:00:15. > :00:18.Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland.
:00:19. > :00:20.Coming up - a U-turn from the Chancellor on plans
:00:21. > :00:23.to raise National Insurance for the self-employed.
:00:24. > :00:26.And independence and the EU - we'll be looking at the polls
:00:27. > :00:33.and trying to get to the bottom of what Scotland's place in Europe.
:00:34. > :00:53.Where next for the Brexit negotiations - after
:00:54. > :00:56.the First Minister announced on Monday that she wanted another
:00:57. > :00:59.And what will Scotland's position be in those negotiations.
:01:00. > :01:01.Charles Grant is director of the Centre for European Reform
:01:02. > :01:03.and a member of Nicola Sturgeon's standing council on Europe
:01:04. > :01:09.I know you weren't very optimistic about the proposals for Scotland to
:01:10. > :01:15.be in the EU while staying in the UK? I thought they would report
:01:16. > :01:17.produced in December was a noble effort to think legally,
:01:18. > :01:23.constitutionally and politically how could this cake is stay in the
:01:24. > :01:26.single market if Scotland leave the UK but it was very difficult to
:01:27. > :01:33.conceive the circumstances in how it could succeed. Partly there are
:01:34. > :01:39.legal problems if Scotland stake and England were to be different, it
:01:40. > :01:43.would be difficult. Partly for political reasons. Spain would be
:01:44. > :01:46.reluctant to give any special deals for Scotland in case the Catalans
:01:47. > :01:50.asked for some special deal on their own so I didn't think it was going
:01:51. > :01:56.to work very easily, the ideas put forward by the present Minister in
:01:57. > :02:02.December. What about now, given what Nicola Sturgeon said earlier this
:02:03. > :02:06.week, if there was an independence referendum before the Brexit
:02:07. > :02:11.negotiations had finished and if Scotland voted for independence,
:02:12. > :02:14.could it in any sense stay in the European Union or would it leave
:02:15. > :02:21.with the rest of the UK and tough to rejoin? I'm afraid it is the latter,
:02:22. > :02:30.because the other EU countries don't recognise any special status for
:02:31. > :02:34.Scotland, supposing there was a referendum in December 2018, Britain
:02:35. > :02:39.is still on the way out and Scotland are partners say in the commission
:02:40. > :02:42.in Brussels say, they would have to apply to rejoin as an independent
:02:43. > :02:48.sovereign state which would take a few years but probably not that many
:02:49. > :02:51.years because your laws are all very -- already crossed the line but the
:02:52. > :02:55.rest of the EU so I think it would be fairly easy. The Spanish would be
:02:56. > :02:58.difficult but I think they would probably not veto Scottish
:02:59. > :03:03.membership. But in that sense if Scotland is going to leave the
:03:04. > :03:05.European Union come what may, it doesn't really from that point of
:03:06. > :03:14.view matter very much when a referendum is. I think the exact
:03:15. > :03:18.timing doesn't matter too much. I do speak that the Budget government but
:03:19. > :03:22.the word here is that Theresa May is unlikely to allow Scotland to have a
:03:23. > :03:28.referendum before Britain has left the EU. I don't know if that is the
:03:29. > :03:34.official position. When will that be? I think it will leave on the 1st
:03:35. > :03:39.of April 2019 exactly two years after Article 50 is invoked. That
:03:40. > :03:46.would be the legal divorce but start but the future relationship and
:03:47. > :03:51.trade agreement between the EU and UK will take many more years to
:03:52. > :03:55.negotiate. You can speak for the British Government, but what does
:03:56. > :03:58.the speculation? Is it that Theresa May will say you can't have a
:03:59. > :04:02.referendum until Britain has formally left the European Union or
:04:03. > :04:05.you can't have a referendum on the Britain has formally left and we
:04:06. > :04:10.know what the new agreement with the EU between Britain and the EU is? I
:04:11. > :04:15.think it will be after Britain has formally left and I suppose Mrs May
:04:16. > :04:21.will try and square the circle by saying we will leave in 2019 April
:04:22. > :04:24.with a divorce settlement and although we won't have negotiated
:04:25. > :04:28.the future free-trade agreement we will have a kind of declaration of
:04:29. > :04:31.the broad outlines of it so she will claim, Mrs May, and that we know
:04:32. > :04:35.roughly what the future relationship will be although many of the most
:04:36. > :04:40.difficult details will require many years of painstaking negotiation.
:04:41. > :04:45.Let's reiterate your own statement. You don't speak that the British
:04:46. > :04:49.Government, but Nicola Sturgeon took everyone by surprise this week but
:04:50. > :04:53.it has also left the British Government an opportunity to reply,
:04:54. > :04:58.so apart from on timing, what would you say because presumably Mrs May
:04:59. > :05:04.would want to come up with some proposal that is along the lines of
:05:05. > :05:08.we're not going to have a hard Brexit, we are not proposing that
:05:09. > :05:11.much different from what you're proposing what are her options to
:05:12. > :05:18.eat do you think? So far the Tory government in London has done little
:05:19. > :05:22.to lean towards the Scottish desire to stay in the single market ought
:05:23. > :05:28.to have some sort of special status within the UK, it is true that the
:05:29. > :05:32.other 27 governments would not be very keen on it but Mrs May has not
:05:33. > :05:38.done much to encourage the Scots. What Ms Sturgeon's declaration a
:05:39. > :05:41.couple of days ago that was hugely for the Brexit talks because now
:05:42. > :05:46.they will be some pressure on Mrs May to go for a softer deal. The
:05:47. > :05:52.moment newly on the pressure is on her to go for a hard Brexit. They
:05:53. > :05:54.organised a respected lobbies, the backbenchers, the Daily Mail, the
:05:55. > :05:59.telegraph, all these newspapers pushing for a clean break with as
:06:00. > :06:02.little connection between Britain and Europe as possible and know you
:06:03. > :06:05.will have the Scottish nationalist government saying the break is very
:06:06. > :06:12.clean and very hard that will increase support for independence in
:06:13. > :06:16.Scotland, so in fact the new situation is some countervailing
:06:17. > :06:19.pressure on Mrs May towards a more moderate exit and we don't know
:06:20. > :06:23.exactly the details yet, much is still to be determined. It will be
:06:24. > :06:29.quite hard but it could be quite hard or extremely hard and that is
:06:30. > :06:32.still up for negotiation. Going back in this conversation a couple of
:06:33. > :06:39.steps, if what you have just said is true and Mrs May will have pressure
:06:40. > :06:45.not to go for as hardy Brexit as she might otherwise have gone for, will
:06:46. > :06:55.we know that to be the case by April 2019? I think we probably will, it
:06:56. > :06:58.is by able 2019 Britain will have completed its divorce settlement and
:06:59. > :07:02.will be legally no member -- no longer a member of the EU and
:07:03. > :07:07.although we won't have finished all the negotiations or the future
:07:08. > :07:11.relationship concerning trade, security, energy, science,
:07:12. > :07:14.universities etc, I think the general direction of travel of those
:07:15. > :07:18.negotiations will be quite clear, because Mrs May wants to come up
:07:19. > :07:21.with at least the broad heading, some sort of framework for the
:07:22. > :07:25.future relationship so although for example whether or not the European
:07:26. > :07:33.Court of Justice would have any say in what happens to Britain during
:07:34. > :07:36.the transitional phase, we will know roughly the rights of EU citizens
:07:37. > :07:39.living in Britain. We will have a pretty strong flavour of how hard
:07:40. > :07:44.the Brexit is though not all the details. We have heard a lot this
:07:45. > :07:47.week of what Mrs May and Miss Sturgeon wants, but the biggest
:07:48. > :07:52.party is by far in this negotiation and the rest of the European Union,
:07:53. > :07:57.are you getting any sense of how they are coming round to approaching
:07:58. > :08:01.the negotiations with Britain, whether their mood is Britain has to
:08:02. > :08:05.be seen to be punished otherwise there is no point in being a member
:08:06. > :08:11.of the European Union or is it, let's try to come to some sort of
:08:12. > :08:15.accommodation? It is both of those elements. For a start, most of them
:08:16. > :08:19.are quite united. There is a strong line said by the French, the
:08:20. > :08:24.Germans, the commission, the Council of ministers to be pretty tough on
:08:25. > :08:28.the Brits. The Brits need to be seen to be doing less well outside the EU
:08:29. > :08:32.than they did inside otherwise what is the point in staying in, others
:08:33. > :08:35.might want to leave. There is a strong desire that economically the
:08:36. > :08:39.British should not get such a good deal as they have now. On the other
:08:40. > :08:44.hand they are not malicious and they don't want to punish us just for the
:08:45. > :08:48.hell of it, but they do want to cooperate on Security and the no
:08:49. > :08:53.Britain can contribute a lot to European defence, counterterrorism,
:08:54. > :08:58.policing etc. They don't want to cut all ties. Once negotiations start,
:08:59. > :09:05.divisions will emerge amongst the 27 and they would be so united. Thank
:09:06. > :09:06.you for joining us. -- won't be so united.
:09:07. > :09:08.The Chancellor has made a U-turn over plans to raise
:09:09. > :09:10.National Insurance contributions for self-employed people -
:09:11. > :09:11.which were announced in last week's Budget.
:09:12. > :09:14.Philip Hammond has told Conservative MPs that while he thought
:09:15. > :09:16.the measures were "fair", he's abandoned the idea
:09:17. > :09:18.after criticism that the decision was in breach of a pledge given
:09:19. > :09:23.Our Westminster correspondent David Porter is with us.
:09:24. > :09:34.This isn't just a U-turn that could be fudged into not being a U-turn,
:09:35. > :09:38.is it? It is almost the platonic ideal of a U-turn. You are quite
:09:39. > :09:44.right. As gold this is pretty dramatic. You virtually hear the
:09:45. > :09:47.tyres screeching around lunch time this morning when a letter from the
:09:48. > :09:51.Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond actually was published in
:09:52. > :09:56.which he said that he would be reversing this tax change which was
:09:57. > :09:59.only announced one week ago today in the Budget about this time he was
:10:00. > :10:03.answering questions on the Budget and he was arguing that he plans to
:10:04. > :10:07.increase National Insurance contributions for the self-employed
:10:08. > :10:12.was an act of fairness to bring taxation in the line but also as
:10:13. > :10:17.world that it would actually bring in much-needed revenue to help boost
:10:18. > :10:21.social care in England and also alleviate some of the business taxes
:10:22. > :10:25.in England. Knock-on consequences for Scotland through the Barnett
:10:26. > :10:29.Formula. Today he has had to come back to House of Commons and said he
:10:30. > :10:34.has had a think and listened to what people said and I am no longer going
:10:35. > :10:38.to do it. It is a major U-turn and there is no way of dressing it up
:10:39. > :10:42.any other way. Normally in budgets when things go wrong it emerges in
:10:43. > :10:49.the days perhaps sometimes weeks after the Budget, this emerged very
:10:50. > :10:51.quickly but normally there is a toing and froing and governments see
:10:52. > :10:57.if they can get away with things if they can ride the storm out. There
:10:58. > :11:00.was a huge amount of protest from backbench Tory MPs and Philip
:11:01. > :11:03.Hammond I think is that he has gone back and looked at the Conservative
:11:04. > :11:09.manifesto and seemed there was a commitment not to increase taxation
:11:10. > :11:11.so he has decided that discretion is the better part of valour and he
:11:12. > :11:17.will not go ahead with the increase. It raises a couple of interesting
:11:18. > :11:20.questions, who was to blame and how in the future will Philip Hammond
:11:21. > :11:25.now fill that gap in the Treasury's coppers? As I understand it, tell me
:11:26. > :11:30.if I am wrong, what they are saying is the reason they are going back on
:11:31. > :11:33.this is because for some unaccountable reason they didn't
:11:34. > :11:36.realise it was in the manifesto not to do this, they are not conceding
:11:37. > :11:41.on the principle of the thing, they are still saying that they think it
:11:42. > :11:45.is the right thing to do to narrow the gap between self-employed and
:11:46. > :11:50.employed people? Perhaps in the next manifesto they will just do that? It
:11:51. > :11:55.is extraordinary. The Treasury is meant to be full of very important
:11:56. > :11:59.people, intelligent important people who when it comes to economics have
:12:00. > :12:02.pointy heads and can come up with all sorts of theories. You would
:12:03. > :12:05.have thought that someone on the Treasury and indeed someone around
:12:06. > :12:11.the Cabinet table when Pope Hammond explained it to his colleagues last
:12:12. > :12:16.week with her said, -- Philip Hammond. But didn't we say something
:12:17. > :12:21.completely different in our manifesto? He would have thought
:12:22. > :12:25.someone would have checked the manifesto. Apparently in days gone
:12:26. > :12:27.by the Treasury mandarins have tried to get this through before and
:12:28. > :12:31.previous Conservative chancellors have said we will not do that
:12:32. > :12:36.because we gave a commitment not to do that. Someone didn't join the
:12:37. > :12:41.dots on this but on the wider question of wanting to equalise the
:12:42. > :12:45.tax regimes between those employed by companies and those who are
:12:46. > :12:48.self-employed, they do want to look at that again and there is a
:12:49. > :12:54.full-bodied of work going on about reporting of that. A key point of
:12:55. > :12:57.this is more people these days are self-employed so if you have a more
:12:58. > :13:02.favourable tax regime for the self-employed they are growing in
:13:03. > :13:06.number and potentially means the Treasury is losing a lot of revenue.
:13:07. > :13:12.But they will now have to try and do is find a way somehow getting this
:13:13. > :13:16.revenue back, probably in the autumn Budget. But my goodness me, they
:13:17. > :13:22.will be under an awful lot of scrutiny. We will join you later. I
:13:23. > :13:26.will not comment on the sunshine not because it is bad luck, but because
:13:27. > :13:30.I am jealous. I am glad you are jealous. It is very nice at the
:13:31. > :13:33.moment but let's not tempt fate. He just tempted fate!
:13:34. > :13:36.To Holyrood now where MSPs are debating a report released
:13:37. > :13:38.at the weekend from the Culture, Tourism and External Affairs
:13:39. > :13:40.Committee on the implications of the EU referendum on Scotland.
:13:41. > :13:42.The Committees' convenor is speaking - let's listen
:13:43. > :13:55.I would also like to thank them for the many briefings they have
:13:56. > :13:57.published on the impact of Brexit on individual sectors within Scotland
:13:58. > :14:01.as well as the specific briefings that they have prepared for the
:14:02. > :14:05.Committee. In conducting our enquiry we aim to hear from stakeholders
:14:06. > :14:09.representing as many sectors as possible as well as individuals
:14:10. > :14:13.affected by Brexit. I am very grateful to all those who gave
:14:14. > :14:17.evidence to the Committee. It didn't our understanding and raised
:14:18. > :14:22.awareness on the implications for Scotland of leaving the EU. We
:14:23. > :14:31.received over 160 written submissions in response to our call
:14:32. > :14:33.for evidence and those views are summarised in one of the reports we
:14:34. > :14:36.are debating today, Brexit, of Scotland thinks. This shows that all
:14:37. > :14:40.sectors of the economy with the notable expections of the catching
:14:41. > :14:44.part of the fishing industry, Brexit is a challenge. Whether the
:14:45. > :14:50.submissions were focused on justice and home affairs, further and higher
:14:51. > :14:53.education, schools and skills, agriculture and food, climate change
:14:54. > :14:56.and the environment, health and sport or equal opportunities and
:14:57. > :15:00.human rights, the overwhelming message was one of concerned and the
:15:01. > :15:03.risks that they identified as lying ahead.
:15:04. > :15:13.There were fears about leaving the single market, losing access to EU
:15:14. > :15:18.funding, the erosion of rights, the huge volume of legislation that
:15:19. > :15:21.would need to be revised, environmental standards and losing
:15:22. > :15:26.EU citizens to work in so many sectors. There was little optimism
:15:27. > :15:34.or sense of opportunity in the evidence we proceed. The report is a
:15:35. > :15:39.summary of Scottish interests and in the years ahead I call on the
:15:40. > :15:43.Scottish and UK governments to recognise those views in all
:15:44. > :15:48.discussions, negotiations and decisions relating to Scotland's
:15:49. > :15:53.future. The report should be a reference point for identifying what
:15:54. > :15:58.is in Scotland's interest. The committee also visited Brussels in
:15:59. > :16:03.July last year and January this year. In July there were still a
:16:04. > :16:09.sense of shock concerning the result of the referendum and uncertainty,
:16:10. > :16:14.but by January the Prime Minister had made her intention to pursue a
:16:15. > :16:18.hard Brexit known, an expert in EU policy were clear about the
:16:19. > :16:24.challenges of the negotiations that lay ahead. These visits were
:16:25. > :16:29.important to give us a perspective on the views from Brussels on the
:16:30. > :16:34.negotiations. The visit in July contributed to our first report in
:16:35. > :16:38.September, which summarised the initial evidence we heard and our
:16:39. > :16:44.conclusion that access to the single market was vital to Scotland. The
:16:45. > :16:49.visit in January extended our understanding of the negotiations to
:16:50. > :16:56.agree a new treaty. In January we published a report, EU migration and
:16:57. > :17:03.EU citizens' writes. The evidence this report brings together provides
:17:04. > :17:07.valuable material on migration patterns and the contribution of EU
:17:08. > :17:15.migrants to the Scottish economy and society. It also considers the
:17:16. > :17:23.rights of the 181,000 EU citizens in Scotland who represent 3.4% of the
:17:24. > :17:28.population, as well as the rights EU citizens enjoy as UK citizens. The
:17:29. > :17:34.withdrawal from the EU has made all our future is uncertain but for no
:17:35. > :17:37.group is this more felt than those EU citizens who live in Scotland and
:17:38. > :17:44.Scots who have made their homes in Europe. With me is the former
:17:45. > :17:54.Scottish shadow secretary, Margaret Curran. Did Nicola Sturgeon take you
:17:55. > :18:01.by surprise? She did. If you asked me six months ago I would have said
:18:02. > :18:04.I did not think a second independent reference would happen, then I
:18:05. > :18:10.thought it was on the cards but I didn't expect it so tightly. I'm not
:18:11. > :18:18.sure it's the right thing. Which way would you vote? I will vote no. I
:18:19. > :18:22.cannot see any argument that persuades me the vote we had last
:18:23. > :18:27.time was wrong, if anything I think it is frustration in Scotland, I'm
:18:28. > :18:34.sure other people have different views but we have so many things to
:18:35. > :18:39.focus on, it issues on education and health and now this for another two
:18:40. > :18:47.years and and other fractious debate. A number of us who were
:18:48. > :18:48.caught between the extremes of the Theresa May government and the
:18:49. > :18:57.Scottish Government. To some extent the ball is in
:18:58. > :19:04.Theresa May's court. What would you do if you were her? Would you say,
:19:05. > :19:10.fine, go ahead, or would you say you can have your referendum but not
:19:11. > :19:15.until Britain is out of the EU, so you know what you are voting on. I
:19:16. > :19:21.cannot imagine a scenario where to reason they would give up any stake
:19:22. > :19:25.in this negotiation. It would be difficult for her to say the
:19:26. > :19:29.Scottish parliament couldn't have a referendum, I think she has a
:19:30. > :19:35.reasonable point to safe if we are going to have this referendum we
:19:36. > :19:41.have to be clear of the terms, clear of the implications so it is
:19:42. > :19:45.reasonable to say, and Nicola Sturgeon has conceded that because
:19:46. > :19:53.it is far away, it will be 2019, from belief -- probably, and we will
:19:54. > :19:59.have some degree of knowledge of what Brexit looks like but I think
:20:00. > :20:05.Theresa May will put a stake in trying to negotiate around the
:20:06. > :20:10.timing, there is a bit of me, I have been in politics along time, I
:20:11. > :20:13.didn't come into it to talk about a referendum, but about health and
:20:14. > :20:17.education and improving people's lives. Tough luck! The wrong
:20:18. > :20:19.generation, perhaps. Today we've got Ivan
:20:20. > :20:22.McKee for the SNP. From the Scottish Conservatives,
:20:23. > :20:24.it's Murdo Fraser. Richard Leonard is from Scottish
:20:25. > :20:37.Labour and Patrick Harvie is Murdo Fraser, you heard us saying
:20:38. > :20:44.about Theresa May's reaction to Nicola Sturgeon, should she just say
:20:45. > :20:50.a few do or say you can have your referendum but not until after we
:20:51. > :20:56.have negotiated with Europe? I don't think Theresa May need any advice
:20:57. > :21:03.from me. But tell us what you think. She will come up with her view. I
:21:04. > :21:06.don't think we need a referendum, there is not public demand, we have
:21:07. > :21:12.been told by the SNP that there should only be a referendum if there
:21:13. > :21:18.is demand for it but I do not see that, but if we are to have another
:21:19. > :21:23.referendum we need to be clear what we are voting on, so we need to be
:21:24. > :21:29.clear what Brexit means for Scotland and the UK together, and also if we
:21:30. > :21:35.did vote for independence, what does that mean for our relationship with
:21:36. > :21:40.the EU? We're not quite clear what the SNP are now saying in relation
:21:41. > :21:45.to EU membership if Scotland became independent and if they are backing
:21:46. > :21:50.off their previous position as it looks like they might be that an
:21:51. > :21:55.independent Scotland would be a full member of the EU, why the aid to
:21:56. > :21:59.writing Scotland out of the EU? What then is the point of an independence
:22:00. > :22:07.referendum if we will not be in the EU after all? I'm sure Ivan McKee is
:22:08. > :22:13.poised to answer that question. If you have another referendum, will
:22:14. > :22:20.the SNP campaign for independence with Scotland to be a full member of
:22:21. > :22:27.the EU? The SNP's position is bigger in favour of EU membership. Full
:22:28. > :22:33.membership? What happens will depend on where we are in the Brexit
:22:34. > :22:37.process. But your campaign for independence would be vote for
:22:38. > :22:43.independence and Scotland will try to become a full member of the EU?
:22:44. > :22:49.Our position is we are in favour of EU membership. What would you say to
:22:50. > :22:53.people around your own party by Kenny MacAskill, who say that
:22:54. > :22:59.doesn't make sense because they third of Yes supporters last time
:23:00. > :23:03.voted to leave the EU and perhaps it isn't that attracted a place to
:23:04. > :23:07.join, they say it would be better to argue for something like joining
:23:08. > :23:13.after and being part of the single market, but what would you replied
:23:14. > :23:19.the? We will campaign for an independent Scotland, that will be
:23:20. > :23:23.the question on the ballot paper, we believe the people of Scotland are
:23:24. > :23:29.best placed to take decisions to run this country. Richard Leonard, what
:23:30. > :23:35.you think the British government's response should be? They will make
:23:36. > :23:42.their own mind up, we haven't even had a vote in the Scottish
:23:43. > :23:46.Parliament. I'm asking your opinion. We don't know what we are being
:23:47. > :23:51.asked to vote on Ibn Edinburgh and until that vote we do not know what
:23:52. > :23:55.the next stage will be, so I will not second-guess what the SNP will
:23:56. > :24:00.put the fourth Parliament and whether there will be amendments to
:24:01. > :24:05.it, on Monday the First Minister spoke about a specific timetable and
:24:06. > :24:11.that would be contentious for some people including those in her own
:24:12. > :24:14.party, we would oppose a second independence referendum because of
:24:15. > :24:21.the divisive nature it brings with it. When you say amendments when she
:24:22. > :24:25.puts this before Parliament, do you mean you will vote against it or do
:24:26. > :24:31.you have some wizard wheeze up your sleeve? I don't how one this
:24:32. > :24:36.afternoon but we will need to see the content of any think before
:24:37. > :24:41.Parliament before deciding our response, but if there is a firm
:24:42. > :24:44.proposal to trigger a second independence referendum, the
:24:45. > :24:52.Scottish Labour Party will oppose that. Patrick Harvie, you will
:24:53. > :24:59.demand no conditions but will say Ness, Nicola, I'll do anything you
:25:00. > :25:03.like. Don't be silly, Gordon, you know the Greens are persistent in
:25:04. > :25:08.opposing the SNP when we think they are wrong, we have a view that our
:25:09. > :25:16.party members have voted in favour of independence and will continue to
:25:17. > :25:21.take that forward. The timing is an important thing to discuss speakers
:25:22. > :25:25.after autumn next year, every other European country will have its
:25:26. > :25:32.chance to ratify a deal that has been negotiated by then pre-dash-mac
:25:33. > :25:36.between the EU and the UK, why should it only be Scotland which
:25:37. > :25:42.doesn't have a choice in that? The UK Government gets a choice on a
:25:43. > :25:49.Brexit deal we did not choose, the EU gets a choice and every other
:25:50. > :25:53.European country, I personally understand why many people regret
:25:54. > :25:58.the fact this is coming back so soon but on that timescale there is
:25:59. > :26:03.uncertainty and delaying it until after 2020 would give us four years
:26:04. > :26:07.of uncertainty instead of two. Let's give Scotland a choice on the same
:26:08. > :26:12.timescale that every other European country will have. Would you
:26:13. > :26:17.encourage Ivan and his colleagues to stick by what he has just said, that
:26:18. > :26:23.the campaign for independence should also campaign for Scotland to be a
:26:24. > :26:29.full member of the EU? I hope the SNP doesn't change its policy on
:26:30. > :26:33.supporting EU membership, that is for them to debate, I see no
:26:34. > :26:38.appetite in the Greens to change from our policy of supporting EU
:26:39. > :26:42.membership and I hope the others who spent the last couple of years
:26:43. > :26:46.arguing that our place is strongest within the EU, that our social,
:26:47. > :26:52.environmental and economic conditions are best met by
:26:53. > :26:55.membership, will continue to advocate that if Scotland decides it
:26:56. > :27:02.wants to make that path as an independent state. Murdo Fraser,
:27:03. > :27:09.both Patrick Harvie and Ivan McKee have answered your questions,
:27:10. > :27:12.haven't they? I don't think the SNP leadership is unequivocal on the
:27:13. > :27:19.issue as Ivan has been, they have kept the door open because there are
:27:20. > :27:24.a lot of people who voted yes in 2014, then voted leave in the EU
:27:25. > :27:31.referendum and are now saying if the choice is to leave the UK but to go
:27:32. > :27:35.back into the EU, they would rather stay in the UK, and the SNP
:27:36. > :27:40.leadership are trying to ride two horses, trying to keep on board
:27:41. > :27:44.people who are in that category but they cannot lose the justification
:27:45. > :27:51.for a referendum because if they will not take us back into the EU,
:27:52. > :27:56.how can they argue for a referendum? What would your pitch be this time?
:27:57. > :28:02.We do not know if it will be yes or no in the same weight as last time
:28:03. > :28:06.but the anti-independence campaign, if there is an agreement between the
:28:07. > :28:11.British government and the EU, would you argue there are still some
:28:12. > :28:15.access to the single market so there is not much difference between what
:28:16. > :28:20.the Scottish Government is proposing and what is agreed between Britain
:28:21. > :28:26.and Europe, so what is the point of a referendum? We want a strong
:28:27. > :28:33.relationship with the EU for all British industry and residents, but
:28:34. > :28:38.the UK domestic market is worth four times to the Scottish economy what
:28:39. > :28:43.the EU single market is worth, so any suggestion we should prefer the
:28:44. > :28:48.EU single market over our relationship with the rest of the UK
:28:49. > :28:55.simply makes no sense in economic or in social terms, so our interest as
:28:56. > :29:00.Scotland are better served being part of the UK, but I'm confident we
:29:01. > :29:06.will have a positive deal for the whole UK with the rest of the EU.
:29:07. > :29:11.Ivan McKee, that will be the challenge for you, even if people
:29:12. > :29:18.agree with you on Brexit and how it has been handled, and how you prefer
:29:19. > :29:24.to be a member of the EU, the problem will be the economics of
:29:25. > :29:26.this, there is no oil money left and Britain is a bigger trade party of
:29:27. > :29:35.Scotland than the EU. I think the UK or what is left out
:29:36. > :29:39.of the UK after Brexit will be trading with the European Union.
:29:40. > :29:46.Scotland will be part of the EU, an independent country that will be in
:29:47. > :29:53.the single market... But that doesn't get you around the economic
:29:54. > :29:58.problems, no oil and a huge deficit. It is icing on the cake according
:29:59. > :30:03.to... Not according to Andrew Wilson. It was baked into the
:30:04. > :30:08.economic forecast. Without oil Scotland GDP per head is the same as
:30:09. > :30:12.the UK average and it is taxed the same as the UK average. The oil is
:30:13. > :30:16.the icing on the cake. But do we want to allow the UK Government to
:30:17. > :30:20.waste any more oil money still to come that they have wasted the last
:30:21. > :30:23.?300 billion of tax revenues from the North Sea that they have had and
:30:24. > :30:29.wasted rather than doing what no did... What exactly is Labour's
:30:30. > :30:33.principal argument against independence these days? It can't be
:30:34. > :30:42.that you would rather be in the European Union. We want to see unity
:30:43. > :30:47.of people across the UK to secure progress of change and we want...
:30:48. > :30:52.But why not unity across Europe? At the level where power lies. Even
:30:53. > :31:00.under the SNP's 2014 prospectus a lot of economic power would still
:31:01. > :31:02.live at a UK level, it is clear we need to intervene democratically at
:31:03. > :31:07.the level where economic power lies and that is the UK. We think that is
:31:08. > :31:10.where we need to be. Back from a socialist point of view why is it
:31:11. > :31:15.better for Scotland to be part of a Britain moving the little England
:31:16. > :31:18.than the part of the European Union and argue its case there? Because I
:31:19. > :31:24.am not so pessimistic and you need to take the long view. This is not
:31:25. > :31:26.just about a referendum on the current Conservative government, it
:31:27. > :31:33.would be about where our place lies in the world and where we set with
:31:34. > :31:37.our biggest trading partner and the economic monetary union we are part
:31:38. > :31:40.of, so it is not simply a matter of whether we like Theresa May or not
:31:41. > :31:45.or whether they climbed down today by the Chancellor was a good or bad
:31:46. > :31:51.thing... It is about a much bigger question. Patrick Harvie, what do
:31:52. > :31:55.you think? Is it a left wing or left of centre position from your point
:31:56. > :31:59.of view? Presumably it is better to be in Europe but not but than in
:32:00. > :32:02.Britain but not Europe? Is a great deal about the EU that can be
:32:03. > :32:06.improved and that must be improved and it could be more democratic and
:32:07. > :32:10.should be and can be and I think many European countries are moving
:32:11. > :32:13.in that direction. But I do think many people if we get to the point
:32:14. > :32:21.of a referendum will be looking at this as a choice of judgment on one
:32:22. > :32:24.path towards membership of the EU and another towards a hard right
:32:25. > :32:29.angry and isolationist Brexit Britain. We will be judging the UK
:32:30. > :32:34.political landscape as it stands now with the Labour Party in disarray
:32:35. > :32:38.and a rather more toxic tone of politics coming from the UK
:32:39. > :32:44.political landscape. Thank you all very much. Let's get that swayed
:32:45. > :32:45.back and the magnificent shot of all standing in a line there.
:32:46. > :32:47.An academic survey suggests that support for independence
:32:48. > :32:50.But the Scottish Social Attitudes survey also indicates
:32:51. > :32:53.a relatively weak commitment to the European Union.
:32:54. > :32:57.The report's author, Professor John Curtice,
:32:58. > :33:00.says that could mean the timing of a further referendum is crucial.
:33:01. > :33:06.He joins us from our studio in London now.
:33:07. > :33:14.John, first ball we should make few caveats. The survey you did on this
:33:15. > :33:19.presumably is several months ago now, is it? It was done in the
:33:20. > :33:22.second half of last year. You are absolutely right. This is not a
:33:23. > :33:26.survey designed to tell you what the weather was yesterday. It is much
:33:27. > :33:33.more about trying to understand climate change. How the mood of
:33:34. > :33:37.Scotland changes over the long run and it is an annual survey but the
:33:38. > :33:41.point is we have at the same question on how Scotland should be
:33:42. > :33:46.governed all the way back to 1999. It is the only time series we have
:33:47. > :33:52.in Scotland by which we can measure how attitudes have changed and, yes,
:33:53. > :33:55.the headline is that where as recently as 2012 support for
:33:56. > :33:59.independence in response to this question was still only at 22% and
:34:00. > :34:03.for much of the early years of devolution it was never much more
:34:04. > :34:09.than between a quarter and a third, now it stands at 46%, so two years
:34:10. > :34:14.on from the first referendum it seems pretty clear that the
:34:15. > :34:18.long-term legacy of the first independence referendum is to
:34:19. > :34:21.produce a Scotland that is much more divided on the constitutional
:34:22. > :34:25.question and on the merits of independence than it was when this
:34:26. > :34:31.whole process began back in 2012. Your findings on Europe were a
:34:32. > :34:35.little bit surprising perhaps. It seems not quite as Euro enthusiastic
:34:36. > :34:39.as we all assumed. I think that is probably the the survey that will
:34:40. > :34:45.surprise people. The truth is we have been saying that magazine from
:34:46. > :34:49.Question Time that Scotland is more Europhile than England but don't
:34:50. > :34:52.exactly traits that are exaggerated. Previously I have suggested that one
:34:53. > :34:56.of the reasons why the vote with the EU was so high in Scotland was not
:34:57. > :35:02.so much to do with people's attitudes towards the EU but rather
:35:03. > :35:06.for SNP supporters being in the EU was part of the independence person
:35:07. > :35:09.and therefore they are putting part of the Independence. Crucially what
:35:10. > :35:16.we're discovering is that many of the people who did vote to remain
:35:17. > :35:20.did do so seemingly without a great deal of enthusiasm. The question we
:35:21. > :35:23.have got here to get at this, it is a question where people are given a
:35:24. > :35:28.range of options ranging from Britain should get out of the
:35:29. > :35:31.European Union through to crucially, the most popular group, Britain
:35:32. > :35:34.should remain in the EU Budget should try to reduce the power of
:35:35. > :35:39.the European Union and then there are options that implied the EU
:35:40. > :35:43.being more powerful. The second option is by far the most popular in
:35:44. > :35:48.Scotland and if you combine that option with the idea of leaving, two
:35:49. > :35:52.thirds of people in Scotland can now be classified as Eurosceptic where
:35:53. > :35:56.in the early years of devolution it was no more than two fifths. So they
:35:57. > :36:00.are turning more sceptical in the long run which we have seen south of
:36:01. > :36:05.the border has also been going on, north of the border as well.
:36:06. > :36:11.Crucially therefore that means a lot of Remain voters, over half, and
:36:12. > :36:16.around two thirds of those Remain voters who voted no in 2014 who
:36:17. > :36:19.should be the crucial swing group, the crucial group amongst whom
:36:20. > :36:24.Nicola Sturgeon is presumably trying to win new builds on the back of the
:36:25. > :36:28.Brexit issue, two thirds of that group are also saying the EU should
:36:29. > :36:32.be less powerful so they don't therefore look like a group for whom
:36:33. > :36:36.the EU is so important that they really like they're going to change
:36:37. > :36:39.mind. The implications of this is having a independence referendum
:36:40. > :36:43.that basically says but for independence so we can rejoin as
:36:44. > :36:47.full members of the European Union isn't necessarily the cleverest way
:36:48. > :36:50.to go about it. Indeed and I think that comes back to conversations we
:36:51. > :36:55.have been having that that is one of the reasons why it sounds as though
:36:56. > :36:59.the Scottish Government is not committing to the position that we
:37:00. > :37:03.want to say to hang on the single market but it is not that we will
:37:04. > :37:08.absolutely try to get Scotland back inside the EU and by also and
:37:09. > :37:12.Patrick are be referred to this, the First Minister on Monday, why
:37:13. > :37:17.already you can see the yes movement trying to widen the argument beyond
:37:18. > :37:21.the question of Brexit, the Labour Party is helpless, if you stay
:37:22. > :37:26.inside the UK we will be run by what is a nasty Tory government for ten
:37:27. > :37:28.or 15 years, is that the teacher you want? They are already trying to
:37:29. > :37:33.widen the argument beyond Brexit and G should appreciate that
:37:34. > :37:39.irrespective of whether the referendum is held to Nicola
:37:40. > :37:42.Sturgeon's timetable or later as the Prime Minister seems to be more
:37:43. > :37:45.inclined, don't expect to be dominated by the issue of Europe and
:37:46. > :37:52.not even from the yes side because I think they want to widen it. So,
:37:53. > :38:00.your survey, opinion polls, we heard a couple yesterday, pro-independence
:38:01. > :38:06.and anti-independence neck and neck. A couple since then, I think one was
:38:07. > :38:11.about 53-47 and one is 57-43 in favour of staying in the UK. What
:38:12. > :38:15.are we to make of this? Everyone was safe that is unmoved independence,
:38:16. > :38:21.does that mean there is a move against it or does not mean
:38:22. > :38:25.anything? That's why you always have to be very careful about building
:38:26. > :38:30.too many sand castles on the sand of one or two opinion polls. The best
:38:31. > :38:35.way I can describe it is that if you take all seven including the two so
:38:36. > :38:40.morning holes that have been conducted since the Theresa May
:38:41. > :38:44.speech at Lancaster house, the average is no 53, yes 47. If you go
:38:45. > :38:49.back to the dozen polls were conducted in the first-half 20 16th
:38:50. > :38:56.immediately before the EU referendum the average was, yes, you have
:38:57. > :39:01.guessed this, no 53, yes 47. Therefore the grizzled message with
:39:02. > :39:04.the opinion polls ties up with that the balance of public opinion in
:39:05. > :39:09.Scotland so far at least has not been affected by the Brexit debate
:39:10. > :39:17.and that yes Makro are going to pull ahead they will have to come the
:39:18. > :39:20.other arguments. Those have switched from no to yes have switched on the
:39:21. > :39:26.other direction and the net effect looks though it has been zero. It is
:39:27. > :39:30.going to be another referendum and has to be a bit about Europe, you
:39:31. > :39:36.can say we're going to have a referendum on leaving the UK because
:39:37. > :39:42.the UK voted to leave Europe but it is not about Europe and we don't
:39:43. > :39:45.want to rejoin. Indeed but I expect, I think that what the Scottish
:39:46. > :39:49.Government will try to go for in the first instance is to try and remain
:39:50. > :39:58.inside the single market possibly through membership... If the
:39:59. > :40:02.referendum is by the spring of 2019 there is no way you can keep
:40:03. > :40:06.Scotland continuously inside the EU. There is not the time. They will not
:40:07. > :40:08.be independent by the time the UK manages to leave so even Nicola
:40:09. > :40:19.Sturgeon's timetable doesn't make that possible but maybe Spain will
:40:20. > :40:22.object less, it might be easier to get into the single market
:40:23. > :40:28.relatively quickly. I am guessing but I wouldn't be entirely surprised
:40:29. > :40:32.if the SNP say perhaps we will have a referendum at some point in the
:40:33. > :40:37.future on whether or not an independent Scotland should become
:40:38. > :40:41.and apply for membership of the European Union. That would be one
:40:42. > :40:52.way of trying to assuage the concerns... You just want referendum
:40:53. > :40:56.after referendum! The reason why the SNP think we have to have a
:40:57. > :40:58.referendum before the country becomes independent is because quite
:40:59. > :41:01.a while ago they said we need to park this issue because otherwise it
:41:02. > :41:07.makes it difficult to win any elections. If there is another
:41:08. > :41:10.issue, long that makes it different for the SNP to win the referendum
:41:11. > :41:14.maybe they will want to park that issue as well. On that bombshell we
:41:15. > :41:23.will have to leave it there stop thank you. Margaret Curran is still
:41:24. > :41:28.with me. Referendum campaigns for now the forever. You think it makes
:41:29. > :41:35.sense? I'm sure there is some thinking going on around that. It is
:41:36. > :41:39.absurd to say that UK, it is such a monumental vote, that membership
:41:40. > :41:46.matter so much we'll go back to referendum two and a half years
:41:47. > :41:51.after... But they can say is that we want to stay in the single market. I
:41:52. > :41:55.understand that. A route to doing that without being a full member of
:41:56. > :41:58.the EU and we think Theresa May is going to rip Britain out and you
:41:59. > :42:02.would be better off in an independent Scotland which is in the
:42:03. > :42:06.single market and we could make up our mind on full membership of the
:42:07. > :42:12.EU later. That is clearly the direction they are heading in
:42:13. > :42:15.because the Scottish attitudes survey is very interesting because
:42:16. > :42:22.this portrayal that I think will show itself, that Scotland is
:42:23. > :42:24.somehow pro-European and very comfortable with being in the
:42:25. > :42:29.European Union and all that brings and England is very difficult --
:42:30. > :42:34.different and the difference is so profound that it is a big argument
:42:35. > :42:36.to separate and the evidence from the survey suggests that isn't a
:42:37. > :42:40.straightforward as people think it is and I do think you'll get the SNP
:42:41. > :42:44.changing tactic about a lot but they still think there are signs that
:42:45. > :42:47.people are saying we're are having another random on a full spammers
:42:48. > :42:56.and you putting us through this again on a -- false premise. There
:42:57. > :43:00.is a bit of it. I don't think that is good enough from the Government.
:43:01. > :43:08.Your old lot are going to have a challenge. I think some of the
:43:09. > :43:12.arguments, as I have said, the arguments he used to be part of the
:43:13. > :43:17.European Union are very similar to the arguments you used to be part of
:43:18. > :43:20.the UK. There are times when you have self-government and you make
:43:21. > :43:24.your own decisions, there are times you share sovereignty and there are
:43:25. > :43:27.times where it is in your economic and international interest to share
:43:28. > :43:36.sovereignty and I think that is part of it. It is absolutely. It is in
:43:37. > :43:39.Scotland's interest to share sovereignty with the European Union
:43:40. > :43:43.and be part of the single market. We would love to come and they will
:43:44. > :43:46.say, do the same with the UK, it is not an option any more. They voted
:43:47. > :43:52.to get out of the EU and we do want to do that. I am not saying it is
:43:53. > :43:55.exactly the same experience. If you get an argument that says you should
:43:56. > :43:58.part of the European Union because they have got such a market with
:43:59. > :44:04.them and you need to influence them, it is a bigger argument so say we
:44:05. > :44:07.have got a shared market with the UK and they make decisions that
:44:08. > :44:10.influence us and we need to be part of that. We will be back with you
:44:11. > :44:12.later on. It was a pretty lively
:44:13. > :44:14.at Prime Minister's Questions today, with the Chancellor's U-turn
:44:15. > :44:17.on National Insurance for the self The Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said
:44:18. > :44:20.the U-turn showed the UK Mr Speaker, I think
:44:21. > :44:31.the Prime Minister should offer an apology for the chaos
:44:32. > :44:34.that her Government has caused during the past week
:44:35. > :44:36.and the stresses caused to the 4.8 million self-employed
:44:37. > :44:52.people in this country. Her friend, the member for other
:44:53. > :44:53.Conway, said so a week ago and it's time that she said so as well.
:44:54. > :44:55.This measure, if carried through, will create
:44:56. > :45:03.What is she going to do to fill that black hole?
:45:04. > :45:08.If the right honourable gentleman is so concerned
:45:09. > :45:10.about balancing the books, why is it Labour Party policy
:45:11. > :45:20.to borrow half a trillion pounds and bankrupt Britain?
:45:21. > :45:22.The Prime Minister can wag her finger as much as she likes.
:45:23. > :45:39.Not discussions, an agreement with the Scottish Government
:45:40. > :45:53.The Prime Minister promised an agreement.
:45:54. > :46:01.Because does she not understand that if she does not secure an agreement
:46:02. > :46:06.before triggering Article 50, if she is not prepared to negotiate
:46:07. > :46:12.on behalf of the Scottish Government and secure membership of the single
:46:13. > :46:21.European market, people in Scotland will have a referendum,
:46:22. > :46:26.We have been in discussions with the Scottish Government
:46:27. > :46:31.and other devolved administrations about the interests that they have.
:46:32. > :46:36.As we prepare, as the United Kingdom government, to negotiate a deal
:46:37. > :46:40.on behalf on the whole United Kingdom,
:46:41. > :46:44.a deal which will be a good deal, not just for England,
:46:45. > :46:46.Wales and Northern Ireland, but for the people
:46:47. > :46:50.of Scotland as well, and as we go forward
:46:51. > :46:56.I think the right honourable gentleman should remember this -
:46:57. > :46:59.Scotland will be leaving the European Union.
:47:00. > :47:02.It will leave the European Union either as a member
:47:03. > :47:05.of the United Kingdom, or with independence,
:47:06. > :47:10.it's very clear with the document that it would not be
:47:11. > :47:15.What we need now is to unite, to come together as a country
:47:16. > :47:18.and to ensure that we can get the best deal for the whole
:47:19. > :47:24.Our First Minister was elected with the largest vote in Scottish
:47:25. > :47:28.parliamentary history, on a manifesto pledge which stated
:47:29. > :47:30.that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold
:47:31. > :47:32.an independence referendum if there was a significant
:47:33. > :47:39.and material change of circumstances like Scotland being taken out
:47:40. > :47:46.My question to the Prime Minister is simple -
:47:47. > :47:48.does she agree that Governments should stick to their manifesto
:47:49. > :47:50.promises and if so, she cannot object to the First Minister
:47:51. > :47:58.I, of course, recognise that there was a vote that took
:47:59. > :48:00.place in the Scottish Parliament and the First Minister was returned
:48:01. > :48:04.as the First Minister of a minority Government.
:48:05. > :48:09.But I would refer the honourable lady to two other
:48:10. > :48:21.In 2014 the Scottish people were given the opportunity to vote
:48:22. > :48:24.as to whether or not they wished to remain in the United Kingdom.
:48:25. > :48:29.They choose that Scotland should remain part of the United Kingdom.
:48:30. > :48:32.And the other vote to take note of is that on June 23rd last year,
:48:33. > :48:35.the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union,
:48:36. > :48:42.To Westminster now, where our correspondent David Porter
:48:43. > :48:57.I have, you didn't mention the weather but I will mention it, it is
:48:58. > :49:02.a beautiful day and the sun shines on the righteous. Let me introduce
:49:03. > :49:10.our panel, one Lord and three MPs, one Jeremy and three people called
:49:11. > :49:17.Ian. Ian Murray for Labour, Iain Stewart for the Conservatives. Iain
:49:18. > :49:21.Stewart, a tax that wasn't introduced at a policy that only
:49:22. > :49:29.lasted a week. One heck of a U-turn today. At least it was quick. It was
:49:30. > :49:37.the right decision. The Chancellor was addressing an important issue in
:49:38. > :49:40.changes in National Insurance contributions, I wasn't especially
:49:41. > :49:45.happy with the rise but we are still dealing with a budget deficit, I
:49:46. > :49:49.think the Chancellor was right to listen to colleagues and make the
:49:50. > :49:53.change quickly to remove any uncertainty and he's right to look
:49:54. > :49:59.at the whole package in the round. Ian Murray, it seemed it was Tory
:50:00. > :50:05.backbenchers who brought this change about. We voted against this change
:50:06. > :50:11.in the budget last night so we opposed it. Only seven days from
:50:12. > :50:16.John Stevenson standing here defending the National Insurance
:50:17. > :50:21.rise, this is an embarrassing U-turn and the leaked letter to
:50:22. > :50:26.backbenchers saying it was not a manifesto promise is fudging the
:50:27. > :50:33.truth to them, this is insulting to self-employed people, the rule is
:50:34. > :50:37.always the case that the loader Tory backbenchers cheer a budget, the
:50:38. > :50:44.quicker it unravels. The pass the tax, the caravan tax, this is
:50:45. > :50:46.embarrassing for the Chancellor and I bet he regrets talking about
:50:47. > :50:53.Norman Lamont at the start of his speech. He said it was because it
:50:54. > :50:57.was a broken manifesto commitment but paid 76 of the Conservative
:50:58. > :51:05.Party manifesto commits to mint taint access to the single market. I
:51:06. > :51:09.hope for a U-turn on that. Ian Blackford, the U-turn has been made
:51:10. > :51:13.but there are still a question of how he fills that gap in the
:51:14. > :51:20.coffers. He will still have to tax elsewhere. There is a ?2 billion
:51:21. > :51:25.hole in the budget as a consequence of this, it unravelled overnight and
:51:26. > :51:32.now we see the Prime Minister and the chance of coming to the deal,
:51:33. > :51:36.this is no way to run a country and the Chancellor of the X said last
:51:37. > :51:40.week they would be ?350 million extra for Scotland but as a
:51:41. > :51:46.consequence of this, will our budget be cut? There is no indication he
:51:47. > :51:53.will reduce the Barnet consequentials. He has not been able
:51:54. > :51:57.to answer that question, there would have been consequentials as an
:51:58. > :52:05.answer to this. This Government has lost control of the economy. We need
:52:06. > :52:08.to invest in jobs, to show as the UK comes out of Brexit there is
:52:09. > :52:15.confidence to invest in this country, that is not happening, it
:52:16. > :52:18.is a failed Chancellor. Jeremy Purvis, I would not expect you to
:52:19. > :52:23.defend the Chancellor had this idea of equalising between the
:52:24. > :52:28.self-employed and the employed, it has some merit. The self-employed do
:52:29. > :52:35.not have the same rights as those who are employed, there are still a
:52:36. > :52:39.distinction between the two categories, we recognised that when
:52:40. > :52:43.in coalition and focused on reducing the tax burden, and now the
:52:44. > :52:51.Conservatives saw a chance to hammer what would have been up to 200,000
:52:52. > :52:55.people across Scotland, a ?16 million tax increase this year and
:52:56. > :53:00.Ruth Davidson endorsed at and double down on supporting it, so she needs
:53:01. > :53:03.to apologise to people across Scotland for the Scottish
:53:04. > :53:09.Conservatives supporting this, now the Government has admitted they had
:53:10. > :53:14.broken a promise, they rightly corrected it but when the House of
:53:15. > :53:18.Lords defeated their attempt to reduce support for those on tax
:53:19. > :53:24.credit, they said it was a constitutional crisis. Now they have
:53:25. > :53:30.acknowledged a big mistake. The tax issue the big issue of the day,
:53:31. > :53:36.probably the issue of the week for everyone in Scottish politics, the
:53:37. > :53:41.announcement by Nicola Sturgeon that she wants a second independence
:53:42. > :53:46.referendum. From the UK Government's perspective done here, will you
:53:47. > :53:52.allow the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum? That decision is
:53:53. > :53:57.above my personal pay grade but there is no need for this
:53:58. > :54:01.referendum. Nicola Sturgeon should roll back on what she has announced,
:54:02. > :54:07.it is causing massive uncertainty to lots of people. The Scottish
:54:08. > :54:12.business community are worried about this uncertainty. Do the sensible
:54:13. > :54:18.thing and take this off the table. Ian Murray, you were against a
:54:19. > :54:23.second referendum but it is coming. It looks like it is a matter of when
:54:24. > :54:28.rather than if, but the two things that need to happen or that the
:54:29. > :54:33.Scottish Parliament have to pass this. We do not need another
:54:34. > :54:39.referendum, we had enough division, we need to start ringing the country
:54:40. > :54:44.back together and you cannot compound what is a bad decision in
:54:45. > :54:48.terms of Brexit with an even worse decision to rip Scotland out of the
:54:49. > :54:53.UK, it doesn't make sense to turn your back on your biggest partner,
:54:54. > :55:00.whether trade, cultural or political, and turned the so we will
:55:01. > :55:03.vote against it next week and I hope the First Minister will do the
:55:04. > :55:08.decent thing and get back to dealing with the day job in terms of the big
:55:09. > :55:12.issues of the Scottish Parliament. Public services are crumbling, the
:55:13. > :55:19.economy is lagging behind the rest of the UK, that should be her focus.
:55:20. > :55:25.Your opponents say it is a distraction but also there seems to
:55:26. > :55:29.be inconsistency and that the SNP says because of Brexit Scotland
:55:30. > :55:35.needs another referendum but reports from Edinburgh suggest that an
:55:36. > :55:43.independent Scotland made not want to go back into the EU immediately.
:55:44. > :55:45.Our position is clear, we asked Westminster to respect the situation
:55:46. > :55:52.and that the people of Scotland voted to remain in Europe last year
:55:53. > :55:56.and what the reason may promised us, they would consult and take on board
:55:57. > :56:00.the views of the devolved administrations in Northern Ireland,
:56:01. > :56:04.Scotland and Wales, and the Government has refused to do that.
:56:05. > :56:10.We will be dragged out of Europe against our will, a hard Tory Brexit
:56:11. > :56:13.that will threaten jobs and prosperity, and its rich to hear
:56:14. > :56:20.Conservatives talk about uncertainty because the OBR last week made it
:56:21. > :56:24.clear that Brexit is causing that uncertainty. We are seeking to
:56:25. > :56:29.protect jobs and investment and the best way of doing that is protecting
:56:30. > :56:36.our place in the single market, making sure we retain membership of
:56:37. > :56:39.the EU, it is about making sure there are jobs, prosperity and
:56:40. > :56:44.growth and Westminster has to respect the wishes of the Scottish
:56:45. > :56:49.people and I would say to Ian, there is a big question because if the
:56:50. > :56:53.Scottish parliament votes for this, the people of Scotland should be
:56:54. > :56:58.given that choice and Labour have to learn from last time about allying
:56:59. > :57:04.themselves with Tories, that will deepen the damage to their own brand
:57:05. > :57:09.in Scotland. If a second independence referendum happens,
:57:10. > :57:16.from the Conservatives and from Labour's point of view, do you try
:57:17. > :57:21.and coalesce around one message, one better to be a message or by those
:57:22. > :57:27.days gone? That's on the assumption it will go ahead. Liberal Democrat
:57:28. > :57:31.MSP 's are clear in their opposition to this because there is a world of
:57:32. > :57:36.difference between where we are now and where we were before the
:57:37. > :57:41.referendum. That referendum took place after cross sided --
:57:42. > :57:45.cross-party agreement would said both sides would respect the result.
:57:46. > :57:54.The SNP have breached that. That's not true. Now we have a proposition
:57:55. > :58:00.that Scotland will not retain full EU membership. We have to leave it
:58:01. > :58:06.there. I'm reminded about the gag about London buses, you wait ages
:58:07. > :58:10.for one to come along and now with people called Ian, you wait ages for
:58:11. > :58:13.one on College Green and then three come across at once.
:58:14. > :58:27.He's in good form today! He's always inform. Philip Hammond...
:58:28. > :58:35.Embarrassing. Not his best day but he will get away with this. It
:58:36. > :58:40.depends on Tory internal politics. Clearly the knives were out for him,
:58:41. > :58:47.and how he could possibly not know it was a manifesto... Everyone had
:58:48. > :58:50.forgotten about it. He made a complete U-turn to get out of it. We
:58:51. > :58:52.will have to leave it there. First Minister's Questions
:58:53. > :58:54.is tomorrow at midday. Scotland is coming out
:58:55. > :59:03.of the European Union But Alan Little asks whether
:59:04. > :59:08.Brexit could break up Britain too. Which union do you want
:59:09. > :59:10.to leave more? The British one
:59:11. > :59:19.or the European one? and given us a chance to be part
:59:20. > :59:19.of the BBC's News Team. Young people
:59:20. > :59:22.from all over the country have been getting involved
:59:23. > :59:24.in BBC School Report. We've been doing interviews
:59:25. > :59:27.about news and sport, and some of us have
:59:28. > :59:30.even made our own news bulletins. we've been telling the stories
:59:31. > :59:35.that matter to us. and given us a chance to be part
:59:36. > :59:42.of the BBC's News Team. and read and watch our reports
:59:43. > :59:46.online and across BBC News.