:00:20. > :00:25.Welcome to the first Politics Scotland of 20 the team. The year
:00:25. > :00:30.kicks off with big changes to welfare reform. We look at what
:00:30. > :00:34.that could mean. Keep watching the money flowing. The Scottish
:00:34. > :00:39.Government are positive about the future of Scotland's oil.
:00:39. > :00:42.And here, the UK government says removing the Trident from the Clyde
:00:42. > :00:46.after independence would cost thousands of jobs and billions of
:00:46. > :00:52.pounds. The SNP says that is not true.
:00:52. > :00:58.First, last night, MPs at Westminster voted for a 1% cut in
:00:58. > :01:08.benefits increases. The UK Government wants to rein in
:01:08. > :01:10.
:01:10. > :01:15.spending. -- 1% cap. The review is that the UK reforms
:01:15. > :01:18.are coming too deep and too fast, we disagree with some of the
:01:18. > :01:22.changes the government in the UK are making. These reforms are
:01:22. > :01:30.coming against the backdrop of some of the biggest cuts we have seen to
:01:30. > :01:36.the welfare system in a generation. Let us go to the Garden Lobby.
:01:36. > :01:42.Wigan's Peter Kenneth Gibson from the SNP. He is joined by
:01:42. > :01:49.representatives from Labour and the Conservatives. Good afternoon. Alex
:01:49. > :01:52.Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon was speaking. Why cut too fast and wide
:01:52. > :01:58.target working people? That has always been one of the things that
:01:58. > :02:02.the SNP say, but they never say how fast and how deep. The truth is
:02:02. > :02:06.that welfare reform has been overlooked as a priority by
:02:06. > :02:14.successive governments, and we have been prepared to grasp that nettle.
:02:14. > :02:17.If we want to keep the best welfare system in the world, we need to
:02:18. > :02:21.make sure resources and support are going to the people who need it,
:02:21. > :02:27.and we need to make sure there is public support for its continuation
:02:27. > :02:30.long term. That is what this is about. We have seen single-parent
:02:30. > :02:40.families being targeted. You say that you want the people who need
:02:40. > :02:40.
:02:40. > :02:46.it most deserve it. They did not believe single -- I do not believe
:02:46. > :02:51.single-parent families are being targeted. This comes on top of a
:02:51. > :02:54.5.2% increase last year, well above inflation. I do not remember anyone
:02:54. > :02:59.praising Iain Duncan Smith for that at the time. We have to have
:02:59. > :03:05.consistent. Michael McMahon from Labour, you are stuck in the middle
:03:05. > :03:08.here. It is a rather awkward position because you want to look
:03:09. > :03:13.tough on so-called benefit scroungers, but you also have to
:03:13. > :03:18.keep your voters on the left happy, don't you? That is not the way to
:03:18. > :03:22.the captive. Voters on the left or the right should agree that what we
:03:22. > :03:26.want to do is support those who need it when they needed, but
:03:27. > :03:31.support those who want to get into work to get to work, stay and work
:03:31. > :03:38.and access work. Our concern, regardless of what wing of the
:03:38. > :03:42.Labour Party you may come from, is that the Conservative Party's
:03:42. > :03:48.agenda is a slash-and-burn process to cut the welfare budget at the
:03:48. > :03:54.expense of the most vulnerable. That is not acceptable. It is
:03:54. > :03:58.hardly slash-and-burn, when they are only capping increases. It must
:03:58. > :04:07.be difficult to justify why you voted against that yesterday, when
:04:07. > :04:11.you can see the challenges they face. It is not just of --
:04:11. > :04:14.difficult to justify it. The Conservative Government are cutting
:04:14. > :04:18.corporation tax and tax to millionaires. This is supposed to
:04:18. > :04:23.be something we are all in this together, but they are not pursuing
:04:23. > :04:27.an agenda that would indicate that. In the context of the wider welfare
:04:27. > :04:30.reforms, we see budgets being slashed on the introduction of
:04:30. > :04:33.Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment. There is an
:04:33. > :04:40.agenda here, about cutting the budget and expense of the most
:04:40. > :04:50.vulnerable. Let us turn to Kenneth Gibson from the MSP. We see the
:04:50. > :04:55.
:04:55. > :05:02.challenges we face. -- from the SNP. Why should benefits go up more than
:05:02. > :05:09.wages? A family with one earner on minimum wage will be �13 a week
:05:09. > :05:17.worse off by 2015, it is hardly an incentive for people to get back
:05:17. > :05:21.into work when those on minimum wage will be hit hard. I was
:05:21. > :05:24.listening to the radio this morning, and a representative said that
:05:24. > :05:30.people want to get into work but disagreed with a point that Alex
:05:30. > :05:33.Johnson said, that people should leave the Community to seek work.
:05:33. > :05:38.Do you not think that if people are out of work they should go to try
:05:38. > :05:42.to find work elsewhere? It is an insult to those out of work to say
:05:42. > :05:50.that they don't. Most people out of work look at all options available
:05:50. > :05:55.to them. I think that will continue, and will for many years. Many
:05:56. > :06:01.people in Scotland have left two other areas over many generations
:06:01. > :06:06.to seek work, so I think that is a comment I would not agree with.
:06:06. > :06:10.us move to another issue coming up on the agenda this afternoon. As
:06:10. > :06:15.the Scottish Government put it, the huge benefits of maximising the oil
:06:15. > :06:19.and gas recovery. Alex Johnson, the Scottish government say that they
:06:19. > :06:25.believe there is far more oil to be extracted from the North Sea, which
:06:25. > :06:30.could increase revenue. Do you agree? There is a lot more or oil
:06:30. > :06:33.to come out of the North Sea, and we should encourage exploration and
:06:33. > :06:37.continued development of it. But we have to accept there will be a
:06:37. > :06:42.downward trend over time, and the amount of revenue that can be
:06:42. > :06:45.recovered over that will be limited. What worries me is that the
:06:45. > :06:48.prospect of this government holding out for future revenue schemes
:06:48. > :06:52.seems to indicate they want to squeeze more tax out of the
:06:52. > :06:56.industry, either on the production or service side, which is very
:06:56. > :06:59.important to the economy of Aberdeen and the north-east. We
:07:00. > :07:04.want the industry to remain a success, not to become the cash-cow
:07:04. > :07:09.that will fund an independent Scotland. We cannot afford to have
:07:09. > :07:16.a conveyor belt out of the North Sea and Aberdeen to front the
:07:16. > :07:20.exaggerated promises that have been made by the SNP. It is a highly
:07:20. > :07:24.sensitive political point, how much revenue we can extract from the
:07:24. > :07:28.North Sea. Do you agree with his Scottish Government that it is a
:07:28. > :07:33.lot still to be extracted there, and they can get a lot more money
:07:33. > :07:37.out of the North Sea? That is a very valid argument to make, which
:07:37. > :07:42.is something we would want to pursue. If there are avenues we can
:07:42. > :07:47.work along with the oil and gas industry to make Scotland more
:07:47. > :07:52.profitable, then why would we not want to pursue that? An independent
:07:52. > :07:55.Scotland would be quite well off? Not necessarily because you are
:07:55. > :08:00.throwing all your eggs in one basket if you look at the oil and
:08:00. > :08:04.gas industry as the means of this. That is one of the down sides of
:08:05. > :08:08.the SNP's argument, this is what they based all their economic
:08:09. > :08:16.assessment on. We would rather we were part of an economy which was
:08:16. > :08:21.not so dependent entirely on one sector, the way the SNP predict.
:08:21. > :08:26.Kevin Gibson, you are putting all your eggs in one basket, relying on
:08:26. > :08:36.revenue from a very volatile resource. That has been pointed out
:08:36. > :08:42.
:08:42. > :08:51.by the well-known think tank, the CPP are. -- CPPR. For a start, in
:08:51. > :08:59.Norway, their standard of living is 70% higher than Scotland and most
:08:59. > :09:03.of it was from oil and gas. No one says they are in trouble.
:09:03. > :09:09.Biotechnology is also increasing. I would like to comment on what Alec
:09:09. > :09:12.Johnson said. He made a shameful comment about taxation, in view of
:09:12. > :09:19.the fact that two years ago the Tories increased taxation on oil
:09:19. > :09:26.exploration by 12% without consulting anyone. Just let him
:09:26. > :09:35.finish. What we want is a stable regime for oil taxation, not the
:09:35. > :09:40.ham-fisted approach. There is a boom in investment in the North Sea,
:09:40. > :09:47.based on confidence of the taxation regime we have in place today, and
:09:47. > :09:50.that well supported. Based on the Tory retreat of their ham-fisted
:09:50. > :09:57.actions in 20th March 11 when they put on tax to an industry that was
:09:57. > :10:03.not -- in March, 2011, when they put tags on an edition that was not
:10:03. > :10:10.in support of its. Thank you to you all.
:10:10. > :10:17.A political commentator, Hamish Macdonell, is here in the studio.
:10:17. > :10:22.We will get onto the oil and gas debate in a moment. Let us Pickup
:10:22. > :10:27.on the benefits. There. Alex Johnson, very stoutly defending
:10:27. > :10:31.what the UK have been doing. I am intrigued by a couple of things
:10:31. > :10:35.there. MSPs from all parties will be relieved that this is not
:10:35. > :10:37.something they have to deal with. Welfare reform and benefits are
:10:37. > :10:40.something the Westminster government has to work its way
:10:40. > :10:47.through, and the MSPs can attack from the sidelines without having
:10:47. > :10:51.to make tough choices. I was also intrigued by the language being
:10:51. > :10:57.used by the three MSPs. They were all talking about protecting hard-
:10:57. > :11:01.working families. No one seems to be having a go at the Ben Nevis
:11:01. > :11:06.giving to people who are unemployed, and that is where this debate is
:11:06. > :11:13.being fought. Alex Johnson was very bullish in his defence, and he had
:11:14. > :11:18.two tough competitors. And Michael McMahon from Labour, perhaps they
:11:18. > :11:25.are stuck in the middle of this debate. Is it hard for them to know
:11:25. > :11:35.how to position themselves? They do not want to alienate potential
:11:35. > :11:35.
:11:36. > :11:41.voters. Labour here and in London and a where of the opposing -- and
:11:42. > :11:48.here, with opposing views,... People who hide behind the curtains
:11:48. > :11:53.while other people go to work. There is opposition to people who
:11:53. > :11:56.are seen as benefit scroungers, which Labour know. They stress
:11:56. > :11:59.about hard-working families, pinning this down to the benefit
:11:59. > :12:07.cuts being made to people working, trying to avoid the benefit cuts
:12:07. > :12:10.being made to those who are not. The language of the debate was
:12:10. > :12:15.interesting when it came to the Liberal Democrats, because we had a
:12:15. > :12:21.Lib Dem MP deciding to rebel. A lot of it was because of the language
:12:21. > :12:26.that is used in Mr Bate. Yes, the Conservatives are much more happy
:12:26. > :12:31.being in that place. -- the language used in the debate. The
:12:31. > :12:34.Lib Dems are not happy with that. They are much softer on that. We
:12:34. > :12:39.saw Danny Alexander, although he backed the Government, when he was
:12:39. > :12:42.drawn on that on the radio, he stood away from the language, too.
:12:42. > :12:47.The Lib Dems are in a difficult position and it makes it hard for
:12:48. > :12:52.them. For the SNP, they say that if they had full control they would be
:12:52. > :12:56.able to decide and they would not target families and so on, but if
:12:56. > :13:03.they did have full control of spending, they could have to face
:13:03. > :13:06.some tough choices. Yes, they do not have to make any choices on
:13:06. > :13:15.welfare at the moment so they can hit from the sidelines and have a
:13:15. > :13:19.pop about this. Nicola Sturgeon said many families will be targeted
:13:19. > :13:22.with the benefits cut. It is great to be able to say that now, but if
:13:22. > :13:26.they are in charge of everything it would be up to the government in
:13:26. > :13:32.Scotland to make the stuff choices that Westminster is facing at the
:13:32. > :13:35.more mint. Before we go to the oil and gas debate in the chamber, it
:13:35. > :13:40.is a highly politicised debate because so much of it depends on
:13:40. > :13:47.how well off an independent Scotland may be. The Independent's
:13:47. > :13:51.argument has been based around oil and gas revenues for the last 30
:13:51. > :13:56.years. At what pace will be a decline and when will we lose that
:13:56. > :14:02.money? The SNP would say let us take advantage of that money as
:14:02. > :14:07.soon as possible before it runs out. Thank you. Let us head back to
:14:07. > :14:17.Holyrood, where is the debate on oil and gas going on. Glen Campbell
:14:17. > :14:20.
:14:20. > :14:25.The debate has just got under way. In the light and they importance of
:14:25. > :14:29.this sector to the debate on independence, you will not beat
:14:29. > :14:33.surprise to hear that there has been an emphasis on the
:14:33. > :14:37.contribution that oil and gas revenues could make in the future.
:14:38. > :14:47.He quoted one expat who suggested that oil would continue to flow
:14:48. > :14:53.
:14:53. > :14:59.from the Noci well into the 20 forties. -- the North Sea.
:14:59. > :15:05.Just before the Christmas period, stat Oil announced an investment in
:15:05. > :15:11.the North Sea creating 700 new jobs. They are expecting to produce oil
:15:11. > :15:17.for the next 30 years. There is a vibrancy to this sector there we
:15:17. > :15:21.must celebrate and encourage in these tough economic conditions. I
:15:21. > :15:28.have visited all of these and many other companies. I want to dispel
:15:28. > :15:32.the myth that this is just an offshore industry. Each company
:15:32. > :15:38.supports a long supply chain, offshore and onshore, providing
:15:38. > :15:42.Scottish jobs and commercialising Scottish technological advances.
:15:42. > :15:50.Are our offshore industry is part of the economy on shore and
:15:50. > :15:58.Aberdeen is one of the world's most important energy hubs. It's as a
:15:58. > :16:08.great reputation for its engineering and answer sups seat
:16:08. > :16:13.skills. We have seen new innovations and developments beyond
:16:13. > :16:20.Aberdeen. New offices have opened in the Clyde gates weight and
:16:20. > :16:27.Dunfermline related to what the industry in the North Sea. 400 more
:16:27. > :16:31.jobs have just been announced before Christmas. In our Eileen gas
:16:31. > :16:38.strategy, the Scottish government seeks to support the industry in
:16:38. > :16:43.any way it can. Our strategy has been developed, almost devised, by
:16:43. > :16:49.industry. It sets out a compelling long-term vision of the future of
:16:49. > :16:54.the sector. It focuses on innovation to improve recovery
:16:54. > :17:02.rates. Scotland's historic court recovery rate is only 40 per cent
:17:02. > :17:06.on average. 60 per cent of our precious commodity remains in the
:17:06. > :17:11.ground. Our oil and gas strategy sets an ambition to improve average
:17:11. > :17:17.recovery rates to 50 per cent, taking out more than we leave
:17:17. > :17:26.behind. To put this in perspective, an increase of just one percentage
:17:26. > :17:36.point in our recovery rates would result in a rise in economic output
:17:36. > :17:45.
:17:45. > :17:52.of �89 billion as taxation off �22 billion. That is money that we all
:17:52. > :18:02.would wish to see used for such things as a vital public services.
:18:02. > :18:05.
:18:05. > :18:11.Derek key issues in the strategy. - - and there are several key issues.
:18:11. > :18:19.The focus is now on delivery of the strategy with industry, government,
:18:19. > :18:23.academia, economic development agencies and Scottish Enterprise.
:18:23. > :18:26.Scottish Enterprise is supporting the industry over the next three
:18:26. > :18:32.years looking at innovative projects that can improve the
:18:32. > :18:38.integrity and reliability of oil and gas industry assets. The first
:18:38. > :18:44.awards will be made in the next few months. Feature research and
:18:44. > :18:51.development will take place in the spring and autumn of this year to
:18:51. > :18:56.improve reservoir imaging. I anticipate a further two calls in
:18:56. > :19:00.2014 if the output continue to merit this approach. Scottish
:19:00. > :19:05.Enterprise is working with industry to leverage more expertise from
:19:05. > :19:11.within the industry to make the room was even greater. Hydrocarbons
:19:11. > :19:16.will remain a central element of the energy mix for some time to
:19:16. > :19:26.come. Arts draft electricity generation statement demonstrates a
:19:26. > :19:33.clear need for hydrocarbon since -- hydrocarbon fuel. Carbon capture
:19:33. > :19:38.and storage could reduce the greenhouse emissions. Linking this
:19:38. > :19:48.would enhance the Isle recovery could accelerate development of ccs
:19:48. > :19:50.
:19:50. > :19:55.and unlock several billion barrels a while from the North Sea. We aim
:19:55. > :20:01.to develop understanding of new technologies to create a commercial
:20:01. > :20:07.use for carbon dioxide captured from power plants and industry. It
:20:07. > :20:12.will help us to realise the true economic potential of this gas for
:20:12. > :20:19.Europe. I recognise the view of industry then no -- that more work
:20:19. > :20:25.needs to be carried out before this industry becomes fully viable. I
:20:25. > :20:31.give way. I am grateful to the Minister for
:20:31. > :20:35.giving way. I am sure he will accept it but even if the CCS as a
:20:35. > :20:42.technology can be brought to my charity has no effective role to
:20:42. > :20:49.play in relation to the carbon in issues coming from our oil used,
:20:49. > :20:53.not energy generation. It is a little bit cart before the horse to
:20:54. > :20:58.use the CCS industry as a way of extracting ever more fossil carbon
:20:58. > :21:03.from the ground which will end up in the atmosphere?
:21:03. > :21:08.I do not agree with that. It will allow huge reserves of oil to be
:21:08. > :21:12.extracted which is hugely beneficial. I would have thought
:21:12. > :21:18.they would welcome CCS because it would allow 90 percent of the
:21:18. > :21:24.carbon emissions to be reduced. I thought that was a good thing.
:21:24. > :21:28.Without CCS, I do not know have the E U energy emission targets can be
:21:28. > :21:33.achieved. Only the application of CCS apply to power stations can
:21:33. > :21:38.make the reduction in carbon emissions on a scale necessary to
:21:38. > :21:44.achieve targets. Those used have been expressed by the International
:21:44. > :21:50.Atomic Energy Authority his chief executive spoke at a in a member
:21:50. > :22:00.Council of Ministers that I attended in 2011. I to disagree
:22:00. > :22:01.
:22:01. > :22:07.with Mr Harvey on this issue. It has become increasingly Clear Dept
:22:07. > :22:13.-- increasingly clear that there are ought to 24 billion barrels of
:22:13. > :22:20.resources still to be recovered. At least 5 billion may not be
:22:20. > :22:28.extracted duty infrastructure issues. This relates to 85 billion
:22:28. > :22:34.in lost revenues. We cannot afford to lose revenue on this scale. Nor
:22:34. > :22:40.can we afford to lose the tax revenues that I have described that
:22:40. > :22:46.are linked to that. Irrespective of what our politics may be, no one
:22:46. > :22:56.can afford to forfeit or loses vital opportunity.
:22:56. > :22:57.
:22:57. > :23:00.Fergus Ewing speaking live in parliament. Let us pick up on some
:23:00. > :23:08.of the issues raised in that debate with our political commentator for
:23:08. > :23:13.the afternoon, Hamish Macdonnell. Paper you have to be a little bit
:23:13. > :23:19.careful with these figures. He said it was �24 billion over the
:23:20. > :23:26.lifetime of the oil reserves. He did that make interesting. There.
:23:26. > :23:36.The SNP are saying that if we could increase the efficiency of the Isle
:23:36. > :23:36.
:23:36. > :23:43.feels, we could improve tax revenue. -- oilfields. An important point
:23:43. > :23:49.was made by Patrick Harvie, drawing in this contradiction in be the
:23:49. > :23:53.position of the Scottish government, which on the one hand is in favour
:23:53. > :23:57.of oil and gas to averment as on the other wants to pursue an
:23:57. > :24:02.environmentally friendly and green agenda. He was essentially asking
:24:02. > :24:08.how those match up. How do you deal with fossil fuel extraction on the
:24:08. > :24:13.one hand and stop burning greenhouse gases in the future. It
:24:13. > :24:18.is a hard one for the Scottish governments to get out of.
:24:18. > :24:23.We will hear from Labour in a moment. This place into the hands
:24:23. > :24:32.of the SNP in terms of the independence debate. Fergus Ewing
:24:32. > :24:36.made a clear. That that money could be spent on services. In our debate
:24:36. > :24:40.earlier the point was made that there are concerns about the tax
:24:40. > :24:44.regime that may be in place in an independent Scotland. The our oil
:24:44. > :24:51.companies may be worried about that as well, hearing that all that
:24:51. > :24:56.money might go on services. Oil and gas has been the gold mine
:24:56. > :25:01.on which the idea of independence has been founded for many years.
:25:01. > :25:05.The key point here is the question of how long the reserves will last.
:25:05. > :25:10.Fergus Ewing said there were 24 billion barrels of oil still to be
:25:10. > :25:15.recovered from the North Sea but nobody knows how recoverable those
:25:15. > :25:22.barrels are. It might not be economic to get more than 10
:25:22. > :25:26.barrels of that out of the ground. The longer we go on before we ever
:25:26. > :25:31.get to independence, the more of that money will be spent and the
:25:31. > :25:34.less I will there is to recover and the less gold mine there is far
:25:34. > :25:39.funding an independent Scotland. All these things meshed together
:25:39. > :25:43.and come to the heart of what we have in terms of constitutional
:25:43. > :25:46.debate. Oil has been at the heart of the
:25:46. > :25:52.constitutional debate since the 1970s.
:25:52. > :25:58.Yes, and it will continue to be said. If the independence
:25:58. > :26:01.referendum is defeated in a couple of years' time, it could be a
:26:01. > :26:08.generation is the future before there is another referendum and by
:26:08. > :26:12.then will there be enough oil to support an independent Scotland?
:26:12. > :26:19.We just heard from the energy minister Fergus Ewing there. Let us
:26:19. > :26:23.hear from Labour now back in the Chamber.
:26:23. > :26:28.The Minister has been emphasising what has still to flow from the
:26:28. > :26:34.North Sea. Many billions of barrels are still untapped and they will be
:26:34. > :26:42.worth many billions of pounds to the UK or an independent Scotland's
:26:42. > :26:48.in the future. The other parties will warn of the dangers of basing
:26:48. > :26:55.economics, the economic prospects of Scotland, on what they regard as
:26:55. > :27:00.an unpredictable resource. That is the theme Labour will touch on in
:27:00. > :27:10.their contribution. I could only imagine the real
:27:10. > :27:12.
:27:12. > :27:17.concern of that and the risks involved. This is a very small
:27:17. > :27:21.aspect of training undertaken. It was a real eye up there with regard
:27:21. > :27:26.to the risks, being submerged upside down in a swimming poor and
:27:26. > :27:31.finding your way out of a vehicle was challenging. This was in a very
:27:31. > :27:35.safe environment in comparison with the North Sea. That is why the
:27:35. > :27:41.recent problems with offshore transportation helicopters are
:27:41. > :27:47.extremely worrying. I have had constituents express concern to me
:27:47. > :27:50.about their work because of the lack of transportation to oil rigs.
:27:51. > :27:56.Workers are suffering financial hardship because of this. The
:27:56. > :27:59.industry is looking at the problem with helicopters and alternative
:27:59. > :28:05.transportation but given the hostile environments in which oil
:28:05. > :28:09.and gas platforms are situated, it is difficult to see a safer
:28:09. > :28:12.solution to transportation. The workforce is vulnerable to such
:28:12. > :28:19.changes and steps must be taken to make sure they do not suffer
:28:19. > :28:23.hardship while the safety issues are dealt with the. Safety in the
:28:24. > :28:30.industry is every workers business. The unions have pushed safety to to
:28:30. > :28:36.the top of the agenda by using safety representatives. Research
:28:36. > :28:41.commissioned recently shows that learning enhance his employees'
:28:41. > :28:45.commitment to safety. Training is another issue promoted by the trade
:28:45. > :28:48.union movement. Training and development of skills within the
:28:48. > :28:58.workforce is extremely important but the oil and gas industry still
:28:58. > :29:03.
:29:03. > :29:06.has some way to go on this. In a recent inquiry by the economy,
:29:06. > :29:10.energy and tourism committee, one above the common complaints from
:29:10. > :29:16.the renewable industry was with a while they were investing in skills,
:29:16. > :29:19.the oil and gas industry were not. Due to a shortage in the
:29:19. > :29:26.engineering field, many of them trained personnel were being
:29:26. > :29:34.poached by the Ireland gas industry because higher wages were available
:29:34. > :29:39.there. -- oil and gas industry. The sector will require a further
:29:39. > :29:46.10,000 employees over the next few years while other reports suggest
:29:46. > :29:51.remain needs an extra 120,000 workers in Aberdeen in the next
:29:51. > :29:54.decade. We are facing a skills shortage in engineering and
:29:54. > :29:59.industry as well as governments have a role to play in addressing
:29:59. > :30:04.the problem. The industry has a look at how it accommodates
:30:04. > :30:08.apprentices of shock, there by growing its own workforce. The
:30:08. > :30:18.industry has an ageing workforce and needs to act now to ensure they
:30:18. > :30:21.have adequate skills into the Now, down to Westminster, for a
:30:21. > :30:25.very heated Prime Minister's Questions. David Cameron was
:30:26. > :30:33.quizzed on the coalition's midterm review, but it was the cap on
:30:34. > :30:42.benefits that could cause the biggest.
:30:42. > :30:50.-- biggest stir. Could the Prime Minister tell us why he failed to
:30:50. > :30:54.publish his filled promises? will publish all the promises,
:30:54. > :31:03.every 399 in the midterm review. This will be full, frank and
:31:03. > :31:08.completely and varnished, -- unvarnished. We said we would cut
:31:08. > :31:15.the deficit, it is down by 25%. We said we would cut immigration, it
:31:15. > :31:21.is down by 25%. We said we would rebalance the economy, one million
:31:21. > :31:28.private sector jobs. Another broken promise, on women. He said this, in
:31:28. > :31:34.his usual modest way, we want to make sexual inequality history.
:31:34. > :31:39.That is a big commitment. That needs a serious commitment, clear
:31:39. > :31:47.policies and clear leadership, so will be audit tell us about another
:31:47. > :31:57.broken promise about the benefit changes hating women? I think the
:31:57. > :32:00.Chancellor should come down a bit too. -- calm. The benefit changes
:32:00. > :32:10.are hitting women three times as hard as men. There are more women
:32:10. > :32:14.
:32:14. > :32:23.in work... There is too much noise He will be able to see that there
:32:23. > :32:30.are more women in work than at any time in history. There are pension
:32:30. > :32:33.reforms helping women, and we are helping women with extra childcare
:32:33. > :32:38.for four year-olds, for the year old and two-year-olds. What a
:32:38. > :32:43.contrast between a government that is prepared to publish of the piece
:32:43. > :32:46.of information about every pledge on what has been achieved and a
:32:46. > :32:52.party opposite who cannot apologise for the mess they left the country
:32:52. > :32:56.in. Does the Prime Minister excel at that we brought in an 11% rise
:32:56. > :33:06.in the child element of the tax credit, followed by a 5% rise, and
:33:06. > :33:11.
:33:11. > :33:17.He makes a very important point about how we focused help for those
:33:17. > :33:21.in need. But because we have raised the income tax threshold, someone
:33:21. > :33:29.on minimum wage has seen their income tax bill cut in half. We
:33:29. > :33:32.want to see people get on. Can he confirm that a single mum in my
:33:32. > :33:42.constituency who works all the hours she can in Tesco, but does
:33:42. > :33:44.
:33:44. > :33:49.not earn enough to gain from the new elements, each will be a
:33:49. > :33:54.staggering �1,250 a year worse off? Everyone is affected by those
:33:54. > :33:57.changes, everyone on tax credits will be affected. Everyone on an
:33:57. > :34:02.out-of-work benefits will be affected by the fight there is only
:34:02. > :34:07.a 1% increase. But we have to ask ourselves, if we are saving �5
:34:07. > :34:13.billion through those changes, which I believe our fair, how would
:34:13. > :34:23.the party opposite fill in the plughole? What would you take it
:34:23. > :34:24.
:34:25. > :34:28.Let us speak to David Porter, standing by on College Green. We
:34:28. > :34:35.are speaking about the changes to welfare reform, and hearing about
:34:35. > :34:40.the Prime Minister, who spent a large proportion of Prime
:34:40. > :34:43.Minister's Questions defending the cap on benefits. Yes, already
:34:43. > :34:51.welfare is proving to be a very important political issue.
:34:51. > :34:54.which brings a very sharp divide of -- dividing line. Both sides of the
:34:55. > :35:03.argument want to be seen on the side of fairness. It is one of the
:35:03. > :35:07.key issues of 2013, when they come in later in the year. I will make a
:35:07. > :35:11.prediction, when we are doing a round-up at the end of 2013,
:35:12. > :35:17.welfare will be one of the key issues. Another issue causing great
:35:17. > :35:27.interest his defence, given added impetus yesterday by the
:35:27. > :35:29.publication of evidence from the UK government that says if an
:35:29. > :35:33.independent Scotland withdraw Trident from the Clyde, it would
:35:33. > :35:38.cost billions of pounds, and the SNP say that is not true. I am
:35:38. > :35:47.joined with two people from both sides. Angus Robertson, the leader
:35:47. > :35:52.of the SNP, at Westminster,... Let me put that to you from the UK
:35:52. > :35:59.government. Removing Trident from Faslane would cost thousands of
:36:00. > :36:05.jobs and billions of pounds. Happy New Year. I do not know if we are
:36:05. > :36:15.delighted to be black, but important things being discussed. -
:36:15. > :36:16.
:36:16. > :36:20.- delighted to be back. On the defence issue, we have to remind
:36:20. > :36:25.ourselves what is at stake, and if we want to be a country whose home
:36:25. > :36:30.to weapons of mass destruction has or not. Whether we want to have
:36:30. > :36:35.proper military forces or not. Unfortunately we are seeing the UK
:36:35. > :36:38.government spread the usual scare stories about Scotland's options,
:36:38. > :36:45.and I am in favour of Scotland having conventional forces based at
:36:45. > :36:49.Faslane, securing thousands of jobs, rather than spending billions of
:36:49. > :36:52.pounds on weapons of mass destruction that we can have a use.
:36:52. > :36:56.I am on the same side of the argument as the Scottish Trade
:36:56. > :37:00.Union Congress, all of Scotland's churches, the voluntary sector and
:37:00. > :37:07.the majority of public opinion, and it is important to send out a
:37:07. > :37:15.strong message that it is only with a "yes" vote in the referendum that
:37:15. > :37:20.we can make an appropriate choice. The UK government is not prepared
:37:20. > :37:30.to do this in the south coast of England for safety reasons, but it
:37:30. > :37:30.
:37:30. > :37:37.is safe in Scotland, apparently. We have a choice, and unfortunately
:37:38. > :37:43.the Labour Party is choosing to be on the same side as the Tories.
:37:43. > :37:45.do you back the UK government on this argument? It is the Scottish
:37:45. > :37:51.Affairs Select Committee that have uncovered this information, and
:37:51. > :37:56.have done a very useful job here. What they have shown his separation
:37:56. > :38:01.would be a devastating blow to the economy, particularly for the West
:38:01. > :38:10.of Scotland in this case that we are discussing. 6,500 jobs at a
:38:10. > :38:16.naval base on the Clyde, which will rise to over 8,000. Plus, an
:38:16. > :38:22.additional 4,500 additional jobs in the economy every single year, all
:38:22. > :38:26.of that gone. And what for? A gamble and very weak and flimsy
:38:26. > :38:33.plans. I would be delighted if we would debate on what defence we
:38:33. > :38:40.should have as a country. I wrote to Angus last year, and I still
:38:40. > :38:44.wait for the answers to a whole raft of questions. Are you saying
:38:44. > :38:49.that the economics of success Trump the argument about whether Scotland
:38:49. > :38:52.should have a nuclear deterrent based in Scottish waters?
:38:52. > :38:57.issues of whether or not we have a continuous nuclear deterrent has to
:38:57. > :39:02.be taken on his own merits, but we have to also look at the economic
:39:02. > :39:06.impact of separation, and that is the impact the Scottish Affairs
:39:06. > :39:11.Select Committee have put out very plainly, all of those jobs and
:39:11. > :39:17.money gone. You do not lie eight nuclear weapons, that is no secret.
:39:17. > :39:23.But there is -- you do not like nuclear weapons, but they do
:39:23. > :39:31.provide a lot of high-paid secure jobs in Scotland. I am on the same
:39:31. > :39:41.side as Ian Davidson, and we both think it is not a good thing to the
:39:41. > :39:48.new -- renewed Trident, but Gemma are saying there are no options,
:39:48. > :39:51.but there are options. Surely the Labour Party must have a plan for
:39:52. > :39:58.Faslane after we choose not to have weapons of mass destruction. I have
:39:58. > :40:08.yet to hear a single proposal from the Labour Party to what that might
:40:08. > :40:10.
:40:10. > :40:20.be. Our preferences but we have proper conventional naval forces.
:40:20. > :40:27.How many submarines? We have to go through a process of negotiation.
:40:27. > :40:32.You have no idea! But we cannot go through a process of negotiation
:40:32. > :40:42.until we have a decision. I am on the same side of the STUC, the same
:40:42. > :40:44.
:40:44. > :40:48.side as the churches and... As I have explained once and I will
:40:48. > :40:53.explain again, we have to go through a process of negotiation. I
:40:53. > :41:01.throw the message back to you. Your party is committed to nuclear
:41:01. > :41:06.disarmament, what are your plans for Faslane when that is achieved?
:41:06. > :41:15.As he knows full well, it is the nationalists, his party will want
:41:15. > :41:21.to break up Britain, who want to take away... You must have plans
:41:21. > :41:25.for Faslane. Parliament supported renewal of the nuclear deterrent,
:41:25. > :41:29.which we support, it is his party will want to shut down the naval
:41:29. > :41:37.base on the Clyde. He will also shut down the shipyards on the
:41:37. > :41:43.Clyde. No foreign country has built a warship -- the UK has not built a
:41:43. > :41:49.warship in any other country in decades, all of those contracts
:41:49. > :41:54.would be lost. Let us finish with one more thing. Should we have a
:41:54. > :42:00.proper discussion, a wide-ranging discussion, on what defence in an
:42:00. > :42:05.independent Scotland might look like? We have to have a tale of two
:42:05. > :42:10.futures, what are the options? What a Labour's plans for defence within
:42:10. > :42:14.the UK? How many service personnel will there be, what basis will
:42:14. > :42:18.there be? We saw a track record which saw 11,000 jobs cut under
:42:18. > :42:28.Labour, and a massive multi- million-pound defence underspend.
:42:28. > :42:33.
:42:33. > :42:38.The records as atrocious. Do we need a wide-ranging discussion
:42:38. > :42:42.about this? We need the nationalists to come forward with
:42:42. > :42:49.detailed plans, they have not come forward with this. For decades we
:42:49. > :42:56.have been pursuing -- and they have been pursuing independence. This is
:42:56. > :43:06.something that is going to run and run. Thank you for joining me.
:43:06. > :43:08.
:43:08. > :43:14.Defence will also be their day in Our commentator is Hamish Macdonell.
:43:14. > :43:18.A very fiery debate. Let us move on to a topic which is not related.
:43:18. > :43:26.Scottish whisky, there has been a proposal to levy tax on Scotch
:43:26. > :43:29.whisky, �1 tax per bottle. What has that come from? It has come from
:43:29. > :43:33.SNP thinkers and advisers, basically looking at the Scotch
:43:33. > :43:38.whisky industry, seeing it is doing extremely well, and has thought
:43:38. > :43:41.that if they could put extra tax on it, we would get more money. What
:43:41. > :43:45.is interesting as we have been talking about oil, we are now
:43:45. > :43:49.talking about whisky, the two things that underpin Scottish
:43:49. > :43:53.manufacturing, and the SNP have complained when there has been a
:43:53. > :43:57.tax regime to put up tax on oil, but there is a suggestion that they
:43:57. > :44:04.might do the same with whisky. But they have to be careful because the
:44:04. > :44:11.message to business that comes out of any of this, high taxes on one
:44:11. > :44:16.of Scotland's more successful product, is not particularly good.
:44:16. > :44:19.That advice came from John Keys. Yes, he is a influential voice.
:44:19. > :44:23.is not government policy, but it shows that perhaps what is going
:44:23. > :44:30.around at the back end of Scottish Government thinking as we move
:44:30. > :44:36.towards the river in them. referendum. Thank you for joy in in