:00:25. > :00:29.Welcome to Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme: The UK Treasury
:00:30. > :00:33.confirms that the Scottish Government is to be given the power
:00:34. > :00:38.to issue its own bonds to raise finance on the international
:00:39. > :00:40.markets. Unemployment has fallen in Scotland
:00:41. > :00:46.again while employment has increased.
:00:47. > :00:51.And a last-ditch effort at Holyrood to prevent what critics say is an
:00:52. > :00:55.attempt to force a so-called State Guardian on every child.
:00:56. > :01:02.Hello. The economy is taking centre stage again. Unemployment figures
:01:03. > :01:06.show another fall. The chief secretary to the Treasury has been
:01:07. > :01:16.in Edinburgh announcing that the Scottish Parliament will have the
:01:17. > :01:20.power of bonds. If Scotland refused to pay its share of the debt and
:01:21. > :01:26.independence, he warned there could be an extra ?5,000 a year extra on
:01:27. > :01:32.home mortgage payments. In the event of a default, refusal to accept
:01:33. > :01:36.debt, one bank has done the only detailed estimate out there, I
:01:37. > :01:44.think. They have suggested that under those circumstances there
:01:45. > :01:50.would be approved euros a premium of five basis points under that default
:01:51. > :01:56.scenario. -- there would be a premium. And moving from bond rates
:01:57. > :02:02.to mortgage rates that would be an estimated cost of ?5,200 on the
:02:03. > :02:08.average mortgage in Scotland. So you see that none of these things are
:02:09. > :02:15.certain. But you can see the range of possible financial risks that
:02:16. > :02:21.come with borrowing under independence. But the Scottish
:02:22. > :02:24.finance secretary hit back, saying it was not possible legally for an
:02:25. > :02:28.independent Scotland to default on its debt as it belonged to the UK.
:02:29. > :02:34.If anything, John Swinney argued, it was the rest of the UK facing
:02:35. > :02:40.additional costs in liabilities of up to ?130 billion, if it did not
:02:41. > :02:45.enter into a currency union. In the debate that has been ensuing over
:02:46. > :02:48.the last few days, if we follow to the logical conclusion the position
:02:49. > :02:54.that the United Kingdom Government has adopted by arguing for
:02:55. > :02:58.successive state status, and the point that the Deputy First Minister
:02:59. > :03:01.has made has been reinforced very powerfully this week by Professor
:03:02. > :03:06.Christian Bale from the University of Edinburgh, who I will quote.
:03:07. > :03:10.Legally under international law, the position is clear. If the remainder
:03:11. > :03:14.of the UK keeps the name and status of the UK under international law,
:03:15. > :03:19.it keeps its liabilities for the debt. The UK took out the debt and
:03:20. > :03:23.legally it owes the money. Scotland cannot therefore default. What the
:03:24. > :03:29.UK Government is walking into is the liability that would be increased by
:03:30. > :03:36.up to ?130 billion, translating into an annual debt servicing cost of up
:03:37. > :03:38.to ?4.5 billion. That is in my estimation a significant factor that
:03:39. > :03:44.the United Kingdom Government would have to bear in mind in deciding
:03:45. > :03:50.which stands to take in relation to the question of a currency union. I
:03:51. > :03:58.am joined by Hamish McDonald. Welcome to the programme. Let's have
:03:59. > :04:01.a quick look at the bonds, fairly dry subject. Essentially giving the
:04:02. > :04:06.Scottish Government more powers to borrow. Yes. We have to look at this
:04:07. > :04:09.in the context of the Scottish Government never being able to
:04:10. > :04:13.borrow money on the international monetary markets, which has been a
:04:14. > :04:17.bugbear for Holyrood. Alex Salmond has wanted that power for some
:04:18. > :04:21.time. UK Government said that he can do it. It is important. It appears
:04:22. > :04:26.to be technical but it is a symbolic change. It will allow the Scottish
:04:27. > :04:34.Government to borrow an international money markets as the
:04:35. > :04:38.Scottish Government. So it does not change what they can borrow but it
:04:39. > :04:42.changes the way they can do it, which is symbolically important.
:04:43. > :04:47.Danny Alexander was here in Scotland to talk about the bonds but it has
:04:48. > :04:54.become a bit of a live round about what Scotland's finances might be
:04:55. > :05:02.under independence. He was talking about ?5,200 extra for Scottish
:05:03. > :05:06.mortgage payers. What are those figures telling us? I think that
:05:07. > :05:10.Danny Alexander came up here with a point to make. He knew the story
:05:11. > :05:17.would not be the dry story about bonds if he could make it, -- if he
:05:18. > :05:20.could help it, so he has come up with that headline figure. If an
:05:21. > :05:24.independent Scotland defaults on the liabilities it would get from the UK
:05:25. > :05:27.Government, then that would be passed on down the line to
:05:28. > :05:30.homeowners in terms of increased mortgage costs. He is basically
:05:31. > :05:33.saying that Scotland as a whole would find it much more difficult to
:05:34. > :05:37.borrow money on the money markets and would have to pay higher
:05:38. > :05:47.interest rates, which would be passed on to mortgage holders,
:05:48. > :05:49.giving the average mortgage holder ?5,000 extra to find every year.
:05:50. > :05:52.That is a great headline figure and that is where the argument now is.
:05:53. > :05:54.It is something that the SNP Government of course object to. John
:05:55. > :05:58.Swinney hit back. He said that Scotland would not be defaulting on
:05:59. > :06:03.its debt because it is not Scotland's debt to default on. It is
:06:04. > :06:07.the UK's debt. Now we are getting into the realms of international
:06:08. > :06:11.law. If you break up a country and you have a successor state that
:06:12. > :06:16.stays the same and part of that that breaks away, you then have to get
:06:17. > :06:36.into the realms of which part of that state takes on which bits. John
:06:37. > :06:38.Swinney's argument is that if the UK wants to beat that successor state,
:06:39. > :06:40.it takes on all those liabilities and as such Scotland does not
:06:41. > :06:43.default on anything. If Scotland does not default, it has nothing to
:06:44. > :06:45.pay and no penalties in terms of increased interest rates. Let's move
:06:46. > :06:48.on to the economy in general. There has been some better news. Danny
:06:49. > :06:50.Alexander's boss is George Osborne, the Chancellor, and they will be
:06:51. > :06:54.pleased to see jobless numbers falling by 3000. As will John
:06:55. > :06:59.Swinney. We are seeing these figures every Wednesday in every month, and
:07:00. > :07:05.a good fall every month. Very much so. If you go back a few years, we
:07:06. > :07:08.had very poor figures, unemployment rising and employment going down.
:07:09. > :07:19.Both the Scottish Government and the UK Government were blaming the other
:07:20. > :07:22.for what was going wrong. Now you have the reverse, good news, and
:07:23. > :07:24.each Government is trying to claim the credit. We will be back with you
:07:25. > :07:27.later. Thank you. The Children and Young People Bill
:07:28. > :07:31.is reaching the final stage at Holyrood and we will go to the
:07:32. > :07:35.chamber live to listen to that debate later. Glen Campbell spoke to
:07:36. > :07:40.MSPs about the issue. They are trying to derail plans for a
:07:41. > :07:44.so-called guardian for every Scottish child. This is a
:07:45. > :07:49.wide-ranging bill that perhaps helps to explain why MSPs are going to be
:07:50. > :07:55.talking about it up until eight tonight when they take the final
:07:56. > :07:59.vote. It extends the access to free childcare in Scotland for three and
:08:00. > :08:03.four -year-olds and vulnerable two-year-olds. It brings in free
:08:04. > :08:07.school meals for the earliest years of primary school. It will also mean
:08:08. > :08:12.that children in care can have access to care right up until the
:08:13. > :08:18.age of 21. One of the more controversial aspects of the
:08:19. > :08:23.legislation is that it will create a named Guardian system. A single,
:08:24. > :08:27.named individual, looking out for each and every child in the country.
:08:28. > :08:31.That is controversial and we will come to it in more detail in a
:08:32. > :08:34.moment. Let's discuss the bill more generally with a panel of
:08:35. > :08:39.politicians on the four main political parties. Stewart Maxwell,
:08:40. > :08:43.this package, what is it intended to do? The bottom line is that we are
:08:44. > :08:47.trying to create a system where in Scotland we have children who have
:08:48. > :08:54.the opportunity to grow up into confident adults so that Scotland is
:08:55. > :08:57.the best place in the world for children to grow up and provide
:08:58. > :08:59.support for families to make sure there is a support mechanism in
:09:00. > :09:02.place or families even in the most difficult circumstances that they
:09:03. > :09:06.may find themselves in. Expanding childcare so that mothers can go
:09:07. > :09:11.back to work if they wish. Basically making a rounded situation where
:09:12. > :09:14.their rights for children, responsibilities for families, but
:09:15. > :09:18.also at the bottom line putting children and families at the heart
:09:19. > :09:24.of what we do. By and large, Labour is on site. Where do you have
:09:25. > :09:29.problems? We will be voting for this tonight. We have tried to make it
:09:30. > :09:34.better around areas including childcare and care leavers. We have
:09:35. > :09:37.had some success including delivering around two-year-olds. The
:09:38. > :09:41.criticism is that the bill does not go far enough. It is a missed
:09:42. > :09:48.opportunity and it misses out on ambition. There is nothing about out
:09:49. > :09:51.of school care for kids. Families need childcare that reflects the
:09:52. > :09:56.realities of their lives and many parents will wonder what this does
:09:57. > :10:01.for them. In terms of extending childcare as far as you might like,
:10:02. > :10:06.among the Liberal Democrats, the SNP need the powers of independence to
:10:07. > :10:10.go that far. This bill shows that we can do an awful lot with the powers
:10:11. > :10:14.that we already have. I really welcome this bill and the expansion
:10:15. > :10:27.of childcare. We are catching up with the rest of the United Kingdom
:10:28. > :10:29.for two-year-olds and four-year-olds as well. As a liberal, I am
:10:30. > :10:32.enthusiastic about young children getting a great education from very
:10:33. > :10:35.early years to get the best out of life. Catching up on the rest of the
:10:36. > :10:40.UK, and not going as far as you could with the powers and resources
:10:41. > :10:46.that you do have access to. That is not what directly guys this bill is
:10:47. > :10:55.doing. We are looking at expanding childcare. Parents can then get the
:10:56. > :10:59.childcare they need. We are also expanding it up to 27% of all
:11:00. > :11:03.two-year-olds which is a major change for people in Scotland and I
:11:04. > :11:11.think it should be welcomed. Let's deal with the issue of the named
:11:12. > :11:17.guardian. You are concerned about this proposal, Liz Smith. I do not
:11:18. > :11:22.accept that all youngsters want or need a named person. Secondly, by
:11:23. > :11:27.making its universal, we are diluting resources away from our
:11:28. > :11:31.most vulnerable children. That is the part of the bill that we have
:11:32. > :11:36.reservations about. We do support other aspects of the bill, from the
:11:37. > :11:40.point of view of childcare improvements and changes to school
:11:41. > :11:43.closures and kinship carers and care leavers. That is good news in this
:11:44. > :11:50.bill but I'm asking the Government to have a major rethink when it
:11:51. > :11:55.comes to the named person. Could this have unintended consequences,
:11:56. > :11:59.not least in terms of the financial implications of this system? We took
:12:00. > :12:03.a cautious approach to this. We had to be convinced at the beginning
:12:04. > :12:08.that it was the right thing to do. From our experience in the Highland
:12:09. > :12:12.region, they found it was a pragmatic step to take, having a
:12:13. > :12:19.person named as responsible within the state system, and it worked well
:12:20. > :12:23.and made it much more simple. It needs to be financed properly. We
:12:24. > :12:32.were courses at the beginning and now we are convinced. Isn't it worth
:12:33. > :12:44.trying it if it protects vulnerable children that have fallen between
:12:45. > :12:50.two stalls. -- two stools? I agree that we need better integration of
:12:51. > :12:54.the Government proposals. That is why they have been successful. But I
:12:55. > :12:59.certainly don't accept that we need a named person for every child.
:13:00. > :13:03.Could this be open to legal challenge? You can have legal
:13:04. > :13:07.opinions for and against many situations. The problem here is the
:13:08. > :13:11.Scottish Government's failure to make the case for its own policy. We
:13:12. > :13:16.don't have the minister here with us. There is a lot of misconception
:13:17. > :13:20.and misunderstanding about what the named person means. Campbell could
:13:21. > :13:24.have helped herself by coming out earlier to define that. This is
:13:25. > :13:27.interfering in family life. I don't believe that is the case but it is
:13:28. > :13:30.up to the Scottish Government to argue why this is a good thing and
:13:31. > :13:39.they have made life hard for themselves by not doing so. Why
:13:40. > :13:43.don't we -- do we need a named individual? Isn't it the job of
:13:44. > :13:48.parents? Of course but some parents need additional support. In some
:13:49. > :13:53.cases there are vulnerable families where the state has to intervene and
:13:54. > :13:57.asked to help. Then children have to be protected or they may
:13:58. > :14:02.unfortunately be abused. So we need support in place. The reason it have
:14:03. > :14:05.to be universal, of course, if we take this analogy, if you have an
:14:06. > :14:09.insurance policy on your house it is not because you expect something
:14:10. > :14:13.terrible but just in case. It will be there when it is needed as
:14:14. > :14:17.additional support, for when children are in vulnerable
:14:18. > :14:24.situations. Vast majority of families will never come across this
:14:25. > :14:28.person. That says it all. We have had this from several SNP members at
:14:29. > :14:32.various debates that it is not necessary. So why are we having it
:14:33. > :14:37.for a universal system when we could be devoting our scarce resources
:14:38. > :14:42.towards vulnerable children? If you are not using the system, no
:14:43. > :14:47.resources are required. This Parliament unanimously rubbished it.
:14:48. > :14:54.That is not true. Of course they have got concerns. They were quite
:14:55. > :14:57.right to express those concerns about their minimum amount required
:14:58. > :15:03.to make sure individuals were properly trained. The minister has
:15:04. > :15:12.dealt with that. I am confident that we are now in the right place. OK,
:15:13. > :15:15.but briefly, why are carers demonstrating outside the
:15:16. > :15:19.Parliament? They are angry and they have every right to be because SNP
:15:20. > :15:25.Government has let them down. They were given money to fix the postcode
:15:26. > :15:29.lottery in Scotland for carers. They had the chance to fix it and they
:15:30. > :15:32.didn't. These people have tremendous value in society and I don't know
:15:33. > :15:35.why the Scottish Government wouldn't make sure everyone in Scotland has
:15:36. > :15:49.the same amount of money to reflect the advantages of them.
:15:50. > :16:01.A postcode lottery? No, additional support and a review going on. Now,
:16:02. > :16:05.parents get more support than they ever did under the previous
:16:06. > :16:09.administration. Let us go live to the chamber at
:16:10. > :16:17.Holyrood to hear some of that debate.
:16:18. > :16:38.I think we are just... Amendment 128. Yes, 56. No, 55. The amendment
:16:39. > :16:51.is not agreed. Move or not move? Not move. That is the presiding officer
:16:52. > :16:57.that they're just taking some of the amendments to the bill. I am still
:16:58. > :17:12.joined here by a Hamish Macdonell. No, we will hear to the Minister.
:17:13. > :17:16.consistent with the legislation. The text in part three of the bill was
:17:17. > :17:19.drafted on the basis that local authority and health board
:17:20. > :17:27.boundaries are currently not aligned. To assure they would cover
:17:28. > :17:33.each local authority area, they were required to join each area. However,
:17:34. > :17:40.in the light of the recent decision to bring forward left -- secondary
:17:41. > :17:45.legislation, amendments are now required to part three of the bill.
:17:46. > :17:50.The National Health Service variation of areas health board will
:17:51. > :17:56.make the changes with effect from the 1st of April. Amendment 50 fine
:17:57. > :18:05.- defined amends the definition of relevant health board to reflect the
:18:06. > :18:13.changes associated. References in part three... That is the effect of
:18:14. > :18:19.amendments 56 to 58. I asked the chamber supports the amendments in
:18:20. > :18:28.my name. Many thanks. The question is that Amendment 55 B agreed to.
:18:29. > :18:36.Are we agreed? We are. Move or not move? Move. The question is that the
:18:37. > :18:41.amendment be agreed. Are we agreed? We are not so there will therefore
:18:42. > :18:45.be a division. Please cast your -- cast your votes now.
:18:46. > :18:53.They are voting on one of the amendments. I'm joined here by the
:18:54. > :18:57.-- in the studio by Hamish Macdonell, the political
:18:58. > :19:03.commentator. Let us look at some of the issues we were looking at. The
:19:04. > :19:08.so-called named Guardian that each child in Scotland will have. It is a
:19:09. > :19:14.fairly controversial measure and the Conservatives are picking up on
:19:15. > :19:17.this, aren't they? They are because of the so-called nanny state nanny.
:19:18. > :19:23.Every young individual would have someone named to look after them.
:19:24. > :19:28.There is no one around who thinks that is not a good thing for
:19:29. > :19:31.vulnerable children, but the point the Conservatives are making, and I
:19:32. > :19:37.think they have a point here, is that it is a bit like a sledgehammer
:19:38. > :19:40.and a nut. Why is every single individual going to get a named
:19:41. > :19:48.person to look after them when the people you want targeted are small.
:19:49. > :19:53.Why don't the resources, if they are there to be spent, be focused on
:19:54. > :19:57.those who are really most vulnerable rather than having a huge universal
:19:58. > :20:02.system which cuts across the job that parents feel they should be
:20:03. > :20:09.doing? Well, let us return to the chamber and see some of the debate
:20:10. > :20:17.now. Minister to move. Moved. Thank you.
:20:18. > :20:28.The question is that the Amendment 56 B agreed. Are we agreed? Yes. We
:20:29. > :20:40.are. Move or not move the next Amendment? Move. Thank you.
:20:41. > :20:48.Amendment 57 in the name of the Minister. Minister? Moved. Thank
:20:49. > :20:55.you. The question is that Amendment 57 B agreed. Are we agreed? Yes.
:20:56. > :20:59.Thank you. He is just marshalling some of the
:21:00. > :21:06.amendments. One more point, Hamish, to pick up on. The childcare issue
:21:07. > :21:10.we were speaking about. It is promising extra childcare provision
:21:11. > :21:14.in the bill, but it was interesting to hear what Willie Rennie was
:21:15. > :21:18.saying with it being such an important issue in the referendum
:21:19. > :21:24.debate so far. He was saying we could do a lot more. But childcare
:21:25. > :21:28.is a fundamental provision and a fundamental part of the bill? As
:21:29. > :21:33.with everything in Scottish politics, you haven't got to look
:21:34. > :21:36.far before you come to the independence debate. Back in
:21:37. > :21:41.November, there was a big part of the White Paper where Alex Salmond
:21:42. > :21:46.and Nicola Sturgeon said that if independents come -- comes, there
:21:47. > :21:52.will be a big change in childcare. The opposition said, why not do it
:21:53. > :21:56.now? This is the sort of bill which would allow them to bring forward
:21:57. > :22:01.that revolution in childcare which they promised under independence. So
:22:02. > :22:05.there is an independent side to this and the Scottish Government could go
:22:06. > :22:09.further. They argue they haven't got the money or resources to do so but
:22:10. > :22:12.independents, as usual, underlies pretty much everything.
:22:13. > :22:16.Benefit applicants with long-term health conditions have been
:22:17. > :22:19.complaining to MSPs about the problems they face when trying to
:22:20. > :22:22.qualify for welfare payments. One said the process made her feel like
:22:23. > :22:31.a "scrounger". They were speaking to the Welfare Reform Committee.
:22:32. > :22:35.I worked for the Department for Work and Pensions until 2007 when it
:22:36. > :22:39.became impossible for me to continue. My health had become too
:22:40. > :22:44.bad and I had to take long-term sick leave. In 2012I received forms to
:22:45. > :22:48.change in capacity barely forms to change incapacity benefit to aim --
:22:49. > :22:53.unemployment support allowance. Filling in the forms was quite
:22:54. > :22:57.difficult. I struggled even with my working background and it must be
:22:58. > :23:01.even more horrendous for people with little experience of the system. The
:23:02. > :23:06.forms are only suitable for illnesses which are straightforward
:23:07. > :23:13.and consistent. They are not designed to deal with fluctuating
:23:14. > :23:17.conditions such as multiple sclerosis which I suffer from. Being
:23:18. > :23:20.made to feel like a stranger by having to virtually begged for
:23:21. > :23:25.benefits from a system I paid into for many years is horrid. I
:23:26. > :23:31.certainly never chose to have health problems but the way people are
:23:32. > :23:35.dealt with now, you have to justify being ill. Service users are angry
:23:36. > :23:41.they are subjected to distressing and stressful process when they are
:23:42. > :23:47.cleanly -- clearly unfit to work. The process causes deterioration in
:23:48. > :23:57.mental health. I am a polio survivor and I am 54. Unfortunately, I know
:23:58. > :24:01.suffer from... Sorry. Suffering the effects of another syndrome. While
:24:02. > :24:07.you're working you were thinking that you paid into the system. Just
:24:08. > :24:11.in case anything did happen and the safety net would be there. What you
:24:12. > :24:20.think of the situation now, having paid into a system and finding it is
:24:21. > :24:32.not there for you at the moment? Angry. It reflects back again. The
:24:33. > :24:37.Department for Work and Pensions was happy to go along with the diagnosis
:24:38. > :24:43.until my contributions ran out. Then, all of a sudden, it is, let us
:24:44. > :24:50.get this one back to work now. It felt like that was the attitude. I
:24:51. > :24:56.feel really let down. I felt years working for the DWP and now I need
:24:57. > :25:00.them, I am having to fight for everything. I feel let down and I
:25:01. > :25:05.feel like they are treating me like a stranger. I promise I didn't
:25:06. > :25:12.choose to have all these health conditions, but I feel like they
:25:13. > :25:17.think I did. I am seeing more people now, as the
:25:18. > :25:24.employment situation tightens, they are the ones they seem to get rid of
:25:25. > :25:29.first, the Deadwood, as they might be described. The ones who are now
:25:30. > :25:35.suddenly cast addressed. Maybe one day they were talking about
:25:36. > :25:42.following the media 's reputations -- representations of these
:25:43. > :25:48."scroungers" than they are now finding themselves been treated in
:25:49. > :25:51.that way. On top of the problems they have withheld, the stigma of
:25:52. > :25:58.losing your job and thrown into this causes huge problems. I don't know
:25:59. > :26:03.if there is any follow-up done, but I know there have been several
:26:04. > :26:10.deaths of people who have committed suicide or who have just given up,
:26:11. > :26:14.overdosed - maybe not deliberately dashed but trying to escape stigma
:26:15. > :26:18.and the hardship they are going through. I would love to see if
:26:19. > :26:24.anyone was actually following that up to see how many people have died
:26:25. > :26:27.following, specifically following their experience of the benefit
:26:28. > :26:34.system. That was some of the welfare reform
:26:35. > :26:38.committee yesterday. I am still joined by Hamish Macdonell. Hamish,
:26:39. > :26:45.we were watching the committee there and we heard the permit -- the
:26:46. > :26:49.people speak. Welfare reform has been a very controversial aspect of
:26:50. > :26:55.the UK coalition governments work over the past four years, hasn't it?
:26:56. > :26:59.It has perhaps been the one issue which has given the biggest fault
:27:00. > :27:03.line there is between the Scottish Government and the UK Government and
:27:04. > :27:07.pretty much between Scottish political opinion and Westminster.
:27:08. > :27:12.Labour and the Lib Dems are pretty much on board with the SNP in
:27:13. > :27:16.opposition to the bedroom detached -- tax and the austerity measures
:27:17. > :27:21.which have really squeezed the welfare budget. That has led to a
:27:22. > :27:23.big divide between Scotland and England and the respective
:27:24. > :27:29.governments and I cannot see that changing.
:27:30. > :27:32.We are just hearing about the Children and Young People's Bill.
:27:33. > :27:36.They are just voting on some of those amendments. We will bring some
:27:37. > :27:41.of the debate. In some ways, when you look at the so-called bedroom
:27:42. > :27:45.tax, is there some way that the UK Government could have tried to
:27:46. > :27:51.introduce these reforms without attracting that kind of opprobrium
:27:52. > :27:56.from their opponents? It is possible, but you get the
:27:57. > :27:59.suspicion it was politically driven. As far as the conservative end of
:28:00. > :28:08.the UK Government was concerned, they wanted to be seen to be doing
:28:09. > :28:13.something. That is towards what some people describe as, scroungers. If
:28:14. > :28:17.they wanted the political edge, there was nothing else they could
:28:18. > :28:23.have done but having the edge means you get political opposition which
:28:24. > :28:27.is what they have run into. MSPs been voting on the amendments
:28:28. > :28:34.so let us get back into the chamber and try to hear some of the debate.
:28:35. > :28:46.I now call amendment 145. Not move. Thank you. Amendment 60 in the name
:28:47. > :28:57.of the Minister. Thank you. The question is Amendment 60 be greeted?
:28:58. > :29:08.Yes. We are. Amendment 146. Not moved. Thank you. Amendment 147. Not
:29:09. > :29:17.moved. Thank you. Amendment 61 in the name of the Minister. Moved. I
:29:18. > :29:30.we agree to Amendment 61? We are. Thank you. Amendment 148. Not moved.
:29:31. > :29:36.Amendment 149. Moved not? Not moved. Thank you. Amendment 60 two, 63 and
:29:37. > :29:44.64. In the name of the Minister and previously debated. En bloc, please.
:29:45. > :29:52.Moved on bloc. Does any member object? As no one does, the question
:29:53. > :30:08.is that amendments 62 to 64 are agreed. Yes. Thank you. Amendment
:30:09. > :30:20.151. Move or not? Not move. Thank you. Amendment 152. Moved or not?
:30:21. > :30:31.Not moved. Amendment 153? Not moved. 154? Not moved. 155?
:30:32. > :30:36.Not moved. They are still looking at some of the amendments there. We are
:30:37. > :30:39.trying to bring you some of that debate but it is the rather
:30:40. > :30:40.procedural stuff at the moment on the amendments. We will try to see
:30:41. > :30:55.if we can bring you that later. Westminster is in recess, so no
:30:56. > :30:59.PMQs, but our correspondent is with two guests to discuss how the
:31:00. > :31:05.independence debate has played out over the last week. Thank you. This
:31:06. > :31:09.place behind me is emptier than usual because MPs and peers are way
:31:10. > :31:13.that I can assure you that Her Majesty's press is still
:31:14. > :31:20.representing itself at Westminster, manfully manning the posts. Or
:31:21. > :31:26.perhaps I should say womanly. Let me explain. Joining me from the Herald
:31:27. > :31:32.newspaper, Kate Devlin. We operate down here at Westminster. We think
:31:33. > :31:36.there is a feeling among our colleagues that do not always deal
:31:37. > :31:40.with Scotland, that Scotland has suddenly become very interesting. It
:31:41. > :31:45.is suddenly on everybody's radar and there are a couple of reasons for
:31:46. > :31:49.it. Number 10 and the Treasury have stepped up their campaign against
:31:50. > :31:52.Scottish independence in the last couple of weeks. Interestingly, one
:31:53. > :31:56.of the reasons for that is actually to do with the new governor of the
:31:57. > :32:00.Bank of England, Mark Carney. I understand that they had to wait
:32:01. > :32:04.until he was in the job for long enough to do an analysis about
:32:05. > :32:09.currency, so they could come up with what they said last week. Is
:32:10. > :32:16.intervention was very important. Last week, something that most
:32:17. > :32:20.people did not expect to come in the way. The Chancellor saying to
:32:21. > :32:23.Scotland, if you vote for independence, you lose the pound.
:32:24. > :32:27.And lop and behold Ed Balls, who does not even agree with the
:32:28. > :32:34.Chancellor on the time of day, and Danny Alexander coming out, both
:32:35. > :32:42.saying the same thing. This shows how much this is a cross-party
:32:43. > :32:47.attack. The parties have realised that this is high risk and there can
:32:48. > :32:53.be a backlash. I understand that number ten are preparing for the
:32:54. > :32:57.backlash. They understand that there might be a bit of an increase for
:32:58. > :33:01.the yes campaign in opinion polls that we see this weekend. They are
:33:02. > :33:04.prepared for that and they say it is fine. The messages of an increase
:33:05. > :33:06.for the yes campaign in opinion polls that we see this weekend. They
:33:07. > :33:13.are prepared for that and they say it is fine. The message is they
:33:14. > :33:17.think those messages will take some time to get through to people and in
:33:18. > :33:21.a few weeks time they will see benefits in the opinion polls. The
:33:22. > :33:27.Scottish Government equally resolute saying it is our pound as well. If
:33:28. > :33:31.we want to use it, we will. Can you see wriggle room for either side?
:33:32. > :33:36.The Scottish Government seems to be opening up a number of different
:33:37. > :33:41.flanks on this. Yes, they are saying there is no plan B, but they are
:33:42. > :33:45.suggesting that the Council of economic advisers goes back to look
:33:46. > :33:49.at things. It seems that they want their message of reassurance that
:33:50. > :33:53.they will be able to get through to Scottish voters in some way. On
:33:54. > :34:00.another flank, Nicola Sturgeon gave a speech last week. Alex Salmond
:34:01. > :34:03.will be giving a speech in London in a couple of weeks. There seems to be
:34:04. > :34:09.an effort to appeal to UK public opinion, in some ways to save
:34:10. > :34:16.perhaps, why are your politicians being so mean and bullying Scotland?
:34:17. > :34:21.-- to say. The one thing politicians listen to as public opinion. Nicola
:34:22. > :34:28.Sturgeon and Alex Salmond both said that if you say we cannot be part of
:34:29. > :34:33.a currency union, we will go ahead and meet the debts that we might
:34:34. > :34:39.have. In terms of financial markets, that is all a risky strategy. It is
:34:40. > :34:42.quite risky. One thing that Number 10 on some of the prounion
:34:43. > :34:54.campaigners would quite like to see is what the market reaction to this
:34:55. > :34:59.is. If MSPs come out and say it will affect their ratings that an
:35:00. > :35:04.independent Scotland will get... Whether that happens or not remains
:35:05. > :35:09.to be seen. And another thing is banks starting to come out and being
:35:10. > :35:13.a bit more open about what they see their future as in an independent
:35:14. > :35:17.Scotland. They have traditionally been reluctant about that so whether
:35:18. > :35:21.they do so remains to be seen. UK Treasury has said to the Scottish
:35:22. > :35:24.Government, yes, you can go ahead in the future to pursue your own bonds
:35:25. > :35:30.to raise money on international markets, but we think it will cost
:35:31. > :35:33.you more in interest rates. Yes. That is something that the Scottish
:35:34. > :35:38.Government insists quite the opposite on. They think they can get
:35:39. > :35:43.a cheaper rate. It is a bit more of a squeeze, basically. A continuing
:35:44. > :35:46.ratcheting up of this issue. In some ways it is one way to keep the
:35:47. > :35:52.currency and economy issues in the news and in the minds of voters.
:35:53. > :35:57.Kate Devlin, thank you for joining us this afternoon. The MPs and the
:35:58. > :36:04.peers may be a way, Andrew, but all things Scottish, the currency,
:36:05. > :36:07.borrowing, and the whole situation about whether an independent
:36:08. > :36:10.Scotland can get into the EU or not, it is all very much exercising the
:36:11. > :36:17.politicians at Westminster and will do so, I think it is fair to say, up
:36:18. > :36:23.until referendum day. Thank you. Nicola Sturgeon has said it would be
:36:24. > :36:26.an absolute affront to democracy for Scotland to be denied independent
:36:27. > :36:28.membership of the European Union if there is a yes vote in the
:36:29. > :36:30.referendum. She was responding yesterday to the
:36:31. > :36:35.referendum. She was responding yesterday to a topical question
:36:36. > :36:39.raised at Holyrood on the recent comments about an independent
:36:40. > :36:43.Scotland's EU member ship. The decision on Scottish independence is
:36:44. > :36:46.for the Scottish people on the decision about continuing membership
:36:47. > :36:49.of the European Union will be for the member states. These are not
:36:50. > :36:54.decisions for the European Commission. Of course no member
:36:55. > :36:58.state has said that it would seek to veto Scotland's continuing
:36:59. > :37:01.membership. It would be against the interests not just of Scotland but
:37:02. > :37:06.the entire European Union for Scotland to be outside of that
:37:07. > :37:11.union. It would also be contrary to the founding principles of the
:37:12. > :37:16.European Union for Scotland to be excluded just because Scots had
:37:17. > :37:19.exercised the democratic right to self-determination. What is now
:37:20. > :37:23.clear to everyone is that Scotland can only join the EU as an
:37:24. > :37:26.independent member state by negotiation and by agreement of the
:37:27. > :37:30.other member states. We know that the process of negotiation may be
:37:31. > :37:36.difficult and even if the Scottish Government does not always get its
:37:37. > :37:43.own weight when it negotiates, up for... Can we get a question? Can I
:37:44. > :37:47.ask the Deputy First Minister one very direct and simple question?
:37:48. > :37:55.What will be Alex Salmond's Red Line? Is the Scottish Government
:37:56. > :37:58.ruling out signing any access entreaty that contains any clause
:37:59. > :38:05.committing Scotland to European membership at any time in the
:38:06. > :38:09.future? Scotland has been in the European Union for 40 years. We have
:38:10. > :38:15.complied with EU law for 40 years. We have contributed to the EU for 40
:38:16. > :38:18.years. The suggestion is that simply as a result of exercising our
:38:19. > :38:22.democratic right to self-determination, we would find
:38:23. > :38:27.ourselves outside. Not only is there no basis for that in the European
:38:28. > :38:33.treaties or in common-sense or in the interests of the wider EU or
:38:34. > :38:38.indeed in any thing a member state has actually said, it would in fact
:38:39. > :38:42.be an absolute affront to democracy and against the founding principles
:38:43. > :38:46.of the European Union. I would have thought that any Democrat, any
:38:47. > :38:51.Democrat, yes or no, would have found that to be completely and
:38:52. > :38:55.utterly unacceptable. That was Nicola Sturgeon speaking in the
:38:56. > :39:04.chamber yesterday. I am joined once again here in the studio by Hamish
:39:05. > :39:10.Macdonnell. Barroso said the cat among the pigeons on Sunday morning
:39:11. > :39:13.on the Andrew Marr Show. He has been criticised by supporters of
:39:14. > :39:19.independence. When he speaks, on whose authority is he speaking, do
:39:20. > :39:23.you think? He is speaking on behalf of the European Commission. People
:39:24. > :39:27.would say that is not necessarily the best democratic body there is.
:39:28. > :39:30.But he is one of the people, one of the very few people within the
:39:31. > :39:33.European structures, who you really feel should know what they are
:39:34. > :39:38.talking about. He is right at the top. Not the top bureaucrat, but
:39:39. > :39:43.right at the top of the European pyramid. Though as such, what he
:39:44. > :39:50.says carries weight. I think Herman Van Rompuy backed him up again today
:39:51. > :39:54.to a certain extent, supporting what Barroso was talking about. Whatever
:39:55. > :39:58.Barroso says about Scotland and the EU have to be taken seriously
:39:59. > :40:04.because there are very few other people with more authority and
:40:05. > :40:09.weight than him. We were watching Alistair Darling on Sunday saying
:40:10. > :40:16.that it would not be plain sailing, I think were his words, for Scotland
:40:17. > :40:19.to gain European membership. Of course people like Nicola Sturgeon
:40:20. > :40:22.are arguing against that, saying Scotland has been a member of the
:40:23. > :40:27.European Union for 40 years and it is only perhaps right that it does
:40:28. > :40:31.regain its place very quickly, if it does become independent. She has a
:40:32. > :40:35.point because Scotland has been inside the European Union for the
:40:36. > :40:39.past 40 years but Scotland has not been a member, a member state, the
:40:40. > :40:43.European Union for 40 years. Scotland has been part of another
:40:44. > :40:56.member state, the UK. She is right to say that all Scottish laws are
:40:57. > :40:59.compliant with the EU and we have been putting money in and taking it
:41:00. > :41:02.out and we are within the system, but Scotland has never been a member
:41:03. > :41:04.state. While that is all correct, Barroso is absolutely right to say
:41:05. > :41:06.that it have to be ratified, the membership application have to be
:41:07. > :41:09.ratified by the other 28 members. That is where you might come into
:41:10. > :41:12.problems. Each one of those member states will have their own views,
:41:13. > :41:19.political manoeuvrings that they want to do to try and get
:41:20. > :41:24.advantage. Any one of them, up to half a dozen even, could veto
:41:25. > :41:29.Scottish membership to extract something else from the EU. The
:41:30. > :41:34.problem is that our fate would rest in the hands of so many others. That
:41:35. > :41:38.was his key point, essentially. He brought up the example of Spain
:41:39. > :41:41.which has its independence movements in Catalonia and the Basque
:41:42. > :41:49.country. He said that Spain had not wanted Kosovo to join the European
:41:50. > :41:53.Union. Of course that meant that supporters of independence were
:41:54. > :41:58.upset. They said Scotland was being prepared to Kosovo. Was he doing
:41:59. > :42:05.that, do you think? Was it an example of Spain's problem? I think
:42:06. > :42:17.some nationalists were deliberately seizing on that, saying Scotland is
:42:18. > :42:22.not like Kosovo, but that was not what he was saying. He was not
:42:23. > :42:27.comparing Spain to Scotland. He was saying it is an example of one
:42:28. > :42:32.country having its own agenda and stopping another country's cause. He
:42:33. > :42:37.did not say Scotland was like Kosovo in the first place. The comments
:42:38. > :42:40.came out on Sunday and on Monday Alex Salmond made a keynote speech
:42:41. > :42:47.which led all the headlines on Monday evening about the plans for a
:42:48. > :42:56.sterling zone postindependence. He is clear that he will press on with
:42:57. > :42:59.the pound. We are in a strange situation where the UK Government
:43:00. > :43:03.has said that if you vote yes, you cannot join the sterling zone. And
:43:04. > :43:08.they have said if you vote yes, they will change their mind and we will
:43:09. > :43:11.give you no plan B. Voters have been crying out for certainty all over
:43:12. > :43:14.Scotland for years and I can't see that the UK Government can be more
:43:15. > :43:19.definite than it has been. It has said that he will not be able to get
:43:20. > :43:25.into a sterling zone and you need a plan B. Nobody has come up with plan
:43:26. > :43:28.B just yet. It is a difficult situation and we do have certainty
:43:29. > :43:37.up to a point but we still do not have answers. Answers will probably
:43:38. > :43:41.come after the referendum. It will be interesting to see how people
:43:42. > :43:47.feel. We will see that in the opinion polls in the next few weeks.
:43:48. > :43:50.Do people feel bullied by what Alex Salmond was saying? Do they have
:43:51. > :43:55.concerns about the pound in their pocket? One of the things George
:43:56. > :43:58.Osborne was trying to do was to polarise debate. There is a group of
:43:59. > :44:05.undecided people in the middle and both sides want them to make up
:44:06. > :44:09.their minds. So George Osborne was definite uncertain and some will not
:44:10. > :44:13.like that approach and they will go towards the yes camp. But there will
:44:14. > :44:17.be others frightened off by the thought of not having the pound
:44:18. > :44:22.after independence, and they will go to no camp. The breakdown of where
:44:23. > :44:27.those people go, we don't know and we will not know until we get
:44:28. > :44:33.polling figures in the next month. Do you think the opinion polls will
:44:34. > :44:40.reflect that in the next month? Yes, some will go towards no and some
:44:41. > :44:44.towards yes. Thank you for joining us on the programme. That is all we
:44:45. > :44:49.have time for. We are back at our usual time next week, 2:30pm, on BBC
:44:50. > :44:57.Two. Thank you for your company. Goodbye for now.