11/09/2014

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0:00:05 > 0:00:07It's time for our update on the Weather For The Week Ahead

0:00:07 > 0:00:09and a cheeky glimpse of what might lie beyond.

0:00:09 > 0:00:12The question is how long will this settled spell last?

0:00:12 > 0:00:15The answer is probably quite a lot longer, as we'll see in a moment.

0:00:15 > 0:00:18There'll be day to day subtle variations in the amount

0:00:18 > 0:00:20of cloud tomorrow morning.

0:00:20 > 0:00:23Rather more cloud in the sky across some Eastern counties of England.

0:00:23 > 0:00:25Might just squeeze out the odd spot of drizzle,

0:00:25 > 0:00:28but basically dry nationwide and a lot of sunshine further West.

0:00:28 > 0:00:30A lovely start to the day for many of it.

0:00:30 > 0:00:33A chilly one and some patches of fog in the low lying

0:00:33 > 0:00:36glens of Scotland, for example. It could be a foggy start,

0:00:36 > 0:00:39quite a chilly one here, so too for parts of Northern Ireland.

0:00:39 > 0:00:42Those temperatures will bounce back as we go through morning with

0:00:42 > 0:00:45plenty of sunshine expected and the fog will clear away.

0:00:45 > 0:00:48A fine but chilly start across parts of Wales

0:00:48 > 0:00:49and the South West of England.

0:00:49 > 0:00:52I don't think there'll be much cloud in the sky at all across

0:00:52 > 0:00:54Devon and Cornwall.

0:00:54 > 0:00:56Something of a breeze along the English Channel coast,

0:00:56 > 0:00:59but winds will be light across the country with plenty of sunshine.

0:00:59 > 0:01:01That area of cloud across Eastern England will drift a little

0:01:01 > 0:01:05bit further westwards into some central areas, but it will be

0:01:05 > 0:01:09quite thin, it will be prone to breaking, so some sunshine allowed.

0:01:09 > 0:01:11But the best of the sunshine will be further West

0:01:11 > 0:01:13and probably the best of the temperatures - high teens,

0:01:13 > 0:01:18low 20s widely - that's pretty good for the time of year.

0:01:18 > 0:01:20As we go into the evening, it stays dry,

0:01:20 > 0:01:23perhaps a bit more in the way of cloud for some of us

0:01:23 > 0:01:25than we've seen in previous nights, so for that reason,

0:01:25 > 0:01:27temperatures not falling as low.

0:01:27 > 0:01:30Where it does stay clear, it will turn cold,

0:01:30 > 0:01:32down into single figures, whereas for most of us,

0:01:32 > 0:01:37we'll be hovering around 10 or 11 degrees for much of the night.

0:01:37 > 0:01:40The end the week with that dry, settled theme continuing.

0:01:40 > 0:01:42Again, there'll be subtle variations -

0:01:42 > 0:01:46some places seeing rather more cloud, others seeing rather less.

0:01:46 > 0:01:50A breeze developing across Southern counties, but that won't prevent

0:01:50 > 0:01:55temperatures from doing quite nicely up into the high teens, the low 20s.

0:01:55 > 0:02:02So it's a fine end to a fine week for most of us. Why?

0:02:02 > 0:02:05getting deflected to the North of us and the South of us,

0:02:05 > 0:02:09and it's the jet stream which guides our rain-bearing weather systems.

0:02:09 > 0:02:14We're sort of in no-man's-land here, and that's where we're got a block.

0:02:14 > 0:02:18A blocking high pressure system which is sat close to our shores

0:02:18 > 0:02:20and it will be for several days to come.

0:02:20 > 0:02:25That blocking high pressure system is keeping the rain away.

0:02:25 > 0:02:29Predicting how quickly those blocks are pushed away by the jet stream is

0:02:29 > 0:02:33very problematical for forecasters, and this is no exception.

0:02:33 > 0:02:35So the question is how long will the fine weather last?

0:02:35 > 0:02:38Well, certainly through much of the weekend, we think.

0:02:38 > 0:02:41A bit more cloud around for some Eastern areas on Saturday,

0:02:41 > 0:02:44keeping it cool here, bringing the sunshine further West again.

0:02:44 > 0:02:45It will feel quite pleasant.

0:02:45 > 0:02:48Same again on Sunday - nearly all of us dry.

0:02:48 > 0:02:52Notably breezy by then, across the more central and Southern areas,

0:02:52 > 0:02:54but in the sunshine it'll feel OK.

0:02:54 > 0:02:57By Monday, perhaps the hint of some showers

0:02:57 > 0:02:59pushing in across the North Sea into some Eastern counties,

0:02:59 > 0:03:00keeping it cooler here,

0:03:00 > 0:03:04but out West in the sunshine it'll feel very pleasant indeed.

0:03:04 > 0:03:07So the main theme is that it's a blocking high which

0:03:07 > 0:03:11dominates our weather, and that's the case into next week as well.

0:03:11 > 0:03:13So that battle between the high pressure

0:03:13 > 0:03:16and low pressure trying to push in from the South West.

0:03:16 > 0:03:20Now how quickly that high gives way will determine how quickly

0:03:20 > 0:03:22the rain arrives.

0:03:22 > 0:03:25Certainly a fine start next week, turning more unsettled,

0:03:25 > 0:03:29but I must stress the timing of that remains very uncertain.

0:03:29 > 0:03:31Join me for an update again tomorrow night.