:00:18. > :00:22.Hello and welcome to the last Politics Scotland of 2013. Coming
:00:23. > :00:26.up... Good news on the employment figures,
:00:27. > :00:29.with more people in a job, but pay still lags behind inflation.
:00:30. > :00:40.With Christmas round the corner, MSPs debate new plans to tackle
:00:41. > :00:45.payday loans - we'll have that live. At Westminster, claim and
:00:46. > :00:49.counterclaim over the health of Scottish finances.
:00:50. > :00:53.And as it's our last show we take a look at the A to Z of 2013 with our
:00:54. > :00:56.panel of guests. But first, the number of Scots
:00:57. > :01:01.seeking work in August to October was down by 7000, while the number
:01:02. > :01:05.of people in work was up. That is in line with the figures for the UK as
:01:06. > :01:07.a whole, though pay continues to lag behind inflation. Here is our
:01:08. > :01:11.business and economy editor, Douglas Fraser.
:01:12. > :01:15.There is some Christmas cheer from today's figures, even as they cover
:01:16. > :01:24.August to October. The number of Scots seeking work down by 7000 to
:01:25. > :01:28.196,000. 99,000 fewer in the UK seeking work. In Scotland the
:01:29. > :01:36.unemployment rate has reached 7.1% and the UK rate is down to 7.4%,
:01:37. > :01:39.down to the 7% which the Bank of England has said could signal
:01:40. > :01:45.sufficient economic recovery for interest rates to start writing
:01:46. > :01:48.again. With 11,000 more Scots in work on the Scottish Government is
:01:49. > :01:57.highlighting a record number of Scots women working. We now have
:01:58. > :02:03.more women in employment than any of - ever before, in excess of 1.2
:02:04. > :02:10.million which is really good news. It is that increase that is driving
:02:11. > :02:18.the overall increase in employment. The data also includes pay and it
:02:19. > :02:22.was up in the year to October by 0.9%, still short of the inflation
:02:23. > :02:26.rate. Real spending power is still being squeezed.
:02:27. > :02:29.Let's discuss this a bit further now with our guests for the afternoon,
:02:30. > :02:38.the political commentator Alf Young and Gillian Bowditch from The Sunday
:02:39. > :02:43.Times. Good afternoon. Alf, looking at these figures, it is pretty good
:02:44. > :02:46.news for the economy. Yes, in general terms it is good news and
:02:47. > :02:53.for many people quite surprising news in terms of jobs it is recovery
:02:54. > :02:58.is still quite slack. There is a recovery in output but the fact that
:02:59. > :03:03.the market is as resilient as it appears to be as good news. It
:03:04. > :03:10.appears to be in line with the rest of the UK. The improvement is
:03:11. > :03:15.Scotland is slightly better in terms of the jobless rate. -- in Scotland.
:03:16. > :03:23.In terms of new jobs being created, pretty similar. The Scottish number
:03:24. > :03:27.and the UK number both mask huge variation in the country at large.
:03:28. > :03:34.In the north East of England unemployment is still under 10%. In
:03:35. > :03:41.Aberdeenshire it is maybe down to 1%, 2%. You have enormous variation.
:03:42. > :03:47.Gillian, seeing in the film that there is record numbers of women in
:03:48. > :03:54.employment since the records started being taken 21 years ago. That is to
:03:55. > :03:58.be welcomed obviously. We still have a situation where wages for women
:03:59. > :04:06.tend to lack behind and more women are in part-time work, but very good
:04:07. > :04:09.news and certainly for women who have wanted to get back into the
:04:10. > :04:14.workforce after perhaps having children or their husbands being
:04:15. > :04:17.affected by the recession, it is good that these jobs are available.
:04:18. > :04:25.It is interesting about wages because they are short of inflation
:04:26. > :04:30.so pay is still being squeezed. Living standards are being squeezed
:04:31. > :04:34.because people are not making enough to make up for the rise in prices.
:04:35. > :04:38.That is part of the dynamic, not just that the economy is creating
:04:39. > :04:50.the jobs but that women are seeking to go out to work because it is a
:04:51. > :04:54.necessity. We are also finding significant numbers of older people
:04:55. > :04:58.going back to work, although they are in receipt of the state pension,
:04:59. > :05:03.because they need to supplement it to pay for energy bills and the
:05:04. > :05:11.rest. There are a number of dynamisms at work. We have good
:05:12. > :05:16.figures, Gillian, in unemployment, maybe growth coming back in, but the
:05:17. > :05:23.cost of living fright -- crisis is as Labour frame said. The
:05:24. > :05:28.Conservatives and the SNP can both claimed they have helped to drive
:05:29. > :05:32.these figures, Ed Miliband can complain about the very real
:05:33. > :05:38.squeezed the families. Plenty for politicians to get their teeth into.
:05:39. > :05:43.We will see you both shortly. Let's get some political reaction to
:05:44. > :05:46.this. We will cross live to Holyrood and join the SNP's Kevin Stewart,
:05:47. > :05:47.Liam McArthur from the Liberal Democrats and Labour's Ken
:05:48. > :05:51.Macintosh. It is the time of year when we are
:05:52. > :06:03.all spending extra but there is concern about what happens when that
:06:04. > :06:09.gets out of control. Good news for the Scottish and
:06:10. > :06:14.British governments. Unemployment is lower in Scotland than the rest of
:06:15. > :06:18.the UK and that is extremely good news but I still think we could do
:06:19. > :06:24.more if we had all of the levers of power of an independent country. For
:06:25. > :06:29.me, the particularly good news in all of this is the fact that women
:06:30. > :06:35.in employment is at its highest since records began. We could do
:06:36. > :06:43.even better there as well if we had independence. In Denmark, 79% of
:06:44. > :06:48.women with children under six are in employment. In the UK it is only
:06:49. > :06:56.59%. With independence we could do much better. We can put that to Liam
:06:57. > :07:03.McArthur. Good news for the UK economy as a whole but let's look at
:07:04. > :07:08.what he was saying, mentioning childcare, a key divide it in the
:07:09. > :07:13.independence debate. How could the economy improved if we take on what
:07:14. > :07:18.the SNP are saying? Kevin is right, it is a good news in Scotland and in
:07:19. > :07:22.the UK and it justifies the difficult but necessary decisions we
:07:23. > :07:30.have taken in relation to the UK economy. I am interested that
:07:31. > :07:34.childcare has been chosen by the SNP as a flagship dividing line in the
:07:35. > :07:39.debate around breaking up the UK. We have all of the powers we need to
:07:40. > :07:43.deliver childcare now, it is about political choices and the choice the
:07:44. > :07:48.government has made is in relation to extending provision to
:07:49. > :07:53.two-year-olds, which is happening south of the border, but the SNP
:07:54. > :07:58.have decided to hold that hostage in return for a yes vote next year. I
:07:59. > :08:02.think that will be seen as passing strange by not just women in
:08:03. > :08:09.Scotland but parents right across Scotland. Why doesn't the Scottish
:08:10. > :08:12.Government just do it now? The difficulty is that we don't control
:08:13. > :08:20.our finances at this moment in time. The extra taxation could be
:08:21. > :08:25.put in to provide more childcare. I would have more respect for him and
:08:26. > :08:28.his colleagues if they said that the Treasury would guarantee that any
:08:29. > :08:35.money made would comeback to Scotland to fund the policy. They
:08:36. > :08:41.won't make that promise. Liam McArthur, the Treasury give ring a
:08:42. > :08:51.promised that the extra money will go for a living. -- giving. We have
:08:52. > :08:57.had previous on this. We have the powers to deal with this now. We
:08:58. > :09:02.have eight children and young people Bill who has -- which has the
:09:03. > :09:06.opportunity to put this in practice so the SNP government has to deal
:09:07. > :09:12.with this instead of holding it hostage. Ken Macintosh, back on
:09:13. > :09:17.track with the economy, perhaps rather awkward figures that Ed
:09:18. > :09:21.Miliband today at PMQs. He welcomes the good news about the figures but
:09:22. > :09:26.you are still pursuing the cost of living crisis when it looks like the
:09:27. > :09:29.economy is growing. There is a cost of living crisis and it is right for
:09:30. > :09:34.us to talk about the issues that worry people. The ferry to the last
:09:35. > :09:38.interchange, it worries me that Kevin Stewart basically seems to be
:09:39. > :09:42.more concerned with the income that this policy would generate for the
:09:43. > :09:58.Scottish Government than the fact that it would help women back into
:09:59. > :10:03.work. That is nonsense. This is not a political story, it is about what
:10:04. > :10:07.it means to people. Whether Scotland or England is doing better is beside
:10:08. > :10:16.the point. At the moment there are 75,000 people not in work from the
:10:17. > :10:22.pre-recession hi. This is not anything that can be described as
:10:23. > :10:26.first class. It is a very difficult time for most people. If you look
:10:27. > :10:31.beyond the headline figures, there are some quite worrying news today.
:10:32. > :10:41.The economic activity level has increased by 10000 and long-term
:10:42. > :10:47.youth unemployment has increased. -- economic inactivity. The people with
:10:48. > :10:52.temporary jobs has gone up. People are going back to temporary,
:10:53. > :10:57.insecure, irregular work. Rather like the number of women in
:10:58. > :11:01.employment going up, it is a news story but it is probably the case
:11:02. > :11:04.that many families are having to go back to the workplace to supplement
:11:05. > :11:13.their earnings because they are feeling squeezed. Another issue
:11:14. > :11:16.related to that, you will be debating the Bankruptcy and Debt
:11:17. > :11:19.Advice Bill, people turning to payday loan lenders. How will this
:11:20. > :11:25.help people in financial trouble, Kevin Stewart? I think this bill
:11:26. > :11:31.creates a financial health service to try to ensure that people do not
:11:32. > :11:37.get into debt. I would say that the government's 12 days of debt
:11:38. > :11:42.campaign is a particularly good one and I think there has been a lot of
:11:43. > :11:47.response to that. However, one of the things that drive spoke into
:11:48. > :11:52.debt is payday loan companies. One of the disappointing things is that
:11:53. > :11:57.the Westminster government refuses to cap those companies until the 1st
:11:58. > :12:02.of January 2015. I think there should be brought forward. Beyond
:12:03. > :12:05.that, the Westminster government's welfare reform policies will also
:12:06. > :12:11.drive more and more people into debt. Let's put that to Liam
:12:12. > :12:15.McArthur. It is being debated this afternoon in Parliament at
:12:16. > :12:21.Westminster could be taking action just now? In terms of the welfare
:12:22. > :12:26.reform process, what we have seen from the SNP is absolutely no detail
:12:27. > :12:32.on the alternative provisions they would bring forward. They have not
:12:33. > :12:37.explained how they would plug the ?2.5 billion gap in our finances and
:12:38. > :12:41.indeed they have acknowledged the need to reform welfare and make it
:12:42. > :12:48.simpler without abiding any detail so I think it lacks any credibility
:12:49. > :12:52.and is a black hole in the middle of the white paper. In terms of this
:12:53. > :12:58.afternoon's proceedings, it is generally cross-party support for
:12:59. > :13:03.work in this area, we do need to ensure, as Kevin said, that people
:13:04. > :13:07.do not fall into debt in the first place and there are measures to be
:13:08. > :13:11.taken in terms of improving advice they are getting. There is concern
:13:12. > :13:17.about extending the payback period the debt to four years. I know it is
:13:18. > :13:21.a fine balance between those in debt and those who are owed but concerns
:13:22. > :13:27.are legitimately being raised about extending that to four years and
:13:28. > :13:34.whether that would not increase the problems for those who are trying to
:13:35. > :13:38.get out of debt. Is There Cross-party Consensus On This Bill?
:13:39. > :13:43.There Are Some Concerns About Citizens Advice And People Like That
:13:44. > :13:49.Not Been Given Enough Money. It Is Not Cross-party Consensus. What
:13:50. > :13:55.Worries Me Is There Has Not Been a chance to do something in
:13:56. > :13:58.Parliament. This will increase the major in bankruptcy. Kevin can talk
:13:59. > :14:03.about is what Westminster should do. Why doesn't this using social
:14:04. > :14:07.advertising funds to tackle these payday lenders? Why don't we extend
:14:08. > :14:11.the loan guarantee fund to credit unions to provide practical support?
:14:12. > :14:15.This Bill this afternoon does nothing, absolutely nothing to help
:14:16. > :14:22.people with debt. Instead, my suspicion is it is about funding
:14:23. > :14:27.bankruptcy and taking it from the Government books. It doesn't help
:14:28. > :14:29.people who are struggling. If the reaction of the SNP in every
:14:30. > :14:40.situation is to say, what should Westminster do? I despair. We have
:14:41. > :14:48.to leave it there. Gentleman, thank you very much for joining me.
:14:49. > :14:51.It is that time of year when we are all spending extra, but there's
:14:52. > :14:54.concern about what happens when that gets out of control. MSPs are
:14:55. > :14:57.debating the Bankruptcy and Debt Advice Bill in the chamber this
:14:58. > :15:00.afternoon. It's the stage one debate and it's expected to pass its first
:15:01. > :15:06.Parliamentary hurdle. Let's listen in to that now. The ministers
:15:07. > :15:12.speaking for the Scottish Government.
:15:13. > :15:17.We will see what we can do at stage two in order to achieve that. We
:15:18. > :15:21.take the kick two technical criticisms made by somebody is on
:15:22. > :15:26.this aspect of the Bill very seriously, of course. The committee
:15:27. > :15:32.has passed on concerns about the ?10,000 threshold for entry into the
:15:33. > :15:39.minimum assets process. Our new boot two route into bankruptcy by
:15:40. > :15:42.debtors. I am happy to say they will be back in January with an amendment
:15:43. > :15:47.to raise the maximum debt level. We propose an increase to ?17,000, an
:15:48. > :15:52.increase which would set the threshold high enough to enable 75%
:15:53. > :15:58.of all current cases to enter the MEP process. I hope this will
:15:59. > :16:03.provide the necessary assurance that this important debt relief will be
:16:04. > :16:05.available to those who need it most. The committee has raised the
:16:06. > :16:11.important issue of bank accounts for and discharged debtors. It is
:16:12. > :16:14.important we look at this and do what we can to make the necessary
:16:15. > :16:18.provision during the amending stages and I have written to the British
:16:19. > :16:22.banking Association to enlist their support. Of course, there are a
:16:23. > :16:26.number of areas where the committee has agreed with the Scottish
:16:27. > :16:30.Government. I am pleased that the committee has agreed a proposal to
:16:31. > :16:34.extend the payment period after bankruptcy to cover 48 monthly
:16:35. > :16:37.payments. I know, presiding Officer, that not everyone supports
:16:38. > :16:45.this proposal, but it is important to have a debate on the basis of the
:16:46. > :16:49.facts. First, it is not correct to say that this change will mean that
:16:50. > :16:54.people in Scotland will have to pay back more to creditors than in any
:16:55. > :16:58.other part of the UK. This is because there are insolvency
:16:59. > :17:03.measures elsewhere in England and Wales such as individual voluntary
:17:04. > :17:11.arrangements will the payment period is not four years, but is usually
:17:12. > :17:16.five years. Second, at the same time as this change comes into force, we
:17:17. > :17:19.will be fixing the common financial statement which is already
:17:20. > :17:24.applicable in respect of some cases and from November in other cases,
:17:25. > :17:29.which is run by the money advice trust, as the Scottish common
:17:30. > :17:32.financial tool. This is important because it means contributions will
:17:33. > :17:40.be set according to a consistent, transparent termination. Our
:17:41. > :17:44.research has shown the should sit down might mean a more sustainable
:17:45. > :17:48.level of contributions. We also recognise the importance of
:17:49. > :17:51.providing guidance on the practical ordination of the tool to ensure it
:17:52. > :17:59.works in practice. But, it is not true to say that longer payment
:18:00. > :18:09.periods automatically lead to an... -- lead to an increase. We have had
:18:10. > :18:15.reasonable stability since 2012 with 3% approximately. 3% of breakage is
:18:16. > :18:24.approximately means that it is 97% of cases which are ordered -- or not
:18:25. > :18:29.or tempered with the debtor and the debtor pays off his debts in full.
:18:30. > :18:34.That strongly to be welcomed. I will do so in a minute, because as
:18:35. > :18:40.paragraph 34 says, one of the objectors of this Bill is that those
:18:41. > :18:49.who can pay should be. I will take intervention. Thank you. It is my
:18:50. > :18:54.understanding that the European Commission has recommended that the
:18:55. > :18:56.payment periods should in principle be 1-3 years and no longer than
:18:57. > :19:00.three years. I understand that nowhere else in the UK we have a
:19:01. > :19:05.payment period longer than three years. Why has the Scottish
:19:06. > :19:14.Government recommended, against advice of many of the people I gave
:19:15. > :19:18.advice to the committee? I have to correct the member on a number of
:19:19. > :19:24.respects. First of all, Savannah 's advice to the Scottish Government,
:19:25. > :19:32.-- so far as the advice to the Scottish Government, 42 members of
:19:33. > :19:37.the Commission supported a four-year option. It is plainly a compromise
:19:38. > :19:44.but the majority supported five years. Secondly, she said that in
:19:45. > :19:48.England they do not pay for as long. Perhaps she was not listening to
:19:49. > :19:54.what I said a moment ago. I said that individual voluntary
:19:55. > :20:00.arrangements, which are agreements payable in England and Wales,
:20:01. > :20:09.usually last for five years. That is longer than four years, not shorter.
:20:10. > :20:14.I am afraid that those who argue that the position in England is that
:20:15. > :20:19.debtors pay for a longer period are not taking account of the facts that
:20:20. > :20:23.the opposite is the case because individual voluntary arrangements
:20:24. > :20:30.usually, not always, for various technical reasons, but usually last
:20:31. > :20:35.for five years. I will take intervention in a moment. I
:20:36. > :20:40.understand that as a campaign mounted by the Labour Party, and I
:20:41. > :20:43.would suggest you take advice from Tam DL, who knew a bit about
:20:44. > :20:52.campaigning, which is that the first thing that should do in a campaign
:20:53. > :20:54.is get your facts right. I wonder if the Minister would recognise that is
:20:55. > :20:57.a difference between an individual voluntary agreement and bankruptcy
:20:58. > :21:02.and what he is in fact doing is comparing apples with oranges? No, I
:21:03. > :21:07.am very sorry to have to disagree, because I respect the strong passion
:21:08. > :21:11.she brings to this topic and the work she does. It is simply not
:21:12. > :21:17.correct to say that we are comparing like with unlike. Individual
:21:18. > :21:21.voluntary arrangements are cleverly comparable with the insolvency
:21:22. > :21:27.arrangements in Scotland and the truth is that this is a campaign
:21:28. > :21:36.which has got off to a faltering start because it is not founded on
:21:37. > :21:39.backs. -- on facts. I have the analysis of the consultation in
:21:40. > :21:46.front of me. The question is posed, if yes, what would that extension
:21:47. > :21:49.be? But the qualifying note under it says the majority of respondents who
:21:50. > :21:58.answered this question felt that an extension was not necessary. They
:21:59. > :22:03.answered only hypothetical point. Would the Minister committed to
:22:04. > :22:08.going away and looking at the accountants and bankruptcy analysis
:22:09. > :22:18.again? No, I will not, because I have it in front of me. I rather
:22:19. > :22:30.thought this topic might come up. Question 10.41A, three or four
:22:31. > :22:39.years? The answer was 27. The answer to five years, that was 32. More
:22:40. > :22:42.than three years. There was a majority for a longer period than
:22:43. > :22:47.they propose. You could say that the numbers are evenly matched between
:22:48. > :22:50.three and five years. If you do, it is difficult to see how it would be
:22:51. > :22:56.unreasonable to come forward with four years as a compromise, as it is
:22:57. > :23:12.exactly a Goodison Park team three and five years. -- as it is Ecuador
:23:13. > :23:15.cousin -- as it is equity soon. To Prime Minister's Questions now
:23:16. > :23:18.and David Cameron told the Commons the fall in unemployment showed the
:23:19. > :23:21.Government's economic plans were working. Ed Miliband welcomed the
:23:22. > :23:24.figures but said that too many people were in part-time or low-paid
:23:25. > :23:26.work. There were a few festive turkey jokes too.
:23:27. > :23:33.Today's economic figures show a welcome fall in unemployment. And
:23:34. > :23:37.for every person... For every person that gets back into work, it
:23:38. > :23:42.benefits not just them by the family as well. Does he agree with me that
:23:43. > :23:44.it is a major challenge for a Britain that at the end of this
:23:45. > :23:47.year, there are more people than ever before in today's figures
:23:48. > :23:54.working part-time because they cannot get hours they need? First of
:23:55. > :23:59.all, I think it is worth looking at these unemployment details and some
:24:00. > :24:05.detail, because they paid an encouraging figure. An appointment
:24:06. > :24:07.is down by 95,000. The number of people claiming unemployment benefit
:24:08. > :24:14.has fallen by 36,000 in this month alone. There are 250,000 more people
:24:15. > :24:18.in work. Youth unemployment is down, long-term unemployment is down,
:24:19. > :24:21.unemployment amongst women is down. We have talked before about 1
:24:22. > :24:26.million more people in work under this Government. It is now 1.2
:24:27. > :24:32.million more people in work. Now, there shouldn't be one ounce of
:24:33. > :24:36.complacency because we have still got work to do to get our country
:24:37. > :24:40.back to work and everyone back in work. It means greater stability for
:24:41. > :24:45.them, greater ability to plan for the future, greater help for their
:24:46. > :24:48.families. The thing they want to talk about waste of all is the cost
:24:49. > :24:52.of living crisis facing families up and down the country. That is
:24:53. > :24:58.because they know families are worse off. Can he tell us, how much higher
:24:59. > :25:03.is the average gas and electricity Bill this Christmas compared to
:25:04. > :25:08.last? They have a programme which will clearly leads to the
:25:09. > :25:12.disappearance of 1 million jobs. Now we have 1.6 million more
:25:13. > :25:16.private-sector jobs, 1.2 million more people in work, it is time he
:25:17. > :25:24.apologised for his prediction of talking the economy going. --
:25:25. > :25:27.talking the economy down. Let us compare our records the cost of
:25:28. > :25:33.living. They doubled council tax, we have frozen it. They put up Vettel
:25:34. > :25:40.tax 12 times, and we have frozen it. They put up the basic state pension
:25:41. > :25:50.eye 75p, up be increased by ?15. We have a new hand gesture from the
:25:51. > :25:57.Shadow Chancellor. After today's breathing in the papers, the gesture
:25:58. > :26:05.should be goodbye. You do not need it to be Christmas to know you're
:26:06. > :26:09.sitting next to a turkey. I can give the House something to cheer about.
:26:10. > :26:12.Will the Prime Minister join with me in welcoming the fact that
:26:13. > :26:17.investment in our oil and gas industry will reach a record
:26:18. > :26:22.amount, counting for an unemployment rate in my constituency of just 7%?
:26:23. > :26:27.Is he aware of the report that says we need collaboration between
:26:28. > :26:31.Government and industry to unlock barrels of oil worth ?200 billion
:26:32. > :26:37.which would otherwise be left in that the sea. It is an excellent
:26:38. > :26:40.support and we are looking to put that in place. We want to maximise
:26:41. > :26:45.the returns and employment and investment in the North Sea. In
:26:46. > :26:48.recent months, we have seen encouraging signs of greater
:26:49. > :26:51.investment in a North Sea, not least because of the decisions taken by
:26:52. > :26:55.the chance to bring into play some of these more marginal fields. We
:26:56. > :27:00.need to keep that up and lament that report. -- implement that report.
:27:01. > :27:03.Let's stay down at Westminster and speak to our correspondent David
:27:04. > :27:09.Porter, who's standing by on College Green. Thanks for joining us. An
:27:10. > :27:12.issue that didn't come up at Prime Minister 's questions but has been
:27:13. > :27:17.talked about quite a lot at Westminster today is nutritionally
:27:18. > :27:20.figures which claim to show a big funding gap in the Scottish
:27:21. > :27:25.Government's white paper. What is the story here? Since the
:27:26. > :27:30.publication of this white paper by the Scottish Government on
:27:31. > :27:36.independence, the people at the Treasury have been looking at the
:27:37. > :27:43.Cal Deuters number crunching. They came up with figures which would
:27:44. > :27:47.suggest a large black hole in the Scottish budget if they went
:27:48. > :27:49.independent. They have estimated that if you add up the cost of
:27:50. > :27:55.childcare provision, reduce air passenger duty, and corporation tax,
:27:56. > :28:01.but the Scottish Government could be left with the black hole of ?1.6
:28:02. > :28:06.billion in their budget. They say this would either have to be filled
:28:07. > :28:10.by expenditure cuts or tax rises or something like that. The Scottish
:28:11. > :28:16.Government have been quick to react. They accuse the UK Government's
:28:17. > :28:19.figures of being all over the place. They say the Treasury figures do not
:28:20. > :28:24.take into any account the fact that if you have better child provision,
:28:25. > :28:27.for instance, you get more women back in the workforce and more
:28:28. > :28:35.people paying tax. They say that the measures will help boost the
:28:36. > :28:42.economy. What we are seeing is an old-fashioned argument about
:28:43. > :28:48.spending and what Westminster and Holyrood are arguing about. We will
:28:49. > :29:00.hear more about this in 2014. It feels like we have been here
:29:01. > :29:06.before, with all of the black holes around, which has now come down to
:29:07. > :29:11.1.6 billion. It seems like that doing and froing that happens
:29:12. > :29:15.because of the referendum next year. Yes, all sides take the statistics
:29:16. > :29:21.which they think are going to be important to them and make a case
:29:22. > :29:24.from that. On one level it is political rhetoric, on the other
:29:25. > :29:29.level it is important because when people vote in September they will
:29:30. > :29:33.probably vote on the emotional argument but also probably on the
:29:34. > :29:37.economic questions, whether they feel they will be better off or not
:29:38. > :29:44.in an independent Scotland. Whoever wins the economic battle will feel
:29:45. > :29:50.like they have done well. That is why both sides are fighting so hard
:29:51. > :29:55.for this ground. Let's turn our attention back to PMQs. David
:29:56. > :30:01.Cameron seemed to destroy the Labour opposition, waving farewell to Ed
:30:02. > :30:11.balls, because of a briefing that has been in the Son. Are people
:30:12. > :30:18.talking about the future of Ed balls? Yes, it is easiest to be a
:30:19. > :30:23.Shadow Chancellor when the economy is not going well. Now the economy
:30:24. > :30:29.seems to be improving, we have had the unemployment figures, better
:30:30. > :30:33.growth figures, and as you alluded to a couple of weeks ago the Autumn
:30:34. > :30:45.Statement, when George Osborne was able to taunt Ed Balls. Many people
:30:46. > :30:52.feel that was not Ed Balls's finest day at the office. As regards
:30:53. > :30:58.gestures and things, recently, when the economy was flat-lining, Ed
:30:59. > :31:03.Balls used to do this to George Osborne and David Cameron, hinting
:31:04. > :31:08.that the economy was flat-lining. Today, Mr Cameron, buoyed by the
:31:09. > :31:12.unemployment figures, was keen to try to create the impression that
:31:13. > :31:22.perhaps Ed Miliband used to do another hand gesture, waving Ed
:31:23. > :31:26.Balls goodbye. Thank you very much. Alf Young and Gillian Bowditch are
:31:27. > :31:30.still with me. Let's pick up on the Treasury claim about the ?1.6
:31:31. > :31:38.billion funding gap in the white paper. As John Swinney says, it
:31:39. > :31:44.seems like we have been here before. I find this use of the metaphor of
:31:45. > :31:49.the black hole entirely unpersuasive because what it says to all of us is
:31:50. > :31:53.that we are never going to get any sense out of these numbers. The
:31:54. > :32:00.simple reality under this is, if you cut the tax, the amount of revenue
:32:01. > :32:05.coming in will initially the less. If corporation tax or so on is
:32:06. > :32:10.lower. Unless more people fly or companies make more money, in which
:32:11. > :32:17.case more money comes back in. It is not an argument about black holes,
:32:18. > :32:21.it is an argument predicated on the economy growing faster and getting
:32:22. > :32:25.bigger so that the revenues come in. That is a debate that Scottish
:32:26. > :32:29.people should really be thinking about, are they persuaded that if
:32:30. > :32:37.there is free childcare or low passenger duty on air flights or low
:32:38. > :32:40.corporation tax, will people in Scotland work harder, created a
:32:41. > :32:49.bigger economy and produce the revenues that will allow that to
:32:50. > :32:53.happen? -- create. Do people take the arguments about funding gaps on
:32:54. > :32:58.when they are thinking about how to vote? I think people do have
:32:59. > :33:06.concerns about the economy, I think that is a major topic that people
:33:07. > :33:13.will look at when voting but a new Shia -- the minutiae are extremely
:33:14. > :33:16.compact hated. We have a number of companies questioning that there is
:33:17. > :33:22.going to be a lag, it takes a while for these taxes to come back. There
:33:23. > :33:26.is no such thing as free childcare, the taxpayer will pay. People at
:33:27. > :33:32.that level understand these arguments. Where it gets, the gated
:33:33. > :33:38.is in the minutiae and the big numbers bandied around, but the
:33:39. > :33:42.question is how they are going to balance the books in an independent
:33:43. > :33:50.Scotland and I don't think that has been satisfactorily answered yet? Ed
:33:51. > :33:56.Balls, do you think he could be in trouble? That story in the Son said
:33:57. > :34:06.he could be out of a job in the autumn? -- the sun. It seems
:34:07. > :34:10.unbelievable to me that if they were going to sack him by would wait
:34:11. > :34:17.until next autumn. If they are going to do it, they should do it now.
:34:18. > :34:20.Stay with us, we will be back with you in a moment.
:34:21. > :34:22.Now as it's the final programme of the year let's take a look back with
:34:23. > :37:35.our A to Z of 2013. There is blood on your shirt. It is
:37:36. > :38:30.not mine. Scotland's future is now in
:38:31. > :38:35.Scotland's hands. There is nothing new in it, nothing published today
:38:36. > :39:28.that they could not have told us about yesterday.
:39:29. > :39:41.Never, never, and never again shall it be that this beautiful land will
:39:42. > :39:55.again experience the oppression of one by another. The sun sun never
:39:56. > :40:09.shed -- the sun shall never set on so glorious and achievement.
:40:10. > :40:19.I said, what news? So she told me that her daughter had phoned from
:40:20. > :40:28.London to alert her to the fact that I had got this prize.
:40:29. > :40:33.Good evening. Helicopter has crashed into the sea off Shetland. -- a
:40:34. > :42:42.helicopter. This is clearly anti-British and NT
:42:43. > :43:01.-- and anti-English. They hate the union Jack, so...
:43:02. > :43:53.We will freeze gas and electricity prices until the start of 2017.
:43:54. > :44:01.Regrettably, that will mean 835 job losses across Filton, the Clyde and
:44:02. > :44:02.Rosyth and the closure of the company's shipbuilding yard in
:44:03. > :44:36.Portsmouth. So, let's chew over 2013 with our
:44:37. > :44:39.political commentators. Alf Young is still here with the Sunday Times
:44:40. > :44:41.columnist Gillian Bowditch, and we're also joined by the former
:44:42. > :44:48.political editor of the Herald, Murray Ritchie. Let's start with
:44:49. > :44:53.you, money. What was your big story of 2013? What resonated with you? It
:44:54. > :44:57.is the white paper. The huge document. When you get to my age,
:44:58. > :45:01.you can barely lift it up. It is enormous and there is so much
:45:02. > :45:05.reading in it. I naively thought that when it was brought out with
:45:06. > :45:10.great fanfare, there would be a jump in the polls for the yes campaign.
:45:11. > :45:15.There was a very small, tiny jump. When you think about it, it will
:45:16. > :45:19.take months to the dad thing. The debate will take many months for all
:45:20. > :45:24.the various points in that enormous document to sink into the public
:45:25. > :45:29.understanding. It will have to be long discussion about it. I would
:45:30. > :45:33.think the yes campaign will be looking for a little lift, but I
:45:34. > :45:38.think they were maybe expecting it to sin. I think it will come for
:45:39. > :45:40.them. Politically, it is probably the biggest expected thing this
:45:41. > :45:48.year. Didn't live up to expectations? -- did it live up to
:45:49. > :45:54.expectations? It surprised me. I expected a much more visionary
:45:55. > :45:57.document that would try and sell the whole case in words that people
:45:58. > :46:06.would immediately engage with in a direct way. Facing them with 600
:46:07. > :46:11.adored pages -- 600-odd pages of dense stuff... I would have thought
:46:12. > :46:19.the number who will sit down and make their way through it will be
:46:20. > :46:28.tiny. There was talk of getting Sir William McIlvanney to write a more
:46:29. > :46:33.nuanced, flourishing kind of prose. It is not like that, the bits I have
:46:34. > :46:38.read, anyway. It is the kind of stuff you expect from civil servants
:46:39. > :46:41.at the end of the day. I just wonder whether that a striking the right
:46:42. > :46:48.note for a campaign that is behind and has to get in front. Now,
:46:49. > :46:55.there's 9-10 months to do it. How'd you look at the way the independence
:46:56. > :47:02.debate has progressed? It as the long, occasionally coming to the
:47:03. > :47:05.boil, but no big peaks troughs. It hasn't been edifying. It has been
:47:06. > :47:11.difficult for the will to engage with it. The white paper was the
:47:12. > :47:19.clearly to answer a lot of questions that the Better Together campaign
:47:20. > :47:24.had been firing. It probably stemmed from that. It needed to show there
:47:25. > :47:29.was something weighty beer. It was a document by committee. One civil
:47:30. > :47:32.servant said she had seen four paragraphs before it went out.
:47:33. > :47:38.Everyone was able to see a tiny bit, but they didn't see it all. It could
:47:39. > :47:41.have done with a good edit. It needed something visionary and we
:47:42. > :47:45.did not have that. It was a weighty document. In terms of the
:47:46. > :47:51.independence campaign, the highlight was probably Nicolai giving a big --
:47:52. > :48:00.was probably Nicola Sturgeon giving a bashing to have the debate. Let's
:48:01. > :48:02.that is better in 2014. What do you make of the debate over the course
:48:03. > :48:15.of the year? Has it reached your expectations? Not really. There is
:48:16. > :48:18.an impasse. The interesting thing, and you might disagree, but I think
:48:19. > :48:27.one of the interesting things is where the Labour vote in Scotland
:48:28. > :48:32.goes. In our days on the Herald, for 30 years, we had an opinion poll
:48:33. > :48:37.which tracks Scottish public opinion for all that time every month. It
:48:38. > :48:41.was very valuable. It fell victim to cuts, unfortunately. One of the
:48:42. > :48:46.interesting things about that was that the Labour Party pointed out to
:48:47. > :48:53.me at the time, valid to their discomfort, that up to 45%, and
:48:54. > :48:58.certainly up to 30-40%, their voters were happy with independence. They
:48:59. > :49:00.did not campaign for that come to the SNP, still voted Labour, but
:49:01. > :49:07.they were intrigued by the thought of Scotland being independent. Where
:49:08. > :49:10.are those people now? The left wing of the Labour Party as it is now is
:49:11. > :49:16.in favour of independence, but they few nowadays. The rest of it is the
:49:17. > :49:25.Jim Murphy type of attitude, just have nothing to do with it. I think
:49:26. > :49:28.once the Labour vote, once we begin to understand that, there could be
:49:29. > :49:35.significant in that and we will see where it goes. The yes campaign
:49:36. > :49:38.wanted to come over. You pick up on that point, because the undecideds
:49:39. > :49:50.are going to be a major feature in 2014. The add-in to 12-17%. -- the
:49:51. > :49:55.air around 17%. It is shrinking. It is still a big gap between now and
:49:56. > :50:00.yes in the mainstream. In terms of what he was just saying, I think the
:50:01. > :50:07.most interesting bit was what we could call the radical left. Whether
:50:08. > :50:09.it is green politics or a kind of left redistributed politics which is
:50:10. > :50:14.out with the main parties altogether. They have been filling
:50:15. > :50:18.conference halls and having great beats but they are a tiny, tiny
:50:19. > :50:23.segment of overall opinion in the country. Although that is well be
:50:24. > :50:28.interesting, exciting stuff is happening, it will not affect the
:50:29. > :50:31.overall result in a country with a country where the Green candidate in
:50:32. > :50:33.two of the by-elections which you mentioned in your list of the
:50:34. > :50:41.highlights got half the vote of UKIP. Gillian, this has been a year
:50:42. > :50:44.where we have had so many debates about the referendum, but we have
:50:45. > :50:48.not actually had an election this year, which is unusual. Next year,
:50:49. > :50:55.we have the European one, 2015 as the general election. There is no
:50:56. > :50:59.posturing around election campaign, but we will have that for the
:51:00. > :51:03.European one in 2014. That's right. There is no shortage of elections
:51:04. > :51:08.now. We have a lot of different strategies of our democracy.
:51:09. > :51:12.Politicians calls come out in force for an election and will be the same
:51:13. > :51:15.without direct -- it will be the same for the referendum. It'll do
:51:16. > :51:21.not engage until after the Commonwealth Games next summer. I'm
:51:22. > :51:24.sure some of them are keeping their powder dry. It is a very long
:51:25. > :51:27.campaign and we have not had a referendum like this. Difficult to
:51:28. > :51:34.pace themselves. Once they see the finish line, they will start to
:51:35. > :51:39.galvanise. Was there anything in 2013 that took you by surprise? It
:51:40. > :51:42.is quite interesting when you think back of Eric Joyce getting into a
:51:43. > :51:46.fight in the House of Commons, being deselected, the Falkirk and Labour
:51:47. > :51:54.selection row, that ended up in the huge Grangemouth dispute. That was
:51:55. > :51:58.quite surprising thing this year. It was horrible, actually. It was a
:51:59. > :52:05.nationally thing -- it was a nasty thing. It was a lesson in how trade
:52:06. > :52:10.unions should not behave. It does not work any more. The employer they
:52:11. > :52:12.were dealing with is a hard man with a lot of experience in getting rid
:52:13. > :52:15.of people. They picked the wrong battle ground and the wrong type of
:52:16. > :52:20.fight. But he came out of it with something. In fairness, they were
:52:21. > :52:24.provoked by the management in Grangemouth. As far as the Falkirk
:52:25. > :52:27.thing is concerned, you know, we still do not know what happened
:52:28. > :52:33.there. We have not been given a full account of all the mischief that
:52:34. > :52:37.went on the behind-the-scenes. We do not know what happened. That stinks
:52:38. > :52:41.of cover-up. That can be very dangerous for a party defending a
:52:42. > :52:47.seat like that will stop it will be very difficult for Labour to defend
:52:48. > :52:53.it, but we will see. What you make of the Grangemouth story? It really
:52:54. > :52:58.shook Scotland. It certainly took me back. In my advanced years, having
:52:59. > :53:01.spent more years than I care to say in front of factory gates as
:53:02. > :53:04.factories were shut down across Scotland, I was dragged by the BBC
:53:05. > :53:11.One morning at around seven o'clock on a morning to a rather draughty
:53:12. > :53:16.van sitting outside the gates. Suddenly, all hell broke loose
:53:17. > :53:22.because Len McCluskey arrived and there was a good old-fashioned media
:53:23. > :53:25.scrum as he went into the gates. I ended up doing about six interviews
:53:26. > :53:32.in the space of two days, which was ridiculous. It was a reminder of
:53:33. > :53:38.these big... You know, how to be placed so much of a sense of who we
:53:39. > :53:43.are is a country in the old industries? The big petrochemical
:53:44. > :53:49.plants or indeed the row generation of Royal navy frigates, the Clyde
:53:50. > :53:54.Portsmouth someone else. We invest so much in those but so much is
:53:55. > :54:03.gone. The bits that have left -- bits have been left have struggled.
:54:04. > :54:06.There was someone on saying that this country is so expensive in
:54:07. > :54:08.energy terms that they cannot run stuff like this in this country. The
:54:09. > :54:13.places to go and America the Far East. Having said that, he is
:54:14. > :54:17.bringing gas into Grangemouth and giving it a new kind of future doing
:54:18. > :54:24.that. It is complicated, difficult stuff, but money is right. The
:54:25. > :54:30.unions have not stayed up with the pace and played the game. And they
:54:31. > :54:34.have got caught out. Gillian, looking back there, two major
:54:35. > :54:40.characters of the 20th century, Margaret Thatcher and Nelson Mandela
:54:41. > :54:42.passed away in 2013. Yes, two big political figures who dominated
:54:43. > :54:49.politics in the 1980s and early 1990s. Difficult to compare the two.
:54:50. > :54:52.Nelson Mandela was an international statesman and we have just seen his
:54:53. > :54:58.funeral and the kind of acclaim he got. Margaret Thatcher, more mixed
:54:59. > :55:02.emotions, I think, certainly in Scotland, all for her passing. It
:55:03. > :55:09.was an opportunity for people to reassess some of the decisions she
:55:10. > :55:15.made and to look at, you know, possibly how blame has been unfairly
:55:16. > :55:18.apportioned the in some circumstances and to have a little
:55:19. > :55:25.bit more distance and think about our history in a more rational way.
:55:26. > :55:32.It was a real time for looking at legacies, wasn't it? I would like to
:55:33. > :55:40.go to Robben Island. I try to go when he was still there. They would
:55:41. > :55:43.not let me see him. I went to the liberal anti-apartheid campaigner,
:55:44. > :55:50.who was a great woman who was alleged to see him. She said the
:55:51. > :55:53.thing that struck about Mandela was his determination not to give in to
:55:54. > :55:57.him. They were offering allsorts of deals to him and saying that if you
:55:58. > :56:02.concede or compromise on this, we will let you out. He knew that the
:56:03. > :56:06.way he was carrying on with his lack of negotiations was making the
:56:07. > :56:11.apartheid Government in South Africa his prisoner. He was a phenomenal
:56:12. > :56:18.politician. A really remarkable man. That was hard abiding memory of
:56:19. > :56:25.him, just before he was released. He knew he was winning. You want to
:56:26. > :56:32.comment on that? I was struck by, in terms of funerals, because you have
:56:33. > :56:36.posed Thatcher and Mandela. Thatcher's funeral was a very sombre
:56:37. > :56:43.and state like affair. I watched bits at home. The Mandela funeral,
:56:44. > :56:52.and you have that widely distributed picture of Obama and Cameron almost
:56:53. > :56:55.as if it was a celebrity event. The tone and nature of each of the
:56:56. > :57:01.farewells was entirely different, it even at the level of heads of state,
:57:02. > :57:10.major powers. It is extraordinary. We're almost out of time. A funny
:57:11. > :57:13.moment of 2013? It was very sad, looking at the documentary. I'm
:57:14. > :57:19.Professor Higgs in the Nobel Prize. A great story emanating from
:57:20. > :57:24.Scotland and a man who had an idea with simple national --
:57:25. > :57:31.international obligations. That was a great story for me. Your best
:57:32. > :57:37.moment for 2013? I don't have another best moment, I don't think.
:57:38. > :57:48.Andy Murray for. He gave me an attack, but I survived. Thank you
:57:49. > :57:52.for joining us. That is all for most today and for 2013, as MSPs go off
:57:53. > :57:56.on holiday tomorrow. We'll be back on air in the new year for a very
:57:57. > :57:57.busy 2014. Until then, merry Christmas and enjoy the festive
:57:58. > :58:04.season. Goodbye.