:00:25. > :00:30.Parliament. We would normally be in recess, but things are a bit
:00:31. > :00:38.different at the minute with the event on the team dominating
:00:39. > :00:45.everything. So, lots of questions I am sure to the First Minister. Maybe
:00:46. > :00:48.questions about the oil deposits. Let's see. Let's cross over to the
:00:49. > :00:53.chamber. John Swinney is on his feet at the
:00:54. > :00:59.moment and he is taking a question about a backbench MSP on labour
:01:00. > :01:04.market statistics. The energy minister has already been dealing
:01:05. > :01:13.with the issue of oil and the economics of oil and weather there
:01:14. > :01:24.are vast reserves remaining. We are moving to first ministers -- First
:01:25. > :01:32.Minister's Question Time now. A round of applause for the First
:01:33. > :01:36.Minister of Malawi. We now move to First Minister's Questions. Joanne
:01:37. > :01:41.Lamont. What engagements does he have planned for the rest of the
:01:42. > :01:48.day. Engagements to take forward the government's programme for Scotland.
:01:49. > :01:53.The First Minister and I can agree on two things, Sir Ian Wood is the
:01:54. > :01:56.pre-eminent expert on North Sea oil and he does not have much time for
:01:57. > :02:02.politicians. Yesterday he reluctantly entered the referendum
:02:03. > :02:05.debate saying he did so as a father and grandfather and saying he did
:02:06. > :02:10.not want future generations to ask why he stayed silent. He warned that
:02:11. > :02:15.the Scottish Government had overestimated oil and gas production
:02:16. > :02:23.by between 45% and 60%. He warned that tax revenue -- tax revenue had
:02:24. > :02:37.been overestimated by 2,000 million pounds a year. Is he right
:02:38. > :02:43.question? I hope we can agree on more than two things. We agreed just
:02:44. > :02:47.two weeks ago that Scotland had the potential to be a prosperous
:02:48. > :02:51.independent country. Let me agree that Ian Wood is an authority on
:02:52. > :03:01.North Sea oil and gas. He is not the only authority, of course. I think
:03:02. > :03:06.what he has to say on matters should be considered carefully. Can I point
:03:07. > :03:12.out that the figure that I have often quoted of up to 24 billion
:03:13. > :03:16.barrels of oil and gas equivalent remaining in the North Sea is not
:03:17. > :03:21.the Scottish Government figure, it was the figure that the industry
:03:22. > :03:26.produced and has produced for a number of years. I think it is a
:03:27. > :03:30.robust figure. It shows the extraordinary potential that remains
:03:31. > :03:34.in the water around Scotland if the policies pursued to make sure that
:03:35. > :03:42.these resources work with the Scottish people. There are two
:03:43. > :03:46.things. The First Minister recognised that he is an authority
:03:47. > :03:54.but if he says something he doesn't want to hear he simply ignores it.
:03:55. > :03:58.That is not good enough. Secondly, I would have imagined that Sir Ian
:03:59. > :04:02.Wood new what the First Minister said about these figures and is
:04:03. > :04:08.offering a critique that we must address. He has rightly praised him
:04:09. > :04:12.in the past and it is for the public to judge away the First Minister
:04:13. > :04:18.disagrees with him now. He said, relevance to the independent debate
:04:19. > :04:24.is how long gas and oil production will last. He said, young voters
:04:25. > :04:29.must be fully aware that by the time they are middle aged Scotland will
:04:30. > :04:32.have little offshore oil and gas production and this will seriously
:04:33. > :04:39.hit our economy, jobs and public services. Can the First Minister
:04:40. > :04:46.tell our children and grandchildren why Sir Ian Wood was wrong to give
:04:47. > :04:49.them that warning question mark my headline message for the youth of
:04:50. > :04:57.today, get involved. The North Sea oil industry will see you through
:04:58. > :05:03.your lifetime. That was Sir Ian Wood in 2012. Yes, he is an authority and
:05:04. > :05:11.he has been foremost in pointing out the future potential of the oil and
:05:12. > :05:23.gas province. Today on the radio he said, and I think he was right to do
:05:24. > :05:29.so, this was Sir... He said he had spoken to Alistair Kemp in the last
:05:30. > :05:32.few days and he felt that the figure of 15 billion barrels was an
:05:33. > :05:40.appropriate estimate. Incidentally, that compares with the estimate of
:05:41. > :05:47.10 billion over the next 30 years by the old BR, which is 60% higher than
:05:48. > :05:51.the one offered by the agencies of Her Majesty's government. He said he
:05:52. > :05:55.had been speaking to Professor Kemp over the last few days. I consulted
:05:56. > :06:07.his website, at the University of Aberdeen. Professor Alex Kemp have
:06:08. > :06:12.modelled this. He puts forward projections and says that if targets
:06:13. > :06:19.and tax incentives were introduced, it would last until 2050 and it
:06:20. > :06:25.could go up to 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent. It is available on
:06:26. > :06:34.the University of Aberdeen website that there is potential for further
:06:35. > :06:40.developments after 2050. They find that that there would be 125 known
:06:41. > :06:47.existing discoveries remaining undeveloped with further progress
:06:48. > :06:52.and oil prices... It finishes, the ultimate potential of 24 billion
:06:53. > :07:00.barrels of oil equivalent foreseen by oil and gas UK appears plausible.
:07:01. > :07:07.We have a point of agreement. 16.5 William barrels up to 2050 and up to
:07:08. > :07:12.24 billion barrels as the total value of oil. That is a lot of
:07:13. > :07:23.billions of barrels and Scotland should welcome it. That will give a
:07:24. > :07:35.lot of confidence to people who are worrying about the future. Obviously
:07:36. > :07:39.the First Minister said he listened to Sir Ian Wood, he didn't hear or
:07:40. > :07:44.he wilfully refused to hear what he was saying. You should reflect on
:07:45. > :07:49.the fact that he said he felt obliged to intervene in this debate
:07:50. > :07:56.because he was frustrated at being misrepresented and misquoted. That
:07:57. > :07:57.is an example, a hallmark of a First Minister's approach to persuading
:07:58. > :08:04.people to support his lifelong elliptical project, say whatever has
:08:05. > :08:10.to be said to get out the moment but ignore the substance of the
:08:11. > :08:15.arguments. In his warning, Sir Ian Wood envisaged far from an
:08:16. > :08:19.independent Scotland exporting energy to the rest of the United
:08:20. > :08:30.Kingdom, Scotland having to import from the rest of the United Kingdom.
:08:31. > :08:34.He said, this pre-eminent expert said, unfortunately, I think
:08:35. > :08:49.Scotland will also -- lose out on renewables. He added of the oil
:08:50. > :09:01.industry, most operators... This is about the future of our country. Not
:09:02. > :09:05.the future of your political project. He added, most operators
:09:06. > :09:11.would feel more confident if Scotland was to remain part of the
:09:12. > :09:15.UK. I ask him again, why was Ian Wood wrong to say that in the
:09:16. > :09:20.interests of children, our grandchildren and the generations to
:09:21. > :09:25.come question mark I have already pointed out that he is on the record
:09:26. > :09:29.saying that the North Sea industry would see the youth of Scotland
:09:30. > :09:37.through the lifetime, the oil reserves. She said I am misquoting
:09:38. > :09:43.Ian Wood. I have the transcript of the dead this morning. I spoke to
:09:44. > :09:47.Alex Kemp two or three times recently and he is clear up a few
:09:48. > :09:54.that 16.5 billion barrels is the right sort of range. That is exactly
:09:55. > :10:01.the point I was making. Yes, Alec Kemp said 16.5 billion up to 2050.
:10:02. > :10:09.He goes on to say it would be up to 24 billion if you take the reserve.
:10:10. > :10:17.This poor benighted country of Scotland with only 16.5 billion of
:10:18. > :10:26.oil up to 2015, worth ?1 trillion in wholesale value over that period, or
:10:27. > :10:32.if we go only 1.5 trillion, this poor benighted country visited with
:10:33. > :10:38.a great curse of 15 barrels -- 15 billion barrels of oil. Every other
:10:39. > :10:45.country in the world would give their teeth first such as
:10:46. > :10:55.substantial resource. Bass for such a substantial remorse. Incidentally,
:10:56. > :11:01.having 25% of the offshore renewable energy potential of the continent of
:11:02. > :11:13.Europe, that is also an asset, not a disadvantage for an independent
:11:14. > :11:23.Scotland. This is not a benighted country. It is a wonderful country
:11:24. > :11:33.that deserves not to have its intelligence insulted by that kind
:11:34. > :11:36.of response. It is not a debating point between me and the First
:11:37. > :11:41.Minister, it is what the senior person in the oil industry is saying
:11:42. > :11:45.about the future of our country. Let's review the record over the
:11:46. > :12:02.last two years. The First Minister said he would get legal advice. That
:12:03. > :12:06.wasn't true. Order. It has been established that that was not true.
:12:07. > :12:10.John Swinney said he was in discussions with the Bank of England
:12:11. > :12:14.on a currency union. That wasn't true. Nicola Sturgeon told the SNP
:12:15. > :12:21.conference in April that under devolution the NHS in Scotland could
:12:22. > :12:32.not be privatised. That is true, but now Alex Salmond says it isn't.
:12:33. > :12:41.Border! We will get through this a lot quicker if the applauding and
:12:42. > :12:45.jeering.. This at your last question, will you just get to it.
:12:46. > :12:52.Let me hope and optimism you will get an answer to the question.
:12:53. > :12:56.Scotland's greatest oil expert says that independence would be bad for
:12:57. > :13:00.Scotland and he is derided why his First Minister. Alex Salmond doesn't
:13:01. > :13:05.have a plan B on currency, on Europe or oil. It is the case that Scotland
:13:06. > :13:14.is not trust Alex Salmond because he is the mild without a plan. Can I
:13:15. > :13:21.just put on the record that Sir Ian Wood as I said in the answer is at
:13:22. > :13:27.respected authority, as is Alex Kemp and the range of experts like Sir
:13:28. > :13:29.Donald Mackay who have analysed the figures and produce their own
:13:30. > :13:32.estimates which are very similar indeed the predictions --
:13:33. > :13:39.projections of the Scottish Government. They say that the
:13:40. > :13:44.Treasury is missing out a fortune in black gold. It is an industry
:13:45. > :13:51.estimate. It has been used by many, many people. It was pointed out that
:13:52. > :13:58.the 16 billion barrels is up to 2,000 and eight and Alex Kemp says
:13:59. > :14:04.there is more to come and the 24 billion looks entirely plausible. On
:14:05. > :14:09.the question of the health service, if she can't bring herself to agree
:14:10. > :14:13.with me what about agreeing with Unison the union question mark
:14:14. > :14:17.revolution means they can't run down and privatise our NHS directly from
:14:18. > :14:22.London the way they are doing in England. What they can do is starved
:14:23. > :14:26.of resources. They are cutting back on the money provided to the
:14:27. > :14:33.Scottish Government and putting the Scottish budget under credit. That
:14:34. > :14:40.is the union. Then there is the question about who is to blame for
:14:41. > :14:46.what. I was cited by Ian Davidson's comments of this week. He identified
:14:47. > :14:50.that Labour's failure was the reason for the SNP success and spoke out.
:14:51. > :14:55.The reason why the SNP has done so well is more to do with the failures
:14:56. > :14:58.of the Labour Party, the lack of modernisation, the SNP have become
:14:59. > :15:03.what the Labour Party should have been. His argument was that Scottish
:15:04. > :15:07.voters moved from Glasgow to the new towns of Scotland, many of them
:15:08. > :15:28.became SNP supporters. They didn't want the politics of Labour.
:15:29. > :15:33.Davidson against Johann Lamont then the reality is that the Labour Party
:15:34. > :15:46.in Scotland do not have a first plan, never mind a second plan.
:15:47. > :15:49.Order, order. To ask the First Minister when he will next meet the
:15:50. > :15:55.prime minister. No plans in the near future. Sir Ian Wood is is the most
:15:56. > :15:59.respected as must figure in the North Sea oil industry. For nearly
:16:00. > :16:06.three years in this debate he has kept his own counsel and has stayed
:16:07. > :16:14.studiously neutral. He said yesterday he had no wish to get
:16:15. > :16:18.involved. I have just heard everything that the First Minister
:16:19. > :16:25.has teamed trying to deflect. But I am asking him why does he think Sir
:16:26. > :16:31.Ian Wood now feels compelled to speak out? He wanted to clarify that
:16:32. > :16:41.his opinion was that while reserves... Were between 16 and 17
:16:42. > :16:47.billion. That was his estimate and I think that is based on the forecasts
:16:48. > :16:54.of Professor Alan Kemp. He points out today that that applies up to
:16:55. > :17:00.2050. There are all wheels on the West Coast that will produce beyond
:17:01. > :17:06.2050. The professor has identified over 100 oil discoveries that are
:17:07. > :17:14.not in the calculations. Industry figures believe that the overall
:17:15. > :17:21.value in terms of reserves of oil, is up to 24 billion, the industry
:17:22. > :17:31.estimate. UK oil and gas individual companies, here a briefing from BP.
:17:32. > :17:39.41 billion barrels produced to the end of 2012. Potentially 27th bingo
:17:40. > :17:46.barrels -- potentially 27 billion barrels more. If major companies are
:17:47. > :17:57.saying 27, can she not ring herself to realise that whether it is 27
:17:58. > :18:02.billion beyond 2050, that is many billions of barrels of oil and in
:18:03. > :18:06.wholesale terms, that is worth trillions of pounds. Every country
:18:07. > :18:13.in the world would believe that is an enormous asset. Why do she
:18:14. > :18:24.believe it is an extraordinary liability? With all due respect,
:18:25. > :18:30.that is not why Sir Ian Wood says he felt the need to speak out. He has
:18:31. > :18:34.no world is left to conquer, he is not trying to win votes. He simply
:18:35. > :18:38.wants the Scottish people to know the facts before they make and
:18:39. > :18:45.irreversible decision. Throughout this debate, the First Minister has
:18:46. > :18:51.twisted facts and ducked hard truths. He has closed his ears to
:18:52. > :18:54.anything that does not fit his lifelong obsession of independence.
:18:55. > :19:01.But not everyone out there is like that. People want to know what is
:19:02. > :19:07.best for their children and their grandchildren. Can he not just have
:19:08. > :19:12.the decency, even at this late stage, to concede the points made
:19:13. > :19:18.that young voters must be fully aware that by the time they are
:19:19. > :19:23.middle aged, Scotland will have little offshore oil and gas
:19:24. > :19:28.production and this will seriously hit the economy, jobs and public
:19:29. > :19:36.services? Will he not concede that point? I think if she checks the
:19:37. > :19:42.record she will know that the Prime Minister has not said that. I
:19:43. > :19:46.already read out the call by Sir Ian Wood who said that someone could
:19:47. > :19:50.enter the oil industry and the North Sea would last them their lifetime.
:19:51. > :20:01.Do not misquote. This an important argument. Order, order. When we get
:20:02. > :20:06.to the position that the professor is sided as the person relied upon
:20:07. > :20:13.in terms of forecasting, and in his forecast today, he points out there
:20:14. > :20:18.is 125 known existing discoveries which in his estimate will still be
:20:19. > :20:24.underdeveloped in 2050. The fields will produce beyond 2050, can she
:20:25. > :20:33.not admit this is a long-term business? She will know that in the
:20:34. > :20:38.past, major figures in Westminster have now admitted they rather
:20:39. > :20:44.underestimated the significance of oil and gas. Denis Healey, we
:20:45. > :20:49.underplayed the value of the resource. It was part of the normal
:20:50. > :20:56.pattern to question the value of the resource. Given the track record of
:20:57. > :20:59.Westminster, isn't it was above that her government with their 10 billion
:21:00. > :21:08.barrel estimate over the next 30 years are doing exactly the same
:21:09. > :21:14.thing. Given the evidence of the last 40 years, I think most people
:21:15. > :21:20.in Scotland will say let's get the turn of using natural resources for
:21:21. > :21:28.the benefit of the Scottish people! Question number three. Duncan
:21:29. > :21:31.McNeil. I ask the First Minister how the Scottish Government will ensure
:21:32. > :21:38.that the future of ship holding on the Clyde? I met with shop stewards
:21:39. > :21:42.and I have spoken to them again this morning. I will visit the shipyards
:21:43. > :21:48.to speak to employees and I will reiterate our commit them to the
:21:49. > :21:52.future of the yard and employment. As Duncan McNeill knows, a
:21:53. > :21:56.multi-agency task force has been convened and is due to have its next
:21:57. > :22:00.meeting on Monday. I assure everyone in this chamber the government is
:22:01. > :22:07.doing and will do everything within its power to ensure continuation of
:22:08. > :22:14.ship holding on the Clyde. -- shipbuilding. I thank him for his
:22:15. > :22:17.response and I am sure he is encouraged by the number of letters
:22:18. > :22:26.that have already declared an interest. That demonstrates, quite
:22:27. > :22:30.clearly, confidence in the yard and its workforce and that will be good
:22:31. > :22:37.news for the people of Glasgow and the Inverclyde community. We all
:22:38. > :22:43.express a serious regret that a yard with such potential was allowed to
:22:44. > :22:49.close. That was brought about by the failure of an asset management
:22:50. > :22:55.company to place orders for ferries. Can we get a question, please? It is
:22:56. > :23:01.the stated position of the government that they wish to
:23:02. > :23:07.continue ship building. Is the First Minister confident that his view is
:23:08. > :23:12.shared by various companies and how will he ensure the requirement for a
:23:13. > :23:19.dozen new vessels and a multi-million pound investment, will
:23:20. > :23:24.be used effectively? When John Swinney made his statement I thought
:23:25. > :23:28.Duncan McNeil struck the wrong note in terms of how to analyse the
:23:29. > :23:34.situation. There have been substantial orders placed with this
:23:35. > :23:37.yard and substantial opportunities to get the new generation of
:23:38. > :23:44.environmentally sensitive ferries. We have great hopes that we will
:23:45. > :23:51.arrive at a situation for that can continue under new owners. Two
:23:52. > :23:56.things encourage me greatly. The first is the spirit and
:23:57. > :24:01.determination of the workforce. One thing has been unanimous from every
:24:02. > :24:04.commentator around this issue. No one has questioned the skill and
:24:05. > :24:08.dedication and application as well as the resilience of that workforce
:24:09. > :24:14.and every person in this chamber should get them maximum support.
:24:15. > :24:16.That encourages me greatly. The second thing is that I was
:24:17. > :24:23.encouraged why a statement yesterday. The state and made it
:24:24. > :24:28.quite clear that they were moving to an early deadline in terms of offers
:24:29. > :24:33.to be analysed is 5pm this evening. The statement said that deadline was
:24:34. > :24:41.to be enacted to make sure there was a chance of continuing ship holding
:24:42. > :24:44.on the Clyde. They were whole -- looking at holding the workforce and
:24:45. > :24:49.making sure there were prospects for the future. Although we are not
:24:50. > :24:53.there yet, there will still be more anxious hours and days ahead for the
:24:54. > :24:59.workforce, we have reason for substantial encouragement and that
:25:00. > :25:03.encouragement is founded on the determination of this government and
:25:04. > :25:08.the support of everyone here, at the resolve and resilience of that
:25:09. > :25:17.workforce. Question number four. Thank you. What is the government's
:25:18. > :25:23.response to the final report by the commission for a local democracy? We
:25:24. > :25:28.welcome it. Independence provides the opportunity to empower
:25:29. > :25:32.communities and authorities. We have set out our prospectus for the
:25:33. > :25:38.island community. Local government will be an integral element of an
:25:39. > :25:42.independent Scotland. It can only be guaranteed by a written constitution
:25:43. > :25:51.after independence. I thank him for his response. He is aware that this
:25:52. > :25:59.report follows a previous report in 2012 saying... Does he agree with me
:26:00. > :26:02.that the only way we can get a democratic society in Scotland is by
:26:03. > :26:07.voting yes on the 18th of September, ensuring Westminster
:26:08. > :26:13.governments do not interfere in the democratic structure that we want to
:26:14. > :26:24.see in the future? I agree with that. But the point of his question
:26:25. > :26:29.is this. There are are a range of vital institutions which could, with
:26:30. > :26:35.a written constitution, have protection which is part of the
:26:36. > :26:40.vital fabric of Scotland. That is a benefit of a written constitution.
:26:41. > :26:48.Room recently had the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. That was a
:26:49. > :26:54.fantastic success. -- we recently. New Zealand has a basic law, very
:26:55. > :26:58.important aspect, every single one of these independent countries has a
:26:59. > :27:03.written constitution which protects the rights of their citizens as well
:27:04. > :27:07.as enunciating free rights. I agree with him. The position of local
:27:08. > :27:14.government would in a written constitution in an independent
:27:15. > :27:17.Scotland. To ask the First Minister how the economic strategy of an
:27:18. > :27:27.independent Scotland would achieve growth and opportunity? As I set out
:27:28. > :27:32.previously, an independent Scotland would set out the benchmark for
:27:33. > :27:36.growth and opportunity. We have published a jobs plan and it shows
:27:37. > :27:40.how through independence we could have more and better job
:27:41. > :27:48.opportunities and help realise young -- help young people to realise
:27:49. > :27:52.their opportunities. He and his colleagues in the Conservative Party
:27:53. > :28:00.have nothing whatsoever to declare. We now know that his forecast of 60%
:28:01. > :28:06.and his corporate tax get to big business would rip ?350 million a
:28:07. > :28:13.year from public services. Will he now except that his economic policy
:28:14. > :28:17.would see a separate Scotland with a ?9 million black hole in its
:28:18. > :28:27.finances and will he apologise to the eminent opt to said
:28:28. > :28:34.privatisation in the event of a no vote would be a lie? I know it is
:28:35. > :28:38.extremely difficult for him, given his alliance with the Conservative
:28:39. > :28:42.Party, to try and reflect on the position that lots of people in
:28:43. > :28:50.Scotland agreed with the surge of support for protecting the national
:28:51. > :28:55.health service through independence. And there we have it. We come to the
:28:56. > :29:04.close of questions. We ended with discussions over it the impact of
:29:05. > :29:09.the economy on independence. Alex Salmond saying there were resources
:29:10. > :29:21.beyond estimates produced by the oil industry. His opponents took a
:29:22. > :29:51.different perspective. Firmly, good afternoon. -- from me.
:29:52. > :30:02.The stars of the summer are back on UK soil
:30:03. > :30:07.Who will produce their golden moment?