30/07/2014

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0:00:03 > 0:00:05Hello. This is the time of day when

0:00:05 > 0:00:09we look at the weather trend further ahead, out to about 10 days or so.

0:00:09 > 0:00:12There's no doubt that the weather is set to change,

0:00:12 > 0:00:14moving into a rather different type of summer mode,

0:00:14 > 0:00:17with low pressure always close by,

0:00:17 > 0:00:19which means it'll be more unsettled.

0:00:19 > 0:00:20Fairly weak weather fronts

0:00:20 > 0:00:23moving Southwards across the UK for Thursday.

0:00:23 > 0:00:25But they'll tend to be the focus

0:00:25 > 0:00:28for heavy showers to break out during the day.

0:00:28 > 0:00:31Not that many places missing them altogether.

0:00:31 > 0:00:33Maybe the far South-East of England staying dry.

0:00:33 > 0:00:34Otherwise, it's a matter

0:00:34 > 0:00:36of dodging showers and sunshine in-between.

0:00:36 > 0:00:38You'll notice through the afternoon,

0:00:38 > 0:00:40from the bright colours,

0:00:40 > 0:00:42that some of those showers will be heavy.

0:00:42 > 0:00:44Could be some thunder in the mix as well,

0:00:44 > 0:00:46some heavy downpours around.

0:00:46 > 0:00:48But the showers lining up,

0:00:48 > 0:00:49so either side of those lines

0:00:49 > 0:00:51you could get lengthy dry spells.

0:00:51 > 0:00:54You can see some sunshine among the showers.

0:00:54 > 0:00:55You'll also notice temperatures

0:00:55 > 0:00:57similar to recent days.

0:00:57 > 0:00:59Also the wind a bit lighter across Scotland,

0:00:59 > 0:01:01so that will help with the feel of things,

0:01:01 > 0:01:04even with those big showers rattling around.

0:01:04 > 0:01:06The showers continue into the evening,

0:01:06 > 0:01:08but becoming fewer and further between

0:01:08 > 0:01:10as tends to happen -

0:01:10 > 0:01:11the heat of the day ebbs away

0:01:11 > 0:01:14and so the showers tend to subside.

0:01:14 > 0:01:16So, many places ending up dry.

0:01:16 > 0:01:17It looks a bit different

0:01:17 > 0:01:19heading into Friday

0:01:19 > 0:01:20and the start of the weekend.

0:01:20 > 0:01:22A developing area of low pressure

0:01:22 > 0:01:25to the South is one we'll have to watch.

0:01:25 > 0:01:27Ahead of that on Friday,

0:01:27 > 0:01:28quite a bit of dry weather around,

0:01:28 > 0:01:30certainly across central

0:01:30 > 0:01:31and Eastern parts of England.

0:01:31 > 0:01:33Scattered showers across

0:01:33 > 0:01:34Scotland and Northern Ireland

0:01:34 > 0:01:36but it's a more organised area

0:01:36 > 0:01:37of showers merging together

0:01:37 > 0:01:39coming up across South-Western areas

0:01:39 > 0:01:41through the course of the day.

0:01:41 > 0:01:43And that's what we'll have to watch

0:01:43 > 0:01:45over the weekend.

0:01:45 > 0:01:46Still some uncertainty

0:01:46 > 0:01:48about the details of this low,

0:01:48 > 0:01:50but we're firming up on the idea

0:01:50 > 0:01:52that we'll get an area of low pressure

0:01:52 > 0:01:54running Northwards across most areas

0:01:54 > 0:01:56through the course of the weekend.

0:01:56 > 0:01:58That means we will see outbreaks of rain.

0:01:58 > 0:02:01Some of it could be heavy and persistent,

0:02:01 > 0:02:02but breaking up into showers.

0:02:02 > 0:02:04Gradually, as the weekend goes on,

0:02:04 > 0:02:07that more persistent rain moving Northwards,

0:02:07 > 0:02:08allowing something drier and brighter

0:02:08 > 0:02:10to push in from the South.

0:02:10 > 0:02:12The big uncertainty at the moment is

0:02:12 > 0:02:14how quickly that process will happen.

0:02:14 > 0:02:16Potential for brisk winds

0:02:16 > 0:02:18around that area of low pressure,

0:02:18 > 0:02:20could be gales in some exposed areas.

0:02:20 > 0:02:23Temperatures struggling where we've got the rain,

0:02:23 > 0:02:25but once the sun breaks out,

0:02:25 > 0:02:26it won't feel too bad,

0:02:26 > 0:02:29getting up close to the seasonal average.

0:02:29 > 0:02:31Then, as we go through into Monday,

0:02:31 > 0:02:33the remnants of that low pressure system

0:02:33 > 0:02:35gradually pull away.

0:02:35 > 0:02:37A little bump of high pressure coming in,

0:02:37 > 0:02:38so that promises something

0:02:38 > 0:02:40a bit more settled for Monday.

0:02:40 > 0:02:41But more low pressure

0:02:41 > 0:02:43waiting out in the Western Atlantic.

0:02:43 > 0:02:45So best estimate at the moment

0:02:45 > 0:02:47is that Monday could be a fine day for most,

0:02:47 > 0:02:48maybe one or two showers

0:02:48 > 0:02:50lingering on across Northern areas.

0:02:50 > 0:02:51Again, those temperatures

0:02:51 > 0:02:53close to seasonal expectations.

0:02:53 > 0:02:56Pleasantly warm when the sun breaks out.

0:02:56 > 0:02:58Looking further ahead to the 8th of August,

0:02:58 > 0:03:01the signs are it will stay unsettled,

0:03:01 > 0:03:03quite windy at times with low pressure nearby.

0:03:03 > 0:03:06Highest temperatures are likely to be

0:03:06 > 0:03:08across more South-Eastern parts of the UK,

0:03:08 > 0:03:09the more wet weather

0:03:09 > 0:03:11across the North-West overall.

0:03:11 > 0:03:13But that's just an average.

0:03:13 > 0:03:16That's because low pressure is to the North or North-West,

0:03:16 > 0:03:17high pressure to the South.

0:03:17 > 0:03:18Any time the high edges North,

0:03:18 > 0:03:20it will allow that warmer air

0:03:20 > 0:03:22to push in across South-Eastern parts,

0:03:22 > 0:03:24whereas closer to the low,

0:03:24 > 0:03:25there's more chance of catching

0:03:25 > 0:03:27some outbreaks of rain.

0:03:27 > 0:03:29But certainly some fine weather to be found,

0:03:29 > 0:03:31despite the unsettled theme.

0:03:34 > 0:03:36This is the real deal.

0:03:37 > 0:03:39The next six months...

0:03:40 > 0:03:43..will define the rest of our lives.

0:03:45 > 0:03:47It's about this moment.

0:03:48 > 0:03:49ENGINE ROARS

0:03:51 > 0:03:54She will pay for their sins.

0:03:54 > 0:03:55She's safe.

0:03:55 > 0:03:56Not any more.