:00:15. > :00:16.Good afternoon and welcome to Politics Scotland.
:00:17. > :00:22.Nicola Sturgeon warns Brexit could mean a Tory takeover -
:00:23. > :00:26.Leave campaigners say it's "Project McFear".
:00:27. > :00:35.MSPs will debate how to support jobs in the oil and gas industry.
:00:36. > :00:42.And here at Westminster, MPs prepare to return to constituencies to
:00:43. > :00:44.prepare for that EU referendum. We will be talking to both sides in the
:00:45. > :00:48.argument. Nicola Sturgeon has provoked fierce
:00:49. > :00:51.controversy as she warned that a vote to leave the EU could lead
:00:52. > :00:54.to cuts in Scottish spending, jobs Jim Sillars, the former SNP deputy
:00:55. > :00:59.leader, said she was resorting Our political editor, Brian Taylor,
:01:00. > :01:02.joins me from Holyrood. Brian, what's behind
:01:03. > :01:13.the First Minister's argument? It is intriguing because you have a
:01:14. > :01:17.series of interlinking political arguments going on. We had George
:01:18. > :01:22.Osborne, the Chancellor, standing alongside Alistair Darling, Mr
:01:23. > :01:27.Osborne sane economic forecasts suggesting there will be a ?20
:01:28. > :01:34.billion cut to Britain's economy as a result of Brexit. He says it will
:01:35. > :01:39.mean anonymity budget, taxes up, spending down. Nicola Sturgeon
:01:40. > :01:41.Baxter gloomy prognosis as a consequence of Brexit but says it
:01:42. > :01:46.wouldn't be George Osborne in a position to do that. She says a
:01:47. > :01:51.Britain leaves the EU in a referendum, David Cameron would have
:01:52. > :01:55.to go, George Osborne with him and that the Sturgeon said it would be
:01:56. > :02:01.replaced, the replacements would be Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, to the
:02:02. > :02:09.right of the Conservative Party. She said there would be enthusiastic
:02:10. > :02:15.cuts in spending, put in by the UK Government with an impact in
:02:16. > :02:19.Scotland. That raises concerns about workers's writes, but public
:02:20. > :02:25.spending and redhead Scotland hard. If you don't want to come out of the
:02:26. > :02:30.EU and lose the benefits of the market, if you don't want to see
:02:31. > :02:34.that political direction, it is important to bode remain in big
:02:35. > :02:40.numbers. If we do that here, we can help win that case across the UK.
:02:41. > :02:45.Nicola is a great First Minister, but I am disappointed that she is
:02:46. > :02:52.now adopting the same tactic as Cameron a, which is trying to drive
:02:53. > :03:00.people into the remain aside out of unjustified fear. You heard Jim
:03:01. > :03:04.Sellers there, who was of a former Conservative MSP. Internationalist
:03:05. > :03:09.from the left, you have a conservative from the right, both
:03:10. > :03:14.arguing for leave, are growing Scotland and the UK with the taken
:03:15. > :03:20.charge of their own destiny, arguing new powers would accrue to Scotland,
:03:21. > :03:25.dismissed by the other side. Perhaps an extra nation about what Nicola
:03:26. > :03:30.Sturgeon is attempting to do. It is about the Tories, but it is trying
:03:31. > :03:35.to get the argument of them, by talking about the Conservatives, she
:03:36. > :03:39.is trying to put a dog whistle to those not conservative, saying to
:03:40. > :03:48.them, you don't trust George Osborne, I don't trust them either.
:03:49. > :03:51.She is trying to say that you can be sceptical about George Osborne, you
:03:52. > :03:55.can be sceptical about David Cameron, but that doesn't mean you
:03:56. > :04:01.should go necessarily into the league camp. It is a remain pitch
:04:02. > :04:06.aimed at those who are not conservative, who are
:04:07. > :04:09.anti-Conservative, lost the sisters -- who are suspicious.
:04:10. > :04:13.My guest for today is the political commentator Hamish Macdonell.
:04:14. > :04:22.This is getting closer than anyone believed. What is interesting about
:04:23. > :04:25.today's events is how the messages have changed, or how the way the
:04:26. > :04:30.today's events is how the messages message has been put out. If you
:04:31. > :04:34.remember back to the start, Nicola Sturgeon's message was, let's have a
:04:35. > :04:38.positive campaign, anything is positive and she had a go at the
:04:39. > :04:42.negative tactics are people on her own site. You will be forgiven as
:04:43. > :04:47.looking at today and thinking, isn't that negative as well? It is
:04:48. > :04:52.symptomatic of how the polls have closed, and as they have, and as
:04:53. > :04:57.there has been more panic spreading within the remain camp, so they have
:04:58. > :05:00.all seemed to be gone and adopted more negative approaches including
:05:01. > :05:09.Nicola Sturgeon. Perhaps remember what they called project the works.
:05:10. > :05:14.There is that. We all know it worked. Nicola Sturgeon may not like
:05:15. > :05:17.it, but they were on the receiving end, they saw it worked and they
:05:18. > :05:22.felt had worked on the day after the referendum. The one difference with
:05:23. > :05:26.the independence referendum is you had all these companies coming out
:05:27. > :05:31.in the last week, saying we'd have to move out of Scotland. I'm not
:05:32. > :05:37.sure remain have not left in their armoury. They have fired all the
:05:38. > :05:45.bullets. We will wait and see. We had Rolls-Royce yesterday saying
:05:46. > :05:48.that you had to vote for remain a Britain's biggest manufacturer. And
:05:49. > :05:54.then there was JCB doing the opposite last week. With all this,
:05:55. > :05:58.the businesses have already declared. We've seen all of them
:05:59. > :06:06.declare, there will be one or two to come. It has been a long campaign, I
:06:07. > :06:13.haven't kept touch with which businesses are on which side. Have
:06:14. > :06:19.you? No, but they will be hoping for a lot of big multinational companies
:06:20. > :06:23.who might actually be understandably rather reluctant to commit, but they
:06:24. > :06:29.will want them to come out. We will see that and something else, there
:06:30. > :06:33.has to be something left that Remain has, in the sense we have the barrel
:06:34. > :06:39.in the days before the referendum. They must have something in their
:06:40. > :06:42.armoury. We will be back with you in a moment.
:06:43. > :06:43.Earlier this afternoon the Labour Party led
:06:44. > :06:45.the debate in the chamber, calling for renewed
:06:46. > :06:48.action to support jobs in the oil and gas industry.
:06:49. > :07:00.Labour's finance spokesperson, Jackie Baillie, started the debate.
:07:01. > :07:07.The Scottish economy is facing an insurgent future. Over the past
:07:08. > :07:11.week, several respected organisations have cast doubt on
:07:12. > :07:16.Scotland's Pross backs for economic growth in the coming year. I hope
:07:17. > :07:24.they are wrong -- prospects. Hope is simply not enough. We need action,
:07:25. > :07:29.not complacency. The instant viewing Scottish item has downgraded its
:07:30. > :07:34.forecast for GDP growth the 2016 to 1.2%, and they note the continued
:07:35. > :07:39.gap between Scottish and UK growth. What they also tell us is that the
:07:40. > :07:44.gap is growing and the difference has been much larger than in
:07:45. > :07:47.previous years. This followed comments by the Scottish
:07:48. > :07:52.Government's own chief economist, highlighting the pace of growth in
:07:53. > :07:59.Scotland last year at 1.9% was significantly below that of 2014,
:08:00. > :08:06.which grew at a rate of 2.7%. Today there is a suggestion coming from
:08:07. > :08:11.respected economists that we might even be on the very brink of a
:08:12. > :08:17.recession. Not something any of us would want to see. A slowdown in
:08:18. > :08:22.growth, underpinned some of the recent increases in unemployment and
:08:23. > :08:24.drops in employment, figures published today show that there's
:08:25. > :08:31.been a drop in employment levels in published today show that there's
:08:32. > :08:37.Scotland, the only area of the UK to register the fall. We must not allow
:08:38. > :08:41.this to develop into a trend, and meanwhile, construction and
:08:42. > :08:44.manufacturing, oil and gas, as you would expect, have all reported
:08:45. > :08:51.reduced activity and business optimism has plummeted. Indeed.
:08:52. > :09:02.In the interests of balance, which you welcome in those same figures
:09:03. > :09:06.the 11,000 new people who got jobs? I always welcome good news, but the
:09:07. > :09:09.thing that troubles me is the Cabinet secretary only wants to talk
:09:10. > :09:14.about the small things that are good and doesn't recognise the overall
:09:15. > :09:17.picture, because unless we recognise that overall picture, we won't
:09:18. > :09:24.intervene appropriately to stop the economy falling into recession. It
:09:25. > :09:27.is that serious. The Bank of Scotland published on Monday
:09:28. > :09:32.confirmed that the private sector in Scotland contract it in May,
:09:33. > :09:37.Gloucester difference from April to May may indeed be slight, it is a
:09:38. > :09:42.worrying sign of overall contraction. I urge the government
:09:43. > :09:47.to bring a sharper, more urgent focus to their efforts to grow the
:09:48. > :09:52.economy. If we are to avoid some of the very legitimate concerns about a
:09:53. > :09:56.recession and unemployment increasingly becoming a reality. If
:09:57. > :10:01.they do so, they will have the full support of this side of the chamber.
:10:02. > :10:05.And of course oil and gas are critically important sectors of our
:10:06. > :10:09.economy, an industry we all support with highly skilled workers that
:10:10. > :10:16.work in challenging conditions. But there is no doubt be oil prices has
:10:17. > :10:23.had a devastating impact. Give way. As you mentioned oil and gas, could
:10:24. > :10:29.you clarify for those who wrote the Labour Party seeking to draw
:10:30. > :10:33.attention to the confusion, her colleague suggested the Labour Party
:10:34. > :10:38.are against fossil fuels, Jackie Baillie suggesting the Labour Party
:10:39. > :10:43.are in favour. When will they make up their minds? There's no confusion
:10:44. > :10:47.on our part, I'm happy to explain in words of once the ball to Murdo
:10:48. > :10:51.Fraser as I see what the Labour Party position is. We are in favour
:10:52. > :10:57.of a balanced energy mix, we want to move to a low carbon economy, I hope
:10:58. > :11:03.we all share this aspiration. I have to say to you, oil and gas are
:11:04. > :11:10.important to our economy, we recognise that. There are 2.6
:11:11. > :11:16.million people in employment in Scotland, close to a record high and
:11:17. > :11:20.an increase of 140,000 since 2010. The labour market statistics
:11:21. > :11:26.illustrate we can't be complacent and I agree with Jackie Baillie, we
:11:27. > :11:31.face headwinds in economic troubles. We will publicise a new market
:11:32. > :11:37.strategy to ensure everyone has skills and opportunities to gain
:11:38. > :11:41.well paid and secure employment. We deliver 25,000 apprenticeships last
:11:42. > :11:44.year and are committed to provide 30000 by 2020, helping young people
:11:45. > :11:50.to get skills and training to get into work.
:11:51. > :11:56.We will now work with schools to inspire more young people into
:11:57. > :12:01.science, technology, engineering and maths to get them the skills they
:12:02. > :12:05.need. We will make sure people who are unemployed get training to get
:12:06. > :12:09.back into jobs. Training is essential, both of those nearest the
:12:10. > :12:17.labour market and those who faced barriers. 50,000 training places
:12:18. > :12:22.have been delivered, and a further 11,650 places will be provided this
:12:23. > :12:27.year. Two weeks ago, I had to some of other concerns, pointing to data
:12:28. > :12:31.how certain sectors were struggling. What is concerning is a growing
:12:32. > :12:37.economic gap between our performance and Scotland and the rest of the UK.
:12:38. > :12:41.As Jackie Baillie said, we have new data today with the employment rate
:12:42. > :12:48.in Scotland now down below the UK average, and a warning, a stark
:12:49. > :12:53.warning from a well respected economic body that our economy is
:12:54. > :12:56.floating with recession. We had new output figures for the conception
:12:57. > :13:04.industry show activity in the private sector fell over the 12
:13:05. > :13:08.months to March 2016 to its lowest level since 1988. The Scottish
:13:09. > :13:14.building Federation and property Federation in response highlighted
:13:15. > :13:17.the government changes to empty property rates for industrial
:13:18. > :13:23.property as a potential cause of the slump in bud. Last year the Scottish
:13:24. > :13:26.Conservatives warned these changes, which would bring empty industrial
:13:27. > :13:31.properties within the remit of business rates, would lead to a
:13:32. > :13:34.shrinkage in the supply of commercial and industrial premises
:13:35. > :13:38.available, and halt the construction of spec that of the elements. It
:13:39. > :13:43.appears these fears are already being realised. It illustrates how
:13:44. > :13:47.the policies of the Scottish Government have a detrimental impact
:13:48. > :13:48.on the opportunity the Scottish economic growth and Scotland's
:13:49. > :13:50.economic reforms. And we'll be back to hear more from
:13:51. > :13:53.that debate a little later. Let's cross to the Garden
:13:54. > :14:10.Lobby in Parliament. We have Miller Smith -- Murdo
:14:11. > :14:14.Fraser, Colin Smith. We heard the labour saying everything is awful,
:14:15. > :14:19.but what precisely is it you are proposing to do? Today's debate,
:14:20. > :14:26.Labour put forward a number of constructive proposals to boost oil
:14:27. > :14:34.and gas industries. It will have seen a loss of 120,000 jobs by this
:14:35. > :14:40.year. This causes the economy to do badly. That's why we put forward
:14:41. > :14:43.their proposals. So far, that has only helped 100 people, and we need
:14:44. > :14:49.more action from the government. Labour have been positive. Your
:14:50. > :14:54.answer to the crisis in the oil and gas industry is to have a review of
:14:55. > :15:01.a training programme? Not at all, we put forward a proposals. Most
:15:02. > :15:06.proposals, because we recognise if we have to improve the economy, we
:15:07. > :15:13.need to regenerate the oil and gas industry and put back those jobs.
:15:14. > :15:18.The government have been complacent by refusing to face up to those
:15:19. > :15:26.problems. How is a summit with trade union supposed to do anything? It is
:15:27. > :15:36.about bringing everyone together to sort out those solutions. That's why
:15:37. > :15:46.a number of people -- you are proposing a talking shop? That is
:15:47. > :15:49.not what the motion is. The reality is, people need to work together to
:15:50. > :15:55.find solutions to rebuild the economy. The Labour market figures
:15:56. > :16:01.have shown employment in Scotland has fallen by 40 8000. It is the
:16:02. > :16:12.only part of the UK that has seen that -- 40 8000. Do you have any
:16:13. > :16:15.ideas about what could be done about the oil and gas industry which you
:16:16. > :16:21.think of better than what Colin Smith has said? We have done a
:16:22. > :16:25.number of things. We have but 12 noon pounds into a training fund, we
:16:26. > :16:37.are working to create jobs -- ?12 million. We are calling on the UK
:16:38. > :16:50.Government to move forward with a loan guarantee, which they haven't
:16:51. > :16:52.moved forward on. There are issues with a number of job losses, more
:16:53. > :17:00.moved forward on. There are issues than 100,000 jobs. That is a
:17:01. > :17:05.consequence of the state of the industry and the drop in oil price.
:17:06. > :17:13.It is often the labour market statistics which have fallen... I'm
:17:14. > :17:16.not clear what you are proposing to do apart from asking. You have told
:17:17. > :17:22.us you asked the British government to do something, but you've not said
:17:23. > :17:27.what you will do. We have created the transition training fund,
:17:28. > :17:34.invested ?12 million to work with people who are facing difficulties.
:17:35. > :17:43.You think a ?12 million training fund is an adequate think which
:17:44. > :17:48.mocks aye that is what we have done. I am mentioned in multi-million
:17:49. > :17:55.pounds investment by Siemens to create jobs. Frankly, don't dismiss
:17:56. > :18:00.the UK Government because when it comes to the North Sea sector, the
:18:01. > :18:06.UK Government controls most of the tax, all the tax levers, and it is
:18:07. > :18:11.important they step up to the plate. Murdo Fraser, do you have any
:18:12. > :18:19.specific ideas? The UK Government is delivering. The UK Government's
:18:20. > :18:23.response has been praised by the industry, so be in no doubt the tax
:18:24. > :18:28.changes have been delivered and are providing help. There's one specific
:18:29. > :18:33.thing that could be done, because the Bank of Scotland report told us
:18:34. > :18:36.52% of large companies who the opportunities to diversify into
:18:37. > :18:41.unconventional oil and gas. The opportunities from are currently
:18:42. > :18:46.outside Scotland because of the Scottish Government's mandatory on
:18:47. > :18:50.fracking, which prevents us from getting any jobs created. We think
:18:51. > :18:55.the government should listen to their own scientists, who produced a
:18:56. > :18:59.report nearly two years ago saying unconventional gas could be
:19:00. > :19:03.exploited in Scotland safely. Rather than dithering and sitting on the
:19:04. > :19:10.fence, they need to get off the fence and allow industries to be
:19:11. > :19:16.developed. You want fracking. Doesn't Murdo Fraser have a point
:19:17. > :19:21.crash mark we have 100,000 jobs lost in the oil and gas industry. You and
:19:22. > :19:27.the Labour Party are running around saying we can't have this travel
:19:28. > :19:32.fracking. It is the most practical issue, surely, in the short term to
:19:33. > :19:37.provide jobs and investment that could mitigate the effects of what
:19:38. > :19:40.is happening. On a jobs front, it might be the case. We have
:19:41. > :19:47.is happening. On a jobs front, it international agreements in place
:19:48. > :19:49.following the Paris climate pact. We need to leave around two thirds of
:19:50. > :19:53.following the Paris climate pact. We the known reserves of oil and gas in
:19:54. > :19:58.the ground, never mind the new reserves that maybe there that could
:19:59. > :20:01.be exploited by fracking. What we are: Paul as a start now is a
:20:02. > :20:13.transition to fossil free Scotland transition to fossil free Scotland
:20:14. > :20:20.-- what we are calling on now. We need to transition now, to plan for
:20:21. > :20:26.a future. Transition to what? We have lots of wind turbines, we've
:20:27. > :20:30.done that. We've barely started. The potential is enormous, and the
:20:31. > :20:33.critical thing is to get the investment that all other parties
:20:34. > :20:39.want to continue to go into oil and gas to get those billions of pounds
:20:40. > :20:44.into the renewables sector, because know wind and tidal power, we hatch
:20:45. > :20:53.and has potential but it needs investment. It is a choice about
:20:54. > :20:57.where we that investment. -- we have Jim and this potential.
:20:58. > :21:11.The overriding goal is a permanent and irreversible reduction to our
:21:12. > :21:16.public goods, services and Social Security. If the Conservatives in
:21:17. > :21:19.this chamber want to do something useful for the Scottish economy,
:21:20. > :21:24.they should urge their colleagues in London to ditch this damaging
:21:25. > :21:25.posterity measure in favour of investment in things like innovation
:21:26. > :21:35.The UK Government controls the and education.
:21:36. > :21:39.The UK Government controls the funding levers so it must take the
:21:40. > :21:44.action needed to protect businesses and jobs. In Scotland we plan to
:21:45. > :21:48.take a different approach with the powers we do have, to maximise
:21:49. > :21:58.investment in infrastructure, skills, drive innovation, boost
:21:59. > :22:04.exports and drive more inclusive growth where we can. We plan a
:22:05. > :22:06.can-do innovation for as part of a stress -- of a sustained national
:22:07. > :22:14.programme. We will prioritise infrastructure investment over the
:22:15. > :22:19.next Parliament, designed to help build Scotland's future. Our
:22:20. > :22:29.infrastructure plans will support around 30,000 jobs, with projects
:22:30. > :22:34.across the country including roads, ferries, schools and health care
:22:35. > :22:43.facilities. Work is under way at the Edinburgh Royal Infirmary site and
:22:44. > :22:47.the Department of neurological sciences. The case for austerity is
:22:48. > :22:56.bankrupt and it is time for the UK to catch up with the thinking on
:22:57. > :22:59.this matter in the rest of Europe. There are many new faces and voices
:23:00. > :23:08.in this Parliament and we have heard another one of them today. Her first
:23:09. > :23:15.speech in this Parliament was an excellent one. One of the things
:23:16. > :23:20.that those of us familiar with this Parliament -- Parliament will be
:23:21. > :23:26.familiar with is the habit John Swinney had in the last Parliament.
:23:27. > :23:31.In the years since the recession of 2008, Scotland has done rather well.
:23:32. > :23:37.The economic figures were very encouraging but as time went on,
:23:38. > :23:41.month by month, some months Scotland would do better than the rest of the
:23:42. > :23:46.UK, other months the rest of the UK would do better than Scotland. Of
:23:47. > :23:51.course John Swinney in the months when Scotland had done better would
:23:52. > :23:55.stand up and take credit for this advancement. The following month,
:23:56. > :24:00.when the figures were the other way around, he would stand up and blame
:24:01. > :24:06.the UK Government or George Osborne for Scotland's problems. The truth
:24:07. > :24:10.was that Scotland and the rest of the UK were perhaps slightly out of
:24:11. > :24:15.kilter but year on year we were achieving the same things. The
:24:16. > :24:21.problem we face now is that we are no longer aligned, Scotland and the
:24:22. > :24:24.rest of the UK have begun to diverged and the figures are
:24:25. > :24:35.demonstrating that each month as they are published.
:24:36. > :24:41.I am not sure if I was threatened with losing my job in the oil and
:24:42. > :24:47.gas industry I would be terribly reassured! I think all of the
:24:48. > :24:53.parties would accept, or hope that they would accept, that there is
:24:54. > :24:57.very little that can be done. There have been huge, complex global
:24:58. > :25:00.changes and a devolved government, even the UK Government, there is
:25:01. > :25:06.only so much it can do to fight against those, so what the parties
:25:07. > :25:09.have to start looking for is what happens next, where do they try to
:25:10. > :25:15.get the jobs being lost in oil and gas, because they can't affect the
:25:16. > :25:18.oil price. There is this thing in political debate, particularly in
:25:19. > :25:22.Scotland, where everybody has to pretend that somehow the government
:25:23. > :25:27.can do something about the economy. Governments can affect the economy
:25:28. > :25:34.threw economic policies at Westminster but the idea that you
:25:35. > :25:44.can fight off a huge downturn in the oil price with a few training
:25:45. > :25:52.programmes, when they spelt it out it amounts to nothing at all. --
:25:53. > :25:56.through macroeconomic policies. They are all tinkering around the edges.
:25:57. > :26:01.The only person who could come up with anything to change things was
:26:02. > :26:04.Murdo Fraser and his push for fracking, and he was saying that
:26:05. > :26:09.would start to build up the industrial base with oil and gas
:26:10. > :26:17.which is being lost, but he faces opposition from the Greens, Labour,
:26:18. > :26:19.the Lib Dems, and the SNP who are likely to continue sitting on the
:26:20. > :26:41.fence. Will the Prime Minister today commit
:26:42. > :26:48.to the outlawing of the practice of agencies that only advertise abroad
:26:49. > :26:53.for jobs that are in reality jobs in this country? We agree about the
:26:54. > :26:57.evils of modern slave and that is why this government passed the
:26:58. > :27:03.anti-slavery bill with all-party support, we have doubled the fines
:27:04. > :27:07.that can be put on companies for its bloating labour in this way, we have
:27:08. > :27:12.strengthened the gang to' licensing authority and they have carried out
:27:13. > :27:16.a lot of prosecutions, including in the north-east of England, and we
:27:17. > :27:22.will continue to take action to make sure people are paid their wages
:27:23. > :27:32.they should be paid. -- gang are' licensing authority. -- gang
:27:33. > :27:37.masters. Tens of thousands of people have migrated to Britain and do a
:27:38. > :27:42.fantastic job. Many in Britain are also concerned about immigration and
:27:43. > :27:44.their local communities. Surely what communities need is practical
:27:45. > :27:50.solutions like the migrant impact fund set up why Gordon Brown to deal
:27:51. > :27:54.with the extra pressure on housing, schools and hospitals. Will the
:27:55. > :27:59.Prime Minister now concede that it was a mistake to abolish that fund
:28:00. > :28:03.and will he work with us to reinstate it as a matter of urgency
:28:04. > :28:11.to give support to those communities facing problems on school places and
:28:12. > :28:16.doctors' surgeries? In answer to the question about advertising, workers'
:28:17. > :28:19.agencies that only advertise the overseas workers, we are looking
:28:20. > :28:24.into that to see if we can ban that practice because we don't leave that
:28:25. > :28:29.is right. Of course the answer to so many of these questions is actually
:28:30. > :28:32.to make sure we are training, educating and employing British
:28:33. > :28:36.people and getting them the qualifications they need to take on
:28:37. > :28:40.the jobs that our economy is creating and today's unemployment
:28:41. > :28:44.figures are another reminder of that. In terms of funds to help
:28:45. > :28:50.communities impacted our immigration we have played in our manifesto
:28:51. > :28:52.which we look forward to bringing forward, controlled migration fund
:28:53. > :28:57.to make sure we put money into communities where there are
:28:58. > :29:01.pressures, because we do need to address these pressures and I hope
:29:02. > :29:05.we can work on a cross-party basis to do that. There are good ways of
:29:06. > :29:09.controlling migration and one of them is the important rules we are
:29:10. > :29:14.bringing in so people don't get instant access to our welfare system
:29:15. > :29:17.but there are bad ways to control immigration, leaving the single
:29:18. > :29:23.market and wrecking the economy is one of them. Today we have learned
:29:24. > :29:28.from a Conservative Chancellor and a former Labour Chancellor that there
:29:29. > :29:33.would be likely to be ?30 billion in cuts to public services or tax rises
:29:34. > :29:39.were there to be a Brexit vote. What impact would that have on public
:29:40. > :29:43.services in Scotland? Lees can we learn now before we vote what impact
:29:44. > :29:47.that would have on the budget in Scotland that pays for the NHS in
:29:48. > :29:54.Scotland, schools in Scotland, local government and all key public
:29:55. > :30:00.services. -- please can we. Is this yet another reason why we must vote
:30:01. > :30:05.to remain in the EU? What I said to the honourable gentleman is that
:30:06. > :30:08.these figures are not waste on what the Chancellor is saying, they are
:30:09. > :30:12.based on what the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the National
:30:13. > :30:17.Institute of social research is saying. They are talking about a ?20
:30:18. > :30:23.billion ?40 billion hole in public finances if exit goes ahead, these
:30:24. > :30:33.have been quoted across the House many times in government because
:30:34. > :30:38.they are respected. Decisions to cut funding in the UK to have an impact
:30:39. > :30:46.in Scotland. For anybody who says these warnings, they could be wrong
:30:47. > :30:49.or inaccurate, this is the point to make to the the right honourable
:30:50. > :30:53.gentleman, there were warnings about the oil price before the Scottish
:30:54. > :30:57.referendum, it turned out to be worse than the experts warned!
:30:58. > :30:59.Now there's a week to go until the EU Referendum
:31:00. > :31:02.and Our Westminster correspondent David Porter joins
:31:03. > :31:17.Remember lastly, you promise me you would hold the rain back. We are in
:31:18. > :31:22.doors, and the weather is beautiful outside. Better to be safe than
:31:23. > :31:27.sorry. There's a strange atmosphere at Westminster at the moment, one
:31:28. > :31:30.issue, the EU referendum in just over a week's time is dominating. It
:31:31. > :31:36.is splitting parties, there are new over a week's time is dominating. It
:31:37. > :31:47.alliances, and if that wasn't enough, as there were flotillas on
:31:48. > :31:50.the Thames, where you had Scottish fishermen and other representatives
:31:51. > :32:00.who want to leave. They were ambushed by Sir Bob Geldof from the
:32:01. > :32:09.Lead, Remain side. It was an extraordinary few minutes at
:32:10. > :32:14.Westminster. And as befits a seafaring nation buzz that was
:32:15. > :32:17.earlier on, and now I'm joined by the former Scottish Secretary
:32:18. > :32:25.Alastair Carmichael who was back in the Leave campaign. The Remain
:32:26. > :32:33.campaign, there to get that right. Stun it is a small but important
:32:34. > :32:40.point. It is looking far tighter than it was before. We know that in
:32:41. > :32:45.the course of a referendum campaign polls will come and go, gaps will
:32:46. > :32:48.expand and shrink. You are right, there's a series of polls at the
:32:49. > :32:54.moment which showed that is a growing support for people in the
:32:55. > :32:59.Leave campaign. From the point of our view, that might not be a bad
:33:00. > :33:03.thing. People have got to know every vote will count next week, and if we
:33:04. > :33:10.vote to leave, that is exactly what will happen. There will be no way
:33:11. > :33:14.back. As someone who has been through the Scottish referendum and
:33:15. > :33:19.independence campaign, what do you make of the Chancellor's warning
:33:20. > :33:24.today that there would be a Brexit budget where he would have to slash
:33:25. > :33:27.and burn? Is that project via on stilts? It is not, the Chancellor is
:33:28. > :33:31.and burn? Is that project via on saying that if there is about to
:33:32. > :33:36.leave, there will be consequences. He is trying to make a point about
:33:37. > :33:40.what these consequences would be. It is better people hear it now before
:33:41. > :33:46.they vote than they turn around on Friday to find they've got an
:33:47. > :33:53.immensely budget next Monday and then are saying, white and somebody
:33:54. > :34:01.tell us? We are pushed the time. Do you think Scotland will vote to
:34:02. > :34:07.remain? And if it doesn't, how big are the consequences? I believe
:34:08. > :34:11.Scotland will remain, I believe the Hall of the UK will still make that
:34:12. > :34:15.decision and I hope once we've done that, we will settle this generation
:34:16. > :34:21.and get on with the job of actually making Europe work. Not just for me
:34:22. > :34:24.and my generation, but for my children's generation. We live in a
:34:25. > :34:28.time when you are seeing the world shrink and, when the national
:34:29. > :34:33.borders become ever more meaningless. We need to work with
:34:34. > :34:36.other countries in a spirit of cooperation and peace rather than
:34:37. > :34:42.conflict and division, and that is the choice of the voters next
:34:43. > :34:45.Thursday. Alistair Carmichael, thank you. We are pushed for time, so I
:34:46. > :34:58.will give back to you. I'm joined you. We are pushed for time, so I
:34:59. > :35:03.now by Philip. What do you make by the suggestion that should read vote
:35:04. > :35:09.to leave, there will be an immensely budget to cut public spending? If we
:35:10. > :35:13.vote to leave, George Osborne won the Chancellor anymore, so it won't
:35:14. > :35:20.happen. Is that a proposal or forecast? 60 consoles of MPs have
:35:21. > :35:26.come out and made it clear we would not support such a budget --
:35:27. > :35:31.conservatives. It stands 0% chance of success. The economic realities
:35:32. > :35:35.under the proposal are still there. You suggesting should we leave the
:35:36. > :35:40.European Union, there would be no need to do anything about public
:35:41. > :35:45.spending? There are no economic relatives behind for the Chancellor
:35:46. > :35:50.has decided today, it is a fiction, trying to scare the Scottish and
:35:51. > :35:55.British people into voting for Remain. Most people in Scotland and
:35:56. > :36:00.England and across United Kingdom will see through it. Are you then,
:36:01. > :36:10.not just on public spending, are you of the view that forecasts from
:36:11. > :36:14.everyone from the IMF to the Treasury suggesting there might be a
:36:15. > :36:20.recession if we vote to leave, you are saying that no economic
:36:21. > :36:25.consequences? The chanters of economic growth and hands if we
:36:26. > :36:28.leave, because we will negotiate free-trade arrangements with other
:36:29. > :36:37.super economies such as China and India. By the way, we would save ?10
:36:38. > :36:42.billion a year in not having to pay our annual membership fee to the
:36:43. > :36:48.European Union. Just to get this clear, you think the economy would
:36:49. > :36:52.improve in the short term? Yes, funnily enough, Britain had a
:36:53. > :36:55.successful history as a trading nation before we joined the European
:36:56. > :36:58.successful history as a trading union in 1973, and it would have an
:36:59. > :37:07.even more success of future as a trading nature will lead to leave --
:37:08. > :37:13.trading nation. Let's get some final thoughts from Hamish. We have a week
:37:14. > :37:19.left, where are we? Is there anything in the arsenal of either
:37:20. > :37:24.side they can drag out and fire? There must be. From the side of the
:37:25. > :37:30.border, it looks like deja vu all over again. We are in a rerun of the
:37:31. > :37:34.Scottish referendum campaign. Once I started off in the lead, the polls
:37:35. > :37:40.narrowed and it looked like it was to call with a week to go. What then
:37:41. > :37:44.tends to happen, or happen to years ago, is it does galvanise the voters
:37:45. > :37:49.and people turn out to vote. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a
:37:50. > :37:53.decent turnout, something we weren't expecting before. It does look too
:37:54. > :37:57.close to call, but looking at the Prime Minister, did he look like
:37:58. > :38:04.someone who would resign next request rocky gave a good show of
:38:05. > :38:10.being calm, but that must be some panic. It is difficult now to know
:38:11. > :38:14.what you can do a train now and next week. We talked about you to get
:38:15. > :38:20.more companies like Rolls-Royce to say, hang on, you won't lose your
:38:21. > :38:24.jobs. Other than that, what can they do? They can't do what they did in
:38:25. > :38:30.the Scottish referendum which was to come up with a bow to change things.
:38:31. > :38:34.They can't say, we will go back to Europe and demand more things, that
:38:35. > :38:41.avenue is close. In this sensory organs have been made, they are on
:38:42. > :38:42.the table. We will see more figures coming out -- in this sense they
:38:43. > :38:46.have been made. You can keep up with the latest
:38:47. > :38:50.from the BBC Scotland News website and I'll be back this weekend
:38:51. > :38:54.on BBC One with Sunday Politics.