:00:00. > :00:00.the biggest fit -- figures in the City are saying the deficit is now
:00:00. > :00:00.at manageable levels, it doesn't make sense to take more money out of
:00:00. > :00:21.spending. Good afternoon and welcome
:00:22. > :00:23.to a special edition The Chancellor sets out
:00:24. > :00:35.a cautious Budget - We said our country would not repeat
:00:36. > :00:39.the mistakes of the past and instead live within our means. We repeat
:00:40. > :00:42.that commitment to economic stability in difficult times.
:00:43. > :00:45.Here at Westminster the Chancellor has had his say, we'll guaging
:00:46. > :00:47.the political reaction to his handiwork.
:00:48. > :00:50.As ever, and as we've been hearing, a good number of announcements
:00:51. > :00:52.from the Chancellor today - an extra ?3.5 billion
:00:53. > :00:55.worth of cuts by the end of the decade,
:00:56. > :00:57.a new sugar levy on the soft-drinks industry, a continuing freeze
:00:58. > :00:59.on fuel duty and cuts in capital gains tax.
:01:00. > :01:02.We'll be bringing you analysis and reaction over the next
:01:03. > :01:05.I'm joined in the studio by Professor David Bell,
:01:06. > :01:07.who is Professor of Economics at Stirling University,
:01:08. > :01:10.and the Daily Record's political editor, David Clegg.
:01:11. > :01:13.Let's just go through some of the main Budget
:01:14. > :01:19.The Chancellor announced changes to taxation for the North Sea oil
:01:20. > :01:23.and gas industry, which has been hit by falling prices.
:01:24. > :01:26.He's cutting the supplementary charge on oil and gas from 20%
:01:27. > :01:30.to 10% and abolishing petroleum revenue tax.
:01:31. > :01:32.He said the UK Government was opening negotiations
:01:33. > :01:40.Fines from banks caught up in the Libor scandal will pay
:01:41. > :01:42.for new community facilities for local people in Helensburgh
:01:43. > :01:50.and for naval personnel at nearby Faslane.
:01:51. > :01:53.And throughout the programme we'll be hearing from the four main
:01:54. > :01:54.political parties at Westminster as they react
:01:55. > :02:10.David Bell, in overall terms, what do you make of this? In big economic
:02:11. > :02:17.terms, was there anything really there? Not a huge amount. We have
:02:18. > :02:20.had lots of Budget two in the last little while so this was more
:02:21. > :02:31.fine-tuning than the spending review. -- Budgets. The overall
:02:32. > :02:44.economic situation has worsened in the last while. On the back of that,
:02:45. > :02:49.to meet the target that the government has set out, there is an
:02:50. > :02:56.overall cut of ?3.5 billion but the government is acknowledging that is
:02:57. > :03:00.not being able to cut debt as a sharer of GDP, the second of its
:03:01. > :03:05.main target, because of the weakness in public finances in the last few
:03:06. > :03:12.months. With no disrespect to some of the terribly earnest debates
:03:13. > :03:18.going on there about where this ?3.5 billion is going to come from, it is
:03:19. > :03:22.all rather airy fairy, numbers on spreadsheets. All it needs is for
:03:23. > :03:26.the economy to bump up by a quarter of half a percent and they can say,
:03:27. > :03:34.due to our stewardship we don't need to do this. The UK is a ?1.8
:03:35. > :03:43.trillion a year economy, so in that context ?3.5 billion is small here.
:03:44. > :03:48.A change in the inflation rate, bad news or bad trading figures, an
:03:49. > :03:53.increase in the interest rate, all of that could easily shift more than
:03:54. > :04:14.?3.5 billion into or of the government balance sheet. -- F. --
:04:15. > :04:19.off. The sugar tax, it is not a tax, it is a levy. It is a surprising
:04:20. > :04:23.policy because fairly recently the UK Government said they were not
:04:24. > :04:27.going to be able to do sugar taxes as part of the childhood obesity
:04:28. > :04:31.strategy so it shows some courage that they have. In Scotland the main
:04:32. > :04:36.measures we will be talking about is the support for the oil industry. We
:04:37. > :04:40.saw jobs figures published today as well that saw that the fall in oil
:04:41. > :04:45.prices causing real problems in the north-east of Scotland so that will
:04:46. > :04:50.be welcome. On the political aspect, changes to income tax, one of the
:04:51. > :04:53.new powers being evolved. For the first time Nicola Sturgeon and John
:04:54. > :04:58.Swinney have a decision to make, whether they follow the changes to
:04:59. > :05:02.income tax. I am glad you say that because we can bring you a shocked
:05:03. > :05:06.develop men, David Bell has calculated how much it would cost
:05:07. > :05:13.the Scottish Government to follow George Osborne. I reckon around ?190
:05:14. > :05:19.million to increase the personal allowance is a bit faster than was
:05:20. > :05:25.originally planned and to move where the higher rate kicks in a bit
:05:26. > :05:29.higher more quickly than previously planned, so that will mainly benefit
:05:30. > :05:36.working families, particularly families with children, so it will
:05:37. > :05:42.be a tough political choice for the Scottish Government as to whether
:05:43. > :05:49.they follow what George Osborne has done or leave the allowances and a
:05:50. > :05:53.higher rate threshold where they are, in which case more people will
:05:54. > :06:00.be paying tax than would have been the case had they followed George
:06:01. > :06:05.Osborne. You would have a double effect, wouldn't you? More people
:06:06. > :06:08.paying 40p and as time goes on what they call fiscal drag, so more
:06:09. > :06:14.people would get into that bracket more quickly in Scotland. There was
:06:15. > :06:19.always this problem about fiscal drag when inflation was fast, you
:06:20. > :06:24.had people getting into tax rates because the tax rate had not been
:06:25. > :06:29.increased as fast as their wages increased. We are in a situation
:06:30. > :06:32.where wage increases are pretty slow so it is difficult to be sure of how
:06:33. > :06:40.many extra people would be dragged in. It is an insight into how
:06:41. > :06:41.Budgets are going to work, with these extra moving parts caused by
:06:42. > :06:56.devolution. Let's go to London and our
:06:57. > :07:02.Westminster correspondent. What did you make of this? It was
:07:03. > :07:05.interesting. We were told at the beginning that because of what the
:07:06. > :07:09.government had done Britain was in a far better placed than most other
:07:10. > :07:14.countries to weather the storm and we were told by George Osborne that
:07:15. > :07:19.there would be further storms ahead so there would have to be some belt
:07:20. > :07:23.tightening but the key issue perhaps was that package of tax reductions
:07:24. > :07:29.for the rural industry. That is something that will -- and the sugar
:07:30. > :07:33.tax will affect not just Scotland but the whole of the UK. There will
:07:34. > :07:44.be a lot of reaction to that in Westminster. Joining me now is the
:07:45. > :07:47.Secretary of State for Scotland. I presume you are pretty happy with
:07:48. > :07:52.what your Cabinet colleague has done for Scotland. Obviously the Scotland
:07:53. > :07:57.we have the package for the oil industry but we have seen fuel duty
:07:58. > :08:01.frozen, really important for rural Scotland, duty on Scotch whiskey
:08:02. > :08:10.frozen, and the Scottish Government going to get ?658 million that they
:08:11. > :08:13.did not expect for their Budget. The really important thing for the
:08:14. > :08:20.Scottish Government is obviously the package for the oil industry, ?1
:08:21. > :08:24.billion, one tax halved, the other tax, revenue tax, effectively
:08:25. > :08:28.abolished, and that comes in addition to a package in the last
:08:29. > :08:33.Budget of around ?1.3 billion and the Aberdeen city deal about
:08:34. > :08:38.improving infrastructure and employability in the north East.
:08:39. > :08:43.Large figures being banded around for the oil industry, some saying
:08:44. > :08:48.this will amount to ?1 billion of tax cuts. Is this a recognition of
:08:49. > :08:53.how serious things are in the north C? The Prime Minister and the
:08:54. > :08:57.Chancellor recognises the situation in Aberdeen, he went there himself
:08:58. > :09:03.and heard directly from the industry the sort of measures they want to be
:09:04. > :09:07.taken and these are exactly in line with, probably beyond, what the
:09:08. > :09:12.industry asked for. The government can't control the oil price, that is
:09:13. > :09:17.the fundamental issue in terms of the probability of the industry in
:09:18. > :09:21.the North Sea, but even that they are backdated and in relation to
:09:22. > :09:25.what has gone on with the city deal this is a substantive package to
:09:26. > :09:32.help the North East. You say you can't affect the oil price. Whatever
:09:33. > :09:36.you do on taxation, the North Sea will still be a very expensive place
:09:37. > :09:42.to produce oil and gas, won't it? There is still tremendous potential
:09:43. > :09:46.for extraction but there are also job opportunities from
:09:47. > :09:51.decommissioning, making sure that Aberdeen is a global energy Centre
:09:52. > :09:55.that can send schools and businesses around the world, so I remain
:09:56. > :09:58.optimistic for the industry. This government has demonstrated that we
:09:59. > :10:02.see it as a vitally important industry for Scotland and the whole
:10:03. > :10:06.of the UK and we have given it the support I believe it needs to help
:10:07. > :10:12.it through this period. The stuff that comes out of the North Sea ends
:10:13. > :10:16.up as petrol and diesel. Fuelled duties have been frozen again.
:10:17. > :10:20.What's that partly because George Osborne knew how unpopular it would
:10:21. > :10:26.be with his own backbenchers and may not have got it through? I think he
:10:27. > :10:33.has always recognised the importance that fuel prices play in everybody's
:10:34. > :10:44.day-to-day lives, not only -- especially people in rural areas, it
:10:45. > :10:50.affects day-to-day costs and also day-to-day goods prices. This is
:10:51. > :10:53.such a contrast to what we saw under the Labour government, continual
:10:54. > :11:01.rise in fuel duty and bleeding of the motorist. This is good news for
:11:02. > :11:06.everybody living in rural Scotland. A freeze on spirits duty. The Scotch
:11:07. > :11:12.whiskey association had wanted a repeat of last year's cut. The
:11:13. > :11:14.Scotch whisky Association have welcomed the announcement because
:11:15. > :11:21.Scotch whiskey duty is being frozen while duty on wine and other drinks
:11:22. > :11:25.are going up, so it is a recognition of the importance of the whiskey
:11:26. > :11:30.industry to Scotland and the UK and that is why the Chancellor has made
:11:31. > :11:35.this move. I think the industry welcomes it, of course. They made
:11:36. > :11:41.their bid for a bit more but they welcome this move warmly.
:11:42. > :11:46.You have mentioned the Aberdeen city deal. The Chancellor talked about
:11:47. > :11:51.the negotiations which are going on for a city deal with Edinburgh. Yet
:11:52. > :11:56.he didn't say anything about the next one in line, Inverness. A
:11:57. > :12:00.detailed announcement on the Inverness deal is imminent. The
:12:01. > :12:04.documents around the Budget make that clear, that there's been very
:12:05. > :12:08.good progress in finalising the deal, and I am sure that we will
:12:09. > :12:13.hear the detail of the deal in the very near future.
:12:14. > :12:16.So it is coming, but not today. The detail of the deal has not been
:12:17. > :12:19.announced today, but in the documents around the project, it is
:12:20. > :12:22.clear good progress is being made again I anticipate a deal is in a
:12:23. > :12:25.minute. The Chancellor made reference to it
:12:26. > :12:30.in his Budget, talking about the European Union and how he thought it
:12:31. > :12:33.was wise that the UK would stay within the European Union. How much
:12:34. > :12:39.of this Budget was framed with that in mind? . The Budget wasn't about
:12:40. > :12:43.the EE you referendum, it was about dealing with the issues that the
:12:44. > :12:48.country faced in relation to issues like the oil and gas industry,
:12:49. > :12:53.filling manifesto commitments to increase the personal allowance,
:12:54. > :12:56.increase a higher rate of tax band, that is what the Budget was about.
:12:57. > :12:59.But I think it was perfectly appropriate that the Chancellor
:13:00. > :13:05.pointed out that the OBR, the independent body, made quite clear
:13:06. > :13:08.that it would be beneficial for the United Kingdom to remain in the EU.
:13:09. > :13:12.The Chancellor is very clear on that, I am very clear about that. A
:13:13. > :13:17.little but history, this will be the last time that UK Chancellor names
:13:18. > :13:22.income tax rates and bands for the whole of the UK. Indeed, this was a
:13:23. > :13:26.historic Budget because with the transfer of the new powers over
:13:27. > :13:30.income tax to the Scottish Parliament, next year's Budget
:13:31. > :13:34.effectively for Scotland in relation to income tax on earned income will
:13:35. > :13:38.be held in the Scottish Parliament. They will determine what the rates
:13:39. > :13:42.and bad start and an interesting question for John Swinney is whether
:13:43. > :13:46.he will stick with the Chancellor's commitment to raise the higher rate
:13:47. > :13:50.threshold to ?45,000, he doesn't need to do that, but of course if he
:13:51. > :13:54.doesn't taxpayer 's in Scotland will be paying more tax than the rest of
:13:55. > :13:57.the United Kingdom. Thank you very much. You would've us think there
:13:58. > :13:59.was an election coming up, wouldn't you! For the moment, back to you.
:14:00. > :14:04.Our political editor, Brian Taylor, is at Holyrood this afternoon -
:14:05. > :14:13.What did you make of it? Intrigued about a couple of things, the
:14:14. > :14:17.reference to referendums, a reference back to the referendum on
:14:18. > :14:21.Scottish independence with the Chancellor announced new measures to
:14:22. > :14:24.assist the North seas come only possible under the broad shoulders
:14:25. > :14:28.of the UK Government, and that is his backbenchers were cheering the
:14:29. > :14:33.SNP, he had a real go at the calls for independence off the back of
:14:34. > :14:38.that announcement. Secondly, David Mundell saying it is not in the
:14:39. > :14:42.context of the EU referendum, well, maybe, I think everything in the UK
:14:43. > :14:46.Government packages in the context of the EU referendum, so it is
:14:47. > :14:53.difficult when the Chancellor was for the OBR on growth, which are
:14:54. > :14:55.down, the OBR forecasts on deficit and debt which he set out in some
:14:56. > :15:00.detail, he said without entering the political arena, he had noted that
:15:01. > :15:08.they would be a period of uncertainty in the event of a
:15:09. > :15:16.European Union exit. -- the OBR said. Oh, I don't think Brian is
:15:17. > :15:19.hearing me. I was just asking, is there any specific reaction from the
:15:20. > :15:24.Scottish Government? Presumably they will be mildly pleased at least with
:15:25. > :15:27.the oil and gas stuff. No reaction yet in detail from the Scottish
:15:28. > :15:31.Government. I hope to speak to John Swinney in the next hour or so. The
:15:32. > :15:33.tax one is the one that will be intriguing all of the parties with
:15:34. > :15:39.regards to their proposals to go into manifestos for the Holyrood
:15:40. > :15:45.elections. First of all, I think the Conservatives at best will match the
:15:46. > :15:50.proposals for the UK as a whole. They said Scotland will be
:15:51. > :15:54.disadvantaged. I think Labour and Liberal Democrats already suggesting
:15:55. > :15:57.that the Chancellor's increase the threshold for higher rate taxpayers
:15:58. > :16:01.is an error and they look to reverse that. I expect the SNP to do the
:16:02. > :16:08.same with the power is transferred. Using the SNP will not increase the
:16:09. > :16:12.threshold? No, I think they will leave well alone at the present
:16:13. > :16:15.rate. The option was open to them, Nicola Sturgeon said, and I think
:16:16. > :16:19.they if they are not to increase the rates, they're not doing the
:16:20. > :16:24.standard rate, I do not think they will increase the rate for 40 and
:16:25. > :16:29.45. I think there are arguments against that, but I think it likely,
:16:30. > :16:32.although we might find out later, when you get will be likely that
:16:33. > :16:36.they will leave the threshold in Scotland as it is, which means there
:16:37. > :16:39.will be a proportionately higher take from higher rate taxpayers in
:16:40. > :16:44.Scotland in comparison to England and the rest the UK. You heard David
:16:45. > :16:48.Mundell making much of the 600 million pounds extra because the
:16:49. > :16:52.Scottish Government was complained about ?1 billion over five years,
:16:53. > :16:55.they said, was good to be cut, so if you take that out, you're only left
:16:56. > :17:02.with about 400 million over four five years. While not great, it is
:17:03. > :17:06.hardly enormous. There are to be ?3.5 billion of cuts in the UK
:17:07. > :17:10.Budget between now and the remainder of the Westminster Parliament, but
:17:11. > :17:14.at the same time, the Chancellor is, says he's protecting health and
:17:15. > :17:20.announcing protection for the education Budget. Those two are
:17:21. > :17:24.devolved budgets and therefore to Scotland there was relative
:17:25. > :17:28.protection within that. Protection for the Scottish Government Budget,
:17:29. > :17:32.I'm sure you'll hear John Swinney Saint over extended period, Scotland
:17:33. > :17:36.has suffered real terms cuts. Thank you very much indeed for that.
:17:37. > :17:45.Labour have been risk bond into the budgets in the comments. Jeremy
:17:46. > :17:47.Corbyn said that it has unfairness in its core and some the most
:17:48. > :17:54.honourable and poor society will be bearing the brunt of the
:17:55. > :17:56.Chancellor's failure to meet the economic targets.
:17:57. > :18:00.David Porter is with the Shadow Scottish Secretary, Ian Murray.
:18:01. > :18:06.Yes, what you make of it for Scotland? This is the sixth time out
:18:07. > :18:10.of six the Chancellor has made an Autumn Statement within a few months
:18:11. > :18:13.that has unraveled, we have growth down, the deficit up, debt is up,
:18:14. > :18:18.much more difficult financial edger over the next five years than he
:18:19. > :18:21.painted just a few months ago. There are welcome things, the oil and gas
:18:22. > :18:27.industry, the could've gone much further. We asked them to take in
:18:28. > :18:32.public hands well could be decommission early because of the
:18:33. > :18:34.oil prices. We welcome the fees and Scottish whisky because it it
:18:35. > :18:37.welcomes 40,000 jobs in Scotland, but we don't welcome him balancing
:18:38. > :18:42.the Budget on the backs of the poor. He is done that again. We will deal
:18:43. > :18:47.with the specifics in a moment, but a macroeconomic level, he seems
:18:48. > :18:50.fairly confident that he can get into surplus by the end of this
:18:51. > :18:54.Parliament, and his argument is if we are a country that are paying our
:18:55. > :18:58.own way, that is good for everyone, rich and poor.
:18:59. > :19:02.We have heard this before, in fact, in the Conservative manifesto for
:19:03. > :19:06.the 2010 election, this very Chancellor said he would eradicate
:19:07. > :19:10.the deficit by 2015. He doesn't look like evil eradicated now by 2019.
:19:11. > :19:14.His argument is projected from the Autumn Statement last year, the end
:19:15. > :19:21.of November, a few months ago, when he spent 27 LE impounds and now he
:19:22. > :19:25.is ?18 billion worse off. The deficit profile is incredibly
:19:26. > :19:28.challenging and to meet those challenging, he has to cut well for
:19:29. > :19:32.the deponent services again. That a function of what is happening
:19:33. > :19:36.in the world economy, as much as he would like to make the economic
:19:37. > :19:40.weather, any UK Chancellor has to react to what the world economy is
:19:41. > :19:44.doing? We were warning about the headwinds
:19:45. > :19:48.in the Autumn Statement and he didn't take into account active. For
:19:49. > :19:55.the Budget of -- opposite Budget response ability said taking the you
:19:56. > :20:00.out of the EU would take significant applications for the Budget. So
:20:01. > :20:03.there are arguments in terms of headwinds with the economy all over
:20:04. > :20:08.the world, but the key one for the Budget this time around is keeping
:20:09. > :20:11.the UK within the EU. Let's do with the oil industry and
:20:12. > :20:16.the specifics. The Government argues that what they are doing is is the
:20:17. > :20:19.way back in effect reducing taxation on the North Sea by ?1 billion. They
:20:20. > :20:23.are backdating it. You say they are not doing enough?
:20:24. > :20:29.Of course we welcome it, but if you look at the Budget book, rather than
:20:30. > :20:32.the oil industry conjugating almost ?9 billion to the UK Exchequer in
:20:33. > :20:37.previous years, actually there was a net cost of the UK exchequer now, ?5
:20:38. > :20:40.billion over this period, so does very much welcome that he's putting
:20:41. > :20:45.this into the oil and gas industry to help. Anything that helps at this
:20:46. > :20:48.stage, particularly with pre-1993 taxation, what are the key things
:20:49. > :20:54.the oil industry ass for... What we asked for was to look of the assets
:20:55. > :20:57.of the North Sea, set up a separate company run by the Government I
:20:58. > :20:59.could take some assets into public ownership, keep them running until
:21:00. > :21:01.the oil price rises so we are not getting premature decommissioning in
:21:02. > :21:04.the North Sea which will close on the North Sea earlier than the shed,
:21:05. > :21:07.lose will supply chain can be devastating for the Northeast and
:21:08. > :21:13.the wider country. -- North Sea. But the North Sea has
:21:14. > :21:16.and always is going to be a very expensive place to get oil and gas
:21:17. > :21:19.out of. Absolutely because it is an aging
:21:20. > :21:22.field. The oil and gas industry say that themselves, when I met with
:21:23. > :21:25.them a few weeks ago to get the briefing on what the oil and gas
:21:26. > :21:28.industry is actually doing, they are blowing their own costs.
:21:29. > :21:31.They are making sure they are fit for the future, confident in the
:21:32. > :21:35.North Sea, they think the North Sea has a bright future ahead of it, but
:21:36. > :21:38.there is short-term difficulties with regards to the oil price being
:21:39. > :21:43.so low, it looks as though that Rice might sustain below for a long time.
:21:44. > :21:46.What we were asking for is to look at this much more strategically, not
:21:47. > :21:50.just about taxation but looking at expiration taxes on whether or not
:21:51. > :21:53.assets could be owned by the Government in the short term in
:21:54. > :21:57.order to see over this minor and short term problem in order for
:21:58. > :22:01.these plans not to be decommissioned before their true life span has been
:22:02. > :22:05.truly exhausted. Another headline from the Budget,
:22:06. > :22:11.the so-called sugar tax which will be phased in over two years.
:22:12. > :22:13.Particularly with Scotland and the reputation Scotland and the historic
:22:14. > :22:17.reputation Scotland has for health issues, this can only be a good
:22:18. > :22:21.thing we welcome this and we welcome the campaign which was run by Jamie
:22:22. > :22:23.Oliver and many people both in Scotland and the wider UK to try and
:22:24. > :22:26.get it to sugar tax. I can get is sensible that the
:22:27. > :22:32.Chancellor has given a two-year lead-in time to give and a great
:22:33. > :22:36.Scottish iconic brands like iron brew to reduce the sugars they have
:22:37. > :22:43.in their drinks to be able to comply with any rules. It has been sport
:22:44. > :22:47.education in England, there is a barn or consequential of ?22 million
:22:48. > :22:52.a year, so hopefully that will be spent on children's health and sport
:22:53. > :22:56.and education, a direct correlation between that tax on sugary drinks
:22:57. > :22:58.and children's health. It is the right thing to do and I'm glad the
:22:59. > :23:01.Chancellor came up with that particular tax.
:23:02. > :23:06.As it so happens, Jamie Oliver is just mind you being interviewed,
:23:07. > :23:09.cecum bank and personally. But as regards the money that goes to
:23:10. > :23:14.Scotland from the stacks, if you would like to see it ring fenced for
:23:15. > :23:19.sport and health ministers? They don't have the authority to spend
:23:20. > :23:22.that, that would be in the hand of the Scottish Government and Scottish
:23:23. > :23:25.Labour Party in terms of bringing proposals, and the UK level it is
:23:26. > :23:27.being hypothecate it for school sport and I think that is a good
:23:28. > :23:31.thing to do. We've only had the Budget and our
:23:32. > :23:34.half ago, as much as I like to spend money, spending ?50 million in an
:23:35. > :23:38.hour and a half is not my responsibility, it's out with my pay
:23:39. > :23:40.grade. I'm sure the Scottish Parliament and the Government and
:23:41. > :23:43.the Labour Party will come some exciting proposals on how to spend
:23:44. > :23:44.that money. Thank you very much. For the time
:23:45. > :23:49.being, act EU. -- back to you. The Chancellor was keen
:23:50. > :24:04.to point to turbulence With the referendum approaching, he
:24:05. > :24:09.said that it had been predicated on the UK remained.
:24:10. > :24:13.In the OBR correctly stay out of the political debate and they do not
:24:14. > :24:17.assess the long-term costs and benefits of EU membership. They do
:24:18. > :24:22.say this and I quote them directly, a vote to leave in the forthcoming
:24:23. > :24:26.referendum that could usher in an extended period of uncertainty
:24:27. > :24:32.regarding the precise terms of the UK's future relationship with the
:24:33. > :24:35.EU. They don't want to say, this could have negative implications for
:24:36. > :24:39.activity via business and consumer confidence and might result in
:24:40. > :24:46.greater volatility in financial and other asset markets. Citing a number
:24:47. > :24:51.of external reports, the OBR say this, there appears to be a greater
:24:52. > :24:54.consensus that a vote to leave would result in a period of potentially
:24:55. > :25:02.disruptive uncertainty, while the precise details of the UK's new
:25:03. > :25:07.relationship with the three not -- EU is made.
:25:08. > :25:12.Britain would be stronger, safer and better off inside a reformed
:25:13. > :25:16.European Union and I believe it you but not put at risk all the hard
:25:17. > :25:16.work of his people have done to make our economy stronger again.
:25:17. > :25:19.David Bell from Stirling University and David Clegg from
:25:20. > :25:29.It is interesting, wasn't it, because I presume and dairy George
:25:30. > :25:33.Osborne could've said, I'm asking the OBR to do an assessment.
:25:34. > :25:36.Yes, and I think although we had to make the point about the European
:25:37. > :25:40.Union as it is the biggest issue in British politics at the minute, he
:25:41. > :25:44.didn't really say all that much about in the grand scheme of things
:25:45. > :25:50.and there was an interesting reference to the retiring prime to
:25:51. > :25:54.this treasure, who played eight crucial role in the Scottish
:25:55. > :25:58.referendum and there was some jeering on the SNP backbenchers when
:25:59. > :26:01.they praised his impartiality. I think it is quite clear that, given
:26:02. > :26:05.the divisions within the Conservative Party, the same
:26:06. > :26:10.infrastructure of Government is not being assembled in the U referendum
:26:11. > :26:13.in the same way it was in the Scottish referendum. The OBR is
:26:14. > :26:18.slightly different from the Civil Service, per se, isn't it? Because
:26:19. > :26:26.the Chancellor himself has to make great play of its independence.
:26:27. > :26:33.It might have concluded we would be better off leaving! True! It
:26:34. > :26:37.cherishes its independence and it would be unwise for the Chancellor
:26:38. > :26:44.to be seen to be interfering in that independence. The Irn-Bru tax have
:26:45. > :26:51.you had -- as you have dubbed it, you could I suppose put a tax at
:26:52. > :26:57.point of sale, so it would be a straightforward sugar tax, or you
:26:58. > :27:03.can have this levy on revenues on each can that don't meet the
:27:04. > :27:08.criteria. Are there any particular advantages of doing it that way?
:27:09. > :27:15.Having the levy may be administratively more easy. Small
:27:16. > :27:21.producers will be excluded so it is only a small number of relatively
:27:22. > :27:25.large firms producing sugary drinks that you will have to collect from.
:27:26. > :27:30.Whether there would be an interaction of VAT at point of sale
:27:31. > :27:35.I am not sure that it looks to me like the Treasury has taken a
:27:36. > :27:46.decision that the levy is better. It gives a direct incentive to Kokes
:27:47. > :27:52.and Pepsis to get the sugar content down. Absolutely. Whether they can
:27:53. > :28:03.do this with artificial sweeteners is an interesting debate. It is not
:28:04. > :28:07.like the increase on alcohol, attempting to drive consumer
:28:08. > :28:12.behaviour, it is about trying to change the behaviour of the
:28:13. > :28:15.companies. They will have to reduce sugar to not fall foul of the levy.
:28:16. > :28:22.The question is, when they talk about revenue being generated from
:28:23. > :28:25.it, if the idea is to stop these companies being in this position you
:28:26. > :28:33.wonder what will happen to the revenue. It is going to be
:28:34. > :28:36.hypothecated to sport in schools but presumably it will be up to the
:28:37. > :28:44.Scottish Government to do what it feels fit. He was saying it is ?52
:28:45. > :28:47.million for Scotland so that is a substantial amount of money that you
:28:48. > :28:52.presume the Scottish Government would be under a lot of fresh to
:28:53. > :28:55.almost inevitably do something similar with that money. I don't
:28:56. > :28:59.understand what happens if the companies actually do lower their
:29:00. > :29:06.sugar content, and we don't get the cash. It is a bit like taxes on
:29:07. > :29:11.fags, they don't get them if people stop smoking. You will have a lot of
:29:12. > :29:16.disappointed youngsters if the money isn't coming across the border to
:29:17. > :29:19.support sport in Scotland, if that is what the Scottish Government
:29:20. > :29:25.choose to do and the companies managed to reduce the sugar content.
:29:26. > :29:30.You have been looking at some clarification on the oil and gas
:29:31. > :29:35.thing. The PRT abolition, that is what David Mundell was rather
:29:36. > :29:46.cryptically... Or was it Ian Murray, referring to as 31993 taxation. Yes,
:29:47. > :29:54.Fields commission before 1993. -- commissioned. Profits on the big
:29:55. > :30:01.fields producing before 1993, and it has tended to diminish over time.
:30:02. > :30:06.This tax reduction is not a particularly big hit. The
:30:07. > :30:12.supplementary charge, which is being cut in half, that is an extra tax on
:30:13. > :30:17.profits. Most of the revenues came from corporation tax, didn't they?
:30:18. > :30:24.Somebody made a joke, David Clegg, before our programme, that it is a
:30:25. > :30:32.no-brainer for the Chancellor Bickers there are no revenues so 10%
:30:33. > :30:37.of nothing is nothing. -- because. But people might start to think of
:30:38. > :30:45.getting going again. What we could have seen more of perhaps is tax
:30:46. > :30:49.breaks for investment for harder to reach oil fields. Instead they have
:30:50. > :30:55.said, if you get to a point where you are making profit, we won't take
:30:56. > :31:00.as much away. One thing against that, it sounds great but at the
:31:01. > :31:06.moment the futures price of oil for 2024 is $50 a barrel, so it has to
:31:07. > :31:10.be a huge incentive to get people to invest because -- the futures price
:31:11. > :31:16.the 2024? That is extraordinary. Back to Westminster and more
:31:17. > :31:18.political reaction, this time Let's rejoin our correspondent,
:31:19. > :31:26.David Porter. I am pleased to say I am joined by a
:31:27. > :31:30.man who has been very busy today because he has been reacting to his
:31:31. > :31:37.party in the House of Commons, Deputy Leader for the SNP, Stewart
:31:38. > :31:40.Hosie. Presumably you are happy or at least pleased that there was
:31:41. > :31:45.something for the oil industry but you are not too keen on other
:31:46. > :31:50.aspects. There are small measures which we welcome, the actions on oil
:31:51. > :31:55.and whiskey are good, and there are other small measures we think might
:31:56. > :32:01.have good positive effects. But the big picture was the mind-boggling
:32:02. > :32:05.failure of the Chancellor on all of the big targets. He told us today
:32:06. > :32:11.with a straight face you doesn't expect his rowing figures to be as
:32:12. > :32:15.low as he promised for this year for another four years, an admission of
:32:16. > :32:23.abject failure for the Tories' long-term economic plan. Isn't it a
:32:24. > :32:27.case that whatever fiscal party you are from, a UK Chancellor has to go
:32:28. > :32:34.with what the world economy is doing? Every economy is global these
:32:35. > :32:37.days, every economy to a greater or lesser extent is buffeted by
:32:38. > :32:43.external shocks, I think everybody understands that. It is what one
:32:44. > :32:48.does about it that matters. This Chancellor has been warned time and
:32:49. > :32:52.time again if he slashes investment, doesn't raise capital expenditure,
:32:53. > :32:59.he risks falling behind, and that is what has happened. Borrowing will
:33:00. > :33:04.not be on track for when we expected it to be for this year for another
:33:05. > :33:12.four years. That is the black economic pitcher. Looking
:33:13. > :33:17.specifically at Scotland, reduction of taxation for the North Sea oil
:33:18. > :33:22.industry, is it a boon, or is the North Sea industry paying any tax?
:33:23. > :33:27.Receipts are very low but I support this nevertheless. If I have one
:33:28. > :33:34.criticism it was the lack of any strategic language, no help for
:33:35. > :33:39.production or investment, but the tax cuts are welcome. Is it not a
:33:40. > :33:44.case that what ever he had done on North Sea oil the industry probably
:33:45. > :33:48.would have wanted more still and the fundamental fact is that the North
:33:49. > :33:56.Sea is very expensive place to get their oil and gas out of? It is, and
:33:57. > :34:02.a lot of credit has to go to the industry for bringing their costs
:34:03. > :34:08.down. It is the cost base of the sector and of course the fiscal
:34:09. > :34:12.regime. You had the doubling of the supplementary charge, it came down
:34:13. > :34:16.last year and has come down again, but the government should have
:34:17. > :34:20.reacted far more quickly to the difficulties the sector is facing.
:34:21. > :34:24.The North Sea has delivered ?300 billion of tax revenue to the UK,
:34:25. > :34:28.they should have stepped up much more quickly but this is welcome
:34:29. > :34:33.nonetheless. You don't seem to think it will help the sector turn a
:34:34. > :34:39.corner? It is part of a package of measures. The fiscal regime, cost
:34:40. > :34:43.ways, it is a combination, so I hope it does, I would have liked him to
:34:44. > :34:47.have done more by way of allowances for exploration of there and
:34:48. > :34:53.production but that may be happening behind the scenes. Your thoughts on
:34:54. > :34:57.another issue he raised, the so-called sugar tax, which will be
:34:58. > :35:02.brought in. How important you think it will be as health measure for the
:35:03. > :35:08.UK but specifically Scotland, with the Scotland has with health issues?
:35:09. > :35:14.It is quite a bold measure. It doesn't bring in a lot of money and
:35:15. > :35:20.it gives Scotland two years to reduce the amount of sugar they have
:35:21. > :35:25.and thus reduce the tax. I hope it works, I hope it leads to less
:35:26. > :35:33.obesity and via Beatties, and some of the small measures school sport,
:35:34. > :35:45.great stuff, let's hope it works. ? -- diabetes. ?50 million or so for
:35:46. > :35:48.Scotland. Do you think the Scottish Government will look favourite on
:35:49. > :35:54.doing what the UK Government says it wants to do and put the money raised
:35:55. > :35:58.for health and education projects? I think George Osborne was rather
:35:59. > :36:07.silly to say that. We have just announced the opening of the 150th
:36:08. > :36:11.school sports projects in Scotland, we are already doing a lot of the
:36:12. > :36:15.activities he was talking about, but in terms of any Barnett
:36:16. > :36:18.consequential that may come, he also put up national insurance, and
:36:19. > :36:22.immediate cost on Scottish have meant and local governor, so we have
:36:23. > :36:29.to look at the whole balance of tax and spend. Stuart Hazell -- Stewart
:36:30. > :36:31.Hosie, thank you very much for joining us. Back to you in the
:36:32. > :36:47.studio. In cash terms the national debt is
:36:48. > :36:52.lower than it was forecast to be in the autumn. So is the nominal size
:36:53. > :36:58.of our economy. If we measure the fiscal target against debt to GDP,
:36:59. > :37:03.debt as a percentage of GDP is above target and set to be higher in
:37:04. > :37:09.2015-16 than the year before, according to the forecast the actual
:37:10. > :37:10.level of our GDP is in cash ?9 billion lower.
:37:11. > :37:13.We're joined now by Carl Emmerson, the deputy director of the Institute
:37:14. > :37:24.Before the Budget there was a lot of talk about how one of the problems
:37:25. > :37:28.George Osborne is facing is that the economy is smaller, the tune of
:37:29. > :37:34.about ?80 billion, than we thought it was a while back. Where is there
:37:35. > :37:40.a reflection in that rather located statement from George Osborne there
:37:41. > :37:44.that that that was in fact the case? It has caused him to miss the second
:37:45. > :37:48.of his three fiscal rules, he wanted to make sure the amount of debt
:37:49. > :37:52.public sector holds as a share of the annual economy falls every year.
:37:53. > :37:57.It looks like the economy last year was a bit smaller than we thought so
:37:58. > :38:04.the amount of debt he is holding has not fallen, it has gone up a bit.
:38:05. > :38:08.The economic consequences not very much if anything but politically and
:38:09. > :38:14.presentation elite it means he has broken a fiscal rule. Presumably
:38:15. > :38:18.there is a long-term consequence if the British economy is smaller than
:38:19. > :38:24.we thought it was six months ago. It is 1% smaller, in part because of a
:38:25. > :38:28.lower level of inflation, a lower level of real activity. It means
:38:29. > :38:32.combined with the fact that the outcome for how the economy is going
:38:33. > :38:37.to grow over the next few years on average we not going to have much
:38:38. > :38:44.money to spend in future. Mr Osborne had to respond to that and he wanted
:38:45. > :38:47.to be on track to meet the rule of having overall control of surplus
:38:48. > :38:53.buying. If he hadn't done anything today he would have missed that one
:38:54. > :38:56.as well. He announced a package that involves in particular changes to
:38:57. > :39:01.revenue and spending, meaning he still expects a surplus in that
:39:02. > :39:04.year. We were talking a bit earlier about how meaningful some of these
:39:05. > :39:13.extra cuts are. He said he had to cut another ?3.5 billion, but we
:39:14. > :39:16.were talking about public finances in 2019-20. Presumably all sorts of
:39:17. > :39:20.things could happen before then which would either mean the cuts
:39:21. > :39:23.wouldn't have to be made or that in order to balance the Budget you
:39:24. > :39:29.would have to make a lot more cuts. The numbers will not turn out to be
:39:30. > :39:36.completely correct, they will be revised again and again. They are
:39:37. > :39:40.the OBR's best guess at the moment. There is a chance the numbers would
:39:41. > :39:44.be better than his numbers imply, meaning we don't have to do the
:39:45. > :39:48.spending cuts he implied today. Presumably we should hope that is
:39:49. > :39:56.the case -- the case, but there is a 50% chance that things will turn out
:39:57. > :39:59.worse, and so if we are to have a Budget surplus in that year a
:40:00. > :40:04.statement could involve big cuts or further tax rises. Can I ask you
:40:05. > :40:09.about capital spend, because I think we can assume from today that George
:40:10. > :40:12.Osborne will be in lots of photo opportunities in hard hats in the
:40:13. > :40:18.Peak District and all of the rest of it and he has made a big thing about
:40:19. > :40:22.the Northern powerhouse, but actually is capital spending as a
:40:23. > :40:29.percentage of GDP rising or falling and how does it compare to the last
:40:30. > :40:34.few years? It has certainly been cut a lot since 2010, so Mr Osborne cut
:40:35. > :40:38.capital spending dramatically in the last parliament. In broad terms my
:40:39. > :40:44.understanding is that that period has come to an end, it is staying
:40:45. > :40:49.constant as a share of the economy, it is nowhere near the -- the rate
:40:50. > :40:54.in 2008-9 but it is not being cut any more. As a result of today's
:40:55. > :41:03.statement we will spend a bit more in the next few years and a bit let
:41:04. > :41:10.in 2019-20. Right, but in his speech that he referred to, the statement
:41:11. > :41:13.made about backing him up, but economists at both the OECD and the
:41:14. > :41:19.International Monetary Fund have said that because of the spheres of
:41:20. > :41:23.a slowdown in the world economy they would like to see an internationally
:41:24. > :41:28.coordinated programme of infrastructure spending to shore up
:41:29. > :41:31.a weakness in the economy. -- the fierce. So this doesn't count as a
:41:32. > :41:39.British contribution to it? It is important to know that as a
:41:40. > :41:44.temporary thing, it is doing this many earlier, rather than doing more
:41:45. > :41:47.spending overall. I ask you something I have asked our
:41:48. > :41:52.guests here, the sugar levy, a could've been a sugar tax, couldn't
:41:53. > :41:56.it am at point-of-sale? Is there any particular advantage of doing a one
:41:57. > :41:59.way or the other? I think about levying it on the
:42:00. > :42:02.companies, and it will help get their attention to the tax very
:42:03. > :42:07.dramatically, try and encourage them to formulate lower sugar content
:42:08. > :42:11.products. You might get a bigger effect there. If you don't, then get
:42:12. > :42:15.passed on in prices no doubt anyway, the same as attacks at point-of-sale
:42:16. > :42:19.what. So I can see some advantages and how it might affect behaviour,
:42:20. > :42:22.it might also be much easier to implement if you're taking money
:42:23. > :42:23.straight for the companies. Thank you very much indeed for
:42:24. > :42:25.joining us. Some further reaction
:42:26. > :42:26.from Westminster's opposition parties now, with our
:42:27. > :42:37.correspondent David Porter. Thank you very much. One say to say
:42:38. > :42:42.I am joined from the Lord Mandel Bruce who said from the Liberal
:42:43. > :42:45.Democrats who saw the Budget close-up and personal on the
:42:46. > :42:49.benches. What you think of Osborne's handiwork was not he's made a choice
:42:50. > :42:53.that is good to balance the books. He hasn't really explained out on
:42:54. > :42:58.earth it's going to come right, having not come right so far, and we
:42:59. > :43:01.already know he's cutting benefits to disabled people whilst cutting
:43:02. > :43:06.taxes for the high earners. Or you can just see in all its tooth
:43:07. > :43:12.and claw, this is a Tory Budget designed to ease the burden on the
:43:13. > :43:15.rich and make the poor pay for it. I think that is predictable and
:43:16. > :43:19.disappointed, I hope it will make people appreciate what a difference
:43:20. > :43:22.the Liberal Democrats made in the previous Coalition Government as
:43:23. > :43:25.topics kinds of things. But now there is no check and this is what
:43:26. > :43:29.they can do. Patty was assessed as for Scotland
:43:30. > :43:32.consent was not there are questions for the parties in Scotland who had
:43:33. > :43:37.now have tax powers, which could see a departure and on Scotland and
:43:38. > :43:41.England, which could have positive or negative effects both on the
:43:42. > :43:49.economy and public services. We need to have a debate about this.
:43:50. > :43:54.George Osborne knows it is an issue, if you don't agree with the way he
:43:55. > :43:59.is tackling it in England. I think that is a fact, the oil industry has
:44:00. > :44:04.a huge impact on the Scottish economy. I think if you take the big
:44:05. > :44:08.one or two construction project that of Scotland and look of the downturn
:44:09. > :44:13.in the oil and gas, the Scottish throne is in it situation, this
:44:14. > :44:16.Government cannot get the oil industry back in its fee in terms of
:44:17. > :44:20.the price of oil, but it's got to be seen to try and help the industry to
:44:21. > :44:26.prepare for the ability to invest again when some economic recovery
:44:27. > :44:29.appears. So reducing the taxes and reforming the tax system is
:44:30. > :44:32.absolutely necessary, although personally, getting the revenue at
:44:33. > :44:36.all, it seems they could've got rid of the charge altogether without any
:44:37. > :44:41.real pain. But knowing the Northeast as you do,
:44:42. > :44:45.those to work and are involved in the North Sea oil and gas industry,
:44:46. > :44:48.if things pick up a little bit, the taxation productions that he has the
:44:49. > :44:50.nuts, could those be of real benefit?
:44:51. > :44:54.They give a signal that the Government is saying we want you to
:44:55. > :44:57.invest, they haven't given incentives for exploration or new
:44:58. > :45:00.field development, so I think they will have to do more than that. The
:45:01. > :45:04.industry itself, as Stewart Hosie said earlier and I agree with them,
:45:05. > :45:08.have done enormously good job and try to get the job done, it is a
:45:09. > :45:13.high-cost area. If they can get the cost down an appraiser covers 260 or
:45:14. > :45:15.$70 and looks stable at that level, but I hope with the Government has
:45:16. > :45:20.done is enough for the industry to feel confident to start investing
:45:21. > :45:23.again. But, governments of all colours have different awful or
:45:24. > :45:26.damage to the industry by consular chopping and changing. We need a
:45:27. > :45:32.long-term commitment that says we are behind us industry, it's about
:45:33. > :45:34.life in it, but it's facing global competition in a very expensive
:45:35. > :45:37.environment and it needs all the help we can get.
:45:38. > :45:41.The temptation for any Government is if the oil price starts to recover,
:45:42. > :45:44.they may think there was more tax to be had for her.
:45:45. > :45:48.I'd like to think they've had their fingers burnt. As you may know, I
:45:49. > :45:54.voted and spoke out against the first Coalition Budget the first
:45:55. > :45:58.time I party was in Government. We didn't give revenue, it cost the
:45:59. > :46:01.Government revenue, it lost the confidence of the industry and set
:46:02. > :46:05.it back a long way. I worked with the Government, the Treasury and
:46:06. > :46:11.others at the time to build things back together in my colleague Ed
:46:12. > :46:13.Davey got the review going, the oil and gas Authority going, so we now
:46:14. > :46:17.have an infrastructure in place thanks to the initiatives we took a
:46:18. > :46:20.Government that actually create a partnership to get chilly investment
:46:21. > :46:23.in new infrastructure and the tax regime to encourage that. So it like
:46:24. > :46:27.to think the Government have taken the steps necessary not to make the
:46:28. > :46:32.mistakes they've made in the past. But we will only know that after
:46:33. > :46:37.we've had frankly a few years of stable pricing and recovery.
:46:38. > :46:41.This industry has not been badly hit as it has in the last 12 months.
:46:42. > :46:44.Another had to come out of the Budget, the imposition of the
:46:45. > :46:48.so-called sugar tax. In health terms, how important is
:46:49. > :46:52.this going to be? It has been widely welcomed, it's been called for by a
:46:53. > :46:55.lot of people, obesity and diabetes are real issues. These got to be
:46:56. > :46:59.realistic. Taxing sugar does not solve the problem. You've got to
:47:00. > :47:03.educate people, but it does give the industry opportunity to make
:47:04. > :47:07.products with less sugar, perhaps less damaging. I hope also we will
:47:08. > :47:10.use the money not just the fund, as the Government wants to do, spore
:47:11. > :47:14.and other activities in schools, but to educate people on the dangers of
:47:15. > :47:18.sugary drinks in excess of sugar consumption, which is actually
:47:19. > :47:22.killing the rising generation, literally killing them, with both
:47:23. > :47:26.disease and weight problems. So I think it's only valuable if it
:47:27. > :47:30.seemed to be in a much bigger context into the back of attacking
:47:31. > :47:34.the scourge if you like, in despite of the poverty that exists, the
:47:35. > :47:37.affluent Society, and often it is the poorest suffer the most.
:47:38. > :47:38.They do very much for joining us with your thoughts as afternoon.
:47:39. > :47:39.Back to you. David Bell and David
:47:40. > :47:47.Clegg are still here. David Bell, can I ask you possibly
:47:48. > :47:51.the biggest question about all this, which is that we have heard the
:47:52. > :47:55.opposition party they're lining up to say, oh, yet again, boring is not
:47:56. > :47:58.as Osborne said it was good to be a few months ago, yet again he's had
:47:59. > :48:02.to take extra measures to balance the deficit, a target that seems to
:48:03. > :48:07.move off into the ever distant future, but the other side of this
:48:08. > :48:11.is that the Government can say we have had the fastest growth in the
:48:12. > :48:15.OECD, unemployment in Britain is that the levels it was at in the
:48:16. > :48:19.boom years, before the great financial crash, and so there are
:48:20. > :48:26.all these economist to said George Osborne policy was wrong, balancing
:48:27. > :48:28.the Budget at a time or recession was misguided, it should actually
:48:29. > :48:31.borrow more and spend on infrastructure and create jobs, are
:48:32. > :48:41.wrong. He is right. Not, not entirely sure
:48:42. > :48:45.take a few. When they came in 2010 - 11, they introduced very restrictive
:48:46. > :48:53.Budget at that time and the economy then dipped, so they then kind of
:48:54. > :48:57.took off the reins a bit and it's gradually got better.
:48:58. > :49:05.The economy now is quite a different beast to what it was prior to the
:49:06. > :49:09.great recession. What we have seen is the Labour market has done
:49:10. > :49:12.particularly well in the sense of getting people into jobs. There are
:49:13. > :49:19.lots of people who would like to work more hours and wages have been
:49:20. > :49:22.increasing at a snails pace over this period of time. It's taken a
:49:23. > :49:27.very long time for output to recover. So the way that the economy
:49:28. > :49:32.has been behaving as in some respects been pretty good and George
:49:33. > :49:39.Osborne can take some of the credit for that, but... But you're also a
:49:40. > :49:43.subscriber to one view that doesn't allow the hearing that actually you
:49:44. > :49:47.think after about 11 or 12, George Osborne didn't do what he he said he
:49:48. > :49:49.was doing, the cuts went ahead to departmental spending, firms have on
:49:50. > :49:55.welfare, but they took their foot off.
:49:56. > :49:59.Yes, so the reduction, the first target was to have a Budget surplus
:50:00. > :50:04.at the end of the last Parliament. Well, they are miles away from that.
:50:05. > :50:08.They've continually taken the foot off the pedal as far as the cuts are
:50:09. > :50:11.concerned. Yes, but the kind of did that
:50:12. > :50:15.insecure, didn't they? The politics of this is that George Osborne to
:50:16. > :50:18.take, I might not have done exactly what I said when I said it was doing
:50:19. > :50:21.it, but look at the other lot, what would they have done? I am balancing
:50:22. > :50:25.the books and look at the way the economy is doing.
:50:26. > :50:30.I have my doubts that when he says when we are surplus we look at the
:50:31. > :50:34.surplus, it looks like a lot of jiggery-pokery to make us in the
:50:35. > :50:37.surplus for 2020. Time will bear that, we will find out. What else of
:50:38. > :50:41.think this point about the jobs is the important one and the point that
:50:42. > :50:45.David makes about pay in that most of the jobs that are being created
:50:46. > :50:49.are low-paid and insecure work. The people who are... But George
:50:50. > :50:55.Osborne claims the arc. I would say that there was a serious
:50:56. > :50:58.doubt about what George ours for missing there. -- George Osborne
:50:59. > :51:05.says they are not. I think two things will tell here.
:51:06. > :51:08.But if you are part of the 50% of young people in Spain who are out of
:51:09. > :51:12.work, you would say you would like to live in Britain. They can get a
:51:13. > :51:16.job at all. It is a bit of a false comparison.
:51:17. > :51:24.And it has been revised downwards again.
:51:25. > :51:27.We will be back to you shortly. There was some good news.
:51:28. > :51:28.It's been backdated, so it's effective from
:51:29. > :51:37.The oil and gas sector employs hundreds of thousands of people in
:51:38. > :51:42.Scotland and around the country. In my Budget a year ago, and made major
:51:43. > :51:46.reductions to the taxes, but the oil prices continued to fall, so we need
:51:47. > :51:51.to act now for the long-term. I am today cutting in half the
:51:52. > :51:58.supplementary charge on oil and gas from 20% to 10% and I am effectively
:51:59. > :52:00.abolishing petroleum revenue tax as well. Backing this key Scottish
:52:01. > :52:05.industry and supporting jobs... And I'm joined now from Aberdeen
:52:06. > :52:17.by the Chief Executive of Oil First of all, what is your response
:52:18. > :52:23.to what George Osborne has just announced?
:52:24. > :52:27.So we certainly welcome it. We see it as a positive step forward in
:52:28. > :52:31.terms of helping the industry reduce the fiscal burden that is on the
:52:32. > :52:34.industry at a time when it is struggling and having to really
:52:35. > :52:40.focus on improving its costs and operations.
:52:41. > :52:43.Right, can you just explain to us, petroleum revenue tax is really a
:52:44. > :52:50.historical thing, it was going down anyway. Which is of most benefit to
:52:51. > :52:53.the oil industry? Is it the tax being abolished or the cut in
:52:54. > :52:59.supplementary charges? So they are both of benefit. The PRT
:53:00. > :53:03.is from a much older fields in the supplementary charge will actually
:53:04. > :53:06.send out positive charge the message to the industry that the Government
:53:07. > :53:11.is listening, does understand the issues that they are facing, and
:53:12. > :53:15.wants to do something about it. This is in line with her driving
:53:16. > :53:19.investment plan. They look to reduce the burden in fight the regime going
:53:20. > :53:23.for the meeting that is very helpful this point.
:53:24. > :53:28.Why is it helpful at this point? If someone was saying earlier on in our
:53:29. > :53:32.programme, the Redbook figures and the OBR figures show that, far from
:53:33. > :53:38.there being any revenues from oil and gas at the moment, it's actually
:53:39. > :53:44.a net cost to the taxpayer. So presumably the cut in the
:53:45. > :53:51.supplementary charge is really a cut to zero. It's a 10% cut to nothing.
:53:52. > :53:56.Yes, but it does send out... What it does is reinforces that this is a
:53:57. > :54:00.much more competitive fiscal regime. So given that a lot of the money has
:54:01. > :54:04.gone out of the industry with a drop with a dramatic drop in the oil
:54:05. > :54:07.price, we are looking to look to Leader of the House make sure that
:54:08. > :54:11.investors, with a look with their global poor for alleles, they look
:54:12. > :54:15.at the UK and think this is actually a good and fiscally competitive
:54:16. > :54:22.regime into which to put their money. So the reduction in this is
:54:23. > :54:26.helpful in putting a message forward. But obviously that would
:54:27. > :54:31.only work in the future, so have you been given any sort of guarantees
:54:32. > :54:38.that this cut in the supplementary charge is now permanent? This is not
:54:39. > :54:42.just for a couple of years? I think, I'm not sure any Government
:54:43. > :54:45.is going to put any permits on that. We do understand that the PRT
:54:46. > :54:51.element will be abolished effectively going forward.
:54:52. > :54:56.We understand that, but as I said, this is just a positive step forward
:54:57. > :55:00.and very well timed, given the struggles that the industry has
:55:01. > :55:05.faced at the moment. One possible problem that I can see with what is
:55:06. > :55:10.announced today, it doesn't specifically, does it, address,
:55:11. > :55:14.encourage companies to get involved in new projects and make new
:55:15. > :55:19.investments. Would you have liked to see something in that department?
:55:20. > :55:22.Our understanding is that we are going through the small print, we've
:55:23. > :55:25.had the headline announcements from the Chancellor, as we are greeting
:55:26. > :55:28.the small print we also understand that the investment allowance on
:55:29. > :55:33.infrastructure is to be increased. So that will be helpful in helping
:55:34. > :55:38.to stimulate activity in the and there are other elements which we
:55:39. > :55:40.understand our part of the Budget in terms of helping around
:55:41. > :55:44.decommissioning liabilities. So there are a package of measures,
:55:45. > :55:48.it's obviously early days, we are straight out of listening to the
:55:49. > :55:53.Chancellor. But we think that, as a package, it is a good step forward
:55:54. > :55:57.at this point in time. Obviously the other point it should be making of
:55:58. > :56:01.course comes a time when industry has been very focused on improving
:56:02. > :56:05.its performance and reducing its cost. We will continue to do that so
:56:06. > :56:09.this is helpful in giving us the confidence that there is an industry
:56:10. > :56:13.worth supporting and that the Government does understand that.
:56:14. > :56:18.All right, thank you very much indeed for joining us.
:56:19. > :56:26.David Bell, can we come back to some of the broader economic 's or even
:56:27. > :56:29.the politics. There was a piece in the Financial Times the other day
:56:30. > :56:34.suggesting that to fulfil his goals that he set down when he became
:56:35. > :56:38.Chancellor George Osborne needs to balance the Budget, but if he wants
:56:39. > :56:42.to become the next Prime Minister he would be better off easing up on
:56:43. > :56:46.that because when it comes down to it middling and would choose not to
:56:47. > :56:52.have higher taxes and don't really care whether he balances the Budget.
:56:53. > :56:58.This balancing the Budget has become a political symbol that he is
:56:59. > :57:05.sticking with, he is the main disciple of that religion at the
:57:06. > :57:10.moment. Economists are kind of pretty... Well, some say this is a
:57:11. > :57:14.good idea but I would guess the majority would argue that if it
:57:15. > :57:20.looks like the economy is going into a downturn and your deficit is
:57:21. > :57:25.around 3.5% of GDP that is not catastrophic, particularly at a time
:57:26. > :57:31.when the cost of borrowing is at a historic low rate. This could be the
:57:32. > :57:43.time to expand capital spending. As Carl Emmerson told you, actually the
:57:44. > :57:47.share of GDP that is public spectacle capital spending has
:57:48. > :57:52.fallen dramatically. There are these great projects, the Northern
:57:53. > :57:57.Powerhouse, Crossrail and so on, but the overall spend... Economists at
:57:58. > :58:00.the IMF and the OECD are saying what is needed is an internationally
:58:01. > :58:08.coordinated programme of public works to create demand in the
:58:09. > :58:12.economy to head off deflation. What those two bodies are saying is
:58:13. > :58:17.closer to what the SNP and Labour have been saying that what George
:58:18. > :58:22.Osborne is saying. There is some truth in that. It looks like the
:58:23. > :58:30.main sources of growth in the world economy, China and so on, are
:58:31. > :58:35.stuttering, and in the absence of such stimuli one way to move things
:58:36. > :58:39.forward is to look to the public sector, especially when spending on
:58:40. > :58:43.capital expands the productive capacity of the economy as a whole.
:58:44. > :58:47.The other side is, George Osborne could have been made Prime Minister
:58:48. > :58:51.before we get the chance to know whether he ever does meet his Budget
:58:52. > :58:57.forecasts. Quite possibly, but may be I think David Cameron will stick
:58:58. > :59:03.in for as long as he can during this Parliamentary term. George Osborne
:59:04. > :59:09.has very firmly put his foot down on the side of Remain in the EU
:59:10. > :59:18.referendum. If the vote is to leave, all bets are off. What indications
:59:19. > :59:25.did you see, David, for the European referendum? He put fuel duty of but
:59:26. > :59:34.it was suggested he didn't want to offend rural Tory MPs who might be
:59:35. > :59:39.inclined to vote Leave. I don't think all that much. There was a bit
:59:40. > :59:45.of tinkering around and disguised measures which don't look all that
:59:46. > :59:48.much in the first instance, for example the 2% increase in public
:59:49. > :59:56.sector pensions. It is actually going to hit public sector costs
:59:57. > :00:02.quite high, but in terms of appealing to the European debate I
:00:03. > :00:07.think he just wanted to keep a low profile, not antagonise people and
:00:08. > :00:13.just hope for steady as she goes. One thing we have noticed, reduction
:00:14. > :00:19.in capital gains tax. A huge incentive for higher rate payers to
:00:20. > :00:27.take capital gains. You pointed out that should the Scottish Government
:00:28. > :00:33.go up to the 50p there is a massive incentive not to leave the country
:00:34. > :00:38.but to take capital gains tax. There is some research a friend at LSE bid
:00:39. > :00:44.around what happened when the additional rate was raised to 50p
:00:45. > :00:50.and then dropped to 45p and what they found was that there was no
:00:51. > :00:54.extra... There is no serious evidence of extra revenue being
:00:55. > :01:00.raised when the additional rate went up to 50p. There was a lot of legal
:01:01. > :01:04.tax avoidance and much of that involved taking your income as
:01:05. > :01:10.profits rather than wages. Thanks for that. The Chancellor also
:01:11. > :01:18.addressed welfare spending, albeit in a less high profile manner than
:01:19. > :01:22.previous budgets. A representative of the Poverty Alliance is in the
:01:23. > :01:30.newsroom. What did you make about what there was on welfare? There was
:01:31. > :01:34.not a lot but an important thing was cuts being confirmed to Personal
:01:35. > :01:37.Independence Payment so we are looking at substantial cuts that
:01:38. > :01:43.people on disability allowance are going to receive, for some people as
:01:44. > :01:51.much as ?3000 a year. Others will see their income dropped from ?82 a
:01:52. > :01:55.week to ?52 a week. It is a lot for people to be losing, particularly
:01:56. > :02:01.those on low incomes. It is made worse when we contrast it against
:02:02. > :02:04.the tax cuts for higher rate taxpayers. We have to think about
:02:05. > :02:13.the message that is sending the people. -- to people in receipt of
:02:14. > :02:18.these Personal Independence Payment is about how we value their
:02:19. > :02:25.participation. George Osborne said at one point that this government is
:02:26. > :02:30.now spending more on the disabled than the last Labour government did.
:02:31. > :02:35.You have just described some of the effects of the cuts. How do we put
:02:36. > :02:44.these things together? Is other help coming through that can explain why
:02:45. > :02:49.the budgets are apparently rising? I can't explain it. The people we work
:02:50. > :02:51.with are not telling us they are feeling any benefits. When we speak
:02:52. > :02:56.to people about Personal Independence Payments they talk
:02:57. > :03:01.about the difficult assessment process, the hoops they have to jump
:03:02. > :03:07.through to qualify for anything. These changes coming from 2017, or
:03:08. > :03:12.now for new claimants, mean we are putting an additional hurdle in
:03:13. > :03:16.their for new people. We are talking about changes in how we assess
:03:17. > :03:20.people who need help going to the toilet or getting dressed they are
:03:21. > :03:26.simple things but they have a massive impact on people's lives and
:03:27. > :03:29.their ability to act independently. We are seeing that taken off them.
:03:30. > :03:33.While we are hearing from the Chancellor that there might be more
:03:34. > :03:39.money being spent on it, people on the ground say they are not feeling
:03:40. > :03:43.that. You mentioned the difficulty of claiming. Explain that. Is it
:03:44. > :03:48.your view that people who administer these things are being told, what,
:03:49. > :03:54.to make it more difficult for people to claim or make the whole process
:03:55. > :04:01.more difficult to get through? The whole process is quite daunting and
:04:02. > :04:04.one thing we have seen with people going to Personal Independence
:04:05. > :04:08.Payment assessments is that they are coming back and finding they are no
:04:09. > :04:12.longer eligible and they are going through the appeals process and
:04:13. > :04:21.being told in fact they are. People are saying they are maybe being
:04:22. > :04:24.judged on their ability to walk across a room and being judged on
:04:25. > :04:29.their ability to work, even though they know they are not. There is a
:04:30. > :04:36.lack of mental health being taken into consideration and stupid things
:04:37. > :04:38.like whether you are able to lift a cup. People are finding that the
:04:39. > :04:42.assessment process is not reflecting their disability. They are being
:04:43. > :04:46.found fit for work when they know they aren't and having to go through
:04:47. > :04:53.a long appeals process, and additional stress on people who are
:04:54. > :04:57.already finding things difficult. Let's talk to David Bell and David
:04:58. > :05:03.Clegg. Picking up on what you said about higher rate tax, is this going
:05:04. > :05:08.to be a limitation on any Scottish Government, not just the current
:05:09. > :05:13.one? The famous statement, somebody in private equity said they were
:05:14. > :05:17.paying less tax than a cleaner. That is because they invest in companies,
:05:18. > :05:23.they make ?1 million profit, they take the million pounds and they pay
:05:24. > :05:31.20% capital kick -- capital gains tax on it and they pay themselves a
:05:32. > :05:35.salary using that. Given that has become even more attractive, is that
:05:36. > :05:39.a limitation on what the Scottish Government can do? It is a
:05:40. > :05:43.limitation. We don't know what will happen if the Scottish Government
:05:44. > :05:49.raises the marginal rate. It is 45p at the moment. If they raise that we
:05:50. > :05:53.don't know. There maybe some people who just grin and bear it, some
:05:54. > :06:01.people may move, some people may decide to take income as capital
:06:02. > :06:05.gains rather than earnings. -- take the income. It is suddenly a risky
:06:06. > :06:08.environment for the Scottish Government and they probably will
:06:09. > :06:14.proceed with caution because it is difficult to calibrate what will
:06:15. > :06:19.happen should you make a change... Brian Taylor was suggesting they are
:06:20. > :06:26.likely not to increase the threshold for 40p. Zoom agree that is minor
:06:27. > :06:36.enough that people are unlikely to leave the country. -- it would seem
:06:37. > :06:39.that is minor enough. John Swinney and because sturgeon but said at the
:06:40. > :06:43.weekend that they did not think it was the right time to lower the tax
:06:44. > :06:51.bill of the well off. I think that means they will mock -- they will
:06:52. > :06:58.not match what is happening in the UK, but also if that there was a
:06:59. > :07:08.lower band they wouldn't match that either. What we just heard was a
:07:09. > :07:13.reminder that although the tax credits, they didn't go ahead with
:07:14. > :07:17.that, there are still cuts in welfare, and they are affecting some
:07:18. > :07:25.of the most vulnerable people. The spokesman from the Poverty Alliance
:07:26. > :07:32.set it out pretty clearly. Saying they are reducing the burden on the
:07:33. > :07:35.better paid is problematic for the SNP because they are taking money
:07:36. > :07:41.off people who are struggling to afford it. If they don't keep the
:07:42. > :07:45.rate as it is at the moment they are lacking credibility whenever they
:07:46. > :07:51.attack disability cuts, because these two things have to be seen in
:07:52. > :07:58.the round. What are the politics of this? We talked a bit about how
:07:59. > :08:02.George Osborne can claim that the British economy is doing
:08:03. > :08:06.fantastically well. If you are Labour, and the SNP don't worry
:08:07. > :08:11.because they have won everything in Scotland, but if you want to
:08:12. > :08:16.challenge intellectually across the UK, how do you do it? The Labour
:08:17. > :08:20.Party are starting to put together a more coherent macroeconomics story,
:08:21. > :08:27.which goes back to Gordon Brown, that the government should borrow to
:08:28. > :08:35.invest. That seemed to come out last week from the Labour Party. George
:08:36. > :08:41.Osborne says, yes, I am, I am building a motorway and a railway...
:08:42. > :08:45.As we have established, you can have these headlines that look very good
:08:46. > :08:48.at in the round the amount of capital spending by government is
:08:49. > :08:55.quite considerably down on where it was ten years ago. Would you agree
:08:56. > :08:59.that there has to be something more intellectually substantial on the
:09:00. > :09:05.opposition's part than moaning about cuts all the time? Yes, and they are
:09:06. > :09:09.struggling to get a hearing largely because of their internal battles
:09:10. > :09:12.within the Labour Party. They are letting George Osborne get away with
:09:13. > :09:15.murder because they are fighting each other. On the capital
:09:16. > :09:19.investment thing, with the new powers we are getting on borrowing
:09:20. > :09:27.in Scotland, we could have a test case on that were John Swinney might
:09:28. > :09:30.be investing a higher proportion of the Budget. Some would say that John
:09:31. > :09:36.McDonnell and a few others are putting together a better critique.
:09:37. > :09:40.It doesn't seem to be coming across. There are a lot of areas in the
:09:41. > :09:44.Budget with a traditional social justice brief that you could go at.
:09:45. > :09:50.I am not sure we saw Jeremy Corbyn do that. It is always difficult as
:09:51. > :09:55.Leader of the Opposition to reply to a Budget because they don't know
:09:56. > :10:03.what is in it in advance. That is all we have time for.
:10:04. > :10:05.Reporting Scotland will have further coverage of the Budget