19/05/2017

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:00:27. > :00:29.Hello and welcome to The Election Wrap, our guide

:00:30. > :00:36.The Conservative leader in Scotland gives a frosty reception

:00:37. > :00:40.to the means testing of the winter fuel allowance, leaving it

:00:41. > :00:44.out of their manifesto north of the border.

:00:45. > :00:46.Will tactical voting swing it for for one

:00:47. > :00:54.Catchphrases and slogans - they might work for comedians,

:00:55. > :00:56.but are they working for the political parties?

:00:57. > :01:04.Have these phrases seeped into your brain yet?

:01:05. > :01:10.It is a choice between strong and stable leadership under the

:01:11. > :01:16.Conservatives. Britain needs strong and stable government. For the many,

:01:17. > :01:21.not the few. For the many, not the few.

:01:22. > :01:24.And we'll be discussing all the best campaign lines with Paul Waugh,

:01:25. > :01:26.Executive Editor at Huff Post UK and Kate Proctor,

:01:27. > :01:30.Political reporter from the Evening Standard.

:01:31. > :01:32.Let's catch up on the latest developments

:01:33. > :01:37.The Conservatives in Scotland have launched their manifesto

:01:38. > :01:40.with the leader of the Tories Ruth Davidson, and the Prime Minister

:01:41. > :01:43.Theresa May making a pledge to stand up to the Scottish National Party.

:01:44. > :01:46.Part of the manifesto was a protection for

:01:47. > :01:50.the Winter Fuel Payments for all older people,

:01:51. > :02:01.with no means-testing in Scotland, unlike the policy for England.

:02:02. > :02:09.We made a different choice in Scottish manifesto we believe there

:02:10. > :02:13.should be means testing. The reason we have said that if as many of your

:02:14. > :02:17.viewers will acknowledge, Scotland is a colder climate than we have a

:02:18. > :02:20.different amount of housing stock and evolution allows you to make

:02:21. > :02:25.different decisions. I want to use the money in terms of the winter

:02:26. > :02:28.fuel payments, dance out my colleagues want to put it into the

:02:29. > :02:33.health service. That is what politics are about, sometimes it is

:02:34. > :02:38.tough decisions. I say I want to keep the Winter Fuel Payment here,

:02:39. > :02:42.devolution allows me to do so. We have devolution in the United

:02:43. > :02:45.Kingdom. We have given the Scottish Government significant powers in

:02:46. > :02:49.relation to welfare and they make a number of decisions about various

:02:50. > :02:53.welfare benefits in Scotland. The decision we have made about Winter

:02:54. > :02:56.Fuel Payment is, we will continue to ensure the least well off pensioners

:02:57. > :03:00.are supported, but there is a principle of earners where you see

:03:01. > :03:06.well of pensioners getting help with their fuel bills and struggling,

:03:07. > :03:08.ordinary families not having the help available. The money released

:03:09. > :03:09.from the change in the Winter Fuel Payment will go into health and

:03:10. > :03:11.social care. Meanwhile Labour have attacked

:03:12. > :03:13.the policy of means testing John McDonnell said ten

:03:14. > :03:22.million people would be hit by Tory proposals

:03:23. > :03:24.to means-test the allowance. Labour, says axing the policy

:03:25. > :03:37.could mean people die. Yesterday the Conservative Party

:03:38. > :03:45.abandoned older people. There was a triple whammy. They're tearing up of

:03:46. > :03:49.the triple lock, the attack on the winter fuel allowance and yes, the

:03:50. > :03:53.plans on care costs where people could lose control of their homes.

:03:54. > :03:55.John McDonnell verve. The SNP say that the Conservatives

:03:56. > :03:58.would priortise a "hard Brexit" over The parties deputy leader

:03:59. > :04:01.Angus Robertson said that Theresa May came to Scotland

:04:02. > :04:03.to deliver one simple message, And it's been a difficult

:04:04. > :04:08.24 hours for Ukip. Their leader Paul Nuttall HAD been

:04:09. > :04:15.due to visit London and Essex..but Their leader Paul Nuttall HAD been

:04:16. > :04:18.due to visit London and Essex but both campaign trips were cancelled

:04:19. > :04:20.after an incident with And the Ukip leader had something

:04:21. > :04:24.of a bumpy ride during the ITV leader's debate when he struggled

:04:25. > :04:35.to remember Leanne Wood's name. Do you think they will stay there?

:04:36. > :04:47.Of course not. 6500 well-paid jobs in Wales you are prepared to lose.

:04:48. > :04:57.think Natalie is absolutely right. My name is Leanne. You have done it

:04:58. > :05:03.twice now. We need to fully integrate health care and social

:05:04. > :05:05.care. Oh dear, there were some smiles, but how embarrassingly.

:05:06. > :05:07.So let's begin with Scotland and this difference of views

:05:08. > :05:21.Paul and Kate with me. Does it matter the Conservatives are taking

:05:22. > :05:25.two different lines on this? Absolutely, I was so surprised. It

:05:26. > :05:29.shows how keen they are to get this Tory vote in Scotland. They are

:05:30. > :05:34.ahead with the over 60s in Scotland, the Tories are ahead in the over 60

:05:35. > :05:38.polling. But they felt they needed something to bring people in and

:05:39. > :05:44.bring them over. I am astonished they announced this today, it feels

:05:45. > :05:47.like such hypocrisy. Theresa May was talking about devolution and today

:05:48. > :05:50.she was talking about devolution when it suits her and the rest of

:05:51. > :05:55.the time she doesn't want to talk about it at all. Paul, Ruth Davidson

:05:56. > :06:00.saying it is called in Scotland so it is different, horses for courses.

:06:01. > :06:08.If you live in Cumbria, you might think it is quite cold in winter.

:06:09. > :06:10.There might be descents from English voters, a sense of resentment. But

:06:11. > :06:13.is what Theresa May doesn't want. She has been trying to make sure it

:06:14. > :06:20.is a United Kingdom and she stands for the whole of the country. But on

:06:21. > :06:26.day two after their manifesto Lodge, they have a pension problem. Not

:06:27. > :06:31.just the winter fuel, but social care and this so-called dementia

:06:32. > :06:37.tax. You could tell today they are worried because David Davies went on

:06:38. > :06:40.the BBC to try and attack the line. In the manifesto yesterday they

:06:41. > :06:45.talked about focusing help on the least well off when it came to the

:06:46. > :06:49.winter fuel allowance. Today, they are saying they will only take money

:06:50. > :06:53.from those who can afford it. In the middle, you have people who are very

:06:54. > :06:55.worried. We will stay with Scotland...

:06:56. > :06:58.Well the drop in the price of oil has affected Aberdeen's economy.

:06:59. > :07:00.Recent months have brought signs of a recovery but what do

:07:01. > :07:04.Our reporter Nick Eardley has been to the Aberdeen North

:07:05. > :07:16.City synonymous with oil and Gas UK an industry which brought wealth and

:07:17. > :07:23.jobs, but after a slump in the price of oil, some have been left

:07:24. > :07:30.struggling. Like here, this foodbank is one of nearly 40 in Aberdeen and

:07:31. > :07:35.is getting busier. A lot more now. It is kept going by volunteers like

:07:36. > :07:41.Dougie and Robert and they sell items to locals. The foodbank varies

:07:42. > :07:45.between 20 to 25, up to 40 to 50 individuals coming in on a daily

:07:46. > :07:51.basis. This time last year we were doing between 80 to 100 food parcels

:07:52. > :07:57.in a week. We can now do up to 150 food parcels a week. He blames

:07:58. > :08:01.welfare changes for rising demand. It is to do with the ?20,000 benefit

:08:02. > :08:12.on families which stops them claiming anything in excess of

:08:13. > :08:15.?20,000 a year. It has reduced payments for people and the amount

:08:16. > :08:17.of disposable income they have got. We travelled along union Street in

:08:18. > :08:20.Aberdeen and spoke to a local business owner. Has been a difficult

:08:21. > :08:25.time over the last three years. Not getting customers as regularly as we

:08:26. > :08:34.used to. Anything what he would like? Dean Walker is annexed verve.

:08:35. > :08:45.He is retraining oil and gasworks is to cut hair. We are not just relying

:08:46. > :08:48.on the oil and asset to and knowing how vulnerable it can be and quickly

:08:49. > :08:55.it can change. How is business to you? It has been fantastic. Would

:08:56. > :09:01.you say the economy is working to you? Absolutely. On the foodbank,

:09:02. > :09:12.those views about diversification are echoed, but John is

:09:13. > :09:16.And here is the full list of candidates standing

:09:17. > :09:37.Let's return to Scotland with our guests. We got a flavour from one

:09:38. > :09:41.part of Scotland about the economy and local issues, but we are being

:09:42. > :09:45.told that crucial to the vote in Scotland is the issue of whether

:09:46. > :09:50.there will be a second independence referendum for Scotland. How do you

:09:51. > :09:54.unpick this, Kate? The Tories were clever, they pushed it towards the

:09:55. > :09:57.SNP and said, you have to allow Brexit to bed in and then you can

:09:58. > :10:05.have your referendum. But it pushes them back onto them and the SNP have

:10:06. > :10:09.to choose the opportune timing. I just want to point out that Theresa

:10:10. > :10:14.May and Ruth Davidson when they were speaking, talked about the SNP as

:10:15. > :10:17.nationalists and nothing rouse them more than being called nationalists.

:10:18. > :10:22.I thought it was a strong line to come out with and with their strong

:10:23. > :10:29.and stable, all about dealing and then the SNP who they are trying to

:10:30. > :10:32.frame as this unwieldy bunch. We had this phrase from the Conservatives

:10:33. > :10:37.saying there needs to be public consent for any second independence

:10:38. > :10:42.referendum. We haven't had a definition of what it might mean?

:10:43. > :10:46.No, and that is why the SNP will keep pushing it. You have both sides

:10:47. > :10:55.trying to exploit the independent idea. They say they are obsessed

:10:56. > :11:00.with the constitution and exception of bread-and-butter economies and

:11:01. > :11:07.the oil economy. When you have the SNP pushing hard saying we are

:11:08. > :11:11.against a hard Brexit. For the voters, where you stand on Brexit or

:11:12. > :11:16.not, may not be the determining factor in this election. There may

:11:17. > :11:20.be other issues and they might take offence at both parties trying to

:11:21. > :11:25.ram this down their throats. The oil economy in Aberdeen, in the Tory

:11:26. > :11:29.manifesto yesterday, was this idea that Britain's North Sea will be

:11:30. > :11:34.decommissioned in future years. All these oil rigs could be a world

:11:35. > :11:38.centre the decommissioning oil rigs. It is a brand-new idea from the

:11:39. > :11:42.Conservatives. You have these voters in Scotland who don't want to leave,

:11:43. > :11:47.but they don't want to vote Tory. What happens to them? They are

:11:48. > :11:48.facing a difficult choice. It will be interesting to see how it plays

:11:49. > :11:52.out in Scotland. Smaller political parties can

:11:53. > :11:54.occasionally cause a tremor Especially when the race is tight,

:11:55. > :11:59.and a few hundred votes can So just how much tactical voting

:12:00. > :12:12.is going on this election. The weekly community cook at the

:12:13. > :12:15.Marsh Centre, run by Green councillors who are popular with

:12:16. > :12:19.eight of them on Lancaster City Council. They work and live here,

:12:20. > :12:26.they are very well liked. They do a lot for charity and they said they

:12:27. > :12:31.would do something, they usually get it done. When it comes to the

:12:32. > :12:36.general election, the local Green voter doesn't always translate, why

:12:37. > :12:39.is it? It is a waste of time, they think. They think they will get

:12:40. > :12:44.enough votes or they just don't bother. And that is the problem with

:12:45. > :12:50.the Greens here. Labour won Lancaster and feet would a tiny

:12:51. > :12:55.margin last time. Do they go with their hearts and help the

:12:56. > :13:02.Conservatives win, or do the Greens vote and get Labour in? This is a

:13:03. > :13:07.marginal constituency so it is only between Labour and the Tories. If we

:13:08. > :13:12.vote Green, we hand the seat to the Tories, as we did a few years ago.

:13:13. > :13:18.And we regret that. I am still wrestling between the Green, who I

:13:19. > :13:22.want to vote for and labour, which is the tactical vote. Sometimes that

:13:23. > :13:27.decision is batted away. When Greens are keen to block a conservative

:13:28. > :13:29.when they pull out of the race, asking supporters to swing to Labour

:13:30. > :13:44.or the Lib Dems. If the Greens stand down, those voters have

:13:45. > :13:46.got to go somewhere and if the Greens enter the competition, the

:13:47. > :13:49.voters have got to come from somewhere, so it affects the

:13:50. > :13:51.upcoming closely fought seats. So they can win or lose the seats in

:13:52. > :13:54.closely fought areas? It can have that impact. There has never been a

:13:55. > :13:58.Green MP from the north-west, but that doesn't mean they are not

:13:59. > :14:03.important. At the last election, they stood aside in Chester asking

:14:04. > :14:08.supporters to back the Labour candidate, who went on to win. This

:14:09. > :14:12.time round, they are not putting any candidates forward in the seats that

:14:13. > :14:15.are too close to call. The green vote is growing, especially in

:14:16. > :14:21.communities like the Marsh stayed. They know there is a long way to go

:14:22. > :14:22.before there are more Green MPs on the Greens seats of the House of

:14:23. > :14:27.Commons. So tactical voting

:14:28. > :14:29.and left wing pacts. It's not just the North West

:14:30. > :14:32.where parties are forming alliances In Brighton Pavilion

:14:33. > :14:34.the Liberal Democrats have agreed not to stand

:14:35. > :14:36.against the Green Party's only MP Caroline Lucas,

:14:37. > :14:39.who's fighting off a challenge Meanwhile in Hastings Rye,

:14:40. > :14:42.the Greens have pulled out to try to help Labour oust

:14:43. > :14:54.the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd. So, quite a lot of negotiating,

:14:55. > :14:58.horse trading going on. Do you think we will see more tactical voting

:14:59. > :15:03.this time round? I am not sure we are. What we're talking about, and

:15:04. > :15:08.it was clear from that clip, a tiny number of seats were majorities are

:15:09. > :15:14.tight and makes a difference, this could be a tsunami from the

:15:15. > :15:19.Conservatives and it could sweep aside all the little lifeboat people

:15:20. > :15:25.are constructing for themselves. Not enough numbers, the maths doesn't do

:15:26. > :15:31.it. Also, that report was talking about the Green party, but in the

:15:32. > :15:34.south-east, I feel like the Greens have stood aside so much, they are

:15:35. > :15:41.actually not offering the Green choice to lots of people. That might

:15:42. > :15:47.have been a tactical choice, but that option isn't even there now. I

:15:48. > :15:51.am surprised how many people split their boats and people I have talked

:15:52. > :15:55.to in north London, they go Labour for their borough but then Torrealba

:15:56. > :16:00.is because Brexit. Where I live in west London, there is peeling and

:16:01. > :16:07.Brentford and Isa worked for the Green said they will stand aside. --

:16:08. > :16:12.Ealing. Picking up on the point you made, Kate some people say it is a

:16:13. > :16:16.moral obligation and if you are party and stand for certain things,

:16:17. > :16:20.regardless of an overlap with another party, you ought to give

:16:21. > :16:24.people the right to see the candidate and it is your moral duty

:16:25. > :16:30.to field a candidate? I agree with that and that is how politics works.

:16:31. > :16:33.He want to be elected and push forward. I do feel sorry for those

:16:34. > :16:38.voters who feel disenfranchised now. They don't have their usual party to

:16:39. > :16:41.vote for. We'll have to see if you are right.

:16:42. > :16:43.The swingometer has been a regular feature of election night coverage

:16:44. > :16:55.It was designed to explain the unfolding results in visual terms.

:16:56. > :16:58.What started off as a simple hand made prop has developed using

:16:59. > :17:15.Jenny Kumah's been looking at the evolution of the device.

:17:16. > :17:20.# It don't mean nothing if it don't

:17:21. > :17:26.have that swing. If it is election night, there is a

:17:27. > :17:31.Swingometer. It first appeared in 1959 showing how movements of votes

:17:32. > :17:36.from one party to another translated into Parliamentary seats. If the

:17:37. > :17:40.swing for example is one point consistently and on the average to

:17:41. > :17:45.the Conservatives, they are not only in again, but they will have an

:17:46. > :17:51.increased majority of about 35. What started off as a crude looking

:17:52. > :17:56.cardboard model has become more sophisticated. Nowadays, it is about

:17:57. > :17:59.virtual reality. For the 2015 general election, the BBC

:18:00. > :18:05.transformed this room to show the Conservative path to power. It can

:18:06. > :18:08.be traced back to this man, 92-year-old Sir David Butler. As a

:18:09. > :18:14.student here in Oxford, he was playing around with the results of

:18:15. > :18:20.the 1945 election and decided to record the change in voting

:18:21. > :18:24.patterns. I have been desperately keen on cricket statistics. The war

:18:25. > :18:28.stopped first-class cricket and I switched to looking at elections and

:18:29. > :18:33.I played around with pasta election results. His theory led to the

:18:34. > :18:37.creation of the Swingometer and decades of commentating on election

:18:38. > :18:44.night. When ten seats were in, you could predict the final outcome. The

:18:45. > :18:49.average swing in those first seats came very near to the average swing

:18:50. > :18:54.at the end of the day. He was there at the beginning and are still

:18:55. > :18:59.alive, still analysing elections. Only this week, he started on

:19:00. > :19:04.Twitter. He has already got 5000 followers. As smaller parties have

:19:05. > :19:09.played bigger roles, more Swingometer have featured. For 2017

:19:10. > :19:12.there will be a total of five, with the first-ever showing the contest

:19:13. > :19:30.between the Conservatives and the Scottish National Party.

:19:31. > :19:40.If the geeks love their Swingometer 's, politicians love a catchphrase.

:19:41. > :19:42.But do they make you tune in, or turn off?

:19:43. > :19:51.It is a choice between strong and stable leadership under the

:19:52. > :19:54.Conservatives. Britain needs strong and stable government. Only a vote

:19:55. > :19:59.for me and my team will ensure Britain has the strong and stable

:20:00. > :20:04.leadership we need. I am proud of our manifesto for the many, not the

:20:05. > :20:10.few. For the many, not the few. Thank you very much. Nothing

:20:11. > :20:14.embodies our campaign theme, for the many not the few, better than the

:20:15. > :20:15.National Health Service. There must be a vote to change Britain's

:20:16. > :20:25.future. Paul, before we go on to catch

:20:26. > :20:32.phrases, let's pick up the issue of swing. It does muddle some people,

:20:33. > :20:36.but it can be significant? It can, it was significant when we had four

:20:37. > :20:41.parties at the next election, Ukip, the Lib Dems as well as the

:20:42. > :20:47.Conservatives and Labour, all above 10% in the polls. This time we don't

:20:48. > :20:53.have them all above 10%, but what is reverting to be almost 1950s system

:20:54. > :20:55.Labour against Tory. So the old-fashioned Swingometer people are

:20:56. > :21:01.used to might be more effective this time. It was Brexit, the swing when

:21:02. > :21:05.we got those first results coming in from Newcastle and Sunderland that

:21:06. > :21:09.started to tip us off that something had gone a bit wrong from upper

:21:10. > :21:13.pollsters were saying? Absolutely, seeing the swing on the night is

:21:14. > :21:16.such a dramatic part of any election, the physical image of its

:21:17. > :21:21.sweeping to one side. I think this time it will be the swing from Ukip

:21:22. > :21:27.to the Tories. That will be the case in so many seats across the country.

:21:28. > :21:32.In the meantime, I feel like subliminal messaging. Do people take

:21:33. > :21:41.those in, do you think? Yes. I am not sure. The spin doctor the George

:21:42. > :21:46.Bush, use to say only when the media is bored of a catchphrase or sound

:21:47. > :21:53.bite is the point when people are listening to it. A lot of people

:21:54. > :21:58.only see political news for a few minutes a week. So if that is the

:21:59. > :22:02.chance they get, they will listen to it. Some other catchphrases are the

:22:03. > :22:06.best ones who don't talk at the voters, they reflect what voters

:22:07. > :22:10.think. We have done some focus groups, and the loss of this strong

:22:11. > :22:17.and stable leadership was coming out from focus groups before Theresa May

:22:18. > :22:21.were saying it. It is working. I was talking to friends earlier today and

:22:22. > :22:25.asked them what has come through. They are not politically engaged,

:22:26. > :22:28.but they said strong and stable straightaway. They also knew the

:22:29. > :22:31.Labour won as well. They did know how they knew it. But the message is

:22:32. > :22:37.getting through. It is genius strategy. We then tried to look at

:22:38. > :22:42.some of the other parties and they are not working with slogans. If you

:22:43. > :22:46.think of the Lib Dems, the website says a vote for us can change

:22:47. > :22:52.Britain's future. But they haven't been saying it with nausea like some

:22:53. > :22:57.of the others. Ukip has a bus with their five pledges on. It is all a

:22:58. > :23:00.bit blancmange from the others. That is why they are not putting too in

:23:01. > :23:05.the polls because they don't have a clear definition and that is

:23:06. > :23:09.everything in politics. Jeremy Corbyn this week has made Labour

:23:10. > :23:14.finally a tax and spend a Hollick party which is what a lot of

:23:15. > :23:17.supporters have wanted. Whether it got through to the voters on the

:23:18. > :23:19.night of... There has been an uplift in the polls for Labour. It could be

:23:20. > :23:34.getting through. Monday is cut off day for voter

:23:35. > :23:40.registration. What do we know of the importance of turnout? It is

:23:41. > :23:46.absolutely vital. Look what happened with Brexit. It was such an enormous

:23:47. > :23:51.turnout and everybody was so engaged. 72% turnout. Turnout

:23:52. > :23:58.matters but we still have a problem with engaging with young voters and

:23:59. > :24:03.that is why labour and Lib Dems want 16 plus voters. If you analyse

:24:04. > :24:09.turnout, who turns out in terms of the demographic and the age can make

:24:10. > :24:13.a difference as to who polls well? Yes, in some seats, it can help you

:24:14. > :24:19.protect a seat or attack a seed. The youth vote in some university cities

:24:20. > :24:23.has a role. But there is an iron rule but young people aren't as

:24:24. > :24:28.interested in voting as older voters, unfortunately that has been

:24:29. > :24:33.so for so long. A lot of politicians want to change it, Jeremy Corbyn

:24:34. > :24:39.wants to change it. Thank you both for your time and being with us

:24:40. > :24:43.tonight. It has been a busy week. That is the end of the first week of

:24:44. > :24:48.The Election Wrap. I hope it has given you a flavour of what is to

:24:49. > :24:52.come. We will be back on Monday. The same every night at 7:30pm and it

:24:53. > :24:57.gives you a sense of what has been going on. But here is a few things

:24:58. > :25:08.that gave us food for thought. Feast your eyes on this.

:25:09. > :25:16.Where you interested in politics when you are 16? No, just boys. If

:25:17. > :25:26.you don't read the manifesto, you don't know what they are going to

:25:27. > :25:30.do. What about you? Hello, I am sorry to interrupt you, I know you

:25:31. > :25:35.are having your ice cream is. 216-year-olds eat a lot of cheese?

:25:36. > :25:48.Surprising what they do eat. Excellent. Spent all the money...

:25:49. > :25:51.Pack it in. Ayew well? Very good.