:00:22. > :00:27.Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland. We are expecting a vote in
:00:28. > :00:30.the House of Commons shortly, where MPs are expected to back a snap
:00:31. > :00:37.election on June the 8th after a lively debate. She is painting
:00:38. > :00:39.herself as the prisoner of the Lib Dems, who apparently have threatened
:00:40. > :00:45.to grind government to a standstill. Mr Speaker, there are nine of them
:00:46. > :00:49.and they managed to vote three different ways an Article 50. Good
:00:50. > :00:55.afternoon. Yesterday, Theresa May surprised the country in announcing
:00:56. > :00:59.a snap general election for June the 8th. Today, MPs have been debating a
:01:00. > :01:03.motion calling for the election and they are due to vote shortly. In a
:01:04. > :01:09.moment, we will speak to Brian Taylor at Holyrood, but first, we go
:01:10. > :01:15.to Westminster and David Porter. There is no question that this will
:01:16. > :01:19.pass, is there? None whatsoever, but over the last couple of years I have
:01:20. > :01:23.made predictions to do with politics which have been proved inaccurate,
:01:24. > :01:28.but I'm pretty confident that, in a few minutes, we will find out that
:01:29. > :01:36.MPs have backed Theresa May in her bid for aid in early election. She
:01:37. > :01:41.needs two thirds of the House of Commons, 430 MPs. If it comes to a
:01:42. > :01:44.vote, they have to back her on that. She has the support of the
:01:45. > :01:49.Conservatives, as you'd expect, the support of Labour and the Lib Dems.
:01:50. > :01:52.The SNP have said they will abstain. They say they will do nothing to
:01:53. > :01:56.forestall an early general election but they are not going to help
:01:57. > :02:00.Theresa May on it. The way the maths is working out, there is very little
:02:01. > :02:05.doubt that she will get the backing of MPs. It may, and I stress may,
:02:06. > :02:12.not even go to a vote if nobody objects when the debate concludes.
:02:13. > :02:16.David, don't go away. Apparently they are voting now but we will be
:02:17. > :02:22.back in a moment Brian Taylor is at Holyrood. Brian, the First Minister
:02:23. > :02:26.has been in London today with a message for Theresa May, hasn't she?
:02:27. > :02:31.Yes, and it was a fairly extensive message. She was meeting with the
:02:32. > :02:35.MPs, preparing for that election to come on the understanding, as David
:02:36. > :02:39.says, that it is all but done and dusted, although the result is yet
:02:40. > :02:47.to be announced. They focus on Nicola Sturgeon's comment to the
:02:48. > :02:49.effect that opposition to the Conservatives would crumble to dust.
:02:50. > :02:54.That is pretty much the same argument Nicola Sturgeon has been
:02:55. > :02:57.producing for several weeks, saying that the opposition of the
:02:58. > :03:01.Conservatives to holding a referendum now or in the near future
:03:02. > :03:06.was unsustainable. It is basically just heightened language with regard
:03:07. > :03:09.to that. Prior to that comment about the independence referendum,
:03:10. > :03:13.opposition crumble into dust, there is a long preamble in which Nicola
:03:14. > :03:17.Sturgeon isn't talking about independence at all, but the primary
:03:18. > :03:23.function of the SNP at this election being, as she sees it, to counter
:03:24. > :03:25.Tory austerity and what she sees as a Conservative heart Brexit. Why?
:03:26. > :03:31.Because the primary purpose of an election is to be a constituency MP,
:03:32. > :03:35.and Nicola Sturgeon is countering the offer of the UK Government.
:03:36. > :03:42.Second point, she doesn't want to make this a wraparound up on a
:03:43. > :03:47.wraparound. Why? The SNP currently hold 56 out of 59 Scottish seats. --
:03:48. > :03:51.she doesn't want to make this a referendum on a referendum. They
:03:52. > :03:55.have to do even better than that to force a referendum, to match that to
:03:56. > :03:59.insure a referendum is still on the table, and that is a very high bar
:04:00. > :04:03.and she will not want to do that. She will say that a big vote for the
:04:04. > :04:07.SNP makes it more challenging for the Conservatives but, you know
:04:08. > :04:14.what, note that point, that she is focusing first up on the economy and
:04:15. > :04:19.an Brexit. Because of what you have said, apart from possibly the
:04:20. > :04:22.Conservatives, maybe the Liberal Democrats? Is there anything really
:04:23. > :04:28.in this for any of the parties in Scotland? Because, as you've said,
:04:29. > :04:33.the SNP think, even if they use a few seats, the Unionist parties will
:04:34. > :04:36.presumably say, more than 50% of people voted against another
:04:37. > :04:41.referendum. Labour, well, we all know their problems Ukip, pretty
:04:42. > :04:48.marginal here. Lib Dems, will they be hoping to do something? The
:04:49. > :04:52.Tories? The Lib Dems will be hoping to do rather a lot, both in Scotland
:04:53. > :04:54.and across the UK. A sort of mirrored version of what the
:04:55. > :05:00.Conservatives did at the last Holyrood election. Ruth Davidson
:05:01. > :05:04.managed to allocate to herself a large, substantial section of the
:05:05. > :05:10.prounion vote. She said, we are Tory, but we are a union party but
:05:11. > :05:14.we don't have to look over our shoulders and concern ourselves with
:05:15. > :05:17.questions and doubt. We are the Unionist party but she managed to
:05:18. > :05:22.get a fair chunk of the vote as a. What the Lib Dems will do in this
:05:23. > :05:26.election, particularly in England but also in Scotland, will say, we
:05:27. > :05:30.are the pro-EU party, we want Scotland to be in the UK and we want
:05:31. > :05:35.the UK to be in the EU. Nearly 50% of the electorate voted for Britain
:05:36. > :05:41.to be in the EU. The Liberal Democrats hope they can persuade
:05:42. > :05:45.people to come into a common position of pro-EU support. They
:05:46. > :05:51.hope to do that more generally. In Scotland, the Tories' position is to
:05:52. > :05:55.say, if the SNP fallback, if the Tory vote rises substantially, that
:05:56. > :05:57.perhaps eases the pressure for an independence referendum, and their
:05:58. > :06:03.view would be that it strengthens the union. I think Nicola Sturgeon
:06:04. > :06:06.is careful not to go into a head-to-head battle on those
:06:07. > :06:12.grounds, simply because the bar is so high, because they hold 56 out of
:06:13. > :06:18.59 seats. B put the same point you, David, on a UK level. -- let me put
:06:19. > :06:21.the same point but you can see what is in it for the Conservatives, they
:06:22. > :06:25.think they can win, you can see what it is in it for Tim Farron, because
:06:26. > :06:31.he thinks that the Lib Dems could revive by coming the pro-remain
:06:32. > :06:34.party, but for Ukip and Labour, is there really anything for them to
:06:35. > :06:41.look forward to? Is a rather elegant way of saying, and turkeys vote for
:06:42. > :06:46.Christmas? No, normally they don't. For the Labour Party, there is a
:06:47. > :06:50.problem. Although they are in dire straits, they are still the
:06:51. > :06:54.principal opposition at Westminster, and it would, I think, have been
:06:55. > :06:58.extraordinary if the principal opposition party had an opportunity
:06:59. > :07:01.to call for a general election and said, actually, we don't fancy one,
:07:02. > :07:08.go on doing what you are going to do. To that extent, Theresa May at
:07:09. > :07:13.Jeremy Corbyn -- Jeremy Corbyn into a bit of a corner. I think Ukip have
:07:14. > :07:17.a very real problems. They had a very charismatic leader who is now
:07:18. > :07:19.no longer the leader in recent by-elections, they haven't got the
:07:20. > :07:25.traction they would have wanted. They had great hopes for the north
:07:26. > :07:29.of England and the Midlands. It now appears, with Brexit, that the
:07:30. > :07:34.Conservatives feel that they can win some of those seats over from Labour
:07:35. > :07:37.and, perhaps, people who were Eurosceptic but would not normally
:07:38. > :07:41.have voted for the Conservatives in the past may now feel they have more
:07:42. > :07:44.in common with the Conservative Party than they do with Labour, and
:07:45. > :07:50.that is actually quite a big statement to make. The way the
:07:51. > :07:53.opinion polls look at the moment, I think Theresa May would have
:07:54. > :07:58.thought, I would be daft not to go for this at this time. A number of
:07:59. > :08:02.people have been saying to her for a number of months, look, it will
:08:03. > :08:07.never be this good again. Brexit could get very sticky but frankly,
:08:08. > :08:11.you will need all the and support at Westminster that you can get,
:08:12. > :08:15.therefore, go for an election. -- all the friends and support. The
:08:16. > :08:17.opinion pollsters be wildly wrong. The Conservatives could lose support
:08:18. > :08:22.during this election campaign. At the moment, the lead they have is so
:08:23. > :08:29.great that I think Theresa May, when she looked at it, and she took the
:08:30. > :08:32.counsel of senior colleagues, she felt this was an opportunity she
:08:33. > :08:37.couldn't actually pass up, even though she will be accused of doing
:08:38. > :08:43.a U-turn. Brian and David, thank you both very much. I have to say, the
:08:44. > :08:47.level of sunshine behind you, David, looks positively dangerous! With me
:08:48. > :08:51.in the studio is the political editor of the Daily Record, David
:08:52. > :08:56.Clegg, and political commentator Lesley Riddoch. Let's start, shall
:08:57. > :09:01.we, to be boring, on Parliamentary process. As David says, turkeys
:09:02. > :09:09.voting for Christmas, arguably, with Labour, they did, but you couldn't
:09:10. > :09:11.not vote for it. What is the point of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act?
:09:12. > :09:15.Not much. It was obviously put together in a different political
:09:16. > :09:18.climate with a coalition government, trying to create stability but to
:09:19. > :09:23.get rid of it now feels right, because there isn't much point if it
:09:24. > :09:25.is just going to take a two thirds majority anyway and, if the
:09:26. > :09:29.government of the day once to dissolve Parliament, the opposition
:09:30. > :09:32.is never going to say, we think you should remain the government. In
:09:33. > :09:37.that respect, I think the Labour Party is being forced into voting
:09:38. > :09:40.for an election that all the indications are they are going to do
:09:41. > :09:46.particularly badly in the MPs who are today going to vote, many of
:09:47. > :09:48.them will lose their seats. We have seen some moderate Labour
:09:49. > :09:53.politicians say they are not going to stand again. Including Alan
:09:54. > :09:58.Johnson. Yes. I think the Labour Party is in a great deal of
:09:59. > :10:02.difficulty and will be voting this afternoon what was a great deal of
:10:03. > :10:09.enthusiasm. What is your sense that the mood amongst those of us who
:10:10. > :10:13.will be voting? Do you think it is, fantastic, another opportunity for
:10:14. > :10:19.an election! Or, for heaven 's sake, can't they get on with it?! The
:10:20. > :10:22.latter, especially in Scotland, where we have had even more
:10:23. > :10:26.elections and referendums then we have in the south. This will be the
:10:27. > :10:32.seventh election I have covered in the last few years, and I think the
:10:33. > :10:37.voters feel tired as well. What is your sense, Lesley? Much the same,
:10:38. > :10:41.but I don't think it is just people being fed up with choreographed --
:10:42. > :10:45.with politics, it is being backed up with choreographed empty dances, and
:10:46. > :10:48.that is what it is, because there is no outcome that will make a
:10:49. > :10:53.particular difference to Scotland. The SNP have been such high tide
:10:54. > :10:59.mark that, almost in every different legislature they are part of, they
:11:00. > :11:05.have broken the arithmetic. It has made no difference whatsoever to UK
:11:06. > :11:09.politics. We have a situation where 62% of Scots voted to stay in the
:11:10. > :11:12.EU, no difference whatsoever. There was a vote in the Scottish
:11:13. > :11:17.Parliament, and no difference. If they broke the bank and got 59 seats
:11:18. > :11:20.this time, would it make the blindest bit of difference? No, it
:11:21. > :11:25.wouldn't. Probably what Nicola Sturgeon is doing, in addition to
:11:26. > :11:31.the economics and everything else, is to try and showcase that complete
:11:32. > :11:38.deadlock that Scotland finds itself in. Should they get 59 MPs... That
:11:39. > :11:42.really would be more power to their elbow, in terms of getting a
:11:43. > :11:47.referendum. It would, but it is strange for me to say this to you,
:11:48. > :11:51.but what would actually take to force the hand, to change the
:11:52. > :11:55.dynamics of the argument? It is the same dynamics, just with three extra
:11:56. > :11:58.MPs stuck on top, actually, five, because there two no longer under
:11:59. > :12:06.the party whip. We are sitting with an unresolved constitutional
:12:07. > :12:09.situation in Scotland hovering over every election, including the local
:12:10. > :12:14.elections that Theresa May is just swept completely off beam by this
:12:15. > :12:16.announcement and, when it comes to it, Northern Ireland is sitting
:12:17. > :12:21.unbuttoned at the moment. All of this sits underneath the
:12:22. > :12:26.constitutional argument, which will not be very well advanced by any
:12:27. > :12:29.outcome from Scotland, unless the SNP and the Greens, in my opinion,
:12:30. > :12:34.do something quite daring, which is to come to some sort of agreement
:12:35. > :12:37.today, Maggie Chapman for the Greens is already suggesting they would not
:12:38. > :12:44.stand in seats where they have lost their deposit against the SNP. These
:12:45. > :12:48.could be pivotal seats, the few that could change hands. By your
:12:49. > :12:51.argument, it wouldn't make any difference anyway. It wouldn't, but
:12:52. > :12:56.it would demonstrate the capacity for the pro-independence parties to,
:12:57. > :13:00.to an extent, get over themselves and work together to bring about a
:13:01. > :13:04.new dynamics of politics in Scotland that people talk about but which we
:13:05. > :13:07.need to see more of. I would like to see them do something crazy in our
:13:08. > :13:13.situation and think of something like a joint manifesto. If you
:13:14. > :13:16.really mean it, why not go for it? A joint manifesto is fine under the
:13:17. > :13:20.Constitution because they agree on it, but they don't agree on many
:13:21. > :13:29.other things. I appreciate that. The Greens have got zero MPs and the SNP
:13:30. > :13:33.have 54, so why should they do a joint manifesto? That's quite true,
:13:34. > :13:36.if you look at it that way, in terms of the seats you get back. What you
:13:37. > :13:41.get from that is a recognition that there is a different way to run
:13:42. > :13:45.politics, which is consensual and recognises there is mutual benefit
:13:46. > :13:48.trying to create a different way to run the country. It is a thought. I
:13:49. > :13:52.doubt it'll happen, but we need something new of this election.
:13:53. > :13:56.Currently, it could be a stalemate. Is there and argued that the kind of
:13:57. > :14:00.ID you are thinking for would be more beneficial for the Unionist
:14:01. > :14:06.parties? -- is there an argument that the kind of idea. Not a joint
:14:07. > :14:10.Labour- Conservative manifesto, but Labour not standing in Perthshire,
:14:11. > :14:13.where the Conservatives are likely to run the SNP pretty close. If
:14:14. > :14:16.Labour won not to stand a candidate in that seat, which they have no
:14:17. > :14:22.choice of winning, and they are serious about a pro-referendum,
:14:23. > :14:26.prounion message... The independent sides can easily stand backwards or
:14:27. > :14:31.forwards, it doesn't do much damage to them. Come on! I don't know who
:14:32. > :14:34.is left supporting Labour, but the idea that you stand back to let the
:14:35. > :14:43.Conservatives in after the rape close, sanctions, attacks on
:14:44. > :14:48.disability benefits... Who would buy that? I'm not suggesting that if the
:14:49. > :14:52.tactic. Is Lesley says, Labour were perceived, rightly or wrongly, to
:14:53. > :14:56.have suffered during the independence campaign by being seen
:14:57. > :15:02.to be part of a campaign led by the Conservatives. That is what has
:15:03. > :15:06.caused all of their problems. What if they did what you are floating,
:15:07. > :15:11.that would be seen in the same way about -- in the same way, whereas,
:15:12. > :15:15.if the SNP were seen to be supporting the Greens, that wouldn't
:15:16. > :15:22.necessarily do them any harm. Green voters don't penalised their party
:15:23. > :15:27.for backing a party that wants to scrap air passenger duty. If you
:15:28. > :15:31.work Green, the idea that you would support that... But they would say
:15:32. > :15:34.in the Scottish Parliament that Patrick Harvie will support the SNP
:15:35. > :15:39.on the idea of independence but has never pretended to support them on
:15:40. > :15:47.anything else. Air passenger duty is in Holyrood.
:15:48. > :16:03.WWE universe to the left, 13. -- the noes to the left, 13. The ayes to
:16:04. > :16:16.the right 522, the noes developed, 13, so the ayes habit, the ayes have
:16:17. > :16:21.it. Unlock. That was the speaker, announcing the result of the vote.
:16:22. > :16:27.Hardly close the SNP decided they would abstain. David Porter joins us
:16:28. > :16:34.now. Whopping majority for another election. Understatement of the day,
:16:35. > :16:39.an emphatic majority, 522 in favour of an early general election, only
:16:40. > :16:44.13 against. The SNP decided to abstain on that one. No surprise.
:16:45. > :16:50.The surprise is that so many MPs decided they would be part of this
:16:51. > :16:53.debate and would record their votes. It now means that in effect the
:16:54. > :16:59.fixed term parliament act from this election can be end, let's say,
:17:00. > :17:03.Theresa May can now go ahead and call that general election which
:17:04. > :17:10.will take place on June eight. It was never really in doubt that it
:17:11. > :17:15.would happen but a huge majority. Basically the election campaign is
:17:16. > :17:19.well and truly under we! I just wondered if it surprises you, David,
:17:20. > :17:24.there was talk from Labour MPs who are opposed to Jeremy Corbyn, saying
:17:25. > :17:27.that he should not be supporting having another election and that it
:17:28. > :17:33.was as you put it earlier in the programme, like turkeys voting for
:17:34. > :17:37.Christmas. But if there are only 13 MPs voting against this it looks
:17:38. > :17:46.like most of those Labour MPs, even if they were opposed to Mr Corbyn 's
:17:47. > :17:49.position have gone along with it. It does appear that they have decided
:17:50. > :17:52.to back this. I suppose some will think yeah, if the Prime Minister
:17:53. > :17:56.gives us an opportunity to hold a general election we should take up
:17:57. > :18:02.on that. Others, I think, will thinking, this has been pretty
:18:03. > :18:07.dreadful for us Labour MPs in the last 18 months. We have a Labour
:18:08. > :18:10.that the majority of us don't want to support. Perhaps it is a case
:18:11. > :18:14.that the turkeys have thought, it may be better to get this over and
:18:15. > :18:20.done with and face whatever consequences we face. It will be a
:18:21. > :18:24.very interesting seven weeks. As far as Labour is concerned, it's going
:18:25. > :18:30.to be very interesting to see how many of those Labour MPs campaign
:18:31. > :18:38.positively with Jeremy Corbyn as their leader or campaign on local
:18:39. > :18:43.issues. Thank you for that. Let's go back to David Clegg and Lesley
:18:44. > :18:49.Riddoch. Is Labour and issue, David? What do you do if you are one of the
:18:50. > :18:52.majority of Labour MPs who will apparently be automatically selected
:18:53. > :18:56.to stand in this election and you don't agree with a word, although
:18:57. > :19:01.not so much that you don't agree with the word he says, just that...
:19:02. > :19:07.You think you can't win with him as leader. Do you stand back and do
:19:08. > :19:11.nothing or campaigned vigorously in the hope that something will change?
:19:12. > :19:14.I think you must campaign vigorously come if you stand for election you
:19:15. > :19:19.must believe in your own platform. And from a wider strategic point,
:19:20. > :19:23.surely some of the moderate Labour people, their primary ambition in
:19:24. > :19:26.that regard is to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. Taking a hammering in this
:19:27. > :19:30.election will presumably get rid of him and give them the chance to
:19:31. > :19:34.rebuild, having effectively been proved right by the electorate in
:19:35. > :19:41.what they were saying. So in that kind of long-term goal, there is an
:19:42. > :19:44.argument that having the election now is actually good. There's also
:19:45. > :19:50.an argument for sitting back and doing nothing. If you believe as a
:19:51. > :19:53.Labour MP for as long as you can keep your seat that hammering for
:19:54. > :20:01.Labour might lead to the rebirth of the Labour Party, do nothing? It's
:20:02. > :20:09.quite tactic, that. It's kind of the name of the game! Are we served by
:20:10. > :20:15.this kind of setup in Britain? This is such an extraordinary situation
:20:16. > :20:19.where, as you say, the Labour, the opposition party, had to meet the
:20:20. > :20:23.gauntlet, thrown at their feet, does the country need an election now?
:20:24. > :20:29.Really debatable. As one single thing changed in the last six weeks
:20:30. > :20:35.that the Disney means that Theresa May needs some kind of mandate? Has
:20:36. > :20:43.not. And the SNP have a mandate to do what they are doing... That was a
:20:44. > :20:48.headline in the Daily Mail. An extraordinary headline which Mrs May
:20:49. > :20:53.did not rebut today, so it remains, if you tackle this part of the
:20:54. > :20:57.Democratic process and tackle Mr May from now and you are some sort of
:20:58. > :21:03.saboteur of democracy, that is where it's got to. The Sun had a similar
:21:04. > :21:07.headline and they are big papers, I understand, I don't reach them! We
:21:08. > :21:09.will be back with you shortly. Let's cross again to College Green, I
:21:10. > :21:23.think David is with the pollster. Yes, from YouGov. Joe, your
:21:24. > :21:28.organisation is actually conducting research to find out what the UK
:21:29. > :21:32.public thinks of us. Yes, we have the latest figures, we are
:21:33. > :21:36.conducting a special poll, we want to ask if anything has changed in
:21:37. > :21:41.Scotland. My sense from the data we have already is that it hasn't. The
:21:42. > :21:46.SNP is an extremely strong position with so many seats. The best that
:21:47. > :21:55.they could hope for is a few games but they can't go any further. An
:21:56. > :22:01.incredibly high bar for the SNP. If you are a member of the Labour Party
:22:02. > :22:04.and the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, does that mean that in this
:22:05. > :22:12.campaign in Scotland you have to be ruthless and go for what you see as
:22:13. > :22:16.marginal SNP seats? I would say so. The idea of bringing back the kind
:22:17. > :22:19.of change going back to the Labour domination we saw decades ago is not
:22:20. > :22:23.realistic at the moment and won't be for some years to come. Instead you
:22:24. > :22:31.must adopt an alternative strategy, concentrate on those specific seats
:22:32. > :22:35.you can win and concentrate on those conservatives who are hoping to
:22:36. > :22:39.bring over The supporters and perhaps picking up some seats.
:22:40. > :22:44.Unlikely, but possible, and the others will attempt similar things,
:22:45. > :22:50.although it only means a handful of seats, not wholesale change. So most
:22:51. > :22:53.of the voters in Scotland will see a contest in which the parties are
:22:54. > :22:59.going through the motions, they would really fight or 59 seats
:23:00. > :23:02.hammer and tongs. Will have to see exactly what they said that the
:23:03. > :23:06.polling does suggest that. What we may seek is a realignment along the
:23:07. > :23:13.lines of Brexit, along the lines of what we saw with the Scottish
:23:14. > :23:16.independence referendum, this time everything might be about Brexit.
:23:17. > :23:19.That's more likely in England and Scotland but in both cases we have
:23:20. > :23:28.seven weeks to go and a lot can change in that time. As far as
:23:29. > :23:32.Scotland is concerned, is the voter fatigue, oh, no, not another
:23:33. > :23:37.election? It's not just in Scotland that we are picking that up, not
:23:38. > :23:40.another election, following the election and the general election
:23:41. > :23:45.and for the Scots following from the referendum. I think people would
:23:46. > :23:51.have preferred a spring off but we don't all worlds get what we want.
:23:52. > :24:00.-- not always. What are the strengths of the various parties? In
:24:01. > :24:06.Scotland the SNP have a very strong position and can play very much on
:24:07. > :24:09.this idea of independence but wanting to fight against Brexit.
:24:10. > :24:16.That will certainly formed the bedrock of their campaign. The
:24:17. > :24:20.Conservatives of Scotland will want to present themselves as the
:24:21. > :24:27.alternative for Leave voters, and the Lib Dems will hope to position
:24:28. > :24:32.themselves as a national remain option but it is difficult for all
:24:33. > :24:36.of them, given the domination of... We've seen in recent elections that
:24:37. > :24:41.the pollsters haven't always got it right. Are you confident that you
:24:42. > :24:45.have tweaked things, that you will be reflecting the view of the
:24:46. > :24:48.general public in the UK and Scotland? It is fair to say that we
:24:49. > :24:52.don't always get it right, it is also fair that we often do. We'll be
:24:53. > :24:57.hoping to get back to the good old days for the last 16 years where we
:24:58. > :25:00.have been largely accurate although all polls have a margin of error,
:25:01. > :25:05.they are only ever a snapshot of public opinion at the time. We'll
:25:06. > :25:09.have to watch what could be a close contest. Thank you very much. You
:25:10. > :25:14.will be a very busy man in the next seven weeks. Thank you for joining
:25:15. > :25:18.us. Back to you, Gordon. Thank you, David.
:25:19. > :25:25.EU officials appear to have welcomed this snap election. The chief
:25:26. > :25:30.correspondent for a political websites joins me now. David, is
:25:31. > :25:36.there a general welcome in the European Commission for this? Among
:25:37. > :25:42.the CNET EU leaders I think that is true. It may be optimistic, overly
:25:43. > :25:47.hopeful thinking but that thinking goes something like this. If Theresa
:25:48. > :25:51.May has a stronger mandate that may silence some of the ladder
:25:52. > :25:56.Brexiteers. Some of the folks who are much more anti-EU then she
:25:57. > :26:02.personally has been. This might give further leveraged understanding
:26:03. > :26:08.mandate needed to negotiate an orderly withdrawal -- this might
:26:09. > :26:14.give her the leveraged. The kind of exit that leaves everyone in a
:26:15. > :26:18.stronger position. I am interested to hear that because there has been
:26:19. > :26:24.some talk in the EU about not wanting to give Britain to good a
:26:25. > :26:30.deal in case it encourages others to leave. So if you are right and they
:26:31. > :26:34.don't want to see our hard Brexit and they would like a stronger
:26:35. > :26:44.Theresa May does that imply that the European side is quite keen to get
:26:45. > :26:49.quite some of what you want in terms of access to the single market? As I
:26:50. > :26:54.said this may be overly helpful and this won't be too pleasant or two
:26:55. > :26:58.friendly and negotiation, even today, as the commission was
:26:59. > :27:06.responding more fully to news of snap elections in Britain some of
:27:07. > :27:10.these European medicines agency 's in the UK was, they will not be
:27:11. > :27:13.there after Brexit despite some comments from David Davis and
:27:14. > :27:17.others, saying no way, these agencies will be on the territory of
:27:18. > :27:25.the EU and the UK will not be in the EU. So I think there no soft and ink
:27:26. > :27:28.of positions although there is a sign that she might be and it could
:27:29. > :27:32.be that she will be more reasonable than some of the loudest voices we
:27:33. > :27:37.have heard in the Leave camp in the last few months. The other reason
:27:38. > :27:40.what is it surprised me a little of that one thing that has been talked
:27:41. > :27:44.about is, if there is a general election in Britain and there is no
:27:45. > :27:49.prospect of a general election in 2020, the argument was that that
:27:50. > :27:54.might strengthen the EU hand in negotiations, if there was going to
:27:55. > :27:57.be an election recently afterwards they would have leveraged other
:27:58. > :28:01.Theresa May that they will not have now because there won't be an
:28:02. > :28:11.election. It's part of an analysis that I wrote for Politico yesterday.
:28:12. > :28:16.Since the Brexit vote time has been on the side of the EU. There was
:28:17. > :28:20.pressure on Mrs May two trigger Article 50 and pressure on Britain
:28:21. > :28:24.to get a deal done in the two-year deadline, and that election was
:28:25. > :28:32.looming right afterwards, when in that first year, we would not expect
:28:33. > :28:36.some of the gains to be filed from Brexit although some of the pain
:28:37. > :28:40.might be filed, so in terms of changing that election day, the
:28:41. > :28:43.point at which Theresa May and her government would face a test at the
:28:44. > :28:47.ballot box gives her a bit of a cushion, but on the other hand that
:28:48. > :28:52.is not inconsistent with some of the goals in Brussels. She's talking
:28:53. > :28:55.about possibly the need for a transitional period, that may be
:28:56. > :28:59.difficult or may have been more difficult to negotiate with an
:29:00. > :29:02.election looming, if she has an extra two your cushion that may
:29:03. > :29:07.allow you to get a transition in place, keeps the UK paying into the
:29:08. > :29:11.EU budget which Brussels would not oppose by any means, and also gives
:29:12. > :29:16.a window to negotiate a trade stew which both sides have said they
:29:17. > :29:17.would like. David, thank you very much. Let's get some political
:29:18. > :29:24.reaction. Joining me from Minister is the
:29:25. > :29:30.SNP's Jeopardy Westminster leader, Stuart Ramsey. Brian Taylor said
:29:31. > :29:35.earlier that Nicola Sturgeon does not want this general election to be
:29:36. > :29:40.a referendum on whether there should be another independence referendum,
:29:41. > :29:45.is that your view? What she said was the Scottish Government already has
:29:46. > :29:46.a mandate to hold a Scottish independence referendum. This
:29:47. > :29:50.general election is about other things as well. It is about the type
:29:51. > :29:54.of Brexit we will have. It is about whether we will continue with
:29:55. > :29:59.austerity. It is about whether we will have a right wing government
:30:00. > :30:12.unfettered by substantial opposition, cutting even more deeply
:30:13. > :30:14.than in the past few years. It is about a lot of things, not simply
:30:15. > :30:16.about Scotland's constitutional future. What would you count as
:30:17. > :30:18.success that the SNP in this election? I remember going through
:30:19. > :30:22.the entire election contest in 2015 saying that our intention was to win
:30:23. > :30:27.the UK election in Scotland. This is our intention on June eight. Given
:30:28. > :30:30.that we have been sitting on 47% in the polls for the last seven months
:30:31. > :30:36.we've got to be pretty confident that we will do very well indeed.
:30:37. > :30:45.Would you accept there is a chance that, given you did so well in 2015,
:30:46. > :30:48.that you might lose a few seats? You never take the electorate for
:30:49. > :30:51.granted and, speaking to my colleagues, I think they are going
:30:52. > :30:55.to contest their seats as if they were trying to win them for the
:30:56. > :31:01.first time. The mood of the party on the ground in Scotland is absolutely
:31:02. > :31:06.buoyant. We are confident we've got a really positive message, not this
:31:07. > :31:11.Brexit, not the hard Tory, cliff edge Brexit, not the austerity. We
:31:12. > :31:14.have a picture to make which is far, far more progressive, far better not
:31:15. > :31:19.just for the people of Scotland but also, in Scotland in particular, the
:31:20. > :31:23.ball walk between the Scottish people and a hard right Tory
:31:24. > :31:27.government, I think that is an incredibly attractive proposition to
:31:28. > :31:32.make. Is it? Let's say you are right, the polls are correct and you
:31:33. > :31:37.get 46, 40 7% of the vote, you keep most of your MPs at Westminster, why
:31:38. > :31:43.does anything changed? Theresa May still says, I'm not ruling out a
:31:44. > :31:49.referendum, but you're not having one while the Brexit negotiations
:31:50. > :31:52.are going on. You say, that's terrible, we want another
:31:53. > :31:57.independence referendum. We are exactly back where we are right now,
:31:58. > :32:00.aren't we? Is the First Minister made clear this morning, the measure
:32:01. > :32:05.of success in an election is winning the most votes in the most seats. If
:32:06. > :32:09.our pitch is to move Scotland forward, and the Tory pitch, and
:32:10. > :32:13.remember this is a straight SNP- Tory fight in Scotland now, the Tory
:32:14. > :32:18.pitch is to keep Scotland stuck in this hard Brexit union, if we win, I
:32:19. > :32:23.think Theresa May doesn't have a democratic leg to stand on if she
:32:24. > :32:26.thought she could pose another independence referendum. But you
:32:27. > :32:31.don't think she has a leg to stand on right now, so I don't see what
:32:32. > :32:37.has changed. She set the parameters, not us. I started by saying that the
:32:38. > :32:41.Scottish Government currently has a mandate to hold the referendum, and
:32:42. > :32:47.we intend to do that, but our argument is that it is not a proxy
:32:48. > :32:52.on the referendum. If it is an SNP - Tory fight and we win, I think the
:32:53. > :32:54.last vestiges of democratic credibility footy remake -- for
:32:55. > :33:00.Theresa May go completely. The scenario both you and I are
:33:01. > :33:04.accepting, that you still do very well, you keep most of your seats,
:33:05. > :33:10.you still don't get your referendum on independence, so what do you do
:33:11. > :33:13.next? I don't accept that. If Theresa May is even remotely a
:33:14. > :33:19.democrat, there is not just the mandate from the 2016 election, the
:33:20. > :33:24.mandate from the Scottish Parliamentary vote, but the mandate
:33:25. > :33:29.from a UK election. It puts her in a very weak position. Lesley Riddoch,
:33:30. > :33:34.it's an odd one for the SNP, because what does change, even if, as
:33:35. > :33:38.Stewart Hosie outlined, they do all that? As you said earlier, they are
:33:39. > :33:43.back where they are at the moment. Sort of, and it is a bit difficult,
:33:44. > :33:46.because there are plenty of people out there who want to campaign on
:33:47. > :33:50.independence now, but the SNP will feel that there is not the right
:33:51. > :33:54.time to do that. A seven-week campaign in which, if you put detail
:33:55. > :34:01.out, it will be picked over on questions of currency... Would your
:34:02. > :34:05.advice be, look, don't go into details about what an independent
:34:06. > :34:10.Scotland would look like? Just say you are in favour of it. They are
:34:11. > :34:14.saved from that in extent by the timing. Since it is not of their
:34:15. > :34:21.choice, they can put up their and say, we are doing this seriously, we
:34:22. > :34:24.had a process, so we can't come out with answers to staff within seven
:34:25. > :34:32.weeks. It's far too short ace timescale. -- answers to this. There
:34:33. > :34:36.is still going to be a lot of disgruntled people out there who
:34:37. > :34:40.want, at long last, just to campaign for the vision of an independent
:34:41. > :34:44.Scotland in Europe, the frustrating thing to me slightly, as somebody
:34:45. > :34:48.who isn't a member of the SNP, is that lots of people want to discuss
:34:49. > :34:53.that and get into the bones of what it would mean to be in Europe or the
:34:54. > :35:00.EEA, all the halfway house options, but you can't do that as long as the
:35:01. > :35:03.SNP are coy about this becoming a vote on independence, because they
:35:04. > :35:09.are not geared up for that. What is your take? An odd one for the SNP.
:35:10. > :35:14.They could be victims of their own past success in this election. I
:35:15. > :35:18.don't see a massive downside for them, to be honest. I think it is
:35:19. > :35:24.quite possible for them to lose a couple seats. An extra result in
:35:25. > :35:30.2015, winning 56 seat out of 59, and the law of gravity suggests they may
:35:31. > :35:33.well fall back a little. They will still overwhelmingly win in Scotland
:35:34. > :35:39.for the scenario, they win 50 or something, so they are thrilled --
:35:40. > :35:43.they are still in a strong position. In a general UK context, their
:35:44. > :35:46.ultimate goal could be strengthened, because it looks like we will see
:35:47. > :35:52.the Labour Party wiped out by the Tories at a UK level. So that the
:35:53. > :35:55.SNP can say it is a fight between independence against the hated
:35:56. > :36:02.Tories, as they would put it. You saw Stewart Hosie saying, this is a
:36:03. > :36:06.hard Brexit, and that is a compelling argument to be made for
:36:07. > :36:09.independence if a referendum comes along, and a general election result
:36:10. > :36:15.in a few weeks which has a massive Tory majority make it stronger. But
:36:16. > :36:20.you didn't hear him talk about independence. I don't think the SNP
:36:21. > :36:22.are wanting to style this is independence against the Tories. It
:36:23. > :36:29.is basically the SNP against the Tories. It's a political party
:36:30. > :36:32.thing. Lets get some reaction from the Conservatives. The MP John
:36:33. > :36:37.Stephenson joins us from Westminster. What ambitions do you
:36:38. > :36:41.have up here for the Conservatives in this election? What I am
:36:42. > :36:46.campaigning for is a Conservative majority government in the UK. I
:36:47. > :36:51.want to make sure we are well above 325 seats and I'd like to see as
:36:52. > :36:56.many seats as we can win in Scotland to enhance that. That you any notion
:36:57. > :37:00.of realistically what a number of seats in Scotland would be? -- have
:37:01. > :37:02.you any notion. We campaign everywhere and we would hope to
:37:03. > :37:08.games in Scotland. We will be campaigning vigorously. We have a
:37:09. > :37:11.very good leader in Scotland, a very good Prime Minister, and it's about
:37:12. > :37:17.a UK Government, it is about who is leading the UK into negotiations
:37:18. > :37:22.with the EU, that is what this election is about. What is your
:37:23. > :37:27.rationale for why Theresa May has done this? I think it is entirely
:37:28. > :37:31.logical. Last year, we had a UK wide referendum and voted to come out of
:37:32. > :37:35.the EU. Article 50 has been triggered. It is now about getting a
:37:36. > :37:39.mandate for the negotiation with our European partners. Who does this
:37:40. > :37:42.country want to be Prime Minister leading these negotiations? Is it
:37:43. > :37:51.Prime Minister May with a Conservative majority or is it
:37:52. > :37:56.Jeremy Corbyn and? When you say a mandate, that would be more
:37:57. > :38:00.convincing word Theresa May to lay out a prospectus before the British
:38:01. > :38:05.people during the selection of what exactly it is she wants to
:38:06. > :38:10.negotiate. We will have to wait and see what the Prime Minister does lay
:38:11. > :38:15.out during the campaign, but the important is, does this country have
:38:16. > :38:21.confidence in? That doesn't give any logic at all. You talked about the
:38:22. > :38:24.logic of an election. It's not as if she was about to be overwhelmed by
:38:25. > :38:29.strident opposition from the Labour Party. She really needs to hold an
:38:30. > :38:37.election to marginalise it hard Brexit is in your own party, who
:38:38. > :38:43.will presumably cry traitor every attempt to deal with the EU. -- to
:38:44. > :38:51.marginalise the hard Brexiteers. I was a remainder but I support
:38:52. > :38:57.reminisced in her objective now. She wants to make sure she has a stable
:38:58. > :39:00.majority in parliament, that she can negotiate from a position of
:39:01. > :39:03.strength. Unfortunately, many of the opposition parties want to frustrate
:39:04. > :39:08.the process. They don't want the best deal for the UK, they want to
:39:09. > :39:11.upset the negotiations and continuously talk about is second
:39:12. > :39:16.referendum. I think the focus of the Prime Minister is right. Can you
:39:17. > :39:19.give any examples of the sort of thing you would want to see from
:39:20. > :39:23.Brexit that is different from hard Brexit? You say you were a
:39:24. > :39:29.remainder. What is the difference between what you want and what some
:39:30. > :39:34.of the hard Brexiteers want? Whenever people talk about this, I
:39:35. > :39:38.think we are going to end up with a bespoke UK- EU trade deal, and that
:39:39. > :39:42.is what I would want to see. That gets the best for all parties. A
:39:43. > :39:50.specific deal done for the benefit of the UK and our European parties.
:39:51. > :39:56.That is the right approach. Would you be prepared to seek concessions
:39:57. > :40:01.on immigration to get such a deal, Britain being part of a customs
:40:02. > :40:05.union? What would it look like? I don't want to pre-empt any
:40:06. > :40:12.negotiations... ... You are just telling us your opinion. You can see
:40:13. > :40:18.a deal sector by sector, a broadbrush trade deal. That would be
:40:19. > :40:21.down to the negotiations. I think we will end up with a bespoke deal
:40:22. > :40:24.between the UK and the EU and we will look to see if we can get
:40:25. > :40:30.similar deals with other countries and the rest of the world. Thank
:40:31. > :40:33.you. We haven't talked about why you two think that Theresa is doing
:40:34. > :40:41.this. There is an obvious thing about wanting their own and eight.
:40:42. > :40:46.What do you think it is to try and head off the hardline Brexiteers in
:40:47. > :40:49.her own party? If so, I am not sure it's going to work, because they
:40:50. > :40:54.will probably still be there after the election as much as now. That's
:40:55. > :40:58.true, and I don't think anybody is going to get by this line -- is
:40:59. > :41:04.going to buy this line that opponents of the route should
:41:05. > :41:07.actually sit up -- shut up, sit down and let her have an unchallenged
:41:08. > :41:11.course through the whole thing. I am conscious, listening to the MP, of
:41:12. > :41:16.this notion that there could be a hope for a trade deal negotiated
:41:17. > :41:23.between Britain and the EU. If this was such a kind of go, why is it
:41:24. > :41:30.that banks are relocating right now out of London into Frankfurt, Berlin
:41:31. > :41:36.and Dublin? Passport in, which was so important... If I was a bank
:41:37. > :41:42.executive, I would say it is prudent behaviour. Before cost of that
:41:43. > :41:46.prudent behaviour, cast in the context of the Scottish referendum,
:41:47. > :41:50.was a huge problem for that referendum -- proposition, but it is
:41:51. > :41:54.happening quietly now and we don't connect it with the discussions
:41:55. > :41:58.about the future. The guys with the money are already shipping out. Why
:41:59. > :42:03.do you think Theresa May is doing it? Apart from the personal mandate,
:42:04. > :42:10.like John Major. I don't think it is as much Brexit as pure party
:42:11. > :42:13.political advantage. Two polls said that Labour were 20 points behind
:42:14. > :42:18.and, lo and behold, there is a snap election. I think she thinks that
:42:19. > :42:25.Jeremy Corbyn will be a disaster and it won't necessarily be, it won't
:42:26. > :42:29.necessarily be this bad for ever, so she should strike now. So you think
:42:30. > :42:33.all this talk we heard from John Stevenson about giving her a mandate
:42:34. > :42:40.or her particular form of Brexit is all just Guha. There two separate
:42:41. > :42:45.ideas. One is that she is trying to protect herself from the hard
:42:46. > :42:49.Brexiteers. Why has she filled her cabinet with them then? Some others
:42:50. > :42:54.are suggesting it is going to lead, the EU thinks it's going to lead to
:42:55. > :42:59.a softer Brexit. I don't see much evidence she is pushing for that. We
:43:00. > :43:03.will be back with you later. Ian Murray, Scotland's only Labour MP,
:43:04. > :43:08.joins us now. It was only recently that you were tweeting that your
:43:09. > :43:13.leader was a disaster. Can he win a general election? It's hardly
:43:14. > :43:17.surprising that you are reading those back to me. It's not also a
:43:18. > :43:23.surprise that I didn't support Jeremy Corbyn's leadership when he
:43:24. > :43:26.was re-elected, but he is the leader of the Labour Party, we are going
:43:27. > :43:32.into election, he is our candidate for Prime Minister and we will
:43:33. > :43:35.support him on that. Can you win? Of course. We are looking to try and
:43:36. > :43:39.gain seats back in Scotland and we are looking to fight for every
:43:40. > :43:44.single seat across the country. This election is being framed as a Brexit
:43:45. > :43:47.election. It's an unnecessary general election, the promised has
:43:48. > :43:52.gone back on a promise not to have one, so we go to the country, we
:43:53. > :43:55.bring down this Conservative government and we go back and say
:43:56. > :43:59.there is a choice to be made, and the choice is to stop this hard
:44:00. > :44:01.Brexit you have been talking about and to send a message to Nicola
:44:02. > :44:09.Sturgeon that we don't want another independence referendum. That is the
:44:10. > :44:14.framing of this election. What is the choice? Labour doesn't appear to
:44:15. > :44:19.have a position on Brexit, which is particularly clear. Is there some
:44:20. > :44:26.proposition about Brexit you will be putting to the people of the country
:44:27. > :44:29.and, if so, what is it? Keir Starmer in his Mansion house speech a few
:44:30. > :44:34.weeks ago set at six key tests, one of which was to maintain access or
:44:35. > :44:39.membership of the single market, that was one, and everything else is
:44:40. > :44:42.framed around it. They are around making sure we can protect workers'
:44:43. > :44:45.rights, making sure we can protect the social chapter we have enjoyed,
:44:46. > :44:50.in terms of the rights we have in this country. There are six tests,
:44:51. > :44:56.the clear position of the Labour Party to hold to account. If we win
:44:57. > :45:01.the election on June the 8th, we will be going back to make sure we
:45:02. > :45:05.can get the softest of soft Brexits and we will see where that leads us.
:45:06. > :45:06.The manifesto will be out soon and that will detail clearly what the
:45:07. > :45:16.Labour Party position is. You said one minute ago you would
:45:17. > :45:21.like to keep your own seed. Do you have any notion of how many seats
:45:22. > :45:27.realistically Labour could claw back in Scotland? Any ambitions in that
:45:28. > :45:32.front? We will be looking to win as many seats as we can. The election
:45:33. > :45:38.was only called at 1115 yesterday morning and took us all by surprise
:45:39. > :45:42.including no doubt yourself on the BBC because everybody was
:45:43. > :45:46.speculating it might be some other announcements we are putting
:45:47. > :45:50.resources into seats we think we can win, pushing candidates in every
:45:51. > :45:55.seat in Scotland and fighting on the dishes on their doorsteps. We said
:45:56. > :45:57.in 2015 that any other vote than Labour in delivering a Tory
:45:58. > :46:01.government would be bad the country and I am sorry to say we have been
:46:02. > :46:07.proved right, we have disastrous Brexit coming up and we back on this
:46:08. > :46:12.merry-go-round of independence. That's the result of not electing
:46:13. > :46:16.Labour. So now we say, let's elect a Labour government, get rid of this
:46:17. > :46:20.dreadful Conservative government, get the country back on track and
:46:21. > :46:25.Goldberg services important to your viewers which the economy,
:46:26. > :46:31.education, and the future. You have made no secret of your opinion about
:46:32. > :46:36.Jeremy Corbyn. The worst Labour do, the more likely it is you can get
:46:37. > :46:41.rid of him and the better you do, the less likely it is you can get
:46:42. > :46:45.rid of him. We want to win this election because one good day of
:46:46. > :46:49.Labour government is better than a thousand days of bad Tory government
:46:50. > :46:53.so we will do all we can to get Theresa May out of Downing Street.
:46:54. > :46:58.We all share the same values in the Labour movement, that comes out time
:46:59. > :47:03.after time, whether it is myself, Kezia Dugdale Jeremy Corbyn and
:47:04. > :47:06.we'll be taking those values to the doorstep and telling people what it
:47:07. > :47:08.is so important to get rid of this Tory government, the country is
:47:09. > :47:24.staring down the barrel of a gun in terms of a hard Brexit. We
:47:25. > :47:27.have to say to the Prime Minister it's not acceptable, no one voted
:47:28. > :47:30.for this, it is bad for the country and bad for the future and they will
:47:31. > :47:33.turn to us and vote Labour. Thank you very much. David, as ringing
:47:34. > :47:38.endorsements of a leader go, I have heard ringinger! It's clear that
:47:39. > :47:42.he's not comfortable with Jeremy Corbyn but he's got a fight on his
:47:43. > :47:45.hands. You must be nervous. I was doing a piece of the paper today
:47:46. > :47:49.about what the key contest in Scotland could be and it's almost
:47:50. > :47:54.impossible to find a seat where Labour could pick up a seat. The
:47:55. > :47:58.only thing they could do is pour all their resources to try to hold on
:47:59. > :48:02.with Ian Murray because we've heard speculation in the last 24 hours
:48:03. > :48:06.that Scotland could become a Tory free zone as far as MPs are
:48:07. > :48:12.concerned. It's not inconceivable that it could be a Labour MP free
:48:13. > :48:18.zone as well. His majority isn't that great. Not the worst but not
:48:19. > :48:21.strong enough that he would be particularly confident enough
:48:22. > :48:30.especially with the Corbyn drug effect. Any other seats Labour might
:48:31. > :48:36.win? All the strongholds in Glasgow were former strongholds, I had
:48:37. > :48:43.forgotten just how large the SNP majority is. Could not go back just
:48:44. > :48:48.as quickly? Certainly not in this election. What is your take on
:48:49. > :48:52.Labour? Mum another thing that could happen chronologically is the
:48:53. > :48:56.council elections. I appreciate that they are pretty small beer, the way
:48:57. > :49:00.that they are played, some areas that no one identifies with, however
:49:01. > :49:05.there is already organisation on the ground and the SNP are infinitely
:49:06. > :49:09.more organised than Labour for that. They've got activists down on that
:49:10. > :49:14.level canvassing relentlessly so these guys just need to keep going
:49:15. > :49:18.and that will make it even more difficult because there are reports
:49:19. > :49:23.of Labour not fielding full slate of candidates because they can't summon
:49:24. > :49:27.the numbers. A puzzle here. Labour claims to be the biggest mass
:49:28. > :49:32.membership party in Western Europe and although perhaps the numbers
:49:33. > :49:37.joining in Scotland are less than in England still a lot of people have
:49:38. > :49:43.been joining, haven't they managed to turn that new membership into a
:49:44. > :49:46.campaigning organisation? I don't know if it's a case in England, but
:49:47. > :49:52.in Scotland they haven't had the numbers to do that much. Lesley
:49:53. > :49:57.mentions an important point, the candidates. One great advantage to
:49:58. > :50:01.the SNP will have is that their candidates will be there already
:50:02. > :50:09.because they have practically all the seats. Except Mhairi Black. She
:50:10. > :50:12.says she will stay on. The Conservatives have been talking this
:50:13. > :50:15.morning, she thinks they could target five or six seats and they've
:50:16. > :50:20.been having a bit of bother with some of their candidates saying
:50:21. > :50:23.silly things on social media. They will be having to get candidates in
:50:24. > :50:33.place and let them and they don't have much time to do that. Vows of
:50:34. > :50:38.silence perhaps! Scrubbing their Twitter feed before they go forward!
:50:39. > :50:43.About Labour, because will talk about the Lib Dems later, anything
:50:44. > :50:47.at all to gain full Labour nationally? UK wide? If Jeremy
:50:48. > :50:53.Corbyn surprised everyone, there could be that. The polls have been
:50:54. > :50:59.shown to be wrong before and they are a mass membership. I personally
:51:00. > :51:03.think the polls are about right. The Corbyn Labour Party is just the kind
:51:04. > :51:13.of organisation you like, isn't it? A ground upwards let's get down to
:51:14. > :51:17.the grassroots peoples party? That is the way the Corbyn supporters and
:51:18. > :51:22.Momentum people would see themselves. There is an irony that
:51:23. > :51:26.the kind of person Labour has lost in Scotland to the SNP would
:51:27. > :51:30.probably not be unhappy voting for Corbyn 's Labour Party in some
:51:31. > :51:36.respects but that's not the deal on offer. It's kind of academic. As far
:51:37. > :51:41.as what Labour could look for in the UK, all they can look for is first
:51:42. > :51:45.past the post, one of the least fair systems on the planet and if they
:51:46. > :51:48.could figure any kind of tactical voting there might be some
:51:49. > :51:56.possibilities, the Scots have proved very adept, and figuring out how to
:51:57. > :52:03.remove a Tory. It's possible that Southern voters could catch on and
:52:04. > :52:07.might vote Lib Dem. Paul Mason, now a Labour Party member, advocated on
:52:08. > :52:13.Newsnight last night tactical voting if you were a Corbyn supporter. That
:52:14. > :52:19.might catch on. The problem with that is that the position on Brexit
:52:20. > :52:27.is so muddied. That could benefit the Lib Dems rather than Labour. If
:52:28. > :52:30.you are in favour of Remain and have a strong Lib Dem premise they have a
:52:31. > :52:35.clearer pro-remain aligned than Labour so why would you not vote Lib
:52:36. > :52:39.Dem? Lacey if Labour could change the agenda down south from being
:52:40. > :52:44.about Brexit to do you want this Tory government that doesn't want
:52:45. > :52:48.any opposition, if they could get that dynamic going then possibly
:52:49. > :52:52.people would think, how do I get a Tory out in this seat in much the
:52:53. > :52:58.same way the Scots did without a script? The two elections running?
:52:59. > :53:03.David is down on College Green again. Let's get a final thought. It
:53:04. > :53:08.is all done and dusted, what's the reaction been? I think it is, thank
:53:09. > :53:12.goodness it is going to happen, we knew it would happen from yesterday,
:53:13. > :53:14.let's get on with it. There's a bit of business to be done in
:53:15. > :53:20.Westminster this week and next week, we think Parliament will be revoked
:53:21. > :53:26.toward the end of next week, so they've got a few days to do what
:53:27. > :53:30.they call washing-up business, that is important pieces of legislation
:53:31. > :53:35.like the Finance Bill and stuff like that which is important to the
:53:36. > :53:41.finances of the country and there will be other bills that will fall,
:53:42. > :53:47.and we will know that the new government will want to take those
:53:48. > :53:51.bills Ford or not. I think the feeling is, speaking to MPs, they
:53:52. > :53:57.know there will be an election on June eight, now they just want to
:53:58. > :54:03.get on with it. They just wonder, whether they wanted an election or
:54:04. > :54:08.not, it is what they are in politics to do, to represent their
:54:09. > :54:15.constituencies and from time to time put themselves up for election. We
:54:16. > :54:19.have seen the SNP, the Conservatives, and the Labour
:54:20. > :54:22.speaking as if this was their big chance, the one thing that they
:54:23. > :54:28.could not wait for! Obviously they are all going to win! Which of them
:54:29. > :54:33.meant it? Of course they say will all win and they are all confident.
:54:34. > :54:37.I think in Scotland it's going to be incredibly difficult to see things
:54:38. > :54:43.changing very much to tell the truth. The SNP are in a very strong
:54:44. > :54:51.position and in many of the seats they have, even if they did see
:54:52. > :54:58.their support, they have a quite big majority, perhaps they will be a few
:54:59. > :55:03.changes, the SNP could see a couple of seats but I don't think it will
:55:04. > :55:07.change dramatically. The UK as a whole, the Conservatives seem to
:55:08. > :55:13.have a huge lead, that could be some false opinion polls, but it could
:55:14. > :55:18.mean as well that as far as Labour MPs are concerned, and you talk to
:55:19. > :55:23.Labour MPs privately, they are not confident. They are going through
:55:24. > :55:27.this because they have to. We could have a situation where, as far as
:55:28. > :55:31.England is concerned, we are in effect have a realignment of
:55:32. > :55:37.politics if Labour take a big hit. I am catching it, it is if, it is
:55:38. > :55:41.maybe, it is good, it is not necessarily going to happen. The
:55:42. > :55:44.next few weeks will be important. Paradoxically local elections could
:55:45. > :55:50.be important because they will give an indication of the way people are
:55:51. > :55:55.thinking. Now we've got a general election grafted on top of the local
:55:56. > :55:59.elections, many people in local elections will vote as the do in a
:56:00. > :56:02.general election, they will just be doing it more than a month before
:56:03. > :56:09.the real general election. It will be fascinating as far as political
:56:10. > :56:15.journalists are concerned, and good for trade, people may say that
:56:16. > :56:20.campaigns are boring, don't believe them. Plenty of unexpected stories
:56:21. > :56:24.will come along. It will be fun. David, thank you. We hoped to speak
:56:25. > :56:30.to Alistair Carmichael, he didn't turn up today. Before we go back,
:56:31. > :56:34.look at this. Winning 56 seats will be a huge challenge for Nicola
:56:35. > :56:40.Sturgeon 's party, Ruth Davidson has predicted that we have hit peak and
:56:41. > :56:47.the only way is down. This party... How!
:56:48. > :56:56.LAUGHTER Don't do pieces to Camara! Have a
:56:57. > :57:03.quick look around first. Do a piece to the Camara is as close to the
:57:04. > :57:08.scene of the action. You could always cover all the bases. And
:57:09. > :57:12.Nicola Sturgeon does seem to be popping up all over the place, she
:57:13. > :57:16.did have a pre-existing arrangement that took her to London today that
:57:17. > :57:22.they she is a game. We're going to have seven weeks of this, any
:57:23. > :57:30.surprises as David with his usual amazing optimism forecast! What
:57:31. > :57:35.could come along? The only surprise in Scotland would be if the SNP
:57:36. > :57:41.don't do well. It doesn't seem very likely. This Tory revival taking
:57:42. > :57:45.lots of SNP seats would be a big story but it doesn't seem likely. UK
:57:46. > :57:51.wide the question is what does the public make of Jeremy Corbyn. Or
:57:52. > :58:01.could this machine, allegedly behind him, suddenly spring into action? Is
:58:02. > :58:05.interesting because people will be sizing him up as a potential Prime
:58:06. > :58:11.Minister negotiating Brexit. Let's see what they think about that
:58:12. > :58:16.prospect. Potential surprises? The local elections. Will the NSP take
:58:17. > :58:20.Glasgow? Will they hold steady? If they do then the alignment of
:58:21. > :58:24.practically all the representation of the SNP within these big cities
:58:25. > :58:31.is complete and that's a big spur to them and what they go on to do and
:58:32. > :58:34.the foot shoulders upon whom much is dependent. People should not dismiss
:58:35. > :58:41.the local elections out of hand because that will be huge. And the
:58:42. > :58:45.general election, any surprises? Can Corbyn muster the troops and
:58:46. > :58:49.actually show some leadership. Will have to leave it there. Thank you
:58:50. > :58:53.both very much indeed. That's all we've got time for now, First
:58:54. > :58:55.Minister's Questions is tomorrow at midday, until then, from us all,
:58:56. > :59:02.goodbye. this super-sized hospital has been
:59:03. > :59:08.transforming lives in Scotland. He said it had been
:59:09. > :59:13.grown in America. There's nowhere else in Scotland
:59:14. > :59:16.that could have done everything that we've done.
:59:17. > :59:19.Yes, there's the sad times, but we get to see people
:59:20. > :59:23.with happy endings.