:00:00. > :00:07.Good afternoon and welcome to a special edition
:00:08. > :00:10.The Chancellor Philip Hammond says the Scottish government
:00:11. > :00:19.is to receive millions extra every year.
:00:20. > :00:25.For the devolved administrations, our announcements today deliver
:00:26. > :00:28.additional funding of ?350 million for the Scottish Government... ?200
:00:29. > :00:33.million... Over the next hour we'll crunching
:00:34. > :00:42.the numbers and getting Here at Westminster, the Chancellor
:00:43. > :00:48.has had his say. We will be gauging reaction to his handiwork.
:00:49. > :00:50.The Chancellor Philip Hammond has delivered his first
:00:51. > :00:53.Budget to the Commons, and the first since Britain voted
:00:54. > :00:57.He told the Commons that the Budget provides a strong platform
:00:58. > :00:58.for Brexit negotiations and continues the task
:00:59. > :01:02.of getting Britain back to living within its means.
:01:03. > :01:08.There is no room for complacency and you will not find any on these
:01:09. > :01:15.benches. As we prepare for future outside the EU, we cannot rest on
:01:16. > :01:20.our past achievements. We must focus on keeping Britain at the cutting
:01:21. > :01:25.edge of the global economy. The deficit is down, but that is still
:01:26. > :01:30.too high. Employment is up but productivity remains stubbornly low.
:01:31. > :01:34.Too many of our young people are leaving formal education without the
:01:35. > :01:39.skills they need for two-day's labour market. And too many families
:01:40. > :01:45.are still feeling the squeeze, almost a decade after the crash. So
:01:46. > :01:48.our job is not done. Our task today is to take the next steps in
:01:49. > :01:49.preparing Britain for a global future.
:01:50. > :01:52.We'll look in a moment at how he might do that.
:01:53. > :01:54.But first, to help us make sense of it all,
:01:55. > :01:56.our Business Correspondent David Henderson is here.
:01:57. > :02:04.We should start off by pointing out this is the last spring budget. So
:02:05. > :02:09.it is not, and there will be run in the autumn, so it is not surprising
:02:10. > :02:16.it is a bit thin compared to what we are used to. But give us the
:02:17. > :02:20.highlights. It was a bit thin, bit of a relaxed speech, poking fun at
:02:21. > :02:26.the Labour front bench at times, making jokes. But limited in terms
:02:27. > :02:36.of its content, as steady as you go budget. When it comes to making the
:02:37. > :02:45.tough economic decisions, it'll be over the Chancellor. Much of this
:02:46. > :02:48.speech focused on England and English domestic matters, issues
:02:49. > :02:54.which are reserved to Westminster. Issues which we deal with up here
:02:55. > :03:00.through the Scottish Parliament. Things like transport and social
:03:01. > :03:03.care and suchlike, the NHS. Philip Hammond was making announcements
:03:04. > :03:09.there which relate solely to England. So the impact here is
:03:10. > :03:14.indirect, it is through the Barnett funding formula. Let's look at the
:03:15. > :03:20.key takeaway points. First, the health of the economy. The
:03:21. > :03:25.Chancellor told us the independence for budget responsibility has
:03:26. > :03:31.upgraded its forecast. You can see therefore the UK economic forecasts,
:03:32. > :03:36.up from 1.4%, as announced last August to 2%. That initial
:03:37. > :03:41.announcement was made in the depth of gloom in the impact of Brexit. A
:03:42. > :03:51.happier outlook on that front for the economy this year. Borrowing, he
:03:52. > :03:56.said would be lower than forecast. ?16.4 billion lower than forecast
:03:57. > :04:04.during that Autumn Statement in November. Again, standing at about
:04:05. > :04:09.?52 billion. So a better outlook for the economy, more taxes available
:04:10. > :04:13.for the government to spend on hospitals and schools. The end
:04:14. > :04:19.result, as he announced, will be extra spending for the devolved
:04:20. > :04:26.administrations including, he said, an extra ?350 million for Scotland.
:04:27. > :04:30.We take that to mean over the term of this Parliament, funded through
:04:31. > :04:38.the Barnett formula. He also announced a focus on the North Sea.
:04:39. > :04:42.Not much detail, he announced a review of North Sea taxes, the
:04:43. > :04:46.intention to see how companies here can be helped to recover as much oil
:04:47. > :04:51.and Gas UK is possible from the North Sea. But the one I think will
:04:52. > :04:56.generate the most political heat, already generating a lot of
:04:57. > :05:00.headlines, the impact on workers. The big story for workers,
:05:01. > :05:05.self-employed workers are facing a rise in national insurance
:05:06. > :05:10.contributions. Philip Hammond saying it was unfair that the self-employed
:05:11. > :05:15.should pay less tax than people earning the same amount of money. He
:05:16. > :05:25.said that would ultimately generate ?145 million a year for public
:05:26. > :05:30.services. It breaches their manifesto commitment? A quote from
:05:31. > :05:36.the Conservative manifesto it says... We will commit to no
:05:37. > :05:40.increases in VAT, national insurance contributions or income tax.
:05:41. > :05:44.So whatever the rights and wrongs of that policy, the issues around
:05:45. > :05:48.fairness, their opponents are accusing them of breaching their
:05:49. > :05:50.manifesto commitment. David, thank you very much indeed.
:05:51. > :05:53.Now, the Chancellor said the Budget will deliver an extra ?350 million
:05:54. > :05:55.of funding for the Scottish Government.
:05:56. > :05:57.Let's cross to Holyrood now, and our Political Editor Brian Taylor.
:05:58. > :06:11.Is this ?350 million over the terms of the parliament, ?350 million a
:06:12. > :06:16.year? I understand it is over three years but it is front-loaded with
:06:17. > :06:21.the bulk of the cash coming in the first year. It arises out of
:06:22. > :06:25.expenditure south of the border on hospitals and social care. But the
:06:26. > :06:31.Scottish Government can spend it as they wish. When the Chancellor made
:06:32. > :06:36.the announcement, you saw him waving towards the SNP benches, encouraging
:06:37. > :06:41.them to cheer. But they didn't. It isn't the role of the opposition to
:06:42. > :06:46.cheer Chancellor's budget. Few cheers coming from the Scottish
:06:47. > :06:50.Government. They point out it is over an extended period. They do
:06:51. > :06:54.welcome extra cash but it is a product of the formula, it is not a
:06:55. > :06:59.huge uplift. Be sceptical about the announcement on the North Sea. They
:07:00. > :07:04.say they have been looking for these fields to be given a tax boots. But
:07:05. > :07:09.the Chancellor has announced another review and examination of it. The
:07:10. > :07:17.money coming to Scotland is great news, aiming to the SNP should
:07:18. > :07:24.cancel their proposals on taxation. I think we will wait a long time
:07:25. > :07:29.before that happens. On this oil and gasping, there was some speculation
:07:30. > :07:38.there would be specific measures. -- gas thing. The it was expected
:07:39. > :07:42.something might actually do something, but basically they have
:07:43. > :07:46.said they will have a look at? It was expected by Scottish ministers
:07:47. > :07:50.something would be done. They said they have been calling over the last
:07:51. > :07:57.two or three budgets for action to be taken on this area to spread tax
:07:58. > :08:03.redistribution to help the smaller companies who are taking on these
:08:04. > :08:08.later fields. Good news for the oil and gas industry, potentially it is,
:08:09. > :08:13.but at the moment at this stage it is just setting up an expert review
:08:14. > :08:18.group. This is to do with keeping the oil flowing, it is not to do
:08:19. > :08:27.with getting money out of oil. I noticed hidden away in the OBR
:08:28. > :08:35.outlook, the revenue from oil is forecasted to be zero right until
:08:36. > :08:41.2022? Absolutely, it has declined. The Chancellor while announcing what
:08:42. > :08:45.could be benefits to the North Sea, there is a political underlying
:08:46. > :08:50.message as well, which is to save these measures are only required
:08:51. > :08:55.because the take from the North Sea is declining so sharply. In the past
:08:56. > :08:58.year and the past decade, the past several decades, it has been an
:08:59. > :09:03.issue of contention in Scotland with regard to the economy and also with
:09:04. > :09:06.regard to the prospects of the Scottish economy and their
:09:07. > :09:09.independence. Thank you for joining us this afternoon.
:09:10. > :09:12.Well, with me in the studio this afternoon are two Budget experts.
:09:13. > :09:14.Ray Perman is Director of the David Hume Insititute,
:09:15. > :09:17.and Dr Angela O'Hagan is a lecturer in social and public policy
:09:18. > :09:31.Let's take a look at something we were talking about earlier. He has
:09:32. > :09:40.increased growth forecast but it goes back to 1.6, comes back up to
:09:41. > :09:45.2% by 2020. All of this is lower than the normal, the shadow of the
:09:46. > :09:53.financial crash is still over us? The world changed in 2008. For over
:09:54. > :09:59.30 years before that we were average 2.5% growth for the UK. Since 2008
:10:00. > :10:06.that has taken a knock. Getting back to 2% this year is pretty good going
:10:07. > :10:10.in the present circumstances. But as the OBR was forecasting, that will
:10:11. > :10:14.fall and will get back to 2% until 2020. We assume this is the shadow
:10:15. > :10:30.of recession? People were surprised Brexit didn't
:10:31. > :10:37.have an immediate effect after the vote last year. We are still members
:10:38. > :10:40.of the EU, but it will have an effect on the economy. The
:10:41. > :10:44.Chancellor has foreseen that and it will come in the next five years.
:10:45. > :10:49.The paradox at the moment is business investment is due to fall,
:10:50. > :10:56.perhaps even falling at the moment, but as consumers we are out spending
:10:57. > :10:59.like there is no tomorrow and it is keeping the economy going?
:11:00. > :11:04.Unfortunately we are all borrowing like there's no tomorrow, that
:11:05. > :11:09.cannot go on for ever so consumer spending will decline. Angela, can
:11:10. > :11:14.you pick up on this thing about the self-employed. It is being presented
:11:15. > :11:16.as an anomaly that there is a difference in the national insurance
:11:17. > :11:23.rates for self-employed and be employed. The points you are making
:11:24. > :11:28.is, a lot of the people are counted as self-employed are only there
:11:29. > :11:32.because of the financial crash? Yes, we were hearing about the resilience
:11:33. > :11:38.of the economy, but who is paying for that resilience? It is low paid
:11:39. > :11:42.workers. Many of those low-paid workers are among the newly created
:11:43. > :11:46.self-employed, which we have seen huge reforms and restructuring in
:11:47. > :11:50.the labour market since the recession and since the crash of
:11:51. > :11:57.almost ten years ago. One of the consequences of that is the
:11:58. > :12:01.combining of those effects with welfare reform and sanctions and the
:12:02. > :12:06.punitive system there is now has forced the lot of people into
:12:07. > :12:10.self-employment. So your point would be, we still have a mental image of
:12:11. > :12:16.self-employed people, quite a middle-class. Not the same people
:12:17. > :12:22.who were there before 2008, this is people on low income who were driven
:12:23. > :12:25.into it by the financial crisis? As research based in Scotland is
:12:26. > :12:32.showing, a lot of those newly created self-employed people are not
:12:33. > :12:37.earning the minimum wage. A lot of them are using self-employment as
:12:38. > :12:42.opposed to benefits and benefit sanctions. We are also seeing, they
:12:43. > :12:50.are not reaching the levels of the national minimum wage, so what were
:12:51. > :12:53.the implications of setting thresholds of 16,500 B for people on
:12:54. > :12:58.low incomes and those who are just tipped over that 16,000 threshold,
:12:59. > :13:03.are seeing an increase in their contributions. The Chancellor
:13:04. > :13:10.saying, it will only be 60p a week. People are still to do the numbers
:13:11. > :13:14.on what that means. If you are just tipping into profitability in your
:13:15. > :13:18.owner occupied, sole trader capacity, you will be hit again. The
:13:19. > :13:23.biggest increase in self-employment is women leaving formal or paid
:13:24. > :13:28.employment for all sorts of reasons, and during sex discrimination. But
:13:29. > :13:37.those women are amongst those very low earners. Let's be more positive,
:13:38. > :13:42.the OBR forecast said we are over the recession but they are not
:13:43. > :13:47.forecasting a recession as a result of Brexit. The OBR figures are
:13:48. > :13:51.supposed to be independent of the government. They are showing no
:13:52. > :13:56.Brexit effect until right out until 2022?
:13:57. > :14:02.The OBR forecasts are no better than anybody else's. The economists are
:14:03. > :14:07.no better than forecasting the weather man, but actually the
:14:08. > :14:11.weatherman or improved! We can't take it as gospel. They are not
:14:12. > :14:15.forecasting that Brexit is going to push us into recession, they are
:14:16. > :14:19.forecasting that it is going to read juice growth, therefore it will
:14:20. > :14:29.reduce earnings and tax revenues. -- reduce growth. It is just forecasts,
:14:30. > :14:33.and corrected by 2020. It is corrected just before the next
:14:34. > :14:38.general election. Howard Davies say that, they are completely
:14:39. > :14:44.independent! You will get a row for that. I shall next time I see him.
:14:45. > :14:49.But I think the Chancellor will be clinging to that. The Chancellor
:14:50. > :14:53.said he will build up reserves against Brexit uncertainty. Now,
:14:54. > :14:57.Britain doesn't have reserves. What we have is borrowing, we have that.
:14:58. > :15:01.What he is doing is borrowing less at the moment so that he can borrow
:15:02. > :15:06.more later, and that is how he is going to get us through the problems
:15:07. > :15:07.of Brexit. Should they arise. We will be back with both of you later
:15:08. > :15:08.on. Let's get reaction to
:15:09. > :15:10.Philip Hammond's Budget speech from the Scottish Secretary David
:15:11. > :15:20.Mundell. David, first of all, this ?350
:15:21. > :15:27.million, can you just clarify, that's over three years, is it? Yes,
:15:28. > :15:32.it is. It is through the 2021. It involves a combination of capital
:15:33. > :15:35.and revenue. But combined with the ?800 million that came with the
:15:36. > :15:39.Autumn Statement, it means that the Scottish Government have over ?1
:15:40. > :15:44.billion extra which they didn't anticipate having this time last
:15:45. > :15:48.year. So it is additional money, it means that there are not excuses for
:15:49. > :15:53.not doing the things that need to be done in Scotland in relation to
:15:54. > :15:56.health and education, in relation to bring forward significant capital
:15:57. > :16:01.projects. And with the powers which made this year's Scottish Budget so
:16:02. > :16:05.historic and significant, the Scottish Government have the
:16:06. > :16:10.resources available to do what they say they need to do in Scotland.
:16:11. > :16:14.Now, we have been hearing from Angela O'Hagan how a lot of people,
:16:15. > :16:19.not just in Scotland but throughout the UK, who are now self-employed
:16:20. > :16:26.Afri ended up being there because of the recession, they have been driven
:16:27. > :16:28.out of the labour force. How can you justify increasing National
:16:29. > :16:32.Insurance contributions for groups of people, some of whom are only
:16:33. > :16:37.there as a result of the recession? Firstly, as your piece did
:16:38. > :16:42.acknowledge, nobody earning less than ?16,500 will be affected by
:16:43. > :16:46.these measures. But the underlying approach, which Philip Hammond has
:16:47. > :16:49.that outcome is one of fairness. People who are currently
:16:50. > :16:53.self-employed are often paid thousands of pounds less in National
:16:54. > :16:58.Insurance companies than people doing the same job who are employed.
:16:59. > :17:01.In the past, there were different arrangements for pensions and other
:17:02. > :17:08.benefits if you are self-employed compared to if you were on the PAYE
:17:09. > :17:13.system. That is not the case as much now. And therefore it is a measure
:17:14. > :17:19.that is based on treating people who are doing the same job, getting the
:17:20. > :17:21.same income, fairly. Oil and gas, there were hopes amongst some in the
:17:22. > :17:27.Scottish Government that measures would be announced to help the
:17:28. > :17:32.particular tax issues of smaller companies taking over fields which
:17:33. > :17:36.are depleted. Instead there's a review. How serious is that review?
:17:37. > :17:41.Will there be specific measures coming from it, and when will that
:17:42. > :17:49.be? It is a very serious attempt to deal with the issue of smaller
:17:50. > :17:52.fields with the decommissioning in the North Sea. It is bringing
:17:53. > :17:59.forward a significant group of experts to look at how we can
:18:00. > :18:02.maximise the take in terms of oil. Obviously from a Government point of
:18:03. > :18:07.view in terms, you know, of ensuring that the industry can go on for as
:18:08. > :18:12.long as is possible in the North Sea. And of course we will act on
:18:13. > :18:18.the recommendations. We already took forward very significantly with the
:18:19. > :18:22.?2.3 billion package that there has been over the last couple of years.
:18:23. > :18:26.The recommendations and lobbying that we have had from the industry.
:18:27. > :18:30.This is a really important industry, not just for Scotland, for the whole
:18:31. > :18:36.of the UK, and we take it very, row seriously. What is the timescale for
:18:37. > :18:39.this? If there are people running some of these small companies, it is
:18:40. > :18:43.because they haven't paid a lot of tax in the past so they don't get
:18:44. > :18:47.the full effect of tax benefits when it comes to decommissioning, and you
:18:48. > :18:51.want to do something about that. If they are watching this now I'm
:18:52. > :18:55.thinking, well, when we going to see specific measures announced? When is
:18:56. > :19:00.that going to be? There is no reason for measures that are recommended to
:19:01. > :19:07.be adopted as we move forward. We have heard from the Chancellor both
:19:08. > :19:10.in the autumn and now that the main fiscal event will now be the autumn
:19:11. > :19:14.Budget, as the Budget will be in the autumn. So there is no reason why
:19:15. > :19:18.measures that come forward from this group cannot be brought forward in
:19:19. > :19:23.this Budget. There is no reason why they cannot be brought forward
:19:24. > :19:27.before them, actually, if specific things are identified... Before the
:19:28. > :19:30.Budget or in the Budget? I don't see any reason why they can't be brought
:19:31. > :19:34.forward before the Budget if there are specific things that require to
:19:35. > :19:39.be done can be identified and agreed upon. One of the problems with the
:19:40. > :19:44.new measures on National Insurance for the self-employed is that you
:19:45. > :19:50.promised in your election manifesto not to do this. What the election
:19:51. > :19:58.manifesto referenced was income tax and class one National Insurance
:19:59. > :20:01.contributions. This relates to class or National Insurance contributions.
:20:02. > :20:05.I don't want to get into a technical argument. We should read
:20:06. > :20:09.Conservative manifesto is with a magnifying glass, should we? What
:20:10. > :20:13.the manifesto was quite clear about was, in relation to income tax and
:20:14. > :20:17.in relation to National Insurance contributions within the class one,
:20:18. > :20:21.within the PAYE system more generally. This relates to class
:20:22. > :20:26.four National Insurance companies, it has affected the self-employed
:20:27. > :20:30.and we have set out the basis for doing that as fairness to ensure
:20:31. > :20:33.that people doing the same job, getting roughly the same income and
:20:34. > :20:40.doing the same. You will still be at use of breaking a manifesto pledge.
:20:41. > :20:46.So you will store but used. What pledge would you like the manifesto
:20:47. > :20:53.-- the SNP to break in their manifesto? I move forward in hope
:20:54. > :20:57.rather than expectation on that, I think that it is a demonstration,
:20:58. > :21:02.the benefits that Scotland gets from being part of the UK, I want to see
:21:03. > :21:06.that money used to improve services. You have an open invitation to say
:21:07. > :21:11.they should stop talking about another referendum, and you didn't
:21:12. > :21:16.take it! We were referencing the Budget, Gordon. Of course I take any
:21:17. > :21:19.opportunity to say to take the threat of another independence
:21:20. > :21:21.referendum of the table. On a second prompting, thank you, David!
:21:22. > :21:23.Let's get some economic analysis now.
:21:24. > :21:25.Professor Graeme Roy from the Fraser of Allander Institute
:21:26. > :21:29.at the University of Strathclyde has been crunching the numbers.
:21:30. > :21:36.What flies out at you, Graeme? A couple of things are quite
:21:37. > :21:40.interesting. Firstly, the big forecast upward revision for this
:21:41. > :21:45.year is growth in 2017 up to 2%. That essentially the ABI have taken
:21:46. > :21:48.up of economic performance over the next few years. Essentially the
:21:49. > :21:52.economy end up actually back where we thought it was in the Autumn
:21:53. > :21:56.Statement. So there is a bit more timing rather than actually any
:21:57. > :22:01.strength in the overall economy. Do you think that reflects Brexit or
:22:02. > :22:05.your expectations about Brexit? Two things, if you go back to the
:22:06. > :22:08.forecast before Brexit, even under the OBR numbers predicted it was
:22:09. > :22:14.smaller than it was prior to the referendum. The Brexit effect is
:22:15. > :22:18.still there. Where we have done what we did previously, we have not
:22:19. > :22:21.forecast much further wrote about what the Brexit situation could look
:22:22. > :22:26.like, what the trade relationships could be like for the UK once
:22:27. > :22:32.Article 50 is triggered. So there is a bit of almost Wei Tan see, because
:22:33. > :22:37.we don't actually yet know what the settlement will be -- wait and see.
:22:38. > :22:42.For people confuse like I am about some of this stuff, is it that no
:22:43. > :22:45.matter how important Europe is, trade just isn't that important, and
:22:46. > :22:51.it's going to make a huge difference to the GDP? You have to put it in
:22:52. > :22:55.context. The vast majority of economic output a country produces
:22:56. > :22:58.is produced domestic Rhiannon sold domestic league, and also other
:22:59. > :23:04.trading partners that we have -- domestic output is sold domestic
:23:05. > :23:08.league. It is a damper on growth in the long run, what that might mean
:23:09. > :23:11.for things like productivity and skull migration etc. It is more that
:23:12. > :23:18.the economy would be small in the future. A little bit smaller because
:23:19. > :23:22.of that affects, but the long-term effects, as you say, could be, how
:23:23. > :23:27.does limiting immigration affect productivity in the economy, for
:23:28. > :23:31.example, how do tariffs affect not just what we pay for things but the
:23:32. > :23:34.impulse to British industry. Very much so. You see that also, where
:23:35. > :23:38.that comes through is in the borrowing figures for the next three
:23:39. > :23:42.years as well. Again he has been able to rely on the fact that the
:23:43. > :23:46.borrowing figures look better this year than they did in November.
:23:47. > :23:50.Looking into what happens at the end of the decade, you are back exactly
:23:51. > :23:56.where the OBR were forecasting back in November. There is an uplift this
:23:57. > :23:59.year, but a substantial increase in borrowing predicted in November.
:24:00. > :24:02.Brexit is still there, and the Government will be borrowing much
:24:03. > :24:07.more over the next few years than we thought they were before the
:24:08. > :24:11.referendum. Which is why balancing the Budget now seems to have been
:24:12. > :24:14.officially put off into the never never. Yes, they had been thinking
:24:15. > :24:21.about, George Osborne had been planning for a surplus of ?10
:24:22. > :24:25.billion by 2020, at the Government will still be borrowing. But they
:24:26. > :24:29.will not be balancing even in the next Parliament. Exactly, further
:24:30. > :24:33.consolidation or started is going to continue well into the 2020s. Oil
:24:34. > :24:40.and gas, it is difficult talking about, he says some measures have
:24:41. > :24:44.come forward even before the Budget. In terms of revenues, though, the
:24:45. > :24:48.figures showed as a percentage of GDP, they are not expecting any
:24:49. > :24:54.revenues right until the end of the forecast period, 2022. They are
:24:55. > :25:01.expecting some revenues. ?1 billion, that is what they think will happen
:25:02. > :25:06.in the 20s. In contrast to previous years where you have oil revenues of
:25:07. > :25:10.?12 billion, you are really looking at essentially North Sea revenues no
:25:11. > :25:15.longer really making a significant fiscal contribution to the UK
:25:16. > :25:20.economy. A percentage of GDP evens out. And also there are costs. Some
:25:21. > :25:23.of the big petroleum revenue tax receipts or in the negative, that
:25:24. > :25:29.presumably reflects the commissioning, does it? Protected
:25:30. > :25:33.revenues will actually be negative in 2016-17. And the rise becomes
:25:34. > :25:36.more positive in the next few years. You are talking about hundreds of
:25:37. > :25:42.millions of pounds rather than billions of pounds. The basic point
:25:43. > :25:45.about this, though, is that in any debate over Scotland, whether it
:25:46. > :25:48.stays part of the UK or whether it is independent, what it would have
:25:49. > :25:52.money to spend on, it is not just that the oil prices have fallen a
:25:53. > :26:01.bit. Because of decommissioning and the running out in the North Sea,
:26:02. > :26:03.North Sea revenues are never going to be a particularly important
:26:04. > :26:06.factor any more, they? Effectively, take them out of the debate. It is
:26:07. > :26:08.highly unlikely you will get significant revenues now from the
:26:09. > :26:11.North Sea. You are right, prices might recover, they might take a
:26:12. > :26:15.while to recover, but you are looking up the field entering really
:26:16. > :26:18.quite mature stage. So the actual production levels coming out are
:26:19. > :26:22.actually going to be relatively smaller, can the new windfall. They
:26:23. > :26:26.peaked in 1999 and have fallen since then -- continuing to fall. Once you
:26:27. > :26:31.start going to decommissioning, then you start to offset the tax revenues
:26:32. > :26:36.paid in the past, so it becomes that negative. What do you make of the
:26:37. > :26:41.lip Amman? Was he boring for Britain like he wants to do?! -- of Philip
:26:42. > :26:53.Hammond. As an economist, we are quite used to be boring! He does
:26:54. > :26:55.manage to give of this are, move on, nothing to see here. The Budget was
:26:56. > :26:57.arguably one of the most boring we have had in years. Grey, thank you
:26:58. > :26:59.very much indeed. As usual, politicians have been
:27:00. > :27:01.giving their reaction to the Budget. Our Westminster Correspondent David
:27:02. > :27:12.Porter is with one of them. I'm sorry, David is not there. Let's
:27:13. > :27:16.talk to Mike Tholen, head of upstream policy at Oil and Gas UK.
:27:17. > :27:22.I'm sure that David Polter will be with an MP later on. What do you
:27:23. > :27:26.make of the announcements on oil and gas? Were you hoping for something a
:27:27. > :27:29.little bit more definite? I think we have had the good news that the
:27:30. > :27:33.Treasury recognise the problem that we face, and it is one of trying to
:27:34. > :27:37.get the market to work really well for buying and selling of assets in
:27:38. > :27:39.the North Sea, and so from that point of view, to understand the
:27:40. > :27:44.problem and offered to help resolve it is probably the best progress we
:27:45. > :27:48.can see in this Budget. The problem is a bit technical. As I understand
:27:49. > :27:52.it, the problem is that a lot of the fields which roamed by the oil
:27:53. > :27:55.majors have been bought by small companies. They get tax relief and
:27:56. > :27:59.decommissioning, but because they haven't owned them for ever, they
:28:00. > :28:03.haven't paid a lot of tax, so there needs to be some mechanism where
:28:04. > :28:07.they can get the full benefits of taking on decommissioning, is that
:28:08. > :28:18.roughly it? Pretty much. The problem is that for many companies that have
:28:19. > :28:20.on the field for a while, they see a different value from decommissioning
:28:21. > :28:24.than the companies that might want to buy the field. What we are hoping
:28:25. > :28:26.as we can get to a point where we can resolve that and make it easier
:28:27. > :28:29.to buy and sell fields in the North Sea. Why is it advantageous to
:28:30. > :28:31.encourage buying and selling of deals? Well, like in any market or
:28:32. > :28:34.any business, you want a diversity of investors in the market trying to
:28:35. > :28:39.do a diversity of things. And also it is mature, and in many cases some
:28:40. > :28:42.of the majors are pursuing really exciting opportunities west of the
:28:43. > :28:46.Shetlands and in deep and difficult waters. And maybe smaller investors
:28:47. > :28:51.have better appetites for some of the fields and opportunities around
:28:52. > :28:55.existing fields. Why is that? Is it because they don't have to make so
:28:56. > :29:02.much money? For example, an oil field but it's one it is off running
:29:03. > :29:11.out, BP or Gel, it is been at -- peanuts for them.
:29:12. > :29:18.It is around appetite and where you can best put your resources. Some of
:29:19. > :29:25.the companies are learning how to manage oil reserves late in life and
:29:26. > :29:30.making a success out of that. I don't know if you could hear David
:29:31. > :29:37.Mundell a few minutes ago, but he said this review, there might be
:29:38. > :29:42.some actual measures that could be announced, either in the new budget
:29:43. > :29:47.date in the autumn, or he said even before that, is it something you
:29:48. > :29:51.would welcome? We would very much like the Treasury and the experts to
:29:52. > :29:57.crack on with this. It is a problem we have all known about for quite
:29:58. > :30:00.awhile. The longer we wait, you might hold deals that could shape
:30:01. > :30:06.the investment and the future the North Sea. What do you think the
:30:07. > :30:10.prospects are for activity in the North Sea over the next few years.
:30:11. > :30:15.It has been an extremely difficult period over the last couple of
:30:16. > :30:21.years, are things going to pick up or chant along at roughly the level
:30:22. > :30:27.they are now? We have seen a transformation in the North Sea over
:30:28. > :30:31.the last two years. We have seen companies raise their efficiency and
:30:32. > :30:37.competitiveness and we have seen the fruits of that starting to be
:30:38. > :30:41.delivered. We have seen production increasing by 15%. There is still a
:30:42. > :30:49.need for further activity and further investment and that is why
:30:50. > :30:53.we are looking to this Chancellor to attract investors to the North Sea.
:30:54. > :31:03.As usual, politicians have been giving their reaction to the Budget.
:31:04. > :31:10.What do you make of it? If you are one of the families who are
:31:11. > :31:15.struggling, this budget does not thing. It does not think to track
:31:16. > :31:21.all the rises of inflationary have been seeing. The price of tea and
:31:22. > :31:27.butter has gone up by 15%. This will be worse when it comes to Brexit.
:31:28. > :31:34.Why is the price of butter going to get worse as a result of Brexit? The
:31:35. > :31:39.way imports and exports work, increased tariffs, we will have less
:31:40. > :31:45.support for agriculture. We don't know any of that yet, do we? It is a
:31:46. > :31:50.pretty safe bet those things will happen. We will see installation.
:31:51. > :31:54.When people go into the supermarket, we will be spending a few quid extra
:31:55. > :32:04.every week because of the increased price of food. It has already gone
:32:05. > :32:06.up over the last three months. The Chancellor has done nothing to
:32:07. > :32:14.recognise the impact of Brexit on normal people. But the OBR is not
:32:15. > :32:19.forecasting any impacts from Brexit, and they are independent from the
:32:20. > :32:25.government. You cannot then expect the government is so things will be
:32:26. > :32:30.worse than the OBR are suggesting? Those are the GDP figures, it is the
:32:31. > :32:37.price consumers will face when they go to the shop. People don't care
:32:38. > :32:42.what the headline GDP figures are. I didn't see any, I must admit, I have
:32:43. > :32:46.had time to look at the data, but the inflation forecasts were not
:32:47. > :32:57.particularly high? Inflation has already started to bite. It is 2%,
:32:58. > :33:12.isn't it? Inflation is about 2%. Can you hear me? Our new go. Inflation
:33:13. > :33:18.is about 2%? In terms of inflation, if wages are not going, this is the
:33:19. > :33:24.worst period we have seen for 70 years. According to the Chancellor,
:33:25. > :33:30.wages are growing faster than inflation? According to the
:33:31. > :33:35.Chancellor, but people are not feeling that. If you speak to people
:33:36. > :33:39.in the street... I am sorry, you cannot say wages are declining and
:33:40. > :33:44.then say it maybe they are going up faster than inflation but people are
:33:45. > :33:51.not feeling it, it doesn't make sense. I didn't say wages were
:33:52. > :33:56.declining, I said it was the lowest period of wage growth in 70 years.
:33:57. > :34:04.The Chancellor is right, he has more people back in work and the
:34:05. > :34:08.unemployment figures have increased, but the GDP figures are not helping
:34:09. > :34:13.people at the bottom of the pile. Families will be feeling that. If
:34:14. > :34:18.you ask people how are their budgets, how are they managing? That
:34:19. > :34:22.is what they were said to, they are worrying and they cannot save and
:34:23. > :34:25.this budget has done nothing to recognise that. More money for the
:34:26. > :34:32.Scottish Government, you welcome that? It isn't really though is it?
:34:33. > :34:39.Since 2010 that 11 we have had a real terms cut of 2.9 billion and
:34:40. > :34:46.even for David Mundell to suggest we are getting 1 billion extra, it
:34:47. > :34:51.doesn't touch the sides. He suggested ?350 million extra? Sorry,
:34:52. > :34:56.I misheard him. It is a knock on effect of the Barnett formula, money
:34:57. > :35:02.we will need to spend, but nothing in comparison to ?2.9 billion. We
:35:03. > :35:06.will have to leave it there, my apologies you could not hear me. I
:35:07. > :35:12.don't know what is going on behind you, but there is an incredible
:35:13. > :35:14.racket. People concerned they are not getting their pensions, so they
:35:15. > :35:19.are here protesting. Ray Perman and Dr Angela O'Hagan
:35:20. > :35:30.are still with me. Oil and Gas UK, David Mundell said
:35:31. > :35:40.there might be action before the budget, will it be OK? I don't think
:35:41. > :35:47.it will amount to very much. We will see in the budget in November now.
:35:48. > :35:50.It is quick for the review of experts to calculate tax incentives
:35:51. > :35:57.that will make a real difference. I don't think it will amount to a huge
:35:58. > :36:01.amount. What is your take on what Kirsty Blackman was saying against
:36:02. > :36:05.incomes? Incomes at the moment I think are going up in real terms.
:36:06. > :36:09.But there has been a long period where they have been stagnating or
:36:10. > :36:15.falling, so where are we now on that front? Kirsty has just voted the ISS
:36:16. > :36:25.figures pointing to stagnation, that is not just UK, put across Europe.
:36:26. > :36:29.-- IFS. So I put two people's living standards alongside increases and
:36:30. > :36:34.costs of living. Add to the structuring and hollowing out... But
:36:35. > :36:40.that is not happening now, is it not the case real incomes are going up
:36:41. > :36:46.now? Not really, if we look at the recent public sector pay awards. We
:36:47. > :36:50.are still looking at freezes or stagnation across the public sector.
:36:51. > :36:56.Again, majority of employees are women. Add to that, the changes in
:36:57. > :37:00.employment contracts terms and conditions and so on. We are seeing
:37:01. > :37:05.an increase in flexibility in the labour market, but that means zero
:37:06. > :37:08.hours contracts, and reduction in working hours and there might be
:37:09. > :37:14.more people in employment, we have seen the figures for women's figures
:37:15. > :37:20.increase but we need to look at the character of those jobs. Precarious,
:37:21. > :37:24.low pay, low skills. The figures show incomes are rising, so you are
:37:25. > :37:29.saying it is misleading because of the composition of how this is
:37:30. > :37:34.happening? When you look at household budgets increasing as a
:37:35. > :37:39.result of wages, then what we are seeing is an increase of in work
:37:40. > :37:47.poverty. People who are working, people who have jobs are amongst
:37:48. > :37:51.those who are experiencing more poverty than previously. So we are
:37:52. > :37:58.not seeing an increase in wages that is offsetting... One glaring
:37:59. > :38:01.omission in that budget is there was some expectation the Chancellor
:38:02. > :38:07.might announce something to mitigate the freeze in benefits. Because of
:38:08. > :38:13.the just getting by people as Theresa May calls them? As far as I
:38:14. > :38:17.could see, there wasn't anything at all? A number of things that were
:38:18. > :38:22.flagged that will possibly coming in the budget that have not
:38:23. > :38:25.materialise, more for the just managing, the jams as Theresa May
:38:26. > :38:31.called them. Very little for them. The other one was the gig economy,
:38:32. > :38:36.it was flagged perhaps the Chancellor would bring in some
:38:37. > :38:41.measures to mitigate against zero hours contracts for example. There
:38:42. > :38:45.was nothing on that. And the third, you remember Theresa May when she
:38:46. > :38:50.became Prime Minister said she was going to do about fairness in the
:38:51. > :38:58.workplace and particularly excess rises in executive pay. Nothing in
:38:59. > :39:03.that either. Workers on the board... There was going to be workers on the
:39:04. > :39:09.boards of companies, did she have a rush of blood to the head? I think
:39:10. > :39:13.her idealism was quickly tempered by her colleagues and quickly
:39:14. > :39:17.forgotten. Yes, but it might be a theme she wants to come back to
:39:18. > :39:21.because that is the way the Conservatives want to position
:39:22. > :39:26.themselves isn't it, Angela? By saying we may not share some of the
:39:27. > :39:30.liberal values like Jeremy Corbyn, but we are the party for working
:39:31. > :39:33.people and we will look to do something like that, but there was
:39:34. > :39:40.very little of that in Philip Hammond's budget? There was nothing
:39:41. > :39:44.for the people who are just about managing. Giving groups of people
:39:45. > :39:48.names like that makes it easier to ignore them and move on. People who
:39:49. > :39:52.are affected by the underinvestment in social care and the stripping out
:39:53. > :39:57.of social care, they will be disappointed to see... There was a
:39:58. > :40:02.shed load of money for social care in England? Not really, not in the
:40:03. > :40:08.scheme of things of what is needed. It is not really what those who have
:40:09. > :40:13.been campaigning and July in desperate need of social care, will
:40:14. > :40:22.think. We have to move on, but that does need to be rethought, it is not
:40:23. > :40:26.just about money is it? It is one of the impacts on the NHS because if
:40:27. > :40:31.there is no place to go into adult care, he was talking particularly
:40:32. > :40:36.about older people, they remain in hospital beds and that blocks of the
:40:37. > :40:39.people coming in for emergency treatment or elective operations.
:40:40. > :40:45.Not to scare people, Angela, the fact there is a review on this, we
:40:46. > :40:51.might be asked to pay for it through an insurance scheme? The tax
:40:52. > :40:55.giveaways and corporation tax were flag, a tax giveaway that could have
:40:56. > :40:58.funded social care. We will be back with you later on.
:40:59. > :41:00.Back to Westminster, and our correspondent David Porter
:41:01. > :41:14.I do indeed. That MP is Iain Murray from Scottish Labour who has joined
:41:15. > :41:20.me at a very lively College Green this afternoon. As far as Labour is
:41:21. > :41:28.concerned, what is or not in this budget for Scotland? It was a budget
:41:29. > :41:33.that we have not been said already that we have not heard already. Debt
:41:34. > :41:38.will still increase. Crucially, the Chancellor didn't mention Brexit
:41:39. > :41:41.once which is the biggest economic issue facing the entirety of the
:41:42. > :41:48.country for a generation. In terms of Scottish workforce, the increases
:41:49. > :41:51.to national insurance for the self-employed will be hard-hitting,
:41:52. > :41:56.those people who drove the economy after the crash. Taxi drivers,
:41:57. > :41:59.plumbers, joiners, builders, those workers who will be hard hit by this
:42:00. > :42:04.budget and they are the drivers of the economy at the moment. The fact
:42:05. > :42:07.the Chancellor is making it specifically about the
:42:08. > :42:11.self-employed. It is not fair they get a better deal than others, they
:42:12. > :42:15.use the services by the state so they should pay for them.
:42:16. > :42:21.Self-employed people don't get holiday pay or sick pay. A whole
:42:22. > :42:27.host of self-employed people forego by not being an employee. It is easy
:42:28. > :42:32.to say they use services and don't contribute, they do. All of those
:42:33. > :42:35.traditional self-employed people do. The government have forced people
:42:36. > :42:41.into self-employment over recent years. Has been a massive explosion
:42:42. > :42:45.of self-employed people, the government failed to transform the
:42:46. > :42:49.economy the way they should have done in 2010. You are a UK
:42:50. > :42:51.Government minister and you are saying since Theresa May became
:42:52. > :42:56.Prime Minister, the Scottish Government has got more than ?1
:42:57. > :43:00.billion extra they were not banking on. They would argue it shows they
:43:01. > :43:05.are looking after the union and they are doing a good by Scotland? That
:43:06. > :43:10.is the way the Barnett formula works and the Labour Party has fought for
:43:11. > :43:15.the Barnett formula because of the consequential is for Scotland. But
:43:16. > :43:19.the key aspects in terms of some of the statistics Diks, the Scottish
:43:20. > :43:23.economy growth still lags behind the United Kingdom. So the additional
:43:24. > :43:27.money going to Scotland must be spent on improving productivity and
:43:28. > :43:34.improving the Scottish economy. To do that, to take away the
:43:35. > :43:39.uncertainty of a second independence referendum, at least up the level of
:43:40. > :43:44.the UK, if not better. You mentioned it in your first answer, this is a
:43:45. > :43:48.budget which has to be seen through the prism of Brexit? He didn't
:43:49. > :43:52.mention Brexit, it is extraordinary it didn't come out of the mouth of
:43:53. > :43:58.the Chancellor in a speech that was almost an hour. He has squirrelled
:43:59. > :44:02.away a ?60 billion Brexit fund. It is a Brexit value fund because we
:44:03. > :44:08.were told it would be wonderful and Rosie. It will cost 2% in growth
:44:09. > :44:12.until 2020, and it will cost a huge amount in deficit and debt and he
:44:13. > :44:16.has that to put away ?60 billion because of the Brexit headwinds. The
:44:17. > :44:20.Chancellor should have said, for the benefit of the economy, I will tell
:44:21. > :44:23.you what Brexit means to the United Kingdom economy and this is how we
:44:24. > :44:27.will will solve it. First, he could have done something about EU
:44:28. > :44:30.nationals, then he should have ploughed every penny into
:44:31. > :44:39.investments at the country can be in a better position post Brexit. We
:44:40. > :44:41.will have to leave it there. Thank you for your positions and
:44:42. > :44:46.projection. For the moment, back to the studio.
:44:47. > :44:52.It looks like you have got a personal demonstration against you!
:44:53. > :44:54.I managed to annoy a lot of people in life, it looks like I have
:44:55. > :45:14.annoyed a few more today! Philip Hammond told the Commons that
:45:15. > :45:18.the current low taxes paid by self-employed workers were unfair.
:45:19. > :45:27.It raises a net ?145 million per year. Mr Deputy Speaker, that is an
:45:28. > :45:33.average of around 60p per week herself employed person in this
:45:34. > :45:36.country. According to the Federation of Small Businesses, more than
:45:37. > :45:38.250,000 people in Scotland are self-employed.
:45:39. > :45:50.First of all, let's just get this straight, you are only affected by
:45:51. > :45:55.this if you make ?16,000 per year or more? It is the slice of your income
:45:56. > :46:02.that is between the lower earning band, which is about eight grand,
:46:03. > :46:08.which up to the upper earnings limit which is rising to 45 grand from
:46:09. > :46:12.next month. Who is going to be affected? What would you have to be
:46:13. > :46:16.making before you are going to be affected by this? It is a
:46:17. > :46:20.percentage. You are paying 9% at the moment on that slice of your income,
:46:21. > :46:28.it is going to go up to 11% in two years' time. I did a very quick
:46:29. > :46:33.calculation on this, and I think if everything stays the same, you will
:46:34. > :46:40.probably talking about an extra ?740 at the top end of the spectrum. Is
:46:41. > :46:44.that significant? Is that going to affect people in a significant way?
:46:45. > :46:47.This is a big deal, you are right, a quarter of a million people in
:46:48. > :46:54.Scotland are self-employed. To put it in the spectre, that is 80,000
:46:55. > :46:58.more than work in the NHS. And these are people who risk their homes,
:46:59. > :47:01.they risk their assets, their savings, their family security and
:47:02. > :47:04.everything just to go it alone and get out there and do something. It
:47:05. > :47:08.is exactly the sort of people we should be backing rather than
:47:09. > :47:12.singling out for such... Special treatment. I Kim section to the idea
:47:13. > :47:16.that they are freeloading or getting something for nothing. -- I take
:47:17. > :47:21.exception to the idea. Although you are paying less, we don't have
:47:22. > :47:25.statutory sick pay or paternity leave or employment benefits. Philip
:47:26. > :47:30.Hammond's arguments seem to be because of the state guaranteed
:47:31. > :47:33.pension that in the past there was a reason because people had to pay
:47:34. > :47:38.into pension funds and all the rest of it, but that reason is not there
:47:39. > :47:41.any more. You reject that idea? There is still an awful lot that we
:47:42. > :47:46.have to pay for. Whether or not it is the thing is that the state fund,
:47:47. > :47:51.like maternity leave, or things that the state have told employers to
:47:52. > :47:55.provide, like pension contributions, these are things which, regardless
:47:56. > :47:58.of who is paying for them, self-employed individuals have to
:47:59. > :48:00.draw out of their own pocket. Typically incomes among the
:48:01. > :48:06.self-employed are not vast, and then it is going to have to be found from
:48:07. > :48:10.somewhere. I think if the self-employed are going to start
:48:11. > :48:13.paying more like employees, it is a reasonable question to ask if they
:48:14. > :48:18.are not going to get the same sort of benefits. Do you have any idea
:48:19. > :48:26.how much or what proportion of self-employed people in Scotland are
:48:27. > :48:29.earning under 12 or ?15,000 per year? There is a big variation. Some
:48:30. > :48:34.are earning very small amounts because it is a multiple income
:48:35. > :48:40.source. There are others, about 10% of our members we reckon, and
:48:41. > :48:53.between ?2000 and ?5,000 per week. I think the average is about 19,000
:48:54. > :48:59.per month. -- sorry, 1800 thousand -- ?1800 per month. The income
:49:00. > :49:06.levels aren't massive, they are not generous. And it is the sort of
:49:07. > :49:09.level of income where small increases, when you look at
:49:10. > :49:16.everything else at the moment, really can make the difference. I do
:49:17. > :49:19.wonder why, with this employment review done by Matthew Taylor, Wiebe
:49:20. > :49:21.couldn't have waited to announce these changes. Thank you.
:49:22. > :49:31.Back to Wesminster now, and David Porter.
:49:32. > :49:37.Welcome back to College Green. Apologies for the lateness of
:49:38. > :49:40.acknowledging Hugh, it is quite a noisy atmosphere here this
:49:41. > :49:44.afternoon. We don't normally have this type of reaction to a Budget.
:49:45. > :49:50.What do the Liberal Democrats in Scotland think of it? To tell me is
:49:51. > :49:54.their spokesman Alistair Carmichael. Alistair, what does this Budget do
:49:55. > :50:01.or not do for Scotland? The one thing you see coming out of this
:50:02. > :50:03.Budget is just how out of touch this Conservative government, Philip
:50:04. > :50:06.Hammond is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, really is. It is quite
:50:07. > :50:11.incredible. This is his first opportunity to say something to the
:50:12. > :50:18.sectors of our economy that really need reassurance since Theresa May's
:50:19. > :50:21.Mansion House Speech on the subject of Brexit, determination to take out
:50:22. > :50:25.of the Single Market, her willingness in walking away without
:50:26. > :50:30.a deal. Whether it is that the City of London or the farmers and
:50:31. > :50:34.fishermen in Orkney and Shetland, my constituency, he had absolutely
:50:35. > :50:38.nothing to say. They are out of touch and they are out of ideas.
:50:39. > :50:42.Realistically, what could he have said, when the negotiations haven't
:50:43. > :50:47.even started yet? He could have made it very clear that he has a pathway,
:50:48. > :50:55.a determination, as the financial services sector, for example, is not
:50:56. > :50:58.going to be the edge of a cliff. There are farmers and fishermen who
:50:59. > :51:02.rely on that access to the Single Market for their exports, they are
:51:03. > :51:06.not going to be left at a competitive disadvantage or have a
:51:07. > :51:09.20% tariff on their goods being sold into these markets in the future.
:51:10. > :51:13.That is what they needed to hear from him today, and he had
:51:14. > :51:17.absolutely nothing to say. But, you know, it was when he got on to other
:51:18. > :51:24.areas. He was talking about National Insurance changes for the
:51:25. > :51:27.self-employed, for example, that you really saw just how little
:51:28. > :51:34.understanding he has of what life is like for people at the moment. On
:51:35. > :51:38.areas like Uber and other companies that are basically abusing the rules
:51:39. > :51:44.for the self-employed, he should be tackling them. He is instead
:51:45. > :51:47.tackling the window cleaners and the other self-employed people who
:51:48. > :51:51.struggle hard to make ends meet, and they are going to be clobbered again
:51:52. > :51:55.as a result of this Budget today. You talk about him not acknowledging
:51:56. > :51:59.the needs of agriculture and fishing and things like that. Yet he did
:52:00. > :52:03.make a point of saying, we are going to work with the oil and gas
:52:04. > :52:10.industry in Scotland, a large sector there to try and get as much out of
:52:11. > :52:15.that as possible. As far as that sector was concerned, it was a case
:52:16. > :52:19.of tomorrow and nothing today. What we got in fact was a promise that
:52:20. > :52:22.had already been made in previous statements in previous Budgets. The
:52:23. > :52:27.oil and gas industry came forward with a very reasonable and very well
:52:28. > :52:31.thought out ask. Quite a detailed ask. There was absolutely no
:52:32. > :52:34.reference to that today. Again, for the north-east of Scotland in
:52:35. > :52:40.particular, that is an area where the need for support is absolutely
:52:41. > :52:45.urgent. With every week that passes you see more companies in the supply
:52:46. > :52:48.chain, not just the big majors but the supply chain across the
:52:49. > :52:52.north-east, laying people off and closing down businesses. And the
:52:53. > :52:57.Chancellor had absolutely nothing to say to them today. As far as this
:52:58. > :53:00.Budget was concerned, it was treading water. He can't say too
:53:01. > :53:03.much because he doesn't know what position he is going to be in in a
:53:04. > :53:07.few months' time when the negotiations get underway. There are
:53:08. > :53:12.whole reams of areas. I will pick one for you. Climate change, for
:53:13. > :53:14.example, when he could have made a tremendous difference with a very
:53:15. > :53:18.small amount of money. That is something that is not going to be
:53:19. > :53:26.Brexit dependent. He could have come forward and told us how he is going
:53:27. > :53:28.to see the development of wave and tidal power, for example, something
:53:29. > :53:31.that is enormously important for our island communities. Again, the
:53:32. > :53:35.silence was absolutely deafening. As the Carmichael, we have to leave it
:53:36. > :53:39.there. Thank you for your perseverance with our friends behind
:53:40. > :53:44.us -- Alistair Carmichael. From a very noisy and lively College Green,
:53:45. > :53:48.back to you. I think it is your fans, David! I think they are
:53:49. > :53:55.shouting acclamation! It's a nice thought, isn't it?,.
:53:56. > :53:57.Let's get a final word from Ray Perman from
:53:58. > :53:59.the David Hume Insititute, and Dr Angela O'Hagan
:54:00. > :54:04.I think Philip Hammond mentioned Brexit at the beginning of his
:54:05. > :54:10.speech, but he didn't mention it after that. No, as we pointed to the
:54:11. > :54:15.other ways in which it seemed to be in a vacuum. I still enjoying the
:54:16. > :54:19.very noisy women and think it is brilliant they have had such a
:54:20. > :54:23.presence in the whole Budget discussion on International Women's
:54:24. > :54:26.Day, yet again another political decision that has disadvantaged
:54:27. > :54:31.women over the period. As far as Brexit is concerned, where are we on
:54:32. > :54:37.that? And where are we on all of the questions around inequality's going
:54:38. > :54:41.back to your earlier point, the government are positioning
:54:42. > :54:45.themselves for ordinary people, the effects of Brexit will be very
:54:46. > :54:48.significant ordinary people, not least the EU nationals, people who
:54:49. > :54:52.have come here and created a living and their families here in this
:54:53. > :54:59.country. Of course, what Philip Howard would say is, he himself and
:55:00. > :55:04.the OBR were wrong. It simply isn't as bad as everybody says it was
:55:05. > :55:07.going to be. It might be in the future, but as the figures right now
:55:08. > :55:12.are rather confounding for those who said that Brexit would be a
:55:13. > :55:18.disaster. Well, they are. But I think the OBR has already said, you
:55:19. > :55:21.shouldn't, and the Chancellor echoed this, you shouldn't project that
:55:22. > :55:26.into the future. This won't last. We are going to have a problem from
:55:27. > :55:29.Brexit. The other thing about Brexit is, the Government wants to try and
:55:30. > :55:34.start the negotiations, maybe as early as next week but certainly by
:55:35. > :55:37.the end of the month. Is that they have a plan, but as Mike Tyson
:55:38. > :55:42.memorably said, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face,
:55:43. > :55:49.you know! The Brexit negotiations are pretty unpredictable. We don't
:55:50. > :55:52.know what the effect will be over the next two years on the economy.
:55:53. > :55:56.And there could be ups and downs of things like the pound, for example.
:55:57. > :55:59.Reports come out that some huge, massive impasse for example in
:56:00. > :56:03.negotiations, we are going to have to brace ourselves. Like that. Yes,
:56:04. > :56:09.we have to brace ourselves I think for all sorts of things, whatever
:56:10. > :56:17.happens that exhausted usual level in Scotland, whether it makes it or
:56:18. > :56:25.not. There are lots of unknowns at the moment. The general state of the
:56:26. > :56:28.world economy, and the British economy, on a slightly more cheerful
:56:29. > :56:34.note, we are not there. We might have the shadow of the recession,
:56:35. > :56:40.but things are by and large getting back to something like the way they
:56:41. > :56:44.were before 2007, aren't they? I think Graeme Morrice said earlier in
:56:45. > :56:50.the programme, you know, most of the GDP we generate is domestic. So
:56:51. > :56:54.there are problems in the outside world, we don't know about trade,
:56:55. > :56:58.but it is not the whole economy. So the rest of it is doing reasonably
:56:59. > :57:02.well at the moment, but there are problems, as we mentioned earlier,
:57:03. > :57:06.consumer spending is slowing, consumers are borrowing, and that
:57:07. > :57:09.can't go on for a very long time. So there are lots of difficulties
:57:10. > :57:14.there. I think it is well for so saying some things about Scotland.
:57:15. > :57:20.There wasn't much in the Budget that Scotland can change. So for example,
:57:21. > :57:23.we now have in Scotland the ability to change income tax, but we don't
:57:24. > :57:28.have the ability to change National Insurance contributions. So they
:57:29. > :57:33.will just happen? They will just happen, and they are just another
:57:34. > :57:41.form of income tax, in effect. That was very noticeable. You heard from,
:57:42. > :57:45.what he cannot do, is go on looking on Holyrood's and say, can you not
:57:46. > :57:49.implement it? Could they look at devolving that or would it cause
:57:50. > :57:53.problems? I think as well you can maximise the powers that we have,
:57:54. > :57:59.abusing our tax powers to generate tax. Sorry to cut you off, we're
:58:00. > :58:00.going to have to leave it there. We are completely out of time.
:58:01. > :58:06.And I'll be back this weekend for Sunday Politics Scotland.