market on the same basis we have now, and that will be hugely in the

:18:24. > :18:27.EU's interest, because we have a trade deficit with them. So we need

:18:28. > :18:32.to resolve that uncertainty, and that is a matter of great importance

:18:33. > :18:35.and they should move on quickly. And how soon do you think that the

:18:36. > :18:40.control of immigration once we are not subject to EU freedom of

:18:41. > :18:45.movement should take place? I think that should happen quite quickly,

:18:46. > :18:48.to. What does quite quickly mean? I don't know what the administrative

:18:49. > :18:54.competitions are in the short term in terms of recruitment and design

:18:55. > :18:59.of an Australian style points-based system, but that is something that I

:19:00. > :19:06.would have thought could be designed and put together in 12 months or

:19:07. > :19:16.yes. Do you think this is Farage's victory? Oh, yes. Ukip would not be

:19:17. > :19:19.where it is today but for Nigel Farage's vision and dynamism, and we

:19:20. > :19:22.wouldn't have the referendum without that. Let's be under no illusions

:19:23. > :19:27.whatsoever that this is his victory first and foremost. I want to talk

:19:28. > :19:36.to Caroline Lucas who has just joined us, but Andrea Leadsom is a

:19:37. > :19:40.Conservative MP, somebody who... And energy minister. Are you surprised

:19:41. > :19:44.this has happened? I'm not surprised, I think it is a fantastic

:19:45. > :19:50.opportunity for the UK, I am so excited about it. I am not at all

:19:51. > :19:54.surprised, I think in talking to people in going about doing rallies

:19:55. > :19:58.and so on, it was very clear that people have just had enough. They

:19:59. > :20:03.have had enough of being told what to do, but really importantly, they

:20:04. > :20:06.didn't buy all the fear mongering, scaremongering. But let's look

:20:07. > :20:10.ahead. How quickly would you like to see the Government act? Would you

:20:11. > :20:16.like Article 50 to be invoked immediately in Brussels? Do you

:20:17. > :20:29.envisage the possibility of immigration being cut immediately? I

:20:30. > :20:34.think what we now want to do is to take a calm and rational luck at

:20:35. > :20:40.what the next steps are. What are the alternatives? As Bill Cash said,

:20:41. > :20:44.you can have a separate negotiation, it doesn't have to be through

:20:45. > :20:50.article 50. When Greenland left the EU, they didn't have Article 50, so

:20:51. > :20:54.it is perfectly possible to have a bilateral agreement with the

:20:55. > :20:57.European Union and to make different arrangements, so I think what we

:20:58. > :21:02.need to do is calmly reflect on what the alternatives are, but at the

:21:03. > :21:05.same time to look at the possibilities of a presumption of

:21:06. > :21:09.continuity for the free trade agreements that we are already party

:21:10. > :21:13.tour was a member of the EU, and all of the trade negotiations both with

:21:14. > :21:19.the EU and with other countries that at the moment we are unable to trade

:21:20. > :21:22.with directly. You are the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The

:21:23. > :21:27.markets are tumbling, sterling is falling, what you do immediately? We

:21:28. > :21:31.need to be, as I say, calm reflection. How can we have calm

:21:32. > :21:38.reflection when the world is falling about your ears? The world isn't,

:21:39. > :21:42.and I regret when people say those things. Markets are volatile, we

:21:43. > :21:46.have just had a period of extraordinary scaremongering, really

:21:47. > :21:52.quite extraordinary, trying to up the ante on volatility in the

:21:53. > :21:55.market, and as we know, the market will always position itself to try

:21:56. > :22:01.to take profit from something like this. They got it wrong, and now

:22:02. > :22:04.there is a big surprise, so it is perfectly likely that there will be

:22:05. > :22:09.some volatility, but the fundamentals in the economy remain

:22:10. > :22:15.very strong, I have been 30 years in financial services, I lived through

:22:16. > :22:19.the ERM crisis and the 2008 crisis in the Barings bank crisis. The

:22:20. > :22:22.fundamentals in our economy are extraordinarily strong, and if we

:22:23. > :22:26.keep calm and take a measured decisions and don't rush into

:22:27. > :22:36.things, it will be fine, and it is a superb opportunity for the UK. What

:22:37. > :22:40.we thought should happen first thing in the morning, you are quite right

:22:41. > :22:44.in that the fundamentals haven't changed from yesterday to today, but

:22:45. > :22:49.if the markets are in freefall, and much more aggressively than 2008 a

:22:50. > :22:54.natural crisis, what should the Treasury do with the Bank of

:22:55. > :22:58.England? The Bank of England has tools at its disposal, and I'm quite

:22:59. > :23:02.sure the Bank of England will be looking to see what if any steps

:23:03. > :23:05.they need to take. But I do think that what we need is calm, measured

:23:06. > :23:09.discussion. We haven't had that for the last few weeks. The markets may

:23:10. > :23:14.not wait. You have seen the volatility over night. This morning,

:23:15. > :23:19.we need calm, measured discussion. The markets of course will react

:23:20. > :23:24.with the uncertainty, as you have been saying throughout the night,

:23:25. > :23:28.but it is uncertainty, it doesn't mean the economic fundamentals have

:23:29. > :23:32.changed. There are huge opportunities for the UK economy of

:23:33. > :23:36.leaving the EU, and it is a case of calm, measured reflection on the

:23:37. > :23:39.fact that this is fine, and this is a very big decision, but there are

:23:40. > :23:44.easy steps that we can take to put ourselves back in control, that we

:23:45. > :23:48.can calm the markets and avoid the destabilising effect. Listening to

:23:49. > :23:52.you is Caroline Lucas of the Green party, MP for the Green party.

:23:53. > :23:56.Caroline Lucas, how have you reacted to this news of the democratic will

:23:57. > :24:02.of the British people who have decided they want to leave the EU? I

:24:03. > :24:06.think this is an absolutely devastating result, personally I

:24:07. > :24:11.feel pretty heartbroken. I think it has revealed massive divisions

:24:12. > :24:15.within our country, it feels like there are such levels of alienation

:24:16. > :24:19.and anger and frustration which I think is a real wake-up call to

:24:20. > :24:24.Westminster. We have got here basically people rebelling against

:24:25. > :24:29.the leaders of 98% of MPs in Westminster, and I hope I suppose is

:24:30. > :24:33.that as we go forward and try to work out how to heal the country

:24:34. > :24:37.again and steal some of these divisions, we can have a debate

:24:38. > :24:40.about wider constitutional issues, not just about what the people have

:24:41. > :24:45.now said about withdrawing from the EU, but how to make sure people have

:24:46. > :24:48.a voice in our democracy more broadly, and I think that will have

:24:49. > :24:52.to include looking at things like our voting system. We have a

:24:53. > :24:57.Government that was elected with just 24% of the eligible vote, and

:24:58. > :25:01.part of the anger that we are hearing from around the country was

:25:02. > :25:05.less to do with the EU per se and more to do with a sense of having

:25:06. > :25:11.been on Hurd has so many years. Sorry you say it wasn't actually a

:25:12. > :25:14.vote about whether to Remain orra Leave, but a symbolic vote of

:25:15. > :25:20.defiance against MPs and the House of Commons, where the majority were

:25:21. > :25:24.in favour of staying, and this particular Government, is that what

:25:25. > :25:28.you are saying? I think the EU is a proxy for legitimate anger. We saw

:25:29. > :25:32.it played out over the issue of immigration, where so many people's

:25:33. > :25:37.very real and legitimate concerns about housing and public services,

:25:38. > :25:41.access to health and so forth, so much throughout this campaign was

:25:42. > :25:44.able to be blamed on immigration when we know in actual fact the

:25:45. > :25:48.freedom of movement was bringing finance into the country, and the

:25:49. > :25:55.benefits of that finance were not being properly shared, so one of the

:25:56. > :25:59.things we should have been saying was not just agreeing that there was

:26:00. > :26:02.a dividend from immigration, but making sure that the funding went

:26:03. > :26:06.into the places of greatest pressure, everything from libraries

:26:07. > :26:12.to leisure centres to make sure people understand that there is

:26:13. > :26:16.something favourably in this. The leave campaign never put a figure on

:26:17. > :26:20.how it wanted to cut immigration, it simply said it would be a button

:26:21. > :26:26.control it outside the EU. It begs the question of how many migrants

:26:27. > :26:29.would be allowed in year-on-year. You are absolutely right, there was

:26:30. > :26:33.never any clarity from the Leave campaign about how they would waive

:26:34. > :26:38.the wonder and immigration would vanish, even if that was what was

:26:39. > :26:43.wanted. In many ways, people have been sold a snake oil. They have

:26:44. > :26:46.been told that leaving the EU was going to be the solution to a whole

:26:47. > :26:51.range of problems, and what I fear is that some of the people who

:26:52. > :26:54.already are hurting most from austerity, from an economic

:26:55. > :26:58.programme that simply isn't helping some of the poorest people, I think

:26:59. > :27:02.they will find that leaving the EU will make that even worse. Caroline

:27:03. > :27:08.Lucas, thank you very much for joining us. Let's now go to James

:27:09. > :27:11.Landale, who is at the Remain headquarters or what is left of

:27:12. > :27:17.them, which doesn't seem to be very much. Good morning. There isn't much

:27:18. > :27:21.here at all now. Dawn has broken the Royal Festival Hall on the south

:27:22. > :27:27.bank of the Thames. We remember almost 20 years ago this was where

:27:28. > :27:33.Tony Blair gave that famous speech, a new dawn has broken. That was a

:27:34. > :27:35.moment of extraordinary euphoria amongst the crowds outside. The mood

:27:36. > :27:40.here is pretty much directly the opposite. Most people have left now,

:27:41. > :27:46.the mood was pretty grim, people were hugging each other, there were

:27:47. > :27:49.one or two tiers, because they are just sitting there scratching their

:27:50. > :27:53.heads wondering what on earth went wrong. Some of them were thinking,

:27:54. > :27:56.they never had an argument to address the question about

:27:57. > :28:00.immigration, they try to change it to the economy, but they never

:28:01. > :28:04.actually addressed the attacks they were getting over immigration, that

:28:05. > :28:09.is one thing. Another point others make, maybe there was too much basic

:28:10. > :28:14.and ticks. David Cameron versus Boris Johnson, my document is better

:28:15. > :28:16.than your document, instead of bringing the debate back to what

:28:17. > :28:22.they see as the more fundamental issues. But primarily a lot of them

:28:23. > :28:25.were just saying, the tide is against them on this, clearly an

:28:26. > :28:31.extraordinary thing has happened here in this vote in the last 24

:28:32. > :28:33.hours, and they wonder if there was anything they could have done

:28:34. > :28:37.different in this campaign that would have changed that, that is

:28:38. > :28:41.what they are thinking now. Thank you very much, James. Emily

:28:42. > :28:44.Thornbury, Labour MP, Shadow Defence Secretary, what you make of what has

:28:45. > :28:51.happened? You're looking downcast, I have to say. I have been thinking

:28:52. > :28:57.about what Andrea has been saying, very much one of the slogans used by

:28:58. > :29:02.the Brexiteers was take back control, but what I did hear from

:29:03. > :29:09.her is what the plan is now. If the pound is now at a lower level from

:29:10. > :29:12.where it has been since nine needs five -- 1985, we need to have a

:29:13. > :29:18.plan. It isn't enough to just sit back and think about it. So I think

:29:19. > :29:23.that is very worrying. I think in the end, it is going to be a very

:29:24. > :29:27.challenging period. We are a great country, we can get through this,

:29:28. > :29:32.but it is going to be really hard. You have called the vote and we

:29:33. > :29:37.haven't had all the results yet, that if you are right, it is going

:29:38. > :29:41.to be a very difficult period, and I think leaving aside the plan,

:29:42. > :29:49.leaving aside the economy, leaving aside what we are going to do to

:29:50. > :29:52.pull ourselves together, I think we have to face the fact that half of

:29:53. > :29:55.the people in this country felt that the existing system didn't work for

:29:56. > :30:03.them, and they felt that Europe was part of that existing system, and we

:30:04. > :30:06.have to be ABTA face that challenge -- to be able to face that

:30:07. > :30:18.challenge. People were saying, I have two adult sons living with me,

:30:19. > :30:23.there are not enough homes or at two too few jobs, I'm fed with not being

:30:24. > :30:28.able to get access to my doctor, there were many things that were

:30:29. > :30:33.blamed on Europe. So you saying this referendum was used by the voters as

:30:34. > :30:36.a proxy for punishing both the Labour Party and the Conservative

:30:37. > :30:41.Party for policies over a long period? I think it was a kick back

:30:42. > :30:45.on the establishment, and I think the EU was part of that. Do you

:30:46. > :30:49.think it was a mistake to hold a referendum? The decision was made,

:30:50. > :30:54.and it is so much always about Cameron, about his position within

:30:55. > :30:57.the Conservative Party, keeping the Conservative Party happy was why we

:30:58. > :31:02.needed to have the referendum, we all know it was about internal

:31:03. > :31:06.Conservative Party politics, and then the election itself was fronted

:31:07. > :31:12.up by David Cameron, and it was very difficult to get in around aside to

:31:13. > :31:18.argue the other issues, which was very unfortunate, I think. But I

:31:19. > :31:22.think that in a way, some of the kicking against the establishment

:31:23. > :31:26.was also part of what we saw in some ways with the election of Jeremy

:31:27. > :31:30.Corbyn, who was also seen as an antiestablishment figure, and in

:31:31. > :31:34.many ways, if you had been able to have an opportunity to speak more

:31:35. > :31:43.than he did, his ideas of, I give the EU seven out of ten, I think

:31:44. > :31:44.that spoke more truthfully to the British public than other ideas

:31:45. > :31:54.being put forward. How do you know it wasn't just

:31:55. > :32:00.people thinking they didn't want to be in the EU? Well, I spoke to a

:32:01. > :32:03.plasterer who said it was fed up with not being paid enough knowing

:32:04. > :32:08.there were others who could get his job. He didn't think the terms and

:32:09. > :32:12.conditions he was getting were good enough. We in Britain could solve

:32:13. > :32:17.that by making our terms and conditions better and by upping the

:32:18. > :32:23.minimum wage. Those powers are in the Prime Minister's hands whether

:32:24. > :32:26.we are in the EU or not. But people looked to see who to blame, and they

:32:27. > :32:33.turned their sights on the EU. Let's have a summary of the news.

:32:34. > :32:45.The BBC forecasts that Britain has voted to leave the EU. With most

:32:46. > :32:49.votes counted, the Leave camp has taken 52% of the vote after strong

:32:50. > :32:54.winds in north-east England and the Midlands. The result, one confirmed,

:32:55. > :32:56.will unleash a period of considerable political and financial

:32:57. > :33:01.uncertainty in the country and across the world. Our report begins

:33:02. > :33:08.with the moment the BBC announced its prediction.

:33:09. > :33:16.We can now say the decision taken by 1975 to join the Common Market has

:33:17. > :33:23.been reversed by this referendum to leave the EU. We are absolutely

:33:24. > :33:27.clear now that there is no way the Remain side can win.

:33:28. > :33:31.Watch and listen carefully. This is history in the making. The British

:33:32. > :33:38.people have spoken and the answer is, we are out. And these worthy

:33:39. > :33:45.celebrations just moments before the BBC called the result. This will be

:33:46. > :33:54.a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for

:33:55. > :33:59.decent people. With the pound plunging, Remain campaigners warned

:34:00. > :34:02.of turmoil ahead. This is a crushing, crushing decision. It's a

:34:03. > :34:09.terrible day for Britain and a terrible day for Europe, with

:34:10. > :34:13.immense consequences. This is a seismic moment for our country, that

:34:14. > :34:18.goes far beyond all the personalities. There will be a lot

:34:19. > :34:22.of chat about what happens to David Cameron but it is a big thing for

:34:23. > :34:26.our country and it has exposed a lot of division. There is a lot of talk

:34:27. > :34:31.as if it is an overwhelming win, it isn't. 48% of people did not vote

:34:32. > :34:36.for this. It wasn't long after polls closed before Leave started marking

:34:37. > :34:41.up big wins. Across the north-east, results soon showed Leave doing

:34:42. > :34:46.consistently better than predicted. A big win in Hartlepool, and pushing

:34:47. > :34:57.Remain into a narrow victory in Newcastle. 65404. A smaller vote

:34:58. > :35:03.than expect. Away from the north of England in Basildon in Essex,

:35:04. > :35:10.another big win for Leave. And another account with a big turnout

:35:11. > :35:16.at 74%. And in Flintshire, just as across the rest of Wales, voters

:35:17. > :35:22.backed Brexit. But in Edinburgh, the Remain campaign secured a big win.

:35:23. > :35:26.And there was good news for Remain across London, picking up

:35:27. > :35:31.significant Remain wins. But Britain has voted to leave the European

:35:32. > :35:34.Union, to tear up the settlement the country has had for decades,

:35:35. > :35:45.unleashing perhaps you'd opportunity or perhaps you'd risk, perhaps both.

:35:46. > :35:47.The results have upset the world's financial markets,

:35:48. > :35:50.with the pound falling again in the past hour to $1.34,

:35:51. > :35:54.When the polls closed, it soared to $1.50,

:35:55. > :35:57.stronger-than-expected support for leaving the EU,

:35:58. > :36:12.Traders say they haven't seen such dramatic moves since the financial

:36:13. > :36:15.crisis of 2008. Scotland's First Minister Nicholas

:36:16. > :36:19.Durden has suggested that the Leave vote will reignite demands for an

:36:20. > :36:26.independence referendum -- Nicola Sturgeon. She said the EU vote made

:36:27. > :36:32.clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the

:36:33. > :36:46.European Union. That is all the news for now. So,

:36:47. > :36:51.let's look for a moment at Northern Ireland and the crucial border

:36:52. > :36:54.between Northern Ireland and the south of Ireland. Mark Devenport is

:36:55. > :37:00.our Northern Ireland editor. What do you think the consequences of the UK

:37:01. > :37:09.leaving the EU will be for that border? Early in the campaign,

:37:10. > :37:12.people were worrying about the border, saying it would cause

:37:13. > :37:16.terrible trouble in Northern Ireland, that for years they had had

:37:17. > :37:21.an open border and now would become a closed border. What do you think?

:37:22. > :37:25.We are really in uncharted territory with this. As you said, we had a

:37:26. > :37:31.number of high-profile visitors during the campaign, the Chancellor,

:37:32. > :37:35.two former prime ministers, Sir John Major and Tony Blair, all predicting

:37:36. > :37:38.that we could have a return to border checks and that this could be

:37:39. > :37:47.extrude only interims of the progress that has been made in

:37:48. > :37:50.Northern Ireland thus far. The Secretary of State for Northern

:37:51. > :37:55.Ireland, Theresa Villiers, who was a leading campaigner for the Leave

:37:56. > :37:58.camp, insisted that the free movement deal we have in Ireland

:37:59. > :38:05.will continue, because it predates the EU. But the Irish government has

:38:06. > :38:10.seen itself as a player in this and has been lobbying openly for a

:38:11. > :38:17.Remain argument, and it will have to be handled sensitively by Dublin,

:38:18. > :38:20.which remains within the European Union and a committed member of the

:38:21. > :38:26.European Union, but now has a 300 mile border within Ireland, which

:38:27. > :38:31.will become a border between the European Union and an independent

:38:32. > :38:37.UK. But does it have to be a border with police checks at every

:38:38. > :38:40.crossing? I don't think that either the Irish government or the British

:38:41. > :38:44.government will want anything of that kind. They have put so much

:38:45. > :38:50.work into doing away with the security installations we have seen

:38:51. > :38:54.in the past. But if we have a new system of tariffs brought in, they

:38:55. > :38:58.will still have to come up with some system to check people moving goods

:38:59. > :39:01.across that border and to try and work out whether there should be

:39:02. > :39:04.checks of people moving within Ireland or whether there should be

:39:05. > :39:14.new checks on people's movement to beam Ireland and Great Britain. We

:39:15. > :39:17.are joint now -- we are joined now by the leader of the Conservative

:39:18. > :39:23.MEPs in the European Parliament, who was in favour of our leaving. You

:39:24. > :39:29.are presumably glad to be out of a job soon? I have always said that

:39:30. > :39:33.whatever the result, it was important to respect it. The British

:39:34. > :39:38.people have voted to leave. Whatever our personal views, it is important

:39:39. > :39:41.to respect that result and move on. I am going straight into meetings

:39:42. > :39:46.this morning with the leaders of other groups to talk about the next

:39:47. > :39:54.steps. And among other members of the Parliament. This is a seismic

:39:55. > :40:01.change in the balance of power in the EU with Britain's departure.

:40:02. > :40:04.What do you think the reaction of your colleagues in the parliament

:40:05. > :40:11.will be to Britain's departure from the EU? I have spoken to a number of

:40:12. > :40:15.colleagues this week in Brussels, MEPs as well as commissioners, and

:40:16. > :40:20.they have said, we would rather you don't leave, but if you do, it is

:40:21. > :40:22.important that we get a deal where are both happy with so that Britain

:40:23. > :40:29.are good neighbours rather than reluctant tenants. What do you think

:40:30. > :40:32.the first moves will be? I am going to go into meetings with other

:40:33. > :40:42.leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament to talk

:40:43. > :40:48.about how we start his negotiations. Next week, David Cameron will come

:40:49. > :40:54.out here and meet with fellow prime ministers. We will have in place the

:40:55. > :41:00.procedure. So you don't think it will be a turbulent period? You

:41:01. > :41:04.sound as though you think it will be easily accomplished. What is

:41:05. > :41:10.important is that we do put in place certainty. And it is part of my job

:41:11. > :41:14.now to go into this meeting with the other leaders of the European

:41:15. > :41:17.political groups, to feedback to Number Ten and make sure we are

:41:18. > :41:28.clear about the next steps of negotiations. Let's look at tomorrow

:41:29. > :41:38.morning's papers. The Sun, CEU later. Out, out and out. Of course,

:41:39. > :41:49.we are not yet out. We have just had an advisory referendum saying we

:41:50. > :41:58.should be out. So, see you later. We are out. Vernon, as of government,

:41:59. > :42:03.what is the rational way for this democratic decision to be

:42:04. > :42:06.incremented? Nothing much will happen immediately. The only

:42:07. > :42:09.immediate effect will be the settlement that David Cameron

:42:10. > :42:14.achieved in February will not come into play. That is the comparatively

:42:15. > :42:18.mild restrictions on bid of movement will not be applied. The next step

:42:19. > :42:23.will be for David Cameron to tell the European Council next week how

:42:24. > :42:28.Britain has voted and evoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which is

:42:29. > :42:34.the legal procedure for leaving. He will hardly have to tell them how

:42:35. > :42:38.they voted, they heard it. He will have to make a formal approach to

:42:39. > :42:43.the European Council. Until he does that, nothing can happen. There is a

:42:44. > :42:47.difficulty here, because it will take up to two years to withdraw,

:42:48. > :42:51.but I suspect most of those who voted for Brexit hoped that with one

:42:52. > :42:55.bound, they would be free and we would immediately be free of EU

:42:56. > :43:03.laws. How much discussion can take place before you invoke Article 50?

:43:04. > :43:09.Britain has had a referendum and decided to leave, can we have

:43:10. > :43:13.conversations about this before the formal procedure, or do you think it

:43:14. > :43:19.is inevitable or constitution only proper for him to immediately invoke

:43:20. > :43:23.that article? There is no time limit on the application of Article 50,

:43:24. > :43:26.but David Cameron has said he will invoke it immediately, and that

:43:27. > :43:31.would be the honourable approach to take. Britain has made a decision.

:43:32. > :43:35.It is now for the government to implement that decision and to

:43:36. > :43:40.secure withdraw with least fuss. It is worth saying that the withdrawal

:43:41. > :43:42.agreement is not the same as a trade agreement, and the Brexiteers

:43:43. > :43:46.themselves are divided on whether Britain should have a trade

:43:47. > :43:50.agreement with the European Union or not. And this raises the larger

:43:51. > :43:54.problem of whether the people in charge of this negotiation should be

:43:55. > :43:58.the people whose advice has been rejected. After all, the British

:43:59. > :44:02.people have given an instruction to the government and to Parliament to

:44:03. > :44:06.do something they don't want to do. That has not happened before in

:44:07. > :44:10.Parliament's history. If you are restricting a solicitor to do

:44:11. > :44:13.something for you, would you not rather have a solicitor who agreed

:44:14. > :44:17.with what you were doing, rather than someone who has told you not to

:44:18. > :44:21.do what you propose to do? This raises a key questions about the

:44:22. > :44:24.future of the government and the representative nature of the

:44:25. > :44:29.parliament around two thirds of whose members are opposed to Brexit.

:44:30. > :44:40.The sovereignty of the people goes much deeper. These areas are still

:44:41. > :44:55.waiting for the count to be completed. But the Leave campaign is

:44:56. > :45:03.now 400,000 short... The figure they have got to get to is 16,800,000.

:45:04. > :45:11.There are 400,000 to go. Andrew Neil joins us. Do you think there will

:45:12. > :45:16.have to be a general election because somebody has to work out who

:45:17. > :45:19.is going to negotiate with the EU, and you can't have a Prime Minister

:45:20. > :45:24.who was thinking one thing and a Chancellor who was thinking one

:45:25. > :45:30.thing constructed in negotiating something different? I don't think

:45:31. > :45:36.there are any plans for a general election. The strategy of the Brexit

:45:37. > :45:40.Tories, the people who have won, is to get into the driving seat to

:45:41. > :45:44.drive the negotiations. Although you will hear a lot of talk today about

:45:45. > :45:47.how David Cameron should stay as Prime Minister, there are plenty of

:45:48. > :45:50.Conservatives who privately think that will not happen. After a

:45:51. > :45:56.eastern and short interval, Mr Cameron will be replaced as Prime

:45:57. > :46:00.Minister -- after a decent interval. One Tory said to me, how could we

:46:01. > :46:06.let a man who got such a useless renegotiation, his words, then

:46:07. > :46:09.handle our divorce negotiations? So I think you will see a new team in

:46:10. > :46:14.place and probably a new Prime Minister as well sometime this

:46:15. > :46:16.summer. What do you think it will mean for the EU as a whole without

:46:17. > :46:29.us? Remain have said that this will be

:46:30. > :46:33.under negotiation. This comes at a time when the European Union