:00:00. > :00:44.Hello, and welcome to Politics Europe, your regular guide to the
:00:45. > :00:51.top stories in Brussels and Strasbourg. On today's programme,
:00:52. > :00:57.the bill allowing Theresa are made to trigger Article 50 is now a law.
:00:58. > :01:01.What will be the next move? How will the EU respond? The head of the EU
:01:02. > :01:09.Commission unveils his blueprint for the EU without Britain. The European
:01:10. > :01:13.Court of Justice rules companies can ban workers from wearing a
:01:14. > :01:18.headscarf. Have people given in the religious discrimination? And waking
:01:19. > :01:27.up is not always easy to do. What can Czechoslovakia's velvet divorce
:01:28. > :01:32.tell us about Brexit? All of that to come and more in the next half-hour.
:01:33. > :01:40.First, our guide to the latest from Europe in just 60 seconds. The Dutch
:01:41. > :01:46.Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, celebrated victory in his country's
:01:47. > :01:55.election, easily defeating Geert Wilders. And there was a diplomatic
:01:56. > :01:59.row with Turkey and Germany. We will never accept a comparison between
:02:00. > :02:06.the Nazis and the current government. The European Court of
:02:07. > :02:15.Human Rights ruled that Hungary unlawfully kept two migrants in a
:02:16. > :02:18.transit zone. The Spanish Foreign Minister says an independent
:02:19. > :02:22.Scotland will have to join the back of the queue for EU membership.
:02:23. > :02:27.Spain's government is worried about the separatist movement in
:02:28. > :02:34.Catalonia. The highest court in the EU rules that companies can ban
:02:35. > :02:49.scarves on employees. All employees have to dress neutrally. I am joined
:02:50. > :02:56.by the UKIP and Conservative MPs. Let us look at the EU ruling. On
:02:57. > :03:00.headscarves. What do you think about there? It brings it broadly in line
:03:01. > :03:05.with the UK government, as far as I can work out. You cannot ask a mate
:03:06. > :03:13.with one culture or at religion. You have to look at all equally. --
:03:14. > :03:17.discriminate. Theresa May said she disapproves at PMQs. She said women
:03:18. > :03:21.have a right to choose how they dress. That is not what the ruling
:03:22. > :03:28.is saying. She is saying she wants to legislate on how people are
:03:29. > :03:31.wearing their clothes. And that is right, but all should be treated
:03:32. > :03:37.equally and fairly. What do you think? We should not be under the
:03:38. > :03:42.jurisdiction of them. Yeah, I got that bit. It is fraught with
:03:43. > :03:47.difficulties. First of all, should a company have a dress code? That is
:03:48. > :03:57.not an unreasonable thing. This is difficult. It means you cannot wear
:03:58. > :04:04.skull caps, Sikh turbans, Christian crosses. What is more pertinent is
:04:05. > :04:13.that you have a covering law for face coverings. You have made an
:04:14. > :04:16.interesting point, can Sikhs not wear their turbans? Not at all. It
:04:17. > :04:24.is giving power to companies to treat all employees fairly. If it
:04:25. > :04:31.said no religious symbols at all of any kind, would that... Would the
:04:32. > :04:36.Sikhs then be in trouble? As I understand it, the turban is part of
:04:37. > :04:41.a religious manifestation for them. They have to justify very clearly
:04:42. > :04:46.why they have made this decision, and if they cannot, then they cannot
:04:47. > :04:53.impose it. An interesting development. We will see what the
:04:54. > :04:57.courts make of it. A lot of the judgement at the end said the
:04:58. > :05:02.details need to be sorted out at a national and local level. Yesterday,
:05:03. > :05:07.the bill enabling Theresa May to activate Article 50 which will allow
:05:08. > :05:14.England to leave the EU got a royal admission. That means they could
:05:15. > :05:18.trigger it at the end of the month. What will happen next? Donald Tusk
:05:19. > :05:23.said the EU will need just 48 hours to respond to the UK with draft
:05:24. > :05:28.guidelines and negotiation. He also said an extraordinary meeting of the
:05:29. > :05:33.EU 27, the EU without the United Kingdom, will take base in April,
:05:34. > :05:37.possibly May, when European leaders will decide a guideline for the
:05:38. > :05:43.negotiating mandate. Only once it is agreed will the official
:05:44. > :05:47.negotiations began, maybe sometime in June or July. Lots of elections
:05:48. > :05:52.getting in the way of this in Europe. The bill above will be top
:05:53. > :06:00.priorities. Both sides need an agreement by October, 2018. Angus
:06:01. > :06:04.Robertson said that. That will leave enough time for the UK and European
:06:05. > :06:10.parliaments to sign off on the terms of the deal. European talks often go
:06:11. > :06:15.well beyond their deadline, of course. If there is no agreement,
:06:16. > :06:26.there is a chance that Britain could, to use the vernacular, "crash
:06:27. > :06:30.out" of the EU. And this man said there was no assessment to his
:06:31. > :06:33.satisfaction. Donald Tusk addressed the issue when he addressed the
:06:34. > :06:43.European Parliament on Wednesday. I want to be clear that and no deal
:06:44. > :06:48.scenario would be bad for everyone. -- A. But above all for the UK. It
:06:49. > :06:55.would leave a number of issues unresolved. We will not be
:06:56. > :07:00.intimidated by the rats. And I can assure you they were not work. --
:07:01. > :07:04.threats. Our goal is to have a smooth divorce and a good framework
:07:05. > :07:10.for the future. And it is good to know that Prime Minister Theresa May
:07:11. > :07:16.shares this view. Are you surprised, does it matter, that the government,
:07:17. > :07:21.given that it said this could be an option, that no deal would be better
:07:22. > :07:31.than a bad deal, has no sort of game plan what no deal would mean? I...
:07:32. > :07:34.You talked about WTO terms. The big issue is about trade. There is no
:07:35. > :07:39.way you will unravel tens of thousands of EU laws before leaving.
:07:40. > :07:45.But on trade, if they just need to be made a single offer that means
:07:46. > :07:48.they could have continued tariff free trade with goods and service
:07:49. > :07:54.and capital, but no people, because of... The WTO does not govern this.
:07:55. > :07:59.No, it doesn't, but we could offer them that option. It would be in
:08:00. > :08:04.their interest to do it. This decision, they would counsel it, by
:08:05. > :08:10.the way, whether they do this, then Angela Merkel would have to talk to
:08:11. > :08:14.others to say why they were not accepting a deal. There is something
:08:15. > :08:18.that could happen in ten minutes and decided in an afternoon. Argues
:08:19. > :08:27.surprise? That is the principle, it does not tell us the consequences.
:08:28. > :08:31.-- are you surprised? Is economic modelling so discredited after what
:08:32. > :08:35.was said in the Brexit votes that it is not worth the candle? There has
:08:36. > :08:43.to be a positive and constructive case. Right now, front and for most,
:08:44. > :08:50.we must get the best deal. I think certain elements will happen faster
:08:51. > :08:53.than others. I think there will be a multitrack path for the
:08:54. > :08:57.negotiations. Will it be multitrack? Michel Barnier will head up the
:08:58. > :09:01.negotiations on the EU side. One of the things he is saying is that we
:09:02. > :09:05.need to agree on the divorce bill before we talk about the post Brexit
:09:06. > :09:10.relationship between the EU and the UK. The British government,
:09:11. > :09:15.especially David Davis, he is saying that we need to talk about both at
:09:16. > :09:18.the same time. That could be a dealbreaker if the Europeans don't
:09:19. > :09:23.agree to that. The whole thing is fraught with difficulties. The
:09:24. > :09:26.report by the economic and monetary affairs committee has put in all
:09:27. > :09:36.kinds of impediments already. They have a draft which says that the EU
:09:37. > :09:51.will have continued control. The men in charge is Mr Verhofstadt. He is
:09:52. > :09:55.not in charge. Is he not a senior observer? He will be. On behalf of
:09:56. > :10:02.the Parliament. He will have no negotiating role whatsoever. Right?
:10:03. > :10:10.Every single one of those committees is doing that. They want the hardest
:10:11. > :10:14.possible deal imaginable. There is one fair exposition of where we are
:10:15. > :10:18.and what could happen. I don't agree with all of it. But for example, one
:10:19. > :10:22.of the things it says as we are under no legal obligation to pay any
:10:23. > :10:35.money. The House of Lords said that. The Affairs Committee. Is it a
:10:36. > :10:41.dealbreaker to say we need to agree to the deal before we look at what
:10:42. > :10:44.happens afterwards? The first thing you say in a negotiation is put the
:10:45. > :10:49.hardest deal on the table. The bottom line, if it is a dealbreaker,
:10:50. > :10:56.is that the EU need the money from the UK.. Money has become a bigger
:10:57. > :11:03.issue right now. The point is that French farmers will not need money.
:11:04. > :11:09.The last thing they need is the UK walking were from the table. The
:11:10. > :11:14.French farmers will... Let me ask you, do you buy this rather
:11:15. > :11:21.sanguinary brooch that we will have, in effect, the shape of the deal by
:11:22. > :11:26.the autumn of 2018? In all of the summits I have covered, they always
:11:27. > :11:30.go down to the wire. We have already got it in a way. Theresa May will
:11:31. > :11:35.not repeal a single EU law and will not amend a single EU law before we
:11:36. > :11:42.leave. And she will incorporate the entire body of the EU law. What
:11:43. > :11:48.changes? What can be done by 2018? You will end up with a deal... I
:11:49. > :11:52.just mean a timetable, what can be done? They cannot negotiate every EU
:11:53. > :11:57.law by then. It is impossible. Do you think there should be time for
:11:58. > :12:01.the EU Parliament, the British Parliament, the Scottish Parliament,
:12:02. > :12:08.to have a say? Another element is the trade deal itself. That could
:12:09. > :12:11.take longer. The bottom line is the divorce structure and settlement and
:12:12. > :12:16.all of these elements can be mapped out. The easiest thing is what I
:12:17. > :12:21.have described. Very well. We shall see. What is the future direction of
:12:22. > :12:24.Europe if there is a future? Following the shock of Brexit and
:12:25. > :12:31.Donald Trump, will the EU come closer together, or it is the path
:12:32. > :12:34.forward more of this negotiation? We have been looking at the five
:12:35. > :12:41.options laid out in a commission white paper, as Dan Johnson has been
:12:42. > :12:45.finding out. Rome, 60 years ago, when Europe's future was first
:12:46. > :12:49.mapped out. Many of those original principles still guided today, but
:12:50. > :12:56.there have been bumps in the road. And this week, Europe's leaders
:12:57. > :12:59.started discussing a new direction. Europe's future will be one of the
:13:00. > :13:09.discussions ahead of the Rome anniversary. Some expect systemic
:13:10. > :13:14.changes. We will strengthen the role of nations in relation to the
:13:15. > :13:19.communion. But which way to turn? How best to get an agreement? And
:13:20. > :13:24.are they serious about change? I think certainly the Brexit decision
:13:25. > :13:28.has given a push in order to go in this direction. And finally it has
:13:29. > :13:31.also reached the commission and also, you know, some of the other
:13:32. > :13:36.political groups in this house, that we do need to reconsider some of the
:13:37. > :13:39.things and some of the ways that we have done politics in the past in
:13:40. > :13:43.the European Union. So, five options to be considered. Carrying on,
:13:44. > :13:48.essentially nothing changes. Cutting back to nothing but the single
:13:49. > :13:54.market, already effectively ruled out by the commission. Those who
:13:55. > :13:58.want to do more would allow closer integration for some while others
:13:59. > :14:04.moved at their own pace. They could all do less more efficiently. Or
:14:05. > :14:08.they could agree on doing much more together. The leader of Parliament's
:14:09. > :14:21.second weakest group knows what he wants. -- biggest. This is the fifth
:14:22. > :14:27.scenario. The possibility to go on together for more European
:14:28. > :14:32.integration and political integration. The majority of people
:14:33. > :14:36.understand that we need a stronger and more united Europe.
:14:37. > :14:44.It just so happens he was previously a forensic pathologist, which begs
:14:45. > :14:48.the obvious question. I don't think the Europeans made that point. There
:14:49. > :14:52.does seem to be acceptance that Europe has lost its way in recent
:14:53. > :14:57.years. At least there is now a pause to reassess and look for new ways
:14:58. > :15:00.forward. But to actually get anywhere, everyone has to agree on
:15:01. > :15:05.the best route. They are hoping to do that by the end of this year but
:15:06. > :15:09.that could be a tough ask. Jean-Claude Juncker has already
:15:10. > :15:12.discussed his plan to the German Chancellor and Spain's Prime
:15:13. > :15:20.Minister, but some euros diptych to make any of the options. --
:15:21. > :15:24.eurosceptics. These options are just one option with different degrees.
:15:25. > :15:29.The first one is to keep everything like it is and in fact we are seeing
:15:30. > :15:33.that it is not working. The second one is to focus on the market, but
:15:34. > :15:38.the commission says we don't want that option. The other is the three
:15:39. > :15:43.different degrees of integration, but the point is integration for
:15:44. > :15:48.what? And to do what? Is this the way to actually get people to love
:15:49. > :15:56.Europe again? I think that there needs to be a European movement. We
:15:57. > :16:00.as prose Europeans need to go to the streets again and say, we want this.
:16:01. > :16:03.Because in so many countries there has been his narrative of the
:16:04. > :16:08.European Union being something of the elites, being something top-down
:16:09. > :16:12.and I think we need to say, no, this is not true. The challenge is to get
:16:13. > :16:16.a new momentum and get back on track. All aboard! Even if we don't
:16:17. > :16:21.yet know exactly where we are heading. All except the UK, of
:16:22. > :16:24.course, whatever the new destination is Britain would be along for the
:16:25. > :16:29.ride. You would have thought the prospect
:16:30. > :16:35.of Britain leaving the EU, which is a huge historic event, whether you
:16:36. > :16:39.are for or against it. You would have thought it would concentrate
:16:40. > :16:46.minds in EU, to say, where do we go from here without Britain? But it
:16:47. > :16:50.seems to me that they are as divided as ever on the way forward, is that
:16:51. > :16:55.right? Everyone is pointing a different direction. The plan put
:16:56. > :17:00.forward by Jean-Claude Juncker was interesting. It was a magician's
:17:01. > :17:11.trick with one card sticking out. Everyone seems to like that, if they
:17:12. > :17:15.are in the fast lane. To some extent the Nordics as well. Yes, so you end
:17:16. > :17:21.up with a scenario in which those who are fast tracks see why it is
:17:22. > :17:25.important. The other thing of course is that the elections, we've just
:17:26. > :17:29.had the Dutch election, that has produced a result which I suspect
:17:30. > :17:32.will take a long while to form government now in Holland. We've got
:17:33. > :17:45.the French ones coming up and the Germans. In France that is run by Mr
:17:46. > :17:49.Macron and Germany run by Mr Schultz would have a different direction,
:17:50. > :17:53.then affronts run by Marine Le Pen or continues to be running Germany
:17:54. > :17:57.by Chancellor Merkel. Is that not right? Exactly. They can't sort this
:17:58. > :18:04.out quickly. The most sensible option will be to just concentrate
:18:05. > :18:08.on terror free trade and turning... We want free trade. I don't think we
:18:09. > :18:11.want the rest of it. They won't do that, will they? They won't.
:18:12. > :18:15.Although Jean-Claude Juncker said at the end of his speech that he
:18:16. > :18:18.wouldn't say what his preferred option was, I think most of us
:18:19. > :18:22.guessed it was option five, deep integration all-round. The elections
:18:23. > :18:28.this year are fascinating for a number of reasons, including this.
:18:29. > :18:35.Mr Macron is a strong pro European, that his approach. Mr Schultz is a
:18:36. > :18:38.strong European as well. But in Italy four out of five of the
:18:39. > :18:45.biggest parties are now against the euro. They haven't as yet had an
:18:46. > :18:51.election this year. These Europeans are a different ball game. It is
:18:52. > :18:54.quite difficult to see the way forward, with all these differences
:18:55. > :18:59.of opinion. One thing that seems to bring Europe together right now is
:19:00. > :19:03.discussing Brexit. Curiously enough a lot of these populist movements
:19:04. > :19:09.might not win elections but they are driving the debate on their side. As
:19:10. > :19:12.they did in Holland. So we will see more Eurosceptic elements being
:19:13. > :19:15.front and centre in a lot of these campaigns. The complexion of Europe
:19:16. > :19:21.will change, even if they don't win... Is it that whatever path they
:19:22. > :19:24.take, and it would be a decision because apparently we won't be
:19:25. > :19:29.there, at whatever path Europe takes is it in our interest that given
:19:30. > :19:34.that it is still our biggest market by a long way is it in our interest
:19:35. > :19:37.that it should succeed? I think it is in our interest that it doesn't
:19:38. > :19:42.go into economic meltdown, because that would be very bad for
:19:43. > :19:45.everybody. But of course there is a tremendous disaster on the horizon,
:19:46. > :19:49.which is what happens to the euro. In the report that Jean-Claude
:19:50. > :19:53.Juncker did, he said we have to do something about youth unemployment.
:19:54. > :19:58.In the second paragraph he said, we need to deepen economic monetary
:19:59. > :20:01.union is and I don't understand that one of the biggest causes of the
:20:02. > :20:04.economic problems in Europe is the European currency... He's talking
:20:05. > :20:08.about making the monetary union work more sensibly, with a proper banking
:20:09. > :20:14.union and with of payments from the rich countries. The difficulty with
:20:15. > :20:17.that, given the Dutch elections, is that performing the euro will be
:20:18. > :20:21.more difficult than ever. Absolutely. And it isn't a common
:20:22. > :20:24.problem so there isn't a common solution. There are lots of
:20:25. > :20:27.different problems in different directions, causing problems for the
:20:28. > :20:35.commissioner and all the rest. We could see more parties like Ukip.
:20:36. > :20:41.Divorces can be messy and if you fall out in a big way over the money
:20:42. > :20:45.for example it can make it very difficult to make new arrangements.
:20:46. > :20:51.How can a messy Brexit break be avoided? We have been to the former
:20:52. > :21:04.Czechoslovakia to look at what can be learned from what came to be
:21:05. > :21:09.called the Velvet Divorce. Picture this scene. New Year's Eve,
:21:10. > :21:12.1992, and this square is packed with people celebrating the end of
:21:13. > :21:20.Czechoslovakia and the birth of an independent Slovak Republic in a
:21:21. > :21:24.process known as the Mr Schulz -- 'velvet divorce', so-called because
:21:25. > :21:29.not a single shot was fired. At the castle evidence of where it all
:21:30. > :21:35.started. Signs from the protest that overthrew communism in 1989.
:21:36. > :21:41.Freedom. But the public word as involved in what happens next. The
:21:42. > :21:48.main contender here is the leader Vladimir... The Slovak nationalists
:21:49. > :21:51.was the victor in elections in 1992, and over an intense few weeks he
:21:52. > :21:57.negotiated a split with his counterpart in the richer Czech part
:21:58. > :22:01.of the country. There was no referendum and the divorce followed
:22:02. > :22:06.a simple formula. There are 10 million Czech, 5 million Slovaks,
:22:07. > :22:11.the property was divided two to one. The military was divided in the
:22:12. > :22:15.similar way. Diplomatic services in our embassies were divided very
:22:16. > :22:21.peacefully and we didn't have any border disputes. Because we always
:22:22. > :22:26.had a border between the Czech and Slovak republics, so there were no
:22:27. > :22:33.major fights. Since then, slow Bhatia has joined the EU and
:22:34. > :22:37.flourished, or has it? -- Slovakia. This woman is a member of the former
:22:38. > :22:40.Prime Minister's club with David Cameron and she says the split was
:22:41. > :22:44.not democratic, left the country briefly bankrupt and was harder than
:22:45. > :22:51.people remember. Some of the things were really sort of ten years later,
:22:52. > :22:58.not immediately, not at all. All new state institutions. The president,
:22:59. > :23:06.Parliament, government, justice, constitutional law. All institutions
:23:07. > :23:13.of controlling mechanisms. Everything! For the next generation
:23:14. > :23:24.of politicians, like the economy minister, it is all ancient history.
:23:25. > :23:31.Or geography. I think it is the best partnership. Still good friends?
:23:32. > :23:35.Still good friends. I'm not the only visitor from the UK. David Davis was
:23:36. > :23:39.in town recently as well, could he have spied any lessons for the UK's
:23:40. > :23:45.upcoming divorce? Openly, no lessons. I don't think it will be
:23:46. > :23:52.over in one or two years. The key is to maintain goodwill and maintain
:23:53. > :23:57.good relationships, where you are not playing games and tricks. It is
:23:58. > :24:01.a triumph of nationalism and not much else. The two republics go
:24:02. > :24:04.their separate ways. Watching another famous correspondent who
:24:05. > :24:08.stood on the spot, the lesson I've learned is that separating seems
:24:09. > :24:15.massive at the time but living apart last for much longer.
:24:16. > :24:20.During the Scottish referendum I did a documentary about raking up and be
:24:21. > :24:23.looked at the velvet divorce. Although they are two pretty small
:24:24. > :24:27.countries, and you would think it would be easy, it turned out there
:24:28. > :24:32.were many treaties that had to be done. Raking up is hard to do. Yes,
:24:33. > :24:38.but the lesson is, if you make the decision to go and saw the details
:24:39. > :24:42.out afterwards... That's not really the government's position. The
:24:43. > :24:52.British government's position... It might not make sense. Before we go,
:24:53. > :24:55.we want to see what it means. Other things actually involve us building
:24:56. > :25:01.something fresh. There are couple of elements to this. I believe we can
:25:02. > :25:07.do that if we both enter the discussions in a right frame of
:25:08. > :25:15.mind. Can you look to negotiations in which there is no victor? Can
:25:16. > :25:19.that be done? We can make them an offer they can't refuse and then we
:25:20. > :25:23.all benefit and that seems to be the biggest issue. It would be immensely
:25:24. > :25:28.difficult. Immigration is the next biggest problem. It can be done, we
:25:29. > :25:31.have to keep focused on the outcome and that's a good deal for both
:25:32. > :25:34.sides and that's what people want. Whatever the politicians want
:25:35. > :25:42.remains to seen. We shall see. It will be an interesting time. Thank
:25:43. > :25:44.you both. That's it from Politics Europe. I hope you can join me for
:25:45. > :25:46.the next