:00:00. > :00:00.set of negotiations between the UK and Scottish Government. As of now,
:00:00. > :00:07.no sign particularly of a deal emerging. We shall see. That is the
:00:08. > :00:09.end of coverage here from First Minister's Questions. Time to hand
:00:10. > :00:18.you over to The Daily Politics. was that 1983 general election. If
:00:19. > :00:22.you recall - I'm sure you do, Andrew, although not all your
:00:23. > :00:27.listeners will - it was Enoch Powell during the election campaign who
:00:28. > :00:31.said, "We have now been in the European Community for ten years,
:00:32. > :00:34.increasingly our economy and society, everything is
:00:35. > :00:37.increasingly our economy and emmeshed, if we don't leave now, it
:00:38. > :00:41.is too late, it is over, we are then in there forever." That was very
:00:42. > :00:46.much the pitch on which the Labour Party, unsuccessfully fought the
:00:47. > :00:50.election. In '83 you fought with a manifesto to withdraw. The manifesto
:00:51. > :00:53.said it was incompatible with a radical, socialist agenda. Well, a
:00:54. > :00:56.will the has changed since then. Well, I don't know, you may have a
:00:57. > :00:59.leader who wants a radical, Well, I don't know, you may have a
:01:00. > :01:03.socialist agenda? What I mean is, among the things that have changed
:01:04. > :01:08.is when we were arguing we could come out and have a sustainable
:01:09. > :01:14.trading relationship, etc, we had trade links with the after
:01:15. > :01:18.countries. We still had links with the Commonwealth. All those
:01:19. > :01:23.countries, pretty much, nearly all, are in the European Union now. One
:01:24. > :01:26.of the things we said in our campaign - these six countries are
:01:27. > :01:32.not Europe. You are a bit pushed to say it is not Europe. It is so many.
:01:33. > :01:37.Speaking of Europe, we welcome a part of it, Scotlands joins us, we
:01:38. > :01:44.have been watching First Minister questions. We are talking Europe
:01:45. > :01:51.with Margaret Becker, the former Labour Defence Secretary. Are we to
:01:52. > :01:56.be suspicious about how enthusiastic that Mr Jeremy Corbyn and Mr
:01:57. > :02:00.McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor are aboutp Euro-scepticism? I don't
:02:01. > :02:03.think so. The hard left of the Labour Party has always been anti-EU
:02:04. > :02:10.at least and very eurosceptic at most. Well, I think once you start
:02:11. > :02:14.to really look at the issues, in a perhaps a way that not everybody on
:02:15. > :02:17.the hard left has done before, you begin to realise what a difference
:02:18. > :02:21.it would make and the fact that there were very strong rumour that
:02:22. > :02:26.is our present government wanted to unpin some of that social Europe
:02:27. > :02:31.that Jacques delower talked about, underpin it, it destroy it. Unpick
:02:32. > :02:35.It, that I think, again, confirmed to people in our party that, yes,
:02:36. > :02:39.this is actually, with all its faults and all the need for reform
:02:40. > :02:44.there is, this is where we should be. And you would vote to stay in,
:02:45. > :02:49.even if Mr Cameron had achieved nothing? Many people don't think he
:02:50. > :02:52.has achieved a lot. But even if he had achieved nothing. Even if he
:02:53. > :02:55.said after the election - right let's have a referendum now on our
:02:56. > :03:01.existing terms of membership, you would vote to stay? I probably
:03:02. > :03:04.would. Shrimp - not because I'm a Europe fanatic, but because the
:03:05. > :03:09.alternatives are so undesirable. I don't think there is. There is so
:03:10. > :03:13.much dishonesty. All this talk about how we stop free movement of Labour.
:03:14. > :03:17.There is no country that trades with the European Union that doesn't have
:03:18. > :03:21.to abide by the free movement of Labour. Well there are a lot of
:03:22. > :03:23.countries with free trade arrangements with Europe and they
:03:24. > :03:27.don't have free movement of people Nothing of the significant players
:03:28. > :03:31.around like Norway or Switzerland, with whom we are always compared.
:03:32. > :03:35.Canada? Well, that's rather a separate issue. It is a free trade
:03:36. > :03:39.arrangement They are not in our neck of the woods, so to speak. Also, it
:03:40. > :03:44.leaves out of consideration how, if we vote to come out, how the rest of
:03:45. > :03:49.Europe is going to feel to us? Are they going to feel warm and generous
:03:50. > :03:53.and - yes, OK let's give you a more preferential trading arrangement. I
:03:54. > :03:59.suspect not. Time will tell, depending on how we vote.
:04:00. > :04:00.Now last month Labour published Margaret's long-awaited report
:04:01. > :04:03.into why the party lost last year's General Election.
:04:04. > :04:05.But one Labour pollster who carried out research for the report wasn't
:04:06. > :04:11.Here's what Deborah Mattinson told the Sunday Politics last month.
:04:12. > :04:18.I would say that my conclusions were very different from Margaret
:04:19. > :04:21.Beckett's. I did brief Margaret Beckett so, I was somewhat
:04:22. > :04:28.disappointed not to see some of that reflected back. Yes, I think she
:04:29. > :04:32.picked up on the economy. But there was actually no analysis - it's
:04:33. > :04:36.reduced down effectively to one Bullet point in the report. Quite
:04:37. > :04:41.apologetic. Lots of defensive stuff in there but nothing that actually,
:04:42. > :04:45.really, I felt shone a light on what had gone wrong. I think it was a
:04:46. > :04:49.white wash. I think it was a massive, missed opportunity. So,
:04:50. > :04:54.Deborah Mattinson calls your report a white wash. What is your response?
:04:55. > :04:58.Well I'm sorry I have a lot of respect for Deborah who has done a
:04:59. > :05:02.lot of good work for the Labour Party in her time but I thought it
:05:03. > :05:06.was a rather silly thing to say, to be perfectly frank. By the way, the
:05:07. > :05:09.work she did was not commissioned for our task force, it was
:05:10. > :05:14.commissioned separately for Harriet Harman as something to inform her
:05:15. > :05:18.period of leadership. But, yes, we were briefed about it. What hasn't
:05:19. > :05:23.come out in these conversations is it was actually quite a restricted
:05:24. > :05:26.group of people. Deborah herself acknowledged that when she briefed
:05:27. > :05:31.us. It was a restricted tight group of people she bass talking to. The
:05:32. > :05:36.reason we were briefed about it shall she was talking to. The reason
:05:37. > :05:40.we were briefed was because I asked what information we could have that
:05:41. > :05:44.could come in from the general public, rather than from around the
:05:45. > :05:48.party or professional pollsters. What is there if anything that could
:05:49. > :05:54.tell us where the general public were coming from. All this was was
:05:55. > :05:58.this one, set of ideas, no, it was comments, really, but, from, as I
:05:59. > :06:03.say a Retallick stricted single group. Only -- a really restricted
:06:04. > :06:08.single group. Only because there was no money to do more. You didn't
:06:09. > :06:13.criticise the Labour leader, you called the manifesto an impressive
:06:14. > :06:17.document you blamed the Tories, the SNP, you blamed the media, naturally
:06:18. > :06:22.t didn't seem to be Labour's fault. When you see that, it does seem to
:06:23. > :06:25.be a white wash I don't think that's what the report did say. There are
:06:26. > :06:28.two groups of people who have responded to the report, one is a
:06:29. > :06:33.group that approached it with a relatively open mind and another is
:06:34. > :06:37.a group that approached it in their own various ways with axes ready to
:06:38. > :06:40.grind. I didn't ignore the fact of some of the things that the
:06:41. > :06:44.Conservatives had done, some of the ways they had played T I didn't
:06:45. > :06:48.ignore some of the other players, I touched on the issue of the media. I
:06:49. > :06:53.could have written a back about that, I didn't, I touched on T I did
:06:54. > :06:58.not excuse - I said, "We failed." Our job was to try to create trust
:06:59. > :07:01.in our economic policy, in our approach on immigration, in our
:07:02. > :07:07.approach on welfare and we failed. Did you speak to Ed Miliband for the
:07:08. > :07:12.report? Yes. Did you tone it down a bit as a result? You were very kind
:07:13. > :07:16.to him. I know a lot of people will disagree. You may be one of them.
:07:17. > :07:20.But what I said about Ed Miliband's leadership is what I believe and had
:07:21. > :07:25.believed all the way through. I didn't tone it down out of kindness.
:07:26. > :07:30.I thought Ed did a much better job than he was given credit for. If I
:07:31. > :07:34.can say to you, one of the things that I think people who are critical
:07:35. > :07:38.are overlooking, who the report was for and what it had to take into
:07:39. > :07:41.account. There is a sense in which we all know why we lost the
:07:42. > :07:45.election, everybody knows that, because of the issues we didn't get
:07:46. > :07:49.trust on but one of the things that certainly people in the Labour Party
:07:50. > :07:54.wanted to know is - but why did we do well in some parts of the country
:07:55. > :07:57.and not in others? What happened with the opinion polls? Why did they
:07:58. > :08:00.mislead us? People wanted the answers to those questions as well
:08:01. > :08:03.and that's what we tried to do. Well you cite reasons to be positive
:08:04. > :08:07.about Labour now, including Jeremy Corbyn, as one of the reasons to be
:08:08. > :08:12.positive. So, do you no longer regard yourself as a moron, your
:08:13. > :08:18.words, not mine, for nominating Mr Jeremy Corbyn? It wasn't my word it
:08:19. > :08:24.was John - I have forgotten his name, somebody who worked in number
:08:25. > :08:30.ten, he said it, I referred to it, in a radio interview, he said t and
:08:31. > :08:35.I said I'm one of them. I'm not resiling from that. Are you, or are
:08:36. > :08:39.you not? I didn't intend, Jeremy, to have a serious chance of being the
:08:40. > :08:44.leader when I nominated him. I have been quite open about that, there is
:08:45. > :08:48.no point in pretending. He has been elected overwhelmingly. My hope, if
:08:49. > :08:52.you like, prayer, is that you can do the same miracle with the public as
:08:53. > :08:58.he managed to do with members of the Labour Party. Do you think that will
:08:59. > :09:02.require a miracle? Neither you or eye could have predicted it. No, not
:09:03. > :09:06.at all. Not even Mr Jeremy Corbyn could have predicted it.
:09:07. > :09:08.Let's return to our main story - the EU referendum.
:09:09. > :09:15.We will be hearing a lot about it between now and when we think the
:09:16. > :09:17.referendum will be, the end of June, possibly.
:09:18. > :09:19.David Cameron admitted yesterday that the draft deal on the UK's
:09:20. > :09:21.membership of the EU is "not perfect".
:09:22. > :09:24.But he added that Britain's position would be stronger and better
:09:25. > :09:28.Not so, say his critics, who argue that Britain will be
:09:29. > :09:32.Among them is Conservative MP, David Davis, who has been giving
:09:33. > :09:37.The thin gruel has been further watered down,
:09:38. > :09:41.My right honourable friend has a fortnight, I think,
:09:42. > :09:46.in which to salvage his reputation as a negotiator.
:09:47. > :09:49.This is a process and he might not get what he wants.
:09:50. > :09:53.Now I understand he won't able to come to Manchester
:09:54. > :09:55.because he is still in the negotiations,
:09:56. > :09:59.but could he come on February 19th to our Go conference then,
:10:00. > :10:03.if he doesn't get what he wants and would it be possible for me
:10:04. > :10:07.to drop off at tie at Downing Street for him?
:10:08. > :10:11.My honourable friend is always very generous with his time,
:10:12. > :10:15.with his advice and now also with his clothing.
:10:16. > :10:21.I feel the blazer is soon to follow...
:10:22. > :10:24.I won't be able to come, I don't think on February 19th.
:10:25. > :10:27.I hope I will still be in the thick of negotiations but I of course
:10:28. > :10:33.will report back to this House and give the results.
:10:34. > :10:39.That was the Prime Minister. Let's speak it David Davis who joins us
:10:40. > :10:44.now. So summarise for us what would
:10:45. > :10:51.Britain's position be outside the EU? Well, it looks, I spent this
:10:52. > :10:55.morning giving a great - long lecture on the current benefits and
:10:56. > :11:00.what we could get outside. We would be better off in terms of global
:11:01. > :11:03.trade. We can do greater trade deals than the European Union does on our
:11:04. > :11:07.bha. We would not lose anything in temples our access to the European
:11:08. > :11:14.markets. Apart from anything else, the German car industry alone would
:11:15. > :11:23.have a $16 billion market put at risk and Merkel, politicians would
:11:24. > :11:25.not allow that. There is a very not easy but straightforward
:11:26. > :11:30.negotiation. You think we would get the advantages and pay no price for
:11:31. > :11:34.that access? The only area where it won't work is on agriculture where
:11:35. > :11:36.we would have to have some particular deal and subsidise
:11:37. > :11:41.British farming in a free market position. Other than that, it is
:11:42. > :11:44.pretty straight - it is pretty clear that the end game would be a free
:11:45. > :11:48.market arrangement. Just as they have just struck with Canada. They
:11:49. > :11:52.have just - Canada is a famously free market, world market. I used to
:11:53. > :11:56.work in Canada, you buy sugar in Canada, it is world market sugar,
:11:57. > :12:00.everything is world market. They have struck it with Canada. If they
:12:01. > :12:08.When you talk about the single anybody.
:12:09. > :12:10.When you talk about the single market you are talking about
:12:11. > :12:18.manufactured products and not services. 70% of our GDP is
:12:19. > :12:21.services. It does not follow that is Europe widens and deepens the single
:12:22. > :12:30.market that our services would get the same access as if we were
:12:31. > :12:35.inside. That is right if we ... There is not really a single market
:12:36. > :12:40.in services now. When the EU does free trade agreements with the rest
:12:41. > :12:47.of the world, 20 odd agreements, in only six of them were services
:12:48. > :12:51.mentioned. If we did our own they would the mentioned every time,
:12:52. > :12:58.banking will be left out completely because of the sensitivities in
:12:59. > :13:03.Europe. If we did a TTIP ourselves it would be in. There are balances
:13:04. > :13:07.and they look squarely in favour... So we would not have too continue
:13:08. > :13:18.with the free movement of people in the single market? We are talking
:13:19. > :13:22.after a Brexit referendum. Several million votes will be about
:13:23. > :13:26.migration so no government could offer anything on free movement,
:13:27. > :13:31.they would need absolute governmental control of borders. The
:13:32. > :13:33.Europeans understand that and at the end of the day European
:13:34. > :13:38.negotiations, I have been there and done it, are about national
:13:39. > :13:44.interest. No national government, Angela Merkel, they are not going to
:13:45. > :13:49.give up the interests of their major industries to promote the European
:13:50. > :13:54.ideal. That may be logical. It's also political. What about the point
:13:55. > :13:58.Margaret Beckett was making earlier? Europe could be so angry as a result
:13:59. > :14:03.of us leaving that they may not be inclined to be as generous with the
:14:04. > :14:14.single market as you think. There could be an element of Britain
:14:15. > :14:18.leaving and not suffering, getting the benefits without having to sit
:14:19. > :14:23.in the European Parliament and on the European Council, others may
:14:24. > :14:27.follow. So they will be tougher on us. That bit is certainly true but
:14:28. > :14:31.judging from history what normally happens is that if we have Brexit
:14:32. > :14:38.there will be three months of screaming and shouting and threats
:14:39. > :14:42.and then they calmed down. The day after Brexit happens the Chief
:14:43. > :14:52.Executive 's dogs barking, BMW, Audi and Mercedes -- of Volkswagen. They
:14:53. > :14:59.would be queueing up saying that we have do have access for the 16
:15:00. > :15:04.billion market. What do you say to that? It is pie in the sky, frankly.
:15:05. > :15:09.I know David was the Europe minister at one time but I have had a bit of
:15:10. > :15:14.experience myself over something like ten or 11 years of intense
:15:15. > :15:22.negotiation on agriculture and climate change. I just think, if I
:15:23. > :15:30.can say so with some modesty I pride myself on my negotiation track
:15:31. > :15:37.record. The risks are huge and the certainties are non-. What's
:15:38. > :15:42.interesting in the last decade, people always say this will give us
:15:43. > :15:48.huge leveraged. If you look at the way we are treated, we lose twice as
:15:49. > :15:52.many votes as anyone in Europe. Just now, David Cameron has asked for a
:15:53. > :15:57.really trivial set of demands and haven't even been given them. If you
:15:58. > :16:00.look at something really important like the free trade agreements that
:16:01. > :16:04.Europe strikes with other countries and areas of the world, we lose out
:16:05. > :16:10.in two thirds of them and that is how much influence we have in Europe
:16:11. > :16:14.now. We do better. If you want to go down this road you need someone
:16:15. > :16:19.strong to sell the message and it looks as though it won't be Theresa
:16:20. > :16:27.May leading believing campaign? That is up to Teresa. I have no idea.
:16:28. > :16:31.Boris Johnson? You would need to get Boris to answer that question. But
:16:32. > :16:37.you speak to these people all the time. To be honest I don't think it
:16:38. > :16:41.matters that much, beyond the M25 what matters is this, what will this
:16:42. > :16:50.do for the 3 million jobs that get thrown around, my job, my welfare,
:16:51. > :17:00.my interest, and they will make that decision not on whether a blonde
:17:01. > :17:04.bombshell makes it. It's not for me. I tried. You did.
:17:05. > :17:06.Now we know that tossers are commonplace in politics,
:17:07. > :17:09.but did you know that tossing is, in fact, a vital part
:17:10. > :17:13.Yes, in Iowa earlier this week, some of the Democratic caucuses
:17:14. > :17:19.literally came down to the toss of a coin.
:17:20. > :17:21.But coin tosses have been used plenty of times in democratic
:17:22. > :17:23.elections, as have other random selection methods.
:17:24. > :17:34.In sport it is used at the start of a match and in politics it is used
:17:35. > :17:38.to end one. Coin tosses are a rare sight and only used in the event of
:17:39. > :17:45.a tie and when there are rounding errors. Monday's Iowa Democratic
:17:46. > :17:49.caucus was one of the history books as Hillary Clinton tied with her
:17:50. > :17:54.rival Bernie Sanders in six precincts so it was down to look to
:17:55. > :18:01.decide and Clinton won them all, one 64 chance. It's not the only time
:18:02. > :18:04.that the random factor has been harnessed for democracy, the mayor
:18:05. > :18:12.of a town in Peru was decided when the top two candidates tied at 236
:18:13. > :18:16.votes each, not a huge turnout. It's not always coin tossing, cutting
:18:17. > :18:22.cards and drawing lots. The legal position is that the winning coin
:18:23. > :18:28.toss is considered a vote. As it was with the Bari council elections in
:18:29. > :18:35.2011. After three and recounts it was a dead heat in Ramsbottom. They
:18:36. > :18:40.are obliged to produce a result and they were clutching at straws. It
:18:41. > :18:44.has never happened yet at a UK general election but if it does one
:18:45. > :18:46.imagines that the loss of a toss might make the defeated candidate
:18:47. > :18:50.flipping annoyed. Well joining me now from Norwich
:18:51. > :18:52.is Lana Hempsell, a Conservative councillor who actually won
:18:53. > :18:55.an election on the toss of a coin, and Rene Linstaedt, an expert
:18:56. > :19:03.on American politics Welcome. In Iowa it was necessary in
:19:04. > :19:07.some of the caucuses to flip a coin because it was a dead heat for
:19:08. > :19:12.Sanders and Clinton? Part of the problem was that in some of these
:19:13. > :19:18.caucus sites, individuals that had registered had actually left prior
:19:19. > :19:23.to being counted, and the overall number of registered caucusgoers was
:19:24. > :19:28.higher than individuals left, so not all of the delegates could be
:19:29. > :19:34.assigned to the candidates. Do we know how many ended up tossing a
:19:35. > :19:41.coin? I don't know exactly what the number is, but it happened a number
:19:42. > :19:45.of times. It's not surprising because there are such a small
:19:46. > :19:49.number of individuals involved that you would either have a situation
:19:50. > :19:54.where there is a tie or because it is so unorganised, the whole
:19:55. > :20:02.process, people would just leave. Did they have a recount? Well, yes.
:20:03. > :20:08.That is what we would do. They counted the number of individuals,
:20:09. > :20:13.and some in one of the district 's people had gone so there was nothing
:20:14. > :20:19.they could do. You won your council seat on the toss of a coin, how many
:20:20. > :20:24.recounts were there before it was decided to resolve it? We had three
:20:25. > :20:29.recounts in total so it was close on the first one and then we get three
:20:30. > :20:36.more and it was a dead heat. I see. A coin was tossed. Did you choose
:20:37. > :20:42.heads or tails? I chose heads and it was a split-second decision because
:20:43. > :20:50.the coin was already flying before I was asking if anyone got to choose
:20:51. > :20:55.and as it was landing I shouted out heads because my agent nudged me. Do
:20:56. > :21:01.you still have the coin, it must be your lucky coin? No, this was
:21:02. > :21:08.Broadlands, the coin went back into the pocket of the returning officer.
:21:09. > :21:13.He spent it on a diet Coke later on. How did your opponent feel? Did they
:21:14. > :21:19.feel cheated? Did they think in the end it was a fair way of resolving
:21:20. > :21:23.the matter? He wasn't there at the count so I have no idea why he
:21:24. > :21:28.didn't turn up, but I was there to bask in the glory all by myself. I
:21:29. > :21:33.did see him later and he did not think it was fair. And there were
:21:34. > :21:40.questions about double sided coins etc. You could have said heads I
:21:41. > :21:46.win, tails you lose and he would not object as he was not there! The New
:21:47. > :21:50.Hampshire primary, not a caucus, if it is closed their there will be
:21:51. > :21:58.recounts an recounts rather than tossing a coin. -- if it is close
:21:59. > :22:04.there. Sometimes delegates are proportionally split so you do not
:22:05. > :22:10.need to toss a coin? 49.6 versus 49.4. That is true. It can happen in
:22:11. > :22:13.smaller states where you have ties and it certainly happens all the
:22:14. > :22:22.time in smaller elections for City councils. Because you were asking
:22:23. > :22:25.earlier about elections, Federal elections in the US or national
:22:26. > :22:34.elections here, it actually hasn't happened. Who will win New Hampshire
:22:35. > :22:39.for the Democrats? It will be close. I know that. I'm not in the business
:22:40. > :22:40.of making predictions. CHUCKLES Thank you both.
:22:41. > :22:45.There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
:22:46. > :22:46.The question was what narrowly missed hitting Margaret
:22:47. > :22:57.report into why Labour lost the election?
:22:58. > :22:59.Maybe Deborah Mattinson through it! I'm just joking.
:23:00. > :23:05.So Margaret, what's the correct answer?
:23:06. > :23:11.It was a mobile phone dropped from the press gallery. By accident?
:23:12. > :23:13.Presumably. And we're joined now
:23:14. > :23:15.by the fellow who nearly Can we just clear this up, it was
:23:16. > :23:27.Tom Newton Dunn is on the phone now. Can we just clear this up, it was
:23:28. > :23:28.entirely an accident? I can confirm it was not an assassination attempt.
:23:29. > :23:34.It was entirely an accident. it was not an assassination attempt.
:23:35. > :23:37.Margaret, let me say that I'm incredibly sorry and I was utterly
:23:38. > :23:44.mortified that I almost hit you on the head. Thank you very much for
:23:45. > :23:47.taking it in the right way. To be fair it was a bipartisan attack
:23:48. > :23:54.because Cheryl Gillan was next to me. It could have gone either way.
:23:55. > :23:59.We agreed that former Cabinet ministers who are women are not
:24:00. > :24:06.popular! Did the phones survive? It fell 20 feet and it did. I won't say
:24:07. > :24:18.what type of phone it is on the BBC but it is still intact. Cheryl
:24:19. > :24:21.Gillan tweeted me to say that if I had been four inches to the left I
:24:22. > :24:27.would have killed two birds with one stone. I think we will say goodbye
:24:28. > :24:28.there. Thank you very much. Thank you to my guests especially Margaret
:24:29. > :24:40.Beckett. I will be back at you to my guests especially Margaret
:24:41. > :24:43.on BBC One for this week when we will have Michael Portillo and Alan
:24:44. > :24:49.Johnson and we may talk about Europe, who knows? I will be back
:24:50. > :24:50.also here tomorrow on BBC Two with the Daily Politics