Episode 18

0:00:02 > 0:00:03Today on The Big Questions, globalisation -

0:00:03 > 0:00:06will it make the world a better place for all of us?

0:00:16 > 0:00:18APPLAUSE

0:00:19 > 0:00:23Good morning! I'm Nicky Campbell, welcome to The Big Questions.

0:00:23 > 0:00:26Today we're back at Oasis Academy, MediaCityUK in Salford

0:00:26 > 0:00:30to debate one very big question - will globalisation make the world

0:00:30 > 0:00:31a better place?

0:00:31 > 0:00:34Welcome, everybody, to The Big Questions.

0:00:37 > 0:00:42Right. In the days of empire, Britain ran a global economy.

0:00:42 > 0:00:46Now we are increasingly at the mercy of one that is outside

0:00:46 > 0:00:50the control of any nation state or international body.

0:00:50 > 0:00:54Globalisation has put the world's biggest multinational corporations

0:00:54 > 0:00:57into the driving seat of international trade,

0:00:57 > 0:01:01technological progress and worldwide prosperity.

0:01:01 > 0:01:05The companies and the people who own shares in them or work

0:01:05 > 0:01:07for them may be doing very nicely,

0:01:07 > 0:01:10but it's harder to share their huge wealth through tax across

0:01:10 > 0:01:12the wider societies where they operate,

0:01:12 > 0:01:14or to get them to pay for the costs

0:01:14 > 0:01:17they impose on the environment or the benefits they take

0:01:17 > 0:01:18from spending by governments

0:01:18 > 0:01:21on education, health and infrastructure.

0:01:21 > 0:01:24Well, to debate whether globalisation is good for all of us,

0:01:24 > 0:01:26we have assembled an array - what an array -

0:01:26 > 0:01:29of distinguished economists, pioneering environmentalists,

0:01:29 > 0:01:31seasoned writers and commentators

0:01:31 > 0:01:32and campaigners for workers' rights,

0:01:32 > 0:01:35and against exploiting global poverty.

0:01:35 > 0:01:39And you can join in too on Twitter or online by logging onto...

0:01:42 > 0:01:44And follow the links to the online discussion.

0:01:44 > 0:01:48Lots of encouragement, contributions from our excellent audience

0:01:48 > 0:01:51here in Salford, which was once the hub of global trade

0:01:51 > 0:01:53in the days of empire.

0:01:53 > 0:01:57Will globalisation make the world a better place?

0:01:57 > 0:02:00I wonder if we're at a transitional point in human history,

0:02:00 > 0:02:04Guy Standing, because of course in the 19th century

0:02:04 > 0:02:09the industrial proletariat - oppressed, exploited -

0:02:09 > 0:02:13Marxism was a response to that cry of rage, do you think there

0:02:13 > 0:02:16are any comparisons, are we at a similar transitional point?

0:02:16 > 0:02:18There are comparisons.

0:02:18 > 0:02:23I think today we are in the middle point of a global transformation.

0:02:23 > 0:02:26The early phase of globalisation,

0:02:26 > 0:02:30what you have described as globalisation, began in the 1980s

0:02:30 > 0:02:35with what we economics professors call "neoliberalism".

0:02:35 > 0:02:37It wasn't called that then.

0:02:37 > 0:02:43But it was dominated by an ideology of believing in free markets,

0:02:43 > 0:02:49privatisation, commodification and the dismantling of institutions

0:02:49 > 0:02:51that stood against the market,

0:02:51 > 0:02:54what we call social solidarity institutions.

0:02:54 > 0:02:55And that period,

0:02:55 > 0:03:00where Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were the instruments

0:03:00 > 0:03:02of putting that into force,

0:03:02 > 0:03:08gradually gave way to a domination by the big financial corporations,

0:03:08 > 0:03:12the Goldman Sachses and the JP Morgan

0:03:12 > 0:03:15and so on in Wall Street, and at the same time,

0:03:15 > 0:03:18it's not quite correct to say that this

0:03:18 > 0:03:22has been out of control by international institutions.

0:03:22 > 0:03:27What happened is, the architecture of globalisation changed.

0:03:27 > 0:03:30I've worked in Geneva for many years, and

0:03:30 > 0:03:35it moved from a point where the World Trade Organisation was

0:03:35 > 0:03:40one of the midwives of globalisation to the point where Wipo -

0:03:40 > 0:03:44the World Intellectual Property Organization - has gradually

0:03:44 > 0:03:48been used to entrench intellectual property rights.

0:03:48 > 0:03:52So we've actually moved from that neoliberalism

0:03:52 > 0:03:55into a period of what I call rentier capitalism,

0:03:55 > 0:03:59where the returns to property ownership are triumphant

0:03:59 > 0:04:02over free markets, and in particular,

0:04:02 > 0:04:07intellectual property rights have multiplied hugely since 1995,

0:04:07 > 0:04:10giving billions and billions of dollars,

0:04:10 > 0:04:14euros or pounds to the plutocratic corporations that own

0:04:14 > 0:04:16the patents and the copyrights and so on,

0:04:16 > 0:04:19and taking things out of the market, so at the moment,

0:04:19 > 0:04:22it's a lie to say we have a free-market economy,

0:04:22 > 0:04:27but to conclude the point, I think globally...

0:04:27 > 0:04:31globalisation has benefited millions and millions of people,

0:04:31 > 0:04:33raising their incomes,

0:04:33 > 0:04:36but in Western Europe and in Britain in particular,

0:04:36 > 0:04:40we have actually seen declining real wages, stagnant real wages...

0:04:40 > 0:04:42- OK.- ..and declining living standards.

0:04:42 > 0:04:44I want to take it to the last point.

0:04:44 > 0:04:47It's so fascinating what you said, and we've got so much to get into,

0:04:47 > 0:04:52and there are so many profound implications to all of this.

0:04:52 > 0:04:57Linda Yueh, just on that last point of Guy's,

0:04:57 > 0:05:01take it to the streets, take it out to our viewers, globalisation,

0:05:01 > 0:05:05in what ways have they won - or will win -

0:05:05 > 0:05:08and in what ways are they the losers?

0:05:10 > 0:05:11I think for people in Britain

0:05:11 > 0:05:13there have been benefits from globalisation,

0:05:13 > 0:05:16but there are also those who have been left behind by this process.

0:05:16 > 0:05:19So globalisation, if you think of it as opening up

0:05:19 > 0:05:22to the transmission of ideas, of people,

0:05:22 > 0:05:26of resources across national borders, I think there are reasons

0:05:26 > 0:05:30to think we have benefited from, say, technology from America.

0:05:30 > 0:05:35Well, for instance, take the iPhone, or any smartphone. 20 years ago...

0:05:35 > 0:05:37- It's revolutionised the world. - Exactly.

0:05:37 > 0:05:4320 years ago, Nicky, only a fifth of the Western world had access

0:05:43 > 0:05:46to a mobile phone, 1% of the developing world.

0:05:46 > 0:05:48Today, I would venture a guess everyone here

0:05:48 > 0:05:51has some type of mobile phone and device,

0:05:51 > 0:05:55so I think in that way, an American product made in China,

0:05:55 > 0:05:59or a Finnish product that's been made in Eastern Europe,

0:05:59 > 0:06:00I think we have benefited from that,

0:06:00 > 0:06:05but that's not to say that everyone has benefited equally,

0:06:05 > 0:06:07because globalisation is tied up

0:06:07 > 0:06:09with structural change in the economy.

0:06:09 > 0:06:12So we've had deindustrialisation,

0:06:12 > 0:06:17we've had issues around those who have benefited more

0:06:17 > 0:06:20from this process, owners of capital, I would agree with that,

0:06:20 > 0:06:24and those who have felt their incomes squeezed and are

0:06:24 > 0:06:28working in sectors in which Britain no longer produces as much,

0:06:28 > 0:06:34and I think for globalisation and for us to reap the benefits

0:06:34 > 0:06:36of globalisation, I think we have to address

0:06:36 > 0:06:37those who are left behind.

0:06:37 > 0:06:40But not to forget that we in Britain,

0:06:40 > 0:06:43especially after Brexit, talk a lot about being global,

0:06:43 > 0:06:47being open, because being the world's fifth biggest economy

0:06:47 > 0:06:51requires being a stakeholder in this global system

0:06:51 > 0:06:52and actually working to improve it.

0:06:52 > 0:06:55And just very quickly, in the rest of the world,

0:06:55 > 0:06:58thinking about audiences beyond Britain,

0:06:58 > 0:07:01a billion people have been lifted out of poverty since 1990.

0:07:01 > 0:07:03We are actually at a historic point,

0:07:03 > 0:07:08where one in ten of the people in the world live in extreme poverty,

0:07:08 > 0:07:09on less than 1.90 a day,

0:07:09 > 0:07:13adjusted for what a dollar buys in that country.

0:07:13 > 0:07:15We have actually not been at this point before,

0:07:15 > 0:07:18and that has to do with the opening up of the emerging markets,

0:07:18 > 0:07:21like China, India, Eastern Europe.

0:07:21 > 0:07:23So I think, overall,

0:07:23 > 0:07:25we are living through a tremendous period of change,

0:07:25 > 0:07:27and I think for all of us in this country,

0:07:27 > 0:07:31it is about how we can put in institutions to manage that change

0:07:31 > 0:07:34so it can be shared more equitably and have more buy-in in the future.

0:07:34 > 0:07:37And Katy Wright from Oxfam, it's lifted people out of poverty

0:07:37 > 0:07:39in a way we could not have imagined, more than anything

0:07:39 > 0:07:43ever has or will, and that's a tremendous positive of it,

0:07:43 > 0:07:46but if I go back to our friend Karl Marx,

0:07:46 > 0:07:48who we mentioned earlier on,

0:07:48 > 0:07:52he did talk about the spread of capitalism across the globe

0:07:52 > 0:07:56in search of new markets, that has absolutely happened,

0:07:56 > 0:07:58what he didn't predict was what I've just said,

0:07:58 > 0:08:01that so many people would be lifted out of poverty.

0:08:01 > 0:08:03How do you see it?

0:08:03 > 0:08:08I think that absolutely has to be accepted and recognised

0:08:08 > 0:08:11that you need drivers of economic growth if people are going to

0:08:11 > 0:08:13lift themselves out of poverty, and as Linda said,

0:08:13 > 0:08:16we have seen people being lifted out of poverty.

0:08:16 > 0:08:19But there are several things to say.

0:08:19 > 0:08:23The first is, you're talking about lifting someone up from

0:08:23 > 0:08:251.90 a day to just over that, and then you say,

0:08:25 > 0:08:27"Right, they're out of poverty, job done."

0:08:27 > 0:08:29APPLAUSE

0:08:29 > 0:08:33A colleague of mine is just back from working with

0:08:33 > 0:08:35an Oxfam programme in Myanmar,

0:08:35 > 0:08:38so he's talking to four sisters and a cousin

0:08:38 > 0:08:41who work in one of Myanmar's export processing zones,

0:08:41 > 0:08:43so making garments in the garment industry.

0:08:43 > 0:08:45They live in a room,

0:08:45 > 0:08:49you can't ignore the smell of sewage outside their tiny room in the city.

0:08:49 > 0:08:51They're earning 2.80 a day,

0:08:51 > 0:08:54which isn't enough to live on, especially if they get sick.

0:08:54 > 0:08:55But they don't get sick leave,

0:08:55 > 0:08:59they've nothing to pay for medicines, they work six hours a day

0:08:59 > 0:09:0411 days a week, so they give their whole lives for this 2.80 a day,

0:09:04 > 0:09:09which is called an opportunity - which it is, in relative sense.

0:09:09 > 0:09:11And this isn't an accident,

0:09:11 > 0:09:15this is exactly how these industries are designed to work.

0:09:15 > 0:09:18- And it's the garments we are happy to buy, isn't it?- Exactly.

0:09:18 > 0:09:21And also, they know how we are living more than ever before,

0:09:21 > 0:09:25don't they? Because they see it in the way we communicate now.

0:09:25 > 0:09:27Well, absolutely, there is this idea - go to the city,

0:09:27 > 0:09:31- get this opportunity... - And they want those opportunities.

0:09:31 > 0:09:34Of course they do, because it's better than nothing,

0:09:34 > 0:09:38but there's a fascinating excerpt from the Asian Development Bank -

0:09:38 > 0:09:41so an organisation that is supposed to help people get out of poverty,

0:09:41 > 0:09:44and it's talking about Cambodia's export processing zones,

0:09:44 > 0:09:48and saying, "These jobs are absolutely fitted for women.

0:09:48 > 0:09:50"They have the nimble fingers and patience for these kind

0:09:50 > 0:09:53"of tasks and they don't strike and disrupt production."

0:09:53 > 0:09:56You can imagine that being said about children here

0:09:56 > 0:09:59in Manchester 200 years ago, working in the factories,

0:09:59 > 0:10:02and this is the explicit policy, and it comes...

0:10:02 > 0:10:05Globalisation and opening up, absolutely a good thing,

0:10:05 > 0:10:07but when it's married to these kind of policies

0:10:07 > 0:10:08that Guy was talking about,

0:10:08 > 0:10:11wrapped up in the neoliberalism agenda,

0:10:11 > 0:10:13that's when you get...

0:10:13 > 0:10:15It's basically a really missed opportunity when it could

0:10:15 > 0:10:17have taken a lot more people out of poverty.

0:10:17 > 0:10:20I think we should be very, very careful about saying,

0:10:20 > 0:10:22"Well, that's just a billion people."

0:10:22 > 0:10:25A billion people who can send their children to a better school,

0:10:25 > 0:10:28who can plan for the future, who can put money away in case they

0:10:28 > 0:10:30get sick when they couldn't have done that before.

0:10:30 > 0:10:33I think we have to be very careful about treating people

0:10:33 > 0:10:36like statistics, because they're not, they're real people.

0:10:36 > 0:10:38I really, really disagree with Guy's numbers, actually.

0:10:38 > 0:10:41I think if you look at the data, the official data,

0:10:41 > 0:10:44the UK has become much richer in the last 30 years.

0:10:44 > 0:10:47We have become about twice as rich as we were, in real terms,

0:10:47 > 0:10:49in inflation-adjusted terms,

0:10:49 > 0:10:52and that doesn't even account for how much cheaper things are,

0:10:52 > 0:10:54because wages and incomes and living standards are both about

0:10:54 > 0:10:57how much you earn and what you can buy with that,

0:10:57 > 0:11:00and we know that trade is best for people at the bottom.

0:11:00 > 0:11:02Trade is profoundly good, it's most good,

0:11:02 > 0:11:04for people at the bottom of society,

0:11:04 > 0:11:07because it means that better food is available to them

0:11:07 > 0:11:10for less money, better clothes are available to them for less money,

0:11:10 > 0:11:13and the data is really, really striking.

0:11:13 > 0:11:14Come back quickly on that, Guy.

0:11:14 > 0:11:16Guy, if you would just let me finish.

0:11:16 > 0:11:19People at the bottom are about 70% better off,

0:11:19 > 0:11:22or 170% better off than they would be without trade.

0:11:22 > 0:11:24People at the top are only about 30% better off

0:11:24 > 0:11:26than they would be without trade.

0:11:26 > 0:11:28Trade is for the poor, and it's lifting not just the poor

0:11:28 > 0:11:32in the developing world up, but the poor in our country up as well.

0:11:32 > 0:11:34SCATTERED APPLAUSE

0:11:34 > 0:11:37- This could be an interesting discussion.- Well, I hope so!

0:11:37 > 0:11:43I think that most of us here would be in favour of globalisation

0:11:43 > 0:11:46in terms of opening up markets,

0:11:46 > 0:11:49which has certainly increased the growth rate

0:11:49 > 0:11:51of China and India and so on.

0:11:51 > 0:11:53I think if you look at the case of Britain,

0:11:53 > 0:11:57and across the world, in fact, what's been happening is that

0:11:57 > 0:11:59the share of income being created

0:11:59 > 0:12:01going to capital has been shooting up,

0:12:01 > 0:12:03the share going to labour has been shooting down.

0:12:03 > 0:12:08And if you look at the United States, Germany, France,

0:12:08 > 0:12:10I've just come from Spain,

0:12:10 > 0:12:15average real wages have been stagnant for 30 years.

0:12:15 > 0:12:18- That's not true.- It's a fact. - Look at the official data,

0:12:18 > 0:12:21go onto the ONS website and they will tell you you're wrong.

0:12:21 > 0:12:23I assure you. And what has been happening

0:12:23 > 0:12:25is an extraordinary phenomenon, is that when

0:12:25 > 0:12:29productivity goes up, it used to be the case that average wages went up.

0:12:29 > 0:12:31But in numerous countries,

0:12:31 > 0:12:35productivity has been going up and real wages have been stagnating.

0:12:35 > 0:12:38So we have an income distribution problem...

0:12:38 > 0:12:40Why is that happening, then?

0:12:40 > 0:12:42We'll get Sam back in a minute, but in a nutshell?

0:12:42 > 0:12:47In a nutshell, the returns to property - financial property,

0:12:47 > 0:12:51intellectual property and physical property - have been going up,

0:12:51 > 0:12:55the tax rates on profits have been going down,

0:12:55 > 0:12:58whereas the returns to labour have been going down,

0:12:58 > 0:13:01and it is partly to do with the technological revolution

0:13:01 > 0:13:07that's taking place, partly to do with labour market flexibility,

0:13:07 > 0:13:10which has weakened the bargaining position of people

0:13:10 > 0:13:12relying on wages for their earnings.

0:13:12 > 0:13:14OK, Sam, do you want to come back in a minute?

0:13:14 > 0:13:17But, Rose, I see you were bouncing to come in there.

0:13:17 > 0:13:19I'd like to pick up on the two examples of the goods that

0:13:19 > 0:13:23are available to us, which is the clothing and the mobile phones.

0:13:23 > 0:13:28For example, with the clothing, the downward pressure on wages

0:13:28 > 0:13:32is really affecting people in many different countries.

0:13:32 > 0:13:37In Myanmar, they're competing particularly with Cambodia

0:13:37 > 0:13:41to lower wage costs in order to produce the clothing cheaply,

0:13:41 > 0:13:46so you get this race to the bottom, which is a key factor

0:13:46 > 0:13:51in globalisation, and as well as having lower labour costs,

0:13:51 > 0:13:55you've got tremendous public expenditure on

0:13:55 > 0:13:58the infrastructure to support these corporations,

0:13:58 > 0:14:01like these special economic zones in Myanmar. I gather there's

0:14:01 > 0:14:04a new one coming, even bigger, and it will be public expenditure,

0:14:04 > 0:14:08with lucrative contracts to the corporations to build the ports,

0:14:08 > 0:14:11the roads, the warehouses, etc.

0:14:11 > 0:14:16So you've got the public sector supporting globalisation

0:14:16 > 0:14:18but often getting very low wages in return,

0:14:18 > 0:14:21and with the mobile phones you have got...

0:14:21 > 0:14:25Tends to be scouring the globe for low-cost minerals,

0:14:25 > 0:14:29where it can be the case now that the tax incentives

0:14:29 > 0:14:32and the other subsidies to the corporations that are

0:14:32 > 0:14:36extracting the minerals, they can be not...just not making

0:14:36 > 0:14:39a revenue from the exports, but can actually be making a net loss.

0:14:39 > 0:14:42And then you've got downward pressure on wages,

0:14:42 > 0:14:43terribly, as well.

0:14:43 > 0:14:45And huge environmental issues as well.

0:14:45 > 0:14:48Linda, this is bad for a lot of people,

0:14:48 > 0:14:52but what about the argument that it's better than it was before

0:14:52 > 0:14:54and it's better than it otherwise would have been?

0:14:54 > 0:14:57I think that's exactly probably the position that

0:14:57 > 0:15:00a lot of economists would say -

0:15:00 > 0:15:02that the opening up of the global economy...

0:15:02 > 0:15:05Just think about the opposite scenario where you had

0:15:05 > 0:15:07a world divided by the Iron Curtain,

0:15:07 > 0:15:11you had a world where countries looked inward

0:15:11 > 0:15:16rather than engaging externally, so I completely agree,

0:15:16 > 0:15:18there are huge distributional impact,

0:15:18 > 0:15:20especially on wages, in traded sectors,

0:15:20 > 0:15:24and I think of course the job isn't done on poverty.

0:15:24 > 0:15:27I think that line is quite arbitrary about extreme poverty,

0:15:27 > 0:15:31but it is also worth stressing that this kind of progress

0:15:31 > 0:15:34has been possible through globalisation and the combination

0:15:34 > 0:15:39of many, many other things, including technology,

0:15:39 > 0:15:45but that doesn't mean that we should say it's all good or bad.

0:15:45 > 0:15:47For every good economic gain,

0:15:47 > 0:15:50we have to think about the consequences, the left behind,

0:15:50 > 0:15:54the downward wage pressure, the impact on the environment.

0:15:54 > 0:15:58All of those things pose a policy challenge as to how

0:15:58 > 0:16:01you address that, but we should never think the world today

0:16:01 > 0:16:04is not as good as it was in the 1980s,

0:16:04 > 0:16:09before the real opening up of many, many economies in the world -

0:16:09 > 0:16:10with a couple of exceptions.

0:16:10 > 0:16:13I'm not going to say everyone is there, North Korea, for instance,

0:16:13 > 0:16:16has not opened up, and that might be an example of a country...

0:16:16 > 0:16:19We probably shouldn't spend too much time on it!

0:16:19 > 0:16:21LAUGHTER

0:16:21 > 0:16:23There are countries that haven't opened up.

0:16:23 > 0:16:26David, I will come to you in a second.

0:16:26 > 0:16:29But, Tom, I suppose what some people are crying for here is -

0:16:29 > 0:16:33what's the word? - compassionate capitalism?

0:16:33 > 0:16:37Compassionate globalisation, or is that a contradiction in terms?

0:16:37 > 0:16:40Well, I think it's just not really what we should be focused on.

0:16:40 > 0:16:43One of the big problems, especially in relation to the Third World,

0:16:43 > 0:16:46is this obsession with things like sustainability.

0:16:46 > 0:16:49Sustainable development, and the form that often takes

0:16:49 > 0:16:52is by various intergovernmental bodies trying to suppress

0:16:52 > 0:16:54the things which generate wealth,

0:16:54 > 0:16:56which generate new industrial revolutions,

0:16:56 > 0:16:59and I think one of the big problems that happens in this debate

0:16:59 > 0:17:02is that what gets grouped together as globalisation is seen as

0:17:02 > 0:17:04this kind of deterministic, impersonal force,

0:17:04 > 0:17:07- whereas a lot of the economic problems...- Inexorable as well.

0:17:07 > 0:17:09Exactly. And a lot of the economic problems we experience,

0:17:09 > 0:17:12either in Britain or in countries around the world,

0:17:12 > 0:17:14have a lot more to do with what's going on domestically,

0:17:14 > 0:17:16and are a matter, whether it's in terms

0:17:16 > 0:17:19of agitating for more wages or, in this country,

0:17:19 > 0:17:22I think the big issue we need to confront is

0:17:22 > 0:17:25reckoning with our flat-lining productivity and low pay.

0:17:25 > 0:17:28It just treats all these things as if they are deterministic,

0:17:28 > 0:17:31impersonal forces that we have no control over whatsoever.

0:17:31 > 0:17:34Both sides of the debate sometimes assume that it's

0:17:34 > 0:17:37entirely outside forces which shape this, whereas I think we need to,

0:17:37 > 0:17:39particularly post-Brexit,

0:17:39 > 0:17:41we've got an opportunity to bring that discussion back home.

0:17:41 > 0:17:46So, David, have we taken back control here,

0:17:46 > 0:17:50or are we kind of a cork bobbing on the sea?

0:17:50 > 0:17:52- Well, a bit of both. - NICKY LAUGHS

0:17:52 > 0:17:58I think globalisation is not a force of nature,

0:17:58 > 0:18:03it is a man-made process, lots of man-made processes that have

0:18:03 > 0:18:08been going on, and of course, it creates great dilemmas.

0:18:08 > 0:18:10The dilemma that we have already talked about,

0:18:10 > 0:18:12the fact that it's made everybody richer,

0:18:12 > 0:18:16it's made the poor particularly a lot richer in recent years,

0:18:16 > 0:18:20with extreme poverty falling to below 10% of the global population.

0:18:20 > 0:18:25These are enormous achievements, but it has also,

0:18:25 > 0:18:27particularly in the rich world,

0:18:27 > 0:18:30changed the atmosphere pretty dramatically.

0:18:30 > 0:18:34And the group that has done least well out of globalisation

0:18:34 > 0:18:37are people on middle and low incomes in rich countries,

0:18:37 > 0:18:43and that is where European and American populism has risen from.

0:18:43 > 0:18:45And what has been going on is,

0:18:45 > 0:18:50we have moved into a much more intrusive form of globalisation.

0:18:50 > 0:18:53We've had different forms of globalisation going back

0:18:53 > 0:18:56hundreds of years, as you said right at the beginning,

0:18:56 > 0:18:59the British Empire was a form of globalisation.

0:18:59 > 0:19:01But if you look back at the 1970s,

0:19:01 > 0:19:04we had something called the Gatt rules.

0:19:04 > 0:19:06And this was mainly between rich countries,

0:19:06 > 0:19:09it was mainly for manufacturing goods, there were lots of

0:19:09 > 0:19:11national vetoes to the international rules

0:19:11 > 0:19:14- that were laid down.- General agreements on tariffs and trade.

0:19:14 > 0:19:17We then moved to the WTO and it became much more intrusive

0:19:17 > 0:19:19- on national sovereignty.- Yes.

0:19:19 > 0:19:21And at the same time, we have the same thing in Europe.

0:19:21 > 0:19:25We echoed and reflected a similar process in the European Union.

0:19:25 > 0:19:29It became much more intrusive, with the single market,

0:19:29 > 0:19:32with enlargement in particular, which, I think, in retrospect,

0:19:32 > 0:19:34it turns out to have been an enormous mistake

0:19:34 > 0:19:37and is the reason why we are now leaving the European Union,

0:19:37 > 0:19:38even though, ironically,

0:19:38 > 0:19:40Britain was one of the great promoters of enlargement.

0:19:40 > 0:19:45Let me just give you one example of how it has intruded on things

0:19:45 > 0:19:51that people thought of as part of their national sacred control.

0:19:51 > 0:19:55It's immigration and freedom of movement.

0:19:55 > 0:19:58Going back to post-colonial immigration, in the post-war period,

0:19:58 > 0:20:02it wasn't popular to begin with but people got used to it,

0:20:02 > 0:20:07and in the '80s and '90s, there was a kind of settlement,

0:20:07 > 0:20:10a kind of agreement that the political class

0:20:10 > 0:20:15reduced the numbers and the population accepted it.

0:20:15 > 0:20:18And that is what happened. Numbers came down quite sharply

0:20:18 > 0:20:20in the '80s and '90s.

0:20:20 > 0:20:22Now, we move to the European immigration,

0:20:22 > 0:20:25starting in 2004, we were expecting 15,000 people a year to come,

0:20:25 > 0:20:28in fact, about a million and a half people came

0:20:28 > 0:20:31over a four or five year period. Many, many more than expected...

0:20:31 > 0:20:33And Tony Blair acknowledges his own mistakes.

0:20:33 > 0:20:35And people looked to Parliament to say, "We don't like this,

0:20:35 > 0:20:39"we're not against immigration, we just don't want it on this scale."

0:20:39 > 0:20:42And Parliament was unable to do anything about it,

0:20:42 > 0:20:46and that is the dilemma, that we have a much more intrusive form

0:20:46 > 0:20:50of globalisation and so much has been taken out of politics.

0:20:50 > 0:20:53So much has been depoliticised and handed over to technocrats.

0:20:53 > 0:20:56There is a huge elephant in the room here that people have

0:20:56 > 0:20:58sort of hinted at, which is technological change.

0:20:58 > 0:21:01We are living through the largest technological change

0:21:01 > 0:21:03in history since the Industrial Revolution,

0:21:03 > 0:21:06and almost nobody is aware of how much it's changing our lives.

0:21:06 > 0:21:09One estimate says that nine out of the ten manufacturing jobs

0:21:09 > 0:21:14that are destroyed are not destroyed by globalisation or trade,

0:21:14 > 0:21:16they are destroyed by technology, by us being able to

0:21:16 > 0:21:18roboticise manufacturing, and in fact,

0:21:18 > 0:21:21the UK manufactures more than it ever has,

0:21:21 > 0:21:23we just do it with far fewer workers.

0:21:23 > 0:21:26But the reason that's so important is because in our history

0:21:26 > 0:21:30we have misinterpreted change like this and we have tried to stop it

0:21:30 > 0:21:33and thrown up tariffs, and exactly what that did was hurt the poor.

0:21:33 > 0:21:36And at the end of the 19th century,

0:21:36 > 0:21:38that's what drove the demand for communism,

0:21:38 > 0:21:40for fascism and for all of the things that we are facing at

0:21:40 > 0:21:43the moment that we really, really don't want to come back.

0:21:43 > 0:21:45- We have...- We have to recognise it's technology

0:21:45 > 0:21:47driving this change and that is inexorable,

0:21:47 > 0:21:49that's something we can't stop.

0:21:49 > 0:21:50I want to hear from the audience,

0:21:50 > 0:21:52then we're going to talk about the cultural challenges,

0:21:52 > 0:21:54which you've led us onto nicely,

0:21:54 > 0:21:56talking about the immigration over the years.

0:21:56 > 0:21:59Does anybody want to say something? You wanted to say something about...

0:21:59 > 0:22:02Brief comments about globalisation, what it means to you. Yes.

0:22:02 > 0:22:04Well, I speak as a trade unionist,

0:22:04 > 0:22:08and rather than the corporate argument, I am more concerned

0:22:08 > 0:22:12about the wellbeing of the workforce internationally.

0:22:12 > 0:22:14I'm pretty active within the TUC,

0:22:14 > 0:22:18and the British TUC have been very effective in working with

0:22:18 > 0:22:22the ILO and addressing the exploitation of labour,

0:22:22 > 0:22:25even the exploitation of the environment

0:22:25 > 0:22:26right throughout the world.

0:22:26 > 0:22:28And you mentioned earlier, Nicky,

0:22:28 > 0:22:32you quoted Marx, I think Marx is right in many ways,

0:22:32 > 0:22:36stand up for all, all for one and all for all,

0:22:36 > 0:22:39I think we should do that.

0:22:39 > 0:22:42This argument is now an international argument.

0:22:42 > 0:22:46We have seen even in our own country, zero-hour contracts,

0:22:46 > 0:22:47the exploitation,

0:22:47 > 0:22:51complete lack of health and safety and the very basics that we take...

0:22:51 > 0:22:53I just want to move on, has globalisation made that worse?

0:22:53 > 0:22:55Is it exacerbating all those problems?

0:22:55 > 0:22:59I think globalisation, having exploited even

0:22:59 > 0:23:02the indigenous peoples in the countries like South America...

0:23:02 > 0:23:04Anyone else? Just a quick...

0:23:04 > 0:23:09We'll go for you first, then I'll come to you later on. Quick point.

0:23:09 > 0:23:12Yes, the downside of globalisation has to be

0:23:12 > 0:23:15multinational corporations.

0:23:15 > 0:23:19The downside of this, they are, as the gentleman said,

0:23:19 > 0:23:23they are exploiting the labour, child labourers,

0:23:23 > 0:23:27the people who are losing in globalisation.

0:23:27 > 0:23:29In terms of multicultural companies,

0:23:29 > 0:23:35those people who are actually making the nice leather Nike shoes,

0:23:35 > 0:23:38pair of shoes.

0:23:38 > 0:23:40And these people are really losing,

0:23:40 > 0:23:45and if you see that Nike is the winner, the consumer also is

0:23:45 > 0:23:49the winner of the globalisation, but those people in the very bottom...

0:23:49 > 0:23:52Yeah, because of these corporations, and we will address this,

0:23:52 > 0:23:53because they are incredibly...

0:23:53 > 0:23:56I mean, they're more powerful than many countries.

0:23:56 > 0:24:00- Can I...?- I want to move it on if I may, Guy.

0:24:00 > 0:24:03Because we want to talk about the cultural issues...

0:24:03 > 0:24:06I just wanted to make a point about the technological revolution.

0:24:06 > 0:24:08- We...- We've past that one?

0:24:08 > 0:24:10I tell you what, we might come back to it when we talk about

0:24:10 > 0:24:13solutions in the future, which is going to be our last section.

0:24:13 > 0:24:16- Keep that thought, if you would.- I'll keep it.

0:24:16 > 0:24:18So, yeah, Maya, we haven't heard from you yet.

0:24:18 > 0:24:20Let's talk about those cultural challenges,

0:24:20 > 0:24:25the globalisation of people, if you like.

0:24:25 > 0:24:28People going around the world through history

0:24:28 > 0:24:31has made the world go round, hasn't it?

0:24:31 > 0:24:33But there are people in this country,

0:24:33 > 0:24:35and David was speaking about it,

0:24:35 > 0:24:38who have seen rapid change in front of their eyes,

0:24:38 > 0:24:40and they have also been sneered at

0:24:40 > 0:24:43by the liberal intelligentsia as racists.

0:24:43 > 0:24:45I think that's a bit of a crude analysis

0:24:45 > 0:24:46of what's actually happened.

0:24:46 > 0:24:49I think the whole immigration debate needs to be put in

0:24:49 > 0:24:53a broader context in which migrants have been consistently scapegoated.

0:24:53 > 0:24:55We've seen migrants blamed for low pay,

0:24:55 > 0:24:58crumbling public services, and what's actually going on,

0:24:58 > 0:25:01all the evidence shows, from the LSE to the OECD,

0:25:01 > 0:25:04that migrants aren't a significant factor in low pay and that

0:25:04 > 0:25:06it's underinvestment in our public services

0:25:06 > 0:25:08that's leading them to collapse.

0:25:08 > 0:25:11So I think that there are a number of things going on with

0:25:11 > 0:25:14people's cultural anxiety, I think that is a real thing,

0:25:14 > 0:25:16I'm not denying that it is, and we need to look at

0:25:16 > 0:25:18the other factors alongside immigration.

0:25:18 > 0:25:20But just to talk about immigration first,

0:25:20 > 0:25:25I think the whole immigration debate needs to be recognised.

0:25:25 > 0:25:28Zubaida Haque from the Runnymede Trust has talked about this -

0:25:28 > 0:25:31that anti-immigration sentiment is not always correlating with

0:25:31 > 0:25:32the numbers of immigrants in the country.

0:25:32 > 0:25:37So if you go back to 1978, you will see that when net immigration

0:25:37 > 0:25:42was zero, 70% of people in Britain said that they felt their culture

0:25:42 > 0:25:44was being swamped by migrants.

0:25:44 > 0:25:45So what that tells us is,

0:25:45 > 0:25:48we need to be recognising that anti-immigration sentiment

0:25:48 > 0:25:50is very deeply entrenched in this country,

0:25:50 > 0:25:52- and we need to be addressing... - Well, is it?

0:25:52 > 0:25:54Because we have had a lot of attitudinal change

0:25:54 > 0:25:57on many social issues since 1978

0:25:57 > 0:25:59which goes against that particular tide.

0:25:59 > 0:26:01So, can you compare like with like?

0:26:01 > 0:26:04Well, I think that what we can look at is the fact that there

0:26:04 > 0:26:07has consistently been a hostile environment to migrants.

0:26:07 > 0:26:09If you look at government policy from the 1960s, there was

0:26:09 > 0:26:12a concerted effort to keep migrants of colour out of this country.

0:26:12 > 0:26:15So what I'm saying is not that we should be ignoring

0:26:15 > 0:26:18people's concerns, often deeply legitimate concerns,

0:26:18 > 0:26:20but we should be recognising that instead of just

0:26:20 > 0:26:23calling people racist, we should be addressing why there is prejudice.

0:26:23 > 0:26:26That's not to say that everyone who is anti-immigration is racist,

0:26:26 > 0:26:28but it is to recognise that there is an element of racism

0:26:28 > 0:26:31and prejudice within that anti-migrant feeling,

0:26:31 > 0:26:33and I think that we need to be addressing that,

0:26:33 > 0:26:36trying to break down difference as opposed to reinforcing it,

0:26:36 > 0:26:39because people all over the world have far more in common

0:26:39 > 0:26:41than a lot of this discourse would have us believe.

0:26:47 > 0:26:50Douglas, you've written about the cultural challenges,

0:26:50 > 0:26:52what would you say to Maya?

0:26:52 > 0:26:54I entirely disagree.

0:26:54 > 0:26:57I think you would be hard pushed to find a single country in

0:26:57 > 0:26:59the world that has been as tolerant

0:26:59 > 0:27:02and as welcoming of migration as this one.

0:27:02 > 0:27:07I cannot think of one anywhere in the world.

0:27:07 > 0:27:10I've travelled widely, not just in our continent but across the world,

0:27:10 > 0:27:12and I can assure you that if the numbers that came into

0:27:12 > 0:27:14this country over the post-war period

0:27:14 > 0:27:17up until now had gone into any other country in the world

0:27:17 > 0:27:19that we would be seeing a very different response.

0:27:19 > 0:27:24And I think this is a knee-jerk assault on the British people

0:27:24 > 0:27:26which is continuing and should stop.

0:27:26 > 0:27:29We were talking earlier about some of the economic implications.

0:27:29 > 0:27:31The economic implications of globalisation include

0:27:31 > 0:27:35the possibility that people born in this country, er, the same time

0:27:35 > 0:27:38as somebody in this country has a child,

0:27:38 > 0:27:42they are competing with dozens of other children around the world

0:27:42 > 0:27:45to get to the lifestyle and benefits that people across the world

0:27:45 > 0:27:48would dream of and which people in this country think

0:27:48 > 0:27:50is their birthright, and that's changing.

0:27:50 > 0:27:53And that's going to change across all sorts of parts

0:27:53 > 0:27:56of the developed world, and one of the things that makes that change

0:27:56 > 0:27:59far, far more painful is the idea that it will happen

0:27:59 > 0:28:04simultaneously with an assault on their identity,

0:28:04 > 0:28:08because people can potentially take the stagnation of wages,

0:28:08 > 0:28:10they can potentially take living standards questions,

0:28:10 > 0:28:13but if the same time you say, "Oh, and by the way,

0:28:13 > 0:28:18"maybe we don't always say you're racists, but we sort of imply it,"

0:28:18 > 0:28:22then I think you're going to build up a lot of problems for the future.

0:28:22 > 0:28:26And by the way, very quickly, on your 1970s point, one of the things

0:28:26 > 0:28:28about migration is, it takes a long time for that effect to happen.

0:28:28 > 0:28:32If you look at the opinion polls on migration in this country

0:28:32 > 0:28:35that followed the influx after the Blair government,

0:28:35 > 0:28:39it took time for people's attitudes to harden on migration,

0:28:39 > 0:28:44precisely because the impact of that migration takes time to happen.

0:28:44 > 0:28:46So as well as misrepresenting the facts,

0:28:46 > 0:28:50I think you just have to be extremely careful not to say

0:28:50 > 0:28:54this country, which as I say is the most tolerant in the world,

0:28:54 > 0:28:55is in fact the most bigoted,

0:28:55 > 0:28:57because if you travel anywhere around the world

0:28:57 > 0:28:59you will see a very different picture.

0:28:59 > 0:29:02I would just like... I think Douglas makes a very important point there.

0:29:02 > 0:29:04This point about tolerance, as far as I'm concerned,

0:29:04 > 0:29:05is part of the problem.

0:29:05 > 0:29:08For decades, people have been told to put up with people

0:29:08 > 0:29:11and there's never been a concerted explanation to demystify difference.

0:29:11 > 0:29:14So people have been told, "Put up with that person

0:29:14 > 0:29:15"living down the street,

0:29:15 > 0:29:18"they're different, they've come from a different country,

0:29:18 > 0:29:20"maybe they cook a different cuisine..."

0:29:20 > 0:29:21But can I ask you something,

0:29:21 > 0:29:22because this comes to the heart of what

0:29:22 > 0:29:25so many people are debating at the moment, and it's actually at

0:29:25 > 0:29:26the heart of Douglas' book,

0:29:26 > 0:29:29and we'll get his response to it in a moment.

0:29:29 > 0:29:31What if they have a fundamentally different

0:29:31 > 0:29:34set of values, social values? Because we have come through, well,

0:29:34 > 0:29:37it's the 500th anniversary of the Reformation this year,

0:29:37 > 0:29:40we've had that, we've had the Enlightenment,

0:29:40 > 0:29:43the Age of Reason, it's been a long road to where we are today

0:29:43 > 0:29:46for our, broadly speaking, liberal values.

0:29:46 > 0:29:48What if people are inimical to those?

0:29:48 > 0:29:51So firstly, we need to look at the fact that the history

0:29:51 > 0:29:53of Britain is one of people coming in and out of the country.

0:29:53 > 0:29:56So this idea that values exist in this kind of

0:29:56 > 0:29:58hermetically sealed unit of the nation state

0:29:58 > 0:29:59quite clearly isn't true.

0:29:59 > 0:30:01If you look at David Olusoga's Black Britain,

0:30:01 > 0:30:02you see that over 2,000 years

0:30:02 > 0:30:04people have been coming in and out of

0:30:04 > 0:30:07this country contributing ideas and to social change,

0:30:07 > 0:30:10and what I would like to be answered on this question of social values -

0:30:10 > 0:30:12what are the social values,

0:30:12 > 0:30:15what are the social values we feel are at risk because of migration?

0:30:15 > 0:30:18Let's pinpoint them, particularly because this is consistently

0:30:18 > 0:30:21- talked about on the right and it's never quite clear.- I can do.

0:30:21 > 0:30:23Firstly, on your point about the constant movement, actually,

0:30:23 > 0:30:26the movement into these islands in particular

0:30:26 > 0:30:27has been really minimal over...

0:30:27 > 0:30:30What was the biggest event of the last millennium,

0:30:30 > 0:30:31the Norman Conquest?

0:30:31 > 0:30:35About a 5% population shift as a cause of the Norman Conquest.

0:30:35 > 0:30:37So this idea that the movement has been perennial...

0:30:37 > 0:30:40Also, the movement that you're talking about most of

0:30:40 > 0:30:43the time is movement from France, with the Huguenots, for instance,

0:30:43 > 0:30:44Protestant French people,

0:30:44 > 0:30:48or movement from Ireland into what we now call mainland Britain.

0:30:48 > 0:30:52That is not the same as somebody from Eritrea or Ghana

0:30:52 > 0:30:55or Myanmar moving in to live in Salford,

0:30:55 > 0:30:57it's a totally different movement and you should admit that.

0:30:57 > 0:31:00So what's so different about people from Eritrea and Myanmar?

0:31:00 > 0:31:03- My God...- Tell me specifically. - You can't have gone anywhere.

0:31:03 > 0:31:05- Specifically. - You can't have gone anywhere if

0:31:05 > 0:31:06you honestly have to ask that question.

0:31:06 > 0:31:09- It is a simple statement... - Well, answer it for our benefit.

0:31:09 > 0:31:11It is a simple statement of the obvious that countries

0:31:11 > 0:31:14- and cultures have differences, it doesn't mean...- What cultures?

0:31:14 > 0:31:16What are the cultural specificities?

0:31:16 > 0:31:18OK, I'll give you like a history lesson.

0:31:18 > 0:31:20- This country... - I don't need to be patronised.

0:31:20 > 0:31:22..has throughout most of its history

0:31:22 > 0:31:25been a, for instance, Christian country,

0:31:25 > 0:31:27it has been... I'm not a practising Christian myself,

0:31:27 > 0:31:29but it's been historically a Christian country,

0:31:29 > 0:31:32particularly a Protestant Christian country.

0:31:32 > 0:31:34- I mean, there's Christians in... - If I may just finish.

0:31:34 > 0:31:37You see, you asked me to define something and then I try,

0:31:37 > 0:31:41- and then you talk. - You're being very rude, Douglas.

0:31:41 > 0:31:44I feel like you're being very rude.

0:31:44 > 0:31:46In this country,

0:31:46 > 0:31:48the institutions that epitomised our country were

0:31:48 > 0:31:50an established monarchy, for instance,

0:31:50 > 0:31:51the establishment of Parliament,

0:31:51 > 0:31:54the establishment of the judiciary and of the law courts,

0:31:54 > 0:31:57the establishment of the great educational institutions,

0:31:57 > 0:31:59I could go on and on.

0:31:59 > 0:32:02Now, you see, one of the problems is, whenever people say,

0:32:02 > 0:32:06"What is this thing that you call Britain?" We have an identity.

0:32:06 > 0:32:08It's forever being put on a psychiatrist's couch now

0:32:08 > 0:32:10and being deconstructed,

0:32:10 > 0:32:13but we have an identity just as other people have an identity.

0:32:13 > 0:32:15We don't have to war or hate each other,

0:32:15 > 0:32:16but we should recognise it exists.

0:32:16 > 0:32:19OK, Maya, I will come back to you, just hold fire just a second.

0:32:19 > 0:32:21Let's all... OK, Guy.

0:32:21 > 0:32:23I just want to put in a stylised fact.

0:32:23 > 0:32:24We actually, in this country,

0:32:24 > 0:32:28do not have a very high percentage of migrants.

0:32:28 > 0:32:31It's actually slightly less than the European average.

0:32:31 > 0:32:35I happen to be a migrant who lives in Europe

0:32:35 > 0:32:38and works in Europe, and I don't share your values,

0:32:38 > 0:32:43I don't share your identity, I share many of the identities and values

0:32:43 > 0:32:46of people with whom I live in Europe.

0:32:46 > 0:32:50And I think this is complete nonsense, if I may say so,

0:32:50 > 0:32:54because I think we're no more tolerant or less tolerant.

0:32:54 > 0:32:56Some people are tolerant in this country,

0:32:56 > 0:33:01we've absorbed many groups over the years,

0:33:01 > 0:33:04but so have many other countries, and it's great. It's great.

0:33:04 > 0:33:06- DAVID:- Well, no, it isn't great...

0:33:07 > 0:33:12- David.- We now have a populist reaction against...

0:33:12 > 0:33:13"It isn't great", you said.

0:33:13 > 0:33:18No, it isn't. But you're also wrong, we're close to the top

0:33:18 > 0:33:21in terms of numbers over the last 20 years or so.

0:33:21 > 0:33:26- We're not.- We are.- 13%.- No, it's more than that now.- It's not.

0:33:26 > 0:33:30But anyway, we have had a very big change,

0:33:30 > 0:33:34the immigrant and minority population in Britain was about

0:33:34 > 0:33:39four million in the '90s, it is now closer to 11 million.

0:33:39 > 0:33:42And in many places, this has led to a great change.

0:33:42 > 0:33:45But at the same time, people in all places, at all times,

0:33:45 > 0:33:47are hostile to large-scale immigration,

0:33:47 > 0:33:49we just have to be realistic.

0:33:49 > 0:33:52People prefer similarity and familiarity and stability

0:33:52 > 0:33:55in their lives, and that's just a fact of life.

0:33:55 > 0:33:58But at the same time that the numbers have been going up

0:33:58 > 0:34:01and the anxiety and the wariness about it has been going up,

0:34:01 > 0:34:04racial hostility, racist attitudes have been going down.

0:34:04 > 0:34:07I've just written a book about the value divides in British society.

0:34:07 > 0:34:10You look at the British social attitude surveys, on all the...

0:34:10 > 0:34:13That's what I hinted at earlier on, our social attitudes have changed.

0:34:13 > 0:34:16Absolutely. A huge liberalisation, a great liberalisation

0:34:16 > 0:34:21has gone on over sexuality, over gender, and over race too.

0:34:21 > 0:34:25And I think there's something else we have to remember.

0:34:25 > 0:34:29I mean, we have an absolutely in-your-face globalisation.

0:34:29 > 0:34:33It's one thing if your factory closes and moves to China

0:34:33 > 0:34:35or Myanmar, that's one thing,

0:34:35 > 0:34:40but when that happens, and then a whole different population from you

0:34:40 > 0:34:43is imported in your country to compete with you in your own place,

0:34:43 > 0:34:45that's a very, very big difference.

0:34:45 > 0:34:48If I may, let me pick you up on something, I just want to

0:34:48 > 0:34:51wind it back to something you said that about the fact

0:34:51 > 0:34:54that we've had a huge liberalisation process in this country.

0:34:54 > 0:34:58Would you say in Europe we have the world gold standard of human rights?

0:34:58 > 0:35:02- Would we say we are the leaders... - Well, we started first.

0:35:02 > 0:35:05I mean, our antidiscrimination rules, which we drew partly from

0:35:05 > 0:35:06America in the mid-'60s,

0:35:06 > 0:35:08they set the tone for much of what was happening.

0:35:08 > 0:35:10Maya, how do we lead the rest of the world,

0:35:10 > 0:35:13and bring them to our gold standard, our more...

0:35:13 > 0:35:16provocative here, our more advanced human rights?

0:35:16 > 0:35:19I don't agree with this idea that we're bringing the rest of the world

0:35:19 > 0:35:22- and we were leading, if you look at the history...- Are we leading?

0:35:22 > 0:35:24No, if you look at the history of the British Empire,

0:35:24 > 0:35:27- it's a very bloody history. - I'm talking about now.

0:35:27 > 0:35:28But now, I think that...

0:35:28 > 0:35:30In terms of LGBT, in terms of women...

0:35:30 > 0:35:34I think that racial attitudes actually, if you look at the British

0:35:34 > 0:35:37social attitudes survey, there's increasing people who say

0:35:37 > 0:35:40they are intolerant and don't like people of different races.

0:35:40 > 0:35:42That's actually increasing.

0:35:42 > 0:35:45There has been an upward blip in a long downward trend.

0:35:45 > 0:35:48An upward blip because the change has been so radical around it.

0:35:48 > 0:35:49We can't ignore that,

0:35:49 > 0:35:51and to come back to Douglas's point originally,

0:35:51 > 0:35:55we need to probe more, this idea that British society,

0:35:55 > 0:35:58he listed the monarchy, Parliament,

0:35:58 > 0:36:01that it's somehow under threat

0:36:01 > 0:36:03from people from Eritrea, Ghana and Myanmar.

0:36:03 > 0:36:05That's not clear to me how that's the case.

0:36:05 > 0:36:08You've listed these institutions, but you haven't

0:36:08 > 0:36:11explained exactly what it is that is under threat from these people.

0:36:11 > 0:36:14Let's go back to Douglas, because he has to answer that.

0:36:14 > 0:36:16APPLAUSE

0:36:16 > 0:36:19He's had a direct challenge there.

0:36:19 > 0:36:21Then, Sam, I'm going to come to you and Linda...

0:36:21 > 0:36:22I'm going to go Linda first, then Sam,

0:36:22 > 0:36:25but, Douglas, answer that direct challenge from Maya.

0:36:25 > 0:36:28You can do it on all sorts of things - historic attitudes,

0:36:28 > 0:36:31or you can do it on, for instance, current social attitudes,

0:36:31 > 0:36:33which I'll throw out as one example.

0:36:33 > 0:36:37I'll take an example that Nicky just cited of tolerance.

0:36:37 > 0:36:40I think we agree in Britain that we're a tolerant country.

0:36:40 > 0:36:43We're meant to be tolerant, we try to be a tolerant country and so on.

0:36:43 > 0:36:45Polling recently showed that the more immigration you have,

0:36:45 > 0:36:48the less tolerance you have on certain issues,

0:36:48 > 0:36:51not because we the British people have become intolerant,

0:36:51 > 0:36:53but because people come with views of their own.

0:36:53 > 0:36:55Let me give you a quick example.

0:36:55 > 0:36:58A poll carried out two years ago by YouGov,

0:36:58 > 0:37:01asked people their opinions on homosexuality,

0:37:01 > 0:37:03morally acceptable, or morally not acceptable?

0:37:03 > 0:37:07Across the country as a whole, about 14% of the British people

0:37:07 > 0:37:10said homosexuality was not morally acceptable.

0:37:10 > 0:37:13In London, it was double that. Why would that be?

0:37:13 > 0:37:17Is it because London, the capital city, is just

0:37:17 > 0:37:21a particular home of homophobia, or might it be, as I would suggest,

0:37:21 > 0:37:23because people come into the country with attitudes of their own.

0:37:23 > 0:37:26You may deprecate that, and I deprecate that,

0:37:26 > 0:37:29but we should at least acknowledge it - you're trying to cover it over.

0:37:29 > 0:37:33No, I think that actually, this poll... There's another poll

0:37:33 > 0:37:36which shows actually, it asks about attitudes towards homosexuality and

0:37:36 > 0:37:39same sex marriage and you actually find, apart from Scotland,

0:37:39 > 0:37:42in one of the questions, London has better attitudes towards

0:37:42 > 0:37:45homosexuality than the rest of the country.

0:37:45 > 0:37:48But you know, Maya, they could be evangelical Christians,

0:37:48 > 0:37:50there could be certain Muslim communities,

0:37:50 > 0:37:53you know that attitudes are harder on that, that's...

0:37:53 > 0:37:56Yes, but the point is that Douglas is citing this poll,

0:37:56 > 0:37:58but there's counter evidence to that.

0:37:58 > 0:38:00I just want to make a broader point, that, yes, there are some

0:38:00 > 0:38:03attitudes that I don't agree with, such as homophobia.

0:38:03 > 0:38:05I think that we should be challenging those.

0:38:05 > 0:38:06If you go back to the late 1980s,

0:38:06 > 0:38:10even Margaret Thatcher was saying that children were being taught

0:38:10 > 0:38:13traditional moral values, and were also being

0:38:13 > 0:38:16taught that they had "an inalienable right to be gay",

0:38:16 > 0:38:18and that led to Section 28.

0:38:18 > 0:38:21- The point is, social attitudes do change.- We've moved on.

0:38:21 > 0:38:22Wait a minute, OK.

0:38:22 > 0:38:27People will make up their own minds about what they're hearing in that

0:38:27 > 0:38:30particular interesting exchange, and, Sam, I've got you in mind.

0:38:30 > 0:38:33I'll move it over here as well. I'm trying my best.

0:38:33 > 0:38:37Linda, what about the attitudes, human rights,

0:38:37 > 0:38:40social attitudes across the world?

0:38:40 > 0:38:43Are we heading... Is it linear?

0:38:43 > 0:38:46Are we all heading in the same direction, do you think?

0:38:46 > 0:38:48I think for a time

0:38:48 > 0:38:52we thought we were heading towards a similar direction.

0:38:52 > 0:38:54If you look at the UN Declaration of Human Rights,

0:38:54 > 0:38:58I think there was quite a move, especially as emerging markets

0:38:58 > 0:39:02integrated, to move into a greater tolerant set of attitudes and

0:39:02 > 0:39:08values, to make sure human rights are respected around the world.

0:39:08 > 0:39:09But, of course,

0:39:09 > 0:39:15I think there are going to be issues around how people adjust to change.

0:39:15 > 0:39:20I've seen it in America, I am both British and American.

0:39:20 > 0:39:24And America has taken 200 year history very, very...

0:39:24 > 0:39:28It is a country with a lot of immigrants that founded the nation.

0:39:28 > 0:39:30But they all seem to tick the same box, don't they, in America?

0:39:30 > 0:39:34Is it different? Because that's multiculturalism, people argue.

0:39:34 > 0:39:36Everyone has their own culture,

0:39:36 > 0:39:39but they have an overarching one which they all buy into.

0:39:39 > 0:39:43But the downside, the negative of multiculturalism,

0:39:43 > 0:39:45as some people would have it, is people coming here

0:39:45 > 0:39:48and then building fortresses around their own culture.

0:39:48 > 0:39:50There's a difference, isn't there?

0:39:50 > 0:39:53There is, we hear "the melting pot of America" quite a lot,

0:39:53 > 0:39:57so the question is, when you go into the melting pot,

0:39:57 > 0:40:00do you melt into the collective, or do you retain...

0:40:00 > 0:40:02- Multiple identity is possible. - It is.

0:40:02 > 0:40:05I think that's probably why I raised that because I think it

0:40:05 > 0:40:08actually takes... Because America 200 years ago,

0:40:08 > 0:40:12was founded through migration from Britain,

0:40:12 > 0:40:17you have a long period of adjustment with a lot of ups and downs,

0:40:17 > 0:40:20and I am not suggesting at all that America has this solved,

0:40:20 > 0:40:23because we see the problems, but we can also see,

0:40:23 > 0:40:27it has already been mentioned, the 1960s Civil Rights Movement.

0:40:27 > 0:40:31I think there have been steps forward, and steps back, into

0:40:31 > 0:40:35how you can both be a tolerant society,

0:40:35 > 0:40:39and have people believe in something called the American dream,

0:40:39 > 0:40:41for lack of a better way of describing it.

0:40:41 > 0:40:44We get this woolly thing here, "British values",

0:40:44 > 0:40:47nobody quite knows what that is.

0:40:47 > 0:40:52This debate is important because, like I said, it does take time.

0:40:52 > 0:40:57I use America as an example because it is a nation which had to grapple

0:40:57 > 0:40:59with this, from both integrating slaves,

0:40:59 > 0:41:02and through then the early 20th century,

0:41:02 > 0:41:06the migration of Chinese, the later migration of Vietnamese refugees,

0:41:06 > 0:41:11it has had a lot of history in terms of trying to, as I say,

0:41:11 > 0:41:15both assimilate, but allow people to retain their cultural identities.

0:41:15 > 0:41:17There is no easy answer here,

0:41:17 > 0:41:20but the most important thing is to have a dialogue and to make

0:41:20 > 0:41:23sure that what the politicians are doing in terms of institutions

0:41:23 > 0:41:27is bringing people along, and I see this in Europe as well.

0:41:27 > 0:41:30It is a different movement at the moment,

0:41:30 > 0:41:34but the European project is moving towards more political integration,

0:41:34 > 0:41:38and the question we hear there a lot is the democratic deficit,

0:41:38 > 0:41:41have they brought the people along into this new European identity?

0:41:41 > 0:41:45I think, to me, that's why it is great we are having this debate.

0:41:45 > 0:41:49Good. I promised to come to Sam, and I will be over there with Tom,

0:41:49 > 0:41:50and we want to hear from the audience.

0:41:50 > 0:41:53Any thoughts on migration from the audience very quickly?

0:41:53 > 0:41:56- Sam, you have been giving me... - The reason I am so wound up...

0:41:56 > 0:41:57I'll come to you in a minute,

0:41:57 > 0:42:00but I've got to go to Sam because Sam has been giving me daggers.

0:42:00 > 0:42:02Don't worry, sir, I will be with you.

0:42:02 > 0:42:05The thing that is so important to note here is that the debate we are

0:42:05 > 0:42:09having is not one that reflects what migration actually looks like now.

0:42:09 > 0:42:11The waves of migration Douglas was talking about are over.

0:42:11 > 0:42:14We do not have large-scale immigration from any Muslim

0:42:14 > 0:42:15country into the UK.

0:42:15 > 0:42:18All migrants who come to Britain from outside the EU

0:42:18 > 0:42:21are either on high-skilled visas, or they are students.

0:42:21 > 0:42:24There is virtually no low-skilled immigration into the UK.

0:42:24 > 0:42:26- Except from the European Union. - So, when we talk about the EU,

0:42:26 > 0:42:29which is where the unskilled labour comes from,

0:42:29 > 0:42:31about half of that comes from Eastern Europe,

0:42:31 > 0:42:33half of that comes from Western Europe,

0:42:33 > 0:42:36most of the countries like Spain and Italy and Portugal and so on.

0:42:36 > 0:42:39That's the debate that we should be having right now.

0:42:39 > 0:42:41That's the kind of migration we can influence now.

0:42:41 > 0:42:43The concerns Douglas is talking about, we should be talking about,

0:42:43 > 0:42:46but that does not reflect what migration is about at the moment.

0:42:46 > 0:42:49I think that's where David's discussion is much more relevant.

0:42:49 > 0:42:53What's really important is to note that migrants from Europe

0:42:53 > 0:42:57are extremely good in terms of paying money into the state

0:42:57 > 0:42:58and not costing a lot to the state.

0:42:58 > 0:43:00They subsidise the rest of us.

0:43:00 > 0:43:02Borrowing is lower, taxes are lower...

0:43:02 > 0:43:04Only the West European ones, Sam,

0:43:04 > 0:43:07not the East and central European ones, that is more or less neutral.

0:43:07 > 0:43:11The French and German bankers do subsidise, the others don't.

0:43:11 > 0:43:13No, that's not the case.

0:43:13 > 0:43:15Look at the famous Christian Dustmann paper...

0:43:15 > 0:43:19Don't get me onto the famous Christian Dustmann paper!

0:43:19 > 0:43:21Don't get me onto that! Carry on.

0:43:21 > 0:43:23The reason that they do that is not because they are magic,

0:43:23 > 0:43:26and the reason that you don't see this huge drag coming in

0:43:26 > 0:43:27is because they're young.

0:43:27 > 0:43:30They're not a burden on the pension system, or on the health system.

0:43:30 > 0:43:32That's what is doing it.

0:43:32 > 0:43:34Those people are like a blood transfusion to the economy,

0:43:34 > 0:43:38- and they are keeping the rest of our taxes low.- OK, sir, I am so sorry.

0:43:38 > 0:43:40We will have Tom in a second.

0:43:40 > 0:43:45Look at the... Let's return to the global impact of globalisation,

0:43:45 > 0:43:48and I think what's happened is that it has polarised the world.

0:43:48 > 0:43:51We have been divided into rich and poor,

0:43:51 > 0:43:54and that is not just about money, but human resource.

0:43:54 > 0:43:56For example, if you look at...

0:43:56 > 0:43:59We were just listening to American experience.

0:43:59 > 0:44:01America is the biggest culprit.

0:44:01 > 0:44:04It actually sucks the talent from across the world.

0:44:04 > 0:44:07In the process, it leaves the poorer nation poorer.

0:44:07 > 0:44:09But if people want to go there...

0:44:09 > 0:44:12Well, I mean, as individuals, you'll always like to go

0:44:12 > 0:44:16to where there are opportunities, where individuals are better.

0:44:16 > 0:44:17Yes.

0:44:17 > 0:44:19I mean, I migrated from India.

0:44:19 > 0:44:23In the process, India lost a doctor and Britain gained a doctor.

0:44:23 > 0:44:26So the inequality is that we now have seven doctors

0:44:26 > 0:44:28for 10,000 people in India,

0:44:28 > 0:44:33and we have 27 or 23 doctors in the States for 10,000 people.

0:44:33 > 0:44:37So this kind of inequality is the real problem.

0:44:37 > 0:44:41You can't just look at globalisation as an issue for Britain,

0:44:41 > 0:44:43and tolerance or intolerance, but really,

0:44:43 > 0:44:46there are people out there, more than one billion,

0:44:46 > 0:44:50- who are really destitute and are losing out.- A very good point.

0:44:50 > 0:44:52OK, Tom. Tom, if I may.

0:44:52 > 0:44:56I want to move on and you will all get a chance on this,

0:44:56 > 0:44:59I promise, but it is about how we deal with this challenge,

0:44:59 > 0:45:04the continuing opportunities of globalisation.

0:45:04 > 0:45:07It's capitalism in crisis.

0:45:07 > 0:45:09I don't think it's necessarily the case that it is...

0:45:09 > 0:45:12I think it is in crisis at the moment insofar as I think it's

0:45:12 > 0:45:14a decaying capitalism which is propped up by the state,

0:45:14 > 0:45:17effectively, whether it's through low interest rates,

0:45:17 > 0:45:19things that Sam was talking about earlier,

0:45:19 > 0:45:21dis-incentivise research and development.

0:45:21 > 0:45:24I think one of the big problems is we have a zombie economy,

0:45:24 > 0:45:27which effectively is incapable of generating the kind of

0:45:27 > 0:45:29transformative change and the new technologies

0:45:29 > 0:45:31that we have been talking about.

0:45:31 > 0:45:34I think that, post-Brexit, the thing we have really got to look at

0:45:34 > 0:45:36is the way in which we generate that at home.

0:45:36 > 0:45:38So there's a lot of focus on trade deals,

0:45:38 > 0:45:40and there's a lot of focus on whether it's with the EU,

0:45:40 > 0:45:43or whether it's with other countries internationally,

0:45:43 > 0:45:45and how we can make trade as easy as possible.

0:45:45 > 0:45:48But if you haven't got anything to sell, if you haven't got

0:45:48 > 0:45:50thriving viable industries, that doesn't get you very far.

0:45:50 > 0:45:54The thing I disagree with Sam on is I don't think the private sector

0:45:54 > 0:45:57is capable of generating the kind of research and development we need.

0:45:57 > 0:46:00I think, not only is it hampered in so many ways, but I think it

0:46:00 > 0:46:04has become incredibly risk averse as a consequence of that.

0:46:04 > 0:46:06I think we need to take away the measures which are propping up

0:46:06 > 0:46:08this zombie economy,

0:46:08 > 0:46:11but we also need to put loads and loads of money,

0:46:11 > 0:46:14I think we need to double and then double again the 0.5% of GDP that

0:46:14 > 0:46:17goes into research and development to fund those new industries.

0:46:17 > 0:46:20I think we have got a fantastic opportunity at the moment

0:46:20 > 0:46:23insofar as there's so much that within the European Union actually

0:46:23 > 0:46:24avoided these kinds of innovations,

0:46:24 > 0:46:28the precautionary principle which is enshrined within EU regulations.

0:46:28 > 0:46:31So we're not going to be in that previous phase, "a cork

0:46:31 > 0:46:34bobbing on a rough sea", we're going to be able to navigate this?

0:46:34 > 0:46:38I think so, and it's a case of looking at this, not as a question

0:46:38 > 0:46:40of what are these outside forces that we are subject to?

0:46:40 > 0:46:43There's a lot that we can tackle at home,

0:46:43 > 0:46:45and I think that's what we really need to focus on.

0:46:45 > 0:46:47On one side you have people saying,

0:46:47 > 0:46:50whether it's Donald Trump talking about China as the reason

0:46:50 > 0:46:53that manufacturing has hollowed out in the US is ridiculous, but

0:46:53 > 0:46:56at the same time suggesting that our economic future is entirely reliant

0:46:56 > 0:46:58on our agreement with the rest of the world,

0:46:58 > 0:47:00misses the opportunity we have at home to really boost productivity

0:47:00 > 0:47:03and get a new Industrial Revolution of the ground.

0:47:03 > 0:47:04OK, in how to deal with this, then,

0:47:04 > 0:47:07Katy, I knew it had to start somewhere.

0:47:07 > 0:47:11The top 100 richest entities in the world,

0:47:11 > 0:47:1369 are corporations.

0:47:13 > 0:47:16You know, we are all working for them.

0:47:16 > 0:47:20We are all the slaves of corporations. What do we do?

0:47:20 > 0:47:22Yes, I mean it is the power balance.

0:47:22 > 0:47:25- How do we get them to pay their taxes?- Well, exactly.

0:47:25 > 0:47:26They are all over the place.

0:47:26 > 0:47:27Exactly, and they know it,

0:47:27 > 0:47:29and they know they have got the bargaining chip.

0:47:29 > 0:47:32We had a really interesting presentation from a guy

0:47:32 > 0:47:35who used to be the finance minister of Rwanda, so Rwanda's

0:47:35 > 0:47:38Chancellor of the Exchequer, and he describes being, you know,

0:47:38 > 0:47:41the finance minister of a country and a corporation -

0:47:41 > 0:47:44they fly in, say, "We'd like to invest in your country.

0:47:44 > 0:47:46"By the way, we don't want to pay any tax,

0:47:46 > 0:47:48"and then we want to pay reduced tax for 10 years.

0:47:48 > 0:47:51"You've got an hour to decide and then we're flying to your neighbour,

0:47:51 > 0:47:54"and they'll say yes, so," you know, "you'd better take the deal."

0:47:54 > 0:47:55It is like a game show!

0:47:55 > 0:47:59You know, it is absolutely that brutal, so we do need...

0:47:59 > 0:48:02It was something Guy said right at the beginning.

0:48:02 > 0:48:06It's not just that we have these economic forces,

0:48:06 > 0:48:10we also have countries being told this is how you do development,

0:48:10 > 0:48:12you must be completely open,

0:48:12 > 0:48:15and it is that kind of logic that we have got to change.

0:48:15 > 0:48:17You have got to see countries willing to club together,

0:48:17 > 0:48:19saying actually, "You know what?

0:48:19 > 0:48:22"We're not going to trade off against each other on our tax rates.

0:48:22 > 0:48:24"We're going to say that as a group of East African countries

0:48:24 > 0:48:28"we can't be played off against each other, we will pay tax."

0:48:28 > 0:48:31But also, the answer is not just with big government.

0:48:31 > 0:48:33We have to tackle corruption, don't we?

0:48:33 > 0:48:34But the answer is also with people,

0:48:34 > 0:48:37with peoples' rights to enter trade unions.

0:48:37 > 0:48:41Take a company like Burger King, all over the world, giving us Whoppers.

0:48:41 > 0:48:43Because they have...

0:48:43 > 0:48:46Politicians give us whoppers!

0:48:46 > 0:48:48For free!

0:48:48 > 0:48:51But, you know, a company like Burger King,

0:48:51 > 0:48:55same business model everywhere, but in Denmark, because of a collective

0:48:55 > 0:48:59bargaining agreement, you get 20 an hour making those burgers.

0:48:59 > 0:49:00In the US it is 8.

0:49:00 > 0:49:04The same company and the same forces can be interacted very differently

0:49:04 > 0:49:06with the policy environment,

0:49:06 > 0:49:09so we've just got to reject this idea it's a force of nature.

0:49:09 > 0:49:11The same with technology.

0:49:11 > 0:49:14I'm sorry, technology is not some force of nature either,

0:49:14 > 0:49:17and governments have a duty to think, "How are we going to interact

0:49:17 > 0:49:21"with this growth of technology and make it work for our people?"

0:49:21 > 0:49:24How are we going to do that? The growth of technology.

0:49:24 > 0:49:28Well, I think every technological revolution leads to people

0:49:28 > 0:49:31saying, "We're going to have mass unemployment."

0:49:31 > 0:49:34Technology today is more advanced than at any time in history,

0:49:34 > 0:49:38and we have many, many more jobs today

0:49:38 > 0:49:40than at any time in history.

0:49:40 > 0:49:45But what I was going to complement this last set of remarks was...

0:49:45 > 0:49:46- From Katy? - ..that in fact... By Katy.

0:49:46 > 0:49:51..is that another elephant that's is in the room, if you like,

0:49:51 > 0:49:55that's Sam's phrase, is that the intellectual property rights

0:49:55 > 0:50:00regime that has been constructed in the last 20 years is that elephant.

0:50:00 > 0:50:04What it's done is it's tripled the number of patents,

0:50:04 > 0:50:06for example, that big corporations are taking out.

0:50:06 > 0:50:08But if you've invented something...

0:50:08 > 0:50:12No, but many of these are not inventions.

0:50:12 > 0:50:16Many of these are the results of numerous people,

0:50:16 > 0:50:21but the big corporations buy up thousands of patents

0:50:21 > 0:50:25and they string them together - it's called hoovering.

0:50:25 > 0:50:28They string them together and they can turn that

0:50:28 > 0:50:30into billions and billions of dollars.

0:50:30 > 0:50:32It is about control. Hoovering, David?

0:50:32 > 0:50:34Wait, let me finish, please.

0:50:34 > 0:50:38The hoovering of patents and copyright

0:50:38 > 0:50:43is actually generating a phenomenal rentier economy,

0:50:43 > 0:50:48where these patents give a monopoly income of 20 years.

0:50:48 > 0:50:52So nobody else can produce that product once it's patented.

0:50:52 > 0:50:55- OK...- In pharmaceuticals... - I will come to David.

0:50:55 > 0:50:58Linda, what do you make of this? Hoovering.

0:50:58 > 0:51:02I think the other term is "patent trolls" as well,

0:51:02 > 0:51:06where you patent so that you prevent other people from doing that.

0:51:06 > 0:51:09Moving ahead, what do you do, how do you control this?

0:51:09 > 0:51:13I think every government has a responsibility to make sure

0:51:13 > 0:51:18that what is happening in the economy benefits its people,

0:51:18 > 0:51:21whether it is productivity, whether it is growth, whether it's wages.

0:51:21 > 0:51:24- But no government can control that. - No, but you can do two things.

0:51:24 > 0:51:28You can take global leadership in making sure that the institutions

0:51:28 > 0:51:30are not dictated to by one powerful country.

0:51:30 > 0:51:33Can I stop you there? What is global leadership?

0:51:33 > 0:51:37Are we expecting politicians to think beyond the electoral cycle?

0:51:37 > 0:51:39Clearly I'm less cynical than you, Nicky!

0:51:39 > 0:51:42What I mean is, so, for instance, on trade,

0:51:42 > 0:51:44we have seen essentially more protectionism

0:51:44 > 0:51:48and people are sort of rolling back, and you can actually, as a nation,

0:51:48 > 0:51:52say we think that opening up markets has been very good

0:51:52 > 0:51:56over the past few decades, but there are problems to deal with.

0:51:56 > 0:51:58In a sense, you tackle the institution.

0:51:58 > 0:52:01Any country. It could be Britain, it could be China,

0:52:01 > 0:52:03it could be any country doing this.

0:52:03 > 0:52:06But I want to probably focus a bit on what countries could do

0:52:06 > 0:52:11within their own nation, which I think is absolutely possible.

0:52:11 > 0:52:14So the debate around how you deal with the fact that trade

0:52:14 > 0:52:18and globalisation tends to benefit the economy as a whole

0:52:18 > 0:52:21and disproportionately some, including corporations.

0:52:21 > 0:52:24But there are always distributional consequences.

0:52:24 > 0:52:28So, with those who are left behind, do you redistribute,

0:52:28 > 0:52:31or do you undertake pre-distribution policies?

0:52:31 > 0:52:34Redistribution is giving somebody help if they lose their job

0:52:34 > 0:52:39because of either technology, automation taking their job,

0:52:39 > 0:52:42or, you know, the country doesn't...

0:52:42 > 0:52:44Pre-distribution - is that the way ahead?

0:52:44 > 0:52:47Pre-distribution is about investing in education and skills

0:52:47 > 0:52:49so you are more flexible to adapt.

0:52:49 > 0:52:52This was the great contract, you know, go back to the 1990s,

0:52:52 > 0:52:54we had this contract, the new Democrats,

0:52:54 > 0:52:56Clinton, new Labour, Blair

0:52:56 > 0:53:01they said accept globalisation and you have no fear - your job may go

0:53:01 > 0:53:03but we'll retrain you for another job.

0:53:03 > 0:53:05The truth is, it really didn't happen,

0:53:05 > 0:53:08and this is one of the reasons why populism has emerged in,

0:53:08 > 0:53:11you know, the early part of the 21st century,

0:53:11 > 0:53:14because people felt that deal was not fulfilled.

0:53:14 > 0:53:18Just pull the camera back, we need a more moderated globalisation,

0:53:18 > 0:53:20with many more national vetoes.

0:53:20 > 0:53:23The nation state is absolutely key here, and we underestimate...

0:53:23 > 0:53:26Is that easier inside or outside Brexit for us?

0:53:26 > 0:53:29I mean, I think in some ways, outside.

0:53:29 > 0:53:31I mean, I was a reluctant Remain.

0:53:31 > 0:53:34I said "outside Brexit", that made no sense at all.

0:53:34 > 0:53:36I meant "with Brexit".

0:53:36 > 0:53:39I was a reluctant Remain, but I do think, I mean, in certain ways...

0:53:39 > 0:53:42Look, we are going to be constrained by global markets,

0:53:42 > 0:53:45whether we are inside the European Union, or outside the EU.

0:53:45 > 0:53:47But we're constrained by the European Union.

0:53:47 > 0:53:50We are one voice amongst 28 when we are inside the European Union,

0:53:50 > 0:53:51so I think we do...

0:53:51 > 0:53:53But just think of the bigger picture of rich countries.

0:53:53 > 0:53:55We have very different kinds of regimes.

0:53:55 > 0:54:00Think of how different Japan is from the United States, from Germany.

0:54:00 > 0:54:03We have the European model, the Japanese model,

0:54:03 > 0:54:06we have a much more laissez-faire, liberal model,

0:54:06 > 0:54:09and yet corporations have to adapt to all of these,

0:54:09 > 0:54:13but we are making corporations the new bogeyman. They are not perfect.

0:54:13 > 0:54:14But we can produce...

0:54:14 > 0:54:17equally wealthy countries with really different regimes.

0:54:17 > 0:54:19The nation state has more power than we think.

0:54:19 > 0:54:22Let Douglas comment, he hasn't spoken for a while.

0:54:22 > 0:54:25The other thing, just quickly, is that corporations and things,

0:54:25 > 0:54:28they are not entities that are impossible to affect.

0:54:28 > 0:54:30I was speaking to somebody from Silicon Valley recently,

0:54:30 > 0:54:33one of the big tech firms there, who was saying, you know,

0:54:33 > 0:54:36the way in which they have developed politically, for instance,

0:54:36 > 0:54:39these are corporations with more money than a lot of countries.

0:54:39 > 0:54:42But the way they've developed and their idea of politics,

0:54:42 > 0:54:43is sort of teenage.

0:54:43 > 0:54:46They've grown so fast that their hands have gone

0:54:46 > 0:54:50a bit faster than their legs have extended and so on.

0:54:50 > 0:54:53These are entities which are profoundly available

0:54:53 > 0:54:57to be influenced by politics, by public sentiment, by public mood.

0:54:57 > 0:55:00They are far more vulnerable to all of these things than we think.

0:55:00 > 0:55:02People power.

0:55:02 > 0:55:06I would like to come back to... The whole point of effective leadership

0:55:06 > 0:55:09that isn't authoritarian and autocratic is to bring people

0:55:09 > 0:55:13along with you and to be seen to support their interests

0:55:13 > 0:55:14and their advancement.

0:55:14 > 0:55:17One of the issues is, I think governments worldwide

0:55:17 > 0:55:20and all the international bodies are just too...

0:55:20 > 0:55:23They're kowtowing to corporations, and, yes, they're very powerful,

0:55:23 > 0:55:27but the fact is that most of the jobs, and a lot of the economic job,

0:55:27 > 0:55:29is still with small businesses and small enterprises.

0:55:29 > 0:55:31That's actually the backbone of the economy.

0:55:31 > 0:55:34If you do want to attract jobs, it's an absolute myth...

0:55:34 > 0:55:37I mean, tax is important, as you were saying,

0:55:37 > 0:55:41but corporations and firms are often calling your bluff

0:55:41 > 0:55:44when they say they'll leave you if you don't reduce tax to this level,

0:55:44 > 0:55:47because what they really care about is an educated,

0:55:47 > 0:55:50healthy workforce, infrastructure which is publicly provided for,

0:55:50 > 0:55:53therefore tax needs to be paid to provide it,

0:55:53 > 0:55:55and political stability,

0:55:55 > 0:55:58and an educated workforce.

0:55:58 > 0:56:05So it's not this ruthless supposed competition of corporations.

0:56:05 > 0:56:07It's actually incredibly heavily subsidised.

0:56:07 > 0:56:11Just to go back, I think if we are to have globalisation

0:56:11 > 0:56:14that people support, I dread to think of a model of globalisation

0:56:14 > 0:56:17where we have free movement of goods and capital,

0:56:17 > 0:56:21without a relatively free movement of people

0:56:21 > 0:56:24because then I think people are going to feel very vulnerable...

0:56:24 > 0:56:26I'll come to you in a minute, Linda.

0:56:26 > 0:56:28But, Guy, the minimum basic income,

0:56:28 > 0:56:31and you must do it in a very short time. One answer.

0:56:31 > 0:56:33We are running out of time.

0:56:33 > 0:56:37A very complex issue we've been working on for 35 years...!

0:56:37 > 0:56:40- I know, but you are a very skilful man.- Very simple man.

0:56:40 > 0:56:43I think our income distribution system has broken down.

0:56:43 > 0:56:47I don't think our real wages will be rising much in the future

0:56:47 > 0:56:49because of globalisation,

0:56:49 > 0:56:52and I think the incomes going to the rentiers

0:56:52 > 0:56:54and finance will go up and up.

0:56:54 > 0:56:59The precariat, the group I write about, are growing in numbers

0:56:59 > 0:57:02and experiencing growing insecurity, impoverishment and so on.

0:57:02 > 0:57:06A basic income would be part of a new distribution.

0:57:06 > 0:57:10You used the term pre-distribution. I don't feel comfortable with that.

0:57:10 > 0:57:13But I actually believe in a basic income

0:57:13 > 0:57:15for three philosophical reasons.

0:57:15 > 0:57:17Make them quick.

0:57:17 > 0:57:18I understand, I understand I'm under pressure.

0:57:18 > 0:57:21- The first one...- We're all under pressure, that's globalisation.

0:57:21 > 0:57:25- You're taking up my time! - You've only got two now!

0:57:25 > 0:57:27- The first is social justice.- Right.

0:57:27 > 0:57:30I go back to Thomas Paine in that regard,

0:57:30 > 0:57:34saying it's a return on the collective wealth of society.

0:57:34 > 0:57:37Second, I think it would enhance freedom.

0:57:37 > 0:57:41- We all claim we believe in freedom. - And the third?

0:57:41 > 0:57:43You can't have freedom if you're insecure.

0:57:43 > 0:57:46The third one is that it would give basic security and

0:57:46 > 0:57:50psychologists have shown that if you don't have basic security,

0:57:50 > 0:57:53your mental IQ suffers and those are the philosophical reasons.

0:57:53 > 0:57:57You've got 30 seconds to wrap it up for us, Linda.

0:57:57 > 0:58:02Pre-distribution is a terrible term, but what it really means is

0:58:02 > 0:58:06that the workforce today has to be properly skilled

0:58:06 > 0:58:10with education and training and options, should the economy change.

0:58:10 > 0:58:15In other words, instead of focusing on coming up with money

0:58:15 > 0:58:20after the fact, redistribution, you have to make sure that this country,

0:58:20 > 0:58:21not just the young people,

0:58:21 > 0:58:24but people who have to move into new industries,

0:58:24 > 0:58:27can get access to coding, programming, the internet,

0:58:27 > 0:58:30has enabled them to do better, we must ensure that they can.

0:58:30 > 0:58:32That's pre-distribution.

0:58:32 > 0:58:35Give them all a round of applause. Brilliant.

0:58:35 > 0:58:37As always, the debate continues on Twitter and online.

0:58:37 > 0:58:39Join us next Sunday from London.

0:58:39 > 0:58:43For now, goodbye from everyone in Salford. Thanks for watching.